Ottawan – at 20:24
I’d rate Ottawa as a ‘B’ due to the public transit usage, 20%. Social distancing is a moot point when you take that into consideration.
If there were a plan for cutting-edge mass immunization, that’d be the only thing that would save us. Unfortunately I haven’t heard of such a plan.
If TSHTF I will meet my fate with the rest of the huddled masses. I don’t have a bug out place, so I’m making my plans accordingly.
In the rating system used above, A = a city that can be saved, B = a city that cannot be saved, C = unsure
Here is my updated list, based in part on discussion from the Keeping the Grid Up threads:
Most saveable country:
Least saveable countries
Most saveable US states:
Least saveable US states:
Most saveable cities (in the US):
Least saveable cities (in the US):
I think you need to add the San Francisco, CA MSA to the least saveable list.
The 9 Bay Area Counties to be exact.
Population density, mass transit use, massive spread-out suburbs, minimal tillable land, net deficit on electricity production, heavily reliant on the Hetch Hetchy water system.
We just got an “F” for evacuation infrastructure in the event of a terrorist attack BTW.
Bird Guano – at 23:35
I will add SF to the list, next update.
Walrus- I think you have to consider that most of what you consider poor people are not sitting home waiting for the ‘guvmint’ to bail them out, nor are they stupid. Those folks, do, however get most of the ink(and airtime).
A far larger group IMHO have had to learn to ‘make do’ with less-thus making them more self reliant, more apt to have helping communities in place,and a lot more resilient than their more affluent counterparts. They are not surprised by adversity, they expect it. They have had practice doing without electricity for short periods of time, anyway, waiting for payday. They don’t have to look up recipes for rice and beans. They can deal with many medical problems without benefit of MDs and Rxs.
They are also doing an awful lot of the basic work that keeps society functioning. Post-pandemic I am going to need the guy who unloads the truck a lot more than I am going to need the Ad executive.
Unfortunately, in 21st century USA hard work and intelligence are not guarantees of economic success.
KC_Quiet, I agree with you. I guess my concerns are rather oddball. I fear the Government who will try and “help” me. I’m concerned that the ultraprepared “survivalist” types may be the least likely to survive. I have been concerned that the poor and unprepared are going to bear the brunt of a pandemic, but your points are good, they may fare better than the middle class, who rely on that weekly paycheck and the trips to the supermarket because they have had to get by with less. and are more resourceful.
My own preps are based on the assumption that I and my family are going on an immediate “army” diet so I get to lose some weight. I am not planning on having a generator or frozen foods. In fact, I am going “back to nature” as far as possible. The potatos are already growing, as are the tomaotos, egg plant and other vegetables. I’m currently trying to learn to make bread.
In other words, my preps are not based on “business as usual”, but on returning to a military style diet and lifestyle. No freezer, no cold beer, quick showers(if any), daily schedule determined by the sun, rationing and so on.
11 minutes ago. Power knocked out on all islands in Hawaii. Oahu has 95% out. Earthquake. At least its warm.
Monotreme – at 23:31 One of the large area (cities) that I would add would be the Las Vegas Valley, consisting of North Las Vegas, Las Vegas, and Henderson. The population of this close knit area is 1 million plus, and MOST ALL the food is shipped in by truck or train. The area does have their own electric generating stations (not from Hoover Dam, that goes mostly to Arizona and California), but the area relies on shipments of coal (lots of it), and natural gas. I live aobut75 miles up in the mountains, in a place called the Pahrump Valley, and this place can be written off also. Again all food comes by truck, and electric comes from somewhere in California. Fortuneately, I will be able to SIP extremely well for at least 2 years plus, depending on the number of people that arrive,,,,but not expecting any. I have well, plus hand pump, etc, but this area is going back to full time desert I suspect.
Attended a Avian Flu meeting put on by Inyo County , CA about 40 miles from me out in the desert, and the county health officer stated, when avian goes pandemic (and he expected it will but no timeline), that the people out in the desert in this are, WILL BE ON THEIR OWN, just like most places. Was an interesting meeting, very negative from a governmental standpoint.
anonymous – at 03:32 Did you read my mind???? My preps are two fold in nature. First the out front side for DW and Kiddies. They think business a usual. I have gone deeper and understand the problems we could be facing and have set it all up to go pure field survival at a drop of the hat. Just hope the transition will not be too hard on the family.
