I have recently been asked on various occasions by different people my opinion on the US government’s pandemic guidance for individuals and families, and what suggestions might I have. Since I’m not American, and really know too little to answer that, I thought it might be useful to collect a portfolio of responses in case I get asked again.
You know, those opportunities don’t come up as scheduled, they appear at the most unexpected moments, so give me a hand here, will’ya?
Make them bite size, or bullet point, please. I might condense them eventually into one page.
Oh, it may be useful to actually go look up those plans and figure out what needs changing and what doesn’t.
Yes, it’s true. TPTB do want to know your opinion. Shhh….
My suggestions-
Stock food for the whole family for 3 months minimum, and the means to safely prepare it if the power is out.
Water for three months minimum.
Have meds for three months minimum and REQUIRE FDA, DEA and heath insurance companies to allow a “buy ahead” for up to three months.
Each family should have at least a month’s worth of PPE (gloves, masks and eye protection).
OnandAnon – at 18:08
Water for 3 months? Why? Do you expect continuous failure in suppy?
I need the reasons as well as suggestions. Thanks.
What type of pandemic are they asking for preps for? The current US recommendations (water and food for 2 weeks, some prescription meds) seem about OK for a very very very mild pandemic….
Meanwhile, water for 3 months and food for 9 to 12 months seems more like preps for a severe or ultra severe pandemic, especially if you aren’t anywhere near water otherwise. Maybe a sliding scale of recommendations? (-: (Actually that’s not the worst idea…)
Re: the three months of meds advice: Unfortunately, some docs and insurance plans will only authorize one month or so at a time. That should be changed.
They need to stress having copies of important paperwork sealed in waterproof containers/bags either readily available or stored at a trusted relative’s/friend’s house away from the area. That includes birth certificates, marriage certificates, bank account numbers. Also have some cash on hand, just in case the grid goes down and the ATMs are inoperable.
anon_22 – at 18:14 Water for 3 months? Why? Do you expect continuous failure in suppy?
Plan for the worst, hope for the best. Pandemic lasts 12–18 months, two to three waves, six to eight weeks each. Potential infrastructure interruptions for 12 (two waves @ six weeks) to 24 (three waves at eight weeks) weeks. Ergo, water for three months is a minimum when planning worst case. Between power outage and chlorine delivery interruptions, it’s not inconceivable.
Here’s what I think people need to be prepped, in order of priority:
Water, stored or means to gather and purify, 3 months
Food, 3 months
Non-electric heat and cooking source
Special needs items (diapers, OTC meds, Rx meds, etc.), 3 months
Comfort items for children
Edna Mode – at 19:31
Here’s what I think people need to be prepped, in order of priority:
Should have read, “Here’s what I think people need at a minimum to be prepped, in order of priority:
Average Concerned Mom – at 19:11 What type of pandemic are they asking for preps for?
I guess the way to think about this, since nobody knows how severe a pandemic might be, would be simply what recommendations do you think the government should be giving to people.
Please do post, briefly, even if what you think is important has already been covered, cos I want to have a sense of what are the most frequently mentioned items.
Thanks!
First, so we can all check to see what has been suggested so far, here is the government site link for individual and family preparation: http://tinyurl.com/y538bk
1. FOOD: Figure out a basic meal plan for your family for a week, then multiply by 12 (for 3 month stockpile).
Figure out a basic meal plan for your family for a week using storable items such as canned soup and meats, rice, beans, pasta, cans or jars of pasta sauce, cans or jars of fruit and vegtables, dehydrated or canned milk, oil, sugar, flour, spices (salt, etc), baking items such as baking powder and soda, yeast.
2. WATER: Stockpile at least a two week supply of bottled water per person.
Stockpiling more water than this is very difficult for the average person. At the first sign of a pandemic, fill other containers full of water to increase supply (buckets, bathtub, etc). Have a gallon of chlorox on hand to puify that water.
3. MEDICINES: Stockpile 3 month supply of usual meds and any needed medical equipment.
Prescription, over the counter, vitamins.
4. FLU MEDICINES: Stockpile all possible medicines for severe flu.
Anti-diarrheal meds, anti-nausea meds, replacement oral electrolyte solutions (or know how to prepare it), acetaminophen for fever, thermometer.
5. TOILETRIES: Stockpile 3 month supply.
Toothpaste, floss, mouthwash, soap, shampoo, TP, personal items, diapers, etc.
6. CLEANING ITEMS: Stockpile 3 month supply.
Different soaps, chlorox, alcohol hand-wash (60–95%), paper towels, cotton wash cloths
7. PET FOOD & MEDS: Stockpile 3 month supply
8. MISC. ITEMS for 3 months
Garbage bags, ziplock bags, manual can opener, radio & lighting (battery, solar, or hand-crank operated), extra batteries, non-electric means of heating and cooking (like portable propane heater and grill, and extra propane, or wood stove), matches.
9. SUPPLIES TO CONSIDER WHEN SIP NOT POSSIBLE: Stockpile necessary will vary per person.
Masks (N95, surgical, etc), goggles, alcohol hand-wash, disposable gloves.
10. NECESSARY ITEMS, ESPECIALLY IN PANDEMIC
Smoke alarms, fire extinguisher.
11. HELPFUL/USEFUL ITEMS
Wide-mouth thermos, 5–6 gallon buckets (for washing, collecting rain water, or portable toilet), supply of gas + Stabil, supply of extra cash at home, portable radio communication, Dr Woodson’s Bird Flu Manual!
_______________________________________________________________________________________
A stockpile for 3 months certainly may not be necessary because a pandemic wave should be about 8 weeks duration. However, probably we will all need to help someone, and once a wave is over, everything will be in short supply. A two month supply would be mandatory, but a three month supply would help get us all through in better shape.
Anon_22, Lest there be any doubt, Edna Mode – at 19:31 is the recommendation I think the government should be giving to people.
2 gallons water per day per person minimum.
lets go with 4 people—thats 8 gallons per day.
8×7days thats 56 gallons a week.
224 gallons a month aprox.
So much depends upon the grid staying up, and we go back to illnesses, deaths, supplies, accidents/storms/repairs, JIT delivery of supplies..chemicals, spare parts. Any one of them can put us in a situation that will cause the water to either be off completly, spotty service with risk of disease without proper chemical treatment…
224 gallons for a month is the minimum usage, if you or someone is ill, more water to bring down fever, rehydrate, extra cleaning of person and sheets, clothes…
Having 3 months is a good idea in case power is out longer because of delays of any of the afore mentioned possibilities. Redundancy. Water supplies could last longer or not. But water is life.
Also they should have a way to make the water safe to drink just in case the water is running but not sanitized.
Issue advisory that personal physcians can & should write prescriptions now for the following if asked to do so by their clients, along with instructions on their use during a pandemic:
Hello Everyone,
Congratulations on a very helpful thread. I am new here, but here are a few ideas.
Best Regards, Argyll.
In honor of TomDVM and Many Cats, remember the pets and livestock.
Plan to have an educational program in place for your school-age children. I like the 3 months of everything in place.
Welcome, Argyll! We’re glad to have you.
Plan for an extended disaster.
The thought of a month long blizzard is easier to comprehend than one of being unable to venture out of your home for flu related reasons.
in addition to items mentioned above
Keep on hand an extra jug of bleach for cleaning and sanitizing.
A few jugs of rubbing alcohol. Can be used to steralize items and to make hand sanitizer.
Space blankets in case of a loss of power due to absenteeism. If possible / practical an alternative heat source.
On the fence and leaning – at 20:41 Plan to have an educational program in place for your school-age children. I like the 3 months of everything in place.
More an observation than a direct reply to your post, and I do agree that we need to be ready to school our children at home, but there are more important preps that the government needs to get people moving on. Surviving a pandemic will be an educational program unlike any other. It will be living history. It will be survival on the fly. It will be lessons in coping and adaptation. It will be the acquisition of homestead skills. Real life is an education in itself.
Heat sources for cooking and warmth.
camp stoves Propane heater/propane kerosene heaters and kerosene wood stoves Fire place wood/cutting tools tents, below zero sleeping bags extra blankets emergency blankets
matches/lighters buddy burners hot water bottles
hats gloves warm socks
Fire extinguishers Smoke and CO detectors
anon,
ALong with guidelines…minimum three months of everything, four better, to last thru pandemic waves as described above…I think that the government must recommend that people have A PLAN… Suggest people think thru what it might possibly be like (be honest, tell people workers will stay home sick caring for sick, in fear, may be no water, electricity…tell them about pandemic waves and what it might be like in between, shortages etc…etc) Have people imagine their family in such circumstances and think what they would need….in addition to three months heat water food cooking lighting laundry meds first aid comminication recreation..plan about working from home…plan what to do if kids not in school…plan where stay if no heat with who…and what would Triggers be for aspects of plan.
Government entities do same thing with fire safety. They ask us to have a evacuation plan with two separate escape routes from each room, a meeting placeoutside and away from the house. They ask us to practice it. Asking people to think it thru and even run thru it breaks denial of the danger and makes people see what might be missing. SImilarly for pandemic prepping. When i tell people for example we might not have water, they are surprised. I explain about workers at waterworks staying home =no water. Even if ten percent of people are sick in bed at one time, some will also stay home to care for the sick, some to care for kids, and others due to fear, I say. If people think thru it and are given information about what may happen, I feel they will be much more likely to prep. It isn’t obvious otherwise to people why they need water etc.
