“Civilization Buster” is a phrase we all pass around here, but we really don’t actually talk about much. It seems like the idea is so frightening, even to us preppers, that we can’t talk about it, can’t quite imagine it, and are afraid to even begin to plan strategies for dealing with it.
Being a New Englander, folks who tend to be pretty self reliant and community oriented, I’m actually starting to imagine some scenarios where groups of people could get together and be OK. Maybe we can avoid the Mad Max world. Maybe, if we think about this ahead of time, there will be enough people who have visualized something better.
Sure, I think we will need to plan for breakdown of law and order, food shortages, no electricity, having to purify our water, heating with wood and so forth. But humans survived for tens of thousands of years without any of these things and did just fine. Panic is our worst enemy as it will lead mostly to irrational behaviors. Our brains are what have gotten us here as a species. Let’s use them.
What exactly might happen if PF is a “civilization buster”. We have talked about loss of electricity and food shortages and a bit about the water issue, but we have not talked much about how to handle social breakdown. Can we flesh this out some more? Lets plan strategies to mitigate all this, starting with how we cope with a break down in law and order.
Anyone have ideas?
In the town of 15k where I live there was discussion within the PD to plan for willing CCW (concealed weapon permit) holders to be deputized. Rational is that these people have undergone FBI background checks and have demonstrated a minimum competancy with their handgun. This was inside info from the PD. Discussion about whether this would be done by the sherrif or PD. Still up in the air. We are a one road in-one road out town.
Annon,
In Arkansas, they are discussing this openly:
Arkansas County Sheriff Allen Cheek agreed. The Sheriff’s Department has “10 fulltime deputies right now. If a pandemic hits here, I feel sure I will have to deputize some people — maybe a lot of people. Those people are going to need training.”
Cheek said he would start compiling a list of potential deputies and a list of the training courses they would need this week.
From the: De Witt Era- Enterprise
October 18, 2006.
Smaller ruraL communities should be better able to deal with all this than large cities, at which point would they be too small to survive though?
In parts of Savannah as well. We heard a presentation by a CDC doctor entitled “Planning for a severe pandemic.”
Annon for this post - at 21:02
Hmm - are you in rural OR, by any chance? I live in a valley with one main town, pop. 17K, one road in/one road out. But there isn’t a real PD here.
EOD – at 22:33
Smaller ruraL communities should be better able to deal with all this than large cities, at which point would they be too small to survive though?
That’s a good question. I think it depends on how self-sufficient a community can be. Is there sufficient fresh water and tillable soil in close proximity to the city/town to support the entire population? Is there a source of electricity that will remain operational? Is there a hospital that is well-prepared? Are there stockpiles of antibiotics and other basic medical supplies?
Initial suvival will depend on food and water, but longer term, access to power and medical care will be essential. Without OB-GYNs and antibiotics, pregnant women and small children will die in droves. A small coummunity will then slowly die out.
The best place to be will be in the biggest city that is able to preserve its critical infrastructure and essential personnel. I don’t know what for sure what size that is.
Dark Horse – at 22:37
Did the CDC doc define “severe”? What were they assuming would be the attack rate and the case fatality rate?
I worry more from the law enforcement background. If we thought people behaved badly in Katrina, what how are they going to react to seeing all the death and destruction? I’ve had several conversations with other law enforcement officers who are prepared to defend theirs to the death. But what if it is your neighbor pounding on your door? I’m sure we will have groups who get together to live and help each other just a we will have groups who band together to take what the other have. I think a group survival will depend on having those who will work together be it growing food, to those to protect their ‘communities’ supplies. The Govt couldn’t help with Katrina which only afect less than 5% of the states, let alone a worldwide situation. If it happens may God be with all of us here.
I think we are screwed. I have had this conversation with a few other people and that is their concensus also.
We have 14,000 people and 22 LEO. One main road in and one out but many smaller back roads.
Bordering two maybe three cities of 80,000 to 100,000. Known gang activity.
I think arming citizens is a good call. I also think local fish and game. I am not sure if the PD has a copy of all gun owners as you don’t need a license for personal use (I think).
Regular folk, DGI, will never believe it if you tell them they have to defend themselves. Heck they don’t even think the pandemic is real
Does it matter what really the size of the city, town or community is,,,,,,,is if it gets so bad that the grid falls, no food deliverys, death rate above 10 or 20% of the population,,,,,,it will be a Mad Max world,,,,filled with elderly people and youngsters. Not a great way to build a sandwich
Birdie Kate – at 23:22 said “I think arming citizens is a good call. I also think local fish and game.”
Just what we need, fish, deer, and raccoons shooting at us.
anonymous – at 00:24
LOL!
People who venture forth with guns in their hands will die in short order. Near my house, if you are armed and minding your own business, you will be watched and let alone to pass. Draw that gun and aim it at an unarmed person and (if not in self defense) you will be killed for lawless behavior on the spot. The world will not have a lot of time to figure things out…so be polite and be careful. It will be up to neighborhoods to protect each other. If gangs out and about they will die of the bird flu. It does not matter if their motives are simply feeding a starving family or taking advantage of anyone they can get the drop on. The appearance of a person with a firearm aimed at my neighbor who is in their home is enough for a long range scope shot for them. But an unarmed/armed person standing in the street yelling that they need help will receive a handout from me - as long as it lasts. It all depends on how you choose to approach the solution to a problem. I will give what I can and I will not suffer threats to life. Sorry to be so graphic. I personally don’t think that it will come to a world like that. I think people will mostly just die in quiet, desperate, isolation…afraid to move.
What about a post pandemic world? I hope we will have a vaccine and a great job market and a better understanding of living in harmony with nature. It is foolish to predict that all this infrastructure will be destroyed by a virus. If it gets destroyed it will be by the hands of people. It will also be in the hands of people to stop this behavior. There are a lot of good people in the world, ordinary folk, who will be your new best friends. We will be depending on each other as never before. We will be working to rebuild and educate as never before. We will not insult scientist, intellectuals, and people who know how to get things done. We must be less tolerant of all “isms” that would enslave you to ignorance and unlimited growth. Corporate globalism will be discredited as a tool of corporate greed, that promised much, but gave no security for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. If we don’t learn to see past the speeches, lies and disinformation in this world and take our civic responsibility to find out the truth, vote, and volunteer to make this world a better place after a panflu, then there is no hope for the USA. We have been given in the blood, inspiration, and the genius of our forefathers in the United States an opportunity that is fast slipping past us. We have not been good stewards of our heritage, we have been hedonists. We are too stupid, too lazy, too self indulgent and too sure of ourselves. Maybe this is our generations wake up call? Worldwide, we have too many children. We have too many people. In a post pandemic world some of these most basics of harmonies in an ecosystem will have been addressed by this planet’s ecosystem. I sincerely hope that we can learn from this. If we do not learn moderation in all things, we will never survive as a species.
Dude – at 00:40
Well, why don’t you tell us what you *really* think! Just kidding; that was very insightful, thank you.
That’s Just Ducky! – at 00:49
Hey, I am shy…grin.
TY
I see difficult times should the pandemic happen but what I don’t see is total chaos. If only 5% of the people are prepped that means 95% are all in the same situation. Imagine that number for a minute. Now take countries like India, China or Indonesia where they have had to endure severe hardships. They’ve managed to exist or at least 95% have even if the lifestyle is back to the basics. Their culture has prepared them better than North Americans who most would admit are living “in the moment” and not thinking about tomorrow. But they will learn quickly. This is a continent that has seem more change in the past 100 years than probably any other.
We may not have what we want but I do believe with 95% struggling to stay alive, fed and housed 99% of those not killed by the flu will thrive. We have to believe in one another or we will fear each other. Isolated incidents will happen but we must realize the risk is there no matter what we do and its always been there. I think fear will kill more than the disease or violence.
It may be odd for an engineer to suggest this, but the basic essential for civilization is the rule of law. The basic essential for high-tech industrial civilization is recognition of and ironclad respect for individual rights, especially property rights. In short, what we will need most after a collapse of civilization are good philosophers and ethicists.
The present decline of philosophy, the most important subject there is, is one major reason why we find ourselves in this fix.
It may be odd for an engineer to suggest this, but the basic essential for civilization is the rule of law. The basic essential for high-tech industrial civilization is recognition of and ironclad respect for individual rights, especially property rights. In short, what we will need most after a collapse of civilization are good philosophers and ethicists.
The present decline of philosophy, the most important subject there is, is one major reason why we find ourselves in this fix.
It won’t depend on us or our ideals or ideas.
Saw “Marie Antionette “ the movie,yesterday. While it stopped at the King Queen and their children leaving Versailles to flee, we all know what happened in the French Revolution. There were some idealists, and there was the terror. The Russians had a whack at it and look what happened. The Chinese ditto. I’m afraid human nature is not perfectable to that degree. We will muddle along if it turns worse case. I’m a cynic in that respect. Otherwise am optimistic that it won’t fall apart at the seams. The center will hold.
Diana-
Respectfully, I disagree. The center will not hold because there are no ideals to hold onto. Lack of ideas and ideals will be our undoing. What will hold are those isolated locations where people hold those ideals.
The USA has no congruent center any longer.
It’s becoming Balkanized to a high degree socioeconomically and culturally.
I don’t believe the center will hold in a catastrophic event because of this Balkanization.
And I’m planning accordingly.
Robert Heinlein saw this coming and predicted it- see his novel “Friday” one of the few late-in-life books of his I really liked.
Just read the headlines, anyday, if you can stand it.
Every other week there’s a school shooting though why we even have school now is beyond me because kids are not learning anything. If they express an interest in learning they are mocked and teased, often by their “teachers.” Good teachers are being driven out because the the riduculous testing system. If they survive school, children are at an ever increasing risk of being abused or molested. Yeah, they have “stranger-danger” programs-what a joke! Its not strangers! Its clergymen, estranged parents, bus drivers, even politicians. People who are supposed to be looking after the kids.
Our food is unhealthy and often contaminated. The water is contaiminated, the air is contaiminated. Mothers’ breast milk is contaiminated.
Our country is supposivily at war though no one is quite sure who the enemy is or even why we’re fighting, just that a lost of good brave people are dying for a political whim.
How many people can put a meal on the table without buying something allready pre-cooked?
How many are debt free?
How many know their cultural/regional/ancestrial/ethnic heritage?
How many can or do care for their elderly/sick/children by themselves in their homes?
I’m thinking our civilization is allready busted.
Monotreme – at 22:58
Have you read the Preparedness Response Guide thread?
And, if small isolated areas couldn’t survive… how do you explain the growth of the USA? (Most of my relatives, prior to my generation, were delivered at home in the middle of the remote Oklahoma or Tennessee foothills.) Even today, many of the people in larger cities have migrated from smaller populated areas. I think anyplace or anybody that is able to maintain “any sort of” critical infrastructure will stand a better chance of survival. There will be challenges on every level, in every situation. Another example… last years hurricanes. Difference in cities and rural areas handling of the aftermath is very diverse. It didn’t have as much to do with “size” as it had to do with leadership and community comaradity. You can also “see” this in historical examples from various wars across the globe… how people, communities, countries “made it work” in very extreme circumstances.
In times that are dire give me a lucky, charismatic leader, and I will show you a community that survives. Most people are followers, and they become even more so when TSHTF, (IF they have somebody who can inspire them and lead them). Some of us here on this site may have to take up that mantle whether we want to or not.
MM… I think we already are! ;) I know, I know… when TSHTF.
