The last major thread on SIP was Aug 11, 2006.
I’d like to reopen the discussion.
The CDC has said that their goal as a pandemic wave hits an area is to push infection back in time and lower the overall impact on the area… thereby allowing the healthcare system and infrastucture “breathing room”. They did it in St. Louis and in Gunnison Co. in 1918.
http://www.mipodcast.com/H5N1/Town_Meeting/PandemicWaveGraph.pdf
There are 2 ways to do this… 1 - Closing all public gathering places- enforcing social distancing and 2 - Sheltering In Place.
If the CFR of H5N1 does not come down, I believe we will have to SIP in order for our children to survive. The largest deaths seem to have occured within a relatively short timeframe - 5 weeks from the start of illness in an area
(see philidelphia - http://www.mipodcast.com/H5N1/Town_Meeting/Phili_StLouisGraph.pdf)
aonon_22 has said on another thread that if a neighborhood practices SIP then the chances of any one in that neighborhood getting sick would be lower. This has been my opinion for about a month now.
While you may have enough supplies to last 3 months of strict SIP, you are not prepped if those around you will be out and about searching for food, water etc… they will bring the virus to you. Guns will not keep you safe if starvation looms around you.
That is why I have begun my campaign to get everyone prepped around my home… as far as the eye can see and beyond. The wider the circle of SIP prepped houses, the safer my kids will be.
Obviously critical workers will be performing their duties within reason IF they are protected. That is part of any good SIP plan for a family.
Now, if the CFR drops to say… 1% strict measures would not be needed….. anyone seeing the CFR dropping?
I don’t.
Goju - I hadn’t seen that Philly/St. Louis chart before. If someone doesn’t get that closing schools, meetings,etc. works then they really do have their head in the sand. Great work.
If anyone out there needs help convinicng others to prep/sip - show them goju’s charts!
That would be akin to the USA federal budget, going down to 1%, and that just is not going to happen. For the virus to drop from 70plus% down to 1% is nil in my book and that is why I am prepping big time.
Need FluWiki opinions please.
I live less than 2 miles from a hospital. Was seriously thinking about taping all windows and doors, and using several, several plants indoors as an oxygen source, sort of a green house effect. Would this work? I would only do this for the initial 8 weeks, then open up for some fresh air. I have an ample supply of drinking water, 8 55 gallon drums of water for bathing, washing etc., that I have room for indoors. Garbage would be kept to a minimum. will enclose back porch to store canned garbage, garbage that can be burned will be burnt in the fire place.
Please post your suggestions, am I crazy, or is this something I can pull off?
Has Philly/St. Louis been analysed to see things beyond the chart? It does make sense, but I’m interested in what they did exactly, what was people’s compliance, if “external” factors such as weather etc played a role, and also about “internal” factors such as poverty (meaning size of houses etc).
Ok, googled for “Louis site:fluwikie2.com” and up came this and this?. Will read and summarise.
Protective Sequestration: How It Works
“In the summer of 2005, the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan Medical School was contacted by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and asked to conduct research into and write a report on American communities that had experienced extremely low rates of influenza during the infamous 1918–1920 influenza pandemic. A team of historians from the Center for the History of Medicine visited these communities to locate, assess, and collect available primary source material from libraries, archives, and other private and public holdings. We then undertook a historical evaluation of the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) as employed by successful communities during the second wave (September-December 1918) of the pandemic.”
Forum.EfficacyOfSocialDistancingMeasures anon_22 – at 19:23
I copy from that thread:
For the average Joe, the message can be very simple:
A bit later in that thread, Monotreme suggested this wouldn’t work in megacities. Anon_22 suggested data from Hong-Kong and SARS would work at least to a certain extent. But don’t take my word for it and read the thread itself - not too closely because they may have changed their minds ;)
Dude – at 14:17 mentioned his “a simple prevention plan” (I could try and find the link to that).
BirdGuano – at 14:57 provides a list of megacities.
Then, after some noise, the thread goes on to a second part, where we can read:
ANON-YYZ – at 23:22
It seems that there are several interpretations of the term ‘social distancing’ on this thread:
After which anon_22 – at 01:46 reconducts the thread a bit (or tries to, I haven’t read it all yet):
We will probably have to have plans A, B, C, D, and E and maybe more, and depending on how it pans out, if you have multiple alternatives, and fully understand the pros and cons of each alternative and when they might work best and when not, then you are more likely to be able to come up with the right one at the right time.
