What is this? Unbelieveable. If there’s going to be any global misinformation thing, no one will believe when something really happens.
“will tell meetings of senior news executives”
Just a little “surprise” at some invited forum or conference; no surprise now though, eh?
(Reminds me of when word would get out through the grapevine that the state inspectors were coming for the annual “surprise” nursing home inspection..)
(I wish tptb would be less control-freaked-out about wanting to be able to predict and get a jump on molding the public reaction to pandemic
and a heck of a lot more concerned with the practical, lasting, consequences of unprepared people, families, regions, getting blindsided and impacted by a pandemic virus, and JIT supply chain and other collateral impacts of pandemic, and, creating image of bad character for ptb knowing and not warning, and loss of trust in government and ptb. Worry about Outrage over bodies piling up, - if nothing else gets through to tptb - and no; I don’t mean put, “Keep media from reporting that bodies are piling up” on the to-do list, as the solution! )
You know, I said months ago that when its all over we will have a long list of people to sting up and blame for “our” unpreparedness. They are all so worried about people panicking and how they will react. Wait till the survivors get a hold of them, then they can experience some real panic!
I am trying to understand the reason why they are doing this exercise. I do not think it is to educate the media because a conference regarding terminology and educating about what a pandemic is could do this a lot more easily than what they are proposing.
So they are going to give “false” or “test” information to the media. Are governmental officials expecting the reporters to submit the articles they would write from this information and the ones the feds like the best would get a prize at the end? (ie they would be the ones that would get the information/data from the feds if a pandemic would begin to unfold)? Are they using this exercise to determine their goto media person/people?
Annoyed Max @ 12:34 - You are so right about the blame game that will be played after an outbreak.
I am so frustrated. I cannot get my computer to open the file at the government website so I can see the new plan. Could somebody give me a quick summary?
This is why I don’t own a gun. I would probably spend time in prison for murdering my computer.
History Lover – at 13:22 - I had problems with it too. try going to the OSHA website and use the link at the top of the page. Once it opens, go to the document link on the list, right click, and select save link as and save the PDF file to your desktop. Then it will open. Something about page 10 hangs up viewing it on line, but worked locally.
TRay75 @ 13:44 - Thanks TRay. I tried it, but it still didn’t work so I sent my husband the pandemic.gov link and asked if he could download the information. I would really like to know what they have changed.
Is being technologically inept a good or a bad defense for computer-murder?
You can download the pdf . . .
Dr. Niman is giving more hints on www.curevents.com I’m wondering if WHO will go to stage 4. Dr. Niman hinted that he might speed up his prepping.
Tink – at 14:28
What time, and which thread?
Tink – at 14:28 Dr. Niman is giving more hints on www.curevents.com I’m wondering if WHO will go to stage 4. Dr. Niman hinted that he might speed up his prepping.
If I see Niman at the grocery store again, I’ll ask him.
I’m not sure what they are practicing. To see if the media can broadcast an emergency. I think that the’ve done that for real on 9/11. I think the time would be better spent getting the average world citizen to prepare on their own. Just my opinion.
I’m not sure what they are practicing. To see if the media can broadcast an emergency. I think that the’ve done that for real on 9/11. I think the time would be better spent getting the average world citizen to prepare on their own. Just my opinion.
I think what they are trying to do is a tabletop exercise similar to the ones done for States, but now involving the media. This is going to be a very important element, that the media a) is finally made to come to grips with this whole pandemic issue, and b) work through what are the best ways of delivering news in a pandemic, and what pitfalls to avoid.
9/11 was different. Despite the horrendous nature of the emergency, bombs and planes and collapsing buildings are macroscopic and easy to understand in an instant. Not so viruses and incubation periods, and R0, and CFR, and social distancing.
The media would need a lot of practice. Let them make all their mistakes now in simulations so they will make less if and when a pandemic happens.
Anon 22:
Please share what you know about bombs on 9–11 or is that a slip up? Agree with you otherwise.
From the page 2 of the updated pandemic plan:
We are building a national stockpile of pandemic vaccines, antiviral drugs and other supplies needed to respond to a potential pandemic, and we are subsidizing state efforts to purchase antivirals. Thirty-three states have already placed orders.
Ok, so the public health community is convinced that antivirals and vaccines will save us. However, as of Nov. 13, 2006:
This situation needs to be discussed by us with our local public health officials wherever we can find them. They need to understand that it will be lovely if we have the time to receive these orders, or indeed to place orders for the 17 states that have not yet done so (!?). They also need to understand that they need to have plans in place now for school closures and other sheltering-in-place strategies just in case time runs out before these “orders” become actual physical deliveries of the magic bullets they are hoping for.
Ok…. This should be interesting.
More pondering…..
This section of the new pandemic plan just does not ring true with me…. humor me please & follow along..:
In early 2007, a team of pandemic flu experts and communicators will tell meetings of senior news executives that human-to-human transmission of H5N1 has been identified in a village overseas. Later in the day, they will be told the disease has spread across a region overseas. And finally, they will be told that human cases have been reported in the United States.
The announcements will be fake, part of an exercise to test how the media – and the experts – will respond should the day come when similar announcements have to be made for real. The two sides will work through the challenges of getting and reporting timely, accurate information.
One challenge is how to keep the public informed, without undue alarm, in situations where there is high interest and little new information, situations that could develop, for instance, while waiting for the results of confirmatory testing. The exercise will be repeated in six other cities, reaching national, regional, Hispanic and African-American media.
Never in my life have I seen the word “fake” used in such an official document. Something just doesn’t ring true here. This is not the language customarily used to describe a tabletop exercise. But having said things this way, would they want to be able to possibly later say something like “we told you it was fake”?
One thing I think we can all agree on is that the international media is very, very, good at doing its job. They don’t really need hellp. And the media is highly competitive. They’ll cover this event with everything they have. Each media outlet will compete to have the best reporters, and the best experts, on the story. Which leads me to wonder whether media outlets are already jockying for position and bidding on the pandemic experts which they will be featuring on their reports. We are used to seeing military experts quickly brought on and retained when we go on a war footing. What if the media is jockying right now to buy the best talent in the areas of virology and epidemiology? What if graphics people are being lined up to create pandemic maps for broadcast backdrops? If word of this got out now, what would be said? Well, if an announcement has been made that there will be a “fake” pandemic exercise involving the media in early 2007, and that answer will dampen most of the follow-on interest. Most, but not all.
Leo7 – at 17:41
Please share what you know about bombs on 9–11 or is that a slip up? Agree with you otherwise.
:-) I meant crashes, explosions, things that go ‘boom’ etc/ Sorry.
Pixie 18:14
So the US citizens in Hong Kong are sent emails telling them to prepare for 12 weeks before winter, but OTOH the US is planning on holding fake media drills in early 2007? Maybe it is my long days at work but something seems odd to me here but I don’t know what! Pixie you can humor me and straighten me out!
Pixie – at 18:14
I have to say I haven’t seen that level of knowledge or enthusiasm for flu or pandemic related story. That’s just me.
Irrespective of that, a pandemic situation is a long-running extremely complex high stress situation, and therefore high chance of mass hysteria - I mean the latter in a descriptive not derogatory way. Think of your own adjustment reactions whenever you learnt something new about this virus eg the number of people who won’t get care. Now think of it not just as something that might happen but is already happening, probably in your own community. Think of the 99.9% of people who have not prepped, all of them suddenly having massive adjustment reactions at the same time.