I agree with Green Mom in many respects, and with others on various points. However,whatever has happened, and I admit I am continually shocked by the difference between our ideal U.S. and what has been happening I feel that there are people who will pull us through it. Perhaps they are minor figures now. All systems are corrupted to one degree or another. I used to have a romanticized view of Tibet. Then I read up on it and was shocked. The elite literaly still had serfdom in place. It was similar to medeival times. After their flight The CIA funded both the Dalai Lama and the people who followed him out of Tibet. They were the elite, the priveledged. While China has done dreadful things in Tibet, it was no worse than what they did to their own., and monstrous things happened under both systems.Wherever there are people there are inequities. All people are not created equal, Even the northern Scandinavian countries who seem to have pulled it off have major problems with immigrants. Without a pandemic we are still pulled in every direction. All of us with ideals will follow them as best we can .Yesterday I saw “Queen “ with Helen Mirren. Elizabeth 11 functioned perfectly in her role as Queen. She thought she understood the English people. She followed the rules and she is an expert on protocol but the people forced her to show what they considered honor due to the dead, a flawed woman who had touched their hearts. It must have been humiliating to be humbled. I think all our leaders need to be humbled every now and again. Nature is humbling us. Some here are activists, others influence with the force of their personalities, to what degree is debatable. Only time will show what effect anyone has had on the world around them, and only time will reveal what nature has in store for us.
LMWatBullRun – at 14:00 “ In short, what we will need most after a collapse of civilization are good philosophers and ethicists. “
I tend to disagree with this. Look back at the Pilgrams for example. They took people that were farmers, doctors, bankers, carpenters, shopkeepers, tailors, clergy, blacksmiths, shoe & harness makers; with them, to start the Colonies….people with the skills to start over.
Pardon my saying so; but Philosophers & Ethicists, does not a full table make.
We would need farmers, machanics, doctors, nurses, electrical engineers, linemen, water people, law enforcement people, etc…to get our collective hienies back in gear, & back on the Grid of the Surviving.
I’ll take a farmer over a Philosopher anyday.
Anyone can be a Philosopher, just down a few cold ones.
We need folks like Gene Logdson and Wendel Berry-both qualify as Farmers AND philosophers!
LMWattBullRun has it right. You have to have a solid ethical base for the community at large in order to augment the “law and order” component of your society. All of the policeman in the world will not help a city that is full of amoral, chaotic people.
And before any productive activity can be achieved, whether it be the growing of food or commerce in general, you have to have law and order. It is senseless to engage in such activities before that conditon is created (law and order).
The shamans in ancient cultures were critical to the survival of their people. And the pilgrims came over to America for religious freedom. How long would they have lasted without their “philosophy” (religion)? You need spiritual leaders, the iron hand of the law, and an agreed set of principles when times get very, very tough.
There had better be some wholesale conversions to some sane philosophy when TSHTF.
Medical Maven - at 9:30:
While it is true that the first immmigrants to this country came looking for the freedom to follow their beliefs that they were denied elsewhere, they needed help from practical men who were not spiritual leaders, but military leaders, to help get them out of the messes they enountered and sometimes made for themselves.
In Jamestown, the immigrants made quite a big mess of things and it was John Smith, a strong personality who had spent part of the voyage over in leg irons, that got them out of it with his extensive background in military organization and acumen.
In Plymouth, it was Miles Standish, who was not one of the “Saints” or Puritans, as we call them, but instead was one of the “Strangers,” a professional soldier who was hired in Holland (where he had been fighting and had happened to meet some of the Separatists). His leadership was a key factor in the survival of Plymouth Colony. Coincidentally, when the Pilgrims got terribly ill with mystery illnesses, pneumonia, and TB, Miles Standish was one of the only people who never got sick.
Pixie-Oftentimes the “iron hand of the law” and the “spiritual elite” are mutually exclusive. But you have got to have both for a community that can survive desperate times. Sometimes I think that maybe all that separated us from the Neanderthals was our propensity for spirituality. If there is something greater than yourself, you can survive those who are contained WITHIN themselves.
Local currencies might both prevent and mitigate disruption:
Not that we don’t need law and order and ethics (although morality can certainly exist in the absence of religious beliefs), but, personally, I’m hoping to avoid both the “iron hand of the law” and the “spiritual elite.” When either group inherits too much power (unchecked power), their agents are prone to corruption and brutality. They scare the hell out of me.
Scaredy Cat at 10:44-I understand where you are coming from. But in the lesser of two evils (absent a representative republic with checks and balances) I will take my chances with the “law and order” crowd over the chaos that anarchy breeds.
And you have to pair morality with government in some manner in order to avoid an evil tyranny. There are such things as benevolent monarchies though they seldom outlast individual kings, but that may be the best we can hope for in the near to medium term.
Medical Maven at 10:58 -
Hmm, yeah, I’d probably take my chances with the “law and order” crowd if chaos is the only alternative. I’m still hoping (perhaps vainly) to avoid both.
Also, while I wholeheartedly agree that “you have to pair morality with government in some manner in order to avoid an evil tyranny,” I just don’t think we necessarily need the “spiritual elite” to make this happen.
I agree that philosophy and ethics are not sufficient to provide for survival of civilization, but they ARE critical necessities. It may well be that the Founders of the Reborn Republic will be those skilled both in the trades and in the science of ideas, as Adams, Franklin and Jefferson were.
A certain grounding in physical reality seems to be required in order to have effective philosophy, witness Eric Hoffer, who was a longshoreman before he published “the True Believer”, or Ben Franklin, who was a printer and experimenter. John Adams was a farmer, as was Jefferson, who was also an architect and builder. One of the differences between 1800′s USA and today’s USA is that the average farmer or journeyman tradesman could discuss the philosophy of government, understood the philosophical underpinnings of the Revolution, and was vitally interested in their government.
One of the reasons, in my judgment, that we are in our present position, is that vanishingly few people today are interested in these things. Further, the science of ideas is in wide disrepute, and most people disparage everything to do with ideas; they stick to concretes wherever possible. Philosophy is the foundation of freedom. It’s not democracy per se that makes freedom possible. What makes freedom an enduring institution is a populace educated in the philosophy essential to support it, and which actively teaches and debates those ideas. Lacking that, freedom is doomed.
For those interested in contemplating the aftermath of a collapse of civilization I commend to your attention Steve Stirling’s “Dies the Fire” series.
Scaredy Cat, most people are followers, and they need direction, especially in desperate times. A spiritual elite will rise to the occasion just as some pragmatic leader or oligarchy will rise to the occasion. These two groups will most certainly not be the “status quo” before panflu. It will be a new regime, one adapted to the radically changed conditions. “Position power” will matter little in such conditions, the fluff and the buffer will be gone. RESULTS will be required each and every day.
LMW at 11:35 - Well said, and for the most part, I agree with what you say.
MM, Darn. I just spent 10 minutes writing a paragraph on the “spiritual elite,” but then decided not to post it. Now I don’t have much time. Anyway, what I was trying to say (in my disappeared paragraph) is that a problem with the “spiritual elite” is that you (generic “you”) have no way of knowing what they truly believe. Some of them (and some of those who use them as political props) are terribly corrupt, or powerfully persuasive con artists, so you (generic again) ought to be careful and judge them not by words, but by behavior.
Again, and I know I’m having difficulty articulating it, I think my main problem is that a “moral leader” doesn’t necessarily have to be a “spiritual leader.”
Scaredy Cat-Don’t get hung up on “hypocrisy”, that will always be with us. Hypocrisy is not an excuse for eschewing moral standards. And whether you have a moral leader or a spiritual leader both promote moral standards and both types of leaders are just as liable to fall prey to hypocrisy. But the community has to have high, inculcated goals of behavior in order to have any hope of maintaining order DURING DESPERATE TIMES.
It is the early behavior modification, the societal sanctions for transgressing that behavior, and the high expectations for behavior that are important.
And, sad to say, most of Western Civilization has fallen down these past few decades on all of the above requirements.
What all of you want is never what we get. The people who will emerge as our leaders are in place. Not much to choose from on the National level. Hopefully there will be newcomers in place on the local level who have character and the necessary charisma to win elective office.
Diana-
With utmost respect, I point out that your views of a path forward appear to me to be constrained by your present paradigm.
Consider- If there is a partial or total collapse of civilization, there will be no national media; there will be no national travel. There will likely be no single nation. Going 15 miles into town will become an all-day trip by foot. Leadership will be completely local. Democracy may or may not be the means by which leaders are selected. Some may self-appoint, some may be elected by a warm-body electorate, while other locations may place a constraint on exercise of the franchise. Many other places will not have any sort of coherent government at all. There will be no national organization of any sort; there will likely be very limited state organization, and only limited county-wide organization.
Virtually all of the organization will be on a neighborhood basis, say within 15 minutes walking distance. In any case, I agree with you that such local politics will depend to a large extent on the integrity and character of the persons involved.
Now, in the event of a general collapse of the economy and of government I can guarantee that individual rights will be upheld for everyone within 700 yards of my position as long as I am breathing. That comes before everything else. That is exactly what I want and I will have it. If I have to cope with a pandemic and the collapse of civilization, so be it, but if I do have to pay that price, I will ensure that freedom survives. I suspect that others here have similar intentions and capabilities.
Oremus - LMAO, truer words were never said. I think the big difference in being self sufficient is that our ancestors grew up that way, generation after generation all knew those basic survival skills. Which is funny in itself, today we think of those things as survival skills, they didn’t really THINK about them at all, it was just part & parcel of life. Today, we have third generation people who only know to get food at KFC or Mickey D’s. Part of my work is overseeing the large food pantry we operate, we give out about 1100 lbs of food a day, helping around 500 families per month. We used to automatically give out such things as rice & dried beans but now let those be items of choice. One day I received a phone call from a lady who was very angry that we had given her “bad beans”. I asked what was wrong with them and she said, “I cooked them all day long and they had never softened up & ended up throwing them out.” I asked her how she had cooked them? “Well, I put them in a pan with a little oil and cooked them, I fried them for hours and all they did was burn.” This is very typical of people in the inner cities, and especially those who have lived depending upon others to support & help them. After that I started a program of basic cooking classes for the community and every new group/class is the same, many literally do not know how to boil water or cook anything from scratch. I don’t even want to think about their knowledge and skills in growing their own food, I can well picture many opening a can of corn and planting the kernels. And there will not be time for them to learn from their mistakes.
And if you think things got bad after Katrina, imagine that multiplied across the whole country and with people who on their 3rd day of no food realize that NO ONE is coming to the rescue.
EOD-
Concur. Which is why I think that if the grid goes down in a big city there will be mass chaos, and why I am prepared to deal with starving panicked looters. But there is much more to it.
We need to be thinking a bit further ahead than that. Horrible as the start of a pandemic may be, how much worse if we fail to rebuild better than before afterwards? Each person who sees this threat as real must ask “Am I willing to just give up? Am I willing to prepare myself not just for the event but the aftermath?” That is where the difference will be made if there is a collapse; that is where future generations will be shaped, in the knowledge of honor and ethics, in the IDEALS that you teach and hand down.
In today’s world, the individual means little.
In the aftermath of a very severe pandemic, when many of the current paradigms have been utterly shattered, each person has the potential to profoundly reshape the world they live in. The collapse of civilization will be fertile soil for the growth of ideas, new and old alike. What ideas will grow in that soil? What memes will we pass down? How will you shape the world around you?
Make no mistake, every person reading these words will, either consciously or unconsciously, shape the aftermath of a pandemic. Medical Maven is right, only those ideas which are inculcated bone-deep will survive the stress of a very severe pandemic. We each need to think about what those ideas and ideals are going to be. They will be the foundation of everything else.
While I am a student of the past, I find Revolutions interesting only in retrospective analysis. I don’t believe it will all break down. I think local policies will be the ones that will keep us going. I don’t buy into a complete collapse.I don’t see the massive breakdown that occured after the Russian Revolution, or even after any major war in a wartorn nation..Cities decay and struggle without pandemics. Economies fail, depressions happen.Perhaps I’m foolish. I think America is stronger and more resilient than you think it is. I hope I am right, not because I like to be right, but for all our sakes.
Diana-
How, exactly, are local policies going to change the situation we face with regard to the power transmission grid? Is each locality going to purchase local generating capacity to match that currently in use?
Is local policy going to require that each supermarket chain keep a local warehouse with 3 months supply of groceries?
