Forum: Borders

I don’t see how border’s can be effectively closed/controlled! Does anyone else?

why not ? This is being done already by customs. It would be better to take natural borders than political borders. Rivers,mountains,seas, deserts, open fields controlled by helicopters etc.

 How do the drug’s get in?

How do you explain the massive “influx” of illegals (who knows the real actual numbers)? Our emergency rooms are already maxed, I don’t see how wwe can handle a minor increase in need to use ER’s, let alone a pandemic. Under normal circumstances this would be problematic, under these current circumstances it is going to be beyond a nightmare.

Nope. I don’t see anyway the borders can be controlled … unless there is some serious action taken. Honestly, it is the reason I am seriously prepping for this pandemic. It will make the Katrina and Rita incidences look like child play.

we can close borders. In wartimes they are closed. And this isn’t war, so we could close along natural borders, which is easier. It just depends, how severe the pandemic is and whether it pays out compared with the alternative.


Blue, the drugs get in by desinfected and controlled vehicles or quarantined ships or airplanes.

I think he meant smuggled drugs. I dunno.

for smuggled drugs there is great financial interest to bring them in. There is not much reason to smuggle sick,infectious people in a pandemic. But well, some might come in. So you would also close state-borders,city-borders, separate infected quarters.

 Wow.

O.K. So if a person, from the U.S.A., is on a business trip overseas and it is announced that the Bird Flu is now human to human: will the person be let back into the U.S.A if he tries to go home the next day?

(Say the business trip was in the U.K. and 50 cases of suspected human to human Bird Flu were just announced today in various places in Europe and Asia).

(Trying to write scenarios you realise there may be a sufficient warning…?!?)

Blue -

I can’t speak for when any border would be closed, but I think the best way to try to insure that you would get back to the US is to have a plane ticket on an airline that has it’s base in the US rather than Europe. They would want to get back to the US.

Airports would be the first, quickest and easiest mode of international containment.

IF…things get this bad, to close borders…I don’t think any goverment or business will worry about the individual. We will be on our own “over there” just like we are here. I am reconsidering all my booked international travel at this point.

If you think BF is going to be bad here…just think about BF on steriods if you get stuck in a foreign country! I don’t think you’ll be able to get back. IMHO.

Excellent point JV. There would probably be a time limit on that, then, or…..

(! I don’t know the answer- but I want to know the answer !)

MAV…You are saying that the business man wouldn’t get home if he left it to the next day?!?

Would he get home if he booked a flight the very instant he heard the news(say, 2 hours after it was first in the media)?

(Definately agree with it being the quickest and easiest!)

there is a perfect way of letting in people safly, quarantine.. but do anyone think this fasilities will be buildt quick enough? One more thing they dont prep for here at least..

 no name- at 13:27- Might be a good idea.

Still, business is business. And the situation will be common. The situation should be being looked at somehow…but this is but one situation. AAAuuuuugh!

If people get trapped overseas, they possibly will die. Where are they going to SIP?

Seems to me that the US gov’t has already said that they will not close the borders immediately.

I can’t imagine any agency setting themseves up for the kind of catastrophe an announcement like “the airports will be closed tomorrow” would bring on. Much safer to announce that all flights HAVE BEEN cancelled and lock the doors. From a public health POV, once a confirmed case or fifty are detected, time is of the essence. a 24 hour (or longer) open travel window would be insane. I don’t think it will matter what your flight or airline origon was.

(BB, they lie!)

 Talk of thermal scanner’s worries me.

closing borders and cancelling air travel may turn out to be two different things

 Go on_

 The talk of thermal scanner’s was in the context of border protection, I must admit.

 But what are thermal scanner’s going to do? People are infectious before the fever even.

Has anyone seen plans to control their town borders? We have semi large towns on all sides with active gang activities and I am worried our police force of 22 will not be able to handle it. Not that they want my opinion!

Closing borders would be a immense military/LE/Ntl Gaurd endevor at a time when even the announcement of such would be creating chaos in the masses and civil unrest at medical facilities and food sources and drawing in those resources locally. In the US- it won’t happen. Not possible. There may be isolated regional attempts to close interstate highways, bridges etc but the manpower and organization required to really close the borders does not exist in the US at this time. On a federal level, as we saw on 9/11, the airports can be closed and flights grounded in a matter of minutes.

