Forum: Dummies Corner

I’m sure some of us have questions we don’t like to ask because we think we should know the answer.

So here’s mine (well the first one anyway).

Did the 1918 flu, H1N1 and it’s kiddies stop killing people in bulk because they were partially immune (from having caught it) or because it mutated and the payload wasn’t as severe (ie no cytokine storm). Or if both, which is most significant. In other words, if the 1918 flu strain was re-released would it be as deadly?

Feel free to sigh and direct me to the wiki :-)

The main theory I recall was that mutating viruses follow the rule of “regression to the mean.” Two extremely tall human parents do not necessarily have extremely tall offspring. The ‘randomness’ of heights tends back toward the mean. So it is with viruses … as H1N1 continued to mutate, it tended back toward the mean of “somewhat less virulent” than the most-nasty from it took in 1918. Of course, that would be combined with the fact that many people had been exposed to H1N1 (but not made clinically ill), so they were less-likely to become ill during subsequent waves. There were probably other reasons, but those are the two I recall seeing in my reading.

most-nasty from = most nasty form.

Does anybody think that global warming is causing these viruses to be more visible, and more deadly?

Cottontop - see below and the answer is yes.

Days of Darkenss - AD 535 - 546

Each day, the morning sunrise is taken for granted. Based on the laws of science, it is expected that the sun will rise each day from east to west. Yet, the question must be asked, “what would happen if the sun didn’t rise?” This was the case from AD 535 through AD 546, with the darkest days in AD 536.

“A mighty roar of thunder” came out of the local mountain; there was a furious shaking of the earth, total darkness, thunder and lightning.” A Chinese court journal also made mention of “a huge thunderous sound coming from the south west” in February 535. And as a Hopi elder had said, thousands of miles away, “When the changes begin, there will be a big noise heard all over the Earth,” a low rumble reverberated across the planet.

“Then came forth a furious gale together with torrential rain and a deadly storm darkened the entire world,” read the Pustaka Raja Purwa or The Book of Ancient Kings, a buried Indonesian chronicle.

“The sun began to go dark, rain poured red, as if tinted by blood. Clouds of dust enveloped the earth… Yellow dust rained down like snow. It could be scooped up in handfuls,”5 wrote The Nan Shi Ancient Chronicle of Southern China, referring to the country’s weather in November and December 535.

Darkness followed making the day indistinguishable from the night. “There was a sign from the Sun, the likes of which had never been seen or reported before. The Sun became dark, and its darkness lasted for about 18 months. Each day, it shone for about four hours and still this light was only a feeble shadow. Everyone declared that the Sun would never recover its full light again. The fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes,”6 John of Ephesus, a Syrian bishop and contemporary writer, wrote in describing the unending darkness. “The sun became dim… for nearly the whole year… so that the fruits were killed at an unseasonable time,” John Lydus added, which was further confirmed by Procopius, a prominent Roman historian who served as Emperor Justinian’s chief archivist and secretary, when he wrote of 536, “…during this year a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the Moon, during this whole year… and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear.”7 “The sun… seems to have lost its wonted light, and appears of a bluish color. We marvel to see no shadows of our bodies at noon, to feel the mighty vigor of the sun’s heat wasted into feebleness,”8 Flavius Cassiodorus, another Roman historian wrote. Reports even indicated that midday consisted of “almost night-like darkness.”9

A cold then gripped the world as temperatures declined. “We have had a winter without storms…”10 “a spring without mildness [and] a summer without heat… The months which should have been maturing the crops have been chilled by north winds,”11 wrote Cassiodorus. “When can we hope for mild weather, now that the months that once ripened the crops have become deadly sick under the northern blasts? …Out of all the elements, we find these two against us: perpetual frost and unnatural drought,”12 he added,13 while in China, it was written, “the stars were lost from view for three months. The sun dimmed, the rain failed, and snow fell in the summertime. Famine spread, and the emperor abandoned his capital…”14 Other Chinese records referred to a “‘dust veil’ obscuring the sky” while Mediterranean historians wrote about a “‘dry fog’ blocking out much of the sun’s heat for more than year.”15 The sun was so ineffective that snow even fell during August in southern China and in every month of the year in northern Europe.

“Then came drought [or floods], famine, plague, death…”16 “Food is the basis of the Empire. Yellow gold and ten thousand strings of cash cannot cure hunger. What avails a thousand boxes of pearls to him who is starving of cold,” the Japanese Great King lamented in 540, while Cassiodorus added, “Rain is denied and the reaper fears new frosts.”17 And “as hard winters and drought continued into the second and third years [in Mongolia and parts of China, the Avars] unable to find food, unable to barter food from others…” began a 3,000-mile trek to new lands to save themselves and their families from annihilation and starvation.18

During this sustained period of unseasonably cold temperatures from 535–546 when the sun was ineffective and blotted out, plant life experienced stunted growth – tree rings from this period show little or no growth – and many crops failed. According to climatological research presented in 2001 by Markus Lindholm of the University of Helsinki, Finland, Abrupt changes in northern Fennoscandian summer temperatures extracted from the 7500-year ring-width chronology of Scots pine, the “most dramatic shift in growing conditions, from favorable to unfavorable, between two years, took place between A.D. 535–536” in Europe and Africa.19 His findings were corroborated by Mike Baillie of the University of Belfast, who based on his tree ring chronologies, some from specimens preserved in bogs, that dated back thousands of years stated, “It was a catastrophic environmental downturn that shows up in trees all over the world.20 Temperatures dropped enough to hinder the growth of trees as widely dispersed as northern Europe, Siberia, western North America, and southern South America.”21 Ominously, the cold brought rats, mice and fleas that normally lived outdoors, into peoples’ homes in search of food and warmth because of the decimation that was occurring to the animal population in the suddenly hostile, chilly dark environment. Deadly bacterium, Yersinia pestis was then transmitted to people and their pets.

