Forum: News Reports for November 2

(If you want any of the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 1 November 2006

Lookout Posts – here are the links (if no Lookout Post exists, it will not be highlighted)

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions or to add news

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)

(There are separate threads for India, Indonesia, and Nepal because of their current situation. See News Summary below.)

Summary of News for 1 November 2006

(From WHO as at 31 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 152 (2006 – 109 with 74 deaths)

India

• See separate thread for discussion (link India III )

Indonesia

• Three more suspect patients in hospital Bandung (link http://tinyurl.com/w2cke)
• Separate thread for outbreak discussion (link Indonesia Outbreak XIX )
• Separate thread for Summary of cases (link Case Summaries and Maps )

Iran

• FAO first bird flu workshop held in Tehran (link http://tinyurl.com/y22vhr)

Italy

• Bird flu (low pathogenic) found near Grosseto, culling commenced (link http://tinyurl.com/tvwvl and http://tinyurl.com/yjgqsm)
• See Lookout Post (Southern and Southwest Europe) for some translations of news items

Nepal

• See separate thread for discussion (link Nepal )

South Africa

• EU allows SA ostrich imports (link http://tinyurl.com/y5jk8r)

United Arab Emirates

• Mystery illness, health authorities investigating (link http://www.gulfnews.com/)

United Kingdom

• UK experts to help draw up pandemic flu model (link http://tinyurl.com/y4bugz)
• Horizon documentary to screen BBC2 Tuesday 7 Nov (link http://tinyurl.com/yyc78j)
• British scientists create new bird flu map (link http://www.daelnet.co.uk/)
• Flat keyboard could reduce MRSA (link http://tinyurl.com/yj9t4z)

United States of America

• Navajo Nation, VA, to conduct pandemic trial (link http://tinyurl.com/yb8u5p)
• CDC procures avian flu vaccine amid new pandemic warnings (link http://tinyurl.com/tmqx3 and http://tinyurl.com/y6rexw)
• (California) L.A. officials warned to prepare for avian flu (link http://tinyurl.com/sdej6)

General

• Information on bird flu cases poorly recorded, scientists say (link http://tinyurl.com/y9lzm9)
• Ecologists will study West Nile virus, malaria, bird flu and other infectious diseases (link http://tinyurl.com/y3u4fr)
• WHO blasts Chinese ministry for not sharing new bird flu strain samples (link http://tinyurl.com/skq24 and http://tinyurl.com/yxacg9)
• New bird flu virus strain emerges: study – ducks susceptible to BF year-round (link http://tinyurl.com/y3cvxy)
• Recombinomics commentary regarding Qinghai-Fujian strains (link http://tinyurl.com/yb7ksd)
• Flu roundup: China’s dirty secret … tip of iceberg (link http://tinyurl.com/yl4jv4)
• Encyclopaedia of virology – long text, reference source for every virus (link http://tinyurl.com/yag8tg)
• WHO: H5N1 cases in Turkey targeted children, youth (ProMed Mail) (link http://tinyurl.com/ylo4yt)
• Bird-flu infected dog suggests human risk from pets, study says (link http://tinyurl.com/tk6eb)

Link to news thread for 1 November (link News Reports for November 1 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

Vaccination program keeps new bird flu strain out of Vietnam

Mr Trinh Quan Huan, deputy minister of the Health Ministry (link http://tinyurl.com/yjg8pb)

Poultry inoculations have halted a virulent strain of bird flu detected by scientists in Hong Kong and the US from surfacing in Vietnam, said a health official at a conference on virus control yesterday. Trinh Quan Huan, deputy minister of the Health Ministry, confirmed over 100 million poultry which had been inoculated under a government program in Vietnam were still immune to the disease, which meant the super strain had yet to enter the country.

The new bird-flu virus strain, known as “Fujian-like virus” first discovered in China’s southern Fujian province in March 2005, has recently plagued several neighboring countries, including China, Thailand, Laos and Malaysia.

Also at the conference, a partnership was set up to support Vietnam in the national operational program for bird flu control to 2010, also called Green Book, …

<snip> Researchers said the Fujian variant had already initiated a new wave of transmission throughout Southeast Asia and might spread further in Eurasia due to its resistance to current vaccines which protected poultry from H5N1 virus.

(USA) Oregon health teams drill for flu chaos

Pandemic - Hospitals, school districts and other agencies are testing their readiness for a widespread outbreak Thursday, November 02, 2006 PATRICK O’NEILL

An influenza pandemic has raged in Oregon for the past two weeks. Twenty percent of the work force is out with the flu. Hospitals are overflowing with sick patients and are running out of ventilators and supplies.

How do hospitals, schools and businesses get treatment and vaccines to those who need them most?

To find out, state and local health officials are conducting the largest and most complex drill yet in Oregon to test the readiness for an influenza pandemic. More on this story at http://tinyurl.com/y53al8

(UK) Tyneside scientist’s bird flu mission

Nov 2 2006 By Liz Hands Health Correspondent, The Journal

Scientists from the North-East are turning to the rainforests of South America in a bid to find a cure for pandemic illnesses like bird flu.

Professor Malcolm Young from Newcastle University has joined forces with a Brazilian drugs company to look for plants which can be developed as new medicines.

A drug discovery firm set up by Prof Young, e-Therapeutics, will be developing a joint research facility, with Brazilian company Grupo TCI, close to the Amazonian and Atlantic rainforests.

Researchers will start testing substances from the millions of plants in the most diverse ecosystem on the planet.

Yesterday Prof Young said the move was necessary because the number of new drugs being developed in the world is dwindling. More at http://tinyurl.com/yb632p

COMMENT: On the subject of Fujian strain from China, I’m reading various press reports as well as the PNAS paper, which I will write up on a different thread later today. I’m posting this here cos its partly news but from Chinese media.

Suffice it to say that the Chinese media in Hong Kong is giving this rather wide coverage. Guan Yi is quoted as saying that this strain covers large areas, including urban centers. Also that 4 provinces with human cases have not reported poultry outbreaks.

He is also quoted as saying that this strain is ‘highly virulent’, which I’m not sure is a scientifically based description or a different way of using the phrase in the Chinese language. I’m going to try and hunt up any data on virulence later.

In addition, the percentage of H5N1 positive samples that belong to this strain has increased from 1% in July - Sep 2005 to 95% in April - June 2006. This means that this strain has essentially wiped out the multiple sublineages that we wrote (and worried) about before.

If we were worried about multiple sublineages, I find one single dominant strain even more worrying.

So, I read this to say the mixture of seasonal and avian influenza is the “Fujian” virus, which has been proven in China. Am I interpreting this article correctly?
http://tinyurl.com/ye3scm
Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari asked the community to guard against the bird flu virus that often was contagious in the season pancaroba like at this time. Although the bird flu virus in Indonesia still the kind for a long time continue to have to be guarded against. “Immediately the vaccination or the immunisation.” The normal flu had his vaccination, said Menkes in Jakarta, recently. In the season pancaroba, the breeding and surviving bird flu virus older because of the temperature of air that colder. Together with went him the change in the season from dry to the rainy season, the community usually more susceptible terjangkit influenza. This condition enlarged the possibility of the bird flu virus of marrying the normal flu virus so as to produce the virus that more raging. “So don’t have the marriage between normal flu and bird flu,” stressed Menkes. The virus that bermutasi like was depicted above has been proven was in China. The local circle of the health expert acknowledged him as Fujian bird flu. According to them, this new kind virus was more resistant and deadly the poultry also humankind

Commonground – at 06:36

So, I read this to say the mixture of seasonal and avian influenza is the “Fujian” virus, which has been proven in China. Am I interpreting this article correctly

No, the Fujian strain is not a reassortant between H5N1 and seasonal flu. It’s a new strain of H5N1.

New strains of H5N1 has been formed continuously for the past few years, and previous studies have shown them to be increasingly virulent towards mammals. How virulent this one is, I’m still trying to see if there is any data.

A quick note from the PNAS paper, the Fujian strain is sensitive to amantadine and oxeltamivir.

oseltamivir (just in case we want to do a search later in the game)

China says no evidence of new bird flu strain

Thu Nov 2, 2006 1:15 PM GMT

BEIJING (Reuters) - “China has found no evidence of a new strain of H5N1 bird flu in its southern provinces and said on Thursday there was no need to share virus samples with the World Health Organization (WHO).

