The tension seems to be rising. Meetings are being held. More stories about “when the” pandemic happens. Studies are being done. Thread after thread with post after post getting more nervous and pessemistic. New “jaron” being invented…..
So i ask… where’s the Pandemic?
Where are the dying chicken, the dying ducks and mute swans? Where are the sick kids and dying clusters? Where is the Jakarta Post?
Ok - everybody can get mad at me now.
But i still ask… where’s H5N1 gone?
I don’t want it to happen. I have been following it for awhile and things tend to run in waves; ups and downs but we’ve been down for a bit now. What’s going on out there? Seems to be more going on with West Nile, Dengue, and other types of staph infections than BF. Guess “RED ALERT” can only last for so long.
I don’t want it to happen. I have been following it for awhile and things tend to run in waves; ups and downs but we’ve been down for a bit now. What’s going on out there? Seems to be more going on with West Nile, Dengue, and other types of staph infections than BF. Guess “RED ALERT” (maybe Yellow Alert) can only last for so long.
Goju, it’s waiting for you to turn your back before it rears it’s ugly head - so DON’T turn your back! It does seem like much ado about nothing doesn’t it? The swan’s still upright and all’s well with the world……on the surface. Maybe we have a reprieve from a rushed Fall panic.
By my count, no WHO confirmed human cases since the 15th or so. The Thai govenment site keeps having susepected cases but they always test negative. Perhaps they have contained it. Perhaps it has mutated so it is harder to test for. It worries me that the Jakarta Post is down. I was “told” that they were “rebuilding their site” but stil…. Does anyone here have personal connections that can see hard copies of the paper?
Goju – at 21:13
So i ask… where’s the Pandemic?
Where ever it is - may it stay there!
It will be here in it’s own good time. Man is the one in this contest with the ego. Kelly
There will certainly be a panflu of some sort in our future, if we live just a few more years.
I am continually astounded by the amount of environmental stress going on out there. The media is not playing it up. It is real. And it is ratcheting up exponentially. The coastal and inland megacities of the Developing World are sliding on a greased chute to Hell.
And I see this with “clear eyes”, a conservative capitalist and not a “Greenpeace” environmentalist.
Seriously, someone commented that some country was on holiday and thats got something to do with the quiet.
Goju – at 21:13
Is that really you? :-)
It would be nice if H5N1 went far far away but after sitting in those meeting of yours and talking with the people you talked with; do you really think its gone away? Those experts believe it will happen, eventually. Maybe we do have 5 years. That would be great. Maybe they will come up with away to create vacines faster and perhaps we will have time to update the grid and we can stockpile meds and food for the masses and begin depending on ourselves more then on just in time deliverys form other countries. The general public will have more time to get on board and our elected officials will be more in tune with saving the planet and people then getting kickbacks…and the statin research will pan out and provide hope during the first phase of a pandemic. It could happen.
You can’t deny that its gotten very quiet out there except for all the squawking about the Pandemic.
I find it interesting … it’s like a ballon that has all the outside pressure removed so it inflates by itself. That’s how I have been feeling…
We have an ancient form (Kata) in my system that is called Seiunchin… it means to fake weakness and draw the opponent in… controlling him… so you can finish him off easily.
hummmmm. I never saw H5N1 in any of my classes but it sure seemed to have learned the lesson.
Just because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t. Nature works on her own schedule and her own timetable, not ours.
I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:35
Seriously, someone commented that some country was on holiday and thats got something to do with the quiet.
Same thing happened in Turkey during their outbreak. A single week holiday in the middle suppressed any news for weeks.
But the virus didn’t take a vacation.
It may be working for another 5–10 years. It’s already been 10 years since Hong Kong 1997.
Or it may be something completely out of the blue that’s not being tracked.
But statistically it will happen relatively soon. The only missing factor is how bad
The media is just bored with it and all the political crap on both sides is heating up evem more. That’s all. Remember, the media runs this country, not any political parties or the people anymore. It is sad. But hey, lets just go back to watching Survivor and other mind numbing idiot shows including news shows which shout out which politician screwed minors (on both sides) or said the N word 30 years ago or who was a KKK member 40 years ago. Keep watch on WHO and the other sites that no one looks at to keep abreast of what is going on. Filter out the crap. I just worry about the sheeple who actually believe what they see on the boob tube and make their decisions from news sound bites or Oprah. I call them ‘Toobies’. Keep preppin’ and thinkin’!
