I’m not saying that this was taken from an official document or not, but you may want to try your own hand at filling in the blanks
Scenario I CFR (case fatality rate): 70% % susceptible: 90%
Estimated Total Dead from flu: 5 Billion Collateral Deaths: 100 Million (mostly starvation and tribal formation) Total Deaths: 5.1 Billion Duration of Pandemic: 30 days first wave, 12 months second wave Best way to avoid pandemic: Shelter in Place first wave, get lucky second wave Economic Damage: What is an economy? Severity of Infrastructure Damage: Minimal Post Pandemic Career Choices: Scavenger, Farmer, Warlord, and historian Probability of Scenario I: 20% given current Indonesian data Best Pre-Pandemic Government Advice: Business as Usual, keep open borders and travel and get it over with ASAP. Gov agencies should avoid discussing this scenario as nothing will help anyway. Expect change in the government post pandemic. Best Prep advice: prep Food for 30 days, Weapons for 12 months, Cabin far away in the woods Discussion: While this may be the worst case in respect for total dead, it could be the best case scenario to prevent damage to infrastructure, although infrastructure won’t really help the survivors much.
Scenario II CFR (case fatality rate): 70% % susceptible: 30%
Estimated Total Dead from flu: 3 Billion Collateral Deaths: 900 Million Total Deaths: 3.9 Billion Duration of Pandemic: 60 days first wave, 12 months second wave Best way to avoid pandemic: Shelter in Place first wave, get lucky second wave Economic Damage: Severe on a global scale, but could theoretically be recoverable Severity of Infrastructure Damage: Potentially severe as survivors scavenged and fought for scarce resources Post Pandemic Career Choices: Scavenger, Farmer, Warlord, laborer Probability of Scenario II: 20% given current Indonesian data Best Pre-Pandemic Government Advice: Travel will quickly peter out, so no need to close down travel. No amount of food preps will help here as most living will run out of food within a week and will be scavenging from the living and dead. Best Prep Advice: Weapons, Form local clans. Discussion: This may be the worst case scenario for infrastructure damage.
Scenario III CFR (case fatality rate): 40% % susceptible: 90%
Estimated Total Dead from flu: 3 Billion Collateral Deaths: 500 Million Total Deaths: 3.5 Billion Duration of Pandemic: 30 days first wave, 12 months second wave Best way to avoid pandemic: Shelter in Place first wave, get lucky second wave Economic Damage: Better than scenario II, no major infrastructure damage due to high infectivity Severity of Infrastructure Damage: Minimal Post Pandemic Career Choices: Scavenger, Farmer, Warlord, infrastructure operations Probability of Scenario III: 20% given current Indonesian data Best Pre-Pandemic Government Advice: None Best Prep Advice: Food, Guns, Ammo, Bug out location Discussion: This is my bet for the actual pandemic.
Scenario IV CFR (case fatality rate): 2.5% % susceptible: 90%
Estimated Total Dead from flu: 120 million Collateral Deaths: 10 million Total Deaths: 130 million Duration of Pandemic: 30 days first wave, 90 days each additional wave Best way to avoid pandemic: You call this a pandemic? Sheesh, why I remember when… Economic Damage: Will people work or not? Severity of Infrastructure Damage: Minimal Post Pandemic Career Choices: Business as usual after a 30% drop in the Economy. Best Pre-Pandemic Government Advice: Prep for three weeks… Best Prep Advice: Ignore the naysayers and go to work Probability of Scenario IV: 20% given wishful WHO praying upon a star… Discussion: And if you think this is the pandemic that will happen, well then you must draw a government check.
Scenario V CFR (case fatality rate): % susceptible:
Estimated Total Dead from flu: Collateral Deaths: Total Deaths: Duration of Pandemic: Best way to avoid pandemic: Economic Damage: Severity of Infrastructure Damage: Post Pandemic Career Choices: Best Pre-Pandemic Government Advice: Best Prop Advice Probability of Scenario V: Discussion:
temp man – at 20:31 “I’m not saying that this was taken from an official document or not, but you may want to try your own hand at filling in the blanks”, Temp Man, can you at least give a clue from whence this came. At least that would tell us, how serious “THEY” are taking in the backrooms.
ok, temp man
(the “Best” Pre-Pandemic Government Advice: Business as Usual, keep open borders and travel and get it over with ASAP. Gov agencies should avoid discussing this scenario as nothing will help anyway” looks too much like what they say *and* what they do around here…)
(walking off to open a bottle of de-alcoholized wine, feed the cat, do some laundry, and try not to mutter to myself under my breath too much tomorrow when I’m outside …)
temp man,
If this is written by you, then we will discuss it as written by you. Otherwise, please give us an indication of where this came from.
