Forum: News Reports for October 31

(If you want any of the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 30 October 2006

Lookout Posts – here are the links (if no Lookout Post exists, it will not be highlighted)

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions or to add news

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)

Summary of News for 29 October 2006

(From WHO as at 16 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 151 (2006 – 109 with 73 deaths)

Egypt

• Health Hazards galore – outbreaks of avian flu and salmonella (link http://tinyurl.com/v2dzg)
• Seventh Egyptian dies from avian influenza (link http://tinyurl.com/sofnm)
• More information on situation and poultry vaccination (link http://tinyurl.com/uruvq)
• Commentary from Dr Niman – see thread at 17:27

India

• See separate thread for discussion (link India III )

Indonesia

• Note that news stories are limited by the major holiday
• Separate thread for outbreak discussion (link Indonesia Outbreak XIX )
• Separate thread for Summary of cases (link Case Summaries )

Norway

• Translation in thread regarding no vaccine supplies in a pandemic (see 18:31)

United Kingdom

• GSK in discussions with Blair on bird flu vaccination (link http://tinyurl.com/y7hhgm)

United States of America

• Bird flu: the front line (NYT) (link http://tinyurl.com/v947t)
• What will Americans do if bird flu strikes? (link http://tinyurl.com/k6sve)
• USDA downplays significance of low-pathogenic bird flu (link http://tinyurl.com/yazj5r)
• (Missouri) Dr. Bao-Ping Zhu - member of CDC Critical Backup Team (link http://tinyurl.com/y8atyv)

Vietnam

• Vietnam remains on alert after year without bird flu death (link http://tinyurl.com/y8xyoe)

General

• New H5N1 strain could start wave of bird flu outbreaks (links http://tinyurl.com/ym49jp and http://tinyurl.com/yh55d7 and http://tinyurl.com/tcn88 and http://tinyurl.com/y6kpry)
• Bird flu strain that caused outbreaks evaded vaccine in China (link http://tinyurl.com/uteqd)
• New strain of bird flu takes over (link http://tinyurl.com/yekl3l)
• The NS1 gene contributes to the virulence of H5N1 influenza viruses (link http://tinyurl.com/y8rrpo)
• H5N1 recombination evidence excluded (link http://tinyurl.com/y86fpp )
• World experts meet in Cairo to tackle health needs of developing countries (link http://tinyurl.com/y3do7x)
• Flu viruses don’t constantly evolve to outwit immunity: study (link http://tinyurl.com/y8t4as)
• Rising seas could leave millions homeless in Asia (link http://tinyurl.com/yy2yml)

Link to news thread for 30 October (link News Reports for October 30 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

After considerable commentary in yesterday’s News Thread about the changing virus strain and evading vaccination etc, the following post was made and I thought it well worth copying to today’s thread

anon_22 – at 00:11

You know what? Nothing was ever going to ‘solve the problem’. Nature has its way of throwing up new strains. Remember that previous pandemic viruses also started from southern China, long before there were poultry vaccines. The question that I still have is this, what is so different about that part of the world, that makes it the origin of pandemic flu viruses? Until someone starts to look at it this way, we won’t get any nearer to figuring out what’s going on, IMHO.

L.A. officials warned to prepare for avian flu

Troy Anderson, Staff Writer Article Launched:10/31/2006 12:00:00 AM PST

LOS ANGELES — Although the spread of the avian flu is slowing in Europe and is unlikely to hit the U.S. soon, Los Angeles County health officials warned school districts and government agencies on Monday to continue preparing for its eventual arrival. “What’s known now is that the spread of the avian H5N1 virus has seemed to slow down,” said Sadina Reynaldo, an epidemiologist with the county Department of Public Health. She emphasized government officials and the public should continue to prepare for a pandemic.

Reynaldo made the comments during a flu conference for about 200 education leaders and school emergency specialists to focus on preparations for a flu pandemic that could result in widespread student absences and force school closures.

Los Angeles County Superintendent of Schools Darlene Robles said she wants to provide school districts with the information they need to develop comprehensive health plans in the event of a pandemic. Robles said school districts would be expected to provide parents with informational packets on how students could continue learn if schools were closed.

link http://tinyurl.com/sdej6

Diseases affecting Yellowstone wildlife Park, universities conduct research projects

By MIKE STARK Of The Gazette Staff

Infectious and sometimes deadly wildlife diseases are inching closer to Yellowstone National Park, and few of its most famous animals seem immune from the threat.

The list reads like a who’s who of troubling bugs and viruses: chronic wasting disease, West Nile, avian flu, whirling disease, hantavirus and brucellosis.

Some are already in Yellowstone; others may be coming. If they take hold, they threaten elk, bison, deer and other mammals along with native trout and birds.

Lots more at http://tinyurl.com/yycdxl

(New Zealand) Planners prepare for possible pandemic

31 October 2006 By KAMALA HAYMAN

Up to 1800 plane passengers and crew might have to be quarantined in Christchurch if an international flu pandemic forces New Zealand to close its borders.

Army barracks, tent cities, sports stadiums and hotels have been considered as possible quarantine centres for passengers arriving at Christchurch International Airport after borders have been closed, says a draft pandemic plan released by the Canterbury District Health Board yesterday.

The release comes just days before all 21 district health boards take part in a day-long exercise to test the nation’s preparedness for a flu pandemic. The Health Ministry scenario, to be tested on November 9, supposes isolated outbreaks of an infectious and deadly flu virus in each district.

<snip>

New Zealand is likely to close its borders as soon as the WHO identified a pandemic virus internationally.

In Christchurch, health officials would race to the airport to intercept flights. Passengers showing symptoms of the suspect pandemic virus were likely to be sent to hospital and others diverted to quarantine sites.

<snip> ( ..discussing quarantine sites and options .. ) Public health officials said hotels were the best option. The Rydges hotel chain had already offered its services.

Border control was expected to slow the spread of any pandemic flu but not prevent its arrival. Public health officials would try to stamp out any clusters until it spread beyond small groups.

A full-scale pandemic would then mean schools, shopping malls and bars would be closed.

Hospitals and other healthcare providers would be separated into red and green streams to keep flu sufferers (red) from other patients (green).

<snip>

Hospitals would not be able to cope with the number of cases if the next pandemic was as severe as that seen in 1918. If repeated today, four out of 10 people would be infected and 3700 people in Canterbury would die.

Millar said most flu sufferers would be expected to recover at home and seek advice from a phone helpline. Some would be referred to special flu clinics or “community-based assessment centres” but kept away from GPs or the hospital’s emergency department. Millar said he believed Christchurch communities would support each other during a pandemic. However, a discussion document released by the National Ethics Advisory Committee has suggested a mixed response, ranging from volunteers who visited isolated families to people who refused to help their sick neighbours.

<snip> (Link http://tinyurl.com/wz72l)

Comment: Niman spoke about the Fujian strain being “widespread” in China, in wild birds, poultry, and in human cases, months ago. Why is this news being released now by Yi Guan, Webster. What is different? We’ve known about it, but why make the world aware of this now?

