(If you want any of the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)
Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions or to add news
| No | Region Name | No | Region Name | No | Region Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA | 8 | East Africa | 15 | Arab Peninsula |
| 2 | Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Circle | 9 | Southern Africa and Madagascar | 16 | Central Asia |
| 3 | Central America and Caribbean | 10 | Northwest Europe and British Isles | 17 | Southern Asia |
| 4 | South America and Surrounding Islands | 11 | West and Southwest Europe | 18 | Mainland East Asia and Japan |
| 5 | Northern Africa | 12 | Central and Southeast Europe | 19 | Southeast Asia |
| 6 | West Africa | 13 | Eastern Europe and Baltic Region | 20 | Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia |
| 7 | Central Africa | 14 | Middle East and Caucasus Region | 21 | Pacific Islands and Antarctic |
(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)
Separate threads for India, Indonesia and Nepal – see links below
(From WHO as at 31 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 152 (2006 – 109 with 74 deaths)
Australia
Canada
China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Nepal
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
United States of America
Link to news thread for 5 November (link News Reports for November 5 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.
Eleven in battle, voting set for Thursday; … for top WHO post
GENEVA (AFP): The World Health Organisation will select its new chief over the coming week, to lead the global struggle against challenges as diverse as a threatened flu pandemic, AIDS, medically-resistant diseases or rising chronic illness and dilapidated health care in poor countries. Eleven candidates from Africa, Asia, Europe and Latin America, medical doctors by training, are due to be examined by the UN health agency’s 34-nation executive board from Monday and whittled down to five.
The process will culminate in voting on a nominee by the WHO’s 193 member states on Thursday. The most prominent candidates include former French health minister and UN troubleshooter Bernard Kouchner, who helped found the medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF — Doctors Without Borders) in 1971, and Mexico’s reformist Health Minister Julio Frenck, a former WHO official who campaigned unsuccessfully for the post in 2003. Asian candidates are headed by China’s nominee, Margaret Chan, a former Hong Kong health minister and WHO official dealing with infectious diseases, and Shigeru Omi of Japan, the WHO’s regional director in Asia, who both have track records in dealing with SARS.
Pascoal Mocumbi, a former prime minister in Mozambique, is Africa’s only candidate. Europe has three others, including Spain’s Health Minister Elena Salgado. Other candidates come from Kuwait, Myanmar and Turkey. Kuwait’s Kazem Behbehani is one of the main contenders for the position.
Traditionally UN institutions follow an unwritten rule of rotating the geographical origin of their chiefs. Since 1973 the health agency has shifted exclusively between European and Asian hands. There are also trade-offs to be made with other posts, such as the newly elected UN Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon of South Korea, of the soon-to-be vacant slot of UN humanitarian chief held by a Norwegian.
“The selection of a new director general is a political process rather than one based on competences,” Jerry Norris of the US Hudson Institute think tank told the Financial Times. The post was vacated in May when South Korean Lee Jong Wook died suddenly after suffering a stroke. Lee, 57, the agency’s former anti-tuberculosis chief, was widely praised for mobilising the world against avian influenza during his three years in office, trying to make HIV/AIDS drugs cheaper and engaging in internal reform.
The WHO post demands a deft mix of managerial skills, medical knowledge and political acumen to navigate between the varying priorities of developing countries and those of wealthy nations, headed by the United States, that hold the agency’s purse strings.
With the advent of widespread travel, the incumbent also needs to marshal governments so that they react swiftly in unison to cross-border health threats. The UN health chief faces an expanding number of private actors in global health, including the pharmaceutical industry and its pricing and production priorities, billionaire philanthropists such as Bill Gates, a key driver in the fight against HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria, or the food and tobacco industries.
Like all their predecessors, the candidates are pledging to bolster the fight against infectious diseases and to “reform” the Geneva-based WHO and its six regional offices. But they also highlight the rising global “double burden” of chronic diseases such as heart ailments and diabetes. Many underline the need for the WHO to play greater role in building general health care in countries — an issue that has defeated previous chiefs — and in prevention.
The candidates also have their ideas on how to handle governments. Kouchner said recently he would draw from his humanitarian experience to make the WHO a more responsive body and called for “political will”. Frenck underlined his sensitivity to local needs and ability to work “for and with member states”. Omi, meanwhile, highlighted “political courage” when he advised the then WHO chief to launch the agency’s first-ever warning against travel — to Hong Kong and southern China — during the deadly SARS outbreak in 2003.
Outbreak of Dengue Fever in Saudi--- How convient,in light of the recent mystery fever at Al- Qasimi Hospital. Nov.4--- Not really much more info.
(Uganda) Bird flu test kits arrive
Sunday, 5th November, 2006 (link http://tinyurl.com/yxwz3q)
THE Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries has acquired bird flu test kits, writes Gladys Kalibbala.
The acquisition of the kits is part of the Government’s measures to prepare for a possible outbreak of Avian influenza.
Among the materials provided by Pan African Control of Epizootics are Anigen Rapid Ag. test kits, specimen tubes containing assay diluents buffer, sample collection swabs, disposable droppers and protective gear for surveillance teams in case of an outbreak.
The Acting Principal Veterinary Officer for Diagnostics and Epidemiology, Dr. Rose Ademun, recently headed the demonstration to district veterinary officers at Golf View Inn, Entebbe, on how tests should be carried out to ascertain the presence of bird flu in their districts.
Public Health Spokesman firmly says bird flu has yet to mutate
6 ¾ÄȨԡÒ¹ 2549 - link: http://tinyurl.com/yjq8su
… the bird flu strain has not mutated yet, and it cannot be transmissible between humans. He has asks people not to be too concerned over this matter.
