1918 society did not rely very much on an electric power grid for existance.
The Romans were smart enough to realize the need for clean water for their empire to function. That’s why they built a vast GRAVITY fed aqueduct system.
IMO, today’s modern society has painted itself way to far into a corner with our electric powered water works and other critical infrastructure.
Given a total failure of the power grid and hence no water, how long do you think before the majority of population dies of thirst or hunger? I’m thinking 10 days - tops.
I personally think the vast majority of deaths in a pandemic will be collatoral, rather than from flu itself.
also people did not work in sealed high rises…or a man made petri dish as i see them
I fear for large populations in desert areas of the developed world that depend on power to provide water. It could be catastrophic. Typhoid elsewhere could be just as bad.
It’s not just desert areas. Think about 7 million thirsty New Yorkers drinking out of the Hudson River. The last time I was in New York (which is by no means a desert area) the Hudson River looked a little murky. Same goes for every other city in the modern world.
Jumping Jack Flash at 21:33: Real quick there would be a winnowing of that portion of the population who could not withstand waterborne diseases. (There wouldn’t be enough crude filters and bleach even if most of the thirsty knew what to do). Boiling the water would help, but that would mean a lot of dangerous ad hoc fires. And the carcinogens, well that would be a longterm worry, unless sewage starts spilling into the water supply due to power loss.
This is why Confused Exec is so worried. The Grid HAS to stay up. Period.
People had larger families, more children. They were more used to losing one or two to illnesses. Families today will find that extremely traumatic and have almost no reference experience for coping.
Jumping Jack Flash – at 21:33 “Think about 7 million thirsty New Yorkers drinking out of the Hudson River.”
I remember a scene from a TV series when Michael J. Fox and another actor had to jump into the Hudson as part of the story line- they had to take antibiotics before and after the scene.
Good reason to keep a gallon of plain bleach around….
Most people did not travel like we do today. Other than those in the military a great percentage of people never traveled out of their oun county, and that was in the developed countries. Today over 10,000,000 cross international borders every single day and many do so making multiple connecting flights. I don’t think we have any idea how quickly this may spread across the planet and individual countries once it gets going.
Ask any of our political leaders and they will tell you that this is just a Health problem. Nothing to see here HCW’s have it under control. New vaccinees coming on line every day vote for me all is ok.
In 1918 most folks had gardens even in New York City. Water was not the big an issue as we had not polluted everything in sight yet. SIP was easier in that most people did not spend a lot of time with other people as they worked on the farms. Factorys were hard hit but people could get by with out them. Everyone canned food in the summer and fall for the winter months. Today almost noone cans anything. When this happens we are in for a real mess. Starting to stock up on Charcoal and will add some dutch ovens for cooking, once my propane runs out.
People in 1918 had vey few sources of information. Newspapers, telegrams, and perhaps mail from distant family. Radio was in its infancy. What news there was was limited due to WWI and fears of hurting morale. People had no way of knowing what was going on in other parts of the country and world without newspapers reporting on it.
Today we have multiple sources of information available certainly before and probably to some extent during a pandemic. The Internet is the biggie of course. Blogs, newsfilters, official and semi-official sources. (The fluwikie!) Personal email and neighborhood listservs. Also what, a godzillion TV channels, cable, satellite. Personal phone calls and school or work related phone trees. Radio news and call in talk shows.
That’s a big difference.
ACA at 23:03-“a big difference” and a two-edged sword.
EOD: I’m with ya.
I’ve “heard” the flu will circle the globe in 3 to 6 weeks. That was probably the case in 1918 considering most if not all international travel was by ship. For the past 88 years we have been painting ourselves furter and further into a technological corner.
It is borderline comical - mankind has trapped itself in it’s own technology.
It is always an interesting mental exercise to figure out what can go wrong and plan for it. That’s what we do here. When this goes pandemic I have no doubt that there will be some major problems, especially in the large coastal cities. However, and I can only speak about American’s here, we are from a pioneer stock. Socio-biology is something I give a lot of thought to. Many of us come from people that had the courage and fortitude to come here and build a country. They had to battle all kinds of hazards, and that made them strong. While I think those ancestors may roll over in their graves to see how “soft” we’ve become I also believe that those same characteristics get passed on just as surely as hair and eye color. Those in my own family that didn’t come here (last immigrant was 1726), and were already here, the Native American, had the same survival instinct.
I think we’ll lose many, many people. But those of us that are preparing will have gained the knowledge and skills to be part of the solution instead of part of the problem. Don’t cut yourselves short. You are amazing people, future leaders…some even current leaders. I have been so impressed with the brain power, motivation, and problem solving skill I’ve read here…you are what gives me hope. Nature will have her “spring cleaning”, she always does. It will be hard, and very sad to live through. But other generations have done it, and so can we. We are not above nature. We like to think we are…but we aren’t.
Orlandopreppie – at 23:26 - tks - very inspirational speech.
