From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Financial Survival

24 November 2006

Klatu – at 18:42

Banks to ‘withstand’ flu pandemic

BBC News

Friday, 24 November 2006, 13:21 GMT

“UK banks could maintain core services during a flu pandemic despite extensive disruption to business, a major contingency exercise has revealed.

About 70 businesses took part in a six-week test, designed to see how the financial system would cope in the event of a severe flu outbreak. It raised concerns about how consumers would get access to cash and how firms could restore operations afterwards. - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/yluf5w

25 November 2006

bumping for bill – at 02:01
Klatu – at 04:30

Peramivir

Forbes.com

10.12.05

“Medical Technology Stock Letter, recommends buying shares of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, the Birmingham, Ala.-based developer of small-molecule drugs.

BioCryst (nasdaq: BCRX - news - people ) shares have surged 50% from their low on Friday to their close on Tuesday, at a 52-week closing high of $15.04. The reason for the enthusiasm: BioCryst’s influenza neuraminidase inhibitor drug candidate, peramivir, received prominent and positive mention in a New York Times article about how some discarded drug candidates may have new possibilities in treating the H5N1 avian influenza… Peramivir was mentioned as one of the most promising drugs.

‘Three years ago, peramivir failed a Phase III drug trial due to poor bioavailability (the ability of the drug to be absorbed into the bloodstream) in its pill form. BioCryst is now developing an injectable version of the drug, and peramivir has shown some success in fighting avian flu in pre-clinical testing involving cell cultures and in animals.” - excerpt

Nov 24/06/, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Closed $11.89

http://tinyurl.com/75fh5

Klatu – at 12:00

Cash could run out in flu pandemic as ATMs go unstocked, warns watchdog

Ft.com (UK)

November 25 2006 02:00

“Cash supplies could dry up at the peak of a flu pandemic in parts of the country as bank branches close and leave automated teller machines unstocked, the City watchdog has warned.

The Financial Services Authority said the vulnerability of the cash supply system was a serious weakness that the government, regulators and industry needed to address. Its comments came as the watchdog revealed the preliminary conclusions of a six-week exercise designed to simulate the impact of a flu pandemic on the financial services sector.”

link

crfullmoon – at 15:31

(Anyone who hasn’t looked at these older pages yet, there’s alot of material here;

http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n=Issues.Economic

and in the Main Wiki Index around Finance )

Klatu – at 15:50

- – at 15:31 wrote:

“Anyone who hasn’t looked at these older pages yet, there’s alot of material here;”


Thanks, 8-O

crfullmoon – at 18:56

I never know who’s looking or lurking. :-)

Good stuff from the forum should get added to the Main Wiki pages, and, indexed. (And, shown to others.) Did you see the “Community Currency” ideas?

If pandemic is as bad as I fear, (as in, anything worse than their “1968-lite hopes” means, “we’re screwed”). Finances may not be as important as safety, food, health, ect, at first, but,

I have no debt now, did not spend $ on vacation this year, and still need to get invested money out of “virtual” and back where I can touch it, preferably in forms that won’t devalue…Blah!

=:-/

27 November 2006

Gort – at 09:18

Bird flu may pose greater risk to financial markets than terrorism - analysts

11.27.2006, 08:35 AM

LONDON (AFX) - Bird flu may pose a statistically greater risk to financial markets than terrorism, according to analysis conducted by Thomson Corp unit Thomson Financial.

Financial concerns make up the bulk of risk facing the sector at just over 66 pct, while tensions in the Middle East account for a little below 33 pct. Terrorism has a ‘statistically insignificant impact’ and while a bird flu pandemic is clearly an issue, its specific impact ‘remains to be quantified’, the authors of the analysis claim.

The findings were released as Thomson launched its first sector-based risk indicator for the general financial sector. Thomson is also forming a partnership with the World Economic Forum to develop predictive market contracts on the probability and potential impact of non-financial risks on a global scale. “

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2006/11/27/afx3205166.html

Gort – at 16:49

Bird flu drives shares of biotech up, poultry down

Korea Hearld

Nov 27/06

“Shares of biotech companies firmed while poultry-related stocks continued their downward slide yesterday as investors made their bets on the outcome of the latest bird flu outbreak in the country. Daehan New Pharm Co., which manufactures veterinary drugs and vaccines, jumped to its daily limit of 15 percent for a third consecutive session yesterday. “

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/

28 November 2006

The Doctor – at 02:04

While some might regard it as crass, ensuring your personal financial survival during and after the pandemic is a really important issue; granted, not nearly important as staying alive. Nonetheless, it is pretty easy to make some good guesses how the stock markets will behave in the run up the WHO Alert Phase 6 and during the actual pandemic. We can also speculate on what buying and selling will be like during the emergency, much of it conducted by barter. There will be a place for cash and gold and silver coins.

