Sorry if this has been posted already, but I didn’t see it anywhere.
I am seeking comments on Niman’s report that a 9 year old boy in Quebec is being tested for H5N1. Has anyone seen this info posted elsewhere in the media? Is this one of the regions where it was detected in waterfowl? How far is PEI?
If htis child tests positive we have a problem in north america now.
I have seen it there.But no where else so far!
C. Difficile.
Google “Quebec” & “C.Difficile.”
“A hypervirulent strain of C. difficile was blamed for about 2,000 deaths in Quebec between 2003 and 2004. “
- or it could be MRSA
I think Occams Razor applies in this situation. Henry was informed this morning.
C. Difficile.
Google “Quebec” & “C.Difficile.”
“A hypervirulent strain of C. difficile was blamed for about 2,000 deaths in Quebec between 2003 and 2004. “
- or it could be MRSA
I think Occams Razor applies in this situation. Henry was informed this morning.
to 14:14 that seems reasonable. In either case, anyone with more media reports please post here. thanks.
Wednesday, Nov 29, 2006
(CP) - “The power of the Internet rumour mill slammed up against a hospital in Rimouski, Que., on Wednesday, leaving infection control specialists and pediatricians bewildered by claims they were treating a child gravely ill with H5N1 avian flu.
Dr. Patrick Dolce, the hospital’s head of microbiology, confirms there is no case of H5N1 flu in the hospital.
Dolce says the hospital doesn’t even have a pediatric patient suffering from any respiratory illness.
“This is totally untrue. There is no case of respiratory illness in any children right now in the hospital. No cases at all,” Dolce said.
He added that when he raised the rumours with a colleague, the infectious disease specialist on duty Wednesday, “she laughed at me.”
Several Internet websites on pandemic influenza reported rumours that North America had its first human “bird flu” case in an unlikely spot - Rimouski, a city of about 42,000 people on the St. Lawrence River north of Quebec City.
Hospital administrators, who were initially unaware of the rumours, took some perplexing calls. A concerned man identifying himself as a physician called from Italy to check out the reports.
Dolce says the rumours are entirely untrue. “
http://www.mytelus.com/news/article.do?pageID=canada_home&articleID=2467478
Internet rumours of a human bird flu case in Rimouski exasperate hospital http://tinyurl.com/ylo7lu
Canadian Press Published: Wednesday, November 29, 2006
(CP) - The power of the Internet rumour mill slammed up against a hospital in Rimouski, Que., on Wednesday, leaving infection control specialists and pediatricians bewildered by claims they were treating a child gravely ill with H5N1 avian flu.
Dr. Patrick Dolce, the hospital’s head of microbiology, confirms there is no case of H5N1 flu in the hospital.
Dolce says the hospital doesn’t even have a pediatric patient suffering from any respiratory illness.
“This is totally untrue. There is no case of respiratory illness in any children right now in the hospital. No cases at all,” Dolce said.
He added that when he raised the rumours with a colleague, the infectious disease specialist on duty Wednesday, “she laughed at me.”
MORE….
© The Canadian Press 2006
Whoops…sorry for the duplicate!
just hope this isn’t a case of ‘hurry along, nothing to see here’… ;-o
You and me to!!:)
Thanks everybody. whew! I like my chicken too much to see things start to spiral downhill…
bird-dog — 29 November 2006, 14:23 wrote:
Whoops…sorry for the duplicate! just hope this isn’t a case of ‘hurry along, nothing to see here’… ;-o
Great minds think alike.
Maybe there aren’t any sick kids with asthma, pneumonia, bronchitis, whooping cough, or any number of other respiratory ailments that could conceivably require inpatient treatment currently admitted, but I find that really hard to believe.
Course, I also found it hard to believe their was a kid sick with H5N1, too.
There have been multiple instances of U.S. hospitals testing for H5N1 in recent months. We here just haven’t had an insider to give us the scoop at the time.
Maybe not such a bad thing, either.
I agree, Edna Mode- I can beleive there was a false report of a child with H5N1 in a Canadian Hospital. I find it very hard to beleive there is not a single pediatric patient with respritory problems in a Canadian hopspital in Novemeber. Which then causes me to wonder what is going on…..
It certainly shows that there must be a lot of people READING the flu sites. :)
Snowhound1 — 29 November 2006, 14:43 wrote:
It certainly shows that there must be a lot of people READING the flu sites. :)
It keeps the civil servants on their toes.
Snowhound1 — 29 November 2006, 14:43
gharris emailed the Globe and Mail, a Canadian newspaper, and asked about the rumor. They probably called the hospital.
Track it back. http://tinyurl.com/yg8sg3
Anon-YYZ This is the one that made me think that others were watching the flu sites. :)
14:19 Hospital administrators, who were initially unaware of the rumours, took some perplexing calls. A concerned man identifying himself as a physician called from Italy to check out the reports.
Best I can figure it all started with Mary in Hawaii’s anonymous source that she quoted on the new Wiki Forum’s rumor thread, and it spread like wildfire from there. That would be my guess, since that’s the first report I can find. This brings several things to my mind, at least. The Flu Wiki sure has a global influence that is stunning in its consequences for good or ill. Secondly, I am very neutral in my opinon of Niman, but he is very vague on his site about his “several independent sources”. It knocks him down several notches in my regard because I have to wonder if his “several independent sources” are the various bird flu sites that took Mary’s rumor and ran with it. I don’t know…just thinking aloud.
Any word from the Canadian health or government in response to this rumour?
Argyll.
Nova? — 29 November 2006, 15:25 wrote:
“Best I can figure it all started with Mary in Hawaii’s anonymous source that she quoted on the new Wiki Forum’s rumor thread, and it spread like wildfire from there.”
Avianflutalk.com’s press release re: Quebec today was picked by Google earlier today. They do that on occasion to pump up the volume on their site.
Well, if it was a plant to see if we flubies have our antennas out, TPRB got their answer, and quickly I might add.
Avianflutalk.com’s press release re: Quebec and picked-up by Google earlier today.
http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=189489&tsource=3
Alas, I will never take Niman seriously again. I really was trying to stay neutral in my opinion…
Nova—
I would encourage you to still keep an open mind on Niman. While he can be tempted into hysteria a little early, he has contributed much over the years to the panflu community. His grasp of the science and his close following of all of the bird flu news has been and will continue to be invaluable.
Having said that—of course, that doesn’t mean to automatically believe anything he says, just don’t go the other way either and immediately discount him out of hand over his occassional pollyannish posts. One of these days, remember, he will be right when he says “it is beginning.”
Niman partly explained his sources on this thread at CE:
Sources The first source was an unsolcited phone call on Monday morning (followed by e-mail) and appears to be a misreprentation both of who the caller was as well as at least some, if not all of the information. I am tracing down the call and e-mail.
The second source was backdoor corroboration through Canada on Tuesday.
The third source was posted at FW late last night and matched in part the original phone call. The phone call had much more detail, which has not been disclosed (or confirmed).
I did the commentary after the story had appeared here, on FW, and FT (and it sounds like other internet sites also).
