(If you want any of the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)
Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 2 November 2006
| Cases Discussed | Jun-06 | Jul-06 | Aug-06 | Sep-06 | Oct-06 | Nov-06 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Died, no tests | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 17 |
| Died, tested positive | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| Other tested positive | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Suspected symptoms | 4 | 2 | 46 | 38 | 34 | 0 | 124 |
| Tested negative | 0 | 6 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 58 |
| Totals | 10 | 14 | 81 | 64 | 50 | 0 | 219 |
Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions or to add news
| No | Region Name | No | Region Name | No | Region Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA | 8 | East Africa | 15 | Arab Peninsula |
| 2 | Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Circle | 9 | Southern Africa and Madagascar | 16 | Central Asia |
| 3 | Central America and Caribbean | 10 | Northwest Europe and British Isles | 17 | Southern Asia |
| 4 | South America and Surrounding Islands | 11 | West and Southwest Europe | 18 | Mainland East Asia and Japan |
| 5 | Northern Africa | 12 | Central and Southeast Europe | 19 | Southeast Asia |
| 6 | West Africa | 13 | Eastern Europe and Baltic Region | 20 | Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia |
| 7 | Central Africa | 14 | Middle East and Caucasus Region | 21 | Pacific Islands and Antarctic |
(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)
(Separate threads exist for India, Indonesia and Nepal. See News Summary below for links)
(From WHO as at 31 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 152 (2006 – 109 with 74 deaths)
China
India
Indonesia
Nepal
United Kingdom
United States of America
Vietnam
General
Link to news thread for 2 November (link News Reports for November 2 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.
Health Emergency in Mannar as Virus Fever Spreads—This sounds bad, could someone please find the article and print details. I am out of town on a borrowed computer. Google title or www.tamilnet.com—Thanks
witness -
Here is the article: http://tinyurl.com/wyrmu
The article is as follows:
A virus fever is spreading fast in Mannar district and daily hundreds of persons affected by the fever are seeking treatment in the Mannar general hospital and private medical institutions, health officials in Mannar said. Mannar General hospital is overflowing with the large influx of affected civilians, hospital sources said. Mannar hospital authorities are working round the clock to provide treatment to these patients with limited resources. However about twenty patients are admitted daily to the wards in the hospital.
The mysterious virus fever first originated from the village Pallimunai has now spread to all parts of the district including the LTTE held villages, civil sources said. Dispensaries in LTTE held villages experience acute shortage of drugs and related medical facilities due to the restriction in transporting medicines from government controlled areas, sources said.
Medical officers in Mannar general hospital have taken steps to sent blood samples of ten patients in a special vehicle to Medical Research Institute (MRI) in Colombo to identify the details of the virus, sources said. Medical sources speculated that refugees who returned to Mannar from South India recently may have brought the new virus to Mannar area, sources said. [end of story]
From research: Mannar is part of Sri Lanka - an island of 300 sqkm joined by a causeway to the main island. The district includes some of the main island as well.
UK - Flu pandemic exercise takes shape - Winter Willow
A “real time” simulation exercise is being drawn up by the government that will pull in all parts of the public sector to test the country’s readiness for a flu pandemic.
Exercise “Winter Willow” will take place over at least three weeks from late January and involve officials from cabinet level down to individual health trusts, the police and education authorities across the UK.
Continued.
WHO report calls H5N1 vaccine stockpiling premature Robert Roos News Editor
Nov 2, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – A group of influenza experts convened by the World Health Organization cautioned today that governments shouldn’t stockpile “pre-pandemic” H5N1 influenza vaccines now, because too little is known about the requirements for an effective vaccine.
The group of 22 scientists, who met for 2 days in September, “agreed that governments should not rush to place orders for pre-pandemic vaccines when so many fundamental scientific questions are still outstanding,” says their report.
The United States and some other countries have been stockpiling H5N1 vaccines, despite lack of assurance that they would be effective against a pandemic strain. Switzerland recently announced plans to buy enough vaccine for the entire Swiss population.
Continued.
NEWS - FRANCE - Le Monde, quoting AFP at 10.35 am - http://tinyurl.com/ybf2f4 - Almost complete and verbatim translation in the Lookout Post for West and SouthWest Europe )http://tinyurl.com/yfr4mb?:
The French Health Minister has today stated that France remains in a reinforced vigilance state with respect to avian influenza. […] The government has also put together a civil commission of citizens in charge of imagining what would be life during a flu pandemic. For example, how would hospitals continue to function, how we could continue going shopping, how we could keep our habits to go into work, what day care would be for children. France is well prepared… [said he, not me]
November 3, 2006
Science Daily
“The highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza has been detected in at least 55 countries in Asia, Europe, and Africa. This often fatal disease is of pressing concern because it can be transmitted from birds to humans, although such transmissions have been rare so far.
