Old thread is here
Here are the last few postings from the previous thread
Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 01:15
Courtesy of the CDC. While researching Central America, I stumbled across the figure that 50 million people contract dengue every year.
In 2005, dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans; its global distribution is comparable to that of malaria, and an estimated 2.5 billion people live in areas at risk for epidemic transmission (Figure 4). Each year, tens of millions of cases of DF occur and, depending on the year, up to hundreds of thousands of cases of DHF. The case-fatality rate of DHF in most countries is about 5%, but this can be reduced to less than 1% with proper treatment. Most fatal cases are among children and young adults.
Goju – at 19:33 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-223059,curpg-1.cms
Tamiflu helped avert outbreak of bird flu
NEW DELHI: The deadly H5N1 bird flu virus that hit India in February 2006 was sensitive to Tamiflu, the drug which many governments including India used to ward off a deadly bird flu pandemic. Genetic and DNA sequencing of the virus collected from Jalgaon and Navapur by scientists from Bhopal’s High Security Animal Disease Laboratory, has revealed that the virus contained several types of amino acids - glutamic acid, asparigine, histidine and arvinone - that made it sensitive to Tamiflu. This, scientists say, helped India avert a possible transmission of the deadly H5N1 virus from birds to humans.
Scientists B Patnaik and C Tosh, who have completed sequencing the genes HA1 and HA2 of the virus and studying the 10 proteins, specially HA and NA present in the virus, told TOI that “timely administering of Tamiflu to those who were quarantined on suspicions of having been in contact with H5N1 virus infected birds, helped us avert the transmission of the virus to humans. DNA analysis of the virus has shown it to be highly sensitive to Tamiflu”. According to lab chief H K Pradhan, some countries including Vietnam have reported that the virus circulating there is resistant to Tamiflu making its containment even more difficult.
“Our DNA tests, conducted of the HA, NA, NS1 and PV2 proteins, showed the virus that hit India was capable of infecting mammals, including humans. Therefore, a Tamiflu resistant virus would have resulted in people being infected by the bird flu virus easily, ultimately resulting in their mortality.”
The scientists have made another interesting discovery. They say the virus that hit India, specially the one that was isolated from the outbreak in Navapur, had mutated and undergone a re-assortment in Turkey. This means that the virus, which had originated in Qinghai (central China), was carried to Turkey by migratory birds. Here, the virus mutated and mixed with the Vietnamese strain. The mixed strain was then brought to India by migratory birds. This phenomenon of being hit by a re-assorted virus has not been reported from any other country over the past four years.
“The influenza virus mutates quickly. So did the H5N1 virus that came to India. Turkey is one of the few countries where both the Chinese and Vietnamese strain have been found. “The virus that was found in Navapur was a mixed strain. That’s why we believe the mixing happened in Turkey. While the NA was the Vietnamese type, the HA was Chinese,” Pradhan added.
Goju 19:33
I read your post and was looking around for more information. I found these articles and they are awfully long to post here. My question to anyone who takes the time to read these as they are long is this: Does the first link dated August 2006 seem to be in conflict with the other three? The first link mentions Navapur. The last one from SEARO in July doesn’t even mention a vaccine as far I can tell. The first seems to indicate difficulties with “manufacturing” a vaccine. The second and third use the word “develop” a vaccine.
I apologise if this is all old news to you all. I was reading and this just seems conflicting or maybe it is nothing at all and just me I am by no means scientific. I appreciate any input I receive on this. Thank you.
Comment: I’m copying this post by Tally Prepper at 8:51 on the Oct. 31 News Thread here since we’ve been following the story in Nepalgunj, Nepal, on this thread. Nepalgunj is where 6 suspected dengue patients did not test positive for dengue, followed by the apparent infection of 16 medical staff at the Nepalgunj medical university also being suspected of dengue, to which several hospitalized medical professors had also tested negative. This new story occurs on the outskirs of Nepalgunj:
NEPALGUNJ, Nepal
Mystery illness kills at least 20 in Nepal
Mon 30 Oct 2006 10:11 PM ET KATHMANDU, Oct 31 (Reuters) - A mysterious disease has killed at least 20 people in two villages of west Nepal over the past 10 days, and hundreds more are sick, a health official said on Tuesday. “People suddenly catch high fever, start shivering, faint and then die,” said Ram Bahadur Chand, a senior official the district public health office in Nepalgunj, 321 km (201 miles) west of the capital, Kathmandu. Local media reports put the death toll at 36 from four remote villages near Nepalgunj. “We have 20 confirmed deaths so far and more than 300 people are suffering from the unknown disease,” Chand told Reuters. He said 200 blood samples had been collected and medical workers had reached the affected villages. Each year Nepal’s rickety health infrastructure run by a mere 1300 doctors in 87 hospitals around the country deals with hundreds of thousands of cases of pneumonia, cholera, fever, diarrhoea and tuberculosis. Many of the poor Himalayan nation’s 26 million people are either unable to afford the cost of medical treatment or do not have access to basic health care.
http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=B145880
Unknown disease claims 36 lives in Banke
Thirty-six people have died due to an unknown disease that has spread in four village development committees of mid western Banke district in the last two weeks.
The number of patients who are suffering from the disease has risen to 500. The toll has risen to 23 in Phattehpur VDC, 10 in Gangapur VDC, two in Narainapur and one in Chauferi village.
According to newspaper reports, most of those dead are children and the aged. Over 36 people are in a critical condition.
According to locals, viral fever, body ache, shivering and sudden unconsciousness are some of the symptoms of the “mysterious ailment”.
The locals said, almost every household in these villages has at least one member suffering from the mysterious disease.
Head of the epidemic control programme in the District Public Health Office (DPHO) Banke, Ram Bahadur Chand, confirmed that 36 people have died due to the epidemic in the last one week across the Rapti.
Even though the DPHO dispatched a team, blood tests could not be done due to the absence of electricity, as a result, the disease could not be identified. Blood samples have been taken from some people and medicines given to them, The Himalayan Times Daily quoted assistant health worker Narayan Sharma as saying.
Locals have accused the government of being indifferent to their plight. nepalnews.com pb Oct 31 06
:-(
Nepalgunj is in the Banke region. The two news reports above at 9:40 and 9:43 are happening in the same general area.
Thanks Pixie for the map - My sister is in Kathmandu and I haven’t heard from her in over two weeks. Normally that would be as expected but with everything going on up there, I’m worried. I can see from the map that she’s far from that area so again, thanks. Still worried though… :-(
Worried for *us* too, ftm!