All in all, I think it’s good news all around. Presented as rumor, dispelled as rumor; fast and with a lot of coordination. The internets are a wonderful thing, no?
Wolf:
“The internets are a wonderful thing…”.
Ah, ah, ah no politics, remember? :-)
Newsie? — 29 November 2006, 19:54
;)
Good news if we believe the hospital spokesperson. Would you release the info? Maybe the testing isn’t complete…Just something to think about.
They wouldn’t want to interupt the “Holiday shopping season”. Most retailers make their whole year’s profit over the next 3 weeks. I would guess if this testing were going on, they wouldn’t breath a word just yet.
I wish people would not jump on Niman or anyone else about this. This was apparently a false alarm. No harm done. If we jump on people who pass along the rumors/information that they hear, they might think twice before passing along stuff in the future. In my opinion, we need to hear the rumors as they pop up. There is plenty of time to look into the details and verify reports later. Yes, we need to get independent verification ASAP but I think it’s going to be the rumors that will save people when the pandemic first starts.
Bottom line - Henry is a better scientist than a cub reporter.
And the government might try to stop the spread with tamiflu. It just might buy them the 3 weeks they need. I believe that the first few cases may be just like this… a person or two popping up in a variety of hospitals, with testing taking a week or so to get results, masked by tamiflu. Until the second or third small wave of just a few more people and then it begins.
Meanwhile Niman is now saying he may have been the victim of a hoax.
Apparently he’s pulled his original posting. I’ve seen no credible reports that the nine year old boy in question even exists, never mind that he’s being tested for H5N1. Personally I think this one is a rumour that didn’t pan out.
Actually, Niman is now saying this:
Quote from Flutrackers thread.. http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=13586
“I started a new thread with a fuller report on the situation in Canada, with the words “right now” highlighted, because this story is quite fluid. I was curious to see if the denials would have a qualifier, and since they do, I took the liberty of highlighting it.
Both of my sources stand by their stories. The first source is concerned about some sort of set-up, which has many variations. He was tied up all day and when I couldn’t confirm via a number of media, I was concerned that I had actually spoke to someone other than who I thought I was talking to on Monday.
However, I have since established contact and his comments to me on Monday reflected his understanding of the situation at that time. There was more information than posted, and the additional information will remain closely held until confirmed.
Similarly, my second source has confirmed that he received a corroboration of a young pneumonia case.
Today, I put up a “could not confirm” post at Recombinomics, to tone down the interest level, until more facts are known.”
April at 20:37: You’re right.
Who knows, maybe it was a set-up to discredit all these forums so we won’t be taken as seriously. It’s sure been a roller coaster day.
(But how could someone impersonate a person who you are supposed to know via a phone call? Via e-mail or snail mail, yes, but a phone call? I just don’t get it.)
bluesfan at 21:42: Thanks for the link. That helps clarify a little. I think. Yikes, what a tightrope we’re walking!
bluesfan — 29 November 2006, 21:42
This gets stranger every minute. Your post and quotes at 21:42 is earlier than Niman’s post on flutrackers at 10:07 p.m.
There was also pixie’s post at the new fluwikie forum at 9:37 p.m.
Are these servers in different time zones.
Flu Trackers is an hour ahead of us.
Pogge 23:08 (and ANON-YYZ) Well at least the time zone thing was easily clarified/verified! Thanks pogge, sure don’t need any further strange ‘mysteries’ added into this mix. :-)
November 29
Canadian Press.
“Niman, who lives in Pittsburgh, wrote that several independent sources were reporting a child in hospital in Rimouski was sick with H5N1 disease.
Word of the rumour was e-mailed to several news organizations in Quebec, though not, it would appear, by Niman.
Suddenly the Rimouski hospital was getting calls from a man identifying himself as a physician from Italy and from news organizations. “We had a call from the New York Times,” said an amazed Dolce.
In an interview, Niman said he heard the rumour from two independent sources he trusted. Later, he called back to say he believed he might have been the victim of a hoax, saying the first call he took appeared to be from someone impersonating a person he knew.
‘’‘The bloggers who write the respected public health website Effect Measure were also approached with the rumour, but chose not to run with it.
One of the anonymous bloggers - they go by the name Revere - said the decision was based on years of experience in public health.’‘’
“The first thing you learn to do is verify the diagnosis,” the blogger said from Boston. (The Reveres take their name from Paul Revere.)
The amplification of rumour speaks to the concern that exists in the blogosphere, where untold numbers of people all over the world scan blogs and news websites looking for the latest on H5N1.
“There are people who follow this obsessively . . . who have a special sensitivity about the threat of a pandemic starting,” Revere said.
http://agonist.org/20061129/internet_rumours_of_bird_flu_case_in_rimouski_quebec_are_totally_untrue
- excerpt
Seriously though, if this situation was generated by a hoax, those who perpetrated such a thoughtless act should be called out for it. IF it is even possible to determine who would do such a thoughtless act. Sheesh.
bluesfan — 29 November 2006, 21:42
bluesfan — 29 November 2006, 23:34
I read the post on the link you provided at 21:42 and I thought Niman was saying at 10:07 p.m. on flutrackers that it wasn’t a hoax after all, or that his contacts were not impersonated.
It can’t be right both ways. Some one is doing damage control.
We will just have to wait a few days and see.
There was a lot of buzz about this at the hospital where I work . . .
Well, I emailed my original source this evening after all this flap, and he still stands by what he said. Gave me a few more details (not many)but he said he’d been told about this case by 3 different independent sources that he knew and trusted before he told me. And he only told me so that I could convince my (adult)kids to prepare, not to post as rumor on FW. That was my decision. As it stands now it is still an unconfirmed rumor, but in his opinion it may well be true…despite the vehement denials. So, all we can do is wait and see…just like we’ve been doing. But I think if any of you all really trusted tptb to tell the truth, you wouldn’t be reading and posting on FW. In which case, all we’ve really got are rumors.
Hey, Mary in Hawaii, as I have said (and said and said - stuck record) we really appreciate that you made the decision to pass this on to us all.
as has also been mentioned, the ‘denial’ was so over the top …
But, what it did show is the ‘power’ of the internet and getting some answers to some questions can be done.
You go girl ;-)
Mary in Hawaii? — 30 November 2006, 02:42 wrote:
“Well, I emailed my original source this evening after all this flap, and ‘’‘he still stands by what he said. “
“Curiouser and curiouser!” Cried Alice (she was so much surprised, that for the moment she quite forgot how to speak good English).
Oh, dear! What nonsense I’m talking!”
Remember, just a little while ago, it was said the goverment was going to put out some false info and see if the media picked up on it. Could this be it?
I doubt if the Canadian government would do that.
DebP- I doubt if the Canadian government would do that.
DEbP, you could be right. May this was a test, to see how the country would respond. Interesting though, the forums were all over it, the rest of the country went about their business. I feel better, when the first case comes out, we will have plenty of time to do last minute preps, the rest of the country still will do nothing. LOL
geeze, now how did that happen? cottontop @ 6:32
I have a gut feeling that this just isn’t a rumor. Don’t ask me why, I have no idea. Time will tell unless we never hear the truth. Look at all the cover ups everywhere else. Why would this be any different? They don’t want to alarm North America. They are not ready to deal with this.
