Continued from here
EnoughAlready – at 12:00
DennisC – at 11:26 - I agree, and rightfully so. Additionally, I believe people will first swarm into areas that have potential resources. National Guard, large food banks, etc. If quarantines are established, it will be multifaceted… as seen on the TMC preparation guide. There will probably be an initial influx into cities. (I even see a more drastic “swarm” across the southern borders.) What follows, IMHO, will be as you describe. There will be an initial “rush” by some out of the cities, but it will take time for reality to sink in. Smaller population areas will most likely see very desperate people fleeing larger population areas. Honestly, I think that would happen between waves. But, what are we even talking about… it’s just the flu. And we are paranoid extremist with these Gone With The Wind and Grapes of Wrath exodus scenarios we are discussing. We are too technological for anything like that to happen “again.”
DennisC – at 12:04
Medical Maven – at 11:50 -“Home field” advantage
Yes, one of the more interesting comments I heard (feed store talk) is that some will just pull out the cattle guards. They have such guards even on the state highways around here and they are deep. They figure that will slow “them” down enough to shoot the tires and radiators. My plan is just to sit and watch. I just know that I would not want to get some of those “good old boys” mad at me. Some of them seem to even enjoy planning such things.
As a downtown resident, I know my local homeless by sight; the convenience stores or bus stops or drug store fronts they hang out near. I believe you are correct, EnoughAlready, and I believe I’ll print the post on skid-row staph and give copies to the shopkeepers in the affected areas. We had a big drug problem to begin with. Since Katrina we’ve had a VeryBigDrugProblem. This could be important. A sizeable contingency hangs out at the courthouse and library. I wouldn’t want to know the results of a bacteriological culture of handrails in the stairwells.
snip~
Nabarro said a critical time in determining whether the world has brought the spread of H5N1 virus under control will be end of 2006 and beginning of 2007.
haven’t you heard? this thing is almost under control (weird cackles are heard in the background)
DennisC – at 12:04
I guess good ol boys are the same everywhere. I have heard the “pull up the cattle guards” here,too.
A skip loader and a LOT Of fill dirt will accomplish the same thing.
At least that’s what our little neighborhood plans to do :-)
Checkpoint Charlie.
I can’t help but notice that wikians from large cities are rare — most posters here seem to be from less populated areas.
Any theories why that is?
;-) Because the people I know through the internet that live in large cities don’t come and post after I give them info about pandemic and Flu Wiki?? (sigh. Sure hope they’re trying to prep though.)
There are a lot of cityfolks here. But, I think us country yokels are perhaps more open to the idea of putting things by. As a young wife, I spent many hours every summer canning and freezing stuff. But then my husband was a logger, and winter meant no work, sometimes for many months. My stash, some game, and a good wood supply ensured that my little ones would be warm and fed. Not the case anymore, my baby is over 30 lol, and I used to go to grocers very frequently. I got out of the habit. If it wasn`t for this dratted pandemic lurking, I would be enjoying going back to my roots.
Ottawan – at 18:43
While of course there are exceptions, I think big city folks feel that technology can save the day. They live in a mostly artificial world of concrete, plastic, steel and glass, and the natural world does not intrude in upon them too terribly often. They also seem to expect the government to take care of problems. There is an attitude “What, me worry? That is what the government is supposed to do, take care of me.
Country folks are a bit more independent and tend to decide for themselves whether something is a danger or not, rather than waiting on someone to tell them. They are a bit closer to the charms and ravages of nature, and if they have raised livestock, they have likely had to deal with one disease or another. They know that things can go bad very quickly, whether we want them to or not. Ask a farmer with a bumber crop which has just been beaten into the ground by a hail storm whether things can go bad fast or not. Life ain’t fair. It is what it is, and we just have to deal with it. Hike up our britches, straighten our cap, and go back at it.
In short, city folk tend to ignore admonitions by the government, but still expect the government to fix problems when they occur. Country folk tend to listen to the governments admonitions, but don’t trust them to fix the problem or protect them, so they do what has to be done by themselves.
Now, since I’m one of the coutry folk, I’m probably a bit bias in my estimation of the why’s and wherefores.
One other thought. There has been a prevailing belief among country folk, at least here in Oklahoma, that sometime in a bad troubled future, hords of city folk would pour into the countryside looking for something to eat. This has been one of those feedstore or barbershop debates for years. News of a possible pandemic plays upon this fear. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita reinforced this fear. I think there are probably a lot of country folk that have prepped in quiet, hoping for the best, but prepared for the worst.
