Continued from here
Grace RN – at 10:55
“The odds are that a much higher CFR is in the offing with this pandemic flu. We need to be able to explain that to our local governments, and they need to be proactivly planning to prepare themselves and their communities for any of several higher CFR scenarios. Any evidence we can gather to support this effort is very helpful, and can move town leaders from inaction to action all on its own.”
Can’t make that as a blanket statement; didn’t work in my town. DENIAL/FEAR are teamed with who’se got the $$$$ and lack of a definite ‘arrival date’.
Green Mom:
IF ALL ELSE FAILS, tell the clinic you’re a volunteer a couple of nights a week at a homeless shelter and you have to take the kids with you. I say this because last year when my employer detailed the staff to Katrina shelters my doc’s nurse didn’t want to give me the pneumovax (I’m 57yo) until I mentioned shelter duty. Then - no problem, step right this way. And if it works, might be nice to drop off some non-perishables at your local food bank.
NauticalMan – at 09:56
I am innocent, I tell ya :o)
Many pandemic-aware people everywhere have been frustrated in their attempt to get their local public officials to come to a realistic appraisal of the risk their communities face from pandemic influenza. I have come to the conclusion that it is futile to persist in this effort. It they ask for your help that is another matter. By all means, do what you can to help but don’t hold your breath waiting for that call.
Public officials at all levels of government are not able to respond to a one-off event of the magnitude of a severe influenza pandemic. It is extremely costly to do it right on a community-wide level and is simply beyond their means. Even the cost of storage, maintenance, renewal and rotation of an adequate level of stocks is beyond their budgets.
The US Department of Health and Human Services Pandemic Influenza Plan published in November 2005 makes the prediction that the case fatality rate for the next severe pandemic will not exceed 2%. I looked very carefully at that number and the underlying assumptions and came to the conclusion that the only way they could have come up with this figure was by using the Top Down method. By this I mean they started with an estimate of the highest CFR the system could manage without an infrastructure collapse, stock market crash, and civil unrest and set that as the value to be used for the CFR. Then the gnomes within the US DHHS built the model around this value.
I am not saying that 2,000,000 American deaths are small potatoes. This many excess deaths will have a dramatic impact on us for years to come. The only comfort in this value is that it can be planned for and survived without the catastrophic consequence that derive from an estimate 5x greater which is what I expect.
The WHO is playing this issue in the same way for somewhat different reasons. The public estimate of worldwide deaths from an H5N1 pandemic is between 2 and 7 million. Internally, they predict upwards of 150 million. They also elected not to increase their Pandemic Alert Phase level to 4 even after H5N1 was passed H2H2H recently in Indonesia fulfilling their pre-established criteria. As I understand it, their reasoning is that most countries they serve simply don’t have the resources to cope with pandemic influenza of any severity. Given this fact, they decided that it was better to play down the risk so as not to cause civil unrest over the issue in the developing world. In their view, the developed nations can take care of themselves and are on their own. At this time the WHO has placed virtually all their resources into the effort to stamp out the pandemic strain when it first emerges by blanketing the outbreak area with Tamiflu. I am doubtful this strategy will succeed in the end but have not counted it out totally.
You see, the reality is governments and NGOs are powerless to affect the outcome of a really severe 1918 style pandemic. On the national level politically and in public health this is well known. In fact, they clearly say it from time to time. My guess is that these leaders want to be sure that they leave a clear public record that they warned us before the pandemic started that it could be really bad. I am sure they fear public reprisals after the pandemic is over as much as they want to avoid public panic ante-pandemic. It is not in the interest of any government to admit they are powerless to affect the outcome of any event, especially one with the potential to really make a mess of things for so long.
So, they all hope for a mild or at most moderate pandemic that will take its toll but remain manageable all the same. This is a risky bet but is what they have decided to do and what we are forced to live with. For this reason, we cannot rely on them for any help. It is why it is so important for the pandemic-aware to prepare to be self-sufficient if we want a good chance of surviving well through the coming long emergency.
