The link is from CIDRAP News on a study by Harvard School of Public Health. I was just wondering if the good folks on FLUWIKIE agreed with the report findings and if not why? Also, I wonder just who they talked to? Has anyone here ever been interviewed for this type of research or study?
«Real Issues, how do we deal with them.» I think it should be announced that part of peoples preparations should include the saving of money, and not just a little, for the paying of bills and rent whilst not being able to work through a pandemic. This would immediately effect economies(probably quite drastically), which is obviously why the step has not been taken. There is something wrong if we as a people do not consider this aswell- like we are setting ourselves up for failure. The ‘ol “only 2–3% of the population’s gonna die” thing. I too am worried that I will run out of money for bills and rent…what about a mortgage? THIS PROBLEM IS A REAL STUMBLING BLOCK but solutions are going to have to be addressed. !!
strangely I just rec’d a copy of the reuters bite on the Harvard study from a female lawyer I have been trying to ‘educate’ abt bird flu - she wont listen to me it appears, but Harvard makes her pay attention - despite the fact that they have it a bit screwed up!!
Willing to stay home. That’s assuming you have a choice. What about school teachers? Mall employees? Movie Theaters? Tourism? these are industries that may not have a choice to stay home or not. Showing up to work and finding the doors locked is going to affect more than a few people.
I think if it gets as bad as we think it will then a lot of businesses will just close completely for the duration - they may relax vacation pay regulations or figure out some uniform method for employees to collect perhaps on any ‘long term disability’ insurance they may have as a group plan for the company - but other than that you are ‘on your own’! But on the other hand I doubt that many companies will be insisting on repayment of debt - they wont have the staff to follow through - but saving some cash in advance to take care of mortgage/car payments etc would be a prudent idea!!
Cash will give you options and without it you’ll let others decide your fate. Isn’t that in part what happened during Katrina. Those with money got out. Failure to plan for tomorrow could cost people their lives.
Blue - I agree – almost everything I read says ‘put away a little cash’, maybe a couple of hundred dollars just in case the ATM stops working. The paying of mortgage, electric, water, car payments, even federal, state and local tax’s (the gov’t will need the $$$$ to fight the flu) most likely will have to continue. People are also being told to prep, buy and store extra food, etc – all of which costs money and if a family is just making it from payday to payday where do the extra dollars come from to save for the unknown?
As for myself, after reading the article and in order to figure out what would happen if I were to stay home (SIP) I wrote a little ‘What If ‘spreadsheet and listed all my current incoming dollars and then took a hard look at what MUST continue to be paid, the out going dollars. I even added 20% increase to the cost of food, my preps won’t last all that long. I got rid of a lot of things like my two daily news papers, dry cleaning, lunches out, junk food, stopped extra deposits into savings, etc.
I then figured in my current balances in checking, savings, etc. and did a scenario on my losing my job and my DW continuing to work. (down to one income). Then I reversed that with me continuing to work and DW not working, again down to one income.
Lastly I took a look at both of us not working and the final outcome was that I can go for a minimum of 11 months with no new income but at least 30 months with just one income before I would start having to miss paying one or more of the necessary bills - IF I were to start to SIP today.
Looking at the results made me realize that I am a very lucky person. Bottom line is that I just may be able to weather the storm if TSHTF, that is DEPENDING on many other factors such as not getting sick, no real ‘out of control’ riots, no looting, basic services being maintained, etc.
A big concern is how many people can really put away ‘extra’ money to cover there normal, bare bones monthly expenses? I am afraid that it is just not in the realm of possibility to think that some (maybe a lot) of people can put away the money needed to pay their bills for an extra month let alone six months to a year.
Staying home will not be an option for a lot of people, the fear of losing ones home will force many to continue to go to work. Then again there will be a lot of people who will not have a choice but to stay home, the home construction industry for one – new home building will stop, what about mass transit employees – who will be riding busses, trains or planes?
I really do wonder where will they be able to turn to for help? Can or will they be able to find any relief from the banks (mortgage), will the electric company keep their electric turned on? Etc.
If TSHTF it looks like it is going to be a rough road for a lot of people – regardless if they stay home of not.
THOM: Concerning you having enough money in checking/savings for 11 months… What if the banks are closed and you can’t get to that money? ATMs will only last so long. They will be out of cash in 12 hours if a ‘rush’ occurs. Something to think about.
Money: If some of the stuff that is being bantered around on a few of these threads comes to pass, money won’t really be worth a lot. Perhaps stocking up on trade items would be a good idea.
One of the things I fear is going to happen is that people will not stay home because of the money situation. I really believe that if H5 goes pandemic we here on the Wiki and others who are well informed are going to be a tiny minority SIPing. Were going to feel real strange battening down the hatches when others around us are going about their lives. Of course this will change when the bodies start piling up. But by then how many of us will have given in to the herd mentality and ventured back out?
On the fence and leaning - 22:40
Money: If some of the stuff that is being bantered around on a few of these threads comes to pass, money won’t really be worth a lot. Perhaps stocking up on trade items would be a good idea.
