Continued from here
Tom DVM and Commonground…thanks for your thoughts. I have a lot of respect for your opinions.
Meserole in FL: *Please* post your dreams in the dream thread!
Newsie: Of course I allow myself to be guided by intuition; it allows that amazing computer, the mind, to perceive patterns in the noise that might make the difference between survival or no. The intelligent person allows their intuition inform their cognition; to do without it would create a tremendous blind spot in perception. In no way does intution obviate cognition — they work together as a team.
Far from the “hive mind” here making me more anxious, it has done just the opposite. The longer I’ve been here, the more firmly convinced I’ve become that a pandemic is near, yet I’ve become more relaxed about it as I’ve adapted. Sometimes I think I joke too much now when there are so many newbies who are still so very scared and taking things very seriously! Now that is certainly an example of being led by my emotions more than by logic… but I don’t see that as a bad thing. It just is.
Oh, and though I don’t self-identify as a mom here, I certainly ended up here first and foremost with my kids in mind… (shrug) Anything wrong with that? I’ve seen many dads mention how love and concern for their kids has driven their decision to prep. We are all alike in that.
Have a question — where should I post it? If regular seasonal flu shots are only good (effective) from 6 months to a year or so, how long would avian flu vaccinations protect? Would people have to get a fresh shot every year as long as the virus is around? Boosters?
It dawned on me one day, that I hadn’t heard anything in months about this bird flu, when before that was all I heard in the main stream media. I wondered what had become of it, so one night, I started google searching, and lordy, lordy, guess who I found? It has really been an eye opener for me, a great learning experience for me, and a great experience in meeting new like minded people. Call it fate, destiny, intuition, but something prompted me to find out what was going on. Sometimes I wish I hadn’t ask that question. It really gets too scary when I hearing things. I like my comfortable, (but broke), life. I like going out in public and talking to women while I standing in line. I like running the roads, (A little too much according to “boss”). I just can’t imagine loosing our family life, due to pandemic, panic, looters, ect. But I’m not alone in my fears, and this place has helped me in more than one. My PPF had now gone to a solid 4, since this past week. Unfortunately, prepping will have to go on hold until after christmas.
I have always been a divergent thinker and I think most other posters on this forum are exemplars of the same trait. A larger number of us read Science Fiction than is probably present in the general population and we have minds that can work with “what if” scenarios easily. We all tend to be prudent I believe. To that extent most of us are like-minded individuals, or we probably wouldn’t be here at all. A lot of our consensus is because we are a self-selected population.
I feel you would see much the same consensus build up among any group with these same characteristics if they were exposed to the same news articles and reports. We take umbrage when we are accused of group-think because that is contrary to most of our natures and self-perception. When we lash back at someone who accuses of us of “group think”, we feel our critical- thinking skills are being questioned and, as a group, most of us excel in this area.
In summary, group-think…no. Similar minds…yes.
Oh, by the way, newsie. Have you forgotten MajDad? He had Dad in his handle.
You know, I believe we, as a group, did give MajDad a bad rap. I think he mistakenly typed ready.com instead of ready.gov. I have made this kind of mistake in typing URLs many times.
Northstar,
Your comment about what drew you here was a good one. It made me realize that my PPF needs to be qualified. For myself, I may only be at a 2 or 3, an I am probably at a 7 for my wife, but I am at a 9.5 for my children.
You know, since Albert mentioned India’s yellow journalism, I have realized it is much more difficult to come to a completely accurate conclusion when reading an article from the foreign press. We are usually unfamiliar with the publication’s reputation.I’m certainly not accustomed to having almost no basis to judge the trustworthiness of the source I am reading. I may unwittingly be reading a sensationalized story from a foreign equivalent of the National Enquirer. Being unfamiliar with the mores and customs of another country is another impediment to complete understanding. Then there is the hurdle of having to use machine translations.
I would like to extend kudos to our people that cover places like Indonesia and India. Those machine translations make me feel like my head is full of “cotton, hay, and rags” but our newshounds seem to be able to make mostly valid condlusions from reading from what often seems like gobbledygook. It takes a lot of determination and lot of time to keep plugging away at these kinds of articles. We all appreciate you a lot.
With the timing of the “Chinese flu” and tone of the news releases today, I’m up a notch.
Goju-arn’t you supposed to be going on vacation-didn’t I hear “Bahamas”? Go on vacation, relax, have a great time, come home all rested,then kick your ppf up a notch. Don’t think about the flu-we’ll watch and worry for you while your gone. I’ll take the one am shift!
I am with Goju here, mine went up a notch, maybe two after the “Chinese Flu” hit the news. Right now I am feeling antsy, and hoping this is not the beginning of the pandemic, because I still have things I need to do to be really comfortable in being prepared. Also, DH promised to get me a Big Berkey for Christmas! I sure would feel a lot better having that here and ready for use, so if the PF can just hold off until after I get that Berkey…
deborah – at 13:55 “just hold off until after I get that Berkey”
we have already gotten most of our Christmas gifts and they are “prep” related. Books, swiss army knives, solar chargers and so on. That way we will have them even if it hits before Christmas. (although I still guess Feb or Mar)
Nepal has kicked mine up from a 2.5 to a 4
Where’s that tank i wanted for xmas?
deborah – at 13:55 I am with Goju here, mine went up a notch, maybe two after the “Chinese Flu” hit the news.
I’ve been lurking around trying to find out about this “Chinese Flu” that is being batted around. Could someone please direct me to a thread or link so I can catch up?
Thanks in advance!
JWB – at 14:51
Here’s one: New strain of bird flu found in China’s poultry markets
I’m glad I looked up a link for you JWB, the artical contains a link to the full report that I had not read. Link below.
authors H. Chen *, {dagger}, {ddagger}, G. Deng *, {dagger}, Z. Li *, G. Tian *, Y. Li *, P. Jiao *, L. Zhang *, Z. Liu *, R. G. Webster §, and K. Yu
The evolution of H5N1 influenza viruses in ducks in southern China
JWB – at 14:51
Tom DVM use the term “china flu” last night and the name stuck. Tom DVM – at 22:20 on A Current Threat Assessment X
Or at least that is my take on the term.
DennisC – at 15:07
I’ll compete with Tom DVM - how about (1) Fujian Plague - “La Peste de Fujian” (for this particular strain), or (2) China Plague - “La Peste de Chine” (to cover all strains)?
Both names would convey origin and lethality ten times better than avian influenza or bird flu. And they could apply to all species.
PPF still steady at 7 despite the occasional dipping to 6. The day I have my well water sorted out will really lower my PPF.
DennisC – at 14:14
Some people laughed when I said I asked my hubby for the Berkey for Christmas, so it is good to see others who ask for prep items as gifts! ^_^ He asked me what I wanted, and was laughing at me when I told him, but he asked so I told him! hehehe I also said I wanted replacement filters and the repair kit to go along with it, figured I may as well ask for the whole deal. And I plan to use the filter as soon as I get it. Our tap water isn’t very tasty so maybe I will drink more water after I get it.
Note to self: Start buying coffee filters too, in case I ever have to put water in the Berkey from our local river. I want to pre-filter it first to remove sediment and floaties!
deborah – at 19:09
Last Christmas my mom had asked my dad for a two burner camp stove, as a prep item for bird flu. Dad got it for her. ;-) He’s been prepping also. He has some doubts as to whether it will happen, but looks upon it as a form of insurance.
I started pushing my family to prep about two years ago. I don’t think anyone will be ready, but we will all be prepared.
Okieman – at 20:57
I got one of those this month! Along with 4 of the 1b. propane containers. We already have a big one for the BBQ but I am not sure what size it is. Which reminds me, I need to go trade it in for a full container, and get an adaptor so the camp stove can be hooked up to the large container of propane if needed. Does your mom have an adaptor for hers? Or is it one of those that run on white gas?
deborah I saw some adaptor hoses at wally world this past weekend. they were in the camping/sporting goods section.
picked up a couple of spigots just in case. also just wactched that abc movie, fatal contact:bird flu in america, I think it’s called. just came out on dvd. ok. I’m tired and going to bed. night all.
deborah – at 21:18
It runs on unleaded gasoline.
Wow, didn’t realize this was the ppf thread. sorry about the hijack. My ppf is holding at a 6.5.