Unfortunately, inspirational speeches won’t do much to quench the thirst of 99.99% of the population that has no water (or food)
No, but I can use my speach to teach people how to collect the rainwater to quench their thirst. I live in Florida. I can only help so many. If we get defeatist now, we’re screwed.
I think many people would survive longer than 10 days. I suppose a lot depends on where you live. Out here in California. There are plenty of swimming pools. One pool could keep everyone on the block alive for more than 10 days. On my block there are 3 homes with pools within a 200 foot radius. I just prefer to not have to beg for pool water so I have over 300 gal. of clean water. In regard to food, you loose about a pound a day when you fast. So you can fast until such time that your body does not have available fat and protein to feed on, then organs start to fail. I bet most American adults could part with 20 to 30 pounds without risk of organ failure. I fasted for 5 days once and felt fine (piece of cake). I think a lot of people who have never even gone 2 days without food would think they were starving. People wouldn’t like it but most would survive past the 10 day mark on water alone.
When I read this thread I think I can get some idea of why Melanie said the Reveres weren’t personally prepping in another thread. Imagine a city in the southwestern US that imports 85% of it’s water, with a mediterranean climate and so very little rain in the summer. A few suburbs may have a pool for every other house, most of the population of the city is wall to wall condos/apartments. Heating is not a problem, but if the electricity fails for long the water stops running, even if the county reservoirs are full. A few handfuls of individuals who have the personal budget and the living space to store food and water for months, and the luxury of a greenbelt about their house for rainwater tarps and a garden once the winter rains come won’t make a big difference in the larger scheme of things. The majority of individuals in the city just can’t possibly prepare for a possible scenario with little to no water service and no rain for 6 months and 90–100+ degree temperatures(hey, at least it’s a dry heat)in the heat of the summer.
When you consider such a possibility, comparing the return that may come from getting individuals to prepare, and getting the established goverment and utilities to at least have a plan for worse case scenarios, shows how much greater return you get if you can successfully get the governments and utilities prepared.
There was also a greater interest in helping others, pitching in, doing whatever needed to be done. Today’s society is very self-centered and selfish. Think of the HCW and volunteers who tried to work during 1918 - peoeple literally dropping like flies around them but they kept on going as best they could. How many HCW will bail if thshtf now? Or those who risked exporesure by helping to bury the dead? How many neighbors will help neighbors now? Or complete strangers? Kindness to individuals and doing for the better of the entire community is not completely absent from our society, but it sure is harder and harder to find these days.
Had an interesting experience this on vacation this summer. Spent a few days on Mackinaic Is. where cars are banned. It was very interesting watching my fellow Americans attempting to lumber around on foot or ride a bike for the first time in decades. We looked like a bunch of sweating, over stuffed sausages sizzling in the heat…We are not a handsome people. And certainly not in shape for even the mildest of exercise. These were largely upper middle class people who tend to be in better health and often better shape than their lower class counterparts. I think of this when I read my fellow fluwikians nervously stockpiling guns to protect themselves from “them” in the cities. Friends, its too far to walk to get you. Especially when you are sick or overweight or weak from staration or thirsty or have never been in the suburbs before or the weather is bad or you are vomiting from withdrawal etc.
Sounds like not just survival of the prepared but also survival of the fittest. It’s the fit and unprepared that concerns me. I too cannot imagine a “gang” of lard buckets storming my house (though such a gang storming a Wal-Mart or fast food joint does paint a comical picture). Those unprepared healthy folks who survive the pandemic, the ones currently held in check only by a civilized ordered society, they will be the desperate & emboldened ones. Far too many of us have seen the various apocalypse & Mad Max movies and some will suddenly find themselves in a position to live out their fantasies.
how about…and this has rarely been mentioned here…
in 1918 there were no nuclear power plants.
what do we have now in the U.S.? 104?
i sure hope adequate pandemic planning/preparedness exists for each of em.
Gary at-10:27 did you try the famous Mackinac fudge??
Orlandopreppie – at 23:26 Good thought, attitude is everything.
Gary at 10.27 and others:>
Agree totally with your comments on personal fitness.
My great grandfather would at the age of seventy pick up his grandkids and haul them across the creek and usher them up the mountain. He walked everywhere except to church. I Listened to my mom talk about his fitness up until he died at age 96. I remember looking at my patients one day after a family reunion. Most of my patients were ages 40–60 who couldn’t walk across a field then a creek on their own, because many couldn’t even walk to the mailbox. I looked at my own fitness and over time and working shift work, I’d gotten soft and lazy. I started exercising with the goal of feeling fit and I’ve found out a lot of things. One, I can tolerate the heat much better than my same age friends, My body temp doesn’t spike when I’m in the heat, they don’t run out of my size scrubs, I can jog from the lower forty parking lot to the hospital if it rains, and not be out of breath or forced to sit down to regain my breath and heart rate. I really believe the best prep is working on personal fitness outdoors, not just in air condtioning.
