I think the situation is spiriling out of control in indonesia, India, africa and china. i think the WHO, and UN know this. I think the WHO is rudderless with their attention dieverted towards continuity of leadership. I thin nabarro is running scared of being bitch slapped again for telling the truth so he is trying to walk a very tight rope. At some point he will have to come clean. If we see him suddenly dissapear i will shut down.
i believe H5N1 is now being transmitted in at least 50% of the cases H2H - inefficient and limited but gaining momentum and can break out at any time effecient and sustained. There are just too many huge slum populations in those areas to stop it.
Time is running out. God Given Time is not Borrowed time. It is a merciful thing because the endgame will be devistating.
In my efforts to build a clear easy to understand and communicate story to my town, I have dumbed it down to this: While the “experts” say the CFR must come down, from 2003–2006 i have seen it go up … way up… to 80 or so % with medical care in hospitals that have experience treating BF. I believe the virus has sustained a 100% kill rate while at the same time managed to find its way into some vector that is wandering around, unaffected… perhaps an HIV infected human who shows no symptoms or a rat or cat or duck or fly or mosquito.
the time to get prepared is running short. people are not listening.
We, on these boards, are the only hope we have - and i use the word “hope” specially for this… since i truely believe that there is no hope.
A pandemic of H5N1 is coming. It will be very very bad. What will make it worse is the collateral damage caused by inaction of TPTB, the media AND the members of these boards that see the writing on the wall and continue to DO NOTHING!
WE could be the heros and save humanity a terrible tragedy. I am as prepped as the houses around me and the houses around them and so on throughout this great nation of ours.
WE are the only ones who can be brave enough to make a difference - PLEASE do not be afraid of coming out… of telling what you know… of sharing your hard earned knowledge… of letting “them” know what you have done in preparation. If this is done right, you may survive. I do not care if you have costco in your basement. I do not care if you have an infantry of M16 toting soldiers to protect your home. You will not survive what is coming if your neighbors are not prepped.
IT IS TIME….. rise up and be heard… by every local newspaper and tv and radio station and town council. YOU ARE THE EXPERTS You know everything about the virus and a pandemics horrendous effect on humanity.
IT IS TIME TO ACT.
Are we to be known as the Paul Revere who gave birth to a great nation, or Noah who saved his own butt wahile all around him perished?
Calm down. It is entirely likely you are overestimating the imminence of a pandemic. Overheated rhetoric is not helpful. The prep job is hard enough as it is.
Goju-
There are none so blind as those who will not see, none so deaf as those who will not hear.
And none so righteous as those who ‘know’ better than everyone else. Check out the “yes or no” thread for a wider range of views. A little more humbleness in acknowledging what we don’t know is in order.
Noah did not save himself, God saved him as a reward for living right in a time of debauchary. Revere is considered a traitor by the losing side, and had little to do with building the new country. History is written to the perspective of the victor, it is not necessarily accurate. Take a deep breath, nobody will listen to you if you are hysterical. You do yourself and the rest of us a disservice even though we may share your obvious frustration.
LMWatBullRun…
Matthew Henry right?
I like..
It is not fit the public trusts should be in the hands of any till they are first proven fit for the business they are to be trusted with.
Might not be a direct quote but something close to that I think.
Goju: First of all, you might be right that a terrible pandemic is only weeks away. I do not think we understand the viruses well enough to say that, but do not preclude it. However, if you shout that message and some weeks pass with nothing visible, then your larger (and almost certainly correct) message gets lost - that significant preps at a community as well as personal level are needed to get us all through this together. Further, the “Cry Wolf” problem emerges, so even if someone else finally and accurately sends up the red flag, many will say or think, “Not again!” It is really hard translating impatience and even terror at the lack of movement into patient effort. You are a leader in helping your community and us all think about what can be done. Don’t destroy your effectiveness by shouting “NOW!!” when we just cannot know the timing that well.
NOW to prep - i have preps that willlast a long time. they will not go to waste - wait till it has started and you will not be able to get them… what do you wait for?
Inaction will cost this civilization dearly - not enough have seen the beast. It is time. Nabarro has said so. Big Biz has said so. It is time to prep not panic…..
Do not see that which i have not said.
Do not be afraid.
Noah preached for 120 years that a judgement was coming from God. Nobody listened until it started raining.
Conviction can be a good thing, but at the same time, conviction does not necessarily make one’s conviction correct. (Think Hitler, McCarthy and others) Obviously, because I spend so much time here I certainly feel that a future pandemic may be possible, although not guaranteed, but at the same time, I do know that nothing is certain at this time and I’m not betting my life’s savings on anything.
Many people throughout history have had great conviction, but it doesn’t necessarily make it true or correct. I consider myself to be in a wait and see mode, trying to get as much information about what is occurring, and trying my best to ascertain what the information actually means. Through the last couple of years, there have been many occasions, where it seemed things were set to “go” and it didn’t happen. I have been vigilant about supplying information to others, but in a way, I hope, that does not convey a finality to my convictions, but simply to a possibility. Preparedness simply allows me the means to feel confident in any future situation, so I can “think” with my head vs. my emotion about the future of myself and my family, should such a pandemic occur.
I think Goju has no idea when the pandemic will begin, and he’s told us he heard from Nabarro at the recent conference that Nabarro has no idea when it will begin. However, the recent messages, from WHO today to Nabarro and the conference last week was: Prepare Now. I think that’s all Goju is trying to say, to move people from words to action.
