From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for November 23

23 November 2006

MaMaat 02:22

(If you want any of the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)


Lookout Posts – here are the links (if no Lookout Post exists, it will not be highlighted)

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions or to add news

NoRegion NameNoRegion NameNoRegion Name
1USA8East Africa15Arab Peninsula
2Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Circle9Southern Africa and Madagascar16Central Asia
3Central America and Caribbean10Northwest Europe and British Isles17Southern Asia
4South America and Surrounding Islands11West and Southwest Europe18Mainland East Asia and Japan
5Northern Africa12Central and Southeast Europe19Southeast Asia
6West Africa13Eastern Europe and Baltic Region20Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia
7Central Africa14Middle East and Caucasus Region21Pacific Islands and Antarctic

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)

Separate forum threads for India, Indonesia and Nepal

link to Indonesia wiki page


link to Summary of News for 22 November
link to News Reports For November 22
(From WHO as at 13 Nov - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 258, deaths 153 (2006 – 111 with 76 deaths)

Thanks to all the newshounds!

lugon – at 06:34

And now a short Flu Wiki ad:

I’d like to thank MaMa for helping out at the “good home treatment” translation initiative.

Cheer us up at the apropriate forum thread. ;-)

Klatu – at 10:24

Suspected bird flu outbreak in South Korea; unclear if strain is dangerous to people

The Associated Press Published: November 22, 2006

SEOUL, South Korea: “A suspected case of bird flu has been found in southwestern South Korea, killing around 6,000 chickens and prompting authorities to cull thousands more, officials said Thursday.

Bird flu is not generally harmful to humans, but South Korea’s agriculture ministry hoped to confirm this weekend whether the suspected outbreak might be caused by the H5N1 strain, which can be deadly to people.

“No one has been infected so far, though it could spread to people,” an official at the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or KCDC said. The official from the KCDC, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue, said it will take time to confirm the case.” - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/ykzy2u

Klatu – at 10:27

H5N1 research teams score major victory

Updated Thu. Nov. 23 2006 8:54 AM ET Associated Press

“Three years into the outbreak of the H5N1 avian flu virus, two international teams of researchers scored major scientific credibility points Wednesday when the New England Journal of Medicine published their articles on the diagnosis and treatment of a mere 16 H5N1 patients.”

- excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/yfbk5k

Klatu – at 10:32

Outbreaks Show Bird Flu Virus Is Changing

Forbes.com

11.22.06, 12:00 AM ET

“The virus is always changing, and the mutations that make it more compatible with human transmission may occur at any time,” warn Drs. Robert Webster and Elena Govorkova, both virologists at St Jude’s Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn. Their commentary accompanies reports from Indonesia and Turkey, both published in the Nov. 23 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine.

And, while reports do suggest a rise in human cases over time, Siegel noted that, prior to 1997, no one was keeping close tabs on the epidemiology of H5N1. “I think there may have been previous clusters that might have gone unreported because of a lack of attention — they may have been misdiagnosed as other kinds of flu,” he explained. Underreporting of prior outbreaks means it also impossible to say that the avian flu is mutating in any one direction, Siegel said. “There’s just no way of telling from these clusters that this virus is evolving in the direction of easier transmission — we can’t tell if these clusters are anything new, or if there was a precedent for them,” he said.

Finally, he said, H5N1’s genetic “leap” to human-to-human transmission — if it ever happens — will be much tougher than media reports have let on.”

- excerpt

http://www.forbes.com/forbeslife/health/feeds/hscout/2006/11/22/hscout536220.html

Klatu – at 10:32

Outbreaks Show Bird Flu Virus Is Changing

Forbes.com

11.22.06, 12:00 AM ET

“The virus is always changing, and the mutations that make it more compatible with human transmission may occur at any time,” warn Drs. Robert Webster and Elena Govorkova, both virologists at St Jude’s Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn. Their commentary accompanies reports from Indonesia and Turkey, both published in the Nov. 23 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine.

And, while reports do suggest a rise in human cases over time, Siegel noted that, prior to 1997, no one was keeping close tabs on the epidemiology of H5N1. “I think there may have been previous clusters that might have gone unreported because of a lack of attention — they may have been misdiagnosed as other kinds of flu,” he explained. Underreporting of prior outbreaks means it also impossible to say that the avian flu is mutating in any one direction, Siegel said. “There’s just no way of telling from these clusters that this virus is evolving in the direction of easier transmission — we can’t tell if these clusters are anything new, or if there was a precedent for them,” he said.