The reason being that it is impossible to comment on numbers that we have no idea how they were derived in the first place. If it was something pulled out of thin air, then thank you, I think I will save my time.
Sounds like to win the game one should be a Farmer/forest scavenger with a shotgun out in the remote woods and have a part time on-line job for the cases of limited damage and have a few months of supplies. I am there. :)
anon_22 – at 20:57 Here Here.
temp man – at 20:31 I suspect that the collateral death rate is too low, especially in industrialized nations, and ESPECIALLY if CFR is high. Waterborne diseases will be rampant (ever look at pond/stream water under a microscope?) A mere scratch can lead to life-threatening infection, let alone what an axe can do in inexperienced hands. Packs of starving pets can bring down the largest man, even when armed. And how does one get to be a Warlord? Probably by the old tradition of murder, rape and plunder on all the other Warlords and crew. Civilization is a thin veneer, Hobbs had it right when he said that life can be short, cold and callus.
I’ve already done my time as Scavenger, Farmer, and Laborer. I need to see if my university has some courses in Warlord 101, might as well try something new after the PanFlu.
temp man-This looks bogus to me. Looks like you had some fun and maybe by accident got close to some possibilities, just like anyone of us would, if we decided to embark on this exercise.
This is the third “wild hair” submission in two days. Is this an “indicator” we fluwikians should pay attention to? Or is this just one of those occasional anomolous eruptions that subsides with inattention.
Ok, I’m giving myself a 50–50 chance of living or dying. I die nothing matters anymore, thats a given. Ok, I managage to keep my self and my kids alive, we have food, heat and water source. I agree if those that survive do so because we sheltered in place will have financial issues, to put it mildly. Why the limited options on Post Pandemic Career Choices?
Buildings will still be standing, emptier perhaps but standing. Products and services will be needed, a whole new cottage industry will be started by the survivors doing what needs to be done working for the greater good. Barter will make a comeback.
I have prepped and will continue to do so. My question tho is, how do you all feel about the supposed violance that could happen. Should I really be doing more to protect myself from roving bands of bad people?
Medical Maven – at 21:10 “Wild hair” submission
I agree that this looks like a wild hair item. (I view the sun spot talks and zodiac talks the same). Looks like someone has played a lot of computer games or have been reading “report from Iron Mountain”. I think that many people turn to such “comedy relief” during times of stress and the ramp up of tension.
Laughter is the best medicine.
I think this should go in the “Humor” thread. Hey, *I* thought it was funny. Besides, last I counted there wasn’t 5 billion people in the world.
I hope that temp man is just fooling around, because these are all *extremely* depressing scenarios.
temp man @ 20:31 Scenario VI: Everyone muddles through as best they can.
I have no real data on what will be. (My crank powered crystal ball is still on order). So my best guess (game theory) would be half the possible range- 50 % CFR, 50% attack rate or a death rate of around 25% (1.2 billion world, 60 million US).
Notice that the average US household size is around 2 to 3. So imagine one death in every two households and 1/4 the work force gone (more likely around 1/6 of the work force since H5N1 average age for deaths is 14).
There will be a lot of pain and grief, but the world will go on and we will “muddle through” (as Wolf said). Retirees will come out of retirement to work since there will be a shortfall in the workforce and Soc. Sec. will be bankrupt. But life will go on.
Property values will fall, Science and technology advances will slow down, people will eat more fresh fruit and fewer Starbucks, Tourism will slow and do-it yourself home improvements will increase.
No need for health care workers after the flu? No need to teach kids? (They managed to do that in the 1700′s in the US.) If that is the quality of government thinking, we are right to rely on our own resources. Plus, has ANY flu pandemic ever had over 50% CFR? I know H5N1 is in the 50–75% range now for identified cases, but it is not a given that it will stay there. And there may be at least some milder cases that went unmeasured, as in Korea but apparently did not in Cambodia. I think the thread starter needs a different set of probabilities. The lack of government propaganda to prep does suggest though either a fatalism (as suggested by temp man) or sheer incompetence. I favor the latter.
