Forum: Dr Woodson Book Says We Will All Be Eposed to It

I am reading Dr Woodosn’s book and it is excellent so far. He says we will all be exposed to it and 40% will get sick, 40% will have minor or no syptoms, and 20% no effect at all even thouhg exposed. If we will not be able to avoid exposure either before or after the flu, then by prepping aren’t we just delaying the inevitable. I guess the bright side is that if we somehow stay virus free, then on the other side of it, we can get a vaccine.

Comments please on the theory of prepping or just getting it over. He discusses masks, hand washing etc, but if we have a sick person in our house we will be exposed no matter what.

Dr W. are you prepping and is so why, if you are going to get it anyway. I have not finsihed the book, so maybe he answers these questions later on.

I think we want to prep because of stores closing, etc. You will still need to eat, drink, etc. while it is going around…whether or not you have it or someone in your family. Not only will persons who work at stores, gas stations, etc., get sick and stay home, but remeber the caos during Katrina. People were stealing, hurting others and all kinds of scary stuff. I would rather have enough supplies if it comes to that, rather than to go out in that kind of caos.

I always fear JIT collapse than Panflu itself.

NJ Jeeper — my thoughts on “prepping” are:

2 weeks of easy food for you and your family in case of illness (mom down with the flu, kids can bring you soup, eat cereal)

2 more weeks of food and supplies so you can stay home in case you are quarantined and don’t like the fod you are brought by the authorities (if they have a plan for that, and can actually do it.)

2 to 4 more weeks of food and supplies so you can Just Stay Home in the event it is a severe pandemic and you just don’t want to risk going out anywhere.

(that’s 6 to 8 weeks total in your pantry right there.)

After that — your prepping more for collapse, or to have some to share with others— road blocks, no gas; food shortages, a hurricane/blizzard during the pandemic, peak oil, whatever!

I agree with betty, most of us will not die if there is a pandemic, but we have to eat. I am prepping, not to SIP, but be able to maintain as normal a lifestyle (within my home) as possible. I don’t want to run out of TP if I don’t have to.

 How will we be exposed to it if we SIP fully?

NJ Jeeper and Blue,

I think that Woodson’s projections apply to the general population, but not necessarily to preppers. In my opinion, to shelter in place is only way to prevent contact with those who may be sick with the flu. Those who are not prepared to SIP will eventually be driven from their homes by hunger, medicine, or toiletries. Then, they will be exposed.

SIP is not a guarantee of survival, but failure to SIP is a guarantee of exposure. How much prep is enough? I am planning for off and on SIP for about 2 years.

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:04

I would not count on the authorities bringing food to neighborhoods, let alone door to door, especially early on in the pandemic. Food may be distributed in some urban/suburban areas at least, but in a worst-case scenario, I sure wouldn’t count on it.

That’s Just Ducky,

How long did it take to supply Aquafina and MREs to the Superdome in New Orleans? Did it ever happen?

Do not count on the government to distribute food and water anywhere.

ACM- Thats how I prepped-2 weeks “flu food” for each member-broths, gateraids, clear liquids for each member, then two weeks easy food for kids to cook if I get sick, then about a month of frozen meals in the freezer, then I just keep adding dry/canned goods.

I’m really prepping more in view of distrubution breakdown rather than avoiding the flu. Also, I just want to avoid the chaos. Its kind of like when we have really bad weather and the weather people advise everyone to stay off the roads and you allways have some idiot that thinks he’s magically immune to icy roads and off the road he goes, then everyone has to go out and rescue him. And I know sometimes people have to go out-my daughter decided she wanted to be born RIGHT NOW NO WAITING in the middle of a pretty good snow storm, but somehow it seems like its the idiot going out in the storm for beer and lottery tickets that has to get rescued.

It seems to me that if people who can would just prep for as long as they can and just stay home, safe and sound out of the way, it would just make things easier for those who are trying to maintain the grid or get supply lines flowing or whatever.

It would really suck to catch the flu and survive it and then die of hunger or thirst because you can’t get supplies. Don’t forget, the recovery time for this flu is months. It’s not like it will be 2 weeks and then you could go out hunting or something.

In Micronesia, pregnant ladies are often brought to the hospital if a typhoon is approaching. There is a high correlation between big storms and births (makes sense biologically — a time when no predators are out).

I once was that idiot on the icy roads. Had little kids at home — knew there was a storm coming but was “busy” — then “out” of everything (including lice shampoo which was suddenly an important item — the kids just erupted in crawlies) so off I go, sliding through stop signs, praying like mad. Got grocercies, got home, started delousing. I remember being too tired to cry (DH was gone that week). That experience left permanent mental scars. Never again! We may not eat elegantly, but there is enough in the pantry so that we can wait out a “storm” be it weather or other events. That’s why I prep. I want to choose when we venture out.

I’m sure not counting on anyone in MY county bringin’ food by!

I was just kidding.

I remember someone posting something in the NY thread about being told to stockpile at least 2 weeks worth of food and after that, if people needed food, it would be “delivered to them”. Well even if it would be — and I highly doubt it — just the thought of what someone might bring me would be enough to get me prepping. Unless I’m staring I am VERY particular about what I eat! (-:

And the plans on paper say, it is local authorities’ responsibility to meet their people’s needs; not fed nor state.

Plans go on to suggest, all the nice “stakeholders” (who do not know who they are, have not seen the govt to-do lists with their groups on them, and have not been meeting with local “emergency” -Sh!- planning committees, and don’t know they are assumed to be the agencies that will help), with their unprepared volunteers, and with yet-unbought stockpiles, will be called on to help meet the needs of those unprepared “homebound by illness or quarantine.”

(How these helpers are expected not to get a contagious pandemic when medical care for same will be overwhelmed is left as an pandemic-period excercise for the participant.)

Olymom- a mom going out to buy groceries and lice shampoo for her little kids is, in my book, a totally different thing than a beer and Lotto run. I’ve been out, too when I should have been in and like you I learned a valuable lesson!

My dh and a buddy volunteered to help county road crew after a ice storm and stopped to help a guy who went off the road. Making conversation while he got his chains out of the back of his truck, dh asked the guy, why in the world he was out on such bad road-half inch black ice. the guy said he ‘d just bought a new Blazer and he thought it would be fun. That didn’t sit too well, but then the guy went on to say it was a good thing these guys stopped other wise he’d have to pay for a tow truck! These guys would get him out for free! Dh wanted to just toss the chains in the back of the truck and leave him there but somehow dh’s friend was related to this guys wife, and he’d catch all kinds of hell if he left her husband stranded. So they spent considerable time and energy getting this jerk out of the ditch

And I know a guy who just minents after a tornado went through, and all the Emergency Personal were on tv/radio pleading with people to stay in there homes, off the roads, got in his car, driving around gawking at all the damage. Did he stop to help anyone? NO. He was just out there getting in peoples way. He did manage to get on tv though.

Furthermore-Dh and I and two toddlers were trapped in our house during a freak snowstorm. It took the National Guard FOUR days to get to us-and the place we lived then wasn’t nearly as isolated as it is now. We didn’t have power for two weeks. If friends/relatives give me a hard time about prepping I look ‘em in the eye and say “Two Toddlers, two weeks”

I’m just saying that it will be a very chaotic time. I don’t want to do anything to hamper the efforts of those folks who are doing their best to get things back on track, and on a more selfish note, I don’t want to be caught out in all the panicky chaos-I prefer to stay in and panic in the comfort of my own home!:-)

I don’t have toddlers anymore-now I have two teens-I wonder which is worse? ;-)

Thanks for the comments. I will continue to top off my preps and try to stay away from the chaos when it happens. But if he is right and we all get it in one form or another, then SIP may not be the answer. I am wrestling with SIP vs the reality of going to work and trying to stay away from co-workers.

Anyway no change in my plans, but I am not adjusting to giving in to getting it. Wouldn’t it be something to SIP and miss the first wave and get knocked down by the 2nd or 2rd wave which could be worse than the first.

Forget SIP.

If the CFR stays high, the only solution will be what Osterholm has done.

Plan for protective sequestration.

Once you are in and the door is locked, no leaving until you have a rational assurance that it’s “all clear”, and then only long enough to resupply for the 2nd wave.

I don’t plan on doing the latter (which may be the worst wave), and it’s why I have 18 months of full PS preps, working on 24 months to ride out several waves.

Yes, I probably forgot SOMETHING. But if the CFR remains high, it won’t be worth risking my life over.

YMMV

It is my opinion that no one will be able to avoid exposure even when SIP. During the Spanish Flu, virtually every home had at least one sick person. Even if you were able to control yourself for 18-months, do you really think you can control your family? What about your friends? Are you going to refuse to let your daughter back in the house after she was caught visiting her boyfriend late one night? SIP will not be 100% effective for most small groups. The larger the number of people in your group, the less likely that it will succeed. It simply is counter to human nature.

Even though I think SIP is a failed strategy, I still support preparing vigorously for the pandemic. The medical preparation is clearly wise so you can take care of sick family members when access to conventional care is lacking. Preparing to compensate for a breakdown in the economic and social infrastructure is wise because the unprepared will be cast into an 18 month long horror that will extract a price worse than death from not a few. Preparation is not just about living though the long emergency, it is also about living safely and as well as possible through a chaotic time.

By preparing for this risk, we are improving our chances for our families to survive it intact. In one piece both physically and psychologically. Preparing does not guarantee that this will be the outcome, but it is a rational response to the risk of pandemic influenza and one that we can manage on our own. I do not advocate trying the negotiate the pandemic alone or as a nuclear family. There are a lot of reasons to support the notion of gathering together in small tribes, clans, or whatever name you want to call the Pandemic Survivors Group. Being a member of a group like this is one of the best ways to improve your family’s chances of survival as well as the chances of all other members of the PSG. I have written extensively on this in the Bird Flu Manual.

In my view, preparing for the pandemic does not mean avoiding the flu. I don’t think that is going to be easy or very likely. Preparing now is a rational act because it will give you, your family, and group the best chance of surviving the flu and the societal chaos that is pretty likely to accompany a severe pandemic.

And for the record, yes I am fully prepared for the pandemic or at least as prepared as a de facto WHO Pandemic Phase 4 condition requires. I have also been stocking medications and medical supplies for use by my PSG’s Neighborhood Health Network when the time comes for that to be activated. I have installed solar collectors on the roof and have reinsulated my house. There is 3-months+ food stockpiled in my basement for my family and I have one of the most impressive selection of LED lanterns and NiMH rechargeable battery collections in Decatur, GA.

There is a big difference in simply surviving the disease and the pandemic and doing so well and intact. Those who prep well have a better chance of surviving well.

Grattan Woodson, MD

The Doctor - 0023 “SIP will not be 100% effective for most small groups. The larger the number of people in your group, the less likely that it will succeed. It simply is counter to human nature.” I totally agree with you on your statement concerning SIP. There are though, some of us down in the desert country, that have no family, just my wife and myself, and we would be able at this time to stay at least 2 years SIP. The worst part for us though, would be getting telephone calls, detailing about what is happening to family about 900 miles away, grand children and children. That for us is our worst nightmare, and one we hope never comes. Just in case if someone did happen to make the 900 mile journey, we have a seperate building, with heat, etc, that we already told our relatives, if they come after the pandemic begins, that they will be isolated there without coming into the house and no phyical contact etc for 2 weeks. Would be hard but we could do that also.

What drew me to the Fluwiki, initially, was not so much the flu (surprise, surprise) but the self reliance tips- the gardening, food preservation etc. Dh and I are doing all we can to be as self sufficent as possible. We give the “Two Toddlers, Two weeks” reason but its something that goes deeper than that.

I agree here with Doctor Woodson-isolation is counter to human nature. We will take precautions-of course. We’ll wash our hands, avoid crowds, kids and I will SIP etc etc, but I still fully expect that one or all of us will come down with this flu. The first flu preps I did was not the beans and rice, but the oral rehydration packets and OTC meds.

I would like to referr you to a study done by U of M Medical School on Provisional Escape Communities.

http://tinyurl.com/hu264

In it they studied seven communities whom had few if any flu cases during the 1918 flu pandemic. They fould that the communities that had fared the best had practiced strict isolation within the community and quarentines when necessary.

So for one reason or another isolation has been effective in the past.

I do agree with the Doctor. We will not be able to escape it. I like the othere on this site am preparing for social disruption. Once it’s here it will be here. It is not just going to disappear. I am hoping that it will lose virulence over time.

I still believe that those left after it’s all said and done will be those who have gained immunity to the virus. Either by surviving it or by being exposed to a weakend virus and unknowingly gaining immunity. Perhaps during the summer when immune systems are strong and viruses are weak. And eventually they will have a vaccine be it in time for the third wave will remain to be seen.

The Doctor; Green Mom at 10:15; and The day after tomorrow at 12:29

Words of wisdom that I agree with. The only way to totally avoid this flu is strict isolation from the time the very first case appears in the USA to the very last case. Impossible from my point of view. We need to use common sense about avoiding crowds, proper and frequent handwashing, etc. etc., pray, and hope for the best! I too am adding things like Depends, bedpans, meds, oral hydration products, broths, etc. to my preps because I don’t think we will be able to avoid infection despite SIP.

I agree with almost everything The Doctor says with one exception. I’m not quite sure how wise it is to form a Pandemic Survival Group outside of my family. Exposure to the virus is one of my main areas of concern. We don’t really know that the CFR will approximate that of the 1918 pandemic. We may have something much, much higher. And I’m not quite sure that being exposed to the first wave will provide immunity to the second wave. Perhaps it will. Perhaps it won’t.

And I’m not really big on the idea of someone claiming “their fair share” of my preps under the guise that they’re “the leader” of the group, doing it on behalf of the community, etc. etc. In fact, I could see some pretty severe acts of desperation emerging when it begins to dawn on some people that the cavalry ain’t comin’ (and who would blame them? But then again, they weren’t really paying attention to the problem like we have been from the beginning, have they?)

I think the community esprit de corps was much higher several decades ago. I’m afraid that “every man for himself” is the motto du jour. And finally, I’d hate to guess wrong. There’s really no backup when you guess wrong in a critical situation such as we’re discussing (and there will be no extra credit that your children can collect because their parents “did the right thing”). No, I hate to seem selfish, but the thought of my children being orphaned at such tender ages really, really would make me stop and think about neighborhood hero anythings due to potential lethal exposure from H5N1.

The comments on this thread give me pause. I see that many of you think you would be better off by isolating yourself. Some think that by SIP you will be able to avoid the flu. Others seem to be considering reverse quarantine especially after the University of Michigan study was released. In my view, these are poor options. Sheltering in place is a public health measure designed to slow the spread of the virus through the community rather than prevent it. It is not possible to prevent it. It is not possible to control or direct it. The U of M study is interesting but not practical to implement today. There are no isolated places today. Implementation of a reverse quarantine is not practicable. People will sneak out and then sneak back in. Others will smuggle in relatives caught on the other side of the wire. Humans are a curious lot and many will be dying to see what’s going on in the next town of city. It will be very unlikely that the 100% discipline required for such a strategy to work can be maintained.