Folks, we really need to watch Nepal now.
Enza, you are so right. I sense it out there gathering. Nepal is the worst news we could get…if it pans out as true. I keep expecting to see the swan’s feet up every time I come here to the wikie these days.
Same story as above, but with additional case information (age, sex, relationships).
Banke mystery disease toll rises to 36
Tuesday, October 31,2006
BANKE: An unknown disease spreading in four village development committees across Banke’s Rapti has taken 36 lives so far. The number of patients who are suffering from the disease has risen to 500.
The toll has risen to 23 in Fattehpur VDC, 10 in Gangapur VDC, two in Narainapur and one in Chauferi village. Most of those dead are children and the aged. Over 36 people are in a critical condition. Medicines are in short supply. Those who can afford treatment are visiting Bheri zonal hospital and hospitals in India.
Three sons of Sarif Khan at Piprahawa in Fattehpur VDC died three days ago. One Bhaigeni Ahir’s 13-year-old son Ram Oasis Ahir and 16-year-old daughter Kushmi Ahir died yesterday. Baismali Budhamagar, 52, died in Fattehpur VDC yesterday. Her neighbour, 44-year-old Krishna Bahadur Gharti, had died five days ago.
Seven persons at Fattehpur - 6 Jhagariya and three in Fattehpur ward number 1 died within a week. According to assistant health worker in the Gangapur health post, Narayan Sharma, 10 persons have died in Gangapur VDC. Head of the epidemic control programme in the District Public Health Office (DPHO) Banke, Ram Bahadur Chand, confirmed that 36 people have died due to the epidemic in the last one week across the Rapti.
Even though the DPHO dispatched a team, blood tests could not be done due to the absence of electricity and, as a result, the disease could not be identified. Blood samples have been taken from some people and medicines given to them, AHW Sharma said.
“I informed the DPHO about the situation on Friday, but the team arrived here today. The disease is still unknown,” Sharma told this daily.
Nasaruddin Seikh of Fattehpur 5 Piprahawa, said: “All in my family are sick. People are dying. People can save their lives if doctors and medicines start coming.” Locals have accused the government of being indifferent to their plight.
Hope they have plenty of Tamiflu
Multiple family members ill and dying. Hopefully coincidence and not H2H.
Could be Japanese Encephalitis. Checked the CDC website and map shows Nepal as “hyperendemic from July-December”. Link: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/jencephalitis/risk-table.htm
It cannot be transmitted H2H. Nor can Malaria. Both are transmitted via mosquitos, a different species for each disease.
Homesteader- at 18:11
I hope it is Japanese Encephalitis. But, if it is Japanese Encephalitis, why is it a “mystery illness”? Presumably these folks, the villagers, their elders, the news media locally, and the local doctors have all seen Japanese Encephalitis before. Why would there be a story of hundreds sick, scores (almost) dying from a known/expected disease in the region?
I want to be wrong, but I am getting the strongest sense these last few days/weeks that it is coming for us now…
Dear mcjohnston92,
I know, I know. I posted the info because I want to be wrong as well. The dead/dying family members maybe in retrospect, a dead giveaway. Pardon the pun. I’m trying but finding it very hard to visualize the scenario as it is described being caused by mosquito bites, however, maybe that falls under “hyperendemic”. I hope.
This is a comment made by a moderator at the Pro Med site. It eased my fears a little. Hope it does the same for you. But I do agree with mcjohnston92. If it were any of these diseases, they should not be mystified.
[While searching for a map of the affected area (Banke district), this moderator came upon a map prepared by Relief Web showing the areas affected by flooding in the beginning of September 2006. (A map of Nepal showing the district Banke and it’s position in the country can be found at [see website for link] With the history of recent flooding, there is the likelihood of increases in vectors such as mosquitoes. There is also the possibility that the above-mentioned “mystery disease” is malaria or dengue fever. Other possibilities would include influenza (although respiratory illness is not described) and Japanese encephalitis, as frequently the description of “viral fever” has been applied to both diseases in lay press reports from Nepal. The wording of the newswire (some of which we have edited out) is suggestive of wording used in other newswires from prior “mystery illness” reports from Nepal, indicating that this report came from a relatively remote area with limited access to basic health infrastructure. Clearly, more information on the etiology of this outbreak from knowledgeable sources would be appreciated.]
I’m so sorry I don’t have time to do this (too busy working on panflu preparedness plans and exercises —how ironic), but could someone please check to see if and how today’s news ties in with the October 15 news from Nepal about another ‘mystery illness’. The 2 week lag time is sending off alarm bells in my head.
I’d like to quiet them down ;-)
October 14th http://tinyurl.com/ye5xn5
Mystery disease’ claims eight lives in Dadeldhura
At least eight people have died of an unknown disease in a single VDC in the far-western district of Dadeldhura.
Several dozen people in Belapur VDC have been infected with the disease over the last two weeks, reports said. The disease has symptoms like severe headache, fever and cough. Eight deaths have so far been confirmed in the VDC.
October 12th http://tinyurl.com/y8aknz
Team to be dispatched to test dengue cases Following unsubstantiated reports by hospitals in Nepalgunj about dengue patients, the government is preparing to dispatch a team of experts.
The Department of Health Services is dispatching a team led by Dr. Garib Das Thakur, a senior official at the Epidemiology and Disease Control Divistion to Nepalgunj on Thursday to test the suspected patients
From October 15th news thread:
‘Mystery’ disease kills 8 in Nepal
Kathmandu | October 15, 2006 11:15:06 AM IST An outbreak of an unidentified “mystery” disease in a remote village claimed eight lives including four children in far west Nepal in the past two weeks, a newspaper reported Sunday.
<snip>]
According to the newspaper, those who died showed “strange symptoms” that included headaches and respiratory problems.
Quoting local people, the newspaper reported that the victims died “wherever they caught the deadly disease”.
“Some died while working in the farms, while others fell dead while grazing cattle,” the newspaper reported.
<snip>
Dadeldhura is in the western portion of Napal and around 120 miles (as the crow flies) from the Banke district.
Sounds like the doctors are working on the assumption that it is malaria. Also sounds like they are taking it very serious and sending a good size team to address it.
