One of the posters was looking at the Thai figures and may have been spooked by them. In the steps of the wonderful FluWikians on the Indonesian thread, I thought may be we could have a go sorting out Thailand. I looked at the source again Thai figures, and could not make much sense. So I organized some of the data in table form. The thing is, I’m just not terribly good at maths. So I reproduce the figures here, and hopefully one of you can make more sense than I was able to, save that I think the table shows that as time passes, the Thais are more organised; see towards end August, they look like they are now testing in batches. I’m willing to compile the figures daily or every other day. We might need to get more info to do something as good as the Indonesian guys and gals! But I don’t know where/how to fish out more info. What I’d like to find out are the percentages of the people tested vs. the suspect numbers, the numbers cleared (negative) of BF, etc. (any other ideas?) Any maths wizard among us that wants to take up the challenge?
First column = date
Second column = Cumulative numbers of people under surveillance
Third column = Today’s reports (in other words, the number added to the cumulative numbers of the previous day)
Fourth column = Suspects awaiting lab results
Fifth column = Day of the week, remarks
August, 1 2154 0 0 Tuesday
2 2318 164 279 Wednesday
3 2411 93 259 Thursday
4 2551 140 311 Friday
5 2681 130 337 Saturday
6 2778 97 394 Sunday
7 2931 153 378 Monday
8 3051 120 2643 Tuesday, typo ?
9 3191 140 423 Wednesday
10 3353 162 481 Thursday
11 3501 148 527 Friday
12 3549 48 311 Saturday
13 3631 82 191 Sunday
14 3671 40 178 Monday
15 3769 98 210 Tuesday
16 3856 87 182 Wednesday
17 3922 66 182 Thursday
18 4023 101 182 Friday
19 4061 38 182 Saturday
20 4077 16 89 Sunday
21 4156 79 100 Monday
22 4231 75 115 Tuesday
23 4276 45 74 Wednesday
24 4354 78 74 Thursday
25 4401 47 74 Friday
26 4434 33 74 Saturday
27 4447 13 74 sunday
28 4479 32 67 Monday
29 4506 27 67 Tuesday
(Oh boy, I hope it shows OK…)
It looked better in the sandbox :-(. Another try…
August, 1 2154 0 0 Tuesday 2 2318 164 279 Wednesday 3 2411 93 259 Thursday 4 2551 140 311 Friday 5 2681 130 337 Saturday 6 2778 97 394 Sunday 7 2931 153 378 Monday 8 3051 120 2643 Tuesday, typo ? 9 3191 140 423 Wednesday 10 3353 162 481 Thursday 11 3501 148 527 Friday 12 3549 48 311 Saturday 13 3631 82 191 Sunday 14 3671 40 178 Monday 15 3769 98 210 Tuesday 16 3856 87 182 Wednesday 17 3922 66 182 Thursday 18 4023 101 182 Friday 19 4061 38 182 Saturday 20 4077 16 89 Sunday 21 4156 79 100 Monday 22 4231 75 115 Tuesday 23 4276 45 74 Wednesday 24 4354 78 74 Thursday 25 4401 47 74 Friday 26 4434 33 74 Saturday 27 4447 13 74 sunday 28 4479 32 67 Monday 29 4506 27 67 Tuesday
Horrible…
| August, | 1 | 2154 | 0 | 0 | Tuesday |
| 2 | 2318 | 164 | 279 | Wednesday | |
| 3 | 2411 | 93 | 259 | Thursday | |
| 4 | 2551 | 140 | 311 | Friday | |
| 5 | 2681 | 130 | 337 | Saturday | |
| 6 | 2778 | 97 | 394 | Sunday | |
| 7 | 2931 | 153 | 378 | Monday | |
| 8 | 3051 | 120 | 2643 | Tuesday, typo? | |
| 9 | 3191 | 140 | 423 | Wednesday | |
| 10 | 3353 | 162 | 481 | Thursday | |
| 11 | 3501 | 148 | 527 | Friday | |
| 12 | 3549 | 48 | 311 | Saturday | |
| 13 | 3631 | 82 | 191 | Sunday | |
| 14 | 3671 | 40 | 178 | Monday | |
| 15 | 3769 | 98 | 210 | Tuesday | |
| 16 | 3856 | 87 | 182 | Wednesday | |
| 17 | 3922 | 66 | 182 | Thursday | |
| 18 | 4023 | 101 | 182 | Friday | |
| 19 | 4061 | 38 | 182 | Saturday | |
| 20 | 4077 | 16 | 89 | Sunday | |
| 21 | 4156 | 79 | 100 | Monday | |
| 22 | 4231 | 75 | 115 | Tuesday | |
| 23 | 4276 | 45 | 74 | Wednesday | |
| 24 | 4354 | 78 | 74 | Thursday | |
| 25 | 4401 | 47 | 74 | Friday | |
| 26 | 4434 | 33 | 74 | Saturday | |
| 27 | 4447 | 13 | 74 | sunday | |
| 28 | 4479 | 32 | 67 | Monday | |
| 29 | 4506 | 27 | 67 | Tuesday |
FrenchieGirl - thanks for the great job (and the perseverance;-)
WIT
Frenchiegirl - that was me that was spooked! Thank you so very much for doing this for us. Thailand scares me to death due to the high rates of AIDS in that country as well. Immunosupressed folks won’t have a chance with this killer.