With reference to my post at 15:48
I should like to respond to Anon_22 and others (on another thread) on the subject of “ethnic labelling” since I proposed the names of “Fujian Plague” or “China Plague”, and some other such like names on another thread some months ago.
Certainly, when you say “ethnic labelling” in this way, that’s exactly how it sounds, and I am sorry if I offended any here. However, my (and others) proposals were not to connote some pejorative way of designating people originating from a particular region. It was simply (1) to distinguish, geographically, where it seems to us and most scientists, that this particular BF comes from; (2) to assign an illness name that would import the dramatic lethality the bird flu carries with it and which the word “plague” conveys better than the word “flu”.
I should also be reminded that we have had many bad ethnic flus, Spanish flu, which did not originate in Spain; Hong Kong flu, Russian flu, Asian flu, etc.
And, finally, I would note too, that the media at some point will pick a horrific name for this illness, when the media realizes exactly what is facing the world and that “bird flu” is a woefully inadequate name for an illness that kills in days with acute respiratory syndrome, secondary bacterial pneumonias, and from what I understand, some diarrheic and hemorragic features. Also, the media will realize that the words “avian influenza” is (a) long and difficult to write, (b) pertains to birds, © conveys the idea of mild illness. “Bird flu” conveys (b) and © above, but it’s easier to read and write, hence why I think at this moment it is more searched on Google than the other. As for the names “influenza pandemic, flu pandemic, or pandemic flu”, they all carry with them the difficulties highlighted in (a), (b) and ©, in addition to which most people with even some good education just cannot quite fathom what is a pandemic.
I’m open to better ideas than mine; we’ve had such discussions about a new name for this illness some months ago. None that we chose then ever stuck in the press. Now why should we want a “dire” name for it? So that people start being aware and prep accordingly. Also, because if we are the first to find a likely name, at least conveying the lethality of the illness, which would not be a reminder of the Black Plague, and which ideally would be easily translatable in other languages, we’d establish it and it would be less likely it would be displaced by some even worse sensational name concocted by the press.
I have posted this reply on the other thread where my proposal to compete with another for a BF name was criticized, but leave it to others if they should wish to debate further and open a new thread.
How about simply H5N1 Flu?
I like China Flu. It is simple. I understand what FenchieGirl is saying, though.
How about smonething like China Death. Flu just seems so every day. An inconvenience. This “Flu” causes bleeding and death. It would be good to have a word to convey that.
Bloody Death Disease (BDD)
“Deadly Flu” or “Deadly China Flu” That is still simple, but conveys both messages.
Superflu.
How about Fluwikie?
How about “Killer flu”…There is news in news thread that calls it that,and I saw it called that in an article last year.Seems appropriate.I bet we will end up with bird flu in the history books tho.
WWF, World Wide Flu,
MOAF, Mother of all Flu’s,
DDF, Dead Dog Flu
FUF, F**k U Flu
But then again…what’s in a name.
PPF 2.5
Kung Flu - It’s got quite a kick.
Goju at 11:54, I almost spit my lunch out from laughing. Good one!
Those who see no need to prep
you’re screwed flu…
ppf5
Just here to do a quick temperature reading.
My spouse let me have the small area beneath the stairs for preps. I filled it and am now considering another purchase that will entail several #10 cans and 7 Super Pails. I’ll have to invade a family closet then.
It has been all quiet on the BF front, esp with the Jakarta Post down for so many days. Am hovering with my decision on whether to pull the trigger on more preps or not. These were going to be beans, grains, rice, etc. to add to our already healthy stocks.
My PPF is at about a 5 right now.
Thanks : )
as far as naming the flu. Bird flu obviously gives people a sense of false assurance. Don’t come in contact with birds that have it and all will be fine. It does need a new identity, perhaps one built on “Ards” Acute respiratory distress syndrome .
Combine Nipah, Avian, and Hanta virus. . .
NAH Flu. . .which is the reaction most people have as in “NAH, cant happen”
Or “I’m from the Government and I’m Here to help Plague” :)
WHO Me Flu
CHARDS ??
Although my PPF will most likely fall again, Until we know more about what is happening in Nepal my PPF went from a zero to a 5.
Boy, I don’t know. Between what’s going on in China and Nepal, I feel like I’m up around a 6 or 7!!
Don’t forget that Thailand has over 5,000 patients under surveillance. Quite frankly, all this has made my stomach hurt!
After doing my daily reading, I’m not sure anyone knows what is truly going on overseas. I have actually gone up 1 point in the last few days, especially after reading the news from China.
Watching in Texas – at 22:42
5,000 people in Thailand under surveillance?! Where is that info (please)? I don’t see a Thailand thread and couldn’t find anything about it on the daily news thread.
I too would like to know about the Thailand reference -
under the radar - Annie B at 04:42 on the October 29th news thread posted about this. I have been checking the site daily and the numbers have increased a little each day, but not by much. 5,354 cases on Oct. 29th and today was 5,391. I am watching for those numbers to increase by significant numbers before I get really worried. I am concerned a little right now, but not worried. Although, with the news out of Nepal and China….let’s just say I am watchful;-)
I’m still around a 2–3, but then I’ve pretty much stopped reading the news threads that closely. Nepal? China? Thailand? Gotta love this peaceful state of denial. :-)
(I’m glad we’re prepped.)
Clawdia – at 23:51 , under the radar – at 23:27
you can get info about Thailand here:
http://thaigcd.ddc.moph.go.th/AI_case_report_061102.html
You have to change the last numbers to get the right date. year, month day They are normally about a day or two behind.
right now, “Cumulative number of patients under surveillance are 5,391 cases 72 provinces” and “There are 14 cases under investigate reported, of which waiting for laboratory result”.
read the definitions at the bottom.
It is important to notice that they list everyone what they think might be exposed and they seldom get a positive test. They are looking real hard but have yet to see much.
DennisC - thanks! I appreciate your posting the link, as I am linkless:)
After following Nepal for the last few weeks, but PPF has “skyrocketed” from 2 up to 3. Nepal sure is looking like what I thought the start would look like but so far no virus has been detected. We should know in a few days. Now if they do find H5N1, who knows were I will be. If it is H5N1 in Nepal then it has a high CFR, a R0 of around 2 and about a 7 day incubation period- none of which is good. (that would lead to a saturated world pandemic by March or April- my math model)
What Nepal worry is right now-lack of information.But keeping things in prespective, it is not good to assume much from lack of information. If you do that you just live in fear since there is so much more we don’t know than we do know.
DennisC - based on your estimate above, IF this is “it”, and you are looking at saturated world pandemic by March or April - what does your math model show about when it would hit North America?
IF this was it, my crystal ball (really just some population density, doubling rates and such) guess is that: We would have 200 to 800 cases in the US by mid/late Jan. - Most of those in the costal regions.
But hay, I am no epidemiologist- just a biophysicist that likes to play with numbers every now and then.
Again, this is based on ASSUMING that Nepal has “it” and it has had “it” since Aug, and the 4000 there have “it”, and so on- Lots and lots of assumptions and little real information. We need to wait a week or so and see if anything becomes of all the Nepal activity.
re naming flu
tard flu
Terminal Acute Respitory Distress
tards if you add a syndrome at the end.
I am not overly concerned about North Carolina or Nepal. Not good, but not pandemic. I think we will be dealing with more and more illnesses of every sort. We have dropped back decades into another time and place. We have been very lucky for a long time, and it looks like the worlds luck is fast evaporating. Too many people, too much pollution, too much of everything negative resulting in a witches brew of illnesses.
My PPF is all out of whack. It seems like many of us go up and down but lately my ups have been WAY up and then the downs are WAY down. I have noticed more extremes in the ‘group’ awareness levels and the volume/seriousness of the news lately. I may be wrong, won’t be the first time, but that is what it seems like to me. I am prior military; served during the cold war. We were constantly training for war and although I never wanted to go to war, I felt ready. We (the military) were like a spring, waiting to be released. A lot of tension. Awareness level was high. I get that same feeling now sometimes.
I’d say my current PPF is a 4. It was a 3 but Nepal and Thailand bumped it one…and I think it’s more the lack of follow-up that frustrates me more than anything. We’ll hear that 5,000 are under surveillance, and then NOTHING. I was functioning just fine at a 3 since my last “adjustment reaction”…I think I have another one of those pencilled in for early December. Christmas presents will be water purifiers and camp stoves. Hope my little nieces enjoy them!
bump
I’m at a 5. The more I prep, the lower my PPF goes. I know that’s silly, because the flu isn’t going to be stopped by my preps! I think that I fear civil unrest and/or starvation more than I fear the pandemic itself.
