Forum: News Reports for October 26

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 23 October 2006 (latest update)

Lookout Posts – here are the links

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions

• Northern Africa
• West Africa
• Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia
• Central America and Caribbean

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)

Summary of News for 25 October 2006

(From WHO as at 16 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 151 (2006 – 109 with 73 deaths)
(If you want the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Canada

• Pandemic to be ‘disaster in slow motion’ (http://tinyurl.com/y3ujxb)

Europe

• Bird flu may return to Europe in the coming weeks: UN angency says (link http://tinyurl.com/y6wrty)

India

• See separate thread for discussion (link India II )

Indonesia

• Please visit the thread for the latest news from this region
• Separate thread for outbreak discussion (link Indonesia Outbreak XVIII )
• Separate thread for Summary of cases (link Case Summaries )

(Inner) Mongolia

• Quarantine lifted in bird flu-hit area (link http://tinyurl.com/yl8n29)

Pacific

• New Zealand puts $2Mill towards pandemic planning in the Pacific (link http://tinyurl.com/ymeals)

South Korea

• S Korea to implement tough bird flu prevention measures starting in November (link http://tinyurl.com/yafw6w)

United States of America

• Heads up Hunters (link http://tinyurl.com/wnwqf)
• Face Facts (link http://tinyurl.com/yelmoe)
• Bird flu Patients should stay home, US officials may say (link http://tinyurl.com/yk6etq)
• Interim Guidance on Planning for the use of surgical masks and respirators in health care settings during an influenza pandemic (link http://tinyurl.com/85umg)
• Study warns US of avian influenza perils (link http://tinyurl.com/yxqr82)
• (Maryland) County hospitals brace for flu pandemic (link http://tinyurl.com/ucpzb)
• (Massachusetts) Advance warning of H5N1 influenza outbreaks may be found in shrimp virus reservoirs (link http://tinyurl.com/txfum)
• (Arkansas) Washington County emergency personnel plan for flu pandemic (link http://tinyurl.com/slyxe)
• (Indiana) Officials discuss ways to combat flu pandemic (link http://tinyurl.com/y5rg78)
• (Oregon) Health officials: pandemic planning a priority (http://tinyurl.com/y3prua)

Vietnam

• Vietnam’s success against bird flu may offer blueprint for others (link http://tinyurl.com/yg2tc4)

Zimbabwe

• Zimbabwe ostriches hit by suspected avian bird flu (link http://tinyurl.com/yy42ow)

General

• Bird flu warning prevents world pandemic (link http://tinyurl.com/y6vqze)

Link to news thread for 25 October (link News Reports for October 25 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

Expert: sparrows in China carry bird flu virus

2006–10–26 19:29:57

‘’‘BEIJING, Oct. 26 (Xinhua) — “Chinese scientists recently reported that they found H5N1 bird flu virus in sparrows two years ago, the first time the virus has been detected in the common, non-migratory bird on the Chinese mainland.

Wuhan Institute of Virology in central China’s Hubei Province tested excrement samples from 38 sparrows after an outbreak of bird flu in a county in Henan Province in 2004. Some of samples tested positive of H5N1 virus, said Li Tianxian, a researcher with the institute.’‘’

“There’s no need for the public to panic. The findings are two years old and there is no indication that sparrows pose a risk,” said Li, adding that scientists found the bird flu virus in sparrows in the region of Hong Kong in 2002 and also in Turkey and South Africa.

‘’‘Working with the Beijing Institute of Zoology, both under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the scientists isolated four H5N1 strains among the 25 positive excrement samples.

Li said tests on the four strains have shown they are a new genotype of H5N1, adding that researchers did not find dead sparrows.’‘’

It was thought that bird flu was mainly transmitted by migratory water fowl, but this finding proves that non-migratory birds are also a potential channel for bird flu transmission, Li told the Chutian Metropolitan News published in Hubei Province.