Birdie Kate 09:03
I am inclined to agree. I smell a rat. It will all come out in the wash, but I too believe that this is not just a rumor.
Agreed Ruth@7:20. I think there’s enough of a following on this wiki site to flush out a rumor quick and chances are we here will know sooner than the rest of the everyday-folks.
As for whether or not this particular story doesn’t end here, I tend not to think so. But the thing that concerns me a little is that Mary is definitely trustworthy IMHO, and even after the backlash some people aimed at her, she came out and said that her sources were standing by their story, and so was she. That definitely makes me think there really could be something still going on.
Oooops, my English teacher cringes at my first sentence of second paragraph. Meant to say in that one sentence that basically I thought the hospital’s reaction confirmed that this was just a rumor.
Why couldn’t I type that in the first place???
I just think that a hospital would not confirm a patient’s diagnosis especially if the test results were pending. Even then, the Canadian government might still try to throw a tamiflu blanket on this one. They have nothing to loose. Hospitals are not obligated by law to disclose any info about any patient to anyone but the patient and maybe the health department who also is not required to report to the public. I’m not discounting Mary’s rumor yet. She’s been on for a while and has not disappeared. Time will tell..
Mary, for what it’s worth, I think you handled this right - you heard something from someone you know, you passed on the information but correctly labeled it as a rumouor and explained how you came by the information. I don’t see how anyone can fault you for what you did, although we know there are those who will find fault with anything. I’d much rather hear the rumour - and be told it is a rumour - so that I might do whatever I can do to try to confirm it - than not to know anything at all.
About the situation in general - I go back and forth on what I think. Instinctively, when the denial came out, I felt some relief - took a few seconds to remember just what I think what TPTB pass out as information. I do think that a situation like this is going to be relatively inevitable, and I’m sure the first response will be denial. That doesn’t mean that in this case the denial is anything other than the truth.
I dont think ANY hospitals in Canada or US are testing for H5N1, are they? I think they may test for seasonal flu A or B - but doubt if they wd even be thinking of H5N1 here yet!! The denial of a child with pneumo by Rimouski hospital just seems so vehement that it stinks IMO!! I wonder if a) the kid possibly from Rimouski area never was admitted to the Rimouski hospital i.e. Montreal has a great/famous Children’s Hospital, he might have been sent there from ER?? - or b)the kid’s official dx is something else, ie trauma injuries and the respiratory discovery incidental? Such speculation gives a whole new meaning to the term ‘spin doctor’??!! :-))
Aren`t the guidelines something along the line of; If there`s no dead/sick birds, then no need to test for H5N1? Stupid!
Mary, I absolutely agree with Clawdia’s comments.
When I first read the rumour my first reaction was to wait and see. However, I did think it would be double bad luck for Canada if it were true, thinking back to Canada’s experience with SARS and with no HP H5N1 confirmed there in birds I’d have been looking for what the connection was between China, SE Asia etc and Canada (apart from the obvious air travel)and why such an incident would have happened to Canada twice!
cottontop? — 30 November 2006, 06:32 wrote:
I doubt if the Canadian government would do that.
Ruth? — 30 November 2006, 07:20
DEbP, you could be right. May this was a test, to see how the country would respond.
Cottontop, your are correct the Canadian government would not be involved and here is why.
Canada has a minority government. That means the political situation is precarious, not unlike that currently in the U.S. following mid-term elections.
The current prime minister/president, P.M. Stephen Harper would have his own section in the DSM(IV) if he pulled an internet prank involving a false H5N1 story - it would be political suicide.
The priority on the current Canadian political agenda is Gay marriages and Canadian troops Afganistan. Harper and Bush share very similar political viewpoints. The current governemt is expected to call a new election this Spring.
There is a reason for this - but it has nothing to do with Canada.
If I wanted to start a rumour that might take hold, and do some damage, I would pick a location where English is not the first language, like Rimouski, Quebec. My 2-cents.
The problem with the dead bird theory is that we may get the flu here without the dead birds. Don’t they (TPTB) get it. If the mutation takes place on an overseas flight, then the person is hospitalized here in North America, there may not be dead birds. The thought process is all wrong…and it could cost people their lives.
What are the chances that Mary and Niman would post such a rumor almost at the same time? Could one of their sources include the other? Why not just say so?
Ruth? — 30 November 2006, 15:46 wrote:
“The problem with the dead bird theory is that we may get the flu here without the dead birds. If the mutation takes place on an overseas flight, then the person is hospitalized here in North America, there may not be dead birds.”
Ruth you make a valid point, but Rimouski, Quebec does not have an international airport - my neck of the woods.
“Rimouski is a Canadian city (ville) on the western part of Gaspé Peninsula in eastern Quebec, located on the south shore of the Saint Lawrence River at the mouth of the Rimouski River. This town, with a population of 41,549 in 2001, offers several tourist attractions. “
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rimouski,_Quebec
I did what I could to mitigate the damage, but sometimes a guy needs to sleep. Merci Beaucoup.
Harper is pretty secure!! The ‘Nation within a Nation’ gambit will work very well for him in the coming election!
The Canadian Govt is just as likely as any other govt to ‘pull the wool’ over the eyes of anybody watching - the damage from SARS to tourism in the country is legendary - no govt wd want that again on their watch!
Not many doctors here in Canada take H5N1 seriously - mine says she wont worry til it hits the newspapers!
I think there are definitely ‘legs’ to this rumour and I am fascinated to see what happens.
lohrewok — 30 November 2006, 16:31
Coincidence? Don’t know.
Niman said he had 3 sources, one of which was he saw it at fluwikie. Maryinhawaii said her friend told her he had 3 sources. Revere at Effect Measure received rumors from unidentified source(2) as quoted by Helen Branswell in news story. I posted my speculation that the rumor is false in the new forum
Notice that Niman flip-flopped between ‘victim of a hoax’ as quoted by Helen Branswell, but later changed the story to my sources stand by the story. Maryinhawaii also said her friend’s sources stood by the story.
Could Mary’s friend’s sources (3 not 2) be the same as Niman’s? Could Mary’s friend be Niman or associate of Niman?
Regardless, I think the rumor was made up for a commercial benefit.
Anon-YYZ,
Don’t you ever stop the personal attacks? Is it possible that you’ll eventually come to a place where you want to contribute something, rather than your continual, directed vitriol against Niman?
Please go and study. Return with better information. You’ll be a better person.
Gulf coast mama, I am from Nova Scotia, and P.E.I is off the northern coast of N.S. It is quite far from Quebec. I do know that P.E.I some months ago, was found to have infected fowl-h5n1. I am pretty sure it is everywhere, and tptb, are not saying a word.
Friday, December 01, 2006
“Given the unprecedented human lethality of H5N1, the mutant strain of avian influenza spreading out of Asia, efforts have focused on mediating the impact of the next pandemic, but where did this virus come from in the first place?