Likewise for the story from China about the tree sparrows infected with H5N1. We have known about the fact that tree sparrows in China can carry H5N1 for around a year now. We’ve seen at least partial sequences for them. Why did we see a rash of stories about this “news” hit the very mainstream media last week?

The concept, too, that any of these strains might become resistant to vaccines is also an old one, and one that’s been commented on frequently. Last we heard, China had planned to vaccinate 4 billion birds, which is basically an invitation to the virus to act like a teenager trying to avoid curfew. Are they saying that the new news is that Fujian is now more resistant to most antivirals/vax and/or that it is now hard to detect? I am having a hard time parsing what is specifically new news from what Webster is saying and these news reports.

Pixie,

There is a difference between writing about it on a blog and publishing a scientific paper, with all the rigor and review process necessary, and the references to back up what you are saying. The moral of the story is that you may get information sooner from informal sources, but you need to look out for formal verification, cos the initial information could be incorrect, when all the details are taken into account.

Also, Niman was quoting from one single set of slides from the Chinese CDC, while Webster et al took 53,000 samples and sequenced 400 of them. This is first hand information.

Pixie- You are asking the same question as I have been for over a week; why are they now, releasing much older info on this?

anon_22-

I’m sure that made sense to some people here, and I do respect your output on all of this, but please, in laymens terms? Either they have been purposefully withholding information from the public or they haven’t.

comment: maybe it’s just halloween

cottontop,

Nobody has been withholding information. The research process to test and confirm findings take time. As is the process of submitting it to a publication, which needs to review it in detail before it is published. The timescale is about right, for this process.

Or, to put it in another way, Niman and similar reports are what we would call anecdotal reports, ie somebody said something, and its not proven to be either accurate or statistically valid. It’s still useful to know, but such information can often by either wrong or misleading..

Part of the criticism about Niman’s approach expressed by many people is his refusal to go through the proper processes to validate his ideas. That’s fine, as long as you know that those are only his ideas and not fully verified in a more rigorous manner. That’s also why he can make so many utterances, (see the pieces he writes), while Webster et al makes a lot less.

I’ve nothing against Niman’s taking anecdotal evidence and explaining them. We do that too on this forum. But one should label that as such when doing that.

Those of you who still don’t understand this, see if you can get a copy of the paper, and read through the methodology and ask yourself why they go through such a complicated ritual to make one or two points. The answer is so that other scientists can read it and examine their methods to see if the conclusions are valid. It’s called openness.

on Good Morning America today the weather was brought to you by Tamiflu. Go figure.

It is flu season. : )

anon_22 8:04

IMHO waiting for scientific validation via publication means by the time it is published it is old information. Six months is a long time horizon in this situation. There will be “bodies in the streets” (anecdotal)and the TPTB will waiting for scientific proof to validate the pandemic.

anon_22 8:04

IMHO waiting for scientific validation via publication means by the time it is published it is old information. Six months is a long time horizon in this situation. There will be “bodies in the streets” (anecdotal)and the TPTB will waiting for scientific proof to validate the pandemic.

anon_22:

Point well taken about proper scientific process. But in this particular situation, maybe the top scientists need to find a new paradigm, a new way of working, some kind of emergency footing. Six months is a long time to wait to hear that a poultry vax is potentially ineffective. The Chinese farmers would have known this months ago, though.

I now have a picture in my mind of Yi Guan or Webster emerging from their labs, ready with the announcement that pan-flu is imminent, only to find that everyone in their offices has left and gone home because they already have it.

Mystery illness kills at least 20 in Nepal Mon 30 Oct 2006 10:11 PM ET KATHMANDU, Oct 31 (Reuters) - A mysterious disease has killed at least 20 people in two villages of west Nepal over the past 10 days, and hundreds more are sick, a health official said on Tuesday. “People suddenly catch high fever, start shivering, faint and then die,” said Ram Bahadur Chand, a senior official the district public health office in Nepalgunj, 321 km (201 miles) west of the capital, Kathmandu. Local media reports put the death toll at 36 from four remote villages near Nepalgunj. “We have 20 confirmed deaths so far and more than 300 people are suffering from the unknown disease,” Chand told Reuters. He said 200 blood samples had been collected and medical workers had reached the affected villages. Each year Nepal’s rickety health infrastructure run by a mere 1300 doctors in 87 hospitals around the country deals with hundreds of thousands of cases of pneumonia, cholera, fever, diarrhoea and tuberculosis. Many of the poor Himalayan nation’s 26 million people are either unable to afford the cost of medical treatment or do not have access to basic health care.

http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=B145880

anon_22 – at 08:04 wrote:

Or, to put it in another way, Niman and similar reports are what we would call anecdotal reports, ie somebody said something, and its not proven to be either accurate or statistically valid. It’s still useful to know, but such information can often by either wrong or misleading.

Commentary

1 a : an explanatory treatise — usually used in plural b : a record of events usually written by a participant — usually used in plural

2 a : a systematic series of explanations or interpretations (as of a writing)

Anecdotal

“: a usually short narrative of an interesting, amusing, or biographical incident”

http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/anecdote

If news of vaccines’ inefficiency are published too fast, aren’t the drug companies losing a lot of income..?

Cynically Yours, Thinlina

Homesteader – at 08:35

Homesteader – at 08:35 anon_22 8:04

IMHO waiting for scientific validation via publication means by the time it is published it is old information. Six months is a long time horizon in this situation. There will be “bodies in the streets” (anecdotal)and the TPTB will waiting for scientific proof to validate the pandemic.

In this instance, it isn’t. It hasn’t made much difference to the outcome, whether you knew about it then or now, IMHO. We can disagree, but credibility of source is extremely important.

FYI, I saw the Chinese CDC slides when they came out. I read the information related to it from a different source in original ie in Chinese. I thought it was credible, but I saw 2 problems about writing them up. One, they only gave a very small sample. There was very little indication on what else was happening to put in context, which is now supplied by the Webster study, even though that is still not a complete picture, but its a more complete one. Secondly, the credibility of the Chinese government has often been doubted indeed derided on this forum. I have been challenged repeatedly about ‘defending’ them even when I’m not.

In addition, there was no immediate implication for action, ie I would not have decided to act differently based on a small number of samples of H5N1 having changed in China, as one would expect was going to happen sooner or later. Now if the information was about large outbreaks, then that’s a different story. I would have written up about them and put in the caveat that this was anecdotal and unverified.

With all respect, you (not you in particular, but folks in general) can’t have it both ways. Saying the Chinese government is not to be trusted, and saying that information based solely on Chinese government source aka the Niman blogs is so trustworthy that we don’t need to wait for independent scientific verificationl.

When do we wait and when we should not wait, is a matter of judgement. On the various threads that I’ve been posting on community containment, I’ve been writing about ‘precautionary principle’, when one needs to take action despite lack of evidence. IMHO this current finding of Fujian strain does not rise to that threshold. But again you can disagree.

