You know, I kept thinking we won’t need a part 2, despite the thread getting longer and longer. But no, the interest is undying, events are still unravelling, and, as Dem would say, “It get’s curiouser and curiouser.”
Last post:
Sniffles – at 21:13
Comments from EffectMeasure on the situation:
Bloggers catch US State Dept. on bird flu preps Category: Bird flu • Pandemic preparedness Posted on: November 10, 2006 7:55 AM, by revere
Someone should tell the US government: “Big Blogger is Watching You.” Both CIDRAP and crof’s blog H5N1 picked up a story that the US State Department was advising its diplomatic and consular personnel in in Hong Kong and Macao to prepare for a possible “shelter-in-place” event by laying in a stockpile of food and water to last twelve weeks if there were a complete infrastructure breakdown in an influenza pandemic. CIDRAP noted this differs from advice on the US government pandemic flu site which suggests only a two week buffer.
<snip>
Yes, the US government is finding out how many people on the internet are tracking their every move!
I don’t think there is any mystery except someone screwed up. My original conjecture as to the reason (at 03:25 http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.PreparationInHongKong is IMHO still valid. So are my fun observations straight after that post!
Btw I sent an email to the South china morning post soon as the page was altered. They would most likely have called the consulate to ask, which would have triggered them removing the page altogether.
First someone from FW reads the original page and rings the CDC, who no doubt passes it up the chain. Somewhere up there, they have a blow-up with State, which passes down the other chain to the consulate. The poor folks there have to scramble and ‘correct’ the page, (not to mention all the emails and newsletters that have gone out already). That correction then gets noticed, again by people on the net. Someone (me) writes the SCMP, who calls the consulate, at which point whoever was responsible, who has been fielding calls up and down both chains for upwards of 24 hours, decides it was all too much and yanks the page. Lo and behold, more shit comes, in the form of even more speculation, now with Greenhammer and (hello!) CIDRAP on top of all the existing weirdo’s. Can’t exactly call CIDRAP anything other than respectable.
Lots of people are spending tonight scrubbing egg off their faces still.
The 2 week supply is what some one in Government is recommending (CDC would be my guess) Someone else in government is recommending 12 weeks (DHS and FEMA would be my guess there) State took the one that was given by the people that are supposed to know what a disaster will look like and ran with it, and as Anon_22 has said, all hell broke loose. In my very Humble opinion.
Laura said:
“Patch - having lived abroad myself, I would not want to be in another country in such a situation, PF or other disaster, large city or smaller. Citizens living abroad could be in even dire straights than those of us living at home.
Exactly. That’s one of the things I said earlier.
I say it’s one of two things:
1. The author overstated the case and is in trouble for that. 2. It is as Laura says, they are simply suggesting more cautionary measures for US citizens in “other” countries.
It’s that simple….nothing more. Either way, there truly is little to “read” into this.
I just don’t believe there is some sort of conspiracy covering up a more desperate situaiton. That’s all I’m saying.
Anon_451 – at 21:59
I haven’t seen anything official that recommends 12 weeks anywhere. Is there anything out in public?
Patch – at 22:08
I just don’t believe there is some sort of conspiracy covering up a more desperate situaiton. That’s all I’m saying.
I agree. I think it was a clumsy attempt to cover up a screw-up, then another attempt to cover up the cover-up, and so on…
Or was it Watergate?
anon_22 – at 22:08 No. As I said just my guess.
I for one am happy that the memo came out, whether someone made an honest mistake or little green aliens came down and changed the numbers using extraterrestrial math magic! I’ve spent the last two weeks helping 2 different friends making emergency moves, bugging my local health department about pandemic prep and nursing sick family members who have had the flu. (Of course that is unconfirmed flu as the doctor’s office was swamped with other patients who seemd to have similar symptoms.)
The 2 week prep period has been a huge hurdle to overcome, but I think this did it even if it was pulled. They aren’t going with a 12 week prep recommendation, but they are willing to advise a 6 week stockpile at all meetings though 2 weeks will remain the ‘official’ number. One more bite out of a really big bear that we need to eat taken and swallowed.
May the heavens smile down upon you and yours, memo writer. You are my hero of the week!!
anon_22, I gain more respect for you each day!! :-)
For me, your reason and ability to analyze things for what they seem to be, instead of what they “could be” is respectable.
I’m in good company, when I agree with anon_22. It was clumsy and the retraction only compounded the matter.
Should it be 3 months? Maybe. But a conspiracy of some sort? Or a covert indication of increased risk? Probably not.
If diplomatic and consular staff need twelve weeks, why would ordinary citizens need only two.
Well, diplomatic staff has the wrong kind of immunity.
Patch – at 22:25
Thank you!
ANON-YYZ – at 22:39
LOL
Two tiered system . One for the government staff and another for the average citizen. The mistake was in letting the cat out of the bag. Im tickled they got caught.
Two tiered system . One for the government staff and another for the average citizen. The mistake was in letting the cat out of the bag. Im tickled they got caught.
Anon_451 – at 21:59
You comment has triggered another thought. Recently at the APHA meeting, they passed a resolution declaring that the lead agency for pandemic planning should be HHS and not DHS (well, they would, wouldn’t they?)
On the surface, it would seem to make sense that a pandemic should be dealt with by a public health entity. But I personally think that, in principle, a pandemic is a systemic and strategic risk first, then a public health risk. Mitigations at the strategic or systemic level are likely to have far wider effects than public health ones. By that argument, I think pandemic mitigation should be headed by agencies that operate at the level of national security, with the public health response being one of many arms of the total strategy.
This is an unprecedented threat of which nobody has any experience. It’s not anything that would have been taken into account when the rules of governace were drawn up.
TPTB need to be very careful that they don’t let territorial issues between agencies impede the level of response needed. Indeed, there may be a case for someone with a specific mandate of overseeing the whole project to make sure that important measures do not fall into the gaps between agencies, or that resources are wasted because of duplication of effort.
