Forum: News Reports for Sept 28

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak tracking as at 27 September 2006

Summary of News for 27 September 2006

(From WHO as at 27 Sep)
Total human cases worldwide 251, deaths 147 (2006 – 104 with 69 deaths)

(If you want the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Indonesia

• Indonesia rules out human transmission in latest bid flu case (link http://tinyurl.com/hajan)
• New record with latest cases of bird flu (link http://tinyurl.com/p97t9)
• Bird flu patient dies (link http://tinyurl.com/hxugg)
• Officials in the dark over bird flu cluster (link http://tinyurl.com/mf8r7)
• Translation of news within the thread at 07:20, 15:38
• Separate thread for outbreak discussion (link Indonesia Outbreak XI )
• Separate thread for Summary of cases (link Case Summaries )

Thailand

• No bird flu found in Thailand’s lower northeast (link http://tinyurl.com/nwot3)

Hong Kong

• Officials seize 6,000 chickens being smuggled (link http://tinyurl.com/rrkcp)

Laos

• Sequence analysis of H5N1 (link http://tinyurl.com/np3j9)

Egypt

• New case of bird flu detected in rural area (poultry) (link http://tinyurl.com/r5xfw)

New Zealand

• Schools told to prepare for bird flu (link http://tinyurl.com/k9f9q)

Australia

• No bird flu in traveller, police called in (link http://tinyurl.com/r9szt)

General

• North American companies seem better prepared for catastrophes than most in Asia and Europe (link http://tinyurl.com/gol8a)
• Information about an interview with Dr Webster see thread at 13:09
• Scientists uncover why Spanish flu was so deadly (link http://tinyurl.com/lebkd)
• Effect Measure commentary with mention of Flu Wiki (link http://tinyurl.com/fffjf)
• Ecology and epidemiology of avian influenza in North and South America (link http://tinyurl.com/k4e9x)
• The structure of H5N1 avian influenza neuraminidase suggests new opportunities for drug design (link http://tinyurl.com/za8bx)
• UN’s influenza pandemic task force meets (link http://tinyurl.com/h3yz8)

Link to news thread for 27 September (link News Reports for Sept 27 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

(UK) DEFRA revamps bird flu surveillance strategy Source: FWI 28 September 2006

An updated and revised strategy to screen wild birds for the presence of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza has been announced.

DEFRA’s targeted surveillance strategy will involve sampling for the disease in areas which have high numbers of migrating waterfowl and larger poultry populations.

The programme, being introduced in time for the autumn migration of water birds from more northerly latitudes, will have three main elements, testing of live birds - which are then released - testing birds shot as part of normal legal wild fowling activities, and testing certain species of dead wild birds found in designated areas. (link http://tinyurl.com/ntcsj )

(USA) Rogers’ biodefense bill clears House Area vaccine manufacturer BioPort Corp. could benefit

By Katherine Hutt Scott State Journal correspondent

WASHINGTON - The House has approved a bill co-authored by Rep. Mike Rogers that could provide a boost to vaccine manufacturers - including Lansing-based BioPort Corp. - by advancing development of drugs, vaccines and other responses to bioterrorism and outbreaks of diseases such as avian flu.

The House approved the noncontroversial bill by voice vote late Tuesday. The measure, which has the administration’s backing, must clear the Senate and be signed by the president.

Rogers, R-Brighton, who serves on the House energy subcommittee on health and the House intelligence committee, said the federal government must play a strong role in developing new vaccines and drugs. [more - link http://tinyurl.com/ofhov ]

(USA) State gives LLU center $182,000 for flu training Nikki Cobb, Staff Writer

LOMA LINDA - The state has awarded Loma Linda University’s Center for Public Health Preparedness $182,000 to train agencies throughout California how to prepare for a pandemic influenza outbreak. The grant will fund a series of workshops for various local health agencies statewide between now and June 2007.

In each locale, Loma Linda experts will conduct two presentations: One geared toward teaching businesses how to protect their employees and function amid a pandemic crisis, and the other aimed at making provisions for the most vulnerable populations in case of an outbreak. ,,, more http://tinyurl.com/rp8wj

(USA) Flu drill tests Iowa’s readiness for epidemic By DAN GEARINO, Globe Gazette Des Moines Bureau

JOHNSTON — An Iowan has brought a deadly flu strain back from a trip to Singapore. Hundreds of people are sick and thousands are ready to panic.

That was the scenario Wednesday at flu pandemic drill held at Camp Dodge in Johnston and at nine county emergency management offices.

“It helps in our preparedness across the state, regardless of the disaster,” said David Miller, administrator for the Iowa Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. More at http://tinyurl.com/ls4o2

(Vietnam) Precautions discussed at bird-flu meeting 14:40′ 28/09/2006 (GMT+7)

VietNamNet Bridge - A meeting on urgent measures against the spread of avian-flu was held by the National Steering Board for Bird Flu Control (NSBBFC) in Hanoi yesterday.

The NSBBFC asked municipal authorities to stop poultry slaughtering at markets and populous areas immediately while strictly controlling the trade and transportation of poultry across the border. The NSBBFC also asked relevant agencies to quickly implement the second phase of bird flu poultry vaccination plan, scheduled for completion in October.

<snip> In another defensive move, Minister Cao Duc Phat instructed the veterinary department to re-inspect batches of imported vaccines in response to the Ministry of Public Security’s warnings of their poor quality.

The current cold weather could pave the way for the wide spread of the avian virus, said Mr. Cao Duc Phat, minister of Agriculture and Rural Development and head of the NSBBFC. Avian outbreaks are cyclical, usually detected in October every year. No bird flu outbreak has been found in the past nine months. Link http://tinyurl.com/potyw

(Canada) Health committee examines Avian Flu threat

Pre-emptive emergency response planning outlines procedures to be taken in the event of a pandemic endangering U of A students and staff (Natalie Climenhaga)

A mass questionnaire sent out over e-mail to gauge student opinion on the event of a possible pandemic is being explained as a simple premeditative step and not a cause for alarm.