The finding was published in December of last year in the U.S-based Journal of Virology, according to the newspaper.”

http://tinyurl.com/y9rydd

Chinese scientists report bird flu in sparrows

26 Oct 2006 11:26:57 GMT Source: Reuters

BEIJING, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Chinese scientists said they had found the H5N1 bird flu virus in sparrows two years ago, the first time it has been detected in non-migratory birds in China, Xinhua news agency reported on Thursday. Researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, in the central province of Hubei, found the virus in sparrows’ excrement following an outbreak of bird flu in a county in neighbouring Henan province.

There’s no need for the public to panic. The findings are two years old and there is no indication that sparrows pose a risk,” Xinhua quoted Li Tianxian, a researcher at the institute, as saying.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/PEK216435.htm

Map of Hubei province in China

This may be unrelated however, I posted and article a few days ago where a top scientist said WHO should be concerned with the new TB we are seeing.This article says five people have died of TB in five days yet they have not been confirmed with TB. It could be a mixing pot if nothing else. http://www.dispatch.co.za/2006/10/26/Easterncape/atb.htmlDeadly new TB may have killed five more

EC health officials are now monitoring sixth victim By ALISON STENT

THE DEADLY new strain of extremely drug resistant tuberculosis, XDR-TB, may have claimed a further five Eastern Cape victims in as many days. All five are from Port Elizabeth. A sixth possible case is under provincial Health Department scrutiny together with the patient’s family.

The Daily Dispatch reported last week that the department was searching frantically for the six in order to ferry them to special isolation wards at Jose Pearson TB Hospital in Port Elizabeth.

This was after news leaked out that 14 from Port Elizabeth may already have died of the dangerous new strain, which has mutated from MDR, or multi-drug resistant TB, which itself mutated from ordinary TB as a result of patients defaulting on their medication regime. None of the 20 cases has yet been confirmed as XDR, health spokesperson Mzukisi Ndara emphasised. The five people who died did so before the necessary tests were complete, while the sixth, in Humansdorp, is awaiting test results from the laboratory, he added. By Tuesday, a total of 284 cases had been confirmed in KwaZulu-Natal, the worst-hit province, said SA Medical Research Council spokesperson Lorenzo Raynard. However, he could not speculate on the number of XDR infections in the Eastern Cape.

Representatives from 11 Southern African countries joined international experts last month to drum up an emergency regime against the killer disease as fears rose over the KZN outbreak, which had a high fatality rate because many of the patients were already ill with HIV-related infections. Dr Gerrit Coetzee, who heads the TB reference laboratory at the National Health Laboratory Service, said there was an urgent need to put new measures in place to curb the spread of infection, including “far more stringent infection control in healthcare facilities”. “At the moment there are TB patients coughing all over people in clinic and hospital queues. Infectious people must be separated out and treated in separate rooms.”

He said the TB germ could “hang around in the air” for quite a few hours. He also called for far more diagnostic tests. He pointed to the laboratories at Frere Hospital, at Mthatha General and in Port Elizabeth, although “I know they are understaffed and overworked”.

….bird flu in sparrows…..

I thought H5N1 only infected large birds(?)

why is this in the news again? It’s two years old.

http://www.dispatch.co.za/2006/10/26/Easterncape/atb.html

Corrected link on 9:23 above…

“”“cottontop – at 10:33 wrote:”“”

why is this in the news again? It’s two years old.

“”“26 Oct 2006 11:26:57 GMT Source: Reuters’‘’

Non-migratory Sparrows infected with H5N1 might be common knowledge to some, but this is the first media report that I’ve encountered, and a I read a lot.

JWB – at 10:08 wrote:

….bird flu in sparrows….. I thought H5N1 only infected large birds(?)

Not anymore.

remember a few weeks ago when Hungary had sparrow problems. I wonder if they were tested.

More congressional members involved in CDC investigation Already under investigation by the Senate Finance Committee, the CDC now faces scrutiny by the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which has asked the CDC director to explain the agency’s reorganization, its financial management, and the way it handles human tissue samples and lab equipment. Journal and Constitution (Atlanta) (free registration) (10/24)

To me a finding that indicates H5N1 is very entrenched locally in native birds.

And IMHO the more chances it has ‘up to bat’ie showing up in birds and mammals the more chances it has of finally hitting one out of the ballpark.

