Time for a new thread. Number 5 was getting long. Here’s the original:
13 August 2006 On the fence PPF3 – at 00:23
A few weeks ago I came up with something called the PPF- Personal Pucker Factor, a rating of how worried I was about the bird flu going Kung Fu on us. It has been modified, changed etc (nicely done I must say) but it sort of dropped off the radar. Things have been extremely busy on here lately and it’s been hard to keep up with all of the news, new faces, new threads, etc. I used to think I had a good idea of how the wiki community was ‘feeling’ but it’s getting harder and harder. I would like to try to reconnect with the mood of the wiki so I am asking for volunteers to share their own PPF. On a scale of 1–10, where do you feel you are now? Where were you last week? Last month? (1 is NO WORRIES AT ALL and 10 is “MSM is going to announce within 24 hours that we need to quarantine”) This might help all of us get a sense for how our ‘neighbors’ are doing. I’ll start: Last month I was at a 4. Last week I was at aiming at a 2 but I am settling at a 3 for now.
By the way, there have been some develpments in the news that have caused me to start climbing again. Back up to a 4, nearly 5. We’ll see how this thing in India and the upcoming flu season play out…
My PPF at the moment is quite high. The confluence of what is going on in India, Indonesia, Papau New Guinea, and this morning Nepal is starting to get me thinking it may be time to call the troops home. I would love to see Tom DVM, Medical Maven, Monotreme, and other regulars commment on this.
And to clarify, I don’t me “The Troops,” as in US forces. I mean “my troops,” as in kids and DH.
The Nepal thing definitely has me moving my PPF up a notch. The fact that people are going so quickly is very alarming and sounds just like 1918. I also didn’t know that Nepal was a suspected “ground zero” for 1918.
Edna Mode – at 12:20
There is not enough evidence to conclude that a pandemic has begun. That, of course, doesn’t mean it hasn’t. My alert level went up after Karo and has not gone down since. No reason for it to. There is a strain of H5N1 that has the ability to go H2H2H with a high CFR. It has been adapting to humans. There is a huge animal reservoir (including at least some mammals). IMO, a very severe pandemic could start at any time. This is why people should be prepped right now. However, we may still have many clusters, perhaps getting progressively bigger, before the pandemic begins. We can’t get anxious every time this happens. It’s just too emotionally draining. I’m still looking for hospitals going down as my indication that a pandemic has started. Once that happens, it’s time to bugout if you are going to do that or make whatever final preps you are going to make if you plan to SIP.
I do think it’s good that people are watching the various “pots”. One of these days, one or more is going to boil over and we are all counting on our fellow Fluwikians to give us a heads up.
Thanks Monotreme for the guidance. I appreciate it. My preps are done. The only things left are icing on the cake, which we could well do without if push came to shove. It sounds to me like what you are saying is that these geographically expanding events are going to be the “New Normal” for a while before the TSreallyHTF. Is that an accurate interpretation? The only big question I have for you, Monotreme, is this: Don’t you think by the time hospitals are crashing overseas that panflu will already be on the doorstep of the outlying countries (outlying from ground zero)?
‘’From PPF V thread: But that 9/11 thng was totally unique for me, the compulsive preps immediately beforehand and then the only prediction that I have ever made to my brother or to anybody else like that.
Medical Maven: I absolutely believe you should listen to your instincts. They are more often right than not. Minor example: Literally an hour ago I was stacking wood with DH and DS, who is 8. I was out front loading the wheelbarrow. They were out back stacking. As I was loading I had the thought, “I hope DS doesn’t get any dust or chips in his eyes.” I was going to talk to him about it when I brought the wheelbarrow load back to them. About 10 seconds after having that thought, DS comes around the corner of the house calling to me to help him because he had something in his eye. I obviously was having the thought at the precise moment he was getting something in his eye. People are connected in ways we can’t even begin to fathom.
Hmm, perhaps this explains my compulsion this week to finish a bathroom tiling project, including a new floor drain.
:−0
Sorry, that was me from the last thread
Edna Mode – at 12:43
hese geographically expanding events are going to be the “New Normal” for a while before the TSreallyHTF. Is that an accurate interpretation?
Yes, that’s what I think.
Don’t you think by the time hospitals are crashing overseas that panflu will already be on the doorstep of the outlying countries (outlying from ground zero)
It depends. If I lived in Indonesia, I’d bug out right now. If the pandemic begins in a small village, we probably won’t know about it for a while. OTOH, it probably won’t spread very fast from there. Once it gets into any major city, we will know about it pretty fast. The downside is that it will spread to other major cities pretty fast. I think it’s possible it will be in the US before we realize the pandemic has started. But if so, the number infected will probably very low. I think we will know the pandemic has started before our individual risks are very high (for North Americans). But I also think the window for completing bugout or final preps will very narrow. I would not count on having more than 48 hours before travel restrictions are imposed at the state level, and perhaps less than that.
TomDVM darlin…are you shopping yet? Get thee to the nearest food warehouse and take care of business.
Monotreme – at 13:37 If I lived in Indonesia, I’d bug out right now…Once it gets into any major city, we will know about it pretty fast. The downside is that it will spread to other major cities pretty fast….
Thank you for being so honest and direct about this. I have to say I don’t think in my family’s case that we can afford to wait for hospitals to collapse overseas. Our community is an hour from Logan. 20 minutes from another large regional airport that is a frequent alternative to Logan. Many locals, including many of my children’s classmate’s parents, travel internationally every week. I’m not pulling the plug yet…
Along another vein, in an attempt to balance reactions, I looked up info on past dengue/chik outbreaks in India and found this on the WHO site. http://tinyurl.com/slr4g
Haven’t had time to digest it in the context of the current situation, but I thought people might want to look at it.
My PPF is done. I am now looking beyond all of this. I can see my wife and child and I having a great time in the park on a beautiful spring day. (They are in uncontrollable laughter from the frisbee hitting my head). 8-D
GOOD FOR YOU, JWB! We all need to be reminded to live for today, rather than be totally fixated on tomorrow when things such as beautiful spring days playing in the park may not be so easy to come by. LIVE, don’t just prep or you may just prep your life away!
The notion that living for today and prepping for tomorrow are mutally exclusive is a fallacy. Simultaneously prepping and playing hard are possible.
All prep and all play makes Goju a happy camper
I agree with the above comments. It important to keep our lives in prospective more so now. It’s hard sometimes not to get carried away by all of this, and letting it dominate your life. Then someone calls you back, and helps to put you back on track. it’s good that we all remind each other from time to time, to still play, smile, laught, enjoy our families. I must get back to what I was doing before I discovered you wonderful people, and that’s my writing. It’s been bothering me, that I have replace this with my passion, and hopefully my dream come true. Just trying to keep things in prospective for myself. I like Goju’s motto, and I’m going to try to balance both. (I need 30 hour days, instead of 24!)
Ok, i am back up again. Like many on this forum I vacillate between 4 and 8, not much between. I am still living this double life, where i pretend in my outside life that nothing is wrong, but secretly panic at home. I do get worse when I watch the news or spend too much time here, and I’m am just paralyzed with inaction much of the time. I know in my gut that something is coming and to sell my house and move out, but I was wrong on y2k, so i don’t trust my gut.
My problem is if we move out, we really won’t have any work (and we’re already in deadsville…in real estate and construction field…so slow, that i can’t keep up the preps, and have been using some-thank god they were there!) and I don’t want to take my kids out of their school, and with a major roadwork project starting in the spring, I think that it would be impractical to think that we could commute. What bumped me up this morning was this link below. In conjunction with Petticoat Junctions observations about activity at bushs tx ranch, on part V of this thread, I’m am really concerned about the “watch what they do, not as they say”. Maybe I’m spending too much time with my tinfoil hat on, but it did seemlie odd timing. Thanks for the free therapy session ;) !
seemlie = *seems like
preppiechick – at 11:13
Oh that was a rich one. LOL. I’d be pretty skeptical about this report. : )
preppiechick-this is odd, and I don’t have a good feeling about it AT ALL. I also go through spells of just being almost paralyzed in inactivity,-I just want to keep checking the wiki, but I have got to get going now….Thanks for above info even if it did raise the ppf……
green mom- I agree, that’s why I posted it. Ihave also been reading the rumors thread- put that together with this and it is all too coincidental. I think I will repost my comment on that thread, too- maybe someone can verify from a msm site.
I dont know what I would have done if I lived in Thailand.. But lets imagine living a good life there, why go somewhere else? After all we are talking about a pandemic right. And that means It will eventualy get everywhere.. The only advantage I can think of beeing in Europe or the US would be to have a few hasty weeks of preparing.. But lets look at the diferneces on sociity. What culture will have the largest impact? The west with is population not used to catastrophies, deaths and deasese? Or indonesia who realy have taken its toll the latest years. Which socity will stop the distubution of food, water etc beacuse of fear, panic, malfunctioning rationaliced systems etc? My guess is that Indo will handle this much better than any rich western country in the long run.
hmmm .. maybe we should all move over there.. We do after all have plenty of translators in our forum that knows local streetnames, names of vilages , where hospitals are etc. better than anyone ;-)
Everyone needs to see the “Stop Cutting Bait” discussion. It was started by Dr. Grattan Woodson. He feels that the WHO should announce stage 4 and he has encouraged us to get ready while supplies are still available. I remain at a PPF of 9.