The University of Alberta Public Health Response Committee—which was created last year to draft out how the University would deal with any sort of major health crisis happening on campus and is currently focused on a potential global Avian Flu pandemic—sent out the survey in an attempt to research, not to frighten, committee member Vice-President (Student Life) Omer Yusuf explained.

“They want to survey the student opinion of how important is a pandemic [and] how is it in the minds of students in terms of a pressing and urgent matter,” Yusuf said.

The Committee meets every two weeks, to draft out potential emergency situation decisions, and consists of 27 members, including the SU, most departments on campus, libraries, Academic Information and Communication Technologies (AICT), the Registrar’s Office, Campus Security Services, the University Health Centre and Capital Health.

More at http://tinyurl.com/o4wro

Okay, that’s the ‘night shift’ off to bed - have a good day everyone, catch you later.

How bad would the sept. numbers be without tamaflu blankets in Indo.

to get this one above yesterday’s news. Thanks everyone!

NPR just did a feature on AF a few minutes ago. It talked about how horrific the 1918 virus was and how/why it killed so many young adults. In this week’s Nature there is an article about how they used a replica of the 1918 virus and ijected it into mice. Basically the mouse’s ate was sealed within hours. However, the 1918 had 8 codes that are not found in today’s viruses so the hope is that it would difficult for all 8 to combine again. Teh story ended on a somber note, however, stating that sceintists are esepcially worried abou the recent Indonesian cases of the brother who had AF and the sister who had regular flu.

Have we linked up the Nautre article yet? I’d look now but I have to get the kids to school….

appoliges for the all the typos - in a hurry! And that would be “the mouse’s FATE” not “ate”

Officials in the dark over flu cluster

Sept 28/06 The Jakarta Post, Bandung

‘’‘Officials at the Bandung Agriculture Office are still trying to determine the origin of a possible bird flu cluster in West Java that may have involved human-to-human transmission. Office head Yogi Supardjo said Wednesday the results of serological tests on 13 chickens and four ducks raised by the family of a hospitalized 20-year-old male resident of Bandung, who tested positive for the H5N1 bird flu virus, showed some of the birds were infected with the virus. The patient’s 23-year-old brother died Sunday of bird flu, while his 15-year-old sister was admitted to Hasan Sadikin Hospital after developing a fever and cough. This has led to speculation of a bird flu cluster, though the source of the infection has yet to be determined.’‘’

“We originally thought the infection came from chicken used to feed the family’s pet dogs, but then further tests found some of the neighbors’ chickens and birds belonging to the family are also positive for the virus,” Yogi said. He said that despite tough controls put in place at the city’s 26 chicken slaughterhouses, the virus continued to spread in densely populated areas in Bandung’s 14 subdistricts.

“It’s difficult to control the distribution of livestock in Bandung because of all the small access points where there are not checkpoints,” he said.

Residents of the Kebonwaru neighborhood unit remain in shock that three of their neighbors have been infected with the virus. They have voluntarily handed over their chickens and pet birds to officials from the agriculture office for culling. “Rather that killing humans, it’s better for the birds to die first,” said resident Dadang Solihin, who had three pet birds culled.

Meanwhile, Health Minister Siti Fadillah Supari confirmed Wednesday the 20-year-old man treated at Hasan Sadikin Hospital had contracted bird flu after the death of his brother.

“On the matter of bird flu, another case is positive,” the minister said as quoted by Agence France Presse. Fatimah Resmiati of the West Java Health Office said the patient remained in critical condition Wednesday. She said Tuesday the three family members were being investigated as a possible cluster case, but cautioned that further tests needed to be carried out.

Nadirin, a doctor at the national bird flu information center, said the family kept ducks and fighting cocks which had shown immunity to the H5N1 virus, meaning they had been infected at one point.This, along with the fact the family fed dead chickens to their dogs, raises the possibility they caught the virus directly from the poultry, rather than each other.” - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/mf8r7

Fatalities in H5N1 Cluster in Bandung Indonesia Grow

Recombinomics Commentary September 28, 2006

‘’‘The above translation provides additional detail on the dogs raised by the two fatal cases in Bandung. Earlier reports indicated that had traveled to Garut to buy some chickens for the dogs. The first cluster in the Cikelet in Garut also was linked to the collection of dead poultry for food for dogs.

Poultry around the household of the dead patients has tested positive for H5N1, and such infections are widespread. However, the poultry isolates from Java do not match the vast majority of human isolates, including those from Bandung and Garut.

The match failure indicates that there is an alternate reservoir leading to the human cases. The only match on Java is with an isolate from a cat in Jakarta. This finding, as well as H5N1 isolates from a variety of carnivorous mammals raises the possibility that these mammals act as a reservoir and the infections may give rise to H5N1 selected for growth in mammals.’‘’

Some media reports have indicated that 11 dogs in the neighborhood of the above fatal cases are being tested. Other reports indicate the dogs were penned with a boar, which would be another host for selection of a mammalian version of H5N1. Clearly, more widespread testing and sequencing is required. A younger sister of the above cluster has also been hospitalized and has tested positive for H1N1. However, a positive H1N1 test would not exclude a dual infection. Since the patient is being treated with Tamiflu, the H5N1 levels may be below detection levels. This was seen in a patient in Thailand who was tested 9 times for evidence of H5N1, which was not detected until autopsy.These data highlight the need for follow-up antibody testing on recovered patients, such as those in the cluster above as well as those who recovered after Tamiflu treatment in Garut.

