Yet another concern as either most of us live in a large city or in a rural area (as I do).
Whether or not you’re involved in pandemic planning for your community, I would bring this to the attention of your local Office of Emergency Planning (OEM) or police chief.
And regarding the timing of this seminar and the one that is offered 12/14 for mass casualties-are these more warning signs falling into place or is it due to demand for these types of classes? A tail-wagging-the-dog type of thing?
I dunno.
Very interesting GraceRN, especially as SUNY/ Albany seems in the forefront in terms of offering online pandemic preparation courses.
I checked into what the “Advanced Practice Center” was --- they are planning this seminar in conjuction with that group — and here is their information:
An Advanced Practice Center is a local health department (LHD) that is developing cutting-edge tools and resources that will help it and other LHDs nationwide prepare for, respond to, and recover from major emergencies. NACCHO’s Advanced Practice Centers are making unique contributions to the nation’s preparedness for a bioterrorist event or a disease outbreak of national significance. The tools they create and the training they provide are geared explicitly to LHD personnel, staff that work every day on the front lines of bioterrorism preparedness.
I wasn’t able to hear the text Grace — did you listen to the webcast?
ACM-no, I wasn’t able to hear anything. I’ll call or email the gent who is in charge oft hese archived webinars.
Darn!
Mass evacuation to rural communities. Sounds like locust on the land. Another thing to get ready for?
I was able to see and hear the presentation. I have RealPlayer installed on my ‘puter already, but if you don’t, just click on the RealPlayer logo on the page there just under the link to the presentation. Once you download RealPlayer, which should take only a minute, you’ll be able to watch all these presentations.
LOL-Locusts on the land would be apt. What a nightmare for those living in the rural landscape and those who suddenly find themselves there in tent cities. I hope the people in charge learned from Katrina where 90% of the population were already evacuated. Can you imagine what it would have been like if 100% of the population needed out?
Mass evacuations to rural communities are lunacy. The top 20 cities in the US alone (down to the size of Boston) would is something like 30 million or 10% of the population. And that is only 20 cities. In 1920 about 70% of the population was in rural areas. Now it is around 15%
Do the math and you will find that that you get about 8 urban people per rural toilet? There would not even be 20% of the water in rural area to support the urban people if they moved there.
Notice also that 1 in 4 rural households is “housing stressed” http://tinyurl.com/yywlmr Meaning they have problems like too many people per bedroom or incomplete plumbing.
There are fewer (by about 1/6th) health care providers and facilities:
Differences in Physician Population by Location 1995 Active Physicians Per 100,0005 Urban Large metro areas……………………………………………304 Small metro areas……………………………………………235 Rural >10,000 persons & adjacent to large metro………….123 >10,000 & adjacent to small metro…………………….123 <10,000 & adjacent to large metro……………………….70 <10,000 & adjacent to small metro………………………76 >10,000 & not adjacent to metro……………………….168 2,500–10,000 & not adjacent to metro………………….88 2,500 & not adjacent to metro…………………………….53
Why would any government send masses of sick people long distances to areas where there will not be enough health care providers, water and sanitation? If a major city like NYC with all its state and city taxes they take from their people to support their infrastructure cannot prepare, do you think that little Podunk can prepare for an influx of millions? Not to mention the fact that in a pandemic every place will have sick. The infrastructure is just not there for small towns to take in massive numbers of sick city people.
I would ask the opposite question: Why not a mass evacuation from the rural areas to the larger cities where there are public water systems, hospitals, distribution systems based on transportation centers, surplus rooms and so on.
DennisC – at 14:02
I think it’s a cop out by TPTB, an evasion of responsibility to deal with the problem, a fear of riots and social unrest.
I think we should try to save the cities and help the folks to prepare to SIP, no matter how hard it is. If cities fail, so does any chance of recovery. Rural areas are now dependent on cities. Your farm equipment need tiny parts that are made some where else in the world. The banks need to stay open. Governments operate out of cities. To say that we should abandon some cities is morally repugnant, with or without a blockade. To attempt to mass evacuate entire cities to rural areas is mass suicidal, especially in cold climates. It will be the beginning of the end of civilized society.
There was a time on this forum when apartment preppers post questions, now the threads have all but stopped. We have to put our collective minds together to encourage and help city folks prepare, not tell them it cannot be done and be prepared to mass evacuate to rural areas.
ANON-YYZ – at 14:34
Yes, the cities need to prepare and not expect that someone in out in the country will prepare for 8 of the city dwellers for them. (That is about what they seem to be saying) Cities have to be realistic. The first thing is to secure the water, sanitation and power. That is so much easier in the cities with shorter water lines and power lines to work with.
I still have these images of thousands of cars leaving the town running out of gas on the interstate to know where with no water, no food and a dead granny in the back seat and a feverish kid in a car seat. And they are all heading to the same small town that had to ration water last summer: A one-doc town with one examination table, no ventilators and no pharmacy and no funeral home.
The big cities need to wake up and realize that they are just like everyone else- they will be on their own and there is no safe heaven somewhere down the interstate. If your city coucil doesn’t listen, then vote them out. (sorry, I shouldn’t have gotten political)
The idea of evacuation of cities to the rural ares is not new. It was dreamed up during the cold ware to evac cities if enough warning of nuclear strike was given. Yea it was a bad idea then, too.
I was involved in civil defence in Flagstaff in the 1960s and this plan gave the Flagstaff CD people heartburn. The local rednecks said “ we’ll blow the bridges”.They still do! LOL. Kelly
DennisC@14:02
“Mass evacuations to rual communities are lunacy.”
I totally agree. The surrounding communities around here are small, and the “main” community 10 miles south of me, would be swallowed up with an infux of people. Fort Drum really put alot of stress on the communities around here for a long time. I guess all the farm land would become “tent cities,” and they would butcher the cows. I’m assuming that FEMA would use those detention facitilies they have scattered across the country. The very idea of this is bizzare!
It might make sense to have some partial evacuation of certain segments of the population ‘to the country.’
For instance, all Junior high school students and teachers to ‘summer camps’ in the mountains and national forests, where they can be sequestered for a period of time to get them away from the city and removed from chances of contagion. Or all the kids/family of health care workers/critical function workers out to areas restricted to avoid infections. Group living would be more economical food/water/and other resources wise.
After all, if everything does break down, wouldn’t you want a generation of young people and teachers, professors, and the other keepers of knowledge to be the ones to survive to restart the systems?
If certain healthy people were moved out of the cities to sequestered camps it would releave some of the stress on overburdened city facilities and free up resources to be used to maintain life as normal as possible.
Rural colleges, hospitals, resorts and other facilities could be expanded easily to handle maybe double the normal populations under ‘regimented’ conditions. some form of learning/teaching/education could continue so people would not lose too much time being ‘locked in.’
Letting individual people out of the cities to just wander around in the country would not be adviseable.
heddiecalifornia – at 15:52 ‘summer camps’ in the mountains …could be expanded easily to handle
I don’t think so. You must not know what those summer camps are like in the winter. No heat. Where does the food and water come from? Even with less than 1% of the children going to summer camp each year, the camps have to have rotating sessions all summer long. Think about it, how many of those inter city urban children go to camp each year.
Some more rustic camps would have even greater problems- have you ever had a latrine “freeze up”?
DennisC – at 14:58
Cities need to prepare. But city folks keep hearing it’s too difficult, your city may be abandoned, and you better move to rural areas. The few who comes here start planning to move out. The economies in cities generate a lot of government revenue, not all of which stay in the cities. We more or less look upon them as cash cows. However, it is still cheaper to try to keep the cities running, than abandon them. I don’t believe our economy or way of life (even for rural communities) will recover if we don’t try to save the cities. I don’t think it is possible to go back to the old days.
Some of us here now realize that in order to be safe, we have to make our own communities safe. I am saying that we have to extend that thinking to the whole country. If we have a reasonable argument that some preparation for city dwellers can reduce the effects of a pandemic, and explore ways of doing that given the space constraints, then we will reduce the likelihood of a complete collapse. I know it’s more difficult, but I think it needs to be done.
One of the principles that I read in a county pandemic plan was about solidarity. If we have a divisive stance between rural and cities, we will all fail.
Exploration mode: preplanned mass evacuation.
Current situation: much more than half of the population live in high-density, low-to-nil self-reliance locations. City dwellers can’t feel themselves in any case, right now. They use lots of energy for light, freezers (in a bad scenario, soon there would be no food) and transport (much of it massive and bad for your health, virus-wise). They have no water nearby.
Could it be that a preplanned mass evacuation would put them (us) in a better situation? What would be the advantages, in an ideal world, i.e., provided there was time to do it properly, planning and “prepping” for it? Then we’ll deal with the bad and ugly. Then, if we find the idea has any merit, we would want to see how to make it happen. (This is like closing schools early, in a way. If it’s bound to happen and has some advantages, do guide it.)
Advantages:
Problems:
Preparation that would be needed:
Obviously, this is just a start. Dream about it, then come back. See if we end up with something useful, at least for some people, at least in some areas, at least in some way. Or if maybe we can have ideas that would be useful for people who stay back in town. Don’t kill the idea just yet.
People could be located in sensible places: near water and food, so we need no transport or less transport.
Instant city decompression.
lugon – at 16:26
Who is going to ‘donate’ the land? How would you keep any economy running? In cold climates, how would you provide heat, in addition to water and sanitation? I don’t think a mass displacement is viable. I think SIP is less costly, in logistical, economic, health and safety terms, especially when you don’t know when to ask people to evacuate.
Here’s a link to actual instant city decompression. http://tinyurl.com/ta4gd
Makes for an interesting read.
The Texas Evacuation Disaster September 23, 2005
The massive evacuation from Galveston, Houston and low-lying areas by 2.5 million people has turned into a disaster all on its own. Today there is a 100-mile-long traffic jam that is full of furious Texans. It’s hot. People are running out of gas. There is nowhere to sleep, to rest, to change a baby’s diaper. Mayor Bill White admitted to journalists that “being on the highway is a deathtrap.”
I don’t think the people in the country would be too thrilled with hoards of sick and contagious “city folks“ moving in and making themselves at home with the local resources.
If people leave then the looters will have a field day.
I think people may do that may flee the cities on their own, but any planned mass evacuation is crazy. City people can SIP as well.
So, now that we know what can go wrong, could we make it better with some thinking?
Maybe it’s better to invest in things that can be grown outside the city, instead of trying SIP in a city appartment. Out there you have room to grow stuff which you can eat when you run out of tuna. Maybe you can stock up for 2 months, move out, and grow stuff for day 61 onwards?
If this can be done by 10% of the population, then we have to worry about 10% less people. City population density
I still don’t think that our salvation is some how move millions of people into areas with no roads, no water, no sanitation and then try to get supplies to their scattered locations. A tent gets very cold in the winter. For the cost of one tent for a family you could prep them for a month. For the cost of the fuel to transport tons of food to tent cities spread out miles away from rail lines you could build a vaccine plant. For the cost of the plastic sheets for millions to collect water, you could buy backup chlorine and fuel for a city and so on. For the cost of gardening equipment for someone that never “hoed a row”, you could buy a family a bottle of hand sanitizer, crank light and radio.
And that doesn’t even start to talk about the hospital rooms and clinics. Some people in my local school have to ride the bus 3 hours each way to get to school and live 70+ miles from the nearest hospital or clinic.
We need to forget the idea that somehow someone somewhere else will save us. We have to prepare state-by-state, community-by-community, city-by-city, family-by-family, person-by-person. No person, city or state needs to think they can ship off their problems for others to solve. (well maybe one country does) If a city won’t set up reserves of water treatment materials, do you think they will buy tents for everyone in town? There are not enough faucets, toilets, or kilowatts in Podunk Town to house extra tens of thousands of people. If a city will not pen a plan for school closure, do you think that they will make a plan give direction to their illiterates on where to go and how to get there?
Prepare for the small towns to burn the bridges, blast the tunnels, and pull the cattle guards. Prepare for no fuel for cars on the interstate. Cities need to use their taxes for auxiliary power units for hospitals, alternative water treatments, hardened communications, bulk stores of oral hydration materials, and encourage their citizens to prepare.
I’m just exploring the idea. Not sure about anything yet. I mean, now we have more time to think than the time we will have in a week’s time.
I doubt, very strongly, that rural people will permit this sort of mass migration, regardless of what TPTB try to do.
Question- How many shots from a high powered rifle does it take to close a 4 lane highway?
Answer- 4 to close the road, 2 more for each of the ditches, and 4–8 for the median strip, depending on width.
That is two clips from a Garand, of which there are millions in the US…….
I was able to see the webcast, and it was interesting. A lot of what they were talking about was self evacuation - people who feel threatened, decide on their own to leave the city, and just drive where they want.
They had stats for how many people would leave after different kinds of disasters, how many would leave after they were told it would be safer to stay, did they have a destination in mind, etc.
I would have liked to see more info on what a rural comunity could do to prepare for an onslaught.
lugon – at 17:00
Some ideas to prevent a collapse:
1. PPE, water, food for essential infrastructure workers i.e. electricity and water
2. PPE personal stockpile
3. develop ways to store water and food in apartments
4. strengthened telecommunication to encourage working from home
5. (near impossible, but must try) some hydroponic gardening. If they have to SIP, learn to become home farmers to get even a small amount of self sufficiency. If the market is big enough, some one might develop cheaper ways to do this.
How would city states like Singapore cope with this? They have no where to evacuate to. Do they just give up? I don’t think so. The government will have to be creative, work harder, and not pass the buck.
I keep trying to picture the big city people, some who don’t even drive, living in a tent in the country and waiting for a soup pot to boil. Some won’t evacuate, that’s just human nature. The other group will depend on money. Evacuation isn’t cheap, that’s why people who live paycheck to paycheck don’t evacuate. The people in the city must secure there own place, just like the rest of us are doing. They’re talking about something similiar to a hurricane evacuation. What they won’t know because they have no experience is motels and hotels may be booked, they just can’t accomodate massive evacuations. And people always expect their plastic credit to work and forget cold cash.
OnandAnon – at 17:02
How many sticks of dynamite does it take to close the state highway through this town.
2- one for the tunnel and one for the bridge. Or one bulldozer if you are out of dynamite.
….. During the Spanish flu, the locals would line the train tracks with shotguns and make sure it did not stop.
I am not saying they should do that- just that a big city shouldn’t assume that they can ship off their citizens on plaque trains/buses with no supplies and no plans and expect them to survive or be well received. Instead cities need to make efforts now to protect and prepare their citizens. Sending people out unprepared on an interstate during a pandemic is sending most to their doom. Cities should care more for thier citizens and take steps to save as many as possible with all the resources at their command.
You need to have your mask and goggles on before TSHTF.
aurora-
Just say “no”. that is what they WILL do, bet on it. I’d echo DennisC’s comments above….
I wonder what someone living in a city apartment would do if group of 8 rural people (that is the ratio of urban to rural population) appeared at their door and said they were going to camp out in the living room as they sneezed and said “what’s for supper”. What would you do if you had children and knew the odds of one of the eight “guests” having a 60. Once you understand that, you will have an idea of how the inverse would be.
Again it makes no different where you are, you need to prepare. Cities should prepare now. Schools should make plans now. Hospitals should store masks and supplies now. If TSHTF in Feb/March then there is not enough time to make 250 million tents. There is time for people to put a few cans of tuna under the bed if they start now.
Question- How many shots from a high powered rifle does it take to close a 4 lane highway?
Well, that’s one way to approach the problem. However, I highly doubt that the site of children dying of cold or dehydration along a closed highway is going to make the shooter feel that he or she made the right decision.
I’m glad to see this discussion continuing. Last month I posted my position that if the power went out for an extended period of time (months) in the winter here in Minnesota my family and I would be forced to leave. I was basically told I was a wussy and that it was my problem for not having my bio-digester up and running to generate my own power. You guys are tough. I told my husband about the discussion and he just laughed and said “Its not our problem - its theirs! We may be able to handle no power for a while, but 400,000 of our neighbors are going to be out of here fast!”
Last year I heard Hugh Parmer, the head of the American Refugee Commitee, speak about Darfur. His group has been setting up refugee camps for the displaced people there. He was fascinating. He spoke about defecation fields, the problem of keeping the young men busy and out of trouble, the importance of creating a structured day for children, the inevitablity of gender violence. He was also invited to DC after Katrina to advise TPTB on the refugee situation at the Superdome. By the time he got there the power structure had shifted and he was sent home (on his own dime!).
To pull this all together: I can’t imagine how any rural community can be ready to run a refugee camp of any size. To me, it seems that the best thing a rural community can do is work with their local utilities to determine what sort of help they can give more populated areas in keeping the water running and the power on. The “us vs. them” attitude I hear sometimes is disturbing. There is no “them,” only “us.” We all have a stake in keeping the infrastructure running, no matter where we live.
Also, I can’t imagine that rural populations will be all that better off than urban ones. Despite abundant natural resources, poverty and hungar exist in rural areas just as much as in inner cities.
For the cost of one tent for a family you could prep them for a month.
Up to a certain point, is SIP about cost? 3 months for a family, ok. How many families are there in the US alone? It doesn’t scale. Emergency gardens may help it scale. As I said, not sure.
Evacuation to starvation. Kelly
lugon – at 17:48 Emergency gardens
If it hits in the flu season, I don’t see how emergency gardens would work. You cannot plant in the snow. What would you plant? Where would the seeds come from. how long to you go before harvest? How do you keep the theives away from your gardens? I think it is better for a city to prepare with water,power, medical supplies, extra fuel, communciations than it is for a city to buy tents, seeds, hoes, …..
There is a reason that most small family farms are going away- big farming techniques are more efficent.
The big cities aren’t planning to ship people out - what they were talking about in that seminar is that people will panic and head for the hills - even if they are told to stay in place.
They used the example of 3 mile island, where they were told to stay in place unless they were pregnant/nursing or under the age of 9. Something like 1500 people. They ended up having 150,000 people flee and panic. (I could be wrong on the numbers - didn’t write them down)
My family lives in a very rural area of upstate NY - probably too far out to even be found by the city folk (I hope)
But what do they do if people just start squatting? Take the shotgun and chase them off to the next door neighbor’s field? And then what? What a mess…
If the government decides to triage and abandon some cities, it will be a disaster for nearby communities. Even after the pandemic is over, both those cities and nearby rural communities will not recover. TPTB is afraid to tell the public the truth now, and will have no way out when TSHTF other than abandon cities. We will all be affected. We must not allow this to happen. Cities must prepare, not triage.
As for blowing up the bridges and tunnels, do we really want a civil war in the midst of a pandemic? Desperate people do desperate things. We must not let this happen. If there is a will, there is a way. The time to act is now.
aurora – at 17:15
I think that city folks who have become educated about pandemics, and who have money, may start investing in their “safe haven” long before the pandemic hits. They will probably buy an old farm in a part of the country where you can grow things most of the year, or at least buy the land and investigate the purchase of a double-wide mobile home that could be installed on a moment’s notice. Then they will buy lots of supplies and put them in the house/mobile home. Count on it.
Millions of people in the major cities make enough money to do this. Think of it as their insurance policy. When the time comes, they will close up there city dwelling, throw some clothes in the back of each of their cars, and head out. There will be millions of people who will do this when the writing on the wall becomes a little clearer. Perhaps this winter. They will operate on the assumption that it will be safer to SIP in a rural area (and if necessary burn wood for heat and cooking and get water out of a stream) than to take the chance of dying in the city. It may be near relatives, then again it may not. They may even buy enough land and mobile homes to accommodate their extended family and tell everyone that they have to help with the farm work. For a city person, it’s not a bad plan. For those of us in the country, well, what are you going to do. It’s still a free world.
Waprepper-
where abouts are you located in upstate, n.y.? I’m near the st. lawerence rive, near clayton.
I just don’t see how TPTB would even remotely think this would work. City dwellers who left on their own, would no doubt encounter some very hostile people out here where I am, and where would they go if they did not have family and friends. When TSHTF, “Go away” signs on doors will be the norm. The situation will become “every family for themselves.
the idea of replacing fine warm houses with tents? who made that up? its just plain stupid.. tents need all of the things houses allready have,,, and refuge camps are allway plauged with epedemics, guess why..
