I belong to a social club with approximately 100 members in western Colorado. We publish a monthly newsletter to our members. Space is limited and most articles are 400 words or fewer, so as to fit on one page. I have written the following article. If the editor allows the space, I have a chart to include that will probably drive the size up to two full pages. Without the chart, it will be approximately 1½ pages. Your comments are welcome, before I send the article to the editor on Friday. Thanks.
Pandemic Influenza
A team of researchers led by Dr John Kash, of the University of Washington in Seattle, has confirmed what many have believed for some time: one of the reasons the 1918 influenza pandemic was so deadly (up to 50 million dead) was an “overblown inflammatory response.” Their research has been published in the online edition of the journal Nature; they concluded that the H1N1 virus produced a “cytokine storm” and activated genes that caused cellular death in the lungs. It is because of this immune system response that the 1918 pandemic targeted young adults – those with the strongest immune systems.
In 1975, a new virus was identified in wild ducks and geese: H5N1. All influenza viruses mutate rapidly (due to their RNA makeup), and, in 2003 H5N1 mutated to such an extent that it could infect humans. One person was infected in China; three people were infected in Vietnam. All four died. The next year, 46 people in Thailand and Vietnam were infected; 32 of them (70%) died. So far in 2006, 104 people in nine countries have been infected; 70 of them have died. As with the 1918 pandemic, the majority of the victims are school-aged children and young adults – those with the strongest immune systems. The pace of new infections is not diminishing and the case fatality rate is still very high (67% in 2006).
We have seen some human-to-human infections in Indonesia but, so far, no efficient & sustained human-to-human transmissibility. If and when the H5N1 virus (or another virus with similar characteristics) mutates again to allow that efficient human-to-human transmissibility, the next pandemic will have begun.
Dr. Michael Osterholm is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research at the University of Minnesota. In December 2005, he testified before the US Congress, stating, “I believe an influenza pandemic will be like a 12- to 18-month global blizzard that will ultimately change the world as we know it today.”
In our nation’s “Strategy for Pandemic Influenza,” it is acknowledged that, “The next pandemic is likely to come in waves, each lasting months, and pass through communities of all size across the nation and world. While a pandemic will not damage power lines, banks or computer networks, it will ultimately threaten all critical infrastructure by removing essential personnel from the workplace for weeks or months.”
In “Preparing for a Pandemic Influenza: A Primer for Governors and Senior State Officials” the National Governors Association stated:
• The effects of a pandemic flu will be broad, deep, and simultaneous.
• Medical response capability in a pandemic will be limited, strained, and potentially depleted during a pandemic.
In June 2005, Dr. Osterholm addressed a meeting of health officials in Washington, DC. If the pandemic were to hit today, said Osterholm, “I don’t know what we could do about it except say, ‘We’re screwed.’”
It is evident to many people that no government agency is going to ride over the horizon on a white horse to rescue us or take care of us. It is evident that we may be “on our own” for extended periods of time without normal access to healthcare, food, or public utilities. What should our solution to preparing for a pandemic look like?
First avian H5N1 - 1959, Scotland, chickens
Then a bunch in the US, and then 1991, Norfolk, England, turkeys.
First known human H5N1 - 1997, China, 18 people.
anonymous – at 17:09
Thanks. I took those dates from another thread here; I’ll go back and check some source documents.
Anything else?
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