Okieman – at 22:53 Country folk
Oh no, I have been stereotyped….. But if “hordes of city folk would pour into the countryside looking for something to eat”, they better be wearing Kevlar before they climb the apple trees. People here would fight to keep their food for their family.
DennisC – at 23:03
I know that in this day and time there is a lot of gray area between big city folk and country folk. Don’t mean to stereotype everyone into one or the other.
Yea, if things get hard and dangerous, stealing little green apples might get someone worse than a tummy ache. Let us all hope that lead poisoning does not become common.
We need more city folks prepping. For everyones sake.
“City folk” are *not* prepping because they are being told *not* to - very explictly, very loudly and very often by people at the highest levels of authority and by all their local media. I am 100% sure that this is true in New York City. They are getting a completely different message than “country folk.” Why that is, I don’t know. If the people of New York City were getting the same message that the people of Fort Wayne were getting they would act. But they aren’t getting that message. Quite the contrary. Why that is, I’ll let others speculate.
Note, in Arkansas the CDC is advising people to stockpile food for 2 months of food. In NYC, people are being advised to store 3 days worth of food. Don’t blame the “city folk.” They are being deliberately fed misinformation.
Okieman – at 23:13 no problem here, just having fun with my Okie “neighbor”. :) and just for the record, I have neither gun nor apple tree.
I feel sorry for those in NYC, but I never understood why someone would choose to live there or remain in such cities- but to each his/her own. Last time I was there I could not even see a star on a clear night. I am afraid that most of the larger cities will not do well in a (>2–5%) pandemic. Even a moderate one would drastically change city life and possibly tilt the political power base (ever notice the most large cities are in “blue states”). I just don’t know what the answer is for large cities. If the virus can live a week on a surface, what do you think the subway system alone would be like? I can only pray for them and hope that they make preperations.
Monotreme – at 23:27 They are being deliberately fed misinformation.
I think that may be the difference. People around here (my local area) seek their own information and rebel at being “fed” information. As Okieman said “country folks” tend to be more independent. It is sad that many people in NYC listen to what is “fed to them” instead of being independent thinkers and seeking their own information. Some people will always believe the New York Times over a MD like Webster. Even here on FW I notice a trend (nothing exact) that many of the large city people tend to “believe” news sources by a journalists instead of the doctors, nurses, PhD’s and professionals here. Some equate a newpaper article from a journalist with an AA degree in English with the gospel and a statement by a PhD in biophysics or biochemist or an MD as a rumor.
I only hope that more and more people will wake up and become prepared.
DennisC – at 23:46
But country people are not being fed disinformation. They are being told to stockpile food for 2 months by public health authorities. There is story after story in their newspapers telling them to prepare. There are lists of what to buy in the grocery stores. Their local governments are making very serious plans for a severe pandemic. This is happening at every level in some states.
I repeat, if New Yorkers were given the same message that “country people” are being given, they would act appropriately. They aren’t stupid.
Monotreme – at 23:56
My only information sources are electronic. I would think that everyone would have access to those sources. We are not being “told” anything nor are there lists in stores. We have no newspapers here (can you imagine a news paper boy riding 5 miles on a gravel road to deliver one paper?) It sounds like the problem is with the NYC newspapers and their politicians. But that is just from a nearsighted guy in a forest viewing from a great distance in both miles and culture. It seems like even people in NYC could have access to the same information that we have here “out in the sticks” if they wanted to.
Can anyone point to an offcial government website that is advocating prepping for two months? Can you then point to a NYC website suggesting preping for three days?
This “information assymetry”, if it is real, is frightening in its implications.
DennisC – at 23:31
They’ll get to see the stars when the grid goes down.
Arkansas ‘ plan (p76) assumes 6 to 8 months before vaccines
(“ Moreover, it is possible that no vaccine will be available “)
No times given? But lots of good info: pdf, Food and Water storage suggestions
some of their website links only say “Information coming soon.” But, they have all the fed.stuff. (“What is Arkansas doing? Information coming soon” )
(Don’t have time to look through all NY’s plan, but I now see some more mass fatality plan stuff there that will be problems; bodies dead of contagious disease can only be disposed of by “licensed” funeral director, ect? To find out how many extra supplies they may need, use the old CDC Flu-with itty-bitty mortality-rate models? )
NY website; “Keep a supply of non-perishable food and other essential household items on hand so you can minimize trips to stores and other crowded places in the event of a pandemic.”