My business partner and I are in the ‘recycling’ business. We have a thrift store filled with items to barter that we acquire at yard sales, estate sales, from Ebay and just helping people move out of their houses. A lot of our current business thrives on the barter system. I must admit that part of my prepping has been storing valuable pandemic equipment for the store at each of our houses. We both look at it as extra preps that we could barter for food. When $10 bucks in gas and a few hours of lifting boxes turns into a box van full of stuff, it gives a better return than stocking up on food. :)
On the fence - Banks closed! No internet for electronic transfer / bill paying! Cash being devalued! Wow… Maybe I am not in such a good position after all.
Barter is a great idea for local items like food water, meds, clothing, tools, etc. but how to pay a mortgage? A car payment? Your electric bill? That thought just opened a whole new can of worms.
In the dust lay the best laid plans………………
Thom – at 00:31
I’m thinking n95 masks that cost $.50 now will probably bring well over $100 apiece (easy) on ebay once level 6 hits (before the internet goes down). But dollars will be of little real value at that point. The masks would be good to barter with though.
Another thing is salt. When that gets scarce it will be worth more than gold. I think I paid 20 bucks for 100lbs.
Jack – Thanks for the suggestions, it appears that I need to reevaluating how and what else I need to acquire. I can and will do the N95s and salt. Damn… And I thought I was doing so good.
Thom - 01:14
You are doing good as you are finding the holes in your plan now rather than later. Sugar and cocoa would also be good items to barter with. Plus, you can get nicotinia tobaccum seeds and grow your own tobacco. If civilization is busted back to the last century, seems like cigarettes would be a good thing to barter for cash/gold/silver to help pay the car payment, mortgage, etc. People like their creature comforts.
This is what the participants were told about the flu….
“Imagine that there was a severe outbreak in the U.S. and possibly in your community and a lot of people were getting very sick from the flu and the flu was spreading rapidly from person to person.”
I wonder how many really understood how bad pandemic flu might be and whether their answers would have been different if they knew the whole story.
Well: the lesson from Katrina was that money would hold some advantage. Why is this lesson not promoted? -Because the economies will depress around the world. Surely it is better to let adjustments take place than to force everyone to either fall behind on mortgages or risk everything by going to work. -Let us encourage others to meditate upon this point.
I’m almost finished reading alas babylon and one of the first things in the book that freaks people out is when they realise that cash has turned back into just pieces of paper. If you really want to invest your money into something valuable buy gold and silver coins. Look it up on google, you can get gold coins for 50 bucks a pop or whole cases for I think 50K. If I had a huge nest egg I was sitting on thats what I would do. Although I am kinda hoping the banking system crashes. 5K worth of supplies on a credit card means Christmas shopping at the dollar store.
I think it’s tough to predict and generalize what people will do. More than likely it will fall into different camps: 1) those who have prepped and can afford to stay home for long stretches (likely not many) 2) families where 1 parent can stay home but not the other 3) others who have to go to work because either they can’t afford not, are mandated to (by employer or imposed law) 4) those dedicated enough to take risks to keep critical services,medical care operating.
So much will be driven by: what the CFR is - the higher it is, fewer people will go out no matter what (at least for a short while. After a few weeks, running out of food and going stir crazy, they’ll go back out again) 2) what the media coverage is. If CNN starts showing dead bodies piling up, even if CFR really isn’t that high, people will freak.
Thom, ask what your town/state plans to do (;-) about tax collection during a pandemic influenza year -would it help any to try and pay local taxes/fees ahead a year?
Check some of the financial threads around the Wiki.
I still haven’t done this gold stuff yet (but I wish I had -one of these days, now, hopefully) https://online.kitco.com/sellprice/Ordr_Faq.htm
The emergency local currency sounds like a good idea, but, most of my town either doesn’t know to ask about pandemic -not their dept. doesn’t affect them, right?, or, is determined only to tell the misleadingly-little the public “Needs to Know”. (Staying on message and status quo economy/government is so important, doncha know!)
aurora – at 02:41 Wish CNN or BBC would do an online survey, and add lots of boxes;
Are you prepared stay home/isolated for a month or two or more
if you were under a “boil water” order?
if your heat source ran out?,
if the electricity was out? ,
if no emergency police/fire/ambulance services were available?
if public funerals were banned ect
Bet the local pandemic influenza “forums” would get better turnout, and, more tough questions, if people had seen surveys like that being discussed, eh?
;-)
Then too, there is the whole contingent who will want to go out to get their cigarettes, drugs, alcohol, ect,
and right now, the people lucky enough to have health insurance can’t get 3months or more of essential Rx meds ahead at a time, so add in those factors, too.
Mothers who aren’t breastfeeding are not being told to stockpile and rotate formula, ect. New mothers aren’t being warned about being in a pre-pandemic alert period, and the advantages of breastfeeding, pregnant women aren’t being warned being prepped to isolate during an influenza pandemic may save their lives, ect. And as far as I can tell, the town is making no behind-the-scenes preparations to take care of them, either.
If the cities don’t “stay home”, the suburbs are going to have even more issues they can’t deal with.
Talking about it now is still preferrable to me (since I’m not a politician or bureaucrat) than “act normal until something happens that could last a year or more, and, we’ve had advance official notice of no outside help to be had”…
:-(
crfullmoon – at 07:30 - The emergency local currency sounds like a good idea, but, most of my town either doesn’t know to ask about pandemic
I don’t know how many people are needed to start an emergency local currency. Probably just a few. And maybe you can find allies in some more or less revolutionary world changers. Let them do it!
