im new to all this so please bear with me,i am just wondering will there be a human pandemic or is it a worry over nothing,and before anyone says i am not trying to upset anyone or cause trouble i am just asking,as i have young children and wonder if i need to prep and what sort of time scale we might be looking at if or when it does happen.i have not done any preps yet and just wonder if ive got enough time left to do them ,as what ive read is a few people seem to beleive that it is really close, the pandemic,and i must admit i am just a little bit worried for my family.so may i ask please how long do you think it might be before the pandemic hits.i understand no one really knows but does anyone have an idea when or how soon.??
The billion dollar question.
You’ve come to the right place to get information. Here there are articles, news stories, and threads by people who can answer almost any question you have. To make a long story short (and I’m a lay person not an expert), most experts, including the World Health Organization and the Center for Disease Control, believe that there will be a pandemic of some sort within the next five to ten years. It could start tomorrow, next month or years from now. No one really knows. Most of the people on this website have chosen to learn how to prepare for such an event in order to do just what you are most concerned about - take care of our families. It’s not too late to start, and I would suggest you search on this site for Food Storage, Water Storage, and Power subjects. There are also a number of emergency supply lists that can get you started. Good luck.
Welcome daddy @15:47
I’ve been her well over a year now and I still ask myself the same question you do all the time. Last year at this time, things were slow and after the first of the year, the Turkey and the Karo cases developed and it looked ominous. And yet, here we are today, not knowing if we are really any closer or not.
Nobody knows. I’ve always been leaning toward the optimistic side and I must say, despite what many are saying here, I continue to be optimistic.
IMHO, there is plenty of time to prep, if that’s what you want to do. There is no time like RIGHT NOW, to start.
daddy, a pandemic will certainly occur, but whether H5N1, or some other virus causes it tomorrow, or at some time in the future is anyone’s guess. Pandemics happen, and 3 occurred in the last 100 years. Currently H5N1 is the most worrisome to the experts. I suggest you read all you can on the subject. pandemicflu.gov and who.int are good starting places.
I also have young children, ages 2 and 5, and have been preparing for pandemic influenza/general emergency preparedness for the last year. I actually started a little bit after 9/11 when my youngest was 9mo old. Start with the basics: water, food, medications, diapers, etc. Think about what you use on a daily basis and items you and your children would require to survive. If you live in a cold climate, you also need to consider alternative heat. There’s a wealth of information here.
Above all, stay informed. If you have specific questions, someone here will likely have an answer or point you in the right direction. It can seem overwhelming at first, but a good start is to pick up an extra few things each week.
First thing to do is look to your right. See the headings there? ok, now click on Pandemic preparedness and start reading. There are other interesting things to your right,too. Fron science to legal issues. Oh, and WELCOME. You are now way ahead of 99% of the rest of the world.
So how’d you find this place? And as to your question…we’re all hoping no but signs point to yes.
Daddy: Welcome! It can be overwhelming, but to get started go to the Fluwikie home page and click on personal preparedness (down from the top a bit) and then on Dr. Dave, the third one. His list is a little intimidating, but the line called “Becoming prepared” is a 199k pdf file that is an 18 page recent and thorough introduction. Print it out. Even if you do not save enough for six months, it is a good checklist and helps someone new get oriented. Don’t forget flu and pneumovax shots. I think Vitamin D (1000 IU + multivitamin for adults) is good too and lots of people like the idea of Sambucol, a black elderberry anti-viral. Good luck and after you have prepped for your family, think about your neighbors. What happens if things get bad and their kids - your neighbors - are hungry and sick? We all have to become missionaries, I’m afraid and we may be wrong. Maybe nothing will happen for some time, but if it does, we will all regret not having done more.
and please ask.. no quiestion are silly, we need some freshing up somtimes:-)
From reading flu wiki it seems that if a pandemic starts it might be anywhere from hours to a couple of weeks before one is exposed. If a pandemic happens we will want to know asap. I have been checking www.PandemicFlu.gov periodicaly just because in the upper right corner the alert status of the world is very clearly stated and can be seen at a glance. There are other sites that better explain what it means. We are presently (Nov 22, 2006) at “phase 3″.