More testing of mammals and wild birds in the area of these clusters is warranted, as is H5N1 isolation from associated poultry. The match failures indicate that H5N1 positive poultry in the area of the H5N1 positive patients may simply lead to H5N1 testing in patients and infection of alternate hosts in the area, rather than directly to humans, which have an H5N1 that fails to match the poultry sequences.”

http://tinyurl.com/gy7nw

Indonesia man dies of bird flu, cluster case unlikely

“died because of breathing problems”

1 hour, 39 minutes ago

JAKARTA (Reuters) -“A 20-year-old Indonesian man who health officials thought had been part of a family cluster of bird flu cases died of the disease on Thursday, a hospital official said.The man’s 25-year-old brother died on Sunday after displaying bird flu symptoms but there has been no positive confirmation he had the disease because no samples were taken for testing.

A third sibling, a 15-year old girl, is being treated at Hasan Sadikin hospital. Tests for her have been negative. ‘’‘He died because of breathing problems which he had suffered since he was admitted to the hospital,” said Hadi Yusuf, who heads the bird flu ward at Hasan Sadikin hospital in Bandung, West Java’s provincial capital. The government said earlier this week the 20-year-old man had bird flu after a series of positive tests for the H5N1 avian flu virus.’‘’

http://tinyurl.com/kp53q

I think that we can safely assume that most dead chickens in Asia are re-circulated through other…either domestic or wild animal populations.

LauraB @ 8:59 -

Here is the abstract of that “Nature” article called “Genomic analysis of increased host immune and cell death responses induced by 1918 influenza virus.”

http://tinyurl.com/lq22s

Comment

Call me skeptical, but I really have little faith in the negative test results of the 15-year-old sister.

November 2006

Food Markets with Live Birds as Source of Avian Influenza

Conclusions (excerpts) CDC website

Our investigation suggests that the patient may have been infected by an unknown mechanism at a food market that had live birds. We detected H5N1 virus genes in a swab from a goose cage and neutralizing antibody against H5N1 in a poultry worker in 1 of the food markets the patient visited.

This case from Guangzhou was not an isolated event. Five patients with H5N1 infection with no history of exposure to diseased or dead birds before the onset of avian influenza have been reported in the People’s Republic of China; 4 of these 5 patients visited markets that had live birds.

Our findings suggest that food markets or farmers’ markets that have live poultry may be a source for avian influenza infection in which healthy live birds may carry the virus. This was previously shown in Hanoi, Vietnam, in 2001, where H5N1 virus was detected in domestic birds in a live bird market…

The cultural preference of eating freshly slaughtered birds is not unique to the People’s Republic of China; it is also common in other Asian countries. Our results suggest that the practice of selling live birds directly to consumers in food markets should be discouraged in areas currently experiencing influenza outbreaks among birds, especially in large modern cities where there may be a threat to the casual market visitor.

http://tinyurl.com/lhs94

?x=100&y=70&sig=kAX1eFe4tKih7tjtn0kf.Q—

Scientists uncover why Spanish Flu was so deadly http://tinyurl.com/qgl6a

Comment: Old News/New News.. I was encouraged that this story is from Yahoo’s most popular section. Maybe people ARE paying attention. (yea right, laughs). It does seem to me to correlate with what H5N1 does to the body

opps.. sorry about the big pic thing.. mod edit may be required

Remember she (along with Webster) was recently place on the WHO board

Avian flu expert named top federal worker

“Dr. Nancy Cox, a native Iowan who is the nation’s top avian-flu expert, was named Wednesday as “federal employee of the year.”

The award was given by the Partnership for Public Service,… She is leading preparations for a possible pandemic of avian flu, a deadly disease that experts fear could mutate into a version that spreads easily from person to person. She also helps design each year’s flu shots, which protect against an annual ailment that kills thousands of Americans….

She has been a flu specialist her whole career. Cox’s profile has risen dramatically among increasing fears about avian flu…”

http://tinyurl.com/gmwlk

I updated the fluwiki human case chart again. The WHO added 1 more death from Indonesia.

Begaining to get word out of the WHO meeting of “experts”

Avian flu cost more than USD 10 billion in 2003–2004, says Heymann

“GENEVA , Sept 28 (KUNA) Commenting on a meeting that took place here for the Avian Flu Pandemic Preparedness, WHO Acting Representative for Avian and Pandemic Influenza Dr David Heymann said that the economic toll of the Avian flu in 18 months from 2003 to 2004 cost more than USD 10 billion for the agricultural sector alone. This loss, he said, was mostly felt by small farmers…

He added that he does not think that “we are in mortal danger” currently..”

http://tinyurl.com/zheyt

Perhaps I should have highlighted “does not think” as well.

more info about the (20M, 25M) 2 brothers + 15F sister.

Confirmed bird flu case fuels transmission fears

the family kept ducks and fighting cocks, which had shown immunity to the H5N1 virus, meaning they had been infected at one point.This, along with the fact the family fed dead chickens to their dog, meant it was possible they had caught the virus directly from the poultry, rather than each other. The dog was being examined for signs of the virus, he said.

`In their house, they have eight fighting cocks and three of them have shown immunity to the H5N1 virus. This means that they have been infected and naturally developed immunity, he said.`They also have four ducks one of them … also developed immunity.Two doves at a neighbour’s house had also tested positive for the virus, but shown immunity, he added…”

http://tinyurl.com/mrtkd

Concerning the “Rogers Bill” that passed the House of Rep’s by voice vote this morning there is much more information about that bill, and the companion bill in the senate, at

http://www.ombwatch.org/article/archive/1?TopicID=1

The information at the OMB Watch web site has much additional information on the nature of the two bills , as well as links to the proposed bills in their entirety.

The fact that the House bill passed so quickly and with so little fanfare really concerns me. Possibly people here might want to open a thread for discussion of the bills after they read them.

China shares bird flu samples in “breakthrough”: WHO Thu Sep 28, 2006 6:11 PM BST

By Stephanie Nebehay

GENEVA (Reuters) - China has shared long-sought samples of the H5N1 bird flu virus, in what many scientists view as a breakthrough in cooperation, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Thursday.

The samples, taken from some of the thousands of wild birds which died in Qinghai Lake in April 2005, have been sent to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC), a WHO collaborating center in Atlanta, for further analysis, WHO officials said.