In those times, the way that people receive their news, the wording, sequence, nuances, will make a big difference to what actions people will take.
Think of our forum’s response to the US consulate 12-week advisory fiasco.
The media will need all of their skills and then some, to help prevent more secondary and tertiary adverse reactions, IMO.
Pixie – at 18:14
I’m with you on this. There is something odd about it. I just can’t put my finger on it though.
Using the word “fake” as opposed to “drill” or “exercise” or “simulation” is odd. Was this translated from a different language perhaps?
If it was translated, that God the original transcript wasn’t Indonesian. ;-)
that = thank
geez!
Reminds me of the most frequently uttered line on the Science Fiction channel, “What the h--- is that?!” I’m with JWB and Pixie- this is most certainly a trip to Funky Town.
anon_22 @18:48 “In those times, the way that people receive their news, the wording, sequence, nuances, will make a big difference to what actions people will take.” I agree. Who writes this stuff? Put a thousand chimps in a room with a thousand typewriters and, eventually, they will write a revision to a pandemic readiness plan? OMG- BBRWFK, ASAP.
Influentia2 – at 18:47
I think whoever wrote the piece needs to go back to writing classes for government employees 101. :-)
Lesson #1 call everything by its proper name.
What is a ‘fake announcement’? Does that mean whoever was going to do the announcing will pretend to announce but don’t?
Does ‘fake’ mean that the content is false but the intention of announcement real?
Or is the content fictitious but they will announce if as if it was real to the media, who won’t know it is an exercise?
If that is the case, and the media doesn’t know that it is fake, how are the two sides supposed to work through the challenges of getting and reporting timely, accurate information.
etc etc etc…
:-)
The more I turn the story over in my head—I see what ANON22 is referring to-cause we get excited from time to time and we know data! But Pixie comes out on top with the speculation on the word “fake.” It’s odd, especially in context of the rest of the pages which is written conversationally, but maintains a relevant standard. I can hear a proof reader throwing up about now.
It say’s it’s a report from Sec. Leavitt. Did he write it?
My conclusion, for what it’s worth, is just a bad choice of a word. It is somewhat funny, that they are doing this drill, to prevent this very thing!
Maybe it was done on purpose, to show it is actually needed!
Like anon_22 said, now is the time to get the reporting down pat. Little screwups, just like this one, can have and do, a big effect.
I suggest a ten minute time lapse for all panflu related stories via the media outlets. It must first be filtered and dissected through the fluwiki!
Pixie commented on the use of the word, “fake.” When I read this word, it sent bells ringing for me. Maybe it is their way of staying with the “6th grade message.”
It brought me straight back to the document from DHS (link below) of Critical Infrastruture — page 82.
“Remember the STARCC Principle.” Excellent principle! This will help citizens tremendously …
http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/pdf/CIKRpandemicInfluenzaGuide.pdf
Argyll.
When I saw it at the pandemicfludotgov website yesterday I was surprised because it was a nat’l holiday. Who did they ring in/get to work (on a long weekend) to post that? Then we hear that Tamiflu has serious side effects; then OSHA comes out with new guidelines. All in the wake of the 12 vs 2 week prep fiasco.
They’ve been busy little bees.
JWB – at 19:15
I suggest a ten minute time lapse for all panflu related stories via the media outlets. It must first be filtered and dissected through the fluwiki!
THAT should definitely go into the Wiki quote thread!!
JWB 18:59
I may have had a better chance understanding this whole fake announcement ordeal if it had been an Indonesion translation:) Which reminds me that it is time for the dates on the news links to change……..So much to do….
Influentia2 – at 19:47
LOL
Do you think this might have been written by someone who had just been transferred from the ‘watch Indonesian news’ desk?
Anon_22 19:50
No, because if it had been written by someone transferred from the “watch Indonesian news desk” it may have had made better sense to me:) I am used to reading and thinking over and over with an Indonesian article but not so used to it when reading English. Maybe if I put the fake announcement in the translator and go backwards I will get it, then again maybe not. Back to the Indonesia thread and something I can understand.
I have been in the government 21 years, and I have seen exercises, simulations, and practice events, but have never read about a fake one….
I read something on Monotreme’s site a coupla days ago (have been trying to find it again - can’t - grrr.) I’d discussed it before here; a troubling account of how the BBC planned to put staff at the head of the line for Tamiflu. Now, on the one hand, I see that making sure that reporters ‘in the field’ have the utmost protection makes altogether good sense. On the other hand, if this is being used as soft coercion - now c’mon, I already know I’m a cynic - in order to color the reporting, I find it troubling. The fact is, we won’t know the difference, and to be fair, they might not either.
The fact that I read this only days before this latest ‘fake’ news release (NOT termed drill, exercise, model - unfortunately?) news broke really has me thinking about just what they’re thinking about here, and what this ‘fake’ story to the ‘media’ is really about.
Correction - Hov’t would put BBC at head of line… DARN! I wish Monotreme had a search function!
Hov’t = Gov’t.
Influentia2 – at 20:11
I put “fake announcement” into toggletext, which came up as “Palsu pengumuman” in Indo. Back into English it was:
“Falsely the announcement”
Make more sense?
:-)
gardner – at 20:22 We might all do well to toggletext more often - in many languages.
Wolf-
Monotreme is travelling today and will return to site updates on Thursday.
Double Typo on footer graphic of Page 12 of the PDF.
September 2006 just in the center of the bottom reads:
Should be
Sep 2006- FDA Issues Guidance to Industry For Development of Cell-based Viral Vaccines
gardner 20:22
I was kidding about trying that gardner but now when I am confused with an English article I will head straight to toggletext. Clear as a bell when it is translated from Indo:) Maybe someone should look into getting an Indonesian writer for the news desk right away. Thank you…slinking back to Indo thread again..
NS1 – at 20:27 I wouldn’t bother him with it, anyway. I need to start ‘saving’ and quit b****ing :)
“The announcements will be fake, part of an exercise to test how the media – and the experts – will respond should the day come when similar announcements have to be made for real.”
Should be: Falsely the announcements will be made, as part of an exercise to test how the media – and the experts – will respond should the day come when similar announcements have to be made for real.
Got it!!!
I went on the pandemic flu website and pulled up the same report. It is legitimate, although I agree with you that the use of the word fake seems wierd.
But…
Is anyone else bothered by the end of that sentence?
“…when similar announcements have to be made for real.”
for real?????
Perhaps the announcement won’t be fake at all. Maybe TPTB just want everyone who is actively watching these boards and anticipating something, to believe it IS a fake announcement. Don’t know what the reason would be right now, the thought just popped into my head when I first read this info.
NS1 - you caught those typos too.
I think the whole document has the feeling of being a bit rushed, paniced even. Not to the U.S. public (so don’t sweat it DH&HS) but to us, it certainly does.
I mean, who wants to make your case that we are “prepared” as a nation by stating that only 33 states have even placed orders for antivirals/vaccines, and that we will have only enough (and they clearly enumerate the numbers) to cover only a small fraction of the population? That was not reassuring risk communication to moi.
Then they toss in a section that reads like somebody wrote it in a very rushed manner.
All I can say is somebody cache this pandemic plan before it goes the way of the HK announcement.
Does anybody else think this “fake” pandemic exercise might be the easiest explanation offered in order to cover any movements between now and after the holidays (including the hiring of “experts”)?