Interesting thing about that Revere analogy, though. Paul Revere did sound the alarm, and rode through the countryside to do so. But, the colonists had already prepped. They had been doing so for years. Revere’s issue was not to warn people to prepare as they already had. He was riding to warn the milita to turn out to protect what they had already stockpiled - their stores at Concord. The colonists had been preparing for years. When the alarm came, they were ready.
snip~
While the “experts” say the CFR must come down, from 2003–2006 i have seen it go up … way up… to 80 or so % with medical care in hospitals that have experience treating BF. I believe the virus has sustained a 100% kill rate while at the same time managed to find its way into some vector that is wandering around, unaffected… perhaps an HIV infected human who shows no symptoms or a rat or cat or duck or fly or mosquito
edit~
Leading experts in the field of science, business and government tell us that the “Fatality Rate” must come down from the levels we are seeing since H5N1 reemerged pre-pandemic in 2003. Examining the facts I am here to tell you that it has not gone down, it has in fact GONE UP! (pause) From a world wide average death rate in 2003 of 55%, it has risen to a fatality rate of 77% and climbing. We also know that H5N1 has sustained a kill rate of 100% in some species of birds. While it has probably not done that yet in humans, there is no reasonable assurance that it will not attain that level.
Comment: please seek monotreme’s input concerning wording on the vector hiv rat cat fly mosquito thing.. I’d advise staying away from anything that could be thought of as pure speculation. be sure you have some sound science to back up the question you will receive.
Goju – at 21:24 You’ve had a lot to say in the past several days. All of it good. What I’m seeing on this thread is the little old guy with the long gray beard, running along the sidewalk with a big placard that reads “The End is Near! The End is Near! Save Yourselves Now!!”
I’m very happy for you that you have a year’s worth of preps stashed away for yourself and your loved ones. I for one will not come looking for you…I’ll have my own problems to deal with at that time!
Panic is only going to scare people, and what it seems like here is you panicing. Doesn’t need to be that way…we all see what’s going on with the WHO and foreign gov’ts. Newbies coming aboard are going to see this and think we’re all a bunch of loons. Believe me when I say that if a pandemic starts, the Mods here, and on other vigilant boards, will let us all know. Trust us all on this…
there is a lot of problems with this 100% wording.. sure it can wipe out a flock of chickens and especially swans, but it’s again wild speculation to suggest that it will kill 100% of humans it infects, in fact the data does not support that
Goju,
I agree with your message, but the way you express yourself sounds a little shrill. I came out as a prepper in my local community over a year ago. I gave a talk at my institution on the subject that was surprisingly well-received.
I agree that we should do everything we can to alert our communities to the threat and to whatever we can to help them prepare. But… the way you deliver the message is very important.
All those caps in your post read as shouting. You may not intend that, but that’s how it comes across. And if you shout at people, they are not going to listen. Don’t loose your passion, but try to understand your audience before you try to convince them of something. Stick to the facts and deliver them in a quiet, determined voice. You may find that more convincing than shouting.
People are shouted at a LOT in this society.
Most tune it out. It becomes background noise. One more thing to ignore.
While I understand your frustration, we live in the age of modern communication practices. People expect to be communicated with in certain ways.
If you deviate from that norm, the message is lost.
Temper the message and you will reach more people.
Goju, We’ve all been where you are. You have been so good, but I fear that the coming meeting where you feel it is “make or break” for prepping in your community has you “over the edge” with anxiety. Just take a deeeeeep breath, and sloooooooowly exhale, let yourself hear the air come out. And let go. Read your first posting about talking to your community. You were passionate, but not anxious. Remember, these folks are your neighbors. They will hear you if you speak softly. H5N1 is the big stick you carry. You don’t have to hit them with it, they’ll see it from your passion. And remember - have you had a good meal today. Did you get enough sleep. Have you been outside for a walk with your kids in the fresh air? Do these things, and take another deeeep breath. And exhale. You’ll be ok. Remember, your kids always hear you when you whisper, but don’t hear a thing when you yell. The meeting will be the same. Go get ‘em, gently and with an iron fist.
Goju…I feel your pain and anxiety…my feelings are not far off your mark in the opening statement. It is comforting to know I am not alone. You are not alone either.
My friends and family view me in the same way others may see you at this moment of extreme passion. It’s only a matter of degree at this stage. We all, on fluwiki, are a “little out there” otherewise we wouldn’t be here with our collective vision and concern.
Today…I had a realization…I am going to have to make sure my neighbors are prepared, if I want to survive. I am considering an action plan of buying a 100 lbs of beans and rice for each adult, 50 lb beans and rice for children, 25 lb salt, 1 10# can of whole eggs, box of powdered milk, 10lb flour, 10lb sugar, 1/2 gallon oil, a can butter and a can cheese.
Tell them of my passionate feelings, just like yours Goju, encourage them to take action in a minmum fashion at the very least, declare my “self isolating program” during the crisis and form a network for protection.
You are right Goju, the time for action is now.
moeb @ 21:53
Your elegant words are the exact example of explaining a emotionally entangled issue in 20 words or less. A talent I admire and respect.
Dramatic maybe? who me?
please excuse the caps….. i do beg forgivness…
i was once told, dont listen to how i say something… listen to what i am saying.
how many here have actually attended a BF conference that was happening in your area? You could have offered so much. how many have contacted their town councils, town newspapers, radio stations?
I was one who did not. I do not have 1 year of supplies - i have 3 months maybe and know it is not enough.
I was going to close the door ans protect my stash and keep my family safe. that wont happen if we all do not prepare. …..we all prepare…..
think of the effect if each home had just 2 weeks of preps… and some have more. What would we avert?
How much time do we really need to do that? how mauch pressure can JIT take?
Even if the pandemic does not occur for a year, there is still not enough time for every home to obtain critical supplies. It takes a long time to prep - we all know that.
i am simply calling for that shift from writing words to speaking them. From inaction to action
That is the message i got from the Safe America Conference I got it from Dr. Nabarro, HESS Oil, Homeland Security, CDC, Motorola and a host of other major players that hold their money tighter than they hold their childrens hands when the cross the street.