When you see pictures of Americans in 1918, it was really rare to see overweight much less obesity. I’m afraid the effects on the obese will be much more than finding food. Lots won’t be able to fit on the emergency cots that will be set up in shelters for flu triage or treatment. Plus, most medication dosage is based on weight—you can expect triage for that as well. I haven’t checked but I believe the normal prepandemic dose of Tamiflu is higher for the obese. Docs might have to choose whether to try to save one or two people. And finally the hard cold truth is when it comes to a ventilator there will be discrimination because they are more prone to developing pneumonia. Plus, it requires more nursing energy expenditure for caring for the obese than the normal or overweight. As staff tires, the obese becomes a huge burden of care and I don’t like being the person to actually state this in writing, but we are kidding ourselves if we believe all patients are treated equally especially when resources dry up. If you want to be a survivor start at the basic level first which is best personal fitness you can attain by starting now, before TSHTF.
Maybe, I’m an optimist but I don’t think were going to see a situation out of Stephen King’s novel “The Stand” or the Bubonic plague in europe. What are the odds this flu will be different then 99.999% of pandemic flus that have swept the human population of the earth for thousands of yrs.? Is this one the BIG killer disesae of all time? I doubt it. I think I’m hearing alot of the same nonsense I heard in these kinds of sites back in 1999 about Y2k. Most of it is simply people allowing fear and their over active imaginations to carry them away. I doubt we’ll lose all our power for many reasons and if power holds as I expect it will in most areas we’ll muddle through. Not everyone is going to get sick and I believe most will people who do will survive.
glennk: I, too, doubt that the next influenza pandemic will result in the end of the world as we know it. But let us use one of the most conservative estimates extant regarding H5N1, that provided by Dr. Bob Gleeson, Medical Director for Northwestern Mutual.
“25% of the population will become ill (yes, 75% will not get sick), 30% of those who are sick will seek medical attention, 10% of those will be hospitalized and 25% of those will die.
“In a town of 1,000,000 people then: 250,000 will become ill, 75,000 will seek medical attention, 7,500 will go the hospital, and 1,875 will die.”
Extrapolating Dr. Gleeson’s estimate to the world population:
4,974,000,000 will become ill, 1,492,000,000 will seek medical attention, 149,000,000 will go to the hospital, and 37,000,000 will die.
Will this mean the end of the world as we know it? Probably not. Is it sufficiently “frightening” to cause intelligent people to prepare for it? Definitely so.
I agree and I’m doing just that. What I’m not doing is indulging myself with Bibical fantasies like some of the people who come here. Human beings and human societies can be amazingly resilent and resourceful under stress. This event is predictable which makes it somewhat manageable, unlike a tsunami or an earthquake. Disease is scary though because it’s a kind of Russian roulette siuation like war. Nevertheless, think of all the dangerous situations and diseases out here already. This is no different it’s something to use due diligence about. I’m happy to see that some Gov’ts and Int’l orgs. are doing some planning and prep. Anyway, I prefer optimism to doom and gloom over this.
Oh, and your math is way off. 25% of the world pop. of 6.5 billion is 1.565 billion will get sick 469 million will seek medical care. 47 million will be hospitalized and 12 million will die. I think your low on the death rate. It’s more like 25% of the ones that get ill will die. That’s more like 412 million will die at a 25% CFR. I doubt the CFR will be 25% though. If it is it would mean this will be the mother of all plagues.
I apologize for any mathematical errors. One of the hazards of trying to copy from a “world clock” that is constantly changing. Nevertheless, the basic point remains: even with Dr. Gleeson’s very conservative numbers, the potential for significant disruption of society and its infrastructure remains high. We all have an opinion of just how much disruption will occur. If it pleases you to criticize those who hold a different opinion regarding how much disruption will occur, that is your privilege. I’ve examined the issues for myself over the last year, and have formed my own opinions. The fact that others believe that more (or less) disruption will occur than I do does not surprise me or concern me.
“If it pleases you to criticize those who hold a different opinion regarding how much disruption will occur, that is your privilege.” Pleases me?
glennk – at 21:42 I agree and I’m doing just that. What I’m not doing is indulging myself with Bibical fantasies like some of the people who come here.
Well, then. I would beg to differ—I (and I suspect many of the people who come here to visit) seek to gain power through knowledge by reading the forum and the wiki. Please chuck the slams at religion please, and I will forego my world famous dissection of the secular humanist.
—rant off—
glennK
once again people are reacting to your jugdemental feeling choice of words. Please watch yourself. “‘indulging…in bibical fantasies like some people who come here”!?? “fear…Nonsense’
look, you insult people often on the wiki, glenn. Cut it out!
There is a huge difference between what I think is going to happen, what is likely to happen, and what could happen. It’s important to differentiate between these.
Here is my take on this-
A pandemic is GOING to happen.
I think it is likely to be serious, somewhere between 1958 and 1918–19
It is possible that it could be severe, which I define as significantly worse than 1918–1919, or CIR of 33% or greater, CFR of 10% or greater.