Finally, he said, H5N1’s genetic “leap” to human-to-human transmission — if it ever happens — will be much tougher than media reports have let on.”

- excerpt

http://www.forbes.com/forbeslife/health/feeds/hscout/2006/11/22/hscout536220.html

Klatu – at 10:44

Iksan, North Cholla Province, Korea (suspected BF outbreak)

Klatu – at 10:55

Experts discuss flu, lung disease control

(23–11–2006)

Vietnam News Agency

HA NOI —” Local and international experts gathered in Ha Noi yesterday, to share experiences on the correct use of artificial ventilators for patients suffering with bird flu and lung diseases.

The Government has also just recently approved the purchase of 1,000 respirators for hospitals.” - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/yzhl5a

DennisCat 11:15

SOMALIA

Unidentified birds raise avian flu fears

Dozens of unidentified birds have been found dead in a village in the Middle Shabelle region, south-central Somalia, raising fears of an outbreak of bird flu in the country, according to local sources in the regional capital Jowhar, 90 km north of the national capital, Mogadishu.

“Fifty-two birds arrived in the village of Eil Baraf [50 km dead north of Jowhar] 10 days ago,” said Muhammad Ibrahim Malimow, a local resident. “They looked like ducks, so no one paid them any attention until they started dying.” He said this raised fears among the locals who “raised the alarm”. According to specialists, migratory birds play an important role in the spread of the deadly H5N1 flu virus…..

“the birds all had tags with Orint. Institute, Zagreb Croatia on them, which tells us that they were migratory birds from that country.” He said by the time his team got to the village the birds were decomposing, “and would not lend themselves to proper examination so we burned them to avoid the possibility of spreading anything”. …. http://tinyurl.com/yxten5

cottontop – at 11:15

Bird Flu: Human H5N1 vaccine in lab-Nha Trang, Vietnam

The Nha Trang Institute of vaccones and Biological Products, Vietnam, has announced that it has successfully produced 5,000 does of the H5N1 vaccine for humans from chicken embroys, which is currently being validated by the Ministry of Health before possible human trials.

www.spiritindia.com

BeWellat 11:46

Klatu – at 10:32

There was a discussion of Seigel on CE last night. The concensus seemed to be that he is a feel good masseur who professionally spreads the word of “everything’s gonna be just fine” in order to sell books.

I never read anything by him other than quotes on CE so I am just passing on what I read over there.

BeWellat 12:13

Bird Flu Diagnosis May Require More Patient Samples, Study Says

By John Lauerman

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) — Diagnosing the lethal bird flu spreading in Asia can be difficult using standard techniques, and doctors should collect numerous samples from patients to ensure that results are accurate, researchers said.

Rapid tests of samples taken from patients’ noses and upper throats gave inaccurate results, Turkish doctors said in a study to be published tomorrow in the New England Journal of Medicine. Tests that used more genetic material from the H5N1 viruses correctly showed the infection, they said.

Quick, accurate diagnosis of H5N1 avian influenza is crucial to getting treatment for the disease with Roche Holding AG’s Tamiflu and other antivirals, said Robert Webster, a St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital influenza expert. The H5N1 bird flu attacks cells deep within patients’ lungs, causing infections that have been mostly lethal.

`In general, it’s a good idea to collect several specimens from each patients on multiple days, Timothy Uyeki, a U.S. government epidemiologist who co-wrote a separate article in the same journal, said in a telephone interview today. `If the patient has H5N1 infection, that’s going to give you a better chance of finding it.

Waiting five to seven days after a person has caught the virus to give treatment can render drugs ineffective and help the virus consistently overcome medications, Webster said in a commentary in the same journal.

Patients Hospitalized

The bird flu strain struck people in Turkey on the last day of 2005, when the first of eight H5N1 patients were hospitalized in the eastern city of Van, researchers led by Ahmet Oner of Yuzuncu Yil University in Van said in a Journal study.

Four of those patients had originally tested negative for the virus with a rapid, 30-minute flu test and an antibody diagnostic, called ELISA, the study said.

`Our experience suggests that ELISA and rapid influenza tests have limited value in diagnosing H5N1 infection,’‘ said the researchers, who included co-authors from Refik Saydam Hygiene Institute and Hacettepe University in Ankara.

More detailed tests that involve growing the virus and boosting the amount of genetic material available for testing should be used to find cases, they said.