…However, the plausible mutation of the H5N1 virus that is spreading in Thailand is a worrying issue, but Md. Suphan said the strain has not changed and it has not become more contagious.
However, the Spokesman has admitted that the strain may mutate in the future, but he has warned the general public no to be worried because every country is closely keeping an eye on this disease. In Thailand, the Department of Medical Sciences is continually conducting researches on the possible mutation of the virus, so the officials can promptly warn the people if changes occur.\\\
…People who have sighted a large number of dead poultry are asked to quickly inform the officials in order for the disease to be restrained on time.
Above was for THAILAND
------
Not bird flub, but….
THAILAND - Number of patients affected by inundation increases daily - http://tinyurl.com/y6kavc
Permanent Secretary for Public Health Prat Boonyawongvirot has sent out more than a hundred mobile medical units to treat the inundated victims in numerous villages around Thailand.
The Permanent Secretary said further that the number of patients is increasing at about 10,000 people daily, and the total number of patients since August 27th, 2006 is over more than 630,000 people. Diseases found in most of these patients include athlete’s foot, rashes, muscular aches and flu. Epidemic diseases that are cause by the inundation include conjunctivitis with 21,092 patients and diarrhea with 11,557 patients. However, public health officers have strictly controlled these epidemics already. They have guaranteed that the epidemics will not widely spread throughout the area.
10,000 people daily--- 630,000 since the end of August… nearly 1/3 of these with conjunctivitis…How can they guarantee the epidemics won’t widely spread? And, how can they say, with a straight face, that this isn’t “more contagious.” Sheesh… every thing but the athlete’s feet seems “flu related” to me.
Interesting though that the cases they (Thailand) believe fall into the “surveillance” category continues to decline - here is the link to their latest figues - 5 new cases over 3 days and only 5 waiting for test results.
AnnieB – at 04:11 What makes a case suspect? Not the one person getting ill only, but a bunch of people coming down. Do those “five waiting for the test results” mean five outbrakes waiting for test results?
I recall that conjunctivitis was a symptom in the Belgian and UK outbreaks of H7Nsomething…
NEWS - WHO - http://tinyurl.com/yx72fn - Just appeared on the WHO website:
Collecting, preserving and shipping specimens for the diagnosis of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection - Guide for field operations - October 2006 - WHO/CDS/EPR/ARO/2006.1 - This document is a work in progress and is based on the best information available at the time of production. The document will be updated regularly as more information becomes available.
My… WHO is really loquacious these days….
NEWS - HONG KONG, CHINA - http://tinyurl.com/yg7xj5 - Chinese scientists identify deadly gene in H5N1 - Mon Nov 6, 2006 5:12am ET
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Chinese scientists have identified a gene in the H5N1 bird flu virus which they say is responsible for its virulence in poultry, opening the way for new vaccines.
The Chinese researchers zeroed in on the virulent gene after analyzing two closely related strains of the H5N1 obtained from infected geese in southern Guangdong province in 1996 — one highly pathogenic in chickens and the other harmless.
Differences between the two strains were located in four genes, they found.
The scientists designed four genetically modified viruses each containing one of the four genes in question and tested them on laboratory chickens.
Only chickens infected with the modified virus containing the highly pathogenic gene died. The other chickens had no signs of disease, the scientists wrote in the November issue of the Journal of Virology.
How many types of H5N1 are there?
How can I post any news if you people keep beating me to it?
Halo all. Did anybody hear anything concerning the families test results from the 1 month old that died in Indonesia last month, or from the family of the Egyptian woman that died last month?
(Impossible for them to know for sure, since they are not monitoring all the places H5N1 may be in species/people. (like Africa?)And all test results are not being shared, right?)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H5N1 says, 3 subclades. Worth reading the whole article.
(There is also, on the left sidebar, main Flu Wiki stuff, in the Influenza Science section.)
NEWS - HONG KONG, CHINA From Taipei Soir (in French) - Rough translation - http://tinyurl.com/sdlb7 - In Geneva, the Chinese Health Minister, H.E. Mr. Gao Qiang, has, on Sunday morning (5 November 2006) met Mrs. Margaret Chan Fung Fu-chun for breakfast. H.E. Mr. Gao Qiang is confident and says Mrs. Chan has all the prerequisite qualities, as well as the experience and character, to win the WHO post; he nevertheless admitted he did not know how many countries would vote for her and for this reason intended to meet Health Ministers for lobbying purposes.
SIGH It really is not my day. Above are news coming out of CHINESE TAIPEI not HONG KONG, CHINA
I apologize, I’m sorry, I don’t want to cause a diplomatic clash… Need more coffee
News: US (Bloomberg)
Bush to Discuss Ways to Combat Bird Flu During Indonesia Visit
<snip>
Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) — U.S. President George W. Bush will discuss ways to combat bird flu during a meeting this month with his counterpart in Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, in the country most affected by the lethal virus.
Bush is scheduled to visit Indonesia on Nov. 20, Defense Minister Juwono Sudarsono told reporters in Jakarta today. The leaders will also focus on boosting cooperation on health, education and natural disaster management, Sudarsono said.
More than a third of the 152 human fatalities caused by the H5N1 strain of avian influenza recorded globally the past three years have occurred in Indonesia, where the virus has been found in fowl in 30 out of 33 provinces. Health authorities are trying to stem its spread to reduce chances of H5N1 mutating to become easily transmissible between people, sparking a lethal pandemic.