Scientists in Hong Kong and the United States said in a report released this week they had detected a new strain of bird flu, first isolated in the southern Chinese province of Fujian last year, that may have started outbreaks in Southeast Asia. But China rejected the report, published in the U.S.-based Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (www.pnas.org), saying there was no evidence of major changes to the virus since 2004.

“Up to now, the bird flu viruses selected from the south share a high uniformity,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao told a regular news conference.

“There has no marked change in the biological characteristics of the organisms.”

- excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/yelqa8

Continued Hoarding Of H5N1 Sequences

Recombinomics Commentary

November 2, 2006 - excerpts

“The above acknowledgment by WHO of the potential importance of minute changes in H5N1 is a welcome change.  In the past, WHO updates have focused on the lack of major changes, such as the acquisition of human genes via reassortment.  However, there has been no data to support such an acquisition by H5N1 and the H1N1 1918 pandemic also did not involve reassortment.  Although the basic tenets of influenza genetics cite reassortment as the source of genetic shift and random mutations as the source of genetic drift, the H5N1 clearly demonstrates evolution by recombination.

Researchers in China have acknowledged the recombination in H5N1 in their earlier submissions to Genbank entitled, “A cohort of AIV H5N1 subtypes isolated from wild aquatic birds and domestic poultry revealed rapid transmission, frequent reassortment, and identifiable recombination events”. 

Sequences released last month confirmed the recombination, but researchers from St Jude and Hong Kong University have failed to acknowledge such changes, even though recombination was obvious in sequences from Hong Kong in 2002 in PB2, PB1, PA, and NP.  The sequences released this week also had evidence of recombination with the Qinghai strain, as well as obvious recombination in genes that were closely related to sequences released by researchers at the Beijing Genome Institute.

The recombination provides a roadmap of prior and future interactions resulting from dual infections and the exchange of genetic information, which is the main driving force behind H5N1 evolution.  Thus, a full and current database is essential for monitoring the evolution of H5N1 as well as the development of vaccines against emerging genomes.

The complaints against China are justified. 

The hoarding of these sequences by the major sequencers worldwide is cause for concern.  The sequences provide critical information on the interactions and transport of H5N1 as well as the genetic diversity, which drives the evolution.  The release of full sequences from current and past H5N1 isolates, which can be done at no charge via the NIAID sequencing project, is long overdue.”

http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html

East China province reinstates bird flu monitoring

www.chinaview.cn

2006–11–02 18:10:57

JINAN, Nov. 2 (Xinhua) — “Shandong Province, east China, has reinstated round-the-clock bird flu monitoring to prevent possible outbreaks as more and more migratory birds fly over the province on their way further south.

Li Zhanpeng, head of the provincial wildlife protection center, said that all 153 monitoring stations in the province were ordered to report on a daily basis.”

http://tinyurl.com/ycsn3d

Possibility of avian influenza epidemic a worry

http://tinyurl.com/y4k26f

It may not be appropriate to bracket the leisure of the tourism industry with the menace of the avian influenza epidemic. It certainly is not a pretty comparison.

“Pretty or not, it is a fact that we are all have to deal with right now,” Ngurah Mahardika stated.

Mahardika is the team leader of the Avian Influenza Detection and Identification Program, an ongoing, government-funded project carried out by the school of veterinary medicine at Udayana University.

Since late 2005, Mahardika and his team have conducted extensive surveys in Bali, West Nusa Tenggara and East Nusa Tenggara, searching for the dangerous virus.

The results are scary: The virus has infected poultry populations in 37 of the total 55 subdistricts in Bali. “We took samples in 152 villages and we found infected poultry population in 53 villages,” he said.

The bad news didn’t stop there. Recently, following a series of tests on 800 pigs across the island, his team has identified over 20 pigs infected by the virus. Back in 2005, when they tested 400 pigs, no infection was found.

Being a virus expert — he holds a PhD in molecular virology from Germany’s Justus-Leibig University — Mahardika knows perfectly well the dangerous implications of that recent development.

“It means that the virus has succeed in inching closer to the human population,” he said.

So far, there hasn’t been any reported case of the virus infecting the human population of the island. Yet, it is a grave, tragic error to think that it will forever ignore an opportunity to infect a new host.

Klatu – at 08:54

China says no evidence of new bird flu strain

Thu Nov 2, 2006 1:15 PM GMT

BEIJING (Reuters) - “China has found no evidence of a new strain of H5N1 bird flu in its southern provinces and said on Thursday there was no need to share virus samples with the World Health Organization (WHO).

COMMENT

This would be the reason for doing a lot of research before making an announcement that could be disputed. If the affected country still pretends there’s nothing wrong, at least you know everyone else will believe you.

China denounces reported discovery of new bird flu strain as inaccurate

02.11.2006 / Pravda / http://tinyurl.com/upcuf

China’s Agriculture Ministry on Thursday disputed a scientific study about a pervasive, newly discovered strain of bird flu in China, calling the report inaccurate.

The findings, released this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, said the new strain called H5N1 Fujian-like was found in almost all poultry outbreaks and some human cases in southern China and was now becoming prevalent in Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand.

“China has taken note of the study about the variation of the bird flu virus in southern China published by an academic journal abroad,” the ministry said in a statement read aloud to reporters at a Foreign Ministry briefing. “The comments they made do not conform with facts.”

The Agriculture Ministry said H5N1 had been monitored in southern China since 2004 and that there had not been any significant mutations to the virus.

“The biological characteristics of the virus do not show apparent changes,” said the statement.

The retort follows renewed criticism by the World Health Organization that the ministry has not shared bird flu samples with the international health body since 2004. Sharing is key in helping health experts track the diseases and ultimately develop vaccines.

The Agriculture Ministry defended its actions. “We have shared all the information related to bird flu virus and diseases to international organizations in a timely manner,” the statement said.

<snip>

The study released in the journal Tuesday by Chinese and American scientists charted the spread of the new strain by testing geese and ducks found in live markets in six southern Chinese beginning in June 2005, reports AP.

Over the course of the year, the new strain became more pervasive, the study said. Among the 108 samples taken from poultry in April and June 2006, 103 or 95 percent were infected with the Fujian-like strain, the study said.

Well!! It seems that the Chinese Government is going to put their new Director General in a corner right out of the ‘starting gate’.

It reminds me of the schoolyard when we were kids…choose…choose who your friends are.

A delicate situation is developing…many must feel a pandemic is imminent for the rhetoric to be so open…

…The new director general may gamble his/her future moral authority on the response to this one issue in the first few days of tenure.

Bottom line…another dumb move by the Chinese Government…a conspiracy…maybe

Has anyone else seen anything on this news report coming out of North Carolina. It is being reported on WLOS TV station in Asheville, NC.

A possible outbreak of the flu forces Yancey County school officials to cancel classes through early next week.

http://www.wlos.com/

bird flu virus and diseases -doesn’t cover “related” H5N1 mammal or human virus samples?

NEWS - WHO - http://tinyurl.com/yypcer - This just appeared on the WHO site, I haven’t read it yet.

Influenza research at the human and animal interface - Report of a WHO working group - Geneva, Switzerland, 21–22 September 2006 - WHO/CDS/EPR/GIP/2006.3 - English [pdf 98kb]

Contents

- Introduction
- Executive summary
- Detection and diagnosis of human H5N1 infections
- Protecting humans: vaccines and antiviral drugs
- Surveillance in birds and other animals: assessing the coming risks
- Deciphering the virulence and pathogenicity of H5N1 infections in humans
- List of participants

WHO REPORT – Extracts

Introduction

The present severe crisis with H5N1 infections similarly brings a need for cohesion and urgency in collaborative research efforts.

Nonetheless, the group had little difficulty in agreeing on the most pressing research needs. It was further acknowledged that the seriousness of the present situation, including the risk that a pandemic virus might emerge, is not likely to diminish in the near future.

Executive summary

A simple, rapid, robust and reliable test, suitable for use in the field or at the patient’s bedside, is urgently needed.

A genetic predisposition for infection is suspected based on data from rare instances of human-to-human transmission in genetically-related persons.

The development of a pandemic vaccine has become more difficult following the divergence of circulating viruses into distinct genetic and antigenic groups. To date, results from clinical trials of candidate pandemic vaccines have not been promising

Although resistance to amantadine is now widespread, the possibility exists that these resistant strains may be replaced by fully susceptible strains as the virus continues to evolve.