Attended a dinner the other night where the guest speaker spoke on how the Fortune 200 companies were preparing for the avian flu.
First off, I was delighted to hear that these companies are taking this threat very, very seriously.
The speaker described that most of these companies went through the grueling exercise of determine who their critical employees were in order to determine how much Tamiflu they would need to stockpile to make sure these employees, and their families, were covered. The speaker went on to say that, after this exercise, almost ALL of the companies realized that it was totally unrealistic to try and decide what employees were “important enough” to cover with Tamiflu and what employees were “dispensable”. The speaker stated that in almost all of the cases, the company decided to spend the extra money and stockpile enough Tamiflu to cover EVERYONE and their families. Interesting!!!
Now, of course, the major question is will the Tamiflu work? It seemed like these Fortune 200 companies were putting all of their money into the fact that Tamiflu will work. They were not taking any other precautions, though some were setting up “clean rooms” in which critical employees could be locked down.
Let’s hope and pray that Tamiflu does the trick in that those companies that are preparing are betting on it.
Thanks One and all for the reality check. Every time I think I’m really getting close to having a good handle on this thing I ask a question and ya’ll bring me back down to earth.
OK then, if somebody will please hand me my cigarettes, a big cup of black coffee and my Prozac I’ll be OK, I’ll be OK, I’ll be OK…
(pats Thom consolingly on the shoulder) Prozac don’t help much anyway; wish instead, I could give out a bunch of Cluepilzs (with an ethics chaser!) to a passle of local honchos.
I was actually surprised and a little heartened by this survey. It sounds like most people interviewed have a fairly realistic picture of how important it would be to stay at home, and how challenging this would be financially.
I’m very curious now to see the community recommendations that will come out in December. There are obviously a lot of serious needs to be addressed. That 24% have no one to care for them if they are ill is chilling. The challenge is using the findings to come up with solid recommendations that people can really use without succumbing to the temptation to water them down for the sake of preventing “panic.” I haven’t seen many of those type of recommendations coming from the CDC.
Option for those that own their home
Don’t count on not having tp pay mortgages- many people lost their homes and farms during the great depression.
Have already discussed a home equity line of credit with my bank. would take 3 days to process and I would have a new “checking” account with about $80,000 in it - from home equity. Interest would only accrue for the amount actally used / withdrawn.
Will set it up (by phone and mail) at 1st sign of full blown problems. After SHTF banks may pull up tight and stop giving them out.
Would be used only after all other resources exhausted- but could be used to cover initial mortgage (that still has 9 years to go) and basic utilities.
Yeah but during the depression the banks were open and there were people there to process the claims and money transactions. That might not be the case this go round.
Plus, if 30–40% of the workforce are out sick, who will come by to repossess your car or evict you from your house for nonpayment? Which will be deemed more important the looters or the debtors?
After the dust settles, it seems to me that a great percentage of people live paycheck to paycheck. There will be a lot of catching up to do for everyone. Will the lending institutions decide that it is in there best interests to work with the 100% of the population who has had problems? Would the economy survive making so many people homeless after the pandemic?
Let’s just suppose a CFR of 25%. How many of those people owed money to a lending institution? I think that the utility companies will be scrambling all over themselves if 25% of their customer base vanishes in a 6 month to 24 month period. Probably the same for the credit card companies. The car companies are already struggling. They will be scrambling for new customers to get them back on their feet.
Not everyone owns their own home, but 25% of the demand for housing would vanish. Some children will be left as orphans. I don’t know how many families will vanish this way, but this too will decrease the demand for housing.
Every industry will have lost 25% of its customer base. That is a lot of revenue loss. All in all, we would be looking at an economy that would be desparate to reboot itself. We would be looking at a population that would have seen enough death and despair to want happiness, Roaring 20s anyone? I think TPTB would want us to get back to being the same consuming based society that we are now as quickly as possible. We will be looking at a population that may have reached the end of its rope. That the prospect of having survived the panflu only to lose the last remnants of your former life would be too catastrohic to add what we would have already dealt with. I can see this as being a point when people rise up and say NO, revolt against the government and shatter any hope of returning to this our current normal way of existence. It seems to me that TPTB want to remain TPTB, and making it impossible for people to return quickly to work would only create more chaos. They want the population happy and consuming.
Of course, maybe I should check for being overly optimistic in thinking that TPTB are thinking this way. I think self preservation is very high on their list though.
Even if you lost your house, if you survive the pandemic there will be such a glut of empty houses the govt. (if it survives) will have them available for free to anyone willing to occupy.
Thom, I am in a position a lot like yours in that there is enough cash for me to shelter in place for well over a year. My current concern is this. When it is all over and I do go back to work it won’t be the same job….that is probably a certainty. Just how much will employers be paying? If it isn’t enough then keeping my house now and running through my savings sheltering in place will leave me alive but quite possibly homeless when it is all over just because the jobs may not be paying enough anymore to make the mortgage. I am seriously tossing around the idea of selling my last cabin (I sold two this summer.) and just remaining in my travel trailer which I have lived in for the last two years anyway. My cabins are rentals. I’d have enough cash to shelter in place for several years then. If flu didn’t get really bad and I sold my cabin anyway, I’d have a nice downpayment for a home I can build. Something more energy efficient. Maybe that is what I should do.
