From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Rumour of WHO Level 4

24 October 2006

Walrus – at 19:50

There is a suggestion (not yet confirmed) that WHO has just gone level 4. With respect, if it has perhapos it deserves its own thread?

ChuckEat 19:53

Ummm…. ok… so… now what?

DennisCat 19:54

just for reference here is the current (?) phase level: The WHO site:

http://tinyurl.com/9mvy8

The point being, if you are searching you may want to use the WHO term phase instead of level.

gardner – at 19:54

Maybe if it they have gone to 4. But have they gone to 4? Their website still says 3. How do we find out the facts?

Bird Guano – at 19:54

IF it’s confirmed, then it definitely deserves it’s own thread.

Please post links to confirmation.

There are certain parts of state’s pandemic response plans that trigger at WHO Level 4.

Medical Maven – at 19:55

Well, it would be damn embarrassing for us here at fluwiki if some outbreak got past our radar that was significant enough to break the logjam at WHO.

Anon_451 – at 19:56

Walrus. We have been here before. I saw it posted on the Rumors page and that is were it belongs until the official announcement. Even if they have made that announcement, it really does not change anything for the people here. We still need to watch and wait.

If it does happen then we may get some needed support from our local governments in helping get our communities ready for something we already know about.

In short, we wait and chill and have a glass of RWFK.

Tom DVM – at 19:57

Walrus.

Politics kept them from upgrading the risk when they should have…if this is true politics is making them change it now…

…It is just another political institution within a political institutuion.

The World Health Organization has lost moral authority…no one is listening to them anymore…no one cares…

…Dick, I know a real good place you can put that pandemic scale.

Medical Maven – at 20:00

Tom, you brought a smile to my face and riotous laugh from my lungs. (And I didn’t even imbibe this evening).

no name – at 20:00

Tom DVM

Does the sun shine there?

no name – at 20:01

Or is totally in the dark?

Bird Guano – at 20:02

Don’t panic.

By WHO’s OWN (old) definition, we’ve been at 4 for months.

It really doesn’t change a thing for US.

But it does trigger certain aspects of pandemic plans IF it indeed comes to pass.

I’m not holding my breath.

It’s a political decision. NOT a risk communication decision.

Tom DVM – at 20:02

MM. Thanks. /:0)

no name. You got it!!

DennisCat 20:04

ChuckE – at 19:53 “now what”

you can see what WHO plans at various levels, phases, at: WHO global influenza preparedness plan

http://tinyurl.com/9fflb

Betty – at 20:07

Walrus…who “suggested” this? (no pun intended). I know it doesn’t change where we are with this, as I believe we have been at 4 for a long time, but it does make me take notice.

crfullmoon – at 20:08

Yawn; G’night folks.

Effect Measure

Bird Guano – at 20:18

crfullmoon – at 20:08 Yawn; G’night folks.

Effect Measure


LOL, sounds like WHO is playing catch-up with the rest of the scientific community, and having their own “adjustment reaction”.

Pixie – at 21:03

The Effect Measure piece was written in Sept., 2005 - no new news there.

anon_22 – at 21:04

Medical Maven – at 19:55

Well, it would be damn embarrassing for us here at fluwiki if some outbreak got past our radar that was significant enough to break the logjam at WHO.

THAT was exactly what I was thinking.

Shows my where my priority lies… or maybe loyalty as well?

LOL

Influentia2 – at 21:21

Anon_22 and MM

Well, it would be damn embarrassing for us here at fluwiki if some outbreak got past our radar that was significant enough to break the logjam at WHO.

_______________________________________________________________

I may end up eating crow(think I read something about that one time on another thread) but I can’t believe anything got past us.(inflated opinion of our FW news hunting skills on my part perhaps:)If “it” was never fully disclosed to begin with, that is another story. I think we have searched and dissected and speculated on just about everything that is out there to find. If this rumor is true maybe WHO is just catching up to the rest of us, but it probably is all political anyway.

Just my humble two cents that I should have kept to myself probably. We will just have to wait and see. This rumor was around this summer too.

Tom DVM You crack me up. Keep up what you do here, I really enjoy reading your posts. I can usually find something you say to laugh about and Lord knows I need a laugh once in a while. We all do here.

enza – at 21:32

Medical Maven – at 19:55

Well, it would be damn embarrassing for us here at fluwiki if some outbreak got past our radar that was significant enough to break the logjam at WHO

It could happen; we have a hard time reaching consensous. The ‘tin foil hat’ folks and the ‘perpetual skeptics’ hardly agree. I have seen potentially important threads dissolve into arguments between the two camps. Discourse is good and we should be careful of misinformation because we have a high standard to maintain —esp now that we have the blessings of the CDC ;-) However, if are to get the ‘early worm scoop’ we need to consider that it may start as ‘rumour’. Just my $0.02c

Leo7 – at 21:33

All: I read the rumors thread and I wouldn’t bet the people in New Mexico, both locals, got a jump on a WHO decision. No way. The news mining here is incredible and wouldn’t have missed a whiff. It’s a fluke.

