I am not trying to wish it here. Please don’t flame me. :-)
Bird Flu has been spreading through many countries, mostly developing countries in Asia and in the Middle East, but also developed countries in Europe. Why hasn’t it happened in United States and Canada?
This has become even harder to understand when Monotreme has explicitly stated that China intentionally used bird flu to hurt the rest of the world. Why would China be so generous and not attack the U.S. and Canada? Is there a ‘secret war’ going on? Would it be because the CDC has the most sophisticated labs and the best scientists in the world and therefore has already developed a ‘counter-action’? I find these to be unreasonable explanations.
Then there was another theory from Dr. Niman who insisted that Canadians authorities were hiding the truth, that there was indeed an outbreak in the Canadian Province of Prince Edward Island, and that his Recombinomics theory already predicted the event. I said at the time that it’s possible, but if it were true, there would be a second event shortly and Canadian authorities cannot possibly hide all the HPAI outbreaks. It’s been several months since and I haven’t seen any news of more outbreaks in Canada or the U.S. It’s therefore even less likely that there have been cover-ups. I haven’t seen more of Dr. Niman’s prediction that bird flu outbreak will be here.
I know the arguments about us having better bio-security in our poultry farms. I can also understand the argument that our border agencies are thorough in their work so no one can smuggle an illegal species into our countries – although I don’t believe it is absolutely fool proof.
Would it be possible that America is really immune to this disease in some way that we don’t understand yet? What would be the factor? Do we hold the key to immunity? If so, what would it be? Why else has it not got here yet (not that I want it to)? If we know the answer, we can all sleep better.
Finally, the Philippines don’t have it either, and they are a developing country, with possibly similar farming practices as Indonesia. I think even they are baffled. Somewhere in these discussions lie the secret to a cure – I hope.
Why less likely that there have been cover-ups?
The media does not seem to be very interested in covering/investigating this whole topic. The govts have their own, slow, timetables about what the public “needs to” know.
They’ve been finding “low-path” H5N1 in N.America/the US and not splashing headlines about it; didn’t they even change the reporting criteria; to something like, not unless so many birds/animals die the public can’t come up with a normal explanation ? There certainly are things/animals/people smuggled into the country everyday, so, don’t think that’s it; we also have rooster-fighting, wild pigs, wild/domestic species interacting, oh all sorts of stuff, people who butcher their own dinner, and hunters that eat, smoke, ect, while handling game. (Canada has a boil-water alert, and people behaving badly while trying to buy scarce bottled water.)There have been rumors of people in isolation in US hospitals, though they may just be rumors.
I do recall most pandemic plans I have seen gave much more space to pointing out how much media would have to be Managed, than to mention telling the public how to prepare to survive a pandemic year, keep the grid up, or, how to deal with mortality surges, ect.
When it keeps mutating, how do they know if the tests they are using are accurate? Also, there is not enough money and staff to do all the tesing of the species we’d probably need to be keeping eyes on.
Have some of the people/animals tested been on tamiflu/previously vaccinated and skewed the test results?
They don’t even understand exactly what changes low-path into high-path; may have to be a certain mammal vector, or some combination of brushes with other viruses, and the dice haven’t rolled the combo yet, in places that have H5N1 but no reported human cases yet. (And who knows what all is going on in Africa? -or China.)
There are enough places this can still go human-pandemic and then fly, sail, drive, walk, whatever, and be right on everyone’s doorstep in days.
We’re not ready, and there are so many reasons, in addition to H5N1 -which is scary enough -that we should be trying to become more resiliant and self-reliant, and, the public more aware of science, health, first aid and safety, what makes a sustainable community or country, ect.
crfullmoon – at 06:48
There appears to be a difference in reported incidents between Europe and America. That is a puzzle to me.
crfullmoon – at 06:48
Yes. I agree with everything you say. It’s an unbelievably bad situation.
crfullmoon - at 06:48
I also agree. The general population and TBTB will never admit or make any serious plans no matter what happens. I have given up trying to tell or convince anyone including my spouse. The data keeps getting worst, the number of cases higher and the spread wider but still no action by the majority of people. Its time to get out of the city while you can and make your preps where you will have a chance of survival.