What no one really addressess is how will people who work get paid? My checks are direct deposit—if banks aren’t open how will I know it even gets there? During hurricanes we’re told they will be delayed, but we will get paid. There is always dsputes about the overtime actually paid. If I can’t access ATM how am I helped? Why continue to work and expose yourself and family if there is no money? The way around is to pay in cash, does anyone here see that happening? So here’s the question—who will go to work to get the Tamiflu or vaccine if there is one instead of pay? Cause that’s my conclusion. There is a rule that banks can’t remain closed more than three days (am I right?). The moment banks hit that wall, there will be no way for pay, paychecks, cash, etc for work to ocurr. I work to pay my bills, no pay, no work, unless I say so.
CabinLass – This is, I think, the last big hurdle for me. I just had a new home built to which I had hoped to retire. I had it constructed as the most energy efficient that I could. It is the place I plan to SIP to, it has a well, septic, propane generator w/ 500 gal buried tank, lake, in a secluded area, plenty of preps already stored, etc.
The home I am in now is paid for, nothing but yearly tax’s. The new home does indeed carry a mortgage and that is what I am most concerned about.
As I still must continue to work, I need another 5 – 6 years to retire, moving at this time is not in the cards. The new home is an additional 60 miles away and there is no way that is in commuting distance. If I some how knew for sure that this bug was going to hit soon it would make a difference, I would sell this place and move to the new place and not worry about continuing to work for the mortgage money, or even paying the mortgage.
I guess like everyone else this ‘not knowing’ is driving me nuts. How do you make the call – do you keep everything status quo? Or do I sell everything, quit work and move? Even in this down market I feel that I can unload this house with no problem.
But if this bug does not show up then what? The responsibility of the mortgage and all the other bills will not just go away and I’ll be out of a job.
On the other hand if I don’t sell and move now and it shows up next week or next month then what?
I do feel comfortable I and my family can make it through this, been a semi-prepper all my life, but what happens on the other side. I guess it is just my mind set that has to change. I understand that things will be different, if it gets as bad as some think then maybe there will not be anything such as retirement, what the heck, social security made up part of my retirement plan anyway and it is a safe bet that that will not be around after the bug does it handy work.
When all is said and done the answers I am looking for are just not there. It is, and will continue to be a ‘wait and see’ period for us all.
Thom - this is none of my business - but… it sounds like you have a perfect set-up to sip and could sell your house and move there - why so against commuting?
Could you reconsider? You probably don’t live in California where many people commute 60 or sometimes far more miles to work.
My husband leaves at 4:00 a.m everyday to do just that.
Just a thought - sorry if I am being a “but-in-ski!”
I know - sounds wacky
Just a thought.. but, wouldn’t it be nice if after the pandemic we never ever touched tobacco again? I think I’d recommend people strive to save three months of base income to cover applicable bills. If things turn to the worse, paying bills after three months will be a much lower priority.
Also I wouldn’t be surprised if we see different types of curfews with bans on any crowds over (three?) Confrontation with authorities will be on a shoot to kill basis. There simply won’t be up close arrests going on. I believe there will be a type of assistance with or replacing unemployment/disability insurance. Apply online of course. It could be you’ll receive a packet of necessities once a week or month. Distribution via Red Cross, Government personnel and various volunteer organizations.
Folks Alot has been said about access to “money” in order to survive, both during and after the pandemic. Some say cash on hand is the best approach (in the US, that’s the good ole dollar), some say gold and silver, others say barter items, and others say credit cards via ATM’s. I say - have all of them available. Diversify, just as you would in your investment portfolio.
Surfer,
You are right. Survival might be all about options.
I hesitate to think that NOT paying your mortgage is the way to go. It’s just possible that one of the best paying, post-pandemic jobs may be working as a repo-man for the banks. Getting ‘squatters’ off of the bank’s ‘legally’ owned property. People did lose their homes during the depression. Banks didn’t just say, “Don’t worry about it, we just want to help America get back on their feet.” It became a massive redistribution of wealth. Same thing could happen. After the bank repos tons of houses in an area, you go homeless for a few months/years, live with a bunch of relatives, and then maybe after you get yourself back on your feet you can try to get into a house. Probably a much smaller house than you had before. What do you think? Am I on the mark? Making any sense?
bump
wow, I must be “The Thread Killer”. Lately when I post, it just seems to stop there. Guess I don’t have anything good to say. Time for a new screen name….The Threadanator!
Here, let me help ;) I think people will be good for about a week, then they’ll have to come out for food (unless someone delivers). So no, I don’t think it will work at all. Sorry to be so pessimistic.
Plus, people will get itchy to go out. What’s America’s favorite pastime? Shopping! Even if they had the supplies to ride things out for a few weeks, many will be completely stir crazy and wanting some sense of normalcy. Even there is even a whiff in the air that “it’s over” people will flock out of their homes like ants to sugar. I remember reading one 1918 survior’s story that his grandmother made them stay in a few more weeks longer thane veryone else. He credits iher with saving his life because there was still illness around.