DennisCat 21:37

Leo7 – at 21:33 “people in New Mexico”

and some of us here are from NM. You might be suprised at what goes through places like Los Alamos. After all they are sitting on a lot of sequences.

enza – at 21:40

Tom DVM

That quote may be the best I’ve ever heard.

I am rof laughing my tail feathers off. I needed a laugh this evening. Had to do a presentation to a really tough crowd today, it wasn’t until a full length presentation and about 2/3 way through our little TTX that I saw the lights coming on..

Grace RN – at 21:55

I’ll bet 2 bottles of my BBRWFK that we’d be at level 5.9738671 by the time the WHO announced we’re at level 4.

Leo7 – at 21:58

Dennis C:

I didn’t mean it as a slur. I meant it as two locals-how would they be in the know about the WHO’s plan when it’s not even on the web site? I thought at first a WHO speaker was present till I read the thread.

 As for the sequences, I’m betting a hundred years from now another scientist will dig them up and write a book about how “we knew it was coming and we didn’t prepare”.  The next thing that happens to the author is overnight he becomes a conspiracy theorist and is kicked out of academia.  History is a circle afterall.
Jane – at 22:34

Very interesting that WHO doesn’t consider any communication with the public until declaration of phase 5-BAM-expect travel restrictions and shortages of basic commodities-good luck! I know they’re concerned with health issues, but starving isn’t exactly healthful. Why haven’t they directed governments to warn the people to prepare? They are specific enough with other details.

Siam – at 22:58

Maybe they have already and we aren’t hearing about it. Just a thought.

Okieman – at 22:59

Please see the “Lookout Post for Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia” thread. If the WHO has gone Level 4, could this be the reason? The timing is interesting to say the least.

AzNewBeat 23:03
 Leo 7-- not only were “they” not locals but there was also a member of the CDC at that meeting as well. and he didn’t debunk their claim. As for NM as far as I know they are the only state with county’s that are actively getting the community as a whole involved from teaching in the schools how to treat minor illness and distancing practice to sending out prep lists to homes either through school children and other flyers telling people to prep for 6 months or better. can your state say the same???

I’m sorry if my making a statement on the rumors site upset things here, but i did state that the WHO’s site had not been changed. I did look there before I posted, I just thought it was intresting but not something I myself could for sure confirm. I posted in the hope of others that are involved in various groups could maybe confirm.

Spirit in the Wind – at 23:16

AzNewBe, making statement on the rumors thread about a rumor is perfectly fine. You didn’t do anything to feel sorry for. Keep posting what you hear. The office grapevine often has the scoop long before the offical announcements, and fluwiki rumor theads are no different.

Tom DVM – at 23:22

Maybe all of the concerns voiced in the threads about India, Indonesia and that other country that has slipped my mind at the moment, weren’t as farfetched as some might have thought.

If nothing else…and there is of course probably something else…you have proved, beyond a shadow of a doubt that a pandemic could begin disguised as something else and be gone before anyone even noticed it wasn’t Dengue etc.

I can only thank those that spent so many hours on those threads…you should be proud of the results.

anonymous – at 23:33

Bird Guano – at 20:02 By WHO’s OWN (old) definition, we’ve been at 4 for months.

Yup. So in “dog years,” WHO phase 4 is actually phase 5, no?

anonymous – at 23:33

That was me. Cookies off.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 23:33

Does anyone here have any idea why hospitals in India are setting up isolation wards for dengue fever? Got this from the India thread. gina

Edna Mode – at 23:35

Let’s try this again. That was me at 23:33.

Newsie – at 23:48

Interesting stuff. The WHO has been operating at a declared 3 for some time when it should have been 4. Now that they are at declared 4 should we assume it really is a 5?

enza – at 23:51

Gina, other HCWs:

what is the primary objevtive of an isolation ward?

enza – at 23:52

objective…sorry.

witness – at 23:52

Hey Tom DVM - Your thankyou brought a smile to my face.Much needed as a neighbors dog killed a pet chicken of mine today that had 9 little chicks to raise.I just did a news search to try and take my mind off things and found some things to post.Again thankyou.

Goju – at 23:55

When I met with Dr. nabbarro he said the UN asked WHO to go to 4 months ago. They refused. he said they were correct to refuse.

startled – at 23:55

Can someone please retitle this damn thread?

Anon_451 – at 23:57

AzNewBe – at 23:03 I took it exactly as you posted it. Something that you heard from a source you trusted but could not confirm. Like TOM DVM I feel if they do go to 4 it will be late on a Friday after the New York markets close so as to give it time to sink in and not set the markets off.