Katrina
gaps, turf etc.
anon_22 – at 22:08
Anon_451 – at 21:59
I haven’t seen anything official that recommends 12 weeks anywhere. Is there anything out in public?
Nothing that I have ever seen in public, but in the DHS briefings… You bet.
12 weeks was in a presentation I saw on Monday in fact.
But there is that sticky new classification out there called “Public Safety Sensitive”, which will earn you a world of trouble if you violate it, and put something on the web that isn’t cleared first.
Since we all sign government non-disclosure agreements before class starts these days, it’s something most career people are not willing to violate.
Check this URL out for another recommendation for 12 weeks of preps:
You’ve got my attention Anon @ 23:23.
..there is that sticky new classification out there called “Public Safety Sensitive”
Can you elaborate?
http://www.cjog.net/background_sbu_sensitive_but_unclass.html
Sensitive, but unclassified is the proper term.
Shortened to “Public Safety Sensitive, not for public release”.
“The Homeland Security Act authorized DHS to identify and safeguard “sensitive unclassified information” but didn’t define the term.
It also allowed DHS to share this information with local and state government officials and private individuals, such as public health and medical professionals, and to require them to sign binding non-disclosure agreements.
By one estimate, that might be as many as four million people.”
Interesting on the Tunesia State Dept. site.
SOMEBODY didn’t get the removal memo.
LOL.
maybe they were out sick when the removal memo was ‘circulating’…
The genie’s out of the bottle …
Where’s CNN?
So it really wasn’t the HK consulate then. It was State Department.
Let’s see how long it takes for the US Embassy in Tunisia to take that page off the web.
anon_22 23:50
Let’s see how long it takes for the US Embassy in Tunisia to take that page off the web.
Anon_22 finally dons her own tin foil hat and waits to see if there really is a conspiracy….:-)
anyone taking bets? I say 12 hours.
Patch – at 23:29 that’s the same reason why people are being stonewalled when they ask their public utilities what they’re doing to prepare — it’s sensitive info that ‘terriorists’ could use to damage the utility. Broad classification so tptb throw anything they don’t want to tell us in that category!
I thought we knew all along that it was State Dept.
I found a old letter from the Ambassador to Vietnam dated April 2006 advising Americans to stockpile for one month.
I just checked the Tunis link. Either I’m not seeing what y’all are talking about or they removed it.
Look we all know the two weeks is BS.
They know the two weeks is BS.
TPTB are violating the first tenant of crisis communications, which shouldn’t be a surprise to ANYONE who watched Katrina unfold.
Multiple mixed messages, with standard government bungling in the mix.
Likely the same source. Interesting, but really doesn’t change much. Looks like the same release.
BG - Exactly!
I might also add, by pushing this farther into the media, you may have an unintended consequence of them enforcing the two week prep as the mantra throughout the entire government food chain.
Doesn’t get any clearer than this, taken from the Tunis URL:
“The U.S. Department of State is recommending that its overseas employees and their families prepare for the possibility of “sheltering in place” for an extended period of time – up to twelve weeks.”
The U.S. Department of State is recommending that its overseas employees and their families prepare for the possibility of “sheltering in place” for an extended period of time – up to twelve weeks.
Directly from the site. It’s there…black and white.
But I still think it’s the same press release. Might be out there for any embassy, that regularly updates their web-site. Somebody just found Hong Kong first.
Looks like TPTB already had Anon_22′s recommendations from the Circumventing the System thread.
1) the amount of information or level of complexity
2) the balance between being assertive and being permissive
Perhaps TPTB have decided to increase the amount of information being released to the public or perhaps they are simply being more assertive.
Either way, this is still an official site that says 12 weeks. It is more ammunition in the fight to get people better prepared, and I think that we all need all the help that we can get on that front.
anon_22 – at 23:08
This is an unprecedented threat of which nobody has any experience. It’s not anything that would have been taken into account when the rules of governace were drawn up.
The level of importance concerning addressing a severe pandemic is mind boggling. With the worst of the worst case scenarios, it puts the past world wars to shame. One of the things which keeps coming up in my mind is the fact that as we all speculate this and speculate that with abandone (myself guilty of this too), and some times as entertainment, the worlds governments are wrestling with this issue at the highest level. This is serious beyond belief.
When/if a severe panflu develops, I suspect the actions taken by governments will begin taking on a stark no-nonsense appearance. I think what we percieve as a lack of action concerning the warning of people to prepare is in actuality a calculated decision which takes in availability of goods, have versus have-not issues, extended psychological effects (or rather how to prevent them), and stability of governments/markets. I suspect what information is “let out” is being carefully orchastrated (or at least the attempt to do so is being made), as the withdrawn consulate panflu prep info illustrates. We keep expecting the media to jump on this sort of thing. The issue of a severe pandemic may very well be something the major media sources have been informed they need to tread lightly upon. This thing we have called a “civilization buster” is slowly but surely showing itself as being a real possibility. Do you think the worlds governments are going to not attempt to control every aspect of how this information is disseminated in an official capacity? I think we have just seen a small piece of what has been going on behind closed doors and a glimpse into the future concerning how governments will try to guide public response to a horrendous possiblity/reality.
It’s veteran’s day holiday. Probably skeleton staff only in many embassies and consulates. By Monday, it will all be removed.
Monotreme has the tunisia page on his site under ask monotreme http://tinyurl.com/ye9rja look 2/3rds down the page
That was for oremus
Bird Guano – at 00:10 I might also add, by pushing this farther into the media, you may have an unintended consequence of them enforcing the two week prep as the mantra throughout the entire government food chain.
Or we might have an unintended consequence of a turf-war story (which would sadly make the news in MSM while pandemic flu would not) triggering people to ask “what pandemic prep?”
That would be good.
Okieman – at 00:17
With the worst of the worst case scenarios, it puts the past world wars to shame.
Actually, you are too optimistic.
With a 2% CFR, which will kill the same no of kids aged 0–19 that would normally die in 20 years, as discussed here, it puts the past world wars to shame.
anon_22 – at 00:30
I guess the point I was trying to make is the fact that a severe pandemic is an event which could cause governments to do things we probably can not even imagine. Right now everything is out there in “what if” land, but when it becomes reality we all should be ready to hold onto our seats, because it is going to be one wild ride governmentally. Some governments will undoubtedly fall.