Dr. Dave
Exactly!! And this was the point I was trying to make yesterday, when I posted on the Indonesia thread, that I found something “odd”, which was the numbers. There is something that doesn’t make any sense to me, and I mean that in a bad way. I wasn’t trying to debunk this, only to say, it is my belief that there is more going on here, than we are told. It is not unlike that government to surpress vital imformation for various reasons. This is their practice, always has been. It is my silent belief that this already has went H2H, but as I was stating the numbers are in conflict, with the panic of the situation over there.
If I want to be honest with myself, I would have to put my PPF at 9 also, but to keep my sanity, I won’t be so honest, and still hold at a strong 3.
cottontop – at 09:29 “…It is not unlike that government to surpress vital imformation for various reasons….”
It would probably not be unlike the government to suppress viral information either. (I simply couldn’t resist :) Ha Ha)
I agree! There is just something really “fowl smelling” going on here. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it’s bird flu, H2H.
You guys are making me laugh this morning-definatly a good thing! I wanted to thank everyone for their kind thoughts and good wishes this last week when I was having such a stressful time. My ppf regarding flu is still up there-probably an 8 at this point, but Ive made good progress in getting the stress in other areas in my life down. Ironically enough, the flu has helped! I think to myself, Ok we’re facing this bleakly grim prospect of pandemic flu and I’m letting a wonky co-worker get to me? So not worth it. Ive arranged to do as much work as possible at home, and I’m avoiding this person as much as possible-to the point of having someone else record meetings so we don’t have to be in the same place. I’m hoping these avoidance tactics will work, if not, I’ll leave. I just don’t chose to waste my energy trying to deal with a toxic destructive person-I need that energy to deal with a toxic destructive virus! I need to keep my spirits and energy up because I percieve we have a very rough road ahead of us!
Thanks again, everyone for your support!
Green Mom- a thanks goes out to you too. You have also been supportive, and have gave encouraging words. It is hard at times to deal with just life in general, never mind a global monster. I’ve had to regroup myself, and doing better. We all get grumpy, and low sometimes, and you see that. Thanks. (raises coffe cup)
My PPF is still rising, esp with the odd circulating undiagnosed diseases and posts from Dr Woodson’s and anon’s spouse. Oddly, I can deal with that, almost as an objective observer (dissociation is a wonderful thing, lol).
What is more difficult is trying to keep it from turning into anxiety (hasn’t yet, but only because of a concerted effort on my part not to let it) over not being able to do anything to assuage it. (What a post-modern analysis, lol) I *want* to finish prepping like Dr Woodson suggests, and would spend the next week day and night doing it, I just haven’t found a way on our budget (or at least enough to cover a family of six).
I was in the aisle of a store yesterday, having to decide how many of the clearance power bars (only 15 cents each!) I could get (ten, btw) and whether or not I could get two more cans of vienna sausage at 2/84 cents (I did, but only after scrounging for change in the bottom of my purse and putting a couple of power bars back). My preps last night consisted of rolling plastic grocery sacks into groups of 25 to use in the emergency bucket/toilet…silly but the best I could do. At least it was something, right?
The ‘extra’ right now is going to pay for a portable nebulizer for one of the girls (who is on a round of Prednisone right now…I keep thinking, if one small bout of a low-level upper respiratory crud knocked her asthma into full flight, what would PF do? Not a happy thought.)
I still haven’t been able to afford any kind of water purifier or the extra cost of more Rx meds (though I think a dr friend who is going to help me with some samples on a one-time basis). I have 4–5 mo. of food set back so far but if the grid goes down and I lose the rice, beans, cornmeal, etc that will put a definite bite into the storehouse; I’m only just now able to add a very few prepackaged types things here and there.
I got two rechargable lanterns and a crank radio for my bday, but other than that batteries are expensive and it’s hard to add to the stash (I am, it’s just very slow going). We’re looking at generators but no way to afford one right now (even if we knew anything about them, which we don’t) so if the grid does go down, our options are minimal.
I try to look at everything I *have* been able to accomplish and stay positive about being ahead of where we were. And I hope this doesn’t come across as whining, because that isn’t really how I feel, but I read the threads and look at our four girls and get so frustrated. Dh is, too; he takes this *very* seriously and I know it’s a stress for him to feel like he’s not providing for his family to the level he wants to (and after the whole blood pressure thing last week, I am trying very hard to keep stressful things to a minimum for him, so he doesn’t realize the extent of my own stress in this area).
Sorry for the PPF vent but like I said, I don’t really want to burden dh more and had to say something to someone. Must get back to unhappy teething toddler now…no more time/energy to waste on these esoteric concerns, I suppose. ;o)
Petticoat Junction- you have my sympathy with the teething toddler. Mine are 13 and 4, so I’m done!
I’ve gotten in kinda late on this, and have really had no idea of the full magintude this could cause, and the prepping that goes along with it. (much more than preparing for natural disaster, ect.) we are fortunate to have the generator, and two kersone heaters, first and foremost. We couldn’t find one here now if we wanted to. people from buffalo are coming up here, Watertown, and have cleaned us out of generators. We are on a very tight budget, tight being an understatement. I do the very best I can for prepping, and don’t put any pressure on myself because we can’t afford this or that. Have learned how to be resourceful. Every item I pick up I feel that I have accomplished something, and I ‘m one step closer to my goal. My PPF will go up through the roof if I see others in the store buying what is percieved as prepping stuff. I always look in the carts, for some strange reason. And I think we here use this place to vent sometimes, because everybody home is tired of hearing us go on and on. At least WE understand.
Good luck with toddler.
I’m up to a 7 from 6.5. That’s as puckered as I have ever been, for reference.
I’m past puckered and resigned to the coming Pandemic. Now I’m playing a rather dicey game of deciding which prep items on my wish list I should get in the short term and which should be put off. Optimism for me means hoping that I live to regret some of my decisions.
I never assigned a PPF number before, but I am getting nervous. Watching that great Dept. of Ed webcast just sent me through the roof. It wasn’t actually alarming given what I think could happen; but hearing officials talk about a pandemic and not clarifying “of course, it will probably be mild, but just in case”…taking things very seriously — suddenly made me finally realize this wasn’t a bunch of nuts on the internet egging each other on. Well, maybe we are egging the Dept. of Education on. (-:
But my factor is also up because I am percieving the enormity of it all, and feeling like I can’t afford all the prepartion and I want to have, and realizing we will have to leave the DC suburbs quickly if something happens, especially this year. That has added a whole ‘nother layer of uncertainty.
Like HBB, I’m past the puckering part and am waiting for it to happen.
I have been feeling a little blah about the whole thing. I don’t know how to describe it. then Dr. Woodson’s link to his book on amazon really turned me off. I just wish he hadn’t done that, it just sticks in my caw a little. Part of it is resignation that it will happen, just want to get it over with. The past 2 years have been a time of major turmoil for me (not related to flu) and this is just the icing on the cake. I guess PPF is a 5.
I feel like Noah, loading the last animals on board the ark (making the last preps). When complete the rains will start.
Oremus – at 14:50
And then it truly will be time to say, “Let Us Pray”.
I tend to hover between 5 and 7. Yet beneath it all I have this running through my mind: I’ve survived natural disasters, a child seriously injured during combat, and nearly dying during a medical procedure. I’ll survive this, too, and so will my family. I’m a survivor.
That doesn’t mean that I won’t whine and bitch about how miserable/unhappy I am while surviving, though.<grin>
I found bags of tealights at Walmart (fifty for 3.99 I think). A couple bags of those made me feel better about lighting. Some camping stores sell tiny lanterns that hold a tea light. (also cheap).
Generator? Not worth the dollars, the danger or the headaches for all of us on a budget. Expensive to buy, you have to buy and store fuel, you either have to be very sharp with your electricity skills (NO errors) or hire an electrician — then the da… thing roars when it’s on. Think Amish instead. Lots of quilts, long underwear and wool socks. All can be recycled to the next kid/cleaning rag box.
I was pulling back to a level five until the Ed. gov video release. Now maybe a 7
amen texas Rose!
HBB at 12:19
“Now I’m playing a rather dicey game of deciding which prep items on my wish list I should get in the short term and which should be put off.”
That’s exactly what’s causing me to lose sleep. Some days I think I’ll just take the plunge and buy everything that’s left on the list and be done with it, but so far I just haven’t been able to do it. I know that anything to do with water and heat/cooking are top of the list. Food is taken care of. Some water. Lighting. Any advice??? Kick in the pants???
Please let the drizzle stay slow…I’m not ready yet…
Trying to be ready, but hubby’s business was a little slow this summer, and we sort of took a bite out of our preps. Trying to get back where we’d really like to be for our two little boys, but it’a little slow going. Need another month…no heavy rain yet, please! :-)
PPF - 6
I was pulling back to a level five until the Ed. gov video release. Now maybe a 7
When was that video? I totally missed that. Can I still view it?
Is there a link somewhere to the video? Thx!
Oremus – at 14:50 I feel like Noah, loading the last animals on board the ark (making the last preps). When complete the rains will start.
It’s already drizzling my friend.
Niah – at 15:37
Did you see my post at 15:19?
I did but it just disappeared. That’s why I reposted it at 15:47.