The World Health Organization is coordinating an international effort to understand and quell a massive outbreak of H5N1 bird flu before the virus mutates into a form that might be contagious among humans, as researchers have said may happen. The virus is known to have infected 258 people in 10 countries, killing 153 of them, mostly through contact with infected poultry, according to the WHO.

Possible Human Spread

Nine of those countries have seen bird flu infections clustered among family members, said Uyeki, an epidemiologist at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That might indicate possible human spread or some genetic vulnerability to the virus among closely related people, he said.

Working with health officials from Indonesia’s Ministry of Health, the U.S. Navy and the University of Hong Kong, Uyeki investigated three clustered outbreaks in Indonesia in 2005 that included three children with relatively mild cases of H5N1.

Researchers have been looking for mild cases that might suggest that the virus, which has killed almost 60 percent of those infected, is less lethal to people and more contagious than current statistics indicate, Uyeki said.

Earlier studies that have attempted to find mild cases have been unsuccessful, and researchers need to make sure they get accurate test results from people who might have been exposed to H5N1 to find such cases, he said.

`We need additional studies to look for people who may have antibodies to H5N1 that would suggest asymptomatic or mild infections,’‘ Uyeki said. To contact the reporter on this story: John Lauerman in Boston at jlauerman@bloomberg.net .

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?…efer=healthcare

BeWellat 12:15

(If this was already posted on FW, sorry! I didn’t see it anywhere.)

Wolf – at 12:32

Henry Niman 11 23 06 (apologies to Klatu - his are much prettier)

	Commentary

Highly Likely H5N1 On South Korean Farms Recombinomics Commentary November 23 2006

According to the ministry, 6,000 of 13,000 chickens at the farm died between Sunday and yesterday. After an initial investigation, the quarantine service said bird flu was the suspected cause. The final test results will be announced on Saturday, but experts at the service said the virus was “highly likely” to be a virulent strain transmissible to humans.

The above comments support the outbreak of the H5N1 Qinghai strain in South Korea. The last reported outbreak of H5N1 in South Korea was in late 2003. That was followed by an outbreak of closely related H5N1 in Japan in early 2004. Sequences from these isolates were subsequently found in the Qinghai isolates from Qinghai Lake in May of 2005, supporting acquisition of these multiple polymorphisms via recombination.

The sequences in the Qinghai strain could be traced to the H5N1 in Korea/Japan, as well as low path H5 in Europe and southeast Asia and high path H5N1 in Shantou in southeastern China.

The fixing of the Qinghai H5N1 strain in long range migratory birds at Qinghai Lake was followed by H5N1 outbreaks in southern Siberia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan in the summer of 2005. The Qinghai strain subsequently spread to India, Afghanistan, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Although the majority of H5N1 isolated in southern China was the Fujian strain, the detection of only one Qinghai isolate was largely due to selective surveillance, which was focused on H5N1 in feces in live poultry markets. The predictions of a wave of the Fujian strain displacing the Qinghai strain is unlikely, although such a scenario was mention in the recent PNAS paper on the spread of the Fujian strain in southern China.

2006 isolates of H5N1 in Afghanistan, Mongolia, and Tyva in southern Siberia have been Qinghai, signaling the continued dominance of Qinghai in migratory birds, which are the likely source of the outbreak in South Korea. Similarly, the sequence of the H5N1 from the recent fatal infection in Egypt was also the Qinghai strain, signaling more Qinghai outbreaks this season in Europe, the Middle East and Africa in birds and people

H5N1 evolves via recombination, so the sequence database provides a history of transmission and dual infections involving H5N1. This database predicts that the isolates in South Korea will share many polymorphisms with the 2006 isolates in Mongolia and Tyva. However, many additional serotypes (H3N2, H6N1, H9N2) were found in live markets in South Korea, so sharing of polymorphisms with these isolates is also possible.

These predictions, however, are dependent on a complete and robust sequence database. The current public database is heavily biased by partial and withheld sequences, as well as poor surveillance. The detection of just one Qinghai isolate in eastern China is but one of many examples of poor surveillance. This is compounded by the multiple partial H5N1 sequences that have been deposited for Asian isoaltes collected between 1999 and 2006. Although the sequences have been published, and a free sequencing program is available through NIAID, the labs publishing the data have elected to withhold the samples and sequences.

This behavior should cease. These hoarding labs act as consultants to the WHO, and therefore are mailed samplesfrom around teh world for confirmation. The confirmed samples are used to isolate and sequence H5N1, but the sequencing labs control the data and contribute to a WHO sponsored private database at Los Alamos that can be accessed by a handful of WHO consultingb labs. Since most of the sequences have been released in partial form or discussed in peer review publications, the excuses used to hoard the data are no longer operative.