In the ensuing unending darkness, chaos reigned as “whole cities were wiped out – civilizations crumbled.”22 Wars raged across Europe and the Middle East, prosperous societies were stripped of sustenance and wealth, economies collapsed and huge swaths of populations succumbed to disease and plague. “With some people it began in the head, made the eyes bloody and the face swollen, descended to the throat and then removed them from Mankind. With others, there was a flowing of the bowels. Some came out in buboes [pus-filled swellings] which gave rise to great fevers, and they would die two or three days later with their minds in the same state as those who had suffered nothing and with their bodies still robust. Others lost their senses before dying. Malignant pustules erupted and did away with them. Sometimes people were afflicted once or twice and then recovered, only to fall victim a third time and then succumb,”23 Evagrius, a 6th century Church historian wrote. In their final stages, people “generally entered a semi-conscious, lethargic state, and would not… eat or drink. Following this stage, the victims would be seized by madness… Many people died painfully when their buboes gangrened. A number of victims broke out with black blisters covering their bodies, and these individuals died swiftly.”24

Within seven years, due to the ivory trade, in which ships brought rats and sailors infected by the plague, Europe and the Middle East were being ravaged. In Constantinople alone, “they had to dispose of over 10,000 bodies a day, week after week, throwing them into the sea off special boats, sticking them in the towers of the city wall, filling up cisterns, digging up orchards. Soldiers were forced to dig mass graves… chaos and pandemonium [reigned]. Constantinople stank for months after months [from the decaying bodies that were stuffed in towers and stacked or dumped in streets]… [and] when the number of dead reached a quarter of a million, Constantinople officials simply stopped counting.25

An account by Procopius went as follows: “At first, relatives and domestics attended to the burial of the dead, but as the violence of the plague increased this duty was neglected, and corpses lay forlorn narrow in the streets, but even in the houses of notable men whose servants were sick or dead. Aware of this, Justinian placed considerable sums at the disposal of Theodore, one of his private secretaries, to take measures for the disposal of the dead. Huge pits [that could hold up to 70,000 corpses] were dug at Sycae, on the other side of the Golden Horn, in which the bodies were laid in rows and tramped down tightly; but the men who were engaged on this work, unable to keep up with the number of the dying, mounted the towers of the wall of the suburb, tore off their roofs, and threw the bodies in. Virtually all the towers were filled with corpses, and as a result ‘an evil stench pervaded the city and distressed the inhabitants still more, and especially whenever the wind blew fresh from that quarter.’”26

Out of fear, many people refused to venture out of their homes — “…houses became tombs, as whole families died from the plague without anyone from the outside world even knowing. Streets were deserted…”27 Furthermore because of this fear and/or the affects of suffering from high fever, scores of people hallucinated, seeing apparitions and visions. And with the vast pestilence and destruction all around them, many could not help but wonder if the apocalypse as described in Revelation 6:8 “And I looked, and behold, a pale horse; and his name that sat on him was Death”28 was upon them.

It was so bad that some thirty years later, Pope Gregory The Great wrote of Rome, “Ruins on ruins… Where is the senate? Where [are] the people? All the pomp of secular dignities has been destroyed… And we, the few that we are who remain, every day we are menaced by scourges and innumerable trials.”29 In its height, the plague “depopulated towns, turned the country into a desert and made the habitations of men to become the haunts of wild beasts”30 while in Africa, major ports ceased to exist and agricultural practices all but vanished.

“[And] as [others] left the stricken city [wearing identification tags so that their bodies would be buried if found] they took the plague to towns, villages and farms throughout the empire. [To compound matters, with trade and commerce virtually nonexistent, food became scarce leading to the starvation of others].31 Untold millions perished,”32 with an estimated death toll of 100 million, the worst pandemic in human history.

“Scandinavian elites” in feeble desperation, “sacrificed large amounts of gold… to appease the angry gods and get the sunlight back.”33 In Mesoamerica and the Andes, cities “of perhaps one million people” emptied out “practically overnight” through starvation and disease. Peoples turned on their gods and goddesses, violently smashing their images and burning temples and towards the end, they viciously fought each other having become “savage and warlike.”34

When the sun finally came out, overcoming the affects of a massive volcanic eruption, even though it hadn’t really been gone, minimizing the adverse affects and saving living creatures from complete extinction, the world was forever transformed. Countries and civilizations had ceased to exist while others emerged as the days of darkness “weakened the Eastern Roman Empire; created horrendous living conditions in the western part of Great Britain; contributed through drought… to the fall of the Teotihuacan civilization in Mexico; and through flooding to the collapse of a major center of civilization in Yemen;”35 while major upheavals occurred in China and France. More than half the world’s population when taking Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas, into account, along with countless numbers of plants and animals, had perished illustrating the fragile relationship that exists between people and nature.

Or maybe we just know more about the monsters that have always been out there in the darkness waiting for us (including global warming)? Mankind has had a nice hiatus during the golden age of antibiotics and vaccines. It’s coming as a shock to discover things like TB didn’t go away. they’ve just got bigger and badder.

Who knows how many times mankind has dodged (or not dodged) a bird virus in the past?

I wonder if the prevalence of viruses in birds stem from their ancient ancestory (dinosaurs)?

Dennis in Colorado – at 15:01 The main theory I recall was that mutating viruses follow the rule of “regression to the mean.” Two extremely tall human parents do not necessarily have extremely tall offspring. The ‘randomness’ of heights tends back toward the mean. So it is with viruses … as H1N1 continued to mutate, it tended back toward the mean of “somewhat less virulent” than the most-nasty from it took in 1918. Of course, that would be combined with the fact that many people had been exposed to H1N1 (but not made clinically ill), so they were less-likely to become ill during subsequent waves. There were probably other reasons, but those are the two I recall seeing in my reading.

Is this why they’re hoping H5N1 must become less deadly if it gains efficient H2H?

Dennis in Colorado – at 15:01 The main theory I recall was that mutating viruses follow the rule of “regression to the mean.”

uk bird – at 17:00 Is this why they’re hoping H5N1 must become less deadly if it gains efficient H2H?

I’m not sure. The “regression to the mean” rule would apply more to subsequent waves than it would to changes in efficiency of transmission. I am not fully convinced that a virus must become “less deadly” as it moves to efficient H2H; the only requirement I see is that the human hosts have to remain alive long enough for the coefficient of infectivity to remain above 1. However, there are others here who are better versed in virology than I — and I would welcome their input.

One thing about back in 1918 they didn’t have T.V, computers, cellphones to communicate to the world as fast as now. By the time most learned about what was in store for them it was to late, they were exposed. Now days, this is my opinion, that more will be able to survive better and we have better medical know how then back then. There is a huge majority of people out there that wouldn’t survive a week at home under any other disaster, man made or natural. I prep not just for the bird flu but for anything else that might come along. Anything can happen at anytime and most think I am totally wacky. I tell them I don’t care what they think and I care enough to take care of my family. I have been down and out after college and fished out of a stream by my house to survive from paycheck to paycheck and I never want to go thru that or see my children go thru that. I can afford to stockpile months or even a year, I am very fortunate and still have money to spare. But I tell the ones that say they can’t afford it that they can’t afford not to. If you have a super Walmart in your town, you can get very inexpensive food that you can survive on for just a few bucks. I tell them instead of buying that 12 pack of pop go in and see how much healthy food you can buy for that or buy non-perishable for that. It just takes a little sitting down and figuring it out. I also tell them to make a list of all the thing they use in a day and figure out what they could live with out and what they can’t. Planning ahead can mean life or death and I pick life.