The whole situation is likely going to be out of control, so I do what I can to control my own little area of responsibility. It gives me a [false] sense of security.
My PPF has no relation to my prepping.
I am holding at 5
watching all the strange disease reports worldwide… remembering Barry’s (The Great Influenza) noting misdiagnosis… ABBF.
We could have a virus whose symptoms change and are not classic flu just as easily as a CFR change.
ABBF = Anything But Bird Flu. I thought I would clarify since it does not appear to be in the wiki shorthand list. :)
Goju at 19:05
The massive outbreaks of dengue fever worry me for exactly this reason.
Meserole at 1830- I don’t think thats silly at all-thats how I feel. My ppf dropped signicantly after a major supply buy. Its a tossup between which worries me more- the flu or the civil unrest.
My PPF has pretty much evened out. I think the coverage of the elections have dominated all the media outlets,MSM or otherwise. So much chatter, hard to focus.
I heard Tom was prepping, my PPF has shot to 8. That is one of the signs of the Apocalypse ya know.
Oremus – at 23:05 I heard Tom was prepping, my PPF has shot to 8. That is one of the signs of the Apocalypse ya know.
Where did you hear that? That is one of my early warning signals.
After reading this article, (while I was waiting to get back to the forum, about China denying that the Fuijian strain exists, and the publication that said it was so, also said that the Fuijian strain has already stread to Malaysia, the Laos, and Thailand, my pff is at a solid 4, but that would push it to an 8 if this is true.
I had been holding mostly at a PPF of 2. The events in Nepal got me to a 3.
But this Chan DG appointment, followed by the next day of China denying that the Fuijian strain even exists has pushed it up to a 7. We are doomed if this goes on. China is in denial even thought the science shows “The researchers analyzed the genomes of 390 (30%) of the 1,294 virus isolates and found that 68% (266 of 390) of them were in the new Fujian-like lineage.” See the work of Webster and others (CIDRAP News Nov 3). Notice they offer no evidence only denial. They say they want to be transparent but they don’t release the sequences.
What little hope and respect I had for UN/WHO is completely gone. WHO is “rolling over” for China. Lood at what they do, not what they say.
DennisC-
This has me very worried, and I now have blind hope that they will confirm this. I too have lost what little respect I had for WHO. You know, when I was a child, the WHO organization was respected, and looked upon as “help”. Can not say that anymore.
mj – at 23:13
Tom DVM said it at 17:54 on Nov 1 on the Canadian Preppers 3 thread “. . . Anyway, yes it is time to get prepping. I’m afraid that time is short…but like I said before…we are on nature’s time and I am not quite sure what ‘short’ in natures terms are. . . . However, pretty much everything is in place for a H5N1 (China Flu) breakout…and as before, I hope I am wrong.”
I don’t think there was anything in particular, probably just that he’s been fearing this winter for a while.
cottontop – at 23:38
What it tells me that just like we will be on our own, nations will be on their own. I worried before that the WHO phase was low at 3 but this is really sad. The very first thing out of China after Chan is denial of the existence of a strain. I had hoped that they would start with release of the sequences, working with other nations and so one. But no they hoard the sequences, deny other peoples sequence work, and “cut off Taiwan”.
We are on our own- nation-by-nation, city-by-city, and person-by-person. That is not good. I wished that they would forget the politics. The virus just doesn’t care if the chickens are in China, Tibet, Taiwan, Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt or where. All that matters to it is the acquiring of the right sequence to jump. If China would just release the sequences and work with the rest of the world we just might solve this problem. I just don’t understand why they think that sending out denials and quibbling over what makes a strain different is better than sharing sequences. I really don’t care what country the XXX strain is from. I only want to know what the sequences are, how to make the vaccines, and how to stop it before the whole planet gets it.
mj – at 23:13
On ‘Canadian Preppers 3′ thread, Nov. 1st
Tom DVM – at 16:54
Thanks for bringing up the personal prepping. I was discussing with my wife Sue last night, that it is time for us to start prepping. I personally, think that the China Flu could break open at any time…
I’ve been holding around an 8 for a good while now - but the now-you-see-it-now-you-don’t warning for those in HK has pushed me a bit higher . . . I’d say 8.5, if I had to quantify it. All it would take to send it to a 9 would be a new cluster, or any of a myriad different happenings . . .
You know what a bad PPF is? When you could bend a piece of rebar just by squinching up. :)
Mine is a steady 1.265. Try to utilize the stress as energy to get your preps where they need to be, then live your life. I hate to see people getting all tied in knots, it’s all pain with no reward.
I think BF will end up being called deathflu. Don’t go runnin’ for the URL, you’re too late! :)
Still at a 6 and prepping.
The State Department now-you-see-it-now-you-don’t announcement has added a little more concern on my part.
Article today detailing WHO apologizing to China for “misusing” chinese sequences.
Link: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200611/10/eng20061110_320427.html
Another article reveals that H5N1 being present in healthy ducks, starlings, and pigeons in the Crimea.
Link: http://www.iflu.org/?p=24538
The Crimea information tells us that the H5N1 is present in healthy resident and migratory birds. Testing and tracking efforts cannot possibly give a true picture of where H5N1 is spreading, but can only do so after the fact when birds have either died or the testers get lucky and test a healthy bird.
Despite the growing evidence that H5N1 is evolving towards H2H and spreading worldwide how many of us have some, albeit small, level of denial that impedes our daily prepping effort? What level of denial are you in?
I was driving my kids (ages 10 and 12) to school this morning and discussing our preps with them. It was a gorgeous bright warm morning with the sun highlighting the late fall foliage. We talked about Thanksgiving being right around the corner and how we should have gone to the local Waterpark more often this summer. What will our beautiful corner of the world look like 12 months from now?
Oremus – at 00:04 I had not seen that one. My PPF was going back down. With him prepping, I will start the final and lock it all in. Watching China do the two step and Ms Chan being their partner, This puppy will smack us in the face and no one will see it coming, PPF was a zero about 10 days ago, up to a strong 6, and no new cases reported.
Anon_451…I have a feeling that things will be “quiet”, as far as BF news is concerned, with regard to Indonesia, until after the President’s visit on Nov. 20th. It will be interesting to see if my “hunch” is correct.
Bird Guano at 1:04
The pandemic threat seems grave enough, but the quashing of the State Department warning disillusions me utterly regarding the help that government will be. The U.S. government might not have been able to feed us during a pandemic, or maintain security, or protect us with vaccines or antivirals, but government might at least have told us the truth so that we could act upon it. Billions spent on worthy and relevant research initiatives will go for nothing if people have no food or water. My PPF now factors in the almost certain knowledge that the majority of Americans will be broadsided by a pandemic for which they are not prepared.
From Monotremes blog: Retraction of the US State Department 3 month SIP Recommendations
How should we interpret this? There have been a number of indications that everyone is not getting the same information regarding how long to prepare for. Some of this is likely do to with clueless local public health officials. However, it also appears that the federal government may be making different recommendations to different groups of people. Why not tell everyone to prep for 12 weeks? Because there isn’t enough storable food for the entire population for that period of time, IMO. Who is being told to stockpile for 12 weeks? It appears to me to be essential workers. In a sense, triage has already begun. In some ways, this makes sense. Without essential workers, everything else will collapse in a very severe pandemic. But what will happen when the public finds out that some people had an early warning but that they didn’t. And that now the grocery stores are empty?
You know. We are hard to please. We have been pushing the governments to tell the public. They have done that at the US Consulate in Hong Kong (although subsequently retracted). It may take a few false starts before they got it right and know how to inform the public without causing panic.
The problem is when we see such an announcement, we tend to believe it’s because the insiders know something we don’t, and our PPF’s go through the roof. I think the more they talk about this in public, and the less we react with our PPF scale, the safer we will all be when TSHTF. I don’t want TPTB to be scared by our over reaction and hesitate to tell the public.
I don’t think the virus is taking a sudden turn for the worse. I think we can really trip over ourselves by too much witch hunting.
Inky-I so agree with you. I just feel like everyone is so on their own. I also agree with Snowhound-that we will not have anymore BF news until after the 20th.