Updated list
Most saveable country:
Least saveable countries
Most saveable US states:
Least saveable US states:
Most saveable cities (in the US):
Least saveable cities (in the US):
Food wise I think that Hawii will be just fine. You can grow food year round, and they have the ocean as a powerful resource. Of course may have to have taro instead of wheat, but at least they grow their own coffee. :-) Pheonix area is another write off, IMHO. The water supply is way too dependant on electricity, and much processing.Phoenix alone is over 5 million, add Tempe, Mesa, and other surrounding cities, and you have a bunch of thirsty folks.And, if it holds off until summer, no way most folk can survive in 110 degree temps with no AC.Winter will be fine, you can get by without any heat source if necessary, but you`re still going to need water.
I’d add Philadelphia to probably least saveable. Also just failes the mass- evacuation eval.
Understand, while I don’t live in Philly, I work there and love the city. Huge amount of public transit needed to get vital workers back and forth. Was hit very hard in 1918. It’s hard to even think this, must less ‘say’ it.
cactus – at 21:12
I’m sure you’re right that food can be grown year round, but can enough food be grown to support the entire population? Hawaii will be truly on it’s own in a pandemic. When the population was low, this may not have been a problem, but the current population is over 1 million.
Arizona has a much better pandemic plan than most. As far as water goes, much of it is currently used for subsidized crops like cotton and for golf courses. Eliminate these uses and there will be alot more for people. I’m not sure about their power situation.
Hawaii as a state is so far over natural carrying capacity, it’s not funny.
Taro plantations and sugar cane are a thing of the past.
Agriculture is VERY limited to some fruit and vegetables, mostly grown for the restaurant industry.
EVERYTHING else is imported.
Most fruit and macadamia orchards, as well as pineapple (except for a small amount for the tourist trade) have all moved to the Philippines. Sugar cane cultivation is extinct.
Oahu is a complete write off unless they figure out how to import food and energy. 90 percent of the entire state population lives on Oahu.
Kauai and Niihau, and PARTS of the Big Island (Hilo side).. maybe IF they can grow food fast enough to keep from starving. Doubtful.
Oahu County and Maui County are unsupportable with their current population.
Hi Monotreme, A little off topic for a sec, but glad to see you invited walrus to find another site. I was amazed that the sarcasm dripping from my last post was completely lost on him.
Walrus 17:21 from other thread “…expressed myself better like Jplanner has. What I meant to say was what he said - it is not going to be healthy living in close proximity to low income people who are not motivated to look after themselves, but rely on other people and institutions for their welfare if we have a pandemic. I just made an assumption about who they probably vote for.”
Just want you and everyone to know that the above is NOT what I said….I did not say it wouldn’t be healthy to live near low income people NOR That they weren’t MOTIVATED to look after selves….I was sad for THEM that they couldn’t prep due to financial constraints, perhaps worried some for myself living nearby as a result..but I do not think they are not motivated to care for selves. Most poor people work HARD, at least here, it takes two or three minimum wage jobs to pay for rent in Boston. I lament their lack of means to prep…perhaps energy and time…but not Motivation like they are lazy.
Walrus your opinion is fine it’s just not the same as mine thats all so you were mistaken.
SOrry to bring this back to old thingy and off topic some, but important to me to be clear about this..thanks
sorry to yell with capitals, seemingly. IT makes my comment look more strident than I meant.
jplanner, fear not, I seriously doubt many people here were really paying much attention to walrus’ posts anyway, after the first couple. my opinion anyway.