We may need to start another thread (not here please) about “creative ways to have all you need without stocking up too much”. Maybe an alternative to millions of gallons of water would be a space-ship like device for recycling every single drop. Same for energy and food. Ok: Forum.CoverNeedsStoringLess
All great ideas, but can I throw a wrench into it? Since most PTB tell people perhaps have two weeks worth of supplies (and some as little as 2–3 days!) but very few people actually have that, perhaps starting with a more manageble amount might get people acting. Yes, I know 3+ months would be preferred, but think about how daunting a task that is for the average person. We’ve all been prepping for awhile - even I barely have 3 months worth! If you start with recommendations for : start with a minimum of 6 weeks with a goal of eventually having 3+ months” something like that. I just think if the numbers are too overwhelming,either because of volume or cost, people will just give up right away. Think if we could even get 50% of the population to have 6 weeks worth of everything vs what there is today? Again, not ideal but we’d all be a whole lot better prepped.
Other problem: all well and good in many countries where people can afford to do this (most anyway), but what about developing nations? What do you tell them?
Other problem: all well and good in many countries where people can afford to do this (most anyway), but what about developing nations? What do you tell them?
Grow all of your food and energy near home. This applies also to rich countries. If important supply chains are shorter, we’re all better off: less dependency on transport (oil, intermediate workers), and maybe we can isolate communities better. We humans already have the knowledge to do it. Applying it will take some time, and it’s up to the collective “us” to say how long.
This would be a recomendation both for individual and for community preps. Individuals grow their own garden. Communities do the same and also help individuals.
I would add “grow your own food and energy” as the number one recommendation aside from “get ready to close schools”. Actually, schools might want to think about their role regarding gardens.
(Developing nations? Explain about science of disease, hygeine, and targeted layered containment, and, help them get security from armed raiders, enough food to eat, and basic medical care now? Big problems. Could have done more already, if there had been political will that cared about people -including women and children- and the environment.)
Pandemic influenza can take over a year to wind down. For those “surprised” in the US;
Dec 2005 Congressional Budget Office Report to Sen.Frist; …each wave could last from 3 to 5 months, with another wave 1 to 3 months after the first disappears… They also assumed workers who survived would miss three weeks of work… and mentioned an attack rate of 30% and a case fatality rate of 2.5%
We know, and the WHO recently repeated, H5N1 could go pandemic with its current cfr - which is probably even more fatal without antivirals, vents, and staffed ICUs with the electricity on.
CBO report from Dec.2005 says, Cell-based vaccine production facilities “could open by 2010″. …and limiting the harm of a pandemic flu outbreak may also depend on social distance measures- for example, closing schools and shopping malls. Educating the public could have started in Oct, 2005, or should have as each state had its summit. Broadcast those state summits.
Americans used to pride themselves on being more frugal and self-sufficient. Try and sell that idea to the public, for a change. Be honest about the current age demographics affected by H5N1. Hope for the best - but- prepare for the worst.
Anything more overwhelming that preparing for a pandemic, is- not being prepared for a pandemic.
Anything more overwhelming than preparing for a pandemic…
I’m getting a sense of why the official prep recommendations are so minimal. This is a tough process.
Their job isn’t only to give good, or, only manageable, news. I think they do have a duty to tell the truth so some can take action, time certainly could have been being used to pull together, still could try. At least make preparations what to do if they don’t want bodies piling up. Maybe the public can work backwards from that thought and try to not have there be such a mortuary surge…
Anon-22
To answer your question, the fact that water flows from the faucet does not mean it is safe to drink. My expectation is that if water and wastewater treatment plant workers become ill, that there is a high likelihood of contaminated water being distributed. Adding water-borne diseases to a pandemic does not strike me as a good thing. A cholera or typhoid pandemic on top of an influenza pandemic would be a very bad thing.
I appreciate the comments on this thread and FluWiki in general; thanks to all.
This is not a detail, but a general proposal. The public needs to be told, loud and clear: THE GOVERNMENT IS NOT GOING TO SAVE YOUR ***! YOU MUST TAKE PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOURSELVES, YOUR FAMILY AND HELP OTHERS TO DO SO!!
Katrina was a perfect example of so many people not making any effort to take care of themselves. Not that the government doesn’t have responsibility - but it cannot possibly prepare food, water, lists, medicines, etc for 300 million people.
I am fortunate that I have lived a “basic survivalist” type of existence in many ways for years. It’s no sweat for me to dig a trench latrine and use it - I’ve done that for years anyway (not currently). Get clean in a a gallon of water with a “squat and pour”? No problem - done it for years, even without hot water. Wash clothes by hand? I know all the ways, done ‘em all.
DH was in SF during the Loma Prieta earthquake. People did not know how or where to defecate - they filled their bathtubs, overflowed their toilets, went on the grass in the parks. Unbelievably nasty. This in itself is a horrible health hazard.
The government could put together a basic manual with information that people could then utilize to prepare for themselves.
First of all, thanks for asking for our input. The only thing I can think to add is flu and pneumonia shots for family members.
Practically everything else has been covered, but people who have special needs family members will have to do some extra preparation. My youngest son has sleep apnea and other respiratory problems. When I was making plans for SIP, I called some agencies (fire department, city-county health, etc.) and asked if they had plans to provide emergency oxygen in the case of a power failure. They sounded surprised that I would even ask. We then decided that we had to have a portable generator (that we will use in a detached room) where we attach his homefill machine to the generator and fill his portable oxygen tanks every day.
Unfortunately low-income people will not have this option. Could you throw in a suggestion that city and county health agencies consider having portable generators and portable oxygen tanks in several areas of their respective cities so that respiratory patients could have access? Or perhaps they could use mobile vans to fill tanks? I know we’re not supposed to depend on our governments to do anything (as they tell us repeatedly), but it doesn’t hurt to ask.
Hi. I’ve been reading for a few months and have started doing some preps but I’ve never posted before. But I’m wonder about logistics of water storage for urban dwellers. How would one store 3 months of water in an urban setting? I’ve currently got about two weeks worth stored for my family of three and I’m already worried that my floor is going to cave in. It’s a great recommendation but I fear it needs to be qualified by the statement “if it’s feasible”.
Anonymousus-
Many apartments have a small storage area in the basement. If yours does, this is a good place to put heavy stuff like water. Apart from that, spread the load out so you don’t have so much weight in one place.
Urge people to make disaster planning a lifestyle. All the details in the world won’t be heard if we can’t change how people think. It has to be a grassroots shift in our basic values about personal responsibility.
In line with BeWell above: There has been little or no discussion ref dealing with infants and their waste byproducts, to put it gently. Tell parents of babies that they will have to deal with weeks without disposables and anticipate the fear! A transition to a different system of course for these families has to be incorporated in SIP planning, since the expense up front of investing in the disposables for the length of SIP timeframe being discussed here is unthinkable. And talk about storage space allocation… So water quantity considerations will be different for these families, big time. I tried to find diaper pins for part of my prepping recently, and asked 3 people in the store if they had them before I asked a grandmother/aged clerk and she was the only one who even knew what I was referring to. Rubber pants, cloth diapers, pins - these will need to become AVAILABLE bigtime- that in and of itself may be a JIT panic situation.
And with infants and time passage factoring, new clothing and shoe sizes also need to be part of the prep equation, particularly in weather sensitive locations.
Food, water, meds, heat should be priorities - good luck getting the public to accept conveniences called disposable diapers are not in that equation.
So many expenses, so much to calculate for, so much to get our heads around. Suggested plans need to be outlined for many levels of comprehension as well as financial capabilities. It is very complex.
Where will the financial help come from for families who are barely making do with “normal” daily expenses, let alone doubling up with prepping? There sounds like so much teaching is needed in addition to the physical acquisition of supplies. How can these be written for different levels of education comprehension and abilities?
Thanks all for wonderful responses. I haven’t had time to organize the suggestions yet, but please keep them coming. For those who have posted, can you also check and see if you want to add items? Sometimes other people’s thoughts can serve as reminders of important things that you would not think of right away.
I think it’s a very practical thing to suggest families to make room for stuff. Once you have the room, perhaps with “PanFlu Preps” written in large letters, it’s a matter of filling it up. Someone could draw a cartoon box with this. A clock ticks away on the wall.
It is really difficult to come up with a specific list of preps for a particular household. Because each household’s needs are so different; also their storage space and proximity to water sources, etc. will be so variable.
I like the idea of telling people essentially what the Americans in Hong Kong were recently told — just to stock up in all areas as they can for a certain amount of time (i.e. 12 weeks) and also what Frenchie Girld posted about what UN folks had been told — stock up for 6 weeks in all areas; including think about how you will dispose of human and other waste.
Actually the pandemicflu.gov site has plenty of great ideas already. The only problems are a) no one is really reading it or taking it seriously and b) the time frame (2 weeks) seems too short. And, when you shift from 2 weeks to more like 3 months, you stop thinking about planning nice little regular meals and realize you will need to shift your whole way of cooking and food storage. (I.E. Cheerios and Rice Chex are bulky and expensive; oatmeal and rice are cheap and compact.)
In my personal suggestions to my family and friends I am stressing: keep it simple, think Amish (unless you have boat loads of money) Think how poor people, the pioneers lived. Think tortillas, stews and porridge; not replicating meals you eat today. Frying pans over burning wood; not bread machines and generators to run the microwaves. Long underwear and nightcaps.