It stuns me that the word “fake” was used vice “simulation”. In the first sentence “a team of pandemic flu experts and communicators”…what is a “communicator”? I’m thinking a Star Trek walkie talkie. I’ve looked at plenty of job announcement for the Gov. and “communicator” was not one of the classifications. “Public Affairs Officer” - yes… “Information Officer” - yes…”communicator”…no. This message reads like no other government document I’ve ever read…and I’ve read a host of them. Before becoming a teacher I worked for the Feds, as have the previous two generations of my family. I’ve read plenty. This is not dry enough or technical enough to be genuine. For the government to announce it’s beginning a dis-information campaign is insane. Is it possible they were just hacked?
They weren’t hacked. IMHO they’re scared.
Did the reporters who covered WWII have to have a fake war drill? Did the reporters have to have a fake Vietnam drill??? This sounds like media management to me, this started IMO when reporters were imbedded During the Iraq war. Someone figured out that managing the media was a way to ensure more favorable coverage. After the Katrina mess seems like TBTB are going try and spin a pandemic. I dont think the founding fathers had this kind of thing in mind when they envisioned a free press. I want my news unpracticed. This smells worse than a three day old fish. It doesnt make a hill of beans worth of difference if Fake or simulated was used. Its still spin, and media management.
The part about the “fake” announcements is so bizarre, I thought the same thing …. maybe they were hacked. And the “for real” part doesn’t sound right either.
I think Pixie is right. Maybe we should back this up.
They didn’t even run this thru spellcheck. Developmemt ?? Too big of a hurry for that? What are they going to announce in Asia? I think we should be watching “official” families - Bush and kids, Blair and kids, etc. where are they and if they drop out of sight will we notice? Normal behavior for hoidays is either Maine or Texas for GW. Which is the better bug out location? Gotta go get my tin hat and tums.
janetn – at 21:51 “After the Katrina mess seems like TBTB are going try and spin a pandemic.”
I totally agree. I would not have any problem if all they were trying to do was to educate the media regarding medical/epidemiological terminology and what to expect if a pandemic would occur. I am not sure this is the case.
Would the information during Katrina have been seen by TPTB as potentially able to cause a panic and therefore should not be reported? (lack of supplies at the convention center, looting, no cooperation/coordination with levels of government, NO police dept. doing illegal things) Would we have ever known these things had happened if they had been deemed something that would be too sensitive to tell us?
I have no problems with the media being educated about a pandemic and what to expect. I do have a problem with telling them “what” to report. I hope that is not their objective with this exercise.
Since sooo many regular folk read the panflu.gov website regularly (NOT), perhaps they are using us to gauge the general public response to a variety of announcements such as the HK release and then retraction and now this “fake” announcement… how would they do that anyway?
Here is a link to HHS — Pre-Event Pandemic Influenza Message Maps.
http://adminservices.clayton.edu/avian/pre_event_maps.pdf
Argyll.
We are all looking for the panflu “trigger” announcement. A clue, a Freudian slip of the tongue, a signal, in every single newsbit. I for one, have finally, (thank God), realized that dissecting every sentence that is uttered is insane. We will KNOW when it starts. There won’t be any debating about it for 7 hours. There is no way it will be kept under wraps for days for the ‘elite’. It will be like 9/11. Whack! You will know it when ‘it’ happens.
By the way, I’m only posting this for my own selfish reasons. Things posted in that ugly orangee brown and black fluwike just seem to make more sense to me. So, move along folks, nothing to see here.
this is a popular thread today… if posters post at exactly the same time, sometimes posts disappear.
Thanks Dem, apparently I was erased. I’ll try to be as eloquent this time through. I do not believe this is genuine, or if it is, it was not the finished product or the intended product. It is not concise, has spelling errors, grammer errors, etc. I do not believe it was written by a Public Affairs Officer, and if it was there was certainly no editorial process. Somebody will get spanked tomorrow.
The government has plenty of practice releasing information both officially and unofficially. They know how to hold a news conference pre-emptively and reactively. The news media are equally as adequate at faking knowledge until they can get their experts in the chair and mic’d. They don’t need practice. They also have health reporters that can certainly report things like “There are 5,000 dead in one town in Indonesia and their airport has had twenty departures in the last three hours. Pilots are refusing to turn around. Back to you Bob”. Bob will then proceed to tell us to stock up on a weeks worth of poptarts and Orange Crush.
I’m not going to worry about this nuance. It is unimportant, and will most likely disappear or be radically modified by the end of the week.
Im not worried Im mad
Of the entire #3 report this is what puzzles me the most (even more than the words ‘fake and ‘for real’): I cannot seem to find these stats anywhere else.
“As this report is being written, 256 people in ten nations have been infected and 159— 59 percent—have died. The number will likely have increased by the time you read these words.”
One more thing, didn’t it say yesterday that every four days someone dies from H5N1?
There’s something about this dissection and subdissection of words and meanings and innuendos that reminds me of two high-school freshmen dissecting whether the cute sophomore who said, “do you want fries with that” at the McDonalds was or was not flirting with them.
The unpolished prose suggests that this isn’t a genuine document.
will we be seeing the old tv “snow” with the announcer stating “this is just a test in the event of …..” as in the olden days?
Lisa the GP – at 23:10
I agree. This is crap. Everybody better get use to it. We will soon be dealing with ‘news’ that can be so distracting, that we forget what we really should be focused on.
So they have six weeks. Six weeks until January or so to get the media prepared for this “exercise”. In the meantime, any peculiar activity can be accounted for and explained away. All the press education, all the coaching about what to say during the exercise - n’import, it’s just an exercise.
I wonder whether the media will be pliable? They will want to think it is all an exercise too.
Have you all been caught in the ‘test’ itself - has this document been loaded to test the reactions of forums/sites like this one? Particularly since the document hasn’t been well proof-read - not a common event is it?
Either this is a genuine document or someone at the website that generated it is having a jolly good laugh at all this discussion.
Pixie – at 20:48
The tone of the document is definitely off-balance. One clear intent is to deflect responsibility from the federal level to the state level; hence, the clever listing of Tamiflu orders (and absence of particular states).
Recall the notice yesterday from the FDA, also appropriately timed, relabeling the Tamiflu warnings.
Now, we’ve been told that it’s not available, nor is it safe. Does this look like its going somewhere?
Kind of like, “We told you so” . . . “Wish we could make you listen?” . . . and all that sort of malingering.
I’ve written / editted hundreds of documents like this one, most of which had far less public impact than this one should have.
Never have I released a single one of those documents with the poor word choice, grammar errors or outright spelling faults. Each document received a round-robin scrutiny of content advisors and wordsmiths. 25–50 reviewers is the norm with a dozen signatories prior to release.
I’m tracking items that may explain the event to which they are responding. Others more public than I will be informing you soon of this event and its potential aftermath. I will make no further comment on the document or the event due to respect and trust that the matter will become open very soon.
Please, Prepare Now.
Gather and Solve.
Thanks NS1. Well said. Thanks for your careful advice.
I want to add one more point for those who think we are in the midst of a test ourselves.
The Keystone conferences held recently were for the purpose of testing the public’s responses to news of a pandemic, and the means that might be selected to contain it. The public was asked to respond to “fake” news. Their input will be used to make policy decisions on critical issues.
The public at the Keystone conferences was not, however, asked to respond to “news” of upcoming and staged “fake news.” (Nobody would have attended that conference). The explanation that anyone would test for that would require too much in the way of circular reasoning.