I think the cities and states with the best chances are those with realistic planing and at the same time general public awareness.If we construct lists we would have to have a nationwide ranking system for these two categories and a third for the basic geographic challenges.With such a database one could come up with triage rankings. This would be a huge task to say the least.Here in Alabama planing is pathetic and public awareness is very low-not a good combination!The human factors are more important than the physical I`m afraid.
saveable countries did you notice that the Swiss have just ordered enough vaccine for their entire population and Kawait has enough Tamiflu for 110% of their population.
http://tinyurl.com/yhc6ry …U.S. study where people immunized with a vaccine made with a 1997 H5N1 virus showed a strong immune response when they were boosted last year with the 2004 Vietnam vaccine. ..
Updated list
Most saveable countries:
Least saveable countries
Most saveable US states:
Least saveable US states:
Most saveable cities (in the US):
Least saveable cities (in the US):
Reconscout – at 21:15
I think preparedness and geographic considerations will play a role in how well a state will do. Even though Alabama has not prepared, many rural communities might do OK. So, I’m not ready to write that state off, yet. OTOH, a small Northeastern state may do everthing in terms of prepping, but because it is in close proximity to many megacities that have not prepped it may still be overwhelmed.
It would be nice to have some kind of quantitative matrix to determine which cities/states have the best chances, but I think it would be hard to set up.
I suspect that TPTB will try hard to save DC. Depending on how bad the bug turns out to be, that effort may be futile, but there is a lot of federal government in DC, and they want that.
re: Reconscout @ 21:15 and Monotreme @ 00:34--I think it is true that AL has prepared relatively little, and I believe this is in part due to systemic, long-standing issues/shortfalls with the Alabama Department of Health. This argues against AL’s salvageability. Parts of AL also are within one hour of Atlanta, and this could be problematic. AL economic reliance on the poultry industry also potentially problematic. On the other hand, I agree with Monotreme that many rural AL areas may do relatively well, particularly in the more isolated north and northeast sections of the state. AL still has a lot of farm land, and maybe most importantly, an abundant supply of water in many areas.
LMWatBullRun – at 00:42 I suspect that TPTB will try hard to save DC. Depending on how bad the bug turns out to be, that effort may be futile, but there is a lot of federal government in DC, and they want that
The official backup seat of the federal government is in Denver, CO
Just an FYI.
Bird Guano – at 14:20
Did you know that Port Angeles WA is the only other “declared” federal city. (done by Lincoln as a back up capital) but as far as I know they don’t really have the structure for it.
Nope, I wasn’t aware. I didn’t think WA as a state existed in Lincoln’s time.
After 9–11 they sunk a HUGE amount of $$$ into infrastructure in both W VA (Raven Rock area) and into Denver.
Denver now has a backup Fed Reserve center, as well as a backup SCOTUS facility, Social Security, Communicaitons, etc.
I know they also put in some bare-bones congressional chambers in W. Virginia also shortly after 9–11 to insure continuity of the Legislative branch.
I wouldn’t write off Mobile, Alabama. It has the state docks as well as oil refineries, don’t they?. All rail stations go there. I think that city in Alabama will be saved by the governor. Eeads is at Brookley field . Brookley used to be an airforce base and Brookley is the place where Air force one lands when you know who wants to visit New Orleans. If the docks fail so will the top part of the state. After Katrina I know ciy police guarded the Shell and Chevron plants, so that area must be worth saving. Plus, Mobile is surrounded by water, freshwater fishing in the Delta and rivers, Gulf of Mexico, seafood industry. There city police are certified nationally and that’s rare, it proves they have the man power and put the money in so they could serve and protect. They are probably experts at diaster planning by now. Shoot write off every city but Mobile. I have some family there, but they aren’t prepping.
It comes down to a three legged stool:planning,public awareness and geographic situation.Putting togeter a matrix for comparison,however,would be a daunting task as Monotreme has said.Alabama`s geographic situation is not too bad so I don`t want to be too negative,
Bird Guano – at 14:20
The official backup seat of the federal government is in Denver, CO
Do you have a link for this? Average Concerned Mom has asked about this on the Keeping the Grid up thread. Thanks.
Leo7 - - - I’m in Mobile, Alabama (rural area) and there’s no-one on this forum better prepared than me. So, don’t write us all off just yet. I’m prepared to ‘stand-alone’ for two years.
