This is from: http://www.mb.com.ph/MAIN2006110779051.html (I find this most disturbing)
US citizens in HK told to stockpile for bird flu outbreak spacer
Hong Kong (dpa) - US citizens in Hong Kong have been advised to build a three-month stockpile of food, medicine and water in their homes in case of a bird flu pandemic, a news report said Tuesday.
An advisory has been sent out to all 60,000 registered US citizens in the former British colony urging them to prepare the stockpiles ahead of the coming winter flu season.
It suggests stockpiling 4.5 litres of water per person per day and to prepare water purification equipment in case of complete infrastructure breakdown, the South China Morning Post reported.
The advisory also suggests they stock up on non-perishable foods, soap, alcohol-based hand wash, medicines, vitamins, flashlights and a portable radio, the newspaper said.
Six people died and 12 others were infected in the first modern outbreak of bird flu to jump the species barrier and attack humans in Hong Kong in 1997.
Since then, however, the city of 6.8 million has built up sophisticated safeguards against the virus and avoided further human cases despite a spate of regional outbreaks.
Hong Kong has carried out mass culls of birds and ducks when cases have been detected among poultry and birds imported from mainland China are screened for the virus.
Scientists believe bird flu may cause deaths on a global scale greater than the Spanish Flu of 1918 which killed up to 40 million if the virus mutates to jump from human to human. Printer Friendly Version
I wonder why people in this country arent being told at least 3 months,right now?
Who sent the advisory? The article does not say.
I wish I knew. The original article in the South China paper may have said - I think it’s subscription, though.
Treyfish - I wonder why people in this country haven’t been being told to stock up for three months - and certainly in light of this, I wonder why no one is screaming it at us from the rooftops.
The advisory was sent by the State Department.
I guess it makes sense in that they are at one of the possible epic-centers of a pandemic, so there will be no lead time nor warning.
FYI, I’m in HK, and the local government has not told the public to do anything. I talk to people and they are just as indifferent as anywhere else. It’s very frustrating.
The state department.I posted this earlier in the news and there are some reports there.
anon-22 - do you know when this advisory was sent from State Dept., and if it was sent anywhere else?
It may make sense, but it also makes for an eye-opener, I’d think.
Weellll ,how do they inform 60,000 americans there?Telephone?Letter?Email?Would you get one?
MY eyes ARE open!
and we get no lead time?it doesnt take that long by plan to get here does it?The whole world is in a pandemic zone.
Nightowl’s link tells you everything.
Treyfish – at 00:20 and we get no lead time?it doesnt take that long by plan to get here does it?The whole world is in a pandemic zone.
Sorry, I’m sitting here and it looks to me like anything that happens here you guys have a lot more lead time than here. Its 6+ million people on a bit of rock, you know.
My opinion? Don’t read too much into it. It was probably written a while ago, gradually polished till it’s ready to go, and sent out now. That’s what the State Department is supposed to do.
just my 2C…
Its breaking news on the bankok post so i guess america will hear of it soon and see that they should have 3 months at least.Not 2 weeks.
http://travel.state.gov/travel/tips/health/health_1181.html posted by Bluesky on p4p
I checked out the State Department travel site. THey do have a warning page on H5N1 (along with other hazards http://travel.state.gov/travel/tips/health/health_1185.html )
A couple of interesting quotes.
The vast majority of the reported human cases have resulted from direct contact with H5N1-infected poultry. Although there is evidence to suggest very limited, human-to-human transmission in family groups involving close exposure to a critically ill member, there is no evidence that the virus can be easily or sustainably transmitted from human-to-human. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(DHHS/CDC), the WHO, and the Department of State are nonetheless concerned about the potential for the virus to adapt or mutate into a strain that can be easily transmitted in a sustained manner among humans, a characteristic that could result in a human influenza pandemic, and are working closely with other partners to prepare for the possibility of pandemic influenza.
U.S. embassies and consulates do not have supplies of this drug for use by private American citizens abroad. The Department of State has pre-positioned supplies of the drug Tamiflu at its embassies and consulates worldwide, for eligible U.S. Government employees and their families serving abroad. Americans should also be aware of the potential health risk posed by counterfeit drugs, including those represented as Tamiflu, by scam artists who sell products on the internet or in countries with lax regulations governing the production and distribution of pharmaceuticals.
In addition, the Department of State has asked its embassies and consulates to consider preparedness measures that take into consideration the fact that travel into or out of a country may not be possible, safe, or medically advisable during a pandemic. Guidance on how private citizens can prepare to shelter in place, including stocking food, water, and medical supplies, is available at the www.pandemicflu.gov website. Embassy stocks cannot be made available to private American citizens abroad and we encourage people living in an area with outbreaks of H5N1 to prepare appropriately.
It is also likely that governments will respond to a pandemic by imposing public health measures that restrict domestic and international movement, further limiting the U.S. government’s ability to assist Americans in these countries. These measures can be implemented very quickly. Areas of known H5N1 outbreaks in poultry have been quarantined by governments within 24 hours, restricting (if not preventing) movement into and out of the affected area.
I can’t help but wonder if things are worse in China than we’ve been led to believe.
WHOA !!! My PPF just went to a NINE ! I’m off to see if I can reach my nephew in Indonesia….he’s been “out” in the field for the last month,…but maybe he’s back now.
People, calm down. :-)
I’m going to quote that piece one more time. It is not specific to Hong Kong. It is a State Department advisory, sent to all embassies in all countries as part of the whole pandemic preparedness for US staff overseas.
“US citizens in Hong Kong have been warned to build an emergency three-month stockpile of food, water and medicine as part of a survival plan in case of a bird flu pandemic.
(It is written like this cos it’s a piece from the newspaper in Hong Kong. If this was a UK newspaper, then you would read US citizens in the UK…., and it doesn’t mean that a pandemic is going to break out in the UK)
The US State Department sent an advisory warning diplomatic and consular posts around the world about the impending flu season.
Last week, a team of Hong Kong and US scientists released a report which claimed they had found a new strain of the bird flu virus H5N1 in the area, a claim Beijing disputes.
The communiqué “Pandemic influenza: preparing for possible shelter-in-place”, called on government employees and other US citizens to store non-perishable foods and 4.5 litres of water per person per day. The advisory also said that in the event of “complete infrastructure breakdown” water might need to be purified, and gives instructions on purification, including using Clorox bleach - which it said “isn’t just a laundry aid, it’s a lifesaver”.
It is a State Department advisory, sent to all embassies in all countries as part of the whole pandemic preparedness for US staff overseas.
There’s no sign of it on Jakarta or Saraybaya sites—Embassy or Consulate s’. My nephew is high up at the Consulate in Saraybaya…I’m trying to reach him to see if he has this alert also. But he may still be out of the office.
But people are right---it would be nice if people stateside were being told 3 months vs 2 weeks ! There’s alot of difference there !
Madamspinner – at 03:31
There’s no sign of it on Jakarta or Saraybaya sites
Maybe you can email them and ask? Cos the only piece we have is this one piece of news, but on this newspiece it does say around the world.
That’s what I’ve done. That nephew of mine is the person to ask. He’s no flunkie. It’s strange that this was supposed to be distributed all over; but yet there’s no sign of it in the worse hit country. I could call him directly but my hard line is not encrypted like his. I may not be able to get any info right away.
anon_22 – at 03:23 People, calm down.
I am calm, as plenty of others here no doubt are. However, the action taken and the language used bears noting. Three months’ worth of supplies? Total infrastructure collapse? Uh, when was the last time you heard any U.S. department speak in those terms? Never.
The US State Department sent an advisory warning diplomatic and consular posts around the world about the impending flu season.
Source, please? I must have missed this. Thanks.
That is part of the news article from South China Morning Post, which was where the story came from, and which was posted on the news thread at 22:42 yesterday.
The link from Raw Story credits dba as the German press agency Deutsche Presse-Agentur GmbH.
Nightowl’s post at 00:20 points to this link http://hongkong.usconsulate.gov/ci_avian_2006110301.html
American Citizens Services Newsletter
Pandemic Influenza — Preparing for Possible Shelter-In-Place U.S. Consulate General for Hong Kong and Macau
November 3, 2006
The U.S. Department of State recently sent a cable to all diplomatic and consular posts entitled “Pandemic Influenza: Preparing for Possible Shelter-In-Place”. The cable’s main intent was to provide guidance to all staff regarding “shelter-in-place”. That is, in the event of severe pandemic influenza with high morbidity, the public may be advised to self-quarantine. Therefore, current guidance notes that families should be prepared to “shelter-in-place” for up to twelve weeks, and maintain sufficient food and water supplies to accommodate that entire period.
Just as in the United States, U.S. government employees and their families overseas have primary responsibility for maintaining adequate supplies of food to shelter-in-place. This also applies to private U.S. citizens. For the long term, families are advised to store foods that are non-perishable, do not require refrigeration, or preparation (including the use of water), or cooking. The cable also advises that families should store one gallon of water per person per day.
Potable Water
Please note that at this time, Hong Kong’s water supply is potable. In the event of complete infrastructure breakdown, water supply that is currently potable in some areas or countries may not remain so. However, water can be purified in several ways. Boiling is a reliable method for killing microbes and parasites. Bring water to a rolling boil and continue boiling for at least ten minutes. Also, regular Clorox Bleach isn’t just a laundry-aid, it’s a lifesaver (use only regular Clorox bleach, not Fresh Scent or Lemon Fresh). In an emergency, one gallon of Regular Clorox Bleach purifies 3,800 gallons of drinking water. First, let water stand until particles settle. Filter the particles if necessary with layers of cloth, coffee filters, or fine paper towels. Pour the clear water into an uncontaminated container and add Regular Clorox Bleach per the below indicated ratio, mix well, and wait 30 minutes. Water should have a slight bleach odor.
Ratio of Clorox Bleach to Water for Purification:
2 drops of Regular Clorox Bleach per quart of water 8 drops of Regular Clorox Bleach per gallon of water 1/2 teaspoon Regular Clorox Bleach per five gallons of water If water is cloudy, double the recommended dosages of Clorox Bleach.
To insure that Clorox Bleach is at its full strength, rotate or replace your storage bottle every three months. Also, don’t forget to sanitize the water storage containers. To sanitize containers and utensils, mix one tablespoon of Regular Clorox Bleach with one gallon of water, creating a Sanitizing Solution. Always wash and rinse the items first, then let each item soak in Clorox Bleach Sanitizing Solution for two minutes. Drain and air dry.
Please remember that water in dehumidifiers is also potable, but be sure to sanitize the dehumidifier water container.
Emergency Supply List
The U.S. Government’s “one-stop” web site on avian influenza, www.PandemicFlu.gov, provides a sample list of foodstuffs and other emergency supplies for stocking:
Examples of food and non-perishables:
Ready-to-eat canned meats, fish, fruits, vegetables, beans and soups Protein or fruit bars Dry cereal or granola Peanut butter or nuts Dried fruit Crackers Canned juices Bottled water Canned or jarred baby food and formula Pet food
Examples of medical, health and emergency supplies:
Prescribed medical supplies such as glucose and blood-pressure monitoring equipment Soap and/or alcohol-based (60% - 95%) hand wash Medicines for fever, such as acetaminophen or ibuprofen Thermometer Anti-diarrhea medication Vitamins Fluids with electrolytes Cleansing agents Flashlight Batteries Portable radio Manual can opener Garbage bags Tissues, toilet paper
To better help plan for “shelter-in-place”, all U.S. citizens are encouraged to refer to the www.PandemicFlu.gov website, as well as the World Health Organization website (www.who.int/en/). Please also visit the U.S. Consulate General website for further information: Avian Flu.