Give me some dice,,,,,,,,,,,want to throw snake eyes
INFOMASS – at 21:56
Yes, incompetence is more common than conspiracy in my world.
And my “gut” says that a 50% x 50% sinario is too high. (my “gut” now says, more like a 5% to 25% CFR). But with lack of data, game theory would tell you to take a middle value since if all values are likely, then the midpoint will generate the minimum error.
Teach the kids- my guess there is there will be a lot of combined home and on-line teaching after things “settle down”.
Wow, you all sure are suckers!
Temp man, this is a slice of rolled gold! Ab-so-lutely brilliant! I love, love, loved it! It was so bleeping funny, I read it to my wife four times! Good on ya.
And for those of you “wondering” how to become a warlord, save yourselves the trouble and just put all your food, valuables and that which you hold dear outside the front door!
; )
hoo-ey
temp man, post your source. Otherwise, the number are just fantasy and wild speculation.
Snake eyes it is,,,,,,,,not an offical paper of any kind but the thoughts of one person,,,,,,,,,,does not read like a government paper,,,,been there did that.
Temp Man isn’t saying whether this came from an official document. Well, I think it did. But not a government official document. More like a video game or role playing game official document.
Dungeons and Dragons anyone?
Can I be an Orc? What do I get if if get to the 7th level?
The fake rumors and fake inside information and fake leaked documents are amusing, up to a point. But I think whomever is writing them could show a little more creativity and verisimilitude.
Monotreme – at 23:49 The fake rumors and fake inside information and fake leaked documents are amusing, up to a point. But I think whomever is writing them could show a little more creativity and verisimilitude.
Yeah, Monotreme, but first they’d have to look up what verisimilitude means. ;)
Edna Mode – at 00:31
Well, some 14 year olds have very good vocabularies ;-)
With those CFR rates temp man uses and if the infection rate matches the susceptibility, I can live with the scenarios. Mightn’t like it but it is all plausible.
>25% of 6 billion would be 1.5 billion! If border’s are not shut down, and individuals don’t deliberately, severely limit their social contact- then why wouldn’t it escalate to worse than 1918 proportions. No one thinks it will escalate to worse than 1918 proportions…that is because everyone assumes that we live in such an advanced society. We have advanced communications and knowledge of how the virus is spread. We just have to act accordingly. If not_who knows. I picked this scenario(25%) because…that is how scared I would be if our alertness levels dropped… to the point that inital reports of H2H were massive and uncontainable!
you are right 25% of 6 billion is 1.5 billion I must have typed funny or I have been using old numbers, or I put in 0.2 instead of 0.25.. or…. up to late. I checked with the US census- they now place the world poplulation at 6.546 billion. So I guess it really should be 1.636 billion world and 74.96 million US.
Of course I still think that temp man has a game in mind and it is just for “fun” to keep from taking ourselves to seriously.
Yep,true,true. We have to test ourselves, talk through what if’s and attract all the big name author’s! (The POWER).
Games do play a role in the way we live our lives.In fact, we take thing’s seriously, such as epidemics and disease, so we can continue our fun and games. I might go to bed!
From commentary to today’s Effective Measure http://tinyurl.com/fffjf
snip~
The worst case would end all democracy on this planet and we might be plunged into a warlord type of world. Posted by: M. Randolph Kruger | September 27, 2006 11:48 AM
I do not know if there is a connection to the postings of “temp man”, however I found the wording interesting
INFOMASS
After 40 plus years in the employ of Uncle Sam, can agree 99% in that Incompetence far outscores Conspiracy. The other 1%? Well, there was the conspiracy to assasinate Lincoln, all the facts were never found out, and I have an open mind. All we have to do is look at the present day debacle in Iraq, Incompetance far outweighs the small bit of Conspiracy, IMHO. Sorry for my political remarks. Control of the Wiki goes back to normal now.. Upside is it is a beautiful day here in Massachusetts..
NauticalMan – at 17:18 Massachusetts/politics
Ah the home of friendly priests, non-swimming senators, slave markets and the Salem witch trials. The point is that civilization endures.