Yes, well, we almost got our own keystone conference online.
Thanks to folk who will oppose anything I’m involved in simply because I’m involved in it, I doubt they’ll look online for input again.
I thought your effort to give that input to Keystone was a good one, LisaGP. I think most people did.
It doesn’t actually say that anything will be broadcasted.
It sounds like the EMS drills that are run to test responses from time to time. Our last one was a fuel truck into a school, and it wasn’t pretty.
just needed to post this… (12 weeks)
http://tunis.usembassy.gov/avian_influenza.html
Avian Influenza Preparedness
As of October 26, 2006, there are NO reported cases of Avian Influenza in Tunisia. We encourage all Americans to learn more about Avian Influenza. The U.S. Department of State’s latest guidance on Avian Flu can be found in our Avian Influenza Fact Sheet. Current information about avian influenza A (H5N1) and pandemic influenza can be found at: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/qa.htm http://www.cdc.gov/travel http://www.who.int http://www.pandemicflu.gov http://www.travel.state.gov Several simple measures can be taken now that will put you and your family in a better state of readiness should such a pandemic occur. These measures are outlined at http://www.pandemicflu.gov/planguide/. The U.S. Department of State is recommending that its overseas employees and their families prepare for the possibility of “sheltering in place” for an extended period of time – up to twelve weeks. To prepare for this possibility, the Department advises that persons store appropriate supplies of non-perishable food and fresh water for emergencies. Individuals should also ensure that they have sufficient supplies of needed medicines, such as prescription medications. Formula for infants and any child’s or older person’s special nutritional needs should be a part of your personal planning. These steps can be helpful in preparing for many eventualities, from the possibility of a pandemic, to natural disasters, to simple disruptions in utility services. Concerned about what to do if you come across a sick or dead bird? Click here for Tunisia-specific guidance.
Thank you Pixie.
On re-reading this document from HHS today, I do think that the ‘fake’ incident they describe sounds like a tabletop exercise. And I think we’re getting our knickers in a knot about nothing—most of the document seems to be self-congratulatory political mumbo-jumbo, and the release date seems to be set by the anniversary of some project initiated last year.
Who was it who said in a recent thread here that when It comes, It will be obvious? JWT? anon_22? Well, whoever it was, I agree with you.
In 1918 Liberty Bond parades were allowed to continue, even encouraged, while information was being managed and misreported about the start of the pandemic weeks earlier.
Information management will most certainly continue during the pandemic.
I concur with NS1.
Think about it. If TPTB beleive that a pandemic is a serious, or even probable risk THIS winter season, they have to start addressing the issues that the public at large still beleive that there will be (or is a good chance of) tamiflu prescriptions for them and thier families and that a vaccine will be just around the corner after an outbreak.
These expectations have to be managed if they are to avoid what TPTB fear most - civil unrest and societal breakdown, along with economic collapse. So how could this be done?
1. start to denigrate the potential value of tamiflu, and elevate its risks of usage, thus reducing demand for the drug. Note that the present line (under new FDA label) is that in view of the risks Tamiflu can only be used under medical supervision. What proportion of patients will be hospitalised? Very few. Add to this a probable increase in reports over timeframe of usage, and we have a situation where the conditions of Tamiflu usage are a) only if hopsitalised b)only if detected in the first 24 hours of symptoms and c)not for prophylactic use (some reason will be found). I would not be surprised to hear reports that viral resistance has emerged = no point giving you the tamiflu (we have not got) as the virus has become resistant to it, whilst maintaining usage for key workers etc for prophylaxis for as long as possible until a vaccine arrives for them. I may be unduly cynical here.
2. Manage the press to mask the real severity of how bad an outbreak might be. That way each locality may just feel it was being unusually hard hit by the outbreak. If this, then expect much more coverage of the massive variance in mortality in 1918 by geographical area. Anyone who thinks that reporting will be free and not subject to strict censorship on a global basis, IMO, is being naive.
For these reasons I watch the press on Tamiflu availability, effectiveness, adverse events and media events such as the one outlined above with very great interest. I beleive that the measure of the risk of an outbreak can be monitored from looking here. If the threat is not perceived as imminent, the tamiflu and vacine story will continue to be played up to offer comfort. As soon as the threat appears imminent, it will be taken to pieces.
Flumonitor-
Thank you for hanging some words on these ideas. Well said.
All major national events in modern history have been subject to information management. Leaders are trained that they cannot control the public without controlling the information content and flow.
Lisa the GP – at 00:48 Who was it who said in a recent thread here that when It comes, It will be obvious? JWT? anon_22? Well, whoever it was, I agree with you.
Not me. :-)
FWIW I think it will be obvious to us who watch this closely long before TPTB has time to organize some elaborate information management.
A22-
Obvious to us who will be shouting to the oblivious masses.
I’m sorry. At the risk of nitpicking, this document drives me up the wall.
The map on page 5 is not indexed properly.
And the first chart? It’s completely misleading. Whoever puts no of countries and no of human deaths on the same scale? I know technically they are both numbers, but still, correct me if I’m wrong, those of you who are statisticians, is it good practice to put oranges and chairs on the same axis?
But the document looks genuine, and it’s linked right from the www.pandemicflu.gov main page.
ARGH…!
Don’t have now time to read all the messages, but could the NC school closure news be the misinformation thing? Have they got any definitive virus tests yet? I mean that kind of virus tests that we can say fo sure: “this is NOT H5N1”?
Pixie
I believe the word you and the others are looking for is, “mock”. Here where I live, “mock drills” are held at the mall for terrorism, twice a year. You never know when that will happen. Thank goodness I’ve never been caught in one. When the soldiers are training here at Drum for something, it’s called a mock drill. No offical, i.e. speech writer, ect. would use the word “fake”. I might stand corrected, but I believe it is the offical word used. It does sound better than fake, one must admit.
All they had to do was treat the public like adults; they’ve had over a year to tell them what the WHO, the US feds, and Leavitt said, (let alone Dr. Webster, Dr. Osterholm, Dr. Nabarro…) we are in a pandemic alert period.
If they hadn’t panicked and said, they can’t tell the public to prepare for a pandemic, they wouldn’t need this stupid make-sure-the-media-spins-it-to-clamp-down-on-panic - and, why do they keep thinking Nature cares about the slow pace of bureaucracy and stupid monthly, quarterly meeting, normal channels by-the-book, ect? Pandemic could start at any time. (Not affected by whether or not individuals “believe” in it.)
Unethical not to tell; it is not true there is “nothing” people can do so, better not to tell, and, foolish of the media to have not done their homework - I did mine for free; because it is life or death when you hear a valid scientist giving a valid head’s-up and you watch everything fall into place for two or three years; we are still all speeding down the highway and the bridge is still out. Why do they want to wait until everyone has driven off the edge to tell the public? I see no reason to hope pandemic won’t be much of a problem, and plenty of reasons to see pro-active thought and action would save lives (and, the trust and consent of the surviving governed) better than the official “plan” on the ground around me.
Thinlina, I believe it is easier to tell if something is influenza A or B (harder to just test for H5N1 since it probably mutates and doesn’t match the tests). Not sure they are in the habit of testing each suspected flu case; sure would need a lot of tests and staff time.
Read, somewhere, that no matter what the US has ordered, at least some of those were not made in a timely fashion; other countries knew enough science to get in line first for antivirals, whatever, (I’m pre-coffee, sorry) and they have two years worth of other places’ orders ahead of the US to fill first.