Below is an edited excerpt from The Bird Flu Manual on this issue. Specifically, it addresses why I recommend the formation of Pandemic Survivor Groups rather than prolonged SIP or heading to the wilderness to live in isolation for 2 years.

Grattan Woodson, MD

Excerpted from The Bird Flu Manual

Remaining within any settled area of the planet will mean being exposed to the pandemic influenza strain once it emerges. In my opinion, during the 18-month pandemic period, this will happen no matter what counter measures are employed. Living through a severe pandemic will require us to cope with the gravest medical and social consequences with virtually no outside help. Trying to sustain one’s self and family in isolation under these circumstances will be a difficult task if not impossible.

It is likely that most people will be forced to provide medical care for their sick family members including some who are critically ill, within the home. This would be difficult under normal circumstances and considerably more complex in the event there is a breakdown in the civil and commercial order. For this reason, I have concluded that the most logical choice is to organize your family, friends and neighbors into a mutually supportive Pandemic Survivor Group.

Being a member of a disciplined, well-supplied and organized PSG whose members are committed to the survival of all the other members would provide considerable protection and comfort to a family that was a member. I do not plan to SIP or advocate this practice. It is not normal and if you isolate yourself from those around you, how can you help them if they need you. Being a member of a group that has members who interact to some degree with the outside world means the flu will eventually get in. When it happens, a well schooled and prepared PSG has a very good chance of managing the illness well. This is a rational and reliable approach because its success relies upon you, your family, and friends to make it work.

People gathering for mutual support and protection are nothing new. While it is likely that groups such as this will form wherever humans live, forming a group consciously with preparation and planning will provide the members of a PSG significant survival advantages over those who assemble haphazardly.

I can’t imagine anything more important than having friends and neighbors to rely upon during a long emergency like this one. Being able to depend upon those around you for help will be a tremendous asset for every member of the PSG. A stable, prepared community lessens the likelihood that you or your family will experience problems during the pandemic. Your participation also improves the likelihood of survival for the others in your group.

The mutual aspect does require giving up some autonomy to the group. All groups will need to have a leader and this person will need to be empowered to make decisions that affect members of the PSG differently or in some cases disproportionately. The point of the PSG is the survival of each and every member. Sacrifice will be required and some may be asked to share food or other valuable commodities with others.

Generosity, tolerance, forgiveness, and patience are key survival virtues for PSGs to cultivate. Groups characterized by narcissism, paranoia, rigidity, greed, isolation, and envy will predictably self-destruct. Of course, each group’s structure and form will vary according to its circumstances, a natural and healthy evolution. The groups with the best chance of survival will be those that work cooperatively to enhance the chances of survival of all their members. Sharing, sacrifice, hard work, and devotion to this goal will characterize successful groups.

A PSG of a sufficient size will be able to provide safety for its members by fielding an appropriately equipped and led emergency squad. If law enforcement becomes compromised in your group’s area, you must consider and prepare for the possibility that you could become the target of looters or others seeking to take advantage of the situation. Opportunists and criminals could join together in impromptu gangs in search of food, valuables, guns, and involuntary female companions. Criminals will not hesitate to exploit the vulnerable and those already weakened by illness. History is replete with accounts of raiders taking advantage of just such situations. In my view, having an armed emergency squad to control access to your PSG’s community and patrol its geographic area would be a significant deterrent to attack from the outside. In the event that your PSG was attacked, having it defended by a properly organized, armed and coordinated emergency squad would be a formidable defense force.

A family in isolation would be easy pickings for even a small band of outlaws. Those families will not be secure in the knowledge that if both parents became sick at the same time, there were several other people close by who would come to their aid and care for the children until they were able to resume this responsibility. While a family in isolation can put up a pretty good defense if it has access to the proper equipment and training, this would be a chilling prospect for most of us. There is great comfort in numbers. Humans are gregarious by nature. The thought of SIP in the wild for 2 years away from our loved ones and friends’ strikes me as a very psychologically and painful measure.

BIG TIME Side scroll going on,,,,,,,can a moderator repair,,,thank you

Hear hear! for Dr. Woodson at 23:27

The Doctor – at 23:27 I reckon that my wife and I will be a big test case. No children around within 900 miles, or grandchildren, supplies to last at least 2 years plus, a chain link fence around the property (along with the neighbors that have 6 foot chain link fence also), a water supply from a hand pump from a well…….and just in case is someone does want in,,,a seperatre building. Oh did I mention that the wife already had ask to have graves dug just in case also. Have a tractor with scoop so done that. Actually do not anticipate anyone coming in,,,but I do agree with you in your statements but there is only me and her. I was in the fire service for 26 years, IV tech on the rescue, etc,,,,,and into prepping for a very long time, as taught by parents that went thru the depression. Do not expect “outlaws” out here, as when a home invasion even now happens, the person is usally shot and most all the homes in this part of the desert have firearms. But we have stored provisions, just in case, for neighbors that need help. Fortuneately alot of the neighbors are also into prepping, storing, emergency situations etc. I realize that out here, we are very lucky. Get my stress test tomorrow in Las Vegas so that will be out of the way.

Doctor W.

I live in a NE city, in a mod-low income area. People move in and out, everyone rents, one does not know ones neighbors over time, they move away. Have no family. Have many dear friends who WILL NOT prep despite much effort. I cannot afford to prep for them except for some very basic items. They (rather other adult memebers of their families)do not have the mindset or personal qualities that would make it safe to be in aliance with them.

 I am prepped, but literally have no place to go but stay here alone. I learned over my year on fluwikie that that was not optimal, especially being in city security wise.

Now I am hearing even MORE about how my situation is completely untenable. I am not prepped like GARY because I do not own land or buildings, can’t store fuel (no safe outdoor space, no yard, wooden porch), and of course NO OTHER PERSON. I can’t get seriously sick obviously with no one to care for me (again staying with friend due to her crazy husband who would behave dangerously)will be worse.

So, I would like peoples advice,particularly from Dr.. Woodson. I am sure there are others out there who do not live in close knit communities or have family. What do we DO??

don’t mean to sound like I have an attitude. I just keep hearing about how you need to gather your friends family neighbors around and I cannot do this., No one I am close to will prep at all.

I ordered the book, just don’ think I can …don’t see a way HOW I can, follow thru on the MAIN recommendation that might save my life. I am kind of worried.

While it’s been slow in coming, I think more and more of us are realizing that Dr. Woodson is right about the futility of avoiding exposure to the virus for 12 to 18 months. Not that it isn’t possible, but the odds are badly against it.

Few of us could create and maintain a bio-secure environment capable of sustaining us for a year or longer, and there will always be unexpected events, which will lead to a breaking of security.

Although many will find this idea disconcerting, I personally find it liberating. It means that I don’t have to consider living in lockdown, like a prisoner in my own home for a year or longer. Just as importantly, it means I can help my neighbors, and neighborhood, because I’m going to be exposed one way or another.

The WHO’s announcement yesterday, that it will take 3 to 5 years to come up with enough vaccine, further demonstrates the futility of trying to isolate. The H5N1 virus will likely become a component of seasonal flu, long after the pandemic passes, just as H1N1 did after the Spanish Flu. Eventually even the most hardcore isolationist will have to come out, and when they do, the virus will still be around, and they won’t have immunity.

Some things simply aren’t doable. And avoiding exposure is one of them.

Prepping, of course, still makes sense. As does limiting exposure where you can. There are unanswered questions about viral load, and what it really takes to become infected. The use of masks, gloves, and hand washing still make sense.

Having 3 to 6 months worth of supplies on hand, LED lighting, medicines, solar panels or a generator, and other assets will allow us the latitude to decide when and where we expose ourselves. It means we won’t have to stand in line for 6 hours a day for a loaf of bread along with hundreds of potentially infected people. And it means we can use our time to help our neighborhoods, instead.

For every complex problem there is a simple and elegant solution. And it is invariably wrong.

I think trying to avoid exposure at all costs falls under that category. JMHO.

As I am currently nursing a sore throat and bad cough, I am in full agreement. I have become much more cautious and dilligent about handwashing, etc. since I strated prepping several months ago. Yet, here I am, miserable. I have no idea where I got it - no one in my family is ill. SIP will greatly reduce one’s risk, but not reduce it to zero. If this stretches out to months on end, it will be impossible to avoid going out for supplies, etc. Few of us are like Gary - complete isolation is not an option. The best I can do is prep the best I can, try and get others around me to prep (which, btw is not working :(), and take it from there.

FLA_MEDIC at 4:50: “The WHO’s announcement yesterday, that it will take 3 to 5 years to come up with enough vaccine, further demonstrates the futility of trying to isolate.”

Well, I don’t mean to sound cold, but I don’t think we’d have to worry about as large a number to vaccinate after the pandemic is in full swing.

People seem to be forgetting about certain cities that either escaped or had a “light” case of H1N1 during 1918 (St. Louis, certain cities in northern Colorado, etc.). Many of these folks escaped partly due to the fact that they remained in quarantine. Along those lines, when some sick family was in need of food, they would fly a white flag in front of their house, and neighbors would leave food on their doorstep. The sick families would do that so as not to infect their neighbors, I’m assuming. And as I’ve said before on numerous occasions, I would do the same for my neighbors. But that is not the same as ringing their doorbell and giving them a great, big hug.

Sorry, but I think some folks are looking at solving this like they did on Gilligan’s Island. Put me down as someone who just wouldn’t trust the Skipper and his Little Buddy.

 I also would not submit my family and our preps to a community leader.  That will not happen.

I still have not come to terms with the SIP problem. I could not do it either for 1–2 years, but could do it for 8 weeks or until the first wave is over. But then would be unemployed.

Then what? If we are going to be exposed anyway no matter what we do, and it is useless to SIP, then why attempt it.

I agree on prepping to be sure we have meds and ability to feed and take care of our family and avoid the chaos.

Didn’t I read that many in the 1918 flu were isolated and did not get it?

Really confused on this. Why bother SIP or even buy masks? Just go to the airport and stand there and get it over? Then hope you live thru it or even lucky enough to have the natural immunity 40% will have. I am not defeatest or depressed about it, just trying to determine the best course of action.

I think it absolutely makes sense to prep but also agree that it is most likely futile to avoid exposure. I hope to be able to have some control over when I get it. For example if my wife who is a physician gets it I will start taking tamiflu and wear masks, gloves, etc while caring for her in hopes that she is recovered and able to take care of me and our kids by the time I get sick.

I strongly disagree with the idea of quarantining family members that come for help. Although it does sound like a good way to prevent personal exposure I would never do it. Lets assume that they were exposed on their journey to your house and are now sick. Can you imagine the guilt you would feel if a loved one did develop AI while in your quarantine area and died of something like dehydration. Many AI deaths will be preventable by the kind of treatment Dr. Woodson describes in detail in his book. I would rather risk exposure my self and accept the small chance of my dying than know I probably could have saved a friend or family member but did not.

It seems to me that if you get a severe case of AI and have no one to help care for you your chance of dying is much higher than if you have friends and family too help you while you are sick. I want to take care of my friends and family the best I can so they will be there for me and or my kids when I am sick. I think helping each other is the best way for most of us to survive.

“Then hope you live thru it or even lucky enough to have the natural immunity 40% will have.”

NJ Jeeper. The danger with a pandemic virus is that no immune system in the world, has encountered it before…

…In the case of many viral diseases (smallpox), between 5–15% of populations will avoid infection…this statistic holds in animal models (distemper) as well.

The thing about H1N1 is that the pandemic of 1918 has really, in a sense, continued for a century…it is still dominating influenza today…

…Therefore, in the initial pandemic, there may be a 65% infection rate but the other 35% will eventually get it in the after-shocks that will cause localized epidemics for years or decades after the initial pandemic.

The strategy of getting sick early can backfire on you…the longer you can hold off getting infected, in general, the less virulent the virus will become…so all reasonable attempts to avoid infection are well worth it.

For some, our “friends and family” will not go look into it and prep

-there’s some nice spin out there to believe instead

(from people in positions of authority who have decided my fellow citizens and taxpayers and friends and family are acceptable losses compared to alarming the economy/governed early)

that says, they don’t have to do anything much (during a pre-pandemic alert period).

I cannot prep for everyone; so far, they won’t be there for me and mine, and chancing dying is not acceptable, so, I am on my own .

Going out to just “get it over” with, given the current unprepared community, and, high fatality rate -even higher with no critical care and meds, is not a viable option, for some of us.

FLA MEDIC at 4:50 mentioned viral load. While there always will be unanswered questions about viral replication rate because they can mutate/reassort/or recombine as time passes, it stands to reason that any effort to limit viral load exposure would be of benefit to people. Especially as Tom DVM mentioned, early in a pandemic. Being exposed to virus need not necessarily be an all-or-nothing situation. A small exposure, especially later in a pandemic, might limit the extent of the illness, and yet allow creation of antibodies for some future protection. I believe there are many things we can do to tip the balance in our favor!

If the local PTB decide that by having people stay home as much as possible the social and viral situation would be improved, they you had better be prepared to stay home! In some area going out may get you arrested. Like I tell the classes that I teach on panflu, you cannot stay home unless you have the resources to do so.

I would put my son , who would be coming up from Phoenix,in quarantine. If he gets sick I put on gown, mask and gloves and care for him, like I would any patient. He would not die from dehydration or lack of care. If I ran out of supplies I would still care for him, but I would not expose other menbers of my family.

This is not rocket science; we have been dealing with infectious diseases for a long time. Do not let your fear rule your planning. Kelly

So it appears we should: prepare have food and water and medical supplies available to us to care for our family preare for possible utility interuptions,

prepare to have in home care for flu victims,

limit our exposure to the outside world, by limiting our excursions to get supplies,

limit our exposure at work as much as possible by distancing, masks (maybe), wash hands, and keep sick people home.

I think I have a plan now

I would love to be in a neighborhood of preppers that would work together, help each other, different skills, divide the work, safety in numbers etc. (And arguments over fair share, how disagreements are to be resolved, whether rules have to be obeyed and what happens if they aren’t when it’s MY kid who sneaked out to be with her boyfriend or to “go scavenging” against the SIP rules.)

But one side and behind me are several houses of renters with little kids and big dogs and apparently no money. They are not prepping.