Medical teams leave for Banke Himalayan News Service Banke, October 31:
Teams of medical professionals today left for remote villages of Banke district affected by an undiagnosed disease, District Public Health Office (DPHO) Banke said. An 11-member team led by Dr Kumar Sanshah left for the affected VDCs including Fattehpur, Gangapur and Narainapur, chief of Epidemic Disease Control Program of DPHO, Ram Bahadur Chand said. An eight-member team led by Dr Jeewan Pradhan left for Holiya VDC. The teams have taken equipment necessary for blood tests and administering medicines adequate for around 500 patients. The disease has not been diagnosed yet but medical professionals have taken medicines for malaria because PF positive was found in the blood samples of two patients from the village, the DPHO said. “A medical team has started testing the blood samples of the patients but the results have not reached the DPHO yet due to lack of means of communication,” Chand said. Local residents said the patients were being distributed medicines for malaria even though the disease wasn’t diagnosed. The DPHO is also making preparations to spray insecticides to prevent spread of the disease. Chand added that DPHO Banke has asked for a specialists’ team from the Health Ministry for control of the disease. “We have asked for a specialists’ team; we are really concerned for the treatment of the patients,” Chand said. Advisor of Health Ministry, Dr Mahesh Maskey and Senior Public Health Officer Giriraj Subedi reached Nepalgunj to coordinate for control of the epidemic.
ok, from the promed link above it seems that the October 14th news was not a mystery disease.
snip In response to the request for information about an outbreak of an acute febrile respiratory illness with 8 unexplained deaths in Dadeldhura Nepal — Undiagnosed deaths - Nepal (Dadeldhura): RFI 20061014.2954 — reported in a newswire, Dr. Khanchit Limpakarnjanarat, from the WHO South East Asian Regional Office (SEARO) Outbreak group forwarded a series of correspondence surrounding an investigation conducted by the WHO SEARO Outbreak Group in collaboration with the WHO office in Nepal and the Nepali Ministry of Health for an earlier “mystery” outbreak in Chamchet village, Kathmandu, Nepal during September 2006.
The final conclusion of the investigation was that there was no unusual outbreak, nor a cluster of unexplained deaths. “Persons who went to investigate had reported that there was no unusual morbidity as claimed in the press in that VDC [district]
I should have highlighted the mention of a second team. Two teams, 19 members in total. Good luck to them.
NEW DELHI - An outbreak of dengue fever claimed 12 more lives across India, taking to 151 the number of people killed by the deadly mosquito-borne illness, a senior health ministry announced Tuesday.
“Twelve people have died in the country till noon today,” said P. L. Joshi, director of the ministry’s disease control programme.
Joshi said six of the deaths during the past 24 hours were reported from New Delhi, which took the dengue toll in the national capital to 67, with 2,640 people infected.
Nationwide, 8,951 dengue-related cases have been reported since July-end when the virus first surfaced.
Another 1,682 people were suffering from chikungunya disease which, like dengue, is transmitted to humans through bites of the Aedes mosquitoes during the rainy season.
Encephalitis, which is also transmitted by mosquitoes, has killed 262 children in northern Uttar Pradesh since the start of the monsoon season in June.
Dengue claimed more than 400 lives in Delhi in 1996 when 10,000 people caught the virus. - AFP/ra
Is this part of what’s happening in India? Sorry If it has already been posted.
“Mystery disease strikes village,three dead”
Death of three persons in a span of one week due to some mysterious disease at Dayyar village has caused scare among villagers. The disease has affected almost all families in the village, which has some 800 houses. Those who died of this disease complained of high fever, severe headache and vomiting.All the three died after a brief illness and complained of high fever severe headache and vomited blood before breathing their last.This correspondent visited the village and found there was hardly any house in the village, where some member of the family was not ill. In some houses , all members were found suffering from fever. They said teams of health department did visit their village after that but they did little except taking blood samples of the affected persons. And even after 15 days of the outbreak, they were yet to recieve the results of the tests.
www.tribuneindia.com for above post.Or you can google title.
Mystery Disease Kills Nine Mules-Gaighat,Oct 29
An unknown disease has cropped up among mules, leaving nine of them dead on Saturday in Udaypur. The nine dead mules were among 40 others that were carrying goods from Gaighat to Kiktel of Khotang. The mules sweated profusely at first and shivered before dying.Though tissue samples of mules that died a few months ago were sent to Kathmandu to ascertain the cause of their death, the disease is yet to be identified.www. the himalayantimes.com
KARACHI, Pakistan
Nov. 1, 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/yjclbg
Viral rhinopharyngitis hits city
KARACHI: The city is now faced with a threat of new kind of seasonal viral disease known as viral rhinopharyngitis. The general symptoms of this disease are similar to that of dengue fever. ENT Expert and general secretary of Pakistan Medical Association (PMA), Dr Qaiser Sajjad, said that the rhinopharyngitis was inflammation of the nasal and pharyngealmucous membranes, caused by a virus.
He said that due to similarity of symptoms many patients of viral rhinopharyngitis were mistakenly considering this disease as dengue fever. He pointed out that the general symptom of viral rhinopharyngitis is fever, which sometimes turn into high-grade fever, nasal obstruction, headache, body ache, runny nose, soar throat and other flue like symptoms.
Qaiser said that 50 to 60 per cent patients with these symptoms in Karachi were in fact suffering from viral rhinopharyngitis and not by dengue fever and added that this is a seasonal disease and it would end when the weather will completely change into winter.
He said that due to the similarity of symptoms, this disease was creating confusion and panic amongst the patients and their families.
He pointed out that viral rhinopharyngitis is not a deadly disease like dengue fever.
<snip>
ISLAMABAD/RAWALPINDI, Pakistan
Thursday, November 02, 2006 / By Muhammad Qasim / http://tinyurl.com/yknovd
Dengue Fever outbreak: Public sector hospitals still facing shortage of testing kits
ISLAMABAD: Public sector hospitals throughout Rawalpindi division, in its adjoining towns and as well in Islamabad, are still facing acute shortage of testing kits for confirming Dengue Fever in suspects immediately.
The government has so far taken no steps to provide testing kits to public sector hospitals, which desperately need them as the number of suspected cases is swelling by each passing day. Administrations at the three teaching hospitals including Rawalpindi General Hospital, Holy Family Hospital and District Headquarters Hospital despite willing to purchase testing kits from open markets are facing the consequences of the government policies as none of them has even a single testing kit.
<snip>
New Delhi, Nov 02: Three more persons, including two in the national capital, succumbed to deadly dengue taking the death toll in the country to 161 even as 115 fresh cases of the mosquito-borne disease were reported.
“Three persons died due to dengue in the country till noon yesterday,” health officials said.