They are spending money.
gosh I blush.. worth noting is I told my girlfriend of a nearly exact same plan as you have concerning your neighbors.. a bag of beans a bag of rice and a couple of bags of dog food… she seemed to think they’d come clean me out later?
Gogu, you’ve caused me to think we need a speech.. “The Speech” that fluwikians can learn and say in public meetings. Something grounded enough we know the answers to the questions the speech will cause. If you are willing to post your upcoming speech, I and I’m sure others would be willing to polish it for all to use. thanks
It’s an “elevator speech” of sorts that we need - something conscise, accurate, objective and compelling.
moeb – at 22:35
gosh I blush.. worth noting is I told my girlfriend of a nearly exact same plan as you have concerning your neighbors.. a bag of beans a bag of rice and a couple of bags of dog food… she seemed to think they’d come clean me out later?
Don’t blush.
It’s a common thing to want to do.
I’m starting to gather the same items and store them at the fire station for the neighbors.
That way it’s not ME who’s the center of attention on prepping.
I can direct people to help and still keep my personal preparations separate.
Good Evening Ladies and Gentleman. The oncoming of a pandemic is an event which is random in time. The only way to avoid mass culling of our society is to work together and realise that when H2H transmission is reached, as annonced by our government’s, we must stop social gathering’s and wear PPE for emergency outdoor activities, at once. We must stay in our homes and think about all that we touch ouside of them. We must wash our hand’s more than we ever have before. We must touch our faces less than we ever have before. We cannot rely on our personal protective equipment, and therefore we must at all cost’s, remain indoor’s unless we need medical attention or our country need’s us to work. To socialise, is Freedom. If we want to live, then when a pandemic strikes, we cannot afford to think we are free. “No one want’s to see you, in a pandemic.”
Any question, Ladies and Gentleman?!
Moeb @ 22:35
When I explain my self isolation program via protective gear or house, I will inform my neighbors once I delcare myself off limits then deadly force is an option, to always assume I am armed because I will be. Not a preference but an option. They may get my stuff, but they aren’t going to need as much as they did when they walked through the door.
Also I am by myself, my mom MAY come down, if that happens I may shoot myself instead! I have plenty of stuff. I’ve acted on my passionate feelings by SHOPPING!!! Instead of fancy clothes and food I buy Volcano collapsible stoves and Country Living mills to grind my red and white hard wheat…organic…for goodness sake! I going to have to cancel my trip to Argentina because I’ve spent too much money over the past three months. And still lack the composting toilet!
I am serious when I feel kinship with Goju…I am frankly over the top, I know it yet I can’t stop until it is finished. What was the name of the movie, where the people who saw the space ship had to make a mountain out of clay, stone, oh yes Richard Dryfes was in it. Until now, I had no idea of how that must feel.
I don’t feel a super public persona is benefical. I am forming an alliance with my neighbor (the one right next door) and revealing myself only to explore a security solution. Now I wish I had a TV and watched reality shows…I am sure I could use some coaching from survivor. Good Grief…that may be how we can predict the public’s response to a crisis! What’s on Survivor!!!
I STRONGLY agree that the collective people in the know should put together a 2 minutes “story” just like on the news stories for us to repeat…a script so to speak of responses. Just like the synopsis you created 21:53 of the virility of the virus. Perfect. String together 3 to 5 more points and you are ready to be political…just like the politicians stay on point.
Goju, I love you, man. You are stirring up the pot. The results will be interesting for you I am sure. In your passion and intensity, you are not alone.
Easy trigger… the key words are “you are all alone”, I mean like.. what’s that worth eh? You know the girlfriend pissed me off the other night and I thought fine..move home. that lasted all of ten seconds. Now unless this is all an exercise in how to comfortably burn out the last few days of our life (ie: we all die of this beast), you are going to need the tribe dude… in fact you are a member of that tribe until you screw it up and find yourself a threat instead of an asset… anyway this aloneness, it’s not going to cut it
But what about my speech?
(frantically waves hand) oh Mr. Blue.. do you mean we can’t go out in our yards? And if flu is random why should I worry about it?
And what’s with the 50% H2H?
feel free to verbally abuse me if I start sounding like a wuss.. for example men don’t blush they “turn a little red”
2nds the 50% H2H question
For me, I was responding to the passion and intensity of Goju’s first post and how it strikes a cord with me. Maybe in an over the top way…which is how this all got started. Maybe other people feel that strongly but haven’t made it known. In that sense Goju is not alone. None of us are alone, because of this unusual community that has been formed over this cyclical occurance in nature.
On the practical side I realized…today…I was going to have to prep my neighbors so I won’t be alone in the physical sense. We all are at different stages of development…just like children. My prospective changes each day. It’s kind a fun…if you let it.
Hmmmn. I think that would be O.K. But the more you venture out in public the more chance you have of spreading the flu you caught in your own backyard. The PPE you wear should keep the virus from spreading from your respiration into the crowds, however. So, you will only expose yourself- and not others. This is called “playing with fire”. You can see that each level of protection that an individual employs, contributes to the overall wellbeing of the society that individual lives in. “Let’s act as a team please and do it my way.”
I go along with the passion and intensity and the refreshing shock it all brought to the forum. I’d guess that it’s fueled by the personal encounter with Dr. Nabarro. I would think I or any fluwikian that’s up to speed with what’s going on would have a similar reaction.
I could write a hell and brimstone speech, technically correct but designed to arouse unpleasant images… is that what we want?
decaf, people! Get a plan, follow the plan, hope for the best, prepare for the worst. We will probably be the leaders in our communities, so that old adage about keeping your head while everyone else is losing theirs may hold very true. If we survive this thing, we will have plenty of time to break down later on.
Mr Blue (asking further question).. are you saying this virus floats in the air?
some one in the back of the room shouts a muffled question… “What about falling bird poop, should we be worried about that?”
Moeb 23:37
I agree. Since Goju “looked into Dr. Nabarro’s eyes” that boy has had a burr under his saddle!