We gotta remember the bigger picture. A few years of waiting might seem like an eternity to us, but in the history of mankind, those few years a but a split second. everything is relative.
My Relatives aren’t prepping.
So no new confirmed cases for a couple of weeks, and you all think it gone? People’s PPF has gone down a few notches because things seem quiet for less than a month?!
Look at the overall story of this virus. It appears in 1997, then goes underground for several years, then pops up in 2003. Since then it has been expanding its range and host species exponentially. Within this greater trend, there have been ups and downs, more active periods and lulls. Remember this summer there was a long period of quiet too.
Unless this virus changes its behavior, which has been quite consistent for years, we should expect to see it pop up again somewhere, some time relatively soon, ie the next few months.
If we go a year without seeing H5N1 in people, and also see it being contained in poultry, then I’ll start to relax a bit, and suspect the virus has changed its trajectory.
We are all wound up so tight about this that two weeks without major news feels like a long time, but it just ain’t much time at all folks!
What could have happened to make it go away? Do you think it mutated to a harmless form in the last 17 days all over the world? The only way it will become harmless is after it takes out everyone who is able to survive it. After Hong Kong it seemed to go under ground for 3 years, but it was still out there. Let it come slowly so that more people are able to prepare.
We’ve grown so accustomed to ‘information now’ that we find out within one day if there is news of a fresh H5N1 case, or not.
Goju, this drat virus is on it’s own timetable. In 1918, per the book by John Barry, it went ‘underground’ ie no fresh cases then just exploded with massive numbers.
That’s what I think many of us are holding our breath-waiting for the second shoe to fall,so to speak.
Or, it may have just gone away. I don’t think so, but it sure doesn’t ask me for advice!
All we can do is wait, plan, teach others and prepare. And hope.
I will never believe that there has not been any new cases since Ramadam began. I know there has. We just haven’t heard. The newspapers are going back to October 20th. That was the most current date. So everyone is on Holiday……but not H5N1. Then, we also had an article about 3 days ago, in the Indo Outbreak thread, speaking of Journalists being paid off to only report “positive, good news”. That really bummed me out.
Summer last year was very quiet, this year, cases have continued to trickle in. I don’t know what the temperature is like in the critical areas but here it’s particularly mild, maybe that is having an effect. I won’t begin to relax until numbers stay static for the winter months.
It IS a good sign that the number of bird cases seem to have fallen but since I haven’t logged bird deaths I don’t know for sure what the pattern was last year.
Everybody seems more touchy because of a lack of news. Perhaps we need confirmation that we haven’t been wasting time, money and the patience of our loved ones? Certainly it’s impossible to get others motivated if there isn’t anything kicking off.
So I’m taking the time to be a little more chilled and I keep in mind that BF isn’t guaranteed. Thank God.
Glaxo’s new commercial doesn’t give me the warm fuzzies.If it was much ado about nothing I wouldn’t expect that ad campaign.
I just wonder how people could surpress a virus this has infected millions of poultry and birds on our planet. Do you really think that all those bird have died or have been killed? It could have mutated to a form that is more difficult for humans to catch, but I suspect there are still plenty of birds infected with bird flu. Given that, it continues to mutated.
Data-driven analysts, which are most of us are, like to see smooth trends. Reality is more jagged. I think the lack of case reporting can be attributed to one of three things;
- natural variation of infection;
- lack of reporting due to religious holidays;
- Lack of reporting due to political interference;
Goju:
Your state just put up a new flu-ifo web site that advises its citizens to do nothing about preparing for a pandemic and says that they’ll letcha know if and when you should be worried about any such thing (and they’ll tell you what to do about it at that point, too!).
So yes, they apparently do know far more than we do and there is nothing to worry about.
Can this thread now switch over to discussing “Much Ado About Nothing,” as in the play by Shakespeare?
I like Shakespeare.
Monotreme:
Please add the great state of Connecticut to your City Triage List. Thank you.