Klatu,

‘Anecdotal’ used in the scientific sense means its not verified and/or its not statistically significant.

anon_22 – at 09:01 “In this instance, it isn’t. It hasn’t made much difference to the outcome, whether you knew about it then or now, IMHO. We can disagree, but credibility of source is extremely important.”

Anon_22, people need quite a bit of money to get the vaccines. If the money is spent to some ineffective vaccines, there isn’t always money left to buy the effective ones. That’s one reason why the published research seem to be “old news”.

Goju – at 08:07 on Good Morning America today the weather was brought to you by Tamiflu. Go figure.

Goju, In its third quarter earnings conference call, Roche bemoaned the fact that, while Tamiflu is currently widely accepted as the treatment du jour for H5N1 infection, there is not enough regular seasonal demand for Tamiflu to treat seasonal flu. Roche is attempting to build awareness on this front. Has nothing to do with pan prep really.

Pixie – at 08:49

quote “I now have a picture in my mind of Yi Guan or Webster emerging from their labs, ready with the announcement that pan-flu is imminent, only to find that everyone in their offices has left and gone home because they already have it.”

I think I’ll draw that cartoon

cottontop – at 07:43 I’m sure that made sense to some people here, and I do respect your output on all of this, but please, in laymens terms? Either they have been purposefully withholding information from the public or they haven’t.

anon_22 – at 07:58 Nobody has been withholding information. The research process to test and confirm findings take time. As is the process of submitting it to a publication, which needs to review it in detail before it is published. The timescale is about right, for this process.

To say nothing of the actual publication process itself. Periodicals have long lead times to allow for the editorial process, printing, and distribution.

The thing I find interesting about everything that is coming out now is that most of it validates the speculation on blogs and here at the wiki that was ongoing months ago. I think we should feel confident in the news and interpretation that goes on here.

Why is all of this getting released now? For the reasons already given, no doubt. But also, maybe part of the ongoing awareness drum beat.

Pixie – at 08:49 anon_22:

Point well taken about proper scientific process. But in this particular situation, maybe the top scientists need to find a new paradigm, a new way of working, some kind of emergency footing.

The information coming out of the IOM meeting is unpublished, and very recent. That’s an example of when they believed there is no time to waste to wait for publication, but they still presented it in front of a roomful of peers who can ask questions and review the data.

The information about the response of Turkish cases to tamiflu is another example. In that instance, because of methodology flaws and/or Turkish government’s reluctance to supply more information, the data could not be published via the proper channels. I learnt about it first from Fred Hayden in Singapore and secondly from the Turkish docs in Paris at the Institut Pasteur. That gives me enough confidence about the credibility of the information.

Six months is a long time to wait to hear that a poultry vax is potentially ineffective. No, that’s been widely talked about. It is entirely expected. But what is the point of saying it unless it is to try and change policy? And if you want to change policy, to overcome opposition, you would then need properly documented water-tight data.

The Chinese farmers would have known this months ago, though. No they didn’t. As far as they were concerned the vaccine worked, ie there were far fewer poultry deaths. We are the ones who worry about chickens not dying, the farmers are happy when the chickens didn’t die.

I now have a picture in my mind of Yi Guan or Webster emerging from their labs, ready with the announcement that pan-flu is imminent, only to find that everyone in their offices has left and gone home because they already have it.

They are a lot smarter than that. :-) Plus the proof that a pandemic is happening is not in virology, is in epidemiology.

Those FluWikians tracking cases will know sooner than virologists if a pandemic is breaking out.

From what I recall Webster has been a stong advocate for prepping and never down played the threat and the need for preparation. He never said, “Gee wait until I check this out and I will get back to you”. But, scientific verification is critical to understanding the problem and attempting to find ways to address it. It takes time - it is doing your homework (we all wish we were born with absolute knowledge and wisdom).

It is also true that some countries for a variety of reasons are not completely forthcoming. That is a problem but there is no easy solution for that. Yes, there are delays but don’t shot the messengers (Webster, et al) for their research and verification. The more we understand about this virus the better.

Thinlina – at 09:06

Anon_22, people need quite a bit of money to get the vaccines. If the money is spent to some ineffective vaccines, there isn’t always money left to buy the effective ones. That’s one reason why the published research seem to be “old news”.

If you are talking about farmers and poultry vaccines in China, they only care about whether the chickens are dying. So you can’t sell them the notion that vaccines that selects for new H5N1 strains that does not always kill the chickens is a bad idea.

It’s the government (yes, the central government in Beijing and the Chinese CDC) who are worried about bad vaccines, but they have a hard time implementing proper controls at the local level.

Edna Mode – at 09:12

Why is all of this getting released now? For the reasons already given, no doubt. But also, maybe part of the ongoing awareness drum beat.

It’s coming out now cos the samples were taken for a 12-month period of July 2005 to June 2006. That is, the last samples were obtained 4 months ago. To analyze all of those samples, do supplementary research to verify stuff, come up with a thesis to explain the data, agree among the researchers, write it up, edit it, send it to various journals, wait for editorial response, possibly being sent back for some major or minor re-writes, before finally being accepted for publication. If the last samples were taken in June, this is fast!

My previous post was in no way intended to “slam” the scientists and hope it was not interpreted that way. Indeed, as “Observer” pointed out Dr. Webster along with Dr. Osterholm has been one of the few to stick his neck out and tell it the way he sees it, which is harsh to say the least. Now Dr. Webster et al are providing the scientific proof to validate the evolution of the virus that he said was going to happen over a year ago. Dr. Webster said “It is going to happen” in reference to the virus gaining the ability to go H2H. . . .and “This is the deadliest virus I’ve ever encountered”

Scientists Discover New Drug-Resistant Strain of Bird Flu

“Scientists have discovered a new strain of bird flu and it looks like current vaccines are not effective against it. Researchers from the University of Hong Kong say the strain can be found in China and other Asian countries.

It has infected people, but doesn’t appear to easily pass from person to person like the common flu. Experts say new vaccines will need to be developed to battle the new strain. “

http://tinyurl.com/u94ra

All you people questioning the time requirement and validations before publishing of the scientific process represented in the quantity and quality of the Webster et al examination should report to the rumor thread, immediately.

All you people satisfied with JIT prepping and Social Distancing report to the WHO website for all further information relating to the HPAI Pandemic. :)

LOL!

Too bad Niman can’t defend himself here against anon_22′s attempts to discredit him.

I do understand that researcing, validating and publishing material is a long and tedious process. And this should really open our eyes up to the fact that “help” in any form of vaccine/medication, will not be in sight, for a long time when the pandemic hits. Six month minimal, just for research? How long after that to create vaccines/medicines, another 6 months minimal? So 12 months for “help” to arrive seems validated. Yes research is slooow, and if they are only dealing with one particular that is recking hevic, help would arrive on schedule. If it mutates, or they are looking at more than one strain, don’t look for help in 12 months. There’s too much circulating out there now, for it to be “just one” virus, or “just one “ bacteria. I will have to give these people credit, for even releasing their findings, and not “coverup” what they know.

we’re so past that

Niman called migratory bird spreading H5N1 before anyone else in the face of much resistance. He called S227N. He called the spread into Indonesia and the nightmare it would create there. He called the spread into the Mid east and Africa.