I would say that it is not here for the same reason that it took a while for West Nile to get here. Animals aren’t quite as mobile as humans.
Just like the seasonal flu is not everywhere in the US instantly, it takes time to spread. Seasonal flu is spread by the back and forth travel of people who make contact with others who are also moving from place to place. Those who travel further carry it with them and it spreads. We in the US travel a whole lot, so the flu spreads quickly. Since migratory birds, assumed to be one of the major carriers, migrate and mingle long distances only twice a year, the time frame for the spread is longer that the time frame for spread among humans. The birds travel farther, but much less often. It will get here. I don’t think we have any special immunity.
But to me, birds infected with HPAI is a bit of a moot point. Even when we start seeing birds dying, that is not the time to SIP. We SIP when it goes H2H.
David at 1600
Very good point re “Even when we start seeing birds dying, that is not the time to SIP. We SIP when it goes H2H.”
For those of us who plan to SIP..
David – at 16:00
For a while, many people were waiting for ‘the shoe to drop’, and both U.S. and Canadian governments were collecting and testing samples. Geography could be a reasonable explanation. I was thinking about socio-economic conditions as well.
Apart from the U.S. and Canada, Philippines (close to Indonesia and they have a bird sanctuary with I think one instance of bird flu last year, and then it stopped) and Mexico don’t seem to have too many cases. So geography and socio-economic conditions may not be the only factors. I hope some one can explain this phenomenon.
The public consciousness is now one of bird flu is just a foreign problem.
I think you need to specify LPAI vs HPAI H5N1 in your discussion.
The thread title is misleading.
We DO have LPAI H5N1 in the United States as confirmed by multiple sources in multiple locations.
We do NOT have HPAI H5N1 as confirmed by multiple official sources to date.
Although the latter is very much in question in my mind after reading the DOD thread and the recommendations from DOD to their CONUS employees.
ANON-YYZ – at 16:15 “The public consciousness is now one of bird flu is just a foreign problem.”
I could not agree more with that statement!!! I, like you, have just about quit talking about bird flu among my friends. At least my wife is on board with me to prepare, but she does not want me to tell anyone.
(Go to Red Alert Mr. Sulu! Tin Foil Hat warning!!!)
I almost believe the government is not letting us know that we need to prepare because it would just lead to panic and food shortages. They expect a very high fatality rate. Since any adequate amount of vaccine production is a pipe dream, I believe they expect a certain (and possibly small) segment of the population to have a natural immunity. Those who survive can then just forage for canned food in the houses of those who have died while we try to put society back together again.
I am prepping. But I expect survival will ultimatety depend on two things: your intelligence because you prepared, and your being lucky enough to be immune…
(Tin Foil Hats off…)
On testing.
The recent discussion on testing and the latest mutations showed that the standard WHO test in eggs wasn’t as effective as testing in mammalian tissue.
That may also be a reason why it’s not being detected in the USA ?
The tests are self-selecting OUT the HPAI that like mammal cells.
Just speculation at this point.
On China.
I don’t believe they are ACTIVELY “trying to hurt the rest of the world” but I DO believe they are accomplishing this through omission and corruption (ie: in appropriate animal vaccines, not releasing sequences to gain commercial advantage, etc.)
That’s my opinion based upon empirical evidence to date, and probably not a popular one here.
Bird Guano – at 16:20
You are right, perhaps the mods could please change it to “No HPAI in America Yet”
But it’s not just America, as I posted earlier, the Philippines are really puzzling, both geographically close and socio-economically similar to Indonesia and other Asian countries, and yet practically nothing.
I didn’t cover the details of the DOD thread (I couldn’t open the file or link).
Bird Guano – at 16:20 “I think you need to specify LPAI vs HPAI H5N1 in your discussion.”
I believe most of us use “bird flu” and “H5N1” to mean HPAI H5N1. But your point is well taken that it is ambiguous and can lead to confusion.
Bird Guano – at 16:29
‘’On China.