We will continue to distribute and share pertinent information on Influenza Pandemic Preparedness as we receive it.
Note that the advisory calls for “foods that are non-perishable, do not require refrigeration, or preparation (including the use of water), or cooking.” That sounds like canned food and crackers to me.
This might just be the beginning point of telling American citizens (ultimately, in the US) to stock more. In other words, this will begin the discussion in the news media, and kick the ball rolling a bit farther down the field concerning SIP preparation.
A point to think about is the fact that if a pandemic occurs other countries will have their hands full feeding their own people. If you are an American you might not get the same consideration as one of their own people. It would be best to be prepared to get through at least the first wave when there will surely be travel restrictions.
The thing about the U.S. government is that it’s pretty big, and sometimes one hand does not really know what the other is doing.
The State Department may have some forward thinking individuals who are very aware of the threat of H5N1 and who have the authority to take action on their own to ensure the safety of their people.
The CDC and Leavitt’s group at DHS have publicly disagreed about what to advise the populace on what course of action to take and about the need to do so. For a U.S. announcement, things would have to be very agreed upon and highly coordinated and choreographed. That may not be the case with State Department advisories, which most American citizens at home will never see anyway.
Hopefully there will be more clarity in direction ensuing after both the elections in the U.S. today and this week’s election of the new DG at WHO. Hopefully.
I have a thought. If US citizens run out of food or water, it is the responsibility of the Consulate aka State Department to take care of them, and eventually to help them get home. I’m sure that puts some impetus into the State Department’s sense of urgency!
I wouldn’t want to be on consular staff in such situations…
I remember now that when SARS broke out, the US consulate in Hong Kong evacuated all non-essential personnel and their families.
The reason was not the particularly high risk of infection, but the fact that if someone gets sick, and local hospitals are swamped, then the Consulate has to Medivac the patient back home. The cost of doing that for even one person suffering from infectious disease is astronomical. And they (the officials) were told in no uncertain terms that the normal health insurance would not pay for that.
anon_22 - at 8:51
Consulates are also telling non-governmental Americans that there will be no Tamiflu for them if they are caught in a foreign land and pandemic hits.
Because my children’s pediatrician practices in a neighboring town we do not live in, she will not have the authority to dispense that town’s portion of the strategic stockpile of Tamiflu to my children. I doubt that governments elsewhere will be more generous, and they may be loathe to distribute Tamiflu to foreigners who find themselves on their doorstep (such generousit certainly can’t be counted on).
If the consulates are warning American travelers and expats that there will be no Tamiflu for them, I doubt if there will be much they can do to help stranded citizens with food and water issues either. Makes me rethink that whole vacation idea I had…
I do not think this event should be played down - I for one will take it at face value until I learn otherwise. I think this is a significant development.
I do not think this is something that’s been in the works getting polished before being released - I think something tripped a trigger, somewhere, and this is the result.
The date at the bottom of the State Department advisory is July 2006. This is not a new development.
just made the news?
Clawdia—”I think something tripped a trigger, somewhere, and this is the result.”
How could the hivemind of FW have missed it?
It was breaking in hong kong.Why is it “new” now?Also on Newsnow.and Bankockpost?
From Dr. Niman at the CurEvents:
The three isolates with three changes are in Shantou.
Shantou is next door to Hong Kong.
What did the US tell Hong Kong residents to do?
Here’s his two Commentaries:
Commentary
H5N1 RBD Changes Increase Pandemic Concerns in China Recombinomics Commentary November 7, 2006
The recent H5N1 sequences from China include four sequences from geese in Shantou (A/goose/Shantou/2086/2006, A/goose/Shantou/239/2006, A/goose/Shantou/2104/2006, A/goose/Shantou/7775/2006) that have four non-synonomous changes in or near the receptor binding domain (V214M, K222R, V223I, and S227R). Changes at position 227 (S227N) have been associated with increased affinity for human 2,6 receptors and decreased affinity for avian 2,3 receptors. Although affinity chnages for this particular combination of chnages, the presence of this number of changes in or near the receptor binding domain.
These chnages appear to have been generated via recombination because two of the changes are circulating in northern China (K222R in A/goose/Jilin/hb/2203(H5N1)) or Japan (V223I in A/chicken/Yamaguchi/7/2004(H5N1)) and recombination between H5N1 in northern China nad Japan is not uncommon.
As the diversity in receptor binding domain sequences increase, the potential for additional chnages via receombination also increases. Thus, circulation of a large number of receptor binding domain sequences co-circulating in H5N1 creates a serious pandemic concern.
This concern is increased by the withholding of current sequences as well as a questionable surveillance system, since only one Qinghai sequences has been reported in eastern China.
The sequences from avian and human H5N1 isolates from China in 2005 and 2006 should be released immediately. H5N1 sequences from 1997–2004 demonmstrate frequent recombination in northern China, and a robust database is required to determine the likelihood of additional recombination.
2nd Commentary:
Commentary
H5N1 Receptor Binding Domain Changes in Shantou China Recombinomics Commentary November 7, 2006
H5N1 sequences from patients in Egypt were released today. The S227N change in the receptor binding domain was reported for one of the eight sequences, bringing the number of human Qinghai sequences with S227N to three. This change was predicted on October 22, 2005 in a warning issued for an increase in the efficiency of H5N1 transmission in humans. S227N was subsequently confirmed in the index case for Turkey in January 2006 and was also found in a second isolate from Turkey.
To date, only four human sequences from Turkey have been released, so the number of patients positive for S227N remains unknown to the public. Similarly, only one sequence from the cluster of fatal infections in Azerbaijan has been released. The three S227N positive patients in Turkey and Egypt suggests additional unreported sequences from the beginning of 2006. At this time more H5N1 will be migrating into the Middle East, increasing the likelihood of additional acquisitions from H9N2 infected poultry, since H9N2 is endemic to the region.
Sequences released last week also show receptor binding domain changes in H5N1 from a goose in Shantou. The three changes, K222R, I223V, and S227R, within such a small region, suggests these changes were also acquired by recombination. The high level of H5N1 detected in China raise concerns that additional recombination events will further increase the genetic diversity. The Shantou goose isolate, A/goose/Shantou/2086/2006 also has a novel HA cleavage site, QRERRKKR, again signaling rapid genetic change, which is a characteristic of increased frequencies of recombination among genetically diverse viruses. Moreover, the Qinghai strain, A/Guinea fowl/Shantou/1431/2006, is also present in Shantou, increasing the likelihood of acquisition of PB2 E627K by recombination or reassortment.
tjclaw1 - at 11:55 The date at the bottom of the State Department advisory is July 2006. This is not a new development.
Where did you see the July 2006 date? Looking at the US Consulate website Nightowl linked too I see a Nov. 3rd 2006 date…..
Maybe we’re not looking at the same thing? I was looking at this, posted by
Siam – at 00:52 http://travel.state.gov/travel/tips/health/health_1181.html
scroll down to the bottom, it says July 2006.
Was there a different one sent out more recently? Does anybody have a differnt link to an actual advisory?
Having recently visited HK, I’m thinking most U.S. government employees, there, are apartment dwellers. I hope they have enough room.
fredness at 8:09 has the nov 3rd link.
tjclaw1, look at http://www.tinyurl.com/vdndw for the State Dept. notice. It’s different - more specific and more alarming.
Follow-up thought on anon_22′s 8:55 post, in addition to the high cost of bringing sick individuals out…they may not want another replay of CNN “the world watches the Superdome after Katrina type event”…without taking some measures at prevention.
Treyfish – at 00:18
Weellll ,how do they inform 60,000 americans there?Telephone?Letter?Email?Would you get one?
Through the Warden system.
E-mail and local websites usually if the infrastructure supports it, which in Hong Kong it does.
Commonground is right - Niman’s notice of the change in the recptor binding domain area (227S) in samples found next door to Hong Kong, (not to mention confirmation that it is also in Egypt), is significant.
In a crisis in a foreign country, the first job of a U.S. consulate is to try to ensure the safety of Americans. They’ll go to great lengths to do so, even bringing in the Navy and evacuating as was recently done in Lebanon. However, if a pandemic strain errupts quickly, or even if we see a concentrated outbreak similar to the one in Turkey (which had S227N), a place like Hong Kong may see its airports closed quickly. Due to the nature of this problem, evacuation may not be prudent, or a possibility (thus the advisory to have on hand 3 months of food and water).
thanks bg.
BG - what’s your take on this?
It will be a crisis here too,so when do we get the 3 month news?Hahahahha
Thank you Pixie. I was waiting for someone to connect those dots…….
It just occured to me. What do you do when you are hacked at China for not releasing viral sequences, and at the same time are wondering what the effect would be upon a population when official word goes out to stock up on 3 months of food?
The answer: Send out a notice like the one discussed in this thread, and make sure it makes the local newspapers in a city like Hong Kong that has 60,000 Americans present (to also spread the news). The reaction upon local markets should be revealing.
Just a wild-haired guess everyone. But it should still be interesting as what happens in Hong Kong in the next few days or weeks.
whole lotta preppin goin on ..alrite …. oh yeah…uh huh…
Does anyone know if this information has already been given out to the people in HK at whom it is targeted, or is this something that is going to be relayed to them in the future?
Just wondering about the reactions to the whole thing from those for whom it is intended.
Could this be timed to affect the WHO DG election?
it’s not on the website for the embassy for tokyo, Japan
http://tokyo.usembassy.gov/e/acs/tacs-newsletter20061101.html
NawtyBits – at 15:11 Could this be timed to affect the WHO DG election?
Doubt it. This consular advisory is more pragmatic than strategic. Everybody has been hoping since May that no major news pandemic-wise needs to be released until a new DG is elected though.
One would think this announcement would be mentioned in MSM by tomorrow.
Trying to find more info, I ran across this pdf from Commander, Navy Installations Command.
http://www.nepmu5.med.navy.mil/assets/Pandemic%20Flu%20Planning.pdf
Funny slide, page 3 says… Playing with sick chickens, although fun, is dangerous.
Gotta love those boys with expensive toys.
and from page 7
National Security Presidential Directive (NSPD) being discussed that will include sensitive aspects not contained in the National plan
Intelligence and surveillance Mortuary affairs
didnt see anything on stars and stripes.
I’m waiting to see what the people who received the cable do. Will there be a stampede of dependents back home? That will be a key to what they’ve been privately told. Telling people to prep is prudent because HK did learn some things from SARS, but if the Americans are alarmed we may see a lot of them come home. By the way, most of those Americans are living in resort like high rise apartments in American grouped areas. A lot of them work in finance and as we know the world bank is on the problem. Interesting to see what occurs…
Much to do about nothing. Absolutely irrelevant. I wonder, will those that jump into panic attacks at every little piece of news every other month - ever realize that they have been wrong so many times? And realize when it really happens?