Monotreme and DennisC,
I think politicians and bureaucrats in the more rural states, ie-states with significantly more rural areas than urban, still have ties with their country kin. In other words, they visited their grandparents in the country growing up, they have uncles or cousins still in the country, or they grew up in the country before moving into the city to work. For this reason, they still have a connection with a shred of the independent and self sufficient country attitudes that remain even into this day. When these politicians and bureaucrats start looking into what needs to be done and realize it could be incredibly bad and their state and cities will be on their own (as per the federal governments admonition), they start going back to their roots and looking at self sufficient approaches to the problem.
If a big city politician or bureaucrat has grown up in the city, their grandparents grew up in the city and all their friends/family grew up in the city, they have a tendency to think that the city will provide for their needs, just like it has always done. They do not advocate individuals and families stocking up on food because it is just too far removed from their experience or their families experience. They think the city can get what it needs and provide it to the people. It is ignorance and hubris. Ignorance of the “powers that be” in the big cities and heavily populated states. (I have always found it interesting that big city folk look upon their country cousins as being ignorant, when in fact it is probably more the other way around in this day and time. But again, I’m a bit biased;-)
Country folk are not too far removed from the time when they and theirs had to provide for their own needs. They know that food does not come from the grocery store, it comes from a farm. Water does not come from a faucet, it comes from a well, lake or stream. Electricity does not come from a socket in the wall, it comes from a generating plant in the country.
What is at work here is not purposeful misguidance of the masses, but rather ignorance and hubris of the governmental leaders of the big cities.
The “Twin Towers” of hubris, the downplaying of panflu. And the shock and horror of the people in the streets of all of the megacities will be every bit as pronounced as on that day in September in New York.
MM, isn`t that a big part of the denial? 9–11 was horrid. I remember being glued to my tv for days. But, as shocked as New Yorkers were that day, the city was really mainly untouched, and returned to normal fairly rapidly. Aren`t the average city dwellers thinking the same way if PF occurs? It would be bad for a day or two, then it would business as normal.We know better, of course.
cactus at 10:26-And in regards to terrorism they are mostly in denial about living with a “bullseye” on their backs. As I have elaborated before in more detail, it was only recently that the “equation” changed for living in the city.
This is what I found at New York State’s Health Department:(accompanied by a huge cartoon of a chicken). MM is right - this is so bogus!!!
Bird Flu and You Get the Facts! H5N1 Avian Influenza Get the Facts! Many birds around the world are getting sick from H5N1 avian influenza. This is known as “bird flu.” Experts think the bird flu will come to the United States, maybe even this year. It is not here now. If it does arrive here, you should know: Bird flu is not the same thing as “pandemic flu.” • Pandemic flu would make lots of people sick all over the world. • It would spread easily from one person to another. • Bird flu does not do that. • Bird flu would have to change form to become pandemic flu. We don’t know if this will ever happen. Bird flu is hard for people to catch. • Most people who became sick with bird flu came into contact with sick chickens or ducks and touched them with bare hands. • You could also get bird flu by touching things that had droppings from sick or dead birds on them. • Meat that has been cooked all the way through cannot give you bird flu. Even though bird flu isn’t here right now, you should never touch wild birds with your BARE HANDS. • Birds can carry many kinds of germs that can make us sick. • A bird could look fine and still be sick. • If you MUST handle a sick or dead bird, wear gloves and wash your hands afterwards. To learn more about bird flu, visit www.nyhealth.gov 7084 04/06
And this from Plan to Prepare:
Food for Thought In case of an emergency, you should have a three to seven day supply of food on hand for each member of the family, but what kinds of food are best and how can you be sure they will be safe to eat when you need them? Use the tips below to help you plan.
Tailor your supply of food to the type of things your family normally eats. Familiar food can lift morale and give a feeling fo security in times of stress. Consider whether there is anyone in your family with special diets or allergies that you will need to accommmodate. Buy foods that need no refrigeration and little or no preparation or cooking. Build your reserves by buying a few extra items a week until you have a supply large enough to feed your family for three to seven days. Have extra fuel/charcoal on hand if you own a grill or camp stove. Never use a grill or camp stove inside the house because dangerous carbon monoxide fumes could build up and cause illness or even death. Keep an appliance thermometer in you refrigerator and freezer at all times. This will eliminate guess work about how cold the unit is and tell you if the food is safe to eat. The refrigeratior should be set at 40 degrees or less and the freezer at 0 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit. Keep your freezer as full as possible. A full freezeer will keep food cold longer and also is more energy efficient. If you fear a power outage is likely, turn your refrigerator and freezer to their coldest setting. If the electricity goes off, this will extend the length of time the food will keep without spoiing. Buy freeze-pack inserts or fill plastic jugs with water and keep them frozen. Put them in the refrigerator as soon as possible after the power goes off. Know where dry an block ice can be purchased. Helpful Hints Keep canned food in a dry area where the temperature is fairly cool - between 32 and 70 degrees Fahrenheit. To protect foods from pests and extend their shelf life, store them in tightly closed cans or metal containers. Do not store your reserve food supply in the basement if it is prone to flooding. Rotate your reserve food supply. Try to use food by the “best if consumed by” date. If foods don’t have a “best if consumed by” date, then mark (in ink) the date you purchased the item. Place new items at the back of the storage area and older ones in front. Inspect your reserves periodically to make sure thare are no broken eseals or dented containers. Keep on Top of Things! You’ll need to be aware of what is happening in an emergency.