Boston, Massachusetts, USA

In the Case of an Outbreak of Pandemic Flu, Large Majority of Americans Willing to Make Major Changes in Their Lives

Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) 10/26/2006 1:41:59 PM

Thursday, October 26, 2006, Boston, MA — The latest national survey conducted by the Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) Project on the Public and Biological Security finds that when faced with a serious outbreak of pandemic flu, a large majority of Americans are willing to make major changes in their lives and cooperate with public health officials’ recommendations.

However, the survey also finds that a substantial share of Americans would have no one to care for them if they become ill or would face serious financial problems if they had to stay home from work for a week or more… (study is 25% for these two questions)

http://tinyurl.com/yy7typ

Klatu @ 11:55

Well you missed this one. My point is, why bring this up now? However, I’m glad they did. It gives us a heads up on the fact that H5N1 seems to infect birds in general, and not just large poultry. There only testing in large poultry, not smaller birds like sparrow. A good commentary on this: www.recombinomics.com/news/12010502/h5n1_henan.html

Speaking of recombinomics and todays news….

‘’H5N1 H9N2 Recombinants in Northern China Recombinomics Commentary October 26, 2006

….revealed rapid transmission, frequent reassortment, and identifiable recombination events“. …..

I can’t tinyurl here at work, would someone please provide link?

In the UK over the last couple of years there have been questions asked in newspapers etc (including a bit of a campaign by the ‘Independent’ newspaper)regarding the recent lack of sparrows in Britain. They used to be very common, then quite suddenly they seemed to become very rare in most places. Hope it isn’t connected.

JWB – at 15:58

here is the link:

 http://tinyurl.com/yj8k88

JWB - at 15:58

Here is the link: http://tinyurl.com/yj8k88

Sudan is reporting bird flu outbreaks. I’m going to keep a close eye on my favorite ancient country, Egypt, for Sudan borders it. Kenya is stepping up their alert.

For JWB - at 15:58:
http://tinyurl.com/yj8k88

cottontop – at 16:03 do you have a link for the Sudan outbreak?

DennisC- Hold on and let me recheck that address.

Thanks X 3.

Interesting that all three tinyurls are identical!

No drift, shift, mutations, or recombinations.

NPR has just done a radio interview about the pandemic survey and the 2-day workshop this week at the National Institute of Medicine where experts heard from medical historians about what worked and what didn’t in 1918 in various U.S. cities. The interview will be posted on their website after 7pm eastern time today.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6388581

Have you noticed there have been no new human cases since the 15th (I just check through our news summaries)? That could be a good sign since it seems previous outbreaks seemed to be seperated by a week or two. Perhaps it was contained this time. But I need to find my reading glasses and look harder instead of these rose colored glasses.

DennisC – at 16:23

Have you noticed there have been no new human cases since the 15th

The calm before the storm?

Survey: How Would Americans Handle a Super Flu?

Ask Americans if they would hole up at home to keep from spreading a super-strain of flu, and at first they pledge to cooperate.

But probe deeper, and here come the doubts. One in four adults says there is no one to care for them at home if they got sick, raising the specter of Grandma gasping alone in bed or a single mom passed out while her children wail.

http://tinyurl.com/yg7xv9

It’s a good article.

Except for the fact that they think people will only miss an average of 7–10 days.

Karina – at 16:36 This is another article about the same survey you discussed (is a Canadian newspaper, so the word spelling will be different), but it had some comments from Michael Osterholm that were very interesting. (I apologize - I do not know how to do a small url yet!)

<snip> Blendon said workplace worries were a major problem, too. Many people live paycheque-to-paycheque, and more than one-quarter of respondents said they would lose a job or business if they had to stay home for seven days to 10 days. Only one-third thought they still would get paid if they missed work.

This real-world feedback is important as long as policymakers understand people will act less rationally in a crisis, said Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota infectious disease specialist who has advised the government on flu preparations.

His bigger concern is that the stay-at-home plans are far too simplistic.