I don’t even know if I HAVE a ppf anymore. I think it short circuited. I had a major freak-out meltdown a few weeks back- that adjustment reaction thing.
Here’s my thinking/feeling- I beleive we will have a pandemic outbreak-so on that score ppf is 10. However-I think it will probably happen after the holidays, so while I’m watchful, I’m not as hyper vigilent as to blips in the domestic news. I think we all have to be more vigilent in overseas news because I feel that there will be NO “official” warning- not from China, not from WHO not from the state department. I feel down because I don’t think the Government will help us- even if the new powershift in Gov means more help I think it will take too long, however, on a personal note I have just hit my three month prep mark, plus holiday shopping done.
Then theres the time thing-the longer I live with this, the calmer (overall) I feel. Weirdly, I have stopped wondering if I’m being too paranoid about this, althoughs Im sure others might, because I’m more and more convinsed of the pandemic-its definatly no longer if but when for me. But I feel a disconnect with so many people who seemingly have no clue about a pandemic.
They say they are killing the dogs in China because many are not vaccinated, and hundreds of people have died of Rabies. Pretty gruesome as they are clubbing them to death and many owners are protesting. Am also concerned about the WHO investuresure.Every now and then I take a longish break from H5N1 news and feel refreshed by the normal day to day pleasures of life. At least we don’t have dogs being killed in front of our eyes. Can you imagine it here? There would be a massive drive to innoculate the animals. So much is going on in China that we can’t know and that I feel is hidden. It would be foolish to ignore the news for more than a week at a time. But my feeling is still 1.5 and that we have time to enjoy our lives as they are. Certainly I don’t feel anxious and have never lost sleep. It is rational and sane to keep a weather eye open and not get blindsided. I might not say anything politically incorrect, but I think we have been sandbagged.
I’ve finally gotten round to writing on this thread. :-)
When I stop to think about it, I don’t have a high PPF for pandemic breaking out in the near future, probably at 3 max 4. But when I think of what it takes to get society ready, then unless I actively stop myself, I can end up staying at a high level of urgency continuously. Which obviously is not good for myself.
On the subject of triage, for about 2 months now, I’ve started triaging almost everyday between how soon might a pandemic happen (and therefore how ready am I. Answer: Not.) and how important it is to work hard on policy and public education fronts (cos these things take time, and they are far less easy to achieve than personal preps). So I guess I do experience the high PPF that some of you talk about, but mostly in a mild state of anxiety as to whether I’m getting the balance right between these two aspects,or whether I’m missing some of the news.
diana, I watched the movie ‘The Constant Gardener’ again the other day, and the scenes from African towns really hit me with the enormity of the tragedy that a pandemic can bring. Places with masses of people, open sewers, tin shacks as dwelling places, ‘hospitals’ with no doctors or meds. There was a kid who walked 40 km to take his sister to hospital, and had to walk back again with her baby after she died.
Sometimes it’s a little hard to believe that our opinions or thoughts can ever get anywhere near what the realities are. It’s very sobering.
This weeks news with the Warden’s Message made my PPF go to a 7. The retraction just reinforced it. Watch what they do……haven’t had any news out of Indonesia. I don’t think we’ll hear anything from China. All of this….keeps me at a 7.
Yes, I remember “The Constant Gardener.” Went to a lecture about one of our former neighbors, Charles Englehard. His friend and oftentimes guest used him as his Goldfinger character. Basis. Englehard shipped art objects made of precious metals out of South Africa. The loophole in the law prohibited bullion going out, not religeous objects or art. It ended up in Hong Kong where it was melted down and became marketable as raw bullion. Englehard rather enjoyed the book, even calling one of his Stewardesses on his fleet of jets, after the female character ,Pussy Galore. There is a lot going on, as there always is, with many characters, certainly not all Chinese. There are so many balls in the air, so many nations and the men who are the leaders involved. The sad thing is that the leaders are usually only the front men, and the men behind their rise to power reap the rewards, while we all pay the price. All we can do is watch, and talk and write and think.
snip
Joshua Epstein is a member of the computer simulation project. “We have computer scientists and epidemiologists and demographers and economists and very diverse teams of people contributing to aspects of the modeling,” he said. “And government agencies, for example: the transportation data needs to be obtained from the FAA and other agencies. So it involves big-time computing, big-time expertise and a lot of quite creative collaboration, not a small project.”
snip
“For the most severe, the ultra scenario, it was very dramatic. We had over $4.4 trillion wiped off the world economy. 140 million people killed.
Comment
Someone PLEASE tell me these so-called “Experts” are not typical of the people working for a mitigating solution to the coming pandemic.
How the H*ll do they come up with their most severe, the ultra scenario 140 million dead.
Are they totally brain dead?!!
I am doubling my preps. (maybe quadrupling them)
I have nothing but contempt for those “Experts”. My personal pissed off factor is at a 10.
My ppf remains at 4.
Botched the link:
Oremus-I read this report and one thing stood out-just who ARE these people? No credentials are given other than they are “Big-time computing experts”-my fifteen year old son would like to think he’s a big-time computing expert. Maybe it was just sloppy writing but there were several little things in the article that made me question the expertise of these folks.
On the other hand, Wired Magazine had a five page article last Jan. - “The Battle to Stop Bird Flu” very well written, with background info on the 1976 non-pandemic
(why 1976? havn’t a clue)
Any way, computer guys at Los Alamos NAtional Lab have come up with a computer simulation called EpiSim. This info goes straight to Dept. of Homeland Security, Dept of Health and Human Services, and ultimantly to the President. Their findings indicate there is no “wave” but a mere two weeks from the first AF case to the entire country being blanketed. They are still working with all sorts of sims, but a HHS report taking these sims into account says “The NAtion will be severly taxed if not overwhelmed….the disease could spread to as many as 90 million Americans, hospitalizing 10 million and killing almost 2 million”
Those estimates are not in line with other estimates I have been hearing. But if the Gov is using these “facts” for their planning-its no wonder their planning is off. Plus I would like to know-where are they gonning to find 10 million hospital beds?
(don’t forget the support staff - beds and vets are junk alone)
Oremus – at 00:50, I’m with ya on contempt for authorities politicians and their experts, and 10 on the personally-steamed factor.
vents (not that the animal vets aren’t on the panflu staff lists, har har)
“Green Mom – at 09:31 (why 1976? havn’t a clue) “
1976 was the year for the “Swine flu” that didn’t happen.
There are about 1 million “normal” hospital beds in the US and these are largely dedictated to those sick with non-flu diseases. If anywhere near 10 million needed hospital care, then very few would get it, even with heroic additions using schools and other large buildings as temporary care facilities. The shortage of supplies and HCW would overwhelm the system in short order even if everyone showed up, which many will not. Best advice: Prep, stay home, get vaccinated (flu and pneumovax) and don’t get sick. If you do get sick, hope that someone has medicines that can help with secondary infections.
“Their findings indicate there is no “wave” but a mere two weeks from the first AF case to the entire country being blanketed”
is there a link for this… ? (Not that those who “will not” see will take their head out of the sand to look, but…)
Green Mom – at 09:31
Yeah, I realize those nimrods are people probably blinded by their own imagined self importance. I needed to vet…..er…..vent. I guess it’s because I’m so tired of seeing predictions that have such low CFR’s. All this does is keep people from prepping. 140M out of 6.6B is only 2%. People that use those numbers figure they have a 98% chance of living through this in a worst case scenario. It’s criminal to give them such false hope.
IMHO, I pray this virus never figures out phase 5 & 6. If it does, I see 1918 as being a BEST case scenario.
Assuming a 30% attack rate in 1918, world population of 1.85 billion gives you 555 million people infected. Death estimates range from 20 to 100+ million. If 20 million, CFR would be 3.6%. If 100 million, CFR would be 18% (this is low if deaths were over 100M).
If you have those percentages today, with a population of 6.6 billion, you get:
1.98 billion infected. With a CFR of 3.6% you get 71 million dead. With a CFR of 18% you get 356 million dead. How many dead does it take for infrastructure collapse?
I think that, because the demographics since 1918 have shifted our population, from a largly rural, to a largely urban concentration, along with the speed of travel, the attack rate will be much greater. How much so, I don’t know. CFR in 2006 (by WHO numbers) is 68% worldwide and 80% in Indonesia. It will have to lose a huge amount of lethality to get to the 1918 level.