“Unfortunately, according to a Roundtable article in the November 2006 BioScience, the journal of the American Institute of Biological Sciences (AIBS), critical information about incidence of the disease in wild birds—even the species of the infected bird—is often recorded inaccurately or not recorded at all.’‘’ The deficiencies in data collection, the authors write, “can lead to unwarranted assumptions and conclusions that in turn affect public perceptions, practical control and management measures, and the disposition of resources.”
Bird flu is typically studied by veterinarians and virologists. The article’s authors, Maï Yasué, Chris J. Feare, Leon Bennun, and Wolfgang Fiedler, made use of the Aiwatch (avian influenza watch) e-mail forum to gather information for their article from sources worldwide. They describe several instances in which the species of an infected wild bird was incorrectly or inadequately recorded—sometimes just as “wild duck,” for example—and others in which the bird’s sex and age were misidentified.”
Nov 3/06
Washington, (ANTARA News) - “Migrating ducks, geese, and swans spread the H5N1 bird flu virus from Russia to Romania, Turkey and Ukraine, researchers said on Thursday.
‘’‘A careful analysis of the spread of the virus from central Asia into eastern Europe in the autumn of 2005 shows that wild birds, especially mallard ducks, were the chief spreaders of the virus.
“We conclude that the spread of (highly pathogenic avian influenza) H5N1 virus from Russia and Kazakhstan to the Black Sea basin is consistent in space and time with the hypothesis that birds in the Anatidae family have seeded the virus along their autumn migration routes,” the researchers wrote in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.’‘’
Anatidae include geese, ducks and swans, some of which are killed by H5N1, and other species of which often show no ill effects from the virus but which can spread it. Mallard ducks are the main suspect.”
Virulence and resistance discussed
Published Friday 3rd November 2006 11:36 GMT
“The World Health Organisation has warned that there is no guarantee that a pandemic strain of the H5N1 virus will be less deadly to people.The report, published this week, contains the findings of a meeting of flu experts held last month. The method of change will determine how deadly the virus is, the report says. If the virus changes by exchanging genes with a human flu virus, a process called reassortment, a pandemic might not be too deadly. However, straightforward adaptive mutation would leave the virulence of the disease unchanged, the scientists warned.
It also cautioned against regarding the anti-viral drug Tamiflu as a magic bullet, highlighting that some H5N1 viruses seem to already be naturally resistant to the effects of the drug.The report comes less than two weeks after the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) in the UK issued a warning about the possible environmental effects of large scale use of Tamiflu.
Dr Andrew Singer of the CEH said: “An antiviral drug has never been widely used before, so we need to determine what might happen. During a flu pandemic, millions of people will all take Tamiflu at the same time. Over just eight or nine weeks, massive amounts of the drug will be expelled in sewage and find its way into the rivers. It could have huge effects on the fish and other wildlife.
“JELLYFISH and chips may be one of the few seafood dishes on the menu by 2048, with experts predicting the collapse of almost all forms of marine life.
A study of the world’s underwater eco-systems found that if overfishing and pollution continue amid climate change, then most species will decline to just 10 per cent of historic levels.”
- Between Tamiflu and Global warming fish don’t have a chance.
UKBird @ 04:26 “WHO report calls H5N1 vaccine stockpiling premature…”
CDC places order for 190,000 doses of H5N1 Would you consider this stockpiling?
that should read 190,000 doses of H5N1 vaccine.
cottontop – at 09:10
CDC places order for 190,000 doses of H5N1 vaccine. Would you consider this stockpiling?
I suppose it depends on how many people you plan on sharing it with :-o
Klatu - at 8:46
Information On Bird Flu Cases Poorly Recorded, Scientists Say
(…no kidding……)
Many workers fear losing jobs if flu pandemic strikes
11/3/06 8:15 AM / By Bill Leonard
Nearly one-fourth of working Americans say they probably would lose their job or business if forced to stay home for seven to 10 days during a severe flu pandemic, according to a study released on Oct. 27 by the Harvard School of Public Health.