I agree that there are a lot of possible scenarios regarding money issues. The existance of Banking Regulation #1 means that in the event of an “emergency” [very broad term, btw] the President can close all banks. Should that occur, that raises several issues: being able to access money you may already have in your accounts, whether or not direct deposits, such as social security, pension and disability checks will be properly received, recorded AND the funds made available! Will checks written in payment to banks be received or even be honored? If not, then it only stands to reason that there will have to be a hold put on many transactions, such as mortgage or credit card payments to banks.
The following is my personal opinion and affects how my DH and I are preparing: I envision that credit card companies will stop allowing purchases as soon as they know the pandemic is underway, so am not counting on using them. I suspect that banks will be closed or have limited access, which means having some cash and neumistics in the house. I worry that my social security check and my DH’s disability check will be “out there in the ethers” for several months until things return to some form of “normal.”
On the other hand, if I am not mistaken — and if I am, someone will please correct me — there was a moratorium placed on many payments, such as mortgages, after Katrina. That creates a precedent which may be followed in this “emergency.” Should the banks be closed, should government payments be suspended, I am willing to bet that there will also be a payment holiday declared by law. I can only hope that would include a run up on interest for credit cards as well. An unknown. Of course the monies will still be owed; everyone would be in a sort of suspended animation.
Perhaps there is a major lesson in all of this — that humankind will come to a true understanding of how interdependant and connected we all truly are! No [hu]man is an island — at least when it comes to economics.
Will people stay home?
Given a choice between a *certain* death of hunger or thirst or a *possible* death of BF or violence while foraging for food and water, people will certainly elect the *possibile* rather than the *certain* outcome.
99.999% of the population is not prepared to SIP for more than a week. They will be forced out of their homes.
I hope we never have to find out the answers. I fear for the cities. It seems that in every diaster their are those that take advantage of the situation. Im not just talking about looters. im talking about those who will be looking to make a profit on others misfortune. ie banks. The fear of losing your house is going to propel many out into the workplace when they should stay home. My motto is dead people dont have paychecks, so stay alive ride it out and pick up the pieces later. My son has accapted the fact that he will probably lose his house. But he will be alive to raise his kids. He knows his family will always have a place to live, our home is paid for. We have saved enough money to keep the lights on for a year, have two years of wood, and plenty of food for a year, and pay the taxes for two years. So my sons family is going to be able to SIP till the cows come home at our place. We had to go without a lot of extras to do this since we dont make much money. But the piece of mind has been worth it. Fear and desparation will drive people to do dumb things. As JJF as said most who go out will feel forced to.
If more families could pool resources and live with several generations in one house more families could stay home safely. What cant be done with one household could be done with two or three. Maybe families will pull together, and get each other though this. A pandemic may bring out the best in some as well as the worst.
I’ve seriously considered selling my current “dream” home that has a mortgage because the equity is enough to buy a smaller home for cash. But my reasoning has led me to believe that I won’t get thrown out of my house during a pandemic and houses after the pandemic will be worth however many percent of the population survives. If 5% of population lives the house will be worth 5% of what is was worth pre pandemic (if it has any value at all). I sometimes wonder if anyone will “own” any real estate, or if it will revert back to squaters rights. Very difficult to envision how it might play out.
Jack All I can tell you is being debt free gives you a lot of peace of mind. My DH built our house ten years ago. We did it without a mortage, and we have never regretted it. I can lay my head down at night and not worry what will happen if….. no matter what I have a roof over my head. I dont have to worry if I lose a job get sick or if a pandemic is comes will i lose the house. We dont have a mansion by any means, but it all ours.
Sunny 18:04 – Sorry for the delay in answering. One way commute would be 96 miles, two plus hours each way and that is with no accidents, no bad weather, etc. I am in the office at 5:30 every morning now which is a 4 AM wakeup. If it were possible to telecommute I would be in heaven but that is not yet an option.
I have really thought about what you suggested, selling this place (paid for) and moving to the new house BUT, (there’s that damn BUT again), what if this bug doesn’t hit for another 3 or 5 years or even longer? If I did make the move I could not keep my current job which means that I would not have the funds to continue to make the remaining mortgage payments on the new house after the first year. My DW also works and although she would just love to pull the plug and retire today if it were possible, we depend on her income also to finish our nest egg. If we moved she also would have to leave her job.
I am not in any way looking to retire rich, or even ‘well off’, I just need to ensure that my family is taken care of. I don’t need (want) anything special like a new a new car, currently driving an 8 year old Chevy blazer with 165,000 miles on it. I’m very happy with purchasing ‘used’, I like to recycle / rebuild / repair, I always look to extend the working life of my current assets. I am lucky to have the tools, skill and ability to fix almost anything, even if I have to fabricate missing or broken pieces or parts. I guess that there is a part of me who is really looking forward to a more simple life but getting there with this bug hanging over our heads was not in my original plans.
I truly can say that this thing frustrates the hell out of me. I am not used to waiting, I need to process the facts, if something needs to be done I will evaluate the problem, adapt my mode of attack and engage. I am frustrated because there are too many unknowns, except for the fact that this bug is a killer. Timing – If we only knew when this thing is going to hit us it sure would make planning a whole lot easer.