Evidence was presented for a change in virus shedding patterns, with increased shedding from the respiratory tract rather than the cloaca. Thus, for surveillance purposes, a corresponding change in sampling strategies – including both cloacal and pharyngeal swabs – is called for to get a true picture of the situation.

Recently, studies have demonstrated that the virus is now moving both ways in relay transmission, from poultry to migratory birds and back again.
>><<

Niagara County: DEC UPDATE ON (LPAI) AVIAN INFLUENZA WILD BIRD SAMPLING

Samples Collected From Mallards in Niagara County Indicate Low Pathogenic Virus; Finding Poses No Risk to Human Health

ALBANY, NY — (11/01/2006) — The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) today announced test results which indicate that a virus found in samples collected earlier this month from wild mallard ducks in Niagara County was low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI). LPAI has been detected several times in wild birds in North America and poses no risk to human health.” - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/ykbx5b

Niagara County-New York - low path

A mild, mostly harmless strain of bird flu has been discovered in live mallard ducks in Niagara County. Samples collected from two ducks at the Tonawanda Wildlife Management Area tested positive for the H5N1 virus, but the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation stresses that this strain poses no risk to humans, and only mildly sickens the birds

http://tinyurl.com/susn3

Comment
Klatu – at 10:01
DennisC – at 10:01

Someone might want to forward this little sentence from the WHO report above to the labs and public relations outfits which investigated these mallards H5N1 infection:

Furthermore, domestic ducks and geese – and not chickens – have been identified as the true vectors of disease transmission in poultry.

Not sure if this has been put on the news thread yet or not.

WHO: H5N1 cases in Turkey targeted children, youth

…The disease struck only children younger than 16, even though their parents had probably been exposed to the same probable source of infection, infected poultry, according to the Oct 27 issue of WHO’s Weekly Epidemiological Record. “To some extent, this reflects the same age distribution observed globally, where 50.5% of cases occurred among people aged <20 years, and it suggests that age-related factors may influence susceptibility to the disease,” the report states.

Of the four case-patients described in the report who died, all were teenagers, while all the survivors were younger children, aged 3 to 9 years. “This reflects closely the global situation where the highest case-fatality rate (73%) has been observed in the 10–19-year age group,” the article says. …

A total of 21 human H5N1 cases had been reported in January on the basis of tests in a Turkish laboratory. But the WHO recognized only 12 cases that were confirmed by a reference laboratory in the United Kingdom.

http://tinyurl.com/yeld4r

“Although resistance to amantadine is now widespread, the possibility exists that these resistant strains may be replaced by fully susceptible strains as the virus continues to evolve.”..

give me a break!! …yes and though it seems remote, I may win a Nobel prize someday…

Get off your magic pills…

…vaccines don’t work…they don’t work in seasonal flu (unless you consider less than five percent success a success) and so far China Flu vaccine has been an abysmal failure.

…and antivirals aren’t going to work beyond the first few weeks of a pandemic.

Every person who has treated THESE ANIMAL DISEASES in animals, knows the damage is done before your antivirals can stop it or in other words, reach effective blood concentrations…even if they were effective they will have zero effect preventing 90% of the deaths.

Accept the fact you are wrong…and start stockpiling pharmaceuticals that will save lives…broad spectrum antiotics, oral electrolyte powders, statins, prednisolone, acetominophen, advil etc. etc. etc.

You are wasting billions of dollars that are being thrown at wall hoping something will stick…well, two years down the road nothing has stuck…it is still all falling off the wall.

Give your head a shake…walk into a wall several times if need be…AND CHANGE YOUR TACT.

Tom DVM at 9:40-A rigorously done, peer-reviewed study and a bald denial by China Inc.

Looks like SARS all over again.

China will not be jumping this track. We must give up on their help.

From 10:01: mostly harmless. Got to love it. “Mostly” not “Totally”.

TomDVM - at 9:40: A delicate situation is developing…many must feel a pandemic is imminent for the rhetoric to be so open…

Interestingly, I was just urging my daughter to sign up for a class on games theory at an MIT weekend for younger kids. She was asking what that was, and this morning I was able to use what is playing out in the press between China and the WHO as a perfect example.

It sounds more like a desperate situation to me, though, than a delicate one to have them shouting at each other at this volume after years of the tense ballet we have all witnessed.

Official website

2008 Chinese OLYMPIC$

http://en.olympic.cn/

UN officials: Migratory birds not major cause of flu transmission

www.chinaview.cn 2006–11–02 23:28:35

NANCHANG, Nov. 2 (Xinhua) — UN officials on Thursday said migratory birds do not play a major role in the transmission of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1. They made the remarks at the first international Living Lakes Conference in this capital of east China’s Jiangxi Province.

Dr. Vincent Martin, an official with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (UNFAO), said the spread of bird flu is mainly the result of the world’s fast and unregulated development of animal production to meet the increased demand for animal protein.”

http://tinyurl.com/ycsn3d

This is from the WHO document from FrenchieGirl’s link:

Recent evolution of the H5N1 virus in poultry in China.

A presentation from the University of Hong Kong reviewed findings from a surveillance network that covers some 4 billion birds in China. These findings indicate that the virus has become endemic and is continuing to evolve. The Z genotype of the virus remains dominant. In migratory birds, the Qinghai Lake outbreak changed the epidemiology in mid-2005, and this change signalled the progressive westward spread of Qinghai Lake viruses and their descendants. Surveillance over the past 24 months showed a peak in virus activity during the month of January, followed by a decline in virus activity in April. The situation is severe and not yet fully under control.

During the past year, more than 1,300 H5N1 isolates have been obtained from poultry in southern China. Prevalence is higher in domestic ducks and geese than in chickens, and highly pathogenic virus was being found in apparently healthy birds. Most of these isolates belonged to the dominant Z genotype. In southern China, viruses related to the Fujian-like lineage of the Z genotype were found in 80% of the isolates and that figure has recently risen to 95%, indicating that, in southern China, Fujian-like viruses are replacing other virus lineages and becoming the dominant lineage within the genotype.

To manage this situation, the whole poultry population will need to be vaccinated, accompanied by monitoring of effectiveness of the vaccination programs.

COMMENT:

I can’t understand the logic of the last sentence, “To manage this situation, the whole poultry population will need to be vaccinated”

What are they trying to say? The seroconversion from the current vaccinations is only 16%, what else do you think they are trying to achieve with more vaccination?

AND, this suggestion of more vaccination is NOT in the PNAS paper, which this portion of the report is supposed to be referring to. ie every sentence of the above quote verifies what the PNAS paper is saying except this last sentence. I wonder who wrote this and what is the purpose? Trying to appear that this is being suggested by the Webster-HKU group?

anon_22 – at 11:09 wrote:

“What are they trying to say?”

 What we’ve got here is failure to communicate.


 Cool Hand Luke, 1967

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strother_Martin

:-)

Klatu, that was one of my favorite movies. Not enjoyable, just profound.

Sumatra

Monitor Written Bird Flu by editorial staff Sinar Indonesia

November 02, 2006 at 08:06 AM - (excerpt-software translation)

Medan (SIB) the Section Head the Health of Prop North Sumatra Dr Hj Fatni Sulani instructed.

“Moreover to anticipate the assumption of the spreading of the bird flu virus, better the citizen before burying the kept poultry that died suddenly better be done by the extermination by means of burning him first.

However although being not yet found by the case of the assumption of bird flu to humankind in Tanjungbalai, the official of the health was alerted directly to the location and coordinated Officially the North Sumatran Health in order to anticipates the possibility of the existence of the citizen who was attacked.”

http://www.hariansib.com/content/view/16055/1/

FAO Report - There’s an interesting short report on the FAO site, dated October 2006 - http://tinyurl.com/yce6fw

It remains possible that H5N1 occurrence in Europe will recur – in, for example, the winter of 2006–2007. Should this occur, it is also possible that it will be with less intensity because occurrences of outbreaks to the east have also been less intense.

At the end of the report, there’s a link to the USGS Ecological Research Center, where you can visualize in almost real time the migrations of whooper swans, swan geese and bar-headed geese in Asia. If you use the link direct from the publication, you’ll need to remove the “i” at the end of the address, that’s a typo. The proper link is here: http://tinyurl.com/ym2dtd

COMMENT

FrenchieGirl – at 11:32

It remains possible that H5N1 occurrence in Europe will recur – in, for example, the winter of 2006–2007. Should this occur, it is also possible that it will be with less intensity because occurrences of outbreaks to the east have also been less intense.