It was hiding in plain sight. I was opening all the links looking for it. 8^* I was looking for the same Hong Kong memo. Funny how the mind works, or doesn’t.
How long is each wave of a pandemic?
Okieman – at 00:17
When/if a severe panflu develops, I suspect the actions taken by governments will begin taking on a stark no-nonsense appearance. I think what we percieve as a lack of action concerning the warning of people to prepare is in actuality a calculated decision which takes in availability of goods, have versus have-not issues, extended psychological effects (or rather how to prevent them), and stability of governments/markets.
There is reason to believe that it is also because they are still working out details of what exactly they are going to do. If you read the National Strategy for Influenza Pandemic Implementation Plan there are pages and pages of planned activities and they all have a timeframe within which specific goals are to be achieved. The following is one example:
Communicating Expectations and Responsibilities
6.1.3. Work to ensure clear, effective, and coordinated risk communication, domestically and internationally, before and during a pandemic. This includes identifying credible spokespersons at all levels of government to effectively coordinate and communicate helpful, informative messages in a timely manner.
6 months would be about now.
BTW, even though the examples that I gave all used HHS as the lead agency, that is by no means the case with the other actions.
It is entirely possible that there was a confusion as to who is supposed to do what.
Although I don’t think I see the State Department mentioned. But then, you never know.
How long is each wave of a pandemic?
If each wave lasts longer than two weeks, then it makes absolutely no sense to recommend stockpiling for two weeks, and you are definitely not sheltering-in-place - the term used on those websites.
ANON-YYZ – at 01:20 How long is each wave of a pandemic?
2–3 months
About 12 weeks.
Hmmmmmmmm
I kind of knew that. I was asking a rhetorical question so if MSM see this, they should do something about it.
Especially if the recommendation comes from HEALTH and Human Services. They can’t pretend they don’t understand this.
Average Concerned Mom – at 23:53
anyone taking bets? I say 12 hours.
Let’s start the clock… :-)
To HHS Secretary: do you want to look like Baghdad Bob?
Each pandemic wave lasts 12 weeks.
Shelter in place for 2 weeks.
Some math.
If the government came out tomorrow and announced to the American Public that they should all stock up enough food, water, and other supplies to live “off the grid” and without infrastructure support for 12 weeks: a. How many would be able to afford to do this? and b. Is it even possible, were everyone to try? (That is how much canned and dry food, let alone other supplies for cooking, water purification, first aid etc are available at any given time for such stockpiling?) I read somewhere we have just a few days supply for every man, woman and child…but then I think of all the surplus grain we ship overseas or destroy to keep the prices up, and wonder. Does anyone here have hard data on that?
Mary in Hawaii – at 04:08
The argument of not having enough in our supply chain to satisfy a surge in demand has been used for over a year. The government can tell people to buy one extra week worth of non-perishables per month and build it up. In a year’s time, every one who tries has 12 weeks. If the pandemic happens in two months, every one has two weeks. No one knows when it might happen. One week of basic non-perishables is not too expensive, and if even 25% of the population do that, it just adds 6% to the demand for non-perishables - I say manageable.
So instead of saying how many weeks which doesn’t really drive predictable behavior within a time frame, it’s better to say add to your stock pile at the rate of one week per month and turn it into a habit. The message has to be simple.
IMHO, I don’t think it’s any kind of mistake or conspiracy. Having lived and visited in many countries, albeit many many years ago, it stands out in my mind about how hard it is getting groceries overseas. I think it is only prudent to tell them to stockpile for 12 weeks, they do not have the facilities like we do. A disruption in overseas economy will be much harder to get back to normal than here. I think Americans will work hard to get the grocery stores running again, but not so in other countries.
I don’t know where to post this, but I found it on Greenhammer. It is the Analysis from the Grocery Industry. Makes for some eye=opening reading, no matter how many weeks/months you’re prepping for !
www.greenhammer.net-documents-Grocery_COOP_Guide
Man, I hope this link works…it’s a pdf file and I couldn’t copy & paste the darn thing.
Rats, doesn’t work, back to the main site….
www.greenhammer.net-documents-Grocery_COOP_Guide.pdf
should work now.
Grocery Business COOP White Paper - August 2005. An anonymous grocery wholesale and retail company prepared this industry-sector analysis for the CIDRAP conference.
http://www.greenhammer.net/2006/week18.htm
Ok, It’s under the May 3, 2006 entries
“A pandemic has extraordinary features that require special planning:
it comes in 2 or 3 waves over 12 to 18 months;
it’s everywhere, though maybe not at the same time;
it causes absentee rates of 40%;
it invades the workplace itself, requiring changes in daily practices;
it scares the living hell out of everyone”
(I like it! I like it! Worth printing out…thanks)
Oh oops-that’s the greenhammerspeak- here’s the White paper - 19 p.
http://www.greenhammer.net/documents/Grocery_COOP_Guide.pdf
Key Recommedations are on p4, p 6 and 7 Comsumers, Employees p 8 and 9 (is this White Paper on the wiki side yet?)
Good White Paper, especially if state/local haven’t talked to local food stores yet..
anon_22 – at 21:41: Somewhere up there, they have a blow-up with State, which passes down the other chain to the consulate. The poor folks there have to scramble and ‘correct’ the page, (not to mention all the emails and newsletters that have gone out already).
Uh….there has been no corrective email sent via the warden system and disseminated to the 60,000 people who received the initial 12 weeks recommendation.
In fact, removing the 2 weeks recommendation from the website kinda lets that 12 week recommendation stay in effect to anyone who got the initial email. Nobody’s officially pulled that advice.