Bird flu has gone from an exceedingly rare disease in poultry to one that now pops up every year. The number of serious outbreaks in the last few years has far exceeded the total number of outbreaks recorded for the entire 20th century.
The emergence of H5N1 has been blamed on free-ranging flocks and wild birds, but people have kept chickens in their back yards for thousands of years, and birds have been migrating for millions. Bird flu has been around forever — what turned bird flu into a killer?
A big shift in the ecology of avian influenza has been the intensification of the global poultry sec tor. Over the last few decades, meat and egg consumption has exploded in the developing world, leading to industrial-scale commercial chicken farming, which could be considered the “perfect storm” environment for the emergence and spread of new superstrains of influenza.
China, the world’s biggest poultry producer, is increasingly following the Western model of cram ming tens of thousands of animals into filthy football field-sized sheds to lie beak-to-beak in their own waste, a veritable breeding ground for disease. Evolutionary biologists believe that these sorts of condi tions may be the key to the emer gence of hypervirulent, so-called “predator-like” viruses such as H5N1. This may explain the emer gence of the 1918 flu virus out of the trenches in World War I. From the virus’ point of view, these same trench warfare conditions exist today in every industrial chicken and egg operation: confined, crowded, stressed, but by the billions, not just millions.
The United Nations specifically calls on governments to fight what it calls “factory farming.” -excerpt
http://www.nj.com/news/times/regional/index.ssf?/base/news-7/11649496735550.xml&coll=5
* NS1 thanks for the input and the open mind.
NS1, I think ANON-XYZ has another ID on a different forum and has the same obsessive, negative focus on Niman; very unproductive and unhelpful.
ANON-XYZ, my mom once told me, “If you don’t have anything nice to say about someone, then don’t say anything at all.” I think those are very wise words and should apply here.
NS1 — 01 December 2006, 05:01
Don’t you ever stop the personal attacks?
With the colorful adjectives that you used,I think you just demonstrated what you said I was doing.
If you disagree with my analysis, you can always post an arugment. When one has no point, one has to attack personality, credibility etc.
Helen Branswell wrote a story about Niman involved in the rumor. Claiming that he was a victim of a impersonation (well, we have seen that behavior on this forum) thereby saying that he doubted the rumor, then later on changed his position to trusting the rumor with more information that cannot be disclosed.
Tink? — 01 December 2006, 10:01
In the new forum, I post under the handle anon.yyz to make it easier to type. You are misleading people about impersonation. The few instances where impersonation happened on this forum when Niman’s supporter had no argument and had to resort to disruptive tactics.
Using adjectives, with no arguments, to attack me does not help your credibility. You are welcome to bring up points to the discussion.
Snowy Tree - I agree with you!! I used to spend vacations on Miscou Island in the Baie of Chaleur - not ‘very’ far from Gaspe/Matane (as the crow flies!! :-)) - loads of migrating birds etc. I think it is ENTIRELY plausible that H5N1 is endemic in wild birds on that migratory path. Our hunters,small flock poultry farmers, etc are JUST as susceptible to infection as any third world country! I think the PEI story last summer was a big snafu and that there is a LOT going on down there! I think TPTB will do anything to protect the economy, including lying to the people or refusing to investigate properly. I think it is entirely possible that a child could have picked up infection, from hunter in the family or contact with infected pets - the vehemence of the denials make me think ‘the lady (TPTB) doth protest too much’!
gharris? — 01 December 2006, 11:54 wrote:
Time will tell, so will C. Difficle and MRSA.
Last Updated: Saturday, November 18, 2006
CBC News
“Two days after announcing that an outbreak of C. difficile was under control, a hospital in Quebec has reported a new death from the stubborn infection.
St. Hyacinthe’s Honoré Mercier hospital said on Friday that a 12th person has died from the bacteria. Thirty-one patients at the hospital have been infected with Clostridium difficile in the last two months.”
Four patients remain under observation.”
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2006/11/18/difficile-outbreak.html
NS1 — 01 December 2006, 05:01
Since you consistently attack me to defend Niman, are you interested in putting your money where your mouth is and buy out Gaudia Ray’s stake in Recombinomics?
Point # 12 in Post #27 11–25–2006, 12:26 PM in this post:
I read this post as an advertisement to sell the stake. I think he’s bailing out. What do you think?
I think that’s a discussion that should take place on Current Events. When you start speculating about GR’s motives you’re getting pretty far afield. People on this board don’t have the context on that discussion.
This discussion is out of hand. The topic is “TestingBoyForH5N1 in Quebec”. Can we please get back on topic? This divergence is boring and disrespectful of others looking for discussion on this topic. Thank you.
pogge — 01 December 2006, 13:03 \” People on this board don’t have the context on that discussion.\”
I think Occams razor applies here.
Folks, there were lessons learned here all around. Every flu board is having a discussion about this, of varying intensity.
It’s important to indentify rumors as such. That’s why we have a rumors thread. At this time, the only rational conclusion is that there’s no demonstrated H5N1 in Canada.
Bringing up old animosities and arguments is not especially enlightening nor is it particularly interesting.
Let’s move on.
anonyyz,
I have no interest in Niman’s business operations, only in his studies. Thank you for the offer.
Children’s hospital can’t keep up with flu like cases Montreal Dec. 1
Montreal children’s and Justine hospitals are getting record numbers of children-up to 300 a day- with flu-like symptoms leading to ER’S that can’t keep up,officials warned on Friday.
Doctors urged parents to stay calm and “don’t become verbally abusive”.
“If your child is having breathing difficulties or seizures, you will not wait.”
“The system is stretched to the limit”.
Is this the same area in Quebec?
Please google title if you would like more info.
Yikes what happened? Did I cause that side scroll?
I’m not really sure how I even did it.
Better learn though.
it’s a space before a line. I’ll fix ;-)
side scoll
fixed, I hope!;-)
Thanks Dem! Pneumonia bug hitting Downtown Eastside hard Dec.1 Vancouver. People living on the Downtown Eastside are getting hit especially hard by a nasty pneumonia bug that has already claimed 3 lives.The surprising thing is the people who did die weren’t elderly they were men in their 30′s and 40′s.Ya know the drill, google title.
Witness here is the link http://tinyurl.com/y5qrhc
East and West
witness? — 01 December 2006, 21:18
As far as I can tell Rimouski, Que is approximately 450 miles north east of Montreal but the thing that they have in common is the St. Lawrence River which connects both areas.
The headline in the Quebec news story may easily be misunderstood.
These stories belong to the News thread more so than to this thread because
a)they are not about H5N1 and
b)for Quebec, it’s not even flu, its a lot of RSV, and heightened surveillance of ILI (influenza like illnesses).
I am not sure about Quebec. At least in Ontario, schools have asked parents to keep kids at home and report detail symptoms of any ILI. As well, all of Canada has a new guideline of prescribing Tamiflu or Relenza as antivirals of choice for seasonal flu.
We should not be alarmed even if Tamiflu is prescribed for seasonal flu.
In the article first referenced by
witness? — 01 December 2006, 21:18
‘’Chalut and others dismissed the notion that longer wait times in emergency may be linked to pressure tactics by the specialists, who are entangled in a labour dispute with the province.