GreenlandDoc 16:46
I hear Margaret Chan is looking for an assistant.
GreenlandDoc – at 16:46 Much to do about nothing. Absolutely irrelevant. I wonder, will those that jump into panic attacks…
So it’s considered panic to express healthy curiosity in a news development now? Okie dokie then.
The majority of the posts on this thread, with a couple of obvious exceptions, have been reasonable exchanges of information and opinions. Certainly, the discussion has been no more speculative than 99% of the other threads on the wiki.
Makes one wonder if the soothers aren’t experiencing a bit o’ projection.
As for being wrong so many times, hallelujah that so many of us have been wrong so far. May it ever last!
Yeah,the state depeartment casually says stock up for the coming winter season.Maybe THEY are wrong?
Thanks GreenlandDoc. Thanks for bumping me back into reality.
It is interesting to read this entire thread and see how anon_22 tries to calms things down, yet the fire keeps smoldering until it’s ablaze again.
Every theory here is given prominence and consideration. Until GD gives his/hers. And suddenly, people like Homesteader start taking jabs.
I’m amazed that there are people who have believe the people that brought you Katrina and Iraq, can conspire to do what so many here believe. I just don’t think it’s possible. TPTB aren’t that good at it!
I agree that it’s interesting that they recommend prepping for 3 months to US resident in Hong Kong, while telling folks here in the US to plan for much shorter periods of time. I’m not quite sure what’s up with that, except to say that they expect delivery systems to be “better” in the states, should a pandemic develop.
But I have to agree with GD. The timing is likely irrelevant. It was likely written months ago and is just now being released. I believe it’s becoming SOP to release memos about Panflu and prepping, regardless of the current events.
Thanks GreenlandDoc. Thanks for bumping me back into reality.
It is interesting to read this entire thread and see how anon_22 tries to calms things down, yet the fire keeps smoldering until it’s ablaze again.
Every theory here is given prominence and consideration. Until GD gives his/hers. And suddenly, people like Homesteader start taking jabs.
I’m amazed that there are people who have believe the people that brought you Katrina and Iraq, can conspire to do what so many here believe. I just don’t think it’s possible. TPTB aren’t that good at it!
I agree that it’s interesting that they recommend prepping for 3 months to US resident in Hong Kong, while telling folks here in the US to plan for much shorter periods of time. I’m not quite sure what’s up with that, except to say that they expect delivery systems to be “better” in the states, should a pandemic develop.
But I have to agree with GD. The timing is likely irrelevant. It was likely written months ago and is just now being released. I believe it’s becoming SOP to release memos about Panflu and prepping, regardless of the current events.
What is suprising is the advice of stockpiling for 12 weeks. All pandemic models support that as a minimum time of a wave during which it would be prudent to avoid contact with the public. Nothing sensational. There is no current increase in outbreaks.
While there is no cause for panic, it is a shock to see such an important message to the public released in such an inconspicuous way.
I believe most people here are frustrated by the fact that while experts and the government say this is important, there is no large effort (campaign) to advertise www.pandemicflu.gov. There is no clear recommendation to stockpile to prepare for “shelter in place” on that site.
Clawdia – at 13:44
BG - what’s your take on this?
The suggestions are DEFINITELY more in line with what we were told as public safety at our class.
Perhaps they are slowly aligning the public with the private recommendations.
I do think it’s significant to have it in black and white.
VERY significant.
Not you ( but many other’s here) are screaming Don’t Panic.
Who’s in a panic ? I think it’s a normal adjustment reaction to have a bit of a pucker after reading this.
Patch – at 17:50
But I have to agree with GD. The timing is likely irrelevant. It was likely written months ago and is just now being released. I believe it’s becoming SOP to release memos about Panflu and prepping, regardless of the current events.
I have to agree.
Things take MONTHS to get out of the approval cycle at State.
But the message IS consistant with what I have been exposed to privately.
pablo escobar – at 16:15
and from page 7
National Security Presidential Directive (NSPD) being discussed that will include sensitive aspects not contained in the National plan
Intelligence and surveillance Mortuary affairs
I discussed that PDD several weeks ago here.
Do a search for PDD and there are a couple of threads on it with the declassified outline.
Choosing to announce this outside of the U.S. is likely a carefully thought out decision. When the same thing is announced here, the impact won’t be as big, coz it’s half-old news.
Ah yes the.
Oh THAT. That’s OLD news.
(hand brush)
Yeppers
Another reason to tell people 12 weeks abroad (vs MAYBE 2 here) is in many countries it is not always easy to get necessary supplies. Here it was sooooo easy for me to waltz into Wally world and buy a bunch of 5 gallon collapsible water containers - not so in the former Soviet states I lived in a few years ago. We had to bring in suticases full of things like vitamins, Advil, contact solution, etc. And we’re not talking Somalia here; Poland, Russia and Ukraine. Medical care is pretty bad - you wouldn’t want your dog to have puppies there. We certainly adapted our food preferences, made do without certain things, etc. but I never trusted local “medicines” which were usually locally produced. Embassy employees typically get access to employee shops and can get many produts. But there are lots of other Americans living and working abroad that don’t have access to certain things. I would not want to be there if TSHTF - it would be tough to get a flight out of the country, or even back to the US. Even harder to find food in a big city where corrupion is endemic. Living abroad can feel very isolating even in teh best of times, so to be in a foreign country with pandemic flu, often not speaking the local language all that well - it would be pretty tough.
Still, it does beg the question why them and not the general population being told 3 months?
It just occurred to me that this announcement was dated November 3rd, on the eve of a U.S. election, news of which will crowd out such an announcement in a foreign country. so it didn’t become headline news on CNN. Speculation, of course.
Thanks, BG. I didn’t think you meant me when you mentioned those saying not to panic. :)
But, if anybody thinks I’m in a panic, think again. I’m living in a state of perpetually heightened awareness. I’m doing what I think needs to be done. Emotionally, I’m a tad spooked - but as BG said (and thanks, BG), it’s normal not to feel so good after getting slapped upside the head with this in black and white.
I think it’s a good thing. I also think it’s a significant thing. Just how significant is something we’ll see in the future . . .
I view this announcement in the light of other information coming from, or in spite of, the Chinese Government. There is a growing list of contrary articles, going back for over a year now, from the Ministry of Health (which appears to be trying to report truthfully) and the Ministry of Agriculture, which is stomping on everything that could be perceived to be negative. I also note that in the last week the Foreign Ministry has weighed in on the side of the Agriculture Ministry (ie the recent article about the Fujian-type strain). I wonder if the virus isn’t out of control, and the PRC is now trying desperately to control the information instead. If that’s the way it is, this warning from the State Department is very serious indeed.
Snicklefritz - that’s one of my primary concerns, and one reason I see this as such a serious development. I just can’t see it having been done lightly.
I kinda use CIDRAP as a barometer. Got an e-mail update from them tonight and they are now reporting it. I take that very seriously and think it is very relevant, as opposed to GD who thinks it is “Much to do about nothing. Absolutely irrelevant.” If CIDRAP thought it was “absolutely irrelevant” they wouldn’t be reporting it.http://tinyurl.com/u5v2c
No, I don’t see panic,I see concern. Will be interesting to see if the current federal recommendations will be revised upward.
Word gettin around.
Patch – at 17:49 The timing is likely irrelevant. It was likely written months ago and is just now being released. I believe it’s becoming SOP to release memos about Panflu and prepping, regardless of the current events.
For me, the timing has never been the point. It’s the message. Always the message. Whether it’s WHO updates or State Dept. cables. The message in this communication is substantively, materially different from anything that preceded it. We can only hope that there are other such announcements about to spring forth from the bureaucratic cogworks stateside.
Everyone who has commented about such government announcements taking forever in the making is 100% right. I actually had a meeting with a state pandemic planner today and was told virtually the identical message. A flyer that was conceived last spring and was targeted for distribution in August is just now back from the printers and ready for release.
I also agree with tjclaw1 that CIDRAP is a worthy bellweather in this and other matters.
Make that “bellwether…”
Pixie - 1341 - In a crisis in a foreign country, the first job of a U.S. consulate is to try to ensure the safety of Americans.
I’m sorry to say that when I worked for State in a foreign country, it was my job to talk to local American women’s groups and tell them that first job is to protect the paper not the people. Shred, burn, and put in drums of acid, but protect the paper secrets. Next on the list, is protect the ambassador (by not letting him/her get hurt or thrown in the drum - LOL). Then embassy personnel, if possible. Americans outside the govt employees/families were told YOYO, we’ll help if we can, but don’t count on us. Not our job, your choice to be here, take care of yourself. The news media has changed that a bit because other countries try to “rescue” their folks and it made us look bad. But embassy folk always said, when it hits the fan, go to the Canadian or Israeli embassy. They’ll help. That’s why this notice is so unusual. SIP cause we can’t help you. I’ll be watching for dependents to be coming home. That will tell a lot. Will international schools there close? If they do, duck for cover. Essential employees stay, dependents and non-essentials go home during possible trouble. If it’s close, they’re gone.
I agree with Edna Mode. It’s the message. Recently I taught a three day influenza unit to my life science class. I gave them a handout to take home about the two week recommendation for food and water, discussed the six week recommendation made by the State of Nebraska, and the personal 3 month stockpile by Dr. Webster. The kids got it. They know that two weeks of food/water won’t be enough in a severe pandemic. A recommendation for 12 weeks of food is an acknowlegement of what the future may hold…
I think it’s just the third or forth ring of notices.
Yes, we are getting close, yes if you don’t have your preps shame on you, but really, a surprise?
There is a pattern to this. A method to the madness, if you will. TPTB had never any intention of a ‘fire alarm’. A gradual notification based on some parameters. I’m trying to fiqure out what those parameters are. Then chart the pattern. Any ideas? Flame away if you think it’s needed.
I still think you/we are reading too much into it.
The CIDRAP website tjclaw1 @20:54 provides, clearly says:
“ The recommendation that US citizens overseas stockpile 12 weeks’ worth of food and water differs from the current federal recommendation for general pandemic preparedness. The government, on its pandemic planning Web site, recommends that US residents stockpile 2 weeks’ worth of food and water.”
IMHO, citizens abroad simply need to take extra precautions. A longer SIP term may well be one of those extra precautions. Nothing more.
I do believe, that 6 weeks prep is more realistic than 2 and I would not be surprised to see revised gov’t recommendations. Notice the CIDRAP wording says, “current federal recommendation”
Cause I have to tell you…I spend a lot of time looking and see very little that would make me believe anything is changing drastically….or even significantly at this point.
anon_22 – at 08:51
If US citizens run out of food or water, it is the responsibility of the Consulate aka State Department to take care of them, and eventually to help them get home. I wouldn’t want to be on consular staff in such situations… The reason was not the particularly high risk of infection, but the fact that if someone gets sick, then the Consulate has to Medivac the patient back home
Anon----The Embassies’ responsibility is to “help” US citizens get back to US soil…not to feed them in this instance. Thus the warning to stock up - or get out. This is WHY my nephew in Indonesia sent his wife & 2 toddlers home in August.
