I read the article in which Nebarro sp? sort of indicates that an immediate threat no longer exists? Do you think he believes the pandemic will not happen this year. Do you think it is just the way the author wrote the story?
yup.
I read it as “that’s why the pandemic didn’t already start last time” - with perhaps some encouraging words to governments (rather than say in public they aren’t doing a good enough job, and where are the sequences??) to keep trying.
Is there already a thread with a link, in the news (or, the misinformation hall; If that was all the article title said, I wouldn’t want the public to glance at the headline and think they’re off the -pandemic- hook now)
How much testing of humans and mammals and birds do you suppose is being done on the ground in Africa? I don’t think “enough”, given all the other problems. And we know people around Asia still wait a long time before going to doctors/hopsital, still smuggle, still mix all sorts of contact with wild/domestic mammals, ect. (People here in the US do too, for that matter, as we’ll see if we get a high-path strain here.)
Found this dated Oct. 26, 2006
…”the rate of human death is still distressingly high, with Indonesia increasingly becoming the country which causes all of us… very great concern “ David Nabarro, the UN’s coordinator for bird flu told reporters in New York.”…
…”Dr. Nabarro, who has just returned from a fact-finding trip to Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia and Myanmar, said in order to deal with such a long-term problem, … it will mean changes to commercial bird rearing and also better preparedness to deal with outbreaks.”
…” still there’s such a lot to be done.”…
… but still the amount of viral outbreaks in 2006 were many greater than any previous year,” Nabarro added.
However, experts fear that the H5N1 virus could mutate, gaining the ability to pass from person to person and in a worst case scenario unleashing a deadly human pandemic. Dr. Nabarro warned that it will remain a “major animal health issue” for years.
“We think it’s going to stay that way for five years perhaps 10 years to come because the virus is highly pathogenic yet at the same time can seem to survive in certain communities of birds without symptoms… and secondly it does seem to be spread by a combination of wild birds and trade.”
Hi prepmaniac Excellent question.
We have gone through several waves of apprehension by officials followed by waves of spin in the past twelve months.
My interpretation of the latest incarnations would be that you can only look at preparations for so long before you throw your hands in the air in frustration.
First, antivirals were the magic pill…they didn’t work. Then vaccines were going to fix the problem…they don’t work either. Then we get down to layers of infrastructure, food supplies, hydro-electricity, water supplies etc. etc. etc.
No wonder they would be frustrated…this is a catastrophic event that other than an asteroid hitting the earth, would be hard to repeat.
Now, faced with the realities, authorities are gambling that it won’t happen at all…it will be a near miss. They have one piece of evidence to base the conclusion on…it hasn’t happened yet. We don’t know enough about infuenza to conclude much else.
I think they are wrong…H5N1 is behaving exactly as I expected that it would…it is right on track to produce a pandemic…it will produce a pandemic…it is a question of timing.
Although I think it will occur in the next six months, I have no concrete evidence either.
And it would sure be nice, if we were wrong,
but, if the officials who say “Prep for two weeks, you and yours’ll probably be ok”, or “If you get sick, you’ll get better and be right back to work” are wrong,
the impact of that is too high to risk.
TomDVM- we need you on WHO.
In reguards to frustration, that’s what I’m feeling, as well as my family. The main issue for us at the moment is daughter and school. Because we have no timeline to go by, and lack of information from our state on prepardness, and the school as well, we are trying to have some sort of guideline to decide when and if we should take her out of school. We’re just frustrated at this point. I’m for jumping the gun, but when is early, too early? Hubby wants to wait until reports of human cases start to appear, and of course it’s round and round. Daughter is all for “jumping the gun.” She would be.
All, I find it absolutely strange that it hasn’t taken off in Africa either. The people are in the weakest state in the world. AIDS, HIV, Polio, etc, famine. It’s hard to suspect it’s coming here, when it’s not there. What is the explanation? Anyone care to speculate?
Leo7 – at 12:03 I have wondered too if there haven’t been small family clusters in Africa that burnt out, just as we have seen in Indonesia. The problem with Africa is that they really do not have much of a public health surveillance system to catch any of these cases in a timely manner. When someone dies, they are buried very quickly without any type of testing to determine the cause of death. There is very little medical treatment for health problems, especially among the poor. IMHO, I do not think we would see the human cases in Africa until it was out of control just because there are so many other diseases to mask the initial cases.
Leo7 : It is not possible to give a rational explanation either way. Let me just cite an example of another killer disease, yellow fever. Endemic in South America and Africa, it does not occur anywhere in Asia. The mosquito vector, Aedes, is present, the “right” ecological conditions are present, and there must certainly have been numerous infected people travelling from endemic areas to South Asia for example to have jump-started the disease cycle. But it has never happened (so far).
Albert excellent analysis.
Nature is not rational…or at least rational using human parameters.
cottontop. Thanks.
Well we have the right vector for Dengue in my back yard and the south. But most of the Dengue cases here in the states have been travelers. Yet you have it in the Carribean, Central America and Mexico.I think there have been about 2000 cases of Dengue in the states since 1970′s. Travelers mostly.