Some might think the U.S. has better medicine than Indonesia. While true, their treatment thus far is the same as ours will be; Tamiflu, force fluids, respirators. Indonesia has the luxury of cases trickling in. A pandemic will swamp facilities so much, a patient will be lucky to receive any treatment.
I’m not prepping for the flu, I’m prepping for the collapse.
Oremus I cannot tell you how much I enjoy your posts! They always make me smile even when they are disconcerting.
The pissed off factor- I’m only a 3 but that’s because I’ve never been able to stay angry longer than 5 minutes
BUT The I can’t believe what they’re doing factor- would be a 10.
MY PPF - maybe a 5 because I’m prepping not just for BF but a “long” term disruption to normal life. This includes the usual food/ supplies but also an economic prepping- paying off the car asap and then the house.
There seems to be a vast amount of activity the past few months in governements worldwide - reports / plans etc that makes me seriously wonder what’s up. After all they don’t tend to “plan” unless its forced upon them. So what do they know, that we don’t ?
AvAnArts- yes-thats my point-why base a epidemic simulation on a flu that DIDN”T happen, instead of the flu years-1918 for example?
Oremus-Im with you on the PO factor. And I’m also VERY worried about the collapse. I know so many people that are just not going to be able to deal with this-multiplied across thhe nation-makes my heart sink.
Sorry I don’t have a link- I read this in the Jan 2006 ish of Wired pp111–115 Has an Einstein Robot on the cover.
OK. Let’s have the new numbers now……
You start JWB, because MY ppf is blinking red “Warning! Warning! Overload!”
Ready cash is coming out of bank NOW. Will be particularly careful about stashing bank statements and various ‘proofs’. Spent some of this evening organizing online vendor ‘lists’ for ease of ordering this weekend.
Planning hard thinking this weekend on some ‘unthinkables’
Phase 1 of the Finals has begun.
>shudder<
Wolf – at 22:12
Why now? What specifically pushed your button?
I actually added money to my emergency fund yesterday. This is my small bills at home cash.
Grace RN – at 22:22
Receptor binding domain info began trickling out - what, a week, maybe 2 ago? This, (to me, the admittedly unschooled) told me that a major hurdle in ease of transmission may have been breached.
Actually, to be honest, I first began at least pondering this when the first patient developed symptoms of ‘runny nose’ - must be a couple of months now.
The latest findings are confirmation of what I thought may be happening already, and what I’d already put in place as a ‘marker’.
Not waiting to get hit over the head with a stick; and if I’m wrong, no worse for wear. ;)
Ruth – at 22:47
Yeah, I think I’ll feel better. Tend not to keep much cash around as a general rule.
Grace RN – at 22:22 (again:)
Yeah. What he said:
NS1 – at 22:37
Please prepare.
Deceleration can occur, but these events cross a new high-water mark.
The more similar H5N1 is to seasonal influenza, especially the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD), the more likely recombination events are to happen.
More strings of identity allow for more landing zones or attractant areas around which new genetic information may be exchanged.
* ACGTACTGACTGGERRKK
* GGGTACTGACTGGERRKKKR
If you align the two simplified examples, you see that these sections of the two viral strains share 16 nucleotides of identity.
* xxGTACTGACTGGERRKKxx
Because they are so similar now, a landing zone or attractant area is in place for templating and bringing potentially the 2 preceeding and/or 2 trailing nucleotides, like this potential result in the progeny.
* ACGTACTGACTGGERRKKKR
The stage is now being set because a contiguous string from the Influenza B RBD 226:230 has been acquired in toto by several of the Egyptian Human H5N1 viral strains. The M230I as well as others up and downstream may create or set the groundwork for creation of a more potent and transmissible strain.
JWB – at 21:56
OK. Let’s have the new numbers now……
Increase to 7 with the new polymorphic changes.
I belive the chances are now >50 percent.
I won’t go highter unless some threasholds are breached.
H2H2H in healthcare workers Larger and sustained clusters Evidence of Tamiflu resistance in clusters A phone call from my “network” (pardon the pun Verizon)
There is still a chance it could reassort with a current flu strain and lose lethality into the 1968 range. I believe there is more of a chance tha it will not.
I’m not taking any chances, and have placed a couple more top-off orders and reviewed my checklists for SIP.
Confirmed that TOM DVM is prepping. Will completely review preps this weekend refresh and reset. PPF now a confirmed 7.
BG - I hear you.
I don’t like what I’m hearing - but I’m with you. That pushes my 8 to an 8.75.
Based on the events of the past few days, I am at 9.
Last week I had one those ‘I better order some more X” days.
60 various size respirators arrived Teusday. Was going to post on Preppers High but felt like creating an a new post: “Preppers P*ssed because I felt I needed to buy this stuff.”
PPF = a now numb 9.5
Bird Guano; “There is still a chance it could reassort with a current flu strain and lose lethality into the 1968 range”
My question (hope I’m wrong; have no degrees) isn’t the virus in so many regions, more than one clade, ect, that even if a less virulent seasonal reassortment occurred, somewhere else, another H5N1 could independantly go pandemic, perhaps mostly as is? It wouldn’t even mean waves from one strain - mightn’t we have more than one strain overlapping time or space or both? (there goes the “Effective Vax Deus ex Machina” as they run out of lab equipment, “pencils”, staff, ect, as time goes by)
I think (since I had no staff - nor friends, at this point -haha) I have procrastinated some of my own stuff, trying to find some way to get the community aware and preparing, and now, hope it is not too late to pack up and exit, stage left… (and it may be too late, for all I know).
crfullmoon – at 06:44
I asked Tom DVM some time ago a nearly identical question….
Is H5N1 going to be our new seasonal flu?
The short answer was probably yes + our regular flu that we have now.
The worst nightmare basically. Multiple waves with multiple strains.
Can someone post the CFR for an average normal flu season in the U.S. Thanks in advance. Didn’t want to start a new thread for one piece of info.
Prep like your hair is on fire. . . if you haven’t pulled it all out yet!
JWB, I imagine it will decrease like the 1918 did and become “seasonal”, but, I sort of see Dual (or trio?) Overhead Grim Reapers, in different enough garb they need different vaccines, that first year or two…
:-(
Homesteader, can’t Google it; got distracted by a Council on Foreign Relations piece…
The commonly accepted figure is about 36,000 annual US deaths from flu and flu associated diseases such as pneumonia with 5–20% infection rates. So, roughly 1 in 1000 as a 10% infection rate for normal flu would mean 30 million cases. However, the direct CFR as opposed to secondary is likely to be much lower. The issue is discussed in an article last year:
www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/331/7529/1412?ijkey=FXyhZx2lyNbaVLE&keytype=ref
Man, I can’t believe this. Bought the home in NH. Leaving here in 11 days. All this stuff coming down the pike since the 13th. I’m going in about 6 different directions here. I think my PPF is past 10 at this point. Got to get REAL busy now. So stressed out.
My PPF is now at a 9.5
After the latest Science info and Niman’s announcements over at CE.
The virus has apparently showed that it had obtained parts of common flu B that would enable H2H in the latest Egyptian victim. -among other changes that it has already obtained. If I understand the latest pronouncements, it appears that the “recipe” has been found and it has taken a life (or a few) with this combination of genes. Worse, is tha teven though the virus died with that person, it is still out there, in that form that can go H2H at any time now. The “news” was that we are no longer waiting for H5N1 to “figure out” how to become an H2H virus, it HAS FIGURED IT OUT. We now just wait for TSTHTF.
Nabarro announced in Indonesia something that seemed to indicate that he felt that H5N1 would affect humanity in the forthcoming year.
Folks, we are there at the starting line now. No more questions in my mind about “ifs”. It is a definitive “when” now and that “when” is very fast approaching.
I am very sad this morning. Many people I know will die soon. This may be the last happy Christmas the family all spends together…hopefully we can have that before all hell breaks loose. :(
sorry, that was me above
anon for this – at 08:39: This may be the last happy Christmas the family all spends together…hopefully we can have that before all hell breaks loose.
I found myself on Tues. night at a PTA meeting, just after finding that all this new information converged. They were discussing whether they should spend $500 or $700 on the annual school holiday party. It was all I could do to keep myself from standing up and shouting “spend the money, spend the d#mn money - it might be the last normal holiday party these kids have for a while!!!” I just sat there, of course, but it felt like that moment in the movie “Network” where that TV exec starts shouting out the window.