“My understanding is they have been shipped to a WHO collaborating center now from the Ministry of Agriculture,” WHO scientist Michael Perdue told a news briefing.

He said the animal samples, the first from China in 2–1/2 years, should help scientists understand the origin of a sub-type of the deadly H5N1 virus which later circulated in Turkey and Africa but is genetically different from the one hitting other parts of Asia, including Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.

Leading scientists have repeatedly expressed concerns that China was not sharing all genetic data from bird flu cases — widely seen as vital to track mutations and develop a vaccine against a human pandemic.

“Most people do see it as a breakthrough for cooperation,” Perdue told Reuters.

The lake, a major stop-off point for migratory birds in the remote northwestern Qinghai province, has become a focus for scientists studying mutations of the virus.

The Agriculture Ministry previously had placed “certain restrictions” on sharing the virus samples, but this had been resolved through negotiations, Perdue said without giving details.

He said the samples from birds which died at the lake were shipped a week ago from a key Ministry of Agriculture laboratory in Harbin to the CDC.

CDC officials expected to receive the samples later on Thursday and it was hoped they would include additional animal samples requested from China, he said.

“We have to wait to see exactly what they shipped,” he said.

Chinese scientists have published some analyses of the samples, but the CDC is expected to carry out more sophisticated testing with antibodies which will reveal variations of immune responses, according to the WHO expert.

“It gives us an animal index case for birds to have the samples from Qinghai Lake, which is the first time that particular type was detected in China,” Perdue told Reuters.

“It will go into the global collection we are making of the virus to see how it changes over time,” the American added.

Hualen Chen, head of China’s national avian influenza reference laboratory in Harbin, was among 70 scientists worldwide who last month announced the launch of a global body to share genetic bird flu data.

China has shared samples from human cases, David Heymann, WHO’s acting special representative on avian influenza, said.

The WHO has confirmed 21 human bird flu cases including 14 deaths in China since November 2005.

Bird flu remains essentially an animal disease, but has killed 148 people of 251 people confirmed as having the virus in 10 countries since 2003, according to the Geneva-based WHO.

link

The Qinghai strains are nice, but China also needs to send more of its human samples. The human samples from all of these countries would constitute a “breakthrough.”

Dennis 13:14. I guess it all depends on the definition of currently…interesting choice of words…the first use of the term mortal danger that I know of…seems to me, it occurs right after the second sneeze.

 House passes biodefense, pandemic vaccine bill 

The House on Wednesday passed the Biodefense and Pandemic Vaccine and Drug Development Act of 2006, which would create a group responsible for developing techniques to deal with pandemic viruses and biological attacks within the Department of Health and Human Services. It also would create a board of federal agency members, along with representatives from the medical device, biotech and pharmaceutical industries. HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt said he will work with Congress to resolve any remaining issues, noting that the bill will streamline and make transparent biodefense activities. Government Health IT (9/27) http://www.govhealthit.com/article96247-09-27-06-Web

I found it interesting to note in the above “Scientists uncover why Spanish Flu was so deadly http://tinyurl.com/qgl6a “ That they used mice in the testing and obviously it worked on them…

Has the Bird Flu Virus Outbreak Begun? Posted on September 28, 2006

by Michael Colucci

…What is scaring the scientists now are the recent developments of the bird flu in Turkey. They fear that the virus may have already mutated and the transmission from one human to the other has now been possible. This is because in the span of a week, 15 people were reported to be infected already…

…To calm people down, the number of 15 within a week is not much for concern. If the number reaches more than a 100, it shall be a cause for concern…

…As of the moment, since we have no idea if this virus could become the next pandemic or just a big bust. What’s important is that we try to live a healthier lifestyle. Maybe that’s what this virus is all about anyway. It’s just telling us that maybe we should change our lifestyle into a healthier one.

http://tinyurl.com/rb6x3

The Michael Colucci opinion piece was initially posted on March 24, 2005, so it is an old recyled view - no news here. The original post: http://www.healthguidance.org/articles/2078/1/Has-the-Bird-Flu-Virus-Outbreak-Begun.html

Pixie – at 14:12 The Michael Colucci opinion piece was initially posted on March 24, 2005, so it is an old recyled view - no news here

Thanks, Pixie. That’s terrible that they would give it a current date. I was wondering how in eth heck I hadn’t heard about 15 cases in Turkey.

Maybe a mod can delete it for me. Thanks again.

“WHO: Deadly bird flu virus mutating Associated Press GENEVA - The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu which has killed at least 148 people is showing signs of being able to mutate and develop resistance to the most effective anti-viral drugs and any possible vaccines yet to be produced, a WHO scientist said Thursday.”http://tinyurl.com/pvp4q

tjclaw1 – at 14:32:

WHO: Deadly bird flu virus mutating

Comment: Okay, this is not good news - especially coming from WHO. I understand that a number of nation have stockpiled some human H5N1 vaccines but it looks like they may be minimally useful at best. Plus, considering the comments regarding anti-virals, it makes on wonder how useful they will be. Do we have anything that looks promising to fight this if it turns pandemic?

China shares bird flu samples in “breakthrough”-WHO from Reuters

…The samples, taken from some of the thousands of wild birds which died in Qinghai Lake in April 2005, have been sent to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC), a WHO collaborating centre in Atlanta, for further analysis, WHO officials said…

…”It gives us an animal index case for birds to have the samples from Qinghai Lake, which is the first time that particular type was detected in China,” Perdue told Reuters.

“It will go into the global collection we are making of the virus to see how it changes over time,” the American added…

http://tinyurl.com/nju7x

tjclaw1 – at 14:32 It is very interesting what is slowly coming out of Geneva.

more from the article you listed.

“The H5N1 virus is splitting into genetically different groups, said Mike Perdue, a team leader with WHO’s influenza program who took part in a two-day bird flu conference earlier this week sponsored by the U.N. health body.”