One side is a family who give the kids whatever they want - “you ate a bit of the apple and don’t want it? that’s fine, honey, you can open the jar of applesauce I was saving for tomorrow. You tasted it and don’t want it so you dumped it out? Fine, honey, you can open the peaches.” No sense of discipline. She asked if I have toothpicks when she was pumpkin carving with the kids, I brought over the box, she dumped the entire contents on the ground, to take the few she wanted and throw the rest away. 6 months of preps for her family wouldn’t last a month, because if the kids wanted to play with the rice by scattering it in the ground, thats fine they’re happy.

Across the street are several houses of little old lady and retired couples who aren’t prepping; shrug their shoulders, if they die, they die.

I feel vulnerable being alone, but I can’t see prepping for, let me count, the 39 people in the houses immediately surrounding me, not counting boyfriends, grandkids, etc. If we absolutely knew it was coming and when so I wouldn’t have the expense of hauling it off to the food bank and rebuying, maybe yes, but I’d gave to take out a loan, especially if were talking about a dozen households of radios and lighting and batteries and thousands of dollars of tamiflu in addition to beans and rice and lard.

A prepping community has to be a community of people who are all (or almost all) prepping (the few holdouts having needed skills, or being incompetent). It doesn’t work if the idea is one person creates a future community by doing all the work and absorbing all the cost while the rest assume a right to a free ride. Better to not let them know you have any preps and keep your head down if it comes.

If I get sick, I die. Actually, that’s true now. If I fall in a bathtub and hit my head, or get too sick to remember to dial 911, they’ll find the dead body a month or two later, I guess.

jplanner at 3:45: I have a lot of sympathy for you because I’ve been in your exact situation for most of my life. You’re used to taking care of yourself, because there isn’t anybody else, and if you get sick, you will be very sick with no help. That’s scary.

The only thing I can recommend is keep a lot of food, water, rubber gloves, masks, first aid stuff, etc., and try to limit your exposure to other people.

Regarding being in a not so good area, with low security, I remember years ago I lived in a very bad neighborhood. When I moved out, a neighbor commmented to me that she never knew when I was home because I was so quiet. If you live alone, being quiet, keeping the drapes drawn so people don’t know when you’re home, and not calling attention to yourself can be a plus. I did a lot of traveling to downtown LA and other bad neighborhoods alone, took the bus at night, etc, and I found that wearing dark, dull, shapeless clothes, dark glasses and no makeup made people ignore me, which is a good thing when you’re stuck in a bad place waiting for a bus.

You should probably consider blackout curtains, so if TSHTF, you can light up without neighbors knowing you’re home. They may assume you left to “be with family.” If you don’t know your neighbors and there’s a lot of turnover, is the landlord ok? Any coworkers you would trust to have a buddy system with? If not, consider joining a class/church group/charity volunteer work and trying to make some friends there.

Regarding fuel, I’m in the same boat. No safe place to store fuel except inside. I suggest you plan food preps for no cooking, and stock up on candles and matches. Someone suggested on another thread that candle lamps might be usable for simple warmup cooking - I’d like to find out more about that. Other possibilties, fondue pot for heat ups, or maybe a chafing dish.

There’s a way for you to make yourself safer and better prepared too - there’s just a lot of thought that has to be put into it.

“If the local PTB decide that by having people stay home as much as possible the social and viral situation would be improved, they you had better be prepared to stay home! In some area going out may get you arrested.”

I was in Washington DC after Martin Luther King was killed, the city was under curfew. The troops I chatted with said anyone out after 4 PM would be shot.

I wondered how people handled it. Stores had to close on time so workers could get home. My hotel had no restaurant. Not fun.

If they tell you to stay home and they mean it, you stay home, even if you are hungry.

I sometimes think I’m crazy as hell for believing I will go to a hospital to work. It doesn’t make sense to a rational peson. I have no clue how I will react if my co-workers drop dead within my peripheral vision, I have no experience with it.

But, I do have my family experiences which tell me if I survive hospital duty, I will work in my community. People in third world countries usually eat one meal a day, after they have worked all day for pennies to buy food with. You can share your preps as long as you understand you’re giving up three squares and snacks most of you have put away. Keep your vitamins and Ensure if it makes you feel better. Spending thousands on personal preps serves to isolate and make you paranoid. If you only eat one meal a day how long will those preps last?

So you don’t like my last sentence. What if your wife got sick and I had the skills and the medicine to help her. How would you feel if I said to you, “Joe you wouldn’t share food, so why should I help you?” If you’re a fortress fine. If you think reading about medical care is enough to save her, fine. You will find out your plan is no plan at all. Suffering is the great equalizer.

Wow, Leo7 you on the rant today. Kelly

While I am limited in my own means, I live in an area, surrounded by the very affluent. Yesterday I passed by a new shop in the next town. A grand opening for windows, kitchens and flooring. I stepped inside. Was a bit ill at ease, as I was dressed very casualy.. A dozen tall men in Brooks Brothers suits, looking like models in a magazine spread. A dressed to kill young woman as greeter. I asked if it was by invitations only. No, they had asked all the local architects.,but I was welcome. Hugh platters of crudities. I took a taste of artichoke dip and left, telling the greeter that I would return sometime in the future. I am curious, I’m going to ask if people are building in any safeguards, like solar or altenate heating. We have golf courses every few miles, enormous mansions. I wonder how these mansions will be heated. They obviously have the money to do anything and everything in the way of prepping, but they don’t appear to be doing anything but conspicuous consumption. Considering what is happening in the world as far as resources what I see seems out of touch. My own little town is more middle class in the main, with the important masters of the universe of the past owning hugh spreads which have been broken up. Englehard,”Goldfinger” for ex. In the towns around mine these newly rich have lavish immense homes on small acerage. This has been happening in the last 5 years, and nothing seems to be stopping the trend. Size zero , attractive women groomed and trendy, beautiful very indulged children… At least the women must not eat very much.. A few lettuce leaves perhaps. I wonder what will happen to these well educated and seemingly prosperous adults if reality bites them in the a.. if we do get a pandemic. I enjoy looking at these showcases, but wonder what posseses people to go to these extremes of consumption.I am going to amass a ton of brochures. Basicaly its keeping up with your set.I hope with all the networking that goes on they have some backup.They are also used to getting their own way in everything. Not my world anymore, never really was. Just an observer. The money being thrown into houses is enormous.I wonder if they will make things happen if there is a pandemic, or if they will be helpless. Is having it all, really having it all?

“At least the women must not eat very much…A few lettuce leaves perhaps.”

LOL! Diana…I think you’ve hit on a new type of prepping…”size O preps!” Just have a few bags of lettuce, some water and lemon, and you’re set for a month! LOL!

NP1:

I know, I’m suppossed to be writing a paper. Boring. I’m not in an isolated area. But we don’t need three squares a day in an emergency situation we all believe in. I was down in Mexico digging ditches for treated water supply and flies as big as chicken eggs were eating chunks of my flesh, and I thought what am I doing here, it was so miserable. About that time a little girl about seven or eight showed up with a water bucket and a dipper. She was shy and she wanted to show appreciation for the labor. Anyway that was the best water I’ve ever had. I still take from the common cup when I go to church. I can hear a fluwicki gasp…Somehow we’ve escaped our basic humanity which is to share with others just because we can. And no…it’s not a religious paper I’m writing, but sometimes it seems like people have just lost that loving feeling.

Leo7: Yea, we humans have lived, loved and died together since we became human. We here in the US think that a bath a day MUST be the norm. What a joke. We have lost sight of what we really need to live. As a young, scared army medic I was up to my elbows in blood more than once. Gloves? Only for sterile procedures, if we had them.

I do not miminize the dangerousness of a panflu. I am an insulin dependent diabetic. It may kill me. I have seen people die beside me and know in my gut it will be me someday. We need to do our best to help others because what the hell in life else there? Toys? Money? This is what I realized when I decided to become a nurse so many years ago. Kelly

Well… i do not plan on exposing my kids ages 13, 14 and 20 to the virus. I will protect them from it at any cost.

They represent the highest infected age and the highest CFR. I would be insane to chance them getting infected.

Goju at 17:10: I agree. I suspect those who think they’ll do more for their fellow man will probably change their minds when they see people gasping for breath and then dying a horrible death, drowning in their own bodily fluids. I’ll bet it will make casualties of the Korean war look mighty good by comparison. All of this talk reminds me of a spoof on a Peanuts cartoon I once saw. The caption said something to the effect, “Watch Lucy, Snoopy, Charlie Brown and the gang rebuild their town after a nuclear explosion, and have fun doing it!” Right.

Lehman’s has a lantern with a heater top — very cute. You’d need good ventilation though — You can also heat lots of things on a small camp stove — I prefer white gas to propane because a can of white gas goes a long way while the slender propane tubes don’t last that long (IMHO).

I think there are some ways to finesse the “share or don’t share” challenge. We have a lot of lentils and rice — neither are expensive but it’s not steak and cavier (the combination does provide complete amino acids though) — so I’m plannng to share lentils and rice. I’m hoping that cheerfully sharing a bland food will a) make us appreciated b) make people look elsewhere for more. A lot of the world subsists on lentils and rice — so I truly feel we would be doing a good thing — but not at the expense of our bank account or our own survival.

I also bought a bunch of small bottles of ibuprofen when they were on sale and a big box of sour apple lollipops for $5.85. Those are also in my “share” section.

Hi!

Thank you Dr. Woodson, for all you have done for us!

However, for my family…I just can’t imagine how forming one of these groups would work. In fact, I’ve been reading the same complaints from most of us…Who else is prepping? No one I know…Just about nothing. In comparison, I would say I am super prepping! To be honest…I know it’s selfish…But I’m not doing this to be the neighborhood food bank, the local med unit. I have done everythig I can possibly think of, taken every single $$ I could get my hands on, and used every breath of energy I can find…To prep for MY family. I don’t plan to hand it out. I do take things to an elderly neighbor, hoping it will give her extra..I’ve treied to encourage friend to prep…BUT nog takers!

To organize a group, that you could even put faith in, would take a lot of time. You would have to live in close proximity and have a common goal. There would have to be a fair distribution of supplies or someone isn’t going to be happy. Suppose you have meds for your family and someone else’s family member gets sick…Would you hand the meds over? I won’t! My children’s lives aren’t negotiable…They aren’t my lives to negotiate with. I have canned close to 1000 jars of food, canned until I literally could drop…I’m not giving it away. I have dropped off meat and fruits, for friends to can..BUT…. I have offered to help others can, even strangers…My grown kids are getting canned goods for Christmas, but the rest are for my flock at home. I don’t think people will get scared and want to plan for anything, until it is too late. To form a group then, just won’t work. It will be too late. People will look for us super preppers to join THEIR clans and I don’t think many of us are going to be open to being the neighborhood food bank.

I know that the infection can come home. That’s why I don’t think hygeine will work. You just can’t control the rest of the world. I can’t control my mentally ill little boys, who are super spreaders of just about everything. I am preparing to take care of my chicks if they get the flu, but I’m fairly certain, I won’t be able to save them. I will do everything possible to just SIP. I can’t quarantee it will work…There are no guarantees. I just don’t want to form a clan, belong to one…I already have my own clan. If we can’t get anyone’s attention now, then some of us would be taken advantage of and I’m not going to allow that to happen.

Hi Mom11, hope you are well! I think you pretty much pegged it - we are all in the same boat. Don’t have unlimited funds or storage space, do have relatives, friends and neighbors with no sense of self-preservation, let alone urgency to prep. I appreciate having the knowledgable, funny people on this site to relate to - they are all great. Sure wish some of them lived next door though.

LA Escapee, I agree with you about wishing some of the good folks here lived next door. Have tried to talk to some of my neighbors, gave two of them copies of Grattan’s small first book on Preparation, one may possibly be doing something, the other basically does not want to hear anything about it. Have a couple of care packages to give out, but will not short myself and lessen my chance of survival for people outside my family who scoff at the knowledge we have accumulated here on the fluwikie. Off topic LAEscapee, another case of Aladdin oil came, will burn it in the lamp and also in my regular lantern, no noticable smell or smoke. Thanks again for all the tips.

I’ve decided not to prepare. Waste of time really especially in NJ. I have some disaster supplies and a pantry. Beyond that living in NJ with it’s pop. density all but assures that everyone here will get infected anyway. I have some Tamiflu scripts I need to fill and that’s all the prep I’m going to do.

 anonymous at 21:34

 Why do you say a waste of time?

 Save money for rent and bills(as much as you can) then you won’t have to work and why would you have to venture ouside and get it?

 Please tell me why it would be a waste of time-we would all like to know…

We are an interdependent species and always have been. This has been our secret of success and why we have come to dominate the planet. The thought that we can isolate ourselves from others for months or years without contact is not credible. Our best hope lies in coming together with others for mutual support and protection. Living in isolation virtually anywhere runs the risk of being picked off by roving bands of homicidal hunters. They will be attracted by the smell of your wood smoke or see your light at night.

Facing an emergency like this is not something any of us has every considered before. The rules that govern behavior of our civilized society will no longer apply. Those of the jungle will prevail. This is not a new condition for our species. For most of the time that we have been extant here these jungle conditions have been the norm. It has only been very recently that we have enjoyed the protection and liberty provided by the rule of law. These artifacts of civilization will peal away during the pandemic. Our civilization will regress until a new equilibrium is reached. This regression will be characterized initially by anarchy out of which a new level of cultural organization will emerge. It is very likely that this will be followed by a rapid recovery to higher and higher states of organization and interdependence as we put our society back together again. The problem is how do we cope with the relatively brief period of chaos and anarchy?

In my opinion, the social structure that provides a good defense against the type of threats human and otherwise, likely to be encountered during the pandemic and anarchy is one modeled on the small village. In the village there is a division of labor between food gatherers, hunters, childcare, medical care, leadership, and village defense. All human cultures present today spent thousands of years living in this type of structure. You could say it is “in our bones” although we have no memory of living life this way, the ancestors of each and every one of us did for thousands of years. This social structure is the jumping off point for higher civilization.

The village structure gave birth to many of our most cherished cultural values including family, loyalty, and trust. It is where mutual support and interdependence first took root. These values above all others are the ones that will provide each and every one of us with an improved chance of survival during the emergency. The idea that you can cope with an emergency on the scale of pandemic influenza on your own and in isolation is a strategy that is much less survivable.

A Pandemic Survivors Group is nothing more that a small village. There will be a division of labor and within the community. The PSG will include children, adults and the elderly. The community must have a critical mass of individuals, talents, and supplies to be self-sufficient. This requires planning ahead, what we call preparing. The PSG has the strength of numbers to withstand the forces of anarchy, which by definition are poorly organized. Most PSG will not be isolated from other spontaneously forming groups nearby. They are likely to trade and hopefully assist each other, even come to the aid of their neighboring groups when needed.