Australia’s Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organization said today that veterinarians from its main animal health laboratory will work with authorities and researchers in Indonesia to diagnose and monitor H5N1 there.
Australia’s AusAID international development agency contributed A$1.6 million ($1.2 million) for the two-year project, which aims to ensure that Indonesia’s lab network can rapidly diagnose H5N1, CSIRO said in an e-mailed statement.
The Australian Animal Health Laboratory at Geelong, near Melbourne, is one of about seven facilities globally used by the World Organization for Animal Health as a reference center for highly pathogenic avian influenza.
Researchers of both nations will visit each other’s labs for training and guidance in disease surveillance, the statement said.
<snip>
Commentary - Worcester, MA Telegram and Gazette (online edition)
When Fort Devens was ground zero of flu pandemic
Albert B. Southwick - Commentary
<snip>
It was by coincidence that on the same day the Telegram & Gazette carried a story about the plan to make the former Fort Devens into a new town, it had another story about the plans, or lack thereof, for dealing with a possible flu pandemic here in Massachusetts.
Stephen J. Comtois, a Republican running for a seat in the Massachusetts House, charged that “the pandemic flu preparedness bill has been collecting dust before the House Ways and Means Committee.” He added that “we want to prevent a pandemic before it strikes to ensure that the commonwealth has a sufficient amount of ventilators and has stockpiled food and medication.”
Now what do those two stories have in common? Only this — that Fort Devens was the U.S. Ground Zero of the flu pandemic that spread around the world in 1918, killing more people than died in World War I.
In early 1918, Fort Devens was one of the main centers of the U.S. war effort. On Sept. 1, its barracks were jammed with 45,000 soldiers waiting to be shipped to France. By the end of that month, Fort Devens was a charnel house filled with the dead and dying.
Bodies were being carted away like cordwood. More than 8,000 sick and dying men clogged its hospital, which had a capacity of 2,000. The extra bodies, living and dead, were stashed in halls, corridors and outlying buildings. Doctors were baffled. They had never seen anything like it.
Alarmed by the reports from Massachusetts, U.S. Surgeon General William Gorgas sent four prominent physicians to visit the base and tell him what was going on. They reported their horrified amazement at the sight of “hundreds of stalwart young men coming into the hospital in groups of 10 or more. Their faces soon wear a bluish cast; a distressing cough brings up blood-stained sputum. In the morning the dead bodies are stacked about the morgue like cordwood.”
One witness reported watching a pathologist perform an autopsy. It was a gruesome sight. When the chest was opened, the lungs were revealed to be blue and swollen with foamy surfaces. The pathologist, a Dr. William Welch, remarked, “This must be some kind of new infection — or plague.” He was correct.
After more than 8,000 Spaniards had died from it just in the month of May 1918, it was called the Spanish Flu or sometimes the Purple Death, from the bluish tinge shown on the skin and lungs of the victims.
From Fort Devens the plague spread quickly to Worcester County. By the middle of September, newspapers were reporting its ravages. Leicester reported 125 cases. Eight died in Millbury on one day. Westboro and Holden closed their schools. The Leominster hospital had to turn away people who were dying.
On Sept. 15, Worcester Mayor Pehr Holmes ordered fires lighted in all public school furnaces, in an effort to stem the disease. It had little effect.
At the end of September, the Worcester Board of Health essentially shut the city down. “All public, private and parochial schools, all theaters, motion picture houses, all places of amusement, all dance halls and public halls” were to close their doors until Oct. 7. That included the saloons. The churches were already closed after a ruling from the state. The board appealed for extra nurses at City Hospital, which was stretched to the limit and beyond. New graduate nurses were offered $4 a day, experienced nurses $60 a month, doctors $150 a month. At the behest of Mr. Holmes, City Hospital trustees voted to convert the Agricultural Society building in Greendale into an emergency hospital. It was ready within 10 days.
Public schoolteachers, their classrooms closed, volunteered as nurse assistants. They made beds, changed linens and helped out in various ways.
Mrs. Samuel Colton opened her Elm Street mansion to any emergency workers who needed a bed and a bath. Various organizations pitched in. The Catholic Women’s Club, the Blessed Sacrament Red Cross Auxiliary, the Zionist Organization of Worcester and several others did what they could during those grim days in October 1918.
A home on Harvard Street was hastily opened to offer help to children made orphans by the plague. The Worcester Telegram reported that “immeasurable good” was done in placing bereft tots in the homes of relatives and friends.
When the wave of deaths began to wane, Worcester quickly recovered. Perhaps 1,000 to 2,000 people died in Worcester County, but that was not nearly the toll experienced by other localities.
The 1918 flu epidemic was the worst such plague in modern history. It covered the globe and it was lethally communicable. It far exceeded the various other epidemics, whether yellow fever, smallpox, typhus or malaria.
Even the ravages of the Black Death of the 14th century fall short of the 1918 flu pandemic. Estimates of its global death toll range from 20 million to 40 million, most in Europe and Asia. By contrast, World War I killed 10 million to 15 million.
The United States lost perhaps 675,000 to the Purple Death, a far lower percentage than in some other places. Still, it has been estimated that one in every four Americans, including President Woodrow Wilson, were infected to some degree.
Few Americans remember the 1918 pandemic, but it is much in the minds of scientists and physicians who are warily watching the current outbreaks of bird flu in Asia. Bird flu also is viciously lethal. Half of its victims die. Thus far, however, it seems to be transmitted only by birds, not from person to person, as in 1918.