Priorities are:
Strategies for using the food stores you have…assuming that while the utilites may crash, they won’t go out on day 1, use whats in the fridge first, use what’s in the freezer nest, along with those istems that have a shorter shelf life, and, then if/when things do get bad, save those items with the longest shelflife for last.
The last thing you want to have someone do is run out because the used the wrong stuff up first and had to throw things out.
Sorry for the really bad typing :(
3 months seems excessive to me. Not in terms of of being unrealistic, but in terms of being too overwhelming. If it is too overwhelming, people simply won’t do it.
I think stocking up for 6 weeks makes more sense. If and when, they can make that happen, they can consider doubling up, to make it 12 weeks.
Some really good suggestions here though.
I thought this was a good point, from the preparation in Hong Kong thread.
ANON-YYZ – at 11:19 There was no stock market melt down or people panicking on the street. It proves one thing, there is no worry about telling people to prep for 3 months. Most will just yawn and prep for two weeks. If you say two weeks, most will do nothing. “Oh, I have enough in my pantry.”
However, if TPTB asks people to prepare for 3 months after a formal declaration of phase 4 by the WHO, we may not have the same outcome. So I think CDC/HHS should announce 3 months shortly, but must be before phase 4 announcement by the WHO.
btw, if I ever get asked again (see first post), maybe I’ll just send them the link to this thread. :-)
anon_22 if you ever DO send them a link to this thread …. here’s more I’d like people to think about….
I said in an earlier post, I’m telling my friends and family to “think Amish”.
I think for the general public — i.e the whole US, say, or any “developed world” wountry, it might be necessary to think even more primitive than that. If you are trying to prepare a population for 2 weeks of food shortage and infrastructure disruption, it is tempting to try to keep up standards of living and so on.
But if you are looking at long term disruption, we probably have a lot to learn from people in the developing world.
Look at what is being done in places in Africa and South America — where access to fuel (firewood) is causing great difficulties in daily life; where water is not pure. What is being done there to give access to a safe, cheap, reusable fuel supply? (Solar cookers — which can be used to cook grains, beans, bread, and also to pasteurize water — I’m not sure how successfully.)
Can solar cookers be used in cities? Probably not the megacities — unless people have access to their rooftops. But everwhere else — they could be used to help people purify water if they had a boil water alert — could reduce the need to store expensive, bulky and dangerous fuel. No, solar cookers do not work everywhere nor everyday — that would be part of the tradeoff.
Average Concerned Mom – at 12:00
Good point!
btw More people read what you write than you think… ;-)
All of the above suggestions are correct. The one I would add if asked, is our current held VALUES, preps is very important, but so is ‘preparing to change our current outlook in life’. It with regret that we may all have to change our current held values if TSHTF.
Alan the Pom -
“It with regret that we may all have to change our current held values if TSHTF.”
I’ve been thinking this too. In fact, I totally lost my husband a few weeks ago when I told him the only way through this pandemic will be a massive cultural change. (He still thinks I am a nut.)
I’m not so sure if what you are thinking is different from what I am thinking, though — in my view, there would be nothing unfortunate about such a change in values.
If RIGHT NOW, we in the developed world could start learning to do with less electricity, less fossil fuel, use less, eat less, transport our food less, make less mess, throw out less, pollute our groundwater less; if we could learn to be more self-reliant, to plan ahead more, spend money more wisely on things that would last, not need to be quickly replaced — we would be in much better shape with regards to the secondary effects of a pandemic.
If we travelled less, moved less far away from family; gathered our children into smaller (village-sized) schools not large comprehensive zoos — we would weather even the primary effect of a pandemic, perhaps not well, but perhaps less explosively.
These would all be good overal cutural changes — though bad for our economy, I assume. I know I have always paid lip service to these ideas but never followed through until very recently. Fear has been for me a very good motivator. Not panic, mind you, just plain rational fear of something that could happen and could be devastating. There’s nothing special about me, I can only assume that most people would react as I have, given enough time.
I am painfully frugal.
Here is what I currently have stocked in order from greatest to least.
Wood Water and water storage containers Rice Powdered / Evapored Milk Beans dry and canned many varieties Flour Bleach Sugar Cooking oil / Shortening Perscriptions / OTC Medicine Salt Rubbing Alcohol Baking soda Matches Fruit Juice Bar Soap Emergency blankets Batteries Ammonia Liquid Hand Soap Toothpaste Shampoo Candles Fire Extinguishers Baking Powder
canned and non perishables baking supplies and spices
I do also have gas and oil for the chain saw. I also have a duch oven.
that didn’t format the way I wanted it to —Sorry
average concerned mom. 12:43 So much of what you have said is true, Our life style, food supply chain, and many more reasons would sadly prevent that happening. My main concern is more to do with if the un-thinkable should happen, that is the time when my current values of life, will most likely have to change. IMO if we are not prepared mentally to deal with the issues that we will sadly face,(this subject has been discussed on many threads on this forum) all the supply prep plans could go up in smoke. The two IMO must go hand in hand.
Average Concerned Mom- ‘(Solar cookers — which can be used to cook grains, beans, bread, and also to pasteurize water — I’m not sure how successfully.)’
Very successfully in most cases. We’re planning to experiment with building a couple different models and trying them out in our climate soon. Part of the preparation, as with anything new, is to learn how to use it in the first place- before the emergency occurs.
A good link for basic info and plans on solar cookers… http://solarcooking.org/
and another… http://www.backwoodshome.com/articles/radabaugh30.html
BTW, I couldn’t agree with you more about how we’d be better off if we lived a bit differently in the developed world.
MaMa — thanks! Actually just this morning, I visted the site you mentioned and ordered a “Teacher Kit” — with the idea that I could figure out how to help a lot of people make these cheaply in my community — they say you can make a small “CooKit” for less than $10. If it works, and can really boil or at least pasteurize water, I think it would make an economical base, or addition, to many people’s basic survival preps.
I am looking forward to experimenting — of course it is winter now, but we’ll see if I can make this thing work. At least, it won’t blow up on me like a battery or pressure canner. (-:
Average Concerned Mom- that’s a fantastic idea! I’m sure you’ll find it very rewarding to teach others, especially concerning such an important skill.
We’ll be building one this weekend(I hope) and trying it out. It’s about 0 to −10c here now here in Manitoba, how cold is it where you live this time of year? I’ll post our ‘results in the flu prep thread once we’ve tried it out.
- ‘At least, it won’t blow up on me like a battery or pressure canner. (-:’
I hear ya and Thank God for that:-) Good luck!
One thing to cover in a description of the need for pandemic preps is TIMING of when the preps may be needed. People I know have questioned the need of > 2 weeks of preps. Here is my answer:
There may be panic buying prior to any outbreak. Think about what the stores look like before a hurricaine or blizzard. Stock up before this happens.
A pandemic can come in multiple waves. During the first wave, you may not want to go out looking for supplies. And if you do, store shelves may be bare.
At any point, someone in your household may be ill (could be ‘regular’ cold or flu). Ensure you have food available for them that’s easy to prepare.
There may be interruptions to power or water. They may be short or longer term. Prepare accordingly.
How long will it take to restock grocery shelves after the first wave? Who will have been growing, picking, transporting, processing, packaging, more transporting the food in the meantime? It’s sensible to have additional supplies on hand during this time. (It’s hard to know which things might be in short supply. A good defensive strategy is to have *your* essentials on hand.)
If limited availability of groceries is followed by a second wave of pandemic flu …
This illustrates why some people are concerned about prepping for a long timeframe. Bottom line — there may be different conditions that contribute to needing supplies. It is NOT saying that there will be one continuous outage of xx period of time.
try to standardize battery needs to AA high capacity NiMH.. get a solarport, a zip stove, a steri-pen, wind-up LED lights and radios.. the steri-pen uses AA, and will be good long after there is no good clorox to be found. the solarport comes with a battpack to charge AA. the zip stove will burn most things combustible found in anyone’s yard, and most trash cans. for any AC needs, folks should weigh the need - and look at alternatives - solar/deep cycle for the long term, perhaps generators for the short..
Average Concerned Mum 12:43
These would all be good overal cutural changes — though bad for our economy, I assume. I know I have always paid lip service to these ideas but never followed through until very recently. Fear has been for me a very good motivator. Not panic, mind you, just plain rational fear of something that could happen and could be devastating. There’s nothing special about me, I can only assume that most people would react as I have, given enough time.
Maybe not bad for “our” economy, but for “their” economy? If I grow my own food and stop needing a second or a third car, then maybe we can work less as a family; bad for the bank.
Maybe many people are more or less ready for those changes. See http://www.culturalcreatives.org
Tricky part is: how do we get from A to B? It has to make sense in our everyday decisions. Starting a local business making and selling solarcookers is one way. Giving away the business to teenagers and starting another different business is even better. Starting some local currency may be even better. I’ve started growing local using http://www.squarefootgardening.com and I’m telling my friends and relatives; some listen more to this than to panflu prepping, yet the effect may add up.
Maybe shy fluwikians can start things not related to panflu, report back and network among us?