I think this “move to the country” is a reflex in humans, we know that our cities are not substainable, and all to big to feell secure in if order breaks down.. This leads to “run for the mountain” ideeas, but have nothing to do with what you will actualy achive threre. Humans live by housing, food, water, heath etc. All that is in everybodies house right now.. Make sure it gets more robust, that is what TBTB should take care of..
but for a chemical/biological atack, well that would be something else, a local else. A pandemic is everywhere, so not much need to move..
What is smart and what people will do when panicked are two different things. Also, if the grid goes down, as I think it almost certainly will during a severe or very severe pandemic, then the cities will not have water, lights, food, heating or cooling, or anything else. Worst of all, they won’t have TV or radio. What will happen is that there will be a panicked surge out of the cities on about the third day the grid is down, and this surge will be resisted by the rural folks who know that there is less than 2 months worth of food in the US, and who won’t want to share with city folks. Make no mistake, this will be a violent time. Whether we want a civil war or not, we’ll have one. The country will not have a carrying capacity adequate to support the present population absent industrialization and a self reliant populace.
Read Lucifer’s Hammer, Atlas Shrugged or Dies the Fire for what I think are very realistic depictions of what would happen if TSHTF.
unless, a fire starts in the city and people are unable to fight it… or in areas where wildfires happen near large cities… or, if coastal areas get scoured by another hurricane,
or… maybe a volcano goes kaplooie, or well, there are earthquake faults on their own unknown time tables; New Madrid fault, or the tsunami potential in the Caribbean’s Septentrional fault zone… whatever your regions’ equivalents are… asteroid strikes…
An Advanced Practice Center is a local health department (LHD) that is developing cutting-edge tools and resources that will help it and other LHDs nationwide prepare for, respond to, and recover from major emergencies
The public will always outnumber the authorities; isn’t an educated, prepared, public best for preparing in partnership for, responding to, and recovering from, even a pandemic influenza year? This will not be a top-down, continuity-of government-uber-alles, “emergency” event.
Robust, sustainable, multi-talented:
regions, communities, families, households, individuals, and, some “think globally, eat and get your energy and water locally” now, or, you do have a negotiable way of life, or, you have an unsustainable way of death… it isn’t possible to fool Mother Nature…
urdar
What are your prorities? Are you trying to save yourself and your family, or are you trying to save the world?
I suggest that you do not have the capacity to save the world. No single government in this current world has that capacity, or even the will power to do so.
If you are living in a big city when this hits, you are toast. Guaranteed. The PTB could give a flying frap about your individual situation.
If you don’t live in a self-sustaining region (rural), your chances of survival are nil. Your block house apartment in a city ain’t gonna hack it. It will be very much colder than a tent.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that you won’t be around to enjoy it.
Consider your options - while they are still available. Act now, while you can.
Here’s a question:
If you live near or in a major city — and plan to relocate to SIP at the home of your parents, say, in a more rural are — would that be considered an “evacuation”?
I.E what would the effects be on a small(er) town of such types of human migration? Kind of like what will happen next week in the US (lots of city folks driving to visit/stay with their relatives for Thanksgiving) only — they don’t leave; they stay for 3 months, maybe.
So, not even thinking about a bunch of tents and such — everyone invited and living peacefully, for the most part — just (perhaps) twice as many people (hypothetically) consuming twice as much water and fuel as the town had possibly been planning on during a pandemic. Only, maybe they hadn’t had the forethought to bring their own food.
As County Health Officials are thinking about their population, adding up beds and health care workers and possibly even medicines and body bags — are they taking into account in more rularl areas the fact that their population may swell, as people move in with their relatives? Should they take that into account?
Should people in the small(er) towns reduce access to their town from family members wishing to come stay with family members? Should they close off their highways to all cars to keep the city relatives out?
Just wondering out loud….
Average Concerned Mom – at 21:40 “just (perhaps) twice as many people (hypothetically) consuming twice as much water and fuel as the town had possibly been planning on during a pandemic”
The ratio of urban to rural is not 1 to 1. It is 8 to 1. Even if only half the people in towns left to go to rural lands that is still 5 times the need (4 urban “visitors” and 1 rural owner) for water systems that are designed for 1. Five times the load on sewage systems, five times the electrical loads…. It is not workable even if we wanted to.
DennisC —
Well, I am thinkking of going to stay with my folks. Am I an evacuee? Is it OK with y’all if I go? What if everyone goes to stay with their family>
I keep reading about great hordes on the move in these threads — wouldn’t there be an awful lot sick or dying or caring for the sick and dying? How do you pillage and loot when you are desperately ill? If the CFR stays horribly high, there may be lots of empty houses with at least some things left in the pantry . . .
What a thread! I’m with DennisC, evacuation to the countryside is a dumb idea. My wife and I have considered hosting an additional 14 people (mostly family) if TSHTF. Our rural home has 2 wells and a septic field. I told her that with that many people, the first 6 guests are OK, but the rest will have to use Rectite if we are going to make it. :)
On a more serious note, more than 50% of the homes in our county are vacation homes. The vast majority of these people are doing ‘advanced tailgating’. None within site of my home seem vaguely equipped to weather a pandemic. They cannot even drive at night without a street lamp every 50 yards (they are the ones with the high beams on constantly).
Many of us are very, very concerned that when TSHTF they will all come up with family and friends and a couple of coolers. Not much else.
If things get as bad as we seem to think they may, and these people start making demands for food or fuel (firewood), there will most likely be considerable violence.
The cities must prepare and limit an exodus.
I was just thinking, what if everyone living in a small town decided to take in some relatives? Not, what if everyone living in a small town decided to take in 8 times as many people as currently live in their house. Yeah, that wound’t work. But what if they just took in some relatives, maybe some grandkids for the duration. Could it work?
(I’m not actually asking anyone’s permission to go stay with my parents.)
And by the way, I reallly REALLY don’t think anyone is saying, “Hey, in the event of a pandemic year (ot 2 or 3 year period) let’s relocate all the inhabitants of all the cities to the surrounding countryside.”
A much more likely scenario is the one ssol and I are talking about — city folks moving to their second homes (ssol) and young adults bringing their families home to stay with the parents/grandparents. People moving to where they already have shelter — though perhaps not food and supplies; though perhaps yes. Certainly *I* would bring food and supplies.
Average Concerned Mom and ssol
I think it would be very difficult to restrict residents and their families to come into your neighborhood, even if they are vacation homes with an empty fridge. I don’t think it’s legally possible. Even if 1/8th of the city comes to your neighborhood, you will have doubled the population. It is a sad reality that needs to be dealt with.
The cities must prepare, more so than rural.
ANON-YYZ
To be clear — *I* would be one of the persons attempting to relocate into a perceived “safer” rural community. (Just wanted to make that clear.
But as to it being difficult (or illegal) to prevent it from happening — I know. I’m wondering though if that is something these smaller towns (and their infrastructure) are going to have to plan for — people legally offering their homes as a place of refuge during a pandemic year (to three year period.) Maybe that’s ulitmately the point of the seminar that GraceRN posted the link to at the start of this thread — to understand that it is a natural desire during an extended outbreak of infectious disease to relocate to less densely populated areas, should you have the means to do so. So, small towns — start thinking about that fact!
On the other hand, if small(er) towns and villages start shooting out the tires of cars and trucks to immobilize them on the highway and thus block people like me, to make it impossible for me and my family to get by on the way to my parents’ house, it doesn’t matter whether it is legal or not for them to try to prevent me, does it?
Average Concerned Mom – at 23:05
If you read the story on the link provided by Ruby – at 16:40, you have to bet that you get out of the city ahead of every one else, and before the rural communities get nervous. Some of those folks in the story turned back fearing that they will run out of fuel before the hurricane arrived. You may need a plan ‘C’, i.e. turn back and SIP in the city. In any case, if your city is better prepared, it will be easier for you to leave because you will have less competition on the highways and your nearby rural areas won’t feel so threatened to take drastic actions.
Average Concerned Mom – at 22:38
We seem to have gone over these ideas many times in the past. I still say it is best to prepare. If you go to mom’s that is fine but you should help her prepare. You should be shipping her Honeyville powdered eggs and crank lights. It is not about going or staying it is about having a prepared place and having a way to get there when people are dieing around you. Being unprepared in the city or the country is equally deadly. Cities should prepare because (just like Katrina) many people will stay, cannot leave or there may be no passable routes or fuel. To think that every one is just going to leave the major cities and find a paradise somewhere else is not realistic. The logistics of cities thinking they will buy tents and seeds for everyone and send the packing is crazy.
So if I was asked (I wasn’t but that doesn’t stop me from giving free advice) if a city dweller should leave: I would say I would leave but I would have a plan, a place to go to, a place that I know and would accept me, and I would help them prepare. I would help them dig wells and put up solar cells or what ever it took. I would have tilled the garden and planted fruit trees. I would not show up at their door with a fever and sneezing with nothing in my hand then say: you don’t remember me but I am your second cousin twice removed.
I’d just tell them I’m their rich cousin from Texas, and I’m leaving everything to them.
DennisC has the right idea, and from lack of any other, better ideas I’ve heard, I’d say take his (you are a him?);-) common sense advice. Your best bet for survival is planning for SIP.
ANON-YYZ — thanks.
But I’m really thinking that relocating for a pandemic will be far and away different than evacuating for a hurricane. For one thing, in a hurricane, you have the officials of the city urging everyone to leave now for their own safety. There is a presumption that we can keep everyone safe, if we can just get them to do the right thing, i.e leave.
With a pandemic there really is no safety anyone can promise the entire populace — as I am starting to understand it, we will have to live with this virus until about 30 to 40% of the population is infected, to develop herd immunity so that any further outbreaks are halted and the spread, the epidemic, is stopped. Until (or unless) there is an effective vaccine, it just has to plow through our population and infect that percentage of people — so there is no way to tell people “go here” and you will be safe or “stay at home” and you will be safe. There really is no safe place you can tell everyone to get to.
I expect therefore for there to be very little announcement either way — at the start of the pandemic — it MAY be safer for an individual in a more rural are or it may not — I rather expect people just to be told officially that everything is under control; just wait it out in their own homes, where ever they are.
I can’t imagine people leaving a city for a pandemic the way they do for a hurricane (if they do) because so many people have no place to go. They might have a place for a week or two (as in a hurricane) but very few people would have a place set up for 12 weeks or more.
So, any advice for a hurricane or other natural disaster I take under consideration, of course — but I doubt it would apply to a pandemic year.
Nevertheless if I do leave, I would do so sooner rather than later, because I think small(er) towns may decide to make it difficult for outsiders to enter.
DennisC at 23:19
So do you thin small towns are planning on having extra people during a pandemic year? Are they factoring in the extra population into their equations (if they are planning at all?) That’s really my point here, not so much how to get to mom and dad’s house and what to bring with me.
Just thinking about the early pioneers that literally walked from Missouri to California before the gold rush. Lived for a winter in the Sierras on boiled leather shoe laces and harness.
The prairie homesteaders that came out in droves and dug down and made houses out of sod with canvas roofs, lived for a while on supplies, and then started growing food and raising chickens.
Some of the Montana homesteaders that sent their 13 year old boys out to winter on 160 acres in a small wooden shack in order to claim the land in the spring.
The people from Oklahoma and Arkansas that came out to the west coast in the dust bowl years piled 15 to an old car with a wash tin and old mattress on top, and that cooked in tin cans at the side of the road. Some of us are going to be tougher and wiser and more clever than we ever dreamed we had to be. Some of us (maybe a lot of us) are going to be dead. I have a pretty good feeling that if this flu doesn’t get us, others will, as there are so many viruses coming in from the animals we are crowding out, or hybridizing to eat all kinds of foods they were never naturally expected to eat. And then there is global warming.
I guess that we have already run out of time to create a sustainable life style for most now alive. We are about to reap what we’ve sown in the high rise cities and towns, and our blatant disrespect of all other life forms, and our unwillingness to spend the money on education and justice for people.
Everything seems to turn on the actual CFR. Mild, we go on to the next series of crises. High and deadly, it’s going to be a brand new world.
I think I am going to go off and have something over the rocks.
Will it be safer in a large city with water and sewage designed for its population or in a small city with only third the water and sewage it needs, third the grocery stores and third the medical clinics and doctors needed? Would you be less likely to catch the flu in a city with one person per bedroom or a rural house with three people per bedroom? Would you be better off in a city with funeral homes or one with no funeral home? Would your children be safer from the flu in a town with schools designed for their students or a small school crowded with three times the children than normal in their classes?
Again ‘’everyone’’ needs to prepare. That includes cities like NYC and LA. If a few hundred thousand people from NO stressed all the surrounding cities what do you think dozens of major cities of a million each would do? Big cities should prepare and “harden” their basic utilities and supply lines for the flu and other disasters and be ready to help their citizens.
Sure go to granny’s, if you can, but help her prepare and be ready to spend days on the interstate with your sick kid in the back seat- or leave before anyone else on the net can see the upside down swan on the fluwiki site.
Average Concerned Mom-
I believe you are right, in that small(er)towns may decide to make it difficult for outsiders to enter. At least for here, when you are warned about a blizzard, and you decide to go joy riding or whatever the reason be, be expected to be turned away, because you were warned. We’ve turned a few people away over the years, mainly for saftey/health reasons, and they got ugly with US. It’ll go both ways, that’s for sure. Someone could really get upset at your denying them to stay, and they force their way in. I see all sorts of ugly situations.
As CRFULLMOON mentioned, fire is a serious concern in a concentrated metro area is either fire-fighting personnel or water go short. Depending on the severity of a pandemic, breakdown of JIT supply lines could also create problems not only in delivery of food, but if longer term affects are felt in the system, production of food. For any of a number of reasons, realocation of resources, including person-power may be necessary to protect people or to provide labor/work to get things done or give people employment.
How severe this would be would depend largely on the severity of the pandemic and the level of collateral damage to societal infrastructure.
Growing enough food to sustain even one person day in and day out, requires a great deal of work. Some areas of the country do not grow grain well. Even if one could grow enough vegetables, as DennisC mentioned where will the seeds and tools come from? Water for the crops? And in order to perform the physical labor, humans would need to eat enough to sustain themselves for that labor.
We have grown vegetables here and have had for instance, a complete crop of winter squash stolen from the growing area one night while we slept. The creeps took every single one, and what was so bizarre is they were all under-ripe, not edible yet. And this was during “normal” times. What will happen during times of food shortage?
Anyone trying to get through times of limited food supply, whether in a city or in the country, ought to consider growing extra food during the available growing season, wherever they might be living. But I don’t envy someone trying to dig up a lawn with a shovel. Consider the tools that might be needed.
And by the way. Small family farmers are actually going under not necessarily because they are inefficient compared to large factory farms, but because they can’t compete well enough to make a living. The large farms are trashing the soils with too many chemicals, selling their large production for low prices, and driving smaller competitors out of business.
Believe it or not, seeing that our soils remain healthy is one of the foundational behaviors that will help keep certain pathogens at bay. IMHO.
I think the most likely scenario, at least early on in a pandemic year, is one of city-dwellers relocating (invited) to their family’s homes in the countryside. This would be likely to happen if, for instance, schools are closed and the time frame people are being told is “for about 6 to 8 weeks” (What the US Dept. of Education webcast said.)
So, the idea of staying at home with 2 kids in a 2 bedroom apartment with no social interactino is about more than one parent can stand to envision, so she ups and relocates (invited) to her folks place in the country 2 hours away.
When people think “evacuees” they think strangers; but I think the first evacuees will be invited friends, family, and former inhabitants — people who grew up the the town.
They might think of sending the children to the country - like they did from London during the Blitz - I suppose most farm families could support a couple of extra kids if they came early enough to ensure they werent already infected.
ANON-YYZ – at 22:48 Let me expand on my point. If there are no travel restrictions, many people will leave the cities hastily for their ‘country home’ whether it is their own or Aunt Tilly’s place. The majority, as we all suspect, will be caught flat-footed and leave in a panic without much - a bottle of Jim Beam, a sweat suit and new sneakers (see http://www.frfrogspad.com/disastr.htm for more on this).
I live in a typical rural area; there isn’t a town, it’s a township. The nearest grocery is 15 minutes away and it’s small and expensive. Most people go 20 - 45 minutes to shop. The immediate area cannot support everyone’s needs. So what’s most likely to happen is that ‘outsiders’ run out of food and start ringing door bells. This will really set some people off. They will not be welcomed, they will be warned to get off the property or get shot. Police are 45 minutes away on average, and are state troopers, no local police.
Out of towners will get belligerent, angry and start making demands and threats (their kids are hungry!). Locals believe the threats and put the dogs on ‘em. Next day, more are back making demands. Troopers cannot handle it because of other serious calls and someone starts shooting. Innocent people get hurt. Now it’s starting to sound like Katrina…
Unless the state, county or township has a plan and the food to help these people, they are going to be in bad shape. Probably better off staying in the city/surrounding area.
DennisC at 23:40
“Will it be safer in a large city with water and sewage designed for its population or in a small city with only third the water and sewage it needs, third the grocery stores and third the medical clinics and doctors needed?”
I’d say it would be safer in the small town, if you had land than in a city apartment. If utilities failed, in a house with a yard, at least you could catch rainwater, ya know? In a city even that option would be really hard.
“Would you be less likely to catch the flu in a city with one person per bedroom or a rural house with three people per bedroom?”
If people practiced strict SIP there shouldn’t be a difference either way.
“Would you be better off in a city with funeral homes or one with no funeral home?”
In a city the funeral homes would be overwhelmed quickly, and we’re talking either mass graves or storing the bodies in a spare room, which apartment dwellers really don’t have. AT least in a house with a yard, you could dig a hole if need be.
“Would your children be safer from the flu in a town with schools designed for their students or a small school crowded with three times the children than normal in their class…”
Schools will be closed regardless, right? So moot issue.
Overall, I think relocation to a more rural area sounds safer than staying the city.
As a historical note (OK I have a physics background) Newton left London in the plague year (1665, Cambridge was closed). He went to the family farm (mother was a widow). There were apple trees there and that is where he developed his “laws”.
If my daughter shows up at my door in this plague, she would be welcomed here. But I sure hope she would bring a few pounds of rice and beans and a few physics books.
But do you have any apple trees? (-:
Average Concerned Mom – at 00:13 Make sure you show up with a 16′ UHaul with supplies. The neighbors won’t want to hear it.
Nothing personal, but SIP will be for months, if not a year (you likely won’t be going back to the city until the pandemic is well over) and you will be seen as a scab by most locals if you are a net drain on resources, especially if your one of many.
Average Concerned Mom-
I really do think that the people who leave first, will be heading to the rual areas to stay with family/friends/vaation homes. I can not see problems there, or even with people sending their kids out to stay with family. We read of a reoprt in the Indenosia thread of families doing that. What concerns me and I think the rest of us too, is that second huge wave of people who for whatever reason leave the cities, be it saftey, food/water/ sanitary conditions, fire, ect., all these people are going to be looking for some place to go, and they don’t realize how disapointed they will be when they get out here in rual land. Nobody will take them in, they have no money, no gas, no food, and they are in a paniced state of mind. What would you do?
I have tried to grow apples here but the gophers and deer get them. And there are no bees around at this altitude. Wild strawberries and gooseberries but you have to get them before the bears and raccons. I am working on growing blue green algae (a “superfood”).
I hope you get to your folks before TSHTF and all is well and I trust you have stored up some rice and TP at mom’s.
Thanks ssol, we’ve got it covered.
(a scab????)
Rural people have enough concerns without being expected to put up city folks. I’m in the country & if any family shows up they better have their own tent/toilet/food/heat because I’m not SIP with them in my house. They can pitch their tent out back but I’m not endangering our health or taking on the job of running a B&B. It still sounds like some think there will be someone out there to take care of them; that’s your job so get prepped. I sound tougher than I actually am because I’m preparing myself to say no and enforce it as needed. It’s not my job to save the world.