Grattan Woodson, MD
Well written, Dr. Woodson. There are a few government exceptions. Dr. M. Blake Caldwell, MD, MPH of the CDC gave a presentation to the Skidaway Community Institute in GA entitled “Planning for a Severe Influenza Pandemic: Implications for the Community.” It was very realistic.
And because the gov’t, WHO and others are downplaying the risk, the media isn’t covering PF very much. When it does, it spews back the same low figures that the CDC and others spoon feed them. Where are the good investigative journalists when you really need them? And I’m talking ones who have wide coverage, not just an article in some obscure science journal. If more people truly understood the risks, more would happen - more prepping, more pressure on gov’ts to plan more effectively, etc. And I swear if one more person says “they’ll have a vaccine for that” I’m going to slap them silly!
“…Public officials at all levels of government are not able to respond to a one-off event of the magnitude of a severe influenza pandemic. It is extremely costly to do it right on a community-wide level and is simply beyond their means”…
That is why it was and is totally unethical to not tell the public what the threat really is so they will prepare to cope unaided.
Grassroots preparation, and bringing all the sectors to the table in public brainstorming meetings about the various contingencies to plan for -starting with everyone stocking up their households, or getting essential spare parts for their essential services (that are currently JIT imports), so that everyone knows, and most would try to be ready if they understood.
‘’‘My local authorities chose, (or they themselves “panicked”) at least 12 months ago; Can’t Tell The Public key bits of information, and have been misleading them into -temporarily- blissful ignorance. If they don’t ask, don’t tell.
If they ask, tell the public or media, “emergency planners’ve been meeting, making all-hazards plans, and, we’ll be having vaccine drills, and you can volunteer to help distribute vaccine” (Now they’ve been wanting them to sign up to be Medical Reserve Corps Volunteers, without knowing what they are geting into, and without telling them to stock up for a months or more at home, even though our state Commissioner used the 30-day figure months ago.)’‘’ (Cote could have told the state publically months ago too; he can afford a PSA.) Have we heard anything from our outgoing Mormon govenor - he doesn’t seem to care if we public are prepared at home. He speaks to the press; he could have urged grassroots pandemic preparedness, instead of an unworkable top-down attempt.
Public money pays their paychecks, and these “Health” Department people decide the public is too foolish to tell, because it “would be a bad outcome”.
The state should have said from the start, state funding relies on each municipality forming a (say it!) “Pandemic” Preparedness group, that has public meetings, and wants help from the public. At this point, every place could about use its own postal-code Flu Wiki; we’re supposed to be making contingency planning and figuring out how we’re to care for our people “homebound by illness or quarantine” without federal, stae or mutual assistance. Current TV PSA’s about “flu” and washing your hands are a year late, and wouldn’t have been enough information a year ago!
Supposedly, Massachusetts wants to be able to look back and say, we did everything we could - looks like there’s one exception already; they couldn’t be honest and transparent with the public and be communicators and educate them as to the situation so they had time to prepare, instead of only react, which will have a very “bad outcome”, if pandemic influenza mutates next week, next month, or the rest of this year, or next year- at the current rate of spoonfeeding the public info but trying to keep them too calm to take any actions the authorities have not told them to take. (Which currently is; stay home from work if you’re sick, wash your hands, and keep 3 days or 2 weeks of food at home…oh, and volunteer to help “in an emergency”!)
2b-Thanks! Actually, my son DOES help out at the Salvation Army kitchen/shelter as part of a KJHS service project and both kids visit the county Nursing home. I never would have thought to connect those.
What would happen if communities just started these on their own, places the authorities chose not to?
…”important, specific activities you can do now to prepare.”… http://pandemicflu.gov/plan/states/statelocalchecklist.html
First Task Listed Establish a Pandemic Preparedness Coordinating Committee that represents all relevant stakeholders in the jurisdiction (including governmental, public health, healthcare, emergency response, agriculture, education, business, communication, community based, and faith-based sectors, as well as private citizens) and that is accountable for articulating strategic priorities and overseeing the development and execution of the jurisdiction’s operational pandemic plan.”