A at 8:02 kindly posted the CONSULAR INFORMATION PROGRAM, WARDEN MESSAGES AND THE NO DOUBLE STANDARD POLICY on a new thread of the same name. Excerpt from: http://foia.state.gov/masterdocs/07FAM/07M0050.PDF
Warden messages are most importantly used to inform U.S. citizens about events or threats that can affect their personal security…<snip>…
a. The Department’s “no double standard” policy, provided in 7 FAM 052, is an integral part of our approach to warden messages. The double standard we guard against is in sharing threat-related information with the official U.S. community — beyond those whose job involves investigating and evaluating threats — but not disseminating it to the U.S. citizen general public when that information does or could apply to them as well.
So it’s their duty to inform U.S. citizens in Hong Kong of any threats to their health and safety. They did that. And they have not “unwarned” them. They’re on the tightrope, but so far they’re managing to stay right on the wire and in the air.
It makes for good reference material. Pass this interesting material on to those who aren’t paying attention for whatever reason, especially those in city government.
Pixie, Love your interpretation of events!
Madamspinner – at 05:15
Grocery Business COOP White Paper - August 2005. An anonymous grocery wholesale and retail company prepared this industry-sector analysis for the CIDRAP conference.
I did an extensive analysis of this over at CurEvents when it first came out.
There was also an extensive discusion of it at the time.
I posted the entire document with section by section analysis in the forum thread there.
You can find it if you search for it from the front page.
The one at Greenhammer is a sanitized version of the original.
The Original was at a grocery distribution association website, and went much more in depth.
That’s the one I did the analysis on.
anon_22 – at 01:15
re:”It is entirely possible that there was a confusion as to who is supposed to do what.”
Most of us in the US are all to aware of that type of confusion, which is now assumed to be the government’s SOP (Standard Operating Procedure)
Disaster Management, Katrina-style=Take care of yourself, your loved one’s and your neighbors. ‘Cause very few people has the guts to call things as they are. (Except for Mike Leavitt)
Gives the term cluster**** a entirely new meaning.
(You’re doing a heck of a job, GW…..)
GraceRN: You hit the nail on the head. Many of us, myself included, have concentrated on preparing ourselves, and then trying to convince our loved ones to prepare (if they are, as mine, adults no longer living under one’s roof.) Even this second step has proven to be immensely frustrating and difficult. Now I realize that if I don’t also get those in my immediate neighborhood to prepare, if the flu hits and they are starving they will simply come and beg, borrow or steal what I have. (And no, I won’t shoot them.) So for my own survival it is necessary that I do all that I can to convince my neighbors to make preparations to survive as well. Lot of work ahead, folks.
Hello. I’ll put in my 0.02 cents of euros and you can flame me as much as you want, got a big kevlar sheet in front of me, lol. I waited to see how this is developed but I fail to see anything other than, firstly, a stupid typo, and, secondly, a stupid correction, and, finally, a stupid end-of-the-matter. Let me explain why.
At the birthing of a document, letter, memo, it is often being written up, by the firt author, someone who is not necessarily at the top of the hierarchy tree, and who may not weigh all of the implications he/she has written. In addition to being typed by someone who is not a typing whizzkid, or it can even be drafted by hand with a sometimes unlegible handwriting. Next steps could be:
Next stage:
You just would not believe how many documents I have been given in final form, already distributed worldwide, where the first title on the first page mentions a country or law number which is completely different from the first introducing paragraph, where they should be the same. And the same occurs inside the document. Yet these documents are seen by at least 20 people in the line of production and these errors have not been noticed by anyone, not even by the translators who translate the document into several languages. And I will say this, my place of work is one of the most accurate in Geneva, if not the most. It is locally said that if one can stand typing in my place for three months, whether in the typing pool or in the secretariats, then you can find any secretarial job in an international organization in Geneva, and we’re better than commercial outfits ever. It is true that on one phone call to Personnel in other places, the fact that a typist has worked with us will get her a job elsewhere almost immediately.
Now, then, what happens when I notice such glaring mistakes? And this happens elsewhere too, it’s standard behaviour. I immediately do either:
To me, it looks like what happened in HK is exactly that, a stupid error - 12 instead of 1–2 or 2 weeks, then some official did a whole paragraph correction to patch the thing as best he/she could. Then some of us and elsewhere started ringing bells all over the planet, and the whole thing has been pulled, with redirect to the government site, until TPTB decide what to do next, whether to re-issue or not, and that could take some weeks. Just a conjunction of stupidity and stupidity, said stupidity being evenly distributed the world over…
Hmmm - do I have to issue a correction for the typos above (says she, ashamed, running to hide under desk…)?
It was written as “twelve”. It may have been a typo or a dictation error. We may be paranoid. There’s probably no short term benefit for them in clarifying exactly what happened. This too will pass.
Mutations happen, and some small ones can be significant.
Yes, maybe “twelve” spelt out from “12″ or from “1–2″ or from “unfortunate stroke of pen2″. Will we ever know for sure? (usually drafts are kept for a while…). And would we believe such a honest admission of error unless they were prepared to issue a gif/jpg image of the “wrong draft”?
Sheeeeeeeeeee_t, are you saying you/one of us “saw” “twelve” (spelt out, written) in the first original draft???????????
By a high enough official in the full knowledge of what he/she was writing??????
Please consider the original sentence: “Therefore, current guidance notes that families should be prepared to ‘shelter-in-place’ for up to twelve weeks, and maintain sufficient food and water supplies to accommodate that entire period.” Nobody who knows anything would intend to say “two” instead of “twelve” in that sentence, because then the wording would fly in the face of what we know about how long a pandemic wave may last and what “shelter-in-place” means. “Twelve” was not a typo. It was the genuine intention to warn people to prepare to SIP for “up to twelve weeks,” not “up to two weeks,” which is laughable. The emphasis is on the length of time for which people must be prepared - “that entire period.”
That’s why the wording of the whole sentence was changed in the second version, the content of which has been conscripted by those who over-ruled the first warning: “The Department of Health and Human Services, via its pandemicflu.gov website, advises that families have on hand two weeks of emergency supplies (food, water, medicines) in the event of a pandemic influenza.” The second version disconnects the two weeks worth of preps to have “on hand” from the possible duration of a necessary SIP, obscuring the absurdity of the recommendation. It also pins the responsibility for the revised recommendation squarely on HHS as if to imply, “They made us say it this way.”