Some of you complain that you are the only one prepping near you or that you live in an unsafe area that is rather lawless even ante-pandemic. Others say they are not about to share with the their neighbors given the sacrifice they made to get prepared. These feeling must be pretty common among those of us who have the honor being in the pandemic preparation vanguard. While it is understandable why we feel this way, it is self-defeating to persist in this frame of mind. We are going to need the help of those around us to form a PSG in order to survive during the pandemic. People like you who have taken the imitative and learned how to prepare are the seeds of these PSGs wherever you live. As the pandemic approaches, more and more people will realize that there is a serious problem just as we have. Our task will be to help them get organized as they come to the realization that while it is not possible to avoid or escape this event, it is something that can be prepared for and doing so will improve ones chances of surviving the event. Doing so is not an act of altruism. You need their help as much as they need yours. It is really not hard to see that after individual preparation of a single family, the next step in social organization is the gathering together of several dozen families into a PSG. Where the isolated family may be prepared, it would be weak and unable to resist attack by marauders or if more than one or two of its members became seriously ill simultaneously. The PSG by comparison would be strong and able to repeal the attack of villains as well as provide the needed care to the ill. The PSG structure allows for a division or labor to occur that will improve the work efficiency of the group, giving each member a higher standard of living. These are the reasons why our ancestors formed villages in the first place many thousands of years ago and it is why we will do it again soon.

The notion of ownership within a mutually dependent group is very different than it is today in our current civilization. Because your survival depends more or less on the survival of the other members of the group, private property is of limited utility and might apply only to a few personal items only, like clothes and jewelry. When the village was the norm, individuals didn’t own the land or even the huts where they lived. The village was in possession of these assets and held them for the benefit of all. People like the Native Americans for instance, would never be so presumptuous to assume that anyone could own the land.

While we have different ideas today, during the pandemic while living within a PSG, we would be well advised to hearken back to these views about ownership and mutual interdependence. In this regard, the food, medicine, clothing and other survival supplies we have stored for the emergency would be willingly shared with another member of the group in need of help. This is the essence of mutuality. This occurs not under duress but is willingly given in the knowledge that the strength of the group is dependent upon the survival of each member. The individual sees himself or herself as a part of a whole rather than as a separate individual. A member of this community that shared food or medicine with a neighbor in need would think no more of it than the right hand thinks about washing the dirt off the left.

While this way of living may strike some as strange by today’s standards, they represent the ethics of our ancestors and are at the core of our survival and success as a species. It was these values that gave us the strength to withstand past visits by the Four Horseman.

Modernity has brought us many gifts for which we have paid a great price. The civilization Modernity wrought looks unassailable and all-powerful to the casual observer. In truth, it is a house of cards lacking a moral foundation. In the end, this will be its doom. It is not surprising to read the selfish views of some expressed on this thread since this is the one that characterizes our present time. What is interesting is it is clear from these same peoples words that in their hearts they care deeply for their friends and families. Reflecting upon my own experience of these emotions, it occurs to me that while many of us have begun to come to terms with the pandemic, our thinking remains stuck in the values of the current culture. My point is that these values of Modernity will serve you poorly under the circumstances prevailing during the pandemic. What will be needed is to assume an old set of values that were honored by the ancients; like the ones discussed above.

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

Hi LA!

Wish you were here!

I guess this entire thread has been on my mind, for a few days. Don’t know why it upsets me. I think most of my friends, would think of me as generous, at least I hope so.

However, I know that it is selfish to “hoard” food, when there are those that need it….BUT…I selfishly don’t want to lose my children! I want them to grow up and live their lives. It is their right, that I protect them with all my might! I already have a clear understanding of what it is like to lose a child. It is very real to me!

I have worked so hard, for a long time, to prepare for an emergency. I’ve done some nutty things! #9 and I chopped our way through brush and thistles last winter, to clear an abandoned well, so we can have water. I chiseled a 1/3 acre garden with a hoe and garden rake and sick with all kinds of lung and kidney stuff. I’ve canned many mornings, until 1,2, 3, 4 am….I’ve lugged home, certainly at least 50 bushels of produce to can and canned what I grew in my garden. I spent days in the wild blackberry bushes and days in the apple orchard. Two weeks ago, I canned almost 200lbs. of meat, in 2 days. I have a side of beef coming next week, to also can. I’ve used every trick in the book to find the money to do all this….

I’m just not giving it up. If no one else is interested in this issue, how are clans to be formed, without us just sacrificng our own? Why is it any different during a pandemic, then now? People need our preps now. How about those, that have taken nice vacations, bought luxury items, and not prepped? We will be seen as selfish? But, I feel we all make choices and must live with them. Even if we share our preps, what real good would that do? A fully prepped family, would be wiped out, almost overnight, by even a few unprepped families. What about meds? Are those with diabetes, supposed to split their insulin, with unprepped diabetics? What good would that do? Probably end up with two fatalities. What about heart meds? Would my boys psy. meds. do anyone any good, if I shared them…I really don’t want to find out!

I’ve done just about every stupid thing, I could think of to protect my chicks. I took part in a vaccine trial, with the small hope that we would get a safe vaccine, for our babies…I’ve made many 150 mile trips to do this, with my flock yelling and screaming all the way down the road….I am sick, tired, just worn out….AND I’m not sharing, once the door slams shut….A clan? With us as the food bank, neighborhood urgent care? I don’t think so! I think this is a great idea, but I just don’t understand how it will work? Not in my world! Bird Flu? That thing way over there?…This was from a registered nurse, working in a major medical center!

I am reminded of a story I heard when I was a child:

THERE IS AN OLD FABLE THAT TELLS OF THE EVENTS surrounding a certain Mother Hen who lived on a farm . . .

Now, Mother Hen wished to bake a cake for all the farm animals to enjoy, and being rather an astute and equitable fowl, she decided to appeal for some help in its preparation.

So she first approached Ermitrude the cow with her invitation to help, but, somewhat irritated, Ermitrude replied, “Moo! Can you not see that I am presently engaged in chomping this wonderfully lush green grass, garnished with daisies? I could not possibly risk forsaking this happy opportunity to dine just to help you make a cake.”

Undaunted, Mother Hen soon afterwards espied Ferdinand the fox, eying her surreptitiously from behind a tree. She decided that discretion might be the better part of valour, and greeted him courteously yet vigilantly with her most reasonable request. Ferdinand responded in a rather contemplative and cool manner, “Hmmm,” he mused. “If I help you to make a cake, then I shall have much less time to hunt for my vixen and cubs; a very demanding responsibility, of course, and one that requires much forward planning, careful rumination and adequate reflection. No, I need all my time, Mother Hen, and care not to waste any of it in pursuing mere trifles. However, there was something else I wanted to speak with you about . . . !”

Somewhat discomposed, Mother Hen ventured hastily forth from her rather apprehensive encounter with Ferdinand the fox, and presently encountered Derek, the farm’s guard-dog, basking in the sun. “Hello Derek!” she clucked. “Will you help me make a cake for us all to eat for dinner tonight?”

Derek lazily managed to lift one eyelid, growled in lethargic disapproval at being disturbed, and proceeded to shift himself into a more comfortable position where he resumed his restful duty . . . .

The fable continues similarly and at length (as most fables are wont to do) as Mother Hen continues upon her righteous quest around the farmyard, attempting diligently to muster some assistance in order to make her cake. She meets with like excuses and unhelpful responses from Selena the sow, Herbert the horse and indeed all the other farmyard animals whom she politely entreats, including the inhabitants of her very own chicken coop, who all seemed far more interested in pecking at the ground than in baking a cake.

Rather flustered and in less than fine feather, Mother Hen is circumstantially compelled to toil alone for the rest of that day. However, the prize for her tenacious labours is splendid indeed, and a great big mouth-watering cake is born by dinner time at six o’ clock.

Now, Mother Hen was certainly not a resentful or spiteful bird in any way, but she felt that it was her duty to teach the farm animals an important lesson. So she triumphantly took up the freshly baked, aromatic cake and wandered around the farmyard trumpeting proudly about her great achievement, and asking of everyone, “Now, who will help me eat this wonderfully tasty cake that I have baked all alone?”

With the greatest zeal, ALL the animals in the farmyard volunteered to assist Mother Hen in this most appealing task, but with a curt flutter of her wings, a dismissing wave of her rear feathers, and evincing a rehearsed air of indignation, she raked the ground beneath her feet and casually retorted, “I sounded the call, but no one came forth. Thus, since none of you have offered to help me create this most appetising delicacy, then none of you are eligible to help me eat it either!”

Mother Hen proceeded that fair evening to enjoy a great feast, together with all her chicks.

I’d suggest that each of you who have broached the subject of preparation with others only to be ignored print multiple copies of this story and pass it around. Before TSHTF.

The Doctor at 22:46: Dr. Grattan, while I deeply respect your input and concern on medical issues, there is no way for you to know what path will be the best one to take for families to survive, based on the fact that we don’t know yet what the landscape will look like.

You assume a CFR somewhere between 2% and 8%. What if it is much higher than that? What if our points of sale and distribution systems shut down for longer than 3 months? What then? How long do you really think our meager yet efficient stockpiles will last for just our families alone? The point is, your suggestions may work under one scenario, but they certainly cannot work under all scenarios. In other words, I feel a plan must be more fluid, more flexible.

You mention that it is within man’s nature to band together in the face of calamity, and that each member of the group will add his or her skill to the common good. That may work for other parts of the world, but will it really work in most of the developed countries? It seems aside from just-in-time deliveries, we are also a vulnerable society in that many of the old useful skills and arts have been greatly diminished, if not extinguished. Look at the medical profession for example. How many doctors make house calls today? How many could go back to making house calls if they wanted to? Put another way, how many doctors are so specialized in what they do that they can no longer provide an adequate level of patient care regardless of the cause of illness? I would submit to you that not many could. How many blacksmiths do you know? How many people know how to make their own clothes, let alone wash them without a washing machine? Take a good, hard look around you. Most of your neighbors are accountants, administrators, yes, even lawyers. I don’t mean to disparage these groups, especially since I’m in one of them, but how many of these folks have useful skill sets in a pandemic setting?

The Romans used to say, “never judge a man’s life until you see the way he dies.” It’s obvious that we are all going to die someday. However, I surely don’t want to die the way I have read about in John Barry’s book. I don’t want my family to go out that way, either. I’m pretty sure everyone feels the same way. That means that when faced with that kind of horrible death, most folks would do anything they could to protect themselves and their families from it, at all costs. If another family knew what kind of medicines you had, and they feared they were afflicted or about to become afflicted with bird flu, do you really think they would defer to the greater good of the community? The same goes with food and starving to death. Neither picture is very pretty, and the Romans would probably agree that a man, woman or child who suffered that kind of death “did not live a good life.”

Furthermore, I don’t believe anyone would stop and think what the legal ramifications would be if they or their family was subjected to loss of life or limb due to anarchy. Historically, there have been common law defenses to an otherwise criminal act where the person found himself or herself in such a situation. A look at the definition to “necessity” under Black’s Law Dictionary reads:

A person is excused from criminal liability if he acts under a duress of circumstances to protect life or limb or health in a reasonable manner and with no other acceptable choice.

I would think if a man’s life were threatened by his neighbors, he would not be contemplating whether he should protect himself or not due to what the law may or may not do to him afterward. Remember, it is better to be judged by twelve than be carried by six. And if he is in the position of being judged by twelve, remember, those twelve would have managed to survive the pandemic somehow. I think those prospective jurors would be more or less sympathetic with their fellow survivors.

By your most recent comments (above), you seem to be arguing almost the opposite point of view, or “Necessitas publica major est quam privata” (Public necessity is greater than the private). But isn’t this the same kind of argument that doctors are now using in order to deny requests for Tamiflu scripts? Aren’t they saying, in effect, “I can’t take care of you, an individual (even though you are my patient), when we might need these scarce resources in the event of a pandemic.”? Or are you saying that the synergistic benefits of belonging to the group would outweigh each lone individual’s achievements? But I don’t believe that for my reasons stated above. Moreover, I just don’t see the group reward is worth the risk in an infectious disease situation.

Although I can’t readily agree with your suggestions on the PSG, they are thought-provoking. Moreover, it is conceivable that a situation would arise where a PSG would be preferable (low infection rate, low CFR, etc.) I appreciate your taking the time to further explain your position.

To The Doctor

What a wonderful inspiring posting, but as nice as some of my neighbors are, they don’t have, nor do they want to acquire, a clue for the most part. Wish that my physician felt as you do about helping his patients, but even after I gave him copies of your Preparedness guide and reasons for giving Tamiflu out he did not respond, ever. When I returned recently and told him I had procured same through online sources he thought that was a prudent thing to do on my part! Sad as it is as a commentary on the majority of people out there, I am afraid I have to agree with De jure. This does not mean that I will not continue to try to inform and help some others, but it is a losing battle.

By the way, today received the Mayo Clinic newsletter which included an excellent 8 page Special Report on Pandemic Flu. Will try to get more copies for those whom I still hope to inform.. Doctor, keep up your wonderful work. Still waiting for your new book to arrive, look forward to reading it.

“living in NJ with it’s pop. density all but assures that everyone here will get infected anyway. I have some Tamiflu scripts I need to fill and that’s all the prep I’m going to do.”

When I was sick with a bad flu-like thing, I sure was glad I had a month of canned foods on hand, because that’s what I ate. Occasionally a friend brought me a meal - one meal. Or a friend would ask what groceries I wanted and would bring some (not all) of them to me, three days later, not that same day.

I learned the value of being prepped for bad stuff to happen, of which bird flu is only one possibility.

Hi De Jure!

Whewww! Glad you wrote…I figured the next time I looked here, I would read lots of people yelling at me, about how selfish I am…I know in some respects I am…BUT…My only motivation for all this prepping are my chicks….

I’ve thought of every scenario and I can’t imagine it working for my family. First, we are almost talking about communes and I think they went out of favor, long ago. I can assure myself of this, I am the ONLY one prepping, maybe in this entire town. If I can get to a year of preps and then share them with the 24 families, in the houses down the road…That means maybe 2 weeks of food for all. What good is that going to do? I honestly wouldn’t be doing this, for my neighbors. I am worn out and if I didn’t percieve a threat to my chicks, I would dang sure be doing something else besides picking apples in the rain, canning until the wee hours of the morning, chiseling a rock hard garden in 100 degree heat, and chopping through thorns to find an old well! That doesn’t even include the $$$$, which has been borrowed form my husband’s retirement account, charged, and every other $$ I could squeeze out and then I should hand it over for the common good??? Who would help me pay it back? Not my neighbors! I only know the names of 2 of my neighbors and I am helping one of them, by dropping off food etc., when I can. The rest wouldn’t bring any food here.