PS did you know that there were territorial capitals and trade with Europe from “New Mexico” before the Pilgrims ever set foot in Mass.? People back East often think they were first for some unknown reason. But then the Spanish where cutting off the natives feet as punishment a hundred years before the Salem hangings. Again, humanity goes on and can endure a lot.
and it is a beautiful day here in NM - 64F and the Aspens are beginning to change to gold.
I’m not saying that this was taken from an official document or not, but you may want to try your own hand at filling in the blanks
Sorry, I forgot that implied snarky doesn’t translate well to a written blog…. For those of you who do not understand management by scenario, In order for the “experts” to give advice to senior management, they first have to map out what are the most probable outcomes, assign a probability, and give advice based upon the most probable outcomes. Senior management, however, still want to see all of the possible outcomes, even of low probability, so that they can judge for themselves what are the range of decisions to make.
AS a side note, I agree with the posters above that most conspiracy’s don’t exist. Inertia is the number one factor of why things don’t get done. Number 2 is the fact that bearers of (predictive) bad news are often ostracized in a large organizations and therefore are self selected out of upper management. Number 3 is that no one is ever fired for not making a decision, but many are for making a decision that turns out wrong. Self selection dictates in large organizations that the higher up you go, the better able you are to defer decisions or at least pass the buck to the designated patsy.
and the following is the proper format, I didn’t realize that carriage returns didn’t copy and paste….
So, to reiterate the original intent. What scenario data can you plug in? Given current conditions, what are the various probabilities that a total low impact event will occur?
To be quite morbid, I fail to see any probabilistic scenario that doesn’t entail severe economic disruption. This is why I just spent another million dollars buying a business that is heavily dependent on tourism. Why? Because if a pandemic occurs, I conclude it will be severe, and everyone loses everything, so I will not be any worse off than my neighbor. On the other hand, if it doesn’t occur, or if it occurs 24 months or longer down the road, I am better off than if I just stuck my head in the sand and did nothing. I say these things to put perspective on all the chatter I see on these flu boards. Criticize all you like about TBTB doing nothing to “get ready” for a pandemic. Maybe their pandemic scenario analysis looks similar to mine and they concluded that the best course of action is to ignore the threat on a macro level. On a micro level, I am prepped to become the next warlord as well… ;-)
Scenario I
CFR (case fatality rate): 70%
Percentage susceptible: 90%
No. of waves: 2
Estimated Total Dead from flu: 5 Billion
Collateral Deaths: 100 Million (mostly starvation and tribal formation)
Total Deaths: 5.1 Billion
Duration of Pandemic: 30 days first wave, 12 months second wave
Best way to avoid pandemic: Shelter in Place first wave, get lucky second wave
Economic Damage: What is an economy?
Severity of Infrastructure Damage: Minimal Post
Pandemic Career Choices: Scavenger, Farmer, Warlord, and historian
Probability of Scenario I: 20% given current Indonesian data
Best Pre-Pandemic Government Advice: Business as Usual, keep open borders and travel and get it over with ASAP. Gov agencies should avoid discussing this scenario as nothing will help anyway. Expect change in the government post pandemic.
Best Prep advice: prep Food for 30 days, Weapons for 12 months, Cabin far away in the woods
Discussion: While this may be the worst case in respect for total dead, it could be the best case scenario to prevent damage to infrastructure, although infrastructure won’t really help the survivors much.
Scenario II
CFR (case fatality rate): 70%
Percentage susceptible: 30%
No. of waves: 2
Estimated Total Dead from flu: 3 Billion
Collateral Deaths: 900 Million
Total Deaths: 3.9 Billion
Duration of Pandemic: 60 days first wave, 12 months second wave
Best way to avoid pandemic: Shelter in Place first wave, get lucky second wave
Economic Damage: Severe on a global scale, but could theoretically be recoverable
Severity of Infrastructure Damage: Potentially severe as survivors scavenged and fought for scarce resources
Post Pandemic Career Choices: Scavenger, Farmer, Warlord, laborer
Probability of Scenario II: 20% given current Indonesian data
Best Pre-Pandemic Government Advice: Travel will quickly peter out, so no need to close down travel. No amount of food preps will help here as most living will run out of food within a week and will be scavenging from the living and dead.
Best Prep Advice: Weapons, Form local clans.
Discussion: This may be the worst case scenario for infrastructure damage.