Maybe governments officials can network with colleagues and foster these things as community projects? Less expensive than preps, emotion-wise, yet it adds up! Just convene or help convene an open-space meeting and start designing a dream neighbourhood - the officials might “seed the dream” with some money: “we have this money, how would citizens use it?” While also asking for “zero cost ideas”!
lugon — everything I’ve learned and thought about doing for a pandemic (for the secondary disruptive effects, not the primary medical effects) seem closely related to ideas I have learned about it other areas: Peak Oil/Global warming (reduce need for fossil fuels); Tightwadding (living cheaply and conserving resources); Waldorf education (live the way our bodies were designed/evolved in nature); environmentalism (recycle, don’t pollute) and general overall health (eat locally produced fuits and veggies, whole less refined grains, etc.) OK it is an oversimplification but there’s a connection — what’s good for the environment is good for our bodies is good for our minds is cheaper. AND would help in a pandemic to boot! What’s not to like about that??
BUT it all takes more time! AND initial start up expense, maybe. And a supportive family/community.
MaMa: Uh oh — I don’t think you can use a solar oven in the winter in Canada. Have you thought about that? I think the rays of the sun are too shallow or something like that.
“Maybe not bad for “our” economy, but for “their” economy?” Bingo!
Local farmer’s marekts might be able to network with schools, there are various gardening groups ‘most every town…
And I bet lots of handy people locally could make caskets, if we want to waste the wood…hm… just shrouds? There’s the “green burials” movement…What about local burial societies?( we really need local preparation for pandemic, and have individuals get their affairs in order) though we can go “by the book” for most other local mass fatality events…just not a pandemic year.
The points above about public needs to know what to do with waste and what if toilets fail, certainly needs attention. Humanure handbook? Military “trench” advice? Sanitation plan and back-up plan for when current systems fail?
The public needs to be given a “Nursing the Pandemic Flu at Home” booklet to either print off their computer and keep or to pick up from their local town offices, doctors’ offices, etc.
There needs to be acknowledgement that most nursing will need to be done at home, and the public needs to have this information in their hands. Storing food and water will allow many to SIP, but knowledge of the home nursing needs brought on by this particular virus will enable many who become ill to survive. This aspect of a pandemic really cannot safely be underplayed, or delayed until the last moment.
To create such a home nursing guide, I would suggest that TPTB not recreate the wheel (as they tend to do). Instead, they should take advantage of the extensive work already done by Dr. Grattan Woodson and others, and build from there.
To ignore this need, to leave the population with nothing in their hands during the pandemic outbreak that would tell them what they should be doing to assist their ill loved ones, will cause the very kind of panic I think everyone wishes to avoid.
We need a “positive book club” here.
or a “Resiliance Book Club” ?
Red Cross 2 pg pdf Home Care for Pandemic Flu if this credible source were distributed now, the public would understand concern about “bird flu” hasn’t gone away, and, that they’d better prepare since they may not feel prepared to care for pandemic patients at home, but if the local officials do proper math attack rates (and something double-digit for fataltiy rates, and I’d say use current fatality rates for the infant to-age 30 or 40 set, at least) they would understand, and given rational things to do to prepare; buy what they use and use what they buy, just keep more on hand, figure out how they could check on each other or help without getting sick - some people managed that in 1918, (and figure out what practical things will happen next when people die) some of the learning curve and adjustment reactions would be out of the way now while supply chains, mental health care, law enforcement ect aren’t impacted by illness.
Yep - first “suggestion to give to TPTB for individual preps”: learn the facts, imagine the consequences, think of the first 5 things you want to do starting today
and maybe we can cooperatively create something (a booklet) and ask someone else (someone big) to endorse it?
I have found it helpful to think of accumulating preps according to _meals_, that is, to think of: “what does my family need for breakfast? For lunch? For dinner?” So looking at it that way, I’ve figured: Breakfast= milk/starch/fruit or: dry milk,easily stored oatmeal/grits/maltomeal and dried or canned fruit, sufficient for the day (for us, about 2 cans/day) I’ve then figured how many realistic servings are in each container — the large oatmeal lists 30, probably 25 realistically, or, for our family of 5, five day’s worth of breakfast starch. So a month’s worth of breakfast would be 60 cans fruit, 5 cannisters oatmeal and dry milk sufficient (I add it dry to the oatmeal, don’t mix it up as a beverage, 2 cups per cannister.)
So with dinner. I figure dinner is 1 meat or protien, 1 starch, 2 canned vegetables. The starches include pasta, rice, instant and canned potatoes. The meats include beans, pulses, canned fish and other meats. 1 to 2 cans of meat per dinner means approx 45 cans per month, with a pound of pasta or 2 cups dry rice per day, and 60 cans vegetables.
Lunch is midway between the two, with soups/mac/cheese and a fruit predominating.
I’ve also put together baking supplies for bread, spices, and plenty of cooking oils. Those factor into the “starches”.
I find this is most easily grasp-able way for me to get a handle on how much we need. I expect if ithings look like they are going to get tough, we are going to go to short rations and 2 meals a day rather than trying to keep things normal.
anon_22. In my opinon ‘individual preps’ can mean different things to different people. If they seem confused with the list. suggest you also include our web site, and ask them to look under ‘Pandemic Preparednes’.With all the fantastic info in the sub-sections, they would beable to select the most appropriate parts to suit their personnal needs. This site could also be useful to ‘newcomers’ on this forum.
Argyll.
In addition to these wonderful suggestions, can I now ask y’all next to put on your tinfoil hats and think like TPTB.
Here is the question, assume everything that you know about TPTB, whether you agree with them or not, whether you like them or not, suppose you are the policymaker with all the constraints that you know about or can imagine, how would that modify any of the suggestions given? Are there constraints that you think are valid enough for modification, or are there constraints that you think TPTB believe exist but in your opinion can be addressed or bypassed in a particular way?
These are useful discussions in and of themselves, so we know what we might expect from the government, eventually when they get their acts together.
Alan,
Thanks. I believe some of them already read our site, but some also want the opinion of those who have been doing this for a while.
anon_22 – at 12:22 In addition to these wonderful suggestions, can I now ask y’all next to put on your tinfoil hats and think like TPTB.
Here is the question, assume everything that you know about TPTB, whether you agree with them or not, whether you like them or not, suppose you are the policymaker with all the constraints that you know about or can imagine, how would that modify any of the suggestions given? Are there constraints that you think are valid enough for modification, or are there constraints that you think TPTB believe exist but in your opinion can be addressed or bypassed in a particular way?
These are useful discussions in and of themselves, so we know what we might expect from the government, eventually when they get their acts together.
The whole problem is that TPTB all seem to think and act alike. Constraints shouldn’t be there when the lives of millions of people are depending on them to tell them the truth
Heck, if you tell the watered down version, then nothing then what is currently “out there” will ever be printed.
Store two weeks worth of supplies instead of 12 weeks—the reasoning we assume behind that—panic, not enough in the stores with JIT delivery, overwhelming message, and fear that the message might actually be heard but the pandemic not happen soon enough to convince the public that truth and not parinoia is being spoken and tptb lose brownie points and ruin their careers.
TPTB are so concerned with saving face that nothing will ever truly be acomplished. They should just admit that they can’t handle it and refer people on to open flu prep sites.
have been thinking what would be the contraints. I don’t know that much about politics though so I’m probably way off bas.
constraints policymakers could be dealing with:
others?
anon_22 – at 12:22: Here is the question, assume everything that you know about TPTB, whether you agree with them or not, whether you like them or not, suppose you are the policymaker with all the constraints that you know about or can imagine, how would that modify any of the suggestions given?
I think you are thinking about normal, everyday constraints like PR, the economy. TPTB need to understand that those constraints are a luxury.
If we are talking about a pandemic influenza with a high CFR, the constraints are dictated by the virus. TPTB won’t like it, we won’t like it, but in the end we are talking about a problem that, once out of the box, will be “unmanageable.”
If we believe that the virus may dictate the terms later, we need to assess what that means as far as our necessary actions now. There is really no other realistic way to look at the problem. There is absolutely no other way to pro-actively deal with how to mitigate the potential crisis than to start at the “end” and then backtrack, building what is needed on the way. If TPTB do this, they will find that they will not be in a “normal” situation, and the customary “normal” approaches and constraints just will not apply. They need to start talking about this accurately now, to each other as policy makers and to the public.
As far as dictating terms, what I mean is that if there is a high CFR and a high transmisibliity (and high transmisibility is the definition of a pandemic) then people will stay home during any wave as much as possible, the schools will close. Business will suffer. There will be a critical shortage of HCW’s. Now, given those assumptions dictated by the virus, what next? Do you want people at home during a wave to be with or without food? And on it will go from there.
Americans don’t like to be dictated to. We won’t like what the virus dictates. But our policy makers have to adjust their usual assumptions of control and finess that they bring to a subject with this particular one. There’s plenty they can do, but what they need to do is already dictated clearly by what we will have to deal with later when pandemic H5N1 arrives. (There is no little lack of imagination about that). At this point, the biggest hurdle I see to effective policy being formulated is the simple lack of admission of the pickle that we are in on the part of TPTB and a few other components of people who should know better (like the public health community). Enough of the 0.01% CFR nonsense. Enough of thinking they will be able to finesse the econonmy like the Fed does with interest rates. If you are going to plan for a crisis, you had better admit to the kind of crisis you are facing or everything you do will add up to no more than spinning your wheels. They need a crisis plan. But so far they are acting like there is no crisis on the horizon, and the unsettling thing is that the highest level meetings full of people who know what H5N1 is doing, and what it can do, don’t seem to be planning for a very severe crisis.