“…it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security……”
If local authorities are derelict in their duty then we, as citizens have the right to take such actions as we deem appropriate to protect ourselves, whether from influenza or anything else.
…”Such has been the patient sufferance … and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former systems…”?
Helen Branswell (CP) …A group of eminent influenza scientists gathered by the WHO last month concluded there is no reason to believe that the virus, which kills roughly 60 per cent of people who become infected, would become any milder if it evolves to become a pandemic strain.…
crfullmoon at 0924
re: “First Task Listed Establish a Pandemic Preparedness Coordinating Committee that represents all relevant stakeholders in the jurisdiction (including governmental, public health, healthcare, emergency response, agriculture, education, business, communication, community based, and faith-based sectors, as well as private citizens) and that is accountable for articulating strategic priorities and overseeing the development and execution of the jurisdiction’s operational pandemic plan.”
Good plan, good intent. BUT:
Do you honestly think that forming a non-governmental grassroots-level group could do that? Who would go if it’s not sponsored/subsidized by TPTB in their town? What- no overtime for this meeting? Entities like police/fire/rescue will not commit to a grassroots level committee. They have to take their direction from the top which is your local governmental body.
Put a plan together without the backing/$$$ of your local governement and all you’ll have are well done suggestions with abolutely no enforcement powers.
Sorry for the cynacism. I went to our county’s business pandemic planning seminar today. It was quite well done, but I was concerned because there were no members of any township goverment/governing body attended that I could see. Guess they don’t count themselves as a business. One person from my township who I hoped could take back a strong message was there and her take-she’s ready, so…as for our township-it’ll be OK.
How will be OK? We have no serious planning done. No one thinks it needs to be done. Everyone in my area thinks the ‘county’ will take care of us.
Up until 3AM this morning, could not put down Doc Woodson’s latest book. Have been reading, posting, prepping for over a year now, familiar with most of the details, food, water, meds, power. Follow the science related threads closely, thought I knew and understood what a Pandemic will mean. Reading the new book, where The Doctor has put it all together in one place and expanded greatly on his previous efforts, now I am really scared. PPF has risen a couple of points. This should be mandatory reading for all of us. BUY THIS BOOK! Thank you again Dr. Woodson. Can not imagine how much of your time and energy has gone into this. Hope your new efforts to persuade some of your colleagues to prescribe meds before IT happens bears fruit, have given up myself on that. Big push lately to finish my preparations. Those of you who are procrastinators take note.
“Who would go if it’s not sponsored/subsidized by TPTB in their town? What- no overtime for this meeting? Entities like police/fire/rescue will not commit to a grassroots level committee”
First responders, if they know somewhat what is going on, have concerns for their and their families’ safety. Some admit they can see the “plans” will be burnt-Katrina-world-toast in a fortnight, (“or less”), though they may never say so at work.
Some may not show up, or, may hold down the fort where they live, which may not be the municipality they worked in.
They might be interested in off-the-record, neighborhood, or municipality brainstorming. (We aren’t saying it’ll just be so bad that there’s nothing anyone can do)
Or the townsfolk with children might be interested to hear some rational actions to start now.
Even if it’s on an issue-by-issue conversation basis like the Wiki sometimes focusses on. Word-of-mouth; through friends in organizations. What about before or after meetings?
This is life-or-death; people will do things about survival for free; here we are at the Wiki.
