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Forum: Mysterious Migratory Spread Slows and Does That Delay Panflu

24 October 2006

Medical Maven – at 09:08

Part of my calculations for a 95 per cent chance of panflu by the end of next year was contingent upon the continued linear expansion of High Path H5N1 to the rest of the world by migratory birds. Because it is partly a numbers game in order for the virus to find that unlucky combination in the right set of circumstances. It is also a matter of finding different species to mix with and different viruses to borrow from.

As it is, with Indonesia still bubbling and China burying what it finds, I still might have to decrease my prediction down to 50 per cent by the end of next year, if this SEEMING odd lack of spread continues. And that is not only because of the truncated “numbers game”, but also because there is no reason why H5N1 should not have kept spreading on into North and South America and through the rest of Africa. Maybe the virus is becoming less adaptable to migratory spread?

Or maybe it has spread, and we can’t detect it. But Dr. Nabarro in a recent interview seems to be surprised that the spread in Africa has not been pervasive. And I am surprised as he is.

And was the Prince Edward Island episode a fluke or was High Path H5N1 never there? But if it was there why aren’t we seeing more?

treyfish – at 09:28

Invisible government sky fence.Installed 3 monthes ago!Dr N is speaking too soon i believe.

Tom DVM – at 09:54

Medical Maven.

We all only have our life and professional experience to go on. What has occurred in the past six months and is occurring now is pretty much how I would have expected it to go…

…with nature and disease…quiet means nothing and being lulled by a ‘calm’ is very typical of pathogens.

In a sense we get to look into the box through a pin hole…at the moment there is a lot going on in many areas of the world…but there is even more going on that we can’t see at the pathogen level…

…it doesn’t care about winter and summer…and seasons…it moves in silence, beyond our comprehension…like ants in an ant colony, it is always moving.

In my opinion, based on my experience, H5N1 is silently going to produce all the mutations required for a full pandemic virus, it will wait until every expert calls the all-clear…and then it will pop-up and go SURPRISE, I’m still here!!!

In nature there is always a calm before the storm.

Tom DVM – at 09:55

The ‘if’ question has been answered…we just don’t no what imminent means in nature’s context.

The only real question to me is ‘how bad’…and we won’t be able to answer that until the pandemic starts.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 10:33

I think this question pops up everytime this virus gets in its quiet mood. I know I’m giving human chacteristics to this virus, but it makes it easier to understand. All I can say is when it comes out of its quiet mood, it doesn’t disappoint us. I’m not lookin g forward to its next active appearance. Are we just in the eye of the storm? Perhaps it’s the quiet before the storm. We will see soon enough. I truly hope this virus burns itself out. Until I actually see that happening, I will not hold my breath. gina

Medical Maven – at 10:40

I understand the “under the surface” qualities of viral evolution. But still I am stumped as to why we have not yet seen migratory bird die-offs in North America such as was reported (and seen) at Quing Hai Lake in May of 2005. It has been conjectured that the area is so vast up north that these die-offs could have been easily missed. Now that the birds are migrating south something should be seen, if High Path H5N1 has made it to North America.

mom11 – at 10:45

You know…Not everything, related to this virus has to be seen negatively….There could be some hope somewhere……Mabye you are right MM! Why didn’t this virus, just leap like the 1918 flu? Why is the H5 finding such a hard time at becoming H-H-H-H-H-H? Where were all the other previous bird die offs, prior to the past pandemics???? This virus is struggling…Not to say it won’t, but maybe it WON”T!

Tom DVM – at 12:15

Medical Maven. I expect to see H5N1 in migratory birds this fall but don’t forget, it has to be asymptomatic in them or they wouldn’t be flying in the first place. If it is asymptomatic in them, it won’t be seen clinically. Secondly, we have already seen sudden deaths this fall…one in British Columbia was supposedly due to mould in grain they (240) birds had eaten…Hogwash!!…and others are supposed to have died from Botulism because it is common in the fall…point is that we could have small isolated outbreaks and not know it.

Therefore, H5N1 could be here and we won’t see it until it shows up where we can’t miss it…in the much more susceptible poultry flocks…since that is a chance encounter, it may take a little longer to happen.

I recieved information last spring that a duckhunter who hunted each year in Western Canada, has a number of Chinese tags. Therefore, we know they are in the migratory routes…we just don’t know how long it took for them to get here. Obviously, it appears not to be one year…the jury is still out on the two to three year time period.

Jewel – at 12:23

Tom DVM-

I really enjoy reading your posts, you are an intelligent, no-nonsense kind of guy!!

Medical Maven – at 12:33

Tom DVM at 12:15-Thanks for your excellent review. Are we possibly seeing a cover-up starting from Prince Edward Island? Or is it that they aren’t digging that deep?

But if there were a cover-up, wouldn’t so many people know it that the truth would get out?

Or, like you said, maybe I am jumping the gun timewise here. For instance, we really don’t know how many minor die-offs preceded Quing Hai Lake.

mosaic – at 12:38

From Oct 20, Effect Measure. Title: “No news doesnt mean good news.”

“The migratory bird scenario for global spread has yet to materialize, possibly because wild birds are a minor part of the geographic spread which is mainly driven by human movements that bring infected birds from place to place.”

I personally dont know what the story is anymore. Believing the migratory bird scenerio, I fully expected HP H5N1 to have arrived in the Americas long ago. If it has, it’s not official. I guess we will have to wait a bit longer to see what develops.