Whatever happened to telling the public it was patriotic to take care of themselves, and be frugal, and pull together to get the country through an unaviodable crisis? “Build character”…plant victory gardens, (stop living in debt, stop relying on oil…mutter, mutter)
anon_22 or others looking at the doc.:
Is the map on page 5 labeled properly? Do you see little color bars that are supposed to be there as a key to the spread map? I do not see these.
perhaps the announcements are “fake” in that the reporters are fed information that they believe to be true (they are sent into the field, and are submitting reports based on interviews, and they believe the information is true - they don’t know it’s a drill) - but the reports never get broadcast to the public, and are instead fed into the sim to eval how the reporters report what they were told, and how it changes. you’re only going to get a true measure if the reporters think it’s real - otherwise, they’re not going to engage in the “what might really be happening” comments that occur in MSM during a live event - if they think it’s a drill, they’ll stick to the script.
i agree that the document appears to have not gone through the normal review processes - perhaps it was planned for later release, and someone just grabbed the current document at its current stage of review. hmm.
Pixie,
Very good observation. In comparing Planning Planning II and III, on page 4 of PPII there is a map key. It is not present on Pandemic Planning Update III — it is absent on page 5. Is this an oversight?
Argyll.
Oops, forgot to add my author to above post. It should read, author Argyll.
my vote is that it’s damage control…. for the slip of State’s HK site posting, and the change/removal of that document. the public hasn’t followed the publications to the degree we have, so they’re not going to notice the details we do - a diversion doesn’t have to be perfect, it just has to divert attention. the public has a short attention span, anyway - so if they bring out the Harvard study, a table-top that was recently run, and some form of situation report on where the govt is, the people will likely forget all about the State memo that went away.
Pixie – at 07:24
The map you refer is a map made using a GIS platform such as ArcView. I’m just guessing here, but in my opinion the person making the map imported the data, then joined it with the geographical (map) data. The joined layer had the same name as the data set imported. When he/she got ready to put the legend on the map they deselected the joined layer on accident (they should have deselected the data layer) and the result is the legend contains the imported data name. Simple mistake, easy to overlook. But in a governmental document of this caliber someone should have caught it. Part and parcel with the lack of spellcheck, poor word choice..etc.
and i don’t think the people were all that concerned about the State memo anyway - i think someone was, tho. i’d like for the govt to press forward with a message to the people to start preparing - but they’re still using the 2.5 CFR numbers in the document, and the overall feel of the document seemed to be that the govt is on top of the situation, and state/local govt is fully engaged. a reassuring message that someone felt needed to be released now, rather than some point later.
Well, perhaps the HHS could go back and correct the map for the internet site? This would be more accurate. Of course, we would still have our printed copies, but those visiting the net would have a correct version.
As to the use of the word, “Fake.” Perhaps, ‘SIMULATION” would have been better? Still time to change the internet version — they did it with HK, why not here? The word “fake” for me translates into, “con.”
Just my two cents …
Argyll.
c3jmp 8:10..The thing is, very few people know about the HK document. We have to remember that very few people in the U.S. follow these stories and updates like we do. I would have to say that no one I know has any idea about this, except my husband because I told him. I did send him the pandemic flu document at work, I wonder if he will circulate it.
Ruth – at 09:02 i couldn’t agree more..
LOL clearly with all the typos and weird word choices it comes straight from the oval office. Someone said it above and I agree with the idea that they are putting this idea out there in peoples minds so when the real thing happens around the same time period it will gain tptb just a little more time of relative calm. Think about it, if your in charge and have to get things accomplished quickly every min of normality you have will be a gift. The cost of this delay…well the general public is screwed anyway so no big loss. Maybe it gains them time to arm the troops?
crfullmoon – at 07:14 “Thinlina, I believe it is easier to tell if something is influenza A or B (harder to just test for H5N1 since it probably mutates and doesn’t match the tests). Not sure they are in the habit of testing each suspected flu case; sure would need a lot of tests and staff time. “
Yes, that’s what I believe, too. So it COULD be the first outbreak down in NC. And if so, how would the world have reacted…
Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 09:22 Or maybe just enough time to move enough money from one account to another…
Did anyone notice the sidebar quote from the last page of the document?
“You have to alarm people because until people are sufficiently alarmed they’re not going to listen to what has to happen.” –Ted Koppel Meet the Press December 25, 2005
Interesting to use the phrase “You have to alarm people” but to take it from a statement by Ted Koppel. We can read this a million different ways (and I am sure we will here ; -)), but I see this as the govt wanting to get people’s attention in a pretty significant way. This is a very serious quote.
It looks like HHS is saying you should be alarmed, but they are using Koppel as a proxy.
Thoughts?
whoops that reminds me- all the things I should be doing instead on being online…
Any knowledge what actually was wrong with these dead North Carolinian ducks?: http://tinyurl.com/y2rvhq
Pixie – at 07:24
Exactly!
Are we there yet. Did not notice this until you pointed it out. My clip made it difficult to read. Wow — that is huge.
All I can say to TPTB is — get those PSA’s out NOW! Citizens need time to prepare. And, please, please print prepping stories on the front page of our hometown newspapers. You will sound the alarm once and for all when you do this. Once citizens “routines” are interrupted, you will gain their attention. You can also gain their trust by helping them to prepare — a shortcut to empowerment. A commerical — showing us what to stock could help citzens prepare …
Argyll.
lisa the former, self described, doctor at 00:21
Thanks to folk who will oppose anything I’m involved in simply because I’m involved in it, I doubt they’ll look online for input again.
Sounds like someone needs to put on some more tin foil.
Argyll – at 09:57 All I can say to TPTB is — get those PSA’s out NOW!
Dont’ think they will do tha - 3 words: Holiday Shopping Season.
You know Pixie, I was thinking the exact same thing myself. Alas, 2007 …
I will put it on my holiday list and send it off to TPTB along with some fresh holiday cheer ;)
Argyll.
Pixie: “Dont’ think they will do that - 3 words: Holiday Shopping Season.”
TP, the universal gift!
Pixie - “One thing I think we can all agree on is that the international media is very, very, good at doing its job. They don’t really need hellp. And the media is highly competitive. They’ll cover this event with everything they have. Each media outlet will compete to have the best reporters, and the best experts, on the story. “
I started laughing at the hilarity of this statement before I reread it and realized you said “international” media and weren’t referring to the awful American news orgs ;)
Since Niman doesn’t post on fluwiki anymore I would like to entertain a puzzle he put forward on CE about this thread story.
Here’s the clues, collected together.
“I expect new info soon that will explain the Memorex test.
The information will be out in a few days. It will impact the discussion on some of teh more popular threads.
The key line in the Memoprex commeriacial was “Is it real, or is it Memorex?” as in, are you listening to a tape, or a live broadcast.
The event in question has already happened. It is a matter of releasing the info.
The news is based on analysis and possibilities, but will turn some lightbulbs on and will generate a fair amount of discussion.
Some will view this as serious, while others will talk about “computer games”.
I expect some to find this light to be blinding. “
Any guesses what the mad scientist is trying to tell us?
It almost seems like he’s saying the “fake” announcements will generate a taped broadcast, which will later be used as the “for real” announcement …. hmmm
Oh, like, tell the media things that can’t be hidden, like moonsuit operations, ect, are only drills? Make some “fake” news broadcasts, to have in the can for later release, that say, it’s a bit tough over there but you here are ok to go to work and shop and school?
