I’m trying out a new idea. Let’s put all UK News and comments on one thread, and see if we can concentrate people’s minds and make it easier to follow what’s being talked about, instead of digging around in the bottom. Please also post one copy of the News to the News Thread.
Measures to fight flu pandemic considered
By Andrew Jack, Financial Times
Published: November 6 2006 02:00
New measures to help fight a future flu pandemic, costing up to £3bn over the next three years, could be approved by the government within the next few weeks.
Later this month Patricia Hewitt, the health secretary, will consider proposals to buy substantial extra quantities of protective masks, antibiotics, antiviral drugs and vaccines, say people with knowledge of the plans.
The options are a tough political choice in balancing resources between current health service operations and new measures to curb the deaths, hospitalisations and economic disruption from a pandemic about which much remains unknown. The decision will come as the UK braces itself for the annual peak of seasonal flu cases this winter, and the possibility of fresh migratory birds’ deaths in Europe from the H5N1 bird flu, which will stoke fears of a new human pandemic.
Very good article, and its free.
The goodies include masks, antibiotics, quadrupling tamiflu stockpile to cover ‘post-exposure prophylaxis’.
More controversial is pre-pandemic vaccines.
“The increase is based on computer modelling, which suggests that such measures - combined with the closure of schools and other “social distancing” actions - could sharply reduce the impact of the pandemic as it spreads across the country over the course of several weeks.”
Thank you, Neil (Ferguson)!
The devil, as always, is in the details. As in when?
But at least someone is waking up to the fact that the figures don’t work.
BTW, on the How Many Kids Will Die In 1918 Scenario thread, with US figures, a CFR of 2% and attack rate of 40% will kill the same no of 0–19 year olds as the total deaths for that age group for 20 years.
I ran the same numbers for UK and its worse. We only need an AR of 25% to have the same result.
From the Mortality Statistics England and Wales
total population age 0–19 = 13,097,600
25% attack rate, 2% fatality = 65,488
deaths all causes age 0–19, 2004 = 3281
ie a pandemic of even 2% fatality at the most conservative AR of 25% will kill the same number of young people aged 0–19 as would normally happen in 20 years from all causes
If this is just now being proposed, it might be worthwhile lobbying your MP’s for this!
‘UK News and Comments’ Seems a good thread to me, many thanks. Alan.
Bird flu report reveals failings
from the BBC
A report into how an outbreak of bird flu in Norfolk was dealt with has exposed a number of shortcomings. Norfolk County Council reviewed the response to the H7N3 outbreak at three farms in North Tuddenham in March.
One fault highlighted was a breakdown in communication between the government and local authorities which led to the wrong wording used on warning signs.
However, the report concludes that communication improved and the overall response was effective.
The wording for the 1km restriction zone had to be changed from “protective zone” to “restricted zone” after the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) decided to use legislation which was about to be brought into place.
Concerns were also raised that the Government News Network was not immediately available at the scene to help co-ordinate the media response.
“Defra needs to place more trust in local agencies to not mis-use any information passed in confidence to local agencies,” the report stated.
Another issue was that police officers at the scene of the incident did not have any protective clothing at the start of the outbreak.
They were on occasions exposed to feathers and dust being thrown up into the air when culled birds were being bagged.
Let’s see:
I hope these were not listed by order of priorities.
anon_22 – at 10:13
New measures to help fight a future flu pandemic, costing up to £3bn over the next three years, could be approved by the government within the next few weeks.
The goodies include masks, antibiotics, quadrupling tamiflu stockpile to cover ‘post-exposure prophylaxis’.
I wish they’d spend some of the money on a tv debate where they lay out the facts and the probabilities about H5N1/other pandemics. At the moment, few people, including doctors take the hazards seriously.
uk bird – at 13:23
I wish they’d spend some of the money on a tv debate where they lay out the facts and the probabilities about H5N1/other pandemics. At the moment, few people, including doctors take the hazards seriously.
But they are asking Parliament for money. Pretty soon. Which means that NOW is the time to write to your MP’s asking them to pay attention.