What about the $$$$$ in meds., I’ve bought. Do you think, another parent with a sick child wouldn’t tear through every bone in my body to have them…Then where do my children come in…Sacrificial lambs? No! I can’t do this? I just can’t…I just won’t! However the threat, that thisthread brings up…That aggressive action may be taken by poeple to acquire what I have….It’s time to learn to do something I swore I never would…Use a gun! The ole pepper spray, just won’t cut it!

Dr. Woodson

I am still mulling over your post at 22:46 and it is causing me to rethink some of my plans. I have always envisioned sealing off our doors and emerging months later to a changed world. I think we may still do that at the height of the pandemic in our area, but now I also can see my DH and I helping to form our PSG. I am already considering which neighbors we would approach first.

PLEASE HELP: I do have a QUESTION regarding YOUR BOOK and I have nowhere else to post it. I am getting the Flu Treatment Kit items in order and am unable to purchase 95% grain alcohol (retail names Everclear and Golden Grain) in my state. It is illegal here and in 7 other states. I really, really need this in order to mix the oral suspension meds for the kids. This is just typical of so many roadblocks I (and many others of us) have had to deal with. Please, what can you recommend as an alternative? The man at the liquor store said to just use Vodka, but I fear it could have reactions with the drugs. Any input you or another medical professional could offer would be so appreciated.

Mom 11 Don’t draw your weapon unless you are prepared to fire it, or they will take it from you and use it on you.

Also practice practice, firing and cleaning it and keep the ammo away from the weapon. Use a trigger lock so the kids don’t injure themselves. Best of luck and I am with you kido.

Mom11, after reading your recent posts, I sadly realize I am woefully ill-prepared if this is a worst-case scenario. You seem to be doing some super-human prepping! Of course, you have the maternal instinct driving you…no, pushing you, forward to accomplish some amazing things. There is another instinct I’ve been reading about in Deep Survival, the instinct to feed oneself. On page 220, Laurence Gonzales writes:

 “Although the body can go perhaps three weeks without food, the emotional drive is immense and becomes an obsession, a drive as strong as any fight or flight response.  It can’t be ignored.  People, of course, will kill for food.”

When I read that passage, it sent chills up and down my spine. It seems all of us are dancing around the main issue, in the event of a worst case scenario. Anonymity may be our best friend in such an event. Speaking of anonymity, Anonymous’ post at 00:17 reminded me of another fable, one by Aesop called The Ant and The Grasshopper.

Intelligent debate is one of the highest forms of the conversational art. It serves to educate and enlighten all who take part. Thanks to all who have contributed to this very civilized discussion. It is a real pleasure to participate in the give and take.

In response to several lines of thought read here, I would like to elaborate one of the ideas presented last night on this thread in a prior post.

It seems that many folks plan to remain in isolation during the pandemic as a nuclear family. In their view, this will improve their chances of survival by reducing their viral exposure and will ensure their food and medicine stockpile will last through the pandemic. In my view, this strategy is not survivable. It seems that the reason for our difference of opinion is related to a mismatch between our ideas regarding how much protection we will be afforded by society during the pandemic compared with the present.

A family can live in isolation today without too much concern because we are protected by the rule of law. There are police, fireman, and EMTs ready to come to our aid at a moment’s notice. The threat of arrest and imprisonment does deter crime. Without this deterrent, things would be different. We are as safe today as we will be during the pandemic from people like you because you would not rob, rape, and kill our families then steal our stockpiles. This is not because you fear reprisal; it is because you respect other’s properties and human rights. As we all know, there are those in our midst who do not share these moral values. These are the people whose actions are kept in check by the threat of retaliation by law enforcement. This inhibition would be removed if the ability to enforce the law broke down, as I think is likely to happen temporarily during the pandemic. Maybe you disagree with this point and if so, this explains why we see this differently. My appreciation of this risk is one of the primary reasons I think it is imperative to join together with likeminded people for mutual support and protection.

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

Dr. W:

I certainly commend your comments re: cooperative pandemic planning/prepping. In an ideal world, this would surely be the model to strive for. However, I am not sure it would work in most places I have lived over the last few decades. Perhaps when I was a child…

I do not know where you currently reside. But your experience may be coloring your commentary. Perhaps living in a more socialized country where the norm is more “for the greater good” vs. the “rights of the individual” is your life experience.

While I DO recognize the advantage that a cohesive group would provide for weathering a pandemic storm, I would also find it quite difficult to ensure the security of any panflu group I would organize.

I have attempted to educate and encourage the medical professionals within my immediate community to this possibility. Hundreds of us reside within my local neighborhood of approx. 1,000 families. But, even if I can get these professionals to cooperate, or even those on my street, all it takes is one rebel to breach the security and either infect, assault or raid supplies/group memebers.

The problem with a group pandemic plan is that at some point, SOMEONE will be excluded. SOMEONE will not understand. SOMEONE will feel threatened. SOMEONE will feel devalued. SOMEONE will panic. SOMEONE will overreact.

The reality is that is will be impossible to provide for everyone. Those of us in healthcare are already concerned with that potential and dread those decisions. Each individual in a community comes with their own problems, educational level, financial resources and mental/physical health status. No one is on a level playing field. Incorporating virtual strangers into a group that requires meticulous functionality, is a plan doomed to fail, IMO.

For all this to work as you would envision (I would also wish it, but wishes are not plans), would require a paradigm shift like none ever seen before. And it would have to start changing NOW. And knowing humanity, it would take a couple of generations to achieve the social order that your plan would require. We can’t even get the scientists of the world to co-operate regarding THIS current virus.

This would truly require a Brave New World scenario in which people automatically recognized their societal place/role and behaved accordingly. But, there is always a rebel, just like in the novel. Trying to band together with people you know, either as family or colleagues, seems less risky.

If this panflu occurs with any significant mortality, IMO, it will reshape everything: governments, healthcare systems, societal norms, etc. Perhaps then we will have a world in which strangers will work together for the common good, putting others before themselves…I hope I live to see it.

To: Lurker Mom – at 16:35

Thanks for letting me know that 95% grain ethanol is not available in every state. This is news to me. How do they spike the punch in those places?

You can substitute 90 proof vodka, the cheaper the better for the 95% grain alcohol. Vodka is simply water and grain alcohol. 90 proof vodka is 45% grain alcohol and 55% water. What you will need to do is to take this into consideration and adjust the formula for each oral suspension accordingly.

For instance, when the formula calls for 1 tbsp of grain alcohol you will need to use 2 tbsp of 90 proof vodka and reduce the water added to the solution by 15cc. This will work fine and gives you the same drug concentrations tsp for tsp. That is the most important thing about compounding, you must be sure that you get the concentration of the drug right in the solution so that you give the correct dose.

Let me know if you have any other questions. You can reach me on the www.birdflumanual.com website’s feedback section too.

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

De Jure - “Remember, it is better to be judged by twelve than be carried by six. “

My karate teacher says that. hahaha

Dr. W - i have tried to get my town up to sped. key word is tried. No one is taking this seriously except perhaps the First Selectman. But even he has to walk a fine line.

It just may come down to every man for himself… a pity. Doesnt need to be this way.

I came of age during the flower power era. Hippies - peace love and understanding.

It ain’t that way no more baby.

My first instinct will be to help. But God help the poor SOB that tries to drop some damage on my brood.

It certainly sounds good on paper but how long could this cooperative last with households only having a average of two weeks supply of food? The government does not have any great stockpiles of food. There are no great stockpiles of food anywhere in America or the world. They could not feed 300 million people for one day much less get it to us. To sum up what you seem to be saying is, we will all be protected from being robbed and murdered while we are starving to death.

I think what the Dr is aying your kids best change is with a group. I know this is fiction but it shows what he means. (a free full-lenght book)

www.giltweasel.com/stuff/LightsOut-Current.pdf

Tuck57

The Doctor at 17:57

Thank you for the response. I feel very relieved that there is an alternative and will follow your instructions. I had never tried to purchase 95% grain alcohol myself and was unaware it was illegal here until I tried to buy it today. Just as an FYI, the liquor shop owner said it is illegal to sell it in the following states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Washington, California, Michigan, Virginia, and West Virginia.

The Doctor – at 22:46 ~

History does repeat itself, whether or not one is ready.

I read what you wrote with great interest. You were able to put down in an organized fashion, those things that have crossed my mind. Perhaps I may have misunderstood some things, but the impression I got from reading what you wrote brought a few of the following thoughts to mind:

Modernization has been very beneficial in many ways…it has brought a convenience and an ease to living that was not known in generations past. We can turn on a switch and have instant light…indicative of many *instant fixes/gratification* we have incorporated into our lives.

As with all things, there are two sides to every coin. While modern living is all that most of us have ever known, there are certain things that have been lost or replaced…some of those things you mentioned like loyalty and trust has been whittled down to a small group of people in our inner circle and even then that poses risks.

People have learned how to be independent…to not need the help of others, and also not placed in a position where help is extended. What I am hearing when I read these posts is “I, I, I, mine, mine, mine (regardless of what it is being referred to, i.e. family, friends, ourselves).

Your post caused me to see things in a perspective I had not taken the time to look at before. I see resistance to your suggestions, I see wishful yet hopeless consideration of said suggestions, I see lines being drawn (perhaps because we’re not always able to comprehend a situation before we actually experience it), etc etc etc.

I think that your post struck me cause it took me back about 14 years when I lived for months in the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew that obliterated South Florida here. We had no electricity or phones or water for extendended periods of time, and we banded together as neighbors. We were fortunate to have National Guard march in troops up and down our streets several times a day. While we has survived through a disaster and were not necessarily faced with a bird flu life threatening type pandemic, we banded together because the GROUP was more valuable than the individuals. I’m sure we could have made it fine staying isolated, but it was far more healthy in many respects to work together.

Nobody knows exactly how this whole thing will go down. Nobody knows how many people will start opening their eyes when/if the pandemic threat gets closer. And nobody knows how it will actually be to live through the pandemic.

I can’t relate much to those that have prepped since they learned of this potential threat. I live a prepping lifestyle and have for many, many years. I have stores of supplies in many areas because I believe foundationally that there are no givens in life. Consequently, pouring huge amounts of time, energy and finances into prepping is something that I’ve been able to spread over a longer period of time.

I’ve listened as many people state how they will stand sentry over “them and theirs” and defy any intruder that crosses their boundry. Well, lemme tell ya something, I have the tools needed to defend quite accurately and precisely “me and mine”, and with all my experience and education and knowledge, in the back of my mind I’ve still known that a scenario like that has holes…it has vulnerable points and risks that concern me. If that’s the case for me, I would assume that it would be for others too.

I’ve also met a few people who share your PSG views. They talk about gathering community members to work together to protect the village, per se, as a whole. They talk about the men baracading the main road (the trunk of a tree) to protect the homes in that community (the branches of a tree). They talk about everyone sharing to some extent their supplies, but moreso their gifts, skills, knowledge to teach and fill in the gaps for others. I personally see much wisdom in this. I haven’t worked out yet how I can be a part of such a plan, but I’m watching and assessing how this pandemic is evolving, trying to figure out how best to proceed.

I think we sit here and decide in our minds, to the best of our ability, the best course of action. I hafta say I agree with you that there is more to surviving a pandemic than a roof over our heads and food on our table. Going through something like that is going to be much bigger than any of us can grasp with circumstances that will present themselves that we had not taken into consideration.

Sometimes, my thoughts in imaging the whole scope feel fleeting and just out of reach to grasp, but I still sense such a bigger picture than what we are able to write out today.

Anyway, I don’t know if any of this makes sense, but I know what I’m trying to say lol…so with that, I’ll just…

shadddup.

Bravo to FLA_MEDIC – at 04:50, Cold in Colorado – at 09:36Leo7 – at 14:33, Lurker Mom – at 16:35, and shadddup – at 21:18. You are my heroes!

Admittedly, my vision of the PSG could be regarded as idealistic. The actual form these groups will take will vary considerably from the autocratic to the democratic. Many will be chaotic. What is not in doubt is that they will form in response to a collapse of the over-culture. Think back to the depression era. Millions of homeless wondered through the countryside and within the cities during the 1930s. They came together in makeshift towns on the outskirts of proper cities and towns. These people self-assembled into ad hoc Depression Survivor Groups. Doing so provided them with community and protection. While everyone was impoverished, there was sharing of food, clothing, and medicine. The members of these communities came and went. Eventually, they disappeared entirely as the members were once again needed to serve the over-culture in uniform or in the factories.

That groups of the dispossessed will coalesce in response to the societal disruption created by pandemic influenza is a certainty. The quality of the experience of the members of the groups and their survivability is another matter. Right now, ante-pandemic, we have choices. These may not be available once the pandemic begins. We can consciously make the decision that forming a PSG is our best option because it offers its members including our own families the greatest chance of surviving the pandemic period well. Surviving well is not the same as simply surviving, an important point that I have been making repeatedly on this Discussion Forum.

This then is the challenge and the choice is ours to accept or reject. We have a great deal to offer to those coming after us. Will we decide to sprout roots and grow our hard won knowledge into a tree large enough to support others besides our families or will we remain an ungerminated seed? Choosing to form a PSG will take great effort. There is a possibility that you could fail. There is a chance you might succeed. If you don’t make the effort you will never know. If you succeed, the rewards will be beyond measure.

This is the situation as I see it. There is no right answer to this. Right now there are only opinions. We each need to make up our own minds regarding the path to take. The choice I have made is the one that is correct for me. You will make the one that is right for you.

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

well doc, I need help now. I have gone to my Town officials. They listened and asked me to help. Wonderful. I went to the local newspaper - gave them all the details of H5N1 and potentials of pandemia and asked to enlist their help in giving info to residents through the paper for prepping. I’ve contacted the school board. I talked with the big Church in town. Even got a majot TV network to come to my home and show my preps and talk about preparedness. I talked at length with the neighbors. I post Panflu fliers all over town. I made a very local based website about panflu and mailed invites to every home within a mile radius of me.

so where am I today?

All by myself… thats where. The town is talking about making a panflu website while the next town over made an excellent one and offered it to my town. My town declined… still no site - I have offered my help for supplying info for the site - nope… not a chance in hell they’ll ask me anything.

The paper? I requested they run a full story on BF, and not identify me yet… what they do? ran a bull story and identified me and my street. oh and mentioned 3 days of preps.

School board? nada.

neighbors? ha - not one takes anything i have shown them (WHO & CDC charts, news stories, medical reports, 1918 info) not one is prepping nor do they want to know about it.

Family? nope - not one takes it seriously - they just use me as the BF joke.

Friends? have one that lives 5 min away - he knows everything - even reads the boards at times - prepping? HA nope - i even asked him to write me his reasons for not prepping so i could share it with the BF board community to enlighten us as to the mindset of a non prepper…. have you read it? me neither.