Blam! Good to see you here. I have a different screen name on FR… I haven’t posted on this forum for a while ‘cause I was busy.
blam – at 23:58
I hope after this is all over, the sign entering Mobile won’t read, “Welcome to Mobile, Population 1.”
Blam- just how do you know theres no-one on this forum better prepared than you?
Monotreme and Bird Guano — I personally don’t need the link anymore. I thought you were saying that Aspec CO was the pandemic-specific backup seat of the federal government; I.E. they had gotten so far as to plan something specifically for a pandemic. I do recall seeing or reading something about having a backup in the event of nuclear attack on DC, etc. I can’t find a link for that but what the heck, good to at least believe it’s true.
I mean Denver CO.
Updated list
Most saveable countries:
Least saveable countries
Most saveable US states:
Least saveable US states:
Most saveable cities (in the US):
Least saveable cities (in the US):
I’m afraid I find this list of savable versus write off cities and locations as very morbid with a psuedo tinge of playing God.
moeb – at 15:33
Yes on both accounts.
However, I have detailed knowledge on what level of preparedness is going on in two cities. In one city, there are extremely serious preps going on, at every level. In the other, the most senior people are actively discouraging preparedness. Other Flu Wikians have observed very different levels of preparedness in different cities, regions. I contend that cities that prepare will, in general, fare better than cities that don’t. I also think that certain factors such as population density, access to fresh water, food and power will greatly affect the survival of people who live there.
One of the things people come here for is tips on how to increase their odds of survival. IMO, where you live my be the most important factor in determining whether you survive a very severe pandemic. So, I think this is a legitimate exercise.
However, if you disagree with anything on my list, let me know. I don’t claim omniscience.
well, I just can’t buy a difference between, Atlanta, Chicago and San Francisco as far as surviving a pandemic. I also take exception to writing California off (and I’m not even from there) IMO you’d be far more accurate to simply say… “If you live in ANY city over 250,000 and you refuse to relocate prior to a pandemic, EXPECT TO DIE
that’s far more credible given the circumstances, than cherry picking based on city planners who in all probability are prepping for a 1918 type event.
sighs.. and this:
Least saveable countries Somalia North Korea Iraq
what is this? our list of least favorite countries? of what possible purpose is listing these? and why not all those African countries with poor health systems? It’s ludicrous senor. One interesting thought is some third world countries might even fair better than their more modern neighbors due to the people living closer to the earth? it beats me but you are way way out on a limb listing just these three or
whatever. this list stuff and wishful thinking about the grid and word and more repeated words is boring and little more than mind games.. I tire of it and you should too.
I’m sorry, I shouldn’t let my emotions get the best of me. Waiting drives a person crazy or in my case, crazier. May I suggest your list reflect the more desirable locations to withstand a pandemic… (then again how desirable will these places be if outsiders flock there).
I wouldn’t write off any State or Country. Not only do you belittle the inhabitants, you paint the entire location with a broad stroke that can’t possible be based on reality. We don’t actually know what the reality will be do we?
and finally a small jab since I can’t resist that evil side in me… are you suggesting North Koreans, Iraqis and Somalians flee their country to come to where you live? (soft chuckle)
man are the threads a pain lately.. stuff all over the place. I wish we could erase it all and start fresh. but hey.. that’s just me :-)
Everyone’s opinion and ideas are welcome here on the Wiki, moeb, including your’s.
moeb —
I don’t know if anyone is “playing God” but I’ll tell you one thing — seeing the name of your city listed under the heading “least savable” by ANYONE has the effect of, shall we say, focusing the mind a bit; at least it has made me seriously question WHY Washington DC has (apparently) done no pandemic planning to speak of, and start to want some more answers sooner rather than later.
yea yea.. but are you moving?
moeb,
My list represents my opinion based on the facts, as I understand them. The three countries I list as lease saveable are ones I’m pretty sure are in bad shape. I have nothing against the inhabitants. There are many other countries that I suspect are doomed in the event of a severe pandemic, but I’m not sure yet. Some countries in Africa are doing some planning. Some countries in Africa have geographical advantages that may allow a significant percent of their population to survive. I’m just not sure which ones these are, yet. Also, please note that I did not put the US on the “most saveable” list. On the Grid thread, I think, I suggested that many migrants might try to get back to their villages rather than for influx into the (US) border states precisely because I agree that people who live close to the earth have a better chance than those who live in megacities.