Trust me, we were not paranoid. The first warning was genuine. The second is the same sham that’s being peddled to the American people on American soil.
I guess Tunisia STILL hasn’t gottetn the memo to pull THE memo - it’s still up there.
I don’t think there’s a conspiracy, or that they necessarily have inside information. Just hypocritical that they’ll give employees a “heads up” but not the rest of us. Or, some staffer is just as worried as we are and put his neck on the line to get this info out.
If only someone in MSM would pick up on the contradictions - I think many would be interested in the contradictions and might make them think “hmm…maybe I should look into this BF thing.”
FrenchieGirl – so, the same typo happened for the Tunesia twelve-week recomendation? (nudge nudge, wink wink)
Still up now http://tunis.usembassy.gov/avian_influenza.html
“As of October 26, 2006, there are NO reported cases of Avian Influenza in Tunisia. We encourage all Americans to learn more about Avian Influenza.”
(links, ect)…
“ Several simple measures can be taken now that will put you and your family in a better state of readiness should such a pandemic occur. These measures are outlined at http://www.pandemicflu.gov/planguide/.
The U.S. Department of State is recommending that its overseas employees and their families prepare for the possibility of “sheltering in place” for an extended period of time – up to twelve weeks.
To prepare for this possibility, the Department advises that persons store appropriate supplies of non-perishable food and fresh water for emergencies. Individuals should also ensure that they have sufficient supplies of needed medicines, such as prescription medications. Formula for infants and any child’s or older person’s special nutritional needs should be a part of your personal planning. These steps can be helpful in preparing for many eventualities, from the possibility of a pandemic, to natural disasters, to simple disruptions in utility services”…
“Public Safety” Sensitive?? Doubleplus ungood. Unhappy macnam!
‘In the Language of Orthanc help means ruin, and saving means slaying, that is plain.’
InKy – at 07:14 Nobody who knows anything would intend to say “two” instead of “twelve” in that sentence.
Being the devil’s advocate here: “how do we know that “nobody who knows anything” is a somebody who knows something? What “they know” is not necessarily “what we (FW) know”. “Up to two weeks” may be laughable by us, but not by the majority.
Anyway, perhaps I’m having an adjustment reaction, though it’s fair to say I have been sometimes paranoid in the recent past. Not about this one though. Time will tell.
crfullmoon – at 07:32 - Yes I have seen the Tunisian memo. That memo was sent out from a central location in US to the rest of the world, and I’d think with exactly the same text. And the Embassy people in Tunisia, who gave a local slant to the document, have just not been prompt enough in removing/ correcting it. Have you worked with that country? Have you worked with officials who have to work with that country? Even if it’s US staff at the embassy, the cultural differences between between Tunisia and HK are bound to affect the efficiency of the people in these US embassies. When you trade with HK, “you say, you do, now - often also at night”. When you trade with some other countries, “you say, and, eventually, it might get done”. Culture can be very pervasive
FrenchieGirl – at 07:44
Who was it who said, “Do not attribute to malice that which could be attributed to incompetence.” :-) I agree with you completely.
The first warning is in line with what we know they know ;→. (The State Department has had a handle on this for some time. I knew a guy who worked there; he’s why I began prepping. He’s since retired and moved a country property which would be the envy of anybody who plans to SIP.) It wasn’t an uninformed person who originated that first message. To believe that is to grasp at straws.
Given the rising drumbeat of preparation in the face of fairly sparse case reports, I think “they” know more than we know, and that what they know isn’t comforting. That’s just a guess, though. As for my reading of the messages, I’d bank on that.
Correction, I don’t think it was a typo, though. I think it was a conflict about who should be giving advice, not necessarily the content of the advice, although obviously in this case that was the most important thing affected.
Remember we haven’t heard the last word yet as to what HHS will eventually be recommending. Personally I’m withholding judgment at least until the next set of policy documents come out of HHS/CDC.
FrenchieGirl, no, no, I have none of your work, contacts nor expertise, (I guess I should have put a smiley in with that nudge and wink).
InKy – at 07:48, I agree that the first warning is more in line with what we know, btw. It’s the interpretation of what might have happened to cause the mixed messages that differ, at least from my POV.
Anon_22 - Any sense of when that next set of policy documents might be forthcoming?
crfullmoon – at 07:53 - Sorry, did I sound patronising? It wasn’t meant to be. My apologies if I sounded discourteous. Actually, thanks to you, I have just spotted something, but I can’t put my finger on it. Will mull over it this afternoon while I take my old lady out, and see if tonight I can make sense of it. Have a nice Sunday. And sorry if I was abrupt in my post. Have to go now.
I liked the HK recommendation to start a compost bin or worm farm and a garden plot if possible or think what they could grow in winter… Really would have been a more honest pandemic preparedness memo for any city dweller here to get.
FrenchieGirl – at 07:44
And the Embassy people in Tunisia, who gave a local slant to the document, have just not been prompt enough in removing/ correcting it. Have
I suspect that the spat between HHS and State that caused this fiasco happened at the speed of 21st century communication and efficiency, ie emails and phone calls and instant actions 24/7.
It is not just the speed with which the Tunisian consulate might respond. There is also the issue of the process by which this spat could result in a withdrawal of the text from all embassies.
For that to happen, the whole matter has to be referred again probably to the heads of agencies or at least heads of the department, who will likely carefully draft
a) an internal memo to whichever team wrote up the document in the first place, giving them what-for (and generally exonerating the said head in the process)
b) reply to the HHS, officially, which might prompt more back and forth official communication before the whole matter subsides, and, once these are sorted out, then
c) a carefully worded set of instructions for embassies on how to retract this memo properly without another fiasco.
If most embassies had not posted the memo on their websites, then the matter would have a chance of subsiding quietly.
All speculation, of course, but then so is much of this story! lol
InKy – at 07:55 Anon_22 - Any sense of when that next set of policy documents might be forthcoming?