Altogether 9066 people have been infected with the viral disease in the country, they said. Authorities have confirmed 151 deaths.
In the national capital, official figures state that 54 persons have died due to the mosquito borne disease.
The reduction in the number of dengue deaths, which was 60 earlier, comes after the Municipal Corporation of Delhi officials reviewed 12 suspected dengue deaths and found that six had succumbed to the viral while six others died due to complications other than any form of dengue.
Last year, 157 people had succumbed to dengue, while 11,985 had been affected.
The national capital registered 62 deaths till yesterday, while 68 fresh cases were reported, taking the total number of affected people in Delhi to 2,708.
Health officials said the dengue deaths could be attributed to the fluctuating day temperatures that were ideal for the virus-carrying mosquitoes to breed.
The temperature during the day normally hovers between 25 and 30 degrees Celsius. This is the ideal range for the breeding of the Aedes aegypti said an official.
Health Emergency in Mannar as Virus Fever Spreads---This sounds bad,could someone please find the article and print details.I am out of town on a borrowed computer. Google title or www.tamilnet.com —Thanks
witness -
Here is the article: http://tinyurl.com/wyrmu
This excerpt from JV 01:27 article link sounds like the medical experts are saying it is spread H2H:
“Medical sources speculated that refugees who returned to Mannar from South India recently may have brought the new virus to Mannar area, sources said.”
Question: Would Dengue fever spread that quickly if it was newly introduced into an area by humans? Needs to be spread to humans by mosquitos, not H2H.
A total number of 9360 cases and 155 deaths have been reported from India as a whole including Delhi as on 03.11.2006 upto 12.30 hrs.
Homesteader- ‘Would Dengue fever spread that quickly if it was newly introduced into an area by humans? Needs to be spread to humans by mosquitos, not H2H.’
Good question, hard to quantify ‘recently’. Dengue is not spread H2H.
Here’s another point to consider, they are they referring to the virus as ‘new’…
They should be quite familiar with dengue, as it is present in the region. In 2005 there were 3000 cases of dengue recorded there, according to wikipedia… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengue
There are lots of other things it can and might very well be, this is exactly the sort of reports we need to be watching for though- kudos to witness and JV.
How is this situation comparing with the Nepal thread and spread of their “mystery” illness (some of their ill people are being taken to India for treatment)? The numbers in Nepal seem to have mushroomed over the past week and since it neighbors with India, I wonder how the illnesses along the Indian border are looking. Have there been surges in cerebral malaria, dengue, encephalitis, or other diagnoses appearing suddenly in those neighboring villages that anyone has noticed?
Sniffles et al;
Article and link posted by witness earlier. Site of outbreak is in northern India almost due west of Banke District in Nepal.
Mystery disease strikes village, three dead Our Correspondent
Fatehabad, October 28 Death of three persons in a span of one week due to some mysterious disease at Dayyar village in this district has caused scare among villagers.
The disease has affected almost all families in the village, which has some 800 houses. Those who died of this disease complained of high fever, severe headache and vomiting. Villagers allege it is an attack of dengue. However, the health authorities have denied it and said supply of contaminated drinking water was responsible for the disease.
According to reports, Pala Ram (40) of the village died on October 21 after a brief illness. Ishwar Godara (42) died the next day. On October 24, Dara Singh (22) also died. All the three died after a brief illness and complained of high fever, severe headache and vomited blood before breathing their last. Several other villagers are suffering from fever in this village.
Does this sound as bad to everyone else as it sounds to me?? I mean, I can be a little prone to overreaction, so I want to count on other (cooler??) heads to bring me back down to earth a litte.
But this seems really, really bad to me.
How much testing has anyone been able to do - doesn’t sound like there is much health infrastructure for that. Have they ruled out some sort of contagious meningitis ?
(How far is all this from the nearest airports?)
The situations described in these articles maybe typical for the regions involved. However, when seen through inexperienced eyes (like mine) from the west it seems like a highly unusual string of events and therefore must have an unusual cause ie: bird flu.
Wish that Tropical Disease specialist would show up and comment!
Bump
News report of a viral illness in Sri Lanka on the 11/4 news thread.
The following statement was taken from the Sri Lanka link on our news thread
“Medical sources speculated that refugees who returned to Mannar from South India recently may have brought the new virus to Mannar area, sources said. “
Maybe just more dengue or malaria or chik, or mystery viral fever, but we should keep an eye on this until it clears up.
re:
“All the three died after a brief illness and complained of high fever, severe headache and vomited blood before breathing their last.”
High fever. Severe headache. Vomiting blood. Potential H2H.
Many disease can cause these symptoms, including H5N1.
Bears watching, but not panicking. Panic has no place here or in emergency planning.
(Going for a second cup of coffee does, so I’m headed back to the kitchen.)
Enza---The link to this article was posted on this thread on Nov.3 by JV at 01:27. I posted it on the news site also,because I thought it was serious and may not get the exposure it needed.I think your post proves that we are starting to become a bit fragmented. It is becoming more and more difficult to follow all the new developments even when they are in the same area.
In and of itself the fact that hundreds daily are becoming infected with a mystery illness that has many of the symptoms of H5N1may not be seen as that alarming.But pair this with what is happening in Nepal and all of the other pieces of the puzzle we have to date and those puzzle pieces are starting to make a complete picture.
I guess my point is, the
pieces need to be brought together and kept together.That is where our strength is. True--- This needs watching. Nepal needs watching. India needs watching.But we all need to start looking at a whole picture.Frankly, I don’t know where to put my posts anymore.
The dots need to be connected and at this very crucial time they are not. This is not a rant or a complaint just an observation. When I read the nepal thread or the news thread I am constantly weighing what I learn against the other facts already known. Knowledge is power. I just want all of us to have that power.
Thankyou to all the hard working caring people who strive to inform others through this site.
witness, I posted the Sri Lanka (SL) story here because 1) of the proximity of SL to India. 2)there is quite a bit of travel between both those counties. 3) the news item referenced southern India.
If (and I mean if) this is H5N1 this is exactly what I would expect to see at this point in the evolution of the virus: dispersed outbreaks; outbreaks increasing in number; outbreaks in neighbouring countires; but outbreaks that are not sustained or increasing in size. And, just before it goes pandemic, we will not be able to track anymore, it will be frustrating.
Enza—They are the same story. And you posted for the same reasons I did .So we are on the same page.
In the areas that are/have been flooded, will the people be drinking contaminated water? What happened to their wells? Would they know if it’s cholera, for example? Or typhoid or typhus? sigh.
