Continued from here
Gary Near Death Valley – at 18:38
Having been in the fire service my whole career and being a fire investigator for years, I know that so many fires begin accidently, but usually with not thinking by the person starting them. One reason I have long hoses at each corner of the house, as well as the normal compliment of smoke detectors, and water fire extinguishers scattered around and about. And people one of the most common causes of fires is COOKING. Heck I even did that one time. The closest fire station to where I am at is around 7 miles, so basically even if they did respond even now,,,,,,they would not save anything. Prudence on all our part concerning fire safety should be at the top of the list. Oh also, have my preps put in 3 different locations, in the larder out in the garage, some in the house, and some in the pump house, so if something like a fire did happen,,at least I would have 2/3 left.
I think spreading preps out is very smart, and not just in case of fire. I’m going to squirrel away food in many different inconspicuous places, both indoors and out. The kitchen will appear to have only a few days’ worth of food left, and no food will be immediately visible elsewhere.
I’m concerned about how many people will be facing this mostly alone, though I suppose there is both safety and danger in numbers. I would think that the ideal scenario for long-term survival might be small groups of people, differently skilled, working cooperatively, though with a measure of social distancing. The problem is that not enough people are likely to “get it” in time, at least where I live, to afford the opportunity for organizing or preparing effectively. Perhaps survivors of the first wave will figure out how to better prepare for a second wave. I’ve been thinking about how one re-establishes community in the wake of the fear, distrust, and chaos that a pandemic will bring.
Get what? What is it that you think has to be organised. I’m just hoping that the water doesn’t go out. If the power went off for two month’s then I think that would be O.K. as long as the water stayed. Let’s focus…I do want to know what you are most concerned about!
For a large part of the country most people are on well water, when the power goes out so follows their water. The power going out for two months is NOT ok with them. (me)
oil.
when it stops, and the oil companies fear this will happen on the regional and local levels, deliveries of everything stops. Then you have big trouble. everywhere. food, water treatment, medicines, power.
Fire is an increasing risk when people use candles during blackouts. Many more fires occured in the old days before electricity and with modern people less familiar with the hazard, it can definetly happen. I’ve had two accidents happen with candles, one with a cat and one with a child. Some things are beyond training, when dealing with stupisd creatures. My son pulled a long stream of toilet paper off and waved the 4 ft tail over a candle. When it burst into flames, did he think to drop it into the toilet? No, he dropped it onto the rug. Then he did throw the burning rug into the bathtub, but he never yelled out anything. Maybe he was hoping the rug wouldn’t look too bad. It was destroyed. NJ Preppie? It will be better to not depend on candles for a power failure.
I agree about the danger candles pose. They don’t last for ever, either. I’m depending on one crank flashlight per person and a couple of solar lanterns.
Have LED lanterns, crank lights etc., but also have tea candles and Aladdin lamp for backup, but I agree with the dangers of any open flame. Those who use these things should be very aware of the dangers and also keep fire extinguishers close at hand. The Aladdin manual gives some good advice. If you are using your lamp and have to leave the room, extinguish it. And I would follow that advice with any open flame.
Heat backup is something I worry about living in New England. A generator is out as far as I am concerned for many reasons, have an old but excellent wood stove that I used many years ago to heat my house and still works well, but wood storage is limited to what I can keep in my garage, as storage on my property would be visible and probably vulnerable to theft. Wood storage will limit me to a few weeks of heat. In fact, I bought the oil lamp for not only light but heat, as it puts out a great amount, 2800 btus according to the manual, could heat a small room with proper ventilation, at least while awake. Have to hope that power will be one of the priorities during a Pandemic. Think is was Goju who talked to some folks from power companies and they seem to get it and are preparing for it. Of course we know that the just in time system and the many links between mining the coal, getting the oil, shipping same and so on gives many places that things could break down, as would the attack rate/CFR at these generating stations and in the remaining nuclear plants. Much of what I worry about then is out of my hands, there is only so much that I can do to prepare for these things..
Power out for two months in !!!THIS!!! country will be tantamount to TEOWAWKI.
I don’t know why, but the little gas thingy in the other apartment (duplex) always works during a power outage. Have heard the concerns about natural gas, and plan to use old mattresses to make a ‘warm space” if necessary. I live in a cold climate, but in a small space, with a few warm bodies and a candle I expect to keep warm enough.
the oil cos know the risks of oil delivery failure - but they can be responsible only as far as the regional level. Once it goes out of the big storage areas, it is out of their hands and into the hands of private business. Thats where they say the problems are.
If everyone prints out and gets some pandemic preparedness material to their local oil supplier…well, we tried, right? Maybe some of them would be getting multiple mailings, and start to look into it themselves and get preparing.