I haven’t quite figured out exactly what should be said yet. Any suggestions for seasoned politics buffs are welcome.
I can’t imagine £3bn spending going down without a debate. My concern is the debate is likely to get side-tracked into overall NHS spending etc.
Let’s all think about this some more, and work out what needs to be said for the public to pay attention, or ask the right questions.
If they tell the full truth to the public, some will prep. Talk about burden sharing!
The truth: what’s going on, what are your assumptions (as in, what are you getting ready for, disruption included), and what should we do on many levels.
This is a good idea, Anon_22, but is it duplicitous of the Northwest Europe and British Isles Lookout Posts thread? Just wondering before I set it into the Forum Index…thanks.
We need to look into the intent of the Lookout Posts. Thanks for the tip, BB!
Thanks lugon…I’ll hold off ‘til further notice.
Not sure if this is the best thread to post this on, however, in the event of a ‘worse case’ pandemic and were getting many many BF deaths within the UK.
My question is, if we were holed up in isolation from the general public, and god help us, one of our loved ones should die of BF, under those conditions what action would the police and or coroner expect us to take. Sorry for the sad post, but I would be interested to know your views.
Alan the Pom-
we have a thread, What Do We Do With The Bodies. I have not read any of the posts, so I couldn’t say what’s been discussed. I can not bring myself to “look”. I’ve envisioned the worst possible thing happening to me during a pandemic, namely, loosing my hubby, one or both my daughters. I’m not at a point right now, to where I can think about the end of my world as I know it, should something like that happen. Others that post here, are healthcare workers, are better able to discuss such a topic without becoming a complete basketcase. I’m not sure I’ll ever read that thread.
Better to ask your local officials, Alan; they should have plans already, since pandemic could break out at any time.
They may be able to override you in an emergency, (or not, if they plan for few fatalites, no grid disruptions, ect, and instead, get plague pits worth of losses) so, better to have public push for doable-during-pandemic formalities and praticalities, worked out now. (Have you looked over the Mass Fatality Planning threads, yet? Please have a go.)
(Buy a pint of Guinness for Ken West for me, if you see him. Brilliant.)
;-)
I’m not sure I’ll ever read that thread.
As a child I was told to try some exotic food in case you are offered the same food when you go out to eat. I thought it was not very wise to suffer twice.
I’m still quite sure suffering in advance is not good. Having a reaction (and resources) that’s better than the “natural default” is good (hopefully).
lugon- I understand why you posted that. I do believe in what you say. I do realize that is apart of the pandemic that must be adressed, along with the many issues. I guess what I’m trying to say, is that right at this moment, I can not read that thread. I hope I can be strong enough to do so, at some point. Hubby and I own and are caretakers of his families 9 acre private cemetary, so I have given this just a tab bit of thought. But when it comes to my hubby, and children, the thoughts and feeling are more difficult to handle. Hope I’m being a big baby.
People have alarms, fire drills, learn what to do if clothes catch on fire, because, unconsidered and unprepared, some bad things go worse than with some forethought.
Parents of minor children at least, should have wills, and guardians named, and, know each other preferences if, one or the other of you (painful topic, but), has to know where to find important papers and, what the other’s wishes are. Otherwise, it’s all start from nothing, when a person will be in shock. And death, eventually, is certain, even if some still do not consider pandemic to be so.
All the best to you.
crfullmoon. I dont feel I would be able to raise such a subject with our local officials, it is my impression that ‘currently’ they would not know the answer to such a question., BF plans would most likely only be known by ‘high level officials’, (at this stage, on a need to know, and we the public dont need to know, yet) and their reply is very likely to be based on normal conditions. which would involve a doctor,police and coroner. I am still confused what my legal responsibility would be given a BF pandemic, and at the same time trying to keep the rest of my family ‘isolated’ from the outside world. cottontop. I think UK law may not be the same as US law. ANYWAY it wont happen to US cos we will be OK and are hopefully prepared, it just that I would like to know what my position would be under UK law, just in case.