Their newborn kept getting sick; and to get her competentmedical help, they had to evac her to SINGAPORE every single time ! He is still at the Consulate in Sarayabaya. And he will remain at our Consulate until there IS no Consulate anymore…kinda like when we pulled out of Saigon…he will be on the very last helo out of there. Or he’ll die taking care of the last US citizens there.
But you’re right…about not wanting to be on consulate staff……I wish he would come home…I wish he could, but he can’t and he won’t…he’s just not that kind of guy. He’s there to do a difficult job, and he’ll do it, or go down trying his best.
I have a call into him; but he is “out”; or he would have gotten back to me by now. And when he is OUT, that means he in right in the middle of a hot spot….so the longer I don’t hear from him…the more I worry for his safety.
The question of whether you are reading too much into this can be tested this way:
Are you the kind of person who freaks out (or whatever other word you use) cos no one is talking about pandemics?
Are you the kind of person who freaks out whenever pandemic is mentioned?
If you answered yes to both questions, then maybe you should rely on your reaction to news to tell you about your adjustment status than about pandemic status.
Just saying….:-)
All jokes aside, if what we do here is having the right effect, we should expect a lot more public communications about pandemics in the next few months. I really do hope it happens more often.
One other thing, the issue of 3 months preps. I don’t know if the US government will eventually (or in the near future) officially tell everyone to prep for 3 months. There are many reasons why they won’t, one of which that I hear frequently is that if everyone stays home and not work, the infrastructure collapse will be faster, etc. The other reason is most people can’t afford that.
Now, when I translate that into expats in HK, I have 2 observations. First, most of them (apart from the occasional backpacker) are highly paid in relation to local living standards, so money is not an issue. Secondly, its not their country, so who cares if people don’t go to work? It’s not their infrastructure, so the State Department has no responsibility in keeping things running for foreign countries…
And then, of course, it is a densely populated city, 7 million people with no natural resources. In an emergency, I would assume that HK will be on a priority list of places to maintain by the Chinese government pouring in resources. In such circumstances, foreigners may or may not get preferential assistance.
As I said, I wouldn’t want to be in that job right now.
In other words, double standards are likely to continue. Not that I think they are good, just telling it like it is.
In terms of US embassy people helping other US citizens out in times of crisis,? Not so much. A lot depends on the country, the embassy staff envolved, and who you know. We lived in countires with small expat communities so everyone knew everyone else (or someone who did). Even still, based on the fact that it’s “the government” and that many staffers, let’s just say, weren’t highly motivated to give 100% effort, it was tough to get things done when the embassy was involved. Honestly they were kind of the last reort in terms of getting things done. And if you’re an expat living in say, London, I think you will definitely be on your own. There is no way the embassy there could help the 1000′s of expats living there.
As I said before, I am very glad we are not in the situation right now, especially in a city like Hong Kong. Where we were would have been a bit more manageable - 15 minutes by car and you were in the country with plenty of farms, fresh water, etc. We were lucky that we never had major medical crises and DH worked for a company that would evac you out if there were. Not all expats are that lucky - there are lots of NGO’s, peace corps staffers, etc. who don’t have a lot of resources. The average embassy staffer isn’t making gobs of money either. Usually they are there to “check off a box” on their resume and build their career. And I can’t imagine trying to cram 3 months worth of food and water into the average Hong Kong apratment - shoeboxes!
I agree with anon_22 that we should calm down a bit. the more I read over this, the more it sounds like standard “protocal.” It isn’t out of the ordinary for U.S. embassies to warn U.S. citizens of potiental danger in the country that they are in.
cottontop - at 7:06
I am not one to get overexcited about any signs we’re moving toward a pandemic, primarily because I think it’s inevitable we’re going to see one. And yes it’s the job of the U.S. consulates to warn U.S. citizens of possible impending danger - that’s SOP. What is not SOP is to warn our citizens in foreign locations to stockpile 3 months worth of supplies just in case of XYZ threat. I’ve simply never seen such a recommendation before made in any circumstance.
Also, this consular advisory does not have about it the marks of a document that was “meeting-ed” to death over a long period of months. My new state pandemic plan and website most definitely does. My state’s pandemic plan has obviously been managed to death - it now says basically nothing at all and barely uses the word “pandemic.” On the other hand, this State advisory seems like it was issued by someone with a sharp sure hand, and a very informed one. This HK advisory does not sound to me like a typical document that has been watered down, with all the objectionable parts edited out as everyone in the room attaches a sticky that says “too strong, delete” to passage after passage. Maybe the HK office would like to just tell the expat Americans to go back home, but that’s untenable. As a second option, they’ve produced a pretty strong document here, with a very unusual message.
JWB – at 23:06 I think it’s just the third or forth ring of notices.
JWB, I may not be understanding your comment correctly. Are you saying this Hong Kong thing is the third or fourth such notice recommending 12 weeks of preps? If so, please point me to other such references as I must have missed them.
Pixie – at 07:28 I am not one to get overexcited about any signs we’re moving toward a pandemic, primarily because I think it’s inevitable we’re going to see one….What is not SOP is to warn our citizens in foreign locations to stockpile 3 months worth of supplies just in case of XYZ threat. I’ve simply never seen such a recommendation before made in any circumstance.
Exactly.
Pixie- I agree that it sounds strange/odd for the stockpiling recomendations. Anh I would really like to see what’s underneath that statement. But what I’m suggesting, is for the time being, let’s not get carried away, just yet. What would really make me push the panic button, is if the U.S. had told the Americans to get the hell out of the country!
It isn’t out of the ordinary for U.S. embassies to warn U.S. citizens of potiental danger in the country that they are in.
If Hong Kong is in imminent danger of a pandemic (impending flu season), why not the rest of the world? How long does the US have until there is a outbreak if there is an outbreak in HK?
What would really make me push the panic button, is if the U.S. had told the Americans to get the hell out of the country!
Perhaps they are, not in so many words. Maybe the muddy message (get out) is in the clear message (12 weeks.)
I think we miss the forest for the trees. This “12 week” message is seemingly unprecedented. If I were in HK, and I was up to date on the panflu situation, this message says to me “Send my family back to the states for the winter, prepare for at LEAST 12 weeks, because it’s coming.” From another post on another site “SIP is Hong Kong is a death sentence.”
cottontop - at 8:10 I would really like to see what’s underneath that statement.
Probably so would the 60,000 strong American expat community in HK who may right now be burning up the phone lines to the U.S. consulate, asking them to explain why they’ve put out this notice now and what has changed.
cottontop – at 08:10 US would never do that IMHO. Would you want the US citizens in HK to take the disease to your neighbourhood?
I mean the US wouldn’t say “get out of there!”
Pixie- Seriously. It’s hard not to push the panic button on this one. I do believe that if we lifted that top page and peeked underneath, the chances that our blood would drain from us would be good. That’s how serious I think this has developed. However that is speculation on my part. It is very hard not to get carried away with any new piece of breaking news such as this. I’m nervous enough as it is, for fear that I don’t have enough time to get my family up to 2 months of prep. (stay calm, she chants to herself.)
I forgot to wish you a beautiful day Pixie dear!
Thinlina- No, I would not expect them to say, “get out”, but who knows. Maybe they will when this goes pandemic. They have advised citizens to leave countries on occasions.
Edna Mode – at 07:44 ‘’JWB – at 23:06 I think it’s just the third or forth ring of notices.
JWB, I may not be understanding your comment correctly. Are you saying this Hong Kong thing is the third or fourth such notice recommending 12 weeks of preps? If so, please point me to other such references as I must have missed them. ‘’
Please see the rumors thread : JWB – at 19:56 and Bird Guano – at 01:44
US H5N1 policy is stay-in-place quarantines, isn’t it? HK doesn’t sound very nice.
NawtyBits @ 8:33- “If Hong Kong is in imminent danger of a pandemic (impending flu season), why not the rest of the world? How long does the US have until there is a outbreak if there is an outbreak in HK?”
Exactly! It’s a 15 hour flight from Hong Kong to Los Angeles.
US H5N1 policy is stay-in-place quarantines, isn’t it? HK doesn’t sound very nice.
Exactly. This is the State Department’s way of telling people, if this hits, you are stuck here. We are NOT sending potential vectors back to the US. Soooo, plan accordingly. And by saying “impending flu season” they are implying a timeline….and to me it says “soon.”
In one word, “Precautionary”.
IMHO, anything else and you are reading too much into it.
In one word, “Precautionary”.
All of our prepping is precautionary.
The notice from State says words like “guidelines” and “should” and “impending flu season”. There is nothing to “read into” here. It is spelled out. Now, given that the virus would expected to be the same here as there, and show up here soon after showing up there, why are they being told 12 and we are being told 2? Do you think that they think that telling HK 12 weeks, and us only 2 weeks, that there will be plenty of warning time to allow the US to be issued guidelines for 12 weeks? Now THAT is reading too much in to it.
It makes no sense. Same virus. Essentially same outbreak time. Different guides?
different priorities?
(If we didn’t get sent the memo, we didn’t make the triage short list? right?)
Continuity of Government w/out Continuity of the Public.
Makes sense to me; “tragicaly wrong” history unfolding, so far…
NawtyBits at 11:01
Where in the State Department advisory did you see “Impending Flu Season” or anything indicating a timeline? I don’t see that. Can you point it out to me? Thanks.
Here’s what I think, and this is absolutely my personal opinion:
If I was TPTB, I’d be flipping many times over, over this thing. Not because it is imminent, cos I don’t think it is, but because of the complexity of the mitigation. How long did it take to convince the State Department that this threat is real? Then how long did it take for the decisions to be made, then how long to filter down to implementation?
Remember that telling people to stockpile for 3 months is not the same as people stockpiling for 3 months. It takes a lot to convince them, then people have to spend tiime doing it. You guys know how time-consuming it is /has been. I’ve been doing this for a while, I have no idea how much of what I have, but it’s nowhere near 3 months of anything.
In the meantime, once the recommendation is out, you’ll have all sorts of enquiries, people asking whether they should send their kids home, whether they should send their kids home now, or the end of the next term. Or whether it is possible to bulk purchase dry food from the US (cos they are not available ther). Then you get harassed by all the businesses who say why on earth did you say that… and so on.
I personally am glad that the South China Morning Post wrote this up. Somebody got to start, going public with recommendations for SIP. Maybe that’s a safe place for the US to test the response to this recommendation? Make the recommendation, then monitor the no of Americans leaving, then you get an idea of how people back in the US might react to such kinds of recommendation.
Hmmm….
Keep in mind that history is written by the winners, not the losers, and it ain’t over ‘til its over.
. . .creeping back to my den after a weak yet tragic attempt at optimism.
Also important to keep in mind is that US Dept of State is not HHS. State has a lot of concerns that HHS doesn’t, predominantly that the American citizens it is trying to watch out for are in foreign countries. HHS is looking at events/people/needs here at home.
I agree that they should be recommending more than 2 weeks worth of SIP supplies, but just because the State Dept. has suggested Americans living abroad stockpile 12 doesn’t mean they know something the rest of us don’t.
I am laughing as I type this because a lot of my dear fellow fluwikians love to paint TPTB as inept and not too bright and then something like this pops up and they want to paint them as clever and conniving. That’s not only ironic, it’s pretty darn funny.