Is local policy going to prevent the next town upriver from dumping untreated raw sewage into your drinking water intake when the power fails, or the plant operators are sick or have died?
Again, with respect, the fact that past societies were resilient has nothing to do with whether THIS culture and THIS society are resilient. It is true that folks living in the country are much more self-sufficient even today, but that is only a tiny fraction of the total population now; more than 90% of the US lives in urban or suburban areas. I fear that you are being unduly optimistic, but perhaps I am missing something. Why do you think that, say Detroit, will not collapse if the power fails for say, a month?
EOD – at 13:43
A lot of the problem from the societal point, in my opinion, is that most people in the Western world do not understand the ignorance that still exists in our own back yards.
I mean ignorance as a lack of knowledge and not as an insult.
Our family business in property management and they are primarily in the low-income areas/range for housing. We work with a lot of public assistance programs.
The ignorance goes so far as to be, at times, ingrained and intentional. There are actually people in the system that KNOW that if they do well in school, further their education, make an effort … they could rise above their current level of living … and then refuse to do so because it would mean the end of receiving financial assistance. They are products of “the system” and thrive on “the system” and they panic when “the system” is threatened with change. Some of them even get violent when they are expected to begin paying a portion of their rent or their other subsidies are cut.
The things I’ve seen over the past decade in this business is what really opened my eyes and matured me as no other life lessons ever have.
If that entitlement mentality, ignorance - both willful and otherwise, and social immorality is not curbed then a pandemic of massive proportions will be the least of the things that bring civilization to a halt.
And how many who make it through a pandemic will suddenly expect to pick up where they left off afterwards … or get the same financial parachute that people are getting today? We cannot go back to the same way of doing things.
It may seem brutal but socially we need to think about providing work for those who refuse to find it for themselves … “no work, no subsidy.” That there are real and concrete consequences to certain choices.
Accountability and responsibility need to be brought back to the forefront … and not passed off if there are “excuses” why someone turned out like they did.
My post sounded a little “us/them” … but that isn’t how I meant it. I mean we all need to live with the idea of individual accountability and responsibility. No one should get off. And we should all have to suffer the consequences of our choices and not have them mitigated by circumstance and parentage.
Oh I believe Detroit would collapse. My little town? We go back a few hundred years, might be it will slip back to having an outhouse in the back yard, wells drilled. I’ve listened to the old timers talk. In a place like this we could revert to pre grid times. There is a grittier type here in this town. The old timers were Italian immigrants who still recall being happy to have a slice of bread and lard for a meal. Or a can of beans. They and their grandchildren remember what it was like. If they tell me, don’t you think they have told their children and grandchildren? The middle class would find it more difficult. We also have a lot of immigrants from Central America and Mexico. They are a hardier bunch than we. They make do on very little because they send most of what they earn to Mexico. The middle class, they would have more of a problem. Larger cities and places like NYC will be Bedlams.Personally, I’ve missed a few meals in my day, though my accomadations in the main have been better than most. I have lived in a cold water flat with no heat, so I know what that is like. I know I could make do.
I think the likely scenario is that there won’t be too many of the “someone owes me a living” folks who will survive the next pandemic and the aftermath.
I find the best part in having grown up very poor, very cold and hungry (tho’ you wouldn’t think that to see me now!) is that I KNOW I can survive on very little. Because I have done it before.
Improvise. Adapt. Overcome.
Survive.
Grace RN – at 16:10
Yes, that which doesn’t kill us makes us stronger.
Ours is a small village if you come down to it. I can easily walk on foot from one end to the other. People still walk here for pleasure. There are horses around, there are wagons and traps. There are cows, sheep, deer abound. I doubt that we will starve. We might end up a lot leaner from eating less and walking. WE have a fair number of farms that grow apples and produce. I guess I am undully optimistic, I truly do not believe civilization will collapse around our ears. Parts of this country would have severe problems. Entitlement is rife, and it will be a period of unrest for those who expect everything to be handed to them. I can’t say I feel uneasy about the future. I simply will wait and see. Noone is going to ask me how to re-organize anything.
I have a barn full of hand tools, but I am hoping I don’t have to go back to using them.
I just want to point out that much of the looting after the hurricane, from what I’ve read, wasn’t for the purposes of survival or comfort. Much of it was purely destructive. Anyone can understand stealing shoes or food. Some items - big screen TVs - make no sense. In many places the premises were destroyed and large deposits of human waste strategically placed as “statements”.
As far as Detroit, don’t they have Devils nite on Oct 30 when they burn up sections of town. I always thought Detroit would go up in smoke eventually, and not from a Pandemic.
LMWatBullRun - at 11:35 “One of the differences between 1800Œs USA and todayfs USA is that the average farmer or journeyman tradesman could discuss the philosophy of government, understood the philosophical underpinnings of the Revolution, and was vitally interested in their government.”
Funny you should mention that - I was teaching a class on literature to some middle schoolers this morning when that very subject came up. Usually we do Beowulf, Chaucer, Dante, etc. But we found ourselves veering off and talking today about how modern Americans do not have the powers of concentration that used to be more common (adults and kids alike) and how difficult they find it to follow complex speech or arguments. I brought up the subject of “The Federalist Papers,” and told them I’d bring in copies of the first two pages of Number 1 next week, to see if they can understand it. Then, I suggested, they might want to pass it around to the adults in their lives and see if they can tell them what it says. I’ll bet lunch that they can’t.
I explained to the kids that “The Federalist Papers” was written for the average American farmer and was a huge bestseller in its day. But the average farmer was a philosopher/farmer, as you point out LMWatBullRun, fully able to understand the tract’s arguments, and ready to engage in serious and vibrant debate on the vital issues of his time.
Where I live, I am surrounded by 200 year-old houses and farmsteads that undoubtedly owned copies fo the Federalist Papers when they first came off the presses. The owners of those homes understood and discussed the ideas contained within them, and discussed those ideas with their neighbors. Today, the owners of those same houses would be hard pressed to do the same.
I’m not one who thinks that civilization will disappear under the stress of pandemic flu, but sometimes I have to admit that I do wonder. My family visited the Smithsonian a few months ago and they had a very interesting exhibit on the history one particular house and the various families had lived in it over the last 200+ years. The first family, living there without any modern conveniences of course, was “rich,” and considered themselves to be very well-off and comfortable. Later families, with far more in the way of modern comforts, conveniences, and labor-saving devices, considered themselves to be “poor.” What had really changed? Perception, mostly. And I will bet that the first owners of that home had read the “Federalist Papers” while later residents considered such reading to be too difficult and completely extraneous to their existence. It gives one pause to consider what being “rich,” or what “civilization” really is. I’ll take the self-assurance and composure that I saw in the portrait of the first owners of that home, along with their literacy, over the world of modern wonders and electrical conveniences any day. They certainly looked much happier than most of the people who followed them in that residence, and considered themselves to be prosperous and fortunate. So much of all this seems to have to do with simple self-perception.
“especially Property Rights”???? The USA’s first and maybe only commandment and priority is “property rights”. “He who has the property is right”, regardless of the method of acquisition. The respect accorded businesses and people who acquire property by even despicable means is a sign of what to expect when societal controls break down. If respect for the humanity in each and every person was the number 1 goal (like the example the Amish afforded us even in the death of their children), property rights would flow from that in a positive way, as well as behaving decently in the acquisition of the property you get, and its use when you have gotten it. “The someone owes me a living” folks, who comprise most of our top business and political leaders, are going to do quite well in the crisis by living off of others regardless of the cost to the people they deprive for their own benefit.
Fiddlerdave at 17:05-If this comes down hard, even the rich and privileged will be on the same level as us, maybe lower, much lower, if the merit of USEFUL occupations counts for something. As I think it will. : )
INDIVIDUAL Property Rights should be viewed by you as a necessary evil that keeps the lazy on their toes, but also, more importantly, forms the basis from which all of our other “inalienable” rights flow. (Give credit to John Locke, the English philosopher, for logically fixing the basis of all of our other rights in the ownership of property).
Fiddlerdave, are you imagining the CEO of General Motors with a private army looting private homes, or what? A small house with a stocked pantry or a small farm with some livestock and a private gas storage tank DOES belong to the owner, no question. Or who do you think should decide otherwise?
Alexander Hamilton: …”The additional securities to republican government, to liberty and to property, to be derived from the adoption of the plan under consideration, consist chiefly in the restraints which the preservation of the Union will impose on local factions and insurrections, and on the ambition of powerful individuals in single States, who may acquire credit and influence enough, from leaders and favorites, to become the despots of the people;
in the diminution of the opportunities to foreign intrigue, which the dissolution of the Confederacy would invite and facilitate; in the prevention of extensive military establishments, which could not fail to grow out of wars between the States in a disunited situation; in the express guaranty of a republican form of government to each; in the absolute and universal exclusion of titles of nobility;
and in the precautions against the repetition of those practices on the part of the State governments which have undermined the foundations of property and credit,
have planted mutual distrust in the breasts of all classes of citizens, and have occasioned an almost universal prostration of morals.”…
(Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose?)
Kathy in FL at 15:11--It may seem brutal but socially we need to think about providing work for those who refuse to find it for themselves … “no work, no subsidy.” That there are real and concrete consequences to certain choices.
I hate that my comment is in any way contradictory, because Kathy in FL is DEFINITELY one of my ten ten.
That said, post- (and probably intra-) pandemic, subsudies would likely be a thing of the past.
Also, the problem of “those who refuse to find [work] for themselves” is so given to oversimplification, that we should be careful about our conclusions. I could say, and truthfully, that my grown, college-attending daughter does not even make enough money—at her fulltime, minimum-wage job—to pay the rent of a dumpy apartment. Yes, she could find a job making more (and hopefully someday she will), but the fault is not all hers. It is also—and I think mainly—the fault of “the system.” Nowadays, workers are nothing more than numbers messing up somebody’s bottom line. If a job can be done for less—by anyone, anywhere else—then it is, and the morality we’re talking about on this thread isn’t even part of the equation.
diana at 14:39 - I hope you are right. And I’m very glad that you’re posting.
And finally, as a general thought, I would like to say that I think emerging leaders will most likely be those with either a). the greatest firepower or b). the greatest moral authority (among other things, such as assertiveness, diplomacy, charm, intelligence).
As far as greatest firepower goes, me, I’d prefer to live under the leadership of the one without the guns.
And as for moral authority, religious beliefs would be not only irrelevant, but likely to make matters worse. This is not an argument against religion itself—to forbid religion is the same (and as wrong) as to force it. But to say only our beliefs are correct (and, hence, we’re superior) reveals the ugly side of religion, and it alienates.
(Actually, if I could, I would choose a system where the basic, agreed-upon tenets of all major religions are used as the basis for law. How a person worships, what day they worship, who they worship, etc., would all be a matter of personal choice. But I think the religious moral laws—e.g., the Ten Commandments—exemplify the essence of moral behavior, and so, in a moral—enlightened—society, would be reflected in the laws.)
Scaredy Cat-The United States has as its bedrock the Judeo-Christian heritage that helped form the thoughts of our Founding Fathers and resulted in our Bill of Rights and The Constitution. So it has already been done. We here in the States are living it WHEN we choose to do so.
The worst fear of the Founding Fathers was that at some point the citizens would not be equal to what they had given them. It is only paper and words without the Collective Will to implement those directives and to abide the Rule of Law.
The only thing that could really screw us up completely is if any of our large cities are nuked or dirty bombed and then retaliatory strikes, leading to a nuclear winter, and a burgeoning explosion of any pandemic following. One alone would be catastrophic, both in tandem would bring about the collapse of civilization.I was concerned about Oct 24, the end of Ramadan. So far it seems quiet.
At the risk of being flamed yet again, what concerns me is that there are types of Western lifestyles that are going to contribute more “victims than others. I agree with Kathy and EOD, because I’m afraid I’ve seen the same things - people who have no idea how to operate in other than a welfare-type system and it scares me.