There is some evidence from the work of Taubenberger that the PB1 gene, part of the polymeras complex which is also important for pathogenesis, is rather sensitive to human immune pressure. ie it tends to mutate quite quickly once the virus begins passing from human to human, and tries to adapt to the human immune system.

As a result of this adaptation, you may find some attenuation of its virulence. This would partially account for increasing transmission and decreasing virulence. The 1957 and 68 pandemics both involved acquisition of a new PB1 gene. JKT thinks this may make the reassortant virus gain a competitive advantage over other circulating strains, so that it dominates the next flu season, ie causing a pandemic.

However, this is just one model of how a pandemic virus is formed. We don’t know exactly what the mechanism was for 1918, but the different genes including PB1 were certainly all novel to humans. Whether in such a context, ie in 1918, the same attenuation occurs and whether it is for the same reason is still open to debate.

The following slide from one of JKT’s talks shows that the W shaped curve which was characteristic of 1918 but not of 57 or 68 persisted for a couple more years before flattening out to the normal pattern, which would suggest that the attenuation process was not completed till long after the time that we would consider ‘pandemic’.

uk bird,

THAT was definitely not a dummies’ question. It’s a difficult question that even the top scientists are still working on.

:-)

Geez-I thought y’all were going to ask dumb questions…..

This is interesting, because supports the reports I’ve read that there continued to be outbreaks and deaths past the period of time we (I) associate with the 1918 pandemic.

When does it end?

I am referring the future more than the past.

Bluebonnet – at 16:46 (shudder) Is there a link for that?

I guess we must all have an ancestor that got their genes through that, or we wouldn’t be here, eh?

Could someone explain in laymens terms what this new strain means,been off the wikie for a few days and my ppf is shooting up just by the tone here but I wish to understand why?I know I am on the right thread,dummies questions,only mine definately seems the dumbest!

Which “new” strain? ;-) There’s so many…(now I feel dumb! sorry, Malachi !)

I think from the recent IOM conference the figure of a pandemic with 2% cfr taking as many under age 19 as all other causes combined over two normal decades has given a handle we can get the public to know which end to take hold of.

crfullmoon - I watched a PBS (I think?) special this weekend called “Catastrophe.”

See the link below:

http://tinyurl.com/y4oet8

Some assorted dumb questions that I’ve been sitting on for awhile:

Is there any way H5N1 could combine with TB?

Why didn’t HPAI make it into N. America as was predicted by the migration patterns? I thought we were expecting its arrival by way of birds migrating out of Siberia (where, if I remember correctly, BF was fairly endemic) sometime this fall. It seems so strange to me that the virus traveled so quickly throughout Asia, Africa, Middle East, Europe, etc., and then just seemed to stop.

Ok, keep in mind that this is the place for dumb questions as you read this next one: Is there any possibility that a mild wave of one of the several strains of H5N1 could be circulating right now in the India, Pakistan, Nepal areas? I ask this because it seems like an awful lot of people are sick - including many health care workers, the CFR is apparently higher than is usual for dengue or chick (can’t spell that), a lot of sick people are testing negative for these diseases anyway, and no one seems to be testing for H5N1 even though BF has been found in these regions. By the accounts I’ve read, it seems like some of the doctors and health authorities over there are not entirely sure what they’re dealing with and even some press accounts are reporting it as a “mystery” virus - rather than dengue/chick/etc. I know that dengue, chick, and lots of other viruses are commonplace in these areas, but under the circumstances, wouldn’t it make sense to test any “mystery” virus just to rule out the possibility of it being H5N1?

JR- It is my understanding that H5N1 can not combine with TB. I think TB is a bacteria. I had wondered about this at one point, and I think I even asked it, (no dummies corner then).

I watched a show last night that discussed the Delta 32 genetic mutation that protects exposed individuals from developing HIV/AIDS. It was hypothesized that this mutation developed as a protection many years ago in response to some massive immunological assault. Investigation showed that there are many individuals (they identified some in the UK) who are descendants of victims of the Black Plague who carry this mutation.

It seems that the human immune system has evolved in some individuals to fight off tremendous immunological attacks. The show focused on a hemophiliac in the 80s who never developed AIDS in spite of receiving infected IV clotting factor. Mention was made that knowledge of this genetic mutation was being utilized to develop medications/treatments for AIDS, “bird flu”, etc.

It helps explain why at least some people will survive even the most heinous infections. Yay for human evolution!!!

Malachi – at 09:22 Could someone explain in laymens terms what this new strain means,been off the wikie for a few days and my ppf is shooting up just by the tone here but I wish to understand why?I know I am on the right thread,dummies questions,only mine definately seems the dumbest!

http://tinyurl.com/tcn88

I found this link to be a useful one for the new strain, it goes into more detail than many.

It’s worth reading in it’s entirety.

I took the article to mean that due to imperfect vaccination a new strain had evolved that didn’t kill poultry in large numbers but was still deadly to humans. Since China only checks for H5N1 in cases where birds die in close proximity, then there may be cases of BF in humans going undetected.

“As far as I know all 20 human cases recognised since November 2005 were caused by this virus,” Guan told New Scientist.

[snip]

Worryingly, the antibodies being used to develop human vaccines for H5N1 have been induced from 2004 strains of the virus – these antibodies do not recognise the Fujian strain. This means the current experimental pandemic vaccine would not work against any pandemic virus that emerged equipped with Fujian surface proteins.

We keep hearing that the current version of H5N1 has not made the mutations necessary for efficient human to human transmission, but Webster is saying that it’s moving that way. My stupid question/s, on the viral DNA do they KNOW what this mutation will look like? Or is it a big mystery that needs a pile of bodies to indicate? I just wondered how far they were with the mapping of the virus and understanding what they are seeing. Are there more of the little molecular blobs on the slide now than there were a year ago? I haven’t heard much the past two months about official test results or viral mutation and it worries me.

To answer Orlandopreppie’s question first, No, we don’t know what mutations are necessary. We can make some educated guesses, based on what mutations are most frequently found as differences between human and avian strains. For example, from the Influenza Genome project thread, you can see that Taubenberger’s group found 10 changes that are consistent with human vs avian type, while the Taiwan study found at least 6 of the same changes. Unfortunately, the first part of that thread is not available. I’ll get pogge to restore it later,

Secondly, its not surprising that current investigational vaccine strains are not protective against the new Fujian strain. This happens every year with seasonal flu, and it only confirms to us despite its unusual nature, H5N1 does have a lot of the characteristics of any other flu virus as well. This should be a wake-up call to those who think that H5N1 is not likely to become efficient in H2H infection, simply because it isn’t at the moment.