The study found that most U.S. citizens would cooperate during the early stages of a pandemic or health emergency. However, after a week to 10 days, financial needs and worries about losing their jobs or businesses would force nearly 25 percent of the survey respondents back to work. More than one-third (35 percent) of the respondents reported that they would still go to work if public health officials told them to stay home but their employers wanted them to report to work.
“The findings of this survey are a wake-up call for business, that employees have serious financial concerns and are unclear about the workplace plans and policies for dealing with pandemic flu,” said Robert J. Blendon, a professor with the Harvard School of Public Health and co-author of the study.
While the study found that workers are willing to make major changes in their lives and routines to help prevent the spread of the flu, confusion over how to respond to the crisis is evident.
“I believe awareness and planning for a pandemic crisis is better than the survey actually shows, but there is still much that needs to be done and questions answered [about] how the federal government will respond, such as when and how do schools, airports and port facilities close when a pandemic strikes,” said Ann Beauchesne, executive director of the homeland security division of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
<snip> more at http://tinyurl.com/yg4c87
Sounds like Who and CDC are in conflict with each other.
CDC is taking this seriously enough to invest the money in a vaccine that is only good for this season since its shelf like is only between 6 months and one year. Does the CDC therefore feel that there is a legitimate threat of bird flu going pandemic within the next year?
This action seems to indicate “yes.”
That action alone should really wake people up… this is real folks. They are spending money now on a short-term risk assessment. And that action also comes right on the heals of the announcement that we may not see a significant drop in virulence when this does go pandemic.
NEWS - World Trade Organization - http://tinyurl.com/ycoen6 - Now, please don’t go thinking this is important, because after reading it, well, it’ll get to nothing, even though there’s money pledged in this action. Still, it’s the first PR I remember on the subject. Title is: “Sanitary and phytosanitary measures - International bodies join forces to advise OIE animal health and welfare fund”.
Comment - After seeing so much published in the last few days from international organizations and in serious newspapers/magazines, I’m seriously wondering if we’re not being slowly primed for dreadful announcements in the next few months… (Or ……….. are every PTB all over the planet waking up at the same time??
- It light of continuing communications issues in China, developing a vaccine might be problematic.
“”“We really don’t know how many strains of bird flu there are: WHO’‘’
13:08 03 November 2006 NewScientist.com news service
Bird flu special report, New Scientist
“China’s lack of transparency over its handling of bird flu is making it difficult to determine how the deadly virus is mutating and spreading, a leading World Health Organization official said on Friday.
“The situation in China is quite confusing and there is some conflicting information,” said Julie Hall, the WHO’s coordinator of epidemic alert and response in China. “We really don’t know how many strains of bird flu there are in China because we have limited amounts of information shared with us by the Ministry of Agriculture and the virus samples we have asked for have not been shared.”
Hall’s criticisms come the day China rejected claims by scientists that a new strain of the virus – dubbed the “Fujian-like” strain – has emerged and is spreading rapidly through southern China and neighbouring countries (see New strain of H5N1 bird flu emerges in China).
China’s Ministry of Agriculture said the findings, contained in a report in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, “did not completely conform with facts” and there was no evidence of major changes to the virus since 2004.”
The CDC vaccine order of 190,000 doses referred to above, was placed by the CDC in Taiwan (not the U.S.), as seen at this thread. The original source article came from the Taipei Times.
NEWS
State waives limit on flu shot for kids
TEMPORARY ORDER ALLOWS VACCINE CONTAINING MERCURY-LACED PRESERVATIVE
[snip]
[snip]
Article may require free registration: On the web here
Long intervals of stasis punctuated by bursts of positive selection in the seasonal evolution of influenza A virus
Biology Direct 2006, 1:34 (26 October 2006)
Most influenza gene sequencing is done as part of international surveillance programs whose focus on identifying serologically novel strains, results in biased samples of the viral population. (14,15).
One goal of this project (The Influenza Genome Sequencing Project) was to provide researchers with a large set of sequenced isolates that represent a relatively unbiased, i.e., not enchriched in antigencially novel isolates, view of influenza strains in the population. “(excerpt)
(Provisional PDF)
Report: Flu pandemic would kill 2,000 to 5,000 South Carolinians “A pandemic flu by definition would cause at least 1.2 million South Carolinians to fall ill with a novel strain of influenza, forcing an estimated 17,000 into hospitals and killing between 2,000 and 5,000 people….