St Jude and the University of Hong Kong have collected most of the published H5N1 sequences. The partial sequences include isolates from 1999 through 2006 and have been discussed in multiple publication. Moreover, St Jude has used the NIAID program to generate and release over 1000 flu sequences, but all released data are from sequences other than H5N1. Similarly, the WHO affiliate lab in Weybridge is hoarding over 1000 of the sequences from the H5N1 outbreaks in late 2005 and early 2006 in Europe and the Middle East, including human sequences with important receptor binding domain changes, some of which have also been discussed in peer reviewed publications.

The continued hoarding of these sequences prevents independent confirmation of data presented in the peer reviewed papers in high profile journals such as Nature, Science, and PNAS as well as more specialized journals such as Emerging Infectious Diseases, Virology, and Journal of Virology.

These WHO affiliated labs have maintained that the changes in H5N1 sequences are due to random mutations, and future vaccine targets cannot be predicted. However, the public sequence data includes obvious examples of recombination, and most of the “random mutations” are readily found in prior sequences, supporting acquisitions of the “point mutations” by recombination.

The hoarding of these sequences, including those that were described years ago, undermines the underlying concept of peer review, which demands independent confirmation. On a more short term, practical level, the hoarded data limits the generation of current PCR primers or selection of appropriate vaccine targets.

The hoarded sequences were largely generated by public funds from samples collected by public health agencies. The withholding of the sequences for years, as H5N1 rapidly evolves, should not be tolerated by the funding agencies, or the public, which funds the funding agencies.

Media sources

Phylogenetic Trees

anon_22 – at 12:32

The best test (highest yield) is still RT-PCR from throat swab.

aurora – at 12:38

“There was a discussion of Seigel on CE last night. The concensus seemed to be that he is a feel good masseur who professionally spreads the word of “everything’s gonna be just fine” in order to sell books.”

Yes, he’s been spewing this stuff since I’ve been following avian influenza. I wonder how many people buy into this and will not prepare.

Mary in Hawaii – at 12:47

from Wolf at 12:32, this prediction from Henry Niman: “H5N1 evolves via recombination, so the sequence database provides a history of transmission and dual infections involving H5N1. This database predicts that the isolates in South Korea will share many polymorphisms with the 2006 isolates in Mongolia and Tyva. However, many additional serotypes (H3N2, H6N1, H9N2) were found in live markets in South Korea, so sharing of polymorphisms with these isolates is also possible.”

Let’s save this bold prediction of recombination and see how accurate it is when/if the sequences from this latest SK outbreak are published. If this presumed Qinghai strain of H5N1 recombines with the local serotypes of H3N2, H6N1 or H9N2 what would we expect to get? Are these forms of flu highly transmissable in humans or are they largely avian?

Wolf – at 12:54

Mary in Hawaii – at 12:47 By all means, let’s save these predictions.

(As is it, will be awhile before we get the info tho. )

THAT’S what bugs me.

Meantime Happy Thanksgiving, All!

Walrus – at 15:14

I’m starting to believe sequences are being hoarded deliberately to avoid giving Dr. Niman the data he needs to prove his theory, and thereby keep the”mutation” theory alive while its teachers rapidly back pedal towards recombination.

If, by this action, the building of accurate fast tests for H5N1, let alone the development of an effective vaccine is delayed by just one day, then the hoarders should not only be prosecuted, but removed from laboratories and positions of authority, and their supposed profession permanently and totally.

I’ve worked in Universities at the cutting edge of research and while I’ve met some brilliant and high minded people, I’ve also met so called “scientists” in medical research institutions who were the worst low-life, evil, lying, conniving, violent, thieving excuses for human beings I’ve ever met. Stealing samples, plagiarising and cheating were second nature to some of them.

I have no doubt that some sequences are being hoarded to settle old scores and advance careers.

FrenchieGirlat 15:46

NEWS - IVORY COAST - Africa must join fight against bird flu-WHO - Thu 23 Nov 2006 19:25:18 GMT - (Adds new cases discovered in Ivory Coast) - http://preview.tinyurl.com/ybym7u

‘’JOHANNESBURG, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Africa must find resources to back international efforts to stop the spread of bird flu and help prevent a human pandemic, the World Health Organisation said on Thursday, as Ivory Coast declared a new outbreak.