That could change. Viruses have a way of mutating. If the bird flu virus developed into a communicable human disease, the world might have another pandemic to deal with. In a world far more crowded than it was in 1918, the catastrophe can hardly be imagined.
If the charge is true that the state is lax in its preparation for a possible epidemic, a shake-up is in order.
Every day we read the grim news about North Korea, Iraq, Iran and the other global fever spots. But it may be that the worst threat to humankind is taking place at the viral level. If so, the laboratories will be on the front lines, not the United Nations diplomats.
Recombinomics Commentary
November 5, 2006
Virus are always mutating and changing with every new generation and new strains and substrains are always appearing, but what was crucial was to try to understand which strains were becoming dominant, Hall said.
A dominant strain of the bird flu virus could be an indication that it was becoming resistant to vaccines given to poultry. China vaccinated up to 8.2 billion poultry from January to September this year.
“Right now, there is not enough data to make a firm conclusion… but this is what the data is indicating,” Hall said.
The WHO would like to see the “hundreds, if not thousands of (bird flu) gene sequences” uploaded by the Ministry of Agriculture on a public data base, she said.
“The above comments by the WHO are ironic, since WHO likely has more sequences in its password protected private database than China has withheld. In August, Indonesia asked WHO to release over 700 sequences form human H5N1 isolates, which were password protected on WHO’s private H5N1 database at Los Alamos. These sequences became public instantly when the password protection was removed.
However, the number of sequences that have been withheld by WHO dwarfs these numbers or the numbers mentioned in the quote above regarding sequences in China. The comments above were precipitated by the recently published PNAS paper which has HA and PB2 sequences from 405 isolates collected in China in 2005 and 2006. Since each isolate has eight gene segments, these isolates contained 3240 sequences. However, only 556 sequences were released.
Thus, from this 2005/2006 series alone, 2684 sequences were withheld. Released sequences included 404 full or partial sequences from HA and 152 full sequences from PB2. No sequences were released for six of the eight gene segments, even though amantadine sensitivity of the M2 gene product was discussed in the published paper. Peer review journals generally require desposit of sequences discussed so the data can be independently verified.. Moreover, only a subset of the PB2 sequences were released, and most of the HA sequences were partial sequences.
‘’‘Similarly, earlier H5N1 sequences from the two labs who generated the above sequences, St Jude and Hong Kong University, have only released partial sequences of H5N1 isolates from Hong Kong, China, and Vietnam, even though these sequences have been published and some date back to 2000.
Remarkably, full sequences can be generated at no cost under the NIAID flu sequencing program, and St Jude has sequenced low path bird and human isolates under that program, but they have not completed any of the published H5N1 sequences under the NIAID program.’‘’
The influenza sequencing project, which recently complete full H5N1 sequences on samples submitted by the Capua lab (172 sequences have been released and 40 more are in the validation stage), requires publication of the data in a public database, as requested by WHO.
Most of the samples from the Capua lab were from Qinghai isolates collected in 2006 from countries that sent samples for confirmation by an outside lab. Many countries in Europe sent samples to the WHO affiliated lab in Weybridge. These sequences were placed in the WHO database, but only 8 sequences from one turkey have been released, in addition to 40 human sequences. Data presented at the WHO sponsored meeting in Italy however, discussed over 700 samples from Europe that were H5N1 positive, including the 80 isolates listed on phylogenetic trees. Thus, over 600 European H5N1 sequences have been hoarded and restricted from public access by the WHO database at Los Alamos.
Recently, over 300 sequences from H5N1 in China were released by the Beijing Genome Institute. These releases were from H5N1 isolates from poultry, wild birds, and swine in northern China collected between 1997 and 2004. Clearly, similar full sequences from all eight gene segments from birds from 2005 and 2006 would compliment the sequences that are public, as well as the sequences sequestered in the WHO private database. Moreover, H5N1 sequences from fatal infections in China in 2005 and 2006 have been released, but full sequences are lacking in these isolates as well as additional human and bird isolates described in Chinese Ministry Of Health report from the beginning of this year.
The released sequences contain clear evidence of transmission and tranportaion of H5N1 over a wide geographical region within China and to locations as far away as Europe and Africa. These are also regions of Asian genes in North American isolates, highlighting the role of recombination in the evolution of H5N1 worldwide.
The time for release of the sequences held in China, as well as the WHO private database, is long overdue. WHO should start by releasing the sequences it is hoarding and encourage its consultants to finish the sequences from published isolates and make those data public as soon as possible, which can be done in weeks through the free NIAID influenza sequencing project.”
Nimbus – at 08:12
That was a great commentary by Albert B. Southwick in the Worcester, MA, Telegram & Gazette.
Stay on the story, Mr. Southwick - there’s plenty more to write about. Hopefully the citizens of Worcester will now be more interested in learning more about what is being done now by their officials to mitigate the effects of the present possible upcoming pandemic.
Camp Devens was built for 35,000 men, and overcrowded with 45,000. That should give you some idea of how rampant the epidemic was spreading.
Klatu - at 08:49:
This really makes me angry.
Most of the samples from the Capua lab were from Qinghai isolates collected in 2006 from countries that sent samples for confirmation by an outside lab. Many countries in Europe sent samples to the WHO affiliated lab in Weybridge. These sequences were placed in the WHO database, but only 8 sequences from one turkey have been released, in addition to 40 human sequences. Data presented at the WHO sponsored meeting in Italy however, discussed over 700 samples from Europe that were H5N1 positive, including the 80 isolates listed on phylogenetic trees.