Panflu fliers? they get ripped down just after i put them up.

My website? not one visit.

Your concept is a nobel one and probably the only way many will survive… but until Panflu comes and devastates the community, I fear no one will do anything. Then i fear, as it will be too late, take everyone near them down with them.

so I ask again… now what? How can I get to the point where I have a group who will band together and work together to help each other to survive?

I may be echoing many who have tried. I am frustrated beyond words. And just today my state puts up a panflu website downplays the threat and recommends 3 days preps.

I have moved from the “I will prep and defend myself” to “get everyone around me prepped” to “screw them, It’s gonna be every man for himself”.

Man… I need someone to show me how to do what you are suggesting… cause nothing seems to have worked.

Goju – at 21:31

I’m so sorry you haven’t had the response you wanted. People tend to not want to focus on the negative. I am finding some people coming around. One of the people I work with is prepping at least as much as me. Another is now expressing concern. I know at least one neighbor is prepping too.

I volunteered for my county’s flu clinic today as part of the Strategic National Stockpile Mass Dispensing program and by 7:30 a.m., there were over 100 volunteers there (Wow), many of them whom I have known most of my life, and the same people I always see volunteering in our community of 36,000. Many brought up the subject of pandemic flu and I had good conversations with a couple people. I think more and more people are starting to “get it.” It was really amazing to see everybody come together to make this thing work and we all understood the gravity of this training exercise. After this experience and working with my “friends” toward a common goal, I think the people in my community will pull together for the common good. On the down-side, an elderly gentleman had a heart attack and died during the first hour of the clinic - unlike an actual mass vaccination clinic, they didn’t have an ambulance there and had to administer CPR for 15 minutes till the ambulance got there. I was in charge of the area where the gentleman collapsed, so it kinda shook me up, but we all learned a lot from the experience (which happened during the busiest time).

Anyway, I digress. My point is that I’ve been following your posts and admired your enthusiasm and determination to get the word out. Don’t give up. If you get through to just one person, you may save several lives.

To GoJo and other frustrated people,

Be patient. You community is not ready to hear your message. You are reaching too high. Lower your sites. Focus on those nearest to you first. Then add a few neighbors. As time passes there will be more and more folks willing to join your merry band.

Forget the elected officials. Forget the organized groups of CERTS and such. They will not come around until it is too late. Pandemic survival is going to be a local affair. That is why you are important. Your role is not to save the community by reaching the leadership and getting them on board. Forget it.

Set your sites on the possible, not the impossible. You can make a difference. A difference on the local level, very local, meaning your friends, family, and neighbors. That is what I am hoping to do.

On the Fluwikie, we make a much bigger splash to the extent that many people read our words and act upon them. But the fact remains that during the pandemic; it will be a strictly local affair. You and those around you trying to survive.

So, have faith. Maintain your preparations. I am very sorry that you have received such an inappropriate reception. This is not surprising or unusual. They are not ready to hear you now. Leave them be. I really doubt that public officials are going to get it in time. Focus on the doable not the impossible.

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

Goju

Guess I should not be shocked at your reception given my own experiences. Really thought you were going to make a breakthrough in your town. Think my efforts have had about the same effect, have only convinced my DW, a friend who is prepping, maybe one neighbor, but I am still putting myself out there. Given up on town PTB, they talk right over me when I try to point out in a nice way how little they know and how futile there present plans, such as they are, will be. They do not have a clue.. That will last until and when TSHTF, then it’s lock the door and look out for us and our no longer at home chicks, who don’t seem to take it too seriously either, but at least they took the Tamiflu I procured for them. My emotions run between anger at the ignorance and stupidity out there and sadness that so many will suffer if the Pandemic hits. It’s late and it has been a rough week on my end. Going to bed and maybe tomorrow will be a better new day.

Keep on Trying out there Fluwikians!

Goju - I understand your frustration, and share much of it. But I can tell you: there is hope.

When I first started spreading the bird flu alarm more than a year ago, few listened. Family and friends rolled their eyes, and suggested I needed a hobby. Preferably one that didn’t include emerging infectious diseases.

Never one to listen to gentle hints, I persisted.

Today, my brother, my sister, and my Dad are all believers, and are all prepping. My best friend from high school, who blew me off earlier this year, is now a believer, and just emailed me with a request for Dr. Woodson’s latest home treatment guide. And thru my blog, I have received dozens of emails from people who are now prepping.

I’ve reached out to numerous family freinds, and several of them are now prepping seriously. No . . .not all. But more than would have if I had given up.

And even among the skeptics, the ones’s who aren’t preparing, nearly all of them have asked to be put on an `early alert’ list. If I’m convinced that a pandemic has started, they’ve asked that I notify them immediately, so they can prepare. Yeah, I know. It may be too little, too late. But it’s better than nothing.

You’ve done far better than I reaching out to the community. No one here wants to hear it. I live in a tourist town, and most of the residents are elderly. The Powers That Be are very hesitant to discuss panflu here, but I’m still hoping to get through to them. But it all takes time. And persistance. You should be proud of what you have accomplished.

I blogged for months, 4 or 5 times a week, before I got the first feedback. As far as I knew, no one was reading it. Turns out, I was wrong. Even my skeptical friends and family were reading. They just weren’t convinced. That took time.

The point is, whether you realize it or not, you’ve reached other people. Your enthusiasm, your willingness to go to the city fathers and speak publicly on this subject, has impressed many people. Some you know, and I’d wager many you don’t know.

You’ve laid serious groundwork. That is not to be underestimated. When Avian Influenza becomes a big news item again (and it will), people will remember you, and they will be far more receptive to your message. Even the reporter who botched the story may come back hat in hand, because you will already be perceived as the one to talk to about a pandemic.

Keep on keeping on. Best I can tell you. If the timing of your message isn’t right today, it may well be right tomorrow, or next month.

In the meantime, keep reaching out to people. It isn’t easy, and the rewards may not be readily apparent, but it is worth it.

I have been speaking out for months — got to be the party joke “How many seconds until E mentions bird flu?” — have been sending out emails like crazy. For some reason, it was the article that ran in the Tufts newspaper that opened the eyes of a friend whose kid just started at college an hour away. Suddenly she “got it.” Moreover, she’s a director at a small school, so she’s talking to others.

It’s like fly fishing. Somedays you get skunked. Keep fishing. Change the lure, try a different technique, but keep going. I love the concept of the “Reveres” — you have got to smile when you think of Paul Revere thundering through the April night with the news “The British are coming!” — don’t you just know that there were a few grumpy farmers who muttered “damn idiot making all that racket should jolly well shut up” — and thank goodness he didn’t.

I heard you, Goju. Loud and clear. Concise and clear. You have touched many here. I am grateful that I could hear you.

Hi Goju!

I understand what you are going through! I give you credit, because you haven’t given up…I have! No one listens, no one cares! I wonder what will happen to my grown chicks, many states away. Many friends say, their faith in God will protect them…I pray it does..It hasn’t worked in this house. One thing after another happnes here, so I’m counting only on myself to protect mine! I’ve tried everything, only to be laughed at, ignored, teased! When I got sick, my grown sons teased me about the “bird flu” trial vaccine making me sick and…Maybe it did. Everything I’ve tried has back fired. Everything I’ve done, has been done the hard way. I have had no support for any of this. My husband hates it all.

I thought I was reaching the Amish, but recently when visiting a local farm, a mother asked me what happended to the chickens when they got H5. She had chickens dying. I told her that I would call the health dept., but to keep the children away from the birds and not to eat any of them. She quickly backed off and said “Well chickens die.”

I also understand what you are trying to say Dr. Woodson, but I see no way it would work for my family. I can guarantee that not one of the 2 dozen homes down the road are prepping. Most of them, won’t even acknowledge you when you go by. This is a very closed community and we aren’t from here. I’m not willing to hand over my preps to these people to watch my babies die. They are my motivation for prepping. My preps would be gone in hours, to do no one any good. I’m sure no one would be dropping food by here. My children are very difficult, trying to prep,cope and care for them, on a daily basis is all I can manage. I’m certain no one will be here to help! This doesn’t mean I won’t share, but I won’t threaten my one children’s lives by what I do. There isn’t another person, that would put these children first and I am going to. I share what I can now…I have taken 30 lbs. of meat and two bushels of apples to an elderly neighbor in the past two weeks. I’ve tried to help other friends, but no one is saving anything for later. I’ve just had it! I’m exhausted and can do no more!

No MSM coverage isn’t helping our cause.

No BF Board news isn’t helping us with our own doubts.

I took a break and went to the movies tomite… and ran into the reporter who interviewed me. The look in his eyes was telling. Shame? perhaps… avoidance? totally.

I resisted the urge to nail him to the wall since I still have hope here and perhaps it was his editor that put the brakes on things.

I see dead people everywhere.

Goju! Did you just finish watching “Sixth Sense” too!! There is no bedtime here!

it is soo sad… when i pick my kids up from school, I look at all the other kids and think many of them will not be here because their parents will not listen nor act. They are indeed like ghosts.

I think we “Panflu watchers and preppers” have some sort of “future vision” where we can “see” what it would be like and then “act” accordingly.

In the book “Deep Survival” he talks about this type of mindset that survivors have… this “future sight”. The ability to see things the way they may be based on how they are now… and then be able to act with that knowledge.

I guess most of the residents in my town and my friends and family are not survivors….. they would not make a good survival group would they Dr. W?

Goju:

Ok, I’m going to give you the view from the Mom front.

When you have a kid who won’t eat any kind of new food, and you’re a Mom, you have to keep trying. You just keep putting the new food in front of the kid. They say that it takes at least 12 times doing that - putting something new under the kid’s nose - to get them to like it (or, at least to find it acceptable finally!).

I think the same principles are operative here too. We are convinced of the urgent and important nature of pandemic awareness and preparedness, so we don’t understand how others, looking at exactly the same information and data, can not be convinced. But we probably aren’t aware of just how many times the peas were under our nose with regard to H5N1 before we suddenly got it ourselves.

Your town officials, that reporter, his editor, and obviously our state representatives (ahem..) need the H5N1 peas to be put under their noses at least a dozen times before we give up.

BTW, a mom can tell you that while it takes persistence, it usually does not take all 12 tries. Still, it always takes more than one or two tries before the kid eats those peas.

And ask your wife if you don’t believe me. I am sure that like the rest of us moms trying to get her darlings to eat peas, she often ended up wearing them instead! Goju, at least you don’t have to take a bath after the rejection of your efforts. :)

i don’t like my peas either.

We’ve got “God given time,” Go. (Nabarro)

Use it.

And eat your peas.

 Pixie- Well said…I think you have hit the nail on the head.

 I don’t know how long it took me before I started looking for forums on the net regarding Bird Flu: It must of taken atleast 12 incidences of reading the possibilities of it happening.

 Think of all the wonderful flavours you would have missed out on if your mother didn’t keep forcing you to eat onions and mushrooms. Now I crave for the stuff.

 Well posted. 

 I noticed a huge rise in this forums readership after Pandemic Awareness Week, but there was also a few cases that came out in quick succession aswell.

Goju:

Let me offer this insight I gleaned from your posts after the conference you attended. It seemed as if you went through some type of religious conversion—if you take the time to objectively examine your posts the word zealot would fit. I debated whether or not to say something to rein your enthusiasm in so you could contemplate where you were going—but you seemed focused on death of children and getting out the word to deaf people immediately. It was like I heard drumbeats in your posts. I will submit that at some point you went from teaching to preaching. All this accumulated in the new rejection I’m feeling from your posts. You are an adult and can do what you wish but there are some things that will never change. Most people ignore park preachers and prefer church preachers or ministers where there is an established code of training, education and experience.

The truth is if you’re not a scientist you can’t cite science with authority because you have no background—or education in science to back up your words. You’re like a talking head on the news, not the reporter lying in mud being shot at to get the news. Sorry for the weak example but it’s late. Whatever your field is approach PF education from that point where you have credibility and speak with authority. The more you have to lose—such as a science or medical background—the more likely you proceed with caution because your peers will rip you a new one. The proof of this is in the posts of the scientists on the wicki. Cautious but lively.

I fully expect an emotional discharge to this post. I think your heart was in the right place, but when it comes to doomsday predictions, credentials matter. Otherwise the message is lost. You would do better working inside a committee rather than teaching it. BTW, I admire the way you launched yourself to help others in your community. I just wish it wasn’t hitting you so hard now.

LaEscapee, thanks for the empathy a while back. Pixie,LOL— I know what you mean about kids and trying new foods, it’s all of the child development literature also…toddlers are designed by nature to have aversion for novel foods (to variying degrees)…protected them in the distance past from eating some poisonois plant etc. I agree! it is same phenonmenon..exactly. It is great context to hold presenting pandemic prep that way…people have an aversion to it like it is a potentially noxious substance needing repeated exposure to break thru resistance. We can’t take it personally, just like with kids. Over and over we must present it. I will use this idea with my friends.

Goju, take heart, so sorry for your discouragement tho I understand it and it sucks. You have worked so hard. I really admire what you put into this, what you have shared here and with your community, and how much you care. Please know it wasn’t a waste, at least for us. You showed me what can be possibly be done. And you broke this ice for many who you don’t yet know because they haven’t said anything.

About the previous conversation… thought thru all contingencies how to lay low in my city apt and still hope and wish for people to SIP with or to at least have as survival group and have not given up. When I said low income area of renters (someone else complained about renters without money behind her, dismissing them as possible allies in prepping. I am doing so NOT because they (like me actually) are renters. It is because of the TURNOVER..I don’t Know them, and they change whenever I make efforts to start to).

Unlike some here I completely agree with the Doc about the pandemic survival groups. I DO think it is the best way. But what I STILL WANT TO HEAR FROM HIM is what to do for those of us who live in areas where people come and go. Who unlike Mom11 do not have a built in clan? (so sorry for your frustration an exhaustion Mom11, you obviously are a generous person sharing so with your elderly neighbor. i am sure if thshtf you will share and be as generous as feels safe for you and your family. You are not a fool nor should you be laughed at for caring so much).

I have spent a substantial portion of money prepping for this.. It Isn’t a lack of generosity, I am willing to share. I don’t feel with respect Dr. W. that you understand at least the group of us who are WILLING and in Agreement that your survival proposal holds the most promise…but cannot inact it. I will say again. I have prepped to have food, to stay warm dispite not being able to store fuel having no land,I have herbs and medicine and supplies to care for self if sick, and PP gear to care for others, even. I have learned skills. I have lighting. I have books. I know how to grind grain, to make and bake in a box oven usuing coal, how to care for a flu victim. I have cardboard to block my windows, a tent to stay warm indoors, etoh fuel and sterno and charcoal for the poarch. I have bought many copies of the excellent original booklet amd have given them out to people I hope to interest in preparing.