I am not trying to belittle the people of, California, for example. I am very deliberately belittling the cretin who wrote their panflu plan. That imbecile has no clue whatsoever. I want to call attention to that. You may have missed this from previous posts, but I have ties to NYC. I very much want the people who live there to survive. But wishing won’t make it so. Their moronic health commissioner is on tape saying that he thinks a pandemic is unlikely. NYC recommends 3 days for supplies. The Health Comissioner is very deliberately advising against preps to other agencies in NYC. The media in NYC have given the citizens no clue as to the peril they are in. I actually think NYC could have been saved if serious planning had occured and food and other supplies had been prepositioned. But I cannot change what has happeend. The best I can do for the people of NYC is to let them know that they have been written off by their leaders. What they do with this information is up to them.
You’re wrong about the Grid thread. As a result of that thread, I’m more hopeful than I was that some regions will survive relatively intact. I hope these will be large regions. But even if it’s only a small city somewhere, that’s something to celebrate.
Don’t count Alabama out yet. Although we are not getting much information or planning from the state government, there are some of us attempting to prepare. We always have to do things for ourselves. I guess we are just used to that. It reminds me of that old popular song, “A country boy can survive”. We’ll see you on the other side of this.
Monotreme Your list seems to center on very large cities. Why not have small cities on the list. Like Hope, New Mexico (I just love the name)pop. 107 since they are in the middle of no place, its citizens are used to going miles and miles to stores and thus most have some reserves. Everyone knows each other and helps their neighbors, most locals never travel far, and there is no reason anyone traveling through there would ever stop.
The point is: why do you just pick really big cities as “saveable”? I just love to cheer for the underdog.
I have to explain myself yet again, and this time I will be direct. The people who live in the projects near me are not “low income” as in hard working poor people, they are no income , no job people, who live on welfare and have no interest in working. These are public housing apartments occupied by people living on welfare. The unemployment rate is so low here that anyone with at least one arm or leg is able to find work.
I see them every day because they have to walk past my house to get to the train station/ liquor store and so on. There are regular drug related suicides and deaths within two blocks of me and usually a police car in attendance at least once a day. I walked past one place today (8.00am) and there is a “party” going on in one apartment with a lot of drug induced screaming going on.
By the way, it’s great fun walking your dog past a the body of a suicide who decided he could fly out a window.
So no, I am not being snooty or uncharitable, or unkind. I am simply saying that it is occasionally unhealthy around here because of this and in a pandemic its going to be much worse because these guys have no respect for the law at the best of times.
DennisC – at 19:05
You’re right, small cities without ready-access to water and/or food will be doomed during a very severe pandemic. I have made this point myself on another thread. This is why I don’t think you can pick an arbitrary cut-off on how big a saveable city can be. For example, I think Seattle is relatively saveable even though it’s population is over 500,000. If I named every small city without it’s own water that was doomed, it would be a very long list.
Walrus – at 19:14
We all know living in an area with a high crime rate sucks. Not a news flash.
However, one gets the impression that you are more interested poor-bashing than discussing pandemic influenza. As I have suggested before, there are other forums where political expression is the point of the fourm. IMO, this is not the forum for discussing the lifestyle choices of your neighbors.
DennisC – at 19:05
I just realized I completely misread your post. I totally agree some small cities will do very well. Again, it is hard to list all of them or even to find them without detailed information. However, if you want to list some, I’ll be happy to add them to the list. Note, Aspen, CO, population 15,000 is on my list.
I was hoping that when I started this thread, all the wikians would rate their immediate local. Then we could compile characteristics that add to a cities survivability.
This is just off the cuff. Savability factors:
I forgot to add Health Facilities.
Oremus, I think there is a priority order to your savability factors. I would rate the “friendliness” issue (ie: Mutual trust and cooperation) as the absolute top priority because without it nothing else matters.