Listen to the radio for information updates. If the electricity is off and you do not have a battery-powered radio, use your car radio. But never run your car for an extended period of time in an open or closed garage! Start thinking about what you would need to do if you had to leave your house: It’s a good idea to have the bulk of your family’s disaster supplies packed in an easy-to-carry container and ready to go quickly. Be sure to bring cash, as well as your ATM or credit card, change for the pay phone, telephone numbers of family and friends, an extra set of car and house keys, your driver license or other photo ID, and valuable personal papers that cannot be easily replaced. Stockpiled Supplies Available in Health Emergencies Did you ever wonder what would happen if an exotic illness like SARS or a new strain of fllu arrived unexpectedly in New York and started making hundreds of people sick? New York officials, along with their federal and local counterparts, have been working together to be ready to provide mass immunizations or mass medications, should it ever become necessary.
At the Governor’s request, the federal Stategic Nation Stockpile (SNS) could arrive in New York Sate within 12 hours. The SNS is a national repository of antibiotics, chemnical antidotes, anittoxins, life-support medication, IV administration, airway maintenance supplies, and medical/surical itmes. It is designed to suppplement and re-supply state and local public health apgencies in the event of a serious public health threat.
Every county in New York State has identified various places where antibiotics, vaccines and other medical supplies could be quickly distributed, if needed, to help prevent illness. In an emergency, these sites would be announced on radio and TV.
If you are directed to go to a public health emergency medication pick up site, you should have the following with you:
photo identification Your address and emergency contact phone number Names and ages of all household members Weights of all persons in your household under 100 pounds Medical allergies of all persons Know medical conditions, including Liver problems Kidney problems Epilepsy Heart Conditon Immuno-compromised Skin conditon Pregnancy or breastfeeding Write down this information now, and update it often, so you will have it if needed.
This is the first mention I’ve seen of the Strategic National Stockpile.
Bluebonnet – at 15:55
As I was reading the second portion of the material you posted, it surprised me the number of typos that were present. Here on the fluwiki forum we have typos all the time because we don’t take the time to look up the correct spelling, or we type so fast we miss a lick and don’t proof read before posting. But in a governmental document of this type,…amazing.
Anyway, I have thunk ;-) some more on this topic concerning big cities and the lack of practical information. I think that in addition to ignorance and hubris there is the issue of telling several million people to stock up on +2 weeks worth of food, when there is a substantial portion that has no way of affording it. The ugly issue of “haves” versus “have nots” raises its head and the bureaucrats and politicians back away in horror. If the poorer folks were really told what could occur they would demand the city provide emergency food for them, and there is no way the city is able to do so. Most of the people would probably just eat it up as soon as they got it, and the city would be back in the same bad position they originally found themselves. So…they are probably looking at ways to provide during the emergency. This is probably where more ignorance and hubris kicks in. In a severe pandemic this will be nigh-on impossible. So the leaders are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
City folks reading this and able to afford it…stock up. Begin prepping. If nothing happens, then give it to the homeless and hungry later.
It is almost as if “they” are setting up the cities for “The Final Solution”.
The NYC stuff quoted here looks like it was meant for children. Are people really are so dumb that they don’t know not to use a camping stove indoors or run a car in an enclosed garage? If so, I’m afraid that an unintended consequence of a pandemic is going to be a cleaning out of the shallow end of the gene pool.
As I’ve also said, I’m concerned that any distribution of available government aid is going to be determined by political analysis. In the case of New York, I would have to rate the place unsaveable except with extremely good leadeship, an extremely good plan and very, very, tight discipline, the latter perhaps being the most important.
It is conceivable to organise and distribute aid and supplies along civil defence lines (a “Blockfuhrer” in each block, a leader and committee in each apartment block, floor wardens, deputies, commitees, etc. etc., but this requires discipline, courage and a lot of hard work. Would New Yorkers be up to it?