Where oil supply disruptions are concerned, I worry about food production. The world has 57 days’ supply of grain. We can’t afford a year when everything falls apart.
I’m with you InKy. Something that many may not understand, is that yield advancements over the past forty years have been largely due to the development of chemical fertilizers and the production of Nitrogen fertilizers is tied to and a byproduct of the oil industry and the refining of gasoline.
Interruptions in oil may affect a lot more consequences then we might think.
I think keeping North Americans from starving is the key to this pandemic.
What I meant to say was the hungry people do funny things. We can get around a lot of things but we must have food for our children and antibiotics etc. to treat them for H5N1
My husband works in the petrochemical industry. He, and the coporation he works for, just did that Dr. Michael Osthelm internet conference. It is an international coporation. IMHO, the oil industry is taking this more seriously than the medical community. But, maybe I don’t know what they are really doing (doesn’t look “comforting” from what I am “seeing”.) Just want to inject some “hope” on the oil issue. And… hope & pray they have time to get their plans together and operatable. One issue they specifically addressed was ships carrying crude, etc. How to safely handle that. And, cross training. Lots of cross training going on… from what I understand.
water is still a major concern for me. If I have electricity, I have water. And… I can use my washing machine! sheesh… laundry has become an achilles heel!
We just went through a bout with a cold. My grandson and I couldn’t shake it. I was on amoxil… didn’t work… then tri-pac. (Told me it took 10 days for tri-pak to “work.”) (Had it 2 weeks before put on anti-biotics. Had developed infected mucous.) Both my grandson & I were put on prescription cough syrups… only thing that “really” works. This really concerns me. This was a “measley” cold… and we were coughing our fool-heads off. Nothing I did helped the 2 of us… well, helped in the sense it gave a “little” relief. But the coughing just got so bad we had to have medical attention. It worries me if we don’t have medical services available during a pandemic.
My achilles heel is which mask to wear when I go outside if a pandemic hits. If the supply of drugs is too small…then we need some form of protection…but what? Goggles have been mentioned aswell. I’m worried about the mask situation!
It is dodgy about the mask situation. So don’t rely on them. Try and SIP and not work while a pandemic is on. If you have to work…then be superprecautious, as the masks have lots of problems in regards to the sealing of them. That’s what I understand, so far.
EnoughAlready at 1:50: I think the one thing a lot of people are forgetting in regards to their perceived need for antibiotics is that by SIP you are not only avoiding panflu, but you are also avoiding bacterial infections and viral infections that can lead to secondary bacterial infections. Only when you break SIP will you possibly need those antibiotics and Tamiflu, etc.
That fact is another reason to SIP for a little while longer until the supply systems for such drugs get going again. There are some very nasty viruses and bacteria out there, as you related. They are evolving too. And medical science does not even know the half of it. They can’t keep up with it.
And they don’t try to keep up with the ones that aren’t killing people right and left.
Medical Maven – at 10:45
I don’t plan to leave home for anything if I can help it--- & I can’t think of one single thing that would make me leave home in the middle of a pandemic (& I have explored every possible situation, including delving in some possibilities & solutions on threads here.) However, I worry about some family members who think they are going to or can or need to work through this thing. My husband, for instance, thinks he has to because of his job… and his job is vital to all of us. Fortunately, the last few days his company has been seriously considering what to do in a pandemic… and they are getting seriously concerned. Two of my children work in hospitals. They will have to work, and the hospitals are not the least bit concerned about a pandemic. (Or if they are, the higher ups aren’t telling them.) I’ve told these “gotta work” people that if they choose to work… they stay in town at my daughters house and don’t come out to my house until the all-clear siren sounds. still, that’s where my concern comes in… & them leaving their kids in school until they decide to shut them down. getting my drift? These people all help in prepping… but don’t seem to get it won’t be anywhere near business as usual. I haven’t worked in the public for a year now. Any work I do now is consulting I can do from the house. Their jobs (petrochemical industry and/or HCW’s) don’t lend themselves to working from the house. so… I’ll hole-up with the grandkids (who attend public schools) out here. what a mess.
An overwhelming sense of hopelessness when faced with the prospect of inadequate border closures. The way we travel these day’s is akin to one big public gathering…the exact number one reason leading to huge death toll’s when pandemics strike. WHAT can we do about it(as taxpayer’s!)? (Or is it toooooooooooo overwhelming?)