North Sumatra

Notice the article starts talking about the 25M,10M, 15F event we know of then adds:

five members of a family were sent to the Adam Malik Hospital in Medan after all of them were suspected of having the bird flu virus. Two of them were released on Monday but another died on the same day.

http://tinyurl.com/h79ex

Hmmmm…WHO admits that virus is mutating and that current vaccines and anti-virals may be of little use in a pandemic. And, China seems to have gotten more cooperative in the past few weeks. Yeah, that gives me a bad feeling. I think my PPF just went up.

banshee – at 15:02

“Hmmmm…WHO admits that virus is mutating and that current vaccines and anti-virals may be of little use in a pandemic. And, China seems to have gotten more cooperative in the past few weeks. Yeah, that gives me a bad feeling. I think my PPF just went up.”

Very interesting indeed…

I suspect that this may have to do with the WHO Influenza Pandemic Task Force meeting on Monday. Does anybody know if the meeting was only on Monday, or whether there have been other meetings scheduled for this week? I would have loved to be a fly on the wall in that meeting!

Plus, a new Director is supposed to be chosen soon (by end of October, I think).

I don’t think this news is anything we didn’t already know. I do wonder, however, if a pandemic may involve several different strains of H5N1, making it difficult to treat and come up with a vaccine.

Sounds like: “Publish or Perish”, they may have tried to get a vaccine but realize that it is rather late and need the help of the world

It’s not so much that they are telling us things that we don’t already know, it’s more that they are telling us things that we already know.

tjclaw1 – at 15:29 “meeting was only on Monday ??”

notice from the article:”Mike Perdue, who took part in a two-day bird flu conference earlier this week “ So it was at least 2 days.

Here’s something else I found on WHO’s website. Apparently there is a PanAmerican Health Organization World Health Organization meeting going on in D.C. this week. Here’s a link to the Progress Report on Health Disaster Preparedness. http://tinyurl.com/hqm68

Interesting excerpts: “One of the major shortcomings of countries in the region is the often limited focus on imminent or seasonal hazards. The preparedness of Member States for the influenza pandemic is an example and an indicator of the current shortcomings. http://tinyurl.com/emshu … Influenza Pandemic: A Special Case 25. The threat of a pandemic underscores the complementary roles of communicable disease experts and disaster managers. Preventing the transmission, early warning, laboratory diagnosis, protocols for treatments, and general case management calls for the expertise of epidemiologists, veterinarians and other health experts, not the special skills of disaster coordinators. Nevertheless, ‘’should a particularly lethal pandemic take hold, it will become a socioeconomic, health and political disaster, particularly given the fear that has been instilled in the population and the lack of effective prevention and treatment measures. This is where the expertise of the disaster units in the ministries of health, PAHO and WHO will be critical. A significant number of countries may overlook the potentially catastrophic impact of a pandemic because national health experts too often focus primarily on diagnosis and treatment protocols and underestimate the societal chaos that a highly virulent and infectious influenza would cause.’‘ “

Also, here’s a specific report on planning for an Influenza Pandemic:

Well, I was trying to hightlight some language and it didn’t work. So much for my basic editing skills…

tjclaw1 – at 16:08 highlight use three ‘ s before and after what you want to make bold. That is the easiest way.

Test

COMMENT

Question about the WHO:Deadly bird flu virus mutating article at 14:32. It says:

“The two most effective anti-viral drugs currently in use are also in danger of losing their potency…

“We know from surveillance studies and from hospital clinical studies that resistance to the two primary anti-viral drugs, the Tamiflu and Amantadine drugs, have already occurred,” Perdue said.

Anyone else think we are missing being given some ‘interesting’ info from Indo?!?

tjclaw1, 16:07: should a particularly lethal pandemic take hold, it will become a socioeconomic, health and political disaster, particularly given the fear that has been instilled in the population and the lack of effective prevention and treatment measures

Huh?? How about given how quickly things will break down and how unprepared the population is. Still, it’s good that some more people are seeing the seriousness. Hope it makes the newspapers.

Test Test

You can find a more complete version of the WHO story here.

Thanks InKy. Another interesting quote from that article:

“We’ve never seen the kinds of human infections with avian influenza viruses that we see with H5N1. We assume there are some unique genetic attributes of this virus that are allowing it to be so pathogenic in humans and to cause such high mortality,” said Perdue.

Risk of bird flu mutation increases in winter: WHO from Turkish Press

…The risk of a mutation of the bird flu virus increases in winter, the season of normal human flu, the World Health Organisation said Thursday. “The H5N1 virus does not sleep and still constitutes a danger,” said Mike Perdue, a doctor from the WHO programme to fight influenza…

http://tinyurl.com/zynbq

Mutation risk of avian flu growing, warns WHO

Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa Published: Thursday September 28, 2006

“Geneva- The risk of a mutation of avian flu was increasing, with the disease was showing signs of resistance to the most effective anti-viral drugs available, Dr Mike Perdue of influenza programme of the World Health Organization (WHO) said Thursday. Perdue also warned there was a greater chance of mutation in winter, adding that “the H5N1 strain of the virus does not sleep and always constitutes a danger.” (excerpt)

http://tinyurl.com/hhgdg

http://tinyurl.com/gsk87
On Thursday, September 28 2006 15:36 WIB the HUMANITIES - Kesehatan WHO called on the World shared the Sample of the influenza Virus

Berlin — MIOL: experts from the Organisation of the Health of the World (WHO) called on all the country in various parts of the world to give the sample of the influenza virus and the genetic series data free, that was believed in was the key to finding the potential vaccine to oppose pandemik bird flu. This approach was recommended by the special WHO team that just about pandemik influenza in Geneva, to last September 26. The team’s 21 members were announced last May to help Director General WHO concerning the technical problem in order to overcomes the fear that the virus H5Ni could attack humankind and resulted in millions of people being killed. David Heymann, the WHO special envoy for talking bird flu that Par the expert was trying to get the proposal concerning the best practice about the system shared the influenza virus and the specimen and the genetic series. Under the system that was developed by WHO, the sample of the virus could be divided between the laboratory freely the cost and each virus candidate must be for the production of the vaccine given to the producer of medicine without the cost also. But, the officials of the health has menunjukan attention in the possibility of several developing countries closing itself to divide virus information H5N1 the animal and humankind. In the meantime several developing countries said they will possibly lose the profit from panten medicine if the data was handed over to the west pharmacy company.