There are other groups who I don’t think are going to fare too well either - I have quite a few wealthy friends who live extremely affluent lifestyles - but everything is purchased from somewhere. The lady of the house doesn’t do her own cooking, cleaning, gardening and neither does her husband.
I’ve discussed BF with them and perhaps putting away a few provisions, but what I get back is “Oh if there is a Pandemic, we will just fly to (Cancun/St Tropez/Bermuda/Hawaii - you name it) and stay in a Resort/Hotel”.
Maybe they will get away with this strategy, but in a bad pandemic, I’m not sure I want to be spending my days in a hotel with 700 guests and 500 staff, even if I can find my way through whatever quarantine and transport regulations that are in place.
I’m not sure that money is going to be the be all and end all in a bad pandemic either, because if there is not much to purchase, then what good is cash?
Skills and tools are going to be valuable if things get really bad. I think I can see that we might have what I will term a “great simplification” if things get bad. There is no need for multiple layers of management if the population is considerably smaller and assets are no longer scarce.
Dude,
I just got around to reading your posting from 10–22–06. I do not have much time to comment on it, but it was worth reading four times. I wish I could pick up the phone and discuss it with you, because I have many of the same opinions and sentiments.
This may, indeed, be our generation’s wake-up call. I look forward to a much-improved post-pandemic world.
Medical-Maven, I would recommend a relatively new book to you “Faiths of our Founding Fathers”. It’s excellent and clears up a lot of misconceptions regarding our founding fathers and their religious beliefs. Most were, in fact, not Christians but Deists. Most did not believe in the virgin birth, the resurrection and a host of other things but did pull out the good points and underlying principles. The information is from their own letters to family, friends and acquaintences. It’s a small volume, VERY eye opening. It’s written in a more academic tone with a lot of primary source material cited, but still fascinating.
LMWatBullRun at 11:35 - A certain grounding in physical reality seems to be required in order to have effective philosophy, witness Eric Hoffer, who was a longshoreman before he published “the True Believer”, or Ben Franklin, who was a printer and experimenter. John Adams was a farmer, as was Jefferson, who was also an architect and builder.
Personally, I could never consider a slave owner, in spite of his brilliance in some matters, to have had an “effective philosophy.”
Medical Maven at 12:18 - Hypocrisy is not an excuse for eschewing moral standards.
True. But I think it’s a good excuse for eschewing those who falsely claim to uphold high moral standards.
Medical Maven at 17:48 - INDIVIDUAL Property Rights should be viewed..as a necessary evil that keeps the lazy on their toes…
me at 18:01 - Also, the problem of “those who refuse to find [work] for themselves” is so given to oversimplification, that we should be careful about our conclusions. I could say, and truthfully, that my grown, college-attending daughter does not even make enough money—at her fulltime, minimum-wage job—to pay the rent of a dumpy apartment. Yes, she could find a job making more (and hopefully someday she will), but the fault is not all hers. It is also—and I think mainly—the fault of “the system.” Nowadays, workers are nothing more than numbers messing up somebody’s bottom line. If a job can be done for less—by anyone, anywhere else—then it is, and the morality we’re talking about on this thread isn’t even part of the equation.
Medical Maven at 18:16 - The United States has as its bedrock the Judeo-Christian heritage that helped form the thoughts of our Founding Fathers and resulted in our Bill of Rights and The Constitution.
me - Judeo-Christian is good for two!
MM still at 18:16 - So it has already been done. We here in the States are living it WHEN we choose to do so.
After a bad pandemic, I think the United States, as a meaningful entity, could quickly collapse. In any event, while I do think many individuals “here in the States are not currently living…[morally?] WHEN we choose to,” the same (“WHEN we choose to”) could be said—and with far more relevance—of our leaders in Washington, DC.
My son just earned a Ph.D., and with his first post-graduation job can barely make the rent for a nearby, dinky apartment (forget buy a house). The equation is complicated.
Scaredy Cat-At some point we reach that critical mass of ignorant, apathetic citizens and hypocritical, scamming leaders. And when that point is reached we have become the “paper tiger” that our enemies so love to have roll off of their tongues.
And THEN with the next hard blow we are HISTORY.
It takes two to tango. And the collective run of leaders reflects the pool of available talent and the judgement of the electors.
It is all about upbringing, principles, education, and being forged by the fires of hardship. How many of us, leaders and citizens, make the grade at this present moment?
It’s not all about being lazy. I, as an nineteen-year-old “checker’s assistant,” was able (and actually far more lazy), on a part-time job, to not only afford the rent on a nice studio apartment, but also a car payment, food, gas, and insurance.
Scaredy Cat at 20:38-You are talking about “economic opportunity” and “fairness” in a WORLD economy. I am talking about FREEDOM in a Representative Republic. You with your arguments could be making the same complaints in China this very day.
We are on different planes. Which is more important to your well-being and the well-being of your children and their children?
its strange for a scandinavian sosial democrat (we all are you know..) to follow your discuisions, not only the historical things but the emphasism on Law & Order. My impression is that this subject is very popular in the US debate, and still, you are one of the societies with the highest crimes in the world.. The biggest part of population in prison.. The highest murder rates.. You have death penalthy for kids! And you have the hardest convictions.. And were does it get you? More demand on Law & Order,,, Why are you so far from discussing the roots to the problems? the causes? the action/ reaction isues? You feel treathend, and your most coomon answer is, “protection protection..” … does it realy seem to help?
If to discuss a post buster scenario. where are the emphasis on equality, social rights, health care, elders care, education, democracy, free speach? You may find the scandinavians to be naive to the bitter end, but at last we dont need a gun under our pillows to sleep well, and we can leave our toddlers in the babywagons outside the shops.. And we have better welfare systems than you can dream of.. hmm.. maybe there is a conection…
Maybe you sholdent have let the tradeunions be couped by the mafia or allowed the witchunts on the sosialsts in the 50s, then maybe you would have slept better as well? Our socetiy was bulidt by the workersmovement, The institutions, the media, the rights, the laws, the education, health care, and the welfare. But we also had a very equal heritage from the vikings to build on, mixed with Roman law and inspired by the french revoulton it ended up very well..
The two last parts we have in common, why did it end up so totaly diiferent?
pleease.. dont flame me, you want belive how long it takes me to put down these words, I will be totaly denfecless :-D
Urdar-Norway-I could say much, but I won’t. But I do appreciate your perspective. You are a valued fluwikian. : )
just trying to put some looooong range (a entire atlantic ocean) perspektive ) it may help on discusions with some fresh sea air :D
Urdar-Norway, Here in the US at this point in time,the corporations now run the govt. Social programs are not good for the bottom line.
Urdar-Norway: Your questions are certainly valid ones, and speaking for myself, I don’t have an answer for you. I really wish that we had - at the very least - a national health plan. I am old enough to remember when America was a much nicer, safer, and more caring country than it is today - and I miss that. I don’t know how it all got so out of control in a relatively short period of time.
Maybe it’s much easier to accomplish a social democracy in a relatively small, easily controlled country like Norway than it is in a huge place like the USA. That’s part of the problem. Another problem is a lack of will in recent administrations, but I think that’s slowly changing.
I wonder sometimes if a pandemic will serve to change the way we do things on a grand scale. It’s hard to predict. Throw globalization into the mix, and it’s even more difficult.
Urdar-Norway:
We are the legacy of the second, third, fourth, fifth, etc generations from a European continent that kicked them out. No inheritance, no land, no money, just a few connections. Here in the New World nothing was given to you just because you were born first. Every family here, has an immigration story and its a hard scrabble one. Survival was violent. Therefore we’re still violent. Your country is based on an inheritance that survived long enough to provide a more peaceful existence for you. Once the New World was discovered the old warring Europeans stopped, no one to fight the wars because the first borns were given everything, and a lot of the others left in order to own something. People who came here it was do or die..still is for the ones still coming.
Judge us after we’ve had thousands of years to sue for the peace. You judge us and yet as a country we’re still babies compared to you. Just my 2 cents on the subject.
Urdar-Norge, you’ve just pointed out many of the reasons why we feel threatened-life is different here. I’m glad you raised these issues, even though I can’t answer your questions. (Did you have a uniformity/similarity of ethnicity and religion for long periods of time? Just a thought about possible built-in harmony.)
I forgot to say that we have the biggest burocracy ever,.. and those who are in charge of pandemic planning are totaly on wrong track.. The US is now miles ahead of us in Europe it seems..
Maybe this strenght will be good if there is a buster coming, it seem to be a local, decentralized effort happening in he US
Ps. I dont belive in busters, people allway find a way to deal with things.
Urdar-Norway “Ps. I dont belive in busters, people allway find a way to deal with things. “ Like people whose “prayers are answered” in disasters, the only people you hear from are the one who had, not only the will, but there was a “way” to be found. The very numerous ones who didn’t “find a way” aren’t around to talk about it.
Nazism
Ghengis Khan
Khmer Rouge
Vikings
Suicide Bombers
kamikazes
Darfur
Sudan
There’s something bad in your neighborhood. Who ya gonna call?
Urdar-Norway, if it wasn’t so dark up there in Winter, I had previously considered learning Finnish!
Then I could vacation, and visit Norway. It looks beautiful.
Fiddlerdave – at 22:15, you’re right; we only hear the survivors (for instance, bet there are a lot of men who try and drive themselves to the ER when they think they “may be” having a heart attack, who don’t make it, despite the crazy stories of some who did).
Leo- Man, I’m really confused by your post.
“We are the legacy of the second, third, fourth, fifth, etc generations from a European continent that kicked them out.”
Um- a significant porportion of our citizens ancestors were dragged over here kicking and screaming and dying in slave ships. A larger porportion came over/still coming over because the living conditions are so much better. I’m not talking social conditions so much as droughts, famine, war,etc, they left behind. A big chunck of my ancestors came becaouse of the Irish Potato famine. Another chunk were indentured servants. One couple was indentured servents to a family who came over-my folks DID NOT WANT TO COME-they had to leave behind all their family,frends, culture, way of life, but had to anyway. Another big chunk were Scots/Irish who were dispossessed and hounded by the English all through England/Scotland/Ireland for a couple hundred years until they made it to the American Appalchian Mountains where they are now hounded and in some cases dispossessed by the American Government.
“Once the New World was discovered the old warring Europeans stopped,”
The two World Wars of this centuary were fought long after the New World was discovered.
Undar-I married into a Scandinavian family, (Swedish/Finnish) and while I myself have not had the privlige of traveling to Scandinavia, many of my in-laws have traveled back and forth and maintain some ties. If we could swing it finacially, we’d move there in a heartbeat. Its not that I don’t love my country-(I sense a flaming here about to happen) but you, Undar, are spot on about the violence/prisons/executions.
Green Mom – at 09:04 ..New World was discovered ….
Just for the record: my ancestors where here before the Europeans arrived (I’m Chickasaw). There was a nice socialistic civilization in N. Amer. before the Europeans - you know - and look what it got us.
DennisC – at 09:37
“and look what it got us.”
Would you please clairfy that statment.
Are we there yet – at 09:46
Umm..
Genocide, smallpox, syphillus to start. Reservations.
I didn’t have a car until I was in my thirties, but used public transportation. I didn’t own a home until I was in my late thirties. I couldn’t afford any of what Scardey Cat did as a young woman because we live in different decades. Her children are in the position I was in,so conditions have not improved. I love my own country, and like living here. I don’t like the polarazation or the entitlement society that we have developed.We can’t change it now. Political correctness hamstrings us, so honest feelings are stifled because some groups sensibilities will be offended. It doesn’t stop people from feeling these things, merely from expressing them. In the beginning it served a purpose, but it has run away with itself and become a ball and chain we drag around.
Are we there yet – at 09:46
cactus – at 10:04 = bingo
Chickasaws had the view that no moral man could own the immortal earth. The Europeans came in and “declared” the land was theirs. But realize I am also part “very blue blooded” English- so I have a foot in both camps.