Oh- the second question is good..so was the first…they are in fact related. Some backyards may contain flu airborne…most will not. Random in space and time I think you will find a pandemic. It is therefore a fairly negligible chance you will die. (Apt(word?!?) point!) What we owe is a little compassion for the ones that will die…because they will not be your friends/dad’s friend’s/mum’s friend’s or even friend’s of your favourite basketball player if we all decide to do something to stop it’s spread. The “one’s that will die” will be considerably less if we decide…that they will be considerably less. You have what most of society has(including me)- the “I” syndrome. Now that the paradigm has been explained…you can avoid that mode of thought. Excellent question.
>Sure: Fire and Brimstone…if we do not act…and that is what a Fire and Brimstone speech attempts to do..then I can say that the reality may be worse.
I don’t think you could predict what would happen as horrendously as what would really happen. Try. Because it will only help in preventing such-a -things actual occurence.
> Are you saying the virus doesn’t float? Because, we need fact’s. I have heard that house dust doesn’t settle very quickly.
> Bird Poop. Probably not. But why risk it. You would be letting the side down.(What are you going to do with the bird poop?)
I think we won’t NEED to worry about “bird poop” so much. If the virus mutates to H2H, it will be HUMANS that pass it on to humans, not some random bird flying overhead. To pick up the virus from a bird, based on what is happening now with the B2H transfer, I doubt seriously that we really need to worry as much about bird poop.
But then again, I guess I’m still in denial… :-(
Goju,
I think your op was inspired. I feel the same at least 10 times a day. You worded it so well. Thank you.
BB…good to know. It makes perfect sense now that you point it out.
What? That I’m in denial? LOL!!
I’ll be presenting info to 130 staff at work, in an objective way based on facts per WHO and other official sources. I’ll make them aware of prepping and Grattan Woodson’s work and then email them useful information. I’m not going over the top, as H2H may not happen any time soon. I’ll then have done my bit as I’ve also helped with policy for the other 400 in the corporation, with assistance from a couple of others. My neighbours better look after themselves as we don’t get on. The media has sounded the alarm a few times so if people can’t take it seriously, too bad for them. People I’ve tried to talk to socially take no notice of this issue, so I don’t try with them any more, same experience as many on this site.
Call of the Wild – at 00:43 I agree with you totally on your thoughts. I was involved with my local community of 30 thousand (scattered over 430 square miles of southwest desert), during Y2k, and although some plans were done at the town level, and I put on classes for the community for about a year (average number to classes about 20), I will not even attempt this time around to either contact the brain dead administration of this area, or put on classes. As far as any preps beyond some scattered folks I am aware of out here, the desert is SOL. Been there and done that,,,,,
It helps me to think in geologic time occasionally. A year, two years, ten years are all an eyeblink in the history of the world. H5N1 may go strongly H2H but it might not do so for several years. So, we can be right (“it’s coming”) and meaningfully wrong (“prepare NOW”) at the same time. Like a tsunami area, we need to have some advance plans in place because when it comes, it may come very, very quickly —
I can’t use Goju’s impassioned speech on my street. If two months went by with out a problem, I’d never be listened to again. Maybe that’s the key to the “elevator” speech. It needs to be customizable to the audience. I’m working hard on our school board. If the school lays out a well thought out plan that closes school early in event of a pandemic, that plan will definitely get the attention of our local population.
And all the lazy parents will think the school authorities will look after this problem
my goal is modest…
save the world….. and my butt
and yes - nabarros eyes….. those eyes and what he has seen…..
I fill in for the school bus transportation area of Nye County every now and then on either the handicap bus or the preschool bus, and yes parents send their children to school sick constantly. Most look at the school system as a full time sitter or their children and if they are not feeling well, they still send them. Just the way it is.
if the school is following the Costa plan you have got to say something to the board - it will guarentee the deaths of our kids
I sent a note to my son’s school yesterday morning askng why they have sent no info out regarding an influenza pan.I gave them a few site addresses and asked if they had any q’s.then said i had many for them.I’ve been waiting patiently for something to be sent home,alas ,nothing yet.If i dont hear from them in a few days ,i will have to ride down there.Goju,i want to save the world too but know i can’t.Keep an even keel on this and always keep getting yourself ready.The recent who announcements are indeed getting louder and more direct and im with ya.There needs to be more said to the general public, and i mean now!We on here already know this info,and can only do but so much.It seems the public isnt interested as much,mainly i think because the msm refuses to report the bad news on it.People i tell say’i havent seen it on the news.’Some are getting ready,some do the ostrich dance.Well as i write this i just saw it mentioned on the crawly,and it says ‘more money needed over next 2 yrs’.why in the hell do they act like we have 2 yrs to solve a problem thats clearly out of control over there?No mention of the hard facts,millions of pigs,vietnam airports,or the latest who warnings in the pacific.Only money,money,money.I feel ya man.I want to start a public cable show.havent seen that yet.
Maybe we should have talking points? 1. Pandemics appear every 30–40 years and one is due. 2. H5N1 is a likely candidate and has been spreading and is becoming efficient H2H. 3. It is also showing an astonishingly high CFR (“kill rate”) that does not seem to be going down. It does not HAVE to become less deadly as it learns to spread more easily. 4. Exact timing is impossible to predict but likely in a few years, and possible in a few months. 5. When a pandemic hits, social life (schools, most work, religious services, sporting events) will stop or be severely curtailed. Hospitals will be overwhelmed. Food and fuel shipments are likely to be disrupted. 6. It is important to stockpile food, water and meds for 1–3 months to ride out #4 and #5. 7. Worst case scenarios include failure of electricity and law and order. Dealing with this will require community planning and cooperation. 8. Time may be short and we have to get going now. (Yes Goju, I agree about prepping NOW!!)
treyfish @ 03:34 I would track down the schools nurse’s email address and email her directly or snail mail her the questions.. also cc the superintendant. In the note, I’d politely ask for a response to your questions by a certain date to give them time (a week to 10 days) to do some “conferencing” about how they should handle their information dissemination to the public about this topic.