I recognize that I don’t look often enough but at the same time I don’t want to be a slave to worries about “what if”. As of yesterday I have set up an automatic alert to be sent to my email anytime the phrases “the world is presently in phase 4″, “the world is presently in phase 5″, or “the world is presently in phase 6″ are brought up in a google search. So far, google does not get a hit on any of these phrases but does bring up http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html if you search for “the world is presently in phase 3″. This is the first line of the last paragraph on the page. My hope is that WHO will change that line and it will match my search if the alert level goes up. To set-up an automatic alert go to the google home page, click “more”, click “even more”,choose “alerts” and follow the directions.
I am also hopeful that broadcast news will be helpful.
Welcome Daddy! Anyone who takes the time to search the net for information would be wise to be concerned. This is a great place to get help. Time estimates are hard to come by, and many people will walk away from that initial concern when we can’t give a “due date”. We try to read the signs and keep each other from going over the edge. Please don’t let that stop you from preparing. If I had kids I’d hit it fast and hard though.
daddy & lakeman in illinois
Although I can not speak for the other regulars here at Flu Wikie, my preparation efforts are based upon the assumption that time has already run out and that the pandemic will begin next week. So, my advice is that you both spend several hours reviewing the pandemic planning guides here at Flu Wikie and then get shopping. Determine for yourselves what your “SIP” (shelter in place) weakness are and take steps to address them.
Remember that it is not a matter of IF it will happen, it is only a matter of WHEN, and you are runnning out of time.
daddy - Start now. It takes months to get ready for something this major.
water, food, meds, heat, security. in that order. for 3 months min. Your children are at great risk. Start now.
Daddy, Don’t let the big lists overwhelm you. Just try at first to get a two week supply of things, then expand to a month, then at least two months. Think of it as just having an old-fashioned pantry. I have two boys age 6, and I’m concerned, too. It could happen anytime, but I’m putting my money on two years (just an arbitrary number). Definitely not 10! It seems to me I read somewhere that the longest recorded break between pandemics was 42 years. We’re on year 39 now, for what it’s worth.
does anyone know if the drug “ Famvir” is effective as an anti-viral in the case of BF ?
Dr Dave do you really think we are that close? Why, what has given you that reasoning?
Daddy -
No answer on the when & how serious … the analogy I use is the cruise ship model. When you go on a cruise - the big question is: will the ship sink this trip? The more cruises you take, the more likely something will happen to you statistically.
Most likely not *this individual* trip, however, there have been fires/colisions/icebergsin the past, most likely there will be something in the future.
So - that’s why cruise ships have: fire drills, life jackets, life boats, safety equipment.
So, consider the preps for H5N1 (or other pandemic) as *your family’s* personal life boat … as said above, water, food, meds, masks, gloves, etc.
‘Cause when the ship starts to sink, there will not be enough to go around.
best
daddy – at 15:47
Your children are lucky to have a parent like you willing to look something scary in the face and ask questions. Pat yourself on the back.
As tjclaw said, pandemics of influenza will inevitably reoccur among humans- there’s a long recorded history of influenza pandemics in humans.
What makes a flu virus qualify to be a pandemic flu virus?
1. It must be a brand new flu virus, one that the human race has never had before-so no one is immune to it. H5N1 meets this qualification.
2. It must be able to casue disease in humans. Again, H5N1 meets this qualification.
3. It must be able to EASILY spread human to human. H5N1 has not-and hopefully never will-meet this last qualification. Some scientists think it may never form a pandemic, one virologist-Dr Robert Webster in 2005- said he gave it a 50–50 chance.
It’s considered by some a low probablity, high impact event. (As was a category 5 hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast.)
