Governments aren’t failing to plan. But they are planning to fail. Is it me or do others see the inherent problems in some of the published influenza plans?
A plan is a roadmap towards a specific accomplishment. It is common, however, to lose sight of the goal during the planning and implementation process, especially when a logical disconnect occurs between the goal and the plan.
For example:
What is the goal of the vaccination production plan? Is it to produce the greatest possible amount of vaccine? Is it to produce the best possible(ie most effective) vaccine? Is it to produce vaccine fast enough to be of any practical use during first wave? Is it to reward the vaccine manufacturer with whom you plan on consulting for after you leave government office? Aren’t many of these goals mutually exclusive?
What is the goal of the governments pandemic flu communication plan? Is it to maximize awareness of a possible awareness? Is it maximize the number of people to purchase preps? Is it minimize misinformation? Is it to avoid causing unnecessary fear and alarm? Which of these goals is mutually exclusive?
What is the goal of the governments total worst case scenario pandemic plan? Is it to minimize deaths? Is it to minimize disruption to the current economy? Is it to minimize disruption to the post pandemic economy? Is it to ensure continuing operation of the government post pandemic? Which of these goals is mutually exclusive?
The difference between strategy and tactics is profound. Tell me what you want to achieve (your goal), and I’ll tell you how to accomplish it. Just be careful what you wish for. Your goal may be mutually exclusive to what you really want.
pablo escobar – at 09:01
In response, the head of the Medellín drug cartel, Pablo Escobar, unleashed a bombing campaign that killed hundreds of civilians in Colombia’s major cities. Drug money was also behind the assassinations of three presidential candidates in 1990. The Constitution of 1991 prohibited extradition, but the Colombian government reinstated it soon thereafter. Escobar was eventually apprehended and killed in 1993.
Source: http://tinyurl.com/y3odx7
Hi, Pablo, My curiosity is getting the better of me. Can you explain what led you to choose the handle you did? Even though your post is articulate, the handle is a smidge off-putting. Is there a backstory I’m missing? Just wondering.
Oh. That was so long ago. Can’t we let bygones be bygones? ;-)
from wikipidia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pablo_Escobar
At the height of his empire, Escobar was estimated by Forbes magazine to be the seventh-richest man in the world[1], with his company Medellín Cartel controlling 80 percent of the world’s cocaine market. His organization had fleets of planes, boats, and expensive vehicles. Vast properties and tracts of lands were also controlled by the cartel under Escobar due to the almost limitless influx of cash during this period. Estimates are that the Medellín cartel was taking in up to $30 billion annually at its zenith.
While seen as an enemy of the United States and Colombian governments, Escobar was a hero to many in Medellín; he was a natural at public relations and he worked to create goodwill among Colombia’s poor. A lifelong sports fan, he was credited with building soccer stadiums and sponsoring little league soccer teams in the city. He worked hard to cultivate his Robin Hood image and frequently distributed money to the poor. The population of Medellín often helped Escobar by serving as lookouts, hiding information from the authorities, or doing whatever else they could do to protect him.
What would have been George Washington’s wikipedia entry be if America had lost the war?
What would have become of Pablo if drugs were classified the same as alcohol and cigarettes? Would he had been an illegal immigrant manicuring your office complex’ facilities?
What is the goal of the war on drugs? Is it protect American society from debauchery? Is it to protect America’s youth from from self immolation? Is it to create a permanent underclass? Is it create private paramilitary international organizations? Is it to create the largest population as a % of its people criminals? Is it to make America “safer”? Which of these goals are mutually exclusive?
My admonition remains the same. Losing sight of the goal during the planning and implementation phase is a common human failing. The original goal of the war on drugs is disconnected from the plan due to mutual exclusive events.
I see the federal government passing laws to implement federal armed oversight in case of a natural emergency. This action plan is probably due to the gov’s undisclosed and not be discussed ultimate goal of their worst case pandemic scenario plan. Since we do not know the planned-for goal, I can guesstimate that their will be a mutually exclusive event between control of a panicked population and continuation of a popular democratic government.
good - ok - so, what’s OUR goal?
“OUR goal?” Getting the public to think about and understand that first post and start acting to take care of themselves and their communities!
at 09:01 Would probably read as a good PSA, “pablo escobar” (but I think the public deserves PSA’s like that, not “Wash your hands and don’t spread “flu! Have three days of food at home! Get your seasonal flu shot! -there- we got the public ready for pandemic…”).
pablo escobar – at 09:01 What is the goal of the vaccination production plan?
From the Global Vaccine Action Plan
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The first approach relies on countries establishing clear immunization policies to increase the use of seasonal influenza vaccine. This will provide the vaccine industry with a solid demand forecast and stimulate it to increase production capacity.
snip
The second approach concentrates on increasing production capacity for pandemic vaccines, without taking into account the expected demand for seasonal vaccine. Should there be a pandemic that appears to cause high mortality, there will probably be calls to vaccinate the global population – currently estimated to be 6.7 billion. A pragmatic approach in the short term will be to provide surge-capacity by using antigen-sparing methods; this could result in the availability of more doses.
snip
The third approach builds on research and development efforts being undertaken by the research community – including the vaccine industry – to design more potent and effective vaccines that are: a) capable of inducing protective responses after one dose, and/or b) induce broad spectrum and long-lasting immunity against both seasonal and pandemic influenza strains.
snip