Even if it was just getting people to look at what the Flu Wiki has already done wondering about food, water, electricity, insulin, first aid kits, invasion by gangs, what will happen to unattended minors, how will the dead be id’ and buried?, local currency ideas,
even if it was just getting the information to the public that the state and locals were supposed to have formed a diverse committee to address pandemic year problems together and have not done so
it might motivate some individuals to look for their own sources of warning, and, act to prep their own households
-more than are at the dropping-baby-shoes pace state bureaucracies have chosen, (not wanting to be the bearers of unprecedented-in-our-lifetimes-bad news perhaps) -leaving all their other official planning futile, since a blindsidded public will have many medical, nutritional, mental, financial, lack of confidence in authority, and, recovery problems as is now.
We need “a Pandemic Preparedness Coordinating Committee that represents all relevant stakeholders in the jurisdiction (including governmental, public health, healthcare, emergency response, agriculture, education, business, communication, community based, and faith-based sectors, as well as private citizens) and that is accountable for articulating strategic priorities and overseeing the development and execution of the jurisdiction’s operational pandemic plan.” and the current and future generations deserve one.
Every municipality, or failing that, an organization, or neighborhood, or apartment block, needs a “Flu Wiki” of information to become more resiliant, even if we have to do it unofficially, acting as private citizens only.
…it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security…
So far it’s been my experience that people say if there was something to worry about the government-local-would be doing something about it. And blow off any other action plan. When asked, the mayor says something is being done. All doublespeak. Their idea of planning is not what I, the CDC/DHHS thinks is effective [as per their sites]. I’ve been at this for a year now.
So.. I will soon start hosting small goups of my neighbors in my home Sundays nights-coffee, cake and a pandemic educational presentation with encouragement to attending the local BOH meetings (they have to be open to the public). Now if the virus can just wait a few years so we can get our act together…
AND I’m starting a paper trail…cya…
crfullmoon
FYI-you’re preaching to the choir… :)
NM, greetings there, hope all is\well, I’ve been non-stop at work and haven’t checked in lately. Which one of The Doctor’s books is the latest one and which one would you recommend I order?
LMWatBullRun – at 20:34:
“…it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security……”
Excellent, LMWatBullRun. I’m goona use that, oh yes I am. PowerPoint slide coming up.
Crfullmoon:
The way I see it, the local officials can either run serious community pandemic preparation meetings, or they can be invited to attend the community pandemic preparation meetings.
Right now it’s their choice. Which looks better in the newspapers?
GraceRN is right - it’s a whole lot easier (and more efficient) if the local leaders decide on openness, communication, community involvement, and preparation. If the community must start down it’s own pandemic preparation path without them, however, TPTB will be summoned to those meetings too, in front of the press. At that point they’ll be held just as accountable, and just as publicly, but they will have lost the control that they could have exercised if they had proceeded under their own momentum.
It’s a win/win for local authorities to get on board and begin engagement in the pandemic planning process now, with their communities. There’s a lot of downside involved in TPTB waiting till later, the most prominent issues being the risk of loss of credibility and trust, which they may need very badly later.
Al @ 19:31
Greetings to you too Al. Hope all is well Downeast.
His latest book is the “Bird Flu Manual”, about $15 from Amazon.com.. Well worth the money just for the addditional info regarding medications and home care. Quite a bit of new info in that regard, now have to find some additional meds, as usual without the help of our doctor. Reading this I understand why The Doctor has recommended forming Pandemic Survival Groups, but still can not get anyone in my neighborhood to even listen to me, very discouraging. That worries me due to the fact that those without will be looking for those with. Guess I will have to go it alone and provide a little to others who I know will never prepare until too late and protect our preps and ourselves with whatever means needed, sad to say.
Please keep talking to your neighbors. Here’s a copy of my YOYO letter. I walked it over to our Fire department and said “Ill copy and deliver it if you’ll agree to sponsor it” — no skin off their noses, so they said yes. I walked it over to our local grocery store (local owner) and he surprised me by knowing alot about pan flu and he said I could put out the flyers and he’d throw in a $100 gift certificate for free gas as a drawing prize. Wow. People are picking up the flyer and laughing when they read it — and then walking off with it, so I take that as a good sign.
Can you handle a YOYO?