Official notices take too long when looking at Pandemic Flu… especially one cause by such a deadly virus.

It is too bad he is not here anymore.

then the dart throwing should stop

that was in response to moeb

FYI

Long, but interesting read on Oct 2006 issue of http://www.hsaj.org/

Assessment of Public Health Infrastructure to Determine Public Health Preparedness

   - Denise Santiago, Anke Richter 

A couple of quick points:

1. The wiki format allows a kind of real-time peer review process. I’m extremely grateful to anon_22 AND Niman — and everyone else who is bringing their intellect to bear on the panflu problem.

2. Each of us has a different agenda. That diversity helps to keep us from over-reacting. It’s the ballast of the ship.

3. MSM is clearly taking panflu much more seriously now. The reports are more sober. We owe a lot to those who have built credibility by carefully assessing the facts and challenges we face.

“Worringly, the antibodies being used to develop human vaccines for H5N1 have been induced from 2004 strains of the virus-these antibodies do not recognize the Fuijian strain. This means the current experimental pandemic vaccine would not work against any pandemic virus that emerged equipped with Fuijian surface protiens.”

www.sawfnews.com scroll down to health

Ya know,

I’m all for the scientific process. I am a product of that milieu. Probably at conception, if the truth be known…but that is another thread…

BUT, IMO, waiting months for information to be dispersed in a situation where hours, days and weeks may mean the difference between high and low rates of mortality/morbidity, does not exactly meet the needs of the human populace.

I fully recognize the need for validated research data. Absolutely. But, hell, 90% of what we do in medicine on a daily basis is based purely on anecdotal information. And that is a fact, Jack. We are only now embracing evidence-based medical practices. BTW, this paragraph is not to negate the need for such evidence.

BUT (again)…it is one thing to merely comment and throw out information randomly. And then another to do so based on information and observances by educated informants. Anecdotal information obtained by virologists, epidemiologists, geneticists, HCWs, in the field is not to be taken lightly. Those in the trenches watching this unfold before their eyes are valuable data collectors.

We do this every day in healthcare. Those medications that are approved to be utilized in one method are typically used DAILY on an off-label way. These off-label uses are done so because the drug companies will not pay for the research to apply for a different utilization. It takes years to get that changed.

IMO, this situation is analogous to many of our practice issues mentioned above. With the exception of a possible/probable devolution to disaster measured in terms of viral replications. I do not think that info obtained from the field or lab, by educated, reliable professionals should be relegated to a “Rumors” thread.

There should be instead, gradations of data ranging from anecdotal, first-pass info, to more refined, probable info, to the final, verified research summary. At least those first reports from valued informants will give a heads up alert, to then be refuted or validated.

NEWS - EGYPT - WHO confirms 7th death: http://tinyurl.com/yeju4c

Avian influenza – situation in Egypt – update 10 - 31 October 2006

The Ministry of Health in Egypt has confirmed the country’s seventh death from H5N1 avian influenza. The 39-year-old woman, whose infection was confirmed on 11 October, died on 30 October.

Of the 15 cases confirmed to date in Egypt, seven have been fatal.

I just found this about Bush signing a new law that makes it easier to use US troops inside the US to “suppress public disorder”: In a stealth maneuver, President Bush has signed into law a provision which, according to Senator Patrick Leahy (D-Vermont), will actually encourage the President to declare federal martial law (1). It does so by revising the Insurrection Act, a set of laws that limits the President’s ability to deploy troops within the United States. The Insurrection Act (10 U.S.C.331 −335) has historically, along with the Posse Comitatus Act (18 U.S.C.1385), helped to enforce strict prohibitions on military involvement in domestic law enforcement. With one cloaked swipe of his pen, Bush is seeking to undo those prohibitions

It specifically mentions epidemics http://tinyurl.com/ykunoe

Scaredy Cat – at 10:52 wrote:

“Too bad Niman can’t defend himself here…….”

All ideas and thoughts need to be critically challenged and withstand close scrutinity. The only foolish question, is the one that remains unspoken. I don’t think Dr. N would disagree. My 2-cents.

Expected Terjangkit the Bird Flu Virus, Hundreds Of poultries died Suddenly in Tanjungbalai

31, 2006 at 08:36 AM

(software translation from Indonesian)

(SIB) in a week of hundreds of poultries of a kind of chicken and the duck died suddenly di Tanjungbalai was expected terjangkit the virus Avian influenza (AI) or was known with bird flu. Resulting from the death of this poultry, the Tanjungbalai community became restless and asked for serious attention from the Tanjungbalai Health Service. “Kami surprised in this week our kept chicken died suddenly and that was reported to the village head setempat,” said Alogo Harahap the citizen of the District of Subdistrict tusks Datuk the Tanjungbalai Port, on Monday (30/10) to the reporter.

Alogo said, his kept chicken approximately 80 tails died suddenly and together. To guard the assumption of the existence of the virus of attacking his livestock then the incident it was reported to district apparatus during immediately was followed up.

He said, all the chicken that died belonging to him at the time was at once burnt along with his pen because dikwatirkan so that terjangkit to the kept poultry the citizen of surrounding area. According to Alogo, not only his kept chicken that died suddenly, dozens of the citizen’s chickens around also was attacked and died suddenly.

However the chicken and the citizen’s duck that died this was that at once was buried and a citizen’s part exiled him to the closest river in the area. The assumption of the existence of the AI virus in the same area made the citizen of the Sei Tualang Raso Subdistrict restless, after being found by dozens of the citizen’s chickens also died suddenly. The chicken that died suddenly this immediately was planted/was buried. Learned the existence of hundreds of chickens and the duck died suddenly, the community became restless and was worried by the death of hundreds of poultries was resulted in by the AI virus or bird flu.

So the community ask for so that the agricultural Service and Perternakan as well as the Health Service in daeah that immediately could intervene to do the existence research of the assumption of the AI virus didaeah that. And was asked to do the extermination for the poultry remained if positive the existence of the AI virus.” - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/ybm4rf

I believe we have strayed from the original controversy, which was did anybody try to hide the truth. :-)

Other than that, information in any way shape or form is always useful. There’s a time and place for everything, otherwise, why else would we have a wiki? Its just a matter of personal judgment how you use or evaluate a specific piece of info,

Maps: Tanjungbalai on the Island of Sumatra, just south-east of the city of Medan

http://tinyurl.com/y9rvtf

http://www.fallingrain.com/world/ID/26/Tanjungbalai.html

From the AABB smartbrief-

New bird flu strain reported in Southeast Asia A new strain of avian flu appears to dodge vaccines being developed to block the virus and already has infected some Asians, raising anew the fear of a global pandemic. Researchers call it the H5N1 Fujian-like strain, and it already is the target of an effort to develop new vaccines. Los Angeles Times/Associated Press (free registration) (10/30)

Hi anon 22. The WHO doesn’t hide the truth…it twists the truth, it manipulates the truth…like an alchemist, it makes truth out of fiction…

…and the ethical members of the World Health Organization stand by and let it happen…seems to me that during other historical events in the past ethical people also stood by and kept silent…

…’tis a fine web that we weave’.