For all the plans that mentioned Managing the Media, (often on page one) and left out really telling the public to prepare before pandemic, and to make decent preparations for timely and sensitive body disposal,
the heck with tptb and the heck with the “reporters”; I’m sick of all of them. (So what?)
Perhaps when TSHTF the broadcasters will go SIP at the first sign, so they will have a pre-compiled tape to stick into the machine and then run.
I remember as a child, around the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis, at school studying Russia and about their propaganda … I swear, I never thought it would happen in this country, but I really do wonder. And I am not one of those “conspiracy nuts.”
JWB – at 13:30
Very intriguing to see it all collected there like that. My question is why does Dr. Niman have to be so cryptic? I just don’t understand what purpose it serves.
I’m very worried about the lack of information given to the UK public. We get absolutely zilch advice about personal preps. I think there has been a policy decision NOT to advise us on stocking up on supplies and due to the lack of any coverage on the situation by our media I also think there is a news ‘embargo’ on H5N1.
Back in May this year I posted the following on CE…….
‘I honestly think that the MSM has been asked to keep the avian flu low profile by the UK government. Their reasons for this could range from not wanting to panic the natives or to stop awkward questions being asked, particularly about things like the fragility of the supply lines. I think on the UK Resilience website they talk about having a few days worth of supplies ‘just in case’ which is completely laughable. They do not want people stocking up. If you look at the following government document under ‘Minutes of Evidence’ 3rd November 2004 (should be 2005)
Q357 Baroness Sharp of Guildford: On the same theme, while you move just in time and therefore your supply lines are tighter than they used to be, most homes have invested in freezers and refrigerators and there is actually more space for keeping food at home than there used to be. Would it lead to panic if the Government were to suggest that it might be useful if people, for example, stocked up a bit on pasta or put food into their freezers? Last time when you had the petrol crisis people were totally irrational in what they were buying.
Mr Hawkins: I would like to think you are right but I think the very first announcement from government which encouraged people to stock up on anything would open the flood gates. In a way I rather hope that is the last thing government does.
http://www.publications.parliament….ech/88/8802.htm
I distinctly remember a few weeks ago on Channel 5′s Mathew Wright programme they were talking about bird flu. Mathew said something about human bird flu and quickly said something like ‘forget that I’m not allowed to talk about it’ I don’t know in what context he meant it but it’s quite an open programme and they talk openly about all sorts of things. It seemed a strange thing for him to say.’
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=49080&highlight=channel
God help us over here in the UK if H5N1 goes pandemic. God help us all.
Wow Solitaire, that is interesting. I wonder what exactly tptb used to get the media to follow meekly along with their “don’t talk about it” plan. The media isn’t exactly known for just shutting up and walking away. Usually, it is the exact opposite; tell then to leave something alone, and they go after it like pitbulls.
Are we there yet – at 13:48 JWB – at 13:30
Very intriguing to see it all collected there like that. My question is why does Dr. Niman have to be so cryptic? I just don’t understand what purpose it serves.
Maybe he does that so we come up with a solution that close to his answer, but more right.
JWB – at 14:01
“Are we there yet – at 13:48 JWB – at 13:30
Very intriguing to see it all collected there like that. My question is why does Dr. Niman have to be so cryptic? I just don’t understand what purpose it serves.
Maybe he does that so we come up with a solution that close to his answer, but more right.”
Who knows? I probably give him more leeway than I should just because he’s a fellow Trojan.
Ah the cosa nostra… Whoops! I mean the “fraternity” of USC graduates. ; - )
YetAnotherAnon – at 13:42 Perhaps when TSHTF the broadcasters will go SIP at the first sign, so they will have a pre-compiled tape to stick into the machine and then run.
Ladies and Gentelmen, we (insert media outlet) are not here right now, but if you’d like to leave your name and number we’ll get back to you when the pandemic’s over. We hope you will resume watching our channel in this life, or the next. May your god go with you. Beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep. Sounds of national anthems swell…..
All, I’m pretty sure the news people have been promised Tamiflu, I mean what station will want to miss this event? And vaccines as soon as available. That’s why the debates about the ethics of who gets vaccs is a farce—there won’t be enough at least this year for them to filter down to the common joe. Hey! bright side-maybe one will get delusional during boradcast.
As for Niman-he does seem to have someone with inside knowledge, and he protects that person knowing if he gives info too quickly it could identify him/her. He’s cryptic for a lot of reasons but mainly because he thinks the majority of people are to stupid to follow his analysis. Even now on FT someone who interrupts and asks for laymans terms—and Niman responds with half answers(classic remarks by someone who wants you to find your own answers). Anyway, Niman stuck to past threads that dealt primarily with sequences and what they show. He’s been most strident about the lack of sequences in 2005–06. He did almost come unglued when Monotreme first noticed the sequences were yanked from NEJM. Read that thread to see Nieman revealed.
I think Niman is referring to the tamaflu blanket in Indonesia, where there were articles about hospitals expanding during that period I think in Thailand, but the news blackout appeared and the info slowed. The other threads he participated in— were potential vaccines for virus. He stated numerous times if the same old obsolete science (not recombination) was followed the vaccines would cause worse problems. Anyway, he may have been right—the poulty vaccines may have enhanced the virus’s abilities.
To me it’s a puzzle trying to decipher him.
runinonmpt @ 13.58 I really don’t understand why H5N1 is so low profile here. As you rightly say the media usually jumps all over this sort of thing. They were reporting on it last winter, maybe it’s just not newsworthy enough right now. The problem being of course, when it becomes newsworthy (i.e the pandemic is upon us) it’ll be too late for Joe Public to do anything about it.
Along with the remark made by Mathew Wright it’s a feeling I have that they’ve been asked to keep it low key though I guess they could have a ‘D’ notice on it.
There was an article recently about our government possibly ordering 3M extra body bags and several noteworthy quotes from a senior minister, but as far as I’m aware even that didn’t make the TV news.
I just wish the government would make people aware of the preparations that are going on at national and local level and advise them to take some personal responsibility as well. Maybe then Joe Public would wake up to the fact that we may have a potentially devastatingly serious problem closing in on us.
GRRRRR! I still can’t get this document to open, and I’ve been trying for two days. Would it be too much to ask if someone could copy the document and paste it onto an e-mail for me? I’m jerebishopfranco at aol dot com.
History Lover - 14:58
It is a PDF file. You need Adobe Acrobat to read it. If you don’t have Acrobat, you can download it free at:
Tin Foil Hat On…
Ok, how about looking at this “fake” announcement, and Niman’s cryptic Memorex comments from the total opposite direction. What if the “fake simulation” is the real thing? For example, you announce a simulated test, but TPTB are mobilizing resources for real. Why do this? Because the “simulation” gives TPTB “cover” while making a very obvious mobilization of law enforcement, HCWs, etc.. etc.. It would really be quite clever. The “sheeple” would ignore it, because it’s a “test”, giving TPTB a “jump”, without causing a panic. Even better, how about two “fake simulations”, the second of which is actually for real. With the public’s short attention span, the second mobilization would be completely ignored. Once TPTB have completed the tasks they feel are required to maintain “control”, they would come out and say it’s for real…
Tin Foil Hat Off…
For those who haven’t seen it there’s also a copy of the previous document - Pandemic Planning Update II
anon_99 – at 15:30
I like that analysis, (and I don’t even have my tin foil hat on), it makes perfect sense. And using the ‘early 2007′ date allows them to slide it closer for when the SHTF.