The 74-page report warns that a pandemic would stress all states and the federal government, and South Carolina would have to be ready to respond with little outside aid….
here is the link to the news article http://tinyurl.com/ygxqfm
and this is the link to the report itself (large pdf) http://tinyurl.com/ykhe4o
Report: Flu pandemic would kill 2,000 to 5,000 South Carolinians “A pandemic flu by definition would cause at least 1.2 million South Carolinians to fall ill with a novel strain of influenza, forcing an estimated 17,000 into hospitals and killing between 2,000 and 5,000 people….
And then goes on to state “would last 6 weeks in a community.”
Where did they pull their Pandemic definition from? LaLa Land? South Carolina has a population of around 4,000,000. Even with the most optimistic CFR available their 1.2 million cases should result in a somewhat higher number of deaths, like 24,000 deaths at a 2% CFR. IMHO, of course.
(Although this story isn’t new to us, the headline used in a mainstream news source is pleasantly surprising.)
WHO issues startling bird flu report
The World Health Organization has just completed a report that raises startling concerns about the so-called Bird Flu. While the virus has killed millions of birds, mostly in Asia, overseas there has been a minute number of human infections. To date, according to the WHO, 256 people have been infected and 152 of those have died. That’s nearly a 60 percent death rate.
And in the new report, the WHO says if the virus becomes easily transmissible between people as a result of mutation,”.. then the present high lethality could be maintained during a pandemic.”
The report also raises concern about vaccine. It says, “Efforts to develop a vaccine that confers adequate protection have been greatly complicated by the emergence of … diverse viruses…” The report adds “.. Decisions about which vaccines to stockpile may be premature.”
Infectious Disease expert Dr. Michael Osterholm says, “We have no evidence that these vaccines will protect, and on top of it, we just don’t have the production capability.” So even if an effective vaccine is created, it most likely can’t be manufactured fast enough to be distributed to all those who would need it.
(link http://tinyurl.com/ydbqq3)
Sorry, I tried to get the picture from the story as well but have no idea how to make it stick in here. It is worth a look at (IMHO anyway).
Recombinomics Commentary
November 3, 2006
The authors believe it is likely that the spread of this new sub-lineage represents a third wave of the H5N1 panzootic. The first wave occurred in early 2004, primarily in Southeast Asia. The second wave started with the outbreak in migratory waterfowls at Qinghai Lake in the spring of 2005 and spread to Europe and Africa. Now this FJ-like sub-lineage is replacing the previously predominant H5N1 strains throughout much of southern China.
Unless the ministry tell us what’s going on and shares viruses on a regular basis, we will be doing diagnostics on strains that are old.” Delays in sharing also make it impossible for manufacturers to access the expected efficacy of vaccine candidates under development.
“The above comments indicate a review of the history and status of the Fujian H5N1 in southern China is in order.
The report included addition human isolates, which all had the novel cleavage site. Similarly, sequences from multiple poultry outbreaks were compared to the prototype isolate and most were over 98–99% homologous, indicating that the H5N1 in China in early 2006 was primarily the Fujian strain.
Additional sequences from Laos and Malaysia, deposited at Los Alamos in March 2006 also had the novel cleavage site as did wild bird isolates from Hong Kong deposited in June, 2006. In August WHO came out with pandemic target recommendations, which included the Fujian strain, which was classified as Clade 2 sub-clade 3.
Thus, although the recent PNAS publication provided data on increasing frequency of detection of the Fujian strain in China, as well as the low antibody titers to the Fujian strain, the presence of the Fujian strain in China has not produced major changes in long range migratory birds carrying the Qinghai strain to Russia, Mongolia, India, Afghanistan, Europe, the Middle East or Africa. Similarly, there has not been an impact on the Indonesian strain of H5N1 in Indonesia.
The sequences of the Fujian strain may impact these strains, but there has been no evidence of the Fujian strain replacing these endemic strains outside of eastern China or Southeast Asia. However, these is evidence of exchange of genetic information via recombination.
However, virtually all of the H5N1 HPAI isolates to the west of China, as described above were the Qinghai strain.
Thus, the surveillance in eastern and southern China has not picked up the Qinghai strain until 2006, when the first and only isolate was deposited at Genbank in association with the PNAS publication. It is closely related to the Qinghai isolates from Qinghai Lake, but the less common polymorphisms are found in east Asian H5N1 instead of the Qinghai isolates to the west.