There’s a lot to be done. A great deal of good can be done if it is done now. Admitting to the magnitude of the potential problem, and admitting that they won’t be able to handle it in any way when it arrives, is the beginning of figuring out what they need to tell the public. The constraints are already dictated, they are dictated by H5N1. I don’t like it, you don’t like it, but let’s deal with the reality. This time, the constraints are not ours and we need to help our citizens plan accordingly if we want to be able to pick up the pieces later.
anon_22 @ 12:22 - “Here is the question, assume everything that you know about TPTB, whether you agree with them or not, whether you like them or not, suppose you are the policymaker with all the constraints that you know about or can imagine, how would that modify any of the suggestions given?”
When I posted my suggestions on Nov 6, @ 19:36 for stockpiling for a 12 week period, I stated, “A stockpile for 3 months certainly may not be necessary because a pandemic wave should be about 8 weeks duration. However, probably we will all need to help someone, and once a wave is over, everything will be in short supply. A two month supply would be mandatory, but a three month supply would help get us all through in better shape.”
I still really think a 12 week stockpile would be a much better choice that 8 weeks, also because another wave will surely come. However, if TPTB just can’t come to grips with suggesting 12 weeks, an 8 week stockpile is absolutely mandatory! When people suddenly realize 3–4 weeks into the pandemic what they might really need for food etc, they can start to ration.
So, after TBTP suggest either 8 or 12 weeks, they must indicate another wave or waves would come. Then TPTB should suggest to possibly have some extra on hand. This will alert those who are cautious. Minimalists probably won’t care.
I also did not suggest a different means to purify water (like a Big Berkey) other than a means to boil water. I felt that would be a serious problem for everyone to manage. However, if everyone can have a fuel supply (propane, wood, etc) with which to boil water, that will suffice (chlorox does not kill Crypto). The fuel supply should be greatly emphasized (for cooking, boiling water, and heat). That can’t be said enough!
The biggest constraint IMHO is probably going to be those on welfare benefits. Cos whatever the government recommends, it represents what the government thinks is necessary to ensure the safety of the public. However many weeks of preps, the question still arises, where is the money for those on welfare? Are they supposed to go with even less now in order to prepare, or does the government have plans for delivering aid if and when necessary? If that’s what they intend to do, then these plans need to be as transparent as possible to reassure people that they are not going to be abandoned by the government. Too much transparency or too much reassurance, however, may breed complacency, so that people don’t do even those things that they can do. It’s a tough choice, I think.
Extra money is also going to be needed to provide for the extra healthcare burdens from pandemic patients, especially those with no insurance. I don’t know a lot about how HMO’s or healthcare providers would figure on this whole pandemic situation. Would they cover such illnesses? If yes, can they, without going bankrupt? Most hospitals or healthcare providers operate on very thin margins on a good day. Where would the money come from?
I raise this issue because when you think of possibly using public funds to stockpile for low income families, immediately you can think of a lot more areas that deserve extra funding just as much as this. Most of the currently allocated funds have gone to vaccines, and I’m not even going to debate whether that’s a good idea.
Just to clarify. I’m playing devil’s advocate here. It’s always useful to try on someone else’s shoes even if you don’t like them. It is always useful if you work in sales to anticipate the customner’s objections, and have answers ready. :-)
Most people are only interested in what I call “cocktail party conversation” about a subject. No matter how interesting the subject is, when people ask about it they really only want a 30 second summary. You know the moment - someone says “what was it like living in Vladivostok?” They really don’t want to hear about infrastructure problems or sucesses in secondary waste water treatment. They want to hear “Great! My apartment had no heat but the beaches were beautiful!”
So, with thanks to Edna Mode and Laura B, here’s what I would write if I were Uncle Sam:
You should be prepared to be self sufficient in your house for a minumum of six weeks. If you are able, prepare for 3 months.
I’d just like to add that after a year of hanging around here and hearing lots of great ideas, much of the advice given doesn’t work for my particular situation. Everyone has different resources and needs. Therefore, my list is quite general, to get people thinking “how does this apply to ME?”
(“how does this apply to ME?” -if you need to go shop for food you might not be able to get out and, there might be nothing to buy, -if you need to call 911 there might be no fire or police or EMT that can come help you, - if your minor or twenty-something family member catches pandemic they might die slowly and horribly of ARDS…)
Admitting tptb can’t keep up their side of the social contract during scope of a deadly pandemic year doesn’t mean “they lose”, but, if they don’t catch up on honest communication and community preparation for NPI and contingency coping, (party like it’s been Phase 4 all year, and for all we know, Phase 5 in some unwatched place in Africa or Asia right now) outraged people who see the risk was diligently downplayed and now cannot prepare, will not easily consent to be governed (by current ptb, anyway) during and post-pandemic, and, dead people participate in no economies, nor do they grow food and run power grids and provide health care for millionaires and billionaires, govts, militaries, ect, we all lose; we need functioning healthy populaces to be able to have a Recovery’.
(ok, so I got the bold and italics mixed up in that last bit; strike that, reverse it, thankyou…)
Average Concerned Mom at 8:11, ‘MaMa: Uh oh — I don’t think you can use a solar oven in the winter in Canada. Have you thought about that? I think the rays of the sun are too shallow or something like that.’
We have thought about that, it may not be possible after all. Only one way to find out right?
I talked to my kids about the possibility of it not working right now and they want to try it anyway. We’re approaching it as an experiment for now: we’ll record temperatures reached and local weather conditions to see what is possible with different set-ups in different conditions. The worst thing that could happen is that we can’t cook much or anything til spring- if so at least we’ll be ready with all of our ‘gear’:-)
Individual Prepping - Stages of Acceptance and Investment
In talking with folks about individual preparation I have tried to give them stages of preparation that they could initiate that matched their level of acceptance of the risk and the value in preparing.
Stage One Preparations: All risk preparations for relatively short duration (3 days - 2 weeks) that would help them get through a wide variety of events including power outages, storms, floods etc.). This approach relies on the relatively high number of events that individually may be low probablity but together present a fairly high likelihood of occurence. It is also intended as more of a foot in the door conceptually for the many who have not even considered preparation for any kind of emergency.
Stage Two Preparations: General Preparations for a longer duration (6–12 weeks) that would be needed if a more generalized event such as a severe pandemic disrupted basic services and led to both shortages and sporadic societal disruptions. Within this category I encourage people who are reluctant or lack resources to at least stock a 12 week supply of inexpensive basics of the rice&beans variety that would assist in basic/minimal survival without investing in a higher level of more comfortable survival that a broader diet and more intensive preparation would provide. Similarly, I encourage filling in the basic/minimal survival level for this longer period on the other items already mentioned above in other posts - especially those that will eventually be used in normal everyday living (it is not money wasted - only one-time money spent to build a buffer or cushion that you can then maintain.)
Stage Three Preparations: Include those items that are more specifically related to preparing for a pandemic influenza like n-95 or n-100 masks, disposable gloves, etc.; drugs and herbal approaches to treatment of flu symptoms This level of investment, on things that are essentially sunk costs, is the most difficult to convince people to engage in and in my experience the last to occur in any quantity.
What I have found is that if you once get their feet on the path, many continue to walk it much further than their originally intended goal - as their awareness and understanding increase.
In thinking about what TPTB should tell people, its hard to give advice if there is no goal. I have seen no information on what the U.S. government considers “prepared.” Does it meant the 80% of all households should be able to be self sufficient for 1 month? If we all have an N-95 mask and a course of Tamiflu are we “ready?”
I have only one suggestion/statement for TPTB. If I have heeded the advice of my government and prepared my family to face a disaster then I want you to leave my family and my preps alone. I didn’t spend all this time and effort to share what I have with those who failed to heed your warnings or scoffed at them. I prepped to protect those I love who live under my roof or whom I have offered shelter to, not the rest of the world and you don’t have the moral right to take that away from them just because others did not prepare. So stay off of my property and leave my preps be, that way they can go to whom they were intended for. If I have extra, trust me to be human enough to share what I can while still looking out for those I love. Make annual flu vaccinations mandatory and available to everyone. Do more to prevent this killer than you are doing, not just because we fear H5N1 going pandemic, but because it is always a killer every year.
anon_22 – at 14:24 Just to clarify. I’m playing devil’s advocate here. It’s always useful to try on someone else’s shoes even if you don’t like them. It is always useful if you work in sales to anticipate the customner’s objections, and have answers ready. :-)
I can’t do it. I really do understand why they are not telling the whole truth for all the varied reasons of economics, fear of panic…. but I don’t approve or agree with it.
Better a panic now when everyone is healthy and can work overtime, hire more workers, up production now. I know that not all people will or be able to prep for 3 months or longer but they still need to be told the truth so they can prepare as much as possible NOW. They won’t have the choice or the option later. That will be pre-meditated murder and all TPTB who go along with this regardelss of nationality will be equally to blame. How can they look at themselves in the mirror and continue to live with themselves.
We have choices to make. My choice first and always is to harm none. To withhold and put information out to the public that is incomplete is just as bad as putting false information out there. That is not honor.
As to the sales process. Another process of sales is to ask questions, find out their needs and desires, what is important to them and then supply it and you have a lot less objections to begin with.
Sahara – at 15:09
I have to agree with you that personally I find it very hard to give specific advice to people on this, rather some guidelines as to how to think about it.