There is a management game played at MBA school in which you get to work a survival problem (ie you have crashed in the desert with five people, you have matches x gallons of water a map, what do you do? etc) first you do it as an individual, then you get together in groups of five or six and do it again….
When its complete, you compare notes the real purpose of the exercise shows itself when you discover that the worst group plan is better than any of the individual plans.
As for food, water, shelter, security, and everything else, its possible for groups to organise themselves to deal with almost anything. The real enemy, apart from the flu, is the potential for fear and mistrust to not only destroy opportunities to jury rig solutions to problems, but to destroy what little preparations we have already taken.
To me, being part of a community that has high levels of trust and cooperation is the number one survival prep, and I will be high tailing to such a place with family by sailboat when TSHTF.
Oremus and anonymous,
I agree with both of you. A sense of community is the most important intangible for survival of a city or town. Without that, there is no hope. However, there are other more tangible factors which Oremus has listed which are also very important.
Most saveable state: Alaska
Most saveable city: Anchorage
Monotreme et al-Ah, but any panflu virus has the stiletto of transmissibility to stick into any budding bonhomie of “mutual trust”. How do you know who “they” or their associates have been with recently? And has their quarantine really been maintained? The slip-ups don’t even have to be intentional.
One weak link and the whole “Kumbaya” goes down in flames.
This monster has us check-mated down every blind alley, and we were really only hoping for an open manhole or two.
Leaps of Faith will be absolutely necessary and half the time (or more) will end in disaster.
anonymous – at 19:26
A coutner-intuitive choice, but you may be right.
Medical Maven – at 20:33
I would expect most cooperation will occur between waves, not during. However, even during a local outbreak, there are things we can do to help our neighbors - shoveling snow, delivering care baskets, etc.
During the SARS outbreak, a paramedic in Canada got SARS and was sent home from the hospital while he still was quite weak. There was a big snow storm and neither he nor his wife had the strength to shovel it. Once they eaten all the food in the house, the wife called the neighbors asking for help. They had known them for many years and had hosted many back-yard barbecues. Not one of their neighbors was willing to help. They were too afraid. Finally, in desperation, she called her husband’s co-workers. A group of them came by shortly after, shoveled the snow, and left several bags of groceries.
It is rational to be afraid of being infected. However, it is not rational to fear shoveling snow or leaving food by someone’s door. I think it will be especially important to be nice to essential workers. Whatever we can do for them, we should. Without them, all the preps in world won’t do us any good.
IMHO, unless Aspen, Ft Wayne, Seattle, etal can produce basic needs for themselves, they will fall hard. Can these cities produce water, food, and power with NO outside assistance? For instance, do they have a chlorine plant with all needed chlorine ingredients available within that city? Do they have self sufficient agricultural capacity? Can Seattle produce it’s own power with no outside assistance?
Communities of 1918 were much more self sufficient. The JIT inter reliant society we have created is inevitably catastrophic.
Unless you are a Dick Proenneke sort (which I’m not), you’re hosed.
See the I, pencil thread for further consideration.
Monotreme at 20:55-We have talked at length about the possibility of one long rolling Wave. And also we have pondered what would be the signal that a Wave has ended. Otherwise I agree with you. There is prudence, and then there is irrationality. The Canada/SARS/Neighbors story that you related above was despicable and highly irrational.
Being informed and prepared gives you the strength and capability of doing some good. Otherwise, you are “flying blind”, and most people will not attempt that feat. And they will let their wildest fears play out.
But also, being informed can make you more cautious. That recent study on the airborne aspects of Influenza A viruses like H5N1 has tempered my altruistic plans.
Jumping Jack Flash – at 21:10
IMHO, unless Aspen, Ft Wayne, Seattle, etal can produce basic needs for themselves, they will fall hard.
Bascially, I agree. Some cities are stockpiling spare parts and food for essential workers. This might be enough for the short term. For the longer term, I think it’s possible that co-operative regions may develop which will consist of prepared cities that are able to ride out the first couple of months. There are truckers that carry extremely hazardous loads from one end of the country to the other. If they are prepared, I think some of them will be willing to move chlorine from one city to another during a pandemic. I once drove through Washington state from the east to the west. I saw mile after mile of wheat fields before reaching the coast where I gorged on all manner of seafood. Yeah, I think they’ve got enough agriculture. Here’s some hydroelectric info for the pacific northwest.