Outrage over infant deaths in Calcutta
Sunday, November 05, 2006 / Martin Barillas / http://tinyurl.com/y3ztja
itical parties capitalize on parents’ grief as 23 newborns die in three days at B.C. Roy Hospital
Reports out of the Indian city of Calcutta indicate that some 23 newborns died within three days in the B.C. Roy Hospital since November 2. Twelve of the dead children were under one month in age. The normal death rate at the hospital is two or three children per day.
A strong cordon of Indian police faced off hundreds of enraged members of at least two political parties that attempted to penetrate the police barriers to register their anger at the deaths of the babies, which came allegedly as a result of medical malpractice.
According to the reports, no official investigation has yet been launched. The hospital appears to be operating normally, even though hospital officials admitted that they lack adequate facilities for newborns.
According to the India Times, nearly 60% of the dead babies had been born prematurely and were grossly underweight. According to M.K. Chatterjee, a hospital official, “It is very difficult to save such infants”, said the India Times newspaper. The other babies suffered from meningitis, encephalitis, and septicemia. Other babies are currently suffering from dengue fever as well.
Some bereaved parents rejected the hospital’s suggestion that it had simply been overwhelmed by the number of acute cases. According to one parent, physicians have been largely absent while nurses have attended sick and dying babies.
The India Times termed the debacle “a rerun of the events of August-September 2002” when similar crib deaths sparked protests and official investigation. Thirty-one babies died in that incident.
I know it is India, I understand there is a lot of disease, but what are the chances of a newborn ward being affected by:
in just a few days, leading to the deaths of babies under one month of age?
Pixie- Man it just sounds so choatic over there. I just can’t help but think all of this is leading up to something, because these reports keep getting weirder and weirder. Makes me soooo thankful I live here in the states.
Pixie – at 22:34 “physicians have been largely absent “
That is quit telling to me. Remember that in Nepal the doctors had left the hospital and the hospital was fumigating the ICU. Why are all the doctors leaving hospitals when things like this are happening? It may not be H5N1 but something is going on.
Look at what they do, not what they say.
Pixie DennisC
I have a question, and perhaps it belongs on the dummie thread, but I’ll ask it here. Who is to say, that the next emerging pandemic will not come from Asia, but instead, come out of India? Unless the press in China is really covering up what is going on there, India really seems to be experiencing alot of diseases happening all at once, where as Asia, isn’t, or isn’t reporting it.
Sure does not make sense for babies to have those diseases??-I’m wondering if those infants were born in the hospital or if they were all brought in because they were ill?-In either case it sounds like some type of outbreak to me since it they all died in the same time period. Either that or gross neglect.
I have no idea at where the next pandemic will come from. (Turkey, India, Indo, - they are in Asia right?). I know that the “Spanish flu” came from Tibet in 1916/1917. (as documented in the 1917 Lancet). So there is some historical view that that is where this one might come from. However, when it really hits, I have a wild guess that it will be “everywhere” very quickly. Perhaps it has already started. One of those “missing doctors” from Nepal might be on a plane landing in NYC right now - who knows?
My concern is not where it starts but what the R0, CFR, and incubation period will be. I feel sorry for people where ever it starts but from the practical matter from here, it is the spread, speed and death rate that will affect my “little part of the world”. I wish I knew what to do for others on a remote mountaintop in Nepal, or Tibet or India but I just don’t know what I can do for them. I do try to prepare for what may happen here on my remote mountaintop in NM, USA. That is about all I can do. I have racked my brain to try to figure a way to stop it starting elsewhere, but I just don’t have any ideas on how to stop it. I will do my best to help those around me, but I don’t know what else to do.
PS I had always thought it would be somewhere around Q lake. But that begs the question of when we say it started - in a bird, in a pig, the first mutation, the second mutation, the first H2H or the first H2H2H,…. but my crystal ball is dim- like me.
This has been posted at the ProMed site - note the mention of 8 deaths from Nepal as well.
Japanese encephalitis toll in Eastern UP mounts to 292
The deadly vector-borne disease Japanese encephalitis (JE) continued to claim the lives of children in eastern Uttar Pradesh, with the toll mounting to 292 following 8 more deaths in the last 48 hours. State Joint Director Health Dr. Umakant Prasad said 1566 people suffering from JE had been admitted at the famous Baba Raghav Das Medical College here and to other hospitals since April 2006. Almost 75 patients — including 17 fresh cases — are still under treatment.
The JE patients belong to Gorakhpur, Deoria, Maharajganj, Sant Kabirnagar, Kushinagar, Basti, Siddharthnagar, Azamgarh, Gonda and Balrampur districts of UP. At least 194 cases pertain to Bihar, while Nepal accounts for 8 JE cases reported so far. Of the total JE deaths, 41 victims hailed from Bihar, Dr. Prasad added. Gorakhpur has the dubious distinction of being the JE epicenter in the region. The endemic disease afflicts eastern UP during monsoon season every year.
The state government had undertaken a massive vaccination drive against the disease; however, the efficacy and effectiveness of the drive has come under fire with the mounting toll.
DennisC-
Oh lord, if that missing doctor is on his way to New York, I’m going to, hmmmm, well, hijack the shuttle to mars!
Hey my crystal ball is broke-like me!!
cottontop - at 23:19
I second what DennisC said.
Also, remember that in 1918 we are not sure just where the flu was seeded (and as DennisC says there are theories like that noted in the Lancet) but it got going full steam right here in the U.S. in a very unexotic town called Haskell, Kansas.
We watch China, Indonesia, and the other places with confirmed outbreaks, but really “the” pandemic strain could break out anyplace, from any of the 5 circulating clades. We watch the background noise in very undeveloped areas in India, Nepal, but honestly it could just as well start in Helsinki, Finland.
Six died of Malaria in Jalpaiguri [ 5 Nov, 2006 1807hrs ISTPTI ]
SILIGURI: Six persons have died of Malaria and 197 others were affected at Mogolkata tea garden in Jalpaiguri district since October this year, a senior official said here.
The Chief Medical Officer (health) of Jalpaiguri, Bhusan Chakraborty, said that a medical team had been sent there.
He said the entire district was Malaria-prone and the district health department had its limitation in tackling the problem.
When asked about Dengue, Chakraborty said that since October, nine dengue cases had been detected in the district.