“How would city states like Singapore cope with this? They have no where to evacuate to.”
Some places just don’t make plans, they make true preparations. A friend lived through the Kobe earthquake in Japan (his house collapsed). He was astounded by the government’s response. BY THE END OF THE DAY, there were water stations at approximately a 4 block grid points. At them, everyone in his area was has handed a government- made personal pack containing a small and very serviceable tent, high-tech blanket, personal hygiene items, and quite serviceable COOKWARE with a small gas stove. Lines were formed outside of grocery stores, and people were let in a few at a time by the managers? to TAKE basic foodstuffs, rice, dry vegetables, which they could COOK on their stoves (and kept people busy). My friend thought supplies were eventually replenished into the stores by government truck, but he wasn’t sure, although food lasted very well as people were sure they could get more tomorrow so no one was grabbing hoards. Alot more to it, but truly, evacuating the cities is crazy. They must be kept livable, but one of things that has financed the USA’s fat and happy lifestyle is simply pretending nature will always be kind to us. Cooperative (read as governmental) provision for disaster is a necessary companion to huge population centers, and after the pandemic, it will get alot of support. The Japanese government DID THE JOB, in advance, at least for that level of disaster. We should insist on and pay for the same.
so… the city folk are going to set up their tents… where? on the land people use to grow crops and livestock? what happens to your food supply then? city folk that trespass on rural private land should expect the exact same treatment they give the homeless where they live now, less the nice law enforcement officer that shows up when the dial 911. home invaders and thieves will be in for a rude awakening. where i grew up, law enforcement was 45 minutes away, every house had firearms, and there was no crime. no one was that stupid.
Advice for those planning to evacuate large cities: Going to your family’s house makes you a legitimate evacuee. That’s what 60% of evacuees do. Thirty percent will try to drive out to motels or hotels-not family-which the closest will be full. As long as they have money and gas they can travel across the country assuming they can find food. The 30%’s cause much problem when they run out of money or gas. You see them with signs up begging for gas money or a meal for the kids. 10% stay and cope with what comes. 50% of people who’ve evacuated report they spent at least one night in their car and they weren’t planning on it.
I don’t understand why anyone would stay in a “mega city” which would virtually be a sealed in pest house and where violence would be extreme immediately. It took my brother in law nine hours to go about fifty miles in a hurricane evacuation. Gas Guzzlers run out of gas and block the roads because they don’t pull off the road. People go into a rage and run into someone at a snails pace and demand a policeman for insurance or a brawl.
If you’re leaving you damn sure better be out in front of the pack in a fuel efficient car. Take off in a Suburban midway or at back of pack and you are stranded. Another evacuee might offer you a gas can but most along the route won’t, because by then you will be the 50th person to ask for help. Also-people hate the gas guzzlers who take three times the amount of a Camry to fill up and don’t go nearly as far. Fights at gas stations because “you will find the gallons of gas you’re allowed to pump restricted” without exceptions with a man and a loaded rifle ready to deal with you. In evacuations hardly anyone gets a full tank unless you’re in that elite first wave. Some gas stations just close down because they can’t deal with the people stealing, screaming and threating to call the home office because the toilet is overflowing and baby girl can’t go in that stinking mess. You don’t see Honda’s Camry’s VW on the sides of the road because people will give them gas—gas guzzlers are always ignored because one gallon won’t last a mile.
Don’t mean to preach but if you’ve never been in a MASS evacuation, you will get a big surprise. It’s not like you can pull over to pee. You’re at a dead stop on the interstate or moving a foot an hour. Once you’re off the road, it’s hard to get back in, because a calm cool person is as rare as a hissing comet. Good Luck!
ssol – at 00:11
Your area sounds like mine. We are 300 miles from one good sized city to the north, and 500 miles from two large CA cities to the south (not counting Redding). I know that people around here have discussed how to defend the valley against - well, after 9–11 there was such discussion. There is really only one road that goes through the valley and it would be a simple matter to prevent anyone from coming in - it would take a backhoe or dozer and a few people with fire arms.
IMO, relatives or friends who want to find shelter with their kin or friends in the country ought to make the arrangements now, and leave for their retreats before the S really HTF. DH and I have already discussed offering our place to help a few others since we have facility for a few more. But we would never, ever take in strangers. Ever. We wish them well but we also know human nature.
cottontop – at 00:27 …What would you do?
find govt (public) forest, build a shelter, clear a fire circle, gather edible plants and nuts, set a few snares, do some fishing, hunting, build a fire for cooking, with a reflector for warmth. basic neanderthal survival… worst case… don’t plan on getting to that point, but that’s what i’d do should things end up that way.
Fleeing an expected natural disaster such as a flood or hurricane which is expected to last a few hours is quite different than trying to escape an event which is expected to last months or years. In the former scenario you only need to consider packing belongings and provisions for a few days.
I’ve always been a city dweller, mostly in low crime suburbs. I really can’t see people being dumb enough to flee into the country without having a place to go to and provisions they can count on.
I don’t recall reading any recollections of 1918 about city dwellers abandoning the cities.
I have 35 people to prepare for. I have prepared for 50. If you want to be at my house than the rules are that if you are in than you stay in if you leave than you can not come back into the house. Family and friends in the area also have there lockdowns in place. To be sucessful you must have rules and boundaries. Yes I will fight and protect. I also will and do blame the government for not putting the information out for all to prepare for. You give a busy person the money and they will set up services and supplies well ahead of time. The more publicity the better. With proper masks supplies can travel via desnigated person from one location to another. I do not believe people should leave the cities, I do however believe in BIG generators. Just an idea,what are you getting your family, friends, co-workers employees for Christmas?
You folks are great. Good comments.
Prepping Gal at 1:00, I’m with you. This ain’t gonnabee a free ride - not at my place.
I’ll provide the seeds, water, and hoes. Those that are invited to come here must provide the labor to grow those gardens that will sustain them. I’ll go that far. But pitch your tents (or park your R.V.’s) away from my house. I’m not running a B&B or a hospital.
One thing I’ve learned from all of this is that if my wife and I host guests, they may be here for much longer than a ‘wave’ or two. If the 1918 pandemic lasted 2 - 3 years, then our guests from the city (NYC) may be with us for at least a couple of years. Without a vaccine, the cities may be in trouble for quite a while. And the vaccine would need to be available globally, not just NYC because without a global vaccine the JIT system will not get back on it’s feet and the cities (like elsewhere) will be in jeopardy vis-a-vis infrastructure. This is a distinct difference from 1918 when economies were local. This global JIT economy will act as a powerful catalyst for collateral damage and suffering.
Our guests from the immediate area may be able to return home sooner, but the 2 from NYC (my in-laws !@#) will be with us for a while. Something to think about.
ssol — off topic but the whole JIT (Just in Time) thing really confuses me.
Even if we didn’t have a Just In Time business model, even if stores routinely stockpiles say 1 months worth of goods, wouldn’t we still have a problem during a pandemic, because our market is now so global? Isn’t the global economy the real problem?
And yeah, looking at a pandmeic 3-year period is a whole lot different than thinking “SIP for 6 weeks”, isn’t it?
I don’t know that any one on this thread has said they are looking for a free-ride, a B&B or a hospital if they leave the cities. Most likely they will be looking for their family.
I do know that many on this forum say they are prepping for themselves and also for some family members to come stay with them. So obviously, people ARE planning to take in evacuees, and clearly more will plan to do so as they start to learn more.
I do hope people who are modeling the long term effects of a pandemic year on society will take these numbers into account — plan on a significant relocation of the population into the suburbs and countryside — perhaps as much as double the numbers. That would impact electrical use, water use, sewers, and so on. (Obviously if a family had their own well or septic system the rise is population would affect only that household.)
And Maid in Michigan — prepped for 35 and working on 50 — you are amazing! All I can say is, Wow! (-:
Leo7 forecast the road situation pretty clearly; think “home” for Thanksgiving, or, every-one-get-to-the-beach-Fri. night travel, and, the recent hurricane evacuation highway nightmares all rolled into nothing we’ve ever seen before. Students are away at college. Many people will all be trying to re-locate at once. By not being honest, tptb have been making things much, much, worse that they have to be.
(My relatives won’t stop travelling, and barely have let themselves think about what I’ve been trying to get them to. They don’t want to “stop living” -hey, neither do I; and, I’m picky about how I spend the days before my death, too. The one in Boston I offered to take in, called me “insane” and hasn’t been heard from since.) Locals take info I give them, and never want to talk about contingency planning; I will not want to discuss it once pandemic starts.
I want to not drive off the bridge that’s out ahead; not listen to the screaming, after the rush hour flies off the edge, call phones in hand…what can I do then? Watch previously preventable deaths? Why?
Why do so many do nothing and say, later, if they’re sure, they “will go get stuff then”- that is what everyone else will need to do that week and it won’t be possible.
The reason we didn’t hear much about mass relocation in 1918 was 50% of the population was already living on farms, (the rural US % is about the optimistic CDC cfr now) people did not expect the govt to rescue them, they helped their neighbors and their neighbors helped them, and, people didn’t have air travel to be jetting around the world for business and pleasure, they also did not drive around the way we do, and, they were 1/3 our current population or so, right?
Because tptb don’t want to be transparent and have the public as partners in community contingency preparations it is close to impossible to get things to happen that need to.
… “They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings.
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things” …
Average Concerned Mom – at 07:27
“ssol — off topic but the whole JIT (Just in Time) thing really confuses me.
Even if we didn’t have a Just In Time business model, even if stores routinely stockpiles say 1 months worth of goods, wouldn’t we still have a problem during a pandemic, because our market is now so global? Isn’t the global economy the real problem? “
I would agree that global trade is the source of the problem, much more than JIT business practices. Global trade will mean that the data switches I need to replace failed units in my employers network will be shipped from China or PacRim locations. That creates a much greater likelihood we will not get them than if they were made in Baltimore. The reason is the additional communication, transportation, customs and management effort needed will be much harder to line up for a quick delivery. It will probably take many months.
JIT simply exacerbates that risk; if Jones Technology Distributors maintained a 12 month sales inventory we would probably get stuff from them faster. This would be due to several reasons; the box is already made, transportation may only require 2 companies, no Customs, local communication and only 2 company’s management involved.
JIT is used by distributors and commercial users to eliminate their warehousing costs, among other things. They figure that due to the effectiveness of global trade, transport and communication, they can transfer their warehousing costs to the manufacturer.
The risk of global trade is like the risk of being stabbed by a butter knife - sure it will hurt but it won’t cut your heart. JIT is a sharp hunting knife - now the injury can kill you. In 1918 the risk of being ‘stabbed’ didn’t exist to a meaningful extent.
I agree that family going to family in the country is generally reasonable. I also agree with others that refugees in the countryside without a location or supplies is a dumb idea by planners.
ssol — can you tell me what planners are planning to send refugees to the countryside without a location or supplies? This is the first I’ve heard of that as an official plan! Wow, that’s crazy! Where did you read about that?
I don’t think they have bought enough supplies for the flu sites they plan in my town, ACM, (and everyone thinks the SNS is going to meet every municipalities’ needs simlutaneously for extended periods of time? that was not what it was designed for)
this is a bit interesting … go to Background; the 2000, TOPOFF excercise, see by the third day ect (my computer is being slow and I should be out the door right now anyway, or I’d snag you the quotes I want)
My locals have said nothing to the town so it was never budgeted for: state and feds said they can’t pay for everything; what supplies do we have ready? They are planning for a 1968 and will just say, uh-oh!, and hope the public doesn’t know there was plenty of scientific reasons to prep for true worst-case.
FWIW, I am a city dweller, and they’d have to drag me kicking and screaming to some country compound. Utterly ridiculous.
I love the country, and have lived in the boondocks. It’s great. But there is little infrastructure to service the current populace, let alone an influx.
Also, in my limited experience, this idealization of ‘country life’ is a bit over the top. Most farmers have to have a second (or third!) source of income. Most non-farm country families subsist on meager incomes from local companies which many times exploit them (where else are you gonna get a job?)
The other side of ‘country life’ has also been mentioned; that is the wealthy executive who wouldn’t know corn from sorghum but commutes (perhaps has his own personal hangar?) to the city job. On the lower end of that scale are those who drive hours each day to and from work to enjoy the relative comfort of living in the sticks and providing their families with that lifestyle.
I have no problems with this, and more power to ya. But you won’t find me sitting at the end of your driveway hoping to find care and feeding. I’ll tough it out where I am, thank you very much.
Should the unthinkable happen and the ‘civilization buster’ occur, all bets are off. But meantime, let’s revive those For a City Dweller/Apartment Prepper threads.
“The Gods of the Copybook Headings with Fire and Slaughter Return” -Kipling.
Keep in mind that Kipling wrote this in 1919. He knew whereof he spoke.
Sp — just to be clear — I’m trying to be sure I understand —
There is NO plan anywhere for any city to mass evacuate its citizens to tent cities in the countryside in the event of a pandemic. NO CITY is planning on mass evacuating its citizens to people’s doorsteps.
NO CITY is planning this.
(Am I right? I wasn’t able to access the webinar at the start of the thread, so correct me if I am wrong.)
So any argument discussing such a mass evacuation is kind of pointless, because such plans aren’t being made.
And what is a copybook heading?
LMWatBullRun – at 09:33 Who was it - Was it you? - who said many moons ago “Yes. I read Kipling. I’m one of THOSE people.” Actually, now that I think of it, it may have been on another (non-flu) site. Still, bears repeating.
I, also, am one of “those” people. :)
Average Concerned Mom – at 09:39 “what is a copybook heading”
find it here: http://tinyurl.com/y26jln
they were those proverbs and maxiums in the old grade readers (UK) from which kids practiced penmanship. (think McGuffy readers)
ANON-YYZ – at 14:34
I think it’s a cop out by TPTB, an evasion of responsibility to deal with the problem, a fear of riots and social unrest.
Exactly that. How can anyone think the risk of riots and social unrest would be lower if you jam 10 million people into tent cities out in some pasture ?
My sister lives in Galvaston, and spent way too long in traffic while evacuating Rita. The experience turned her into a serious prepper. How serious? This year my early christmas present was Walton’s 11 case one year supply. The card she sent said that she loves me _so_ much that she is planning on coming to visit the next time something happens and wanted to make sure I had something to eat while she finished all the venison in my freezer! She sent the same gift and card to each of our brothers. (rural Colorado, suburban Chicago, and suburban Atlanta)
It’s cheap insurance to make sure she’s welcome, even though she knows she’d be welcome anyway.
After reading www.frfrogspad.com/disastr.htm, I decided to lower my planned standard of living in order to prep for many more people.
Sahara – at 17:48 — Well, that’s one way to approach the problem. However, I highly doubt that the site of children dying of cold or dehydration along a closed highway is going to make the shooter feel that he or she made the right decision.
Survival isn’t about the niceties of the modern world, it’s cold, brutal, and selfish. I’ll protect my children with my life or that of any other(s) without a second thought.
a’Akova – at 13:25
coz when TSHTF TPTB will be in their country estate with a private landing strip and a hangar. It’s no longer their problem. It’s ours.
DennisC – at 17:56
There is a reason that most small family farms are going away- big farming techniques are more efficent.
This ‘efficiency’ exists only in terms of human effort applied. Large amounts of acreage can be farmed by a small number of people only if huge amounts of petroleum and natural gas are used to agument that human energy.
Small, unmechanized farms where the work is done by people or animals is much more efficent in terms of energy in to energy out.
a’Akova – at 16:10
The idea of efficiency may mean different things in different contexts. Here since it is for a short term (few years) disaster the concept of long-term sustainable methods is not what I was referring to. Notice that most third world countries are not food self-sufficient. During a pandemic they may have serious problems getting enough food and especially high quality protein (since most rely heavily on chickens). It is the energy intensive methods of the US farming that supplies about 25% of the world’s food. Yes it needs more fuel and chemicals and produces more pollution but it does allow many around the world to survive.
Notice that US farms with about 0.3% of the world’s farm labor force produced about 25% of the world’s food and half of the world’s grains exports.
Remember we are talking about a world wide pandemic. Some here may think of only evacuating major US cities to rural areas but what about other countries? For each acre of rural farm land an US city dweller would camp on, it would take an acre of the world’s most productive land out of production and about 5 people in the world would have to go hungry.
As it is, New England has lost about 50% of its best acreage that was available in 1920. Florida has lost most of its high quality farmland already. There is no “rural” farmland to which a FL person could evacuate. How much fuel would it take to evacuate all the cities of FL to “rural” land and how many tractors and acres could that farm? How do you calculate the efficiency of that? I don’t see that a person that had never “hoed a row” will produce anywhere near the yields of those that have experience. Not to mention the lag time between planting and harvesting and what about weather hazards to crops?
A free market type person would tell you that energy and money could be placed on equivalent terms. If it were more efficient for everyone to have their own garden- more people would have them. If individual small personal farms were able to sustain a family, then people would not be going hungry in Ethiopia.
We must stop thinking in terms of just our city or country and think globally. Where would you advise people in say Cairo to evacuate to and how would they farm? What about the people in New Deli or Addis Ababa? Do you think that the 3 million people of Addis Ababa will find a reasonable place to farm even when many of the 70 million people in Ethiopia go hungry now?
People (all people) would do better if they and their communities would prepare now for disasters.
Prepping Gal at 01:00 -
“It’s not my job to save the world.”
Amen, sista!!!
“It’s not my job to save the world.”
Yes, But it is my job not to put others in the world at risk from my actions.
Thank you DennisC! That was an excellent analysis of the problem that we would face if we evacuated the large cities, voluntarily or otherwise. I know it’s only one side of the picture, but you presented that side very well.
Our grain supplies are dwindling right now. That is common knowledge. If a pandemic happens and we “take over” farmland for tent cities we may solve an immediate problem but create something worse to deal with later. If “later” happens after the pandemic we can probably cope, but if it happens during the pandemic we’ll be in worse shape than ever.
If we take up X acres of farmland and build refugee camps, that land will not be available for use as farm land for a period of time. First there is the garbage issue, but what about the fecal contamination problems if latrines are not ample and fit to be used? Now we are caught in a trap: We either use a lot of acres to keep population density down or we cram people into a smaller space and increase damage to the land. If we need every acre right now for feeding the world, how can we afford to lose any land at all for any length of time?
I’m all for people moving out to more rural space if they have the ability. I’m expecting to have relatives from towns and cities come out to stay with me. But I also recognize that not everyone will feel so inclined to do so, particularly if it threatens their own food supply. My best advice is to plan ahead and make sure that the rural friend/relative knows that you’ll be wanting a place to stay.
I would remain in my house in the suburbs if I wasn’t fairly certain that the entire economy, and along with it, the entire infrastructure, will not survive in the event of a severe pandemic. I am fortunate to have rural, farm based roots, and family who never left for the big city.
If the CFR is high enough, I will be SIP in a very tiny town comprised of a few dozen homes and a combination gas station/post office window/small grocery store just off a main freeway about an hour from a small city.
There is one offramp and one onramp. You can be sure that that offramp will be heavily barricaded, and all of the houses heavily armed. I will be more worried about the unprepped neighbors in those few dozen homes than hordes of desperate evacuees.
I think we’ll leave the onramp open long enough for the unprepped neighbors clean out the grocery store, gas up and flee to the city in search of food and water.
The key to everything is logistics, as it always was. If the modern logistics system fails, as it will in a major pandemic, then the safest solution for you is to revert to the logistics systems that existed pre about 1950.
Now today’s logistics are built on JIT deliveries. I’m not sure how it works in the U.S., but I get year round tomatos, avocados, fruit, potatos. etc, a lot of which comes from farmas 1000 miles North of here (Southern Hemisphere, I guess yours comes from Florida or wherever) all of these long distance sources are going to disappear because of the finding drivers to drive the trucks and the availability of fuel. In addition no sane Government is going to allow traffic to flow from an infected area into an uninfected area.