The issue of staying home is something that may not have a simple answer, but I do know that if I could I would. It appears that over and above everything else that sipping is the primary way to keep your family safe. DW and I have worked for almost 40 years to build our retirement home, it will really piss me off if this bug stops us from achieving that dream. It may not be the right decision but as of now my plan, if this thing does go and develop into a full blown pandemic, is to move everyone and everything to the new house, which will add an additional 60 miles between us city and I hope a much better chance to make it through. WTH - we can always pick up the pieces on the otherside.
Thanks to all for the input / suggestions as all input is indeed welcome and valuable.
On the fence and leaning – at 18:49 “wow, I must be “The Thread Killer”. Lately when I post, it just seems to stop there. Guess I don’t have anything good to say. Time for a new screen name….The Threadanator!”
I feel that way sometimes too, but then I rationalize that I probably just said something that was the be all and end all of the idea and nobody could think of anything to say after that. :>)
I’m sorta of the mind that my husband and I will have to work provided it’s there to go to. We are older and not in the target age group. Our children will stay here with us, SIP’d and safe. None of them own a home yet. We will disinfect before we come in contact with them. That’s what I have in mind anyway, don’t know if it will work.
I’m just wondering where all the renters will go if they get evicted? Can you imagine 25% or more of the population out on the streets? I see tent cities where infestation runs rampant.
I have a friend who is into conspiracy theory. No, he doesn’t believe them but he loves to read them. I asked him to come up with a conspiracy theory about the pandemic (he says there are several already) but part of our conversation was that I asked him if we will be able to stay home when it starts. He said no, but not for the reasons here. First off, he said the government will never admit that the CFR is greater than 1 to 2%. Any attempt by any person or media to say otherwise will be dealt with by severe means and then suppressed. They will lead you to believe that masks and gloves will protect you, that only dirty habits will kill you (especially fat bodies, smoking and drugs), and they will remind you over and over that we have Tamiflu and vaccines coming to protect you. Therefore, they will advocate normalacy for all - school, banks, work, etc. We will have our pandemic and be perfectly okay at the same time. He said the government will bank on the first wave to be mild, but no matter how bad it is, the number of dead will be minimized - if you are in a town with 3000 dead, they will report 30, maybe 300 to the rest of the nation. If you cry foul, you will be labeled a heretic (as will the Flu Wiki). Anyway, this is how the conspiracy starts and he combines several other theories for the rest of the story.
Nah, ;-) he just read all the plans that start with “Manage the Media”
HHS “Summary of Public Health Roles and Responsibilities In Public Health Communications, Interpandemic and Pandemic Periods, State and local responsibilities: …”Address rumors and false reports regarding pandemic influenza threats”…”HHS responsibilities”…”Coordinate pandemic influenza media messages to ensure consistency” (See Sandman’s Speak with one Voice; why I disagree )
“Pandemic Period, State and local responsibilities” …”Contact key community partners and implement frequent update briefings. As appropriate, implement and maintain community resources, such as hotlines and websites to respond to local questions from the public and professional groups. Tailor communications services and key messages to specific local audiences. In coordination with epidemiologic and medical personnel, obtain and track information daily on the numbers and location of newly hospitalized cases, newly quarantined persons, and hospitals with pandemic influenza cases. Use these reports to determine priorities among community outreach and education efforts, and to prepare for updates to media organizations in coordination with federal partners.
HHS responsibilities: Coordinate pandemic influenza media messages to ensure consistency across Federal government, Coordinate communications activities with state and local communications staff, including regional or local communications centers as appropriate. Promptly respond to rumors and inaccurate information to minimize concern, social disruption, and stigmatization. Coordinate international information exchange and communication strategies “
“The goals of Supplement 10 are to: Describe the integral role of communications in preparing for, implementing, and evaluating public health actions to protect health and prevent pandemic influenza-associated morbidity and mortality. Provide local and state health officials, community healthcare professionals and communications specialistswith guidance to assist them in developing and implementing communication plans that support an effective public health response and help minimize anxiety, fear, and stigmatization. Provide the basis for a well-coordinated and consistent communications strategy across jurisdictions, based on a common adherence to established risk communication principles. This supplement emphasizes the following strategies to help state and local communications professionals collaborate with each other, CDC, and other organizations to accomplish these goals:
Provide timely, accurate, consistent, and appropriate information about pandemic influenza public health interventions. Emphasize the rationale and importance of adherence to public health measures that some people may consider intrusive (e.g., quarantine). Help set realistic expectations of public health and health care systems. Promptly address rumors, inaccuracies, and misperceptions. Minimize stigmatization that may occur during a pandemic. Adapt materials for others with special needs (e.g., non-English speaking populations, difficult-to-reach communities, and persons living in institutional settings) receive appropriate information. Acknowledge the anxiety, distress, and grief that people experience during long-term, major public health events such as pandemics. “
“Communications preparedness for an influenza pandemic, as outlined in this supplement, follows seven key risk communications concepts.