Nah, not the doohickey on a string. YOYO stands for “You’re On Your Own.” Public health authorities are concerned that this might be a bad flu season. Whether it’s pandemic flu, earthquake or a bad winter storm, there are times when services and supplies are disrupted. Let’s see how ready you are to handle a YOYO event. Test yourself:
___ I have at least two weeks supplies of food and water. (TWO WEEKS?? Yeah. Sobering, isn’t it? Think about it though. Katrina victims had a horrible storm and then there were major obstacles to getting supplies delivered. If we did have a flu pandemic, wouldn’t you rather be home with your soup cans than in line behind someone sneezing?)
___ I have the medicines I’ll need (prescriptions, ibuprofen, first aid kit).
___ I have a way to keep warm if the power is out. (Wood stove and firewood or at least a sleeping bag and warm cap).
___I have a flashlight, extra batteries and a camp stove and fuel. I also have matches and a manual can opener.
___ I have specific supplies for my household, such as pet food and a pet carrier for Barkey the dog and Hairball the cat.
FOR ADULTS ONLY
(If you’re under 21, close your eyes when you read this):
___ I won’t be on the roads to fetch booze, tobacco, chocolate or birth control because I’ve got that figured out. I’ll plan so I don’t add a “cold turkey” experience to an emergency.
Brought to you by the good people at the Griffin Fire Department and Island Market who want you to stay safe and sassy.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Detach here and place in the collection box at Island Market.
OK, I get the picture. I will do what it takes to get my family ready to handle a YOYO event. Please put my name in for the Island Market prize! Name_____________________________ Phone #_______________
Great job at risk communication, Olymom! Please let us know how it goes - how many entries you get for your drawing (what a clever way to measure!), and any other responses.
Grace RN – at 19:10 I was preaching to the lurkers, if anyone takes Flu Wiki threads and mails or emails them to state or local officials (or journalists, if we have any). Your paper trail, my Flu Wiki trail, yup…
people say if there was something to worry about the government-local-would be doing something about it Guess it is lucky I can say, well, I tried to get the person in charge to start telling you a year ago, and various officials since (who go to the few “emergency/all-hazard” meetings, where they “have plans” even for the schools) and they’ve said, and say, to my face, We can’t tell the public that because they’ll “panic” -can’t have that
and for some, that does sound like something they can imagine a politician or bureaucrat or Jobsworth doing, even a health official, even if people and their children will suffer and die unprepared because they were unwarned.
We had no idea the levees would fail -sure- when scientists had written it all up 3 years before Katrina…Sure and the public will be able to find out the WHO’s Ten Things and the pandemicflu.gov websites have been up for over a year, we had our state pandemic summit last Feb, and, we’re just going through an election cycle without one public question asked candidates about pandemic preparedness.
“Consent of the governed” is going to just keep getting harder to find, at this rate.
Olymom – at 01:10 I am amazed the fd went along, and, that a business offered a prize! Wouldn’t matter if people felt comfortable putting their name in, as long as they read and prepared. Wonder if the locals here would sponsor such a thing, (though I might like to add the Flu Wiki and federal website on there somewhere quietly…maybe between the For Adults only and the Brought to You By…) good for you for being fun and sassy!
Pixie – at 20:12, Exactly. :-)
OK… at my Town meeting it was suggested that I form a committee for the towns pandemic planning.
I am totally new to this and began by setting up meetings with certain people -
Church pastor - He listened closely, asked several good questions and politely ended the meeting - 15 minutes.
Local Public Health Officer - Lunch meeting - almost 2 hrs - he doesnt think there will be a pandemic… if there is doesnt think it will be bad… if there is bad doesnt think JIT will collapse - he just doesnt see the need to prep for more than a couple of weeks.
Food Market, Hardware store managers - they were open to attending a meeting concerning surge capacity.