Now being an old Walrus, I can vaguely recall what some of this logistics was like. For a start every region had an abbatoir for killing beef, sheep, pigs etc. Thery weren’t sent to the big cities to be killed and then return as processed meat. Same with fruit, vegetables, grain etc. There were distinct local specialities and seasonal foods, and much less variety.
There was also much more regional trade, not the “hub and spoke” model we see so much now. In fact the “hub and spoke” model is the worst possible for disease spread when the hub gets infected. You went to XX for timber and YY for meat and ZZ for grain. There were also no Wal Marts, there were smaller stores and shops scattered within easy driving or walking distance of where people lived. A lot of Australian communities generated their own power (The diesel was stopped every night at 10.00pm and restarted at 6.00am). The towns were generally pretty self sufficient since travel was expensive, difficult and slow.
If you live in a small town or regional centre it might make sense to see how the community functioned in the early 50′s or earlier. What was grown? Why? Where was it sent? How did people live from week to week? There might still be facilities or infrastructure you can resurrect in an emergency.
As for people evacuating to their country retreats, this is going to be a very mixed subject. I guess if you are very well prepared and have very strong connections and plenty to offer to the area you plan to stay, and you get there early enough, you should be fine.
If, on the other hand, you plan to visit your fashionable resort location, and play golf, ski or surf till the emergency is over, I think you are going to be in for a very large and perhaps fatal, shock.
I would also avoid the obvious stupidities that people will no doubt attempt. These include sending kids away to camp, deciding to go “back to nature” yourself unless you are a highly experienced and well equipped outdoorsman, and taking your ginat Winnebago motorhome anywhere at all and expecting to get fuel and food.
Under The Radar – at 17:53 gas station/post office window/small grocery store
That is sounds like the “big city” near me: one grocery store (with frozen meat), a post office and one gas station and 100+ miles to the nearest interstate.
I hope no city dwellers think I have anything against them leaving- I would. I would have a prepared place that would welcome me. However, I would do it now and prepare now. I would sell the BMW and get a 4wheel drive pickup. I would stop buying $4 Starbuck coffee and buy seeds. I would stop going to the theaters and buy a DVD sit with the kids on the sofa and pop corn at the fireplace. I say that because that is the path I picked a few years back. However, just like I would be lost and out of place in NYC, newbie rural folk would be lost here. It takes a while to “fit in” and find out the best way to survive anywhere. (If you don’t believe me, ask my German foreign exchange student).
If cities want to have evacuation plans, that is their call. But I don’t think it should be their prime focus. First, care and take care of you own citizens. Protect them. Call them to prepare. Stock reserves for critical functions of water treatment and medical supplies. Cities will still need body disposal plans even if most leave. Have plans for drive through tamiflu dispensing. Buy ventilators. Form community organization to help the widows and orphans. ….
Please Read!
Cities are *NOT* planning to evacuate residents into rural areas if/when we have pandemic flu. The webcast we’re talking about isn’t about city officials or planners evacuating people.
It’s about individual families – Dad, Mom, 2.3 kids, and Spot – deciding that they don’t want to be in the city during pandemic flu (or other emergencies.) When individuals make the decision to leave a city (many times against the advice of emergency managers) it is called “self evacuation” but it just means that they get in the car and drive.
The report and webcast was produced to give rural areas, close to a large city, an idea of what they might expect during an emergency. It covered how many people would probably decide to leave the city during different types of emergencies, if they would have a destination in mind, where they would go, how far they would plan to travel, etc.
I can’t find a copy of the webcast, but they said the report should be available in a few weeks.
I remember that a large number of people said that they would leave. Many would leave even against advice of emergency managers. The impulse to get out of the city was strong.
So people may decide to leave cities, but, at least at this time, I haven’t heard of any cities that are planning to send people into rural areas during pandemic flu.
Many interesting comments on this thread. Here’s a couple more, for what they’re worth.
I was born in 1950, lived at that time in southern New England. I remeber being a small kid and going to apple orchards to get fresh cider, picking strawberries, stopping at local farmstands for tomatoes, peaches, and other produce, all locally grown. There were many orchards and potato farms. Now? All gone, turf farms and subdivions. The destruction of good bottom land and other arable land is a crime against nature that will have to be paid for.
The other day I went to town (an hour away, a town of about 26,000) and the small produce wholesaler is now out of business. It was a smallish operation, dealing in local produce (this is a rural area with farms) that distributed to local grocery stores. Now everything is giant chain retailers with produce from far away delivered by huge trucks coming up I 5. In the last few years, so much good pasturage has been converted to housing tracts and more shopping centers with such establishments as tanning salons, more McJunkfoods, liquor stores, and Blockbusters.
Used to be that teenagers could work in the fields and learn good work habits with some hard work in the summer. Not anymore. It seems expected that teenagers and those in their early 20s are meant to party hearty, sleep until noon, and never lift a finger. [I realize I’m generalizing here, of course not everyone is like this. But it is a cultural trend.] Where is personal responsibility? In previous generations, people often married in their late teens and early 20s and shouldered adult responsibilites well. Now we’ve got millions of overage (and overfed) “children”.
One thing I’ve seen on this and other forums (occasionally) is people saying things such as “I could never spend days cooped up in my house” or “my kids will never stay home, they’ll have to go the mall”. When I was a kid we used to sing for fun, listen to my father tell tall tales, play outside, make our own games. So many people don’t know how to entertain or amuse themselves, they need constant stimulation from some kind of electronic device.
Add to that - how many people daily ingest either liquor, legal mind altering substances (prozac being one of the most widely prescribed “medicines”), or illegal drugs? What will happen to them (and those around them) when their dealer/pharmacist can no longer supply their drug of choice? How will they face disruption, illness or death and be able to make decisions with a cool head?
How many people will be able to tolerate living in extreme or even moderate difficulty without coming “unglued” mentally and blaming everyone else? How many people will tighten their belts and say: “Well, I’ll manage to live on rice and beans for a few weeks/months, wash my own clothes, take cold bucket baths, use a trench latrine, haul water, take care of sick people, and amuse myself without TV. I’ll manage.”
The people who were housed at the super dome trashed it in 24 hours. It was unlivable for humans. Houston is sorry it took in refuges from NO. They want them to go home. Sadly, it seems that most city dwellers don’t have a clue about respect for the land and others peoples property. When you go to the beach, you can easitly spot the rural folks from the common city dweller. Sorry if I offend some city dwellers that do not fall into the common catagory. It just seems like they are used to someone cleaning up after them. They have no shame to pick up thier chairs and leave all their trash right there. IMHO tent cities will be trashed, looted, unsafe in 2 days just like the super dome. I hope that TPTB read this thread and realize what a dumb idea it would be. The summer camp thing….Like I’m going to let the gov separate my child from me during a pandemic. It is scary some of the ideas that come up. The more I hear of plans that might be forced on me, the more I hope everything is kept quite, so I can make my own plans. I don’t like any of the insane ideas and plans so far. I think I am better off if the gov does not make to many plans. Geeezzz Please don’t help me. LOL
aurora — THANK YOU for your post pointing out what the webcast was actually about.
I completely agree with you.
I can’t understand why people on this thread keep thinking and talking about these mythical tent cities some mythical cities are planning to set up on hypothetical farm land, or about some hypothetical government plan to force people to relocate.
Meanwhile, there are some actual, real problems that are very likely to occur during a pandemic year or 2 year period that should be planned for, and apparently, on the webinar, people ARE thinking and talking about them. That is good to know. It would be nice to have an actual discussion about those points.
BeWell at 03:40, my sentiments exactly. I live in the Midwest in a rather large suburban city, and every day I see farm fields and woods replaced by cookie-cutter houses and strip malls. It seems my local government is hell-bent on paving over every single inch of dirt in this place. Where I used to routinely see flocks of wild turkey and the occasional deer, now all I see is concrete. This really saddens me.
I’m also amused (worried, really) by those who can’t understand what we find so attractive about staying at our off-grid cabin. Our TV screen is a glass patio door that looks out over our meadow onto the mountains. Our entertainment consists of hikes and working around the place. We read, play dominoes, draw, and listen to old-time radio shows. We are perfectly content there, but I know that many of our friends would be insane after only a day or two of such a mundane life.
I’ve seen first hand (after an ice storm here which we had 3 days of advance warning for, and which disrupted power for a good portion of the city for weeks) just how poorly people behave when their comfy little apple cart is upset. It seems that even 24 hours without all the creature comforts is too much to bear for many. They are quite literally lost and have no concept whatsoever of how to feed, entertain, or take care of themselves. Many grown adults, who have responsible jobs and seem to get by just fine in “normal” times, are reduced to whimpering 3 year olds who can’t do anything for themselves. This frightens me, really more than pandemic flu, nuclear bomb, natural disaster, etc.
I don’t think there’ll be any mass exodus of people to the countryside, for pandemic flu or any other disaster. Most people are too soft and coddled to camp out for even one night, don’t have even the most rudimentary of camping equipment (hell, most don’t even own a working flashlight!), and (I believe, anyway) that they have the foresight to know that they couldn’t make it for even a few days out in the “wilds”. September 11, 2001 made people think about this subject rather deeply. While the first instinct may be to head for the hills, I think that most everyone at that point realized all the reasons that wouldn’t work.
aurora — on the webcast, did they actually discuss pandemic flu? Or were they discussing events like an earthquake, a hurricane, a terrorist attack?
I think people leaving for a pandemic year (or longer) is completely different from those events which occur for a discrete period of time.
During a pandemic year (or longer) I think the term more likely to be used is MIGRATION versus EVACUATION. A slow, drawn out voluntary movement of people (not something that happens in a 24 to 48 hour period, clogging the highways) from cities to the surrounding ares, INVITED by their families into their homes, perhaps after a “first wave” as people regroup, adapt to a new reality, and rethink how they will live (and work or not — as their jobs may no longer exist) (And they may not be able to pay the rent)-- as people have died and the remaning family members want to come together and help each other out.
Key words being INVITED — living in HOUSES — not in TENTS taking up FARMLAND — in HOUSES in ROOMS, maybe on the FLOOR maybe doubling up with FAMILY MEMBERS but INVITED. MIGRATION of people wanting to leave the cities, which have no land for anything useful.
I have not commented on this thread, but have been following it. The webcast mentioned in the first post does not address panflu specifically, but rather large scale disasters effecting those counties in New York. The info must be placed in the correct context. In my opinion, much of what they discussed would not apply during a severe pandemic. At least not in the beginning.
In the beginning, very few people will be compelled to do much of anything, rural or city, until they see deaths occuring in the next state or nearby big city. It will be viewed like the seasonal flu. “It is in state X, not here yet, not to worry.” Most would not be aware it was likely already in their midst.
Later, in the cities, I can see people trying to pick up and leave when they hear it has been found in their city, but by then travel restrictions will have already been set up. Movement and travel will not be allowed at this point.
A Big If What follows is my take on how things will fall out if a severe pandemic effects availability of food and water.
Even later, movement of people will only occur when desperation and panic has peaked, and due to illness check points fallen. Hopefully things do not reach this state of affairs, but this will occur if the food has almost run out while the people have been sheltering in place, or the electricity or water has stopped. Most will hunker down at home as long as they can, but when they hear check point A is down, they will make a run for it, thinking things have to be better at Aunt Jane’s in rural town X. When this occurs, there will be a flood of desperate refugees.
In the rural communities, the check points will still be intact. There will be desperation and panic here too, but under some control and leadership. Each town will have barricades and the folks manning them will be armed and very afraid at this point. There will be no help for the city folks if they make it that far. They will be turned back.
The interstates will remain closed and barricaded. Most of the smaller roads around big cities pass through multiple smaller cities for 25–50 miles out. The bedroom communities. They will be one barricade after another. Most refugees will run out of gas going from one barricade to another trying to find a way out. Ultimately they will be on foot. This 25–50 mile radius around a large city will be full of refugees in various stages of distress. Most will eventually walk back home to the large city. Some will walk past the barricaded towns to points beyond where there will be even more barricaded towns.
At this point, either aid is provided by state or federal governments or mass numbers of people begin starving.
Meanwhile, the barricaded towns near the big city will also be running out of supplies or will have fallen victim to the disease. This begins a domino effect outwards from all the big cities in the world. As desperation and panic drives people outward, it spreads the disease and places a greater strain upon the rural communities. Only in the most rural areas will there still be some semblance of order and continuity. Disease will come there also, but starvation and death from infrastructure collapse will be found primarily only within the 50 mile radius of the larger cities.
Ultimately, it is going to be of supreme importance for the state and federal government to maintain the availability of food and water in the big cities. If not, chaos and death from infrastructure collapse (not to mention disease) will spread like a cancer around the world.
Okieman - I shudder when I read what you have written because I am as close to certain as can be that this is exactly how it might happen, not just in the US, but elsewhere. Your post should be given to TPTB.
As for those who think that governments would - or would not - displace populations, here is one very well buried tiny sentence, for phase 6, in the French Pandemic Plan, from its English version posted in the United Nations Development Group dated 6 January 2006, page 50, paragraph 4 headed “bar08″:
“Depending on the situation, encouragement or restriction of movements to make towns
less crowded and/or of interregional movements.”
English Version of the French Governmental Plan
Frenchie Girl— I’m just pointing out — “encouragment…of movements to make towns less crowded” does not mean “Mass evacuation of the cities to tents in the farmland” which seems to be the way people here are taking it.
It could simply mean, “encouraging those in the cities to move in with family members elsewhere if thay have the means to do so.”
EVEN that —however — if it were long term — would put stress on utilities in the more suburban and rural areas. More people = more sewage = more water use = more electricity usage. (I’m imagining).
The significant thing I take away from the study on mass evacuation is that, especially when there is an absence of information, a certain percentage of folks who perceive their risk to be high where they are will take off in any direction, prepared or not, hoping their chances will be better somewhere else. The study does not address how people would calculate relative risks in a pandemic, which is not merely a local or regional event one can escape. (It was instead focused on events such as natural disasters, chemical spills, and acts of terrorism.) In a pandemic, it seems to me that, in the end, people will base their decisions to attempt evacuation not on their risk of infection, but on the certainty that they will starve or die of thirst where they are. So, planned or not, we’re going to see movement. I would think that we’ll see two waves - a smaller one when the news of a pandemic breaks (among those who have prepared to bug out and have someplace to go) and another extended exodus as the situation in urban areas becomes increasingly dire and people ever more desperate.
I’m trying to calculate how long this initial period of social chaos will last, how long it will be before the resources of the unprepared run out and infrastructure collapse takes its initial terrible toll. Whatever the CFR of the first wave, that’s when we will see the highest number of casualties, the price we will pay for our JIT delivery system and for globalization. We’ll pay once more, a little farther down the road, because we are unprepared, as a population, to be self-sufficient when restocking at the grocery store and the hardware store is no longer possible, and we have no money besides. Whether I and my children survive depends first on whether we escape the virus, second on whether we can defend or conceal what we have, and third on whether we can support ourselves on our half acre situated in a cul de sac at the back of a modest subdivision.
How far would city people get into the country if they don’t have vehicles or don’t have a way to fill up their gas tanks if they do have vehicles? Think about it. In a situation where an entire city is supposedly starving and without water, I doubt there will be routine deliveries of gas to gas stations. There’s even less likelihood of gas deliveries to rural gas stations.
c3jmp – at 03:13
“find govt (public) forest”
Sounds good and reasonable. However, don’t be surprised to discover “you” aren’t the only one there in this isolated treasure trove.
Irene - you are right in that there will be a limited window for long-distance evacuation in most cases. Fuel will likely be available for a time, however, unless supplies are quickly and intentionally dried up and diverted for essential uses.
a bit off topic, but a question I keep returning to now that I am prepped to leave my home and sip with family.
what will happen to the things I leave behind? If I have time to think before leaving, how can I leave my home with the greatest chance of finding it still intact “afterwards”? Should I take care to not leave personal financial info behind? Leave a note on the door saying what? Hardly want to advertise where I am. “No food left” but come on in and help yourself to anything else because I’m obviously gone and no one is watching out?
Average Concerned Mom – at 12:18 - Yes of course, you are quite right. Yet, I’d never trust the French authorities that this “encouragement” would not be army-enforced, towards army-tent-cities, the same sort as for refugee camps in Africa. By the way, political refugees here can be detained in “camps” up to the time of the sorting out of their papers - I knew one who spent two years in a prison like barracks. Very ironically, I remember our country, unfortunately, has had experience in mass population moves…
Also, one has to remember that France does have many borders (so do the US). I was talking about it this afternoon with a friend, since I live within meters of the Swiss border. We both agreed that if the authorities wanted to introduce a no-man’s land zone between the border and a few streets South, so as to patrol more effectively to prevent people entering France, they’d have to move me and my neighbours. To where?
Wonderer - I’ll be surprised if there’s anything of value left when you come back. Preposition everything you can and be prepared to start over with the rest.
Wonderer - I agree with InKy, but when you come back, assuming the pandemic is as deathly as we fear, you will have a wide choice of refurnishing your house with dirt cheap furniture of people who passed on, even possibly free furniture, possibly even nicer than what you already own. If you’re good at finding things, you’ll be able to get free paint and white spirit, free wallpaper, free tiles, free… whatever you need to rebuild your home.
During the mass evacuation of the gulf coast - in our local community there were people using guns to get into the front of the gas lines. No police were around to enforce any laws they were too busy trying to open the interstate and keeping people from exiting the interstate into the local communities because there were no “provisions” for anyone here.
I truly believe that anyone who has not left their areas very early - maybe a week or more before tshtf doesn’t have a hope of getting anywhere. We live 12 miles from the nearest town - it was impossible to get out of our neighborhood toward any town or from town until after the hurricane.
We were without power for approx 3 wks - had a mass cooking of freezer food in the neighborhood - our business became home to several employees and their families because it at least had intermittant power. People were hot, hungry, scared and had nothing to help themselves change their circumstances.
If the government does not have the people prepare themselves to SIP - if for no other reason than to avoid starvation I believe we are looking at more death from that possibility than from the virus itself.
EnoughAlready – at 13:44
LOL.. no doubt.
I will review the webcast later, but cannot fathom how any governmental body (bodies) would have it together enough to plan and correctly execute such as massive undertaking.
And if they can’t do it right, then don’t do it at all.
FirstTimeAnon – at 14:59 -nothing beats the first hand experiences of someone who has ‘been there’.
We evacuated early when Rita was barreling straight for us as the largest Cat 5 ever in the Gulf. We beat the throngs and mass exodus… only to discover the block of hotel rooms we had reserved had been occupied. What we “learned” was that during an emergency, they didn’t have to honor reservations. In fact, something superceded that during an emergency. We were left stranded with a bunch of vulnerable children and my 82 year old mother (who had Alzheimer’s and was in a wheelchair.) We went to plan B… a remote National Forest where we go fishing. Eventually, the other people evacuating and found themselves stranded turned up there, too. It was a nightmare. Those small rural towns were overwhelmed. Even Lufkin was overwhelmed. Then, we got “trapped” there for a week and couldn’t get home.
The evacuee’s for the most part were unbelievably “unprepared.” Living in a hurricane prone region, you know to prepare during hurricane season. It was amazing the vast number of people who didn’t even have 3 days worth of supplies. When FEMA showed up, they still complained. They griped mostly about the inconvience of it all. Generally speaking, it isn’t up to the government. It is a personal responsiblity. Getting out early, prior to mandatory evac is just good thinking. Wearing practical clothing and shoes is just good thinking. Bringing diapers and wipes for a baby is just good thinking. What I witnessed and experienced was blood curdling. I felt so sorry for the locals whose lives were disrupted not only during the evac, but for a time afterwards. The trash strewn alone was disgraceful.
Irene,
You make a very important point. How far will they get? In order to get anywhere rural, city dwellers must pass through the suburbs. In fact, they can easily walk to the suburbs in a matter of hours. Undoubtedly, millions of unprepared urban refugees will have a profoundly negative impact on millions of unprepared suburbanites.