“If you want to guarantee that society will collapse in terms of the economy, tell everybody to stay home,” Osterholm said. “Somebody’s got to move the food, take away the garbage, provide health care, law enforcement, to assure that communications continues. … We will very much put at risk things like electricity, food.” <snip>

http://www.mytelus.com/news/article.do?pageID=cp_health_home&articleID=2430625

With Osterholm’s comments, he does not believe people should be staying at home and that this would ensure an economic collapse. With everyone continuing to go to work and school, it will ensure the fast spread of the virus should it become pandemic. He states these plans are too simplistic - well, what could be done? Do you force these people to work? How can we, as a society, create a situation to keep society functioning, but still reduce the risk of becoming infected to a minimal level? I have no good answer. Any comments?

DennisC-

these links are so maddening!

Ok. medindia.com/news/ click on the sparrow in china story. Scroll down, it’s on the right hand side. The story is current. I posted this a couple of days ago. Growing concern though.

Sorry for the delay.

Our local Public Radio (Western Kentucky University)had a little snippet on their “MidDay Edition” about the Harvard Study, which is a little odd because they tend to focus on Local/regionasl news and not cover “Harvard Studies”. Yesterday, they did a fifteen minent “Words on Wellness” on the flu and stress the importance of getting a flu shot-they did NOT talk about bird flu, but did mention that “Flu this year may be more severe than in past years…..” I’m thinking W.O.W. might be a pre-recorded PSA- it comes on once a week. This station has, back in the spring done a fifteen minent bit on “Avian Bird Flu’which was pretty decent. They didn’t Pooh-pooh it at any rate. Odd that flu is on two days in a row, but probably is just a coincidence.

I missed the NPR spot, but our station repeats the first hour so I’ll try to catch it. (Don’t know why they repeat the first hour, and not the second) Thanks for the heads up,Sniffles.

DennisC- www.medindia.com/news/

sorry.

cottontop – at 17:17 thanks

26 October 2006

U.N. Official Sees Bird Flu as Threat for Next Decade

Indonesian human death rate distressing, coordinator Nabarro says

“A dog has a close encounter with a chicken at a poultry market in Nanjing, east China’s Jiangsu province. (© AP Images) United Nations — Bird flu is likely to remain a health threat to animals, and possibly humans, for the next decade, the U.N. coordinator for avian influenza says.

Dr. David Nabarro said October 23 that the avian influenza virus H5N1 “still is a major animal health issue for most of the world and we think it’s going to stay that way for five, perhaps 10 years, to come.”

Health experts predict the virus will be an ongoing threat because of its highly pathogenic nature and its capability to survive in some species of wild birds for long periods without harming those species. These bird varieties then become carriers of the virus, transmitting it to more vulnerable bird populations.

Another factor adding to the health threat is the virus’ ability to spread by a variety of mechanisms — wild bird migration, trade in animals and poor biosecurity practices in agriculture.”

http://tinyurl.com/yetmo6

Dr. David Nabarro said October 23:

“…we think it’s going to stay that way (H5N1/a major animal health issue) for five, perhaps 10 years, to come.”

What changes in 5-to-10-years ? For better or worse, and why?

Arizona, USA

Pandemic drill features free flu shots

Moeding-Evans, personnel director for the Town of Gilbert, was one of hundreds of people who participated in a town-sponsored immunization drill Wednesday evening at McQueen Park Activity Center. The drill simulated a mass vaccination clinic that could be used during a flu pandemic.

[snip]

As the taskforce reviews its findings from the exercise, Gilbert’s next focus will be public education, recommending residents get seasonal flu shots via public service announcements on local access television, Gibbons said.

[snip]

The town anticipates up to 50 percent of its staff would be unable to work during a pandemic, and departments have been cross-training employees for several months to continue essential services like wastewater treatment and trash pick-up, said Greg Svelund, a town spokesman.

http://tinyurl.com/ylbr8s

Ireland

Life or death choices if flu pandemic hits Ireland

If the Irish health service hopes to contain a lethal or severe influenza pandemic, people in cities will have to be treated first, a US expert on pandemics has told Irish Medical Times.

Prof Frederick Burkle, a Senior Fellow with the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative at Harvard University’s School of Public Health, said doctors and policymakers would have to make hard decisions in the event of a flu pandemic, including who does and does not receive treatment.