Local talk radio - said they were interested in the story - never heard back
Local TV news - they actually came to my home and did a prep story - should air this month 11pm news - they were having trouble getting a med pref (webster i think) for an interview… they felt they needed a “higher” authority.
School board - i have sent email after email with materials and news items from FW… no response.
OK now… any advice? I haven’t moved past this point. I am not sure what to do or who else to bring in. Do i focus on helping the Town prep their own (police fire etc.), do i focus on individual family prep only - raise awareness? There is no funding…
Any thoughts?
IT is sad but at some point in this, we need to look after ourselves and our loved ones. I gave up on helping the valley here on this a long time ago, because 1. most people did not care 2. the local people in power did not want the information 3. did not have the funding to do anything about anything ,,,,,,,,,so what I did was shift gears and try to get friends and family more concerned with it. By reading tidbits alittle at a time, and now with the latest news from WHO about the bug most likely not getting less in CFR and the new spreading very fast flu in China, some are beginning to pay attention more and more. With each small victory on this front, makes my effort worth while. And yes when I walk around the local casinos and stores,,,,,like you I see dead people walking,,,,,and that is sad but reality.
Show people (under fed/state tab) we are supposed to have been having a “Pandemic Preparedness Coordinating Committee”, because the federal and state governments have given notice they cannot help and it is local responsibility to care for people homebound by illness or quarantines and disruptions are expected during a pandemic influenza year.
Which are the religious committees who currently help members with medical problems, meal delivery, or organizing meals after funerals, memorial services, ect? Would those people benefit from a talk with you? (Maybe having a group together, so they know others have also heard the news?)
Would printed handouts for faith communities to have out at coffee help, maybe the Pandemic Awareness cards, and some copies of the checklist for faith communities from the federal government? (I still also like the “Last time we were closer to a pandemic we were in a pandemic” FAQ -is that on the singtome… site)
Does the local health officer expect if pandemic did occur churches would be stepping in -are they mentioned in plan assumptions, but not spoken with yet?
(I get the impression local Red Cross is between a rock and a hard place, much like the hospitals. Don’t ask, don’t tell? Official plans people silently feel in their hearts are not up to an actual pandemic -if they’ve actually had any mention passed down to them?)
Food market and hardware store managers, can they get info out so their employees know and prep at home, and also advertise that HHS Leavitt, the pres, who ever will click in your area -when was your state’s summit? - pull some quotes about what they said to have to prepare -
the “can you handle a YOYO?” memo was funny (can’t find the thread - need to get offline a while ago) and could perhaps run in a local paper as an ad, said what sort of things to have.
Can state lawmakers decide to remind the public about pandemic preparedness and have another tax-free (if you have a sales tax) weekend for Pandemic emergency food, OTC meds, stockpiling, or special list of safety items at hardware stores? Do some of the math for them what a couple of weeks for a person eating at home is?
Skip the school board, and find the emails for all the PTOs and show them the thread/ IOM slides/graphs about School Closures. Add the fed http://pandemicflu.gov/plan/individual/index.htmllink.
The recent Helen Branswell article about high death rate from the WHO must count for something.
What about contacting the local Boy and Girl Scout groups, with the links, and ask if families are aware and preparing for pandemic influenza?
Please approach the local funeral homes and ask if they’ve seen the federal and WHO pandemic websites that have been up for over a year, and if the local authorities have been including them in their mass fatailty plans… and get them looking at the Flu Wiki and the mass fatality plans threads. (Because the local plans are really only workable for limited events with outside help).
Why haven’t they heard about it if it was going to happen? Because they say it is more important to prevent panic now than prepare, but once pandemic starts it is too late to prepare against it, and scientists say we’ve already had our months of warning.
Good luck… I’ve got to try, try, again… I do not like learning how to do this, but it’s horrible to know and say nothing.
YOYO memois right above! - don’t know whether I’m coming or going this morning -woke up too early- I do think getting neighborhoods at least aware may help, but we are not going to be ok surrounded by unprepared municipalities.
:-(