I do not envision city folks surviving in rural areas unless they can successfully displace the rural residents. Long-term camping requires a huge amount of preparation, and you would need your own food and camping supplies. No, it would be far simpler to invade the suburbs and settle there.
EnoughAlready – at 15:16
re: “It is a personal responsiblity.”
Absolutely. IMHO-and this is a very non-PC thing to say- but I have noticed for a long time an attitude of ‘entitlement’ from a huge number of people.
If adults choose not to prepare that’s one thing, but if they chose not to prepare and have dependent(s) then it can create huge problems during an emergency.
Huge problems for the rest of us.
Wonderer – at 14:02
be sure to take your deed with you - in the aftermath with all the govt and bank services shutdown and computers offline, possession will figure highly in who owns what, absent proof otherwise.
I’ve been away from the keyboard for a couple of days. So forgive me if I need some time to catch up. After a bit of fast reading, I’m puzzled. Unpacking cities would not work unless planned for. But there would be some tension towards that happening. So my idea is, what would “prepping” mean in that scenario? Would a “displacement information kit” let at least a number of people leave the cities, and thereby gaining a healthier environment for themselves while reducing pressure on cities? Would “emergency agriculture” be a doable thing (IF we get ready for it) and maybe even more beneficial than stocking up for months on end? After all, those newly arrived to the rural places might be able to grow food for those still in town. In some places, emergency agriculture might mean that food grows continuously, as opposed to a stock that only gets smaller with time.
Maybe this aproach has been dealt with. I’ll catch up and post more later or tomorrow.
EnoughAlready – at 15:16
not far from us, in addition to govt forest, is a spec op training facility that has had military folks rotating through for decades. i have no doubt there will be folks in the woods. my recommendation for city folk would be to leave the attitude at home with the golf clubs.
lugon,
Just to bring you up to speed on this, you can not unpack the cities. Logistically, it can not work. I do not mean to put too fine a point on this, but think of some of the key factors that would conspire to defeat any urban evacuation plan: fear, defiance, ignorance, and physical infirmity. You have both condo dwellers and apartment dwellers. You have both intellectuals and illiterates. Honest citizens and convicted criminals. The hale & hearty and the marginally ambulatory. The government can not force people at gun-point to leave their homes, yet it is unrealistic to believe that those who remain in apartments and condos will have the resources to SIP. Can you imagine trying to survive on the 24th floor without electricity? Early on, you may walk down to get something from a store, but you will never get back up. You will be mugged in the dark of the stairway. No, the cities are in big, big trouble.
BeWell You are right on! I cant imagine some of the spoiled whiny brats that this society has produced coping well at all with any kind of adversity. A crisis to them is getting to Blockbuster after all the copies of the lastest movie have been rented. What percentage of the population do you think has even played a board game? Scrabble anyone.
I live in an area that plays host to hordes of tourists during the summer and in the fall the city “hunters” decend upon us. I fully expect that if a pandemic occurs many of them will head up here to there camping spot/cabin. Most wont bring supplies with them. If it happens in the winter some will freeze to death, some will starve, some will injure themselves, and some will be shot by the locals protecting thier families. Some will end up with family - more power to them, I wouldnt stay in a city for love nor money during a crisis if I had a place to go. The key is having a place to go that is established. A hunting cabin or an RV spot doesnt cut it.
One issue that may be more of a determinate related to people voluntarily trying to escape cities then even the flu itself will be social unrest. If people are running around the city using the flu as a reason for looting, breaking and burning things, and rioting, that will cause people to flee who may not have a good plan for evacuation because they did not plan to leave.
As I was reading this thread, I was wondering to myself if the tent cities would be used for people who try to run and have nowhere else to go. What do you realistically do for people who run out of gas, have nowhere to go, and have no food/supplies? Do you just let them wander? What is the likelihood that suburban/rural people will take these strangers into their homes should they come knocking (and they will - they will have no choice but to ask for help for themselves and their families). They will be refused because they may be infected or could potentially be dangerous.
The only viable option may be to put these people together into a “tent city” in order to try to assist them rather than let them starve or freeze to death or have them begin to do distructive things out of desperation (stealing, breaking into houses/businesses, etc).
FirstTimeAnon – at 14:59 and EnoughAlready – at 15:16,
I worked for a short time with disaster relief in both Texas and Louisiana after Hurricane Rita. The stories told by those in the rural towns where the big city folks passed through while evacuating are not stories of calm and orderly movement.
One rural resident I spoke to described people brandishing guns to force their way through traffic. Two men were gunned down a mile or two from her home. There were dozens of people sitting in her front yard resting after running out of gas on the road. A baby died of medical complications a mile south of her house in the rural town she lived near.
In another small town one of the men spoke of watching family after family walk by after running out of gas. All tired, thirsty and scared. He said he had seen things he thought he would never see in this country.
Part of the reason there are so many fluwiki preppers from Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida is because these folks have either lived the evacuations, saw the evacuations or have heard stories from relatives about the evacuations. We had evacuees all the way up into Oklahoma for weeks.
Bad things can and do happen. A severe pandemic is the ultimate “bad thing”, and it is looking closer to happening, unfortunately.
The key is traveling with a planned and prepped goal BEFORE the gridlock. Thank goodness we have the opportunity to stay abreast of all this as much as possible due to the great efforts of all the watchdogs here and on the other great PF info websites. Thank you thank you thank you.
janetn and Sniffles,
You are both raising good points. Some well-trained people can live without solid walls for limited durations under ideal conditions, but camping will not work for the masses and tent cities will not work for anyone— especially in the northern US cities in January.
Sniffles – at 16:52
This is one of many good reasons why neighbors/neighborhoods need to prepare as individuals and as a group.
The Webcast doesn’t propose evacuation in case of a pandemic - the study described focused more on evacuation for natural disasters such as hurricanes, on chemical spills, and on terrorist attacks, situations where evacuations are sometimes called for. The results of the study, however, support the notion that some people may try to get out of the cities even if they are instructed to SIP, if they feel terribly vulnerable where they are. That’s not a huge surprise.
Then again, if people leave the cities to avoid infection associated with population density, and end up in tent cities, what has anybody gained?
Kim – at 07:26 and BeWell at 03:40
I’ve thought similar things as I watched good farm land being taken up by subdivisions and strip malls. On the other hand I haven’t heard a reasonable example of WHERE else all of those people are going to live. Here in the Portland, OR area, they are trying to force people into high density housing but not having a lot of success. This is also the kind of high density housing that assumes that our JIT society will continue.
It all boils down to “where do you put the people?” Do you make them live in apartment towers or small apartments above the shops that, it is assumed, they will work in and shop at?
I’m afraid that I haven’t come up with a good answer. All I can think is that the “population explosion” that we kept hearing about back in the 70′s really is happening, but just perhaps not in the form that we were told to expect.
“Bad things can and do happen. A severe pandemic is the ultimate “bad thing”, and it is looking closer to happening, unfortunately.”
The veneer of civilisation is very very thin. A bad pandemic will no doubt provide shining examples of charity, sacrifice and humanity, however it will also reveal the dark side - as Katrina and Rita did to a very limited extent.
I think its time to again make the point that it is not going to be indivduals that pull through the pandemic, but communities that will pull through. It is technically possible for a large city, even New York, to survive a pandemic intact, but it requires very great leadership, discipline, very thorough planning and preparation. This is needed to create a climate of trust and cooperation. If this trust and cooperation cannot be created, or is allowed to crack, then fear will creep in and that community is doomed.
What is going to be essential in creating that climate of trust and cooperation is good, credible, accurate information. Without that you have no hope.
As for sheltering in a remote cabin somewhere, I’m not sure its a good idea. People are very inquisitive, especially when they are starving. I plan to attach myself to a community in as remote a location as possible. In the past I’ve had a smallholding weekend style place, but I’m afraid it is too close to the city for comfort, and some of the deer hunters who frequent the area are not exactly very nice people (I’m sure there are nice hunters), just not here. If I sheltered there I would be besieged by city folk very quickly.
I have plans A,B,C and D. Varying from a simple SIP, to leaving on my yacht, to flying a light aircraft to somewhere else, but in all cases, I’m heading for what I know to be communities that are either self sufficient, or have the capacity to be self sufficient.
The worst part of this craziness is that all of these “city people” will be clueless about how to do anything in the country. We are working on being food, water and heat self sufficient. Can you imagine someone who is reliant on the government to provide for their every need, out where they would be expected to do something for themselves?…not that any one would really expect anything out of them. Frankly, even the welfare types around here burn wood and have a few animals out back. Referring to the comment about Katrina…NC has inherited some of those people. We have some of the “victims” sitting begging outside of the local Wal Mart. What about them? Those that choose to stay at the poverty level first of all believe the government will bail them out of almost anything if they scream loudly enough, second of all believe they have an entitlement to YOUR/MY money, third have no incentive to change their beliefs. I don’t mean to be nasty, we are very generous people who have done everything from foster care to adoption to volunteer work, but how do we as a concerned group of people change this ingrained mentality? Especially when they believe that it is someone elses job to ensure their welfare.
Let’s see how this goes. Nothing says “kill a thread” quite like Orlandopreppie. There were two guests on the webcast. #1 was from Northwest NY state and was talking about efforts to receive a lot of “refugees” in the event of a mass evacuation. Guest #2 was a PhD. from West Virginia University who conducted a study of 800 households in the Washington D.C. metro area inquiring about their evacuation plans and tendencies as a result of terrorist attacks including nuclear bomb, dirty bomb, and biological bomb. This is a small study but may be representative. His reason for this study was self-protection as they anticipate Morgantown/WV will be host to refugees. Pandemic flu was not mentioned at all.
Having lived in the area, and still have step-siblings and friends there, I was concerned enough to watch the whole thing. Frankly, it didn’t say anything any one of us didn’t already know or expect. Some will want to leave when told to stay…some will want to stay when told to leave. The outlying areas are trying to get points clarified for obvious reasons. My step-sister is in Alexandria but has a second home in a rural community about 2.5 hours from D.C., they have begun prepping very recently and with encouragement from my father and step-mother will probably have an early tipping point to evacuate…probably when others would say they are crazy to do so. Which, IMHO is exactly when they should evacuate.
My step-brother lives “rurally” about an hour north of D.C. on a 22 acre spread with a built in pool, wood burning stove, lots of storage, etc. but doesn’t believe anything will happen. Let me tell you, it’s frustrating being the “poor one” of the family and know this is coming when I watch those around me much better off and not doing a damn thing.
I live in a nice house in the suburbs with a good sized corner lot. I am prepping, have tried to talk to neighbors but feel it is a liability at this point, and have had no response from county officials. I truly think city survival is possible if one will give up the luxuries and do it. Remembering my 12th story studio apartment in Alexandria I believe I absolutely could have stored enough food and water to make it 4–6 months. Based on my experience with a 20 year friend this past summer up there…well let’s just say it was a great 20 year ride. I’ll pray for her and her family as they scavenge for food. I hope her son doesn’t end up back in prison.
Mass migration is not a good option. Moderate migration is, meaning people going to their bug-out houses and relatives that are prepared for them. IMHO I still think TPTB did a good enough job in saying “you’re on your own”, it’s the spoon-fed who seem to need well, spoon feeding. I don’t think anybody here falls into that category. How many times does the average bear need to be told to prepare?
Some months ago someone who seemed to have seen starvation first hand in third world countries posted that we didn’t seem to have any idea at all about the physical and mental impact starvation has on individuals. I wish I could find the post.
From what I recall the poster said that anyone who is starving quickly loses energy and becomes lethargic. I doubt anyone who has been suffering from the flu or anyone who is starving will be in any physical condition at all to be able to roam around the city or in the countryside.
AVanarts – at 17:32
The solution is villages. Smaller towns surrounded by open farmland and/or forests. Huge cities are the ruination of the planet, in many ways. There is so much that is against natural law that the repercussions are not going to be pretty.
Paving over arable land is a crime against wisdom. You cannot eat plastic, old McJunkfood’s wrappers, or DVDs. The necessities of life are what is important, not the so-called luxuries that in many ways really just damage the mind and body.
(The only reason the population of this country is what it is, is due to immigration (most undocumented). I will not say another word, other than the populations of many Europeans countries are also going down (also Japan), immigration taking up the slack.
There is enough for every man’s need, but not every man’s greed. So many people do not know how to take care of their basic needs at all. Read an article not long ago that most young women in the UK (some percentage or other) don’t know how to cook. At all. Nothing.
Homesteader,
I have camped, fished, hunted, and gardened for subsistence. Under the best of circumstances these are challenging activites, even for those who are prepared. Nobody from the city will be successful at this. In the face of rural survival failure, the folks from the city will resort to crime.
Dr Dave.. I agree!! I think of the girls at the high school in the next large town nearby. They wear belly shirts and have acrylic nails. Mentioning preparedness to them gets nothing but rolled eyes. The boys are no better. They don’t do chores or have much in the way of responsibilities. They play video games and have a photographic memory concerning the latest ball game. Ask them to dig in the dirt or carry firewood?? And yes, they probably would resort to looting, but after those resources are gone, then what?
I am sure it is possible to fill ones house with preps for a year or so, but how can anyone store grains etc.. longterm without attracting some sort of mold, bugs or rodents. To make it longer than that, people have to be able to replace those stocks by growing more. That means livestock and gardens. I suppose someone will counter with the idea of having MRE’s and canned food in every room of the house, but after about 6 months of monotonous eating they will get sick of it. Not only that, but the lack of fiber, vitamins etc… If history repeats itself, then someone should look up what happened to the wilderness explorers who thought canned food was sufficient for survival (Robert Scott et al). They didn’t survive, they died from vitamin imbalances. I can imagine the government deciding to ration food eventually, but if there are no supplies coming from overseas, and if people in processing and preserving plants are sick, caring for sick and/or dying, how can anyone expect this to be something that is will just pick up after a brief hiatus? Don’t we need to think that this will be a long term problem? Don’t we need to look at acquiring some skills to go along with our preps that will carry us over to the rebuilding phase?
It is all fine and dandy to watch the progression of this virus, but we have to look at how drastically our society has changed and how reliant on big box supermarkets and hardware stores we are. We don’t know how to make anything anymore. What we could be facing will be terrifying for those who have no idea how to fend for themselves.
I wonder if the gigantic dentention centers that have been built around the US (by Halliburton?) will serve as the tent cities speculated about on this thread. No good explanation has ever been offered for their construction. Desperate, starving people rounded up and basically imprisoned in an attempt to maintain order. Hopefully fed, but what will that matter? People might not die of starvation (but then again, they might), more likely die of disease, infected by being in close proximity to so many others.
BeWell – at 18:32
And where do you propose we find the land to do that? When you break up the cities into smaller towns and villages, there will be no land left to feed the people at our current population.
Homesteader,
Like my acquaintence from the big university hospital said to me, we might emerge from this pandemic and find ourselves in 19th century conditions. How many of us can adapt to that?
Our fundamental problem is that we may find ourselves in 19th century conditions without 19th century tools and skills.
InKy,
Yikes! Even if we had the tools and skills, we would certainly not have the culture. Where is the work ethic to labor from sunrise to sunset and to cope without modern utilities? Overseas, perhaps, but not in the U.S.A.
Okay, so who do you know that will be able to adapt to that? I don’t know many. As mentioned in other posts, we have talked to multiple people at church as well as principals at our schools etc.. and are given the look that indicates they believe we have left our brains in our other pants. So all this education these people have and for all of the nice homes, nice cars and wool suits, how much of that will serve them in the long run? Not much.
Not only that, if the pandemic doesn’t do us in, we might be looking at some dramatic changes that may come with the worldwide instability and the economic changes….Maybe we should take some animal husbandry classes or learn how to save seeds from open pollinated varieties of vegetables, or maybe some of us need to learn how to heat with wood and cook on a wood cookstove. Think of that. If we are looking at interruption in electricity and food, what about heat? I lived in a state about 15 years ago that had a snow storm that wiped out the electricity in an entire region. That meant no heat. Many people died in their own homes.
There seems to be a lot of disdain for people who are planning to evacuate to their country homes. Some of us will be totally self-sufficient by having the supplies they need and already know how to live off the land, by fishing, hunting, and gardening. Why are people assuming that people who are evacuating are going to be knocking on people’s doors. I know I do not want to be in contact with anyone. By they way don’t come knocking on my door either. We are prepared for that too.
I have seen my great uncle plow a garden with a mule. I could learn this. But I have no plow, no harness, and no mule. I could learn to spin, but I have no spinning wheel. I know how to weave, but I have no loom. I can sew clothes, but I will have no new cloth because I have no loom and no spinning wheel. I can wash my clothes by hand, but when my supply of soap runs out, I will have to make my own. I’d better have saved every last drop of oil I’ve ever used for cooking or else prepare to go kill an animal and render its fat along with lye I’ve procured by straining water through ashes from my cooking fires.
In a worst case scenario (the sort that appears likely), we won’t be thrust back into the 19th century. We may be living much more primitive lives than that for a time. I would imagine that we will rediscover that lost work ethic. You never know what you can do until you have to. After all, what’s the alternative?
Homesteader,
This is my dilemma: when the pandemic draws to a close, where will we emerge? What decade of which century?
Geez, I heated with wood and ate homemade sourdough bread long enough to know that I can do it, but would really rather not go back to that. Having grown my own food and only eaten what I could make really makes me appreciate what I consider the crazyness of those who say people should go with tent cities and villages and “grow their own.” I know from experience just how much freakin’ work that is.
Let’s see, worst case senario. The grid is down, the population is WAY down. We only have the electricity that we can make ourselves. We will need to learn what the current “off grid” folks already know.
We will also have an abundant supply of 21st Century computers along with radios and other communication equipment. It won’t be long before at least some find a way to communicate. There will also still be educational software that can be used in the homeschooling of the next generation.
With the lower population, there will be less stress on the environment and, hopefully, people will cooperate enough to “kickstart” society.
Fuel will certainly be a problem, but cars and trucks will be in plentiful supply. If fuel can be obtained (manufactured) then cars can run for several (perhaps many) years on the lubricants, tires, etc. that are currently available. This will certainly aid in restarting trade, even if it is only at the barter level. The cars and trucks that are abandoned along the highways will also be a source of alternators that can be used to generate small amounts of electricity when attached to a windmill or installed in a small hydro plant.
Come on, it will be bad, but there are too many smart people who will survive this to let things go back to the 19th century.
I won’t even get started on the farmers and other country folk who I know or have known who would most likely say something like “Oh crap” and get on with their lives even if it is in a somewhat more primative fashion. The big concern there would be getting fuel for the tractor or relearning how to plow by horse power.
AVanarts - I was thinking of the long season of the pandemic itself. Recovery will follow, as you envision, but I think it will take more time than we might expect, given that we’ll be regrouping everywhere at once. We won’t be stuck in some prior century, but we are likely to get a whirlwind tour of the challenges our ancestors faced.
AVanarts – at 19:22
I am speaking theory… And I don’t see why villages would use up more arable land than what’s happening now. Build on slopes or other less desirable land, for one thing. Even good arable land has sections which are not so good; build there. WIth many small villages, farmland is close by which is easier to get to if fuel is scarce/expensive. In India (traditionally) farmers live in villages and walk to their fields that are outside the village proper.
Nine tenths of the crap that is sold in stores is either malign or useless. That’s using up valuable land - all the parking lots and huge commercial districts. Of course, once earth is covered with tons of cement and blacktop, it’s irretrievable for the forseeable future.
Villages are better for another reason - people feel that they belong there, they know their neighbors, kids are safer. I read “Small is Beautiful” 25 years ago and it’s still a good book. Economics as if people mattered.
People don’t need as much stuff as they think they do. An axiom of mine: Oil has made human labor almost worthless. So few people have really satisfying needed work to do; producing useful and necessary goods.
If this pandemic is as bad as some on FW and other places fear it might be, we may be looking at a smaller population anyway.