Medical Maven – at 21:15
Being informed and prepared gives you the strength and capability of doing some good. Otherwise, you are “flying blind”, and most people will not attempt that feat. And they will let their wildest fears play out.
This is a very important point. If public health authorities lie about how bad it could be, people will freak out all the more when they see dead bodies in the street. Rational fear will be replaced with blind panic. People are much more likely to cooperate in productive ways if they are given accurate information before the pandemic starts. If TPTB wait until after it starts, it will be very hard to get anyone to cooperate.
monotreme.
i do see the pacific northwest, niagara falls, st lawrence, tn valley, and hoover dam areas as the most survivable or at least reinhabitable due to natural delivery of hydro “fuel”. The facilities already exist, and they are not reliant upon fuel delivery. circa 1930′s.
Jumping Jack Flash – at 22:24
That’s a very valuable list you’ve just provided there.
I wouldn’t write California off as an entire state.
There are MANY areas of California that are rural enough to survive with limited impact.
80% of the population of CA lives on 2% of the land. Mustly urban and suburban.
Northern California above the wine country won’t even notice.
Neither will the coast away from LA or SF.
The Western Sierra Nevada foothills in California are rural and produce agriculture. They will do well.
Sacramento (state capitol) may also do ok because of proximity to energy, extensive inland water transportation network, and the fact it’s the state capitol.
Central California near San Luis Obispo won’t see much of an impact either.
So the least saveable are the Los Angeles basin (an artifically irrigated desert irrigated with northern california water delivered by electric pumps), and the San Francisco Metropolitin Statistical area consisting of 9 counties.
Also added to my least saveable list:
Tokyo Metro area, Japan (22 million inhabitants in an area the size of the San Francisco 9 county bay area) Yokohama, Japan Osaka, Japan Okinawa
Northern Japan, Southern Japan and parts far enough away from Tokyo may do ok.
Japan imports 90% of it’s energy and a LOT of it’s food supply.
You guys still seem to be stuck on the idea that food and water are going to be a major problem, and they very well might be - if you are expecting prepandemic service levels and availability. For example Monotreme mentioned “moving chlorine” for water purification.
So what if you have no chlorine? - Boil and filter the stuff that comes out of the tap, the well or from a bucket from the river.
It might also be useful for people in some communities to consider why they are located where they are in the first place, then have a look at where your city got food and water from “in the old days”. It may only be a history lesson, but it could be useful stuff to know in a bad pandemic.
For example, our water comes from reservoirs in the mountains and flows by gravity and siphons to header reservoirs around the city. Its controlled and managed by telemetry from a central location, and like most modern water systems, its highly resistant to damage. The electricity grid is pretty much the same, as is the gas grid and sewerage systems. But in any case, we can get by without too much trouble if service levels are degraded by a little rationing.
We lost our gas grid some years ago because of a refinery fire and we had no gas cooking or heating. The Walrus solution was to buy a coil of copper pipe and some chimney flue, connect it to the water heater and put a Coleman stove under it. Our neighbours had hot showers this way for two weeks as well. Whats needed is a little ingenuity and teamwork if there is a bad pandemic and an understanding that you are not trying to obtain pre pandemic service levels, just enough to sustain you all until the pandemic passes.
The communities I would fear for are such “semi artificial” places as Palm Springs which seem (at least to me) to require large amounts of electricity just to survive.
Monotreme,I wonder if your list of “most survivable”should not include Russia in the country catagory.Over on the Effect Measure website recently there was a listing of the tamiflu stockpiles of various countries.The list was only partial(it did not include Switzerland for instance)but I was surprised to note that Russia was the only one of 11 advanced countries which had enough of the drug for it`s entire population with some left over.Somebody over there has to be doing some serious planing and have been at it for some time.