Comment: If you’ve got the time…this is an interesting site to visit. They provide the “hot spots” in India for bird watching (Jalpaiguri happens to be a hot spot for bird activity according to their web sight) Additionally, if you click on the mammal tab on the left column they provide a nice list of pictures including pictures of both the crivet and marten :) Furthermore, they have a bird flu section (which hasn’t been updated since February 2006) as-well-as a “Bird Flu and India” blog…only 14 posts with the last one being written in February.
Himalayan Birds of India
Kothapeta, India - Anthrax (also Dengue and Chick)
Even as water is gradually receding in the flood-ravaged coasts of Prakasam district, the fear of contagious diseases is rising. Two women-Talapala Anantamma (31) and her nine-year-old daughter Bujji of Vivekananda Yanadi Colony in Kothapeta village of Vetapalem mandal were admitted to the area government hospital in Chirala with anthrax. The doctors, who conirmed the anthrax attack(?), had however, recorded that the patients were suffering from ordinary fever. However, the issue came to light as the medical personnel kept a safe distance from the patients.
Some more suspected cases of dengue and chikungunya, due to the heavy flood conditions, surfaced in Chirala, Vetapalemand Karamchedu areas. Meanwhile, 35 handloom weavers, who were given upma at the Thotavaripalem flood relief centre fell sick and had to be admitted to the government hospital.
I posted this on the news thread also.
There is a strong India connection to the death of the 2 year old in Dubai. His father and sister were also hospitalized.
Now the 2 nurses that took care of the boy are sick
Could someone please google and post---Mike Davis, Fear and money in Dubai---Scroll down to “ An indentured majority”
This looks as if there is a possiblilty of the beginning of something.
witness - at 14:23
The nurses who took care of the sick boy in Dubai did contract fever, but the hospital let them go home, putting their fever down to two bad cases of nervousness. (That’s what they said). If it was something they were worried about, they would not have let them go home (assuming the report was accurate).
I can think of many,many causes of fevers, but nervousness sure isn`t one of them.
Just saw this on ProMED. Pigs dying in India of undiagnosed disease with fever and respiratory involvement: http://tinyurl.com/y6m8kn
Dengue fever ebbing, says CMO Sunit Dhawan Tribune News Service
Hisar, November 9 Allaying the fear of dengue relapse in the district, the Chief Medical Officer, Dr S.K. Naval, has said all cases of viral fever accompanied by a fall in platelets were not those of dengue infection.
“Blood platelet count is reduced in many cases of viral infection and fever other than dengue,” he said while talking to The Tribune here today.
Dr Naval maintained that even blood tests conducted by private medical laboratories could wrongly detect dengue infection due to inadequate diagnostic procedures. “Such inappropriate diagnoses, coupled with media reports, give an impression that there is a fresh outbreak of dengue in the region, which is not true,” he asserted.
He, however, stated that preventive measures were being adopted to check the spread of dengue and other viral infections. No dengue death had been reported from the district so far, but several private hospitals were claiming to be treating a number of suspected dengue patients, he said.
Dr Kamal Kishore, a consultant physician at the NC Jindal Institute of Medical Care and Research, however, said due to delayed winter, mosquitoes causing dengue and other viral infections were still active. He cautioned suspected dengue patients not to get intra-muscular injections as it could lead to complications.
Dengue claims one more life, toll 181, Nov 11, 2006
The Times of India- “NEW DELHI: A woman died of dengue, taking the nationwide death toll to 181 as 36 more people were afflicted with the mosquito-borne disease.
Laxmi, 25, a resident of Gurgaon in Haryana was admitted to AIIMS on November 7 and she died of the viral disease on Friday.
With her death, the number of fatalities due to the disease touched 73 in Delhi while 20 fresh cases were reported in the past 24 hours ending Saturday afternoon, taking the number of those affected with the viral to 3079.
According to the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, 36 fresh cases were reported in the country till noon on Saturday.
In the national capital, of the 20 fresh cases, six were from surrounding areas, P L Joshi, Director of the programme, said.
“Dengue is in a declining mode in the country. In a week’s time, we will not be seeing these cases even,” he said. On Friday, five deaths were reported in Delhi. Government has confirmed 170 deaths due to dengue in the country.
Last year, 157 people had succumbed to the disease, while 11,985 had been affected. Joshi said when the temperature will go below 16 degree Celsius, the dengue-carrying mosquitoes will die a natural death.
Twenty people had died of dengue in Maharashtra, 17 in Rajasthan, 16 in Andhra Pradesh, 14 in Uttar Pradesh, seven each in Karnataka and West Bengal, five each in Punjab and Kerala, three in Gujarat and two each in Haryana and Tamil Nadu.
As many as 1224 people were afflicted with the disease in Rajasthan, 931 in Punjab, 924 in West Bengal, 880 in Kerala, 582 in Maharashtra, 493 in Gujarat, 430 in Haryana, 328 in Tamil Nadu, 141 in Andhra Pradesh, 108 in Chandigarh and 98 in Karnataka.”
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/409618.cms
Govt ‘partially‘ confirms 13 dengue cases Nov 12, 2006
PATNA: “The state government has finally acknowledged the presence of dengue in Bihar. In fact, the government “partially” confirmed at least 13 cases on Wednesday.
Till this week, the districts did not have any testing facility. As a result, the government kept denying the presence of the disease even though private practitioners claimed otherwise.
On Wednesday, a day after testing kits were dispatched to all district hospitals, 13 patients tested positive.
State health secretary Deepak Kumar, said, “We can partially conf-irm these cases. For, the kits only provide an indication based on which symptomatic treatment is started,” he said.
The kits test a patient’s blood for anti-dengue antibody (IGg) which indicate dengue infection. However, presence of anti-body may also be related to a previous infection.
While one patient is admitted to the Patna Medical College and Hospital (PMCH) here, the others are in various district hospitals…”
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/411738.cms
NDTV- Saturday, November 11, 2006 (Gorakhpur):
“Last year more than 1000 children had died of Japanese encephalitis in Gorakhpur.
As the disease has a pattern of striking with intensity every alternate year, this year its impact is less.
However, this year over 1600 cases of different types of encephalitis have been reported in Gorakhpur and 310 people have died, most of them children, from it…”
…”Last year, there had been over a 1000 deaths at Gorakhpur Medical College. There was a lot of media attention and political attention right from the State’s Governor to the Union Health Minister and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.
Special funds and staff had been sent. But this year, the deaths haven’t made headlines and the issue too has slipped into oblivion.
Last year, the pediatrics ward was given eight ventilators, but three of those don’t work now.