H5N1 was first found in 1997 in Hong Kong.
Some sources ie the US State Dept advocate getting everything you need to live independently or shelter-in-place (SIP) for 2 weeks, some people say 3 months worth (as Dr Webster has done personally) and one scientist Dr. Michael Osterhold of CIDRAP has prepared for a year. Most of us are somewhere in between, as we have the money/desire to do so.
My goal and I’m pretty well there is 3 months.
Good luck, and don’t hesitate to ask questions. All of us have.
Welcome
daddy- ‘i have not done any preps yet and just wonder if ive got enough time left to do them ,as what ive read is a few people seem to beleive that it is really close, the pandemic,and i must admit i am just a little bit worried for my family.’
1.)’i have not done any preps yet’
Don’t worry, that’s where we all started.
2.)’(I)wonder if ive got enough time left to do them’
Many of us are with you on that one, just do what you can every day and know that it’s worth it.
3.)’a few people seem to beleive that it is really close’
We just can’t know for sure, but for the purposes of preparation we must believe that it could happen soon and do our best to see our families and communities safe as quickly as is manageable.
You’re right to be worried for your family, it’s a scary situation we’re facing. There are alot of things you can do though…..start out with food, water, maintenance meds- the basics. There is alot of excellent info on the forum and wiki both, there are links to their indexes on the left sidebar, using them will help you find targeted information. What would your family need for your basic needs for 2 weeks? Take it from there. Do what you can and try not to feel discouraged. As GraceRN and Urdar-Norway said above, ask questions- we’re here to help!
Aaagh!!!!
forgot my formatting:-)
Daddy-
No one knows for sure of the IF and WHEN, but more and more reputable scientists and academics are stepping forward to “sound the alarm”. Why not take this opportunity to make some preparations for your family? :) They won’t go to waste and you will feel better for having done it. Here is an ABC interview with Dr. Robert Webster…”the father of bird flu.” If you have a high speed connection, I would recommend watching it, and I would like to know what you thought of it, if you have the opportunity to watch it. Thanks
Daddy: If money is an issue, you could give pandemic flu related Xmas gifts to people to get them thinking and ask for similar gifts for Christmas too. There are crank lights and cell phone chargers, crank radios, any number of food items, multiple-fuel stoves, etc. Just a thought. Even if nothing happens flu wise (and I think it will), it does not hurt to have some extra on hand. We live in a world where a lot can go wrong.
Dr dave and all others:
I hope I did not give the impression that it is safe to postpone prepping until the beginning of an outbreak. My concern for watching for the beginning is so that one can make last minute preparations as well as when to begin whatever type of sip one has planned. For example, many will get bleach at the last minute because it only has a shelf life of about three months. If you store it now it may lose its effectiveness by the end of a sip. Personally I have HTH on hand to mix fresh bleach as needed. I also have three months provisions stored now and am collecting my provisions for the next three months too. I plan to have a years provisions before I stop stockpiling. I only buy things I use anyway and rotate my stock to maintain its shelf life. To those who may wonder if stockpiling is needed: you may end up using your supplies for any number of possible disasters including a pandemic.
lakeman in illinois – at 17:29
I’m in Illinois too - NW, just off Rt. 88
I have a stupid question — is anyone/everyone still eating chicken and/or eggs? I have been a lurker for a year and started prepping about the same time.
tjclaw1
I see you live in illinois too. I often see others asking to know who lives near them. It is very cool to know that people nearby are preppers too. But what I’m wondering is if there are practical ways for preppers who live close by to help each other?
I live in McHenry County and have an almost two year old and an almost six year old.
Jana Banana, there’s no such thing as a stupid question:-)
I don’t know about everyone ele but I still eat them both. I live in Canada so no BF here yet, but that could happen at any time I guess. I might feel differently if I lived in a country with confirmed H5N1 in birds, even knowing that cooking renders them safe might not overcome the thought of it, if you know what I mean:-) What country do you live in? Do you still feel comfortable eating eggs and chickens?