We must be getting a lot of traffic today.
the department of education webcast link can be found on the wiki home page under tip of the day.
But I think GraceRN posted a link to just the audio which worked better for me. See the thread about the Dept. of Ed broadcast. Her link was on a great New Hapshipe web site about pandemic flu preparations - also check that out!
(I’ll post actual links if I can — I’m CANNING! — and caring for 2 extremely whiny children.)
JWB at 15:53 I’ve been having trouble posting/connecting to the threads. thought it was just me.
I CAN”T TAKE IT ANYMORE!
Last night I dreamt I was reading the fluwike. It was a news thread on either India or Indonesia. I don’t know which, all I got was a IND thread. Bad news about it starting.
OK fine. Silly dream.
Just now, for the hell of it, I went to Microsoft Word and typed in IND (CAPITAL LETTERS).
If you got your tinfoil hat on you know where I going with this.
Highlight IND and change the font to wingdings.
What does that look like to you?
(and where do wingdings come from? Chickens!)
JWB – at 16:08
LOL. You need to take a loooooooooong vacation from the wiki.
HBB at 12:19
“Now I’m playing a rather dicey game of deciding which prep items on my wish list I should get in the short term and which should be put off.”
That’s exactly what’s causing me to lose sleep. Some days I think I’ll just take the plunge and buy everything that’s left on the list and be done with it, but so far I just haven’t been able to do it. I know that anything to do with water and heat/cooking are top of the list. Food is taken care of. Some water. Lighting. Any advice??? Kick in the pants???
WATER first, and a way to purify more
Shelter/heat second, especially if you live where it’s cold
FOOD third, and a way to cook it.
Every thing else past that point is gravy.
Petticoat Junction, if you have 3 or 4 months of food for your family, that is really good. That puts you about 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 months ahead of most families on the planet.
JWB at 16:08
It is October 18 after all;)
OKbirdwatcher – at 16:34
Yes I know. I went to Sam’s a lunchtime today for one more big buy. Got the usually “Sir, if you are going to buy in bulk like that, you might want to look into a Premier membership.”
(Yeah, whatever).
After reading the news coming out of India, I think I’ll be stopping at Sam’s again tonight.
JWB – at 15:53
I DID see it! :) My post was in response to yours…then after I posted, yours disappeared! Kind of made my post look a little silly…lol
Bird Guano – at 16:25
WATER first, and a way to purify more
Shelter/heat second, especially if you live where it’s cold
FOOD third, and a way to cook it.
Every thing else past that point is gravy.
You are 100% correct, Guano. I sometimes think there might be a “Keeping up withe Jones” effect here on the wiki. I have put my money and effort into low-impact, low-profile preps that will meet the absolute essentials my family needs to survive. The only thing I would add to your list are meds, OTC and Rx if you need them.
Petticoat Junction, You are doing very well by your family to have put back that much food. Focusing on no or low cost preps is a smart way to channel nervous energy. I have a ton of things on my To Do list that don’t cost a penny but take time. It’s a good, solid, rational coping strategy. Pat yourself on the back and feel good that you are doing everything you can. That’s the best any of us can do.
Niah – at 17:00
Good! Whew!
I thought I might have just dreamt it!
JWB- I have thought for a while that it would be a good thing to keep a journal of this outbreak of flu-would it be fantastic if we could find journals dating back to 1917,1918? Besides, for me writing helps keep me centered. So in honor of your dream, I started my pan-flu journal with October 18, 2006 as its first entry.
Lets hope its a very boring journal.
Petticoat Junction – at 09:41
Just read this thread, and am wondering if you have a campstove? You mentioned if the grid went down your beans, rice etc would be off the list. I’ve cooked on propane stoves a lot and some are better than others. Coleman makes two burner camp stoves, a lower grade and higher grade, and there are other brands too. A couple of 5 gallon tanks of propane would last a long, long time. If you can afford a pressure cooker, that cuts cooking time, especially beans, way down, which conserves fuel.
I don’t know if you live out in the country or not, but wood fire cooking is an option - not easy, but an option. I would love to have a wood cookstove but haven’t the room at the moment.
Regarding DH’s BP and stress - one thing that helps us is “Whatever will be, will be - the future’s not ours to see”. That there is divine providence, and we just have to try our best, but ultimately, we are not the supreme controller. If you have done what you can do (and for each person, it’s different), that’s all you can do. Then just rest knowing that God will take care of the rest.
(I was always nervous to use a pressure cooker until a couple of years ago. Now I cook all my beans in it - soak overnight first, and then cook, most cook in 1/2 hour or so.)
JWB – at 16:08 I’m not crazy about your dream. I’m from… INDiana. Would prefer that it not even come here, let alone start here. And I’m from the City of Firsts. We don’t want to be First in this, tho.
mj – at 01:07 North or South Indiana. I am in the south and I know we are toast.
Anon_451 - Kokomo, City of Firsts. Ft Wayne looks good, but here? My hospital, and the other across town are prepping, but … I asked at City Hall and got “the look” and “duh”. Where in the south are you? I have family right at the tricorner of OH/KY/IN.
mj – at 01:17 Tri Corner of IL/KY/IN.
I hit my “Goju” moment today — I’m ready to start talking with friends that aren’t yet prepping despite my “lighter” discussions with them. Rather than overwhelm them, I decided to recommend a “bare bones” approach that they would be more likely to get started on, and then suggest sources for reading further. Here’s what I sent out:
Dear [Name of friends],
As you know, I have been following the news about the potential for an influenza pandemic for about a year now. Unfortunately, the news has become worse, not better, over this time. I now believe that there is early evidence that the pandemic has begun at a low level or will begin this winter.
Because I care a lot about you and your family, I ask that you seriously consider taking some basic steps to prepare for a possible pandemic *right now*. Those steps are:
1. Stock up on nonperishable foods and household supplies — at least 6 weeks’ worth.
Each wave of pandemic flu is expected to take 6–8 weeks to run through a community. I anticipate that schools and public gatherings will be closed by public health orders during each wave. During this time, you can protect yourself best by staying home. In addition, we can expect that there will be food/supply shortages in the stores as people do panic-buying at the last minute.
Please consider including: — Rice, beans, canned soups or meat, baking mixes, canned fruit, your favorite foods — Bottled water, broth, 7-up or ginger ale & juices — Paper products (toilet paper, paper towels, personal hygiene products) — Over-the-counter medications that you use (pain-relievers, etc) — Cleaning products (antibacterial soap, bleach, dish soap)
2. Think about how to get/purify water if our water supply is disrupted, and how to prepare food and stay warm if there are rolling blackouts.
For planning purposes, experts predict that at least 1/3 of the U.S. workforce will be absent (sick or caring for sick family members) during each wave. This may affect energy availability (refineries, power plants, trucking), water treatment (availability of chemicals & power), and the ability of local utilities to quickly handle problems.
The guidelines for water storage are 2 weeks’ of water (2 gallons per person per day). Sources for water are: hot water heater, hot tubs/pools, water storage barrels, and rainwater collection. Ways to purify water include boiling, bleach, iodine and filtering. It takes very little bleach to purify water.
[I gave information on local sources for water filters, food-grade 55-gallon drums previously used for vinegar, siphons & hand-pumps. I described what we’re doing for cooking & heating with interrupted utilities.]
3. Think about taking care of routine medical needs without easy access to a doctor.
One of the first community systems that is expected to be overwhelmed is the medical system. Today (no pandemic, no seasonal flu yet) [our local first-rate hospital] is at 70–80% capacity and has some trouble with nurse staffing. Imagine what will happen when 1/3 of the hospital staffs are absent and 25% of the population of [our state] is sick and showing up at hospitals (which is what [our state] expects for a “moderate” pandemic).
See if you can get at least 3 months’ supply of all prescription medication. Consider getting a seasonal flu shot — they are thought to provide at least some protection against H5N1. Flu shots are available at [name of grocery store] this next weekend.
Think about what supplies you would need to take care of yourselves with a bad virus (fluids to keep hydrated, pain/fever relief, cough expectorant, thermometer, over-the-counter products for intestinal upset, bland foods).
4. Read more about the possibility of pandemic flu. I use the flu wikie discussion forum as my primary source. It has people from around the world, including health professionals and people who scour the news from Asia (where most cases are now). I generally learn the news several days before it hits the mainstream media. Go to: [gave fluwikie link]
For a real eye-opener, read The Great Influenza by John Barry, which is a factual account of the last H5N1 pandemic. I’d be happy to lend you my copy.
My motto is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. If the pandemic doesn’t happen, we are well stocked for food & heat for any emergency (earthquake, ice storm, etc). If the pandemic happens, we can stay at home and reduce our chances of exposure.
As a community, our best bet will be to make sure that as many of us are prepared as possible. Please pass along this information to anyone who has the ability to think ahead, imagine the unthinkable, and do something about it.
AlohaOR,
Great letter! I think I will use it too. Thank you.
FYI - the pan flu of 1918 (and therefor the subject of John Barry’s book) was not H5N1.
: )
Anon- 451 I live fairly close to the KY/IL/IN triangle-maybe a three hours drive. Why do you say this area is toast? I know Louisville was hit pretty hard in 1918, and I have some fears for it now. Are you thinking anything in specific?
