Forum: Median Age Is14-everyones Concern

I feel like crying….

seacoast. I’m with you but we are not beat yet. The virus can change significantly before it becomes pandemic and we can change significantly before it comes to get us.

It is going to be tough sledding but there actually is a lot we can do to lessen the effects.

Great (said sarcastically)…

My 14 dd is the only one (in my immediate family) who thinks I’m the total nutjob. She thinks that I am fanatical about her washing her hands, when she comes home (and if you saw my house you would know that the last thing I am is a germ-a-phobe - of course, the overflowing closets and basement of preps are another story…) Honestly, I didn’t know that 14 was the median age (sigh). She’s the first to get locked in.

the whole thread is the title? Where did this come from? Obviously, I have missed this somewhere/somehow.

The median age has actually crept up a little since early 06. You can find the information in the Epidemiology of WHO-confirmed human cases of avian A(H5N1) infection document, which covers up to June 2006.

Demographic characteristics

“The median age of confirmed cases was 20 years. The age of cases ranged from 3 months to 75 years (n = 202). Half of the cases occurred among people aged <20 years; 90% occurred among those aged <40 years (Fig. 2). Among cases aged <10 years, 21 children were aged <5 years and 32 children were aged between 5 years and 9 years.”

“The overall case-fatality rate was 56%. The highest case fatality rate reported was 73%; this occurred among those aged 10–19 years (n = 49).”

I get a visceral reaction every time I think about this. This is also what I think about when I get fed up and want to quit, and then I can’t quit.

This shows the age and sex distribution in a more visual way.

Oh dear, My last 2 are 12+ and 14+. DH and I will be on the frontlines, I worry about bringing it home…

See also this, Human Avian Influenza H5N1 by Age Group and Outcome, July 2006.

The <10 age group bars are misleading as each includes only 5-year age group, whereas the other bars are 10-year groups. Just so you know.

anon-22, please know that I copied and sent your above information and graph to our local school superintendents and school boards. There are many of us learning from you and are spreading the word. Please don’t quit!

Thank you, anon_22.

My understanding is that this is very similar to the 1918 pattern, with a slight drift downward of *typical age*. I am assuming the downward drift in age is the significant factor… the something new. Considering this is the age group with the strongest immune systems, this doesn’t surprise me. The question I have to this WHO finding is that these are from countries where children of this age group, especially the <10 group, followed by the teen group, are already at the greatest morbidity and mortality risks. According to the report, things are typical to the 1918 fatalities… ie, short/accute onset followed by rapid (~5 day) death rate. What I find striking is females seem to be outnumbering males in this age group. In the <10 group, females would typically have greatest chance for survival “except” in those countries that do not value female life. That is interesting, IMO. IIRC, this is different. Also, these represent only cases confirmed and reconfirmed in laboratories with samples provided only by patients who presented symptoms of illness. So, we aren’t sure about these statistics because of several unkown variables, as well as some known variables (like population demographics ).

WHO also saying peak flu season in Northern Hemisphere is during periods of cold temps, and expecting to see increase in “cases” late 2006 or 2007. Assuming they mean avian flu cases… in Northern Hemisphere. That is interesting…

Not necessarily cold temps. There may be a correlation with decrease in Vitamin D. Google Vitamin D and influenza or Bird Flu

pfwag. Trust me…this thing is way more virulent then any treatment…naturopathic or synthetic.

I’ve got five kids in the “danger zone” … which has always been my primary motivator. It is also the primary reason that our family prefers to SIP as long as is realistically possible. I know that I could do more for my community, but our first responsibility is to the children that we’ve been blessed with … once we can ascertain whether or not we will be putting them at risk, then and only then will we take a more active role in the community during an outbreak.

Kathy- Everyone of your kids is our future, you are giving to the community by protecting them. IMO

anon_22:

The link to the WHO epidemiology data/graphs is a valuable one. Very succinct data. A great visual prompt.

I was wondering…do we still have our (FW’s) cumulative bar graph of confirmed fatalities somewhere? Seeing the WHO data, made me think that this summer, the bar graph will show a continued elevation instead of a plateau…BUT, that last WHO graph stopped too early to show it.

Do we still have one somewhere on this website?

Also keep in mind that in the countries hit hardest, children are often the primary keepers of poultry, etc. so they run some of the highest exposure rates, increasing their risks of catching it. While the 1918 example is truly frightening, and H5N1 does bear many similarities to that strain, there is no certainity that H5N1 will play out the same way if it goes H2H. However, just given the potential mortality rate from this thing, no matter who it hits hardest, I’m taking few chances and that’s why I’m prepping. What good is it to save my kids if their parents won’t be around to raise them?