If you don’t here back from them by that date.. I’d call the superintendants secretary and leave a message that you’re still waiting for a response as a gentle nudge. If you still don’t get a response, then I’d call again and this time let the message state that you will be contacting the board president tomorrow about the lack of communication with school personnel about student health issues.
As a classroom teacher for 15 years, (& not knowing the age of your child) there are a lot of places that this note would get lost, unintentinally or not.
Eduk8or – at 07:21
I second Eduk8tor’s advice. The only thing I would do differently is cut more to the chase. The subtle politics of e-mail in my experience are: address the e-mail directly to the school nurse and the superintendent, and cc (not blind) both the school principal (who has not answered your original inquiry) and the school board president. That cc says, “TPTB know we are having this discussion.” Including all at the outset serves to put the principal on notice that the situation needs to be taken seriously and starts the conversation at four important pivot points in the system (nurse, in-school admin, district level, board). All of these e-mail addresses should be on your school’s web site.
Forgot to say that I would open the e-mail with a gentle note to the effect, “Since I’m still waiting for a reply to my note dated XX/XX/XX, I’m following up by e-mail in case my note was lost in the shuffle.”
That way you document the fact that this issue has been raised and is not being addressed.
Sorry to post multiple times on this, but one more thought…
You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. Be assertive, but show empathy for the fact that school staff are overwhelming busy at the beginning of the school year getting everyone settled in. I’d also make it clear that you are willing to help them by volunteering time to copy handouts or helping them research info or whatever.
Not to duplicate and triplicate work, we are all trying in our own way to perfect the sppech, presentation and talking points. Some of the efforts are here.
Feel free to add so that everyone can benefit.
Thanks Dem, Hopefully your link will help some of the rest of us to get more proactive in our own circles…even me.
mj – at 22:26 good points.
I do think the public needs some brave fluwiki burrs under their saddles (-too comfortable riding a jack-ss into catastrophe otherwise?) (Pardon my metaphor.).
Get the public on their own feet and listening to the “reality-based” scientists,
instead of the people in public trust who have chosen to keep the public in the dark as long as possible;
since they started, they can’t fess up *now*; “Oh, the WHO and the US feds sent you memos, back in Oct 2005; changed our minds and think you should see them now, so you can change your priorities…
We were just going to hope it wouldn’t happen, or, plan for something that wouldn’t overwhelm the system, but, who are we kidding? -we know our plans will be overwhelmed in a fortnight of pandemic, so, let’s all take action and be more prepared at grass-roots level for real worst-case.”
(Ain’t gonna happen. -Sure, I’d rather be wrong about that - and - wrong about facing a deadly pandemic. But, I’ve seen too many scientists’ warnings get ignored for short-term money/power/complacency for a few.)
To the original question…..Are we to be known as the Paul Revere who gave birth to a great nation, or Noah who saved his own butt wahile all around him perished?
Noah preached 120 yrs that a great flood would come,but ,I believe till that point there was no rain ever in that place.So since they had no fear of that which had not happened in their personal history they ignored the warning.Once the flood started,Noah and his family who had taken the threat seriously were then over come by people who knew he built a boat and lets face it,They could have sunk the boat on him and his family.Noah could have put down a rope for those who wanted him to save them at the last minute,but to do so would have probably ensured the drowning of his families and all those innocent animals lives.Hard times call for hard decisions.I do choose to be a Noah.I spread the word,but I will not sacrifice my family for those who will not listen and then want “salvation” at the last minute.I have been to the local meetings,went on an email and calling spree to tptb just yesterday,spoke to my neighbors but in the end people have to choose to prepare for themselves or the consiquences could be deadly.
Dem from CT: I was trying to give points for an “elevator (or coffee break)talk” and not a half hour slide show. If we cannot boil this down to a very few basic points and communicate the real risk but also the uncertainty, we will fail to persuade others to begin to listen. We have all gotten into the subject so much we want to talk for an hour on its complexities, but we first have to get enough credibility that the hour talk (which is necessary - indeed much more) is possible. I wasn’t trying to supplant or compete with the links you provided but to get a path into them.
The cards on the Pandemic Awareness Week thread look great - if we can print them up, they’d be perfect for “elevator” moments.
I prefer messages springing out of sincerity rather than tactics. Embedded messages are those we hear from politicians, salesmen and risk communicators. They will tell you things in a way that they know will have maximum impact, whatever the truth. If any of this flu thing has any hold to reality, and if one believe so, just bring it on. If we face anything near what look like the strains in Asia, there is no way that calculated approach will succeed. I believe Goju has it right when he fear all preparations will be in vain if a sincere communication will not reach the neighbours.
There is no way to communicate in a rational way that make sense about the whole thing when the whole thing is about a collapse of everything. That is why you should be straight forward and sincere and just hope. If people are ridiculing you and this thing unleashes tomorrow, less sincerity and calculated behaviour wouldn’t make any difference. I prefer sincerity, and it is for me to validate if there is a reality behind statements. And when I can’t validate it, because there is no way to really know all variables, I have at least heard other peoples sincere opinions. The rest is politics and science, which I too often can’t differ.
runs screaming through the room (?), arms waving madly, yelling sincerely WE”RE ALL GONNA DIE!!! WE”RE ALL GONNA DIE!!! WE”RE ALL GONNA DIE!!! WE”RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!
(smiles..) is that what you want mous~?
Moeb - no, sincerity expressed without too much fear will do. But if there is a cause behind that behaviour, I will at least be alerted. Your analogy is ad hoc and ad hominem.