UK - Increase in wild bird surveillance for Avian Flu

http://tinyurl.com/yzy3yo

More than 300 nature reserves, parks and reservoirs are being added to the list of sites where wild birds are tested for signs of avian influenza, Environment Secretary David Miliband announced today.

Klatu at 12:30 - “All ideas and thoughts need to be critically challenged and withstand close scrutinity.”

I agree. However the discussion’s a little stunted when the scrutinee has been banned from participation.

I normally don’t post new books and products but this one is a free down load: although I wonder since it says there are “antibiotic resistant stains” in its PR.

“A new free book about bird flu has been published by Michael Greger, M.D., the US Humane Society’s director of public health and animal agriculture. Bird Flu: a Virus of Our Own Hatching (the site contains the entire book text) tells why modern industrialized agricultural methods, including factory farming, antibiotics misuse, and the use of animal refuse as a food source (!) for chickens and other livestock, have led to a staggering increase in the number of ‘zoonotic’ diseases that can leap from animals to people, and make a bird flu pandemic likely. The book discusses in practical terms what you can do to prevent infection and what to do if you do catch the disease. The book is especially timely given yesterday’s news that a new, antibiotics-resistant variant of H5N1 has been detected in China.”

http://tinyurl.com/y26ure

Two patients Suspect Bird Flu entered RSHS Bandung

Tuesday, October 31 2006 16:36

(Software Translation)

Bandung — “MIOL: two patients suspect bird flu, theSpirit, 62, and Int, 3, entered the Handsome Sadikin Hospital (RSHS) Bandung and both of them were treatedin space of the Poinciana Tree isolation after getting reconciliation from puskemas and the hospital thattreated the two patients.

The patient the Spirit, the citizen Rancaloa RT 05/08the District Cipamokolan the Rancasari Subdistrict, Bandung entered RSHS Bandung on Monday night (30/10) around struck 20.

Now the patient Int, the citizen Sindang Panon theBandung Subdistrict of the Regency Row entered RSHS Bandung on Tuesday morning around struck 08. According to the Chairman Tim the Control of Bird Fluin RSHS Bandung, Dr Hadi Yusuf, in Bandung, on Tuesday, said, the patient the Spirit was the consignment from the Cipamokolan Community Health Centre because of having the story of contact with the poultry that died suddenly totalling 13 tails and this poultry after being done by the inspection by Distan the Bandung City evidently positive bird flu. He said, was based on the speech on his family, the patient the Spirit already three until four days experienced the temperature of the hot body and had the sign of the cough, but was not breathless. Because the patient the Spirit had the sign like bird flu, then the patient was treated as suspect.

The patient the Spirit was not helped the implement pernasafan like the ventilator because did not experience breathless. Now the patient Int reconciliation from RSUD Soreang that since znumanyz days ago experienced the temperature of the body that was high enough and experienced breathless.

Despite this, the patient continued to be treated in space of the Poinciana Tree isolation and was helped the respirator.

“To ascertain the illness of the two patients, we to this Tuesday sent the sample of blood, apus the throat and the nose to Balitbangkes in Jakarta”, he said.

In the meantime, Vice Chairman Tim Penanggulangan Breakingprep Flu Burung, Dr Djatnika Setiabudi, proposed, the patient Int has clinically been fulfilled as suspect bird flu because of contact with the clear poultry, namely 11 tails of his property poultry died suddenly and had the sign of bird flu, like the hot body, fast breathing, and was pilek as well as breathless.”

http://tinyurl.com/utvnv

Make note of the ages of the latest two suspects with A.I., 3 and 62-years.

When the China Flu goes ballistic, is it really going to matter to its victims whether it is fujian or apricot? That information is for the science community and the vaccine creators, to ensure as close a match is possible to give some effectiveness. If such information was not rigorously validated then who would use it? Days, weeks, months? The main point is that it has to be scientifically valid to be ‘useful’.

If I said to you that, say, of my 30 backyard chickens, I noticed that those who limped (of which thre are 7) were the first to succumb to a particular disease, usually 3 days earlier than the rest of the brood. I, therefore, concluded that chickens with a limp have lower disease resistance, would you take that as true and use it to eliminate only chickens with a limp?

Niman’s claims are often proved to be correct but NOT BY NIMAN. Imagine how frustrating it must be for Webster et al if they think precious time is being lost while they undertake rigorous process .. but they also understnad the need to do so.

Enough already, let’s have these eminent and talented people get on with their work and count our blessings that we have sufficient awareness of the threat and the situation to be able to understand what they are saying!

UK expands bird flu test patrols

Matt Weaver and agencies Tuesday October 31, 2006 Guardian Unlimited

Hundreds more outdoor sites will be patrolled for signs of bird flu in Britain, the government announced today as scientists reported the discovery of a new strain of the disease in Asia. Staff at the country’s 304 nature reserves, parks and reservoirs will report any dead water birds to the Department of the Environment Food and Rural Affairs.

The move will expand the existing surveillance area by around 1,200 sq kilometres. It is part of the government’s strategy for detecting high-pathogenic strains of the disease in birds. More at http://tinyurl.com/v4aq9

AnnieB - at 15:01

Policy makers do prefer to be led by the scientists and hard science, if possible. They prefer to wait for the scientists to come to firm conclusions before policy is made. If science is too slow, or cannot reach agreement, and events outrun them, policy makers have to make policy without final firm conclusions, and often have to proceed with little or no sure scientific input.

Citizens prefer to wait for leadership from policy makers who they hope will establish cogent clear policies that clarify the actions they are supposed to take. If policy makers are too slow, or cannot reach agreement, and events outrun them, citizens sometimes have to move forward to take action and proceed on their own.

In an ideal world, we would have the time and leisure to move deliberately and surely, using best practices in both the scientific and policy realms. But events may outrun us. I think we feel that tension now. One of the most memorable lessons from Barry’s book, “The Great Influenza,” was how both the scientific community and the political leadership failed the city of Philadelphia and it was the Society Hill dames whose action and organization saved the city from complete misery when events overtook everyone.

Scientist gets out word: U.S. preparations for pandemic must pick up

“The predictions are staggering: 89,000 to 207,000 could die in a flu pandemic. Three hundred and fourteen thousand to 734,000 could be hospitalized. Twenty million to 47 million would be sick. If a medium-level pandemic – a global outbreak of disease such as the bird flu – hits the United States, experts predict it will impact 15 to 35 percent of all Americans, in the absence of any vaccinations….

at East Stroudsburg University on Monday. Dr. Carole Heilman, director of the Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, delivered the keynote address.”

http://tinyurl.com/y39poz

AnnieB – at 15:01 wrote:

“When the China Flu goes ballistic, is it really going to matter to its victims whether it is Fujian or apricot?”