Dr Dave – at 15:04
Re: “my preparation efforts are based upon the assumption that time has already run out and that the pandemic will begin next week…”
My thinking as well. It also makes me very short-tempered with dealing with all the difficulties I’ve run into getting pandemic prepping started locally.
Sure it could be next week. Or next month, next year..or never (our collective wish)
Problem is-IMHO-when it goes to level 4 (WHO) it could shoot up to level 6 in a very short time. Weeks. Maybe even days if it isn’t contained.
Then there is no time for shopping, prepping or planning. Just reacting.
Siam,
As Grace RN has pointed out, the next few stages could happen in very short order, so it is simply in everyone’s best interest to assume that we are nearly out of time. I have no special insight into this, but I am not going to be unprepared. If it happens next week, I’m ready. If it happens next March, so much the better for everyone else who is still prepping.
Just to clarify this for you, I will not be running out for last minute preps. When level 4 is announced I will stop going to the stores, my kids will be pulled from school, and I will work from home. I feel that this state of readiness is essential for an effective SIP. If you assume that it will start tomorrow you will be motivated to become thoroughly prepared right now. You have to assume that you are out of time or you will not get it done.
Dr. Dave - Don’t know about you, but it has long been my belief that we are already in Phase 4, and from Doc Woodson’s comments on this site and in his new book, so does he. My trigger will be when those small clusters first go beyond that initial group(s), say to HCWs. Maybe Phase 4 should be divided into early and late phases? Rumor has it that WHO is close to announcing Phase 4.
Have done a recent burst of prepping, working myself up to do so again, finances permitting. It has not been a straight line for me. 95% and holding! Lakeman and daddy, don’t forget N95 or 100 masks and gloves! Don’t let it all overwhelm you, we all started small, in my case a few extra cans in September 05! good luck and congratulations on starting out on the journey…
NauticalMan,
I’m right with you at phase 4 and leaning I’m toward phase 6. From a practical perspective, there is no other way to look at it. After all, we sure as heck are not going to back to a phase 2, are we? The arrows are all pointing in the same direction.
Those of you who are just now getting serious about prepping, set some hard and fast deadlines for yourselves and make prepping a way of life.
lakeman – at 19:50
I’ve thought the same thing. I work with someone who is also a prepper, but lives in Davenport. We do place orders for supplies and dehydrated food together to save on shipping. She and I have kids close to the same age as yours. My girls are 2 and 5 (almost 6) and my co-worker’s girls are 3 and 7. I think a lot of the people here have young children.
I’ve been to Woodstock before to visit a friend of mine who is an appellate court judge, I’ve but not been there in a while. I’m in Lee County and work in Rock Island County.
If nothing else, maybe we could start an e-mail tree with other people in the area. If you’re interested, my e-mail is tjclaw1 at hotmail dot com
Jana @ 19:46
My family and I eat eggs and chickens. We don’t see any reason as of yet, not to eat them.
Question… where are the sick people/ where are the deaths?
Daddy – at 15:47 on the 21st. welcome to the fluwiki forum! I have children just as you do, I will ask you these questions: Do you have homeowners insurance? (Your answer is most likely yes) Has your house ever burned down? (Your answer is most likely no) Would you ever consider not having homeowners insurance? (again your answer is mostlikely no) Consider preping for a pandemic or any other emergency as important as having homeowners insurance. It is easy to start, Please don’t feel overwhealmed. (No matter how many times people tell you that you still will be after reading the information on the fluwiki.) I started by just buying one extra thing each shopping trip. Eventually my preps started to build. It is easy, years ago everyone did it. Do you have a pantry or a closet to store extra cans of food? Start filling it. Use the Fluwiki as your guide. And Please print stuff out! If the S***HitsTheFan the net may go down and this valuable resource will be lost to you. Good luck and again, welcome to the forum!