The ICU has not been sanctioned new staff and the hospital has been hiring nurses on short contracts. Last year additonal doctors had been sent, but there’s been no such concern this year.
A new epidemic ward promised last year is still under construction and it hasn’t been sanctioned any staff.
“Due to dengue and chikungunya in whole of the country, the deaths are about 150 or so, so two times of deaths because of viral encephalitis has occurred only in BRD medical college, leave alone other private and district hospitals,” said Dr A K Rathi, HOD, Paediatrics, Gorakhpur Medical College.
“I have a strong feeling that we are second class citizens in our own country,” he added.
In the Gorakhpur Medical College alone, there have been over 300 deaths this year, which forces one to wonder how the dengue epidemic in the Capital hogged the limelight and shook everyone from their slumber.
But hundreds of deaths each year, mostly those of children, in the interior of the country evoke little response.”
more… http://tinyurl.com/yytx6b
‘Gorakhpur is a city in the eastern part of the state of Uttar Pradesh in India. It is the administrative headquarters of Gorakhpur District and Gorakhpur Division
It shares a border with Nepal.’
from… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorakhpur
Govt asks NICD to conduct study on dengue
Dehli newsline- “THE Delhi government’s Health Department has asked the National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) to conduct an epidemiological study after the National Institute of Virology (NIV) found three strains of dengue prevalent in the Capital…”
…”Doctors in the Capital fear that the presence of the three strains of dengue-I,II and III—could result in a higher incidence of the disease next year. Earlier, either one or two strains of the disease was prevalent in the city….”
…”“The presence of the three strains could be a reason for so many deaths this year. This also shows the disease has spread from more than one source. There are chances that the disease could strike in a similar fashion in coming years,” said Dr Randeep Guleria, professor of medicine in the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS).
Dr Randeep added that this “mixed infection” could be a problem for those already infected with the virus. “Those already exposed to a strain have chances of getting infected with a severe form of dengue. For instance, if a person is infected with dengue-I this year, he will develop immunity for it. But chances are that he might get infected with dengue-II or III, which are severe,” he said…”
…”Dengue claimed one more life in the Capital, taking the nationwide death toll to 183. Health officials said the patient died at Safdarjung Hospital, pushing the dengue toll to 75 in Delhi. Twelve fresh cases were reported in the past 24 hours hours; seven patients were from Delhi.”
http://cities.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=209539
MaMa – at 17:03 “The presence of the three strains could be a reason for so many deaths this year. This also shows the disease has spread from more than one source.”
I wonder what they meant by this??? I thought dengue was only spread by infected mosquitos.
Sniffles, yes I believe that dengue is only spread by mosquitos. IMO, ‘This also shows the disease has spread from more than one source’, means that illnesses are being discovered as a result of people being infected by more than one strain. I don’t think they mean from different vectors.
from wikipedia…’Dengue fever (IPA: [‘deŋgeɪ]) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) are acute febrile diseases, found in the tropics, with a geographical spread similar to malaria. Caused by one of four closely related virus serotypes of the genus Flavivirus, family Flaviviridae, each serotype is sufficiently different that there is no cross-protection and epidemics caused by multiple serotypes (hyperendemicity) can occur. Dengue is transmitted to humans by the mosquito Aedes aegypti (rarely Aedes albopictus)….’
…’Significant outbreaks of dengue fever tend to occur every five or six years. There tend to remain large numbers of susceptible people in the population despite previous outbreaks because there are four different strains of the dengue virus and because of new susceptible individuals entering the target population, either through childbirth or immigration.
There is significant evidence, originally suggested by S.B. Halstead in the 1970s, that dengue hemorrhagic fever is more likely to occur in patients who have secondary infections by serotypes different from the primary infection. This is due to a process known as antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), which allows for increased uptake and virion replication during a secondary infection with a different strain. Through an immunological phenomena, known as original antigenic sin, the immune system is not able to adequately respond to the stronger infection, and the secondary infection becomes far more serious.[1]…’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengue_Fever
sorry, that should have been…’means that illnesses are being discovered as a result of people being infected by more than one strain (both individually and that more than one strain seems to be circulating in a particular area at this time)’
32 more dengue cases, 9,940 affected nationwide
The Hindu- “New Delhi, Nov. 14 (PTI): Thirty-two more cases of dengue were reported countrywide, taking the number of people afflicted with the mosquito-borne disease to 9,940.
The death toll nationwide has touched 183 so far.
Health Officials said dengue is in a declining mode…”
…”Last year, 157 people had succumbed to the disease, while 11,985 had been affected…”
more… http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/001200611142240.htm
More dengue cases reported nationwide
Wednesday, November 15, 2006 (New Delhi):
“Forty-three new cases of dengue were reported nationwide, taking the number of people affected with the viral disease to 9983.
No deaths have been reported in the country for the past two days, according to the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme.
The nationwide death toll due to dengue has touched 183 so far, though government has confirmed 172 deaths…”
more… http://tinyurl.com/ygfvlk
Seegene Introduces New Dengue Virus Molecular Diagnostics
Express Healthcare Management(India)- “A new multiplex PCR system has ushered in hope for the medical fraternity and patients, which will detect all four dengue virus serotypes and chikungunya virus simultaneously. Dengue and chikungunya, have almost taken epidemic proportions in the country,with 7761 cases and 129 deaths so far.
The new molecular diagnostic system has been developed by Dr Jong-Yoon Chun of Seegene Life Sciences Institute, Seoul, Korea, in collaboration with Prof Sazaly AbuBaker of the University Malaya Medical Centre in Malayasia. After successful initial evaluation on at least 300 suspected dengue and chikungunya patients, Dr Chun has now brought this technology in India.
His team is in talks with hospitals like AIIMS, Apollo, Dr Lal Path Labs and with the Government. “At the moment, we just want hospitals and labs to test the kit for its efficacy,” says Dr Chun.
Scientists and doctors have already emphasised on the need for an early detection of the infections, especially by using molecular diagnostics to ensure that immediate preventive control measures can be undertaken by the authorities to curb the spread of the diseases while at the same time allow doctors to rigorously monitor confirmed dengue patients and accord proper treatment thereof in the best possible way to reduce mortality.