Yes it will matter to those still standing, who are dodging the viral bullets - a la Matrix. Elucidating the underlying pathology will be very important. The right tool for the right job. But then, I’m no rocket scientist.

now if the virus will just wait for 3 to 5 years while they spend money on studies…

Preparing the world for a flu pandemic

“The World Health Organization’s new plan for ramping up the production of flu vaccine is a measure of how unprepared the world is to cope with an onslaught of pandemic influenza. The plan, conceived by a group of more than 120 experts, lays out a sensible path toward vaccine sufficiency - but it will take years to complete and cost up to $10 billion…

…The price tag would be $3 billion to $10 billion for a global effort that might yield results in three to five years, provided action started now.

 http://tinyurl.com/yf546y

Annie,

Scientific validation does not have to stop just because anecdotal information is shared.

I would surely trust a healthcare report coming from Leo7 before I would one heard from my housekeeper, <and I don’t even know Leo7 personally> because he has shown a strong knowledge base and a level head.

And if you were an experienced chicken farmer and you noted unique symptoms that you had never seen before in a subgroup of your poultry, you better believe I would pay attention to your information. Even without a doctorate!

I am not saying do not proceed with the formal, scientific data processing, but I also do not want to see a suppression of informed, experienced data collectors. Data points gathered from those in their own areas of expertise would seem to be extremely valuable. Sort of a “peer-reviewed” situation. Not taken at face value, but scrutinized by others in their field.

As a female, and knowing that we tend to be good communicators, I would be personally interested in gathering the information that the women of the communities possess. Find the matriarch of the area and get her cooperation to obtain information.

And if the whole system collapses, IMO, these local “experts” with scrutinized anecdotal data may soon be our best bet. Remember, even 30% of those working on that scientific validation may get infected.

I would like to see it all - the proven, the being worked on, AND the “something is happening but we don’t know what it is yet.” I suppose the latter is important to me because this happens in the hospital all the time. It takes someone with a good “second sense” <trust your gut> to be an excellent clinician. All your objective data may look OK, but you can just sense the patient is about to spiral out of control.

Ask Leo, he knows what I’m talking about…

I hope all y’all can open these links. One talks about WHO stating that the new strain of avian flu, “Fujian-like virus”, does not pose a greater human health risk. The second link from Reuters, states, strongly, there is. What do y’all think?

http://tinyurl.com/yk5m6q

http://tinyurl.com/yhvox7

Tink – at 16:57 wrote:

“I hope all y’all can open these links. One talks about WHO stating that the new strain of avian flu, “Fujian-like virus”, does not pose a greater human health risk…..What do y’all think?”

W.H.O. do you trust?

Further to the linksa from Tink:, here is the WHO story (rather long but some significant points and perspectives IMHO)

New bird flu variant doesn’t seem to pose greater human health risk: WHO

(CP) - The emergence of a new variant of H5N1 avian flu viruses doesn’t appear to raise or lower the risk the virus poses to humans, officials of the World Health Organization and the Food and Agriculture Organization said Tuesday. <snip>

The newly described subgroup of viruses could pose challenges for containing H5N1 in poultry because vaccines being used in China - where it emerged - may not protect domestic birds against this variant.

But the pattern of human cases with these viruses is similar to that seen with viruses spreading in Indonesia, or those that caused human infections in Vietnam in 2004 and 2005, said Michael Perdue of the WHO. The variant is responsible for recent human cases in China and Thailand.

“If you look at the mortality rate and the disease, the Fujian-strain infections are no different,” said Perdue, a senior scientist with the WHO’s global influenza program.

“So there’s no reason to lead us to believe that this sublineage is acting any differently than any of the other sublineages in terms of affecting humans.”

Dr. Juan Lubroth, head of infectious diseases for the FAO’s animal health service, said the variant bears watching, but doesn’t raise the level of alarm.

“The virus isn’t necessarily more pathogenic, more virulent. The fact that you have a virus that has mutated or has changed somewhat and that humans have become infected with the more dominant virus when it has occurred is logical, because that’s the virus that is circulating,” he said.

Lubroth said emergence of a new variant underscores the importance of conducting regular surveillance to look at what viruses are infecting poultry as well as the need to update poultry vaccines so that they protect against the viruses in circulation. He said, however, that the FAO is not certain Chinese manufacturers are taking this important step.

“We don’t have enough data from China to say that this is what is happening.” <snip>

Just The facts Mam

“I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts.” — Abraham Lincoln

And the second link …

H5N1 strain could start wave of bird flu outbreaks Mon Oct 30, 2006 4:10pm ET

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Scientists in Hong Kong and the United States have detected a new strain of H5N1 bird flu virus in China and warned it might have started another wave of outbreaks in poultry in Southeast Asia and move deeper into Eurasia.

The strain, called the “Fujian-like virus” because it was first isolated in China’s southern Fujian province in March 2005, has ‘’ increasingly been detected since October 2005 in poultry in six provinces in China, displacing other H5N1 strains. The strain might also have become resistant to vaccines, ‘’ which China began using on a large scale from September 2005 to protect poultry from H5N1, said the scientists.

The researchers are from the University of Hong Kong, including virologists Guan Yi and Malik Peiris, and Rob Webster of St Jude Children’s Research Hospital in the United States.

“The predominance of this Fujian-like virus appears to be responsible for the increased prevalence of H5N1 in poultry since October 2005 and recent human infection cases in China,” they said in an article published in the U.S.-based Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (www.pnas.org).

“It has already caused poultry outbreaks in Laos, Malaysia and Thailand, and human disease in Thailand. It is likely that this variant has already initiated a third wave of transmission throughout Southeast Asia and may spread further in Eurasia.”

<snip>

Utah_Megee – at 12:17

I would imagine you’re not going to get too many folks willing to discuss that topic in a public forum. But thanks anyway :)

Public works may have to address avian flu

By Julie Becker / Daily News staff writer / http://tinyurl.com/y6ot3h

Ask someone what the words “public works” mean to them and they might tell you something about snow plows, garbage trucks or water bills. But many may be unaware that avian flu pandemics and other emergencies make up a portion of the public works repertoire as well.

Chris Walsh, Director of Department of Public Works Operations in Beloit, said that on top of all their other duties, the public works staff are first-line responders in all emergency situations.

In the case of a pandemic outbreak or any other serious emergency, Walsh said it would be extremely difficult for the department to keep up with its regular duties, especially with a significantly smaller staff.

Walsh spoke, on behalf of the American Public Works Association, on the importance of preparing for emergencies at a Congressional briefing in Washington, D.C. Tuesday. And the Beloit department is currently doing just that.

When the avian flu became a bigger concern about a year and a half ago, the department initiated a thorough continuum planning process - in collaboration with other city and county public service providers - to hone their skills and pick their priorities. “We’re being very careful in how we prioritize our services,” Walsh said. “We have to think about which services we have to continue providing (in an emergency), and which we can eliminate.” <snip>

If an outbreak were to occur, dividing the city into quarantine zones and finding ways for infected workers to continue working without spreading the disease are some of the things the city and county would have to do.