Now the problem is how to translate what is running through my head into language that can reach these people. That’s what I’ll be working on the next couple of weeks.
TIG and Pixie
Last night I told my wife that last year may have been the last ‘normal’ Christmas, and I praying I’m wrong.
I am now at a 9 after the news from the last 2 days … and the scary part is, instead of feeling pushed to finish my preps, I now just feel depressed and paralyzed. Is it just me?
I’ve lived a full life, no matter what happens to me, but I so much want more for my children. I’m just not sure anymore how much I can “protect” them. It’s a stressful time of year anyway, financially and emotionally, with the holidays coming up. And now we have this “doomsday” scenario fast approaching. Bless each of you, and God help us all.
i feel so awkward right now. i sit at work thinking that there are a million other things i need to be doing right now, rather than the inconsequential things on my plate today. i am debating making some big financial “missteps” to add to my preps rather than take care of the medical bills that are starting to come in after my partner’s surgery that she is still recovering from right now. (thank god we got that taken care of already)
i wonder whether i should go get that gun now. i have to wait the 3-day waiting period afterall.
my father-in-law is coming tonite. i just got this news tha traised my PPF to the roof. should I do nothing until he leaves on Thanksgiving? -or do I look like a complete kook in front of him and go into major prepping mode? will he, and my partner, “put up with” my behavior? will they be onboard with me, or try to talk me down from this? so far they have been tolerant, but that was when this all still seemed “hypothetical” and my prepping wasn’t “interferring” with anything. now, it becomes a financial choice. -with consequences, if I am wrong. but I know in my gut that i am not wrong.
i had more dreams over the last 2 nights. no matter how much i prep, it will run out and not be enough. i was making a “mash” of bugs and berries. i was also trying to make some sort of floury paste from mashing up acorns and flattening it out to dry like tortillas. it was bitter and i was trying to figure out how to take the bitterness out. i was hopign for a good citrus season (in months). i had set little traps all over the place for rats. ew ew ew ew. -but this was my accepted reality by now… liek 2 years “after” and there were very very few other people around. most houses were empty, but you didn’t go in them, since “empty” could include a few rotting or “freeze-dried” mummy-like corpses in them. i just preferred not to try to enter any homes. -except to try to empty water heaters. many folks just never thought about that, so they never tapped into their water heaters when they ran out of fresh water. -another reality in the day to day struggle to survive. it had become a routine. a very difficult one, but a few of us were alive.
i want to warn people here at work. folks i have never been too close too but do care about. never talked about this before. i feel liek sending a mass email to everyone i can. i would surely be let go as being a nut. i feel helpless. :(
geez, how miserable am I??!! SNAP OUT OF IT KID!!!!
-You ain’t dead, so stop acting liek you are, or are about to be!!!
Think about why you need to keep your head together, what you need to do, why you need to do it, why you need to make it through. Many will look to you for answers and help. You have a role to play. You have to help as many get to the other sid eof this as possible.
ok, thanks for putting up with my dribbling rant folks. i’m back.
TreasureIslandGal – at 09:04
Give your father-in-law a copy of Dr. Dave’s essay and ask for he’s opinion on it. Then take it from there. IMHO.
“Think about why you need to keep your head together, what you need to do, why you need to do it, why you need to make it through.”
I feel where you are at, TreasureIslandGal, but this is what we need to remember. We have to try to focus. I’m sure there are many people feeling overwhelmed about now.
Bird Guano – at 00:49
Please help explain these new findings to me- in small easy to understand words. My working knowledge of genetics is poor. What changed? when was it detected and what does it mean in regardto the abilty of H5N1 to mutate/reassort soon-ie within qw months?
TIG: Buy the gun. Prep your ass off and to hell with what others think. Focus on you and your partner right now and not trying to save the rest of the world. You and as many of us as possible need to make it to the other side to help heal the world. Odd, I mentioned my first pandemic dream on the other thread and just now remembered a second part to that dream. I did make it and became a “healer” in the aftermath. That’s when I woke up and wondered why I would ever become a healer as I am not a health care worker of any sort. But, there’s all kinds of healing that’s going to need to be done, on all levels of society. Interesting…
TIG
re: “Nabarro announced in Indonesia something that seemed to indicate that he felt that H5N1 would affect humanity in the forthcoming year.”
What did he say-can you post a link? It’s affecting humanity in Indonesia now, so why that particular statement?
Here is the link: http://www.liputan6.com/view/9,132661,1,0,1.html
I bet he commented after hearing the news about the acquisition of the influenza B strings.
The way I take it, now that H5N1 has acquired a big section of influenza B-like genes in an area that assists in its affinity for human upper lung cells, it is now even more likely to get additional pieces of influenza B to attach to replace nearby genes…to make it VERY likely to become H2H. It already can be right now, but could be even more likely to be.
Anybody remember which flu type B strain this year has been especially agressive so far in humans? Remember the stories from Japan a few weeks ago - H2N3 is the bad bug going around now. Hmm… in India and China we also heard that the H2N3 was proving to be the bad one they are facing an early season with. Closer to home… NC was having schools closed because of H2N3. Isn’t H2N3 a flu typ eB virus?
So, we are really scared that H5N1 will mix up with more Flu B virus type and really take off. Isn’t it ironic that that seems to be the predominant early season strain that is spreading around this year so far?
And isn’t it also ironic that the tests done earlier to “prove” that it was difficult for H5N1 to “mix” with a common flu and go pandemic was only focused on trying to mix H5N1 with other flu strains… not H3N2? I think they were trying to force it to mate with H1N1 variants. (I may veyr well be wrong on that) They tried a few varieties though.
I remember thinking at the time, “well, that is fine and good to try with THAT flu, but what about any of the others?” The news media made announcements that “it can’t mix” prematurely in my mind, since they only tried with a few strains, and not even all the top most common ones.
I just had a glimmer of hope that quickly got smashed. I was thinking that if it acquired human flu characteristics then maybe my flu shot would offer some protection. Then I realized that the flu shots are usually type “A” influenza, not “B”.
Although from a different era and for a different reason, this quote seems to ring true today:
“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing & baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.”
-Winston Churchill, 1936, warning his countrymen of the approaching danger and to prepare for it…
Well I am now back to a 5.
Actually JWB, I believe this year’s flu shot did include a strain of B influenza! maybe that can offer some hope! -Maybe that is why they were so strongly advising folks to get their flu shot this season!
GET IT!!! -it may be the only thing that can help you at all.
I strongly believe that tamiflu-resistant H5N1 is already coming out. And my impression is that this “newer strain” is focused more in the egypt/middle east area and is Quinghai rather than Fujian.
That would tend to lean towards at least a 2nd wave when Fujian can pick up the similar acquisitions that Quinghai just got.
So expect at least 2 waves folks.
TreasureIslandGal – at 09
Is there a link in English as to what nabarro said?
I emailed the nature article to 3 docs i have repsect for in thefield. I don’t understand the topic enough to comment.
Odd. I am currently more interested in the massive asteroid that fell in the Indian Ocean 4800 years ago that caused 600 foot high tsunamis and all the great floods of biblical and oral historical tradition. They even know the exact day in May it occured. It happened perhaps 1500 generations ago and yet it engages my imagination and curiosity almost as much as the day to day march of the H5N1 towards the future. Perhaps we could lapse into a hardscrabble existance that so many here envision. Perhaps I won’t survive that long, but I just don’t think everything will collapse. Now with a asteroid and a 600 foot tsunami, all bets are off. Still at a 1.5, it would take a lot for me to go any higher. I laugh at myself as I lug in sardines and canned milk at 75% off. Buy lamp holders for tea lights like japenese lighting so as not to burn down the house. I get decorative birch logs to disguise the homlier hardwoord. I prep without taking it all seriously. For me its more “Well, just in case.” I’m curious, but not afraid. Part of me believes it will never explode in my lifetime. I’m just as concerned about the mosquitos around here or the ticks. I take as much precaution about them as I do for the flu. I’m just soaking up the joys of day to day life in the present, and keeping a wary eye open.
I am not worried about a asteroid either, just concerned about global warming and an increasingly hotter whiter sun. Concern about the H5N1 ranks about 5th in my list. And I am concerned which is a tad less hard on the immune system than worry.