Someone needs to tell them we should be less worried about the ‘intensity’ of outbreaks, since the new worry is asymptomatic ducks and geese, not dying birds…

Scooba – at 09:45,

About 250 students have gone home sick with flu-like symptoms at two schools and several child-care centers this week.

My, looks like it might be a nasty flu season.

Klatu – at 11:01 - UN officials: Migratory birds not major cause of flu transmission

Actually, this is not quite what the WHO report mentioned above says (http://tinyurl.com/yypcer), page 2 of the executive summary, penultimate paragraph:

Furthermore, domestic ducks and geese – and not chickens – have been identified as the true vectors of disease transmission in poultry. Recently, studies have demonstrated that the virus is now moving both ways in relay transmission, from poultry to migratory birds and back again. This finding might help explain some of the continuing geographical spread.

The quoted Dr. Vincent Martin, an official with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (UNFAO), was _not_ on the list of participants to the WHO Working Group.

As for what the FAO report says (http://tinyurl.com/yce6fw): Current information suggests that poultry are primarily responsible for the development of massive virus loads associated with outbreaks and high mortality at farms, ’but that wild birds may serve as the vector to transport H5N1 HPAI away from the farm thus introducing the virus to new geographic locations.‘ It is believed that amplification of disease in domestic birds and movements of wild birds may form one synergic mechanism responsible for the intercontinental spread of H5N1, along with both legal and illegal trade. In this review, we suggest that the spillover of HPAI from poultry to wild birds and back to poultry providing a powerful mechanism for rapid, major, geographical expansion of H5N1.

Off-topic-comment

Commonground – at 10:37 The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy had an entry for the planet Earth, two words; Mostly Harmless.

Slides for the IOM Workshop are up Modeling Community Containment

Yay!

More stuff to read….

Frenchie Girl. 12:08

Once again, in my opinion, regulators appear to be playing politics instead of discussing regulatory medicine.

The subtle message here is that it is all the migratory waterfowl’s fault…

…China Flu is not being spread by the Chinese Government through the inadvertent or directed sale of poultry or poultry products from infected farms that are sold instead of being culled.

The ethical way to comment on these things is to say that although it appears that migratory birds may be the true vectors, many of the outbreaks on farms may be in addition due to the transit and movement of poultry.

We should not underestimate the pressures and influence bought and paid for by the industry…

…and by the way, an industry no longer remotely controlled by farmers or in any way reminiscent of the family farm.

Thanks for the information Scooba. Isn’t it odd that they are closing two schools due to the flu; regardless of how many are out sick? I don’t know of schools being closed before due to the flu and I’m 42, so I have been around for a little while. Are they that worried right now???

http://tinyurl.com/t749v

Genetic disposition suspected for human bird flu—WHO

GENEVA, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Scientists suspect some people have a “genetic disposition” for infection with bird flu, which may explain why some get it and others don’t, and why it remains relatively rare, the World Health Organisation said on Thursday.

Evidence, mainly from a family cluster of cases last May in North Sumatra, Indonesia — when seven people in an extended family died — showed genetic factors might influence human susceptibility to the H5N1 virus, it said.

Only blood relatives were infected in the Karo district of North Sumatra, the largest cluster known to date worldwide, “despite multiple opportunities for the virus to spread to spouses or into the general community,” it added.

continued.

Scooba….Thanks for the ‘heads-up’. Keep us abreast of this situation as it develops.

Genetic disposition suspected for human bird flu—WHO

Oh - That makes me feel so much better. NOT.

NEWS - VIET NAM - Le Courrier du Viet Nam, in French - http://tinyurl.com/ygauqt - Sponsors and Representatives of Non Governmental Organizations have met yesterday for an international conference on avian influenza.

60 millions US dollars (60,000,000) have been pledged to revise and improve programmes of action against avian influenza in humans in 2006–2010, as well as for international co-operation. Half of that sum will be dedicated to a “Green Book”. Viet Nam was congratulated on its success in this fight, by the UN agricultural representative, as it has been free of bird flu for the last ten months. On a related subject, it is mentioned that the Viet Nam Red Cross has organized a meeting in Hanoi yesterday to prepare its second phase in the fight against this bane.

If bird flu virus becomes pandemic, high death rates possible: WHO report

“A group of eminent influenza scientists gathered by the WHO last month concluded there is no reason to believe that the virus, which kills roughly 60 per cent of people who become infected, would become any milder if it evolves to become a pandemic strain. …

If a new H5 enters, it could be more lethal than anything we’ve ever seen in history. (But) who knows? …It also reveals that a low level of H5N1 viruses found in wild and domestic birds appear to be naturally resistant to oseltamivir, the main flu drug being stockpiled against a future pandemic

It also questions the wisdom of stockpiling current versions of H5N1 vaccine for later use, saying there is little evidence that a vaccine against one variant of the virus will induce a good immune response against even other currently circulating H5N1 viruses, let alone future ones. “

http://tinyurl.com/y56ujj

(one mis-information in there at 12:54; the old, virulent-can’t- transmit because sick-people-don’t-walk bit, despite influenza being contagious before symptoms strike) (but at least the headline was honestly blunt)

Empirical evidence for the effect of airline travel on inter-regional influenza spread in the United States

http://tinyurl.com/yhubwl

Conclusions

We provided the first empirical evidence for the role of airline travel in long-range dissemination of influenza. Our results suggest an important influence of international air travel on the timing of influenza introduction, as well as an influence of domestic air travel on the rate of inter-regional influenza spread in the US. Pandemic preparedness strategies should account for a possible benefit of airline restrictions on influenza spread.

Of course the WHO Ten things said that high death rates possible back in Oct 2005; 7. Large numbers of deaths will occur

cp health news

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Thursday, Nov 02, 2006 If bird flu virus becomes pandemic, high death rates possible: WHO report

(CP) - There’s no guarantee the H5N1 avian flu virus would become less deadly to people if it triggers a pandemic, a new report from the World Health Organization warns. A group of eminent influenza scientists gathered by the WHO last month concluded there is no reason to believe that the virus, which kills roughly 60 per cent of people who become infected, would become any milder if it evolves to become a pandemic strain.

The report, based on that meeting, cautions governments against spending a lot of money to stockpile existing H5N1 vaccines. It also reveals that a low level of H5N1 viruses found in wild and domestic birds appear to be naturally resistant to oseltamivir, the main flu drug being stockpiled against a future pandemic.

The WHO scientist who convened the meeting cautioned, however, that the question of how lethal an H5N1 pandemic might be is the scientific equivalent of a black hole.

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Modern science has never seen a flu virus as nasty as H5N1, and there is no way of knowing if the virus can become easily transmissible among people or what an H5N1 pandemic would look like.

“It’s one of those things that you hate to conjecture,” said Michael Perdue, an avian influenza expert and scientist with the WHO’s global influenza program.

“We just don’t know enough about this virus, a whole new subtype for humans. . . . If a new H5 enters, it could be more lethal than anything we’ve ever seen in history. (But) who knows?”

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“I think it’s anybody’s opinion because it’s just so completely unknown.”

The report noted some modelling studies suggest a highly lethal virus could not spark a pandemic, because people who fall gravely ill aren’t walking about transmitting flu to others. “All such matters remain difficult to predict,” the report concludes.

It also questions the wisdom of stockpiling current versions of H5N1 vaccine for later use, saying there is little evidence that a vaccine against one variant of the virus will induce a good immune response against even other currently circulating H5N1 viruses, let alone future ones.

“We still don’t have the data that would say that a pre-pandemic vaccine based on one H5N1 strain would completely protect against another,” Perdue said from Geneva.

“Although one would hope it would mitigate the effects some, we don’t have the data to show it.”

The United States and Switzerland are stockpiling current H5N1 vaccines. And several other countries - Singapore and Britain among them - are reported to be in negotiations with vaccine maker GlaxoSmithKline to buy bulk lots of its H5N1 vaccine for stockpiling purposes.

© The Canadian Press, 2006

My My My…blow me over and call me Dusty…the WHO and Dick Thompson have certainly come a long way from their blanket statement of 2–7 million mortality worldwide in Jan 2005.

Explain to the world now why you made the statement then and why you have now ‘changed your tune’.

It is not good enough that you have done this without a full scientific explanation of your conclusions, both then and now.