Thirdly, with regards to the new strain, imperfect vaccination is certainly likely to affect selection, but I don’t personally think it is the major cause. The reason why I say this is that there is far from uniformity among the different poultry vaccines used in a very big country, so if the ‘imperfectness’ of any vaccine was to drive evolution in a particular direction, there’s no reason that this direction should be exactly the same everywhere. What is more likely is that this new strain is naturally more ‘fit’ to start with, and any vaccination that lowers the survival of circulating H5N1 strains would favor the most ‘fit’. ie it has to be the most fit first, then it gets the advantage from the weakening of other strains.

The reason why this may be important is we must remember not to be too dogmatic in our beliefs, otherwise something else will happen and we won’t be able to interpret events accurately, if we buy into our beliefs too much.

(Bluebonnet, thanks for the link! …”For many years, humans forgot their glorious past and huddled in a state of ignorance and fear. Scientists have uncovered evidence from around the world that the early Dark Ages may have been triggered by an actual event that occurred around 535 A.D. Science writer David Keys believes that the cause was a natural phenomenon of cataclysmic proportions.”…)

And Anon22, that was an interesting slide at at 17:44 …

Another, but different, dummies question.

I know I’m not going to word this right or clearly but here goes: While I realize each pandemic is different and AV can’t really be considered the same as the 1918 flu, do those whose families survived the 20th century pandemics perhaps have an edge that those who lost family members don’t?

I’ve wondered about this since I heard someone say they had been freaking out until they checked their geneology and discovered none of their family had contracted any of the 20th century pandemics, or if they had, none had died. The person said it reassured him knowing he had inherited their immune systems and felt it would hold him in good stead if he contracted this AF.

Is that a reasonable assumption?

Caveat: Even if it were, I’d still prep.

Anon_22 - thank you so much for your response! FINALLY something even I can understand! Even though I work in cancer genetics (research wise) I still have a difficult time understanding some of the “science talk.”

Thanks again for putting this in terms we laypeople can understand.

Note to self: Read whole thread before posting.

Looks like I asked a variation of questions asked before.:D

Thank you very much for answering my question. I think I’ll go buy more rice.

I have a question —

   If a regular seasonal flu shot is only good for six months or a year, if a pandemic arrives, and we get flu shots for avian flu, will be continue to need to get shots every six months or so (like boosters for kids for some of the other common illnesses vaccines) or will only one shot be enough? 
    I am thinking that we could require shots every six months, and if the vaccine manufacturers take six months or more to make millions of ‘first injections’ , we will never have quite enough shots to go all around.  Would we have to take the flu shots every year for the rest of our lives? 

If someone contracts avian flu and takes tamiflu and they survive, will they have just as much immunity (to the same avian virus) as a person who did not take tamiflu and survived?

I have a new dummy question. If we SIP with a full tank of gas in the car and do not go anywhere for three months, or so, will the gas in the car still be good? Or will we have to add Stabil into the car’s tank at the onset of the SIP?

Good question. I’d like to know that too.

bump

Dummies round up

Questions answered, as far as I can tell

uk bird – at 14:37

cottontop – at 16:28

Malachi – at 09:22

JR – at 11:23

Texas Rose – at 16:20

Many thanks to those who answered… now all I need to do, is work on understanding the answers.

Unanswered so far.

JR – at 11:23

Why didn’t HPAI make it into N. America as was predicted by the migration patterns? I thought we were expecting its arrival by way of birds migrating out of Siberia (where, if I remember correctly, BF was fairly endemic) sometime this fall. It seems so strange to me that the virus traveled so quickly throughout Asia, Africa, Middle East, Europe, etc., and then just seemed to stop.

Ok, keep in mind that this is the place for dumb questions as you read this next one: Is there any possibility that a mild wave of one of the several strains of H5N1 could be circulating right now in the India, Pakistan, Nepal areas? I ask this because it seems like an awful lot of people are sick - including many health care workers, the CFR is apparently higher than is usual for dengue or chick (can’t spell that), a lot of sick people are testing negative for these diseases anyway, and no one seems to be testing for H5N1 even though BF has been found in these regions. By the accounts I’ve read, it seems like some of the doctors and health authorities over there are not entirely sure what they’re dealing with and even some press accounts are reporting it as a “mystery” virus - rather than dengue/chick/etc. I know that dengue, chick, and lots of other viruses are commonplace in these areas, but under the circumstances, wouldn’t it make sense to test any “mystery” virus just to rule out the possibility of it being H5N1?

heddiecalifornia – at 16:57

I have a question — If a regular seasonal flu shot is only good for six months or a year, if a pandemic arrives, and we get flu shots for avian flu, will be continue to need to get shots every six months or so (like boosters for kids for some of the other common illnesses vaccines) or will only one shot be enough? I am thinking that we could require shots every six months, and if the vaccine manufacturers take six months or more to make millions of ‘first injections’ , we will never have quite enough shots to go all around. Would we have to take the flu shots every year for the rest of our lives?

anonymous – at 17:08

If someone contracts avian flu and takes tamiflu and they survive, will they have just as much immunity (to the same avian virus) as a person who did not take tamiflu and survived?

MO Molly, I checked with my local authority on the subject AKA my DH. He said yes you have to add the stabil. He also said gas tends to start to break down after about a month, although it would still work, albiet not as well.

JR – at 11:23

Why didn’t HPAI make it into N. America as was predicted by the migration patterns? I thought we were expecting its arrival by way of birds migrating out of Siberia (where, if I remember correctly, BF was fairly endemic) sometime this fall. It seems so strange to me that the virus traveled so quickly throughout Asia, Africa, Middle East, Europe, etc., and then just seemed to stop.

That is a good question! Again not a dummy one at all, cos you know what? Even the experts don’t know why, they are still scratching their heads.

The whole idea of H5N1 being spread by migratory bird is to some people still not proven. I think there is reason to believe migratory birds are partly responsible. However, the issue is , what species? We know that migratory patterns are highly species specific.

As Taubenberger said in his Kinyuon lecture (which btw is absolutely worth watching, at least once, if you want to understand pandemic flu), there are 10010 species of birds, of which about 100 are known to be hosts to influenza A viruses. However, all the avian flu viruses that we have characterised ie studied, have come from only a handful of species. So we don’t know, for example, what is the true extent of H5N1 host range in birds.

Suppose H5N1 is in fact only able to infect a few species right now, and these don’t have migratory paths that touch N America, then you won’t get them in America. What is even more interesting is that it is not even in Australia, considering how close it is to Indonesia.

Albert Einstein, in his old age, when asked how come he was so smart, said “you know what? I kept asking all those childish questions that most people gave up on long ago.”