It is not related to any tactics but to the influx of patients and families coming in to see us, Chalut said.
There are no influenza cases in Quebec yet, Dr. Terry Tannenbaum of the Montreal public health department, confirmed Friday.’‘
One thing is notable. It doesn’t take a lot to overwhelm the health care system. As well, most parents will swarm the hospital if the kids are sick.
For those interested in statistics:
There has been a sudden increase in RSV last week across Canada. Coincidentally, we also have sudden change in weather.
Canadian Fluwatch week 47 Nov 19–25th
Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), which is the most common cause of lower respiratory tract illness in young children, is one of the respiratory viruses causing ILI in the community. Note that over the last several weeks, the percent positive for RSV detections has increased significantly from 4.8% in week 44 to 17.4% in week 47.
So let me make sure I understand this. In Vancouver, intensive care beds are full and 3 men have died of pneumonia. They were not elderly, they were men in their 30s and 40s
Pneumonia bug hitting Downtown Eastside hard - Vancouver?
And in Montreal
“Montreal Children’s and Ste. Justine hospitals are getting record numbers of children – up to 300 a day – with flu-like symptoms leading to bloated ERs that can’t keep up, officials warned Friday.
An influx of daily patients during the past two weeks has taxed resources to the limit at both hospitals, officials said. Expect 15-hour delays for non-emergencies, said pediatrician Dominic Chalut, head of medical emergency at the Children’‘s. A similar overflow is causing a 15-hour delay at Ste. Justine. Doctors urged parents to stay calm and “don’t become verbally abusive. “If your child is having breathing difficulties or seizures, you will not wait,” Chalut said. Emergency room officials are asking parents to call Info-Santé CLSC for the nearest available clinic rather than just showing up at ER.” Children’s hospital can’t keep up with flu like cases - Quebec Yet we are told we don’t have to worry about the rumor of a nine year old with pneumonia being treated for bird flu at a hospital in Rimouski which is only three hours away from Montreal because: “This is totally untrue. There is no case of respiratory illness in any children right now in the hospital. No cases at all,” said Dr. Patrick Dolce, head of microbiology for the hospital in Rimouski, called the Centre de sante et services sociaux de Rimouski-Neigette.”
Canadian Press: HELEN BRANSWELL
http://www.cbc.ca/cp/health/061129/x112921A.html
Huh.
Sorry about that. I tried to copy & paste from word and the formatting got mangled. The quotes were from the articles cited above in NS1′s post above.
The post should have read:
So let me make sure I understand this. In Vancouver, intensive care beds are full and 3 men have died of pneumonia. They were not elderly, they were men in their 30s and 40s. -source: Pneumonia bug hitting Downtown Eastside hard - Vancouver link is above in NS1′s post.
And in Montreal: “Monreal Children’s and Ste. Justine hospitals are getting record numbers of children - up to 300 a day - with flu-like symptoms leading to bloated ERs that can’t keep up, officials warned Friday. An influx of daily patients during the past two weeks has taxed resources to the limit at both hospitals, officials said. Expect 15-hour delays for non-emergencies, said pediatrician Dominic Chalut, head of medical emergency at the Children’s. A similar overflow is causing a 15-hour delay at Ste. Justine. Doctors urged parents to stay calm and ‘don’t become verbally abusive. If your child is having breathing difficulties or seizures, you will not wait,’ Chalut said. Emergency room officials are asking parents to call Info-Sante CLSC for the nearest available clinic rather than just showing up at ER.” -Source: Children’s hospital can’t keep up with flu-like cases - Quebec link is above in NS1′s post.
Yet we are told we don’t have to worry about the rumor of a nine year-old with pneumonia being treated for bird flu at a hospital in Rimouski - which is only three hours away from Montreal - because: “This is totally untrue. There is no case of respiratory illness in any children right now in the hospital. No cases at all,” said Dr. Patrick Dolce, head of microbiology for the hospital in Rimouski, called the Centre de sante et services sociaux de Rimouski-Neigette.” -Source: Helen Branswell article http://www.cbc.ca/cp/health/061129/x112921A.html
Huh. :o
Lemming-free zone? — 02 December 2006, 02:24
From news article:
‘’An unusual peak in winter colds has driven admissions to the intensive care unit up by 50 per cent and into the general ward by 15 per cent, Chalut said.
Fortunately, it’s not the seasonal influenza making an early appearance half-way through the vaccine campaign, physicians said.
These illnesses are being caused by other viruses that circulate during winter – parainfluenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). “We usually see a peak in winter but not that early,” Chalut said. “These are the numbers we usually see during the holidays.” ‘’
People don’t drive 3 hours to go to the ER. They are supposed to go to see a doctor, but at night when doctors’ offices are closed, they go to ER or the clinic.
Perhaps some one with ulterior motives took advantage of the RSV outbreak with “breathing difficulties” and turned it into a bird flu story. If the Rimouski H5N1 case existed, do you think they can hide it? The parents in Montreal became verbally abusive, ‘just’ for their kids infected with RSV and it became a big story in the MSM.
As for Vancouver, they also had a terrible and unusual weather for weeks. First it was heavy rain, causing boil water advisory, power outages. Then before they could recover, they are hit by a snow storm and cold weather that they are not quite equipped to handle. Under those circumstances, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised by how many people got sick or died of pneumonia.
The flu forums have been too agitated and we run the risk of going for a witch hunt. It seems that every thing looks like the beast lurking round the corner. This is the time that we need to remain rational while vigilant.
If you are looking for influenza cases, it’s in the link I provided for the Canadian Fluwatch, and Alberta had 499 tests with 24 cases of influenza A. Quebec had zero.
If anything, the flu boards should have got all excited about Alberta, North Carolina, Tennessee etc with flu outbreaks. That didn’t happen because no body ‘predicted’ that it will happen. So much for believing in predictions. If one believes in his own advertising, one becomes vulnerable to rumors.
It’s hard to believe that a hospital that is three hours away from two hospitals that are overrun with respiratory illnesses . . . has not one patient, not one at all. That is simply not believable, regardless of what kinds of flus are out there.
It’s hard to believe that a hospital that is three hours away from two hospitals that are overrun with respiratory illnesses . . . has not one patient, not one at all. That is simply not believable, regardless of what kinds of flus are out there.
maryrose
The term ILI (influenza-like illness) is common and appropriate and most cases are not flu at this time of year. There are a group of viruses, including rsv, parainfluenza, rhinoviruses and adenovirus that can all look similar.
Since they are not as contagious as flu, they are more likely to ‘stay in the area’. Not forever, but for the immediate period when they first show up. Within a week all area hospitals will likely see the same thing, but 50 miles can separate a week 1 from a week 2 showing.
Thanks, Dem. I understand now.