Scenario III
CFR (case fatality rate): 40%
Percentage susceptible: 90%
No. of waves: 2
Estimated Total Dead from flu: 3 Billion
Collateral Deaths: 500 Million
Total Deaths: 3.5 Billion
Duration of Pandemic: 30 days first wave, 12 months second wave
Best way to avoid pandemic: Shelter in Place first wave, get lucky second wave
Economic Damage: Better than scenario II, no major infrastructure damage due to high infectivity
Severity of Infrastructure Damage: Minimal
Post Pandemic Career Choices: Scavenger, Farmer, Warlord, infrastructure operations
Probability of Scenario III: 20% given current Indonesian data
Best Pre-Pandemic Government Advice: None
Best Prep Advice: Food, Guns, Ammo, Bug out location
Discussion: This is my bet for the actual pandemic.
Scenario IV
CFR (case fatality rate): 2.5%
Percentage susceptible: 90%
No. of waves: 4
Estimated Total Dead from flu: 120 million
Collateral Deaths: 10 million
Total Deaths: 130 million
Duration of Pandemic: 30 days first wave, 90 days each additional wave
Best way to avoid pandemic: You call this a pandemic? Sheesh, why I remember when…
Economic Damage: Will people work or not?
Severity of Infrastructure Damage: Minimal
Post Pandemic Career Choices: Business as usual after a 30% drop in the Economy.
Best Pre-Pandemic Government Advice: Prep for three weeks…
Best Prep Advice: Ignore the naysayers and go to work
Probability of Scenario IV: 20% given wishful WHO praying upon a star…
Discussion: And if you think this is the pandemic that will happen, well then you must draw a government check.
Scenario V (I would like others to fill in the blanks with their scenario’s?????)
CFR (case fatality rate):
Percentage susceptible:
No. of waves:
Estimated Total Dead from flu:
Collateral Deaths:
Total Deaths:
Duration of Pandemic:
Best way to avoid pandemic:
Economic Damage:
Severity of Infrastructure Damage:
Post Pandemic Career Choices:
Best Pre-Pandemic Government Advice:
Best Prep Advice:
Probability of Scenario V:
Discussion:
Note: I had to edit to clear up some formatting problems so I threw in carriage returns where they seemed appropriate. - pogge
GRRRR
Still no carriage returns.
I give up.
temp man – at 13:44
Here’s an idea, take a look at the “Text Formatting Rules”. The link is at the bottom of the page.
thanks for the fix
since pandemic will wipe out tourism, I’m curious as to why you’d invest a million dollars in a tourist related business at this stage?
to clarify my question… was the price of the tourist related business depressed because of a potential pandemic?
If we are to take temp man seriously as he apparently wants us to, could he link us to any serious scenario analysis which looks anything like his posts? I have not seen any that remotely resemble his CAR, CFR and probabilities. Nor is it clear if his scenarios lead to any intelligent policy choices aside from accumulating weaponry. And isn’t that the purpose of scenario analysis - to elucidate policy choices? I put more faith in Dr. Dave with his probabilities than temp man. If he is not a troll, he is too far off base for me to take his scenarios seriously.
I find these numbers probable
Scenario V
CFR (case fatality rate) 5–10%
chronic sequelae rate 5–10% (those individuals who have life-long, life-limiting health complications from H5N1 infection.
of waves: 80% from 2–3 waves that may blend together…the another 15% over a decade of aftershocks.
Estimated Total Dead from flu:
Collateral Deaths:
Total Deaths:
Duration of Pandemic: short and sharp…twelve or less months with a decade of aftershocks.
Best way to avoid pandemic: can’t be avoided
Economic Damage: recoverable…most post-pandemic periods are expansionary.
Severity of Infrastructure Damage: don’t know.
Post Pandemic Career Choices: survivors will have excellent construction and self-reliance training.
Best Pre-Pandemic Government Advice: The probabilities point to…we’re screwed…SO TELL THE TRUTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Best Prop Advice Probability of Scenario V: not sure about the question…probability of this scenario…80%
Discussion: Even under the scenario I mention…there is an 80% chance that you will walk away with no after-effects if you are infected and an additional twenty percent won’t be infected at all…further increasing the odds of survivability with vitality.
Civilization has taken hits like this before and survived and we will again.
The solution is not SIP-staying in place…the only solution is to work together in communties that will survive together.