Petticaot Junction-reading your post about the energy bars and scrounging change really hits home. I have soooooo been there-heck I’m still there!
Green Mom Confession time: Someone on another post sometime ago (Ive forgotten who/what/when/ now) mentioned oh so causually that he could easily drop a thousand bucks on preps and not feel it. For a while I was just soooo consumed with envy and some yes I’ll admit it resentment. (Green Mom hangs her head in shame) I would so love it if I had a grand to spend on preps “without feeling it” All my preps have been carefully bought, many of them BOGO type items a little at a time. I too have spent birthday money on preps, and bought prep items for birthday gifts. But I’m coming to a conclusion that while yes Id love a basement full of preps maybe the best prepping is TIME spent learning, doing, researching. I worry about folks who cannot clean/sanitize their homes without prepackaged wipes and Swiffers, who can’t cook without a microwave. What if down the road, during a pandemic, The government does get its act together and hands out supplies and folks open the cartons and theres a jug of vinegar and a bottle of bleach for sanitation and dry beans and rice for food. A lot of people are going to be hungry even with food supplies because they won’t know how to use those supplies.
I am greatly encouraged by someone elses comment-monotreme maybe? (again, I can’t remember, sorry folks, seem to have misplaced my brain) that s/he thought the cfr in families where one parent was home all the time would go down signicantly-half or maybe more-that made me feel so much better. I know that in those dark-night-of- the-soul hours (two a.m. for me) and those frustating dig in the bottom of the purse moments and those anxious asthma times and those boring roll up the plastic bags mornings, it seems so much like we’re not getting anywhere but we really are.
Green Mom - You put prepping in perspective. We all do what we can do when we can. I was with you with the envy and resentment. (hang my head next to yours) But I’m also pleased that I’ve done so much, and am now able to remember to get BOGO with the GO for a neighbor. Not much, but a can or two will help. And I remember most of all to give thanks that I’ve got what I’ve got (microwave included)and that the best thing I’ve had and still have, hopefully, is time to prep and spend with family. I admire those with time to do so much for us. The folks on here are making the biggest difference to us all. Without them I would not be able to do (or know to do) what I have. This group raises & then lowers my PPF. I’m running about a 7 in the mornings (rested) and close to 9 in the evenings when I read/hear the news. More time would be nice, I’m praying for TSTHF not till after new years. But I don’t like what I read lately.
Green Mom – at 09:04 “hands out supplies and folks open the cartons and theres a jug of vinegar and a bottle of bleach”
Yes, I still remember the images from Katrina of a lady sitting on a plastic Coleman rolling water cooler in the rain complaining that the goverment was doing nothing, “they” hadn’t even given them any water.
…. you can lead a horse to water but…..
Green Mom:
Unlike you I don’t have a family to prep for, but I remember the thousand dollar comment. I’ve come to the conclusion some of the extreme preppers dropping the larger sums of cash are trying to eat very similiar to what their current standard is. Buy the basics as you are and then just do one or two comfort preps. To disinfect all you need is vinegar, bleach and water, anything else is gloss. I figure I may suffer more cause I don’t have solar panels or generators, but if I have rice, beans, olive oil and some fruit juice I will live. There will come a moment when all those plastic cards will no longer work, because big business has figured out when the red flag starts up the pole people will charge thousands of dollars, and may not be able to pay it back. I think those cards will be inactivated before the flag reaches the top of the pole.
This might be a tip you can use. On current events the flu clinic they had a discussion a while back on placing UVlights in attics. Germicidal lamps are harmful to skin and eyes but you can buy googles. The light kills mold spores, virus etc and is listed in allergy studies as being very helpful with asthma. It seemed like a cheap alternative for keeping the virus out of your house and it’s not expensive. You buy UVC bulbs with 254 nanometers and they fit into common flourescent fixtures of all sizes and you can rig them up to battery power. The key is keeping eyes and skin protected while you’re setting it up and while you check it when the light is on. Battery power is needed for when the grid goes down. Go there and search germicidal lamps. Maybe this is a can do your husband can help with because it might just slow down some of those asthma attacks you mention. Maybe someone else on flu wicki has them and can offer helpful suggestions. If I had kids with asthma I would definetly try this after reading the articles on it. I’m waiting for my bulbs to arrive in mail.
Leo 7. Maybe to prep, all we need to do is carry a few extra pounds…they don’t call it a ‘spare tire’ for nothing.
Primitive man lived like a wolf…intermittent ravenous feasts. Every other animal in the world gains weight seasonally; increasing weight in the summer to prevent starvation in the winter.
Just because we haven’t had a period of food shortages in our lifetimes does not mean that we can’t or won’t at some point in the near future…all we need is an abnormally bad growing season.
Maybe, we should all have our feast now and we will be able to withstand pandemic food shortage…no worse for the wear other than a few hunger pains.
Comments?
Leo7: There will come a moment when all those plastic cards will no longer work, because big business has figured out when the red flag starts up the pole people will charge thousands of dollars, and may not be able to pay it back. I think those cards will be inactivated before the flag reaches the top of the pole.
Count on it.
The software is already in place.
ANYTHING that deviates from the normal purchasing pattern is flagged.
It’s a simple matter to cap all limits if the computer recognizes a widespread pattern as the flag goes up.
Yet another reason why just-in-time prepping is a fallacy.
Tom DVM – at 13:35 ouch Tom, but you’re right….I’ve put on weight this month alone, from depression issues, and I did the same last month and I’d worked so hard to get my weight down, but I’d stalled. Just today I ran one of those BIG containers full of water to drink all day to start again to get this weight off — I don’t want to have to rely on a spare tire during a pandemic! :-)
I don’t prep as much as the rest of you do, but I do things as if I were in an emergency situation. I think a bit every day of what it might be like and I improvise. Am not the worrying kind. I can’t see stressing myself with worry before the event,as we may just not get a pandemic in our lifetime. Something is happening around the world with climate change and the mosquitoes and I don’t want to be blindsided. With the thousands who die in India, I doubt if they are really doing autoposies or testing. The earth is overladen with people, who is expendabel? All of us.So it’s up to everyone to puzzle this out as best they can. Prior to my becoming aware of the avian flu, the world seemed to be going along normally. Tuning into this threat has made me aware of the incredable changes in the world of virology that somehow missed my attention for the last 10 years. It is a changed world while I went about my day to day life. The internet has educated me beyond what I used to pick up in the papers or in reading and in talking to others. The entire world picture is evolving, and is changing at breakneck speed., even as the virus we have been concentrating on seems to be taking its time. I feel like Rip van Winkle who woke after a long nap of decades. Even the Bible Study class I began to take at the Episcopalian church is concentrating on the earth. Air, water and so one. They showed the film “The Inconvenient Truth” last week, much to the dismay of one traditional lady who said “I thought this was supposed to be Bible study.” I am fascignated by what is happening . Sooner or later everyone will be waking up.Perhaps not to the Avian flu, but to evolutionary changes in one of the viruses., which eventually will alter their lives forever.
Hi I’m workin on it. Yes, I have gained probably twenty pounds since April…I have been a farmer or worked with farmers all of my life…sort of.
This is farmers logic. You have to have something in reserve for a ‘rainy day’. Nature’s way to stop you from starving to death is to give you the extra required…and without fat we would die because it acts to cushion organs in the case or traumatic insult.
When I played hockey, I would lose three pounds daily…I would always lose the battle and chronically lose weight during the hockey season.
If one of us gets the seasonal flu…we could easily lose a couple of pounds a day for ten days would be twenty pounds.
I would like to see one of those skinny actresses or models after another twenty pounds is taken off.
I think it is difficult to fight nature and I rarely see a heavy person in old age…so this weight naturally is decreased in late middle age.
I don’t know if that helps but I’m sure you are in good company…you don’t have a lot of choice with nature…you might be able to direct things a little bit but she is difficult to ignore. /:0)
I’m-workin’-on-it – at 13:37
Maybe a full sized spare is bad, but a mini spare is good. 8^)
Tom DVM - 13:35 Maybe to prep, all we need to do is carry a few extra pounds…
LOL! My husband and I were talking about this just the other day - and we have decided that we should be well prepared. (If we assume the following: You burn 3500 calories to lose 1 pound body weight; in approximately 2 days of activity you would burn 1 pound [assuming no food ration]; therefore each pound you are overweight would be equal to 2 days of food rations.) Of course this formula is a guestimate - people vary in basal metabolic rates (due to gender, muscle mass and other factors), and it would be dependant on activity level as well. It’s just a fun idea to play around with.
Just don’t prep this way *too* much - bigger clothes mean less money on other prep items, and we really don’t want to be looking at heart attacks during pandemic time. (haha)
Of course, this is just a fun little thought exercise - I mean no harm, it’s a good backup but I wouldn’t bank on it :)
If it ever degrades to cannibalism, the fat ones are easier to catch. 8^)
Oremus. Okay, you’ve got me…I usually look at an issue from all angles…missed this one…oh well!!
Tom DVM
so you are prepping……
DennisC. Do I have to tell the whole truth…okay the answer is no…
…but I have built up a nice food reserve which like a chipmunk, I carry around with me…does that count?
I always shop on Christmas Eve. One time I was late and bought my wife speakers for our stereo…I thought it was a really nice present and expensive too…she was not enthralled with my choice.