If TPTB suddenly decided to ‘move up’ the date, then we know TSIATHTF. Bingo!
Are We There Yet - Believe it or not, we do have Adobe Acrobat, but we still have trouble downloading information that is in PDF (not just this document). It could be because our internet service is dial-up and not high speed. Thanks anyway.
Are We There Yet - Believe it or not, we do have Adobe Acrobat, but we still have trouble downloading information that is in PDF (not just this document). It could be because our internet service is dial-up and not high speed. Thanks anyway.
anon_99 – at 15:30:
I think that Niman’s comments about “real or Memorex” and the announcement of a “fake” exercise in early 2007 are important, and yes, that the appearance of pretend practicing will be used to mask activities in preparation for the real thing.
Any actvities that might look like they are “ramping up” pandemic activities during the next 6 weeks or so, particularly activities that involve media, will now be explained away by saying that they are part of an “exercise” planned for early 2007.
I guess you are right that they are betting that the average person will ignore all this, so in that respect it may be “clever.” However, it took us about 3 minutes to figure it out, so to me it also looks like a decision that was rushed, and a plan that was not entirely thought through.
But, the average person probably won’t stop to consider why, in early 2007, all the networks seem so well prepared, their anchors reporting from in front of elaborate pandemic maps, their experts already in their chairs, the impressive graphics on recombination vs. reassortment already loaded onto their hard drives and ready to explain fine points of science. We will know that all of this took time and organization, and quite a lot of it, but the average person will be more concentrated on the message being delivered than they will be on wondering how the media hatched this elaborate reporting fully formed like Venus rising from the sea. Some of the media may even buy in and believe their preparation is for a “fake” exercise. But there will be no “exercise” in early 2007. It won’t be Memorex.
Niman Says H5N1 & Influenza B polymorpisms recombined In Egypt, just posted to GenBank
This is your Memorex Memo…
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/1…H5N1_RBD_B.html Commentary
H5N1 Acquisition Matches Influenza B Receptor Binding Domain Recombinomics Commentary November 15, 2006
The H5N1 HA sequence of the recent fatal infection in Egypt was released within days after confirmation. The acquisition of the mammalian polymorphism, M230I, produced a match with the sequence adjacent to the human receptor binding domain of influenza A (H3N2 and H1N1) and influenza B. The change creates identity between positions 226–230 (QSGRI) in the receptor binding domain of influenza B.
Moreover, the change produces identity in positions 223–230 (VNGQSGRI) as well as 190(E) in H7N7. This receptor binding domain sequence was present in the only fatal avian influenza case in the 2003 H7N7 outbreak in the Netherlands. H7N7 antibodies were present in hundreds of contacts of cullers, indicating the H7N7 was readily transmitted from human-to-human. The same receptor binding domain was present a human isolate from the H7N3 outbreak in British Columbia, as well a 1980 H7N7 seal sequence. The sequence matches canine H3N8 at positions 225–230 GQSGRI. Canine H3N8 is also easily transmitted from dog to dog.
These matches raise questions about the WHO monitoring of positions 226 and 228, which are L and S in human H3N2 and H1N1. In 1957, pandemic H2N2 had Q and G at positions 226 and 228 providing additional evidence that such sequences allow for efficient influenza transmission in humans.
This potential is also support by recent data indicating the levels of H5N1 in the throat of patients in Vietnam were higher than seasonal flu. These data raise serious questions about the requirement for changes at positions 226 and 228 which are closely monitored by the WHO and consultant. The recent PNAS paper on the spread of the Fujian strain in China noted that “The receptor-binding pocket of HA1 retains amino acid residues Gln-222 and Gly-224(H5 numbering used throughout) that preferentially bind to 2,3-NeuAcGal linkages of avian cell-surface receptors (12, 13).” These two positions correspond to 226 and 228 in the H3 number system used above, and human H3 isolates have Leu and Ser at these positions. Thus, WHO and consultants are monitoring changes at these two positions, even though human influenza B as well as 1957 pandemic H2N2 have the “avian” Q and G at that position, as does H5N1 and mammalian serotypes H3N8 (in canine and equine) and H7N7 (in seal and equine),
Thus, the acquisition of mammalian M230I in the patient in Egypt creates a human Qinghai H5N1 with a poly-basic HA cleavage site, as well as a receptor binding domain with additional identity with human influenza, and a human PB2 E627K polymorphism, which increases polymerase activity at lower temperatures.
These data raise questions about the rationale for monitoring changes in positions 226 and 228 and raise concerns that additional acquisitions via recombination with an increasing diverse H5N1 genome in wild bird populations, will generate a pandemic H5N1 that is efficiently transmitted human to human that is coupled to an alarmingly high case fatality rate.
Media sources
Phylogenetic Trees
HOLY CaRp.
Somebody care to explain in layman’s terms ?
H5N1 has affinity for Flu type B receptors now ?
sigh.
I guess I’ll just have to wait for the layman translation.
Yikes!! It appears that tinfoil may no longer be required!
anon_99 – at 17:11 Yikes!! It appears that tinfoil may no longer be required!
If this is linked back to published sequences, I believe you are correct.
IF it goes pandemic, we have a “worse than worse case” scenerio on tap.
Concerning the “info” to be put out in a few days… President Bush is in Asia right now and I think he will be in Indonesia this week.. If a pandemic is starting, he wouldn’t be there. I wonder if the governments will start to become more pro active in concern to advising the prepping. PSA’s, mailings etc.
This information was posted by DennisC in the Nov 15 news thread:
DennisC – at 17:12 on the Nature article above:
“…..”The bottomline is that the changes (on the two spots) can be used as molecular markers to identify the potential of the viruses that may grow well in humans,” said Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the Institute of Medical Science at the University of Tokyo.
‘Using 21 samples of the H5N1 virus taken from human victims in Indonesia and Vietnam, the team of scientists found that three of them bound especially easily to human receptors.…. “
It seems that not only do we have to potentially deal with H5N1 having affinity for Flu type B receptors but some of the collected samples (1/7) already have the ability to easily attach.
Ruth – at 17:42 I agree with your assessment, I do not think they would put the President in a situation that would be deemed a hazard. I think they need to start the PSA’a very soon.
I guess I’m confused. In the Gov report NO. 2 they say they have already met with major broadcast and news media folks. And they say they are planning on a mock exercise to be held. So, isn’t report No. 3 just an update on when that fake (mock) exercise will be held? Granted it does look like it was rushed thru.
I just received the document from both Nimbus and Northstar. Thanks folks. Now I see what everyone is talking about. I agree that 2007 is too late for PSAs. Yesterday was probably too late.
My shot at “laymans terms” (even though this is a different area of science than I am familiar).
Per Niman’s commentary:
The acquisition of the mammalian polymorphism, M230I, produced a match with the sequence adjacent to the human receptor binding domain of influenza A (H3N2 and H1N1) and influenza B.
If I am reading this correctly, the recent fatality in Egypt was infected with a H5N1 which had the ability to utilize the same receptor sites as H3N2, H1N1 and Influenza B, all of which are what we call our regular “seasonal” flu. In otherwords, it is turning into a “human” flu virus versus an avian virus. I think the Nature article is pointing towards the same.