Thus, there is no evidence that the Fujian strain is replacing the Qinghai strain in southern China because the Qinghai strain has only been detected once in eastern China, and that isolate was from 2006.
Similarly, there is no evidence of the Indonesian strain being replace by either the Qinghai or Fujian strain. On Bali isolate had the Qinghai cleavage site on an Indonesian genetic background, but there have been no H5H1 isolates outside of southern China and southeast Asia that have had the Fujian cleavage site.
Thus, the Fujian strain may be replacing the H5N1 isolate like the 2003 prototype …..”
- excerpts
Bird flu drill ruffles feathers
Winnipeg — There are no chickens and the sky isn’t falling.
The Canadian Food Inspection Agency confirmed Friday its officials have been engaged in a mock avian influenza outbreak that has frightened hundreds of residents in southern Manitoba.
People living near Steinbach have seen workers in white bio-hazard suits near the community, prompting at least 100 phone calls and e-mails to radio stations as far away as Winnipeg with questions as to what is going on.
An official with the food agency in Calgary, who didn’t want to be publicly identified, said there is no actual outbreak. But she confirmed the agency is testing both the equipment and procedures that would be needed if avian flu hit.
Bird flu drill ruffles feathers
Canadian Press Winnipeg — There are no chickens and the sky isn’t falling.
The Canadian Food Inspection Agency confirmed Friday its officials have been engaged in a mock avian influenza outbreak that has frightened hundreds of residents in southern Manitoba.
People living near Steinbach have seen workers in white bio-hazard suits near the community, prompting at least 100 phone calls and e-mails to radio stations as far away as Winnipeg with questions as to what is going on.
An official with the food agency in Calgary, who didn’t want to be publicly identified, said there is no actual outbreak. But she confirmed the agency is testing both the equipment and procedures that would be needed if avian flu hit.
(link http://tinyurl.com/ygl4sa)
It doesn’t mention the illness but this one set off some internal alarms for some reason. Maybe it’s the fact that she made it so far and died of something here.
http://wtopnews.com/?nid=25&sid=963567
ROCKVILLE, Md. — An unidentified woman found last month at a Metro station has died, and Montgomery County Police are asking for the public’s help in identifying her.
The woman died Thursday and was found unconscious and suffering from a life-threatening illness two weeks ago at the Shady Grove metro station, police say.
She remained hospitalized until her death, but did not allow doctors to treat her and showed signs of mental illness, police say.
Police say the woman suffered from amnesia and referred to herself as “Happy Richard” and had recently arrived from Egypt.
Anyone with information should call the Montgomery County Police’s non-emergency number at 301–279–8000.
OMG.
Not the “Happy Richard” virus too!
Lord, when will it end!
;-)
More evidence for genetics and severity of flu symptoms;
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (Nov. 3, 2006) _ With lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic in the rearview mirror and the avian flu a looming obstacle in the road ahead, researchers from Southern Illinois University School of Medicine are trying to understand why a flu virus kills some people but not others.
With the help of some high tech equipment, well-defined mouse models and lots of analytical know how, physiologists are beginning to hone in on the secret to this differential response. It’s probably in the genes – and the proteins they encode.
Two studies to be presented at The American Physiological Society conference “Physiological Genomics and Proteomics of Lung Disease” have found that a strain of mice that is more likely to die of influenza infection mounts a dramatically enhanced immune response in the lungs compared to a strain of mice that generally develops milder disease.
TreasureIslandGal @ 9:48
And that action also comes right on the heals of the announcement that we may not see a significant drop in virulence when this does go pandemic.
“When” this goes pandemic? I read that same news release many times and never saw it say “when”.
I understand what you are saying though. IF it goes pandemic, let’s hope for a reassorted virus, that tames that sucker down!
India all set to fight bird flu
ECONOMY BUREAU Posted online: Saturday, November 04, 2006 at 0041 hours IST
NEW DELHI, NOV 3: India is fully prepared to control any outbreak of avian influenza, said a government release after the country was declared ‘free of the disease’ in August, this year. According to the release, the government’s strategy to fight out the disease includes continued surveillance throughout the country, especially in areas where bird flu outbreak was noticed in February this year.
More than 73,000 samples have been tested at the high security animal disease laboratory (HSADL) in Bhopal since the first outbreak. Routine surveillance combined with active and focused surveillance in vulnerable areas is being continued to ensure early detection in case of fresh outbreak. The government’s will also give thrust to training human resources and dissemination of information on bird flu to reduce the risk of human transmission effectively in the event of any outbreak.