It could be as bad as 50% CIR per wave with 75% CFR; there have been flu pandemics which approach 50% infection, and H5N1 is presently demonstrating a 75% CFR. (When combined with our debt load, this would probably cause an economic crash and be the end of the US at least.)
Given this, I have decided to prepare for the worst possible case as best I can. “prepare for the worst, hope for the best.” Others may decide otherwise; that is the great thing about a free country. I welcome any challenge to my evaluation of the worst possible case that is more than “Well, it just can’t be that bad.” I certainly hope that it is not that bad, but I am not betting my life and the survival of my genome on it. I don’t like gambles like that.
LMWatBullRun – at 15:55 I think it is likely to be serious, somewhere between 1958 and 1918–19.
Do you have any numbers on infection rate, hospitalization rate, and death rate for 1957–58? I’ve seen death numbers of 1 million to 4 million (gosh, that’s a wide range, couldn’t we estimate cause of death any better than that in 1958?), but I’ve not seen estimates on now many people were infected or how many were hospitalized. I think the US population was ~170 million at that time but don’t know about total world population.
All the sites I’ve visited indicate that about 70,000 died in the U.S. due to the 1957–58 Asian Flu. This site for example:
“Human beings and human societies can be amazingly resilent and resourceful under stress.”
I agree with this statement but I don’t know that we’ll find that kind of resilience in the current global economy. The global interdependence and “just-in-time” inventory systems are new developments that did not exist in 1968, let alone 1918.
Our modern urban landscapes have become rapidly larger and ever more dependent on the rapid and unencumbered transfer of goods and materials (food!), electric power, technology and so on. The healthcare system has no surge capacity and too many other infrastructure items are in the same fragile boat. Comparisons to past pandemics generally fail to take into account these kinds of differences in base conditions.
What will be the long term effects from anything but the mildest pandemic? The plauge was not the end of the world but it sure was a turning point in history.
Dan,
You’ve touched upon the most important issue of pandemic prep over and beyond direct mortality, the resilience and sustainability of societies. Our modern efficiency is going to be also our greatest weakness. People and whole communities will have to re-learn many basic skills. Sure, I have confidence that eventually we will pull through, but we shouldn’t underestimate the severe shock that will accompany such adjustments, even if successful.
It’s what keeps me awake nights.
Anon_22,
Exactly. It’s what keeps me awake nights too. Assuming we survive, how do I best prepare my children (all our children) to survive and thrive in that post-pandemic economy? Can we build a better model for global survival and advancement? It should be painfully obvious that the model we now have is not sustainable.
I’d start with Heinlein’s recommendations for what a human being should be able to do. If I am able to cope with a post-pandemic environment, it’ll be largely because of RAH.
for those who do not know what I am talking about, I commend to your attention “Time enough for Love”. There is an amazing amount of good information on survival although his ideas on economics are decidedly not in accordance with the Austrian school
Another huge change that has take place in recent decades that will greatly affect a transition is found in agriculture. Most all food crops these days are grown from hybrid seeds. Even those people who grow their own gardens use them, they can’t just collect seeds from this year’s crops and use them to replant next year because they will not reproduce. Anyone planning on a future of growing their own food better be laying in a supply of heirloom seeds. In fact, if society does degrade to such a point I would imagine that seeds would become a rather valuable commodity.
Trade goods I recommend to folks who ask (and those on the Wiki, who haven’t…<grin>)
In no particular order-
Fish hooks and line, especially braided dacron, which for some reason is getting hard to find;
Ammunition, especially .22 LR rimfire ammo.
Heirloom seeds, especially corn and other grains;
Silver coinage (pre 1964 silver)
rechargeable batteries and a solar charger;
Motorola talkabout radios, in pairs;
Sewing needles and heavy thread;
Used serviceable sturdy shoes;
Nails;
Salt and other spices;
Aspirin and acetamenophen and other OTC medications;
small cheap solar radios;
Annealed steel wire in 3.5 pound rolls (tie wire)
6 mil poly plastic.
Hand tools ( you can usually find good name brand tools at most moving sales)
Skills and knowledge will be valuable too.
Anon_22 do you really think this virus is going to maintain it’s present CFR when it makes the leap to easy human to human transmission? Wouldn’t that fly in the face of most of what we now know about what usually occurs with these types of viruses? If it does of course all bets are off on how disruptive it will be over the span of 18 mos. The world will be a vastly different and I’m afraid rather sullen place afterwards if it does. In fact it would amount to the most deadly single event in human history. The human race would however still survive given we have 6.5 Billion people now.
glennk. I look forward to anon 22′s answer.
I would probably be considered a ‘fear mongerer’ or ‘pessimist’ when it comes to H5N1. However, I am absolutely sure that it will not maintain its present CFR exactly for the reasons you cited.
I believe at worst, the CFR would be ten percent or result in the deaths of ten million US citizens. The problem is that even at ten percent, the losses would be absolutely devestating and disastrous.
I believe the ten percent is the outlier to measure from in respect to H5N1.