Reconscout - at 09:09
It is a Russian virologist, as I remember, who actually came out and said last year or the year before that deaths from pandemic flu might number more than a billion. Sounds as if planners were listening. In the U.S., state and community planning lags because the gravest possibilities are not openly communicated and confronted.
Green Mom – at 01:55
“Blam- just how do you know theres no-one on this forum better prepared than you?”
LOL! I can say, from all that I have read on this forum, I seriously doubt anybody is better prepared than blam. Or more seasoned in “emergency” adjustment. I can think of a handful of “others” I would love to see on this forum, along with blam.
I think your forgetting about something. People are not going to set in place and starve. Millions of people will pour out of the cities if they lose water and food. I live in central pa and if you draw a 400 miles circle (a full tank of Gas)around my location there are at least 50 million? people within driving range. If even a very small percentage come my way my area is in touble. Think about how many people live within a couple of 100 miles of you.
Tuck57
According to the last census, Tuck57… over 5 million live in my “circle”… the circle of that TMC “triage.” They will swarm to those hospitals and triage sites. Then they will swarm “out”. The swarming will make last summmers hurricane evacs look pale. But, who am I to say anything… I’m not a doctor.
Tuck57 – at 10:35
Most people will not have a full tank of gas. Estimating on a half a tank (200 miles even though my car gets 650 miles on 10 gallons) I come up with about 800K here and only one international airport. Yes, I worry about “outsiders” trying to come and take over my property. Most locals will not greet interlopers as friends but invaders. The point here is that as you try to evaluate “saveablity” of a city, a city’s will to survive and what it is willing to do to retain its sovereign rights are important. Would they be willing to “burn their bridges” and blow their tunnels? And we are back to the “life boat problem”.
EnoughAlready – at 10:48 “swarm”
I think that many will try to swarm but there will be many impediments along the normal routes. Some rails will be torn up. Some roads will have cliffs bulldozed to limit traffic. People in large cities seem to focus on only one side of the equation- their leaving from their large city. However the other part of the equation is the “acceptance” of their migration and their invasion by the cities along their route. I would not at all be surprised that many small cities will limit access, destroy some routes, confiscate all fuels, block or destroy bridges and so on. In my rural area, many people have earth moving equipment and have told me they plan on using it to block the major routes if they see riots or pictures of dead bodies in the street in the nearby “larger towns” (here meaning any over 30K).
The point here is that many small cities will use whatever they have to limit the awarms. It is sad, but it is true. The choke points will be choked, the slash pit will be use as a mass grave site, the fuels will be confiscated, horses will be used to take food to their neighbors and so on. But then this is just the talk by “good old boys” at the coffee shop and feed stores. Be assured they will do what anything it takes to protect their land and family.
DennisC at 11:26-“Home field” advantage is a BIG advantage. I only see the military as being able to overcome it. Not even police from elsewhere could crack a good in-place defense from like-minded community members.
Every community everywhere has to solve their own problem. There will be no relief or succor elsewhere, only the road to “nowhere”.
DennisC – at 11:26 - I agree, and rightfully so. Additionally, I believe people will first swarm into areas that have potential resources. National Guard, large food banks, etc. If quarantines are established, it will be multifaceted… as seen on the TMC preparation guide. There will probably be an initial influx into cities. (I even see a more drastic “swarm” across the southern borders.) What follows, IMHO, will be as you describe. There will be an initial “rush” by some out of the cities, but it will take time for reality to sink in. Smaller population areas will most likely see very desperate people fleeing larger population areas. Honestly, I think that would happen between waves. But, what are we even talking about… it’s just the flu. And we are paranoid extremist with these Gone With The Wind and Grapes of Wrath exodus scenarios we are discussing. We are too technological for anything like that to happen “again.”
Medical Maven – at 11:50 -“Home field” advantage
Yes, one of the more interesting comments I heard (feed store talk) is that some will just pull out the cattle guards. They have such guards even on the state highways around here and they are deep. They figure that will slow “them” down enough to shoot the tires and radiators. My plan is just to sit and watch. I just know that I would not want to get some of those “good old boys” mad at me. Some of them seem to even enjoy planning such things.
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