I think there is a big difference between a ‘hoax’ which is untrue information deliberate circulated for malicious reasons, and a ‘rumour’ which (may have some basis in truth and) is circulated for reasons of concern or in search of substantiation. I dont think the ‘Rimouski’ rumour was a hoax! Niman’s dissertation merely elucidated on a ‘possible’ case. I dont know why people get their knickers in a twist about it!! It was conjecture and that’s all!! I for one am glad of any explanations on any ‘possible’ permutations of this thing! Knowledge empowers! Time will tell what the truth is!
gharris? — 02 December 2006, 10:54
Niman told Helen Branswell that the email he got may have been impersonated. If that was true, Niman was at least alluding that it was a hoax. After Helen Branswell published the story, Niman said he managed to make contact with his source, and the source stood by the story, provided more information which cannot be disclosed. This means that Niman believed the story was true, but can’t confirm it.
Flutrackers has removed guest access to the original post that had the headline quoted by Helen Branswell’s article attributing to Niman and an internet forum. In the hours after the Helen Branswell’s story broke, a flutrackers moderator was beating up Maryinhawaii about why she would post such a rumor which caused Niman to put out a commentary. That was finger-pointing. I think they were looking for a fall guy. That didn’t work, so they had to stick to the rumor, and said now we should trust the rumor.
It’s OK to have a conjecture but it needs to be clearly identified as such. In putting out his commentary, Niman didn’t use the word rumor or anything like that. He called them independent reports which he subsequently flip-flopped between it’s an impersonation, no it wasn’t an impersonation . Since he’s advertising himself as an expert, he should be held to a higher standard than regular folks on flu boards.
Until such time as more published evidence suggest otherwise, this should be treated as unsubstantiated rumor. Since Niman is the only one who has additional information that he can’t disclose, based upon which he won’t say the rumor was false, Niman has now stuck his reputation on the rumor.
Since the CFR of even B2H H5N1 currently is so high, and the health effects AFAIK for survivors are not light - it took one year for the recent Shenzhen China survivor to recover with a great deal of health care provided, I just don’t believe you can possibly hide an human H5N1 case. There is another thread to discuss survivors. You can find more info there.
Niman went out of his way (saying he got additional information) not to deny there was an H5N1 patient after Helen Branswell published the hospital denial. If there is no patient found, dead or alive, after a reasonable period say 2 weeks, then we should question Niman’s integrity, if not his sanity.
You are right, time will tell what the truth is.
1Dec 2006 Anon XYZ writes “Could Mary’s friend’s sources (3 not 2) be the same as Niman’s? Could Mary’s friend be Niman or associate of Niman?
Regardless, I think the rumor was made up for a commercial benefit.”
I just saw this post. First, I do not know Dr Niman, I only read his website for information. The source of my rumour was one person, who wrote it as a heads up from a friend. Friend is a relative term: he is someone who posts regularly on Effect Measure and seems to have a good deal of credibility there, and he has previously emailed me personally to send me some of his preparedness lists at my request. I passed on his warning as a rumor in all good faith that it would be treated and investigated as such. However when all this flap began due to Niman also posting the same rumor, I emailed Niman (off a link in his post in the CE thread) and told him who my one and only source was, so that if one of his sources happened to be the same guy he could take that into account and proceed with all due caution. I did not receive any reply from Dr. Niman to my email. I hope this answers your conspiracy theory once and for all. No conspiracy here, but a possibility that two people who both reaD and sometimes post on the same effect measure blog might have received the same warning from a third party that also posts there? Very possible.
sorry, that post was from anon YYZ, not XYZ. Double masculine I guess. What’s the Z?
Mary in Hawaii? — 02 December 2006, 14:12
Thank you for clearing your name for us. I have stated previously that you posted the rumor in good faith (in new forum) so it was not a question so much of you as it was analyzing the possibilities. It turned out that after I posted my point here, I just saw a similar thought being shared by Tom DVM at Monotreme’s blog. So we independently had the same question in our minds, and there may be others.
You may wish to follow up on Tom DVM’s post-Thursday, November 30, 2006 - 08:54 AM
I think we could all move on if Dr. Niman didn’t say in his latest version that he has additional information that cannot be disclosed. In view of some concerns expressed here about correlation between Rimouski and additional news (Vancouver and Montreal and Toronto look out for dead birds), my sense is a noticeable portion of the community still believe the rumor is true i.e. there is a conspiracy to cover up, I feel that it is necessary to seek clarity.
MIH (YYZ are the call letters for Toronto Pearson Int’l airport - I think that is just a geographical hit about YYZ’s identity - dont sweat it!!)
I did not think this child in Rimouski had H2H H5N1 - if anything, I was thinking B2H.
Quebec hospitals frequently have sick kids flown/airlifted in from northern aboriginal outposts (without their parents).
Their parents are often ‘hunters and gatherers’ - frequently in contact with migratory wild birds, so it would not have been at all out of the question to suspect H5N1 if the child were airlifted in from up there! Completely reasonable in fact!!
The incidence of TB is high in those northern outposts also. Great place for all the little bugs to do their happy dance!!
My ‘northern outpost airlift’ theory could explain why Kruger on EM heard it first from fedex pilot via bush pilot (or vice versa?) - the bush pilot probably flew the kid to Rimouski?? So the pilot would certainly have known what was ‘suspected diagnosis’ - wonder if they instituted any protective measures for the pilot on the plane?
Canada Sue, YYZ, OG and others - we should be checking out what is going on at ‘Northern Affairs!
Just my tuppence worth ..
1. Mary in Hawaii - please stop feeling you have to defend yourself - you did everything absolutely correctly and we are all glad you decided to share this information with us - the outcome could have been so different and none of this discussion would have taken place!
2. When I saw the title of this thread, I was then disappointed - this implied it was not a rumour but ‘fact’ - the same as was done with the POSSIBLE cluster in Egypt - next thing we had a thread saying “New Cluster in Egypt”.
If we are concerned about the media (and TPTB) lambasting and discrediting forums such as these then we need to be a bit more ‘accurate’ in the naming of these types of threads!
Okay, that’s my tuppence spent - out of spare change now ;-)
AnnieB — 02 December 2006, 14:37
agreed
gharris? — 02 December 2006, 14:30
It is entirely possible for B2H to occur on Bonaventure Island with all these migratory birds. That doesn’t mean it happened yet. If one makes the prediction it has happened, one day one may turn out to be a prophet.
Ah, a kid with TB (respiratory symptoms) got airlifted by a bush plane pilot from Bonaventure Island which is a known sanctuary for migratory birds. The bush plane pilot had a drink and talked about a sick kid and about birds with a Fedex pilot friend who passed on the story who then miscommunicated to some one at Effect Measure who then emailed Mary, who then emailed Dr. Niman. Suddenly TB becomes B2H H5N1 rumor. So there is an alternative explanation.
That’s all OK, especially in the heat of the moment and you are trying to get the story out. What is not OK is after the story been denied, and one still insist there is truth to the story of an H5N1 patient, there is more information hidden from the public, but not disclose the alternative explanation of TB etc.
And now the flu board community is still looking for a hidden patient. Perhaps the patient flew 2000 miles from Rimouski to Vancouver. Not. Well, we need an air ambulance pilot to get drunk.
I still don’t believe you can hide a B2H H5N1 patient. Just look at what 2 pilots can do, and the hospital staff.