Where the conventional serological methods are not reliable and do not allow early detection, the Seegene’s system can accurately detect and differentiate specific dengue virus serotypes (DEN1-DEN4) and chikungunya virus with just one step PCR. Prof AbuBakar was able to detect the presence of dengue virus in samples of patients as early as on day one of fever and in at least 60 per cent of the IgM negative patients that later seroconvert…”
http://www.expresshealthcaremgmt.com/200611/innews10.shtml
Thousand ”cleansing” fires anger Indian activists
KOLKATA, Nov 17 (Reuters) - “Hindus in India’s West Bengal state began burning wood and herbs in over a 1,000 deep pits on Friday in a ceremony they said will heal the ozone layer and cure disease, drawing anger from green campaigners.
Billowing smoke from 1,008 fires, which will blaze for three days, will wipe out parasites which cause outbreaks of dengue fever and malaria, local religious leaders said, and help boost the earth’s natural defences.
But environmentalists warned the thick blanket of smoke generated would only pose a serious health hazard and dismissed the beliefs as foolish.
“The smoke will cause a deep haze and the ozone layer will only weaken with such foolish acts,” Subhas Dutta, an activist warned. “Someone must stop this madness before it is too late.”
The Gayatri Janakalyan Kendra, a group which believes in the benefits of ancient Hindu philosophy, began kindling the fires in densely populated Howrah, about 10 km (6 miles) north of the state capital, Kolkata, witnesses said.
Hundreds of priests were supervising the fire ceremony, chanting ancient Hindu verses to invoke gods, as thousands of people, including women clad in yellow robes, looked on.
“Three days after the sacred fire rages, smoke from burnt wood and herbal medicines will strengthen the ozone layer and cure diseases,” Pashupati Nath Misra, Gayatri’s secretary said.
The fires cleanse the atmosphere of evil, he said…”
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/B67370.htm
Yesterday on the Egypt thread, Under The Radar posted some news about chikungunya virus reaching the U.S. and other countries (hat tip!). What caught my attention was acknowledgement that the virus can be transmitted H2H via blood.
+Deadly tropical disease arrives on U.S. shores+ Scientists say West Nile threat pales by comparison
ATLANTA — Chikungunya, a severe and sometimes deadly infectious disease that has devastated the islands of the Indian Ocean, has arrived in the United States.
Colorado, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota and at least a half-dozen other states have reported cases of travelers returning from visits to Asia and East Africa sick with the mosquito-borne virus, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Chikungunya can cause fever, nausea, crippling joint pain and even neurological damage.
“This virus has exploded,” said French scientist Philippe Parola, before presenting his findings last week at the 55th annual American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene conference. “People must start to pay attention.” [snip]
Because of chikungunya’s human-to-human transmission — Parola reports at least one case of a nurse becoming infected after taking a blood sample from a patient — Calisher is not hopeful that the disease will ever be eradicated.
Team to probe “mysterious deaths” in Meghalaya [India]
Nov. 23 / http://tinyurl.com/ybgj8h / Link to map of region: http://tinyurl.com/ya5quw
Shillong, Nov. 23 (PTI): As mysterious deaths reported from remote villages of West Khasi Hills district, Meghalaya Government yesterday sent a team of doctors to ascertain the matter and also take preventive measures.
Chief Secretary, S K Tiwari, told reporters here that a team of doctors was sent from district headquarters Nongstoin to investivate the “mysterious disease” which reportedly claimed 20 lives.
While informing that another team would leave today to investigate on the same in three remote villages affecting a population of 500 people, he said so far there was no official report of such deaths in primary or community health centres.
The two teams would examine the patients including blood test and the report would be made available within the next four to five days.
Media reported that Rickettsial disease had claimed 20 lives in two small hamlets of Langpa and Phoumiap in West Khasi hills district during the last one month.
It said eight children were taken ill last week and all of them died a few days latter. Most of the children complained of chest pain coupled with influenza.
On the map, this looks somewhat close to the area of Nepal where there were all those mysterious deaths ascribed to malaria a couple of weeks back. Is it?
Thank you Pixie. We do need to keep our eyes on this & Nepal. 4–5 days to get test results!!!
Commonground - do you think we’ll hear anything at all about the test results?
Mary in Hawaii - this area of India is not very near the two areas in Nepal we have been watching - the Nepalgunj area where they had the “mystery virus” and reported dengue, and the area further to the east where the “mystery virus” and malaria were reported. I say “not near” but these areas are within several hundred miles of each other. A very rough estimate would be that Meghâlaya, India, is around 400 miles from the malaria outbreak area in Nepal.
I am very worried that we are seeing “mystery virus” clusters in very remote areas, followed by news blackouts. This is the kind of scenario I worried would indicate the birth of the pandemic.
I worry, too, that some of the government officials at the meeting last weekend in Syracuse made the rather unusual statement that “pandemics start slowly.” Well, yes, they do but only if the first large clusters are found in very remote places. That would give the virus a “slow” start, but it would be expected to break out at some later point, and keep doing so until it reached a major population center and transportation hub. Then it would begin to resemble the pandemic we are so familiar with imagining. Until that point, though, if clusters are first found in remote areas, the pandemic could indeed “start slowly.”
These “mystery viruses” are indeed very scary. The question is, how remote is remote? With a really hot virus like ebola, when an outbreak occurs in a remote village, it kills so fast that the sick do not have time to get much beyond their borders before succumbing, thus the outbreak is self contained by its own rapid kill rate. However H5N1 in some cases (albeit with lots of medical intervention, intubation, tamiflu, etc) has taken up to a month to kill its victim. In the majority of cases I’ve read, the victim becomes ill, and then after several days of worsening condition is transported to a major medical facility for treatment and evaluation. There they either die after several more days, or eventually recover…all the while exposing many. In this India case, they have sent in a team of doctors and others to treat and “investigate” this “remote” outbreak. We would presume they will exercise all precautions to avoid contracting the illness themselves and/or carrying the virus out to the more populated areas and “transportation hubs” on their return; none-the-less they are going in and coming out, possibly with some of the ill, giving an opportunity for the virus to emerge from isolation to a population center.
One other question occurs to me: if these villages are so isolated where did this mystery virus come from? Also how close are these three villages to one another, and what kind of contact is regularly made between them? If it turns out to be H5N1, what was the vector that brought it to them?
Are villages really so remote that human traffic does not exist?
I don’t believe it.
I seem to recall a remote village back in Oct. that was hit by a mysterious disease, and only accessable by air, so they said, and had a team going in to check it out. Never heard about that again. Does anybody remember that?
Was that Indonesia or India? Anyhow, I agree with Goju. Remote villages are not so remote. They do come in contact with other humans, animals at some point.
the posts from this thread have been transferred to the new forum, they can be found in the India III diary