Ok, keep in mind that this is the place for dumb questions as you read this next one: Is there any possibility that a mild wave of one of the several strains of H5N1 could be circulating right now in the India, Pakistan, Nepal areas? I ask this because it seems like an awful lot of people are sick - including many health care workers, the CFR is apparently higher than is usual for dengue or chick (can’t spell that), a lot of sick people are testing negative for these diseases anyway, and no one seems to be testing for H5N1 even though BF has been found in these regions. By the accounts I’ve read, it seems like some of the doctors and health authorities over there are not entirely sure what they’re dealing with and even some press accounts are reporting it as a “mystery” virus - rather than dengue/chick/etc. I know that dengue, chick, and lots of other viruses are commonplace in these areas, but under the circumstances, wouldn’t it make sense to test any “mystery” virus just to rule out the possibility of it being H5N1?

This one needs only a short answer. Yes, its possible, but we don’t know. And I won’t characterize that as mild until its over. And yes, it would make sense to test it, but it is also easy to be armchair detectives with all hypothetical resources infinitely and instantaneously available!

heddiecalifornia – at 16:57

I have a question — If a regular seasonal flu shot is only good for six months or a year, if a pandemic arrives, and we get flu shots for avian flu, will be continue to need to get shots every six months or so (like boosters for kids for some of the other common illnesses vaccines) or will only one shot be enough? I am thinking that we could require shots every six months, and if the vaccine manufacturers take six months or more to make millions of ‘first injections’ , we will never have quite enough shots to go all around. Would we have to take the flu shots every year for the rest of our lives?

I’m not sure I understand the question but I will try to answer it anyway. Each flu vaccine contains the appropriate strains for that season, or at least what the scientists guess would be the right strains. The strains might have mutated by the time you contacted it, in which case you would still get the flu but it would be milder cos of partial immunity, ie the mutation from the vaccine strain is not expected to be huge, generally.

Generally, there is no need to get another shot in six months, cos the shot is still the same one, and even though the immunity may have worn off some, it is not completely gone. And the important point is this, seasonal flu is seasonal. So you take your flu shot at the beginning of the flu season, the rest of the year, you are at lower risk cos its not the flu season.

But if there is a pandemic, then there is a huge antigenic difference between the strains in the flu shot and the pandemic strain. So the seasonal flu shot will not be enough to protect you from the pandemic virus. Some would hypothesize a very mild protection from the N1 of H1N1, but we really don’t know.

No, no one has to take the flu shot for the rest of their lives, its their choice. :-) But it is important for elderly people to take it cos of their increased risk of complications.

nonymous – at 17:08

If someone contracts avian flu and takes tamiflu and they survive, will they have just as much immunity (to the same avian virus) as a person who did not take tamiflu and survived?

Yes

A similar question - does ‘pandemic’ refer to a large quantity of cases or a large quantity of severe cases? ie could there have been a pandemic (in the last 30 or so years) that went unoticed because the symptoms were so insignificant?

pandemic = an epidemic that affects the whole world

it doesn’t have to be severe, The 1968 flu pandemic was hardly more severe than the worst seasonal flu in terms of mortality, but it was a pandemic cos it was an epidemic of a new virus that spread all over the world,

could there have been a pandemic (in the last 30 or so years) that went unoticed because the symptoms were so insignificant?

No, from the characterisation of flu viruses, we pretty much know that the last one was 1968.

genetic characterisation

Thankyou!

What is the best anti-diarrhea Rx with BF?

MO Molly – at 10:02 I checked with my husband (we had an automotive shop for 25 years). If you have left the gas cap on securely and leave tank full and it is a newer vehicle ( 1990 & newer) your gas will be fine without any treatment; after 6 months use stabil.

you need to put the Stabil in the gas tank and you may need to get a solar panel to put on the dash board to keep the battery up (this will work if the cig lighter socket has power all the time, or you can put it on the battery with some long wire) you can get these from alot of sorces, ebay for one. they go for about $30 - 40 retail or $10 to 20 on ebay ( i have 3 that VW puts in there new cars from the factery that for some reason the dealers remove.) people will put these on tractors to keep the batterys up in barns that don’t have power when not in use for long term. also you may put some mouse poison in the engine compartment to keep the mice out and to keep them from damaging the wiring, etc.

Question: My kids, 12 & 15 have never had flu, nor have they ever gotten flu shots. Would they be more at risk getting H5N1? Or less able to fight it off?

Also: I filled my gas tank up in May and was still using that tank at the end of Sept. and it ran fine. shows you how much I drive. LOL

lohrewok – at 20:11 Question: My kids, 12 & 15 have never had flu, nor have they ever gotten flu shots. Would they be more at risk getting H5N1? Or less able to fight it off?

It’s hard to say whether they are more at risk because of this one factor alone, because H5N1 causes such a severe infection that we don’t know how much prior immunity to seasonal flu would make a difference. Read my 15:55 post on this thread for a discussion and some speculation about the role of the seasonal vaccine on H5N1 infection. You have to make up your own mind, but for me I am getting my kids to take the flu shot every year for a while till we figure out more solutions to the H5N1 problem.

Just as a suggestion to “my fellow dummies,” I follow anon, monotreme and tom dvm around this site daily and my knowledge base increases. I’m still not sure what I know but I know more than before I started visiting this site daily. Thanks so much, one and all.

Many thanks to Cottontop and anon_22 for ansering my questions.

Why did WHO come to the conclusion that the Ginting cluster in Indo last spring may have had a genetic componant. Secondly if we find that in fact there is either a genetic predisposition or immunity to H5 how would this impact a possible tx. Do we in fact posses the ability to use genetics to fight viral or bacterial infections or is this technology still way in the future.

Love this thread!

Anon 22 —

  Thank you for your answer, it clarifies the situation. 

What I was thinking was if the H5N1 strain remains seriously deadly, would a flu shot once a year be a good idea. I gather that it would be.

  And, again, if it hangs around in one form or another, through different vectors, and maintains that deadly combination, a person would want to get a flu vaccination every year, as supposedly the vaccine companies would be picking the appropriate strains expected that year, which may or may not be the h5n1 virus or its mutations. 
   Again, thank you — 

heddiecalifornia – at 00:32

The strains for the annual seasonal flu vaccine are not picked by the vaccine companies, but by the WHO based on their worldwide flu surveillance. They make the recommendations and the companies follow them. They have to, otherwise no government would buy them.

janetn – at 22:34 Why did WHO come to the conclusion that the Ginting cluster in Indo last spring may have had a genetic componant. Secondly if we find that in fact there is either a genetic predisposition or immunity to H5 how would this impact a possible tx. Do we in fact posses the ability to use genetics to fight viral or bacterial infections or is this technology still way in the future.