YYZ - I didnt say from Bonaventure - I said from ‘Northern Outpost’ - I think that if the kid presented with high fever,etc etc (whatever the current symptoms are) a nurse or intern (i.e. NOT a speicalist in epidemiology) in Northern Quebec could have wanted him tested/cared for at a city hospital - so had him airlifted out - Bonaventure may have been somebody else’s embellishment - however I DO think there is likely HP at Bonaventure and a LOT of other places in Canada - we just arent looking for it!
gharris? — 02 December 2006, 15:20
MIH quoted Bonaventure Island in her original post.
The story here is whether there was a 9 year old H5N1 patient.
You may want to open or reopen a thread to discuss bird surveillance.
First, let me say that I am not trying to “defend myself” when I post, as I have never felt that I did anything that needed defending. What I am doing is just trying to bring some clarity to the issues that have been raised, and debunk anything that is untrue supposition. For example, above anon yyz states “some one at Effect Measure who then emailed Mary, who then emailed Dr. Niman. Suddenly TB becomes B2H H5N1 rumor. So there is an alternative explanation.”
No.I was not Dr. Niman’s source. What I said was that I posted the rumor on fluwikie, then then next day, AFTER Niman posted same rumor and tshtf,I emailed him to tell him who my source was.
Miscommunication abounds. This is how things get misinterpreted and then nasty. We need to be more careful in what we say and also what we read before sending it on. It’s like the old game of telephone you played as a kid in class, the message that begins at one end gets completely garbled by the other end unless we are very vigilant. I think gharris was merely postulating a potential series of events that could have led to this rumor. Next thing there is an argument about whether he said Bonaventure island or not. This is just silly and unproductive. And since he (gharris)mentioned the name of my source himself on his post at 14:30 today, I feel I can now reveal that the email I was sent which contained this original rumor was from Kruger. I didn’t know he had posted it anywhere else or I would have said this a long time ago. I am trying merely to help clear the air and track down the source of this story so that everyone can be satisfied as to the intent, as to the verity or lack thereof, and any other suppositions that have been made.
YYZ - why are you being cranky with me?! I KNOW the original rumour said Bonaventure - I was using Northern Outpost as an example!!! I dont think the kid necessarily HAD H5N1 and is being hidden - I think that some medical person in a remote area was worried he MIGHT have it - and sent him to ‘civilization’ for testing/care - that is how the rumour got started - from somebody involved with flying the kid out not understanding the difference between the phrase ‘suspected diagnosis’ (i.e.meaning somebody rule it out please) and ‘definite diagnosis’!!! I do however think that it is entirely plausible that a B2H H5N1 MIGHT be hidden for all the usual reasons, having to do with politics and money! Therefore we need to continue to be vigilant!
Mary in Hawaii? — 02 December 2006, 16:01
No.I was not Dr. Niman’s source. What I said was that I posted the rumor on fluwikie, then then next day, AFTER Niman posted same rumor and tshtf, I emailed him to tell him who my source was.
Sorry my bad on this. Wrong sequence.
Next thing there is an argument about whether he said Bonaventure island or not.
gharris didn’t say Bonaventure Island but said it was northern outpost and corrected my supposition based on Bonaventure Island named in your original post of the rumor.
Niman being the big name hasn’t debunked the rumor. He even suggested that he got more information that cannot be disclosed. To a lay person, that sounds like TPTB trying to hide something. Perhaps he’s not fueling the rumor, but he’s sure not trying to debunk it.
I don’t believe the rumor. I thought it was possible to have alternative explanation that the rumor was not true. I thought it was unlikely that any one could hide a H5N1 patient successfully.
We have people running around looking for H5N1 all over Canada, or continue on a witch hunt because Niman said he got additional information that cannot be disclosed.
What do you think about the rumor? True or false?
I think it was true that someone THOUGHT a kid MIGHT have H5N1!! (That was the substance of the rumour and that is ALL that was repeated!)
I also think that a kid with H5N1 MIGHT be hidden by TPTB for all the usual reasons.
Do I think there IS a kid being hidden?
NO - I think by now the kid has been tested and turned out negative, otherwise there wd be further confirmatory leaks.
Niman said IF the rumour was true, then this (the PEI/dog/homework theory) would likely be how infection in such a “possible case” occurred (when he heard the rumour, from whom and the veracity is irrelevant - it was a RUMOUR - it is not up to him to debunk it, unless he knows it to be false, which I dont think he does)He NEVER said the case was anything other than ‘possible’ - which certainly does not sound to me like ‘confirmed’ - does it to you?
IF I am wrong and the kid is ‘positive’ and being hidden somewhere then certainly Niman’s theory would hold a lot of water - but the kid would not necessarily be the ‘patient zero’ of an H2H pandemic in Canada, just a canary abt what else is going on that we dont know.
Just my humble opinion!!
gharris? — 02 December 2006, 14:30
I’ll follow up on Monday but I don’t think this rumour has legs. I believe I would’ve heard a word (or at least sensed a buzz) but I just don’t hear it or feel it.
And yes, YYZ refers to Pearson Airport in Toronto. YWZ is McDonald-Cartier Airport in Ottawa. If Anon_YYZ was in Ottawa he’d be know at Anon_YWZ.
Gee thx OG - having flown in and out of both of them many times I DID already know that!!
While I am possibly willing to accept your unsolicited reassurance on the appellation of airports, I am afraid I have to lump you in with the rest of TPTB with regard to Bumpf from Bytown!!
gharris? — 02 December 2006, 16:56
‘’I think it was true that someone THOUGHT a kid MIGHT have H5N1 (That was the substance of the rumour and that is ALL that was repeated)
I also think that a kid with H5N1 MIGHT be hidden by TPTB for all the usual reasons.
Do I think there IS a kid being hidden?
NO - I think by now the kid has been tested and turned out negative, otherwise there wd be further confirmatory leaks. ‘’
You are almost suggesting that the kid WAS hidden until tested but turned out negative (and perhaps no need to hide if discharged). It is not believable unless you have more evidence.
I think we need more than “some one THOUGHT a kid MIGHT have H5N1”. What in your view is the probability that TPTB had indeed hidden (that’s a positive voluntary action) the kid suspected of H5N1? How strongly did TPTB suspect H5N1 if the kid was hidden? Was there any information indicating a H5N1 test was even conducted? If there was such a test, what prompted such a test? Was it clinical symptoms? Was it known contact with birds - in which case where is the bird? Was it a standard operating procedure for anyone with certain symptoms from certain locations where migratory birds are known to gather? etc etc.
The mind has a funny way of generalizing, filtering or distorting and suddenly we start making bad decisions. What we need are signals that are actionable. If I have a child studying in Quebec, when should he pack it in and come home? Should I take MIGHT as the signal?
I still don’t think any one would be foolish enough to try to hide a B2H H5N1 patient. There is no upside.
No one benefits more from this rumor than Niman and he’s just short of suggesting it should be kept alive. If he had the scantiest of evidence, it would be all over the web by now. I say he has nothing. He’s saying what he’s saying now only to justify his theory of Canadian Dog Eats Homework. He couldn’t face a real journalist Helen Branswell with that. He had to admit his doubt of the source. After Helen Branswell no longer on his case, he started saying he has more information.