NEWS - WHO to unveil global anti-counterfeiting plan - http://tinyurl.com/y43b7m

2 NOVEMBER 2006 | GENEVA — On 15 November, the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners will officially launch the first ever International Medical Products Anti-counterfeiting Taskforce (IMPACT) and unveil the global plan to combat counterfeit medical products.

““We just don’t know enough about this virus, a whole new subtype for humans. . . .”

Its been under study since 1997… and they don’t know a whole lot about it?

I’d rather they admit what they don’t know, than pretend they’ve got it all under control.

uk bird. They already tried that. /:0)

Tom - at 13:10…..maybe they have “evolved”.

Commonground - at 13:24…..maybe they got “caught”. /:0)

Tom DVM - “Blow Me Over and call me Dusty” - Ha! I’ve never heard that expression! I like it!!! :-) By the way, I agree with you, we demand an explanation re: the turnaround…..oh wait a minute……they are politicians……forget the explanation.

Tom, maybe WHO is having a case of “recombination” on the DT gene at position 627? That position has been shown to influence pathogenicity in mice but is not consistently correlated with severity of the twisted mouth infection among staff isolated from WHO… Ooops!

LOL Frenchiegirl!

I still don’t understand this rationale of the WHO:

The report noted some modelling studies suggest a highly lethal virus could not spark a pandemic, because people who fall gravely ill aren’t walking about transmitting flu to others.

Doesn’t an infected person shed virus for 2 to 3 days before showing symptoms? Once you are out of circulation, i.e. laying in bed recuperating or dying, the CFR is a mute point.

Where am I wrong here?

Here’s a university news story with a good beginning to catch attention:

By Conrad Wilson

A virus is creeping across the world, infecting millions from Seattle to Johannesburg, from Tokyo to Mexico City. Store shelves are barren, the University is closed, 30 percent of the Minnesota workforce is absent, the economy has tanked and medical supplies are inadequate.<snip>

Comment by Marguerite Pannaioanou, professor of epidemiology <snip> “It’s kind of like there is this presumption it will become a pandemic and so we’ll put these billions of dollars into after-the-fact trying to treat people, instead of appropriately beefing up budgets that are going to agriculture so that it stays in birds in the first place and never gets to a pandemic,” Pappaioanou said.<snip>

comment Was she misquoted? Or can she really mean we should transform agricultural methods across the globe? She goes on to say that Indonesia hasn’t done much to stop transmission in their poutry flocks, and they should follow China’s example and vaccinate their whole poultry population. ermm, I thought that didn’t seem to be working in China. Also no mention of pigs.

Most of this article paints a realistic and comprehensive picture, yet it seems overly optimistic in the length of time they expect to have before pandemic is everywhere, and in when a vaccine will become available. Unfortunately the writer didn’t have a quote from anyone who could/would describe the “empty shelves” impact.

http://www.mndaily.com/articles/2006/11/02/69690

I don’t think you’re wrong anywhere.

JWB – at 13:46

You’re not wrong, the modelling studies spoken of are completely off base, and people will have plenty of time to walk around shedding viral bodies before the first symptoms incapacitate them.

Smile, nod, ignore it as smoke and mirrors double-speak.

JWB – at 13:46

…and, if you need further evidence about the incubation period, WHO’s own web site, at
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/avian_influenza/en/index.html
states, “The incubation period for H5N1 avian influenza may be longer than that for normal seasonal influenza, which is around two to three days. Current data for H5N1 infection indicate an incubation period ranging from two to eight days and possibly as long as 17 days. However, the possibility of multiple exposure to the virus makes it difficult to define the incubation period precisely. WHO currently recommends that an incubation period of seven days be used for field investigations and the monitoring of patient contacts.”

One last comment on China’s bald denial of the predominance of the H5N1 Fujian strain-

Monotreme, you are “on top of it”, “in front of it”, and TOTALLY vindicated.

But nevermind.

But do come back with more, much more.

“…H5N1 infection indicate an incubation period ranging from two to eight days and possibly as long as 17 days.”

…if you can’t explain your data…you just reverse things and make your conclusions fit the data.

This is pure, unadulterated HOGWASH!!!

The Annual Influenza Gamble: Who Should Give It A Shot?’

“There is no overwhelming reason for a healthy person between 3 and 50 years old to get [a flu shot], unless they just don’t want to get sick,” said Dr Peter Anderson, president of the medical staff at New Milford Hospital. On the other hand, the protection rate is extremely high for those adults between 50 and 65 years of age who do get it, he added. That of course is if the flu strain going around is one of the three strains contained in the flu shot….

 CDC report from September of 2006 indicates that the influenza vaccination among the elderly, that group most commonly urged to receive the flu vaccine, is effective in only 30 to 40 percent of the cases in preventing the flu. That rate increases to between 70 and 90 percent for healthy adults under the age of 65, mainly said Dr Anderson, because younger adults have a stronger immune system than do the elderly. “In the elderly, the immune system doesn’t work as well, so the vaccine doesn’t work as well,” he explained. …

A study a few years back showed that patients with a history of heart disease had a notable drop in hospitalization if they had received the flu shot….

Dr Ofgang promotes a preventative approach to the flu season. “Eat right, get fresh air, and wash your hands. The stronger and healthier you are, the less likely you are to get the flu.”….

People should discuss the need for a flu shot with their physician and not just assume they should get it. Certainly, the amount of panic the last few years is way out of proportion to the effectiveness of the flu shot,” said Dr Ofgang.

http://tinyurl.com/wqatf

‘

Dennis in Colorado – at 14:08

Current data for H5N1 infection indicate an incubation period ranging from two to eight days and possibly as long as 17 days.

Wow! All the time I spent on Fluwikie and I’ve missed that!

Thanks! I think

In our considerations of the advance of H5N1, people should keep one thing clear in their minds. There are many powerful motivations for hiding the extent,types, and progress of H5N1(public image for tourism and exports, getting a jump on a enormously profitable vaccine, etc). Not just China, but most agencies are not releasing most sequences and are just talking about them. You should not only assume they are HIDING significant information, but that they are LYING at times when in their descriptions released to suit their govenmental and corporate patrons’ agendas. Count on it.

North Carolina, U.S.

Health Department Expands Drive-Thru Flu Shot Clinic November 4th

October 25, 2006

Wilkes County Health Department will be holding another drive-thru flu clinic this year as part of preparation for a public health disaster. Seasonal flu shots will be offered for $20 during the Drive-Thru Flu Shot Drill on November 4th from 7:30am to 3:00pm while supplies last.

[snip]

“Last year was the first time Wilkes County Health Department hosted a drive-thru flu clinic. We didn’t know what to expect. This year will be a good test of what we learned,” said Beth Lovette, Health Director. “We had a lot of good advice from our public and we’ve included it in our plans for this year.”

[snip]

“Even though we’re using regular flu shots, this is a great way for us to prepare for a public health disaster,” said Ms. Lovette.

http://tinyurl.com/y2o6vg

Dr Peter Anderson, president of the medical staff at New Milford Hospital.

LOL. . .I was born at the New Milford Hospital.

Dr Peter Anderson, president of the medical staff at New Milford Hospital.

LOL. . .I was born at the New Milford Hospital. Delivered by Doc Simons. Think they named a wing after him posthumously.

speaking of… has the USA released the sequences of any of those “low path” H5N1 infections it keeps finding this year? Aren’t they supposed to release them as part of the OIE reporting requirements of Member States?

TreasureIslandGal – at 14:43 “speaking of… has the USA released the sequences of any of those “low path” H5N1 infections it keeps finding this year? Aren’t they supposed to release them as part of the OIE reporting requirements of Member States?”

That was my understanding. I’ve also wondered why the “North American” low path H5N1 hasn’t shown up in Alaska, where most of the samples have been taken. Also, are we certain the Illinois test really wasn’t H5N1, or just that they couldn’t isolate it from the samples. I’ve also wondered if “North American” H5N1 is just behind the Asian H5N1 in evolution and will jump to high path - how long has low path H5N1 been around?

FrenchieGirl.

To quote BroncoBill “Bbbwwwwwwaaaaahahhahahahahahahahaha!!!”

Fiddlerdave – at 14:37

In our considerations of the advance of H5N1, people should keep one thing clear in their minds. There are many powerful motivations for hiding the extent,types, and progress of H5N1(public image for tourism and exports, getting a jump on a enormously profitable vaccine, etc). Not just China, but most agencies are not releasing most sequences and are just talking about them. You should not only assume they are HIDING significant information, but that they are LYING at times when in their descriptions released to suit their govenmental and corporate patrons’ agendas. Count on it.