[snip]

“The individual is really not important. My goal is to make sure that every patient will never transmit it to somebody else. In a normal ICU situation, you have a special nurse, two or three other nurses, and a whole team of doctors. In (a pandemic), it will be like Africa. The definition of intensive care of a hospital in Africa is that you might have a nurse that day,” he said.

http://tinyurl.com/yku7rb

Massachusetts, USA

Surviving pandemic focal point of forum

he topic was pandemic flu, but Hurricane Katrina kept on coming up as a model of what not to do when planning how to protect the most vulnerable people when emergencies strike.

From flu to floods, identifying people in need is the key to managing disasters of any scope, about 80 people at the Worcester YWCA heard yesterday from speakers and participants. They represented immigrants, people who don’t speak English, people with disabilities, homeless people and the agencies that serve them. The program, called “Connecting the Dots from City to Community to Vulnerable Population: Surviving a Flu Pandemic,” was the second of four forums in the state organized by the Massachusetts Public Health Association.

[snip]

About 30 percent of the population would get sick in a pandemic’s first wave, experts estimate, which means about 2 million of the 6.4 million people in Massachusetts would fall ill over about six to eight weeks, said Lisa Crowner, a health educator from the state Department of Public Health’s division of epidemiology and immunization. Half of them would seek outpatient care, 80,000 would be hospitalized and 20,000 would die.

“Those numbers are very scary,” she said. “As health care providers, if 30 percent of our work force is sick, how are we going to provide lifesaving service to those with the highest needs?”

http://tinyurl.com/yglbuh

Michigan, USA

County prepares for pandemic outbreak emergency through training exercise

Emergency management personnel in the 13-county region participated in the training scenario designed to mimic closely a true pandemic outbreak.

[snip]

Taranko said part of the simulation was getting the various departments to realize that in the case of a pandemic, they will likely have to operate with reduced staffs because a portion will likely become infected.

[snip]

The county will also conduct a first-of-its-kind mass inoculation drill, tentatively scheduled at Ludington High School for Nov. 1.

http://tinyurl.com/yk488n

Vaccine

Glaxo says more govts plan to buy bird flu vaccine

GlaxoSmithKline Plc <GSK.L> expects to sign more contracts to supply governments with its experimental bird flu vaccine for humans, following purchases by Switzerland and an unidentified Asian country.

“Between now and Christmas, I expect we will sign a few more in Europe and elsewhere,” Chief Executive Jean-Pierre Garnier told analysts in a post-results conference call.

Europe’s biggest drugmaker announced earlier this month that the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health had ordered 8 million doses of its H5N1 vaccine to protect its entire population in the event of an influenza pandemic, which many experts fear may be triggered by bird flu.

[snip]

Rival companies including Sanofi-Aventis <SASY.PA>, Novartis AG <NOVN.VX> and Baxter International Inc. <BAX.N> are also racing to develop pandemic H5N1 vaccines.

http://tinyurl.com/yjfc3e

Nice conservative death rate of 1%, but scary enough. But there’s no talk of all the collateral social/economic problems. The article mentions how some susceptible portion of the population will have bigger problems, but it seems to me either the forum, or the author of the article, only scratched the surface. The report doesn’t feel like anything new.

Op-ed piece by Lawrence Wein in New York Times-urges immediate ramping up of manufacturing of face masks, both N-95 and surgical. In his studies, surgical face masks (with nylon stockings over them to make them fit tightly) provide good protection. Also virus doesn’t live long on them, so they can be reused “until they disintegrate.” Also window fans in an open window and humidifiers help. In passing, says schools should be closed.

(registration is required for this site) face masks the best protection

Please have patience with me, and forgive me for my ignorance in scientific knowledge, but, what is this news article saying?” Report Casts Doubt on Flu Vaccine Effectiveness” see: link

Is it alluding to nothing or something???? such as,- a) let’s get the ‘old’ folks or maybe everyone? convinced that there is no benefit to a vaccination? b) let’s start frustrating the science so people then become tired of the science and then complacent? c) let’s start helping the pharmaceutical companies have some leeway? d) let’s not tell them that the current vaccine has problems? e) let’s not tell them that there is actually not enough viable vaccine this year? f) let’s gradually let them, ?, down?