Im with Dr Dave If we have any kind of high CFR were getting knocked back a century. Im planning a lifestyle change. My preps are livestock, and tools I can plow a field with a horse if I have to - I can make a harness and a plow too, wont be the best but it will serve my purpose. Yes I can make soap, tan hides too, spin wool FYI you dont need a wheel just a spindle Ive milked goats birthed babies bottle fed em then butchered them, Ive made cheese sausage bacon and jerky. wont even go into the gardening and canning Ive done I can trade milk and cheese for some luxuries if worse comes to worse. All these skills are as nessasary as stocking up bags of rice and MREs. I will be fully sustainable with the skills I already have.At the first hint of a pandemic while others are hitting the store Ill be buying a couple of goats, pigs and some rabbits. Across the street sits a hay field I can sickle enough hay for a few rabbits and a couple of goats, pigs do well on acorns and a little corn mixed with whey.
Well anyway you guys are getting the point. To live off the land requires a skill set that very few have. Moving to a rural area without these skills just means you will die in an unfamiluar area. Same outcome different setting. Setting in a RV in the country waiting for the food fairy isnt going to work. But I dont doubt that thier will be those who will try. I expect to them to come in droves to my area. I feel bad for them but I cant sacrifice my grandchildrens safety for them.. I know that the planners have made no provisions for the refugees they will be utterly on thier own in unfamiluar territory with no skills to survive.
Sounds like we all need to become friends with the Amish and Mennonites. They will become heroes to us 21st century folks when we need to learn how to prosper in an 18th century world. I can grow a garden,can,dry (new skill that I`m inordinately proud of ), hunt fish, butcher, knit, crochet and other hand work stuff, milk a cow, make butter. Have never tried cheese, but am willing to learn. Along with everything I may need to learn. Back to the Future,indeed.
Okay, but lets think of this:
I certainly don’t know how to create electricity on my own. As far as relying on the electric company, what if there aren’t people there who know how to run it? Or what if the replacement parts come from elsewhere…like China? Or what if there is nobody mining the coal that feeds the furnaces? What if there aren’t the scientists who can monitor the nuclear power plants? As far as having a solar system, what if you can’t replace the batteries that drain (speaking from experience)?
As far as flour? Who is to say that Costco will still be in existance to go and pick some up to make the bread at home?
My point is only this: These skills aren’t lost. There are a host of people who continue to learn how to fend for themselves instead of relying on these companies. No they are not all weirdos. My feeling is that preparation is prepping for the worst and hoping for the best. (By the way, I have lived in a log cabin 1 mile off the road with no running water, no indoor plumbing and until a well was put in, we had to backpack all of our water in. No it was not all fun, but it is rewarding to know that you can survive by your own wits. We had a garden, goats, a huge orchard etc.. and I did clothes by hand by heating water on a woodstove and using washtubs and a brush.)
janetn – at 22:16
Will work for you for food…
Just to put things into perspective, I suggest everyone go out and rent Enemy at the Gates from Blockbuster. Beneathe the dramatic plot of sniper vs sniper, you get a pretty good idea of what it was like living in Stalingrad during the siege. Throw in a 50% CFR from H5N1 and that’s really a worst case scenario…
Even after The Fall, we will have a major advantage that our 19th century ancestors didnt have - we already know about electricity and computers and farming methods and equipment and transportation, financial management, medicine, etc. We don’t have to conceive of it all again in order to reproduce it. We just have to figure out how to make it happen. We dont really need the genius of a Thomas Edison or Alexander Bell, or Einstein, either. If we are even moderately smart, we will be stockpiling lots of “how-they-did-it” books and hardbound encyclopedias (forget the internet) along with the boardgames, bullets, and beans.
In my best Nixon. . .”I want to make one thing perfectly clear” that the past 4–5 posts have been from my wife. Ain’t she absolutely wonderful. I love her dearly.
Way to go Janetn! You got it going on. Long term Preps need to be sustainable and renewable which includes learning new skill sets. We have goats, rabbits, chickens (yes, still have the chickens) garden, open pollinated seeds, cheese making supplies, hand pump for the well, barrells for the downspouts, wood stove, axe, maul etc. . . will get bees. Next major purchase will be a milk cow. How much do you suppose a pound of butter will be worth 18 months into a pandemic? Assuming the cow hasn’t been eaten. I grew up milking 3 cows by hand 2x a day. My family grew 75% of its food. Problem as someone else posted is getting the right equipment. We will probably be surprised what is hanging on the pegs of some of the old barns in rural areas.
I lived in a wall-tent in northern Labrador for June into September for four years, after that a winter in North Carolina is a walk in the park; no mosquitos and black flies, not as much snow, and indoor plumbing even if I’m filling the toilet tank with a bucket.
A lot of the “skill set” is making do with what you have, it is mind-set and thinking things through. As an example when I setup the woodstove in the fireplace I offset it to one side. That allows for an 18″ wide space on one side that can be used for heating water in a 20 gallon metal trash can, keeping food warm, baking rolls and bread between the back of the stove and the back of the fireplace etc. . .The stove top is still available for cooking. We will also get a Coleman Camping Stove for stove top use. Placing the stove in the middle of the fireplace would have been an inefficient use of the space.
And like Saddle Tramp said, stock up on those reference books. I pity the Amish, they are going to get inundated and overun by others, they are too obvious a target.
A good book to consider buying is the Reader’s Digest “Back To Basics”, How To Learn And Enjoy Traditional American Skills (Second Edition). It is packed with information. I highly recommend it. I purchased mine at Hastings, but their website says they are out of stock now.
For those of you who are serious about homesteading, I had this link to a discussion board on the subject in my bookmarks:
To live off the land requires a skill set that very few have.
A booklet plus some minimal infrastructure? What would that look like?
And no tent cities. We want space around people.
California better than Alaska?
If a book is out of stock then we need to rely on available stuff on the internet, or create it. But I don’t think we have to create it. Maybe simplify it. Adapt it to “planned-for evacuation strategy”. Explore the idea, then kill it.
anonymous@20:02- I agree. Not everyone who may evacuate to their second home will be going unprepared and becoming a drain on the locals. I have a second home about 80 miles from my primary. i am preparing both places so I have an option on how best to protect my family. Each house has benfits and drawbacks to SIP in terms of water, heat, etc., so I am trying to think out different scenarios and how that factors into it. Right now each place is stocked in terms of weeks, possibly months, and I am tightening up my plans for non food issues. I’m a little disappointed that several posts seem to indicate that those of us who choose to shelter in our second places don’t really have that right. I’ve paid my taxes there, I own the land and building, I plan to be self sufficient, so what’s the problem? I do know that my neighbors at my second place haven’t done a single thing to prepare, so I anticipate that helping them will be part of my future responsibilities. Surely there are other people on this forum who just happen to have second homes in a more rural community that aren’t really SUV or BMW driving stupid brats.
This thread is probably finished so I’ll just think out loud. I’ve been wondering for some time if the government will try to resurrect some of the New Deal projects during a pandemic, in particular the Civilian Conservation Corps. As people were discussing whether or not the government would try to evacuate the cities to the countryside, my first response was “nope, not their first goal.” Setting up huge tent cities for entire families would seem to be a death warrant. The flu would spread like wildfire before they had a chance to die of starvation.
I can, however, imagine the government enlisting or drafting young people (although able-bodied healthy older adults would also be valuable) into a civilian service organization, a group that would be used for labor-intensive work in a post-pandemic society. I can easily imagine the government evacuating these people to federal forests, setting up tent cities, providing them with food and health care, and training them in farming, transport, utility operations, etc. As I’ve said before, I believe that in a post-pandemic world, our greatest resource will be people, people with skills, people who can work hard, people who will help in the rebuilding.
As for myself, we live in a moderate sized city (over half million) on an acre of land. I don’t know what will happen, but our chances are as good here as anywhere else.
A few thousand tacks. All any rural area would need.
Anonymous Anne – at 12:57
I don’t think anyone here said that a landowner should not be able to occupy their own land. Quite the contrary most are against others taking over private land regardless if it is in the city or the country. The thread is about evacuating cities to rural land not evacuating to public land, or to other cities, or migration of people between their own land holdings. The flu should not nullify private ownership of property without due process.
My question for you would be: what if you are delayed in getting to your second home and then arrive to find other families that some near by city has evacuated to the area and you find them occupying it, eating your preps, cutting your trees for wood, and digging a grave for their dead granny who happened to have died of the flu? Do you approve of cities evacuating their citizens to your privately owned land?
Anonymous Anne, I’m sure you will be welcome in your ountry place, especially if you have prepped and are seen as an asset to the community.
The point I was trying to make is that there are many rural communities that are in effect resorts. People visit their condos or summer houses for a few weeks or weekends at a time. I have observed that many of the people in this situation aren’t really connected with the community at all. Instead they are connected to other people who have weekenders.
Let me give you an example of what i mean. Where I live there is a big bay with a narrow entrance. On one headland there is a town full of $5 - $10 million homes. It’s full at weekends and in summer with merchant bankers, stockbrokers and suchlike. When visiting friends there we talk of business and other friends, people have lawsuits over tennis court lighting and suchlike. It’s all terribly upmarket.
On the other headland is a town which is the base for the marine pilot service and that is also an old fishing village. Boats still go out to fish from there. There is an old peoples home, bowling club, Library and its a thriving working community. The place is as comfortable as an old boot
Guess which community has a better chance of survival and to which I’ve made sure I’m well connected?
“Do you approve of cities evacuating their citizens to your privately owned land?”
Keep in mind when answering this question that NO CITY is planning to evacuate its citizens ANYWHERE — not to tent cities, not to motels, certainly not to anyone’s private homes, as far as we on this thread and forum know.
Whether actual citizens of cities, fleeing unrest on their own, would appropriate an empty house is a different question. For that matter, unprepared rural residents may be the more likely candidates for this action, as they are closer by and would be likely to think “Gee, I guess those city folk couldn’t get here, I’ll just help myself.”
As for tacks diana, keep in mind that the traffic you would thereofr be keeping from coming into your town would include family members of those in the town, eventual emergency supplies, fuel, and groceries. You can cut yourself off for a while — but for 2 years? 3 Years? Of a pandemic period?
Anonymous Anne,
Nobody is proposing that you be denied the right to live in your own home or to relocate from your urban residence to your rural residence. The discussion is about coping with the millions of people live in the big cities but do not have second residences elsewhere. You are the exception, not the rule. There will be vast numbers of people in every community (not just cities) who are woefully unprepared for an extended SIP. It just happens that if you are in a big city, you have fewer options and you are more likely to be driven from your home at a fairly early point in the pandemic.
Compare the viability of a high-rise apartment versus a single family home. In a high-rise apartment, where do put the generator and where do you store the fuel? How do you gather water? Where will you dig the latrine? How to you plan to get from the 24th floor to the grocery store without an elevator? Even if you only have a few flights to climb, how will you keep from getting mugged in the stairway on your way back from the store?
Now, add the additional factor that many apartment buildings are occupied by people of limited financial means. Even if the grid stays up, SIP will not be an option for them. Something will drive them from their homes because they will not have the resources to remain there. Whether or not an appreciable percentage of urbanites can relocated to ther places remains to be seen, but no matter how you look at it, the big cities are in big trouble.
Average Concerned Mom – at 16:44
“NO CITY is planning to evacuate its citizens ANYWHERE “
You may want to re-watch the video that started this thread. It sure sounds that U of Albany got a grant to do just that and that 40% of those in NYC where “planning” on going to “rural areas” if there is an evacuation. Now this was not specific to bird flu but it does seems to be “planned for”.
Sorry, I thought I deleted the tacks. I find this thread very somber and sad, and it is my silly sense of the ridiculous that made me type that in, and then on second thought reset it. Seems it went through. It is serious, but I’m more in the wait and see mindset.
Don’t get me wrong, I personally would not put out tacks, blow up bridges or tunnels, however if your plan is to try to leave the city for somewhere else (rural or another city), you also need to plan for such things. Just as there will be riots and looting in the cities there will be “good old boys” with rifles aimed at your tires if not your head. I have seen shootings over just one gate left open. Just as there may not be any water pressure in a high-rise, there may not be any water pressure in a small town whose water system is not designed for an influx of double or triple the population. And it is just as hard to grow beans under two feet of snow in the country as it is on a balcony in the city. It is even harder to walk 5 miles in the snow as going up 24 flights of stairs. (example: I have 550 feet of elevation change on my 20 acres.) My point is that it will not be nice anywhere.
Have a prepare place- where ever it is, know it well, prepare it well and don’t forget to prepare yourself.
I had no idea that being a city dweller meant that I am both welfare dependent and suffering from a delusional sense of entitlement.
DennisC – at 17:20
It is even harder to walk 5 miles in the snow… I have 550 feet of elevation change on my 20 acres.
Are you operating a ski resort? (sorry, can’t resist).
According the census, 37.5 miilion in the U.S.A. live in poverty. Millions more are just above the poverty level, but have little or no disposable income. Can these people prep for long enough to make a difference? Take our current population of 300 million. Rich or poor, what percentage is prepping for an extended SIP? My guess is less than 1%. Of the remaining 99% that are not prepping at all, how long could they SIP with the food and supplies they have in their homes today? A week or two? In the early stages of a pandemic, what will break their SIP efforts? The quest for food, medicine, and toiletries. I wonder what percentage of the U.S. population lives in multi-family housing.
ANON-YYZ – at 17:50 ski resort
No but there is one within 4 miles. It doesn’t always have enough snow (like now) but it is one of the southern most ones of the continential US. And a bigger one about 40 miles away. I am at 9000 feet. My land goes NS by about 1500 feet but up about 550 feet over that length.
The locals do a lot of “tubing” within 1/2 mile or so. Most of the “tourists” come in the summer and then it is nice but if they think that they could evacuate here and stay in the winter- good luck to them. An area that is nice for a vacation my be bad for a year round “tent city”. If you don’t have food stored for the winter, you would not survive.
diana – at 15:46 tacks-
Like you I would not propose such a thing but people that plan on traveling need to make sure they are ready for such things. Here my guess is that they would pull the cattle guards and down a few trees. Most everyone here has a chain saw and we have trees naturally blocking roads after the first snow anyway. A lot of “back woods” people travel with a chain saw just to get the trees out of the way. I would think it would be easy to block roads by downing them.
Again, don’t read this, as I want that done. I am just trying to warn those that do plan to bug out that travel over distances more than 50 miles or so may not be as easy as you first think.
The primary planning for cities should be for those citizens in their cities and those that cannot evacuate and an evacuation should be secondary. I think that a H5N1 pandemic will hit very fast and there just will not be any time for anyone to escape it anywhere other than by SIP even that is just a short-term solution. By the time people start thinking of leaving where they are, they will have been exposed. The flu, their fuel, their food, and their family (4F’s) will limit their travels.
Anonymous Anne – at 12:57
guess i missed the part where people with 2nd homes weren’t welcome. i have no issues with property owners, or invited guests/family of property owners. no BMW… do have a Bronco from the early 90′s - up here, folks call them trucks, tho - SUV is a cliche that city folk live - get a nice truck, but don’t go anywhere with it, and when it snows, call in for a snow day because they’re afraid to drive.
I’m thinking harder about the two-week prep advisory from the U.S. government’s point of view. If we want people (essential personnel, for instance) to be safe, we tell them to prep for twelve weeks. That’s become the magic number. (Some of us like to multiply it.)
If we tell the general population to prep for two weeks instead twelve, they are not going to be safe; they are going to be hungry and thirsty and will eventually die just the same, unless the virus thins their numbers and leaves them stores others were meant to consume. So why two weeks? Is that all our supply chain can realistically manage? Is that all we can say without causing social unrest among those who cannot hope to prep for longer while the rest of us pack away whatever there is? What is it that can be accomplished in that time frame? Is two weeks the time it will take for fuel supplies to dry up or be diverted, such that people then pretty much have to stay put? Does two weeks ensure time to get an area quarantined with a minimum of chaos? (Not that I think that would work.) There has to be a reason for two weeks, and it is not ensuring the long-term survival of Americans.
Truth is, there isn’t enough food for every American to stockpile for twelve weeks, just as there are not enough antivirals, hospital beds, or anything else. So what leverage does two weeks offer in containing the virus or in flattening and delaying the surge of chaos and desperation? I think these questions are important, but I don’t have a good sense for what the answers may be. Ideas?
Anne Nobody meant to imply that you wouldnt do well at your place in the country. I wouldnt stay in the city during a pandemic if I had a choice. I think people who have relatives in rural areas who would welcome them should head there at the first sign of H2H transmission.
What im trying to point out is that most people are not prepared, and they dont have the skills to just head out to a campground or cabin in the woods. Frankly most of the population is spioled rotten and wouldnt have a clue as to how to survive without the infrastructure. The fact that you are here learning & prepping puts you in a minority. Im sure you will do fine and be an asset to any community.
If there is a large migration from the cities it would be disaterous, because the tools and skills are not present in most of the population of todays cities.
InKy – at 19:06 why 2 weeks?
I think it is because if most SIP for two weeks, it will be long enough to keep them stationary while the flu is fully developed. About by then the flu will be everywhere, the grid will start to fail, the fuels reserves will have been about expended, and they will not be able to migrate and travel. By the time the bulk of the population figures out how bad it really is it will be too late for much else to happen.
I also think you are right, the system would “crash” if 80% preped for 12 weeks. TPTB seem to be betting that either there will be a mild pandemic or it will be fast with a high death rate and after 2 weeks the survivors can use the “left overs”.
Sorry for being pessimist on this point.
I am afraid it will be a 10 to 20 % death rate and we will recover reasonably well within a year or two in US and EU and within in 5 years world wide. And until that time there will be a lot of hungry, tired people.
“NO CITY is planning to evacuate its citizens ANYWHERE “
You may want to re-watch the video that started this thread. It sure sounds that U of Albany got a grant to do just that and that 40% of those in NYC where “planning” on going to “rural areas” if there is an evacuation. Now this was not specific to bird flu but it does seems to be “planned for”.
Argh!
NO! There are no tents, there are no tents, there are no tents! (manic laughter)
No city (at least that we heard on the webcast) is planning to evacuate residents because of pandemic flu.
This webcast featured two public health people discussing the fact that when there is a a disaster - flood, hurricane, terror attack, pandemic - people have the impulse to leave the area that they perceive to be dangerous. It is a strong impulse to leave even when public health people have said they should stay.
They understand that most rural areas aren’t ready to handle the numbers of people that could be coming their way will probably overwhelm them if they live close to a large city.
The webcast is about rural communities dealing with what will come their way
DennisC at 20:19 -
I think you are right.
shrug. Maybe my situation is differant than what all of you are describing, then. My “country” place is actually much more populated year round than my primary home, which is also in the country. lol
Note Nabarro’s emphasis on containment of both virus and chaos from today’s news:
Nabarro also said governments around the world must be poised to aggressively contain any localised outbreak in humans and to limit the fallout - and keep essential services running – in the event of a human influenza pandemic.
“It doesn’t require a lot of thinking to understand what the magnitude of the impact of a pandemic will be,” he said. “We are not talking about a health crisis, but a social, economic and governance crisis.”
aurora – at 21:02
If you mean no city government has plans - you might be right.
However the survey of city citizens in the video clip showed that 40% where planning to evacuate during a disaster. They even had maps on what percentages of people where planning to go to various places like WV. Fore example see the slide at minute 19:44 about their (the citizen’s) expected mode of evacuation and minute 21:42 as to their expected destination. To me the citizens of a city are the city so I would say cities do plan to evacuate and 40% of NYC would be mass evacuation. The people may not have government directions but they do have plans to evacuation for disasters.
Dr Dave – at 17:52
«According the census, 37.5 miilion in the U.S.A. live in poverty. Millions more are just above the poverty level, but have little or no disposable income. Can these people prep for long enough to make a difference? Take our current population of 300 million. Rich or poor, what percentage is prepping for an extended SIP? My guess is less than 1%. Of the remaining 99% that are not prepping at all, how long could they SIP with the food and supplies they have in their homes today? A week or two? In the early stages of a pandemic, what will break their SIP efforts? The quest for food, medicine, and toiletries. I wonder what percentage of the U.S. population lives in multi-family housing.»