Well, when I looked at the document referenced at 00:59, there are many tasks or ‘activities’ that had a timeframe of 6 months. That document was dated May. Give some leeway for processes getting started, etc, I would suspect shortly after Xmas. That would tie in with the timeline for non-pharmaceutical interventions being debated at the IOM meeting.
dates coming together in the future - con-flu-ence - yay!
Anon_22,
Just curious as to when we might see new policy with regard to CDC/HHS? Is there a timeline?
Many thanks,
Argyll.
Not sure if this posted or not, but hope you find this link helpful on Warden Messages.
http://foia.state.gov/masterdocs/07FAM/07M0050.PDF
Argyll.
anon_22 - at 8:05
Thanks. I can only wish government could move a little faster.
Argyll – at 08:47
On the Wiki main page (the R sidebar) are listed several citizen initiative meetings. These are info-gathering tasks by state public health and Institute of Medicine bodies. These advisory groups then feed back to CDC and HHS, who then change course and/or add to recommendations. I’d guess it’s a 4–6 month process.
InKy – at 09:02 anon_22 - at 8:05
Thanks. I can only wish government could move a little faster.
You’re welcome. They are slow for all the normal reasons that apply to all government initiatives eg accountability, consultation, co-ordination etc.
In this instance, a pandemic is uncharted territory. We all know how much speculation and extrapolation we need to do personally to arrive at some conclusion about the threat and optimum response.
Public policy, however, needs to be built on more than intuition and good intention, even if there are no funding limits or conflicting agena (and there always will be). You need a certain level of ‘proof of case’, a ‘balance of probabilities’, which means that you need to commission some fast-track research (since existing ones are insufficient). The stuff presented at the IOM meeting would be an example.
Then you need to take the proposals and run them by the various stakeholders to find out where there might be problems and generally as a reality check. The ASTHO meetings are an example of that. Others would include taking the views of various sectors such as health, education, finance, and, in the case of stockpiling for 12 weeks, probably businesses in general and retail suppliers in particular.
All this by way of explanation, not justification. :-)
Chances are that what happened in Hong Kong was pretty straightforward:
Don’t we usually say here that the simplest answer is usually the correct one? The job is done. The question now is what would you be doing at this juncture if you were an American expat living in Hong Kong?
If it were me? Getting to where I wanted to be stuck during a pandemic year (Your results may vary.)
Mary in Hawaii – at 14:30
I think alot of us came to that conclusion either becasue of what we read on the wikie or independently. I finished up my heavy/costly preps andthen thoguht “Now what?”
My neighborhood has had a recent influx of young couples/parents. Do I do nothing, knowing mine are safe but the babies around me are in harms’ way? Couldn’t live with that. So I started working locally. So far, not much has been accomplished [:(] but persistance is key.
FWIW, if the parents are informed of the risk and chose to do nothing, that’s different. I will keep chiseling away at them, offering group education/discussions on a community level to a neighbor level ie in my home at night.
What should we do if we’re not in HK?
I’ve just updated the Health Care Worker page. Seems like it’s time to create a citizen involvement page. it’ll include the official conferences and the informal projects like Pandemic Flu Awareness Week.
anon_22 at 9:12
It is hard for government, which is accountable to everyone, to act nimbly against a mindless virus which is accountable to no one and thus can evolve much more quickly than calculated public policy can. In a sense, this is a fascinating evolutionary showdown. We are at the mercy of chance right now, depending on H5N1 to grant us time to shore up our preparations and defenses. What worries me is that so much will depend on what individual people have done for themselves rather than on what governments can do for them, and what governments are not doing is giving people, without equivocation, fair warning. Of course, everybody here knows this and laments it, so I didn’t need to say it all again ;→. I hope time is on our side! (I’d better go finish chopping up my celery and carrots for the dehydrator.)
DemFromCT – at 09:45 What should we do if we’re not in HK?
I was sitting at McDonald’s yesterday thinking about the implications of the HK advisory for us. A lady walked by and, seeing my demeanor at that moment and my daughter picking at her fries and playing with her Happy Meal toy, stopped briefly and said with a sympathetic smile “it’s hard to wait for them, isn’t it?”
I realized at that moment that my brow had been quite furled, and my left leg, sticking out from under the table, had been bouncing up and down in agitation. I smiled at the lady, and nodded. But it was not my daughter I was impatient waiting for, or tense about. I could wait for her to pick at her fries forever. It was waiting for something else entirely that had caused the obvious change in my demeanor, and it was HK that I had been completly concentrated in thinking about at that moment.
Then we went next door to Costco, which is now, to me, a schizophrenzic experience. (Bratz Dolls - 25LBS of rice, NintendoDS game - 24 cans of canned roast beef (new product!)…).
DemFromCT – at 09:45 What should we do if we’re not in HK?
Well my idea, although maybe naive, is to gather together my copies of these documents from HK and Tunisia long with a copy of the “No Double Standard Policy” and send a letter to my elected (not all by me) officials and not ask but demand an explanation from them regarding this situation. I believe speculating about it will get me nowhere. However, writing a letter will probably get me nowhere just as fast too, but I think it is worth a try anyway. I would also be interested if anyone else has thought about writing to their elected officials.
Pixie – at 10:01 Then we went next door to Costco, which is now, to me, a schizophrenzic experience. (Bratz Dolls - 25LBS of rice, NintendoDS game - 24 cans of canned roast beef (new product!)…).
Would that ‘schizophrenic experience’ had this all covered!
(pixie - you couldn’t have known, but my daughter is schizophrenic - the meaning of this illness has been corrupted; it is a genuine illness)
The disconnect is unavoidable. Moreso as time goes by. Many of us would like to find ourselves silly, rather than correct.
Wolf – at 10:19
I’m really sorry about any negative implications in what I said about individuals burdened with that very real disease. I apologize.
I was speaking more of the way we use the (generic) phrase in the sense of straddling two worlds. Yes, I’d love to find myself silly in this situation, and think that the disconnect I experience at Costco is a personal problem, and not a national and strategic one.