Comment - Did I not mention last week that the Prime Minister was in bed with flu on his birthday and that members of Government came to bring him their best wishes? I do hope his “ordinary flu” and the one he may have passed on to his Government members is not going to mix with H5N1 (if the news above refer to H5N1 - will keep looking in the French Google).

FrenchieGirlat 15:59

Comment With reference to Ivory Coast above - I have looked at the French Google and Yahoo and could not find anything. Will search some more tomorrow.

Pixie – at 16:34

Public urged to prepare for flu pandemic [UK]

James Sturcke / Wednesday November 22, 2006 / Guardian Unlimited / http://tinyurl.com/y95zbs

The civil servant charged with coordinating Britain’s response to emergencies has told the public to be ready for a possible flu pandemic.

Bruce Mann, the head of the Cabinet Office’s civil contingencies secretariat, yesterday urged people to consider how their families would be likely to be affected by an outbreak, which scientists believe is likely to happen in the near future.

Mr Mann appealed for companies to come forward with information about the proportion of staff they believe would be absent during a pandemic.

“People need to think about what they would do in the most likely circumstances,” he said, adding that there was a “remote possibility” power outages could be a consequence of worker shortages.

He said people should think how their ability to go to work would be affected by school closures or other restrictions likely to be introduced in the event of a pandemic.

However, he said they should “absolutely not” turn to the internet to buy stocks of prescription-only anti-viral drugs such as Tamiflu, which are thought to offer some protection against the worst effects of a flu outbreak.

Mr Mann said the “most fundamental” government reaction to any pandemic - which experts consider would be likely to start in Asia - would be “to communicate”.

“When the first case of pandemic flu is discovered in the world, the first thing the government will do is communicate about what is known about the disease and get out the facts needed for decision making,” he said. “We will also tell people what they can do to protect themselves.”

<snip>

Earlier this week, a report by the Royal Society and the Academy of Medical Sciences was highly critical of the government’s failure to act on scientific advice.

The document proposed that an independent flu specialist should be appointed to advise the cabinet committee on flu pandemic planning alongside the chief medical officer and the chief scientific adviser.

Pixie – at 16:37

UK Fluwikians - who do you think Bruce Mann, the head of the Cabinet Office’s civil contingencies secretariat, might be equivalent to in rank in the U.S.A.? Is this the equivalent of someone like Leavitt, Secretary of Health & Human Services, offering this warning, or is it more like a CDC or a FEMA person in the U.S. offering this warning?

aurora – at 17:15

I think it’s close to FEMA…

“Head of the Civil Contingencies Secretariat Bruce Mann What are our key responsibilities?

The Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS) guides and co-ordinates the activity taking place across government departments and wider stakeholders to ensure that the UK is resilient to any event which could pose a disruptive challenge to the welfare and day to day activities of the UK. This could include the impacts of natural hazards such as flooding and foot and mouth disease, major accidents as well as the consequences of terrorist activity.”

The main areas of activity are:

    * Co-ordinating assessment of risks which could pose a disruptive challenge to the UK
    * Co-ordinating development of generic capabilities to deal with the consequences of disruptive challenges through a cross-Government Capabilities Programme.
    * Implementing legislation to support civil resilience in the UK.
    * Providing a centre of excellence for training on Emergency Planning at our Emergency Planning College.
    * During a crisis , co-ordinating consequence management to support the Government’s response.

We also provide the public with factual information about preparing for emergencies [Preparing for Emergencies website].”

http://tinyurl.com/yj55td

(Is there a course a person takes to learn to translate the English language that we mortals speak into the above?…)

Pixie – at 18:06

For FrenchieGirl - here you go, Ivory Coast is confirmed:

Ivory Coast records bird flu caseFrom correspondents in Abidjan

November 24, 2006 06:15am / Article from: Agence France-Presse / http://tinyurl.com/y2seah

AN isolated case of bird flu has been discovered in turkeys in Ivory Coast, the first since the last outbreak in the capital six months ago.

“Results of samples … from two turkeys that died November 9, made it possible to detect on November 17, an isolated case of avian flu caused by the H5N1 virus,” the livestock production ministry said.

The tests were carried out at a veterinary laboratory in Bingerville, near Abidjan. The two turkeys came from a livestock camp on a village on the outskirts of Abidjan. Health and sanitary measures have been put in place and people exposed to the birds are under medical supervision, said the government.