Truth be told, I hate shopping…easy to procrastinate about.
Julianna – at 13:58 Tom DVM - 13:35
Wow! Little did I know I was already prepped for three months! Silver lining to pandmeic: I’ll get back to my pre-pregnancy weight in no time. Good thing. The offspring are almost old enough to get driving permits!
TOM DVM:
You’re right a few extra will tide you over…but people carrying extra usually have unregulated appetities (eating without hunger). I took my spare tire off-and I ‘m not letting it come back. Imagine your car in a river and your fat ass can’t make it through the door window while the door is stuck! Unless you got a bat in the car to take out the front windshield it’s crying time. Extra weight has it’s negative side—see? I’m prepped with basics only I already know I will be expected to drive from home to hospital, because there is no where to sleep us. Primitve man was also nomadic—disease strikes the villaged moved on. Last week a call from the ED went out we need every able bodied man to come down. In the ED was a man on a huge door like from a church. He was brought in the back of a truck, couldn’t fit in the ambulance. I heard later he weighed over 600 pounds. Dude couldn’t even fit on the tables in x-ray. Very disturbing.
Bird guano: Thanks for the card confirmation, its good to know.
AlohaOR – at 01:31
“I hit my “Goju” moment today”
WOW - I have a “realization” named after me?
Who woulda thunk?
Green Mom – at 00:28
I’m honored! (blushing)
Yes, let it be a non eventful journal.
mj – at 01:07 Would prefer that it not even come here, let alone start here.
I second.
Bird Guano at 13:36
Appreciate the info on the cards. Had not even crossed my mind. Even though I’ve been prepping since early April, mostly non-stop and continue to do so, DH and I had discussed the idea of him having a list in his vehicle of last-minute items that would be his responsibility to pick up if he ever gets a call saying “This is it.” Whatever it costs, doesn’t matter - put it on the credit card if you have to. We can always pay it back:-? He would make his run while I was making my run in a another direction for different things. We do have cards with no pre-set limits and charges do vary greatly at times, but I think what you’re saying is if there is a widespread (across the country) spike in large charges they could still shut us all down. Looks like we might need to tweak the idea:)
Leo7 at 13:19 -
Thanks to you as well for the comment on the plastic cards. Yet another reason to git’er done and git’er done now.
I had’nt taken the weight thing into account. Lordy, I can’t afford to loose 20 lbs! That would put my current weight down to 80lbs. I’ve been at this weight for many years, except for two pregencies, and pre-wedding over eating, 19 years ago, when I weighted 125, at 4′10. Yea! Heart bothered me. This really concerns me, as I’ve been focusing on the children and them not loosing weight, (just as thin as I am, but oldest at 13, is 5′3). I hadn’t even thought about myself. Hubby, yea, 20 lbs would be good. How could I keep from loosing weight? I would end up sick just fom the weightloss.
Personally, I think the denial factor that the others will be going through will take some time. But, OTOH, I wouldn’t want to be wrong on that.
The other thing that you have to consider is there may well be a plan in place to put limits, at the store, as soon as it is known. And a Walley World exec lurker may be reading these very words.
cottontop. The point I would make is that if those around you are carrying a little bit of ‘comfort’ weight…then I would expect them not to eat and instead give their food to you…I know that I would do that for my wife and children and your husband will too.
Maybe you should put a few more pounds on him for food security purposes. /:0)
LOL! TomDVM. Cottontop would blow away in three months. Our she could conserve calories as in move slowly, don’t do busy work etc. Cottontop should add some cans of Boost to her preps—it makes some calories.
TomDVM- Excellant! Then when he gives “that look,” I’ll raise my knive and point to the grill” He’ll get the message.
didn’t some one mention canniblism?
Tom DVM
Yes, BF does sound like a “acceptable” way to justify a few, like what, 20 lbs. Unfortunatly there was a recent study that concluded this extra but “not to bad” excess weight increased the chances of cardio vascular disease by 50%. Not good.
hey Leo7- excellant idea. Thanks for the tip. I need more ideas, as I hadn’t realized this would be a concern. That would be typical. during a pandemic stemmed from bird flu, I get sick and die from weightloss! Go figure.
alsoLeo7- I have cousin that I grew up named Leo, and I know your not him, but when ever I see your name, I think of him and his family, so I give a call. He’s 1500 miles from me, so we try to keep in touch. Just wanted you to know.
cottontop - at 16:16
You won’t blow away at 80 lbs. I’m 5′1,” and I didn’t blow away when I weighed 87 ;→.
I think I’d rather stash the food that would put on the twenty lbs. until I’m actually hungry.
Friends - This can’t be said enough. Please PLEASE don’t count on the last minute plastic.
Bird Guano – at 13:36
Leo7: There will come a moment when all those plastic cards will no longer work, because big business has figured out when the red flag starts up the pole people will charge thousands of dollars, and may not be able to pay it back. I think those cards will be inactivated before the flag reaches the top of the pole.
Count on it.
The software is already in place.
ANYTHING that deviates from the normal purchasing pattern is flagged.
It’s a simple matter to cap all limits if the computer recognizes a widespread pattern as the flag goes up.
Yet another reason why just-in-time prepping is a fallacy.
InKy- at 20:28
No, I don’t think I’ll blow away. I think Leo7 was being silly. I just don’t want to become malnurished, and get sick. We all know, when TSHTF, it’s ALL hands on deck to batten down the hatches. And I’ve been thinking about that, stashing the food. The Boost from Leo7 is a very good idea. Supplimental drinks certainly won’t hurt me. We all have different health needs that will have to be thought of and addressed. I never thought of my weight being a disadvantage in this.
Have the PPFs hit a plateau?
on the fence - Plateaus can be nice places to view surroundings. Where you’ve been and where you’re going, not to mention being where you are. I think we rarely tell our PPF when we’re feeling mellow. I’m more likely then to go on Preppers High, or some other thread. However, when things heat up in the news, it gives a way to say YIKES and check in with friends and be calmed by the likes of Monotreme and TomDVM. Then it’s a case of I’m feeling stressed to the max, am I normal? I’ll just check my PPF versus my buddies on the Wikie. Oh, they’re feeling anxious too, so I’m reading the news right. Heads up and play closer attention. And go live life some more. I like the continuety of the thread. JMHO
YEs, things “seem” to be quieting down a bit. Ive been able to get some of my non-wiki life stress down, while also achieving a couple of Flu-wiki goals, so my ppf is coming down. No doubt its just the quiet before the storm, but I’m gonna enjoy while I can!
This article will probably kick your PPF up a notch; at least while you read it. (5 pages).
oremus - pls check your email
I had just built myself a nice little comfort zone there, Oremus, and that article just shot it all to hell.
Is “catocide” a real word?
They can take my kitty when they pry her from my cold dead fingers.
This lull in the news is in my opinion, only a lull. But I am taking full advantage of it. I’m packing me house up everyday, getting more and more accomplished. My preps were the first to be packed 3 weeks ago. I’m not going to read Oremus at 01:44. I need to get into my new home and feel secure again. I’ll be in there December 10th. My PPF went up yesterday to a 6 pushing 7 with the WHO article to urgently step up production of vaccines. I’m at a 5 today again. I am urgently stepping up production of my packing.
Green Mom – at 08:55 Is “catocide” a real word?
The proper term is “felicide.” [Webster’s New Millennium Dictionary of English, Preview Edition (v 0.9.6) Copyright © 2003–2005 Lexico Publishing Group, LLC]
Hi friends, After 3 weeks with a broken computer and a do-nothing computer store I couldn’t wait amy longer and spemd my scarce prepping euro’s on a rental computer- I need my wiki!!! I’ve missed you guys and the wise tips and insights into the evolution of this scourge.
My PPF has been at 3 for some time- I’m as prepped as 2 people in a small city appartment can be (except for a water purifier). Although I feel the urge to raise it to 20 after some of the postings above! I have to read more of the other threads before I can consider myself up-to-date but I can see it going up to 7, easily. This is the first thread I’ve felt like reading- I consider it an important thread. Bt the way, on the fence and leaning, for a while you dropped the leaning. Are you still ;eaning?
Here in the Netherlands the “deep sleep” continues- not a peep in the papers about BF. Logical is you consider that the NL is one of the top 5 chicken-producing nations, and the federal elections are just 2 weeks ahead.
Leo7 as usual your comments are so sharp! I’ll pass on your comments about the plastic cards to my man- our last-moment preps include taking money “out of the wall”. This plan needs revision!
Actually I have to start using PF instaed of BF- its a different species!
Dang it all to hell. Just checking this thread makes my PPF want to creep up. Everytime I see this thread near the top… means somebody has SOMETHING to say about a PPF. Don’t like it at all.
My ppf, ???, I’m prepped as much as I can be for the moment. My office refuses to do anything. I marched into the cfo’s office a couple of weeks ago gave him really great info and he looked at it and he thinks its not really a big deal.
They will not prepare in anyway, I suggested at the very least to have bottles of bleach solution…to wipe things down with, they won’t do it.
I already have my own stuff at my desk. I don’t know what I am going to do. The place is a germ factory now, if one person gets sick it spreads thru the office like a wildfire.
I’m done. I’m tired of fighting the fight for other folks. I sent the pandemic prepardness info to just about every paper in my state…nothing.