I don’t believe they are ACTIVELY “trying to hurt the rest of the world” but I DO believe they are accomplishing this through omission and corruption (ie: in appropriate animal vaccines, not releasing sequences to gain commercial advantage, etc.)’‘
I agree with this assessment.
‘’On testing.
The recent discussion on testing and the latest mutations showed that the standard WHO test in eggs wasn’t as effective as testing in mammalian tissue.
That may also be a reason why it’s not being detected in the USA ?
The tests are self-selecting OUT the HPAI that like mammal cells. ‘’
I would think the accuracy of our tests should be no worse than those of developing countries.
Bird Guano – at 16:29
The testing issue is not as profound as some would believe. Plus HPAI is not something that is easy to hide, given that unless birds are vaccinated, sooner or later dead poultry will start turning up. And ANON-YYZ is right in that if anything tests as well as the supervisory process in western countries should be a lot more stringent than in some Asian countries,
The H5N1 distribution is a bit of an enigma. I can’t say about the Philippines cos its not a very developed country, but neither is Australia getting any HPAI, and they are very close to Indonesia and have been activley monitoring for it, fully expecting to get it because of migratory birds, and yet they don;t have it/
My guess is, and this is pure speculation, that to the extent that bird migratory patterns are extremely species specific, and the no of species that we have been testing is very low, it could be that H5N1 currently only lives in a few species of birds. And if those birds do not fly to America, then you would not get the virus. At least for now.
David – at 16:28 I almost believe the government is not letting us know that we need to prepare because it would just lead to panic and food shortages. They expect a very high fatality rate.
I think they are waiting until the holiday spending spree is over to tell us time to stock up and prepare to SIP. TPTB want to be sure we are buying TV’s and jewelry rather than corned beef and rice…got to be sure to eke every last available bit of our spendable income out of us before tshtf.
Mary in Hawaii – at 02:58 - Yep, that too ;-).
“got to be sure to eke every last available bit of our spendable income out of us before tshtf.” uh-huh.
:-/
anonymous – at 13:35; yup, I agree.
My present to myself is a portable wood stove tis holiday season.
Ok, what type of birds are known that are infected with HP H5N1?
Can you know from HP/LP division if the H5N1 is HP for humans? Definition of HP/LP is how deadly it is to *chickens* it doesn’t tell anything about what it does to people. Or does it?
I often marvel at the “islands of white” in the H5N1 map on the panflu.gov site. How about the island of New Guinea….half positive for BF, and half not. How believable is that? It isn’t. I think instead that all countries without currently detected H5N1 have to be seen as temporarily unaffected, or not having yet detected BF or being unable to detect BF due to poor resources. Ducks DO fly everywhere. Birds banded in France are found on the shores of the U.S., so I think we will have this in our wild bird population in time. There is the lag we experienced last year during migration…the time it takes for the virus to build up a noticeable presence in term of bird corpses. We are just having the same lag this year. I am interested in places like the Chesapeake Bay area this winter, Cape Hateras. We’ll know it we have High path H5N1 in January/07.
anon_22, Hiding H5N1 in the United Staes is quite. You simply don’t test. Less than 1000 dead or dying birds have been tested in the United States this year:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11210601/H5N1_IL_MI.html
“Moreover, the failure to detect H5N1 in any dead or dying birds appears to be related to a lack of testing. The breakdown of samples tested shows that almost 35,000 live or hunter killed birds have been tested, but the number of dead or dying birds is less than 1000.”
anon_22, Hiding H5N1 in the United Staes is quite easy. You simply don’t test. Less than 1000 dead or dying birds have been tested in the United States this year:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11210601/H5N1_IL_MI.html
“Moreover, the failure to detect H5N1 in any dead or dying birds appears to be related to a lack of testing. The breakdown of samples tested shows that almost 35,000 live or hunter killed birds have been tested, but the number of dead or dying birds is less than 1000.”
There may be a cover up, there may not. However, one difference between America and Europe (and of course Asia) is that we don’t have poultry or zoo animals dying. I really don’t believe THOSE have been hidden. What about Australia, Mexico, Philippines? I am still looking for an explanation. So far, the most credible is luck of the draw. Nature has it’s own way of doing things that we don’t understand.