But the time to do figure these out is NOW, not when all hell breaks loose.
And then anon_22 goes on to write:
anon_22 – at 01:56
To put it in another way, communities need to set plans for different stages:
… The policies that will make the most difference to eventual mortality and the sustainability of society will be those rolled out at #2.
… THAT is where policy decisions should be affected by the informed electorate. aka Fluwikians We have a lot more learning to do.
Then FrenchieGirl translates parts of what looks like the French Pandemic Plan, and writes she doesn’t like it and why.
Then anon_22 – at 01:10 comes back to write some more:
If we go back to the notion that social distancing policy measures will make a difference to the eventual outcome only if started early, then the next logical question is how do we make this come about.
The most important prepandemic policy to adopt is to tell people to stockpile essential items.
Later still, Monotreme – at 21:21 wrote:
In American Samoa, there was a complete quarantine during the 1918 pandemic. No-one died of it there. No-one.
In Australia, there was an attempt to keep it out. Ultimately this failed, but they delayed long enough that the virus was much weaker. They had reduced mortality as a result.
Then, 30 August 2006 anon_22 – at 00:01 there’s a lengthy discussion of why people don’t prep and how could they be lit up to do it. Really interesting, IMO.
Oh, blimey - Monotreme – at 21:07 Welcome back lugon. Check out the Community Preps for a Worst Case Scenario series if you get a chance. Your input is always helpful. Part 1 is here. Hadn’t read it at all!
And finally Forum.EfficacyOfSocialDistancingMeasuresIII, which I’ll read at another time.
Hope this helped someone - it certainly helped me!
i’ve got TV coverage coming next Thursday to do the prep story
That’s Goju who has the TV coverage coming next Thursday!
Yes Pixie - Tis I Goju - I had signed on from a different computer - got Big time TV news interested in “the big picture”
More details to come….
Go Goju!
Seriously though I believe the SIP issue is going to come down to a household by household determination of what is most effective.
For our home, due to the number of “at risk” people … 5 kids between the ages of 2 and 16 and two adults 40/42 … we will be in at least limited SIP.
We have to remain flexible due to our outside responsibilities … we own/manage rental properties. But we also have responsibilities to our kids. Its not going to do a lot of good for us to protect the kids with an SIP if we then get it. It will run through our house like wildfire and we have no one around to count on but each other. My parents are out of town by three hours and my brother and his family live off of the long distance trucking business (he’s an independent operator).
I’ve made as many plans as I believe are feasible for our family … exterior sanitation of husband if he has to go out. But we will remain sequestered as much as possible to at least minimize risks.
On the other hand, an adult-only household may have more advantages in volunteering, or at least having more control in their immediate exposure zone … such as neighborhood planning and work groups.
Our primary goal is to remain flexible until more information is available but to plan for as many issues as we can.
Safe SIP is predicated on early warning. No early warning SIP won’t be possible unless you live in the last infected place in the country. All kids should be SIP—Kathy in FL hope you got plenty of RWFK.
Birdie – at 11:36 RE SIPing by sealing the doors and windows:
Keep in mind houses aren’t airtight, and even with plastic and duct tape you won’t be able to block all airflow. Even so your plan should work: But keep in mind the danger isn’t viral bodies floating in the air, but rather those on things you touch and the ones that others cough/sneeze/breathe on you.
Birdie, living 2 miles from a hospital doesn’t sound risky enough to have to seal your windows. Unless the ER has a really long line of sick people stretching past your door. ;) There was a discussion on a thread called Going Outside during a pandemic, I think, that covered the subject.
Leo7 – at 16:52 Safe SIP is predicated on early warning. No early warning SIP won’t be possible unless you live in the last infected place in the country.
I’m not sure if you mean official early warning. If so, I agree. There won’t be any. But I think there will be enough signs for we vigilant ones to sound an early warning, at least among our community. My DH and I have certain things we are watching for on the threads here and elsewhere. Once we see ‘em, our kiddos are coming home for the duration. Reminds me. I need to research the homeschool thread.
Edna Mode:
Yes, I meant that we (the group) remain vigilant. Once TPTB said the airports won’t be closed as a prevention measure—that sealed it for me. If the group missess the alarm, we all miss it. Pixie in the Indo thread picked up an article on the Handsome Hosp in Bandung being overwhelmed. Overwhelmed hospitals even from the worried well or other than AF sick is a key sign. Stay tuned.