I have written about these issues in an essay entitled Pandemic Economics that can be downloaded from here at http://tinyurl.com/y52qu8 on The Bird Flu Manual website. All the above subjects plus my plan for a personal defensive investment strategy for those of you who have managed to put a little nest egg away for your retirement and would like to see it preserved are found in this essay. I hope you find it useful.

Best regards,

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP – at 11:52

Bump

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:08

Doctor, thanks so much for bumping this….I’d missed it first go-round. I’ll take a look at the material you’ve presented - it IS crucial, in my opinion, to stay afloat financially, during a pandemic (assuming there’s something to buy) as well as afterward — long afterward. It will be hard for most people to do, but it is one of the essential “preps” as far as I’m concerned.

Thanks!

PS: Have you posted over at the new forum site? It’s really easy, if you haven’t given it a try already. I’m MORE comfortable here, but eventaully I’ll say that about that location too, I’m sure.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:10

PPS: I’m enjoying your BF Manual book I bought from Amazon!

Gort – at 12:36

Dr. Wooodson provides sound financial advice - not something one associates with the healing arts. Those interested in plunging a little futher into to the subjuect, the following information should help. I found thought provoking.

An Investors Guide to Avian Flu

Bank of Montreal (Canada) 2005

http://www2.bmo.com/bmo/files/news%20release/4/1/Avian%20Flu.pdf

“Soaring death rates would puncture the housing bubble and create vast housing oversupply. Apartment owners would slash rates to try to replace deceased tenants. As prices of houses and condos fell, the many millions who had bought their properties with little or no money down would default, exacerbating the rate of price decline. Based on 1918 experience, the effect would be most severe in the major cities, where infection and death rates would be higher than in smaller centers.

Personal liberties and freedoms might be at risk as governments restrain the movement of people; civil liberties would also be jeopardized by ill-founded aversions to Asians everywhere.

Traumatized children could suffer mental and learning problems. Adults would as well, and all will mourn the loss of loved ones, neighbors and co-workers. “

People would stay closer to home, value family and friends, and basically ‘cocoon’ as we’ve seen so vividly in New York City.

- excerpts

Annon – at 12:42

$1 billion more needed for bird flu-World Bank

28 Nov 2006 17:06:54 GMT Source: Reuters

WASHINGTON, Nov 28 (Reuters) -“ As much as $1.3 billion more is needed to fight bird flu, with more than $500 million of that going to Africa, World Bank and U.N. experts said on Tuesday.

This is on top of the $1.9 billion pledged at a World Bank conference in Beijing last January, said World Bank Economic Adviser Olga Jonas, who will present her official estimates to a meeting of bird flu experts that begins next Wednesday in Bamako, Mali.

“We foresaw only a very small amount that would be needed in Africa,” Jonas said in an interview.

But since January, H5N1 avian influenza has spread out of Asia, across Europe and into Africa. Now more than 50 countries have battled the virus, which mostly affects birds but which has infected 258 people and killed 153 since 2003.

Among them are some of the poorest countries in Africa — Uganda, Niger, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso and Djibouti, as well as Egypt.

U.N. bird flu coordinator Dr. David Nabarro said the money pledged worldwide in January was being spent rapidly but said much more needs to be done to prepare for a pandemic, or to try to prevent one. - excerpt

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N28242069.htm

anonymous – at 18:15

I read something recently about how we are currently in the third longest bull stock market in history. The longest was in the 90s and the second longest was in the 1920s. (I might have mixed up the rankings.) Anyway, we know how each of those bull markets ended. I am very worried that if the stock market starts correcting early next year while the housing bubble keeps deflating and before long the pandemic starts too, we will be in a very bad way. That is going to suck big time.

The Doctor – at 19:53

To Gort – at 12:36

Thanks for your endorsement of my comments in Pandemic Economics. Yes, I know that doctors are educated as physicians not economists. While medical practice is my vocation, economics and investing has been one of my avocations for many years. The problem with most of the articles mentioned in this thread and published in general is that their focus is macroeconomic in focus or concern making a profit by investing in a particular stock that has a high tech answer to the coming pandemic.

There is no high tech answer to the pandemic in my opinion.

What just plain folks lucky enough to have been able to put a few pennies aside for their retirement need is sound advice on how they can protect their savings from destruction as a result of the pandemic. This is the advice provided in the essay Pandemic Economics and it is not the at all the same as one would obtain from their broker or investment advisor. It is unique in this regard. Anyone following this advice would have a pretty good chance of preserving their capital should we experience a severe bird flu pandemic or not. I realize that the opinion of an amateur like me is suspect. For this reason, each investor needs to evaluate the issue for him or herself and make their own assessment.

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

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