Posted at 6:13 by Niman at Flutrackers:

Two patients ”Suspect” Bird Flu entered RSUD Tasikmalaya Source TJ Finally MeninggalBandung, (HOMEWORK).- After being treated five days in Handsome Sadikin Space of the Hospital Poinciana Tree (RSHS) Bandung, suspect bird flu had the initials TJ (20), finally died on Thursday (28/9) struck 2.20 WIB. On The Same Day, casualties’s cousin, San (18), that took part in delivering the TJ body to Garut, entered RSHS Poinciana Tree Space and was stated as suspect bird flu.The OFFICIAL of the Handsome Hospital morgue of Sadikin Bandung carried the coffin ”suspect” bird flu, TJ (20) to be brought to the ambulance, on Thursday (28/9).Beforehand, TJ was stated positive contracted the virus H5N1 (Avian influenza/AI) in the second sample test.ANDRI GURNITA/HOMEWORK “Pasien TJ that was treated since Sunday and confirmed H5N1, last night died struck 2.20 WIB,” said the Managing Director RSHS Bandung, Dr. Cissy R. Sudjana the officer, in press information, in his office, on Thursday (28/9).According to Dr. Cissy, the TJ situation since being treated in RSHS has been bad although could improve the next day (on Monday, 25/9).”Pukul sembilan his situation night worsened, and struck one morning began to have the disturbance pernapasan,” he said.The disturbance of breathing that was experienced by TJ, very great.Efforts resusitasi (bantuan breathing made use of oxygen, red), only remained through to struck 02.20 WIB to the end TJ blew out the last breath.In accordance with the procedure continue to the handling of the body of the bird flu patient, the TJ body was wrapped in the pocket of the body.Approximately struck 5.30 WIB, the body was despatched to Kp.Probe the Stone, the Sukaratu Village, Kec.Banyuresmi, Kab.Garut to be buried in the funeral of the family.Therefore, casualties died resulting from the bird flu virus in West Java till at this time 19 people from 23 people who were stated positive.According to Kasubdin environmental Sanitation in the West Javanese Health Service, Dr. Fatimah Resmiati, suspect bird flu has spread in 18 regencies and the available city in West Java.Now, according to the note of RSHS Bandung, the number of patients suspect bird flu that had been treated by as many as 57 people.“Delapan including being stated positive and six including dying dunia,” said Dr. Cissy.The previous day, the Section Head West Javanese Livestock Breeding, Rachmat Setiadi, stated, the bird flu virus attacked the poultry in 22 from 25 cities/kab.In West Java.On the same day, San that remained at one house with TJ, was run off with to Poinciana Tree Space and was stated as suspect.San arrived in RSHS approximately struck 14.00 WIB.According to Ayi Sumaryati, the official of the field of the Community Health Centre of Kiaracondong Bandung, since the inspection on Tuesday (26/9), San has shown signs like the cough, pilek, and the fever.Therefore, the community health centre side at once wrote the recipe took the form of vitamin C, medicine pereda flu and medicine penurun hot, to prevent the condition more serious.“Kemudian on Wednesday (27/9) we took his blood for the inspection more comprehensive, but the San condition at that time still was not yet really healthy.And today (Thursday-red.) the determination for the inspection again, enggak knew him he went along to Garut,” said Ayi. Apart from San, he also worried one of the neighbours TJ, Gugun Useful (19), that already five days showed the cough and the fever.However, when being checked by the community health centre side, his body heat has begun to descend to 36.2 Celsius levels.Gugun that yesterday was met in his house, more chose quiet.He only hoped bird flu medicine could be immediately found.“Gugun quite frightened was infected, his matter he often to the side of (the TJ house).Even, several days ago he could sleep in the room TJ,” said roses (21), the nephew TJ.In the meantime, the brother TJ, IM that was treated in RSHS was stated by the negative contracted the virus H5N1.That was based on results of the second sample test by Balitbangkes in Jakarta.AntarmanusiaTouched on concerning the demographic factor of the Bandung City that densely-populated, till at this time, did not yet have the explanation concerning the influence of the geographical location on the process of the spread of the virus of AI. “Namun, must have special vigilance because of having the indication of the spread antarmanusia,” said the Head of the Centre of the tropics Illness and the Infection (TDIC) the Airlangga University, Dr. C. A. Nidom.Beforehand, Dr. Nidom had expected the existence of the spread antarmanusia.The case of bird flu in the Bandung City, continued he, increasingly strengthened his assumption.Moreover, Dr. Nidom also believe in had also the role of the functioning other mammal as the virus adaptor.He suspected the dog that ate chicken carcasses of playing a role as the virus adaptor.The patient in TasikIn the meantime, two patients suspect bird flu namely Atg (50) and his child, Mus (13), from the Cilumajang Village, Kec.Kawalu, the Tasikmalaya City, entered space of the isolation of the regional Public Hospital (RSUD) the Tasikmalaya City, on Thursday (28/9) struck 16.00 WIB. the two patients, already almost a week experienced the high fever, coughs, and breathless.According to NY.Mae, the wife Atg, beforehand had 20 chickens belonging to the Atg family that died suddenly.This chicken was taken his sample, to be researched by the Livestock Breeding Service, the Tasikmalaya City.The section head the Health of the Tasikmalaya City, Dr. Ahmad Haris, said, his side has coordinated with Dinkes West Java.Hoped, the team from Dinkes West Java on Friday morning (29/9), has been in RSUD Tasikmalaya.That not yet KLBAlthough again emerged the case suspect bird flu that was stated positive, West Java was not yet stated berstatus the extraordinary incident (KLB).That was sent by West Javanese Governor Danny Setiawan, after being in a meeting Plenary DPRD West Java on Thursday (28/9).Added, various methods could be carried out for the control of the spreading of the AI virus, with the condition for the community’s participation and all the related side.“Upaya like bio security, the mass poultry inspection, stamping out (the separation of the settlement with livestock breeding — red.), and the control of the poultry traffic.Could not be done by the government saja,” he said.Was based on the data, the AI plague in West Java the first time happened to mid September 2003 in Kab.Bogor.Up until the end of 2003, spread to 7 kab./the city.To 2003–2004 the number of deaths of the poultry reached 1.779.425 (27,68% of the population).Between 2004 s.D in September 2006, the status of the incident has been sporadic-plague.Gotten in 141 villages, 94 subdistricts to 21 kab./the city.The number of deaths of the poultry 83.726, consist of 50.200 chickens pedaging, 1.312 tails of the layer, 12.562 chickens talk to, 30 Bangkok chickens, 339 ducks, 19.239 birds puyuh, and 44 birds.(A-64/A-97/A-156/A-154/A-158)