By suggesting Americans abroad prep for a SIP of 12 weeks as opposed to 2, embassies and consulates take a lot of pressure off themselves. Please keep this in mind when considering the contents of the cable being discussed here. They have several pressures that HSS does not and will not ever have to operate under.
Finally, as a good friend of mine at one of the US embassies said when asked about this recent cable, “make sure to use your common sense as much of this information is influenced via the political winds.”
An advisory has been sent out to all 60,000 registered US citizens in the former British colony urging them to prepare the stockpiles ahead of the coming winter flu season.
OK — I see that the phrase (in bold) isn’t actually from the State Department cable. It is from the news report. I see nothing in the cable that suggests layig in supplies by a certain date or time. I’m just pointing that out. Not sure what it means. But news reports can sometimes be a little bit sloppy.
Interesting. We sure have come a long way from “remains concerned”. The last “American Citizen’s Newsletter” sent out a little over one year ago reads:
American Citizens Services Newsletter (10/5/2005) U.S. Consulate General Hong Kong Avian Influenza Special Edition Background: Avian Influenza Steps You Can Take to Minimize Risk What the U.S. is Doing As a Government More Information
Background: Avian Influenza
The U.S. Government remains concerned that the ongoing foreign outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in infected poultry has the potential to turn into a human influenza pandemic that would have significant international political, economic and social consequences. Since mid-2003, outbreaks of the H5N1 strain of avian influenza have been confirmed and continue to be detected among birds in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Thailand, Vietnam and possibly Laos.
More here at the site:
http://tinyurl.com/y6kvvn
maybe to put this in perspective we shoudl look at the past…
What was said prior to Y2K to our expatriots?
What was said as SARS was emerging?
On that note, I think such a letter is a “heads up” to send non-necessary folks home, such as spouses and children, for their safety. Remember when SARS broke and peopel started coming home? They were “held” at the airports for a day or two to “clear” to be sure they weren’t sick. -and a few turned out to be afterall, necessitating longer quarantines of those returning from overseas. With the flu, the quarantine period will be much longer…a week vs. a day or two. Can the airports handle that if 60,000 all try to come home at once when a pandemic emerges? Maybe they want to get a bunch of folks home now before that could ever be an issue.
I’m getting tired of people accusing those of us who express concern of being in a “panic”.
I’ve yet to see anyone I thought was in panic mode, and if this development does not warrant some degree of increased concern, then I don’t know what it would take to do so.
This is significant, and anyone who says it isn’t must not be paying attention.
There’s a big difference in saying it is significant and saying it is cause for panic.
I have to agree.
The Panic BS is wearing a little thin.
We’re not 3 yr olds.
Most here are educated professionals capable of detecting patterns and using critical thinking.
Variations in the patterns SHOULD get our attention and be investigated.
The PANIC moniker is obnoxious actually, and projects the insecurity of the labeler.
Clawdia – at 12:35
Clawdia, I agree with you completely. People who may be, either consciously or unconsciously, nervous about their own or their extended family’s state of preps telling others who display normal curiosity and attentiveness to developments to calm down is just plain annoying. I have a mother. I’m married to a psychotherapist. If I need to calm down, trust me, they’ll let me know.
Laced throughout many of the posts on this thread are counterproductive, presumptuous attributions regarding everything from one’s mental state to one’s interpretation of the imminence or lack thereof of pandemic.
The facts are that a notice to stock up for three months was sent to US citizens in Hong Kong. That message is multiples of degree different from what is being told to US residents stateside. That, plain and simple, is ethically corrupt. And THAT is the issue that I am concerned with. Not whether it means the pandemic is starting tomorrow. Not how long it took the state dept. to polish its message.
I don’t know why that is so hard for people to get, but apparently, it is.
Rant over.
Bird Guano – at 12:54 Ditto
That was me. I cleared my cookies.
I’ve checked the gold charts for today, including Hong Kong gold, and the price of gold is down. Since Hong Kong is an historic & world renowned mercantile center, people there (citizens and professional traders alike) are well aware of its value during any calamity. Hong Kong gold traded basically unchanged last night, and London gold traded sharply down, then recovered a bit. New York is still open, and gold is still trading well under the price levels at which it traded during the previous two days.
Our friend, GS, would probably say that this is an indication that the “experts” are not particularly worried about anything, as his take on things is that they usually have a bit of an inside track. (Right, GS?) That’s one valid way to interpret things.
My take is that we are often very early here, and I expect it will take a while for this news from the American consulate in HK to be digested (although I will agree with GS that gold traders, as experts, are usually uncanily fast reactors).
Also, I’m also not sure how many people there really are in the world that speak fluent “Niman,” and understand what it means to say that there have been three changes on one gene segment near the receptor binding domain of H5N1 in five different isolates found throughout 2006. (My translation of this news is that there have been some important changes in the area of transmisibility found in the H5N1 gene and this is a bad thing because the fatality rate for this virus is still very high and because some of those samples were collected in a province adjoining Hong Kong). I’m pretty sure, though, that most gold traders don’t speak “Niman.”
ANON-YYZ – at 19:47
Choosing to announce this outside of the U.S. is likely a carefully thought out decision. When the same thing is announced here, the impact won’t be as big, coz it’s half-old news.
ANON-YYZ – at 20:09
It just occurred to me that this announcement was dated November 3rd, on the eve of a U.S. election, news of which will crowd out such an announcement in a foreign country. so it didn’t become headline news on CNN. Speculation, of course.
It’s carefully orchestrated.
So I agree it is significant in the sense that there is a recognition of the need to START warning the public gradually, in a manner that would not cause panic or market disruption. Doesn’t mean there is any ‘inside news’ that panflu is imminent.
Maybe it would be too overwhelming to suggest 3 months to start (stateside), so if you start with 2 wks. then then wait awhile. After a few months, move the recc up to 3 wks. and so on, until we ‘get there’. I would not be surprised to see the pandemicfludotgov site increase the time to 3 wks soon.
My take on this is simply that Americans in Hong Kong should prepare, or if they can’t, they are being given adequate time to wrap up their affairs, and leave before any kind of panic sets in. Better a bit too early than too late.
Well, at least I can be glad I’m not the only one who is weary of the patronizing “don’t panic” routine. (Thanks, guys)
With respect, the State Department advisory is really saying two things.
1. If a pandemic starts in Hong Kong, there is no way we can even plan to get any of you 60,000 people out inside three months because the logistics of moving you will be insanely complicated.
2. Store three months food.
With respect, the State Department advisory is really saying two things.
1. If a pandemic starts in Hong Kong, there is no way we can even plan to get any of you 60,000 people out inside three months because the logistics of moving you will be insanely complicated.
2. Buy and store three months food, because there is a good chance a pandemic is going to hit this flu season. (in other words our backsides are going to be kicked harder if we don’t tell you to prep, than if you kick us because there is no pandemic this year)
Walrus - at 17:26: (in other words our backsides are going to be kicked harder if we don’t tell you to prep, than if you kick us because there is no pandemic this year)
Reading your words, I just got a mental flash of Geraldo, Shephard Smith, and Anderson Cooper doing Katrina-like reporting of a pandemic from the U.S. Consulate in Hong Kong. ;-)
FrenchieGirld posted this in the News Thread — it is a column by someone living in Hong Kong who got an email from the State Department regarding having 3 months of preps.
I thought he sounded really whiny — he’s basically upset that stateside, Americans only have to prep for 2 weeks but people overseas are being asked to prep for 3 months — i.e. SOOOOO unfair?
Argh — I can never type correctly — of course I mean FrenchieGirl.
Interesting tidbits in that article.
“Supplies would take up 30% of the floor space in a typical Hong Kong flat.”
And he assumes that he would be magically “rescued” by the US Government after 12 weeks ?
Quick, somebody get a clue-by-four.
Bird Guano – at 18:53 Quick, somebody get a clue-by-four.
Good one, BG!
ACM- I’m thinking that this guy posts over at curevents. He was in the hong kong thread.
Pixie at 13:34
I’m a gold accumulator. I trade, but only in order to accumulate. I own physical gold and silver, and many mining stocks and gold mutual funds. I also buy futures contracts. And options contracts. Gold has been “down” since its May high. Yes, it fell about 12 bucks today. However, three things to consider: (1)Since 2000, gold has by far out performed the stock market or real estate market in the U.S. It will continue to do so, Ibleive; (2) The markets are influenced by many variables. It is a worldwide market. Central bankers from all nations play a large role. In addition, someone in India or Saudi Arabia may not be particularly concerned with what the U.S. State Department advises Americans in Hong Kong to prepare for; and (3) The price of gold (measured in any currency) will skyrocket in a pandemic, Ibleive.
I consider the warning to the folks in Hong Kong as a GIGANTIC tsunami alert. That wave will hit the U.S. (and the rest of the world) faster than greased duck poop when this thing busts out. We’ll see. I’m ready.
Maybe some can recall more details but IIRC when SARS happened and Toronto was dealing with the outbreak (it may have been the second outbreak) WHO put Toronto on its list of Warnings AND they stated that the warning would stay in place for 90 days. This annoucement in HK may be to inform individuals because in placing that warning (or increasing the WHO pandemic alert level) it is possible no one would get in or out of HK therefore they need to be prepared for 3 months. Heck we think we have problems with space storing preps I can’t imagine doing it in HK.
Prepping Gal – at 00:43
I suspect it was that experience of economic impact of an WHO announcement that prompted Canada to host the 2005 Pandemic Conference in Ottawa, and to ‘teach’ other countries and pressure the WHO to proceed cautiously with the phase announcements.
Something very interesting has happened. On another thread Nov 6 there was this:
spam – at 16:25 “U.S. Consulate General for Hong Kong and Macau November 3, 2006 The U.S. Department of State recently sent a cable to all diplomatic and consular posts entitled “Pandemic Influenza: Preparing for Possible Shelter-In-Place”. The cable’s main intent was to provide guidance to all staff regarding “shelter-in-place”. That is, in the event of severe pandemic influenza with high morbidity, the public may be advised to self-quarantine. Therefore, current guidance notes that families should be prepared to “shelter-in-place” for up to twelve weeks, and maintain sufficient food and water supplies to accommodate that entire period. Just as in the United States, U.S. government employees and their families overseas have primary responsibility for maintaining adequate supplies of food to shelter-in-place. This also applies to private U.S. citizens. For the long term, families are advised to store foods that are non-perishable, do not require refrigeration, or preparation (including the use of water), or cooking. The cable also advises that families should store one gallon of water per person per day.”
here it is, not a rumor
http://hongkong.usconsulate.gov/ci_avian_2006110301.html
I went to that link, and it was clearly an advisory to stockpile 3 months of supplies. all of you in this thread keep referring to stockpiling 3 months of supplies. I copied that link and pasted it in an email to family members in order to convince them to prepare. But when I clicked back on that link today, first in my email, then back on the original thread, lo and behold the date on the article had changed to Nov 9, and the advice had changed from stockpiling 3 months of supplies to 2 weeks!!!! Go look. It also seems lower key to me, but I can’t remember exactly what the original said and unfortunately I didn’t make a copy.
so what do you all make of the change?
Mary in Hawaii – at 01:47
When asked, they will say it was a mistake, now corrected. But some journalist may not accept that, and see it as a back pedaling, and make it a bigger story.
