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Forum: H 5 N1-Threat Level

03 September 2006

cmo111 – at 15:51

Just looking at Google news - there seems to be a decline in H5N1 human cases - the Indonesian clusters do not seem to have come to much - are we seeing the natural decline of H5N1?

A former Lurker – at 16:09

Or are we finally seeing our “Summer Lull” ?

 Calm before the Storm
anon_22 – at 16:26

‘Clusters’, as the name suggest, tend to cluster. If there were a continuous stream of cases, they would not be clusters.

It does seem to be better, or it may be too soon to tell.

Okieman – at 17:18

If you look closely at the news articles coming out of Indonesia they are indicating an elevated level of concern due to September being their rainy (and flu) season. Let’s see what the situation looks like after September or October.

Dark Horse – at 18:02

“there seems to be a decline in H5N1 human cases - the Indonesian clusters do not seem to have come to much - are we seeing the natural decline of H5N1?”

It was quiet in Indonesia just before the Karo cluster. It would be wonderful if H5N1 was fizzling, but with its geographic and host range triumph, I rather doubt it. It’s hard to tell just what we’re seeing in Indonesia because of the Tamiflu. If you look at the early Garut cluster before the free dispensing of Tamiflu you see something very nasty. Then with the Tamiflu, everything appeared to change. Has Tamiflu conquered the beast for the moment? Is Indonesia involved in some strange dance as a prelude to World Bank funding? What about the 17 or so cases that are still unclear? For those many who were testing negative, what was making them sick in the first place?

As I look at Indonesia I am reminded of Jack Nicholson’s classic movie “Chinatown.” “You never really know what’s going on in Chinatown.”

RobTat 22:59

Quite a while ago in another thread there was the analogy of a pandemic breaking out like it was a pot boiling. First a few small, individual bubbles (read cases); then awhile goes by and when you look again there are a few groups of small bubbles (read clusters); and after another while, the bubbles get bigger and faster; and at some point it breaks into a roiling boil (read pandemic).

This virus will not listen to our prognostications/predictions/ or hopeful prayers, and it won’t march to the drumbeat of our timetable. It is doing it’s own thing, and we (as a species) are a potential host, and we are not doing anything like enough to stop it’s march. If it is possible to intervene at all. Dunno.

That is the reality. For me, it’s like watching a train wreck in slow motion.

blackbird – at 23:04

I have no problem with having more time to prepare (if there turns out to be more time — Indonesia isn’t the only place in the world threatened with BF. And some of those places aren’t reporting much if anything).

Ruth – at 23:16

I worry about what is happening in Africa. We heard about a few cases and that’s it. I agree, it seems like we are watching a pot boiling. It seems that things slow down in Indonesia and then it picks up again. Something tells me not to take this too lightly. Again most of the world’s scientists are really worried about bird flu. I’m not sure if it’s scientic evidence or their gut telling them something’s not right.

04 September 2006

blackbird – at 02:34

Yes, I agree Ruth. Africa is one of the places where it’s unclear what’s going on. Same is true in other places as well.

anonymous – at 02:43

RobT,Ruth, where did you find this pot-boiling analogy ? I can see no reason to assume this. Seems more as if someone someone liked the wording and the analogy itself as if there were any evidence that H5N1 really would behave this way. It could be. But our experience with previous pandemics is different.

AnnieBat 05:09

Dark Horse at 18:02 “Has Tamiflu conquered the beast for the moment?”

We need to remember (I would love to be corrected if I am wrong) that Tamiflu ‘lessens’ the intensity of the symptoms but does not kill the virus outright - it interferes with its ability to replicate rapidly in the host. This lack of rapid replication would perhaps lower the H2H infection possibilities - less virus produced to pass on to someone else but it is not gone gone.

anonymous – at 05:46

as I understood, Tamiflu given prophylactically (75mg daily) would in general prevent an infection.

Commonground – at 06:04

I hope this is not the reason the news has dried up in the past few days. I posted this in the Sept. 3 News Thread:

News written by editorial staff on Saturday, on September 02 2006: (excerpt) for the last two months in 2006 the price of the sweet Siammadu citrus fruit commodity from the Karo Regency the plateau of the Line’s Hill, plummeted the alias fell the price. The decline in the price of the citrus fruit for the last two month was the extraordinary incident. The writer felt sad, with the price fall at this time because only was discussed in the level of the cafe, did not spread took the form of the seminar in hotels, rarely was contained in the newspaper. Was different to rumours of busy bird flu was discussed in the print media. This article was made for the aim of depicting the phenomenon that was experienced by the farmer, try to give the fall way out of the price of the citrus fruit. http://tinyurl.com/nwt43

Ruth – at 08:30

anonymous at 2:43 You have a point. I think the boiling thing comes from Barry’s book, The Great Influenza. Someone correct me if I’m wrong. Of course every pandemic is different or could be we really don’t know because we’ve never watched it unfold on a daily basis as we are now. I suppose, we could wake up one day and find sick people all over the world. Or just small clusters in one area for a while. The whole thing scares me.

ColdClimatePrepperat 09:05

Yes, the boiling analogy comes from Barry’s book, and refers to the manner in which the Spanish flu appeared, at first in a few areas, seemed to go away for blocks of time, more simmering, then finally came out full force and was quickly found all over the globe. The first wave was very infectious but not very lethal. The second wave (separeted by some months I think I remember, from the first wave) was both very infectious and had a high mortality. Again it swept the globe in a matter of weeks/months and was unstoppable.

Barry’s book is extremely interesting, well researched, detailed and I do think sheds a lot of light on the nature of pandemic influenza. After reading people referring to it here on the Wiki for weeks, I finally gave in a bought it. It was worth the money and the time needed to read it.

Ruth – at 10:59

I agree. Great Book. It helped me understand what we may be up against. Anyone who has concerns about avian flu should read it.

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:32

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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