Commonground- And so to create the “profit from the paten (sic) medicine” the virus must spread. So if Mother Nature doesn’t accomplish this, it may be highly profitable for those with the patent to give H5N1 a leg up on global venues.

InKy at 18:44 - “Namun, must have special vigilance because of having the indication of the spread antarmanusia,” said the Head of the Centre of the tropics Illness and the Infection (TDIC) the Airlangga University, Dr. C. A. Nidom.Beforehand, Dr. Nidom had expected the existence of the spread antarmanusia.The case of bird flu in the Bandung City, continued he, increasingly strengthened his assumption.Moreover, Dr. Nidom also believe in had also the role of the functioning other mammal as the virus adaptor.He suspected the dog that ate chicken carcasses of playing a role as the virus adaptor.”

antarmanusia = human to human

The gentleman speaking here is Professor Chairul A. Nidom, Indonesia’s leading infectious disease expert. He is saying that he increasingly suspects taht H5N1 is passing H2H, and also that some other mamal may be acting as a resevoir for the virus.

Professor Nidom’s absence on the recently formed WHO panel of expert advisors is unfortunate because o fthe vast knowledge he could bring to bear on H5N1 in Indonesia, where it is currently endemic. However, he is a political hot potato in Indonesia where he has taken a stand against the government many times regarding transparancy and honest action. He has maintained that H5N1 has been in Indonesia since 2003, he predicted its spread throughout the islands, and he is now saying clearly that he suspects they are seeing H2H or mammal to Human transmission. This is a man who is on the scene, whose credentials are impecable, and who we should listen to.

From Inky - at 18:44

On the same day, San that remained at one house with TJ, was run off with to Poinciana Tree Space and was stated as suspect.San arrived in RSHS approximately struck 14.00

Different Town:

The patient in TasikIn the meantime, two patients suspect bird flu namely Atg (50) and his child, Mus (13), from the Cilumajang Village, Kec.Kawalu, the Tasikmalaya City, entered space of the isolation of the regional Public Hospital (RSUD) the Tasikmalaya City, on Thursday (28/9) struck 16.00 WIB. the two patients, already almost a week experienced the high fever, coughs, and breathless.

Uh, the H5N1 virus is splitting into genetically different groups?!!!!!!! Folks, do we have our window, or is it still to soon?

anyhow, I agree with Banshee-at 15:02. My PPF just went up by two!

p.s. Canada adds tamiflu to off-patient drugs list. WOW!

p.s. Canada adds tamiflu to off-patient drugs list. WOW!

Canada adds Tamiflu to off-patent drugs list

banshee – at 15:34 It’s not so much that they are telling us things that we don’t already know, it’s more that they are telling us things that we already know.

Exactly. It is significant that this is being communicated directly from WHO. Significant, and I’d say, very worrisome.

Who has posted some very interesting graphs. (OK I am a visual learner)

http://tinyurl.com/zf7yf

graphs like cases by age, onset dates, country

 “resistance to the two primary anti-viral drugs, the Tamiflu and Amantadine drugs, have already occurred”

“Canada adds tamiflu to off-patient drugs list” Not so wow.

(Is it too late to get our country off the long backorder waiting list and get our antiviral money back; run PSAs, buy some county-level food and PPE preps, and cross-train workers? )

banshee – at 15:34 “It’s not so much that they are telling us things that we don’t already know, it’s more that they are telling us things that we already know.”

Afraid I’ve been going by, When TPTB ‘fess up and say, “Oops -we’re screwed”, I hope I’ve had enough sense to start SIP before then, since they don’t seem comfortable coming clean until they are sure it is occurring, and by definition, too late…

WHO: New drugs needed to deal with deadly bird flu virus

The Associated Press

Published: September 28, 2006 (excerpt)

‘’‘GENEVA New drugs are needed to treat the H5N1 strain of bird flu, which has killed at least 148 people, because of the possibility that it could mutate and develop resistance to the most effective anti-viral medicines, a WHO scientist said Thursday.

“We know that there are (H5N1) viruses that are circulating that are resistant to these drugs, and so there is an urgent need to look at other anti-viral avenues,” said Mike Perdue, a team leader with WHO’s influenza program who took part in a two-day bird flu conference earlier this week sponsored by the U.N. health body.’‘’

Oseltamivir and amantadine, sold as Tamiflu and Symmetrel respectively, are the only known effective treatments for people who have contracted the virus. But there have been isolated instances in Asia where infected patients did not respond to the drugs.