But bringing the point back around to pandemic flu. Realize that by many accounts the smallpox brought by outsiders killed off as much as 80 % of the native people. Large CFR’s are possible.
For the person above who said that they did not understand what happened to the “old” United States, the short answer is, “a lack of philosophy.”
We are now reaping the fruits of the anti-intellectual revolution started over a hundred years ago. The rot has propogated slowly, but is now very deep.
Example- Some years ago I was sorting through my grnadmother’s trunks, and I found among other things an 8th grade reader published in 1858. I thought “how quaint! I wonder what sorts of (primitive?)things the 8th grade studied in 1858?”
So, I opened the book and started reading.
(Bear in mind that I am a graduate with honors of one of the best universities in the US, far more widely read than 99% of my fellow grads, and a former member of Mensa. Some of my friends call me ‘Professor’ because I generally know the answers. Not bragging, just providing some background here)
I was stunned to find that there were a number of questions, at least 20%, TO WHICH I DID NOT KNOW THE ANSWERS. Moreover, the answers were not to be found in the text; my conclusion is that the knowledge required was generally available in the culture then extent, or at least available to an 8th grade teacher, but I did not know them.
The standard of the book was quite high; vocabulary, grammar and diction of the text was much better than I see from present-day college graduates.
This incident brought home to me home badly deteriorated our present education system really is. Since an educated citizenry is the foundation of a representative republic such as ours, my conclusion is that we are ripe for collapse, and an influenza pandemic is one of a number of potential triggering events.
Not sure how ‘how’ became ‘home’, but perhaps I am (unconsciously) reinforcing my point. <rueful grin>
Diana-
In the beginning entitlement served a purpose.
Well, yes, but that was an evil purpose at it’s root. I submit there is a huge philosophical and moral difference between voluntary contributions to a charitable organization whose purpose is relief, and forcible extraction of money ‘will ye or nil ye’ by the government. This moral difference corrupts all it touches.
Ideas do matter, and they do have real consequences in the real world. We see them now and I am very much afraid we will see even more stark examples shortly.
To get back to the ‘flu, the underlying root cause of the present inaction of WHO in the face of an enormous threat with which they are charged with averting, is the underlying moral relativism of those in power. They think “well, it can’t possibly be that bad, and if it is, the scientists will figure out a way around it.” They think that “somehow” “something” will “just happen” to save the day, and they frantically avoid the sort of razor-edged logical analysis required to cope with this problem because the results of such thinking are too unnerving and too disturbing to their political overlords.
Philosophy matters. Ideas matter. Ethics and honor matter. If H5N1 breaks out into pandemic form we will all see just how much they do matter. See the post “the Gods of the Copybook Headings”
The men in my village are Volunteers. Volunteer fire fighters, First aid, and many do worthwhile projects. This week its bow hunting 200 deer to thin our herds. Sure its a fun thing for a hunter. The meat is donated. I might get a few pounds of deer sausage. I’ll check it out. I do expect we’ll get around to organization as far as Pandemic planning, but even if its not comprehensive, my optimistic “Magical thinking “self believes that all of these men who have proved themselves capable and organized, will in a pinch ,get it right. All of our supermarkets are at least 5 miles away. I can see organized food runs so that children won’t starve. People are capable of pulling together, at least here they seem to do so. For Katrina, this little town in a few days sent at least 12 truckloads of goods (water, blankets food )off via McGuire airforce base. A few men, a few trucks, and some storage in the town garages. It’s a good town with competant people.I don’t know how the rest of the country is, but I think our little village will make it if need be.
diana – at 12:53
Yes, I believe your village will make it. Civilization is not in the power grids and storehouses- it is in the spirit. Civilization is planted deep in your village and it will survive.
cactus – at 10:04
It also brought you and me. If it hadn’t happened you and I wouldn’t exist. Other people would but not us. I’m a little self serving when I look at history. So many in the future may owe their existence to the birdflu, ie they wouldn’t have been conceived if their parents, grandparents, greatgrandparents, etc hadn’t been SIP, etc.
If it is a civilization buster, I think I have found my post-pandemic skill. I know how to make beer!
[snip]
World History
Humans existed as members of small bands of nomadic hunters and gatherers. They lived on deer in the mountains during the summer and would go to the coast and live on fish and lobster in winter.
The 2 most important events in all of history were the invention of beer and the invention of the wheel. The wheel was invented to get man to the beer. These were the foundation of modern civilization.
Once beer was discovered it required grain and that was the beginning of agriculture. Neither the glass bottle nor aluminum can were invented yet, so while our early human ancestors were sitting around waiting for them to be invented, they just stayed close to the brewery. That’s how villages were formed.
Hail to the beer makers…Or should I say cheers ;)
make mine Sam Adams winterbrew, please! (hic)
LMWatBullRun….You should try to make it yourself,It is pretty easy and not too expensive to to get the needed equiptment.Well worth the investment in my opinion..(hic)I gave a recipe once for a harvest brew also, made with apples that developes a little kick with time.It is in the cookbook on the wiki side.
Malachi-
that’s a good idea, but not at the top of my priority list; I’m still working on other things. I will be looking into it, though when some other projects get a bit farther along.
LMWatBullRun - at 10:43:
“…they frantically avoid the sort of razor-edged logical analysis required to cope with this problem because the results of such thinking are too unnerving and too disturbing to their political overlords.”
Many people have asked why the WHO does not come out and simply tell people, individual people, families, and communities, to prepare for a flu pandemic in the most practical way (stored food, water, etc.). I think they do avoid the logical solution very deliberately and quite intentionally. The current thinking very well may be that it is “unfair” and not “moral” to encourage one group to prepare in this way if other groups simply cannot, in practicality, also prepare in this way. There are many at the international level who feel that simply to encourage such practicality is a defacto violation of human rights.
One of the current candidate for the head WHO position is a Burmese man who has no medical or scientific background. His platform is that health issues are not medical issues for most of the world so much as they are human rights issues of wealth vs. poverty and the haves vs. the have-nots. That this candidate has gotten to the final round for consideration tells you how far the WHO had gotten away from medicine and science and how far they are now ready to venture into the realm of social justice. With this current philosophy, it is not hard to see how the WHO would be hamstrung to encourage practical individual and community preparation for those who were able to do so as to do so would be a strategy which, if embraced, would lead to the hard dilema of what to tell those who are unable to prepare in this way, from a practical standpoint as well as a philosophical one.
Of course, the smartest way out of this dilema would be for WHO to encourage all individuals and communities to prepare “to the best of their abilities,” but anyone making that kind of statement can can also be accused of disregarding the “higher” value of “social justice,” so what’s left is for us all to go down on the ship together. At least officially it will be “equitably” together.
Pixie:
You seem to have your finger on the WHO pulse. I never thought of it as you presented your opinion, but it makes sense. Survival being equal opportunity for all.
“A Fare For All, And No Fair to Anybody!”
Pixie – at 14:23 Your comment makes a lot of sense. Another example of that same line of thought by WHO has to do with the mask debate. If my memory serves me, the reason why WHO removed all references regarding type of masks to be worn by medical staff during a pandemic was that many third world countries would not be able to obtain adequate supplies of these masks, so the information was omitted. They did not want to recommend a standard that some of the poor nations may not be able to attain.
“Welcome to…the Future”
With respect, CRFM, that is the future only if we allow it to be so. This sort of ‘politically erroneous’ idiocy is a last gasp of a bankrupt philosophy. That insanity is the past, reaching with skeletal fingers to try to drag us back into the grave of collectivism.
WE are the future, and we have yet to write our history.
“Never give up! Never surrender!”
crfullmoon at 15:05
Welocme to the future”
___________________________
Is this what globalization means?
crfullmoon – at 14:59
Are we all Bozo’s on this bus?
Don’t forget to inflate your shoes.
crfullmoon – at 15:05
Oremus – at 15:29
C’mon, squeeze the wheeze!
Oremus got it - ;-)
LMWatBullRun, I get odd bits of levity in my audio loops to cope sometimes; “Firesign Theatre” quotes, in this instance.
Giving up isn’t an option. (But I’m suuuuure gettin’ frustrated.)
Will mister Uh Clem, please report to the hospitality center. Mister Uh Clem.
I think we’re all bozos on this bus MP3 sample there, if you’re speakers are on and you never heard the Firesign Theatre…
this thread needs less hamilton,and much more madison.
I have seen discussions on global pandemics that destroy everyone’s civilization and some discussion about what if there is not a H5N1 pandemic anytime soon. But what about the case half way between the two extremes. What if some of these new vaccines or drugs work (even partially) and the “industrialized nations” (meaning here medical industry especially) innoculate a large fraction of their population but the poorer ones don’t get the vaccine in time. How would that effect the overal world civilization? For example, the Swiss have ordered enough vaccine based on the older strain to innoculate their entire population.
So the rational is. If the poorest third world countries can’t help themselves, every one else should hold their noses and get flushed down a collective toilet? Bull.
diana – at 16:58 “So the rational is… every one else should hold their noses and get flushed down a collective toilet? “
I think that is irrational not rational.
Notice I do not advocate the sewer you present. I just asked the question what would that do to civilization. The truth is most poorer nations do not have the medical industry to produce vaccines and even the large countries may not have enough time for complete production or distribution capability to vaccinate their entire population. It may be just as likely for there to be limited vaccination with only partially protective vaccines as total loss by all countries. -The same with other antiviral drugs. Right now Kuwait has enough Tamiflu for 110% of its population and Ethiopia less that 5 % of its. If TSHTF tomorrow, there would be a great difference between the haves and have not nations. I am not saying it is fair or should be, just that is the way it is now.
There is no ideal world, there are no ideal solutions. If noone has solved inequalities in life till now, no one ever will.Utopia has never existed. It never will. Someone always will have more of everything than someone else. Whatever has started with the noblest of intentions always becomes subverted. I may be more of an optimist than most here, but I am also more of a cynic. I can only be effective in my small sphere of influence. Some can do more. Perhaps some here will. become internationally effective. That I know I can’t do so ,shouldn’t stop anyone else from trying.
I don’t think the WHO has done a thing based on any of the notions characterized above. I don’t think (not that I think all must suffer because some must—let’s look for a way to mitigate the suffering of as many as possible (here’s where some degree of collectivism can really be a great thing)) the WHO has used any sort of moral reasoning at all here in regard to H5N1. Just a bow to political (money) pressures of powerful nations.
:D thx for all feedback. I will continue throwing in some thought.. size matters? The debate often seem to circle around the size of the local soceity, and how it will cope. Many says the small ones will handle it bether. Maybe there is something in it. Maybe the scandinavns have less fear, not becuase we are better prepeard but maybe we belive so? That when TPTB is closer at reach it feels safer? But is this a fact? Or just a feeling? Maybe those antizipated problems is not related to historical facts but something as simple as urban planning, and then the realy hughe differnce between europe and the US has happend the last 50 years, the shopping malls, highways etc. The longer away people live from where they work, cultural life and places for decisions the more risk for things to break apart since larger systems are more complicated than small ones. Or they just feels fragile.
Orlandopreppie – at 20:09 I have two books I would recommend as well. Original Intent, the Courts, the Constitution, and Religion, and the second Lives of the Signers of the Declaration of Independence. The first uses and relies upon ‘primary-source information documenting the views of “the Fathers” . The second is a reprint of the 1848 original. They offer a different view that refutes the revisionist teaching in our culture today that our founding fathers were mostly deists. Several quotes just for a “teaser”.
John Jay – Original Chief-Justice of the US Supreme Court: “Unto Him who is the author and giver of all good, I render sincere and humble thanks for His manifold and unmerited blessings, and especially for our redemption and salvation by His beloved Son”
George Mason – Father of The Bill Of Rights: “My soul I resign into the hands of my Almighty Creator, whose tender mercies are all over His works, who hateth nothing that He hath made, and to the justice and wisdom of whose dispensations I willingly and cheerfully submit, humbly hoping from His unbounded mercy and benevolence, through the merits of my blessed Savior, a remission of my sins.”