I never realized how such a large percentage of my states population is…I can’t find words to express my dissapointment in the State of Iowa.
Every day before PI is a blessing of normality that gives me time to complete plans, organize and practise.
Mine is down after talking to landlord. we are on well,have big tank, and YES, he does have a back up genny ! I still have my water supplies, but hopefully won`t have to use them for quite awhile. No plans here at all, as far as I can find out.
OOPS ! sorry, didn`t change name. I`ll go sit in the corner , and suck my thumb,now.
My PPF is still a high 3. Going to wait and see if WHO raises the alert level. If they do, my PP is go to 6. Ocean2 had a very interesting comment about elections coming up. Man, everything really is politically connected. Doing well with the anxiety. Don’t panic until something is 100% comfired, and we can confirm it here. (unless fluwikie2 decides to go down throwing me into distress!). But, really, that’s how we should look at all of this. I’m VERY proud to be apart of this forum. I’ve checked out others, and all I can say is, we have the cream of the crop!!!
I posted this on the Rumors thread, but it belongs here, too.
This afternoon I had the scariest conversation of my life. It was about the pandemic and it was with someone who has high-level insider information. Here is what happened:
Twice each week I bend the ear of whomever is sitting next to me on the airplane and I talk about the impending pandemic. Often times, the people I sit next to have some measure of infulence in their respective companies, so I press them for their e-mail addresses and I send them electronic versions of a lengthy pandemic preparation document I have written. Well, today I had the good fortune to sit next to the Director of Virology of a major medical center at a major university in the southwestern United States. Needless to say, I took advantage of this situation and we had a lively discourse.
I learned that this virologist’s hospital has been pereparing for a pandemic for several months. They anticipate a 50% infection rate and a 10% case fatality rate. They have decided that when just 1 student is diagnosed with H5N1, the university will shut down everything but its medical center. At that point in time, the staff of the medical center will be required to live on campus. They will not commute. The medical center has enough food and water and generator fuel to support 150% of their current staffing level for three straight months. The National Guard will provide security and crowd control for the medical center.
During our 4-hour flight we discussed many of the real-world scenarios that might unfold. Ultimately, this person and his hospital both understand that 3 months of supplies will not be enough, but they feel they are way ahead of the curve by having done this much.
When I mentioned to him that I feared that the post-pandemic world be like early 19th century conditions, he indicated that early 19th century was a “best-outcome” scenario. He actually fears that our future will be much worse. Although this individual balked at many of my questions, he did acknowledge that he has a stock of suicide pills for himself and his closest friends and relatives.
This, coming from an “insider”, is very disturbing. My PPF, which had been holding at a solid 9, is now just about as close to 10 as you can get.
can you tell us the city this guy works in?
More Dr. dave… tell us more…
My PPF has droped back down to a 5 from an 8 since the situation in India has not developed to the extent that I feared, but that said I am still preping and consider this lull in the action God given time to prepare.
I have been a 7 for months. Watchful waiting. Am now at a 7.5 while waiting for news out of Papua New Guinea sometime next week. If no flu news comes out by next friday I will drop back to my usual 7.
PPF steady 7 (with a spare tire:). TomDVM, I hear ya. Nobody ever understood me “I always put on on weight in summer and lose it in the winter” Holidays? I lose weight. Once the spring thaw starts the pounds start packin’ on again - regardless of activity level. Nature’s way. Still, only range about ten lbs either way for the last 25 yrs, so I’m pretty sure it’s normal.
I don’t understand why so many have high PPF. From the original post a PPF means : 1 is NO WORRIES AT ALL and 10 is “MSM is going to announce within 24 hours that we need to quarantine””.
I just don’t see any move whatever that the WHO or the MSM are anywhere close to saying within 24 hours that we need to quarantine. WHO is still stuck at phase 3. The MSM doesn’t even say we should prepare.
So playing by the original rules, my PPF is quit low.
DennisC – at 23:43 I have been so busy at work my PPF is a negative 3. (What flu???) When I get a chance to check in I remember why I have so much food stocked up
Just kidding folks, but Dennis is right with out clearer signals, all our PPF’s should be quite low. Mine went up to a one over India, it has dropped back to zero.
My sphincter hasn’t stopped twitching since reading Dr Daves post
Anon_451. I don’t think the ppf should be based exclusively on what msm says. It should be based on all sound information resources, includiding this site.
My own take on the PPF was that a 5 meant a 50% chance of a panflu this flu season, while an 8 meant something sooner (the next month or two) and a 3 meant a 30% chance. The “expert” medical opinion cited from a survey cited in another part of FW (from June 2006 volume of Global Public Health, “Expert judgements of pandemic influenza riks”)said a 15% chance of panflu in the next two flu seasons. However, non-medical experts surveyed put the risk higher. My own guess is a 10–20% chance this flu season. (I am not an expert.) It is very difficult to deal intellectually and emotionally with something that is somewhat unlikely but horrible if it happens. If you try to warn people and nothing happens, you are an alarmist. If something does happen, you are marked as someone likely to be prepared with food, etc. The lack of top-level leadership for things like food storage is a depressing though not unexpected abdication of responsibility. It is much more difficult to do it bottom-up.
INFOMASS – at 09:26
Interesting take on PPF. I actually never thought of trying to set a timeframe, although I read the opinions avidly. My (steady) 7 has been acknowledgement of the fact that a pandemic - of some sort - will occur and occur soon enough that I need to prepare now. Being of modest means, like many here, I’ve needed to do what I could when I could, knowing I would not be able to make last minute substantial purchases.
Emotionally I run the gamut, but my pucker factor tells me just to keep on keepin’ on.
I just maintain my steady 2 to 3, fully-prepared and resigned to the inevitability of it near to medium term. I now fine-tune my supplies and my “panflu” emotional and intellectual responses by monitoring and interacting with my fellow fluwikians. Quite a brotherhood. (And sisterhood). : )
Oh, and my PPF will immediately ascend to 10 upon confirmation. Logic can not quite contend with the expected.
Mine has not gone over 0.5… I think its time for me to take a complete break, tuck away the preps I do have and concentrate of everything else that makes life worth living.
diana – at 11:58 “take a complete break”
I think you have the right idea. Family is the most important thing to most of us. One way to look at all this is that life is a gift and we need to make full use of it in whatever time we have. Not to say we should throw caution to the wind, but that we should do whatever good we can while we can.
I am here as much as I am only because I teach on line so I have FW in a separate window for the times I am waiting for files to load. For me FW is an interesting diversion.
Wow! I have been monitoring this site for over a year now and have just relaized how anxiety driven so many of these threads are.
Now, before you all flame away, I have a significant psychology and journalism background and my doctoral thesis was on media influence.
The ups and downs on the fluwiki as well as the public catharsis here is fascinating. There are so many of you whom I’d love to meet and chat with in greater depth.
What is even more intriguing is the swell towards the “rumor” thread when active news stories die down.
I have to say that my PPF has dropped considerably based upon my realization that many here are basing their current PPF on feelings/beliefs/senses etc than on actual, concrete, tangible reasons.
There is definitely a “hive mind” here and I have to inform those who find solace in it that just because many “think/feel, etc.” like you, doesn’t mean they or you are correct.
This may happen, this may not, but you should take care to temper your passion with reason.
: )
Additionally, as a woman and a mother, I am fascinated by how many women on this site identify themselves in their handles as mothers. So far I have not seen one handle that identifies a father/dad and that is so intriguing. I’d love to establish an indepth study of wiki users and try to tease out some of what motivates us all.
Sigh, that would require a big grant and those are very tough to come by…
: )
My PPF was extremely high in the beginning of my journey of knowledge. It has ridden the roller coaster of this site. My self analysis is that my PPF goes down most when I feel that I’m reasonably well prepped (for that day and time considering my unique situation that applies only to me - you each have your own situation) and stays down with that feeling. Realizing I don’t have x or y or z and that they are important raises my PPF. Then I save up, shop, create, find or whatever to solve the problem of x,y or z. Down it goes again. If I believe I have to/want to take care of someone else then it goes up until I collect enough for that added person. And getting someone else to Hear, Believe, and Prep brings my PPF Down. One less to worry about. I realized I have some control. My attitude counts. I can’t prep for those far away. And I will never be ready.
Newsie – at 18:08
Actual, concrete, tangible reasons are why I have a pucker factor at all. H5N1 exists; it is crosing the species barrier into humans; it is killing a lot of the humans it infects. Add in influenza’s tendancy to mutate in strange new ways at the drop of a hat, and that we saw in 1918 what an avian flu pandemic can do, and you’d have to be a lotus eater NOT to pucker at such a potential threat.
As for the swell towards rumors when mainstream articles dry up: Basic human nature. We want to know what’s going on, and in the absense of trustworthy reports, we’ll listen to what others are saying, especially if they can claim information gained from a knowledgable source.
^__^
Newsie, MJ, and F-W,
This is life on the outer edge of the envelope. Flu Wikie has dedicated souls who translate articles; others attend town-hall meetings; some of us distribute paper handouts door to door. We do waht we can. I would like to think that part of what we do is altruism, although much of it is probably survivalism. Ultimately, we all want the latest information so we can make good choices.
We are all a bit jittery because our governments are not forthcoming about the state of things. That, in itself is worrysome.