You did good and for that I thank you.

25 October 2006

blam – at 00:28

Who comes here to find out what’s happening, lol.

Bird Guano – at 00:38

The fact that WHO is always behind the curve is probably why my pucker factor is so high at the momenti.

If they do indeed confirm 4, then in my mind they just declared a 5, and that WILL trigger some immediate action steps on my part.

Not panic. Just additional IMMEDIATE action steps having to do with closer information scrutiny and a top off to the top off of preps.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 00:48

Enza @ 23:51 - An isolation ward should not be required since dengue fever is not spread h2h. Dengue fever is a mosquito born virus. If the doctors are worried about the immune system being compromised, then these patients need to be in isolation rooms not wards. Could something else be occurring? Are they testing for h5n1? gina

Bird Guano – at 00:52

Hawaii had an outbreak of Dengue a few years ago.

I was there for most of it.

They did NOT set up isolation wards.

enza – at 01:02

There is a comment on the India thread associating isolation and moqsuito nets. I think those are two completly differt things. The mosquito nets I understand—I have lived in the tropics. The isolation wards denote h2h to me, but of what?

gharris – at 01:02

The Reveres posted this on Effect Measure A YEAR AGO!! Monday, September 05, 2005 Thai newspaper: pandemic phase 4?

The Nation, a national newspaper in Thailand, is quoting Dr Kamnuan Ungchusak, the director of Thailand’s Disease Control Department, Bureau of Epidemiology, as saying the bird flu virus has changed in a way as to alter the pandemic disease status from WHO’s phase 3 (“Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact”) to phase 4 (“Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans”).

“It’s apparent to us insiders that [the virus] has already moved from phase 3 to phase 4 [in terms of the World Health Organisations’pandemic alert levels],” said Dr Kamnuan Ungchusak whose work on human-to-human H5N1 strain of avian flu was published in the New England Journal of Medicine in January.

Reports of the infection spreading among humans in four countries including Cambodia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam have suggested to scientists that the virus has become more pathogenic than ever, the doctor said.

“The virus remains virulent enough to sicken or kill another victim who is in close contact with the infected person, said Kamnuan who is the director of the Disease Control Department’s Beureau of Epidemiology.

Reports of human-to-human infection have been most recently documented in a cluster of infections in Indonesia, he said, adding that all of the infected people were in the same family and had not been in contact with any poultry or other sources of disease, aside from infected family members. Dr. Kamnuan is indeed a “flu insider,” having reported the first widely accepted case of human to human transmission in the medical literature. The Nation records him as deploring his government’s continued insistence that human to human transmission has not been demonstrated, characterizing it as “false information.”

Thailand has been more diligent of late in surveillance and prompt reporting of poultry infections to the OIE (the international agency that keeps track of animal disease outbreaks). But they need to face the facts they report. Whether this is obfuscation to avoid alarming their citizenry or just plain denial is unclear, but Dr. Kamnuan is right on the mark here.

This virus is Hurricane Katrina a thousand times over.

Bird Guano – at 01:15

And instead of following their own guidelines, WHO chose to re-write their phase descriptions to avoid raising the level.

I think that which was written in 2005, is just as valid today.

I would be surprised if WHO raised the pandemic level to 4.

It’s politically distasteful to them.

johnO – at 05:00

This has gone on for 1/2 a day, is there actually any evidence they’ve gone to level 4??? What was the source of this report?

Bronco Bill – at 06:02

So far, unless someone comes up with a link showing for a fact that WHO raised the alert level, this whole thing is nothing more than a rumor. Whether or not we really should be at phase 4, WHO hasn’t officially raised the level.

crfullmoon – at 06:36

Choking on my coffee laughing; I really hope some local official in the next few days quotes “WHO’s at Phase 3″ to me, or, “We only act as the WHO phases go up” just so I can say, You didn’t want “the public” to know, because of “panic” (economic/political burnt toast?); ever occur to you the WHO wasn’t telling you what’s going on, either?

All the “speak with one voice; stay on message” stuff just means we get the lowest common denominator, which in real life can mean people fail to learn from history, again, and more lives are lost where history is going to say, Why didn’t they act to mitigate that?

WHO phases, (actuary tables, probability estimates, or whatever it is some look to); that is not reality.

Reality is outdoors, from the microscopic to space-telescope level, from the bottoms of our own oceans we can’t find with both hands and a flashlight, to all sorts of “unknown unknowns”, and, an endless supply of human ignorance, error, greed, hubris, stupidity, bad government, short-sightedness, whatever.

Look at it this way; it’s not a contest to be the first to know when they get around to raising the level; probably they haven’t been at 3 since the Nov.2005 date on the chart, right? Or they’d have agreed and updated the date, at least. Got it covered both ways; not exactly lying, just rewriting the phase definitions, and, unplugging the phase lights too many officials assumed (still assume?) they could hang their plans on.