Unfortunately, although we are ready to SIP for about one full year, our greatest vulnerability is that one of us will bring the flu into the home before we realize it. Here is the problem: my daughter is in high school, my son is in college, my wife teaches middle school, and I travel by air almost every week of the year. That translates into an awful lot of exposure risk, so when the pandemic is announced, the sooner we isolate ourselves, the better off we will be. I imagine that we will spend the first week wearing respirators indoors, as we practice social distancing in the home.
I would only be concerned about yourself bringing it in…because those inside your country’s border’s should not be in danger of catching it, statistically speaking. It would be major new’s by then…and you would start the SIP at that point. If that’s all you are concerned about, then I don’t think you have to worry too much.
You’ve prepared well…and now you don’t have too worry about it. However, if someone break’s a leg and has to get to a hospital!!?!
Pandemic flu will not be contained within borders. It will cross borders before we know there’s actually a pandemic beginning.
With regard to SIP, I’m most concerned about teenagers sneaking out to see friends - or my teens’ friends showing up at the door hungry.
Ideally, I’d scarf my kids up when TSHTF and move them to another town where they don’t know anybody at all. That’s not going to happen, of course, so I’ll have one more thing to worry about.
Blue, I must admit that I am much more concerned about my own exposure while traveling out of town than I am with my family’s exposure back home. I figure that the most likely place to pick up something nasty will be on an airplane, so I quickly slap on a disposable respirator whenever someone sneeezes. (Yes, I tend to spend entire flights behind a mask.) I also decided to stop eating at restaurants. Instead, I either take my food with me, as I do for travel to Mexico, or I stop at a grocery store. I keep looking for chinks in the armor. Too bad I have to sleep in hotels. I imagine there are risks there, too, that I have not yet considered.
My first Achilles Heel is water. My well digging has been delayed till next January. There’s a little stream not far, but I’d have to cross the road and a housing building parking lot to get at it. And the stream makes the border between the two countries, it might be patrolled more often, or access might be very restricted.
My second Achilles Heel are my house co-lodgers, who may want to go out shopping for any missing item or to go to work. The theory of shutting the house down, no-one in, no-one out, is well understood, but knowing them, I am not sure they are capable of applying it.
Dr. Dave- Atleast you’re observant. I think as long as the media are observant enough…then you should make it home from your business trip before anyone’s exposed. (?!?) But what am I saying! We need border’s closed as soon as it goes H2H. Dr. Dave- What do you think will happen if you are overseas on a business trip and it is announced that bird flu has gained the ability to spread H2H? Will you be allowed back into your own country?
Blue,
Thanks for your concern but apart from occasional brief stops in Mexico or Puerto Rico most of my travel is domestic. Since I check in with Flu Wikie regularly, I imagine that I will be reacting to the thunder long before the rain starts to fall, so to speak. I could get back home several days before North American flight restrictions were put into place.
Frenchie-Girl:
1)-You can stock bottled water. 2)-Co-lodger’s would be problematic. They are not little kid’s under your control. The best thing would be to talk to them. You share room’s such as the Kitchen…not to mention entries/halls. You may have to move in with like-minded people. The sooner you find out their plans the sooner you can deal with the variable.
Dr. Dave - carry disinfectant wipes and a clean pillowcase?
FrenchieGirl - We have a creek behind our house. One just has to navigate through snaky brush and poison ivy, scramble down a bluff, and cross a railroad track to get to it. I’m stockpiling water and hoping to collect water every time it rains to minimize the number of trips I have to make there and back again at the crack of dawn. Do you have any way to collect water when it rains?
InKy, it’s funny you should mention disinfectant wipes because I’m becoming more and more aware of all the surfaces that other people touch. (Does Adrian Monk come to mind?) Jst sit down in a public place or take note in a restaurant and you will be astonished.
…hand to restroom door handle, followed by hand to mouth to cover sneeze, followed by hand to serving utensil at salad bar…
My latest routine has me wearing cheap jersey gloves for almost anything I do in public. I buy them by the dozen and wear them like socks. One use and they go in the wash.
Oh man….the one thing I worry about is the fact that I have a family of seven felines. Two of them are indoor only. The five boys, all former beat up strays who I have rehabed, neutered and given a home to are indoor/outdoor. Three of them who love the cool nights of the winter on the bed with us. The two others come and go but mostly stay in the outside shelters we have built. The thought of trying to keep all these males in a 1100 sf house for months on end? Yoinks.
We have 4 acres of wooded property filled with wildlife.
While I can prep with the best of them and still maintain a normal life filled with hope for the future. The feline equation is most worrisome.