If all we have are haves and have nots then we will have armageddon.
moeb,
It was a good deal, high synergies with my existing business, and to be quite frank, I like to gamble. However, my lawyer chuckled when I insisted on a “national emergency” clause in the contract that gives me an huge payment deferral in case of problem like a pandemic or another 9/11. The seller thought I was strange but okayed it anyway.
Infomass, links to data? Hmmm. We could use the current WHO CFR for 2006 to generate a CFR of 66% and that is with doctor intervention!!!!! who table I can easily estimate that it could hit 70 without medications. As for CAR, well now, that is an unknown variable, now isn’t it? How about saying that today, it is .0001 % because it isn’t going anywhere now. And if it goes pandemic, say like we see in, hmmmm, chickens perhaps? Pretty much a flock infectivity rate of 100% if I have read the OIE reports correctly. Now if we vary the morbidity rates between 100% (probably not realisitic as most flock deaths are probably highly inbred and genetically pure) in a worse case scenario to something that may be more along the lines of other historical plagues, then we can start creating other scenarios. Now, how about probabilities of a specific scenario actually occuring. Well, SWAG it. (Scientific Wild Ass Guess). Is it more likely for a mutation to reduce virulence from current 70% rate to 2.5%? just because it jumps a species barrier? How about infection rates? Novel viral presentations may actually imply higher infection rates because of immune system naivete, while second and subsequent waves imply lower infection rates. Therefore, I would guess that a serious High Path H5N1 outbreak amoung humans would have greater infection rates than a High Path H1 outbreak, wouldn’t you?
Tom I like this guy.. heck I might even let him be warlord (chuckles)
And as for a real depressing number 76.7% is the current WHO death rate for indonesia.
temp man: If you are saying that you made up the scenarios, that is fine. Everyone is guessing what is really unknowable. You can take the current CFR and assume that it will be that high or worse. Tom DVM assumes a lower CFR, perhaps because of human genetic diversity or the possible drift in the virus. The current attack rate probably depends on social and personal responses (Philly vs. St. Louis in 1918) and those would also influence timing and collateral damage. My question was if someone serious who is paid by others to assign probabilities has come up with 90% infection and 70% CFR’s as significant probabilities. That doesn’t mean your guesses are wrong, any more than it means that Tom’s are wrong. But aside from writing in emergency clauses, and buying a gun, does it lead you to do anything differently?
People here may want to see Dr. Bob’s work,(long time wikians will remember Dr. Bob) notice they will be doing a “Pandemic Asset Value Study” It will be interesting to see what values they choose.
I’ll play, I used to be a Dungeon Master.
Scenario Oremus
CFR (case fatality rate): first wave 67, second wave 30, third wave 4
Percentage susceptible: first wave 50, second wave 20, third wave 20
No. of waves:3
Estimated Total Dead from flu: first wave 2.2 Billion, second wave 84 Million, third wave 10.4 Million
Collateral Deaths: first wave 3 Billion, second wave 20 Million, third wave 20 Million
Total Deaths: first wave 5.2 Billion, second wave 104 Million, third wave 30.4 Million
Duration of Pandemic: 2 years
Best way to avoid pandemic: Neighborhood communities impose localized self-quarantine with neighborhood militia. Individuals in community prepped for minimum of six months. Resupply between waves. Neighbor help neighbor.
Economic Damage: Total collapse of economy, new nations formed worldwide.
Severity of Infrastructure Damage: Infrastructure collapse due to lack of personnel and vital replacement parts. Restarting infrastructure will require training survivors to fill positions.
Post Pandemic Career Choices:Scavanger, tradesman, farmer, engineer in alternative power supplies.
Best Pre-Pandemic Government Advice: Strategic food reserves, and keep the power grid up.
Best Prep Advice: Minimum food and water for six months, 1 to 2 years preferred.
Probability of Scenario V:100 minus 0 to 100
Discussion: This is a civilization buster. This is based on it going pandemic today, numbers are subject to change with time. Wish we had more time.
Yikes! I’m not sure I like this thread anymore… Oremus you made the hair on the back of my neck stand up :-(
RE: Post pandemic career choices—so should I be studying for my warlord(lady) certificate now?
lol
i need a D&D dice set. It could help with figuring out our civilizations total hit points.