“We know from surveillance studies and from hospital clinical studies that resistance to the two primary anti-viral drugs, the Tamiflu and amantadine drugs, has already occurred,” said Perdue. The limited number of identified resistant strains, however, are not yet numerous enough to suggest a larger trend in H5N1 resistance.

Another concern for scientists is whether a vaccine can be developed to immunize humans against the virus. No such vaccine yet exists, but there are some promising candidates.

However tests on viral strains collected from different countries have shown that H5N1 is splitting into genetically different groups, Perdue said. As a result, new vaccines will need to be produced for every significant mutation — as happens for seasonal flu viruses.

“We are going to have to come to the realization that these viruses are genetically variable,” Perdue said. “The vaccines that we have predicted to be protective today may not be protective a year from now.”

The areas on which research needs to focus, according to the WHO experts, are developing better tests for the virus, producing vaccines and anti-viral drugs, improving H5N1 surveillance among bird populations and understanding why the strain causes such serious illness in humans.

We’ve never seen the kinds of human infections with avian influenza viruses that we see with H5N1. We assume there are some unique genetic attributes of this virus that are allowing it to be so pathogenic in humans and to cause such high mortality,” said Perdue.

http://tinyurl.com/m8v6c

How has it become resistant to tamiflu if H5N1 has not had SIGNIFICANT H2H ? Or are people feeding their chickens the tamiflu in a desperate attempt to save their live stock ?

DARWIN – at 22:08

That is one of the best questions I have seen.

Teaser on WGN nightly news, midbroadcast: “The bird flu may be spreading in the worst possible way.” Hope there’s something useful coming.

DARWIN - at 22;08 “How has it become resistant to tamiflu if H5N1 has not had SIGNIFICANT H2H? Or are people feeding their chickens the tamiflu in a desperate attempt to save their live stock?”

Another question is: Just how much Tamiflu has been given prophylacticly?

I find it pretty amazing that almost no details are coming out about how things are proceeding and that WHO volunteers nothing publicly about these matters (treatment outcomes included). I think that the medical community will quite rightly feel that this thing has come out of left field once it hits, and will be very angry that “someone should have told them” a few more of these details.

WGN news said that bird flu was mutating so that it may become easier for humans to become infected (hope that paraphrase is correct), it’s resistant to antivirals, and there is no vaccine. (No drumroll or punchline :-\ ) This was in the Health segment tonight, but it was very brief and isn’t yet on their website.

Klatu at 21:50 Thanks…interesting document.

I find this interesting in relation to Karo last winter/spring…I would have to ask why when there has been so much spin and blocking of information…do we know get a clear concise statement saying that antivirals and vaccines basically won’t work.

It’s like analylzing the Government of China…There is always an angle and a reason behind everything they do…

…as always the reason for hinding the information becomes apparent(pigs in China) and the reason for their new found frankeness and openness will become apparent in the near future…

…I still say their biggest problem is that they grossly underestimate the intelligence of the general public.

When they finally realize the writing is on the wall and it’s not far away…they will start ‘singing like jaybirds’ because they will be thinking about consequences and responsibility.

I don’t want to see this for a while.

They had better not tell us…Oh, by the way, those pigs in China…widespread asymptomatic H5N1…now symptomatic.

I put my money on Relenza as the drug of choice. It has not been used nearly as much thus probably hasn’t developed resistence. It delivers an aerosolized treatment dose deep into the lungs which I have read is a more effective way to treat H5N1.

Notice this is a 21F and not the 15F of resent concern

Sister of Indonesia bird flu casualty also has H5N1

A 21-year-old Indonesian woman, the sister of a boy who died of bird flu earlier this month, is suffering from the same disease, the health ministry said on Friday. The patient, currently being treated at a hospital in East Java province,…

The Soetomo hospital in East Java capital Surabaya said the woman was also suffering from pneumonia.”Her condition is stable but her pneumonia has not improved yet. She is still being supported by a respirator,” Urip Murtejo, the hospital’s deputy director, told Reuters…

http://tinyurl.com/gagmf

DennisC – at 23:52,

And notice that her brother died earlier in the month. Different time regarding onset of symptoms.

I doubt that they would feed Tamiflu to their chickens- it would cost more than the chicken is worth.- Not sure about their cost for pigs.

The bottom line is the existance of Tamiflu resistant strains “proves” H2H or at least H2B2H or H2S2H events. I just don’t see many other reasonable possibilities.

USA

CIty schools ready for bird flu

By AMANDA STEWART astewart@potomacnews.com Friday, September 29, 2006

The bird flu has not spread to the United States yet, but local officials want to be prepared if it does.

<snip>

If an avian flu pandemic does hit the area, school officials estimate that between 30 and 50 percent of teachers and school staff could be affected.

The school division’s plan includes preparing for unusually large absence rates among teachers and students.

School officials are also considering the possibility that schools may have to be closed temporarily during an outbreak, either to help slow the spread of the disease or so schools can be used as emergency facilities for victims.

“Prince William Hospital will not be able to accommodate all of the people affected in a pandemic flu, so our schools would be used as emergency facilities,” Thompson said.

Officials will also post educational posters in the schools on proper hand washing, covering coughs and other ways to help slow the spread of disease.

Educating students on those skills could also help slow the spread of other more common illnesses that often spread in schools, Thompson said.

Last year, Manassas schools saw a large number of flu and strep throat cases, she said.

“Too often kids share drinks or don’t wash their hands. So we’re hoping this will help that,” she said.

If a pandemic flu does strike, state health officials predict that there could be anywhere between 2,700 and 6,300 deaths and 12,00 to 28,500 hospitalizations for the disease in Virginia. An estimated 2.5 million people could become sick.

“We certainly don’t mean this presentation to alarm anyone,” School Board Chairman Arthur Bushnell said Tuesday. “But we need to be aware of this and we need to have a plan.”

http://tinyurl.com/nfefc

I am about to create the news summary for this thread then I will create a new one so you might like to hold your posting for about 30–40 minutes. Cheers and thanks

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