From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Predictions

05 November 2006

moeb – at 15:23

Who’s Counting: Which ‘Experts’ Make Better Political Predictions?

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/WhosCounting/story?id=2624127&page=1

snip~

“This tendency to be swayed by extraneous facts and unexamined preconceptions is just one common failing. Experts, like commentators, politicians and everybody else, often fall victim to confirmation bias. This is the tendency, once you’ve made even a tentative decision, to avidly search for evidence confirming the wisdom of your decision and largely ignore evidence disconfirming it.”


COMMENT: While this news story is slanted to cover politics, it’s underlying themes ring well with pandemic predictions, or so I ask…

INFOMASS – at 15:41

In this case, public health people as well as politicians are afraid of crying “Wolf!” too often and being castigated as alarmist. I think many are alarmed themselves but do not think it prudent or perhaps possible to warn people to take this seriously. Similar problem with evacuations during hurricane warnings can be observed. That is on top of and not opposed to Moeb. Some others figure (maybe) it will be uncontrollable and better to take individual preps and not alert too many others?

Side Scroll – at 16:42
moeb – at 17:06
a’Akova – at 20:00

Interesting chart… but how do you interpret it ?

Oremus – at 22:35

It looks like walking down a tunnel.

moeb – at 22:53

The road through hell, from now til then

moeb – at 23:00

I guess it’s really just something to help me grasp the bigger picture

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