Jana Banana – at 19:46
If you cook your food throughly, you don’t have to worry about catching any virus. Cooking denatures the protien coat of a virus and kills it. If you are worried, don’t eat eggs that are cooked over medium or less, and check the temp. on all your chicken and make sure that it has been cooked thru to the middle.
Or you can be a vegetarian and not worry about meat/eggs having viruses or bacteria in your kitchen at all! E-Z.
BeWell – at 00:01
Nope no viruses, but watch out for the Ecoli in spinach :)
:-)
I haven’t eaten spinach in a long, long time… I stick to kale.
:-) Especially since I heard about Ecoli.
I still eat eggs, and enjoy them. I figure that I might have to go a long time between fresh eggs in the future, and don`t plan to deny myself now. If I lived where I was allowed to have a couple of hens, I would.
Once this goes pandemic, they would be the least of my worries.
Goju,
Do you ever wonder about the people who died with flu-like symptoms who were buried or cremated without adequate testing? I do, and it bothers me. Then you have others who initially tested negative, but later tested positive. How many others nested negative but actually died of H5N1? I think about them and I wonder if the relatively small number of human deaths that have been attributed to H5N1 is misleading. Undoubtedly, there are also some cases in some countries that are being concealed.
I hope I am misinterpreting what I see, but I do not believe the official body count. And that is why I have prepped as though it will begin next week.
Make that “tested” negative, not “nested”.
Dr Dave and Goju: I am very sympathetic to the idea that the H5N1 cases are understated, but say they are triple the roughly 250 official ones. Wasn’t there a calculation that with a few hundred cases we would have the efficient virus appear? It has not, so far as I know. Either it is harder to create it or we are lucky or the count is nearly right? I think Tom DVM is right that this is just a freak virus and will do what it will do. We just cannot know with our present knowledge what it will do and that is really frustrating. I do think there is a real threat that this virus will be the one, but it might be another one in a few years too. That is why we have to balance our fears with the ability to give Thanks for what we have and try to live a “normal” life.
INFOMASS,
After a full year of research and shopping, I would have to say that my life is finally returning to normal. My prepping is just about done, so from here on I will be engaged in a wait and see exercise. I do fear the future, but I am as ready as I can be. Meanwhile, every day is Thanksgiving.
I am usually a lurker, but this is one area I thought I could add some value.
Just a few thoughts for those like Daddy looking at prepping and saying, “How am I ever going to get ready.” These are quick no cost or low-cost recommendations for those who need to figure things out quickly…
- Water: Buy plain bleach to kill bacteria. It loses it effectiveness over 3 to 6 months, but that just means you have to use more to do the job, not throw it away. Plan on using crushed charcoal to remove chemicals. If you can make a fire, you can make your own. Only use the black charred wood, not the white ash. Find some way of filtering the water through compressed cotton (using PVC pipe is a cheap solution). With these three items, you can use water from almost any source. There are much better ways of purifying water (I bought a filtering system and Pool Shock), but you need quick solutions now, then refine your preps as time allows. By the way, if you can make a fire, boiling is always an option. You still need the charcoal.
- Food: Buy rice in the biggest bags you can, buy big sacks of beans too. 5lbs of rice to 1lbs of beans. You need about 400lbs for 3 months. My Costco does not carry big bags of beans, so you may have to go to an ethic store - worst case buy lots of small bags. Buy a variety. Rice and beans are cheap and they provide a very complete protien. Next, buy canned soups, powdered gravy and canned meats/fish to flavor your rice and beans. You need a way of cooking both of these staples - big limitation. Again, if you can make a fire, you are set. This will not be a very exciting fair, but it will give you to confidence that you will not starve if supply chains get disrupted - total cost for a family of four: about $300. After that is done, you can expand to foods you normally eat as time and $$$ allow.