I wonder who would be a good reporter to call attention to this
Anon 22:
I believe you mentioned you were in HK. Could you please tell me when the flu season occurs there? I thought HK was opposite in seasons from US or am I wrong? Once we know the flu season in HK, maybe the message will be more clear.
Jumping Jack Flash – at 02:00
Stockpile 2 weeks: if you get panflu, stay home and don’t infect other people, but your family will still be in close contact with you.
Stockpile 3 months: stay home and don’t get infected during a wave (estimated duration by various experts).
What’s the definition of ‘Shelter-In-Place’? To die or to live? What is the State Department telling overseas Americans? To live or to die?
MSNBC, ABC and others have run pandemic stories.
Helen Branswell in Canada has written many stories.
anon-yyz at 1:54. The odd thing was to have the original link changed, so that it is impossible to go back and verify. If all they wanted was to change it and say they made a mistake, that would have been a new post, a new URL. But this one purposely supplants the earlier one, using the original URL. Isn’t that a little strange?
Mary in Hawaii – at 02:21
Some one who received the first e-mail could write the Consulate and asked for clarification. See what they have to say. Some journalist could e-mail and ask for an explanation.
c3jmp found it google cached and put the link in the New Rumors thread, if you want to go get the Nov 3rd version
eo7 – at 02:05 Anon 22:
I believe you mentioned you were in HK. Could you please tell me when the flu season occurs there? I thought HK was opposite in seasons from US or am I wrong? Once we know the flu season in HK, maybe the message will be more clear.
Just about now.
As a veteran HK-er, (if there is such a word), and investor, Pixie’s words are sort of on target. People there are very aware of the pandemic potential. They may have their heads in the sand right now, trust me, if there is any sign, these 6+M people won’t need anyone to explain what is a pandemic and how come you need to go and stock up on everything. Assuming insider information, you would see shares tumble first, probably. Gold price may not go up though, cos the local market is not big enough to affect global prices, I don’t think. The spot HK gold is just the price quoted in HK, but in reality trading goes on 24/7 round the world electronically.
Don’t know if you can tell mask shortages from a distance… cos that would be one of the first things people would rush to stockpile.
anon_22, what do you make of the difference between these 2 documents? They’ve changed the recommended time to stock up for…
twelve weeks
two weeks
MaMa,
both links said 2 weeks now.
I did see the 3 month document though.
Anybody want to go ask them?
There could be a no of explanations:
1) the original South China Morning Post story was a mistake (unlikely).
2) the original State Department letter was a mistake (in which case someone should ask them whether that was a mistake).
3) we are all suffering from mass hallucinations here (let’s all go see a psych??)
4) somebody decide to change it and pretended nothing happened (why? and if they’ve already sent out the letter, are they going to send a different one? How are they going to explain it?)
anon_22, ‘both links said 2 weeks now’
Not on my browser, but no matter.
I was just wondering what your opinion might be on why it might have been changed.
thanks
‘’‘cottontop – at 08:10
What would really make me push the panic button, is if the U.S. had told the Americans to get the hell out of the country!’‘’
In my opinion; what they are saying “between the lines” is that 1. we’re telling you to stockpile for 3 months. AND
2. That TRAVEL inside HK and IN & OUT of the country may not be possible during a pandemic.
Now if THAT doesn’t translate into “Stock up or GET OUT while you can” , I don’t know what does !
I don’t believe anyone here is panicing----we are all informed enough to have done our homework & prepping;.to leave that kind of panic to those poor souls who will not have stocks in their home.
I think I know what this is.
The following sentence replaces the original sentence, The Department of Health and Human Services, via its pandemicflu.gov website, advises that families have on hand two weeks of emergency supplies (food, water, medicines) in the event of a pandemic influenza.
Original Therefore, current guidance notes that families should be prepared to “shelter-in-place” for up to twelve weeks, and maintain sufficient food and water supplies to accommodate that entire period.
At the end of both documents, you find this “To better help plan for “shelter-in-place”, all U.S. citizens are encouraged to refer to the http://www.pandemicflu.gov/ website”
Somebody at the State Department jumped the gun, advised citizens to prep for 12 weeks, refered to HHS, only HHS hasn’t moved to 12 weeks as policy, at least not yet. Now they have to backtrack, cos State has to take Pandemic recommendations from HHS.
Ha!
very funny…
I’m sorry, I know somebody’s career prospects just took a dive, but this is rather hilarious. I would so love to read the next letter that they send out to US citizens in HK saying, “oops, sorry, its, er.. 2 weeks, not twelve”
Typo, maybe?
Only HHS may be moving to 12 weeks in, I don’t know, 12 weeks? (Disclaimer: this is pure conjecture, and a little tongue-in-cheek, so take it for what its worth).
In which case the poor folks have to send out a third letter that says “Er, excuse me, it’s, um… twelve, ahem, weeks, after all.”
M Chan changed it!HAHAHA.Imho.Too many people trying to split,because as you said A22, not enough preps on the island to get in the short amount of time.Would’nt also the rsidents see people stocking up and do the same?Not a typo imho.Sounds fishy.
Treyfish – at 04:33
M Chan changed it!HAHAHA.Imho.
I think that should go to the rumor thread! LOL I know that the US voted for her, at least on the last and deciding round, but that’s still too funny!
No, definitely not a typo. What I meant was would they try to pretend it was a typo?
A lot of the US mask supply comes from abroad, especially (what a surprise) China. For those of you who don’t have your supply yet, you may want to address that now vs later.
The web page was spelled out as twelve. Definitely not a typo.
All the models support the fact that waves last approximately twelve weeks. Recommending people stockpile based on that fact is prudent. Anything less is shortsighted, ignorant, decieving, two-faced…
Here is a note for The Standard newspaper in Hong Kong about the original e-mail. http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=15&art_id=31354&sid=10752514&con_type=1
The politics of survival
Thursday, November 09, 2006
“Pandemic Influenza: Preparing for Possible Shelter-In-Place” read the subject line. Another dratted spam message that got through my e-mail filter, I thought initially. After trying unsuccessfully for years to convince me that my wife felt dissatisfied with my performance or that nature had left me under-endowed in certain critical male capacities, they had given up targeting sexual insecurities and tried a new tactic.
Panic.
I started to delete, then noticed the “From” box said US consulate. That is a different disguise for a spammer. They usually say John or Dr Jones or your wife’s girlfriend. That one used to always get me.
But this was the first claiming to be from a diplomatic arm of government. Spammers and phishers have tried every disguise - banks, eBay, even the Internal Revenue Service - but never the State Department.
No one would ever mistake a message from such a source as requiring immediate attention. Not even the president takes the State Department seriously. The dumbest spammer should know better than to try the US consulate as a compelling con. So I opened it.
However, it was genuinely from the consulate, informing US citizens that the State Department had sent them a cable of the same title. They were passing on tips and directing us to the pandemicflu.gov Web site.
I got it as one of 60,000 Americans in Hong Kong on the consulate’s e-mail list.
Americans, unlike nearly every other nationality, are taxed on all income derived from all sources earned anywhere. The government aggressively puts resources into checking out whether citizens overseas comply with these rules. As a consequence, reporting requirements for Americans investing or banking abroad are such a pain to comply with that many overseas banks and investment firms refuse to take Americans as customers.
Getting official services as an American abroad is another matter altogether.
Regular consular e-mails usually makes me feel somewhat better about my annual check for taxes. But once I read it, I did not feel quite so warm and fuzzy.
The message basically implies that if a bird flu pandemic hits, you’re on your own.
One thing Americans abroad once considered comforting was having a big naval fleet in case of major emergencies. In the past, Americans in jeopardy through civil disturbances or war overseas have been rescued by air and naval forces.
Then earlier this year in the Lebanon-Israel conflict, Americans abroad found out how much they could count on their government in times of real need.
None at all.
While other nations promptly sent ships and aircraft to rescue their citizens, the US government sent notices that Americans had to find their own way out. Then, embarrassed by the contrast between that callous indifference versus quick action by European states, the United States offered assistance in leaving - with costs of the emergency travel to be billed to the refugee later.
That differs little from the fire department sending a bill for rescue services to a family that lost everything it owned in a fire.
Stung by criticism, the Bush regime finally relented on charging its taxpaying citizens for the protection it owes them and finally, after much delay, sent them.
But the administration that revealed depths of indifference for its citizens even at home with Hurricane Katrina is up to its old tricks. If you live abroad when a pandemic flu hits, prepare to survive on your own for up to 12 weeks, said the e-mail. In contrast, the pandemicflu.gov Web site tells stateside Americans to prepare to shelter-in- place for up to two weeks.
That is a 10-week difference before help arrives if you are an American overseas.
I started calculating the space needed to store the 12 weeks of water, food, toilet paper, batteries, cooking fuel and so on the e-mail said my wife and I should set aside. At eight liters of water a day, that alone amounts to more than 30 of the big Watsons Water bottles. All up, 12 weeks of supplies take up around 40 cubic meters.
That is a third of a normal-sized Hong Kong flat.
You’re going to need a bigger place, according to this official US government notice.
However, since the former Republican-dominated Congress drastically cut the tax break for overseas housing costs, that means you will have to pay for this out of your tax-reduced paycheck.
You survive, maybe, if you can afford it.
The anti-evolution Republicans consign Americans abroad to a Darwinian struggle for survival if a flu pandemic hits. If you live here and voted Republican in this week’s election, those are the real values you voted for.
Hope the Democrats do better.
author; help is not going to arrive after two weeks here, either -need to write a follow up piece; we’ve been told we’re on our own about 13 months ago…
Feds can’t help, states can’t help; mutual aid will be impossible, municipal governments are afraid to tell the public we’re in a pandemic alert period, so they’re not making community and household preparations …
Dec 2005 state flu summit, MN HHS Sec. Leavitt:
“Any state, any community, or for that matter any citizen
that failed to prepare - assuming that the federal government could take care of them during a pandemic - would be tragically wrong”
(the pandemicflu.gov site went up Oct. 2005, and fleshed out slowly after that with all those checklists, but that was when we got notified to plan without relying on federal help)
When the information about the Hong Kong 12 week recommendation first came out, someone (I am not sure if it was from here or another flu site) called HHS and asked why their website was recommending 2 weeks while US citizens in Hong Kong were being told to stock food and water for 3 months. The person answering the phone talked with supervisors twice - they evidently did not know about the information out of Hong Kong. Then the information gets magically modified in Hong Kong. I do not think it takes a lot of imagination to figure out what happened and why. TPTB at HHS have taken control in order to have a similar message. The bad thing is that the information being given by HHS may not be very good.
Sniffles – at 09:44
Thank you. That pretty much verifies it as far as I’m concerned.
I hope somebody saved the original one somewhere … not that it really matters in the grand scheme, I suppose. I mean WE all know what it said. We’re not all crazy, ha. I don’t think it’s a typo. Some “official” with the State Dept. got this 12-week info. from “somewhere” and jumped the gun without checking the government guidelines on the web, IMO
Makes me have flashbooks to the book “1984,” where books were destroyed by the government. If it’s not in print, it didn’t happen. (At least that’s the way I remember it, could’ve been some other book)
Well, I know someone that printed out the first message and gave a copy to all their co-workers. It seems to have inspired several to get busy. Now everyone wonders how to store all that water (they are all city dwellers).