P.S. Klatu - the reason some of your post didn’t come out in bold is because it was two seperate paragraphs. They have to be individually done in 3 single apostrophe’s, or else it won’t work.
I posted an article about the UK wanting to order 3 million body bags yesterday. This article has a little more about it. Here are just some highlights.
3m body bags could be ordered in flu alert
..when it arrives, 25 per cent of the population could be infected…..
concern that mortuaries would run out of space to store bodies - meaning bags could be ordered to be kept at hospitals or by councils…. During the pandemic in 1918, 40 per cent of the population in Britain was taken ill and 2.5 per cent died. …. confidential report to the committee has warned that so many deaths would cause delays of up to 17 weeks in burying or cremating victims. …
The Government’s Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson has said that a British death toll of 750,000 was ‘not impossible’….
The worst recorded pandemic was the 1918–19 Spanish flu which killed 50 to 100million around the world. If a new outbreak killed the same proportion of the world’s greatly expanded population the toll would be more than 360million. …
The death rate could be a lot higher than is being publicly suggested by the Government. In Indonesia they have seen a 50% death rate amongst those infected with the lethal strain of the Bird Flu Virus. So up to 30,000,000 deaths in the UK are possible. …
In Indonesia, virus spreads among blood relatives
“No husbands and wives are infected; it’s all brothers and sisters, mothers and children,” says Ginting. She and others believe there must be a genetic component to susceptibility to the disease. ……
World Health Organization in which researchers said human-to-human transmission appears to be confined to genetically related people. People infected with the bird flu variant common in Indonesia seem to be able to infect only other people who carry the same genetic trait. In other words, birds give it to people, but people can give it only to blood relatives……
Bird flu is not an easy sickness or death. It starts with a high fever that keeps rising, immune to the effects of anti-fever medication, she says. Next comes difficulty breathing. People usually succumb within two or three days. And even when they’re on ventilators to pump air into their lungs, patients remain aware of what’s happening. “They were all conscious until they died, in a lot of pain,” Ginting says.
DennisC - at 09:46 - I’m not sure if I can cut and paste the 35 comments to the article from the site. Meaning, for privacy purposes. So I suggest everyone read them. 99% of the comments say this is scare mongering.
Commgroung - at 9:59: 99% of the comments say this is scare mongering.
The UK is laying out their “Plan B,” and a lot of people are not going to like it, or believe it, but I hope that the UK keeps rolling it out, nonetheless.
DennisC – at 09:46 — confidential report to the committee has warned that so many deaths would cause delays of up to 17 weeks in burying or cremating victims. …
Is it the ordering of the 3 million body bags story really new? I seem to recall there was a hoo-haa already some time in the spring about the “17 weeks delay in burying victims”. If not an entirely new story, why are they resurrecting it??? If the 3 million body bags story is new, but the 17 weeks delays is old news, how long did it take them to calculate and then order the bags - months???
Do I need even more coffee?
FrenchieGirl – at 11:03
Governments work slowly. I think they have known all along the problems (delays in burials, the lack of supplies and so on). The problem is then people are first exposed to what the pandemic may be like. they go “into denial”. It takes a while for people to believe how bad it may be. The first have to mentally go through all the alternatives before they want to believe the numbers.
Wheeling (WV?) Story on preparedness: It might sound impossible, but you should be prepared for 10 days… before help arrives from the Feds. groan. I wrote back and suggested 3 or 4 weeks, then extend.
http://www.theintelligencer.net/Community/articles.asp?articleID=12514
Poor translation- I will let the Indo wizard look this one up.
INDO
Other the patient suspect bird flu died. This time casualties were named Juanto, villagers Kalimindi, Purworejo Klampok, Banjarnegara, East Java. This man died when being treated in Margono Sukarjo space of the isolation of the regional Public Hospital, Purwokerto, East Java.
COMMENT: My concern is (and always has been) that; yes, there is dengue and yes, there is malaria and other diseases. However, history has shown that in the early stages of a panflu outbreak, these diseases ‘mask’ the presence of panflu because of ‘presumptive diagnosis’. The answer is rigorous testing; testing is expensive. So most likely, we will not become aware of a sustained outbreak of panflu until it is too late. Not to belabour the point, if you have 100 sick, you test them all, and 50 are +ve; what is wrong with the others?? Now if you are a poor country and can only test 25… well you get the idea. I’m just not confident we’re testing for H5N1 like we should.
WHO should be testing for H5N1 at the major outbreaks where flu symptoms are being presented—that’s what you do in stage 3 of a pandemic alert. Is that too much to ask?
I posted this on the Nepal II thead and I apologize for repeating but I am feeling frustrated this Monday a.m.
DennisC — at 11:14. Thank you. Yes they do work slowly… here is the BBC article about the “17 weeks delay in burials” dated April 2006. http://tinyurl.com/y8h5b6. And if that’s as fast as they could work it out, how fast is it going to be when they encounter their firt human BF clusters? And they’ve upped their number from 320,000 dead in April to 750,000 now???
- I definitely need more coffee
DennisC!!!! You did copy/paste from the article yes? Please tell me you did… I’ve just re-opened your Daily Mail link and your last para that you quoted with 30,000,0000 is not there anymore
- Please tell me I need to swallow the coffee beans whole and undiluted
yes, I just cut and paste most of the time. I think it should be a 3 million number. You might want to cross check from my post yesterday or check the link to that article in the summary at the top of today’s thread:
(notice there it is spelled instead of just a numerical number)the 30 million number was down in the comment sections.
Cottontop---Regarding your question about the two year old in Dubai-----
The two nurses that treated him are now sick
Check out yesterdays news thread for for info.