I also think that whatever we say here and decide for ourselves, it may be quite hard to seel the case for immediately getting to 3 months, for all the reasons that have been discussed. So the way you present it might be a good alternative.
What if they do a sliding scale, eg preparing for 3 months would give you the best or most comfortable safety margin, but if circumstances do not allow that, aim at 6 weeks first. Even 2 weeks if that is all you can do right now. The most important thing is to start, since we don’t know when a pandemic might happen. If if happens soon, having 2 weeks of essentials is better than not having any. Once you’ve got the basic 2 weeks taken care of, then move to 6 weeks, then 12 weeks. Don’t stop until you get to 12 weeks.
Or something like that.
I agree with Into the Woods – at 15:45
What I have found is that if you once get their feet on the path, many continue to walk it much further than their originally intended goal - as their awareness and understanding increase.
TPTB may want to take a page from the Florida hurricane preparedness and plans as outlined by our state government.
Basically a hurricane is considered an act of nature/God that cannot be controlled by “government.” They freely admit that they cannot and will not be able to be out during certain parts of a storm so families need to be prepared to take care of themselves during that time and under certain circumstances for “x” amount of time afterwards. There is an educational/media program that goes on through out the year on hurricane preparedness which generally ramps up really high right before the beginning of each hurricane season.
The same type of message could be from TPTB concerning a pandemic event:
1. Being that a pandemic is an naturally occuring event, it cannot be totally controlled by any governmental agency.
2. During certain periods of a pandemic event families will have to be self-reliant, possibly for extended periods of time.
3. They could limit their “liability” by instituting educational and media programs to address exactly what “prep items” to stock up on. Do so now will allow people time to make their own effort and if they don’t they have no one to blame but themselves.
There are other, more detailed comparisons that can be made, and of course nothing is going to be perfect … but its not like it is something that has to be created from the ground up. There are enough preparedness programs … educational and media … out there that they can build on something existing.
IF people refuse to follow through on their own responsibilities, then it is their own necks.
As far as “welfare recipients” go … there is no longer such as thing in my experience with the system as 100% subsidized living any longer. At least in the state of Florida I guess I should add. All recipients are expected to contribute to their livelihoods in some way … whether that is a job, forcing the fathers of children to provide financial support (collected by the state on behalf of the children), application for SSI and similar disability payments (which they are required to have paid into at some point in their lives or they don’t qualify), etc.
An adjustment can be made in the sliding scale calculations so that clients/subsidy recipients are expected to set sums of money aside for prepping. For instance, in Section 8 and public housing there is a scale that indicates, based on household income, the proportion of the rent that a client is expected to pay. I believe that some time this fiscal year ALL such clients will be expected to pay at least a certain portion of their rent … I believe it will be like $50.
Or, another way of doing this would be to adjust their subsidies so that food stamps or WIC are specifically earmarked for prep foods and cannot be spent on other items.
Those are just a couple of options open to helping people receiving subsidies.
As for those individuals who chose to “fly below the radar” … in our area mostly young males, immigrants, and a portion of the homeless population … there is both freedom and risk in that choice.
We will not be able to force everyone … anyone? … to prep who is not so inclined. Unfortunate but true. I don’t think it is necessary to say though that just because someone’s primary income source is a subsidy, that they are incapable of prepping or that TPTB are incapable of “encouraging” them to prep without some kind of ramification to an already over burdened system.
Kathy in FL – at 22:44
Is there a case for not giving extra help to welfare recipients in this case? If yes, how would you make the case?
I’m not debating this, really asking a question as I don’t know the US system nor concepts underlying it. Thanks.
I mean, how would you make the case in the context of social contract or duty of care? That normally there is some unspoken assumption that society does need to take care of those in the most dire straits, even if that care is at a very low standard.
anon_22 – at 22:53
Again, TPTB can follow an existing protocol that “works.” In the event of an emergency/hurricane Florida does not give priority to anyone other than the elderly who are unable to care for themselves. Even then there may be exceptions.
Although I suppose those 100% in the physical care of the state … such as prisons and mental hospitals … also qualify.
Beyond this, there is a case-by-case judgement based on existing standards … similar to the 911 system.
As for subsidy recipients, in a certain sense you could say that their “social contract/duty of care” is already on-going. A hurricane/pandemic does not necessarily alter the degree of “duty to care.” The state and client/recipient are already under contract to one another … the state/system provides “x” so long as client is in need based on existing standards. The state doesn’t suddenly become more or less responsible because of some outside influence, especially one that could be considered an “act of God or nature.”
While I understand there is a natural desire to take care of those who cannot take care of themselves, that is not necessarily the correct definition of all subsidy recipients. Subsidy recipients should be considered some sub-species or culture incapable of contributing to their own care and society in general in a positive way.
Subsidies are meant to be temporary, not life-long commitments. We are not talking about assistance based on mental incapacity. We are talking about assistance for a temporary financial set back … for instance in today’s system a client is expectedly to eventually work their way out of. By the time most Section 8 recipients have their last child turn 18, they are off the housing role, unless it can be shown that they are physically or mentally (not financially)incapable of self-support.
It isn’t a perfect system by any means, but it would certainly allow for TPTB to NOT be forced into mandatory assistance just because someone received a subsidy of some type.
But again, my experience has been in FL and some other states may very well run their programs differently.
But the bottom line is if you remove families with adults who are capable … and expected … to contribute to their own support from the list of individuals that the state would have some kind of extended “duty to care” responsibility for during a pandemic, you would significantly decrease the extra dollars need to effect the “duty to care.” And in most cases, those who would remain in the “duty to care” list are already going to be cared for, or should be in the planning stages for … prisoners, residents of state run hospitals, permanent residents of VA hospitals, etc.
ACCKKK! That should be “Subsidy recipients should NOT be considered some sub-species or culture incapable of contributing to their own care and society in general in a positive way.”
Good gravy … used spell checker and hit delete the word by mistake. My apologies.
Kathy in FL – at 23:16
Thank you! Very well explained indeed.
I did read it that way! I guess we unconsciously fill in the meaning from the big picture…
I’d say in the event of a severe pandemic, the government’s primary duty of care is to keep the infrastructure up, maintain order, (distribute vaccines and medications) and also to provide for those directly in its care (i.e. prisons, government-run mental institutions, etc.)
If possible, during a pandemic the government should try really, really hard to help those least able to help themselves, but this should not be a given.
Everyone should be clear on this from the start, so there are no surprises.
Prior to a pandemic, the government’s major responsibility is to provide information to people who do not have the means or resources to get that information for themselves; and to share both what we know and what we don’t know and can’t control. The other responsibility is to be the moral compass, urging people to think first of themselves and their families; but thereafter, to lend a hand to those who will need help.
Sharing information means saying things like:
We don’t know how long disruption may last, but it could be for a long time, even 3 months or more. We don’t know what it will be like, but it is possible people may lose their water or their electricity, and gas for trucks to bring in food may be in short supply; or workers may be too ill to do their jobs. We will have problems, but we don’t know which ones. We will try to help people as much as possible but we can’t guarantee this help.
Being a moral compass means saying things like:
A society is judged by how it cares for its weakest members. In a pandemic the natural tendency will be to withdraw, to turn away from those who may carry infection. This is normal. But prior to a pandemic, we must turn to our neighbor, our friends, to those living in the poorest areas, to help them organize, plan and prepare.
Absolutely, the government should find some money to help those on welfare and food stamps lay in some reasonable preps, but I’m afraid for many, the logistical challenges of regular life are tough enough; many will need more help than just money will provide; and our churches and volunteer organizations will need to step in and do what they can. In the end, though, you can only help people who are able to be helped, and it is a cold hard fact of life that people who on a good day are homeless or get their only meals from institutions, whether a soup kitchen on an elementary school, are not going to fare well during a pandemic year.
But the fact that not everyone will be able to prepare for a long period of time is no reason not to tell them it is urgent to do so.
I agree with everything Kathy in FL wrote! Just took me longer to write it. (-:
And to something anon_22 wrote:
“Cos whatever the government recommends, it represents what the government thinks is necessary to ensure the safety of the public.”
I think no matter what the government recommends, there’s no guarantee that following that recommendation will ensure the public’s safety.
I think they should stock the nations food shelves. With two weeks worth of bare bones essentials for every welfare family in that district. If the pandemic does not come to pass these comodities can be distributed throughout the comming year. This will also increase distribution sites for any other disaster. Each location will recieve a grant and a supply list. As well as an additional shipment of comodities. You cannot expect persons who are that impoverished to adaquetly prepare for a disaster. By going this route the TPTB insures some liquidity of assets by enabeling them to be used as needed for a variety of disasters and they could offset further supply shipments if they are not needed.
Is it feasible to ask all businesses to increase their inventory level for that purpose? Would it be possible for government to give tax incentives eg on extra warehousing for that to happen?
It feels to me like you people are thinking abt trying to maintain current luxurious standards - 22 - were you in England during WW2 and after - RATIONING for EVERYBODY!! Hell, even in 1954 we had ration cards for candy!! If people lower their expectations/standard of living and be prepared to manage with less, and get properly prepared, then we will do just fine. If your conscience bothers you about the homeless/welfare recipients, then give generously NOW to the food banks! I just get SO exasperated here sometimes!! What part of ‘YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN’ dont we understand??!!
Question on the food banks, which I have seen mentioned often as a potential solution to pandemic: Don’t they distribute what they have? Meaning, if I were to contribute $1k this week, they would buy food and give it out. There wouldn’t be any left in two weeks or four weeks or four months.