I think the point of being prepared is we don’t have to “worry” about when “it” comes. We are ready.
It seems that egos are becoming attached to the fact “it” is coming and must come soon. We have extended ourselves with outside sources in an emphatic way and risk ridicule “if” it doesn’t happen.
Relaxing is a by product/reward of being prepared. Let’s enjoy and live without fear.
Medical Maven, a “gresed chute to hell”? Wow, aren’t you optimistic. Remind me to stay the heck away from your lifeboat.
The CT panflu website is at best terriblly done and at worst a death sentence to our residents. It is not something I am pround of.
I love this place and I love all you folks.
GOJU: “…So i ask… where’s the Pandemic?…”
Are you disappointed it has not arrived yet? Do you buy automobile insurance or fasten your seat belt expecting to get into a serious accident the next day? Do you buy health insurance expecting a fatal disease to strike quickly?
My point? Preparation is simply insurance against an unlikely event.
This forum has helped me prep but each day that goes by with everyone safe and sound is a good day. No disappoint ment here.
So instead of “Where’s the pandemic” How about “No pandemic! - cool” ??
Death takes a holiday.
Newsie at 10:40-You would have a very good time in my “lifeboat”. I have enough red wine to float it and enough battery power (rechargeable and not) to run through my extensive jazz collection night and day. It might be the Titanic, but believe me, the band would keep playing.
Seeing things as they are does not eschew merriment.
Pixie: Well, Much Ado is a tragi-comic drama, and I can’t think of a better match for this whole pan-flu mess.
GoJu-no one in my family is prepping and my state; Iowa is doing nothing too. My office where I spend all of my waking hours is doing nothing and I talked with them and gave them good data. I thought a few of them might get it. Doesn’t make me feel all warm and fuzzy that my office will fold real quick in a pandemic because they are incapable of looking/planning ahead and seeing different perceptions of reality.
I had given up trying to inform those around me and your energy on the forum had me give it another shot—still didn’t work. But I am still preparing. Going to go look at wood stoves today, won’t get one yet but the process is there and walgreens has water on sale—I’ll drink it regardless.
Newsie. To get in Medical Mavens lifeboat, you are going to have to push me out first. /:0)
ALl I know is whenever I start to relax a bit and start to question my sanity, something flares up. It happened with both Indo. outbreaks in May and August. I literally had just been saying to myself “we have A LOT of stuff. We might not need it. Nothing has happened…” Then BOOM - a few days later H5N1 does something unexpected.
I would LOVE to be proven wrong and have all my friends and family say “told you so.” Problem is, we have no way of knowing for certain. And beleive me I wish we did know - If I knew for certain it WILL happen, I’d crank things up, start screaming at the top of my lungs to get others to prep, etc. If I knew for certain it WILL NOT happen, I’d eat away at my preps but keep a certain level of suplies ready for any thing life may throw my way. As a former statistician, I dealt in probablities all the time. H5N1 has numbers I am not comfortable with. In the absence of any solid data directing me one way or the other, I’ll err on the side of caution for now.
How closely is your ego and identity tied up with Panflu?
If it doesnt happen, Do you become less?
I know i have been seeing the whole world through a pandemic filter for over a year. I do admit that i have some identity connected to it. It has been an obsession.
If it doesn’t happen, will I feel the fool? Perhaps some. Humbled a bit that my empotions took over the more logical side of me. But better that then going around telling other people “I told you this would happen.” And overall I no regrets about what I have done. I honestly don’t loose sleep over it (don’t even dream about it) and prepping has not taken up a signficant portion of my life. It has found a spot to fit into it comfortably without disrupting the rest.
This is partly why officials claim they can’t warn the public; if it doens’t happen right away they won’t believe us. Still doesn’t mean the risk has gone anywhere.
Interesting to watch adjustment reactions progress and change for people.
So many reasons people should be prepared; won’t hurt to be concerned enough to get prepared. We sure know we’re screwed in a pandemic year, so, we have to become more self-reliant. Will help cover smaller personal emergencies; people are on thin ice every day.
H5N1 owns a lot of live real estate. There are other problems lurking in the wings.