The hospital also plays a major role in planning. Barb Kuska, co-chair of the Emergency Management Committee at Beloit Memorial Hospital, said each year they can apply for Hospital Preparedness grants through the U.S. Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) to make necessary improvements.

“The program was created in response to bioterrorism, but everybody realized early on that it was a multi-spectrum process,” Kuska said.

In the case of any pandemic, the hospital would have to deal with things like increasing capacity, providing isolation - HRSA grants have enabled the hospital to recently add 12 negative air pressure rooms - and having protective and decontamination equipment on hand, Kuska said. <snip>

“The community need to be developing their own personal emergency plans for their families,” she said. “That’s the most important thing right now.” <snip>

Japanese candidate offers ‘political courage’ in WHO race

Japanese WHO official Shigeru Omi, who helped set up a controversial warning against travel to southern China and Hong Kong during the SARS epidemic in 2003, has pledged to show “political courage” if he is elected head of the United Nations health agency.

[snip]

Asked for examples of political courage, Omi underlined his role in advising then WHO chief, Gro Harlem Brundtland, to issue a formal public warning against travel to China’s Guangdong province and Hong Kong on April 2, 2003.

It was the first time that the global health agency had ever issued a travel advisory to prevent the spread of a disease. The decision sparked a howl of protests from the countries concerned.

[snip]

Japanese WHO official Shigeru Omi, who helped set up a controversial warning against travel to southern China and Hong Kong during the SARS epidemic in 2003, has pledged to show “political courage” if he is elected head of the United Nations health agency.

[snip]

Omi said that Asian countries tackling H5N1 bird flu since 2003 were now split in two categories: one that had made good progress in cutting transmission in infected chickens, the other that was “not succesful” in doing so.

“In spite of strong political commitment… and so on. Everybody has good intentions, but there are two groups,” he added.

http://tinyurl.com/y2pfcp

The best-laid plans continue paving the way with good intentions to “the hot high and breathless place” - and, we’re still in the handbasket!

(Goes off to light a candle for Shigeru Omi, and, a big candle for Dr.Nabarro. Oh, and one for Abe Lincoln, too.)

Oregon, USA

County to hold flu pandemic drill

The Benton County Health Department and Emergency Management will collaborate with Samaritan Health Services and Oregon State University in a statewide pandemic flu drill from 8 a.m. to noon Wednesday.

[snip]

Community volunteers will enter Good Samaritan’s emergency department reporting “flu-like symptoms” in order to initiate the exercise. If individuals come to the hospital for a real emergency during this time, the drill will stop immediately and will not resume until the emergency has been addressed.

“This is a great opportunity for Samaritan, and our community to learn where we need to improve our pandemic flu plan,” said Bob Vanderford, Samaritan Health Services emergency management director.

[snip]

For more information, see www.oregon.gov/DHS/ph/acd/flu/panflu.shtml.

http://tinyurl.com/yjadpc

Kansas, USA

Awareness, knowledge keys to fighting pandemic, seasonal flu

If you’re prepared for the upcoming flu season, chances are you’re prepared to handle a pandemic outbreak.

That’s what Kansas health leaders discussed during a public flu forum in Emporia.

State Health Director Howard Rodenberg said the basic hygiene and prevention techniques used during the seasonal flu will help families protect themselves from the pandemic.

http://tinyurl.com/yjfta6

Oh jeez, sorry Kansans, but your health leaders are so… well apply whatever adjective is most appropriate.

Illinois, USA

Norovirus cancels flu pandemic meeting at Isle of Capri

A bi-state planning meeting on pandemic flu preparedness scheduled for today at the Isle of Capri Casino was postponed because sterilization of the facility is still under way after an outbreak of norovirus that was first reported earlier this month.

[snip]

The meeting that was scheduled for today likely will be rescheduled. The purpose of the seminar was to share general information on pandemic flu and to give local leaders the opportunity to share ways they are preparing for a possible pandemic flu outbreak in their agency, Ms. Hall said.

http://tinyurl.com/yekdfh

Most ironic story of the day.

Michigan, USA

Pandemic drill Wednesday will feature vaccine, not a placebo

Is Mason County prepared to perform mass inoculation in the case of a pandemic?

Mason County Emergency Management Coordinator Wally Taranko hopes to answer that question. The county is taking part in a mass inoculation drill Wednesday at Ludington High School and will be administering flu vaccines to volunteers.

[snip]

We’re going to inoculate 200 people in a two-hour timespan … using medical protocols,” Taranko said.

The Mason County Sheriff’s Office, Ludington Police Department, Michigan State Police, District 10 Health Department, Memorial Medical Center, the West Shore Chapter of the American Red Cross, Ludington High School, Mason-Oceana 911, Life EMS and several fire department representatives will be on hand for the drill.

“This is a drill, but it’s something we would do in the case of a pandemic outbreak,” Taranko said.

http://tinyurl.com/y3marh

Vaccine Rationing

Pandemic vaccine rationing proposal favors the young

In a worst-case influenza pandemic, without enough vaccine for everyone, who should stand closer to the front of the line: a 25-year-old water utility worker or a healthy 75-year-old?

Public health officials may have to make difficult decisions such as this, and a Minnesota health ethics group, in publishing recommendations about pandemic vaccine allocation, hopes to get conversations going now, rather than during a crisis.

The vaccine allocation recommendations released last week by the Minnesota Center for Health Care Ethics (MCHCE) look much different from the ones proposed by the federal government. The vaccine rationing recommendation in federal pandemic plan is aimed at saving the most lives, and might favor the healthy 75-year-old over the 25-year-old utility worker.

The Minnesota group’s approach is designed to prevent not only deaths due to influenza, but also deaths related to public infrastructure breakdowns. It is weighted toward those whose immune systems are more likely to respond strongly to a pandemic flu vaccine. As such, it would put the 25-year-old utility worker ahead of the 75-year-old.

[snip]

 The group said the deadly infrastructure collapse that occurred during the Hurricane Katrina disaster influenced them to seek ways to mitigate other effects of the pandemic, not just the flu deaths. “Seeking only to vaccinate those at high risk of influenza-related mortality leaves them and every other Minnesotan unprotected from death due to breakdowns in basic healthcare, public health, and public safety infrastructures,” the report says.

The report emphasizes that approaches to vaccine allocation differ because of different assumptions about pandemic severity. The federal recommendation is based on a moderate pandemic, while the Minnesota group’s plan is based on a severe pandemic, like that of 1918–19, along with an inadequate supply of vaccine.

This is the difference between States that have a chance of survival and those that are doomed. If your state follows CDC guidelines, your odds of surviving a severe pandemic are much lower than if you live in a state that disregards the CDC guidelines and has intelligent public health officials, like Minnesota.

Living in a state/city with intelligent planners maybe the difference between life and death.