Since the story has such a high profile, if there is any incriminating evidence, all one has to do is to contact a U.S. investigative journalist, someone who has gone to jail to protect the source of information.
Umm, and I knew that too (airports). I was just seconding what you had said. I was at your back on a small point.
Quite frankly, I came into this conversation late. I was just offering up my assessment of the Rimouski case and offered to look into it a bit more on behalf of this community.
YYZ - there are several issues here - not the least of which is that no hospital authority can release personal health info - so even if they had a kid with H5N1, he has the right of privacy and the hospital isnt about to tell a reporter or anybody, except the authority to whom they are supposed to report it if it is a reportable disease.
I am sure the protocol in most hospitals is to deny everything until they are given the okay (by Ottawa and the patient or his guardian)to confirm something - so it is not remarkable nor even reprehensible that they would deny it to the people who called initially inquiring from the media or Italian hospitals or wherever.
It is not our ‘right’ to know what the kid has!
continued in next post…
If it were my kid in the hospital with suspicion of some awful communicable disease, I wouldnt want them carolling it from the bell tower either!
In this instance, I might even be afraid for the child’s safety from vigilante wackos or somesuch!
gharris? — 02 December 2006, 18:00
I like the bell tower bit. I also know that you are trying to find the truth.
You know the Niman camp don’t want to talk about this rumor any more. They prefer to shove it under the rug.
Perhaps you could write to some trustworthy journalist and see whether they can dig up some stuff, starting with Helen Branswell. Niman changed the story after being interviewed by HB, so it is a perfectly reasonable request.
I for one think the rumor is dead, even though Niman suggested there’s more or it’s alive but don’t want to talk about it. Makes you wonder.
Re the decision to test - likely the kid comes from a rural setting - with exposure to wild birds - we dont know if he was from Rimouski/Bonaventure/a Northern Outpost - but some medical person was alert enough to consider H5N1 as a possible diagnosis (that is a GOOD thing!!) and, lacking the diagnostic ability in that location, made a decision to have him (my guess) airlifted to Rimouski Hospital where such testing could be done. I think the source of the rumour is the bush pilot, BTW. By the time he arrived in Rimouski, he could have come out in spots (obviously something other than H5N1)so no test was done, or recovered completely, so no test was done, or possibly a test was done based on the request of the first person who saw him which came back negative, or alternatively, Rimouski agreed with the diagnosis, did the test, test was positive and they are hiding the kid?
Of these I think the latter is least likely!
However, if the latter IS the case, then depending on geography, Niman is probably correct.
It is our right to know. Had there been equivocation from Rimouski, then I would have thought more of this. There was none.
What I and others perceived from Rimouski was a response akin to “WTF?”.
Niman ‘changing his story’ or whatever he is accused of doing or not doing with regard to the ‘Rimouski Rumour’ is completely irrelevant - he was told the RUMOUR of a possible case - he attempted to confirm the rumour - he posted his comments based on the ‘possibility’ of the rumour being true (“possible case”) - he withdrew his comments in a timely manner when he was unable to confirm the rumour. What is the problem with all of that?
gharris? — 02 December 2006, 18:12
I think it’s very difficult to hide the kid with positive H5N1. He’s going to be in ICU, with ventilators, take a long time recover if at all. No administrator will take the personal career risk of hiding the kid as he will be discovered sooner or later. Even the Health Minister and the Prime Minister cannot afford to take such a chance. It will be on national TV and it will guarantee a no confidence motion in parliament from opposition. Fortunately, we live in a democracy (with all its limitations) and we wouldn’t find an ambulance circling the city with a sick H5N1 patient while the WHO inspectors are in the hospital. For those who don’t know, this was what happened during SARS in China. I think even they have learned a lesson from that fiasco.
Rimouski hospital’s first obligation is to the patient’s privacy!! If the patient is tested and CONFIRMED to have a reportable disease, it must be reported to Health Canada - then Health Canada has an obligation to make the info public and may advise the hospital to do so.
OG - pls read my para above re ‘testing’
I am NOT saying there IS a kid with confirmed H5N1 in Rimouski!!!!! How many times to I have to repeat it!!
I am merely offering several different scenarios which may explain what happened! One I havent mentioned I dont think, is that Rimouski said good gracious we dont want him here - and sent him off to Mtl Childrens or Ste Justine or somewhere where he is not necessarily being ‘hidden’ but rather ‘undiscovered’ by we compulsive fluwikians!!!
gharris? — 02 December 2006, 18:33
Do you know Niman’s latest position? After withdrawing the rumor because he thought it was impersonation, he changed it again and said it wasn’t impersonation and the source was trusted and stood by the story, and that he has since received additional information but cannot disclose it. He created the impression that he examined enough additional information for him not to agree with the hospital’s denial. My point is people are now hunting all over Canada for anything that looks like an H5N1 case or source. Unnecessary agitation, I think.
gharris? — 02 December 2006, 18:43
I am merely offering several different scenarios which may explain what happened! One I havent mentioned I dont think, is that Rimouski said good gracious we dont want him here - and sent him off to Mtl Childrens or Ste Justine or somewhere where he is not necessarily being ‘hidden’ but rather ‘undiscovered’ by we compulsive fluwikians!!!
How did you come up with Mtl Childrens or Ste Justine hospitals? Those are the hospitals 3 hours away with widely reported RSV outbreaks reported in yesterday’s news.
Is it reasonable to expect Rimouski (which I think is not a tiny hospital but a regional hospital) to send an H5N1 patient 3 hours away in an ambulance?
To put it closer to home, do you expect an H5N1 patient in Kingston will be transferred to Ottawa 2 hours away?
I really think your argument is getting more and more far fetched.
YYZ I lived in Quebec for over a dozen years - am familiar with all those places and my kids have been patients in Mtl Childrens and Ste Justine’s - both are HUGE teaching hospitals with all the latest gizmos, they get kids from all over the province, esp if the kid has something unusual - Ottawa General is no better than KGH - in fact if I had a choice I wd rather be in KGH!! My first pref wd be Toronto Mt Sinai as a matter of fact!!!! :-)) I am NOT ARGUING any position!!!! I dont have a position, other than I can imagine several scenarios!!! Gee whiz you guys!! I am getting bored with this - it’s Saturday night, I have a nice salmon to cook - catcha on the flip side!
ANON-YYZ? — 02 December 2006, 18:47
“…Unnecessary agitation, I think.”
gharris? — 02 December 2006, 19:03
Hey, argument is not the same as arguing. Don’t mean to offend, sorry if I did.
Enjoy the salmon.
Given the choice, I would take the Ottawa Hospital over Kingston General.
By the way, the General no longers exists, nor does the Civic, Riverside or the Rehab Centre. They were amalgamated years ago with the Heart Institute, the Cancer Centre and the university research centres.
The old General is now referred to as the Ottawa Campus, as is now the Ottawa Civic Hospital now called the Civic Campus.
I also lived in Quebec (QC and the Outaouais) for a number of years. However, I know little about Rimouski.