That particular cluster is unique in that despite 8 people being infected over several weeks, and the infected people slipping away from hospitals and hiding, and dead chickens etc, the only people actually infected were related to each other genetically. The people in the same family who had exactly the same exposure but were not genetically related, eg in-laws, none of them were infected. And no neighbours etc.

This possible genetic predisposition is comforting currently because it may explain the very high CFR, and it may explain why so few people are infected, and therefore one may infer that it is quite hard for H5N1 to jump the species barrier to any random person, only those with some genetic traits. Now this is all speculation, we really don’t know, and of course it is only comforting if you do not have those traits!

Currently we do not have the ability to use this information for treatment at all!

This possible genetic predispposition has to be overcome by the virus before it becomes pandemic. ie if a pandemic does happen from thie H5N1 strain, the genetic predisposition would disappear, and everyone would be susceptible.

Now I have a question, does anyone know whether marriage between blood relatives is common in Indonesia? I know that it is common in other places eg Pakistani communities in the UK/

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/4442010.stm

After Anons question is answered I have a dumb one too that id love to know the answer too.

Why do all flus originate from Asia or China proper?

Ima-prepper – at 03:46

Why do all flus originate from Asia or China proper?

Ha! Wouldn’t we like to know!

Not just Asia, but south China specifically.

It is so specific that I think there has to be a very distinct ecological reason, maybe a particular animal host that we don;t know about. But I must stress this really is just my own personal speculation. I haven’t found anything on it. I hope someone can tell me.

Why didn’t HPAI make it into N. America as was predicted by the migration patterns? It’s my opinion that it did. Possibilities:

~Frequency is very small and testing hasn’t revealed it, either because they didn’t grab the bird that has it, or because the testing isn’t always reliable.

~Testing has revealed it, but disclosure hasn’t happened.

~Some kind of human component to the mutation, maybe actually requiring a domestic chicken to transfer, and that hasn’t happened yet. The probability of that in Alaska is small because of few poultry farms and households with chickens. If it happens, it’ll be at Point MacKenzie Correctional Farm, the largest flock of chickens and turkeys in Alaska.

Just late-night thoughts to be taken or left.

Gasoline storage: Remote fuel storage and tank farms in northern regions typically get bulk fuel deliveries only a few times a year. This is the available fuel for a length of time. Gas and diesel stores pretty well with a few considerations - condensation and octane.

Condensation forms on the walls of any sized tank, causing water in the fuel. To avoid and correct, store tanks full, not partially empty. Isopropyl alcohol-based products to remove water are effective and used routinely in snowmachines and trucks in bush Alaska. You can see water in gas and diesel and you can pour it off in a bucket; even better, pour it through a chamois. Add that to your preps.

Stored fuel loses roughly one octane per month of storage. Nothing you can do about it. An ‘octane’ is part of the chemical makeup of carbon compounds in petroleum. If you bought a tank of gas and the pump said ‘minimum 87 Octane’, it works out that in 7 months, the gas is 80 octane and marginal. Engines like octane. A conventional car engine is designed to burn a particular minimum octane, so it doesn’t run well with less octane. Usually that’s when you hear little men with hammers…

There are expensive octane additives and octane “stabilizers”. Sometimes they work great, sometimes they cause other problems. Race cars, sports cars, etc., have a dedicated minimum octane that that engine requires. Same thing with snowmachines and motorcycles. So you don’t want to drive a high-performance car; you’ll want the old Corolla. Don’t use stored fuel in a Ducati.

Aviation gas is high octane. Leaded fuel is sometimes a higher octane; depending on what it is. Older vehicles like lead very much - it lubricates and engines run better. So get a chamois and some additives - for moisture and for octane preservation. [I’m not sure if we’re allowed to say brand names here.] Fill the container to the top to store. Find unoxygenated fuel if you can, but it’s not that big of a deal.

(Note to self; will Z my snowblower and lawn mower; they’d be better cared for, since I have more experience typing hunt-and-peck than minutes spent on small engine maintenance; how embarrassing Hm; finally a reason for highest-octance gas; keeps useful longer in storage?)

Whatever happened with the research that a Japanese man had initiated. Namely some people have a genetic predisposition. I have forgotten the exact reason, something like the virus needs to go deeper into the lungs to manifest itself, and these individuals have the genes that allow this to occur. I have always believed that there was a genetic predisposition, but this has been on instinct not on factual proofs.

Not only do flus originate in Asia and China, specifically, but so did chickens. Maybe that has something to do with it.

Ok, here’s my dumb question. How is it that low path H5N1 is showing up in many states where only a few hundred samples have even been tested, yet NONE has shown up in Alaska, where over 16,000 samples have been taken. Statistically, it doesn’t stack up.

diana – at 10:20

Whatever happened with the research that a Japanese man had initiated. Namely some people have a genetic predisposition. I have forgotten the exact reason, something like the virus needs to go deeper into the lungs to manifest itself, and these individuals have the genes that allow this to occur. I have always believed that there was a genetic predisposition, but this has been on instinct not on factual proofs.

I think you are referring to Kawaoka, who basically said that the reason why avian flu is difficult to spread human to human is because it attaches to receptors deep in the lungs preferentially. The abstract is here

This, however, only explains receptor binding, it doesn’t explain how come some people are more likely to get infected. In any case, transmissibility and pathogenisis depends on many more factors than receptor binding, including certain characteristics of the polymerase genes (of the virus)

I have a feeling this is going to be the most popular thread as we all have questions, and all feel like dummies in this particular issue. SO I am posting this here. I have no stock in CVS but I patronize the store. Today I got my Pneumonvax 23 shot there. They have an new service which they call the minute clinic. Only opened last week. Staffed by a Nurse Practitioner You can go to minuteclinic. com. or call 1 866 389 2727, to check this out further. I don’t know that every CVS has this service. A private room stocked with different vaccines from Hepatitis A and B to Polio. Flu and pneumonvax of course. I was in and out. It serves patients 18 and older for common illness and skin conditions and some testing procedures. Certainly no substitute for your own personal physician, but as an adjunct.It is open during weekdays from 8a.m to 8 p.m. and On Saturday till 4p.m….I hope this is not spam, but so many of you seem to have trouble getting pneumovax and have expressed frustration. Hope this helps those who have CVS in their neighborhoods.

I have had several bad genius spells these days, so please may I ask some dumb questions?

Several weeks ago I made the comment on one of the Indo threads that I was puzzled by the reporting of journalists mentioning whether the sick/dead chickens were “thoroughbred” or “ordinary”. We did not find a really satisfying answer.