The were no H5N1 positives reported in western Europe at this time last year and most postives in Europe reported in 2006 were in dead birds.
The dead birds in western Europe in 2005 were reported to be H5N1 negative.
Actually, Thinlina @11:15….
No, High pathogenicity in birds doesn’t necessarily translate into highly pathogenic for people….immediately. (I answer not as an expert, but as one who found this an interesting point of learning.) There are other bird flus that are pathogenic for birds, and start out as causing conjunctivitis in humans, like H7N7. The low path H5N1 on the North American continent has been circulating for decades and is not very harmful to birds, and not at all harmful to humans. Or else we would hear about alot of dead hunters.
I expect one of the reasons we don’t have poultry dieing in large numbers is because Most of our poultry in the US is raised in Chicken Houses. The backyard chickens that could be dieing Could be attributed to Other Reasons by their owners. A lot of these people are poorer and would never bring a chicken to the vet. Because of the lack of information in the MSM the people that have chickens walking around in their backyards have NO idea they could be susceptible to the flu. Then there is the other type of rural american…. There is a house (nice house, middle income) down the road about a mile from me that has chickens walking around the fenced back yard. Every person that steps out the back door is exposed to the fecal matter. The house right Next to it is more beautiful, they have a pond in the front yard with ducks. The house down the street has Guinea Hens that roam the yards and streets. They are always in the road just waiting to be run over. I’ll be dropping an info packet into their mailboxes …and their neighbors too. Welcome to rural North Carolina.
A former Lurker – at 12:16
I grew up and still live in Gaston County, NC. I know exactly what you are talking about. And now with developers buying old family pasture and farm land and putting 150 to 500 houses on them in between other farm land that still has the old family farm with chickens, ducks, pigs, guineas, peacocks and other animals running around, not to mention the Canada geese that are all over the place here, the potential for mixing avian and human flu is not just a problem in Indonesia. It could happen right here folks!
We are all looking at Indonesia and Egypt and all the other places we have decided a pandemic will originate from, and we talk about how unaware they are of the risk they are putting the whole world at. We talk a lot about the need to educate and inform our citizens to prepare for a possible pandemic. We need to also educate our own citizens on how to take proper precautions so we don’t foster the conditions to spark a pandemic. Like I said, it could happen right here!
A former Lurker - I agree, I know your area of NC, although I grew up in the eastern part of the state. We’re living just over the state line in SW VA now. I think everyone in the US assumes (a word I detest) that the pandemic strain will first appear “over there”, and then we’ll have to worry about how much time we have before it gets here. I don’t think a lot of thought has been given to the possibility that the US might be where the index case appears. I’ve thought about it quite a bit, especially since the flu outbreak in western NC - as far as we know now, that was not the beginning of IT - but when IT happens, that may be what IT looks like.
I could say I think it more likely to first appear there, at least partly because I think so much is being done to keep it hidden. Then I think a minute, and realize I feel the exact same way about the way things are going in the US - I think much is being done to keep it hidden, and because of that I think it’s every bit as likely to appear here first. Not a very comforting realization.
Of course, being aware of the rapid transit world in which we live, I’ve always figured it would be only a matter of perhaps hours from the appearance of the pandemic strain to it being spread worldwide. I have come to expect that the pandemic strain will flare into existence in multiple locations simultaneously.
Still, in hindsight, it will have had its origin somewhere - and it might just be here.
Question: with regard to influenza B or any other type of influenza right now here in the U.S. is anyone testing these strains for avian?
Thanks,
Argyll
Argyll – at 14:39
Influenza B is strictly a human virus. It is not an avian influenza like Type A.
Clawdia – at 14:35
I think everyone in the US assumes (a word I detest) that the pandemic strain will first appear over there, and then we’ll have to worry about how much time we have before it gets here. I don’t think a lot of thought has been given to the possibility that the US might be where the index case appears.
I must say when I started this thread this was the question on my mind. Does any one know if the 1918 pandemic started in the U.S.?
Some think it started in Kansas… if I can find the link where I read that, I will post it here.
Check this out - http://tinyurl.com/yjsceu