Sez I- “It could be as bad as 50% CIR per wave with 75% CFR; there have been flu pandemics which approach 50% infection, and H5N1 is presently demonstrating a 75% CFR.”
I welcome supported dissent to this view, but so far all I have seen is in essence ‘it couldn’t be that bad’. If it couldn’t be that bad, why is the current CFR 75% in Indonesia?
Reassortment and recombination happen; why can’t H5N1 acquire the infectiousness of the current H3N2 strain while still retaining it’s deadliness?
Now, I am not saying that it WILL be that bad, just that I think it is reasonable to estimate that it COULD be that bad.
how say you, TomDVM?
LMWatBullRun. I’m with you on this but my mind will not comprehend or even accept the possibility of your comments which are reasonable given the field experience with this virus.
I think it is important to remember that all experts six months ago were predicting two things: widespread asymptomatic infections (the useless vietnam survey quoted ad nauseum) and a preciptous fall in virulence as time went on…
…needless to say, I have never in my almost twenty-five years since graduation, seen a case where experts have been so consistently wrong for so consistently long a time-period (nine years).
LMW, I think we have to learn from history on this one…although again it may be difficult given the field observations…
…If we have assume we understand the history correctly which may also be wrong, virulence decreases in exchange for transmissibility. If H5N1 was to fall in the 50–75% category it would be the worst pathogen on record…and I for one have always believed that ‘records are meant to be broken’…
…If I keep at this post long enough I will be making the opposite argument./:0)
Run all I’m saying is it flies in the face of almost everything we know about this disease over the long haul of history. If a flu of such virulance had occurred any time in the past I think we’d have heard about it in history somewhere. Again, I’m not saying it isn’t possible I’m just saying I don’t think the historical record supports such a level of virulance. Tom, your absolutely right such a death rate would be devastating to the US especially given the great majority of those likely to die would be the 20–40 age group. It would have the effect of several major Wars even worse since it would kill off large numbers of young women in their prime child bearing yrs. as well. I shudder to even think of th consequences of such a calamity. Only the Bubonic plague come to mind and we all know how that effected Europe for a generation.
Sorry, there was one thing I wanted to bring up before I completely lost my train of thought in the post above…
…and that is that the experts are giving the impression that 70 % of the population is going to magically avoid this completely novel virus when it becomes a pandemic…
…this is once again wrong. By definition, there will be no one with immunity or previous exposure to this virus…therefore, at some point, every person on the face of the earth, will be infected with this virus…whether it is during the pandemic or afterwards.
I understand that in the nineteen-twenties there were repeated waves of epidemics as a result of H1N1 with comparable mortality rates.
While we all set and talk about 1918 and the skills that have been lost, I started to remember what like was like in 1957–1959. Many of us here can remember those days.
My family was living in Kanasa City at the time. We would go to the farmers market almost every weekend in the summer and fall. We almost never bought freash produce from the A&P. Mom would can some goods and she would watch for the sales on 10 cans for a dollar or special sales 2 dollars a case (24 cans to a case). We had a mannual wringer washer until 1959 when she got the power wringer washer. Clothes were hung on a clothes line. We had a gas stove which you had to use a match to light (to include the over) No AC fans only. We had a freezer so dad would buy a 1/4 beef at a time. While we had a car, we walked or used the bus/trolly most of the time. My grandparents who lived about 30 miles north of the city still had an outhouse and my grandmother was still using a wooden stove. We heated with coal and that was part of my job to shovel the coal into the fire box when I got home from school and before we went to bed. Mom had both an electric sewing machine and a treadel type sewer. She made most of the clothes for my sister and I. We had a TV but I did not come on until 4 PM with the Howdy Doddy (sp) show and went off at 10 PM on weekdays and MidNight on the weekends. Now that I think back on that time, the US was able to with stand the mild Pan Flu because we were not as dependent on the “system” as we are today.
glennk. I agree. I think our friendly historian in New Zealand, Clarke, could add alot to this conversation…but I believe smallpox also had a high mortality rate…and I do think Clarke had other examples of high mortality rates with probable influenza’s as well.
Thank you for clearly and concisely reminding us about the age group…I had completely forgotten about this added and imminent problem.
Where is the data about the 20′s epidemics your speaking of? I’m a student of US history and I don’t remember ever hearing about such waves of epidemics.
Anon 451 Thanks.
glennk. I’m sorry. I have read so many sources, I no longer know which sources are which (I’m not the best at this type of record keeping). I’m sure someone else would have read the same material and may be able to direct you to it.
I think DemFromCt may be away but as soon as you see him, just jump in and ask him for a source.
I’m sure of what I read however…that there were aftershocks or waves of epidemics that continued for a long-time after the pandemic and H1N1 was the primary influence until the pandemic in the 1950′s.
It should also be noted that there was no known Swine Influenza before H1N1 in 1918…in effect, a pandemic in reverse for pigs…influenza in pig populations has been entrenched ever since H1N1.