There is a sizeable difference: the genetic makeup of thoroughbred chickens is necessarily narrower than that of ordinary chickens. What I understand is that they are now saying that previously it was the thoroughbred chickens that got ill, but now its _also_ the backyard ordinary chickens. Let me quote the piece of article on the Indonesian thread that made me say this (http://tinyurl.com/ydesh7): quote - pugmom – at 14:19 - Kalau originally often infects the thoroughbred chicken, now most only to the chicken not the race that was maintained behind the house that most also not terkandangkan - Unquote.

This reminded me of Karo and also the Turkey cluster. WHO which keeps saying there was somehow a genetic link in these families, and another report (can’t remember if it’s WHO, I think it is), that women get the illness more than men.

Also, today, in the news thread, DennisC – at 09:52 quotes an Indonesian article (http://tinyurl.com/y7v8u3) which says: Quote - “No husbands and wives are infected; it’s all brothers and sisters, mothers and children,” says Ginting. She and others believe there must be a genetic component to susceptibility to the disease. …… World Health Organization in which researchers said human-to-human transmission appears to be confined to genetically related people. People infected with the bird flu variant common in Indonesia seem to be able to infect only other people who carry the same genetic trait. In other words, birds give it to people, but people can give it only to blood relatives - Unquote

It makes me think: Karo, Turkey, human thoroughbreds. Female thoroughbreds.

So if the virus is going to evolve in humans as I understand it has in chickens (excerpt of article above), i.e. from thoroughbred to ordinary (non-pedigreed) chickens, the next human targets will be more genetically diverse, yes? If so, it means that the virus could evolve from thoroughbred humans (i.e. genetically connected, through either descending blood lines, or gender blood lines) to non-pedigreed humans (i.e. any ordinary human, male or female, without family blood links, and both genders).

Other question, do we know whether those chickens which died at the beginning of the bird epidemic in Indoneisa were first just thoroughbred hens and offsprings, or thoroughbred (fighting) cocks and offsprings? Probably not, but if anyone noticed, reading all these Indo articles?

Is this logic? If this is logic, are we witnessing the first baby steps of the virus to adapt to the whole chicken population, and, at the same time, to the whole human population without distinction to blood lines or gender?

Could H5N1 human and bird and beast varients be passed through the female line? Like some diseases of the blood?

From DennisC – at 09:52 on the news thread http://tinyurl.com/y7v8u3 - In Indonesia, virus spreads among blood relatives

“People in the West don’t always appreciate how horrible the H5N1 virus is, says Irna Safrina, head of central disease control for the Karo district of Sumatra. Bird flu is not an easy sickness or death. It starts with a high fever that keeps rising, immune to the effects of anti-fever medication, she says.”

“Next comes difficulty breathing. People usually succumb within two or three days. And even when they’re on ventilators to pump air into their lungs, patients remain aware of what’s happening. “They were all conscious until they died, in a lot of pain,” Ginting says.”

And we’re piling anti-fever medications which may be of use against ordinary flu, but evidently not against bird flu. So should we reopen a thread to think about other, alternative, natural, anti-fever medications, or have we already beaten the horse dead on that one?

I understand that many medications which can induce a state of unconsciousness or near-unconscious states are reputed also to depress the respiratory system, which is probably not a wanted effect, and I’m sure these Indonesian doctors must have tried their very best to offer relief.

In the West, do we have some other medicines better suited to such a situation that would make a patient comatose without compromising his lung function?

And if there is really no hope for the patient, is it necessary to have him/her endure such a painful death?

Should we discuss morphia and its derivates, scopolamine availability?

Should hospitals start thinking about this question, availability of such medicines, when to use, etc.?

Should we, as individuals on our own, start thinking what to do if our loved ones suffer in this way?

Didn’t DrDaves airplane companion open that door. Euthanasia?

Somehow I feel like Bluebeards last wife. Every door leads to another horror.

FrenchieGirl – at 12:51 Could it be that in the beginning of all this…that the thoroughbred fighting chickens were passing the flu via blood rather than through other means? Fighting chickens Spar with other fighters as part of their training. I’m sure they must have some injury even with out being in a full fledged Fight….A big thank you for all your posts, I admire the way you look at things and draw your own conclusions. You’re one smart cookie.

My question… How long after a person dies of flu in their home, say a neighbor, before it would be safe to go inside? I would hope that if I contracted the flu and died that someone could come in and get my preps without the risk of infection.

FrenchieGirl – at 12:51

Very interesting questions/speculations. And I use the last word not in a derogatory, but in a good way, speculation gives us new thinking/

I think the ‘no husband and wife infected’ thing illustrates what I said earlier about genetic predispostion. Whether the evolution in birds from thoroughbred to ordinary is accurate we do not know, but I don’t think that is necessary in chickens at all, cos you see all sorts of chickens infected in so many countries now.

But the question is still the same, is the virus likely to evolve from only infecting people with certain genetic traits to being able to infect everyone. I suspect the answer is yes, it being a flu virus, it is likely to go in that direction. How long that might take is anybody’s guess. But if the genetic component is stronger than we realized before, we may have a bit more time than we thought.

The next question is what might this genetic component be and how common is it? Since rare genetic traits (specifically recessive ones) tend to manifest more frequently in families with frequent inter-marriages, I decided to investigate that a little.

I spent some time today looking at the incidence of consanguineous marriages ie people marrying first cousins and other blood relations, cos that will concentrate some rare genetic traits. I was surprised to find that consanguineous marriages are very common in many countries, eg in Africa, south Asia etc.

Unfortunately there is not a lot of data on Indonesia, but Egypt for example, which has been having increasing cases, has an overall rate of 29%, with some areas up to 69% of all marriages being consanguineous! And that is not taking into consideration those just generally marrying people from the same village or tribe over many generations.

I don’t have a correlate between that and the human cases, cos I’ve only just started looking, but the rates in China varies tremendously between the majority Han tribe, where it is very low (close to the west) and the minority tribes. Data for the Lizu in Sichuan, for example, gives 58% for urban and 32% for rural areas, and Sichuan has had 3 out of the last 20 cases that I looked up in the WHO data.

I guess I haven’t answered any questions, just given everyone more to think about!

Now I’m just brainstorming, so please don’t flame me. And I’m likely to be wrong here. But here goes.

If the genetic component is a rare recessive trait that gets concentrated with repeated intermarriage, and if the vast majority of people in China (Han people constitute 92% of the population) and Europe rarely intermarry within a family, would that explain the supposedly low incidence in China and the absence of cases in Europe?

Very intriguing….

ON the news thread, there is a report that the Chinese have identified the NS1 gene as being responsible for making H5N1 so deadly. I thought that was someting that we’d known for a while (late 2004?). The news report also said, however, that now that they’ve identified the gene, a vaccine is on the way. Am I missingsomethig, or is the vaccine part just spin?

anon_22 – at 14:49 Now I’m just brainstorming, so please don’t flame me. And I’m likely to be wrong here. But here goes.