Now, if someone gave the local office a million, they might have some left over. But in my area, it’s my understanding that they ALWAYS have less than needed and do not stockpile food, nor do they have space to do so.
Maybe different areas handle this differently, but here, a contribution to the food bank (which I support) means more people have food today. It does not help for the future.
The idea being that poor people could PREP if the goods were in the food banks! Yeah - there might not be enough - but maybe there wd be ‘some’
Hi gharris - it would certainly help. And education about the need to store food would help. But if you and your family are hungry now it will be hard to put food away for the future, and the food banks may not have capacity to store food for later. That’s all I meant in bringing up on the topic. Maybe food banks elsewhere are organized differently than in my area, I’m not an expert on this topic.
Contributing to food banks is a food thing, especially if we have extra food stored while others don’t have enough to eat today.
The govs need to accept and tell they are part of society - a bit like google and fluwikie and each of us are part of the internet - some players are bigger than others, but we’re all players.
Once they accept that, their role is, as has been said above:
The first two points have been covered. My third point means each “territory” should know that inside that territory there are say 10% people who don’t have money for even 1 week, etc. Then people can start stocking up for themselves and also keep an eye on the others: “you’re only as prepared as your neighbour” (quoting Goju from memory).
This is a complex situation. (Complex as in not simple like tic-tac-toe, not complicated like chess, but complex as in chess with neurotic pawns and queens with inferiority.)
Complex situations cannot be “solved”, but just “danced with”. We need lots of information flowing (what’s going on with the virus, who would need what), and some general guidance: the sliding scale.
I meant “queens with inferiority complex”.
the great society stuff people take for granted, and in many cases have come to depend on, didn’t exist in 1918. it’s arguable whether it works in the absense of a worldwide or national crisis. folks that expect the govt to provide on a daily basis will likely be just as surprised/disappointed as those expecting govt to come to the rescue. forget govt programs - govt itself is looking a bit iffy.
You know, the other thing we need to examine is the constitutionality of what we are saying TPTB are responsible for.
Now, I can see how our argument might be seen from the USofA constitution. That document is what all of our laws are based on and outlines the ultimate responsibility of the federal government. As well, each state has their own constitution outlining the responsibilities at state level.
But out the US government works is considerably different than how some other governments work.
For instance, in countries that are socialist and/or communist, would they not be legally more responsible for their citizenry? Their whole system works differently.
Those differences will significantly impact how we approach the various TPTB with regard to their personal responsibilities toward their citizenry.
c3jmp – at 06:58 : folks that expect the govt to provide on a daily basis will likely be just as surprised/disappointed as those expecting govt to come to the rescue. forget govt programs
I agree with c3jmp. If government is paralyzed into inaction now because it does not have many good solutions about how to handle those on gov’t assistance programs during this crisis, and they can see that will be a problem, then that problem, if seen clearly, dictates part of their answer. If gov’t won’t be able to handle the people it already has on its assistance programs, the last thing it needs to do is to ensure those numbers will grow.
To keep the total numbers of people the government will need to assist during a pandemic down, government must do what it can to get as many people who are able to prepare on their own to do so now. Otherwise, the roles of those needing assistance will grow from 10% to 90%. Thinking that they can’t equitably handle the probelm at 10%, and doing nothing as a result with the other 90% of the population, is not an acceptable nor logical path to follow.
They need to communicate now to those who are able to stockpile that they can and should do so. That includes food & water & fuel as others have so well documented above. That also means that physcians should be issued a directive now to prescribe Tamiflu, amantadines, and antibiotics to their clients who ask them to because, yet again, each individual that the gov’t urges and allows to prepare on its own will be one more individual who will not become the government’s responsibility. To get serious about this, perhaps those in charge should envision the large crowds awaiting food & water & Tamiflu distribution that they will have to deal with later. They need to put into effect policies now that will remove as many people from those flu-ridden crowds as possible.
The gov’t will need to assist some people, but there are many others who could do that work themselves if the need to do so is clearly communicated by the government. It will be really dumb if people in places like Goju’s town who could have stockpiled the necessary food, water, fuel, and Tamiflu, did not do so simply because people in power kept tellling them that it was not necessary. Well, that would not be dumb, actually, it would be tragic.
A letter of apology for their lack of transparency in with their personal effects.
Bare bones prep recommendation for survival of 1st wave:
Water - 2 weeks in storage, 1 gallon of sodium hypochlorite (bleach) in storage for disinfection of raw water, begin saving old cola, juice and milk bottles to be filled at the beginning of the pandemic (enough for an additional 10 weeks).
Food - 12 weeks in storage (2 weeks refrigerated/frozen “normal” food requiring heating, 5 weeks dry foods such as beans, rice and pasta requiring heating, and 5 weeks of ready to eat canned/packaged food not requiring heating)
Toiletries - 12 weeks in storage
Heat source for cooking - 5 weeks worth
Medicines - sufficient for 12 weeks
1 liter/quart of hand sanitizer (60% alcohol), 1 box (100) latex/nitrile gloves
24 Heavy duty garbage bags for storge of garbage in house
Kathy in FL – at 07:41: For instance, in countries that are socialist and/or communist, would they not be legally more responsible for their citizenry? Their whole system works differently…..Those differences will significantly impact how we approach the various TPTB with regard to their personal responsibilities toward their citizenry.
You’ve hit a very big nail on the head there. In the realm of philosophy, the difference in these two approaches comes down to whether a particular governmental system adheres to a “positive rights” or a “negative rights” approach.
We here in the U.S. have a system that is based mostly on “negative rights.” Our Constitution lays out what government cannot do to us - it says we are to be free from government influence - the “negative” right we have not to be messed with. It sets out many checks and balances to make sure that we will remain in control of our right to have government “not” (thus the “negative”) enter many areas of our lives.
In other places, and at the U.N., a different system based mostly on “positive rights” is preferred. A “positive rights” philosophy claims that individuals have rights to certain things and should be able to expect them from their governments. These things typically include such goods as food, housing, health care, and education.
You can tell which right, positive or negative, someone is talking about easily. If they use the words “the right to” they are speaking of positive rights. If they use the words “the right to be free of” they are speaking of negative rights. All countries are a mix of these two philosophies, although it is not an easy mix, and invariably one philosophy predominates. In practicality in this debate it would come down to an argument about perhaps whether the government should provide you with rice & beans so that you can prepare for a pandemic or whether the government should keep its hands off your rice & beans once you’ve stocked them in your pantry to prepare for a pandemic. The two philosophies usually lead to very different types of actions by the countries or entities that adhere to them. There’s constant tension, too, about the fact that one person’s “positive right” often interferes with another person’s “negative right” (i.e. particularly in the area of economics/taxation where a good often has to be extracted from one person, in violation of that individual’s negative rights, in order to provide for another individual’s positive rights). It’s all very clear in the world of philosophy, and very messy in the real world.
gharris – at 01:45 It feels to me like you people are thinking abt trying to maintain current luxurious standards - 22 - were you in England during WW2 and after - RATIONING for EVERYBODY!! Hell, even in 1954 we had ration cards for candy!! If people lower their expectations/standard of living and be prepared to manage with less, and get properly prepared, then we will do just fine. If your conscience bothers you about the homeless/welfare recipients, then give generously NOW to the food banks! I just get SO exasperated here sometimes!! What part of ‘YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN’ dont we understand??!!
:-) I know, I get exasperated too. This exercise is not about how you and I think, but about how TPTB might have to consider all the objections the rest of society, aka people other than us, might throw at them and how to counter those objections. The ability to anticipate and address objections will make it more likely that TPTB will come up with recommendations that you and I will find acceptable.
“people in power kept telling them that it was not necessary. Well, that would not be dumb, actually, it would be tragic” Could it even be argued in court that it is illegal? (Now I meant; won’t be very possible during pandemic, ha ha.)
HHS Sec Leavitt, Pandemic Plan overview: …”One of the most important public health issues our Nation and the world faces is the threat of a global disease outbreak called a pandemic.”…”Being prepared and responding effectively involves everyone: individuals, communities, businesses, States, Federal agencies, international countries and organizations. Here at home, we can use this Plan to create a seamless preparedness network where we are all working together for the benefit of the American people. “… “ If together we take the steps necessary, we will be able to save the lives of millions of people “ …”Adequate planning for a pandemic requires the involvement of every level of our nation, and indeed, the world. The ubiquitous nature of an influenza pandemic compels federal, state and local governments, communities, corporations, families and individuals to learn about, prepare for, and collaborate in efforts to slow, respond to, mitigate, and recover from a potential pandemic. The development, refinement, and exercise of pandemic influenza plans by all stakeholders are critical components of preparedness.
This document, the HHS Pandemic Influenza Plan, serves as a blueprint for all HHS pandemic influenza preparedness planning and response activities. This plan updates the August ‘2004 draft HHS Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Plan and features important additions and refinements”…
S10-III D. “Risk communication strategies such as dilemma-sharing and acknowledging uncertainty can help establish appropriate and balanced messages”…
“Appendix 1. Background Information for Developing Communications Messages about Pandemic Influenza”…”Illness and death may be much higher during a pandemic than during annual seasonal community influenza outbreaks; pandemics can also occur in waves over several months. It could take many months to develop an effective pandemic influenza vaccine and immunize substantial numbers of people. Antiviral medications for treatment or prevention of pandemic influenza could have an important interim role, but may also be in short supply.” (here is it Nov 2006 and our local health dept nor govenor, ect, are not getting any of these messages out to the public, nor telling them to prepare as much as they can afford to.)