I’m thinking “So what else is new?” so frequently that maybe I should put that into the FW quote thread.

It’s sad when you are no longer surprised by certain things….

QUESTION Tom DVM at 10:27

Have you in the past, or are you able now, to make dosage recommendations for prednisolone with regards to pandemic flu treatment (esp. dosage for children)? I might be able to purchase some for my medicine stash and I sure would like to know how to use it properly. I know it’s dangerous stuff, so at the end of the day I may not even be qualified to administer it. Thanks.

Sorry, that was me at 15:18.

“You should not only assume they are HIDING significant information, but that they are LYING at times when in their descriptions released to suit their govenmental and corporate patrons’ agendas.”

anon 22. With respect, is this not the definition of a “conspiracy”.

The way I understand it, it all begins low path, but when it gets into poultry, it can quickly become high path. Then it can get back into the wild population as high path and be transported some more. Waterfowl are supposedly only mildly affected by low path, if at all. High path they may get very sick from or even die. Though in PIE, they supposedly died from “low path” -even though they weren’t able to recreate the virus in a lab to sequence it to name it one way or another. You would think if the waterfowl died, that it would have been high path. Low path isn’t supposed to kill waterfowl or make them very sick. -this seems to contrast with some of the birds’ health status they are finding with supposedly “low path” american H5N1. With the Asian H5N1, many waterfowl are showing little if any symptoms any more. So, whether a wild bird gets a little sick, real sick, or dies, doesn’t seem to be a telling factor any more.

If the american H5N1 gets into poultry and becomes high path, they will probably still spin it. “it was our more mild american H5N1, but it has no gone high path in american poultry. this is no tthe same strain as they are fighting in Asia. No need to worry. We have the outbreak well under control and protective quarantine measures are in place around affected farms. All birds are being culled to prevent potentially infected chicken from entering the food supply. All American chicken is perfectly safe to eat. Americans are reminded to continue to thoroughly cook their chicken to at least 160 degrees, as they should always do, and continue to practice good kitchen hygiene practices to prevent the spread of germs.” blah blah blah

Tom DVM – at 15:21 You said “anon 22. With respect, is this not the definition of a “conspiracy”.”

It is only a conspiracy if you are caught.

Tom DVM – at 15:21 You said “anon 22. With respect, is this not the definition of a “conspiracy”.”

It is only a conspiracy if you are caught/exposed.

Hi Lurker Mom.

I know that you will understand that I am hesitant to give you a black or white answer on your question and why…

…There are a number of ways to come to the answer on this. One way is to ask a doctor, it could be your doctor or go to the desk at the Emergency Department of your local hospital and leave a written question at the desk.

The question you want to ask is…for a child who is x years old and x weight, what dosage of prednisolone would you use to treat a delayed allergy or reaction to a bee sting.

My sister in law is 35 yrs old and about 130 lbs. She had just such a reaction last summer and was dispensed 50 mg prednisolone per day, orally, for four days without any request for monitoring of any kind, either by blood test or seeing a doctor.

Sniffles. You are right. Thanks!!

TreasureIslandGal

The fall migration has started and we must assume China Flu is on the wing in North America.

We will not see clinical disease however until it shows up in a commercial poultry farm. This will occur when migratory birds cross contact farm poultry. It may take a while for the situation to present itself as poultry farms in North America are more isolated from waterfowl then in Asia.

Most often when waterfowl die in the wild, it occurs where no one will notice or it is attributed to many other things that can cause these deaths (In British Columbia this fall they concluded it was mould in grain or at other times botulism).

http://tinyurl.com/yxmzlz US to change AI reporting rules
27 Oct 2006

Following the latest negative bird flu test result in Ohio, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Department of the Interior (DOI) are changing the US protocol for reporting avian influenza outbreaks.

The mass media will only be informed of outbreaks of bird flu if initial tests involve a significant number of sick or dead birds, or if there are other circumstances that suggest that the avian influenza subtypes found are highly pathogenic.In other cases where low-pathogenic AI is suspected, cases will be listed on the Internet. To date, the USDA and DOI have publicly announced 12 cases of potential high-pathogenic H5N1 in six states, all of which were found to be low-pathogenic or completely negative for the virus through confirmatory testing. In a joint statement, the agencies said that the new reporting rules were being put in place because “LPAI H5N1 detections are common and pose no threat to human health”. More LPAI cases are expected in the future as expanded surveillance of wild birds begins. DOI will maintain a list of all such routine detections as part of the National Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Early Detection Data System (HEDDS). The low path H5N1 detection list can be accessed here. A link also will be available on the USDA’s avian influenza web page. The USDA National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) earlier confirmed that there was no avian influenza present in samples collected from wild Northern pintail ducks in Ottawa County, Ohio. Initial screening results announced on 14 October indicated that H5 and N1 subtypes might be present in the collected samples, but further testing was necessary to confirm the H and N subtypes as well as pathogenicity.

The world is so in an uproar over China right now for not sharing sequences. The USA may not be able to share its “low path” ones now, especially if sharing would inadvertently expose any little fibs told about what they had found initially. Then again, I suppose they could just “tweek” their sequence findings if they really wanted to to pacify the media and enquiring minds such as our own.

JWB; the 15 days “incubation” times seen in a cluster are most likely what you and I would call human-to-human-to-human transmissions…

“I suppose they could just “tweek” their sequence findings if they really wanted to to pacify the media and enquiring minds such as our own.”

TreasureIslandGal. Even as skeptical as I am (with good reason I think), I wouldn’t have come up with this one. /:0)

Thanks very much Tom DVM at 15:27

That was just the kind of answer I was looking for and I printed it out. I will get on that right away.

By the way, you are on a roll here today. I love it!

They don’t need to conspire. It’s how they normally do things. It’s us that have the weird culture….

Lurker Mom. Thanks I think.

It’s Frenchie Girl’s fault…she keeps feeding the animals!! /:0)

The question was raised earlier about why the US cases do not appear on the OIE list - that is because the USA is exempt from reporting to the OIE. So, now that they have decided to change the protocol on what will be made public … good luck folks

Thanks AnnieB - I didn’t know that. Gee, the US has all their bases covered. :-(

anon 22 at 15:48

That is so much the case. TPTB live and see the world that way, and sadly, I believe it hyperendemic in their world.

That explains why they are threatened by truthful people seeking and speaking the truth, because it is outside their experience, and unknown, and therefore feared.

But that is another thread.

How is it that the U.S. is “exempt?” I suggested that the other day, but was didn’t think they were really exempt. Is it that they are not a “member?” If we’re talking about transparency, the U.S. should cooperate in the reporting.

‘’‘ Bird Flu Adapted to Human Outbreak May Maintain Killing Power

By John Lauerman

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) — The bird flu virus that is killing about 60 percent of the people it infects might mutate to spread more widely in humans without losing its lethal power, contrary to what some scientists had thought.

Researchers had theorized that the genetic adaptation necessary for a wider human outbreak might weaken the virus, making it less lethal. Scientists at a September World Health Organization conference in Geneva concluded that there’s no reason to think the virus must lose its virulence to spread more easily, according to a report of the meeting released today.

The H5N1 avian influenza is known to have infected 256 people in 10 countries and killed 152 of them, according to WHO figures as of Oct. 31. The death rate far exceeds that of the most deadly pandemic on record, the 1918 Spanish flu that is believed to have killed about 50 million people worldwide, or about 2.5 percent of those infected.

“Should the virus improve its transmissibility through adaptation as a wholly avian virus, then the present high lethality could be maintained during a pandemic,” the report said, citing a presentation to the meeting by researchers from the University of Hong Kong.

Rather than jumping directly to people as a bird virus, H5N1 might become contagious in people by combining its genes with those of a human influenza like those that spread through the population seasonally. That would probably result in a far less lethal version of the virus, the researchers said.

“It’s hard to predict,” said William Schaffner, an infectious-disease expert at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee, who consults to the U.S. government on flu. “The proof will be in the pandemic; we fear the worst case and hope it never gets started.”

More on this story at http://tinyurl.com/sjzzt

This is not H5N1. But I didn’t know where else to put it?

ProMed
At least 1 young patient and 15 staff members at Children’s Hospital Boston have been diagnosed with whooping cough [pertussis? - Mod.LL], the hospital and public health authorities reported yesterday, 1 Nov 2006, marking the 2nd time in 2 months that a Massachusetts hospital has faced an outbreak of the infectious disease.