Strictly no flaming in Dummies corner :-)

watcher – at 14:56 ON the news thread, there is a report that the Chinese have identified the NS1 gene as being responsible for making H5N1 so deadly. I thought that was someting that we’d known for a while (late 2004?). The news report also said, however, that now that they’ve identified the gene, a vaccine is on the way. Am I missingsomethig, or is the vaccine part just spin?

To add to this, is the NS1 gene just responsible for the pathogenic properties in just chickens or in humans too?

It kinda irks me to keep hearing about the genetic predisposition of people to get H5N1. It is an accurate statement, but I think it gives the wrong impression.

Right now H5N1 still hasn’t obtained the capacity to become easily transmissable amongst people. We know that, and we also knwo why that it. It has to do with those 2,6 and 2,3 receptor preferences. Currently the virus still prefers one of them. Humans have both of them, but the ones that H5N1 really likes and is “best working with” are the ones in our lower lungs. -most of our lower lungs. Some people may genetically have a more frequent occurrence of these in their upper airways while most of us have fewer there. It is up there that the virus has to be replicating so that it can be coughed or sneezed out so that it can hopefully find a way into the next human victim that likewise has a higher than normal population of these specialized cells in their lungs too that can be infected.

A family lineage may have a physical set-up in their lungs that is most conducive to infection and passing on the virus to others of like make up. Genetics dictate how your cells are in your lungs, so technically this is a genetic predisposition to catching H5N1 right now.

BUT, even in these people, their cell make up in their lungs is still predominantly like that of other humans and currently contains mostly the cells the virus is not yet well adapted too. The problem with that is that each infection can potentially help the virus become better adapted to affecting the cells that are most common instead of just selecting the “bird-like” cells that also exist in the human lung. In fact, once this happens, and the virus learns to prefer the human cells more, the pandemic can start and these people that WERE in the “most in danger” group, will probably be the humans with the genetic predisposition to avoid the true pandemic when it comes… for the same reasons that right now they are catching it more. -their cell make up in their lungs is just a little different.

The “wrong impression” I refered to above was that “no need to worry about a pandemic, only certain, rare types of peopel can even get it anyway. -so I don’t ever have to worry that I will catch it.”

watcher – at 14:56

ON the news thread, there is a report that the Chinese have identified the NS1 gene as being responsible for making H5N1 so deadly. I thought that was someting that we’d known for a while (late 2004?). The news report also said, however, that now that they’ve identified the gene, a vaccine is on the way. Am I missingsomethig, or is the vaccine part just spin?

I only read the abstact, but this is about avian H5N1, ie how the NS1 gene might be responsible for virulence in chickens, and I assume the discussion of vaccine is also about avian vaccine. I can’t get access right now, but will in a few days. i will post again if there is anything more than this.

TreasureIslandGal,

Actually, you are absolutely right. But science includes calling a spade a spade. If there is an issue of genetic predisposition, we’ve still got to report it, and analyze its significance.

What conclusion you can draw depends on how you use the totality of all information, not just this one piece. In terms of risk assessment, personally, I have already factored this genetic predisposition into my own threat assessment a while back, so any change based on this is minor. The biggest thing that might (or might not) alter risk assessment this week is the new strain in China, IMHO.

Anon 22 Why has the new strain in China of concern to you please elaborate. Thank you so much for all the answers you have given here.

yeah anon_22, that is a bit disconcerting. Since that “new strain” has been there for quite a while now, and it was based on teh ctudy of that strain that I am sure the Chinese came out with the announcement that they felt there was a 20% possibility of the bird flu going pandemic THIS flu season. They have had time to study it.

janetn, did you see this new thread New Dominant H5N1 Strain In China?

anonymous – at 20:02

I don’t understand, where did you get that 20% possibility?

oops sorry… that was me.

I’ll try to find it again. It came out a month ago, maybe two. That, combined with Thailand securing vaccine for this season really perked me up.

it was either on a PPF thread or a China thread. it’s going to take me a while to find the news story again. it was originally posted on NewsNow out of China.

I may be a dummy but i think the “genetic” thing is BS. Cover.

I also know that the Fujian-Like strain was identified months ago and is old news. This strain did some mighty fine footwork evading the vaccine and then multiplying, taking over the turf. My bets are on a duke out between Qinghai and Fujian…. sound like an old king fu movie. The Qinghai Kid vs. the Fujian Tough Guy.

I would like to know where are all the sick people hiding now? Like… there are virtually no sick people with H5N1 anywhere… just lots of people getting sick with all sorts of “flu like” illnesses that aren’t BF.

Must just be me.

Can someone tell me the meaning of the dot with a slash under it, a dash beside it and )? Didn’t find it on forum shorthand. I see it used alot.

Goju, We don’t know where the sick are hiding, we don’t know if a lot of people got sick from this new strain. But even if there hasn’t been a lot of cases, it is still a bad development, cos that can change easily, since we see that the last few known cases are all from this strain.

Cottontop, just tilt your head to the left and an image will appear with a wink and a smile.

cottontop – at 22:08 Can someone tell me the meaning of the dot with a slash under it, a dash beside it and )? Didn’t find it on forum shorthand. I see it used alot.

;-) is a smile and a wink

Thanks. I was hoping it was a good thing! How do you acess it from the keyboard?

Semi colon, minus sign and a right bracket. ; - )

:-( frown :-o shock ‘Oh!’ There are more but I don’t know them. It was the fore runner of emoticons.

The eyes (wink ;) are just to the right of the letter “L”. The nose (-) is just to the right of the number “0″. The mouth is the number “0″ using the shift key.

ROTFLMAO Notice how much time we spend answering the ‘difficult’ questions.

crfullmoon – at 07:07 (Note to self; will Z my snowblower and lawn mower; they’d be better cared for…”

I’ll take ‘em. I had to fly 3,600 miles to get a weedwhacker running for a friend. :) I just need some ducttape, baling wire and a Leatherman.

Other useful factoids: no need for an expensive arsenal for protecting the ranch during a pandemic. Potato cannons will take out just about anything, they make a scary good loud noise and they’re fun! All you need is some ABS/PVC pipe and fittings, and plumbing cement. Science project for the kids…

For detonation, hairspray is awesome - big badda boom and cheap. A little dab’ll do ya. Better living through modern hair products.

The above was ‘Z’

Z, do you have a more detailed construction instruction. I’ve never heard of a potato cannon…do you put a baking potato in the tube…really?

Guess I missed that science class.

I’m gonna close and continue this thread here

I’ll copy these last few posts over to the new thread