If I am reading this correctly, the recent fatality in Egypt was infected with a H5N1 which had the ability to utilize the same receptor sites as H3N2, H1N1 and Influenza B, all of which are what we call our regular “seasonal” flu. In otherwords, it is turning into a “human” flu virus versus an avian virus. I think the Nature article is pointing towards the same.
So in turning, the question is will it decrease in lethality.
So far, I believe that answer is NO.
What’s the CFR in Egypt to date ?
Bush probably doesn’t know much about bird flu, so if he’s in Indonesia and a pandemic *is* brewing, it could just mean that his Republican entourage is really really REALLY angry about the election results. :D
I won’t attempt to translate Niman. Since he hangs on the boards, it is his job to communicate to the level of the audience here, not our job to scry the bones he casts. Besides, he gets upset if you mistranslate, and as he can’t come here to correct you, I’m sure that would be very frustrating for him. I suggest if you’re to try a translation you do it at a board where he can respond, then come here with the result if you have a satsifactory translation worked out. It seems the courteous thing to do if you insist on rewording him.
This thread to me seems to by trying to shoehorn evidence into a box of ‘conspiracy coverup’ that I just don’t see. I find it easier to attribute inconsistencies to poor communication and incompetence.
You guys might want to go to the Checkmat thread.
Make that Checkmate !!
(Check mat. geez)
H5N1 goes deep in the lungs and is/was hard to pass HTH through coughing. The B flu goes to your upper lungs and this can be easily spread through coughing. If the two combine to the B receptors does this mean that it is easily passed now. Am I reading this right or did I miss something in the equation. Just putting my two cents worth in.
LisatheGP - at 19:52 This thread to me seems to by trying to shoehorn evidence into a box of ‘conspiracy coverup’ that I just don’t see. I find it easier to attribute inconsistencies to poor communication and incompetence.
You might be right, but I don’t think that we need to jump from incompetence to conspiracy coverup in one leap. There’s plenty of ground in between.
Earlier I made the comparison between the management of a new product announcement from a corporate entity like Intel, to TPTB managing the announcement of H5N1. In the case of a new microchip, we assume that Intel as a corporation would do everything possible to keep control of the new product announcement, and would brief important players behind the scenes and made sure that everyone was fully educated and on the same page (PR firm, sales people, Board of Directors). That is just doing business as usual in the the business world. I think that those “managing” the H5N1 communications have cast themselves in a similar role, and believe that they are just being professional (not engaging in anything nefarious).
Many of us here, however, disagree with this method of “management” specifically because it has led our friends and families to feel that there is really no reason to prepare, as we collectively hit our heads against the wall. I don’t know if I would call this kind of decision making by the PTB incompetence at this point (they certainly think there is logic in what they are doing), but I do agree that it will be later typified as a “really big mistake.”
They did start out with good intentions, at least, as the message delivered at the state pandemic conferences was a stark one, and pulled no punches. Why that message was not heeded is going to be something that is looked at by history, as are the decisions that were made after what had happened (or rather had not happened), was fully realized. I’d say that that falls squarely in the area of what you call “poor communication,” no question.
My bet is that they think they will be able to make up for lost time with a slew of PSA’s in January. But I’m not the kind of girl who goes to Vegas, so I’d prefer to have heard a steadier, more consistent message delivered instead of this last minute quarterback toss to the endzone.
I’ve read the first three paragraphs of the communications section over and over - as written they are almost uninterpretable, especially because of the way the information is organized. Organized another way, the same information might make a bit more sense.
My attempt at a more organized rewrite follows:
We have a challenge before us - our goal is to keep the public informed without generating undue alarm. (There may be times when the public is very concerned, for instance, but there is no new news to tell because we are waiting for test results.) To meet this challenge, we need to conduct exercises with the media. We need to know what their reaction will be when we release the news that a pandemic is underway, and we need to work out with them how to get accurate information reported in a timely manner.
To this end, we will conduct an exercise in early 2007, first in a single city and then in six others. We will work with national, regional, Hispanic and African-American media. Part of this exercise will be a simulation in which pandemic flu experts and communicators tell meetings of senior news executives that human-to-human transmission of H5N1 has been identified in a village overseas. Later in the day, they will be told the disease has spread across a region overseas. And finally, they will be told that human cases have been reported in the United States. After we assess how these news execs would handle each of these three “news stories,” the two sides will work together to develop guidelines for getting accurate, timely information to the public without generating a panic.
That, folks, is kinda, sorta what I think HHS was trying to say. I think we can foresee that communication is going to be a problem.
Inky — This is absolutely excellent. They should really focus on The STARCC Principle, and remember to take these “pre-event pandemic influenza message maps ( communications) and direct them to a 6th reading audience. If they accomplish this task at hand, they will win the game = gain the trust of the American and International public and mass media.
Then, once that is completed, they can maximize their preparedness efforts and get everyone ready and moving in the right direction.
Argyll.
Thanks again JWB for that 18 page report — absolutely excellent.
Argyll.
Ruth – at 17:42 “Concerning the “info” to be put out in a few days… President Bush is in Asia right now and I think he will be in Indonesia this week.. If a pandemic is starting, he wouldn’t be there. I wonder if the governments will start to become more pro active in concern to advising the prepping. PSA’s, mailings etc. “
Isn’t Vladimir Putin going to Indonesia this week, too?
Thilina - at 3:50:
Indonesia’s president is going to Moscow to meet Putin next month. “Talks are expected to include the purchase of military equipment.” Putin had been scheduled to visit Indonesia last June, but that trip was cancelled because of the earthquake in Java. http://tinyurl.com/yf9meb
Bush also stopped to have lunch with Putin for a brief hour on his way to Asia this week.
Ruth - at 17:42:
The new pandmemic 2 document says that PSA’s in the U.S. will begin in early 2007.
Argyll – at 23:12
Don’t thank me, I just passed it on.
Thank Dr. Dave. It’s his masterpiece.
I agree that Dr. Dave’s paper “How to Be Self-Sufficient for Six Months” is a masterpiece. It would be worth sending a copy, online or on paper, to anyone who still has questions about the implications of a pandemic. Dr. Dave has managed to convey a very serious subject in a most gentle tone.
It’s so effective, I’d love for DHHS to steal the whole thing, lock stock & barrel, for the next U.S. pandemic update release. I’m sure Dr. Dave would not mind at all if they did that, either.
Pixie – at 07:42
But what about this then?:
http://www.kremlin.ru/eng/sdocs/news.shtml :
announcement 18–20 November 2006 the President will take part in the APEC summit and also make an official visit to Vietnam
Sorry, it was Vietnam! ;D But anyways…
JWB
Will you please send me a copy of Dr. Dave’s report? isailaegean at fastmail dot fm
Thanks a bunch.
; )
can the mods post the 18 page report somewhere so it can be accessed?
Okiedokie, That would be a great idea. I’m sure that many others ,like myself have not seen it.
Are we there yet – at 09:11
Incoming….
Thank Dr. Dave
Okidokie – at 09:18 - believe they alreeady have - seems like Dem provided a link.. maybe on the mods thread.. i pulled it down last night. excellent paper, just wish it were sci fi - it’s not. our civilization is circling - “around the bowl, and down the hole”…
yes - it’s on Ask Questions Of The Moderators Here XXII…
The strangest thing just happened, I looked at JWB-at9:34 and read;are we there yet, at 911? Thank Dr. Dave! Them the screen went blank and it took several min. to gat back on FW, I had to go through 3 tries to get on, made me realize how improtant this site has become in my little world.
Sorry that anon at 9:56 was me