I am more concerned, since seeing the current information Dr. Niman presented. But there comes a time, in spite of how little or how much prepping is left to finish, that you just have to accept that what will be, will be. If this is indeed the beginning as some speculate, nothing we can do will stop the progression of this horrible virus. All any of us can do once this starts spreading is to do our best to stay healthy, and hope we are among the living and can help to pick up the pieces after it makes its way around the world.
I too wonder if this might be the last normal holiday season before a plague that will be included in the history books our great grandchildren learn from. I don’t think it will be the end of the world, but it sure stands a good chance of being the worst thing any in our generation will ever faced. I feel certain that most individuals with compromised immune systems will probably get this virus, and those who live in poor countries will face the most ravaging effects.
I grieve for them already, this is such a sad thing.
The latest recombo antics have bounced me from a 5 back to a 7 or 8. Already doing a partial SIP - going out as little as possible, not too difficult since I’m basically a hermit anyways.
Talk of cats and dogs as carriers/ incubators- no more outdoor garden time for kitties this winter. Ordering more cat food online tomorrow and going to pick up some small bills for cash prep.
PPF is about the same as it always is, running in the mid-range. I’m doing all I can to be ready. Beyond that, I’ll watch and wait.
Guys and Gals,
The reason I asked for seasonal flu CFR is the following taken from the Guilford County Schools, NC Influenza Pandemic Plan.
State Population: 8,541,263 gross attack rate: 20% Gross # cases: 1,708,252 (my number, does not appear in their plan) Estimated outpatient visits: 915,610 Estimated hospitalizations: 19,163 Estimated deaths statewide: 4,441
That makes a CFR of .0025977 (4,441 divided by 1,708,252) Correct me if any calculations are incorrect.
Somebody cooked the books big time, either at the state or federal level for a County School Board plan to end up with a CFR of .0025977
My thinking is the CFR for seasonal flu got plugged in at the end to avoid concern, get a plan in place without actually raising any fears or having the School Board give the plan more than a “lick and a promise”
Thoughts?
That makes a CFR of .0025977 (4,441 divided by 1,708,252) Correct me if any calculations are incorrect.
And with that CFR healthcare in emergency rooms and ICU vents in the United States are completely overwhelmed.
Even a 1% CFR pandemic, and we’re screwed.
Diana: I like you. Someone said you had a spirit similiar to someone I miss here named Lily who used to post. Great perspective!
It was recently pointed out to me that the world ends for thousands of people every day. It’s true. Death is a daily event: panflu, asteroids, terrorist events notwithstanding.
DC: I’m trying to get all I can get done before Thanksgiving because I think the travelling will spread the existing flu viruses that seem to be outside the scope of the annual vaccine. Then I plan to go out very little from Thanksgiving through New Years (I work from home so can do that).
My PPF? Regarding Panflu, maybe a five. Regarding a major terrorist event, maybe a five. Does that make my overall PPF a ten? Yikes!
and just when I went back down on my PPF and was predicting Feb and March.
I am now back to a 7 due to Egypt. Sorry to be blunt but-I think this is the start of it. Don’t stand in front of the fan.
Nova — Diana
Yes, there are many of us that go away each and every day. Each and every day is precious. I survived 47% 3rd degree burns 25 years ago- my best friend didn’t- she died in the fire. I wasn’t taken 25 years ago, it wasn’t my time.
I don’t think my ppf will ever hit a 10 even if the news carries talk of a pandemic circling the globe. A 7 or 8 yes, but its more of an alert, be aware phase rather than a scale of worry.
On the day I left the burn center it was winter and the trees were bare. A bird was singing its heart out on the tree above the hospital door. I hadn’t heard a bird sing for 3 months and felt like it was singing just for me.
I don’t ever go down without a fight, which in this case is being well prepped, but there are too many wonderous things each day, too many birds singing, to spend it worrying away what time I may have left on this earth.
For those who have concerns about the recent Nature paper and why it may or may not indicate increased risk, I wrote a commentary on the New Rumors thread.
If I may put in a plug for anon_22, it is a very thoughtful and surprisingly accessible commentary given the difficulty of the material and logic. Just below (still in the Rumor’s thread) Tink links to the Reveres who broadly agree that the Nature article is narrow and confirms our suspicions and breaks little new ground. On the other hand, Niman thinks it is a big deal. I think we will have to wait. My point is that the hadj will bring millions from all over close together and then send them back home, and that might not be good. (This is in no way a criticism of the hadj or those who go on it.) But my ppf will be mobile in January.
DC – at 18:26
“I don’t think my ppf will ever hit a 10 even if the news carries talk of a pandemic circling the globe. A 7 or 8 yes, but its more of an alert, be aware phase rather than a scale of worry.”
Thank you for finally defining for me what I have been trying to articulate in another thread. To be alert is not the same as to be worried or panicked.
“I don’t ever go down without a fight, which in this case is being well prepped, but there are too many wonderous things each day, too many birds singing, to spend it worrying away what time I may have left on this earth.”
DC, I have never experienced something myself such you did, but I have lost two brothers, one of whom I was very close to. His death left me forever changed much in the same way your experience left you changed. Even the worst day is a good day as far as I’m concerned. In a weird way, I am grateful that I was so young when I suffered the loss of that brother, because I feel like I learned a profound lesson that has allowed me to live a richer life from an earlier point than most people.
Homesteader - at 19:41: That makes a CFR of .0025977 (4,441 divided by 1,708,252)
That’s the same number that was used by a national assoc. of public health officials for a “moderate” pandemic. There was a thread going that included that information, and several comments on it.
It seems that no policy-making bodies will step out and deal with anything close to the CFR levels that H5N1 has currently, and has had continuously since it made the jump to humans.
I’ve decided to stay calm until the Egypt cases come back with results. If more than two are positive, then I will start on some of my last minute list, (that really I should’ve bought months ago.) If it’s only one or two, I wait. I have a very busy week and an even busier month next month (as I’m sure most of you do too.) I hope some of this stuff takes my mind off bird flu for even short periods of time. My daughter is going overseas next month and this who Egypt thing…I hope it’s not the start. I’m holding steady, but checking the boards very often.
PPF still at 7. Been there for at least 6 months.
The latest news has been reported here and elsewhere as a confirmation, and not really ‘new’ as such, so what’s the big deal? On another thread I was asked just what had me thinking along the lines of ramping up to Phase 1 of the Finals in my preps. Confimation.
PPF is steady. But, for me, there’s a world of difference between Speculation and Confirmation. Theory and Fact. Watches and Warnings. Belief and Proof.
The question has also been raised whether these facts change what I would do otherwise. No. But the priority and urgency of implementing certain aspects of my preparations has shifted.
Edna Mode - at 23:55: “DC, I have never experienced something myself such you did, but I have lost two brothers, one of whom I was very close to. His death left me forever changed much in the same way your experience left you changed. Even the worst day is a good day as far as I’m concerned. In a weird way, I am grateful that I was so young when I suffered the loss of that brother, because I feel like I learned a profound lesson that has allowed me to live a richer life from an earlier point than most people.”
Edna, I lost my Mother at 15 yrs. old, after suffering 2 years with cancer. I agree with you, the profound lesson we both learned so young in life has taught us to stop and smell the roses along the way. Also, there are no guarantees for tomorrow. I can not let negative behavior, petty arguing, and needless complaining take up my time and energy.
Edna Mode – at 23:55
DC, I have never experienced something myself such you did, but I have lost two brothers, one of whom I was very close to. His death left me forever changed much in the same way your experience left you changed. Even the worst day is a good day as far as I’m concerned. In a weird way, I am grateful that I was so young when I suffered the loss of that brother, because I feel like I learned a profound lesson that has allowed me to live a richer life from an earlier point than most people.
I lost my oldest daughter at 16, when my other 2 children were 14 and 9. Perhaps not too unusually, they now appear to approach life the way that you described. Maybe there is a particular kind of resilience that comes from having survived events that you had no control over, and deciding that you weren’t going to let that get to you. As teenagers, they both said how they often find their friends’ concerns odd and trivial.