Do we flock to the news? Yes, we want to see what is heading our way, if only to avoid it.
My PPF has been at 9.5 for the past few weeks because, in a sense, the flu will be here tomorrow and I will not be prepared.
Still at a 6 and holding.
The news release out of India that they successfully deployed a Tamiflu blanket, but didn’t call it that, got my full attention.
As did the revelation (thanks again WHO-the-useless) that the Indian strain is indeed a mutated strain from Turkey, originated in China, and carried on migratory birds.
I’m watching with interest world news, and still living life.
Dr. Dave how do you know our governments are not “forthcoming abou the state of things”? Is this a feeling or do you have first-hand knowledge?
There seems to be an underlying conspiracy current here, i.e. TPTB know more than they’re saying! Bush has bought a ranch in S.A. And plans to fly the coop when TSHTF! and othe such rubbish. I work with the Fed Gov on a regular basis and can tell you that most wikians are better informed than they are.
Many nights, the wiki is like that big, dangerous ball at the circus with motorcycles in it. Everyone is convinced that with all those riders whipping around inside at such insane speeds that they will surely crash and the worst will happen, yet it doesn’t.
To those who will only read the beginning of this post and then post a reply - as too often happens here, read this: I am not saying a pandemic won’t happen. What I am saying is that many anxiety levels here rise and fall based on the hive mind rather than on actual events and that bears considering. In many ways, the wiki functions as “therapy” for many.
Newsie-The hard science of this pending situation is what has riveted my attention. We are indeed “bugs in a blog”, but there is a lot of brain power here not to be so easily dismissed.
Newsie,
You can tell from my postings that I work for a company that provides emergency supplies to the U.S. Federal Government, the U.S. Red Cross, the U.S. military, FEMA, and others. As such, our preps are directed by the Feds. I also have an acquaintence who works in the medical profession who is being directed by the Feds. Both I and my acquaintence have been told to prepare for 3 months, but www.pandemicflu.gov only tells the general public to prepare for two weeks. From this I conclude that the government is not forthcoming.
Newsie: I talk with Chinese officials and can assure you that the news situation from China is tightly controlled. In Indonesia, my knowledge of Bali and some other provinces would suggest that they would be reluctant to have bad publicity for tourism and investment, so denying cases if they exist would not be surprising. (This is confirmed by an ex-student working there.) In terms of the US government, I talked with a FEMA official who is prepped to the hilt with a gun and he thinks it would be useless to tell people to prep adequately. This does not mean there is a widespread coverup, but it does suggest a mindset conducive to it. Finally, there is the conflict of Dr. Nabarro and much WHO PR stuff (though it has changed lately) suggesting that they do bend their message to fit their national sponsors. None of this is conclusive, but it would be naive to think that national governments or the WHO think first in terms of global public health rather than narrower interests, including a desire to preserve credibility if nothing happens. We each have to reach our own conclusions, and certainly there is an element of group therapy on FW, but as they say: “Just because you are paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t out to get you!” I think there is a real danger and that it would be silly not to take some measures against that possibility, though if it is really bad then almost nothing we do would be enough. No wonder people want to talk with each other.
Newsie @ 19:26 and elsewhere. I respectfully disagree with your generalization that “iimany anxiety levels here rise and fall based on the hive mind rather than on actual events…“ In fact, IMO it is somewhat disrespectful of so many who have also expressed several times that they are more than capable of reading and evaluating the posts and still making up their own minds. I am one of the mods on another, totally unrelated board where Rule #1 is to not make sweeping “all of us,” and even “many here” type statements. You have an opinion and the right to express it; however each’‘ of us deserves that same right. I think for myself and do not want to be lumped together with a group — on either side of an issue! Another example, in my mind, of over-generalizing.
Another example, in my mind, of over-generalizing: The MA in my name doesn’t not represent a mother-linked title. It just happens to be my first and last initials. It is not the board name I use else where.
My Fire Department has also been told by the county health director to personally prepare for 3 months of complete self sufficiency. NO vaccine for 8 months minimum.
My county health department’s pandemic information on the web still says a week of food and water for the civilian population and that we’ll all be saved by vaccines.
No hive mind. No BS. FACT.
We were also told to do it NOW. Not to wait, not to draw up plans or allocate budget, but to do it now, Start today (day of the presentation a month ago) each and every one of us on an individual basis for our families.
Emphasis was placed on water, food and operating without electric power and limited fuel.
I’m not calling it a conspiracy. Just a gaping disconnect.
AND also the reason I’m at a solid PPF 6, even though I’m personally prepared.
Errata Note, the last sentence in the first paragraph was a duplicate of the one that began the 2nd paragraph.
No matter.
Newsie’s comments are patronizing and offensive.
I was at 3 but now down to 2. Mainly because there has been no confirmed human cases since Oct 15. My “wild prediction” is that there is about a 25% chance that it will go H2H2H by Feb or March. There is nothing but guesses.
BG - strictly my observations. Not meant to be patronizing. It is obvious here that those that wish to question the hive mind are often ripped to shreds, though all so far have been intelligent and polite.
Newsie – at 20:30 please supply a link for your claim that Bush has purchases a ranch in S.A. and plans to hide there. I saw the earlier claims about Paraguay but nothing about S.A. Such claims should be documented or placed on the rumor thread.
Dennis C - I was refering to Paraguay and and misspoke.
Ma in VA - I refer only to handles with mom/mother vs. Dad/father. I actually thoughjt yours meant you were from MA and now lived in VA. : )
Newsie - I understand your observations. We who have become sensitized to Panflu usually have no one else to “talk” with about it. There are so many aspects to discuss and think about that it becomes obsessive at times. The consequences of a severe Panflu are so great that a tremendous amount of talk time is needed to maintain sanity. i personally use these boards as therapy… as a place to bounce ideas off other like minded individuals hence the hive mind at work. Its a miraculous thing.
There are times we get very freaked out at news… or rumors… or new ideas poster bring up.. its a natural evolution of a discussion involving many people from many viewpoints.
When hard news dries up as it did this week due to the “holiday” it frees us to explore our thoughts rather than actual events. Sometimes these explorations go off in wild directions and people react as if it is real. I have gotten many great suggestions and ideas of my own from these free wheeling discussions.
Goju, thank you. That was a very enlightening post. I agree with you and it was very well said.
: )
The language used to describe your observations is patronizing.
I wouldn’t consider you “ripped to shreds” at all here.
All viewpoints are welcome. Just be prepared to DEFEND them.
Perhaps you can address your stated observation that those of us here at FluWikie are more informed than the Feds on the pandemic issue.
That’s a startling enough statement in and of itself.
Newsie - I also understand your observations, and it’s not as though I haven’t wondered myself if I’m rowing with only one oar. It’s hard to justify the time, energy and expense of prepping when the whole country/world seems to be asleep at the wheel …or views preppers as wacko nutcases. There is another thread here somewhere on this subject.
Yes, there is a hive mentality of sorts on this site, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. I am not one to worry about things normally. I never prepped for Y2K; it wasn’t even on the radar for me. I also figure that if someone tosses a nuke in my general direction, I’m toast, so why bother worrying about it?
I ignored the whole bird flu pandemic subject entirely until I had a series of very scary dreams that made me sit up and take notice. (I have a long history of precognitive dreams, so I have learned not to ignore them.) Only THEN did I start searching for information on the bird flu and the possibility of a flu pandemic, and Google led me to FluWiki a few months ago. This is a great place to get an education on the subject.
I’ve done my background research, and I read what I can every day to keep abreast of new developments. My husband, who worries even less than I do about life-altering events, has also been reading the news and FluWiki, plus other sites. We have both concluded that NOT prepping would be foolish, because the odds are very good that we will experience a pandemic within the next few years. We are prepping for 3 months. If nothing happens, nothing will go to waste, so we really have nothing to lose. On the other hand, we have children and grandchildren who are in the highest risk groups. We’re not willing to gamble with their lives. So, we prep… just in case.
I really do hope that we’re wasting our time, but I fear we are not.
Welcome to FluWiki!
BG - no need to shout. And I feel no need to “DEFEND” anything. My observation is that many here know more than those in the Fed Gov whom I deal with on aregular government. Relax and accept the compliment. : )
Newsie-The social aspects of this site are window-dressing and incidental, (we are, after all, human). The serious purpose of this site as envisioned by its creators continues each and every day based on hard science, hard reports, and the real life responses of its participants and lurkers.
You have told us what you feel about us and this site. Tell us your “facts” as to why this is just an inconsequential, interesting sideshow that perversely piques your interest so much that you have hung around for a year-and-a-half.
Your words-“I am not saying a pandemic won’t happen”. But one will happen. That is a certainty. That certainty needs to be fixed in your mind. And until you do that you will be “above it all” wondering why those wild and crazy fluwikians are in such a frenzy.
On the The Public Engagement Project on Community Control Measures Register Now thread we have Cherokee Rose telling us about attending the meeting!! She was able to put the following in Red and Bold but it didn’t copy that way (I think) but we can all super proud.
Cherokee Rose – at 21:03 Flu Wiki was given credit at the BEGINNING of the meeting - in the opening comments before ANY citizen participants said a word
Credit Goes to FLU WIKI :-)
Cherokee Rose also let us know that: Flu Wiki ALONE was specifically named by the Keystone Center as having a critical role in Pandemic Flu education and the website info given :-).