Modalities for sharing virus isolates of bird flu are being worked out between the Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).
Training of veterinary personnel to undertake control and containment operations for avian influenza is being continued as a priority activity. The department of animal husbandry, dairying and fisheries has developed a training module for the disease which has been tested through a two-day conference at Pune and has been circulated to the regional level. Training of veterinarians is being regularly conducted by the department.
I got this in my email today. Apologies if it already has been posted
CQ HEALTHBEAT NEWS Nov. 1, 2006 – 5:14 p.m. DHS Should Take Lead Role in Monitoring Pandemic Preparations, Report Finds By Cheyenne Hopkins, CQ Staff
The Department of Homeland Security should take the lead in monitoring pandemic flu preparedness plans in the public and private sector, a report by the Financial Services Roundtable recommended on Wednesday.
The report also said as many as 40 percent of workers would stay at home for extended periods of time in the event of a pandemic, contrasting the results of a survey released last month. (See related story, CQ HealthBeat, Oct. 26, 2006). Given this loss in workforce, the report said it’s essential that private and public bodies continue to function.
The report, titled “Preparing for Pandemic Flu: A Call to Action,” contains preliminary findings by the roundtable’s Blue Ribbon Commission on Mega-Catastrophes. A final report will be released in April 2007.
Robert Litan, vice president for research and policy at the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation in Kansas City, Mo., and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the key finding of the study is that the government is not ready for a pandemic.
Among the 22 recommendations, the report calls on every organization, public and private, to develop a pandemic plan. It recommends that private sector organizations collaborate with each other and the DHS, along with the Treasury Department, to facilitate these efforts. It also calls for private sector firms to develop triggers for the implementation of a pandemic response plan.
The roundtable recommends that the U.S. government allocate $10 billion more than the $7 billion already committed to accelerate flu preparation.
Tara O’Toole, chief executive officer and director of the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, said most importantly that funding is needed and that the federal government currently does not have pandemic preparation at the top of its list. She said a lack of vaccine stockpile preparedness would “collapse” the U.S. health care system.
“This is a looming threat and it’s not going to go away,” O’Toole said. She encouraged businesses to use their influence to pressure the federal government to act more aggressively.
Annie Searle, senior vice president and divisional executive for the Enterprise Risk Services Technology Solutions Group of Washington Mutual, said it currently is unclear to businesses if the expense for a plan is justified and called on the DHS to be more aggressive in monitoring businesses’ plans.
Searle said a pandemic outbreak would be unlike any other disaster banks have faced because of the coordination barrier it would create. She said a priority will be for banks to keep cash flowing, but a decrease in workers due to a pandemic would hinder financial institutions.
The report calls for the Federal Reserve to lend money to local banks to enable the financial institutions to keep functioning in the event of a pandemic.
Litan said the financial sector is at the leading edge on preparedness but it also is dependent on other sectors that are lagging behind.
For example, according to O’Toole, hospitals are not preparing because of lack of funding and the complication of implementing a plan.
The report also calls for the federal government to expedite flu vaccination development. The federal government currently plans to be able to produce enough vaccine to inoculate all Americans within 6 months of an outbreak by 2011. The report said this is not a “workable plan” and access to a vaccine should be available well before 2011.
To speed up vaccine development, the report calls on the federal government to take the lead in funding research and development of vaccine production and to not rely solely on cell-based technologies as the only alternative to egg-based production — the method currently used.
It also calls on the Department of Health and Human Services to regularly evaluate its vaccine priority plans and the federal government to explore ways to license the use of technologies that will significantly increase vaccine production capacity.
On Sept. 26, the House passed a bill (HR 5533) that would create a new agency, within HHS, to lead efforts to discover and produce vaccines for potentially disastrous diseases, but the Senate has not acted.
Mojo - any chance of a link to the original newsletter?
I also got a pdf with this titled Preparing for pandemic flu A call to Action an Interim Report by the Blue Ribbon Commission on Mega Catastrophes of the Financial services Roundtable. if anyone would like it email me and I will send it on. I have no idea how to put it up here.
AnnieB, no I don’t have a link but I do have the pdf file.
mojo,
Can you email that to me at anon_22 AT hotmail DOT co DOT uk
thanks!
right click on your mouse over the pdf file, either pick “copy shortcut” or “check properties” and copy and paste link—works alot of times.