There is a strong india connection here.
Could someone please google’‘’Mike Davis -Fear and money in Dubai”
Scroll down to An indentured majority
I think there will be some Oh My moments
DennisC - all right I get it. Your last paragraph was a comment from a reader but it was not the article itself. The reader confused the 50% CFR with 50% of the population… and extrapolated wrongly.
Pfewww, says she, wiping her brow… OK I swear tomorrow morning I’ll make sure the coffee brew is extra strong…
witness – at 12:18 Do you mean this case?:
From Dennis C: World Health Organization in which researchers said human-to-human transmission appears to be confined to genetically related people. People infected with the bird flu variant common in Indonesia seem to be able to infect only other people who carry the same genetic trait. In other words, birds give it to people, but people can give it only to blood relatives……
So what, it’s okay because ONLY blood relatives are getting it from each other? The fact that ANYONE is getting it from ANOTHER HUMAN is a problem, don’t you think? How long until there doesn’t have to be a genetic component to make it transmissable H2H?
that’s weird: what happened to my name?
Nov 6, 2006
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON — The government has approved the use of firefighting foam to quickly kill chickens if there is an outbreak of deadly bird flu in commercial poultry, an idea researched by animal health officials in North Carolina and Delaware.The Agriculture Department says water-based foam can be an alternative to carbon dioxide, which has traditionally been used to quickly kill large quantities of birds.
Gassing involves more workers and exposes them to potentially infected birds, and it can be difficult to maintain a high enough concentration of gas to kill the bird, according to the department’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.”
I guess that’s one way to choke the chicken.
NEWS - WHO - WHO Executive Board shortlists candidates for Director-General - http://tinyurl.com/yaaca5
6 NOVEMBER 2006 | GENEVA — The Executive Board of the World Health Organization, meeting in Geneva, today agreed on a shortlist of five candidates for the post of Director-General.
The short list of five candidates reads as follows (in alphabetical order):
On Tuesday, the Board will interview the five candidates, and on Wednesday it will nominate one of them for the post of Director-General of the Organization. This nomination will be submitted to the World Health Assembly, which will meet for a one-day special session on Thursday to appoint the next Director-General.
Klatu – at 12:54
I laughed with innapropriate gusto (for a lady of my age and delicate upbringing) at your final comment. Tee, hee.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2006-11-05-indonesia-flu-cover_x.htm http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2006-11-05-vietnam-flu-cover_x.htm
The above are articles in USA Today. Forgive me if someone else has posted these.
PeeWee Herman may be the next Super Hero!
Thinlina at 12:26 ---Yes, that is the one. More info on yesterday’s thread.
FrenchieGirl – at 12:58 wrote:
NEWS - WHO - WHO Executive Board shortlists candidates for Director-General - http://tinyurl.com/yaaca5
F.Y.I. The WHO director-general has the final authority to change the pandemic threat level up or down . The DG’s authority trumps all other members.
Here is what the Chinese have been up to while hoarding the sequences…
Chinese scientists identify deadly gene in H5N1 http://tinyurl.com/yeztuk
…”Now that we know the special role of the (highly pathogenic) NS1 gene, we can think about developing a vaccine,” Bu said, adding that a vaccine which neutralizes the gene known as NS1 could be quickly designed”…
Now, isn’t that special
Wow, the Chinese finaly figured it out. Perhaps they finaly read the Wikipedi article on NS1
“…The NS1 protein of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 viruses circulating in poultry and waterfowl in Southeast Asia is currently believed to be responsible for the enhanced virulence of the strain. H5N1 NS1 is characterized by a single amino acid change at position 92. By changing the amino acid from glutamic acid to aspartic acid, researchers were able to annul the effect of the H5N1 NS1. This single amino acid change in the NS1 gene greatly increased the pathogenicity of the H5N1 influenza virus.[4]..”
or perhaps they finaly read the CDC article:
Novel Avian Influenza H7N3 Strain Outbreak, British Columbia by Martin Hirst et al. Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal from National Center for Infectious Diseases (part of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) Issue Vol. 10, No. 12 December 2004 (published November 8, 2004) Retrieved from “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NS1_Influenza_Protein”
Didn’t we already know all this for a few years?
Like, from the poster know as NS1 here on the ‘Wiki ?
All of the above…
DennisC – at 14:15
“Wow, the Chinese finaly figured it out. Perhaps they finaly read the Wikipedi article on NS1
By changing the amino acid from glutamic acid to aspartic acid, researchers were able to annul the effect of the H5N1 NS1. This single amino acid change in the NS1 gene greatly increased the pathogenicity of the H5N1 influenza virus.”
“The recent outbreak of bird flu in Turkey has thrown up viruses with mutations that threaten humans.
The polymerase mutation is one of the ten genetic changes that gave rise to the 1918 pandemic flu virus. Like the 223-haemoagglutinin mutation, it signals adaptation to humans, says Alan Hay, director of a WHO influenza laboratory at the NIMR. “There is this glutamic acid–lysine flip,” he explains. “Glutamic acid is associated with flu-virus replication in birds, and lycine is in primates.”
If the Chinese have adopted the WHO pandemic plan, based on the New Zealand model which includes Internet monitoring, then you can assume this and other sites are actively monitored for better spin control. My 2-cents.
Klatu – at 14:33
Well that didn’t work like I wanted it to.