When health risks are uncertain, as likely will be the case during an influenza pandemic, people need information about what is known and unknown, as well as interim guidance to formulate decisions to help protect their health and the health of others. Coordination of message development and release of information among federal, state, and local health officials is critical to help avoid confusion that can undermine public trust, raise fear and anxiety, and impede response measures. Guidance to community members about how to protect themselves and their family members and colleagues is an essential component of crisis management. Information provided to the public should be technically correct and succient without seeming patronizing. Information presented during an influenza pandemic should minimize speculation and avoid over-interpretation of data, overly confident assessments of investigations and control measures. An influenza pandemic will generate immediate, intense, and sustained demand for information from the public, healthcare providers, policy makers, and news media. Healthcare workers and public health staff are likely to be involved in media relations and public health communications. Timely and transparent dissemination of accurate, science-based information about pandemic influenza and the progress of the response can build public trust and confidence .”…
(Oops!)
With regard to banks etc calling in mortgages post pandemic I was wondering if they might already have their hands too full to have the time for a while. If a large percentage of the population has died/become incapacitated the banks will be dealing with all the wills of the deceased that need to be settled and there will also be a huge number of life assurance claims and illness and incapacity insurances to sort. There will also be a large number of empty houses which would presumably cause the housing market to crash, making the cost of reclaiming houses more than the market value to be gained. Surely if there is the outside chance of the owners paying their mortgage at some point the banks would prefer that to no chance of regaining their investment at all?
ahh just realised that this is being discussed on another thread simultaneously to my writing. Great minds thinking alike and all that.. :)
Will people really be told what a worst-case pandemic is,
and what H5N1’s current demographics and cfr are,
so they will start to go stock up,
since local municipalities are in “plandemic” limbo ?
Reader :1:56 Conspiracy Theory I placed your post, which I enjoyed reading, onto the rumors thread X. See what kind of reaction this generates there…
Thom, Just my 2 cents worth. ;-) Couldn`t you sell current house, move wife and kiddies to secure new house, and then rent a small apartment to stay in during the week ? Or, buy a small travel trailer or motor home.
I just skipped thru this thread for the first time. One subject that kept catching my eye was about making mortgage payments. Banks are in the money business. The last thing they want is your house. More than likely they will allow interest only payments. You will only pay the monthly interest amount. This would stay in effect for as long as necessary, IMHO.
In even a moderate PF scenario many/most banks will likely fail due to panic amongst the depositors. As people don’t or can’t go to work they will withdraw their savings for either purchases or simply to have cash in hand. These same people will also stop paying credit cards, car loans, mortgages, business loans etc. . . FDIC only has 1.3% of U.S deposits covered, so a $100,000 deposit is potentially only worth $1,300 when widespread bank failure occurs, and that is if individuals can wade through the bureaucracy and the hordes of paniced people trying to do the same thing.
If 20% of the workforce is ill and another 10–15% is staying home caring for them how many non-essential businesses will cease to exist almost overnight? Restaurants, nail salons, bookstores, plastic surgeons, car dealers, all the businesses in malls, the list is endless. Now all those business owners and employees are unemployed essentially permantently, not able to pay their bills, using up whatever credit limit they have left on the credit cards and any cash they have in savings. . .
WOn’t help me JWB. My whole payment is interest free! LOL
Homesteader – at 17:45
After the Depression and bank failures of the 1800′s, new banking rules were put into place to help prevent some of what you are talking about.
My husband worked in banking for 17 years and there are emergency rules that can be put into place if “runs” on the bank occurs.
Kathy in FL
Uh, Kathy, those “emergency rules” are meant to protect the banks, not the depositors. Easy access to bank accounts in a pandemic will be non-existant.
Surfer – at 08:01
Protecting the banks does mean protecting the depositors. By keeping banks viable, deposits will be better protected.
I’m not saying people won’t take hits in the purse. We are trying to make a business continuity plan based on that assumption. We operate as a DBA (“doing business as”) which essentially means we are our business and the business is us … we are not protected by incorporation. So our regular checking account for our personal use is also our business account.
Easy access to bank accounts is really only a modern convenience. In the “old days” people didn’t use banks unless necessary because of the difficulty of trying to operate in a rural area. And many businesses were “cash only” even into the 20th century.
I’ve heard some of the old folks say that they didn’t put their money in the bank because it was so durned hard to get out when they needed it. My people were rural farmers in KY and TN … may have been a demographic prejudice though.
Just one more reason to stock up NOW and to keep a supply of cash on hand NOW … later may very well be too late.
Interest only payments wouldn’t help much anyway. For the first dozen or so years most of the payment IS interest.
Wish this was being publically discussed in the media by governments; people might be motivated to prep and survive a couple of waves and be around - how do places expect their economies to recover if they are willing to let pandemic reap unaware sectors? Think of the brains and skills lost, too.
I am hopin gI can “fly under the radar” if TSHTF. My landlord lives in Germany and I am in Florida. He is a billionaire and ths littel piece of property is so low on his priority list, he probably won’t try to “push” anything. The banking realty association that supervises our renting of the property is un by 3 older ladies that don’t even know we are here whenever anyone calls to verify residence. In fact, one month we literally both forgot to drop off the rent (both thought the other had done it) and even 20 days after the due date (when I finally wondered why the check hadn’t cleared yet), they still hadn’t even given us a courtesy call! I just dropped it off then and we never heard a peep about it. This may really help us out if things go bad.