Really wish in that recent article the WHO released, besides saying the world isn’t ready and needs a vaccine program push, that they had said more about community and individual preparedness to cope 1918-style should already be underway, because pandemic could happen at any moment in the next 3 to 5 years it would take to crank up more non-egg-based vaccines, and, enough manufacturing plants to make them.

The facts about who is sick on the planet and with what are the kind of “facts” to care about, not whether WHO bureaucrats have finally dusted the cobwebs off their phase page.

Startled – at 23:55, you’re right; WHO Level 4 Rumors would title better wouldn’t it?

Chesapeake – at 07:47

Does this thread qualify for the MisInformation Hall of Shame?

Feather Pillow – at 07:58

Wasn’t there a new committee at WHO formed about a month ago with big names whose purpose would be to meet and discuss the need (if necessary) to change the phase level? As I recall, the committee would make recommendations and then it would be up to the head honcho to actually change it. Perhaps there are rumors at WHO as well that leadked out, but nothing official. Any word as to whether or not the committee has been called together?

Green Mom – at 08:13

AzNewBE- May I ask- are you new to the Wiki? I’m going by your nickname. In case you are, please please, keep reporting any rumours you may hear. The folks here are ticked off at the WHO-not at you. Thanks for the info.

Everyone-A reminder, I think is in order-We are all irritated with the Who and we are all stressed by the thought of Pandemic, However-if you read this thread through the eyes of someone who hasn’t posted much before, there is a very strong Cassandra Tone about it.

Green Mom – at 08:26

Sorry, I accidently hit post before I was through. I’m having feline displacement complications this morning- I can’t keep my cat off my keyboard

Anyway the whole point of the Wiki is looking for and making others aware of very bad news. Lets be carefull of what we say AND HOW WE AY IT to those who (in good faith, not spammers) are bringing us the bad news.

Okieman – at 08:35

Hello Green Mom,

Just had to look up the definition of Cassandra. I have heard the term numerous times but never chased down the meaning. I find it interesting that it derives from a prophetess that supposedly gave true prophecies to the city and king of Troy but was doomed to never be believed. Apropos? Here is a brief definition. It is explained more indepth on the link provided.

Greek Mythology. A daughter of Priam, the king of Troy, endowed with the gift of prophecy but fated by Apollo never to be believed.

One that utters unheeded prophecies.

http://www.answers.com/topic/cassandra

cottontop – at 08:44

I for one am happy for the lull in the news, and this doesn’t really get my PPF up. My brain is taking a break, and so am I, catching up on some much needed stuff. Can’t believe how slooow the news has been this week. Is anybody else using this “down time” for catching up?

Snowhound1 – at 09:08

cottontop…yep. :)

JWB – at 09:09

Last week, I suggested (on the India or Indonesia thread?),that we may have a WHO leak soon.

Now I thinking they may even float a trial balloon leak to gauge the reaction. WHO knows? (Pun intended).

cottontop – at 09:12

JWB- could that mean they are serious about raising the alert?

Commonground – at 09:12

cottontop - yes Ma’am. We sold our home last night - so now instead of moving twice, I have to have everything ready for the movers on December 2nd. Ought to be interesting what happens with this Phase 4 rumor. I’ve very excited and happy with my new adventure. Glad there is no news.

Pixie – at 09:14

Congrats Commonground!

Well, you know we told them to put all news and phase changes on hold until your move was over. It was the least we could do.

Chesapeake – at 09:17

Green Mom, I don’t think anyone said or did anything wrong to AZNewBe, and I don’t think she is a new poster. She posted her rumor where it should have been posted. The problem is this threads title…maybe it should have had a question mark after it.

NJ Jeeper – at 09:19

Could the moderators put a ? after the title of this thread please? It is sort misleading until you read the details and no way to wake up.

cottontop – at 09:24

Congrats also, Commonground. Hope the weather holds out for you, and that the news will stay on hold until your settled. I’m still looking for someone going south, so I can hitch a ride!! A snowbird I ain’t.

Commonground – at 10:18

cottontop & pixie, Thanks so much for the congrats. Right now I’ve got about 5 weeks till I’m moved. Even if the SHTF, I think I could make it work somehow? Cottontop, I don’t think the news will stay on hold till I’m settled. Isn’t that a shame? Wish I didn’t feel that way…..but I do. I don’t think the WHO is going to change the phase. I would be surprised if they did. Title is misleading.

cottontop – at 10:28

Commonground-

Put on some ABBA and relaaaaaaaaax! You deserve it.

Closed and Redirected - Bronco Bill – at 10:53

I’m closing this thread and directing all y’all’s attention to the new New Rumors VIII thread. I’ve copied the opening post from this thread to that one.

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