John Dickinson – Signer of the Constitution: “Rendering thanks to my Creator for my existence and station among His works, for my birth in a country enlightened by the Gospel and enjoying freedom, and for all His other kindnesses, to Him I resign myself, humbly confiding in His goodness, and in His mercy through Jesus Christ for the events of eternity.”
Benjamin Rush – Signer of The declaration of Independence, in his, ‘A Defense of the Use of the Bible in Schools’ “Christianity is the only true and perfect religion; and that in proportion as mankind adopt its principles and obey its precepts they will be wise and happy.” “A better knowledge of this religion is to be acquired by reading the Bible than in any other way.” “The Bible contains more knowledge necessary to man in his present state than any other book in the world.”
Noah Webster, “In my view, the Christian religion is the most important and one of the first things in which all children, under a free government, ought to be instructed. The Christian religion must be the basis of any government intended to secure the rights and privileges of a free people.”
Our liberal public education system has done a very good job in rewriting it for those of you young in years. Just reading some of the literature from that time will tell much, such as the New England Primer, the text book used by most all states and schools. http://www3.gettysburg.edu/~tshannon/his341/nep1805contents.html
Better yet James Wilson (signer of the US Constitution) in his ‘Of The General Principles Of Law & Obligation’, “ http://www.founding.com/library/lbody.cfm?id=207&parent=61
LMWatBullRun, your post about the eigth grade reader illuminates the biggest problem America and a lot of the rest of the world faces - that is the belief that we are somehow smarter and more intelligent then our ancestors.
The reality is that we are not more intelligent, merely that through the creation of a secular humanistic philosophy after the invention of the printing press, we started looking at our surroundings using the scientific method, codified and published our findings, and patiently built up the world view, body of knowledge and technologies that we take for granted today.
Secular humanism defeated religion as an organising principle although not without battles. Galileo and others were jailed and threatened with torture for questioning the teachings of the church, and some scientists like Giordano Bruno and others were burned at the stake.
The greatest creation of secular humanism is the Declaration of Independence and the American Constitution.
These two documents are alive and relevent today as they were when they were penned, and they were penned by people just as intelligent and in some ways better informed than you and I are today.
(Bites toungue ion an effort not to start a political rant) I would respectfully suggest that the victory of secular humanism is not complete, the forces of darkness and superstition are not yet dead, you see them in debates about gay marriage, stem cell research, abortion, contraception and a whole lot of other matters.
After a major pandemic if the rule of law has faltered, all the old enemies will once again make a grab for power:- Religions of all descriptions, entrenched aristocracies or would be aristocracies, raciists and bigots, xenophobes and all of the other assorted evils that will crawl out from under the rocks. You can be sure of it as night follows day.
I would therefore respectfully suggest that in the event of a civilisation buster, include a copy of the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution of the United States of America in your preps and add a weapon or too and some ammunition. Tell your friends to do the same.
I can think of no more important things worth defending than the Declaration of Independence and Constitution, and my guess is that after a bad pandemic we may have to fight for them again.
we need to fight for them now.
True.
EOD, are you saying the Christian religion will be helpful to our pandemic or post pandemic world? If so, I beg to differ, at least with the current interpretation of christianity which is hostile to science and knowledge and mired in dogma and “isms”.
just my 0.02 cents, and since I started this thread, I don’t feel overly guilty about contributing to thread drift.
I believe our only hope for the future is in knowledge, science and freedom from unfounded beliefs that hold us back as a culture.
Wasn’t it Benjamin Franklin who said something to the effect. That now we have a Republic, lets see if we can keep it. I don’t recall exactly. Certainly they crafted something we all value, in our somewhat differing interpretations.
in his correspondence with jefferson,over the last fifty years of their lives,john adams said ,and i’m paraphrasing; if one “religion” should gain ascendency over all others’ we will end up burning and pilloring each other the way the europeans have for the past 500 years. the period of enlightenment came about because of the revulsion at the carnage of religiously inspired wqarfare.(the hundred years war). perhaps we should pay attention to our past.and learn from it. for once.
It is there, we all have it to one degree or another, and we all know to what degree.
wrong thread, switched mid post.
Time to do something else. It will be interesting to read this thread another day.
Not really my intent but yes I do think “true” Christianity could help. Not though the popular form we mostly see in the free world today, that prosperity gospel, etc. which has nothing to do with humbleness and charity. The Christianity as practiced in the many city Gospel Missions/Soup kitchens, that Christianity as illustrated in Christ’s parable of the ‘Good Samaritan’, those and other like life philosophies will be what helps us get through what is to come.
diana – at 19:20 yes it was Ben,
Franklin was asked at the close of the Constitutional Convention of 1787, as he left Independence Hall :“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
his answer was:
“A Republic, if you can keep it.”
EOD. Thanks, I agree. Humility, compassion, charity all will be needed in abundance. If some find this in Christianity, terrific. Others of us find it in other Rreligions or no religion at all, just in our hearts. In any case, if we want the future to hold more happiness and less suffering for all, we need to bring the best out in ourselves and in others.
Two of Franklin’s quotes I like most:
“God works wonders now and then; Behold a lawyer, an honest man.”
“We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.”
A severe pandemic may give us the opportunity to rebuild the world into the utopia we dreamed of in the ‘60s.
Equal rights for all. Peace & Love. May all follow their dreams. May all be as they wish to be.
That is my hope.
Recent computer modelling forecasts of pandemic impact on several countries, showing developing countries hit disproportionately hard due to poor medical and gov’t infrastructure. Slides 24, 25 and 26 are striking…
Even with only a moderate pandemic, these models show countries like Indonesia, the Phillipines, Malaysia, the OPEC countries losing 0.5% of their populations to influenza, significant losses compared to the developed nations. The forecasts for severe and ultra impact are more disproportionate — Indonesia could lose 5% of its population compared to the USA less than 0.5%.
These are the conservative estimates. What kind of a reaction could we anticipate from the people of these Third World nations if events unfold as the models predict? Even in a relatively rosy scenario, massive social chaos and unrest…
Urdar-Norway - at 18:52
I love Scandanavia, and would love for us to have the calm and prosperous kind of country here that you have there.
But, there is one big difference between our countries - the sheer size. The United States is huge. The distance between New York and Los Angeles is almost 4,000 km. To compare, that is further than the distance between Oslo and Istanbul. If you look at the land mass and the number and varieties of people that live in the broad area between Oslo and Istanbul, and compare that to the U.S., we probably are no better or worse than the mix of those peoples with regard to poverty, crime, and corruption than they are there. And can you imagine trying to govern an area that extends from Oslo past Istanbul? In Europe, any have tried that kind of thing, and few have succeeded!
Ottawan – at 20:41 Thanks what was a good report. notice that even their servere case was just at 2.33% death rate (world wide ave).
it doesn’t look good for China, India, and LDC’s.
I am skeptical of the forecasts that show the USA doing very well. Unlike all the other industrialized countries, the growth of the for-profit hospitals and the loss of the non-profit hospitals in the USA spells disaster in a crisis. For what reason will any for-profit hospital stay in business? Why should a doctor who works on billing for procedures keep operating? The health insurance companies operate on an profit assumption of payment at the current rate of illness (exemptions for acts of war, terrorism, civil disobedience already are in place in policies - watch for panemic exclsuions to start showing up!). The huge increase of critical illnesses, the huge and immediate reduction of monthly premiums as companies stop operating and fold and individuals stop paying, mean the health insurance companies crash and the cash flow to these facilites will stop. Not to mention how do you bill for putting someone in the hall with no medications and no care? No one will pay anyway. The USA will lose 3/4 of its central hospital institutions in the middle of a huge disaster since these owners like Tenet etc. will just close their doors like in Katrina. I am seeing the other national health systems plan now at least to SOME extent, with stockpiles and coordinated work, and USA hospitals are doing basically ZERO prep (no profit!) except maybe paper plans, which basically amount to “how to allocate the existing pillows to the passengers” while on the verticle line descent to the ground.
In point of fact, I do have a copy of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights in a little Penguin pocket edition. I keep it in my briefcase to help educate It’s getting pretty dogeared and I probably need a new one or three
LMWatbullRun – at 21:26 Or six or ten they may come in handy.
On a busted civilization. There is no way you can plan for that, there are way to many variables to even plan for. All you can do is wait and see what happens and go with the flow.
“Fiddlerdave, are you imagining the CEO of General Motors with a private army looting private homes, or what?” Yes, absolutely. They have private armies now, they do exactly that in various parts of the world (when their influence does not get a public army at taxpayer ecpense to do it for them, and I see no reason they would refrain from doing so inside the US borders if circumstances warrant (in their point of view, which is “what is good for me is good for the country!” otherwise known as “trickle down economics”))
“A small house with a stocked pantry or a small farm with some livestock and a private gas storage tank DOES belong to the owner, no question. Or who do you think should decide otherwise?” I imagine native Americans felt quite the same way, and no governmental or private landowner authority (i.e. armed force) asked them as they took their stocked pantries and provisioned lands they lived on for generations. This coninues to this day with shooting and violence, and for unpaid royalties in the many billions of dollars, summarized by a conservative Reagan appointee judge as (from http://tinyurl.com/ylkp9k ): “In a July 2005 opinion, the judge, Royce C. Lamberth, wrote: “Our ‘modern’ Interior Department has time and again demonstrated that it is a dinosaur — the morally and culturally oblivious hand-me-down of a disgracefully racist and imperialist government that should have been buried a century ago, the last pathetic outpost of the indifference and anglocentrism we thought we had left behind.”“ Do you really think these people will respect your “property rights” when the chips are down?
Anon_451 You are right that we don’t know exactly what the future will hold, but there are some basic strategies that can help maximize the liklihood of civilization recovering sooner. The more people that adopt those the better, which is why I spend the time making those suggestions. <grin>
FiddlerDave-
I agree with your estimate of the US healthcare situation- see the discussion in the Triage thread. The insurance companies bleed the doctors and the doctors bleed us and our employers. (and you thought that bleeding as a medical treatment went out in the 19th century!!) Sigh. Plus que ca change plus que c’est la meme chose…..
“In point of fact, I do have a copy of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights in a little Penguin pocket edition. I keep it in my briefcase to help educate It’s getting pretty dogeared and I probably need a new one or three “
Throw it away. Without Habeus Corpus, there is nothing else.
Scaredy Cat – at 18:01
Differences in opinion does not necessarily mean differences in ethics in my opinion. <grin> If I have “a right” to an opinion, I should fully expect that someone else should just as rightfully have one of their own … and it might just be different from mine. LOL!
I’m really not making light of the seriousness … just of the fact that I might get my nose out of joint because someone would have a difference of opinion from me. That’s life.
My opinion(s) are based on my life experiences. I should be willing, in that case, to accept that someone else’s life experiences may lead to a different opinion.
My statements might have seemed over-simplified, but at the same time, in my experiences and in the area that those experiences occured in … geographically, socially, and financially … it isn’t the simplification that it might seem. I’ve worked on both sides of the fence with regard to subsidies. I’ve seen both the best and the worst that such assistance can create. But there is a population of the receivers that do just that … refuse to get work, intentionally change their circumstances so that work is not required to continue receiving assistance, or refuse to keep a job once acquired. It is called system manipulation and is a systemic problem with ant assistance program whether it involves cash or goods. In our area, out of necessity, they have begun to truly crack down on that kind of fraud and abuse and every day there are many cases pending appeal of assistance termination in the section 8 office alone. Welfare fraud is a frequent item when I pull civil/criminal reports on lease applications.
I’m not saying that so-called “white collar crime” is any less of a problem, but my experience does not lie in that area. That is one of the reasons for my immediate follow-up post where I stated that everyone … a universal “us” … need to be accountable and responsible for our choice and actions.