DennisCat 20:54

This is about S Korea events. Not too much new info. I am just posting the link because it has a few pictures of the operation.

New Bird Flu Outbreak Suspected in Iksan Thursday it suspects bird flu broke out at a poultry farm in Iksan, North Jeolla Province and is conducting tests. The government thinks the latest case is of a virulent strain that can spread to humans. As a preventive measures, the ministry culled 6,000 chickens at the farm and closed nearby hatcheries. Two hundred and four farms in a 10 km radius around the farm have been quarantined. No human infections were reported

http://tinyurl.com/t8q72

DennisCat 21:05

Here is a article by Webster. Notice it also includes a power point presentation.

‘’‘H5N1 Influenza — Continuing Evolution and Spread

Robert G. Webster, Ph.D., and Elena A. Govorkova, M.D., Ph.D. ‘’‘

We simply don’t know when it will occur or whether it will be caused by the H5N1 avian influenza virus. But given the number of cases of H5N1 influenza that have occurred in humans to date (251 as of late September 2006) and the rate of death of more than 50%, it would be prudent to develop robust plans for dealing with such a pandemic….

 China is the hypothetical epicenter for the emergence of H5N1 clades and subclades. The H5N1 viruses are being perpetuated in the domestic birds of the region, despite the use of universal vaccination of all domestic poultry…

http://tinyurl.com/w2bbg

Tiger Lily – at 22:30

Comment: I hope we continue to hear more from this journalist, Mark Honigsbaum as-well-as Professor White.


A dead parrot is no joke Just because bird flu isn’t making as many headlines this year doesn’t mean the threat has gone away.

November 21, 2006

Remember the deceased parrot from Surinam discovered in a quarantine premises in Essex last autumn? Or the ex-finches found in the same quarantine facility a few days later? What about the body of the swan that washed up decomposed in Fife later the same winter? Thought not.

<snip>

So why haven’t we read similar stories about swans keeling over in European lakes this autumn or parrots expiring in quarantine? Was it all a bad Monty Pynthon-esque joke, or were the headline writers right to sound all those Hitchcockian warnings about the birds?

The answer is probably yes, for the fact is animal health experts still don’t know precisely why there was such a surge in cases of H5N1 in migratory birds in Europe last autumn and why so far we haven’t seen a similar pattern this year. Meanwhile, in south-east Asia where the virus continues to circulate, infecting both poultry and people, there are signs that the H5N1 is becoming resistant to the anti-flu drug Tamiflu - hence yesterday’s warning from the Royal Society and the Academy of Medical Sciences that we urgently need to stockpile Relenza as a second line of defence.

<snip>

The most likely explanation is that the surge in infections in wild birds last winter resulted from the mass die-off of swans observed at Lake Qinghai in China the previous summer - the biggest spill-over to date of H5N1 from ducks and other wildfowl, who harbour the virus.

One theory is that H5N1 was spread from China by geese migrating to Siberia, and from there it was spread by other birds migrating to Kazakhstan, Russia and Europe. But another little-reported theory is that the pattern most closely mirrored the route of the trans-Siberian express, suggesting that the agency was human rather than avian.

But do we really need to concern ourselves with a virus that has so far killed just 153 people worldwide, the majority of them in south-east Asia? After all malaria kills 1.1 million people every year but because it mainly afflicts people in sub-Saharan Africa we rarely give it a moment’s thought.

According to Nick White, professor of Tropical Medicine at Oxford University and an expert on malaria, the answer unfortunately is yes. Delivering the annual science lecture on Monday at London’s Natural History Museum, Professor White, who divides his time between Oxford and Thailand, one of the countries worst affected by bird flu, argued that while people in the UK might be at a greater risk of dying from obesity or smoking-related illnesses, the media was surely right to be paranoid about bird flu. The reason is that the scale of the potential catastrophe is so immense. Between 20–40 million people died in the 1918 flu pandemic but White points out that due to the speed of jet travel if H5N1 does mutate to become highly infectious between people it could spread around the world in a matter days, infecting billions. In other words, it’s not the birds we should fear so much as our fellow human beings.

That is why this week White backed the Royal Society’s call for the stockpiling of Relenza and joined the inquiry panel in urging the government to pay more attention to the advice of its scientific experts. He also thinks we should be considering more “cheap and dirty” solutions - such as faster quarantining - in the event that the present drugs prove inadequate.

His conclusion? “Diseases of poor countries can become our problem if we don’t take appropriate action.” You have been warned.

http://tinyurl.com/yepvyx

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