I’ve got a 10yr old, a 13yr old, and a 17yr old. Large gulp. I agree with Kathy - these kids are my primary motivation.

One thing to keep in mind is that Indonesia and Vietnam have high levels of early childhood death rates.

The number one killer of children in third world countries is diarrhea caused by lack of clean water to drink. I’m not trying to be Pollyana here - but keep in mind that these children come from the poorest of the poor. Their mothers often have to deliver babies without adequate medical care.

A lot of these children are from rural villages and are children of subsistence farmers. They are malnourished, some of them lack even basic first aid care much less medical care, they lack clean water, clean homes, and healthy food and vitamins.

It breaks my heart to say these things but these children have major strikes against them, healthwise, without avian influenza being added to the mix.

These countries are working very hard to improve child death rates through higher immunization rates and better maternal medical care.

As mentioned above, some of these countries do not value females at all. What limited resources are available will go to male children. I’m not trying to provoke a debate on female/male equality - just simply stating the facts.

Two of my grandchildren are also in the age range. Yes, they will definitely SIP if/when the time comes. In the meantime, their mother is working hard on better nutrition, taking vitamins, hand washing and better personal hygiene. It’s a tough job but that’s what MOM is all about. She is also working hard to break some bad eating habits (yes, they are children of McDonalds) and getting them to eat more fruits and veggies in order to build better immune systems.

Do you think there is any realation to the younger children playing with birds, close to teh grounds, and the 10–19 year olds doing the butchering and de-feathering jobs??

Just a thought?

A statistic I read (maybe 6 months or more ago) stated that the H5N1 mortality rate on 15 year olds and younger, was 95%

Desert Dan - yes, I believe what you are stating is true.

After living in the third world for ten years, most children don’t go to school or if they do - they only go to fourth grade.

Children in these countries are put to work as soon as they can walk and carry. They are expected to help provide for their families. Most of the work they perform is tending cattle, poultry, and crops. They generally work from sunup to sundown.

Inner city children work in sometimes atrocious conditions. They often are used to polish metalware sold to tourists, to sew in sweatshops, to make shoes, etc. Oftentimes you will find them on the street selling fruits, gum, etc. Some of these children work at garbage dumps to pick usable items for their families to sell.

Not a very happy topic!

Does anyone know what percentage of the population in Indonesia, Thailand, Viet Nam, etc, is under 20? That might be a factor with these numbers. I’m not disagreeing with the figures, just trying to get all the relevant information.

I read in the NY Times the other day that in Zambia over 4 of every 10 people is under the age of 15. (Something close to half of the population is under 15 — hard to imagine.) In more developed nations, the number is about 2 of every 10. If TSHTF, countries like Zambia will be devastated if the median age stays at around 14.

The Times story was about child labor. Stunning. 9-year-olds working all day crushing rocks into gravel for cement.

nsthesia – at 09:20 anon_22:

“I was wondering…do we still have our (FW’s) cumulative bar graph of confirmed fatalities somewhere?”

It’s here on this Demographics page

anon-22 thanks for finding this. It will be included in a presentation to our county school nurses and their assistants. When we get to the other side of this (panflu), we will discover that fluwiki would have been responsible for many lives saved.

Milo – at 12:28 Does anyone know what percentage of the population in Indonesia, Thailand, Viet Nam, etc, is under 20?

Indonesia: 0–14 years: 29%
Thailand: 0–14 years: 22%
Vietnam: 0–14 years: 27%

See https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/

Dennis in Colorado – at 14:11. Thanks! I’ll bookmark the factbook. Very handy.

Milo — at 14:11 - Here’s my post of yesterday on the IndonesiaOutbreakIII thread at 06:54. Thank you for all the efforts to produce a tracking means of the sick in Indonesia. When we get to the stage where you have found the best way to do it, could we have a look at the distribution of the ages of the victimes (dead or suspected)? It seems to me that the majority are very young children and babies, the other peak being young adults. Normal flu does that, but I thought H5N1 did not exhibit a preference for tender flesh, since no-one in the world has immunity. So, whenever, would anyone talented in stats please make a distribution graph to see if there’s any significant deviation? And venture explanations why that would be, that is if indeed my observation proves true? (And also maybe by sex/age?). Thank you.

There’s a good recap of all cases up to 28 August on Indonesia Outbreak Case Summaries. If you are able to calculate SDs and the like, I’m a taker (smile!) - as I’m sure others are too!

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