Suzi, the cached page can be accessed using the link in my post at 2:51 or using the link in c3jmp’s post(the one who found it) on the current rumors thread.
Suzi – at 09:51
I hope somebody saved the original one somewhere
I did. :-) Never know whether it might be useful.
HennyPenny – at 10:07 Well, I know someone that printed out the first message and gave a copy to all their co-workers. It seems to have inspired several to get busy. Now everyone wonders how to store all that water (they are all city dwellers).
They don’t need to store all that water right away. But they will need to buy containers, and water purification chemicals etc. One useful thing to get is the collapsible water containers which you can fill up when TSHTF. Add bleach and you’re all set. Someone did say once, thought, not to put these on concrete as the chemicals in concrete will leach into the water, and that goes for regular water jugs too.
Are you living in HK? Or tell your friends. Go to these little hardware stores in Happy Valley or Wanchai for huge stackable laundry buckets with lids. You can stack a whole lot in a bathroom without taking up a lot of space. Remember though to get rubber hose, siphon, ladle, etc as well.
from a local girl. :-)
Sniffles,
It was I who called the CDC to ask why there was different info given to teh conuslates than what was on the pandemic.org website. I don’t know if the representative I spoke with talked to their Supervisor twice, but certainly they spoke to someone else at least once. The first time I was put on hold, they may have simply been accessing teh pandemic.gov site themselves to see what was being said. The second time I was put on hold, they were gone a much longer amount of time and then came back with a very dictated response as I had posted before.
I want to set the record straight however, it was not HHS that I phoned. It was CDC’s general information line that was published at the pandemic.gov website that I contacted.
Still very interesting that info was changed though. (I’m just finding this out now)
It may have been because all the flu forums immediately “jumped on it” and drew attention to someone’s more educated suggestion. The problem is, they TPTB want to present a unified, consistent message and that was/would cause confusion/conflict as a “mixed message”. (as it obviously did here)
CDC is part of HHS, right?
I have a copy of the original advisory as I sent it to my sister who is travelling to Hong Kong. (She left yesterday for 5 days). I bet consistency across the board is what they’re striving for.
Argyll.
crfullmoon at 09:17 -
Doesn’t get any clearer than that.
Found this link at CIDRAP dated 11.7.06 It addresses this advisory. Please feel free to delete this link, if it does not follow proper protocol.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/nov706quarantine.html
Argyll.
well, I printed ou tthe original message and teh news releases about it. I have them in hard copy and have showed them to numerous people. I am much relieved at someone else’s “slip up”. This was the one thing that FINALLY woke up my closest friends and family members to truly grasp the concept that the Bird Flu might be something real and not just a Y2Kish scare. Everyone that has seen this has had raised eyebrows and legitimate concern. They have all asked, ok, now I see…what should I do now?
Thank you all for educating me here so that I have been able to provide a good response.
There was no stock market melt down or people panicking on the street. It proves one thing, there is no worry about telling people to prep for 3 months. Most will just yawn and prep for two weeks. If you say two weeks, most will do nothing. “Oh, I have enough in my pantry.”
However, if TPTB asks people to prepare for 3 months after a formal declaration of phase 4 by the WHO, we may not have the same outcome. So I think CDC/HHS should announce 3 months shortly, but must be before phase 4 announcement by the WHO.
There’s a problem in that they have apparently already sent out a cable to all the U.S. embasies and consulates advising 12 weeks of preparation. Standard verbiage - to the public - on consular sites always says “two weeks.”
Hong Kong read that cable, and noticed that it specifically said the advisory was for U.S. citizens, not just for government employees. Their take on it was that they had been told to advise “all” American citizens under their jurisdiction.
All I know is that I’d like to know who put that advisory out, and I want to run them for Pres. in 2008. I’d like to see them appointed to the position of Pandemic Czar in the meantime. (I can dream, can’t I?)
anon_22 – at 10:40 CDC is part of HHS, right?
anon_22 - you are correct. CDC is a department under HHS.
I almost hesitate to post this here. I subscribed to the HK warden email alert system right after the consular advisory was noticed here. I received a confirmation, and a welcome email. I have not received any follow-up email since that time. Has anyone else who may have subscribed?
So, Pixie, what they are saying in public might be different than what they are saying in private now? Perhaps they thought by sucking back the public memo, that we would be placated, and it would go away….
Ooops…the 2week memo on the consulate webpage has been replaced with a generic panflu page listing links to all the usual suspects…..
Nothing to see here…..Move along.
NawtyBits – at 18:05
The more I think about this, the more I realize that there are several players that are affecting what is said. In all reality, CDC would not be telling another agency (the US State Dept) what to do. It may not even be HHS. We must remember that for pandemic planning and coordination, it is the Dept of Homeland Security, not HHS that will be doing all of the coordination. The only things that HHS will be doing is coordinating vaccine distribution and making treatment recommendations and coordinating other medically related information. Homeland Security is doing everything else. IMHO, it probably was Homeland Security that requested the State Dept to change their website information. Just a guess. Hong Kong residents may not be getting changes yet because they are trying to figure out what they are going to do/say. If their plan is to gradually change the message over time, it might not be wise to send out a changed e-mail/fax. Instead, they would make the change on the State Dept website back to 2 weeks and then modify it when the US as a whole increases their food/water preparation recommendations to its citizens. Please keep in mind that this is only a guess on my part.
Sniff…see me at 18:22….Methinks it’s more than that.
From 12 weeks to 2 weeks to a generic panflu page…. OOOOOOpps., is an understatement. Perhaps it was written in advance to be issued for a future emergency, but someone slipped up and sent it out in error.
Perhaps, but somehow I doubt it.
Just wondering. If you were caught in another country that was hit by a pandemic, I don’t know but I would think it would be impossible to get back in the U.S. I mean, wouldn’t we be restricting flights from that country?
I take back what I said about Geraldo, Anderson Cooper & Shep Smith reporting from the U.S. consulate in HK potentially looking like their reporting during Katrina in New Orleans.
If the U.S. authorities pull back that email warning to U.S. HK expats (officially, by replacing it with a “no don’t worry message,” or the new “non-message,” and TSHTF, the U.S. Consulate in HK will not look like New Orleans during Katrina, it will look like Saigon on April 30, 1975. And those will be U.S. citizens outside the gates. And climbing over them.
In the end, honesty is always the best policy. For the record, you did the right thing, HK consular office, you did the right thing.
Now the whole page has been pulled from that site. Nada.
So no journalist could write about the retraction. Private e-mails could still be sent to U.S. citizens there. Clever indeed.
ANON-YYZ – at 19:14 So no journalist could write about the retraction.
Not before I emailed the South China Morning Post though….
NawtyBits – at 18:31 Of course it is. There is no AI in China or Hong Kong, just ask the Chinese government. Why should people prepare for something that does not exist????
If you search the site typing in “newsletter pandemic” it gives you a list of references. Two references regarding SIP flu dated 11–3−06 show up but links either take you elsewhere or come up with error messages.
The original article is still quoted on “India eNews:” http://tinyurl.com/yavc9h
Fascignating stuff.
The genie’s out of the bottle. They can’t put it back. If some journalist pushes, they can only duck (pun intended). Who’s going to risk being quoted like Baghdad Bob on TV, and say you only need two weeks?
May be some one organizes the U.S. citizens in Hong Kong and stage a press conference to seek clarification. We are talking about life and death here.
ANON-YYZ – at 19:31 Who’s going to risk being quoted like Baghdad Bob on TV, and say you only need two weeks?
That’s why they can’t officially retract what they said on Nov. 3rd. now.
I want to say a lot more, but I think that person who put out that advisory is a hero and I fear that anything I say about how bad things could get either without his advisory, or as a result of a retraction of that advisory, would just make things worse for that heroic person. That person was trying to prevent a bunch of Americans from carrying tragically sick (American, btw) kids to his consulate’s steps. Whatever happens, that person needs our support and needs to know that absolutely any one of us would love to see him in our own states, running pandemic preparations here, if our office in HK no longer needs his services. Hopefully one day this individual will get credit where credit is due, and we can all say thank you to someone who did what was right, which is all we really ask of our Federal employees.
This seems more peculiar by the hour - and grows no less concerning.
My guess? The Chinese government squawked at being used as a guinea pig for the announcement of a 12 week SIP warning. See my Nov 7 post at 14:37.
Okieman - at 20:02
I think you are very possibly right, and that the disappearance could have come from China as well as H&HS. Leavitt, from my understanding, would like to see everyone urged to have enough supplies on hand to SIP for 12 weeks, so you can guess where my vote lands on that issue.
I also think that Treyfish is right, and the timing was not coincidental with the appintment of Dr. Chan as the new WHO chief. There was perhaps a certain window that needed to be taken advantage of while it was open.
That was me, Pixie, at: anonymous – at 20:06 (must’uv dropped my cookies)
Okieman – at 20:02
I doubt the State Department would change it because the Chinese objected. I think the scenario earlier is more credible: Some one here called the CDC, got put on hold, and subsequently the web page changed, and when talked about it more, the page just got pulled.
Interesting article regarding Japanese plans for expats on news thread. AI also topic at high level meeting Bush attending in Hanoi with other world leaders next week.
Okieman – at 20:02
The timing of the first announcement got more to do with the U.S. mid-term elections, so no one’s really watching from the U.S. and it won’t make the headline news on CNN.
I would like CNN Asia to go after this story. Dreaming, maybe.
Found an article with a link that goes to the original article:
The US government recently forwarded a cable to consulates overseas advising employees to be prepared for a possible Avian flu pandemic and that they might have to shelter-in-place for up to 12 weeks, which includes having adequate water, food and medical supplies stored.
“The US State Department is advising government employees overseas to stockpile enough food and water to last up to 12 weeks in preparation for the threat of a severe influenza pandemic. “..more there
Here is a state department article about the cable sent, the one referenced in the first linked article.(google cache, I couldn’t get a regular link to work correctly, I could get there once, but a second time gave an error page that pointed back to here..weirdness…the goog cache works fine)
As soon as I heard about this earlier in the week, I saved the actual US Consulate General document as an image (.mdi) and can email it to anyone who is interested.
NWF gal – at 21:00
Can you please email to one of the mods so they can post it as image here?
ANON-YYZ at 21:11 - OK. I just emailed it to a mod.
Did anybody save the second advisory — the one from Nov 9th that recommended prepping for just two weeks? ‘Cause, as anon_22 points out, the whole page is gone now….
Ah. There’s actually some screencaps here of both advisories (hat-tip Ryan, via Potemkin!):
http://ryanschultz.typepad.com/blog/2006/11/us_consulate_in.html
It’s here
Do you have the intermediate advisory from Nov. 7th in screencap? (The one with the 2 week SIP advisory)?
Hey, Pixie. I don’t think there was one from the 7th — was there? I thought there was one from Nov 3 which said 12 weeks, and then one from Nov 9 which said 2 weeks. Now they’re both gone, of course.
link to image from the google cache.
dem, a22
Well done. Any idea how to xplode the docs to a readable size? On my cumputers, the link at first appears normal, then it instantly shrinks to unreadable. ??? Dunno how to get it into to a printable and email format for forwarding. Ideas?
dem, a22
Well done. Any idea how to xplode the docs to a readable size? On my 3 cumputers, the link at first appears normal, then it instantly shrinks to unreadable. ??? Dunno how to get it into to a printable and email format for forwarding. Ideas?