Sixty other staff members at Children’s have symptoms of the bacterial illness and are undergoing blood tests to determine whether they have the condition, said Dr. Anita Barry, from the Boston Public Health Commission. Those workers were sent home until they can finish a 5-day course of the antibiotic azithromycin, said Dr. Thomas Sandora, an epidemiologist at Children’s.

Letters have been sent to the parents of about 1000 patients who may have come into contact with potentially infectious staff members, providing information about the disease and directions on what to do if symptoms appear, Sandora said.

“Many of those patients probably weren’t exposed, but we’re taking a very cautious approach,” Sandora said.

It appeared last night that Children’s did not follow the law in alerting local health authorities about the outbreak, which began in September 2006, in a timely fashion. State law requires that suspected cases of many infectious diseases, including whooping cough, be reported to the local board of health within 24 hours of being identified, a measure designed to contain dangerous outbreaks.

Hospital and city investigators said they believe the outbreak began after a 19-month-old boy was admitted to the hospital 21 Sep 2006 with a fever, cough, and wheezing. Initially, the child was diagnosed with a disease called respiratory syncytial virus, but because of worsening symptoms, he was sent to intensive care and subsequently diagnosed with whooping cough, also known as pertussis. From that case, the outbreak radiated outward, infecting nurses, clinical assistants, and administrative staff members, Sandora said. The toddler has recovered and none of the hospital workers became seriously ill, he added.

At St. Vincent Hospital in Worcester (MA), an outbreak in September 2006 infected 30 staff members. Officials said they believe a gastrointestinal surgeon who is a military reservist contracted the disease while on duty and unknowingly carried it into the hospital. [rest of the article is here: http://tinyurl.com/yk3bdx

If bird flu virus becomes pandemic, high death rates possible: WHO report

12:30:01 EST Nov 2, 2006

(CP) - ‘There’s no guarantee the H5N1 avian flu virus would become less deadly to people if it triggers a pandemic, a new report from the World Health Organization warns.

A group of eminent influenza scientists gathered by the WHO last month concluded there is no reason to believe that the virus, which kills roughly 60 per cent of people who become infected, would become any milder if it evolves to become a pandemic strain.

‘’‘The report, based on that meeting, cautions governments against spending a lot of money to stockpile existing H5N1 vaccines. It also reveals that a low level of H5N1 viruses found in wild and domestic birds appear to be naturally resistant to oseltamivir, the main flu drug being stockpiled against a future pandemic.

The WHO scientist who convened the meeting cautioned, however, that the question of how lethal an H5N1 pandemic might be is the scientific equivalent of a black hole.” ‘’‘

http://tinyurl.com/vjvcj

crfullmoon – at 15:39

Thanks.

And the earlier article by Canadian Press on the same topic with additional info on pre pandemic vaccines, (I wonder if it is Helen Branswell again?)

http://tinyurl.com/y56ujj

My first thought on reading this, which I believe is the first MSM report on real possibility of a severe pandemic re CFR was,

“Thank you Monotreme and Anon_22 and others who have been so far ahead of the curve in discussions on this and other topics, WAY before the establishment, scientific and otherwise.”

So may I say thank you to those here on Fluwiki who have had the intellectual capacity and committment to raise these crucial issues so that those that choose to heed the warnings have both the scenario expectations upon which to prepare, and the maximum lead time in which to prepare.

(Thought I read: Gee, the US has all their biases covered. :-( )

Misinformation at 16:04, tsk tsk John Lauerman; …”might mutate to spread more widely in humans without losing its lethal power, contrary to what some scientists had thought.”…

Not the ones Dr.Nabarro had spoken with prior to Dec.2005 : …”The biology colleagues that I speak with tell me that if the pathogenic characteristics of H5N1 were to be taken forward as it mutates into having a human-to-human transmission capacity, then we would have a virus with high pathogenicity …” the pandemic will kill when it comes.

But more seriously perhaps, it will do massive economic and social damage, because ‘’‘our systems of trade, finance and governance are interconnected and will not survive the impact of a pandemic on workforces. We need to be able to deal with both the human consequences and the economic, social and governance consequences if we’re going to survive it.

And believe me, the pandemic could start tomorrow. By the time the pandemic starts, preparation will be too late. So, you should be doing this now, and that’s my message’‘’.”

He said that back in Dec.2005 but my state and local authorities refuse to get the public aware and preparing.

Champion’ vectors

Reuters - Nov 2/06

“Mallard ducks have been identified as the “champion” spreaders of bird flu, and appear to shed the virus increasingly from the respiratory tract rather than via feces, the WHO said.

This finding will require modifying disease surveillance strategies so that samples are also taken from birds’ pharynx, as well as feces, it said.

“In terms of geographical spread of the virus, mallard ducks are now regarded as the ‘champion’ vectors; mute swans are highly susceptible birds that are thought to serve as sentinels, but probably not as vectors of virus transmission,” it said in the report, ..” - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/sapvz

Klatu – at 16:17 If bird flu virus becomes pandemic, high death rates possible: WHO report

OMG! I’m shocked! You mean they’ve seen the light?

I’ll have to read the whole thing word for word to see for myself…

OIE website US does report animal diseases - looks as though only high path requires reporting.

I guess enough scientists have been asked that question, and, more importantly, for evidence, that finally it is undeniable.

Here’s the actual quote:

“One especially important question that was discussed is whether the H5N1 virus is likely to retain its present high lethality should it acquire an ability to spread easily from person to person, and thus start a pandemic. Should the virus improve its transmissibility by acquiring, through a reassortment event, internal human genes, then the lethality of the virus would most likely be reduced. However, should the virus improve its transmissibility through adaptation as a wholly avian virus, then the present high lethality could be maintained during a pandemic.”

Which is what we’ve been saying for a long time.

Dr.Nabarro, too, said the present high lethality could be maintained, back in Dec 2005, (link at 16:28), but I guess he couldn’t say it at every press opportunity and still keep his position or get let into nations with H5N1 problems.

Can we get this to the public’s and local official’s attention now/yet? ‘It does too say in your job description you’ll be personally impacted by natural disasters or plagues; didn’t you get the memo with your birth certificate?

anon_22 - at 16:41 - which is exactly what you told me earlier today. Strange news day. Thanks again for your explanation.

1830,1890 and 1918 proved that 1918 was the norm rather than the exception. If there was an exception, it was 1968.

How could they miss the point. Have they not opened a book in the last nine years…its there for all to see…every other independent scientist and several authors have found the information.

How could they model a pandemic in 2006 on 1968 rather than 1918 when H5N1 was described as the ‘kissing cousin’ of 1918.

This is not a joking matter. There may be billions of lives in the balance here.

We deserve an answer to these questions. Dick Thompson is in charge of media and public relations. We are the public. We directly pay his wages. I’m sure he isn’t tied up twenty-four hours a day…

…Dick, you personally and by your statements and by you portfolio have an obligation to come on flu wiki and defend the actions that you have been more than happy to explain to others who have no opportunity to rebute the statements.

I’m waiting Dick…we at flu wiki are waiting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Betty @12:25

Our school system was shut down for a week year before last because of flu. When the absentee rate hits a certain percentage, the schools begin to lose federal funding and so they will close. I’m in Kentucky, but I know this happens in surrounding states.

It does seem early in the year though. Our school was closed in Dec-others in Jan/Feb/march. Of course they have closed school during March Madness too…….

tjclaw1 – at 16:00 How is it that the U.S. is “exempt?” I suggested that the other day, but was didn’t think they were really exempt.” The USA is defacto “exempt” from every international rule or treaty you can think of when it suits TPTB (which is often), as is pretty much true for any nuclear nation. Whether you think this is a good thing or a bad thing will depend on your politics and morals (or lack thereof).

Klatu – at 16:29 “….mute swans are highly susceptible birds that are thought to serve as sentinels, but probably not as vectors of virus transmission,”

Remember the “swan feather-picking” family in Azerbaijan? I think they have selective memory. After all that was the start of an important cluster.

http://tinyurl.com/yybq36

DennisC - at 17:19 - you have to really read the words.

“mute swans are highly susceptible birds that are thought to serve as sentinels, but probably not as vectors of virus transmission,”

Homesteader – at 14:41 Dr Peter Anderson, president of the medical staff at New Milford Hospital….LOL. . .I was born at the New Milford Hospital. Delivered by Doc Simons..