Big problem are the schools. They have a terrible plan to follow. Costa.
I am meeting with the health Director of the town Friday and that is my #1 priority to discuss.
Strickt SIP is the only way to safaeguard the kids… unless the virus changes its taste. That will not be possible unless those around you are also SIP capable.
Instead of sealing the house I have gone to positive air pressure. I have a green house attached to the house. I have some small 12VDC fans and Hepa filters that blow air from the green house into the house. The exhaust is out through the “sick room”. The idea is to have all house air filtered and at positive pressure to the outside world. Not great, but around here we don’t use AC -just outside air so it was a natural solution to several “normal” things as well. Oh, and yes, I can power the fans of my solar array/battery system. (the intake into the greenhouse is via a simple filter).
Birdie: I read once that you could tape 3 layers of a cotton sheet over a window that is left partially open and it would allow fresh air in and filter particulate matter out. I don’t know if that is true, but I did buy single white 100% cotton sheets just for that purpose.
I know that when my windows are open my house fills with the smells of all the houses surrounding me: I get their cigarette smoke, their fabric softener, their kitchen smells, etc. And, I live in a house with a sizeable yard to buffer me. I believe that smells are molecules of the actual substance.
I think, whether you live in close proximity to a hospital or not, if your neighbors are sick you could be at risk even inside your home unless you take precautions.
Leo7, I’m tuned. I saw that earlier and found it worrisome.
DennisC:
Was your life the basis for that TV show McGuyver? I bet I could hand you a pail of junk and you would return a carbeurator. Great idea.
DennisC – at 17:41 I thought that was negative pressure, maybe I’m wrong:o)
Can you guys please post, what you consider warning signs. What will make you SIP?
My warning signs are more clusters (which we have), larger clusters (not so much since May), HCWs getting sick and dying (not yet, unless you consider dengue in India could be misdiagnosed, but I doubt that), overwhelmed hospitals (may have in Indo; do have in India), weird military recalls or deployments. I also have some local cues that I will be watching via well-placed contacts in state government that I don’t/can’t specify.
At this point, there are not enough well-confirmed (and I’m not talking about MSM) signals close enough in time and space to get us to the point of yanking our kids from school. However, I have a very close eye on everything, and we are ready to do it at a moments notice. I hope we don’t have to. Both kids are in love with school this year. Great teachers, great classmates. It’s the first year both kids have been totally content in school. It will be very sad for them if they can’t finish the school year.
I believe Barry’s book, and some other articles I’ve read, go to great lengths to stress that those who came down with the virus and survived owed that survival to, more than anything else, great ventillation. Take a look again at the pictures of the military hospitals - check those enormous windows - open. Just something to keep in mind if and when.
What is HCW? please:o)
HCW = health care worker.
While I don’t believe in doing nothing, I am simply living my life as usual, doing whatever interests me, enjoying nature and the little incidents which amuse me. I have only my own life to protect so I can be cavalier in my attitude. I’ll SIP for no logical reason. I will do it when I see and hear about the flu, and deaths from the flu. I have lost interest in Indonesia. Its corrupt, the people have their own ways of doing things which add to the problem. Our own country has its obstructionists, for reasons of their own people like yesterday and todays spammer will gum up the works. So when I know its here, I’ll lock my door, pull up the draw bridge and hibernate.
diana – at 19:13 While I don’t believe in doing nothing, I am simply living my life as usual, doing whatever interests me, enjoying nature and the little incidents which amuse me.
Diana, This isn’t directed specifically at you. Just using your comment as a foil for something that’s been on my mind for a while. I think it’s a common misperception that people who are engaged in watchful waiting aren’t living life as usual, doing whatever interests them, etc. Many people think following H5N1 and enjoying life are incompatible. If anything, my family is making more time for fun (planned absences from work and school for family trips, etc.) and spending more money on doing fun things that we love doing and won’t be able to do during pandemic. In fact, I think most preppers probably have very rich lives and prep to preserve that.
Edna Mode – at 19:55 In fact, I think most preppers probably have very rich lives and prep to preserve that.
Yep.
i am on the verge of a major financial deal that could change my life. And then theres the threat of Panedmic ending everything.
I just go on as if its not out there.
Wheres that rice I ordered?
When to SIP? good question - we’ll know it when its time.
Closed to maintain Forum speed.