Again, many apologies, Wolf.
Pixie – at 09:33
there has been no updated Warden email issued to the 60,000 American citizens in Hong Kong that would supercede the advisory to prepare for a twelve week shelter-in-place
the Hong Kong consulate has done its job, and it managed to do so very effectively in spite of outside pressures
I’m sure I’m the only one who has ever suddenly woken up to their own stupidity. It is so obvious when you put it that way, yet I never thought of that at all!
Thanks you!
Let’s hope they suddently become inefficient, so that any revised newsletter/email won’t be sent out till after the HHS has formally recommended 12 weeks, at which point they won’t need to do the revision at all!
Wolf and Pixie - Congrats!! This is one of the nicest exchanges about word use I’ve seen. Thank you both for being who and what and the way you are. Wolf, hope things are going well and that you’ve been able to plan ahead for this in meds. Pixie, we all use words that have become generic but really are so definitive for those that the phrase applies that it is sometimes hard to see beyond the misuse. Wolf was so great to kindly mention but not flame, and Pixie was so kind and I can almost see her face with OMG, what did I say, I didn’t mean,… on it. We’ve all done it. Thanks again to you both. A lesson in reading and thinking before we post, and then not flaming when someone says something that hits our hot button. I’ll try to learn it again, but I mess up sometimes as we all do.
Influentia2 – at 10:15
Re elected officials: a phone call during office hours to staff (talk to a live person and be polite!) folowed by a letter (not email) is the way to go. If you mention that you represent even more than yourself, even better. I don’t mean representing oneself as Flu Wiki, I mean “friends and neighbors feel the same”. The elected offcial will in their mind add up “how many votes is that?” and that’s how the system works.
See also Raising Awareness for local official letter templates and other ideas.
mj – at 10:44
Indeed, yes ;-)
DemFromCt 10:49
Thank you for the tips. I have called the Congressman’s office here on other issues and have went the email route also. Even by email I got more than the standard form letter(from somebody) which surprised even me.
So tomorrow I will call at least my Congressman’s office since I will only have time at lunch to do that much and then send out a follow up letter tomorrow night(not an email). I hadn’t planned on mentioning Flu Wiki and I will mention my friends and neighbors and I will be polite above all else.
I will go check out the “Raising Awareness” thread and get some ideas from that for a follow up letter and just exactly how to bring this situation up in a phone call too.
Thanks again
Pixie,
Loved your McDonald’s and Costco story … thanks for sharing it!
To recap: Hong Kong + Tunisia = 12 weeks advisory to prep for American citizens. May well be taken down. (HK = withdrawn).
Who might be next??
And, has major media covered this yet?? Might there be a gag order until a directive is received from DHS/HHS to cover the story? Or, perhaps did I miss it?
Argyll.
Argyll – at 11:22
And, has major media covered this yet?? Might there be a gag order until a directive is received from DHS/HHS to cover the story? Or, perhaps did I miss it?
You know what is the saddest part of this story? It’s that nobody cares.
A gag order would have prompted the media frenzy that we would like to see.
I remember reading a book about Lebanon during their civil war. Someone said, “It was depressing when the war went on and on and it was in the papers every day. It was even more depressing when it was no longer a story.”
Argyll, I believe that to be 12 weeks, not months. ;-)
Thanks for the correction! That is perhaps the biggest goof I have made to date. If someone here can go in and delete that, I would greatly appreciate it. My apology for the mistake!
Argyll.
done
Goes to show how typos or inadvertent information could get put out…eh? ;-)
On another thread (Rumors, I think) someone just stated that the Lima, Peru embassy people had been instructed to prep for 12 weeks too. I don’t know how to do links on FW. I just saw the comment, it’s very recent. Monotreme’s website has a lot of discussion on this point.
Monotreme mentioned that the BBC are at the head of the line for receiving (potential) vaccine, Tamiflu etc. and wondered if our media has also been tamed that way. If so, that might go far in explaining how little information we’re getting.
(And Pixie, please don’t worry - I took no offense at all and very much enjoy your posts!)
BeWell – at 21:11
That would support out hypothesis that this was a State Department decision, which in the case of Hong Kong was removed from the website for the reasons we have been speculating about.
Thanks for your kindness, Wolf!
Various people have put in Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for the original cable that was supposedly sent to all embassies and consulates advising 12 (twelve) weeks of supplies in order to be able to shelter-in-place during a pandemic. It will be interesting to see if the cable surfaces, or if it is denied under FOIA.
BeWell at 21:11
I can’t find that information on Monotreme’s site — he has the comment about Tunisia, but not Lima Peru as far as I can tell. Am I missing something there?
I can still check the cashed text on google under “us consulate prepare for twelve weeks”
The 12 week recommendation is still there..here
Here is a link that lists of all of the US Embassies, Consolates, and Diplomatic Missions on the US State Dept website:
Not exactly under the Hong kong topic, but i think that Dr. margaret Chan was an ok politcal choice. At least we have a woman on that side of the planet looking out. Have you looked at her background? Quite impressive. because she comes form Hong kong (China) are we going to dismiss her. I say no!
She’s got a record at WHO and within her country, don’t try and lump her into China. She’s much more than that. Will they sway her as far as the economic guides go? Sure- the same as the USA. We can’t let our stock market down.
Have any of you read the “Hot Zone” lately? do it. Remember what it’s all about and how few people really know what’s going on. It’s really only a handful. I don’t know….. but I pray that there’s some sort of group that stays up around the clock, and is in touch with all that’s news, but that just ain’t true. My family’s been in the house and senate as long as they’ve been there, and we just don’t know. Not about terrorist plans, and certainly not about viruses. we rely on our scientists to get the word out. Please tell us JOSH- what is going on? Please tell us Mike- what do you know? What is the HOT ZONE looking like? even if we tell the rest of the world they do not care. They do NOT care about DARFUR, and they don’t care about the middle east. We should not be there killing their people.