Firms at risk of flu pandemic 13 November 2006
NICK HEATH
Thousands of East Anglian businesses are leaving themselves exposed to the devastating impact of a bird flu pandemic, industry leaders warned yesterday.
Their comments follow a report by business forum Survive urging companies to prepare emergency plans - claiming a pandemic would cost British business £95 billion and decimate workforces.
But yesterday it emerged that at least 19,000 small-to-medium sized businesses in the region do not appear to have made any preparations.
Chief executive of Norfolk Chamber of Commerce Caroline Williams and Breckland Council economic development manager Mark Stanton said they were not aware of any small business locally which had drawn up contingency proposals.
Mr Stanton raised doubts as to whether the region’s smaller businesses have the resources to protect themselves from such an outbreak.
The report estimates that during a pandemic large companies should expect upto 15pc of their workforce to be off sick and small organisations upto 30pc.
It stresses that companies should “understanding the urgency of the threat and the importance of planning early.
“The overall aim is to minimise risk to employees, counter the disruptive
effects of a pandemic, and ensure business survival”.
Mr Stanton said: “I do not know of any businesses with these plans in place, I do not think that they are even considering it.
“Small businesses do not generally have the resources and time to put such a contingency plan in place.
“I think that dealing with something of this nature is not the job of small-to-medium business it should fall to local authorities and emergency services.”
He said Breckland had a ‘rescue toolkit’ where its officers offer advice and support for businesses in times of crisis to help them get back on their feet.
He added that it was also important to consider the effect of a pandemic on whole business sectors, citing the devastating blow it would deal to tourism.
Mrs Williams said: “It is the small businesses that probably do not have these plans, for them keeping up with employment law and health and safety regulation is as far as they can go. I have not heard anybody talking about it.
“You do not want this to come as a surprise and it is right that businesses start to review this in a considered manner rather than a kneejerk reaction.
“Businesses need to look at it because they can not pretend it is not happening.
“There is only so much you can do but you could be better prepared for the impact for instance by not taking on a large order.
“Profit margins are getting squeezed all the time and this would obviously further damage profitability, for example from the cost of taking on temporary staff.
“It would be bad news as it would affect not just your staff but also your customers and your supply chain.”
She said that businesses should take advantage of free business advice on the matter through the government’s Business Link service.
A spokesman for the East of England Development Agency backed the report and said it was important not to ignore its recommendations.
“We would encourage companies to make sure they have got robust contingency plans in place, to think about what they would do,” he said.
The report recommends that companies develop strategies that would allow them to continue business during a pandemic, consider what medical help can be provided to employees and how to minimise health risks.
blam. Good article, I have raised this subject with a number of CEO’s. I am not aware of any who have put a contingency plan in place, they ask ‘how can you minimise the risk to employees’ and say if we lost 15/30% of our workforce at any one time we would be in serious trouble, our business is just not structured to cope with such a lost of personnel. IMO UK business is so interlinked with each other that if one goes down, there is very likely to be a ‘domino effect’.
Alan the Pom… My BIL in Indiana has a large Travel Agency. He is worried about his business but, I don’t know of any plans he’s made for the business for a flu pandemic. I think, being in the travel business…how many people will you need during a pandemic? My sister, at my urging, has ‘laid-in’ a minor amount of supplies for her household.
Blam - can you provide a source for the article? I’ve googled for some keywords but can’t find it.
Also, maybe someone will tell us we shouldn’t copy whole articles because of copyright concerns.
here it is, Blam. Saw it in http://influenzapandemic.blogspot.com
Alan, sure, your “impression that ‘currently’ they would not know the answer to such a question” is likely very correct, but, if you ask in such a way, perhaps also handing or mailing in Ken West’s pandemic preparation paper linked above at 15:22, that makes them wonder what actions will be taken if surges are overwhelming normal services of all types, they might start asking questions higher up, (even if they never come back and tell you they’ve given it another minute’s thought after you cross their path).
;-) Last sentences in this article would have made an eye-catching headline, better than the one they used… Guernsey, 13/11/2006
crfullmoon. Agree ‘very eye-catching’. I’ll give it a go and see how I get on.