Surfer – at 23:16
You can save it as an image file first, then open and enlarge it.
Surfer
The document is an image.
On Windows, move the cursor over the image, in the lower right hand corner of the image, a resizing icon will appear, click it to expand the image to full size.
I’m using IE7. If I place my mouse curser over the shrunken document, the curser changes to a magnifying glass with a plus sign. I then just left click with my mouse, and the document becomes large enough to read.
Theresa42 - at 22:27
Theresa, sorry, that was a typo on my part! - the 7 I meant to be a 9. I was repeating your quesion as I have not seen a screencap version of the second consular advisory (the one suggesting 2 weeks of preparations). It must be in chache somewhere, though. Or, those of us who printed it off could try to scan it and upload it. It would be easier to get a copy of it via cache, although I have not seen one yet. Anybody?
Here is one more image, clearer I think, with the google cache info at the top also.
Oremus - Can you also locate the 2nd advisory from Nov. 9th - the one stating 2 weeks?
All I can say is very, very interesting.
We have a first-hand look at the future of information management and pandemic flu.
Watch what they DO, not what they SAY.
The “Do” part of this is VERY telling.
Pixie – at 00:24
This is the best I could find. Click the second picture.
Pixie – at 00:17 — Okay! Just thought I missed something there. ;) Thanks!
Unfortunately, I don’t think Google got a chance to cache the Nov 9th version — they removed it from their site so quickly.
There’s a couple of screencaps here of both versions — just the opening paragraphs, though (i.e. where the changes to the text were made) >>
http://ryanschultz.typepad.com/blog/2006/11/us_consulate_in.html
For those who don’t know, stuff only gets cached when the spider comes by. Page 1 might get spidered on the 3rd, page 2 on the 9th, page 3 on the 15th, etc., so a cache of that would have been a fluke.
People were saving the “12 week” cached version so fast that their computers got whiplash.
Pixie, I have a copy of both the google-cached twelve week and the two week version that I copied and e-mailed to myself. If anyone wants it I would be happy to e-mail it along.
MaMa – at 01:29
Oremus_fluwiki@yahoo.com
correction
fluwiki_oremus@yahoo.com
Haste makes waste but can take inches off your waste.
Oremus, done.
“twelve”, not 12. Not a typo.
A teachable moment?
I’d like to offer this (though… it might be more use as a rolled-up newspaper)
National Association of County and City Health Officials pdf Local Health Department Guide to Pandemic Influenza Planning
(Planning assumptions p14, for one thing…p 28 key actions by phase, also. Maybe there are different ways this document can get seen by communities and individuals? )
All the best to whoever put that twelve-week advisory out. They could take over managing preparedness and risk communication my region and we here’d be better off…
MaMa - at 1:09: Thanks I’d love a copy. Got the hard copy printed off but do not have it in the ‘puter. Boy they were quick. pixietheflutracker at yahoo dot com
More speculation on my part:
MaMa posted this article on the news thread (the link can be found there), and I find it interesting how the timing corresponds with the SIP warning retraction in Hong Kong. I can see it now, “Give us the samples or next time we tell them to shelter in place for 20 Weeks. The chinese had to have seen that SIP warning as eventually having a ripple effect in Hong Kong and maybe the rest of the country. If there is a government that want’s to keep it’s people calm and orderly it is the Chinese.
China shares bird flu samples, denies new strain report
BEIJING (Reuters) - “China agreed on Friday to share long-sought bird flu virus samples with international health authorities, after rejecting scientists’ findings that a new, vaccine-resistant strain was circulating in the country.
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Okieman: my speculation is that it’s just a little “gratuity” for Margaret Chan’s selection. And sure, they can agree to share, but of course they can’t share anything nonexistant, can they?
Link to CIDRAP referencing the 12 week warning:
Federal workers abroad urged to store food, water Nov 7, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – The US State Department is advising government employees overseas to stockpile enough food and water to last up to 12 weeks in preparation for the threat of a severe influenza pandemic.
A Nov 3 statement posted on the Web site of the US Consulate General in Hong Kong and Macau said the State Department recently sent guidance on “shelter-in-place” or “self-quarantine” to all diplomatic and consular posts.
The statement said that overseas employees, like their stateside counterparts and private citizens, should maintain supplies of food and water for a possible pandemic. The advisory urges families to store nonperishable foods that don’t require refrigeration, preparation, or cooking. Also, families are advised to store 1 gallon of water per person per day.
The Hong Kong consulate also advises US citizens in Hong Kong and other countries to prepare for water supply disruptions if infrastructure breakdowns occur during an influenza pandemic.
Suggested water purification techniques include boiling for at least 10 minutes and adding specified amounts of regular Clorox bleach.
The recommendation that US citizens overseas stockpile 12 weeks’ worth of food and water differs from the current federal recommendation for general pandemic preparedness. The government, on its pandemic planning Web site, recommends that US residents stockpile 2 weeks’ worth of food and water.
See also:
Nov 3 statement from US Hong Kong Consulate: “Pandemic influenza—preparing for possible shelter-in-place” link
Link to CIDRAP referencing the 12 week warning:
Federal workers abroad urged to store food, water Nov 7, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – The US State Department is advising government employees overseas to stockpile enough food and water to last up to 12 weeks in preparation for the threat of a severe influenza pandemic.
A Nov 3 statement posted on the Web site of the US Consulate General in Hong Kong and Macau said the State Department recently sent guidance on “shelter-in-place” or “self-quarantine” to all diplomatic and consular posts.
The statement said that overseas employees, like their stateside counterparts and private citizens, should maintain supplies of food and water for a possible pandemic. The advisory urges families to store nonperishable foods that don’t require refrigeration, preparation, or cooking. Also, families are advised to store 1 gallon of water per person per day.
The Hong Kong consulate also advises US citizens in Hong Kong and other countries to prepare for water supply disruptions if infrastructure breakdowns occur during an influenza pandemic.
Suggested water purification techniques include boiling for at least 10 minutes and adding specified amounts of regular Clorox bleach.
The recommendation that US citizens overseas stockpile 12 weeks’ worth of food and water differs from the current federal recommendation for general pandemic preparedness. The government, on its pandemic planning Web site, recommends that US residents stockpile 2 weeks’ worth of food and water.
See also:
Nov 3 statement from US Hong Kong Consulate: “Pandemic influenza—preparing for possible shelter-in-place” http://hongkong.usconsulate.gov/ci_avian_2006110301.html
I wonder if and when it will suddenly disappear from CIDRAP’s website.
What are people’s thoughts on the “quarantine” part of the link? Does it have any importance in the how CIDRAP is viewing the information?
Since CIDRAP receives government money, I’m just taking bets on how fast it disappears from their site.
Okieman – at 07:57
Northstar – at 08:11
That deal to share samples was old news. May be a month or two. It was mentioned now to counter the ‘Fujian strain’ paper by Webster et al. We will find out soon enough. I posted some comments on the news thread before reading your posts.
The US Consulate and the State department do not work for the Chinese government. I can’t see any linkage between retracting the SIP for 12 weeks and the releasing of samples. I can’t see how Chan can influence the State department in such a short time and ‘make’ them retract the ‘SIP for 12 weeks’ message.
Too much tin foil here. Need to borrow your metal detector.
I also saved the CIDRAP article as a MS Word document, in case it does change later on.
The original page may be gone, but this opinion piece by Michael DeGolyer in The Standard is still out there: http://tinyurl.com/swy5e
Here is an interesting link to MMRS (Metropolitan Medical Response System) which seems to be an arm of Homeland Security. Their article mentions the 12 week stockpile but the link at the bottom of the page (read the article) links to the CIDRAP page…. http://tinyurl.com/y45r29
North East of Rising Sun – at 12:29
Thank you. Better save the html before it’s gone.
North East of Rising Sun – at 12:21 The link for the article in the Standard doesn’t seem to work for me.
North East of Rising Sun – at 12:29 That is an interesting way to handle the situation. Similar things used to be done when I worked for the state. If important research results/information could not be put out on the state website due to political or other issues not related to the credibility/validity of the information, it would be provided to a non-state entity who would then put it on their site. We would be allowed to post the link to the information via the non-state website because it was not on the state website.
The page takes a long time to load, but it is still there. You can try going through the homepage — http://www.thestandard.com.hk/ and then searching for the author or opinion pieces. If you can’t get to it let me know and I will e-mail the text to you.
Our reading tea leaves won’t change anything. Just have to wait and see. Can’t see getting spastic or changing my hit and miss prepping by what is 50 to 75% off. Does anyone know what the American colony in Hong Kong is actually doing, or what their reaction to this is?
Pixie at 6:57, done.
And do they think those 60K in Hong Kong that got the email won’t pass it on to friends in family in other parts of the world? While I applaud whoever gave to intial notice, I feel very sorry for him/her/them now. Likely they are in deep trouble for telling the truth.
LauraB - at 16:57
…..I feel very sorry for him/her/them now. Likely they are in deep trouble for telling the truth.
As always, I look at both sides. PERHAPS he/she/they are in deep trouble for overstating the current risk?
Patch - having lived abroad myself, I would not want to be in another country in such a situation, PF or other disaster, large city or smaller. Citizens living abroad could be in even dire straights than those of us living at home. Potato, potato, tomato, tomato, let’s call the whole thing off :)
Patch – at 17:06 As always, I look at both sides. PERHAPS he/she/they are in deep trouble for overstating the current risk?
From what I understand, this person received information from the US State Dept and then forwarded that information to the US citizens living in Hong Kong. Maybe he/she was only supposed to give this information to staff only or to keep it internal and not release the information. Your guess is as good as mine, but this person did not make up the information out of the blue.
My CIDRAP e-mail tonight contained the following:
“Please note that the story “Federal workers abroad urged to store food, water” published Nov 7, was updated today. “
The article has the following editor’s note:
“Editor’s note: Shortly after publication of this story, the US Consulate in Hong Kong first changed and later removed its Web page advising employees to stockpile a 12-week supply of food and water. More information on the changes, with commentary, is available on the Greenhammer (Neighborhood Disaster Response) site. “ here’s the link: http://tinyurl.com/u5v2c
Article and commentary that CIDRAP links to: http://tinyurl.com/yd768d
Interesting…..
Comments from EffectMeasure on the situation:
Bloggers catch US State Dept. on bird flu preps Category: Bird flu • Pandemic preparedness Posted on: November 10, 2006 7:55 AM, by revere
Someone should tell the US government: “Big Blogger is Watching You.” Both CIDRAP and crof’s blog H5N1 picked up a story that the US State Department was advising its diplomatic and consular personnel in in Hong Kong and Macao to prepare for a possible “shelter-in-place” event by laying in a stockpile of food and water to last twelve weeks if there were a complete infrastructure breakdown in an influenza pandemic. CIDRAP noted this differs from advice on the US government pandemic flu site which suggests only a two week buffer.
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This thread is getting long. Let’s move to part 2
This thread is getting long. Let’s move to part 2