DC – at 18:26,
I don’t ever go down without a fight, which in this case is being well prepped,
Yep, I hear you. For me right now is fighting for every bit of leverage I can get on policymaking. I don’t know if it will make a difference, maybe no one really cares what I think, but I sure ain’t going down without fighting. :-)
Commonground – at 09:01 anon_22 – at 09:10
I am sorry for both your losses.
Edna Mode – at 09:25
Second that.
And agree wholeheartedly that once exposed to the maelstrom one is never, ever, the same. For better or worse.
DC – at 18:26 “I don’t think my ppf will ever hit a 10 “
I guess I am still using the old original definition of PPF (Personal Pucker Factor) that started the thread as a 10 is when you think that the media will announce a quarantine within 24 hours. see for example: “ On a scale of 1–10, where do you feel you are now? Where were you last week? Last month? (1 is NO WORRIES AT ALL and 10 is “MSM is going to announce within 24 hours that we need to quarantine) This might help all of us get a sense for how our ‘neighbors’ are doing. “ - thank you: On the Fence
That is one problem I have with PPF. Some seem to use it as a personal stress indicator and some as an predictive indicator of how close we are to quarantine.
So I propose we have a PPF-S (personal stress) and a PPF-Q (personal quarantine within 24 hours). Others may not adopt this complex notion but for me:
PPF-S = 2, PPF-Q = 5.
THe personal stress levels will depend a lot on personal conditions. But there might be some predictive power in the educated guesses of the start of needing to quarantine oneself. To help clear it up even more so everyone is “singing from the same sheet”. I would peg
PPF-Q=10 within 24 hours
PPF-Q= 9 within the week
PPF-Q= 8 within 2 weeks
PPF-Q= 7 within a month
PPF-Q= 5 within 2 months
PPF-Q= 4 within the season
PPF-Q= 3 within the year
PPF-Q= 2 within the decade
PPF-Q= 1 it will never happen.
I am not sure about an objective scale for personal stress. I am never very stressed out so I will guess a PPF-S= 2.
DennisC – at 11:11
I like your PPF rating system. I would say that I’m right about here today:
PPF-S = 2 PPF-Q = 4
DennisC - I’m game…..
PPF-S = 7 (then add another 6 to that for my personal stress at the moment….)
PPF-Q = 4
When I get over to the new forum and try to figure it out, you can add an additional 5 to the PPF-S above. :-(
Ditto, Meserole in FL – at 11:27
DennisC – at 11:11
is PPF-Q= 6 within six weeks? I don’t see it in your list.
FrenchieGirl – at 13:29 yes you have the idea. example: 2.5 would be about 5 years.
PPF-S is at around 2–3. Not that stressed about it. I’m stressed about some aspects, but in most ways I’m fine.
PPF-Q wavers madly between 5 and 2.5. I just don’t know and I don’t really have any gut feelings on this because I don’t trust that I could “sense” it with any accuracy. Someone linked once an old thread (from another forum??) from the summer of 2005, where several people were ABSOLUTELY convinced the pandemic would start in the fall of 05. So I’m just a hopeless skeptic about “gut feelings” and stuff like that — particularly mine. :-)
I would say about a 7. I am still sending out ideas to TPTB — mentors for the eldery, disabled and children reliant on government programs. I keep hoping each email I sent something will click and plans will be made. Guess we will see in the future.
The mail system set up right now — could be an excellent delivery system. Sort of like a reverse 911 to those (above) that require help. Keeping my fingers crossed and hoping for the best.
Argyll.
anon_22 – at 09:10
Sorry to hear about your daughter anon_22.
Watching and waiting amid terrible “gut feelings”
Dennis C - I like your scale and dividing it into two PPF’s. Maybe when the thread is moved to a part ??? they could put this at the top of each one to help keep the idea going. PPF-S 5 PPF-Q 4.
To those of you who lost loved ones in this thread above, so sorry to hear of your losses.
Argyll.
S3Q4
gardner at 14:20 is right. The “gut” feelings here have 9.9 out of 10 times proven wrong.
There are a lot of posts on this thread that are driven by personal anxiety issues rather than the real facts/science/issues.
Whenever you read a thread where someone really “feels” the pandemic is about to happen - focus on the verb. Think, feel, sense, etc. advice is worth what you pay for. Be careful not to let someone else’s fears cloud your thinking.
I am a big prepper, but I am also a smart cookie. I read very carefully what is posted on all the threads here and discount ALL of the Nervous Nellies who so frequently post that they are sure the sky is falling.
Use the common sense you were given and question everything. After that, double-check all sources and then do it again before being swayed.
PPF-S 2, PPF-Q 4
Newsie – at 22:42
They say Hope is not a Plan.
That’s not entirely true.
One person’s Hope can be another person’s Marketing Plan.
The greatest public service in history is called Hope, as in Lottery Tickets. If you throw enough stuff on the wall… Even governments participate in it. It’s in the Plan, aka revenue budget.
In times of great fear, real, perceived or promoted, the Fortune Tellers, Witch Doctors and Alchemists pop up like a jack in the box. As the pandemic approaches, we will see more and more.
The ‘Nervous Nellies’ on some flu boards risk being exploited. Better come back here to do a sanity check.
PPF-S 3, PPF-Q 3
Possible multiple strains within a year, all ‘maturing’ at around the same time. This flu season is when they get lots of opportunities to ‘train’. Many false alarms, enough to wake up TPTB but not the public. Speculation only.
Commonground, anon_22, Edna - I am so saddened to hear of your losses, and so grateful for the help you give others here.
Newsie – at 22:42 gardner at 14:20 is right. The “gut” feelings here have 9.9 out of 10 times proven wrong.
I guess I would have to politely disagree with that assessment. I believe many of us had a “gut” feeling regarding the outbreaks in Turkey last winter, the Karo outbreaks, the small cluster in Iraq, the other multiple clusters in Indonesia just to name a few. The fact is that they were much more significant than what was portrayed to the public at the time by the countries involved and by WHO. We are now finding out now, 6–12 months after the fact, that our “gut” feelings were not that far off. The virus was changing during those times and not for the better and we were close to the beginning of a pandemic - we just got lucky that it quickly burned out. We were seeing things that didn’t seem to jive with what was being announced (“this is not a cluster”, “this is not h2h spreading of H5N1”, “these people were exposed by infected chickens and that is why they became ill”, etc).
I think our “gut” feelings will point us to situations to watch closely. It does not mean that a pandemic will begin in those areas and that everything is automatically related to H5N1, but it will highlight areas that may have larger numbers/clusters of unknown illness of birds, animals or humans that need to be watched and evaluated.
By watching these highlighted areas, we may also find some significant changes that are occurring with diseases that have been in those countries for years (the announcement of the recent changes in dengue come to mind). By monitoring these areas of strange/unknown outbreaks, we will have a better chance of evaluating an outbreak of H5N1 when it actually does occur.
Thanks to everyone for your kind words. I can’t speak for anyone else, as all bereavements are different. But the thought of millions of parents and siblings going through similar experiences are gut-wrenching to me still.
I’d like to think that I don’t carry it around like a crusade, and certainly I would probably have been doing what I’m doing now if that hadn’t happened. But it is what makes the difference when I feel discouraged or disillusioned and just want to go home and prep for SIP.
Whereas previously it would have been easy for me to say “well, it’s not my problem. I can’t save everyone. People’ve got to do what they got to do. And I’m busy, I’ve got a family to take care of.” Now, in the quiet early hours of the morning, it’s very hard to believe that that one extra child that what we do here might make a difference to is not worth my bother.
OTOH, my PPF does not go up as easily as others. That’s not to say I ignore risk, as Edna Mode said in another thread, you can be concerned and not be panicking. Similarly, its possible to be calm but not complacent.
Thanks everyone for your very heartwarming words. I really appreciate it. Edna Mode and Anon_22, I’m sorry for your loss. DC, I think the birds were singing just for you. :-) I’ve got to catch up with the news from yesterday. CE had a post of 4 people admitted to a hospital in Egypt, suspected of BF. I have to see if we have it here, if not, I’ll bring it on over…..
Commonground – at 05:41
CE had a post of 4 people admitted to a hospital in Egypt, suspected of BF. I have to see if we have it here, if not, I’ll bring it on over…..
Yes, it’s on the cluster in Egypt thread.
anon_22 - yes, I just discovered that. Can’t take a day off from the news lately…..so much to catch up on. Now, I’ll go search some newspapers/websites in Indonesia. Thanks!