It’s a small world, Homesteader. That’s the hospital ER I visited last year when I got a wallop of a head bang from falling on the ice. I had to wait 3 1/2 hours to be seen. Only 2 people in front of me. Hospital is enduring even more staffing cutbacks now. Doc I saw there had already stockpiled Tami for his entire extended family, and said the hospital could not handle a pandemic.

Commonground – at 17:29

I do read words. How can they say “probably not as vectors of virus transmission” when there is a proven case where swan feathers have lead to H5N1 and death? To me if families die from handling swan feathers then it is indeed a vector. It may not be a common vector, but most defenitely a vector. No “probably” about it.

anon_22 – at 16:41

RE:“One especially important question that was discussed is whether the H5N1 virus is likely to retain its present high lethality should it acquire an ability to spread easily from person to person, and thus start a pandemic. Should the virus improve its transmissibility by acquiring, through a reassortment event, internal human genes, then the lethality of the virus would most likely be reduced. However, should the virus improve its transmissibility through adaptation as a wholly avian virus, then the present high lethality could be maintained during a pandemic.”

I really do hate to be crass, but this will need to be reduced to the comprehension level of a 5th grader to get even partially understood by most towns governing bodies.

Not that they’re stupid per se, but few have a scientific background.

The only thing worse than someone not comprehending this is someone who pretends they that they do because they’re afraid of looking stupid. And then they may fail to act/react because others will see waht they failedto comprehend.

Not kidding here. Gotta make it 2 syllables or less.

DennisC - at 18:22 - I think that they think they are safe with the words “thought” and “probable”. When someone comes out with the proof from Azerbaijan, then they can say….”well….we said “probably”. I’m having a hard time explaining this. They are just parsing words.

Commonground – at 18:56 To me they just ignore evidence that they should know and hope that no one will notice. It doesn’t do much to enhance my trust in WHO.

Grace RN – at 18:45 What part of “We’re screwed” don’t they understand?

(Maybe this is where the part of the Declaration of Independance where we have to stop following authorities to our own detriment and make changes comes in, at least on a local level…)

How many federal and state planning documents did admit giving the public information pre-pandemic was vital, as was transparency and honesty - I did see references, somewhere…

Good news, kind of…

It is Type B and not Type A flu in NC where they had to close the schools down.

The victims tested positive for influenza B, the less serious of two types of the virus that commonly infect humans, the department said in a news release….

An outbreak of flu-like illness kept 250 of Yancey County’s 2,575 pupils out of class on Wednesday… We just need everyone to act responsibly,” Kinnane said. “Sporting events, recreational events — any high-gathering event — have been canceled or we’re recommending that they be canceled.” …

The findings at the North Carolina State Laboratory of Public Health must still be confirmed by further tests that could take up to a week, the state Department of Health and Human Services said…. ..

http://tinyurl.com/y4ddb6

“250 of Yancey County’s 2,575 pupils”

Wow. 10%? It would be good to know how quickly this spread through the schools.

BTW in case people missed it, I wrote up a summary of the WHO report. It’s here

observer – at 16:33 wrote:

OIE website US does report animal diseases - looks as though only high path requires reporting.

Actually high pathopgen-samples can bypass reporting requirements under certain circumstances. This is what may have happened when H5 was discovered in Canada’s, Prince Edward Island earlier this year, and why it flew under the radar.

Tue Jun 20 2006 From: Klatu To: “Dr. N “

Subject: “ CFIA lab in Winnipeg : further testing did not support last week’s initial findings”

Comment: If your are deciding between neglect or intent, I would side with intent. - excerpt

Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 From: “Dr. N” To: Klatu

Tue, 20 Jun 2006

“I think the data is leaning toward intent.    ‘’‘Someone decided to test only one of the four dead geese and someone decided to beat up the samples on PEI for almost 2 weeks before sending it to Winnipeg.   The only way to avoid an OIE report would be to “lose” the H5N1.’‘’  An OIE report would be expected to have sequence data, and the sequence data would almost certainly show Qinghai H5N1.”   Henry

Drug Interaction Can Render Tamiflu Ineffective

November 1, 2006 consumeraffairs.com

“Health officials are counting on the anti-viral drug Tamiflu to be a critical weapon in the event of an influenza pandemic, but it may provide only limited protection for some patients.

A new study at the University of Rhode Island’s College of Pharmacy indicates that the drug can be rendered ineffective in patients also taking the anti-clotting drug Plavix.

“Concurrent use of both drugs would inhibit the activation of the drug, thus making this anti-viral agent therapeutically inactive.” said URI Pharmacy Professor Bingfang Yan, head of a URI research team that focuses on why people respond to medications differently.

Yan has notified the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the National Institutes of Health about the effect of Plavix on Tamiflu. The Journal of Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics will publish the results of his team’s research in its December issue.

“This is epidemiologicially significant because people who receive Tamiflu and Plavix simultaneously may maintain susceptibility to influenza or a source that spreads influenza if they are already affected,” Yan said. Yan said that because patients who have suffered from stroke, heart attack or peripheral artery disease would be among the high-risk individuals for contracting influenza of any strain, they could be among those getting Tamiflu and Plavix at the same time.

The Tamiflu website says it is the number one flu medication in the country, with industry data showing that more than 2 million prescriptions being written in 2005. Since the government has made Tamiflu one of its main weapons in the fight against a flu pandemic, that number would increase considerably during an outbreak. Industry data also show that more than 20 million Plavix prescriptions were written in 2005.

-excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/y5yv73

http://tinyurl.com/se5s5

 Sorry if this is a repost. Thought it was interesting reading.

Ministries refute bird flu virus rumour in China

Citing a statement from the Ministry of Agriculture Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao yesterday refuted reports that a new strain of bird flu has emerged in southern China.

An article in Tuesday’s issue of the US-based Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (www.pnas.org) said a new strain of the H5N1 bird flu virus, called the “Fujian-like virus,” because it was first found in Fujian Province, has emerged in southern China and become prevalent in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand.

News of the new virus was widely reported in foreign media.

Quoting the statement, Liu said: “China has noticed recent publications by some foreign academic publications about the bird flu situation in southern China, but their claims are totally different from the real situation.

“Since 2004, China has been keeping a close eye on the bird flu situation in its southern regions.

“Gene sequence analysis shows that all the variants of the virus found in southern China share high uniformity, meaning they all belong to the same gene type.

“No distinctive change was found in their biological characteristics.”

In response to accusations from WHO experts that China is reluctant to share information and samples of bird flu, the statement said: “China has always actively participated in the prevention and control of bird flu and has maintained good co-operative relations with international organizations, and shares with the international community all the latest developments in the bird flu situation and virus information in the country in a timely manner.”

Source: China Daily

If this has been answered before, I apologize. Does the virus’ increasing propensity for respiratory transmission vs. fecal in Mallards mean further mutation toward tolerance of lower temperatures and is this bringing it closer to H2H respiratory transmission?

Pigeons go nowhere as bird-flu law halts races

By Simon de Bruxelles (link http://tinyurl.com/ydn9gz)

Pigeon racing is facing a financial crisis because the Government banned international events to reduce the risk of bird flu spreading to Britain. The result has been a disaster for the 110-year-old Royal Pigeon Racing Association, which has the Queen as its patron. The association depends on on subscriptions from member clubs, but its annual income has fallen by £50,000.

Peter Bryant, the general manager, said: “I just hope this isn’t the death knell for the sport in some areas. We understand that there need to be restrictions in places where there are outbreaks of the disease but our argument is that if there is no disease in a country, as in France, then it is a complete over-reaction to stop us flying from there. Racing pigeons pose a very low risk of catching or passing on bird flu.”

Restrictions imposed in April meant that races could start no more than 400 miles from the south coast of Britain. The ban was extended to all international racing in August. This left organisations such as the British Barcelona Club, which races from Spain, without their premier race. The British International Continental Club, which competes against other European clubs, lost its international programme.

<snip>

The association insists that it has scientific evidence to show that racing pigeons have a high resistance to high pathological avian influenza, HPAI, including the deadly H5N1 strain. Even pigeons artificially infected with HPAI did not pass on the disease to healthy pigeons.

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said: “We will review this position for next year’s season in view of any increased knowledge. There aren’t any examples of pigeons passing on bird flu in Europe but this is a relatively new situation we find ourselves in, so we have to base policy on the veterinary risk assessment.”

I am just creating the News Summary then I will start a new thread so you might like to hold your posting for about 20 minutes.