P.S. On the subject of cremation of the dead which was mentioned elsewhere, forget it! There simply isn’t enough firewood available - you need about 400 pounds to do it properly as I’ve read somewhere else. Crematoriums use gas and electricity as well, both of which are in short supply.
My understanding at least of Australian pandemic plans, is that nurses wil be able to sign flu related death certificates and mass graves will be provided, in public parks if necessary, that can later be provided with appropriate monuments.
Okieman,
It is certainly true that people in rural areas are more familiar with the idea of “stocking up” for emergencies than city people are. In the Midwest, anyone who grew up on a farm or has relatives who did, knows about “putting food up for the winter”.
However, my point is about information, not how the information is being used. If the city people were given the same information as the country people, their response might not be to stock up, but rather to leave. This would be especially true of better educated professionals who typically have more options. Even with all the resources in the world and excellent planning, NYC would be hell during a severe pandemic. If a New Yorker with options really thought this was likely, he’d probably move somewhere else.
I don’t buy the argument that some sort of mental block is preventing public health professionals from recognizing that NYC’s pandemic plan is a sham. They are choosing not to speak up. They are choosing not to warn people. Why?
Walrus – at 19:33 about the unthinkable-
If you are out of body bags or if embalming/cremation is not available, you can wrap the body in cotton sheets and spray with bleach diluted to 1:10 then wrap in plastic sheeting and attach identification. At one time FW had some info about such things but I cannot find it right now. The file I had for that was burials.pdf but I am not finding the origianl lind right now.
Monotreme – at 23:30
I don’t think that there is a lack of information in NYC. They can access the same info as you, I, or any fluwikian can. The problem is the misinformation (dare I say lies of omission) that people at the Times and other NYC MSM feed them. From way out here in the middle of no place, it seems that NYC dwellers think that their city papers are some how better just because they are a big city.
DennisC,
The problem for the New Yorkers is that they trust Health Commissioner and they trust their local media. Their health commissioner tells the heads of other agencies that a pandemic will not happen. The result is that the heads of those agencies don’t tell their employees to do any planning. No supplies are purchased. No drills are conducted. If any worker-bee asks, they are told there is nothing to worry about. This is very different than in other areas of the country. Some public health authorities are telling the essential workers to begin planning immediately. Supplies are being purchased, HCWs are being fit-tested for N-95′s, and additional employees are being hired specifically to dealt with a pandemic,etc.
In addition, the NYC media seems dedicated towards blocking any negative news about a pandemic. The stories that appear in some markets do *not* appear in NYC. Sounds strange, but I know this for a fact. Any stories that do appear are spun to make prepping look foolish. btw, most New Yorkers do not read the NY Times or the WSJ (which used to have pretty good coverage). They read the NY Daily News or the NY Post.
If your local public health authority tells you a pandemic is nothing to worry about and the local media tells you that only flakes prep, why would you look for other sources of info?
The cities that are seriously prepping are giving their citizens completely different information than New Yorkers are being given. Why?
I wonder if NYC leaders realize the danger, but deem it impossible to prepare enough to make a difference.
As Okieman stated its more about the haves and the have nots. Think about it if they came out and said we need you to stock enough food for 8 weeks, what would the outcry from the poor be? They would demand that the government provide the recomended amt. of food. Enough accusations floated around after Katrina. How often did we hear that the government had made no provisions for the poor who couldnt evacuate. I think Okieman has hit the nail on the head. New Yorkers are not known for being terrible shy or demure. They would howl like a stepped on cat. TPTB dont want that especially in an election year
Jumping Jack Flash and janetn,
Deliberately distorting information that is presented to the public would make TPTB and the local media morally cupable for every death in NYC during a severe pandemic. It is not for them to decide what people should or should not know. If presented the facts regarding the consequences of a severe pandemic, many people would ignore the message, just like everywhere else. However, some would take appropriate action. For some, that would mean moving from NYC. We cannot save everyone, but we should save those we can.
Deliberately writing off the people of NYC, and not telling them that you have done so, is a crime against humanity. If I search history for a parallel, I find myself in a very dark place.
History will be written by the survivors - hopefully not the ones hiding under Mt Weather…
Would City Triage include forcibly evacuating essential workers from B-cities to A-cities?
To prevent flu spread, you would have to quarantine them somewhere for two weeks.
A = a city that can be saved, B = a city that cannot be saved, C = unsure
From what I’ve discerned, Gunnison, CO was one of the only towns, if not the only town, that went unscathed in 1918. Reason being TPTB at that time had the vision and fortitude to implement quarantine. No quarantine = implosion in this technology dependent JIT society.
Do you really think there are any “A” cities?