One needs to be georgraphically close to where their allies live. That means, if I am to stay here, I need to have my neighbors be my survival group. THat isn’t possible. Many are students and will leave the area. People move yearly. My friends live far away and as I said are not prepping. I do agree with Dr. W. that eventually people will come around. However, what that means in practicle terms is that I NEED TO WAIT for them to GET it. Have worked my butt off trying to get friends to get it…because I care about them and their kids, but also because I WANT to go thru this with them.

So, Dr. WOodson, could you please address what one is to do in a situation when one is NOT able to rally ones neighbors to survive with? I just wish you would understand that NOT EVERYONE lives in a suburban neighborhood or small town where people know eachother and stay over time. There are plenty of us on the Wiki in those circumstances. I for one am working on letting people in a number of social circles be aware of this…and am activiely looking for people who are open to prepping. Still they will geographically live far from me…

I was just reading about Gunniston Co and other communties who survived well thru the 1918 pandemic. REading original newspaper articles, I saw from how they were written how everyone took care of eachother. They talked about how the public health measures would at least slow down the pandemic so “not everyone would get sick at once and that there would be healthy people to care for the ill”. I was really struck with how Dr. W’s idea actually was manifested in these communities. People used to live like that…know eachother…care. It was the natural order of things and still is in some areas. Not in cities where there is a lot of turnover year to year in housing. IT is really different.

anyway, great ideas. Not implementable as they are presented by all of us. I just would so appreciate that those of us who do not have the resources…in this case social…would be at least ACKNOWLEDGED.

Maybe if TSHTF or looks like it I will put a call out here for anyone in my area wanting to be in my PFS group…or maybe we can check in with eachother.

courage to us all, don’t give up!

Goju,

I’ve had the same experiences, but not quite as spectacular as yours. I have changed my strategy. I no longer “shout from the rooftop” about a pandemic. People don’t like being preached at unless you are a preacher of God’s word. You are talking down to them when you do that. I start with a subtle nudge like “did you see that article in the paper about bird flu?” Whatever they say, yes or no, I ask for their opinion.

If their opinion is not to worry, I tell them I am a little worried but I’m not sure what to do. I hear all kinds of advice then. But I bring the conversation around to prepping. I tell them I sure was glad I had canned goods when the power went out during that snowstorm we had back in ‘03. I laugh with them about duct tape for terror preps. I bring up all kinds of reasons for prepping aside from prepping for bird flu. Then I lie and tell them what a good idea they have about being prepared for bird flu if it comes and say we should both start prepping and how do they think we should go about it. They know how already for basic things. This just puts a bug in their ear and at a later date I tell them about all the good info I’ve found and I thank them for their help in getting me started. Quite a few, but not all, ask me for the info. I have a little list already prepared with web sites and a grocery list of items to buy the next time you go to the store. Of course, flu wiki is on that list. I may be giving myself away to some I have referred to here, but hey, I love you, that’s why I did it.

If, when I’ve asked them for their opinion and they say they are a little worried, then I say “yeah, me too, what do you think about cans of tuna under the bed?” This starts a conversation about how to prep, even if you don’t have much money, which is a major reason why most people don’t do it. I and most of my friends are not rich.

For the community leaders I have encountered, I have another approach altogether. I ask them what our community is doing with the pandemic money being sent by the federal government to the communities. Boy, if anything lights up their face, it’s the idea of federal money. Of course, there is not really a federal funding to the communities for pandemic planning so to speak, but it gets their interest right away. And of course this is a lie too, but I tell them “I’m pretty sure the federal money is being sent to communities who have a pandemic prepardness program, do we have one?” This starts the conversation about one. My city council did hold a forum on the concerns, I’m not sure if it was due to me or not, I watched it on TV and several mentions were about how to get money for supplies and equipment. Unfortunately, I have seen nothing since.

The point of all this is to get others to think that it’s their idea. They are way more likely to do something that they think is their own idea than if someone is preaching at them about it. You just gotta choke on your knowledge a little.

And then again, I have faced the deny-ers, won’t even talk about it. They’ll be the ones out there crying on the news that they have nothing and no one is there to help them. Yep, and we’ll all smell that rat then too.

jplanner, let’s at least go out to eat together somewhere soon. (does pogge, or a revere, have your email?)

Dr. “a member of a disciplined, well-supplied and organized PSG whose members are committed to the survival of all the other members would” be very lucky.

Disciplined=taught, and, able to control themselves to follow rules. People who can understand that our “non-negotiable” lifestyle will be so out of luck if society gets a novel virulent virus. No waiting for your magic-antiviral, 48-hour town vaccine distribution, bottled water, cooked food, hospital cure, and cash card (and DMORT team) from the govt.

We are not the community authority powers-that-be (they don’t want us “inside committees” - and some I’ve seen, I couldn’t be a party to their do-not-tell-the-public agenda, anyway) people aren’t in a hurry to prepare about a scary, people-get-sick-and-die possibility they still can hope won’t happen, so they don’t have to act, and, the govt is keeping life “as normal” so they can think so (yet is on record as having warned us; local communities are on their own). We don’t have community leadership on preparedness, and they are working counter to what we want to see occurring; up-to-speed awareness and honest information, and, individuals taking initiative. TPTB seem to want to wait and just tell people what their severely limited options are during a pandemic year. (And somehow, something will happen to manage the fatalities.)

Just by not saying anything tptb can make us look alarmist (and some of the public are afraid to check the websites and see for themselves that the warnings are real, and have been up for a year).

The Doctor at 17:45 on Oct. 17: “As we all know, there are those in our midst who do not share these moral values. These are the people whose actions are kept in check by the threat of retaliation by law enforcement. This inhibition would be removed if the ability to enforce the law broke down, as I think is likely to happen temporarily during the pandemic. Maybe you disagree with this point and if so, this explains why we see this differently.”

I think it’s important for everyone who is not understanding what the doctor said at that time to go back and re-read his comments in their entirety.

Yes, Dr. Woodson, I do agree with your premise, your analysis, the possible outcome in such a situation, but not the probable solution to the problem. And I do not disagree with your point. I think you nailed it right on the head. There will be mass chaos and pandemonium in such a situation. We already have a small historical model for it. It’s called Katrina.

Remember what happened during Hurricane Katrina, Dr. Woodson? Remember how the thugs picked out the most vulnerable and had their way with them? I think Katrina teaches us two major lessons. First lesson: don’t ever, ever let an “authority” corral you together with a big, crowded mass of people in a single place. There are too many historical lessons where this never, ever works out to anyone’s advantage, except for the governing body. Anyone could see that the Super Dome was anything but “super” for a survival plan. Lesson number two: If you don’t have a gun, get one. Don’t rely on the National Guard or anyone else to provide for your own protection. They can’t be everywhere at the same time, and bad and nasty things happen to defenseless people when the sun goes down (and there’s no electricity). In fact, the Guard was instructed to take guns away from the law-abiding folks by the illustrious Mayor Nagan at the time. What a mistake. Because after they took their guns away, they left those poor people defenseless, to fend for themselves at night. Who did the bandits leave alone? The folks with shotguns, pistols, rifles, etc. And they did so because there were easier pickin’s out there.

So my point would be this: make your dwelling inaccessible (so nobody can come and take you to the “super-duper” hospital camp), and be prepared to defend yourself and your family to the death. As Patrick Henry once said, give me liberty or give me death. I wouldn’t want to live a slow death of starvation, cowering in some corner somewhere. If I had to, my family and I would go out with a bang (literally), and woe to the person or people who put us in that situation. I’d prefer to die like an American. Amen.

Hi Dejure

Well said. I know you are a ‘thinker’so you would know that the particular system you describe is flawed. For example, if there is a threat at the perimeter to your property and you are defending it…the clock will be ticking because you can only stay awake for so long to keep your family protected.

If you live 10 miles from your nearest neighbour, you may be able to do it by yourself but if you live in the neighbourhood of other families who have not prepped, you will have a problem. As you said, “I wouldn’t want to live a slow death of starvation, cowering in some corner somewhere. If I had to, my family and I would go out with a bang (literally)…”.

Most of us have these small groups avaliable, they are called extended famillies and usually at least some of them live in the countryside…but then again several months enclosed with my extended family might be a fate worse then death.

I think it comes down to the same thing it came down to two hundred years ago in the USA and Canada and other frontiers….COMMUNITY.

We can form a loose association with a community. A community can share security patrols so that you can get a good nights sleep once in a while. A community can help treat your sick and buy and attain medications together ‘by hook or by crook’.

If you have the food and medications and others in your proximity don’t…then in my opinion, there is no way to keep them out…far better to have everyone with the same provisions.

We should be meeting with our communities, throwing 60$ into the pot for each family member, find an understanding doctor and get buying medications…it will be the cheapest insurance any of us ever bought.

Secondly, for the Government, keeping children alive is a matter of national security…again, 60$ per child is a small price to pay to have a country when it is all over…if they don’t save the children, in twenty years there will be others at the door.

Thanks.

Tom DVM: “We should be meeting with our communities, throwing 60$ into the pot for each family member, find an understanding doctor and get buying medications…it will be the cheapest insurance any of us ever bought.”

Tom DVM, have you started prepping yet? Please don’t take the question the wrong way, because for those of us who have been prepping literally for years, $60 is a mere drop in the bucket. My point is that if everyone started prepping tomorrow, and the pandemic were to start as you predicted, there aren’t enough resources (and I know you’re a thinker too, and probably much better at mathematics than I, so I’m going to assume you would agree with the logistical problem as I’ve presented it).

As to someone getting through your perimeter, there are whole previous threads devoted to this topic (before some of them were shut down), and a person could get many a useful tip by reviewing them.

No, I think the main difference between our two camps of thought is a philosophical one. The medicos, who subscribe to the creed, “First do no harm” can’t conceive of a situation where self-defense by use of force is ever necessary. Then this same group is thrown into a situation like Katrina, where if they were to leave their helpless patients alive, the patients would die a slow, horrible death. So they instead do what any humane person would do: they hasten their departure from this earth with the aid of a little morphine. We can’t stand in judgment over those good people, because we did not live the horror that was the Katrina aftermath. These good and dedicated physicians stayed behind when everyone else fled. And what is their reward? They’re now being indicted for murder. Just great. But this reflects what happens in a chaotic situation. There are no easy answers. The fact is that we may all die from such a catastrophic event as an H5N1 pandemic. The big question might be “How?” Perhaps you’ll just have to pick your poison.

Hi De jure. You are quite right. I have not started to prep yet…and if I was telling others to prep, which I have not done, that would be unethical.

What I am trying to do is comment of the relative benefits of countries and communties banding together rather than individual families trying to go it alone…and I do not believe that I am disqualified from commenting in this way.

The point about the sixty dollars was not that we would be fully prepped for this amount. The point was that sovereign countries have a responsibility to national security. Being in a pandemic that preferentially kills children, without any antibiotics or other treatments, is not in my opinion just a matter of unfortunate circumstances but has long term repercussions for the country in question…if that countries adversaries to protect their children.

Thirty dollars would provide medications for the children and young people in question. An additional thirty dollars would allow some stockpiling of high energy foods etc. to support them so that they would survive in the interests of the longterm survival of the country.

In my country of thirty million people, 1.8 billion would do it…if I was in a position of authority, I would check how long antibiotics would remain effective if stored properly and then I would hire in country pharmaceutical companies to produce them. This is a small price to pay in my opinion.

I also believe that SIP is not an option to 99 % of the population. I think we must rely on our communty to help feed, protect and treat our families.

I guess my philosophical question to you would be…what is going to happen if your loved ones get sick. Are you going to let them die at home or are you going to do everything possible to get treatment elsewhere in hospital etc…

…and in asking the question, I lets that in the end it blows over and we were all wrong.

Sorry, the last part should have read…and in asking the question, let’s hope that in the end, it blows over and we were all wrong.

Coju..I also see dead people everywhere, especially the children. I drive around my town and see people going about there business and constantly wonder what will happen to them. As stated in previous threads I’m an ICU nurse, and for the last several years have been trying to get as many people as I can to pay attention. My hospital has done absolutely nothing (there are some nurses prepping but majority think I’m looney tunes) We had 1 meeting where we recently watched a live CDC webinar, and then they let me speak for about 30 minutes…there was 8 people there, including me. Last month our town set up a Disaster planning fair on main street, we had DOH, RED Cross with there big Bus, fire dept, fire rescue, police, emergency managemnet, and me with a table for pandemic preparedness, lots of handouts. We where set to be there from 9:00 to 1:00, we had less than 15 people show up, and the DOH was giving free immunizations!!! It was a major disapointment, we all packed up & left at 12:00. I have submitted very well written articles to both our papers recently, neither of which they choose to publish ( they would rather talk about who came to so & so’s party and what kind of food was served) I have been doing epidemiology research for more than then years and have published several articles for business preparedness, I have approached my community & my hospital not as an alarmist but as a person with knowledge and a simple message…the food will not go to waste- look at is as another one of your insurance measures…start slowly…it can be affordable to everyone, etc. Last week there was a big CSCMP supply chain 4 day conference in San Antonio & I spoke there on business pandemic readiness, I had a slightly better turnout and people who actually asked questions! Have not been able to convince my neighboors of anything..except I’m crazy! There are people I know around town who are taking this very seriously but we are all scattered out in the country. DR. W I think this is the point everyone is trying to make, we don’t live in the type of community that was around in 1918, as much as we all would like to. I have not given up and still talk to anyone who will give me 5 minutes, but the frustration gets overwhelming!

Thanks all for helping me out of my gloom this fine Sunday morning… the air is clean, sky is blue, leaves red, yellow and orange and flying all around… simple beautiful…

I’m going down to town to post more panflu fliers!

Then buy a pumpkin and carve it with my sweet 13 yr old dear daughter and wonderful wife.

TXNurse – at 11:48

Here, we are listening. Thank you.

This has been a thoughtful thread on which I have lurked for some time. First, while I agree with the Dr. that we will (almost) all be exposed, the 1918 experience was that the virus became less virulent over time after August. That suggests that even deferring exposure might have some benefit. Two, if we spread out the pressure on hospitals and HCW’s, we have a better chance of avoiding a complete breakdown. Three, as Tom DVM points out, we really need the government to do some things like stockpile meds for secondary infections because not enough MD’s will write prescriptions for speculative future illnesses and pet meds (while sometimes better than nothing) will not cut it either. If the pandemic comes and tens of millions fall ill in a brief time period, life will be very difficult. Unless one already has a social network, it is very tough to build one on the threat of a pandemic. We need a collective response on top of a family and town response. We are not doing very well.