Thanks for your suggestions. Am waiting for the engineer on Tuesday to determine what my next course of action is with respect to water. As for my co-lodgers, I have already talked to them; I guess one way would be to have all of us independent from each other, as we don’t share conveniences, only the entrance into the house. However, my house is made with ancient floorboards across beams, from cellar to roof, and therefore is not tight as if constructed on concrete. So splitting quarters means a lot of plastic sheeting and tape… which I am probably going to get soon. And it would mean building an outside staircase all the way from the groundfloor to the loft… and I am not sure I can do this without planning permission, not to mention the cost and practical difficulty. I’ll see; will give myself 2–3 weeks to thing about it. If I can provide revenue and food, and water, to all of us, then there would be less of a problem with them going out for work or shopping. Thanks for your concern.
Silly of me but i just thought of this Since we don’t cull humans can we concude that H5N1 will spred faster in humans the birds? I hope I will get comments on this.
FrenchieGirl - I’ll be interested in hearing what you come up with regarding water. Your ideas for managing separate lives in one house are very resourceful.
econ101 - That may depend on whether humans are smarter than birds and less likely to flock together ;→.
Blue – at 07:53 I would only be concerned about yourself bringing it in…because those inside your country’s border’s should not be in danger of catching it, statistically speaking.
Blue – at 07:55 You’ve prepared well…and now you don’t have too worry about it.
Blue – at 08:35 We need border’s closed as soon as it goes H2H.
Blue, I hope you don’t think I’m busting on you, because that’s not my intention, but I have to say I don’t agree with your notion that Dr. Dave doesn’t have anything to worry about. You seem to make these kind of offhand statements that make me wonder if you have inside info that the rest of us don’t.
My family is about as well prepped as Dr. Dave’s. We also have similar risk factors to his family, particularly with my husband working in the ER of a huge hospital, two kids in grade school, and one in college a few states away. If I was feeling at all assured by my prep efforts, reading the back half of Barry’s “The Great Influenza” (which I recently finished) has undone that sense of security to the point that I realize my achilles heel is I’ve avoided learning about how to care for my dead. It’s a place I just haven’t been able to bring myself. Maybe because my preps are “done,” I can allow myself to consider this final frontier. Or maybe it is reading this tonight from Barry’s book (page 223):
“There were soon no caskets left to steal. Louise Apuchase remembered most vividly the lack of coffins: “A neighbor boy about seven or eight died and they used to just pick you up and wrap you up in a sheet and put you in a patrol wagon. So the mother and father screaming, ‘Let me get a macaroni box’ [for a coffin]—macaroni, any kind of pasta, used to come in this box, about 20 pounds of macaroni fit in it—’please please let me put him in the macaroni box, don’t take him away like that…’ “
At this moment (and I may feel better in the morning, but I doubt it) I feel like even the best prepped among us will have only little better than a fighting chance to beat pandemic and the social disorder it will bring. I do think some of us here will be OK if we maintain our vigilance. But no one, not a single one of us, will ever have nothing to worry about until the pandemic has come and gone IMHO. And there is no way that we will be breaking SIP come hell or high water.
Sorry to be such a drag.
And as for borders closing as soon as it goes H2H, again, I’m stymied. I think H2H will have such a head start out of the gate before anyone, official or otherwise, even has a clue that it’s half way around the track.
My Achilles Heel will be taking care of my 74 yr old mother if she gets the BF. She lives in the same complex as I do. If it weren’t for taking care of her; I would not break my SIP for ANYTHING.
Wonder how safe it would be to walk over to her apt in the wee hours, when no one else is about ? ( Even if she wasn’t sick ?? )
Edna Mode,
I can relate with your Achilles heel. I worry about it every day and I often have bad dreams about it. Although my wife and I are pretty well prepared to live in isolation for an extended period of time, we are not prepared emotionally for illness or death. Our biggest fear is not about ourselves, but about our children. It is the worst feeling in the world to discuss how we should care for them if they get they flu. We have read about the “cytokine storm”, but we do not talk about it much. It is an absolute horror, and that is precisely why we are prepping so vigorously. Yes, we are learning about diets and medicines, but we dread having to use this knowledge in our own home.
Get them home, keep them home, and wait it out.
Dr Dave – at 05:00 Get them home, keep them home, and wait it out.
Yes. The only thing you may want to consider (and it probably isn’t going to be an effective use of cash, but we felt we needed to do it for the last ditch effort scenario) is to take CPR training that includes how to use ambu bags for resuscitation/ventilation. Manual ambu bags are killer to use for more than a couple of minutes at a time. However, my husband and I would not have been able to live with ourselves if one of our children gets sick and we didn’t have the skill and equipment. We know it is arduous to “bag” someone longer-term (if not downright impossible), but we are willing to try it if need be. The ambu bags are relatively inexpensive at about $25 per. We got one for each family member.
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