Hypothetically: If someone walks into a room(e.g. office) breathing Highly Pathogenic Bird Flu, spends the working day in there, and then goes home and decides that he is too sick to go to work from then on…For how long will the office be unsafe for others to walk into?
These are the types of questions that we all need some form of education in, so as to realise the risks involved in doing what we plan to do if/when TSHTF. We can say, keep your social distance, but we need to nail down some real science on the matter before anybody treats anything seriously. SIP is the only way for me, but people will work and it should be known as to what the risks are and how to limit them.
BLue - I don’t know if all the answers are there yet. I don’t think there has been much work done on this are in terms of AF - the countires where human cases are occuring don’t have the resources. And even on this forum, I’ve read all different kinds of figures on how long ordinary viruses last on different surfaces (hard vs soft) anthing from a few hours on hard surfaces to 24 to 36+ hours, and soft even longer. But that’s “regular” stuff. Then add the droplets from a sick person coughing or sneezing. There is also contradictory figures on how long and infected person sheds the virus before coming ill - anywhere from 1–17 days! So your fictious person could have infected everyone in the office two days before becoming ill and decided to stay home.
This is why once it starts, it’s steam rolling down the track and nothing is going to stop it.
Yeh…I don’t understand why absentee rate would only be 30–50% No-we don’t know much. I want to know how the people that do die, do die. The only answer is by being foolhardy and not listening to warnings-except of course the people who are just unlucky when at first there was no warning. The only option for me is to completely SIP until further notice when TSHTF, Period. In the face of the unknown,what else can you do. Even with a mask it has been said that it would be foohardy to walk out into the middle of known hazardous conditions if it can at all be avoided!!
Blue – at 23:04 why absentee rate would only be 30–50%
most of those studies that select about 40% absentee rates also only select about 2% at the most for their fatality rate and some where around 20 to 40% infection rates.
I hope that it is that low but I fear (unrealistic ??)that the numbers may be much higher than the 1918 models.
OK They predict that most people will take the chance that it will not happen(death) to them given the 2% even if you catch it. The more that catch it the more it spreads so…. WATCH OUT, EH! It develops a Low Fatality rate to infect more people and it works. People love to work. It’s a real pickle. I want to SIP but I’m not sure for how long I can do this. Money has to be saved now to pay rent and bills during the extent you SIP for aswell-otherwise you will have to break it.
Blue:
You think you got problems? The majority of hospitals will not house their employees. They will be expected to work a diaster, drive home, and then repeat this day after day? That’s why I said on an earlier thread HCW absenteeism will be in 80–90% bracket if CFR is high. That CFR is going to make the difference in work of all types.
There is considerable difference in absenteeism due to illness - which is what the 35% to 40% figures are usually based on - and the absenteeism overall from illness and fear of illness - I agree this will push it to 80–90%.
When to SIP? Knowing people will be contagious before they are symptomatic makes this an extremely difficult decision to make. To be truely effective SIP has to commence before any infection reaches the region - how will we know that far in advance?
Without a crystal ball I guess we will have to rely on gut instinct.
at the conference i attended in Sept, one study was mentioned that projected 90% worker outages.
Blue - this is what has me concerned as well. Folks I work with are notorious for coming to work sick with all kinds of germs!
I’m like you as well - I can SIP for a while but not forever. Also as a nonessential state employee I think my state will send me home on some sort of administrative paid leave. They normally do that for hurricanes, floods, etc. But how long will they pay us? Maybe 2 weeks at the max?
Blue, “If someone walks into a room(e.g. office) breathing Highly Pathogenic Bird Flu, spends the working day in there, and then goes home and decides that he is too sick to go to work from then on”
more importantly perhaps, how many other people did that person infect at home, on the way to work, at work, at lunch, at meetings, on the way home from work…?
Sure am amazed some officials still say the cfr has to drop; it could spread without that, by transmitting before illness, and, great air fares. (And, how many people people come in contact with every day.)
Sounds like planning for a Cat.1 hurricane, because, it is, on average, more likely, and, you know your levees won’t hold past Cat.2. (When the weather scientists are pointing to a Cat.5 hurricane offshore, askin’, Whatcha gonna do, when it comes for you?!)
I think CFR dropping would also mean that symptoms would be less severe, so that even when symptoms appear they are infact almost invisible/ just not worried about/obvious as to being a potentially lethal little travelling concern…and in this way it spreads to substantially more people! !Something with a high CFR would have considerably worse, therefore more noticeable, side feffects! Good point though-it could still spread with a high CFR…but I doubt it would get as far-therefore maybe not reaching a pandemic status. This would probably be the reason that other viruses don’t get out of hand…but I can’t think of specific examples as I don’t know too much about viruses, fullstop.
Blue – at 22:08 “it could still spread with a high CFR…but I doubt it would get as far”
I had been thinking that the CFR would drop. However, then I read about the Aztec and smallpox (a virus). They had about a 80% death rate. So that seems to say that a very high CFR could exist when it is a “new” virus with no immunity.