Way more questions, but my fingers are done for the night.

Joint USDA and DOI news release:Confirmatory Avian Influenza Test Complete On Ohio Duck Samples-New Public Noticication Protocal Announces

www.USDA.gov

USA, OSHA

OSHA Hopes to Publish Flu Pandemic Guidance Documents Soon

Foulke also noted that the agency currently is engaged in a national effort to prepare a coordinated emergency response to a possible flu pandemic.

According to Foulke, OSHA has been examining workplace safety and health concerns related to this threat for nearly a year. Committees of OSHA employees have helped develop a group of guidance documents that focus on recognizing and combating the hazards of a pandemic.

“We hope to publish these documents very soon, and at this conference you will learn more about the valuable information they contain,” Foulke said.

http://tinyurl.com/y59v7b

anknon.

Interesting moniker!! Welcome to flu wiki or I should maybe proabably say welcome to posting at flu wiki…it seems new posters are most often longtime lurkers.

I see that you have chosen a Canadian reference…if you are Canadian we have a thread called Canadian Preppers.

The bottom line is that there is nothing other than anecdotal evidence that current influenza technology works. We keep hearing that it works but no evidence ever seems to be avaliable to back up the statement.

Saying only that the benefit outweighs the harm…really isn’t saying much if, as estimated, one in a million are injured by the vaccine.

You might find the following interesting…

http://www.washingtonfreepress.org/70/fluVaccineMissingTheMark.htm

82 million US.people are vaccinated per year against flu 15% of US-people get flu each year 36000 deaths per year 25% of vaccinations are effective so 82million vaccinations save 2500 lifes per year in USA.

assuming a probability of only 2% per year (as the mortality-bonds suggest) for a H5N1 pandemic worse than 1918, that’s an expectation value of at least 40000 deaths per year. Assume the CFR is 2.5% as in 1918, suppose the prepandemic vaccine has a 10% chance of protection, that’s an estimated 1000 of saved lifes per year. That ignores the discussion about side-effects which would only be 10% with panflu-vaccine. And this assumes 1918 as worst case. It’s not so easy to decide… The clear decision pro H3N2 suggests, that you and the authorities don’t consider the threat as big as I had thought :-)

Note: This is a post from Effect Measure on Oct. 22.

I believe it was posted by our friend gs. Maybe he could elaborate further on the subject.

I hope this is appropriate here. Please forgive me if not and suggest where it would be.

After reading the Massachussetts forum piece, I can’t help but feel like we’ve reached the limits of willingness to prepare given the current situation with AI (WHO at level 3 still, enough other pathogens going on that are truly remarkable to watch, but still not certain we’re closer to any kind of pandemic). It seems like so many recent news articles are just ‘bumps’ that keep the overall awareness going, but nothing new. I am personally beginning to feel a tension that I don’t think will be relieved until something happens. I wish things would ratchet down a bit and that news reports would be more substantial, or just quiet down.

Hi John O. I can understand how you feel. I guess we all come to the subject with individual expertise.

I have been an amazed observer of pathogens in nature for more than twenty-years. I have learned that our five senses only give us a peak at what pathogens are doing…we see only the tip of the iceburg.

I am very aware of the threat that H5N1 presents to each of us and our family…but tracking the little sucker is a scientific passion…more or less.

In my opinion, the relative silence at the moment means nothing. It doesn’t mean H5N1 is going away and it doesn’t mean that H5N1 is going to jump tomorrow morning.

Let me put it this way…it is all about ‘CRITICAL MASS’…once critical mass is reached, we humans have lost control and biological probabilities take over.

H5N1 has reached critical mass in concentration in Asia (endemic), in geographical spread to all areas except the Americas and most disturbingly in a wide variety of mammalian and avian species…and even more troubling…it has infected animals never before infected with H5N1 and now appears to infect a number of species asymptomatically.

Dear Tom DVM - thank you for your explanation and for being a someone that looks out for and cares about, all creatures, great and small.

anknon. Thanks.

Please stay with us…your input is much appreciated.

I am about to create the News Summary for today then I will start a new thread.

You might like to hold your post for about 30 minutes.

Cheers and thanks.