WE have got to find some stabilifying element among the people. and that element is women. Beyond religion and race and status, the women hold the keys. They do not want their children dying. You don’t see on the news a truck holding 20 girls with machine guns ready. You don’t see the streets of some city in Iraq with women at the helm. No- we don’t need another male from some big city-blues. We need a female. Someone like Nancy Jaxcks (or however her name is spelled). But we need someone in charge here, who knows what they are doing. Not someone who is just a governmental figurehead. There was so much confusion with the Ebola-Reston, hopefully things have gotten straightenout and the chain of command is clear.
This will be coming up ahead, who is in charge?
side scroll from Birdie Kate at 22:29.
Pixie at 09:33
It’s called Ockham’s razor…
A lot of you read me- you were not even out of elementary when we went on the watch-dog. These events weren’t even in your subconcious. Yes we were thinking about the future but not about the price of this or that. WE planned ahead for your furture. ot the stock market.
Tunisia embassy has removed the twelve week notice.
If I weren’t paranoid to begin with, the events of the past week would certainly have tilted me in that direction!
o: – at 23:11
I can’t tell you how strenuously I disagree that somehow a woman will be better at being the head of WHO, or being a stablilzing element (in what?) or that men like their children dying.
Total nonsense, first to last.
The WHO would be better served to have someone who was not involved in screwing SARS.
Brock – at 01:17
Was it replaced with anything?
Someone called Bill Wattenberg on KGO radio (San Francisco) around 10 pm last night to ask about the 2 week vs. 12 week issue, mentioning embassies in HK, Tunesia, and the altered then missing missives.
Wattenberg (a scientist at Lawrence Livermore Labs) said that the foreign embassies get warned to stock up more than domestic sites because the infrastructures in foreign countries usually are not as good as they are in the US. The caller pointed out that if there’s a pandemic the infrastructure in the US isn’t going to be any good either, which prompted Wattenberg to go off about how bad the case fatality rate is and how people just can’t imagine how bad a pandemic might be. Wattenberg said 50%, caller said 67% in Indonesia but admitted it could have been higher since last checked. Basically derailed the topic to death rate instead of answering about preparation targets. Caller said they were stocked up for 12 weeks.
Caller knew more than Wattenberg, I think. I suspect it was an effort by someone to make sure this information leaked out to a wider audience rather than a real question. However it may have drawn attention to the Tunesia site.
Dunno if the caller was an insider or a netizen.
DemFromCT – at 10:49 YOu advise writing congresspeople via regular mail, however when I recently undertook a letter writing campaign to all US senators re bird flu preparation, I stuck with emails because several of the senators’ websites warned that letters sent via “snail mail” could take up to 10 weeks to arrive, as all mail now undergoes weeks of testing and scrutiny before ever making to the office of the public official to whom it is addressed (ever since the anthrax scare). So you might want to rethink that advice. Phone calls may be a good way of getting attention, but you are probably going to be talking to an assistant’s assistant assistant anyway, and if you have much of importance to say it’s not going to be communicated in any but the most abbreviated form. So, I opted for writing a strong argumentative letter, hoping it would somehow miraculously get someone’s attention and filter up to tptb. I think if enough people took the time to email, it would begin to tally up as an “important issue”, and tptb might actually start to read the letters.
anon_22 – at 09:12 The thing is, regardless of how complex and uncertain this whole pandemic thing is, the government needs to step forward with candor and tell the citizens to start putting extra food and water aside every week. Period. It should give them a recommended list of how much they need to buy each week for each person in their household, break it down, make it doable, and make it important. Back during WW2 (I wasn’t born yet, but i’ve heard) they had this big cooperative movement - the war effort - where people had “victory gardens” and such. It didn’t cause a panic, it was just a sensible united patriotic effort that was considered vital to national security. Well so is preparing for the gd pandemic. Why can’t our officials take the same kind of attitude, use the same kind of PR? It’s all about the spin anyway, so the fact that they won’t step up to the plate on this is stupid and unconscionable.
BeWell 01:26 They took the notice off and replaced it with a statement saying that bird flu was a concern and directing the reader to US Govt websites for info, IIRC. Basically, just dropped the whole thing. Dont know nuttin about nuttin, I guess.
Thanks. Pretty darn weird. I just read on another thread (if I had a couple of working brain cells I’d tell you which one, but it’s up at the top somewhere, I think the poster was Death Valley or something similar) that Bill Wattenberg was talking about this tonight on his radio show.
Brock - Spam alert was me, I did that on a spammed thread.
And Death and Wattenburg are on THIS thread. It’s obvious I need to go to bed and stop bothering people on FW!
:-)
Brock – at 01:17 - I can still see it from here
Death – at 01:54, glad to hear it getting mentioned over the radio.
Mary in Hawaii – at 02:22
phone calls are best.. talking to an assistant is still the best constituent contact. And it’s true that snail mail takes longer, but is still more valuable. Emails are generally handled with a form letter (if that) and nothing else.
I looked this morning on the Tunesia State Department link and still saw the 12 week recommendation. I guess I lost the bet.
Pixie at 09:33
It’s called Ockham’s razor…
Sorry! I don’t know what I read when I posted that the twelve week notice was gone. It’s still there. I didn’t mean to rattle the cage anymore than it already is. Again, sorry about the misinformation. (We have enough of that going on without ME helping!)
Mary In Hawaii 20:22 and
DemFromCT 7:22
I have called my Congressman’s Office before on another issue and got results. Earlier this summer I emailed about yet another issue and got an answer (not a form letter) from his office. Whenever I contact my Congressman’s office I ask them not to send a form letter and I ask politely to be respected in my point of view and to be taken seriously , so far, I have never gotten a form letter from my Congressman, Our(soon former) Senators in this state, well that is another story.
I have contacted this Congressman this summer about Pandemic Planning and I sent him another email today regarding these Embassy posts and sent copies of them along with the “No Double Standard Policy”, so far no reply. I am waiting a day or two and then I may call or send another email, I haven’t decided which I will do yet. I can let you know what I am told if you like.
Anyway, thanks to both of you for your advice.
Hope this thread was OK to use to try to get this message to you two.