As in the case of disaster victims, there may be a need for a term of allowance. But there should be a definite time limit on any type of assistance and there shouldn’t be a forgiveness factor involved. The time given should be adequate for some type of financial reorganization if they need it … but no one should simply be let off “the hook.” Hey, our family will be in a bad way if the economy collapses. We hold several mortgages that are far and away from being paid off. But I don’t expect TPTB to “set me free” from my debts. I expect to behave responsibly regardless of the good or bad circumstances. I expect that same of others that I expect from myself.
Urdar-Norway – at 21:30
Try not to be too hard on us here in the “States”. Compared to the Vikings we are just toddlers. We (as a nation) are puritanical, I suppose. We fought several wars because we don’t like dictators (here or other places in the world). If TSHTF, it will probably be that way again. We are lasissez-faire. Live and let live; as long as you stay out of my yard and don’t steal my apples out of MY tree. And if we have to unite in force, watch out. Eventually, peace will win out, because those who will not allow it will be stopped.
If things get rough after PF, I don’t believe we will have to consciously decide how to act, I believe it will come naturally and swiftly. About the time it takes to draw and fire. Otherwise, someone else will. At least, with those who would do you harm. Count on it.
By the way, Urdar, I have friends in Sweden. It’s a beautiful country.
Don’t the Swedes and Norwegians make jokes about each other (in a jocular way, of course)? : )
Hide in the Hills-You had better start hiding.
Medical Maven, actually the Swedes joke about the Norwegians, but by the time the Norwegians realize what has happened, they are halfway home from the cocktail party! : )
Or so it has been explained to this half-Swede, half-Norwegian by very proud Swedish grandparents.
“It is called system manipulation and is a systemic problem with any assistance program whether it involves cash or goods. “ I guess I have some problem with the focus of these concerns. It is routine and accepted that our government operate huge cash assistance programs for well-connected,powerful interests in this country. If these entitlements (that DWARF those you discuss) to the rich received 1/10th the outrage and concern the low caste entitlement people get, our budget would be balanced and taxes lowered. 200 billion in farm subsidies (many of which are buy programs that raise the overall prices for commodities like milk for EVERYBODY at enromous societal cost to the poor), enormously profitable companies getting tax credits (Enron put their’s to good use in offshore bogus businesses). And the fraud in these programs is rampant, when anyone bothers to take a look. Although US law has made “thought crime” a priority here - its not eneough to show a $100 million showed up in some executives personal bank account, we have to show he KNEW IN HIS MIND it was a crime and he INTENDED to defraud. Virtually impossible to do.\Let me make you a suggestion - pick 5 people entering the permanently or long-term disabled world, like car accidents, MS, heart problems, help them navigate the years of bureacracy and cruel comments of people, to get the $600/month, 2 years of waiting (once approved) for Medicare (that few doctors take anymore), 5 to 10 years (or more) of waiting for Section 8 and see the true “wonderful world of entitlements” you describe. Yes, there are frauds, but some people (many of them not obvious to a brief contact) can get upset or angry when what they have is being denied or taken away because it means they are going to lose what little they have,live in the street, or just die…..I live in Orange County, CA one of the richest counties in the country with the lowest charity rates, much of that goes to tax-dodge scams like the Crystal Cathedral, and if the people today can spare huge amounts for the top citizens, can’t spare what literally is change money to those who can’t fit in a “go-go” world where every employee has to compete with 12 year olds in China and if you have a health problem, the new health databases means there won’t be an opening for you anyway, no matter how many people a company needs to hire. Everyone in the US was handed a tremendous lagacy of wealth by previous generations. If charity would allow these people to live, it might be different, but it don’t. Which to me is a matter of shame this country should consider when it calls itself the “greatest in the world”.
Whether or not the pandemic comes, we will be in for a very bumpy ride. Nature is merely showing us who is really calling the shots. She will get rid of a lot of us one way or another, and we all don’t want it to be us. I’m quite content to be an American, don’t feel the bones of our Republic need altering. If we stick to the constitution we’ll muddle through anything. The companies want globalization, the TPTB want it, but I think the American people are pretty fed up, and getting vocal about it. We’ll see what happens in Nov. Nature is shaking things up, so are some of us.
I found this thread to be one of the most interesting and satisfying conversations I’ve read since I’ve been visiting the Flu Wiki. I’m sure that it is over so I’m probably just talking to myself (and I seem to do that more and more), but I thought I would like to add a couple of thoughts concerning government. I told Dude some time ago that I always carried an “emergency” copy of the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution with me. He laughed and thought I was joking. Actually I always have it at hand, because for me the cornerstone of any society is the contract between the leaders and the people. And in America, a country that is sometimes flawed, sometimes corrupt and violent, sometimes sluggish and lethargic, one thing is a constant. We created the perfect political system, one that simply and eloquently states that people have the right to Life, Liberty, and (drumroll please) The Pursuit of Happiness. When Thomas Jefferson changed that one simple word “property” (advocated by the British landed gentry in the philosophies of Harrington and Locke)to “happiness”, he forever and irrevocably challenged the notion that men should be judged solely by their possessions. Although as a wealthy slaveowner he respected and honored wealth, he also recognized that in this country people were free to choose to pursue talents and careers that were not available before this era.
The second pertinent point I would like to make (for my ghostly audience), is that for the first time in the history of the world (with all due respect for the Magna Charta that only bestowed rights on the barons), people had the right to demand a contract with their government. And if at any time the government did not honor that contract, the people could overthrow it. So overthrow it they did at a later time (the failed Articles of Confederation).
So my point is (for those of you who are still not snoring), I too am an optimist. If we live by this most perfect document, we can restore our society. Perhaps it will be block by block, or even house by house. But we can rebuild. I would like to think that Democracy and Jeffersonian ideals are too ingrained to be defeated by a bug, even if it is a Super Virus. If it comes to a slapdown between the Declaration of Independence and the Bird Flu, I’m betting on Jefferson’s essay.
History Lover-
Hear, hear! Well said sir, VERY well said. The only minor exception I would take to that post is that we have a Republic, not a democracy……..
shakespeare and jefferson thought that democracy was “mob rule”. perhaps next time a benovolent meritocracy.
History Lover: I’m listening, and loving what you say. Can’t say I’m as optimistic as you are, but I hope it turns out the way you see it all.
The ideas alone are not enough; we need to have the backbone and the ability to fight for our ideals. As the teacher said when he heard of the “shot heard round the world” on the morning of April 19th, “Deponite Libros!”
History Lover – at 17:57
I totally agree. I spend my days interpreting both our Federal and State Constitutions and statutes, as well as common law and applying that law to unique cases - it’s all history and stare decisis. These documents are the foundation that will guide our country through the worst of times. Just look what we’ve been through in 200 years. I think England and Canada, as well many EU countries will survive as well. A pandemic, however, will be a civilization buster for many countries.
History Lover,
Let me add my kudos for your post at 17:57. Regardless of how small or fragmented the resulting communities are in the US after a severe pandemic, it is important that we continue to abide by the ideals of the Constitution. When it was written, the country was small and fragmented. There was no grid.
I say - “No to warlords, yes to elections, no matter what.”
LMWatbullRun - This country has been called many things - a Republic, a Democracy, a Representative Democracy. Regardless of what we are called, I think the most important thing is that we have a contract government. And it’s not sir, it’s ma’m. (We southerners can get ten syllables out of that word ma’m.)
Thanks to everyone else who posted. I teach American History at the college level, and I am forever humbled by the love that I see students exhibit for our country. In addition having taught students from all around the world, I can say that these democratic ideals are held as highly by these citizens. Perhaps it is because I have contact with young people who are continually learning their country’s history that I am optimist.
tjclaw1 - At the same time I agree that what you say is true. For many countries, a pandemic would be a civilization buster. As you well know, that has happened in history for many reasons and is certainly happening today. We have only to look at genocidal campaigns in Africa, war in the Middle East, and cruel dictatorships such as North Korea to know how fragile civilization can be.
History Lover – at 08:59
Yes some countries will survive and some will crumble. I keep thinking about the Aztec and how they crumbled undered the virus of smallpox more than under the attack of the Europeans. But viruses alone cannot kill ideas like democracy.
“….Outnumbered, the Spanish were forced to flee. In the fighting, the Spanish soldier carrying smallpox died. After the battle, the Aztecs contracted the virus from the invaders’ bodies. Cortes would not return to the capital until August 1521. In the meantime smallpox devastated the Aztec population. It killed most of the Aztec army, the emperor, and 25% of the overall population. A Spanish priest left this description: “As the Indians did not know the remedy of the disease…they died in heaps, like bedbugs. In many places it happened that everyone in a house died and, as it was impossible to bury the great number of dead, they pulled down the houses over them so that their homes become their tombs.” On Cortés’ return, he found the Aztec army’s chain of command in ruins. The soldiers who lived were still weak from the disease. Cortés then easily defeated the Aztecs and entered Tenochtitlán, where he found that smallpox had killed more Aztecs than had the cannons. The Spaniards said that they could not walk through the streets without stepping on the bodies of smallpox victims.”
HL
Mah most verah humble apologies, Maaaam!
As an adoptive southerner I know whereof you speak.
FiddlerDave-
Habeas Corpus is still written in our hearts, whether or not the writing can be read by those presently in charge. And the Bill of Rights is still the highest law in this country. My oath is to the Constitution and the Bill of Rights.
I may be antique, but I stick by my principles and my oaths. As I said elsewhere, after a pandemic I can guarantee that the Bill of Rights will be upheld within 700 yards of my position as long as I am breathing.
It may be written in our hearts, but a government agency NOW can simply “disappear” you by secret proclamation of your status to be “supporter of the enemy”, whatever that may be decided to be by the same agency. There is no public knowledge. There are no appeals. There is no oversight by anyone other than the person/party who wished to “disappear” you. Your family can call the police, papers, CIA, their congressman, and NOBODY, by threat of similar punishment, can mention even the fact you were taken. No Freedom of Information laws apply. You are just, simply, mysteriously, gone. You ALSO can legally be sent to a foreign country, one favorite right now is Uzbekistan, where boiling alive is a favorite interrogation technique and I am quite sure you will confess to anything. Where are your rights then? What part of the constitution matters or applies to assist you? We now have this NOW! And this will improve when civilization is under pandemic conditions or a city is blown up? I am not suggesting our current administration would do this on a wide scale, but you can be certain we will have a leader who WILL, and you won’t even know. And you cannot say “THIS accusation has Habeas and THIS accusation does not” - To have a SINGLE EXCEPTION is the ultimate trump card to give a leader who desires ultimate control his ultimate excuse for any desire he may have, unquestionable, unknowable, unappealable power over the freedom, life , and death over every person in the land. There is NO contract in the case where one side can simply set it aside on his whim. That is why Habeas Corpus was the foundation upon which all other freedoms could grow, and these freedoms cannot exist in its absence.
Fiddlerdave – at 23:41
Never said that I thought all subsidies bad any more than I said I thought all subsidies are good. When any subsidy system is put into practice, it is with a good intent. This is whether the subsidies support individuals, families, or farmers, etc.
The problems arise when those receiving the subsidies become dependent on them and they become permanent rather than temporary. There should be firm limitations on assistance, financial and time limitations at the very least.
I believe in the free market economy. It isn’t always fair. Good people sometimes cannot survive in such an economy … but it is better than most of the alternatives out there. It is also the most honest … so long as people don’t muck it up trying to make things “fair.” Grown ups should be mature enough to realize there is no such thing as true fairness.
Those same concepts are going to be important to understand during recovering from any world effecting event, such as a pandemic.
What would happen if a few neighborhoods were doing reasonably well using the barter system … doing well until someone came along and told them that they had to value various barter items in a different way from other barter items? Suddenly the system loses some of its free-trade ability to meet the needs of the traders involved. Eventually too much fiddling and the barter system collapses leaving those neighborhoods back to being in a bad way.
I realize some attitudes about are based on perceptions and experience within the system. It will be these perceptions and experiences that we will carry into a post-pandemic economy.