 I find it interesting about the grounding of flight’s(of course…it HAD to be done).

 I’m just wondering for how long did they ground the flight’s?

Wouldn’t you hate to be on the plane with a sick person traveling 10–12 hours on recycled air.

As for the US borders… of course they will crossover anyway they can. They are now. If they can make it, they will come. Especially if it means “hope” for medical treatment. Many of the people coming across these borders don’t exactly have access to fluwiki or news sources informing them of what’s happening (or even what to expect.) It’s gonna be a big, fat mess. IMHO

There is a difference between closing borders and not allowing planes to land - talking here purely about international airports as a border type. I understand that some plans include that nationals will be permitted to return for a defined period (short) but must immediately enter quarantine. I would suggest that what would be curtailed immediately is the standard movement of general passengers around the world.

For countires on the same continent with long land borders, I agree that managing the problem would be almost impossible - perhaps no different from what may already be experienced by some. There is a distinct advantage to being an island nation in the middle of nowhere ;-)

Plans are already in place to control air travel (at least in Australia) At the moment, aircraft are automatically granted free pratique (quarantine clearance). Once we go to the next pandemic stage, that stops immediately. The pilot has to warrant that all his (her) passengers are healthy before anyone is allowed off.

There is a suitably strained and equipped airport nurse at each major airport and anyone who is obviously sick or feverish will be referred and nobody else allowed to leave until we know whats wrong with the sick one. If its bird flu then everyone is getting tamiflu’ed and quarantined. Thermal scanners are additional and we already have “one passenger at a time” doors so that people can be checked and halted if necessary.

Woops for “strained” read “trained”!

I assume it will come in degrees, not all at once.

first there could be desinfection cavities for cars, prohibition to leave the cars except at some places, then flu-tests for passengers, flu-passes to measure when you were controlled and healthy, when you were exposed or at risk, what protective wear you had, then exceeded surveillance of people at risk, then quarantine, then maybe only certified safe cars with locked doors may pass , then complete closing or control of streets, trains,..

I do accept that Australia is lucky in some regard’s…but only if air travel is restricted.

The local health dept (Philadelphia area)in conjunction with neighboring DOH’s plans on closing the counties borders with police and military. I asked for a comment a week ago and have heard nothing back I am going to follow up today and see if I can get anywhere. I’m not holding my breath though. Personally I am not opposed to a quarantine or border closing as long as it is beneficial. Its only going to slow down the progress of the disease. Once the pandemic is in the area you might as well divert the resources elsewhere.

There is an interesting graph in “Nature,” volume 442, p.448–452 (27 July 2006), author Ferguson. I could only access the “supplementary notes,” but, the graph shows the effect of border and travel restrictions in the US. I am sure that this is just one of many studies at which our government is looking. The Figure S|19 is on page 35.

http://tinyurl.com/qvsnb

The discussion coming before this graph states, “All policies include 99.9% effective border controls, since within country reductions on travel have very limited impact in the absence of border restrictions, due to infection being widely seeded solely from external imports.”

We will see how our government will use such information in the future.

There are other quite interesting graphs in this supplement, like Figure S|16 , p.32, which shows the results of delaying mitigating measures.

Forgot to state the article is called “Strategies for Mitigating an Influenza Pandemic.”

I would like to see(I would love to see) all commercial flights grounded within about 12 hours of any announcement that H2H Pandemic Flu has emerged?

It is obviously the biggest factor in determining the overall safety of us all.

Because if it is ever announced(which I sincerely hope never/ever happens in anyones lifetime), then the media’s mass broadcast warning and the government’s hopefully even more precise, promptness to act will be the only thing that truly matters.

I am reproducing here the post I just made on another thread in reply to Anon_22′s question on borders. It may shed some light on the discussion:

anon_22 – at 20:42 — Frenchie, a quick question, then I have to go. On the European continent, what does ‘closing the border’ mean? Like you draw a line somewhere and guard it with …what?

For a number of borders, they follow nature, like rivers and mountains. They are presently marked in nature by engraved blocks of masonry or stones. It means that roads are closed with barriers, possibly with those things with big nails in them, barbed wire fences, patrols with dogs. If it were war, it would be orders to shoot. The Swiss have a number of frigates for Lake Geneva safety (they actually do have a “Marine”, would you believe!). The Swiss Army is reputed to be extremely good (whether that’s true or not I don’t know), their equipment is excellent, and their citizens do army training two weeks every two years or so until they get too old, then they do civil service.