Fluwikian : “Prior to a pandemic, the government’s major responsibility is to provide information to people who do not have the means or resources to get that information for themselves; and to share both what we know and what we don’t know and can’t control”
Preamble to US Constitution; “We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”
One of my state officials speechified that the goal is “to look back and say Massachusetts did everything it could”; well it is forgetting to inform and educate the public about how long pandemic is, how deadly H5N1 currently is, and tell them to plan community contingency plans, stock up essentials against the supply chain disrutions Congress, and hopefully the state pandemic summits, have had so much testimony about.
crfullmoon – at 08:42
and the people also aren’t being advised just how uncertain the post-pandemic period may be. getting power, fuel for vehicles, perhaps the phone system and Internet - all back online in the aftermath… isn’t likely to be a simple task. when there isn’t a coomunication system to coordinate bringing the grid back up - it may take quite a while before stores have power, much less food - getting our tightly coupled infrastructure back online won’t happen fast. if it happens. that’s the dark folks don’t talk about much.
crfullmoon - at 8:42
Yeah, it certainly seems like some entities in our government have made very forceful statements about the requirement to prepare for this pandemic. Where, exactly, is the place that this clear communication has been simply dumped at the side of the road?
It is not as if we were facing the problem that ALL out government is in the dark and in denial. It is almost more frustrating because SOME of our government, specifically those on the state & local level who have to implement the policy, are taking a “don’t worry, be happy” stance.
Some risk commucator needs to quickly get in there and figure out what went wrong with disseminating this message. They assumed state and local governments would take action. They haven’t.
Many people have complained about how much money Leavitt has spent flying around to the various state pandemic conferences. I’d rather that the journalists writing up that story concentrated instead on how Leavitt spent all that time and money only to see 95% of his efforts wasted and his message forgotten, and on my state’s pandemic web site, officially ignored.
and 95% of whatever locals thought their priorities were, they’re going to think that money wasted getting blindsided by a pandemic - money parents raised for schools enrichment or interior decorating - while they don’t even know their kids are at risk of dying if pandemic breaks out.
All sort of stuff currently on political speeches, and municipal meeting agendas, is going to look tragic, and, stupid, (and outrageous) in retrospect.
I was thinking exactly that when reading about the incredibly rancorous Board of Ed meetings my town has been holding recently about buying land for a new school, etc. It’s like you want to say, “uh…hey…fellas…anyone noticed that Godzilla has just walked into the room…maybe we should deal with him first..”
Da-da-duh-dum… Da-dA-duh-dum: … “History shows AGAIN and AGAIN how nature points out the FOLLY of MAANNNN. GODZILLA!”…
I like the message to be simple:
We recommend a Personal Safety Stockpile - we said before You Are On Your Own
Save to Personal Stockpile by buying 1–2 extra days of non-perishables every week you go grocery shopping. In one year, you will have accumulated 52–104 days stockpile. Any time during that ‘savings’ period we lower the threat level, you can stop accumulating and start consuming.
Then teach this at school. Depending on the grade, we can use examples of squirrels or economic models.
Poster/billboard/pamphlet/TV:
Have you started your Personal Safety Stockpile yet?
or Personal Shelter Stockpile
Perhaps instead of instructions to prep, people need advice on how to survive without preps?
The minimum amount of food and water a person can survive on per day. recommended books for edible funghi and wild plants. How to catch fish with a bent hook and a bit of cotton. Natural alternatives to medicines. How to make a fire from funiture and books. How to recycle unrine for drinking water. etc
The final message - ALTERNATIVELY YOU COULD JUST GET PREPARED.
A lot of people get into public positions out of ideals. They truly believe they can make a difference. And they do usually … just not necessarily in the way they expected to.
Even as they mature in their positions … assuming they don’t become handicapped by cynicism based on experience … those ideals can still get in the way of taking action. What I mean is they want a panacea or a plan to fit all needs and are unwilling to accept that there are sectors and individuals who through their own choices are not particularly help-able.
For instance, you have the good “stranger danger” programs for kids and adults (particularly women) … but you still have hundreds that make poor behavioral choices every day even “knowing” what they’ve been taught. Some are tragically killed because of this. On the other hand, we don’t know how many have actually be “saved” by this information and training. Because the programs haven’t completely stopped the problem, does that mean we should stop the programs? No.
For decades now we’ve had various programs attempting to stop the tide of drug use/abuse around the world. Have we? No … but that doesn’t mean we stop trying.
Every year Florida spends thousands (millions?) on hurricane preparedness education and training. Does every household, regardless of financial ability, prepare? No. But you won’t find Florida stopping its campaign to get every household prepared.
TPTB should look at pandemic information dissemination in the same way. The message should go out. It should be forceful and reasonable. They must accept that not everyone will prepare. They must accept that they are not responsible for every household that does not prepare. They must not turn away from the job of information dissemination though because some WILL listen. They must not fear the backlash from those that have refused to prepare … you will always have those individuals. They must stick with their constitutional responsibilities to their citizenry and anything that they can do above and beyond that … after the original responsibilities have been met … will be “gravy.”
For instance, would the US federal government’s responsibility in regulating and maintaining interstate commerce cover the power grid? It now appears to be an interstate commodity from what I understand. Could the federal government not step in and demand and require that the power grid be solidified and protected from the consequences of a pandemic under the guise of their constitutional responsibilities? They same could be true of most fuel sources … as part of the interstate commerce issue.
Couldn’t US state governments require of their public health care a certain level of preparedness?
Heck Florida already regulates the heck out of most professions requiring a lot of testing, licensing and inspections. Why not use that same force to address preparedness … if you don’t do x, y, or z you license to practice in our state is going to be pulled … whether that is a professional license or occupational license. FL already requires proof of insurance to maintain your driving license, most mortgage companies requires proof of home owners insurance or they will find it for you and bill you. Why not apply those existing concepts to prepping?
I’m not sure how to apply them … but giving they already exist, its not like you are having to re-invent the wheel or anything.
The issue of how many weeks a community or city is affected should be preparing to be self-sufficient needs to be based on empirical data.
“The computer simulations are part of the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) research network funded by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS), a component of the National Institutes of Health. The overall goal is to develop computational models of disease spread that will aid the development of effective control strategies.” from MIDAS press release.
The MIDAS Global Epidemic Model animation is available in plots that show the estimated spread of H5N1. Their model (wihich requires a Java applet to be installed, be patient) predicts the pandemic to affect densly populated cities the most. Every one of the curves (waves of infection) is at least 60 days. Some cities are expected to have less severity but the wave is longer (probably due to prevention measures, Targeted Layered Containment).
US Seasonal Flu Activity is available on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website. Looking at the Summaries for the Weekly Surveilance Reports you can see that weeks 1–15 are peak activity for the year.
Infections in a single household will certainly be shorter depending on the number of people in the home (1–2 weeks? data anyone?). Should prepartions for sheltering in place be based on household infection (2 weeks) or community waves 8–15 weeks)? Leaders would be wise to issue advice based on facts. We live in communities and dependant on many people to get through the needs of life (remember Maslow?). 2 weeks is short sighted. 8 weeks sounds like a more realistic minimum period of time to recommend to minimize liability and community instability. We pay a lot of taxes to collect this data, now would be a good time to use it wisely.
For decades now we’ve had various programs attempting to stop the tide of drug use/abuse around the world. Have we? No … but that doesn’t mean we stop trying.
If it doesn’t work - try something different. ;)
Kathy in FL @12:34 - Every year Florida spends thousands (millions?) on hurricane preparedness education and training. Does every household, regardless of financial ability, prepare? No. But you won’t find Florida stopping its campaign to get every household prepared.
Great point. Everyone always uses Florida as either the poster child or whipping boy of preparedness. I don’t live near Florida, so I feel it is unfair for me to use your state to make my points. My state would probably be the same if we were ever tested - some victories, some shameful lapses. We all feel that it is wrong when well-to-do people line up for water after seven days of warnings to be prepared. The TV stations make a big deal of this. I have to wonder how many people actually heed the warnings, read the recommendations and ARE prepared? I have a feeling its a lot. If a good proportion of households weren’t prepared, those lines would be much longer, the death toll higher, and the TV crews would be concentrating on worse catastrophies. I don’t know how many households are prepared, but I imagine the state of Florida does. I’d be interested to know.
At a national level, the US has soloists on the pandemic message, and I would like to hear the choir. Florida has a choir, and they’ve used it to great advantage. Then, how many people have to be prepared for the message to be considered sucessful? This gets back to Anon-22′s questions about the disadvantaged. If 80% of the population is prepared, then the government can concentrate on those that aren’t. To get 80% of households prepared, the folks in power need one voice, in sustained chorus, for as long as it takes to drive the message home. You need to deliver the message, measure its effectiveness, and deliver it again.
You can’t put the roof on until the foundation is designed and built. The foundation has to be getting most of the households in this country to a certain level of self sufficiency. Then you can talk about how to help those who can’t or won’t help themselves. But FEMA and the CDC and Homeland Security have barely started to design the foundation, let alone build it.
Have I used enough painful metaphors yet? I think I have. See you tomorrow.