- Heat: Plan on being cold, but plan to stay alive. You can construct an igloo out of mattresses and box springs from your beds and blakets. Heat bricks or rocks next to a fire, wrap in towels and bring them into your in-house shelter. I do not like the idea of having open flames in my home - risk of fire too great versus the desire for light. When it gets dark, it gets dark. I do have a couple flashlights you shake to charge for potty runs in the middle of the night.
- Everything above depends on being able to make a fire, so it may not apply to everyone. If you have source of wood and a yard, you can make this happen. Don’t forget a saw, small sledge hammer and mauls/wedges for splitting wood. I would suggest an axe, but losing a leg in the middle of a pandemic is not worth the risk. For outside fire making, think about what you will do when it rains - how will you maintain the coals out of the rain, keep your wood dry and restart your fire. I am have a couple small propane tanks, a nozzel and striker with extra flints from the plumbing section of my hardware store - about $15 total.
- After that, I would follow the lists referred to by the others. They are excellent.
- By the way, I have a 6 year old and a 9 year old. The above sounds harsh, but my opinion is that you address survival first, then comforts.
Best of luck! You are amoung friends!
By the ways, your friends do know how to spell. Proof reading has become a lost art with the advent of spell-checkers.
INFOMASS, “Wasn’t there a calculation that with a few hundred cases we would have the efficient virus appear?” … I can’t pull the exact number out of my head this morning, but, it was closer to, 1200 (?).
(Tests may not be accurate, depending on how they are done, and if the virus doesn’t match the tests anymore, right?)
And we have no way of knowing what is going on in Africa. (Nor really going on in other countries that consider it a state secret. The US isn’t even making sure the public hears about “LPAI” H5N1 here in birds. Au contraire.) Immune-compromised people may never have cytokine storms, but, may shed the virus for longer; give it more time in a human to make more human-adapted mutations, if I understand correctly.
Hope in WHO levels being timely & true is not a plan. (They already re-wrote the phase definitions once, or we’d have been at phase 4, long ago! They said, last Jan, they now act to contain threats without raising the phase level; for political/economic reasons.)
Dr.Nabarro said, quite a while ago, to prep as if it could break out at any time; think next week. It does take a long time to prep, and even longer to have any of the people around you informed and preparing, (since the govt seems to be going for, What they don’t know won’t hurt them, and by then, they’ll be too busy to find us). People would rather hops govt. reassurances and misdirections are true, than the scary hard truths we may be pointing out; hard to distribute vaccine when they currently don’t have one and you’ll all be, somehow, going through at least 6 to 8 months of pandemic first without, then, it will be rationed and prioritized, if they’ve been able to make one.
Take care of you and your children’s needs; the federal, state, and local govt will doubtless consider you regrettable losses, but are resigned to your tragic fate. Or, are in denial of what the scientists have warned of for years; supply chain failures, current fatality rate or worse with no care; much of a muchness to us which it is. We suffer the consequences, whether we were honestly warned of them or not. Better safe than sorry.
“rather hope govt. reassurances” -some of us can’t even seem to proofread until it goes from the white background to the yellow background and by then, we can’t edit…
Take care. Trying to get ready for an influenza pandemic will at least make households ready for all the smaller emergencies and disasters they currently hope won’t happen or assume someone would provide help for. Maybe we can even prevent a few; if people had more knowledge, fire and first aid equipment handy, ect.
Shoes by the bed and bug-out bags to grab and go would have been handy for the recent factory explosion in Danvers, MA, for one example, where the news was saying neighborhood people had to rush out into the cold night in only their shorts.
daddy, check out the prep threads, and the adjustment reactions. Just knowing we’re in a pandemic alert period gives you an advantage; use it, and welcome. The people here, or at the new forum location, will be hapy to try and talk you through some of this.
daddy Will a pandemic happen? I think the answer is yes, but I don’t know if a pandemic will start this year or in fifty years. I think everybdoy should prep. It is smart to be ready for whatever might happen.
You write just like somebody whose been posting the same kinda questions at curevnts for months. But, you are new to this, so I guess you just write like him.