Because of folks here on Fluwikie, we are educated, informed, and leaders (we don’t panic, we lead, if I remember the quote). Our PPF goes up and down, but only because we have knowledge. Many thanks to you all, those that report news, attend meetings, keep us informed, keep us humored and laughing and singing. Thanks also to those that make us think by bringing up things we haven’t thought of, don’t want to think of, or disagree with. It all keeps us on top and prepared to lead and teach and survive. Thank you. Cherokee Rose let me know by her posting, that we are some of the best informed folks around.
Newsie. 10 pandemics have occured in the last 300 years; one every 30 years, on average.It’s been 37 years since the last one. A severe pandemic occurs on average every 100 years. The last severe pandemic was 1918 - 88 years ago.
Statistically, I would venture to say a severe pandemic is much more likely to occur than my or your house burning down or either of us getting in a car wreck. I don’t know about you, but I’m not willing to risk my life savings by letting my insurance policies lapse, even momentarily. I spend all of 2k a year on this insurance. I spent maybe 1k on food/water preps (most all of it will at sometime be used).
Not preparing for BF or some other calamity is highly illogical, irrational, and irresponsible.
My intention was not to offend. I was strictly making an observation on anxiety patterns based on news vs. absence of news. I know all too well that another pandemic will happen, the aggresiveness of said pandemic will not be known until after.
I do not debate the reality of a pandemic happening or the value of prepping. I am suggesting that too often we let our anxiety overrule our intellects. Keep in mind prepping is prudent, obsessing about a pending pandemic hints at more serious issues.
It is late for me here, so if I do not respond, it is because I have turned in.
Again, my posts are strictly my observations and don’t apply to everyone. If you do see yourself in them, please know my remarks were meant in general and not directed at you personally.
Newsie @ 22:09 I guess it depends on what the meanings of “obcessing” and “anxiety” are, doesn’t it. It would appear that you do not “get” that your comments are judgmental, thus engender rebuttal. Because of my training in counseling, I have learned much about the wide variety of the way people express or even allow emotions in their life. We have the “Mr. Spokes” who only tolerate the facts, and any expression of feeling or emotion is seen as less than the ideal. For others, the language they speak is emotions, while congnitive reasoning follows in their wake. In other words,they feel first, come to realizations later. Each person has their own truth that lies on the spectrum between these two points. To judge any expression of emotion as bordering on pathological [which is how I read your words] is, as stated above, patronizing — at minimum.
MAinVA: Are you saying you don’t believe that there are times on the wiki when anxiety gets the better of some people?
I’m not saying that at all. I believe we all go through periods of that and it not a sign of something wrong or that we must ignore our feelings and focus exclusively on the “facts”. The term for fear reaction has left me, however we have had a thread on it. That is normal and not what I take from Newsie’s posts. There is a black and white, all or nothing sense — either one operates from the facts OR one is reacting [wrongly] out of emotion. And yes, I agree that may be a generalization. Frankly I was born never believing what I read in the newspapers, so if that were where we are to get “the truth,” in my mind heaven help us. Doesn’t mean I don’t read the news, because I do. I just do not trust it simply because it is written down or broadcast by the media. And I have too many years of training and experience in seeing how valuable personal feelings are in giving us information to throw them out completely. Will be have over reactions at times, yes; but I would rather have that than ignore or label what some might term negative reactions as obcesssive.
Newsie: several posts
I see your point and FW does have interesting dynamics among a collective group. I think a “study” would be very interesting.
PS…
SA=South America, Paraguay is a country in South America.
Bush buying ranch is SA is correct statement.
The comment “The ups and downs on the fluwiki as well as the public catharsis here is fascinating” does rather make me feel like a specimen being observed and cataloged.
I have a variety of “handles” and used a “mom” one here because it was my concerns for my family that brought me to fluwiki. I use a dog based handle on ebay because my first searches there were for dog agility equipment — so, I would wonder if all the “moms” here might simply be people who had family relations in mind when beginning here. I certainly can pictue Mom11 as “Ultracanner” on a cooking site.
My PPF was actually dropping a bit until I was invited to sit in on a county planning meeting. Nothing like hearing an official list your neighborhood school as a potential clinic/hospital site to make the “glulck” moment happen. I’m a solid 8.0 and will be until Memorial Day 2009
Folks, a quick comment if you will.
Newsie has made some observations that have some truth in my opinion. While taken as patronizing by some due to the wording, there is still some truth within his/her statements.
Here on the fluwiki we are willing to express what our feelings are about a pandemic occuring because we find the fluwiki as a safe place to express them. We are on the internet and incognito so we are a bit more free with our thoughts and fears. Does anxiety drive some of the discussion? Sure. Hey, its panflu we are talking about. Nothing unusual is going on here, very normal I think.
We are influenced by the hive mind because we have come to believe there is a significant number of highly intelligent people that participate in the fluwiki forum, and when the general concensus is that things are looking bad we tend to ratchet up our own level of concern. Also normal. Part of the reason I started reading and participating in the fluwiki forum was because of the intelligent and thoughtful discussion. Now, just because someone is intelligent and thoughtful does not mean I am going to believe everything they say, but it does mean I will give some degree of weight to their thoughts. When the fluwiki starts leaning in one direction I take notice, but I make up my own mind based upon the given evidences. In my opinion, this is what we all are doing to one degree or another, but we are still swayed by the general direction of the hive mind concerning impending danger. Normal human behaviour.
Newsie, please continue posting. We need diverse thoughts and opinions on the fluwiki forum. This provides balance within the hive mind and helps us all approach the problem of pandemic flu with an attitude of watchfulness tempered with pragmatic questioning.
Tamiflu helped avert outbreak of bird flu….After reading this article (in the Oct. 29th news thread… (http://tinyurl.com/y4rsxk), I had some major concerns about avian flu. It seemed to me, that there was a huge concern about h2h2h2, but they were able to stop it. Does that mean there is a mutation that has givin the virus that abilitiy? Has it passed? Does it need to find the combination again, or is it still lurking out there? I know that the anwswers are we don’t know, but this article made me a bit nervous. I decided that we are far from breathing a sigh of relief, even though it has been quiet for a few days. Your thoughts….
Ruth - to tell you the absolute truth, I am confused. We have different strains now. India, China, Indonesia. I believe the strains are different, so I can’t even figure out if the Tamiflu in India that stopped h2h2h in early 2006 is the same strain in Indonesia right now.
Ruth. I also found the article interesting. I think we dodged a significant bullet with the mutation that produced this unique strain of H5N1. If the same strains that caused Turkey and Indonesia and Vietnam had entered India, there would have probably been many human cases. With a population as large as China’s, India and neighbouring countries would have to be considered of equal likelyhood to be the source of the next pandemic.However, they may not have the same level of industrialized agriculture that have precipitated much of this…
…anyway, I believe this specific mutation decreased transmissibility rather than increasing it…and therefore, no human cases in this area. There have also been some changes in bird populations as well that would also indicate fine changes in viral genomes.
This doesn’t mean anything for the longterm picture…except we know the virus seems mutable and adaptable…it is not stable but is moving in many different directions all of the time…
…My conclusion is that it is only a matter of time until it hits the right combination and I honestly think every expert and regulator around the world is of the same opinion. They certainly have been quiet…no news is definitely not good news at this point.
Sorry, I meant to say that the Tamiflu part of the article was pure speculation and in my opinion ‘baloney’. I nice piece of Public Relations for the pharmaceutical company…expect it to be referenced many times in the next two years as evidence mounts that antivirals will not be effective at all in a pandemic beyond the first few weeks.
Thanks Tom DVM - that helped me sort this out.
need advice on freezing – at 00:46
normally S.A. stands for South Africa in most of the reports I see. Notice also that the Bush that claimed by the rummors to be buying the ranch is Jenna Bush and not a “George” and it appears to be part of her UNICEF work and the possible establishment of an “ecological reserve”
and the local governer calls it a rumor: “the governor said he had no documents to prove the rumor”
“A spark of the interest in this property may have been Jenna Bush’s private visit to Paraguay with Unicef, which started Saturday, October 7, 2006. Supposedly Jenna will travel to the ranch to observe- several indigenous villages are located on the property.” Unless documents surface, I suggest considering this just a rumor.
Very good DennisC !!
Long thread closed and continued here
Newsie. There have been occassional posters who come and go who have taken the avian flu as just the newest of their chronic anxieties and fears. The other posters here have generally tried to moderate and calm them down. As far as jumping on you, I assure you, the fluwiki group , seems to me, as having the most civil of posters and is the most considerate of others . Some blogs have posters who seem to disembowel other posters as a sport. I call them snapping turtles. They have intelligent posters, but snippy attitudes. That has never characterized this group. Once in a while there are tensions and lively disagreements. I have always been very low on the fear factor in Avian flu, but I do believe it is sensible to prep, and just as sensible to keep an eye on this. Those who take the time to moniter this in depth are doing a public service. The entire concept of the fluwiki is keeping people informed and giving them the knowledge to prep intelligently.The Fluwiki and the posters have my complete respect. There are other sites, others just as into prepping and keeping track. Each has its own flavor. Perhaps you should look into them and analyse them as well.