Tom God forbid smallpox got loose again hardly anyone has any immunity to it anymore. Even those of us that got vaccinated way back wouldn’t have much if any anymore.
glennk yep. I just hope we don’t have to deal with waves of pandemic viruses as there are a number causing problems at the moment H7, H9 and the H3 in dogs.
The near future looks a little grim but I do believe that if we get away from the over emphasis on vaccines and anti-virals, we can get around them by other means.
Glennk: I know you do not want to hear this, and please understand that I think fastest then I type (hence the errors), but even a very mild Pan Flu, Like 58 will be very disruptive on todays life. We do not have the surge ability in the Hosiptals that we had in 58. Back then doctors were still making house calls which kept a lot of people out of the hospitals. Most people were still fending for themselves very well. We had a large (at least 4 rows of corn) garden in our back yard and we lived in the City. What enable the peoples before US to weather such a storm was the fact that they were, for the most part, self sufficent. That is not true in the West. In third world countries, It may in fact not be as bad. But we in the West are so interdependent on each other that we flat will not know what to do if the water goes off for a short period of time or the lights go down for 24 hors. Just look at all the times that has happened in the past 5 years and the panic that it has caused.
glennk
While I would have to read that section of John Barry’s book over again, I believe that the 1918 Flu did continue to infect and kill for the next few years although the CFR dropped precipitously over that period and in fact that virus is still with us today, but probably not able to kill many if any at all. Maybe someone more familiar with this could comment.
It seems to me that today many people spend our time on amusements and gadgets that we have purchased. In the past people used more of their time fixing broken or torn possessions or making something that they needed. From gardening to carpentry, didn’t most people do a lot of work that they didn’t get paid for? My dad taught himself from books when he wanted to make a rental apartment in part of the house they had just bought. He put in a bathroom and a kitchen by himself after doing the research. On the other hand, Home Depot and Lowe’s have spread all over for a reason-maybe I shouldn’t be so negative about the skill level of us Americans.
GlennK-
If a pandemic with 50% IR and 75% CFR had happened in the past, I think history would have stopped at that point; civilization as it was then would have stopped. We would not know about it because everyone would be scrambling to survive, not worried about writing things down.
To Jane and others-
As regards present day capabilities, what percentage of your circle of acquaintance, if dropped into the middle of the nearest national forest with what they carry to work with them, could survive for three days? How many would be able to find their way home? based on my informal surveys 90% of the people living in cities do not even carry a pocketknife with them.
My father, who had a PHd, graduated from high school in 1932. His high school machine shop class built an internal combustion engine from scratch, including castings and forgings, machining fasteners, winding the magneto and making the spark plug. I can think of only one other person I know besides me who could do that, and he’s part of my survival group. <grin>
Home many people can explain how the power grid works? How sewers work? Water systems? In 1918 almost everyone understood the basic science and engineering required for operation of the civilization, which was pretty basic. Today?
In 2006, < half of the graduating high school students cannot explain what an electron is or how Compton determined the mass thereof. I’d bet that fewer than one in a thousand adults can explain the technology of 1918, and less than one in a hundred can explain even in high level how our society functions and what’s required to maintain our existence. Everyone focuses on their specialty.
We have moved from being a nation of generalists to a nation of extreme specialization. That has it’s advantages, but if you lose those few critical services workers, you are in trouble. Civilization today is FRAGILE.
If I were an observer of the human race, rather than a participant of the human race, I would be utterly amazed at the predicament we humans have gotten ourselves into.
We are intelligent enough to tame and harness rivers, split atoms, build modern cities, etc, etc… Yet in “conquering” nature with all of our engineering feats we have actually “out smarted” ourselves.
I believe our modern day society is postioned worse now than any time in history to cope with a disaster such as bird flu.
JJF- your observation spawns an interesting philosophical question- Is it possible to develop our current high-tech society without abandoning the generalists? Is acute overspecialization a necessary prerequisite to a high-tech culture such as ours?
I think the answer is no, but I am the next thing to Heinlein’s encyclopedic synthesist. Just don’t have eidetic memory and am not quite smart enough.
We hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I have no idea who coined the phrase, bit it sure seems appropriate. To say it is fearmongering to worry is to slander those who are preparing. While there may never be a pandemic, to not prepare commensurate with your ability is nigh onto criminal.
I am sure that if those around in 1918 had the knowledge we do today about epidemics, they would have prepared more than they did. Today’s world may have lost some skills along the way since 1918 but we have much more information to work with. We know how masks work, we know that isolation is important, while we don’t have canning skills, we can buy canned foods. No wood stoves but we can build or buy a solar cooker. No wells in many areas but we can buy containers to hold all the water we need. So, IMO, we can come out of this better than 1918 did from a 1918-level pandemic; if we are willing to prepare. Those that don’t and nay-say those that do, well their story may have a different ending.
The Mayan civilization was destroyed by a yrs. long drought and we now know that it ended in anarchy with the masses desperate for water killing off the rulers and priests. In the end the survivors abandoned the cities and the jungle re-claimed then in a few decades. The Maya today still live in villages in grass huts and small towns. Ironically, with Int’l aid they are slowly re-building some of their magnificent cities as tourist attractions. Maybe someday we’ll be doing the same?