Hello, I visit and read on this forum a lot but I know goju and am aware of his passion and efforts from another forum as well. I have been working hard to raise awareness in my community as well and I think the message does not have to be so complete or emphatic. I think the tools of exposure and repitition will be the key to changing people’s minds on preparedness. I don’t think those of us who are in the know need to reinvent the wheel. I have had the Red Cross come to my house of worship once to do an informational program and I am putting together a second program right now and then will run a third. My first one was very well attended but I am determined to reach even more people with this second one and so on and so on. This way the location, speaker and printed materials(from the Red Cross) are free. I provide the snacks and the coffee. Even tho the presentation the Red Cross gives is extrememly mild for seasoned flubies it is enough to start the ball rolling for those who are in the dark on PI. It is my opinion (and hope) that with repeated exposure to the terminology of H5N1, Pandemic Influenza, Social distancing, JIT delivery systems, No vaccine available and you must prepare because you will be on your own!; the message will get thru. This is where I see the grassroots movement being born and eminating from. These are the communities within the communities and eventually, hopefully, these efforts will catch the attention of the local news media which will then make the jump to MSM. Anyway, that is what I am able to do with my limited energy and resources and I have to hope that it will be enough to make a difference. And if many others do the same I feel it will.
anonymous – at 10:56 I believe Goju has it right when he fear all preparations will be in vain if a sincere communication will not reach the neighbours.
I doubt very seriously you really mean that statement…..how on earth can “ALL prep” be in vain, if even just us are saved by our efforts — if our neighbors don’t/won’t listen, but we save ourselves & those with wisdom enough to follow us, then that is quite a feat in itself. If you really felt your statement were true, you’d never again spend a dime on preps because you know it’s impossible to reach everyone.
Please be more careful about your blanket statements, especially when you’re agreeing with someone who’s emotionally driven by a “mountaintop experience” like Goju is right now.
but I could not resist and I COULD with sincerity tell you that yes… most of us are likely to die of H5N1 or the collateral damage it will create. Looking around me I can honestly say, I haven’t a hope in hell of surviving it, especially where I live. But what do you do? We’re preprogrammed as a species to not give up easy… so I prep and talk and enjoy life as much as possible
11:18 If we live in a society that is built on JIT, if the worse strains hit, if we are on are own - then I am a bit pessimistic. That is why I try to make sure the people around me are prepped too. It will be difficult to be on our own.
Goju, I think many of us may agree with where you are coming from but not with your manner of getting it across. You have done good things here but your message above is over the top. Not the kind of message that I would want to give to newbies who will come to this site for PFAW. What you wrote was very didatic. You can’t hammer the information into people. People learn better when they are presented with facts and resources to check the facts in a non-emotional, non-threatening manner which encourages people to not cover their ears, and helps them to want to learn more.I hope you will count to 10, do deep breathing or whatever calms you down before you present your message in that way again. IMO, you will lose the credibility you have worked hard for on this site if your “yelling” continues.
Secondly, you are not the only one on this site that is working hard to get the message out. Just because we may not tout our own horns as often as you do does not mean that this is not happening. Please take time to read more of the threads and you will find that many ‘workers’ here are, in fact, busy doing this. Please try not to focus just on “Goju’s efforts” so much.
Goju – at 21:24 Big Biz has said so.
You know, what still gets me is that the companies that Goju listed as investing in this issue STILL don’t have anything on their websites — I just fall back on the ‘what they do, not what they say’ philosophy. It doesn’t cost them anything to update their websites to just mention prepping but none have done that. It’s one thing to send a representative to a meeting & have one person from a company state their own personal views, but that is NOT representative of the company as a whole. I wouldn’t dare bring up the name of 3M or the other companies to people I’m trying to convince because there IS NO LINK on any of their websites showing that the companies feel prepping for a pandemic is even remotely interesting, much less essential.
Goju, it’s been over a week since your experience at the meeting you went to. If these companies are so strong about backing the concept of prepping, please give us a link, to where they actually say they are supportive of individual prepping OR where they state that they’ve invested some financial interest into prepping their own company.
Thos ecompanies are interested in “their” survival… that means first getting “their” employees set. that is internal business… not for public exposure.
Those companies will not tel you and i to prep. That is “our” job.
I have not gone to the mountaintop… I have been reading and interacting with these flu sites for over 1 1/2 years. I am skating lightly on my emotions… but i am standing solidly on my conviction that i will not survive a bad pandemic by prepping my home. I think most on these sites who have or are prepping need to realize that your preps will be in vain if everyone else does not prep too.
All of the pandemic plans call for the end of civil liberties - forced quarentine. How the heck are people supossed to do that if they have no preps at home?
My message while perhaps harsh is in response to every post i read wherea greater action is not the goal. It is wonderful to wear ribbons, send out fliers and put up posters. That is all easy to do. What is hard is to stick your neck out and take a risk. Perhaps i am just made differently. I know that all it takes is one person to change the world. Imagine if we had an army of Flu warriors to carry the message and shout it out loud from every mountain, from sea to shining sea.
I am just a man, with a wife i love dearly and 3 children who are the most important things in the world to me. I care only for their safety. It is the single motivating force behind my efforts now. For a year i thought i could protect them by assuring clean water and food and heat and security. I no longer believe that is enough.
I am begging everyone reading this post to help me protect my kids… and in turn, i will help protect yours.
I’m-workin’-on-it – at 16:00 --- I have to agree with Goju at 16:25…most companies are only going to post prep articles internally for their employee’s eyes. It’s not their job to make sure that you or I are ready. My company has “some” prep articles available to us, most of it just mimicking what CDC and WHO are saying, but with a caveat at the end of each article that it’s all meant for internal use only and not to be shared outside. I’ve tried to talk to the people who are “in charge” of company preparedness, and the only response I’ve ever received has been “Go back and read the Intranet articles. They’ll tell you everything you need to know…”. I know they’re wrong, and they know they’re wrong, but TPTB here don’t want to stick their necks out and take a chance of saying anything that someone might question. A very stuffy, “old-boy” corporate environment.