Anon at 8:04 Thank you for a clear, concise explanation for a very complicated, academic research process that must take place to quantify what is going on as these virus’s develop. I read as most of you also have the article in Scientific American today and let’s just say, “It’s not casual reading material.” Thanks everybody, this site helps me maintain perspective, whatever that is!!!!

Monotreme, Thanks for returning news to the news thread.

On the fence and leaning – at 22:49

You’re welcome.

Pennsylvannia, USA

Hanover Hospital ready for pandemic

Freer said the secret to preventing an avian flu pandemic is to control it early on.

And Hanover Hospital has formed a Pandemic Planning Steering Committee to better the response to any such outbreak in the York-Adams area.

Freer spoke as part of an hour-long presentation at the Hanover Community Health & Education Center. Dr. Joe Bellino, director of safety and security at Hanover Hospital, also spoke. About 40 people attended.

[snip]

Already at Hanover Hospital, people with respiratory illnesses are asked if they’ve recently traveled to any of the Asian countries that have had outbreaks of the avian flu virus, which mainly affects the respiratory system and can cause a person’s lungs to close up.

http://tinyurl.com/y8m2no

Good luck “controlling” a pandemic.

Pennsylvania, USA

Preparing for a flu pandemic

One contender, called H5N1, has already emerged. Its track record is short but bleak, Carole Heilman told an audience at East Stroudsburg University on Monday. Heilman, director of the division of microbiology and infectious diseases at the National Institutes of Health, came to ESU as part of Sanofi Pasteur’s distinguished speaker program to talk about pandemic preparedness.

“It’s not going away and it’s spreading,” Heilman said of H5N1.

This flu strain is found in the fecal matter of birds, chiefly ducks and migratory birds, and spreads to humans who are in close contact with these animals. In humans, it incubates for about eight days. “You could be infected and not even know it,” Heilman said.

[snip]

As dangerous as H5N1 could be, it has not yet become a formal pandemic. To do so, it has to satisfy three conditions. It has already met two of them: H5N1 recently presented itself and infected humans. Now, it needs only spread easily from human to human.

Evidence suggests that this has begun happening, with transmissions documented in Indonesia. But Heilman said such cases were the result of intimate contact with disease carriers, rather than more casual interactions.

[snip]

The lessons of the SARS outbreak in Toronto offer a simpler way to deal with a future pandemic, and one that has been endorsed by scientific journals and the World Health Organization: avoiding human contact.

“One of the things that quelled SARS in Toronto was sequestration,” Heilman said. “People stayed home.”

http://tinyurl.com/ya8ysx

‘California, USA

News briefs from Southern California

County health officials urged school districts and government agencies to continue preparing for the avian flu, even as the sickness’ spread elsewhere in the world slows down.

“It might happen tomorrow. It might happen a year from now. It might happen five years from now,” Sadina Reynaldo, an epidemiologist with the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, said Monday at a pandemic flu conference.

Contrary to health experts’ expectations, the avian H5N1 virus is slowing in Europe and is unlikely to hit the United States soon, Reynaldo said. But she said government officials and the public should still continue to prepare for a pandemic.

http://tinyurl.com/yc9hgp

“One of the things that quelled SARS in Toronto was sequestration,” Heilman said. “People stayed home.”

And to do that you have to be prepared with enough food, water and meds, (heat if in north).

Monoteme: I thought I was good at tracking the news. I was wrong. You are most excellent. To one and all tonight and always: THANKYOU! I regret I have no more to contribute but this most sincere thank you.

if there is no new News to report= then it’s a new day.

I’m new here, and I don’t want my grandkids to wind up in any order. These kids need to stay the top and be the top. IF WE need to stay home during a pandemic=- that’s what we’ll do.

I will be about another 30 to 40 minutes before I can complete the News Summary, then I will create a new thread.

If it is ‘urgent’ post here in the meantime, otherwise please hold off to the new thread starts

Cheers

rph: Welcome to the Fluwiki. You will find the information here useful in ways you could never imagine. Anything and everything about any kind of self-sufficiency is here in addition to breaking influenza news and forum topics on just about any subject even if only tangentially related to H5N1.

One thing, though…while everyone here is happy that you have used a “name” since hearing from hundreds of different “anonymous” types is a source of aggravation for many, you may want to consider a slightly modified name. We have someone who posts using “RPh” who is a registered pharmacist and many of us look for his/her posts to find out about drug-related issues, so, unless you want to be bombarded with questions about how long you can continue to use a certain drug after its expiration date, you may want to use something that is more uniquely you.

We’re all glad for you and for your grandchildren that you have found the wiki! Careful, though…it can become an obsession. :)

Since this thread is already closed to news, the following is a response and message to Monotreme

Monotreme – at 22:30

This is the difference between States that have a chance of survival and those that are doomed. If your state follows CDC guidelines, your odds of surviving a severe pandemic are much lower than if you live in a state that disregards the CDC guidelines and has intelligent public health officials, like Minnesota.

Thank you for as always your most excellent reporting and gathering together of State plans. Do you live anywhere near Seattle, Lincoln, Nebraska, or Syracuse, NY? With all that you know, you would be an excellent candidate to give your input to the Community Control Measurs consultation being run together with the CDC.

See this thread for details.

BIRD FLU: VIRUS NEAR GROSSETO, ITALYHUNDREDS OF WILD DUCKS CULLED

(AGI) - Grosseto, Nov. 1 - “After the discovery of avian influenza yesterday in the Grosseto area, hundreds of animals will be put down. Late yesterday evening, the Health Ministry asked the National Avian Influenza Centre for its advice concerning the whether the ministerial decree DM 22/9/2000 should be urgently applied regarding the wild duck breeding grounds on which bird flu has been found, with the H5 strain and of the N type, still a phase of definition, but having ruled out that it is the “N1″, the most contagious.

The ministerial decree referred to provides for the culling of all the animals on the farm. The Health Ministry made the decision along with the Tuscany regional government and the healthcare body of Grosseto on the way to go about the matter in this specific case, and supplied instructions for the culling itself. In addition to the putting down of the wild ducks, the ministerial orders provide for other measures to limit the likelihood of the spread of the virus, which consist mostly in the establishing of a surveillance zone with a kilometre radius around the farm in question, surveillance which will begin immediately after the ordinance by the mayor of Grosseto and which will last for three weeks after the culling. In the zone the entire bird population will once again be checked, even birds intended for use by single families, as was done previously, since the entire area is inside or very close to a humid zone used by migratory birds. For the period in question, all the animals checked are to be considered under seizure and will have to be kept on the farms, prohibited from coming in or going out, including both the birds themselves and their products, meaning eggs and chicks.

The culling of the farm-bred wild ducks will be carried out within a few days by a specialized firm, and the bodies will be destroyed and buried on the land where they are found after having their bodies disinfected. The owners of the animals culled will be reimbursed for the market value of the animals, established by an ad hoc committee provided for by law in the case of forced culling. “(AGI) .

http://tinyurl.com/tvwvl

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