Yes. I have not been able to stop crying about this all day.
Under the Radar -
It’s all very sad. The thought is a burden we carry wherever we go.
All -
I took notes when I watched the Webcast. I don’t have time to edit them, but if anyone wants to skim through them with the understanding that they are hastily typed notes and nothing more, the Word document can be downloaded here. It’s easier to discuss the implications of the Webcast with particulars to look at.
If a real twelve week prep advisory was given, would the system crash? No.
First, not that many more people would prep. Some more would because while many think they can survive for around 2-weeks on what’s in their house (mostly in error), most folks know for a fact they cannot make it for close to 3 months - so off to the store they would go.
And even if that percentage went out on a shopping binge and tried to stockpile the entire 12-weeks worth all in one shot, the worst that would happen is that there would be spot shortages that would be duly refilled by increased orders and increased deliveries in our Just In Time economy. A little inconvenience perhaps, but not much harm.
A more likely probability would be that these newly converted preppers would gradually build up their stocks as time and budget allowed - having a negligible affect on the ‘system’.
On the other hand, imagine what will happen if all but the very, very few try to prep when the pandemic is already on its way around the world? Then, the system will truly have no time to accomodate this higher demand (at that point - truly panic buying) and people will react predictibly when faced with being without at their time of greatest need - they will look for someone to blame. And that blame will go to those in authority who knew what people should do and failed to trust them enough to give them the facts.
Even worse will be those that believe that some small favored group was given inside dope, while all the rest were kept in the dark. If the latter sentiment is the one that prevails, their truly will be hell to pay. (And this analysis does not even factor in any widespread perception of favoritism in the allocation of vaccines and anti-virals; even if they exist only in the wishful minds of desperate parents.)
DennisC - 21:43
I agree that a city is composed its people.
Individual families may have plans to self evacuate, butI think saying that the city plans to evacuate sounds as though the city government is planning an evacuation for pandemic flu in the same way they would use evacuation in the case of a terror attack or hurricane.
My community is within one gas tank of two major cities. So far the plans for our highway seem to be “close the ramps and keep them moving.”
Obviously that would be a problem - cars will run out of gas and the highway will become a parking lot, there will be medical emergencies, more than a few will have guns, some people will get out of their cars and come into the community.
The University of Albany’s group wants to come up with software to give rural areas an idea of what an influx of people would do to their resources and infrastructure, and to encourage rural areas to join together in planning for large scale emergencies.
Somebody help me out please!
I have no idea what this thread is about anymore. The title is “Mass Evacuation to Rural Communities.” Are we talking about a large group of people, organized or not, leaving the city in an awful hurry and heading for the sticks? Or are we talking about a trickle of people deciding to migrate out to a family country home? The distance between these two concepts seems very wide to me.
What is a Mass Evacuation?
In the study, the issue was a mass evacuation in case of a terrorist attack or a hurricane or a chemical spill. These things happen in a limited area, so evacuating that area makes sense. It’s unclear what we would be talking about in the case of a pandemic. There will be no planned evacuation of cities - that’s nonsense. Question is, what will people do? Will some of them try to flee the cities without having prepared ahead of time and without any specific place to go where they know they will be received?
“There will be no planned evacuation of cities - that’s nonsense. Question is, what will people do? Will some of them try to flee the cities without having prepared ahead of time and without any specific place to go where they know they will be received? “
As things stand now, there is no planned anything of anything. There is no organization, and perhaps there is papers with writing on them, but they bear as much relevance to the reality of pandemic flu panic as a Katrina Survival guide written by Paris Hilton.
As to how they will be received pretty much anywhere? There will be millions on millions of panicked, frightened starving people trying to go SOMEWHERE, trying to find SOMETHING, they know not what or where. The only thing we can be sure of is that the government’s new 4,000 rounds per minute 7.6 mm (1/3 inch diameter) calibre machine guns will get a good workout keeping “order”. And there is LOTS of ammunition for those guns on hand, more than enough to do the job, I am sure. That is our government’s only functional, real, accomplished “preps” and “plans”.
Obviously, I am not in a good space today. If the moderators would like to delete my previous comment as non-productive, I would not mind a bit. I am not saying it doesn’t reflect my general feelings about our government or societal priorities.
Under The Radar – at 21:52
I have lives practically all my adult life under the official poverty level. If I can prep, anyone can prep. I lived on AFDC for some time with two children after their father abandoned us. I know what it’s like to live on next to nothing.
If people who are poor stopped buying cigarettes, liquor, dope, movies, having their nails done, walked more and drove less, cut their cable TV, didn’t eat at McDonald’s, cooked all their food at home, ate very simply, didn’t go to the hair salon, and bought all their clothes at the thrift store, they’d be able to buy extra rice, beans, flour, canned stuff, and so on and prep. I lived for years without any extras and managed; I didn’t prep then but I could have. I used to donate money to worthy causes at that time.
The idea that in the US some people are too poor to prep is really hard to believe. It’s not as easy as it is for people with a lot of money, but it can be done. The only reason any kids in the US are hungry is if their parent/s are spending money on unnecessary stuff instead of feeding their children.
BeWell,
We recognize that people of all income levels are capable of making bad financial decisions. However, very few people understand that society is on the brink of a disaster. So, it is not simply a matter of directing one’s income toward preparation. The first step is to convince the masses that a crisis is coming their way. As long as the WHO is at 3, this will not be possible. Unfortunately, by the time the general public begins to take the threat seriously, it will be far too late to prep thoroughly, even for the wealthy.
Speaking from personal experience, I can attest that it takes about two full weeks of careful research and shopping to become self-sufficient for just one month. And I’m not just talking about groceries. I’m talking about bare minimum stocking levels for absolutely everything you could possibly need: food, water, medicine, household supplies, heat, light, camp stoves, camp toilets—the works. Unless you have everything in advance, you will be forced to leave your home at some point during the pandemic to go get it, and that is when you will get sick.
As for the impoverished, how much prepping can really be expected to do? Yes, some of them can probably afford to purchase a few months’ worth of beans and rice at a cost of about 50 cents per person per day U.S., but when the grid goes down, how will they cook it? And how many boxes of diapers should they stockpile for their babies? Where is the cash for that? And at what point should they invest $150 for a water filter? Do they have $150 for a water filter? And who is giving them advice on how to keep from freezing to death?
Sorry, but you have four huge insurmountable obstacles here: 1) truly adequate preparation is not within the means of the poor; 2) multi-family dwellings are not well suited for an extended SIP; 3) nobody is taking the threat seriously; and 4) time is running out.
Farm Girl: What is a Mass Evacuation?
Its when there is the flu in Boston and everyone goes to Maine. ;)
Dr Dave – at 10:09 “And how many boxes of diapers should they stockpile “
Three cotton diapers and two safety pins. That way you have one to change, one to be cleaned and one drying on the line.
Sorry, I just could not resist. That is the way we did it with our first baby. But you do need water.
……………..
It seems that the thread has turned from “mass evacuation to rural communities” to “government planning of evacuation”. Yes, the cities should have plans and prepare for their citizens. However if TSHTF this winter, the vast majority of the cities will not have it done. In a few weeks TPTB will be on vacation and by the time the holidays are over, it may be all too late.
I still think that the most important thing is for the governments to keep the water and sanitation running, and secondly the grid up. If they just do that, we just might have a chance to save many lives. I think that if we try to effect the city governments we should first tell them to keep the water and power up at all costs so there will be fewer needing to evacuation. It is generally better to concentrate on prevention first and treatments of problems second.
LOL! That would do it I guess.
But does a mass evacuation HAVE to be planned by authorities, or can it be a spontaneous decision made independently by individuals? If 30% of a large city decides they’d like to leave suddenly can the rural communities they go to handle the increase in population, just in terms of housing? Where would they sleep if they have no plans in advance?
Wouldn’t the government have to respond to such an occurrence? That might be where tent cities come into the picture. If everyone had kin to go to it would be great, but how many people live far away from family?
Okidokie – at 10:43 Its when there is the flu in Boston and everyone goes to Maine. ;)
OH, and all this time I thought it was when the flu and every one in Maine goes to hotels in Boston to get little warmer when their power is out. :)
farm girl – at 10:55 Wouldn’t the government have to respond?
If the “government” starts to see mass evacuation from cities they will likely just quarantine and block roads. They may not have food supplies for everyone but I am sure they know it is easier to keep the water on in the city than to truck it across the country to hundreds of little tent cities that have no pipes, sinks or sewers. Just like a flood: first stop the flow then work on the reconstruction.
And, I thought it was when there`s flu in Phoenix, and everyone goes north. Oh, wait. That happens every summer when the Valley temps hit 100+.
Dr Dave – at 10:09
I lay in bed last night thinking about my comments. I realized they were harsh and incomplete. You finished them correctly. I do see both sides, in a sense - that IF people were told the truth, IF people WANTED to see the truth, and a whole bunch of more IFS - at least many people could prepare somewhat adequately. But if people are not told the truth, then nothing matters. They won’t even try to prepare, and the result will be, if H5N1 does what we think it will do, incredibly horrible.
It occurs to me that in cities, the only way people will be able to survive, if TSHTF big time, is to cooperate, work together. Help each other. Dig communal latrines where there is space, communal cooking, helping care for the helpless elderly or disabled. But will that happen? Probably churches, or other local community organizations.
DH and I were talking about our neighborhood. I decided to print stuff up (including the document you emailed me) and take it to the local town authorities, talk to them personally if possible, make copies and take it to a city council meeting (city of 1200, with surrounding valley population of 16,000), write a long letter to the editor with links to various websites. We decided that we will try to buy extra bulk food and if TSHTF donate it to churches if they are cooking for people. Luckily we are rural, I cannot imagine living in a big city even without H5N1.
If only people took life more seriously. What is needed is a change of mindset, a change of focus. Our educational system combined with the trash called entertainment and pervasive escapist drug culture has created a huge number of people who cannot think or take responsibility for their own lives, who live for instant gratification.
Whatever happens, be sure that people will not be orderly, rational or reasonable. THAT will be the exception, and just recall things like Serbia, the earthquake in Pakistan, the Tsunami in Asia, and Katrina. These were in specific areas. They can be managed to a degree, people had little choice, but with Katrina people did have choices to make on their own., and people are still not squared away. A percentage will never recover their past lives. This will be global if it does happen. Those here might run there, those there will think its better here. If they haven’t paid attention they won’t realize what they are up against. After people around them die they will be frightened and angry. Some will run, others will hunker down. The scenarios you invision may never happen, but at least you are mentally aware. None of us can predict what masses of other people would do, expecially if they are ignorant of the disease and quarentine. When is the last time anyone was quarentined, some people don’t know what that is. They don’t think anything like you do.Yet none of us knows for sure. The authorities have plans, we might not like them, in fact shudder at the thought, but once a pandemic has begun we will be flotsom and jetsom with no choice in the disposition of our lives. If they choose to take all the thousands of mini mansions in our area and turn them into hostels they can. A pandemic is a war of sorts. Martial law will be in place. There are always loopholes, there are always resourceful individuals who can circumvent any arrangement. TPTB will attempt to keep society functioning for the greater good. I only hope it never happens. I have printed out various of the plans, and though you may think the TPTB aren’t doing anything, or if they are, not enough. I beg to differ.
BeWell,
Well stated. The conditional “ifs” that you mentioned are what prevent everyone in the country from having a chance to prepare. Yes, everyone needs to be told the truth, but not everyone want to hear about it, especially when it is unpleasant. This is one of my greatest frustrations right now.
I imagine that the cities will experience both the very best that humanity has to offer and the very worst, but I do not foresee a mass exodus to the country. After the government agencies and the private charities and the faith-based organizations have done everything they possibly can, it will still not be enough. So, my guess is that the suburbs will feel the heaviest impact. After all, you can walk there.
Well, I’m not sure what inner city residents would do in the suburbs - set up camps in Walmart parking lots instead of sleeping in beds in their own homes?
Sahara – at 17:48 said: “Question- How many shots from a high powered rifle does it take to close a 4 lane highway?
Well, that’s one way to approach the problem. However, I highly doubt that the site of children dying of cold or dehydration along a closed highway is going to make the shooter feel that he or she made the right decision.”
I’m reminded of the news’ reports about citizens and police officers from one of the LA parrishes outside NO blockading a bridge that was the only way out of that area of NO and turning back those who were prepared to walk out of the city. The blockaders were afraid the people would come into their town and were determined to prevent that from happening. The people attempting to walk out were faced with either turning back or taking a bullet. They turned back.
I have absolutely no problem seeing rural people turning a blind eye towards the suffering of those attempting to escape because an “us vs. them” mentality would develop. Perhaps those living in the rural areas would detest having to refuse sanctuary but I bet they would do it in a heartbeat if they felt it was the only way to keep their families alive.
Irene,
Why travel all the way from the city to the country unless you have already exhausted every possibility nearby? The suburbs are closer, so that will make it a whole lot easier to locate people with resources. All they have to do is listen for the sound of the generator, look for the smoke from the chimney, or follow the smell of the cooking. After that… well, use your imagination.
Hmmm… Dr. Dave…. Now it sounds like you are suggesting — no outright saying — that the unprepared will flee the cities — not to flee illness — but to search for resources such as food and warmth.
If indeed you are imagining this — then why would it make sense to “warn the cities” to stockpile food? Unless they could for the complete duration of the event — wouldn’t that just alert “them” to the fact that some people (those well off in the suburbs and rural areas) were able to stockpile? Creating a resentment and therefor this sense of entitlement?
Wouldn’t it be better NOT to warn anybody (except quietly, oh so quietly and privately, by word of mouth) so those who probably couldn’t or wouldn’t prepare — had no idea that anyone else COULD and WOULD? That therefore when supplies ran short — that there was a sense that “we’re all in this together — everyone is feeling the brunt equally”? “No point in walking all that way to the suburbs, sick and tired and weak as I am; there’s nothing there either?”
“Wouldn’t it be better NOT to warn anybody (except quietly, oh so quietly and privately, by word of mouth) so those who probably couldn’t or wouldn’t prepare — had no idea that anyone else COULD and WOULD?”
Are you assuming that non-prepped people would think that because they were unprepared that everyone else was equally unprepared so they may as well just give up and wait for their fate?
Texas Rose — kind of, yeah.
If something happened suddenly, tomorrow , to interrupt our food supply, why on earth would anyone think people had 3 to 6 months worth of food and supplies tucked away at home? That’s just not “normal”, that’s not how we all mostly live. So if the TV news made a big deal out of “Wow, there’s no food anywhere — stores are empty, everyone’s out of everything…” why would it even occur to people to leave where they are and go to other people’s houses? Stores, sure — restaurants, Sure — some lawless individuals would look there. But walk out to the suburbs? Why on earth would you expect there to be all that much out there either? Even those who did wouldn’t be likely to find all that much anyhow, so they’d soon have to stop. Doesn’t make sense to bang down people’s doors to find the same cereal crumbs you have in your own kitchen.
BUT if you launch a massive campaign to get everyone in the country to stockpile a good 12 weeks of food and supplies, and you make sure everyone knows about it, and it is all over TV and in the newspapers, and everyone knows they should be doing it — then some people will and some people won’t. THEN if there’s a crisis — well — everyone knows that some people have supplies and other don’t.
In imagagining possible scenarios, I don’t really expect to see a complete breakdown of our food supply; that’s just me, I suppose, but I do see shortages, and rationing, and “less than desireable” food being available — all survivable, but not pleasant. If people have the feeling that we’re all in this together, they will be far more willing to go along with the status quo; if they have been primed to believe that somewhere people who have had more means have set by far more — well, that sets up envy, resentment, and all the other things that actually WILL fuel more civil unrest than any other factor (in my opinion.)
Average concerned Mom,
Although I do expect that some people will flee the cities to avoid getting sick, I am also predicting that many people will find their urban residences unlivable and that some of them will seek assistance in the nearby suburbs. However, I did not draw any conclusions about whether or not it is advisable to warn them to prepare. You did that by yourself. Nevertheless, you have raised a moral dilemma that probably deserves its own thread.
Average Concerned Mom – at 14:38 “not to flee illness — but to search for resources “
I would see no reason for people to flee the city because of illness since a pandemic is by definition “everywhere”. The is no where to flee to that would be free of the virus since anywhere anyone could go, they could take the virus with them. Where ever you go the virus is there.
Again cities should seek to take care of their citizens where they are not where they might be. Work to keep the water and power on. If they just did that, most of the rest would take care of itself.
Farm girl −10:55
The mass evacuation on the webcast would not be planned by authorities – it would be individual families who heard of the emergency and decided that they would be better off any place other than in their city. I don’t have exact numbers, but I think it was well over 30%.
Rural communities can’t handle anything even close to that many people. There wouldn’t be housing, food, sanitation, medical care, gas to keep some of them driving through the rural community, definitely no antivirals or vaccine (even if if was available for the community.)
If a family did leave without a destination in mind that they could reach in one tank of gas– like family or friends, I think they’d end up sleeping in their cars at a parking lot at Walmart, a school, or maybe on the highway because once people start running out of gas the highway will become a parking lot.
I’m not sure which government you mean when you ask if they if they wouldn’t have to respond.
If it’s the government of the city that they are leaving, I think the only way they could respond if they were trying to handle those people would be to put up blockades to keep everyone in the city. There are usually many ways into and out of a city – I don’t know if that’s possible. Also they would have enraged citizens if they tried to keep everyone in.
The governments of the rural areas (or at least my area) aren’t thinking of this problem, don’t have the staff necessary to deal with an influx of people, and they don’t have the money to handle this kind of emergency if they could come up with a plan.
I spoke with my local emergency person, and found out that they were planning to close ramps and keep traffic moving on the highway, but they hadn’t even thought of people running out of gas. My heart bounces off the floor every time I think of this.
Average Concerned Mom – at 15:37 “BUT if you launch a massive campaign to get everyone in the country to stockpile a good 12 weeks of food and supplies, and you make sure everyone knows about it, and it is all over TV and in the newspapers, and everyone knows they should be doing it — then some people will and some people won’t. THEN if there’s a crisis — well — everyone knows that some people have supplies and other don’t. “
I think you are right. That may be the reason that they only are advising 2 weeks. Much more and then there will be haves and have nots which will lead to “social unrest”.
I have taken the path of having several months of preps but having them hidden and over many locations. I do not want to be placed in the position of having to “defend” a material thing.
Average Concerned Mom,
This is not just about food. It is also about heat, water, light, sanitation, and security. As DennisC has suggested, if you can keep the lights on and the water running, fewer people will be forced to leave their homes, wherever they may be. On the other hand, if you had no food, no heat, no light, and no water, why would you stay put?
You may not imagine that the shelves will ever be empty, but surely you imagine being broke. Like it or not, millions of people are going to lose their incomes just as soon as social distancing kicks in. Even if there were plenty of food on the store shelves, how would they pay for it if they had no money? Hungry animals will forage.
I think the point some of you are trying to make is that in a pandemic, the Governments first priority will be to preserve itself, because without a working system of government you will have anarchy, chaos and destruction that will amplify the effects of the flu pandemic tenfold.
Their second peiority will be to limit the number of deaths in total. That will be a “greatest good for the greatest number” exercise, in fact, this has elements of military strategy embedded in it.
The implication is that resources are not going to be spread evenly - or “fairly”. They are going to be allocated where they will get the most “bang for their buck” - do the most good in the context of maximising the saving of life nationally.
This implies not only hospital/medical triage, it implies community triage, city triage and state triage. This traige will be enforced by the police/military, its in the plans, often euphemistically under the bullet point “movement restrictions”. What scares me is that authorities might be tempted to try some “social” triage. God help us if that happens.
In Australia most people are concentrated in an arc of the four big cities Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Perth at the other side of the continent. The flu will arrive by aircraft, probably from Asia. If it lands in Sydney, it is impossible that it will not be in Melbourne and Brisbane on the same day, connecting flights being what they are. It is just possible, if it is immediately detected in Sydney, that aggressive contact tracing, an immediate sessation of all air travel might halt a pandemic, but I don’t think so. If the CFR is as bad as it is at present, I think rural communities will start blocking the roads within days.