Anon_22, It is on the way. KimT the pdf was attached to an email so there is no link unless I am totally missing it. It is an interestsing pdf so I hope anon_22 can figure out how to share it.
thanks, I will get Dem to upload it to the ftp. Give us a day, cos I think he is not on right now.
Our local community information night made the local paper. Link:
http://www.theolympian.com/112/story/48725.html
The speakers were pretty blunt:
First responders would be delayed if they were able to respond at all.
Hospital emergency rooms would overflow. Schools would close for weeks, if not months. And with as much as 30 percent of the work force too sick to show up at their jobs, public utilities, banks, grocery stores, pharmacies and other vital services could be compromised.
That’s why people must be prepared to care for themselves should a pandemic flu outbreak hit Washington state, state and local health officials said Thursday at an informational meeting sponsored by Griffin School District.
“If there is a major flu pandemic, the medical system as we know it will collapse,” said John Hautala, a physician at Mason General Hospit
‘Bird flu to remain major threat for next decade: UN ’
By AFP First Published: November 3, 2006
CAIRO: Avian influenza is likely to remain a significant global threat for animals and humans for the next decade, top UN coordinator David Nabarro said Thursday.
“The virus is likely to be with us for the five or ten years to come,” he told AFP in an interview.
According to the UN’s health agency, the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of the virus has been confirmed in 256 humans worldwide since the first outbreak in 2003. It was lethal in at least 152 cases.
Nabarro, who was tasked last year by the world body with containing the crisis, warned that the international community had to remain on high alert for the possible mutation of the virus into one communicable between humans.
“The risk of a mutation to cause pandemic is still very much there,” he said. “As long as the virus is present in birds, there will also be a threat of sporadic human infection, and a possibility of a mutation which would cause at the end of the day a pandemic.”
“Trying to estimate the potential mortality of a pandemic is very hard. What I’ve already said is that you could have of range of between five and 150 million” deaths, said Nabarro.
“It’s the reason why I do think we a have to put now plenty of energy towards a long term reform of the poultry farming techniques, in order to reduce the risks of human infection.”
Nabarro said frequent occurrences of sporadic human infections meant the virus would not be eliminated for some time, but he voiced his hope that efforts deployed to combat the virus in recent months would have increased preparedness for a pandemic.
“The difference now is that countries all over the world are much more geared up to deal with this phenomenon than they were a year ago. It gives me some hope that when the virus appears in a new country, it can be controled,” he said.
On a recent visit to Cairo to attend a global health research forum, Nabarro praised the Egyptian authorities’ performance in handling the bird flu outbreak.
With seven lethal human cases in less than a year, Egypt is the hardest-hit non-Asian country.
As a side note, check out the Nepal Thread as that is getting real interesting.
I have problem with Hungarian but … it seems that a 25 year old Chinese man has been rushed to a hospital in Kárpátalja,Ukraine. I don’t know much more but it is listed under epidemic warning.
I am just starting the News Summary so you might like to hold your posting for about 30 minutes …
Cheers and thanks
Sorry - I have been interrupted - have to leave for about 20 minutes -
carry on without me on this thread and I will start the new one when I get back
Cheers
Roche cuts price for flu drug
Preparing for avian flu pandemic, increased production capacity for Tamiflu
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On Friday, George Abercrombie, head of North American operations for Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche, spoke about how Roche is preparing for an outbreak of avian flu during a forum at the N.C. Biotechnology Center.
Roche makes Tamiflu, one of two antiviral drugs that are effective against the avian flu virus. It also makes and markets Fuzeon, an HIV/AIDS treatment discovered by Durham-based Trimeris.
Abercrombie, a former Glaxo Wellcome executive in Research Triangle Park, talked to staff writer Sabine Vollmer about Roche’s avian flu plans and Trimeris.
Q What steps has Roche taken to prepare?
It takes nine to 12 months to make Tamiflu, and global sales average about 5 million courses of treatment per flu season. We cannot simply flip a switch and make Tamiflu in the case of a pandemic. To help governments stockpile the drug, Roche has lowered the price it charges governments by about 60 percent and increased production capacity to about 400 million courses of treatment per year. A course of treatment is 10 capsules.
Roche also came up with a response plan [for its own operations], which includes factoring in an employee absenteeism rate of about 40 percent at the height of an outbreak and stockpiling basic supplies to continue production.
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oops will repost on Nov 4 thread - sorry!