TomDVM at 10:20: My prior comments, as therein indicated, were not meant to cast a hypocritical shadow on you. Sorry if you misunderstood me. I enjoy reading your commentaries, although I don’t agree with everything you have to say (but don’t worry…I hardly ever agree with anyone 100%…feel free to ask my DW and she’ll verify that). I would direct your attention to a previous comment that I made and underline it for emphasis: nobody (not you, not Dr. Woodson, not Dem from CT, not Dr. Webster) knows exactly what the next pandemic landscape will look like. All I have to go on is recent history, which doesn’t align well with what I understand a pandemic situation would look like. As others have indicated, the last serious pandemic was back in 1918, and the world was a completely different place back then.

To argue differently would be to assume a different premise, that the world during WWI was not much different than the world today. I could understand how some folks might go by this premise. For one, it would be easier to be optimistic, to have some kind of plan rather than survive by the seat of one’s pants. This is so because we as nations and peoples are the descendants of those who survived panflu ‘18. But there have been too many differences pointed out by other posters to ignore, differences that underline how dependent we have become on other specialists and specialized machinery. I for one hope that you and Dr. Woodson are correct (better you than me in our assumptions and analyses). But since I believe in the motto, “Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst,” I shall continue to put in place a plan to first defend my family in the event of such a catastrophe. Who knows, there may be a blending of different plans which one must resort to in order to survive. Again, I say we won’t know what the future pandemic landscape will look like until it arrives. I would just caution anyone before they put their trust in faith in their neighbors for their safety to first prepare as if they couldn’t count on outside help (worst-case scenario).

I hadn’t read this thread since the start and didn’t realize the turn in direction — it is very interesting!

Reader at 4:46 You are brilliant!

I’ve been thinking about my suburban situation and realized no one on our street really knows each other. Since I am out of money to buy preps, again, I think I’m gong to focus on our block. I’ll avaoid mention of pandemic or even emergency preparedness at first, just invite some folks over for dinner and maybe see if I can get a group together to plan a block party. Ideally, it would be good to get organized enough so we mostly had each other’s emails and phone numbers; knew each other’s names and so on. And one idea I heard of but never had the guts to try was to cirulate a skills and tools list — a list of people’s skills and tools that they don’t mind sharing (in a neighborly way) bartering or exchanging for cold hard cash (but perhaps below market rate, again, in a neighborly way).

Even though these ideas aren’t related specifically to the formation of a Pandemic Survival Group, somehow I have the feeling that such a group just wouldn’t be appealing right now to my neighbors — but who can argue with neighborliness? At the very least it’ll lay a foundation for some future more serious meetings… I hope.

Hoping your health is improving, Tom DVM.

TXNurse, the “probably prematurely dead people” don’t understand why I can’t enjoy fun superficial things anymore with them when they won’t look into our pandemic alert period. (Not that I was able to be very light of heart the past few years anyway. But now, I look to be the eccentric recluse-in-training, or, just the town kook. Maybe I need to rewatch the Monthy Python “Village Idiots” sketch?) When they see pandemic occurring, believe me, I will not want to hear from all these people. Can do the most good now to talk about it, please; while effective action and options are possible.

And as for the officials and people in positions of public trust who are privately prepping for their households and staying silent in public, I can barely get within shouting distance of them for fear I won’t be civil. (Sort of kidding.)

So many children in this town, and people, and a whole year after the federal and WHO pandemic websites went up they haven’t seen the news, and don’t realize there isn’t even a workable plan to manage and bury all the bodies. The local authorities must have panicked to either “hope it doesn’t happen” or, gamble away those in their trust whose taxes pay their salary by saying, There’s nothing they would or could do that would make a difference anyway, so, we’ll only tell them what little we think “they need to know”. Following guidance from those in authority over them - bull- maybe; until they get up to the ones who said, months ago, to bring all private and public stakeholders to the table and plan how communities can meet the needs of people homebound by illness or quarantine for as long as necessary, as state and federal and mutual aid will not be possible.

Maybe I will rewatch the Monty Python, Undertakers sketch; the one where, one by one, the pallbearers keel over dead and those remaining add to the coffin and keep trying to carry it towards the graveyard… I’d like to get the community talking about mass fatality planning and they are still confusing the words “flu” “bird flu” and “pandemic flu” even in the rare official mentions of the topic.

I hope you have nice weather for your block party, Average Concerned Mom. We’ve had non-thunderstorm wind gusts to 72mph today; Nature’s trying to blow us to Norway or the Atlantic flyways or something.

Goju — don`t worry you inspired me to get my act together and start prepping seriously and also realize that we can`t go it alone. Check out Greenhammer.com for another person trying to do what you are doing in a difficult community (although the emphasis is on earthquake preparedness). I think you need to understand that you are not just trying to educate but rather create a change in behavior. This is one of the most difficult things to do in the world. AID agencies spending billions of dollars find this difficult.

I suggest finding one or two influential people (well thought of social networking mothers for example) or (business people) and getting them on board.

Goju,

I have the same feeling as you everywhere I go, and it is has become quite surreal. All I have to do is plug in whatever CFR happens to be running through my head and I start counting the corpses in my field of vision. I can not stop it.

This weekend we saw our freshman son swim well in his first college meet. Good times (pun intended). We also saw our daughter perform solo parts with a district-wide honors orchestra. More good times. In-between, we went to a supermarket where we stared in horror as a customer opened a freezer door, hung onto it for support, and coughed her lungs out onto the frozen food. Later, we saw someone merely turn his head to sneeze, without realizing that he was sneezing directly onto other people.

While I do not agree with Dr. Woodson that each and every one of us will be exposed, I can certainly envision how 99% of the planet will infect each other. Much like lower life forms, they will unwittingly cough and sneeze and touch and lick and breathe and unwittingly exchange whatever nasty things are in their bodily fluids or aerosols. And that will be their undoing.

Total isolation is the only recourse. But I still see dead people, and many of them are my friends, relatives, colleagues, and neighbors.

DR. Dave & Goju….seeing the “dead” is the hardest part of this whole thing for me (I see enough dead people at work) but the children & the young are just to hard to get around. The flu does not scare me, its the lack of basic provisions that most people won’t have and the ensuing panic and complete breakdown that will come with this that scares the hell out of me.

To those who doubt they will be able to from an effective PSG or who live in an unsafe area, take heart. It is early days yet. We remain in de facto WHO Pandemic Alert Phase 4. There is time remaining, frankly more than I thought.

Will Stewart, David Jodrey and I devoted a few weeks last spring working on solutions for people that live in unsafe urban areas ante-pandemic that would predictably become worse during the pandemic. This problem might also apply to some who live in an suburban area where everyone remained clueless and in denial until it was too late to prepare.

Before I share the solution we came up with, let me say that I would not give up on my family, friends, and neighbors as yet. As said, there is still time for them to come around especially since they have you to guide them. Since you have been there and done that, if conditions change for them and they decide they better prepare and join your PSG, you will be able to show them the most efficient way forward.

The solution we thought most reasonable for people living in an undefensible urban environment is to rent some land no further than 2 hours drive away. Don’t freak out until you hear the whole idea.

The ideal situation would be to rent an old farm in the middle of nowhere that had a big house, a working sweet water well, and trees that could be cut for firewood.

The next best and less expensive would be leasing a wooded area from a landowner for “hunting and camping”. Landowners commonly do this and the rent is cheep. In this case though the land is unimproved and would require you to make some investments in the property before you could live reasonably on it during the pandemic.

It would be nice to have a 1-year lease that would automatically renew unless either party gave notice to the contrary. Once the land is secured and you had a good idea of the resources it had, you would be able to estimate how large a PSG it would support. The next step would be to begin forming the group. While you would still be relying on your family and friends as the natural members of your group, you would now be in a position to attract members that were in the same boat you are in with respect to their present neighborhoods but who lived elsewhere, even in adjacent cities. Word gets around and pretty soon, you have good group put together.

The leased property will need to be improved to accommodate the PSG. This might mean roughing out some camping areas, identifying where you will obtain you water, and identifying good locations for a PSG community garden. A lot will depend on how the landlord feels about all this. He may have no problem with you doing some of this work, even getting a farmer nearby to plow up the garden. Once the pandemic starts, it won’t make much difference what he thinks, it is unlikely that a court would evict you and the PSG from the property, especially one composed of families with children. The sheriff will have bigger fish to fry anyway and as long as everyone behaves himself or herself. I doubt anyone will care what you do until after the pandemic is over. Then you won’t care either.

I realize that this proposition sounds expensive and true there will be costs to consider but maybe not as high as you might think. These properties go vacant most of the time and landlords are often delighted to get a little income from them. You will need to find out what the going rates for “hunting and fishing” leases are in the area you will be looking into. The same goes for renting an old farm. Don’t expect a nice cozy old farmhouse. The ones I’ve lived in had no insulation and were cold in the winter and hot in the summer.

If you like this idea even if you don’t think you can afford it, start looking now for a place in the country and see what it would cost to lease it. You might be surprised. If you have a few folks in the same boat as you and they have begun preparing, form your PSG now with these being the core members. The cost of the lease, if shared over 3 to 5 people or families will probably be something you all can afford. As the group gets larger, the cost is shared out over more people and pretty soon the cost becomes negligible. Ditto for the cost of improvements on the land. This would mainly amount to labor rather than money. So, give this idea some thought and see if it is something you could do. It might just be a solution.

Good luck,

Grattan Woodson, MD

Another idea, maybe see if you live near another fluwikian, other prepper, who already lives in the country on enough land to support a couple of additional families. That way you will start out dealing with like minded people with a similar adgenda.

On another note - Dr. Woodson are you going to work during a pandemic, and how do you feel about being conscripted against your will? This freightens me as I work in an Intensive Care unit & my hospital has done NOTHING regarding preparedness. I doubt we have PPE’s for more than a week.

 ! Demand that they do or threaten to leave WHEN tshtf; keep asking about leave entitlements etc. !

 Make them listen.

 Don’t they have some sort of Duty of Care?!?

I think if Marshall Law was declared our civil liberties will go right out the window, regardless of whether where I work is stockpiling PPE’s or not, they just want a body in that job (no pun intended). The only consolation I can think of is there will be no manpower available to go and drag in people to work. All the plans I have looked at talk about duty of care to the employees….but thats just paper…not what is happening.

Personally I believe that most places, will have some sort of plan (hey New Orleans did also), but when the rubber meets the road, most plans for diasters, if it is large, end up entirely in the chaos garbage can.TXNurse I agree with you that the plans on paper, wont be of much use if the pandemic is much beyond the 1918 pandemic, and even at that level, I think most places will be so overwelmed it will be a diaster. Before retiring I was in the fire service, and helped businesses make up some diaster plans when I was in the Fire Marshals office, and lots of words on paper, but I always got the feeling, it was something that they had to do, but in the real world, most would be flying by the seat of their pants.

No dis intended Doc W. - your plan is too ambitious for as yet still an unknown. There are so many issues to deal with even if you can find a place to lease, rent or buy. May I sufggest an alternative - Get the local Public Health Officials onboard with our goals. In that spirit I offer the following plan…..

OK Fluwikians - we need your help.

As Pixie pointed out on the TLC thread, there is a major disconnect between the higher Government warnings and the local Public Health Officers who often control our town’s reponses to health concerns - in this case Panflu preparedness.

I found the American Public Health Associations website at http://www.apha.org

They have a Panflu section. It is woefully in need of our expertise.

I also found their Panflu blog… it is here:

http://www.getreadyforflu.blogspot.com/

I have sent a comment already and hopefully they will post it.

Please go there and post your comments. The more they hear from us, the sooner they may respond by telling their members - your local Health Officer - what they need to DO to get everyone they are responsible for ready for Panflu.

 Posted under Rub-a-dub-dub!

Dr W you said “It is early days yet. We remain in de facto WHO Pandemic Alert Phase 4. There is time remaining, frankly more than I thought”.

I have to ask you why you feel this way?

 Talk of washing your hands is scary-if the bird flu is that close its too close. SIP all the way…for it’s the only way.

Average Concerned Mom – at 16:08, thank you! dh says I’m manipulative, with emphasis on the man. :>)

I think I will wait and see what it’s going to be like before I start organizing any neighborhood groups. We will SIP first and then assess the situation. I’m as afraid as anybody of anarchy and communities pulling together will be a solution. I grew up in Texas with neighborhood b-b-q’s, but I don’t imagine it will be anything like that.

Doc W You are spot on. I’ve suggested this concept and have personally implemented it over the course of the past year. Best.

I look upon the potential pandemic flu the same way I look at AIDS. Once everybody understood the AIDS virus, it was readily avoidable. Until the penny dropped, AIDS was the “wrath of God etc etc”.

IF H5N1 goes pandemic, within 3 to 6 months, the general community will have figured H5N1 out as well. The flu is a virus, not a black curse from outer space. I plan to keep my mouth shut in my local community. I did all of my letters to the editor months ago.

WE have monster log trucks barrelling threw my town everyday. I have easily mangaed to avoid them all of these years, without too much thought. I can avoid a flu virus if I put my mind and the mind of my kids, to the task. If we don’t, it is just bad luck or bad judgement

I am not afraid of looters etc- I plan to have a very low profile. Having visited and lived on a few communes in my time, I can tell you “community” is the last thing I am going to be seeking under the circumstances. This is not a hollywood disaster movie. If Rambo charges at this enemy (H5N1) with a grenade launcher in one hand and an Uzi in the other, he won’t get 10 feet before he is shot down, stone cold dead.

After 6 months or so of pandemic, during a lull, would be a good time to be seeking out others. People who have managed to survive the first 6 months of a pandemic would have some real skills- and will have proved it.

(The APHA, website sure does need work! Drop this heading -didn’t even match the points under it! “PREVENTING PANDEMIC FLU:”

Only tells people to go the federal link. The Flu Wiki current cases/countries/cfr could sure go on that page. They could at least have repeated the pandemicflu.gov headings about disruptions to basic services; the ones that use words like “difficult” or “impossible” and that advise preparation.)

Didn’t sleep well enough last night…(wanders off, mumbling to self)

Why didn’t the APHA put this where the public will see it? http://www.apha.org/preparedness/flu_pg_fact_pan.htm

(now, I have to go print more stuff out at the library, -And the discussions on the Wiki about 2% cfr would kill as many children as die in 2 normal decades- so the town can see it before our “pandemic forum” Hm, and why isn’t that APHA page on our town website?) (stares into empty coffee cup)

“Reader – at 01:05 I think I will wait and see what it’s going to be like before I start organizing any neighborhood groups. We will SIP first and then assess the situation. I’m as afraid as anybody of anarchy and communities pulling together will be a solution. I grew up in Texas with neighborhood b-b-q’s, but I don’t imagine it will be anything like that. “

Sounds like my plan. SIP first, then work with the survivors.

Closed for length and continued here