More info on the UK BBC2 Horizon documentary. Give you the oportunity to:-
WATCH: Five things you need to know ASK: Pandemic experts answer your questions VOTE: Is it all media hype? DECIDE: Three ethical dilemmas
Should we co-ordinate some questions we’d like answers on from ?:
Peter Dunnill, Professor of Biochemical Engineering at University College London John Oxford, Professor of Virology at the University of London Dr Jim Robertson, National Institute for Biological Standards and Control Gina Samaan, Epidemiologist, World Health Organisation Dr Jim Wilde, Medical College of Georgia
(Thailand) CHIANG RAI SIGHTINGS OF DEAD BIRDS (link http://tinyurl.com/yzsoav )
Migration of swallows raises fears of avian flu THIRAWAT KHAMTHITA
Chiang Rai _ The annual migration of swallows to the small town of Mae Sai has got locals here fearing a possible outbreak of the deadly H5N1 strain of avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu. Tens of thousands of the birds arrived in Mae Sai municipality two weeks ago. And since then, fears have been growing among residents scared that droppings from the migratory birds could spread the deadly virus.
“They nest on trees, power cables and rooftops in and around the gems market,” said Kangwan Kudipan, a gems vendor. “We wake up to the stench of bird droppings every morning.”
And recent sightings of dead birds have raised concerns. The tambon Mae Sai administrative organisation, however, is taking measures to allay any fears.
The authorities have been spraying the roads with disinfectant every evening to try and prevent any possible spread of the virus and are discussing other ways to deal with the birds.
They have even lit fire-crackers and sprayed chemicals used to wipe out mosquitoes and their breeding-grounds, but all these measures seem to scare the birds away only temporarily. Fire trucks have also been called in to spray-clean the droppings-stained roads and local authorities have been distributing copies of a manual on bird flu prevention.
Prasit Rawichai, a member of tambon Mae Sai administrative organisation, said authorities are still looking for ways to scare the birds away for good. Livestock officials from Mae Sai have been contacted to take the droppings for avian-flu testing. Results are expected soon. Early lab tests of bird carcasses, however, have shown no trace of bird flu.
Chief of the Livestock Development Department’s disease control bureau, Nirundorn Aungtragoolsuk, tried to ease concerns, saying bird flu had never been detected among swallows since the country was first hit by the outbreak of the deadly virus in early 2004.
“The birds could be infected with the H5N1 virus and become bird flu carriers, but the chances are very low,” he said, “because swallows normally do not associate with local fowl and rarely visit chicken farms, which are a major source of the bird flu virus.”
Thinlina @ 06:01
Sorry, just getting started on my day (Tue 7th) here in NZ so missed your question earlier ;-)
If you go to the link for the Thailand surveillance site, they give the criteria for what is a suspect case. I checked the site given the figures in the article above it about the increase in flu cases etc. If any of these ILI’s meet the criteria, they would show on this site. But, as I mentioned, the number of cases is going down - about 2 months ago they were getting 20–30 new cases a day.
* Be advised, the following is a press release. The information may or may not be of value
Mon, 06 Nov 2006
BOSTON, Nov. 6 /PRNewswire/ — “Replikins, Ltd. has completed a comprehensive quantitative analysis of H5N1 “bird flu” peptide sequences found in humans infected with H5N1 in the past nine years. The data, obtained from public sources, included 1,455 complete sequences from human specimens. The company has found a continuous and statistically significant increase in the concentration of peptide sub-sequences (previously linked to epidemics) in the H5N1 virus over the past nine years, suggesting a heightened potential for an epidemic outbreak in humans. The replikin concentration in H5N1 has been found to rise steadily, by a factor of 2.5 over the period covered, from 1997 to 2006, from a mean count of 1.9 to the current count of 4.8 units per 100 amino acids (Replikin Count™).
Over the period covered by the study, the mortality rate in human H5N1 cases has in fact also increased by a multiple (2.3 times), from 26 percent in 1997 to 60 percent in 2006, a rise comparable to the increase in the concentration of the replikin sub-sequences.While a direct causal relationship has not yet been shown, each previous increase in the concentration of replikin protein sub-sequences in flu viruses has been associated with strain-specific influenza epidemics that have occurred in the great pandemics of the last century: in 1918, 1957 and 1968. The same structure of the replikin peptide sub-sequences in influenza now can be traced back from the present to 1917. This conserved structure may be a key to the design of synthetic vaccines whose composition would not have to be changed every year.” - excerpt
Chinese scientists identify deadly gene in H5N1
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061106/ts_nm/birdflu_china_gene_dc
snip~
The Chinese researchers zeroed in on the virulent gene after analyzing two closely related strains of the H5N1 obtained from infected geese in southern Guangdong province in 1996 — one highly pathogenic in chickens and the other harmless.
_______________________________________________________ comment: they’ll think it’s all over now
uk bird – at 15:19
The BBC vote is interesting. I took it and it gave the result as 71% threat and 28% hype. It’s higher than I would expect, but its an online poll, so its not just votes from the UK, but from anywhere.
neber mind other sleuths were on the case before me ;-)
Another Indonesian villager dies of bird flu-like symptoms Another Indonesian villager dies of bird flu-like symptoms
“A 17-year old resident of Kalimandi village in Banjarnegara, in Indonesia’s Central Java province, died of a disease suspected of bird flu Monday morning.
The results of tests conducted on Juwanto’s blood had shown that there was reason to believe he was suffering from bird flu, Hartono, director of the local Margono Soekarjo Hospital said. Juwanto was previously a patient of Immanuel Hospital in Banjarnegara. …
Mistinem, 32, a resident of Kaliurip village, also in Banjarnegara district, died of bird flu last Oct. 13. She died after being treated for 12 hours at the Margono Soekarjo Hospital. She had been ill since Oct. 8. “
did any see where americans in honk konk were warned to stock up for 3 months?Also says chan tops the shortlist for D.G.Its in the south china mornibg post.a registrating site.www.scmp.com didnt know americans were “warned”,their words.
hong kong!