Sure doesn’t help us, that we want the public to know, and too many officials are so busy keeping them un-panicked (not taking any precautions they haven’t been told to take) that the public would rather believe the disingenuous reassurances.
Whether or when H5N1 mutates to become a pandemic strain is no more in our control than a coin toss. All we can do is acknowledge probabilities and act upon what we know. We are not unwise to have done so even if H5N1 does not become the next pandemic flu strain. We’re merely acting as if we know that a coin toss can come up either heads or tails and not just heads all the time just because that’s the way we want it.
It’s also the main reason there isn’t enough media coverage or people paying attention to it. There has been some coverage but nothing has happened, so editors and citizens alike think it really was “much ado about nothing.”
;-) This deserves a repeat; Craig wrote : I’ve been working on some lyrics. (Crediting Bobby McFerrin with the “Don’t worry, be happy” theme, of course.)
You should listen to us, ‘cause we’re the WHO
and we’ll tell you everything about the flu.
So all you people across the land,
just keep your head way down in the sand.
Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.
The virus is a changin’ all the time towards a pandemic it’s making its climb. It’s H to H but we don’t want you to think that we’re anywhere closer to the brink.
Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy. So all you people across the land, just keep your head way down in the sand. Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.
We’re stickin’ to the plan, stickin’ to Stage III
so you just keep up with your spendin’ spree.
We are gettin’ rid of stages IV and V;
you’d just be confused by all that jive.
Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.
They’re now in Siberia checkin’ on their plan but thankfully its beyond your attention span. Oh the birds this fall will be headin’ south, but you’ll be just fine; just don’t kiss ‘em on the mouth!
Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy. So all you people across the land, just keep your head way down in the sand. Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.
Those preppers they are a worrisome bunch how dare they operate on their hunch? (I do admit, though, that in a crunch they might be the only ones with a lunch.)
Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.
Two weeks of food is all you need! (But to be safe don’t forget the seeds.) We’ll all pull together to meet this fate! (Lets just ignore the current CFR rate.)
Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy. So all you people across the land, just keep your head way down in the sand. Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.
And when it hits we’ll claim dismay
who could have foreseen such a viral display?
Surviving the pandemic I hope I may,
but sad to say, we’ll find out some day.
Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy. So all you people across the land, just keep your head way down in the sand. Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.
You’ll want to line up for a pill or a shot
but it will be resistant to all we’ve got.
You’ll ask us in the winter where is the vaccine?
It won’t be here ‘til next Halloween.
Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.
Life will come to a standing still,
from this point on its all downhill.
Maybe we’ll stop this song right here
so we don’t install a sense of fear.
Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy. So all you people across the land, just keep your head way down in the sand. Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy. “
LauraB - I was astonished at the blandness of the CT flu site. There is no reason on earth why they could not have simply produced an “all hazards” site considering our proximity to NYC, the number of Fortune 100 companies headquartered here, threat of regular-old and bio-terrorism, the fact that we do endure some whopper storms over three several seasons here. There needen’t even be any reason for our officials to concentrate on H5N1 in order to produce a useful and informative web guide that could get our citizens better prepared for any emergency. Instead, it is almost as if they want to intentionally lull the public into complacency.
And I swear those people could not have attended the same pandemic flu conference that I attended. We must have stunt doubles for the governor and our top officials.
I am not at all surprised at what a joke the whole thing is - it reminds me of when I worked for big corporations and we’d have to go to a two-day long “Customer Satisfaction” seminar. In the end you’d leave with a nice big notebook full of pretty charts and diagrams, but nothing actionable. It just was a nice break from the usual office routine. The longer I live here the more I find that the state is full of lots of plain old vanilla types, not the hearty NE-types of VT or NH. Too many people wrapped up in making money (at least in Fairfield County). And it’s refelcted in our bland politicians. Time for us to move back to Berkely, or better yet, Seattle. They at least do have a clue there.
If Panflu doesn’t happen….I ditto Inky at 13:00. I stopped passing along information months ago. When I received no acknowledgement or thanks from anyone I was taking the time out to inform. Was it Nabarro that said “Good Luck with that”. That’s my motto.