As pointed out here, our modern civilization is fragile, and is so largely because of our over-dependence on modern technologies (fueled by cheap oil energy). It seems our wisdom has not grown as fast as our technological intelligence.
It’s clear that our healthcare systems have no surge capacity, but I believe that applies to so many areas of our infrastructure as well, and for the same reasons. If those systems (power, transportation, security, etc.) begin to fail it will be much more than an inconvenience. The population densities of our urban and suburban areas cannot long exist without them.
Sadly, the pandemic may partly solve that problem for us “the hard way” by significantly reducing population densities.
Governement and businesses expect to pick up where they left off after the pandemic. I hope we don’t. I hope we will see the folly and vulnerability we have created and choose to build a more sustainable society and civilization. I’m not talking utopia here, just some governmental and legislative backing for more sustainable practices.
So there’s our homework assignment while SIPping. Pandemic, or even the threat of pandemic can be a teachable “moment” where we can call into question the weaknesses of our system. We can do better - let’s figure out how and demand a better way.
Dan at 19:08: Just so “the better way” doesn’t fundamentally deny people the right to property. The philosopher John Locke properly calculated that the right to own property and to do with it what you will (within parameters) is the bedrock for all of the other fundamental human rights. Throw that principle overboard, and you will end up with a stagnant Hell that denies the human spirit and human nature.
If that is what you propose, the cure will be worse than the disease and ultimately doomed to failure anyway.
glennk – at 18:33 The Mayan civilization was destroyed by a yrs. long drought and we now know that it ended in anarchy with the masses desperate for water killing off the rulers and priests.
Note that drought is not universally accepted as the cause for the decline of the ancient Mayan civilization. Per Wikipedia:
“For reasons which are still much debated, in the 8th and 9th centuries AD (the “Terminal Classic” period) Maya culture went into decline, with most of the cities of the central lowlands abandoned. Detailed monumental inscriptions all but disappeared. Warfare, ecological depletion of croplands, and drought or some combination of those factors are usually suggested as reasons for the decline … However, there is no single cause universally accepted for their decline.”
Medical Maven: I like my private property too. I’m talking about liveing more sustainably and more locally.
I’ve often contemplated how previous civilazations (Romans, Mayans, Atlantis?, etc.) could possibly have advanced to a certain level, and then just collapse. I never understood, until now, why these civilaztions did not keep advancing rather than fold.
IMHO, our 2006 technology reliant society has mankind poised to fall harder, faster, and further than any time in recorded history.
This wiki forum has changed my thinking from how much wheat, water, and ammo I’ll need for 18 months to how many fishing lures and garden seeds I’ll need for the rest of my life.
Dennis: That’s true there is some dispute over the drought hypothesis but it is considered a strong candidate. One of the reasons is because of data mined from the Ice Cores in Greenland which show atmospheric changes that indicate would concur with this scenario. Another reason is that the Mayan area of central America is one of the few places on earth without any large rivers or streams and a very limited ability to store water. Even minor droughts were a problem for the Maya.
glennk is correct. Scientific American in 2005 had an article presenting the latest (very detailed study data) supporting the idea that several, successive decades-long droughts were the primary factors causing the downfall of the Mayan civilization.
JJF’s comment on how fluwiki has changed his perspective inspires me to reveal my transformation. I started out thinking that a STRICT SIP was the only way to get thru this. Then the learned skepticism of medical people about anyone really avoiding contact with this virus no matter how hard you try led me to abandon that notion. Several times I read Melanie’s comments to the effect that she was storing extra preps for those around her and her frequent comments that the only way we will get thru this is together, relying on each others’ strengths and caring for your neighbor’s weaknesses. Now I’ve decided to get to know the neighbors, find out who has a fireplace or a woodstove, who has a non-rotted woodpile, who has kids, who is old, and who is healthy. Who plans ahead and who is prodigal. I mention flu, if the occasion presents itself, but I get about the same reactions I suspect you all are getting. So, I’m stockpiling perhaps double the amount of wood I’ll need for a winter in these hills. I’m planning “care packages” and the bags to carry them. I hope to have solar panels up and running shortly, so I plan to run an extension cord to my neighbor, who I don’t expect to plan ahead. I also think that with more or less reliable power, our house might become a hospital of sorts. I’m over 60, but reasonably healthy for a gezzer, having lost 60 highly undesirable pounds in recent years, so I’ll be at a lower probability of catching this flu. That places me in a likely caretaker role. Going it alone, as Ben Franklin reminded the rebellious colonies, is to die alone. United we stand, yes, but divided we fall.
Actually out here near Death Valley (not in Death Valley but fairly close, and with a large valley here with thousands of people), SIP will work fine in our situation. My wife and I have planned well ahead, and did make care packages of 5 lb bean packages etc, but there are neighbors that also have planned ahead and have stored well. Of course it does help to have a 6 foot chain link fence around the property and the neighbors have that also, although I am the only one that has a gard of any size. We could SIP for at least two years plus, although the diet may be become rather mundane.