It is interesting that we have not heard a peep (sorry for the inappropriate word) from Laos.
Thanks again!
The good news (such as it is) is that the number of new observed/potential cases has dropped way off recently. The other good news is that the Tahi gov’t seems to be much more forthcoming with information than Indonesia has been. Doesn’t mean they can stop it, but I think they’ll be much more likely to cry out for international help than the Indo. gov’t will.
Bluebonnet – at 15:35 - I tried, but now we need a maths (and excel) wizard. I’m spooked enough about Indonesia, so I flatly refuse to let myself be panicked by Thailand until we can get meaningful figures. Trouble will come soon enough, I’m not going to scare myself s***less on foggy data. As for Laos, I don’t know if there’s anything much we can get at for the moment. Will think about it.
FrenchieGirl - this looks like a lot of time and work! Thank you. I’m leery of Thailand for the same reasons as Bluebonnet, population density, sky-high rates of immunosuppresive diseases like aids/hepatitis…spooky in potential.
FrenchieGirl- Third times a charm. Nice work. Are we to assume that all these people tested negative? Or would they keep the + to themselves?
Based purely on what you’ve provided Frenchie, we can’t say with any certainty how many cases have been dismissed or are positive. It simply shows how many suspect cases and how many are awaiting testing. We can only make supositions that the missing figures are due to two possibilities - 1) many suspect cases have been dismissed, or 2)they are hiding positive cases. However, my HO is that if this much info was made public, the gov’t would have a hard time hiding so many positive cases - too much scrutiny by local media, etc. My guess is that the # of cases waiting results does not correspond with new daily cases because test results take a few days. The others are dismissed, possibly without any testing at all. I’ll take a look at your link later (after the kids are in bed) to see if there is anything else that can be gleaned from the data. Pre-mom stage I was a stats jock so I love this stuff.
As I said before, the lack of data from Indonesia (other than what has been culled by fluwikians, etc.)is more frightening to me. They won’t admit TS has HitTheFan until TS has become too hard and encrusted for removal.
Okay - the kids are still happily watching a movie.
Frenchie - where did you find those numbers? Since I don’t read Tahi fluently (lol!) I was not able to find them.
It is also important to note that in the main page (in English) it states that the cummlative #of cases is for the entire year, not just this month. if they had 4000+ cases in August alone I’d definitely be more worried. Currently they only have 67 suspect cases and two deaths so far this year, both recently.
LauraB — at 10:20. I found the figures here Thai figures, it’s not written in Thai though. In the http address you just change the last numbers to correspond to whatever date you wish. I extracted them from the text. For example, on 30 August 2006, this is what I read: (I’ve bolded the figures that I have used in the table)
I. Avian Influenza in human situation 2006
Since January 1, 2006 to August 29, 2006, the Bureau of Epidemiology has received reports of influenza or pneumonia cases in Avian Influenza Surveillance Network from the Provincial Health Offices and Disease Prevention and Control Regional Offices. The investigation and analysis were summarized as follows:
1. Cumulative number of patients under surveillance are 4,506 cases 71 provinces. Today reports are 27 cases; Seven cases from Sukho Thai, 4 from Chiangrai, 3 each from Nonthaburi, Pathumthani, Chainat and Amnatcharoen, and 1 each from Bangkok metrpolis, Suphanburi, Nakhonpathom, Chaingmai, Lamphun, Lampang, Phitsanulok and Nakhonsawan.
2. Confirmed human case of avian influenza 2006 = 2 cases, with 2 death cases.
· The first death case, reported from Phichit province, Tabklo district is 17 years old male. He had onset on July 15, 2006 and died on July 24, 2006.
· The second death case, reported from Uthai Thani province, Sawang Arom district is 27 years old male. He had onset on July 24, 2006 and died on August 3, 2006.
There are 67 cases under investigate reported, of which waiting for laboratory result.
Conclusion:
· In 2005, there are 5 confirmed human cases of avian influenza, with 2 death cases.
· In 2006, there are 2 confirmed human dead cases of avian influenza.
So the headers of my tables are
First column = date
Second column = Cumulative numbers of people under surveillance - that is the first number I fish out from the Thai report
Third column = Today’s reports (in other words, the number added to the cumulative numbers of the previous day) - that is the second number I fish out from the Thai report
Fourth column = Suspects awaiting lab results - That is the third number I fish out form the Thai report
Fifth column = Day of the week, remarks
Closed to maintain Forum speed.