One of the things that I have noticed, however, is that, under the guise of “saving money”, we’re going to be sending over 500 people home by the end of October to telecommute. Without saying anything to us, I believe the company is planning on continuing during a pandemic.
“Are we to be known as the Paul Revere who gave birth to a great nation, or Noah who saved his own butt wahile all around him perished?”
You got me thinking that Noah might be the way to go. We just need a whole bunch of Noahs throughout the world. When the pandemic flood comes, will it be possible for you to save someone’s life. 10 lifes? Are we meant to be the Noahs?
INFOMASS – at 10:31
There’s no elevator speech on the link I provided. It could use the addition. ;-) But the presentation points at the end are adaptable.
The elevator moment could be the red ribbon buttons and cards if one is so inclined. For 10 bucks you could make 10.
or 10 lives? Either way as long as you save them :)
Bronco Bill – at 16:48 I’m-workin’-on-it – at 16:00 --- I have to agree with Goju at 16:25…most companies are only going to post prep articles internally for their employee’s eyes.
I agree that it’s internal, too; and we will never know about it. Which is why I don’t understand why Goju seems obsessed with referring to companies — even specific companies — as if it’s some public proof of anything that we should rely on or tell others about. It’s not. He says they’re spending big bucks & that means they think it’s credible, but of course no one can prove that. IMHO I just don’t think it’s responsible to be saying things as facts that you can’t back up.
Goju Q: All of the pandemic plans call for the end of civil liberties - forced quarentine. How the heck are people supossed to do that if they have no preps at home?
Government cheese truck.
I think Goju has asked one very interesting question - how many people with the knowledge level they have here - have walked into their town offices and asked for a meeting with the mayor or public health official to have a chat about pandemic flu? It doesn’t matter whether anyone was received well or poorly (our egos can take it) - how many have done it?
I have.
I have. Twice. No results yet, though.
There are many of us who have tried to help our local government. However most people do not want to hear about bad things to come. You really need to be selective with who you inform and try to influence your community in a less directive manner. Now for those with forward thinking and caring leadership this would not be necessary.
Do to where I work I can not meet with MY local people. However, when I went back to my home state and met with the county managers in three different counties (I have know them for a long time) One was very aware and the county was working on the problem (she knows all about the wikie), the other two were aware but not motivated. Once I finished, they showed interest and they have spoken with me a couple of times and I know that they have visited this site for information. Have I made a difference, I do not know, but I do try.
Anon_451 - It’s the trying that counts. How will we know how to make what we say most effective if we don’t get out there and fine tune it from real life experience? Does anyone have any ideas as to who, so far, in public office or community leadership seems most receptive to pursuing the idea of pandemic planning? Mayors? Public health officials? Anybody used any creative inroads?
I have on several occasions.
It makes my heart fly to hear you have tried… keep on keepin on
[[http://www.marinaonline.com/fitnesscenter/Indiesongs_mp3s/13
2-BPM-TodayIBelieve.mp3 | Today’s The Day ]]
sorry - first time posting a url - how the heck do you do it?
anyway copy the url into the browser and go for it
Its my Friday Meeting song!
BB: But then again, I guess I’m still in denial… :-(
BB, 2 funny. Not only are you in Denial, but your a dang Bully! /;o)
Worked on the school board yesterday and I find they are no further than when I tried to work on them last March.The assistant super of the district has no idea at what point school will be closed or how our kids will get an education while schools are closed.She did however assure me that the super and the health dept surely had it all worked out.I will keep on trying but it feels like I am spinning my wheels.
Malachi – at 00:06 Yes know what you mean, I gave some basic information last year to the director of transportation for the school bus system,,,,,,,and yes the wheels are spinning and nothing is getting done. I think on the whole, one on one is doing so much more.
Goju is able to verbalize what many of us just do not want to believe - not very many of us will survive this as Noahs. I bet we all know this in our hearts but are just too scared to feel it.
Goju posts need to be reread a few times. His eloquence is from his heart/mind connection.
stilearning – at 01:33 You may be correct that many of us will not survive as Noahs,,,but those of us will darn will try,,,,,,,and that is a whole lot more than what 99% of the non preppers are doing…If the bird flu keeps up the high death rate, AND begins to go H2H,,,,with 50% death rate, actually civilization will be teetering on the edge, at least in the developed countries. The 3rd world countries at least will be doing better, most non city dwellers know how to farm, garden, raise food, etc but not the USA general person. Even if the death rate goes down to 5 to 10% I think the most developed countries will fall apart at the seams, and will be struggling to survive. Not a pretty picture I know, but one I think will happen when bird flu goes H2H in the general population.
Bronco Bill at 16:48
One of the things that I have noticed, however, is that, under the guise of “saving money”, we’re going to be sending over 500 people home by the end of October to telecommute. Without saying anything to us, I believe the company is planning on continuing during a pandemic.
Wow. I’m just thinking about what a priceless “benefit” being about to telecommute would be if and when a severe pandemic happened. I’m also wondering if I were employed in such a company, if I’d be willing to take a 5% pay cut NOW, just for the benefit of being able to telecomute!
Malachi at 00:06
I’m sorry you are having such frustration with your school district. My hunch is, they are still too far down the chain of command. I think what Pixie said was dead on — and what Goju is diong is dead on — the mayor, town council, people at that level are just starting to realizethat this will be their problem, that this is their baby so to speak. But as for the school principals and school boards and so on, some of them can be very informed, and start thinking about hand washing and all (it’s a start) but the greater issues of when to close schools is really not where they are at just yet; and probably won’t be their decision, anyhow; that decision will have to come from a higher level. (Doesn’t mean they can’t be thinking about it though.)