Treyfish- LOL! Thanks for the accidental laught.
And I forgot what I was going to say!
those two bumps were me. Hows that for laughing?! My computer got back at me.
China scientists call bird flu paper “unscientific”
Tue Nov 7, 2006 12:44 AM GMT (link here )
BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese government scientists have rejected international scientists’ claims that a new strain of H5N1 bird flu has emerged in coastal China and may spread across Asia and Europe, state media reported late on Monday.
The director of China’s National Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory, Chen Hualan, and the director of influenza research at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shu Yuelong, said no “Fujian-like” strain of bird flu had spread among the country’s birds and human victims.
“This viewpoint and conclusion have no scientific basis,” Chen told the official Xinhua news agency, rejecting a paper published last week in the U.S. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (www.pnas.org). [more …]
Treyfish – at 19:57
This site is subscription only. Can you excerpt? I saw the blurb on the home page, and it clearly says they are being told to prep for three months.
Sorry ,Edna Mode.I cant pay them 51$ to see it.I tried to look in there too.Those swine!i WAS surprised they were warned and its dated today.i thought warned was strong word.
US citizens in HK told to stockpile for bird flu outbreak, Nov 7th, 2006
“An advisory has been sent out to all 60,000 registered US citizens in the former British colony urging them to prepare the stockpiles ahead of the coming winter flu season.
It suggests stockpiling 4.5 litres of water per person per day and to prepare water purification equipment in case of complete infrastructure breakdown, the South China Morning Post reported.
The advisory also suggests they stock up on non-perishable foods, soap, alcohol-based hand wash, medicines, vitamins, flashlights and a portable radio, the newspaper said.”
Here you go, Treyfish, is this what you wanted?
Ask nicely next time. (just kidding…lol)
Tuesday, November 7, 2006
Flu survival plan for US citizens in Hong Kong
BARCLAY CRAWFORD
US citizens in Hong Kong have been warned to build an emergency three-month stockpile of food, water and medicine as part of a survival plan in case of a bird flu pandemic. The US State Department sent an advisory warning diplomatic and consular posts around the world about the impending flu season.
Last week, a team of Hong Kong and US scientists released a report which claimed they had found a new strain of the bird flu virus H5N1 in the area, a claim Beijing disputes.
The communiqué “Pandemic influenza: preparing for possible shelter-in-place”, called on government employees and other US citizens to store non-perishable foods and 4.5 litres of water per person per day. The advisory also said that in the event of “complete infrastructure breakdown” water might need to be purified, and gives instructions on purification, including using Clorox bleach - which it said “isn’t just a laundry aid, it’s a lifesaver”.
Emergency supplies include prescription medicines, soap and alcohol-based hand wash, medicines for fever, a thermometer, vitamins, flashlights and a portable radio.
The advisory was received by all the estimated 60,000 US citizens registered with the consulate in Hong Kong.
A spokesman said the advisory was not intended to spread fear or alarm and the State Department had no information about whether bird flu could mutate into a killer virus in humans this winter.
“This is just to be prudent and to remind people to remain vigilant in the yearly flu season.”
JV, you beat me to it! lol
Thanks ya’ll!Yes, they have been “warned” huh?State dept says dont worry.Now i know who warned them.
anon_22 -
I just went to Newsnow!
AAARRRGGGG!!!
I think it’s interesting (worrisome?) that they are being urged to do this “ahead of the flu season.” Anyone else?
I was just going to post this.
I don’t know that the timing in and of itself is worrisome.
But that someone in TPTB is actually admitting that we need at least three months stockpiled.
Who issued the report again?
http:hongkong.usconsulate.gov/ci …2006110301.html thanks teresa42! hope it doesnt scroll
You have to admit they are in a higher risk area than you guys. As in, anything that happens, they will have a lot less forewarning.
Who issued the report again
That’s the PNAS paper discussed here
Do-it-yourself skin patches could replace shots Developer of experimental drug proposes mailman could deliver vaccine
Charles Dharapak / AP Vladimir Frolov, formulation manager at Iomai Corporation, which is developing needle-free vaccines displays a research sample patch containing inactivated flu vaccine at their headquarters in Gaithersburg, Md.
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Sorry,something went wrong on copy key. See url at MSNBC http://tinyurl.com/yb5ws3
anon_22 – at 23:21 You have to admit they are in a higher risk area than you guys. As in, anything that happens, they will have a lot less forewarning.
I wouldn’t go so far as to say a “lot less” forewarning. Some less, but given the models on spread a la modern air travel, not enough to justify sending this message to some U.S. citizens but not all.
That was me. Sorry ‘bout that.
anon_22 – at 23:21 You have to admit they are in a higher risk area than you guys. As in, anything that happens, they will have a lot less forewarning.
I don’t think we have to accept that a pandemic will arise far from US shores. For all we know, it could originate in this country and spread worldwide with the US at its nexus - of course, that isn’t likely - but it isn’t impossible. Who gets advance notice and who gets caught unawares may be nothing more than the luck of the draw.
When dealing with the unknown, nothing is impossible.
Hi team - I am going to create a News Summary but it won’t be for about another 30–40 minutes, so carry on posting here in the meantime and I will start the new thread when I have finished.
Cheers and thanks
will close due to Forum speed.