Tom DVM – at 13:36

Medical Maven. I think Prince Edward Island Canada was incompetence not a cover-up. I am not sure whether it was high path H5N1 or not…I don’t think Dr. Niman had any evidence to be making the claims he did either.

I think the thing is that you have to be patient with nature. It takes ‘it’s sweet time’ to show you where it is going…and I don’t think H5N1 is nature’s fault…

H5N1 was a human folly…directly and indirectly.

Migratory birds are spreading it but we are doing an as good or better job in Asia. There is lots of underground movement of birds and meat products…products discounted by restriction always find a market somewhere…that’s how we ended up with BSE in North America (contaminated bone and blood meal was restricted from sale in Britain but not stopped from being exported at deeply discounted prices).

Things are going pretty much the way one would expect at this point. If all the experts say the danger is over…watch out!!

Jewel. Nice to meet you and Thanks.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 13:46

Don’t forget the Hush-Hush system is still up and running. The fact is we are really very clueless as to what is really happening. TPTB and the No Panic Rule are still hard at work. No government or country is prepared for a pandemic. From a governmental view, it would be easier to keep the masses calm since they know they have no control over AI. Governments are only going to release enough information to keep people like us off their backs. They are also well aware we can do nothing about it. We need more information! We will most likly never see. Okay…Next rant. gina

Thats Just Ducky – at 13:47

Medical Maven – at 12:33

I would not expect that HPAI will be announced in North America until the first human case is confirmed. This has been the case in other countries, as I recall, just don’t remember which one(s).

Thats Just Ducky – at 13:49

Hurricane Alley RN – at 13:46

I believe you have hit the nail on the head.

Urdar-Norway – at 19:26

dont forget that H5N1 actualy manged to spread via migratory birds form East Euorpe /Russia into Sentral Europe and scandnavia to just disapear like fog in the morning… where did it go? It was right there, in the eastern sea, a sea with plentifull of birdlife, and then nothing.. For me this tells me that the oriontologist was right all the time. Its poultry traffic that is the real spreader, and if it enters an area with poor vetrienarian services it becomes endemic. Since Europe has taken this very seriously the virus just dident seme to have a chance.

good for us. …..but.. the lack of avian flu means lack of pandemic knovlegde and interest. Media don´t give a damm anymore and everyone just laughs and say” what did i tell you, its was a hype, a media scare”.. sadly they will probably in the end be mistaken.. The pan dont need “western ground to start, it has plentifull off gueana pigs in asia and parts of former soviet union.

It also tells us that we can if we want to, eradicate the virus everyhvere, its just very very expensive, and i dont think the solution is to ban family breeding pf poultry (as the industry is probably trying to convince authorities to do)

Now.. when are you americans going to make a clear defintions differnce about birdflu and panflu? That online reasearch form in canada I was filling out is still pissing me off, since my answers must seem to be schitsofrenic… :-/

Medical Maven – at 19:38

Urdar-Norway at 19:26-I hope that you are correct and that the primary means of spread is “poultry traffic”, but if we can’t stop the “human traffic” what makes us think we can stop the “poultry traffic”?

It is all very mysterious as the title of my thread denotes. We are dealing with a ghost.

Jody – at 19:55

I am still keenly interested in the die off of eider ducks in Nunavut this summer. It was called an “unprecedented outbreak of avian cholera” by the Canadian Gov’t. The problem was, they had not tested any bird. The report of the day said that since the island where this occurred was unsavory with 2000 dead nesting ducks and their broods, and gulls picking their bones clean, that samples were going to have to wait until things were less unsavory this fall for people to go in and take samples of what was left. As you can imagine, if this was bird flu, all those gulls died, and they were eaten by foxes etc. Has anyone ever heard a follow-up to this?

Urdar-Norway – at 20:07

Jody, the reason I belive that H1N5 si not in N Amercas, is that to get there they have to pass Norway, and its a long flight. Not one single bird has been found here. And everyone has been looking. Next year maybe, but probably not this. If it happen It may be via a southern route, but if so the Latin Amercias will be hit first.

I realy dont think the wild birds are able to spread long enough. They dies before they gets to long, or get well and dont spread. Whats seems to be needed is that they share the job with poultry, Wild-tame-wild-tame…. Once its get into a chicken house its spreads to nearby water with manure, then the wildbirds get it and spread it some miles, over and over.. The maps shows this. the mixture of roads, farming and flyroutes. I read that the outbreak in Turkey was with chikens bought from a big farm, and that smugling was taking place..

Jody – at 20:44

Hi, Urdar-Norway: My grandmother was from Oslo. So how is the aurora these days? I do agree that the passing back and forth of the virus ensures its continuance, but I also have read of birds that circumnavigate the polar areas. Long distance flyers are a possibility in my mind.

Urdar-Norway – at 21:12

shit. I forgot the Beringstrete, thats wery close to Alaska and Asia..

(hmm.. where is that anlog atlas, I am sure I have prepped one…)

Urdar-Norway – at 21:45

Jody, The Aurora has not been seen yet, but when the autom rain is over I am looking forward to enjoy it without the streetlights hiding it, since I moved out of the city :), Are you preping bacalao ? it keeps well without frezzers. I allmost forgot about it, only cans and rice.. Now I will boy me some dried cod :D

If alaska and nothern canada is the most plausible rout, it may just be a small animals desaese. I dont think chikkenfarms are so tight up there, and I also think you have good vetrinararys, and good hygien in chicken facilities, maybe we will never have a problem with H1N5 in our regions?

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