I for one now go out to a local small casino for breakfast every morning, and that will be the most difficult for me, not going to breakfast and conversing with others about the events going on in the world. Yes we are the ones, age 60 sitting around the small tables making everything GOOD in the world with the snap of our fingers.
But if there were family or friend “refugees” that show up at the door, we have planned for that also just in case. Have a seperate building now used as a craft and art building, that could be used as an emergency spare room, that someone could use, in isolation till at least 14 days pass, to make sure that they did not bring the flu inside the “compound”. Having been in the emergency field my whole career, now retired, and able to plan and afford better prep, that is what we have done. We maybe SIP but can and will allow family and friends needed to come in also. Some live here close and they won’t but those that live several hundred miles away might. In either case, we still plan for that.
1918,as explained by my grandfather,no school,no funerals,tea towels hung from the front doors,hence who has sick people,it came twice,Father shot and killed deer all summer,my grandfather everyday delivered deer steak and potatoes wrapped in newspaper from his wagon with a scarf on his face, on the doorsteps he would leave the meals,it took many.everything stopped,Rural Nova Scotia Canada
Gary at 10:37
I agree with you. I know a woman who was 11 years old during the 1918 flu. Her parents helped everyone that they could. They were fortunate enough to not get sick. Her mother did, but she recovered. They built coffins and buried their neighbors, made meals for others who were sick and took in two orphans. Another lady I know was telling me about how her aunt used to tlk about the 1918 pandemic a lot. No one in her family got sick, but a lot of people on her street did. Her family would prepare a lot of food everyday and her aunt would take it to those that were sick. Others on the street would help with the care of the children of those that were sick. I am sure that a lot of lives were saved that would have been lost with just a little bit of help. I plan to sip and try to avoid the virus, but I am going to keep gathering beyond what I need for my own family so that I can share through the food shortages.
I applaud the generosity stated here. another difference between 1918 and now is that today such behaviour is the exception. Sad but true.
OK, here’s a project for us:
Office Depot (just as an example) has corrugated cardboard “storage boxes” that are approximately 10″ x 12″ x 16″. That’s 1920 cubic inches. They have a lift-off lid and built-in handles (link here.
If you wanted to share preps with a neighbor or family member, or if you wanted to have something available to give to someone in need during a crisis (motivation is not the issue here; practical packing is) … what would you put in the box?
Some beans & rice & canned stew &/or soup? All canned goods so they can be eaten cold? A backpacking stove and canister of fuel? A water filter and water jug? A flashlight? Some strike-anywhere matches? What are people LEAST likely to have that they will need? I know we can’t prepare a box that will fit everyone’s total needs, but maybe there are one or two “standards” we can develop for use by those who choose to help others.
Dennis in Colorado at 21:32: Good idea, past threads have come up with various items. I would add one more for yourself, a ninja outfit to wear (mask included) when you present (or surreptitiously drop off) this gift. You don’t want to be known as the “corner grocer” or pharmacy.
Even if things are “under control” when you embark on this project things may turn for the worse later.
Giving (anonymously) is truly more blessed than receiving (unwanted attention) in this situation.
Thanks, MM. Do you recall the name of the thread(s) in which the previous lists were discussed?
I bought a book along time ago that’s included with my bug-out stuff: Reader’s Digest “Back to Basics-How to learn and enjoy Traditional American Skills”.
There are other books on this topic-coupled with enough supplies and basic tools, I suppose it could help someone with less-than Amish do-it-yourself knowledge….
you know, my mom died about five years ago, and before she died she told us kids, I wish I could live now, because of what’s comin for you all, my knowledge would be life saving. of course she raised us thinking like her, to grow gardens, to can food, and I’m still puttin up as they call it, I bake bread like my grandmother and sometimes I think I’m a misplaced person who should have lived in the 1800′s and mom taught us to quilt which i do all the time. But the problem is how many people in this day and age have been taught like us older ones. My stepson told me one time, mom I want to marry a girl that cooks and sews like you do. I looked him in the eye and said good luck son cause your gonna need it. I’m sorry to say I was right. There is a lot of things that we’ve gotten away from that we will have to maybe relearn to survive but I hope we can teach the young ones again. I pray for us all.
Hip hip hurrah lady biker. And another appalling thing is the inability of some (many?) people to ‘entertain’ themselves without tv, computer games, or internet.
I raised all my children (five) to cook, sew and knit. By cooking I mean from basic fresh ingredients - fortunately in NZ fresh basics are still mostly cheaper than packaged foods. They all grow vegetable gardens and do their own house and section maintenance. They all love to go fishing and do so regularly. I do not ‘worry’ for their self-sufficiency.
I think one of the big changes is the loss of general community (neighbourly) support that was prevalent until 20–30 years ago. Some places still have it but, the bigger the cities get, the less the inherent neighbourhood support seems to be.
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