DennisC – at 11:04
“If the “government” starts to see mass evacuation from cities they will likely just quarantine and block roads. They may not have food supplies for everyone but I am sure they know it is easier to keep the water on in the city than to truck it across the country to hundreds of little tent cities that have no pipes, sinks or sewers. Just like a flood: first stop the flow then work on the reconstruction.”
I think I’m tunnel visioned on local government. Do you think that state gov or some branch gov will try to supress mass evac?
Dr Dave — I know it is a huge moral dilemma. I have intuited a huge disconnect and no small secrecy between the official 2 weeks and the more realistic 6 weeks/12 weeks — but shhhh keep it quiet — and have long wondered why.
My feeling is — it is moral to either tell everyone (and help them prepare) or tell NO one — but this tell some people and rely on them to tell their friends and family isn’t moral at all. (If that’s what’s happening.)
On the other hand, there is certain sense to it. Tell only those most able and most likely to be able to prepare. Tell everyone LOUDLY to prepare for 2 weeks, quietly mention “you have the repsonsibility to inform yourselves as to what your family will need”. Get employers to tell essential workers to prepare (if employers tell people, they WILL listen. If you are preparing an entire town — do it kind of quietly — don’t call in the media. Do NOT get some suburbs on NYC in Connecticut to prepare (visibly) — in fact, dicsount the need to do so. (But do it quietly). I wonder if that mentality isn’t what Goju ran into.
You know this is all pure speculation.
Average Concerned Mom,
You are right about the disconnect. I speculate the 2 week adviosory is for the lowest common denominator. Just about everyone can get by for two weeks, but to suggest twelve might cause panic.
I also share the internal conflict. The “situational ethics” debate has been running in my head for months. There are no easy answers.
aurora – at 16:17 Do you think that state gov or some branch gov will try to supress mass evac?
Yes, Their job of supplying and supporting a population is easier when the people are together. The logistics are easier and the costs are less. It is easier to supply water to a million people in existing pipes than in thousands of tanker trucks spread over thousands of square miles. It is easier to get power to existing houses with electric heaters than to heat a million tents with no insulation. It is easier to have one truck sent to city blocks close together than tent cities and small communities miles apart. It is easier to keep a hospital with 1000 beds open than a 100 small clinics of 10 beds each.
So yes, the governments will try to limit evacuations if they understand the threat. I would think that the media will also be useful by showing 100′s of miles of bumper to bumper cars with sick and dying people with no food or water and no way to get supplies to them. If communications remain up, the cell phones and cameras of people will display that it is bad everywhere. No one anywhere in the world will be free from its effect.
Just like a families binding together to defend their apartment from riots, small towns will bind together to defend their communities from outsiders. Fuel tanks will be emptied or tapped for residents and auxiliary generators. Large cities may not restrict travel out but the people that leave will be like the “man without a country” and truly on their own. There will be no open off ramps, no gas stations with anything to sale within 50 miles of major roads. Travel will quickly grind to a stop as pilots and drivers cannot or will not get to work. Perhaps a week of chaos then the realization will start to hit that there is no place to go that is better than any other place. Perhaps places like Iceland, NZ, Switzerland,… might be OK but there will be no way for millions to get there and countries will try to close their boarders.
Now where did I put my AA batteries for this crystal ball- it is getting dim again.
You’re all welcome to come to my town if you want to join a community during a pandemic: Saint Augustine, Florida. Saint Aug is the oldest city in the richest nation on the planet, and this is partly because we have the best climate and most abundant resources in North America year round. We pick fruit and nuts off the trees and catch fish, dig oysters, etc, etc, and we have abundant clean water.
As I’m sure you all know, there won’t be enough food here for everybody, but I’m sure you’ll all bring your supplies with you, and that you’ll give them to our community to distribute to the children and pregnant women first. That is what I love and respect about all of you here at5 fluwiki, that you just can not stop planning about how you will help others during crises. Of course, everyone who’s been in a crisis knows that this is what most people do (help each other) and that it is only the worst scum of the Earth who show concern only for their own selves (survivalists). For my part, I look forward to heping all who join me here learn how to fast. It’s not hard, really, especially when you have others to help during the first scary hours while you get over your natural (but ungrounded) fear of having little food for the first several months before our crops come in.
Saint Augustine is in St Johns County, just south of Jacksonville, Florida, on the Atlantic coast. Jacksonville is a crowded city, but predominantly good Christians, like most of you, so you can be sure that you will be greeted warmly and generously here, regardless of your faith or lack therof. I’ve been developing community preparedness plans for a while now, such as installing a very healthy local marketplace that will grow food and operate human-powered water sytems during the years of recovery from the global depression that will likely follow a major pandemic event.
If you intend to try to make it on your own, please don’t come around here because we won’t be able to help you. We already have plenty of violent people in Florida who will quickly find, rob and kill you during a crisis, and although I and many many others will help you participate in our community, there just won’t be any way for us to help you if you point your guns at us. On the other hand, when “survivalists” show up at “our door”, they will be greeted by many thousands of people who will offer to help them, providing medical attention and vital nutrition as we are able. Florida is the best State in the US at dealing with disaster and mass evacuation, so I am sure we are your best chance, and I anticpate many millions of people will join us, with St Aug at the hub.
By the way, don’t forget your mosquito repellant, seriously :)
You’re all welcome to come to my town if you want to join a community during a pandemic: Saint Augustine, Florida. Saint Aug is the oldest city in the richest nation on the planet, and this is partly because we have the best climate and most abundant resources in North America year round. We pick fruit and nuts off the trees and catch fish, dig oysters, etc, etc, and we have abundant clean water.
As I’m sure you all know, there won’t be enough food here for everybody, but I’m sure you’ll all bring your supplies with you, and that you’ll give them to our community to distribute to the children and pregnant women first. That is what I love and respect about all of you here at5 fluwiki, that you just can not stop planning about how you will help others during crises. Of course, everyone who’s been in a crisis knows that this is what most people do (help each other) and that it is only the worst scum of the Earth who show concern only for their own selves (survivalists). For my part, I look forward to heping all who join me here learn how to fast. It’s not hard, really, especially when you have others to help during the first scary hours while you get over your natural (but ungrounded) fear of having little food for the first several months before our crops come in.
Saint Augustine is in St Johns County, just south of Jacksonville, Florida, on the Atlantic coast. Jacksonville is a crowded city, but predominantly good Christians, like most of you, so you can be sure that you will be greeted warmly and generously here, regardless of your faith or lack therof. I’ve been developing community preparedness plans for a while now, such as installing a very healthy local marketplace that will grow food and operate human-powered water sytems during the years of recovery from the global depression that will likely follow a major pandemic event.
If you intend to try to make it on your own, please don’t come around here because we won’t be able to help you. We already have plenty of violent people in Florida who will quickly find, rob and kill you during a crisis, and although I and many many others will help you participate in our community, there just won’t be any way for us to help you if you point your guns at us. On the other hand, when “survivalists” show up at “our door”, they will be greeted by many thousands of people who will offer to help them, providing medical attention and vital nutrition as we are able. Florida is the best State in the US at dealing with disaster and mass evacuation, so I am sure we are your best chance, and I anticpate many millions of people will join us, with St Aug at the hub.
By the way, don’t forget your mosquito repellant, seriously :)
Dennis C @ 15:44 - “Again cities should seek to take care of their citizens where they are not where they might be. Work to keep the water and power on. If they just did that, most of the rest would take care of itself.”
Amen to that. That’s the lesson I take away from all of this.
Dennis C @ 15:44 - “Again cities should seek to take care of their citizens where they are not where they might be. Work to keep the water and power on. If they just did that, most of the rest would take care of itself.”
Amen to that. That’s the lesson I take away from all of this.
I would only change Dennis’s last line to “If WE just did that…” I for one plan to stand up at my town’s next preparedness meeting (if we ever have one) and make the point that we need to be sure our nearby big city is ready. It is in our best interests.
kparcell – at 17:35 oldest city.
That depends on who is claiming it. Yes, St Augustine was founded in 1565. Here in NM we like to say Santa Fe is the oldest and St Augustine was briefly abandoned (1763) during the fight with the British and they moved to Castillo for a short period and Santa Fe was founded in 1605.
But I personally would give the call to St Augustine. But being from NM, I feel a duty to point the twist of history out. Anyway you go, we are older than all those pilgram dudes. Of course being also a Chickasaw, I would point out that there have been a community living around Three rivers in NM since 900AD. :) (Just having fun)
Also, the Acomas claim that Sky City is the oldest continous city in the US.Was in place when the conquitadors came through that part of NM in 1500 or so. Kinda hard to call 70 acres with about 50 folks living there full time a city IMHO, but there you have it.LOL
Ok, I have been reading this at work, and I am a little miffed at the last response. I was in the US Army, i understand how the government works. I have seen plans for containment of civilians, and for quarentine, both voluntary and madatory. I am a survivalist, I have prepared for what I and my friends and family will need. It’s a shame that survivalists are looked upon so badly, now, granted there are the ones who will kill you and take your stuff because they want to, but agian, i have enough for MY FRIENDS, and FAMILY. Survival isn’t about ME, it’s about the PEOPLE. Yes, that includes the ones who werent prepared enough to handle whatever the situation is, ie. earthquake, flood, Katrina, any natural disaster. However, i also subscribe to the theory taht to get something, you need to give something. For example, I am trained both in martial arts, military intelligence, and survival. If i wanted something, i COULD take it, but the right thing to do is to BARTER for it. I can give someone food, water, shelter, protection, in return they give me their ideas and knowledge to help the overall GROUP. I just wanted to take the time to point out that “survivalist” does not mean “***hole”. Thank you.
EveryoneWorksTogether – at 18:58 1. Do not take this too seriously, 2. You MIGHT be able to take what you need. There is always someone with more firepower, smarter or just lucker. Do not be thinking that you are the only survivalist around here. Kelly
NP1, thats awesome! lol. I have confidence in myself and my groups abilities, however i also know that there are other people with better abilites. I was trying to point out that just because you can, doesnt mean you will. And i wish i wasnt lol but here in Oregon, everyone just seems like they want to roll over and die at the first sign of trouble lol. When i talk to people about preparing they rool their eyes and go wow this guys way over the top lol. It would be nice to have someone to plan with other than my group of friends.
I would think “survivalist” in general meant someone who cares to be able to survive what’s survivable with some care and forethought and common sense; not just have to hope “others” will save them…
;-)not be someone who’s in dire straights if the modern systems are offline for a day or two would be a good start… (don’t people want to “survive”?? or at least, not sit in the dark if the power goes out?) Marketing campaigns seem to do alright for everything else- even stuff that is bad for people; sell some self-reliance to the public. (Hurry up. Tell them why they need to, too.)
aurora you said, “spoke with my local emergency person, and found out that they were planning to close ramps and keep traffic moving on the highway, but they hadn’t even thought of people running out of gas. My heart bounces off the floor every time I think of this.”
(And how could they not “think of it” when people told how it happened to them during the hurricane evacuations?? We saw what the highways looked like, in the media.)
Kind of scares me sick (about worse than the virus going pandemic now). If everyone knew what we know, and were getting ready to try and do the best contingency things in concert, a pandemic virus would be more survivable as a society and as individuals.
These ptb people have been in too many plandemic meetings, and must sniff the printer ink, or something. Jobsworths; on de bank of deNile. They need to get -what did Peter Sandman call us recently? pandemic preparation fanatics? - probably have that remembered incorrectly, but - someone outside their boxes to talk them through and ask the questions and pick apart their details. But first they have to want to listen to you… maybe just getting the public discussing all this stuff would save time.
Existing city faith/community/neighborhood groups, ect, might listen and start brainstorming together, using the Flu Wiki and other resources, where the officials we have won’t step out of line on their “one message” policy, which seems to have a very low common denominator… These planners, who prep for themselves, but won’t tell the public, are starting to make me feel like I’m in the start of a zombie movie, or, that I’m going to start seeing big pods that must have snatched our public and health officials…
People do dumb things when motivated by fear. so rational thinking may not be the norm. I can invision a large chunk of a population of a city heading for the hills [so to speak]
Shuting the off ramps seems cruel, wouldnt it be better to put up some of those flashing signs warning those fleeing that the ramps are closed? At least then they wouldnt be stuck on the side of the highway with about zero chance of survivial. A few might decide to go on but I think those signs would disuade the majority.
As I said before if I had the chance to leave a city in a pandemic Id be gone in a flash. But I would make darn sure I had a place to go. I cant blame anyone for trying to flee. TPTB need to address this issue, or again were going to add to the death total if they dont.
People do dumb things when motivated by fear. so rational thinking may not be the norm. I can invision a large chunk of a population of a city heading for the hills [so to speak]
Shuting the off ramps seems cruel, wouldnt it be better to put up some of those flashing signs warning those fleeing that the ramps are closed? At least then they wouldnt be stuck on the side of the highway with about zero chance of survivial. A few might decide to go on but I think those signs would disuade the majority.
As I said before if I had the chance to leave a city in a pandemic Id be gone in a flash. But I would make darn sure I had a place to go. I cant blame anyone for trying to flee. TPTB need to address this issue, or again were going to add to the death total if they dont.
Ive lived in the backwoods of the pacific northwest my whole life. Its really easy to grow some things up here, and not so easy for others. I now live in the capitol of oregon, and I can tell you, not only do I have SEVERAL ways out of the city ( depending on what the sitrep is at the time) but also I have SEVERAL PLACES to go TO. I think that you would see almost a total shutdown of cities with a major epidemic or pandemic because people arent able to deal with disasters with a thinking head. They induce the fight or flight response that is a part of being human. You cant fight the virus, so they will flee. I also think that it will be quicke than people think. Not because of the idea of being on your own, but because people will see others doing it and follow suite. Man is gregarious, and tends to elan toward the social “lemmings” thinking. (lemmings are cute, i thought i’d use them instead of ants:)
Average Concerned Mom wrote “My feeling is — it is moral to either tell everyone (and help them prepare) or tell NO one — but this tell some people and rely on them to tell their friends and family isn’t moral at all. (If that’s what’s happening.)”
This is exactly what happened at the County meeting I attended in early summer. An attendee asked when and how they would start informing the public. The County representative said, and I quote “We’re counting on you to spread the word”. My God, isn’t that malfeasance, or misfeasance, or just plain legally actionable?
The suburbs contain all levels of socio-economic levels, I’ve owned a house in the burbs for 11 years now but have held onto it by my fingernails for most of those. Not everybody out here has the income people seem to think we have. I have prepped (four months worth now) for the two of us and our many animals…but most in this neighborhood are clueless. We also have a lot of rentals as we are near UCF. If these college kids can’t get home they can quickly become a problem. I just have not had the courage to try and talk to more than two neighbors. I worry about making us a target. Remember, my husband is seriously physically disabled and I’m not in the best of health. We could have a boatload of problems from some of the stronger if we are perceived to be prepared and/or weak.
What do you wise-souls recommend? I argue with myself constantly.
I suggest a good 12-gauge. They aint the strong lol :) *LAUGH* I think that you should maybe spread the word but not let them know that you are stocking up.
I would keep my mouth shut. If a pandemic occurs id keep a very low profile and to outsiders Id make it look as thoough you are suffering along with your neighbors. Thats just my two cents,
Somewhere I read that after a very visable year long ad/awareness campain to get people to prep for a earthquake in the San Fransico area they only got 7% to prepare for even three days. Which was only a 3% increase. So Im of the opinion that no matter what the majority wont prep, even if warned. Although I do believe that the officials should be shouting from the rooftops.
“(And how could they not “think of it” when people told how it happened to them during the hurricane evacuations?? We saw what the highways looked like, in the media.)”
Well, that’s what I thought. How could they sit at a meeting and discuss closing ramps and *no one* says Uh, there might be a problem…
They hadn’t thought about the commuters in our area who go into the city each day and would need to get back home either.
Part of the problem is they are thinking they can slip pandemic flu into their All Hazards Plan. A regional health dept official told me that they won’t have a problem because “we do have periodic flooding” and they have to shelter people during flooding. “Pandemic flu will be like any other disaster.”
He seemed truly shocked when I told him that there were major differences like huge numbers of people who would be very ill, many fatalities, hospitals would probably need satellite facilities for flu patients, security for hospitals and their satellite locations, the need to stockpile food and med supplies now, etc.
I’ve offered to to help both of them with info either by phone, or in meetings, and I told them that I’d be glad to do research for them if they needed info.
No calls yet. I’m not holding my breath.
Consider the implications of conflict between actions for isolation efforts like closing exits and whole roads and highways (including comments on blowing bridges,etc.) and the needs of goals of travel for keeping the infrastructure up, like the grid (getting to power lines for maintenance and repair), hospitals (employees and patients), water plants and aqueducts (often way out of town- Los Angeles gets water from northern California, Denver gets water from the western slope of the rockies), delivery of parts, supplies, and other needs. Can anyone think its all gonna work when TSHTF?
Fiddlerdave — I’m not saying this is right but — this is what I recall the “answer” being on a thread discussing this very issue many months ago — cut off the supply of gas to local gas stations (but keep it available to fuel trucks and gov’t vehicles.) People can’t drive but supplies can get around. Keeps all those cars from clocking the hghways, too. )-: Course this would keep people from being able to get to work.
Average Concerned Mom,
I mentioned on another thread that my company is rolling out its pandemic plan in order to remain operational for as long as possible, but they refuse to give their empoyees advice on survival. They will only refer us to www.pandemicflu.gov (which we all recognize as indequate). I have speculated that the lawyers will not let them do anything else for their employees because of the liability issues. This must hold true for nearly every other corporation and government agency, as well.
The very fact that we post our advice here at Flu Wikie would seem to imply that we want everyone to be forewarned and prepared. If it were otherwise, we would not share our knowledge. We would merely lurk. That being true, how should urbanites prepare? What do we tell them?
Here is a thought: if you happen to live in a high-rise, adequate preparation will have to include some stockpiling of fuel for cooking, light, and heat. How do you accomplish this task without violating some code or drawing unwanted attention to yourself? Personally, I am storing 120 gallons of gas, over 400 pounds of propane, 12 gallons of Coleman fuel, and 10 gallons of K-1, but I have a house on an acre, and I have done this rather discretely over a period of several months. If you live in a high-rise, all of your preps will be taken to your home via the elevator. This has the potential to expose you as a prepper and it has the potential to get you evicted for code violations.
My document “Becoming Self-Sufficient” does not address the special needs of those who live in multi-family dwellings, so that would be of limited use here. How about a brand new discussion for brainstorming the urban dilemma? Rather than have millions fleeing the cities, let’s see what advice we can offer them for an urban SIP. Any takers? I nominate anyone from a rural area to kick it off.
DennisC at 18:17 yesterday
Exactly right, Dennis, as far as I know. In fact, I usually say “oldest continuously inhabited European settlement in North America”, but that’s debatable and probably a little pedantic for a satirical treatment. In fact St Aug is the oldest old boy city in the US, if you know what I mean. By the way, I was born in NM myself, my father was born on the Taos res, my grandfather hunted bear for the tribe….
Anyway, on the serious side, as preppers begin to wake up to the reality that digging in and defending themselves from other people who are mostly just trying to feed their kids is a very bad idea, the interest in “community prep” might become central, and perhaps trying to imagine a sane evacuation strategy is a step in that direction.
EveryoneWorksTogether at 18:58
I apologize, Every. You are right that there are people who call themmselves survivalists but who are truly concerned in the survival of all.
Thanks for responding to my posts. Goju would probably want to beat me up in a back alley, BUT, in our circumstance I think we’re safer if I keep prepping and close my mouth. My family is prepping their households too. Oh, and I do have a 12 gauge…among others. There are so many young, soon to be hungry 20-somethings renting around here that I do worry if they can’t get home.
Orlandopreppie
Nobody will blame you if you are confidential about your prepping, especially if you have anything to fear from people in your neighborhood.