Kathy in Fl at 22:30-Great post. The equitable, fair-minded “utopias” just end up making everybody equally miserable, (and equally unmotivated I might add).
Kathy in FL – at 22:30 I don’t get it then. I agree that a free market economy is excellant, and I would love to see one in the USA someday. I find it amusing that the many powerful forces also talk in favor of it EXCEPT for those things that would cost them money. However, in the arena of a power grid for the country, I see that as a issue more important than many other issues most are comfortable with - highways, et. al. Our country is destroyed as thoroughly without power as it is by a nuclear blast. I don’t undertand why the preparation of a grid that will withstand natural or enemy attack is not on the same level as an anti-misslie system There is NO incentive in the free market for this kind of readyness, which is inherently unprofitable except to the existence of the society as a WHOLE. A rickety, just-able-to-handle-the-load system is the most profitable system for a capitalist to do, and I would love to see any for-profit industry in the USA that has produced any other result concerning preparedness for an uncommon problem (hard to see examples of preparedness for common problems). So do we sit here and say “we OUGHT to have something that works?” And I will reiterate, please give me some kind of reasoning on why a totally private utility system would care about 100 year pandemics or terrorist attacks? Any examples AT ALL? That is why we have a “socialist” federal military defense, which should include our power grid. I am not talking about cars, movies, TVS, or ANY other industry, I am talking about the power grid that makes ALL other industries POSSIBLE!
I don’t mean to shout with caps, just haven’t figured out some of the more subtle emphasis methods in this software. :) And I have no hope anymore this country will be ready for anything coming, so I find, other than sorrow for the children of this nation and what they won’t have when we are back at an 1800′s level of existence (and population level), that its only a philosphical exercise to have these discussions. Please don’t assume I am jumping up and down. I enjoy this, I hope others do too.
Fiddlerdave – at 23:22
I my opinion? Its perception. Free trade is a separate animal from what you are talking about. Free trade is about having a system that optimizes itself.
If the people utilizing a product have no fear of a pandemic … or any other grand size event that theoretically could shake their ability to obtain the product … then just-in-time or what ever other “trick of the trade” holds no threat and they should focus on income maximization on those principles.
However, if the people/person utilizing a product foresee a catastrophic event … even if that event was only hypothetical, though reasonably possible … then they would maximize their needs based on those beliefs.
Protection of a major economic product … electricity for example … isn’t in violation of free trade. Its a protection of an asset.
Of course there are probably ways to go about that “protection” that would be a violation of free trade.
Sometimes you have to walk a fine line.
Its the same as when I have to decide to spend my limited budget dollars. While I’m participating in free market trade by choosing where I spend those dollars, paying more for a product that I feel deserves being paid more for … as well as the reverse … I also chose to protect certain of my needs by paying for stuff that I might not need immediately, but just in case.
In my example I just goods as an example, but you could view services in the same way.
The question becomes how much do we still invest in our current life and how much do we invest in our expected future life? If we all truly believe that a pandemic is coming, then why are we not totally invested … financially, time-wise, etc. … in that expected future? And do we then moan and groan if the event comes to pass and we didn’t do everything we could to “protect” the goods and services that we need to continue? Or, if it never happens do we moan and groan about the money and time we did spend in preparation that could of been put to use in other areas of our lives? Perception.
Inthehills:Jefferson admired the great unwashed masses rather than the preening elite of his time. It would have been Hamilton who wished to create a meritocracy. Hamilton thought that the great discerning factor of self worth was wealth. His ideas concerning funding the national debt after the Revolution were more about creating a plutocracy than they were about honoring debts.
Jefferson placed his stock with the farmer on the frontier. He distrusted large standing armies. As president, he discovered the only practical way to curtail growing bureaucracies, he cut off funding. As a slave holder and fancier of brown sugar, he had the good sense to write about the way things ought to be in the Declaration rather than write about the way they were. He could just as easily have said: “We hold these truths to be self evident that all white men are created equal.” Jefferson was far from stupid and no doubt understood full well that succeeding generations would consider him a hypocrite. Thank God that he was less concerned about his legacy and more concerned about giving us a goal to strive for.
It was violations of habeas corpus that helped sweep Jefferson into to the White House. The sedition acts were being used by the federalist to silence their opponents. I find it an irony of history that the man most responsible for shredding the constitution in the 19th century freed the slaves. The man most responsible for shredding it in the 20th century instituted the great entitlement programs that so many enjoy today.
We will soon see how the body politic reacts to the current transgressions. It is in my nature to hold in great suspicion anyone who holds himself out as worthy enough to tell the rest of us how to manage our private lives. In my personal experience, I have found the do-gooder elite to be some of the most offending fascists. Those who would save us on the local level may in fact be the most dangerous. Some pretty terrible images came out of New Orleans. The little old lady in her kitchen being tackled by three linebacker policemen comes to mind.
I failed to sign the post.
anonymous at6:46 john adams,not jefferson,initiated the alien and sedition act.it was intended as a way to control the french intrigues in the colonys. it was was obviously abused.jefferson rebuked the act. as to jefferson’s “brown sugar”,who bloody cares. jefferson knew that slavery would eventually rend the new country.all his slaves were freed upon his death.he died conflicted and poor. he was a romantic,and certainly human,but his words sir;his words.
Action has consequence.
Ideas and philosophy guide all action.
Those who doubt the power of ideas, and like to think in concretes, are likely to see some dreadfully real results.
In the aftermath of a severe pandemic, with present paradigms shattered, it will be easier to replant the Enlightenment philosophy.
Inthehills: You are correct. It was the Adams administration that championed the alien and sedition acts. The sedition acts were used imprison Jeffersonian Republicans. Mr. Jefferson and Mr. Madison led the nullifiers which put out the idea that a state legislature could determine an act of congress to be unconstitutional. This was the first practical step towards civil war. Adams was a federalist bent on concentration of national power. Jefferson was in the opposite corner.
I do a lot of genealogical research. One of the thing that I’ve discovered from census records (mostly from IL, AR, AL, MS, LA, TX so this may not hold true across all states) is that education was not a direct line from uneducated to educated. When there is a event that disrupts society and the economy, there is generation of children that are less educated than their parents.
An event that disrupted one generation was the Civil War. Many of the children (in the research that I’ve done) born from 1853–1875 to adults who could read and reported in later census records that they could not read or write. This was quite a surprise to me. I had assumed that education progressed in a straight line with each successive generation being better educated than the previous.
By the time the Civil War generation began to have children the economy had improved and the educational system was back in place and the majority of the children born after 1875 could read and write even when their parents could not.
When an event occurs that disrupts society, formal education is one of the things that are moved down on one’s list of priorities to be replaced with practical education: can you butcher a pig, build a fire, plant a crop, etc.
It makes sense. If a family is having difficulty with the essentials of life, food and shelter, being formally educated does not put food on the table. But, when the impact of a disrupting event lessens, then education is again a worthwhile endeavor, and having the ability to calculate interest or compose a letter is a valuable skill worth investing time and effort in to learn.
If one accepts that this broken line of education historically happens then will it not be magnified this time? Our world requires many educated and skilled workers to keep it on functioning well.
Is it possible that we will survive the pandemic with an infrastructure relatively intact to see it slowly disintegrate at a later time?
It’s my perception, correct or incorrect, that many baby boomers were coddled as children, and many have coddled their children even more. Public education is expensive and pretty much wasted on a percentage of the kids out there. I have talked to bright kids, I’ve talked to the ones who go to school, but never read a book that hasn’t been forced on them. Does education give anyone common sense? I think that is something inate in a person, and probably one of the most important attributes that will be needed in a post pandemic or multiple disaster period. If it comes to that, I think we will have a period that is similar to post World War 11 England. Rationing of resources. Black markets. Entepreneurs.
On one of the flu blogs in the last year I read a post from a young man in Argentina. He was talking about the economic collapse in that country and how it now had a flourishing black market.
One of the things that he mentioned was gold. He recommended that you should start accumulating gold, not good gold coins, but bulk gold: rings, chains, etc.
He claimed that there were gold buyers everywhere, but that they paid a set price for gold: any gold coins or jewelry because a street trader has no way to verify the quality of the gold.
This sounds reasonable.
Do you think the revision of the insurrection law on the 17th was done because of the fear of a pandemic? I think this was done in the middle of the night and I haven’t seen much press on it. “Subtitle E: Defense Against Terrorism and Related Security Matters
“(Sec. 1042) Revises federal provisions allowing the President to utilize the Armed Forces in connection with interference with federal and state law to allow the President to employ the Armed Forces and National Guard in federal service to restore public order in cases of [b] natural disaster [/b], epidemic or other public health emergency, terrorist attack or incident, or [b] domestic violence [/b]. Requires the President to notify Congress within 14 days of the exercise of such authority. Authorizes the President, when exercising such authority, to direct the Secretary to provide supplies, services, and equipment to persons affected by the situation.”
This effectively takes control of the national guard from the states. “In a stealth maneuver, President Bush has signed into law a provision which, according to Senator Patrick Leahy (D-Vermont), will actually encourage the President to declare federal martial law (1). It does so by revising the Insurrection Act, a set of laws that limits the President’s ability to deploy troops within the United States. The Insurrection Act (10 U.S.C.331 −335) has historically, along with the Posse Comitatus Act (18 U.S.C.1385), helped to enforce strict prohibitions on military involvement in domestic law enforcement. With one cloaked swipe of his pen, Bush is seeking to undo those prohibitions.
Public Law 109–364, or the “John Warner Defense Authorization Act of 2007″ (H.R.5122) (2), which was signed by the commander in chief on October 17th, 2006, in a private Oval Office ceremony, allows the President to declare a “public emergency” and station troops anywhere in America and take control of state-based National Guard units without the consent of the governor or local authorities, in order to “suppress public disorder.”
control,yes. for a pandemic,doubtfull.
mojo – at 13:18 “…With one cloaked swipe of his pen, Bush is seeking to undo those prohibitions. …”
Yes, but with one correction. It’s already a done deal.
mojo – at 13:18 Do you think the revision of the insurrection law on the 17th was done because of the fear of a pandemic? I think we are headed for some extreme times here in the US (and around the world in general), BF or no BF. I think the President is aware and preparing to take action necessary to keep the country from falling into anarchy. There are many here and elsewhere preparing not only for the BF but for other things as well. Within two years a war will break out involving Iran, whether Iran starts it, or Israel or us really doesn’t matter but it will come to our shores in the form of terror cells and WMD’s of some sort. Any one thing is reason enough to have a healthy level of fear, I just hope & pray we don’t see them come at the same time.
“Anarchy” is always being defined by current leaderships as any condition where the current leaders is not in charge. My rather more cynical view is that power hungry leaders the world over will view the pandemic catastrophe (like “terrorism”)as an opportunity to gain and establish additional power. “of course” we need to keep “order”. Opposing ANY policy is treasonous and defines you as an enemy (“You are either with us or against us”). “Of course” we will need to protect the military, the centers of power and property first and foremost at ANY cost to the citizenry, how can the citizens live without their leaders?. Frankly, the military will only incidently hand out food or vaccines - its primary purpose will be to establish and hold martial law, suspension of rights and consolidate the current leader’s power. Elections will be suspended, or held in areas slected to support the current regimes. Private armies will become even more common, run by multinationals witht he approval and even payment from governments. Many leaders will launch wars or land grabs on neighbors, even if only as an excuse to distract the citizenry from the hell the leaders should have been helping to be prepared for. With the current hard push to activate and establish insurrection laws and abrogation of all rights via terror fears the world over, something terrible like pandemic will “fill the bill” for completion of these designs that far too many people remain complacent about, or support in order to be “safe”.
“My oath is to the Constitution and the Bill of Rights.”
Absolutely. And I will fight to the death to protect and maintain it.
The revised insurrection law guts Posse Comitatus. I’m old enough to remember Kent State. Will we see another in my lifetime?
That would be…….. very unfortunate.
Thread is long and needs to be continued, so click here to go to Part II