Good for you for approaching them TWICE though! You never know when something you have said will return to their minds, in a few weeks as they are reading a newspaper article and start thinking again about what you were saying.
Malachi @ 00:06--As I understand it, the planning in AL calls for using number of infections in the school children population as an indicator of how badly a county is being hit. I am hoping that I am misunderstanding, but it has sounded and read as if the schools will serve somewhat as our “canary in the coal mine.”
Sarcasim is a weapon that bullies like to use. Sometimes weapons back fire. <grin>
read the Costa School pandemic plan - it is a death sentence - then go screaming (in your own way of course) to everyone who has anything to do with the schools. when 10% of kids are sick, they first alert the health Dept - that would be… 44 dead kids in my town (10% CFR) and 5 kids dead (1% CFR) BEFORE they ALERT the health dept.
That is unacceptable. IMHO
Galt, I agree. I hope that parents would pull kids out of school before they reached canary status. This is one of the reasons we need to raise community awareness levels in their parents. Most states will have the final say in deciding when to close schools. Parents need to be given the tools to take action while their is still time for them to make their own plans.
Without awareness, no prepping will occur. I think it so great to hear that many of you are reaching out to help your community. I was at a lecture in my community last night. The speaker told folks to prep for 2 weeks and that the government would deliver food after that. Sounds like Pixie’s “government cheese trucks”. ( oh, and I was very vocal with my interjections). I passed out the ribbon cards and our website.
Goju does have a heartfelt message to share.
I agree its totally unacceptable. So unacceptable to me that I pulled my kids out of public school and am homeschooling. After so many days out, the school would no longer let my son make up work no matter how many doctors excuses he had- and I’m talking Vanderbuilt Medical Center oncologists. I fussed and complained and wrote letters and attended meetings-ha. I could not change their policies. In this case, my Revere tactics failed. So I became a Noah, and saved my kids by pulling them out of school, but Im also paving the way for others by forming a homeschool group. First it was myself and one other mom. A month later we’ve got four more families on board.
I think we need both Reveres and Noahs. We need loud noisy Reveres to keep hammering the message home, and we need Noahs who are prepping and handing out red ribbon cards and doing the quiet elevator speeches. Both are valuable.
I work in a school, if too many kids are out, they will close. If kids are sick, teachers get sick, and their kids get sick. The substitutes will also be sick, and so will their kids. Plus why would a sub want to come into the germ factory under those conditions. Without teachers, the schools would close. On another note, I notice more and more of the kids sneezing into their arms rather than their hands. They also have wet wipes in the classrooms and many teachers have the kids washing before lunch.
I appreciate the efforts of you all and the things you are doing in your community.I didn’t even go into my interactions with health dept.,city council,county administrators and church community.Each has been extremely disappointing to me and I will not rant about it.Except my Pastor has been great in his response to this by 1.not closing his eyes to how bad things could get.2.Having a service on preparedness and having me make a meal for the congregation with prep foods.3.Using his monthly column in local newspaper to repeat that service to the larger community.4. letting me stock info about home health care and water and food issues (taken from fluwikie,thanks all)and keeping the state issued emergency preparedness handbook (which says 3 days food and water,and that sick will get antivirals and focuses on vacines,also it just has a blip about panflu grrrr)available to all who would take it.When I asked the county emergency coordinator what I could do he said I should spread the word,but they give a mamby pamby it will be ok as their official word.He gave me the task of getting all the county churches contact info and believe me it was quite a job for me to do it.I even went beyond what he had asked me and dug for where these churches could help(such as my and a few other churches run pantries,one paster has a search and rescue dog,some say they would house victims during an emergency)When I presented it to him he said oh hehehehe, sorry but I got the info from red cross two weeks ago.I spent hours doing this thing he asked me to do and I feel like he just had me keeping out of his hair.I am just a hippie ,god fearing,country living gal who seems to have listened better than most people.I am open minded to learn and I question authority.And TomDVM,I was twice on the first place state dairy judging team of Michigan in my youth.God Bless the farmers.Noah is my hero.I have decided the best thing I can do at this point is to can every bit of produce I can get my hands on which yesterrday was 8 more bushels of pears.Now if only I can get some more jars for free I will know people in my neighborhood will have some pears to eat with their government cheese.
Keep talking to people who work for the school systems because 1) there is a lot of information to assimilate 2) people learn through repetition and 3) even though they may not seem to react now, they may remember your message when it comes time to make decisions in the face of a pandemic.
Most school systems consult with county epidemiologists through health departments when they deal with health issues, eg. an infectious disease outbreak. IMHO, that is a key person to reach, since that is the person the school superintendent will ultimately turn to for official information when TSHTF.
Pulling our own children out of school will send an important message to other parents, as well. Once again, I do not think that school personnel will report to work. Those of us working with kids every day know, on a personal basis, how disease spreads with kids. A river of hand sanitizer will not be enough to save us and our precious children.
Ruth @ 8:58- I agree with you. Stay well!
Prepperbabe shrieks “Don’t touch meeee!” as an adorable kindergartener tries to get a hug.
I definately will continue but as I said,I am not an influential person really.I will surely not wait to pull my own kids and if they were younger I would have done homeschool this year.my 2 preteens already think I am a nutjob(mom,why is it lately you only can and don’t cook.be quiet and eat your pb and j) and want to get out of the house as much as possible now so it will be tough when tshtf.It will be easier with my 8 yr old twins.
Forgot to add….I will get my kids out quick,but I actually love the dickens out of all those little booger pickers.I have been a room mother at school for several years and Sunday school teacher at my church and I live in a small community so I know and love them all.That adds many degrees of frustration with tptb.
NoFluingAround @ 23:45
Please look at your post. LOL Dang Bully would be DB. BB stands for Big Bully.
It’s o.k. my granddaughter has the same problem with d and b. LOL
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