Oremus,
I believe that Policy makers (as opposed to Policy Planners) have come to the same conclusions that I have. That on a Macro level, Nothing, now, can really be done to prevent or diminish the effects of a pandemic. Let me repeat that. Nothing On A Macro Level. Our one best attempt to do something on a macro level, mass extermination of chickens in Hong Kong, 1997, failed. However, on a micro level, individuals can prepare, and they are doing so.
temp man – at 17:35 nothing at the macro level,
I don’t really believe that. Some things like having reserves of coal at power plants, chlorine at water treatment plants, training of national guard in sanitation support, placing computer disconnects in the power grid systems, and so on might help to dimminish effects.
Here is an article from the Ravalli Republic county newspaper, published Friday, November 18, 2005. Although this has been posted before, it is pertinent to this discussion.
Hamilton officials briefed on possibility of bird flu By PERRY PEARSON - Ravalli Republic
The chances of a pandemic bird flu hitting the Bitterroot Valley anytime soon are extremely slim, Ravalli County health and emergency officials told Hamilton city leaders at their meeting Tuesday.
But if one were to hit, similar to the worldwide Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, as many as 8,000 Bitterroot residents could die.
“These pandemics, usually you have about three a century, and we are about due for another one,” said Dr. Marshall Bloom, associate director at Rocky Mountain Laboratories. … Mayor Joe Petrusaitis requested Bloom and others speak to city officials about the bird flu, which is making headlines in the news lately. …
Bloom was joined Tuesday by Charmell Owens, Ravalli County’s emergency preparedness coordinator, Ron Nicholas, the county’s disaster and emergency services coordinator, and Dr. Richard Eggleston, the county’s health officer. ….
Owens said the ‘8,000 deaths’ number comes from a worst-case prediction that of the about 40,000 people living in Ravalli County, 40 to 50 percent of those people would get the pandemic flu. Of those with the flu, 50 to 60 percent would die.
This is the link. http://tinyurl.com/qkhqh
This is the joint projection of the BioSecurity Lab staff and the County’s emergency preparedness coordinator. It is a one in five kill rate using the low numbers and it is almost one in three kill rate from the general population just from the pandemic using the high numbers.
Anthing close to this makes a number of the above scenarios very realistic.
There is a lot that can be done at the policy level. In fact, I’d like to suggest that they haven’t even started yet. A very small minority of senior officials might be waking up to the nightmare but I don’t see leaders rolling up their sleeves just yet.
By the time they role up their sleeves, it will quite possibly be too late!
Oremus – at 15:54 -
Severity of Infrastructure Damage: Infrastructure collapse due to lack of personnel and vital replacement parts. Restarting infrastructure will require training survivors to fill positions.
Easy natural resources are depleted. Can a post civbuster society drill down 5 miles for oil? No feedstock for plastics. Can they mine low grade iron and coal for steel in odd places? Can they farm with all the invasive weeds growing everywhere? If we loose civilation, can it be restarted?
Oremus – at 15:54 -
Severity of Infrastructure Damage: Infrastructure collapse due to lack of personnel and vital replacement parts. Restarting infrastructure will require training survivors to fill positions.
Easy natural resources are depleted. Can a post civbuster society drill down 5 miles for oil? No feedstock for plastics. Can they mine low grade iron and coal for steel in odd places? Can they farm with all the invasive weeds growing everywhere? If we loose civilation, can it be restarted?
Torange – at 18:41 “If we loose civilation, can it be restarted? “
Part of the answer depends on what you mean by civilization. If that is oil guzzling SUV’s, iron things, and people living in sky high buildings then there is one answer. If it is knowledge, morals, caring for and helping others, then you might get a different answer. I personally think that there was civilization long before oil wells, cars and TV’s. I am amazed as I read the 1905–1920 work of Einstein.
Civilization will go on for me and mine - if I can just keep the warlords away.
moeb – at 15:23
When I read this thread, I thought Wow, moeb has a long lost twin brother ;-)
yea but a rich “me” would fund a flu wiki retreat/kingdom ;-)
“seacoast – at 18:24 By the time they role up their sleeves, it will quite possibly be too late!”
Guess we should leave To-Do lists for the warlords;
1. Volunteer any “don’t tell the public” public payroll people to the Mortuary Reserve Corpse (sic) duty.
crfullmoon @ 21:01
There you go. Save us the hassle of rounding them up and putting their heads on pikes!
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