Commonground – at 13:45 as it is said: When the student is ready the teacher will appear.
until they are ready to listen all the shouting will be for nothing. It is sad, but until a few hundred die somewhere, people will not take notice.
Each needs to prepare as they see fit. As far as all the emotional ups and downs, I would say “get used to it.” My personal intuitive SWAG “Scientific Wild Ass Guess” is December 2008 for the efficient H2H2H transmission. Expect a lot of flare ups and different size clusters, get ready for the rollercoaster ride of your life. I was really expecting it in October - December 2005. (So what do I know?)Got over it being immenent. I am planning for a civilization buster two years from now. What are you all prepping for?
James in MT – at 15:46 What are you all prepping for?
Again, my crank on my crystal ball is broken and the sun isn’t out for my solar crystal ball….. but
I was figuring on TSHTF around Feb-Mar 07. But I don’t think it will be a civilization buster- at least not to the US,EU (but possibly for India, China, Africa)
-More like just somewhere between 2% and 10% overall death rate.
Rotating power outages, sporadic supplies, school/church/sports closings Cities above a million or so will be “basket cases”.
LDC’s (less developed countries) will have higher death rates
Large developed countries rushing around with partially protective vaccines but not being able to distribute things to small countries (due to country quarantine, no enough health workers that can/will travel, citizens hiding at home..)
There will be needs to take care of the orphan children. Work programs aimed at helping agriculture, more out of the office and at home, less travel. Countries will become “isolationists”. Scientific research will be aimed at health related issues and environment and little or no spending in the “physical sciences”- People, that can, will move away from cities and the coasts. Politically people will become more “conservative” but with a socialistic view. The social security system will be in shambles since there will not be as many young people to support the old as they even estimate now. There will be a national sales tax since there will be more bartering than income.
China will be in disarray. Africa will have lots of small “tribal” governments. The US, Canada, and EU will survive mostly intact but will be busy taking care of their own and doing little world wide charity or “police work”.
But again what do I know……? It is hard to think clearly with this tin foil hat on.
looking for something to do? read http://www.worldchanging.com/book
DennisC, thank you for sharing a part of yourself. If this is a holographic universe, then each of us is like a single fractal that sees but a part of the picture. The world as seen through the eyes of one unique individual. That is cool, you were willing to put it out there for all to see.
Personally, I am prepping for the long haul. Hoping to be there in time. In my equation I have two more years to prepare and at this rate I will need all of it. Don’t have enough Heirloom Seeds yet. Don’t have an excellent wood burning cook stove yet, or a cabin to put it in. Maybe my wife and I will meet other like minded people and negotiate a PSG, as Dr. Woodson suggests. Perhaps others we meet, will have many of the things we don’t have, and what we have fills in some of what they missed.
Yes, if we head to hills when we can, to the best of our ability, we will be more apt to meet others who are doing the same thing. At the very least make a non-agression pact and a mutual aid pact. Keep it loose, yet present a united front.
James in MT – at 17:58
Yes, I headed to these hills about 14 years ago. I figured that as all the baby boomers retired they would still have dreams of being self sufficient and have a cabin in the woods (remember back in the 60′s and all the talk). Most will never do it but I figured the property values “in the hills” would go up faster than the average city. So far prices here have doubled or tripled in the last 14 years so my guess is about right (compared to where I was).
I hope you are right and you have 2 years. I think it will be less (Egypt may endup looking like Turkey did this spring- if you believe Niman’s sequence data). But I am hoping all my predictions are wrong and nothing ever happens in my lifetime. Today I place the oddes at 20% or so of it happening by late spring. - But we are all just guessing. I am only looking at historical trends and know flu’s normal mutation rate. It reminds me of “Wargames” the movie when the computer is trying to guess the launch codes. The virus is just running through millions of combinations day and night all over the world as I type.
Instead of seeds, I have been planting perenial (native or almost native) plants out in “my woods”. That way there is no garden that anyone can target. Nut trees take years to yield. If you haven’t gotten you cabin yet, make sure it has water. You can snuggle up on cold night but without water ans a septic tank you will really be in trouble.
It would seem that a pandemic is one way to change the world. I don’t see how the powers that be will surender their power back to the people, unless there is a civilization busting event.