We live paycheck to paycheck and my other half has already been out of work essentially since June with a bad back. She just had surgery last week and will be out of work until probably late December. My paycheck has managed to just get us by, paying the bills, buying groceries and even prepping for at least 3 months worth of food and supplies. I had to break down and take out a small loan to cover all the medical expenses I am expecting to come flooding in over the next few weeks. Thank God I took out a good medical insurance policy for her at work. Her work didn’t offer medical and I don’t need it because I have the VA. That insurance investment we started this past January has sooooo paid off. But this lack of the 2nd salary and impending medical bills has completely stopped any ability to try and “save up” any extra money to pay for future bills in the event that I am unable to work. We would need at least 6 months of 2 salaries before we could even think about trying to develop any savings. We are tapped now and literally start going negative on Feb 1st.
This has been a good excercise in “adapting financial to weather a pandemic” at least. I managed to run the household on just my paychecks for 6 months. It wouldn’t work the other way around. And if the pandemic hits, I can only expect 3 weeks paid from my employer (my sick & vacation time). Let’s hope this thing holds off for at least another winter!
Actually, on the other side of this, we may be personally much better off in the “rebuilding society”. Houses wil be much cheaper and available everywhere. I should still have a good job. My employer has already weathered the pandemics of 1890 and 1918, as well as the great depression, and survived.
JWB – at 17:42
I agree completely. My grandfather, a 1918 pandemic survivor, was in the banking business during the Great Depression. He said that the last thing the bank wanted was to repossess someone’s house. They were happy if they could keep someone living in the house that could pay even a modest amount toward the loan. I don’t see how it would be much different in a coming pandemic. Why would a bank want to accumulate a lot of depreciated property in a flooded housing market? Better to get whatever cash that they can from the residents.
I start this thread questioning if our fluwikie folks would indeed stay home during each wave or not. It seems that the driving force of people not doing a strict SIP may be the fear of losing ones home thus the need to continue to work, if the jobs are still there. Add to that the possible need for additional food, water and medical supplies or actual medical (doctor) services then SIPing, staying home, seems like a real long shot.
It appears that there are not a lot of us who cannot go for a year with no additional income and still make all our ‘normal’ payments, even if we get rid of the extra stuff that we can live without.
It looks like the general consensus is that if this thing does get really bad then we will have some flexibility in making our mortgage payments, which is the primary concern.
From everything I have seen my take on the above is that the banks will work with us, if we give them a chance, like notifying them right away if we will be having problems with the full payment amount. I’m sure that they will take ½ or 1/3 of the payment during this time just to have some money coming in and not end up with an empty house that will be vandalized, taken over by squatters, etc.
Aside from the mortgage, I think (hope) that the water, gas, electric and oil, etc. company’s (even if forced by TPTB) will continue delivery (if possible) and also be flexibly in their request for payment – no shut-offs for non-payment.
Granted in my minds eye this will work but once on the other side there will be arrangements to ‘catch up’ on outstanding bills.
One last thing that is bugging me – if I go into this thing with a house carrying a $600,000 mortgage and live through the worse (real high CFR) then I wonder what it will be worth on the other side? Maybe half? :-(
(nothing personal, Thom) Those are the kind of problems we’d like to have… compared to civil unrest, looting, gang/psychopath violence,
and plain old getting sick and dying or becoming disabled, or needing standard emergency care and not being able to get it and dying or becoming disabled
or parents having to watch their children get sick and die and somehow deal with the bodies.
“FDIC only has 1.3% of U.S deposits covered” Sigh. So much to do, so little ready on the ground.
Do I think Americans will stay home? NO!!!
People don’t stay home now after mass disasters. They all want to go see what the neighborhood looks like…even if it is 50 miles away. The public today tends to have opposition to authority. No one wants to follow rules. Rules/laws are merely suggestions, usually applicable to someone else. IMO, it will take curfews and force to limit activity unless fuel supplies run out.
IMO, the vast majority believes that humans are so omnipotent that surely, some unseen virus could not possibly bring this great country to a screeching halt. Surely, there will be medications and technology to protect or cure them. Surely.
Unfortunately, some laws are unforgiving. Those pertaining to physics, physiology, evolution, etc. It should be interesting to see a population that is used to thrwarting rules/laws have to deal with massive restrictions. It ain’t gonna be pretty.
As an addendum to the banking part of this thread…I have been surprised at how the financial institutions are preparing for this panflu. Even at the meeting I attended, the one business that expressed some rather advanced preparation, was the credit union and bank. Moreso than the hospitals and healthcare agencies.
Cockroaches and bankers just might be the only survivors. ;) <I wonder if anyone has tried to infect cockroaches yet?>
nsthesia — the cynical side of me (yes I do have one) says that people with money will always try to protect it.
But then, the optimistic side of me says, it is probably a lot easier for banks and financial institutions to plan for a pandemic than most other areas of business in many ways. They don’t really produce anything, they just move it around, so they aren’t really at the mercy of suppliers. Banks can do most things remotely (assuming the internet is up, there is electrcity and so on) so they can more readily expect emplyees to show up for work (less reason not to — not contact with the public) and so on.
EMTim – at 09:05 Interest only payments wouldn’t help much anyway. For the first dozen or so years most of the payment IS interest.
That’s true. But as Hillbilly Bill – at 10:31 stated the banks want to survive too. Even partial interest payments over foreclosure is in everyone’s interest. (no pun intended)