In the countryside here, some (ordinary) fences in the mountain are still maintained. For example, once I went for mushroom picking in the mountains on the North Side of Geneva. I could not get into Switzerland unless I was willing to jump over the fences (they were not very high). In no time you can transform these with high barbed wire. Even in peaceful times as now, the border is patrolled on both sides, roads with unmarked cars and dogs (sniffing drugs) and nature with walking patrols, also with dogs. Some patrols are armed and may use them on chasing people who refuse to stop or attack them. At any rate, you may be controlled at any time on either side. Whenever there is a big robbery in Geneva, the borders are “closed”, i.e. they put barriers and control almost every car, bus, train, searching inside and taking the papers on the electronic machine to check your identity, and reinforce patrols in the countryside. Both countries cooperate so you may be controlled not just at the point of crossing but in the whole region (Swiss or French). You better carry ID (and in order) on you at all times. Those days, it can be very long to go home.

Also, whenever there is a big conference in Geneva, one that could provoke risks on the population, they bring in the army, the French on the French side, and the Swiss on the Swiss side. I remember in the 1980s when there was the Palestine Conference at UN, the army raised barricades throughout town and had checkpoints. It was a long job to cross into Switzerland. The army was brought in and had order to shoot if you did not stop at summons - I had to make it very clear to my son that if he was out on the street, if any soldier was saying something (in Schwyzer-Deutsch since they brought them from the deepest of German-speaking Switzerland) he had to stop in his tracks and wait - it was horrible and we were terrified. When Mitterand visited Geneva - I had not paid attention to the news - and I wanted to take my son for a picnic watching planes from a field nearby the airport. We never got there… More recently, when WTO had its Ministerial Meeting in Geneva, with demonstrators all over town, they whisked some Ministers away by helicopter when these demonstrators started making a mess. There were snipers at the top of trees in some parks bordering the lake, with dog patrols beneath the trees :-D When the G8 met in Evian a few years ago, it was a painful job, cops everywhere in the whole county (county = admin.region). I wanted to take my old lady for her Sunday outing, but the countryside was severely restricted so we ended up turning in circles between towns, on secondary roads (the main one was reserved for the G8 attendees), but yet still not in wilderness (which was closed to us mere mortals). I do not know how it is on other borders of other countries, just my local ones, but I would imagine more of the same.

On the other hand, you can go skiing in the Alps and cross into Switzerland and Italy and reach the other countries’ skiing resorts.

As in the war, it would be impossible to make it completely crossing-proof, but you’d have to know the area very very well to know where to cross without being caught. Still, the authorities know their business when it comes to close the border.

Here in the States the Borders between us and Mexico are a joke. On the Canadian side, I think the guards don’t have any weapons. I don’t know about the American border patrol. I would assume they did.

California has already given up on trying to control the border in a Pandemic.

A surge of infected aliens from Mexico is already written into the California pandemic plan.

 Shouldn’t volunteers be called up to protect the border during such times?

EnoughAlready – at 00:36: It’s gonna be a big, fat mess. IMHO

MHO, too.

In the U.S., we’ve recently seen an outbreak of e-coli infected spinach from 9 California farms reach 10 states in a flash (before anyone really knew what was happening), make it to 25 states within 10 days even though people were looking for it by that point, and had 170+ people infected.

This all happened in what appeared to be an instant. It was a lesson in how fast something virulent can spread, and also about just how dependent we are on our daily supplies coming from far afield. Everything I have heard from TPTB indicate that they believe a true pademic strain will be spread just as fast and that by the time we think about the borders it will be too late.

I will not travel outside the US for any reason at this time. I am reluctant to travel more than 8 hours drive away from home base, and when I do I travel heavy.

 Pixie-at 11:05

 That is why something should be done about border’s now.

What about flight’s from Indonesia- Are they being restricted?(all the infected Asian countries)

What about Indonesia not allowing people in or out?

Are these thing’s impractical?

I dunno…I’m just a layman!

What about testing people for fever’s before they get on a plane…do they even do this?

No, I hear you all say. What about proper Bird Flu testing for anyone thinking of leaving these infected countries!?

If any of these measures are currently being implemented-please tell me. Then I will zip it!

“Any plan, boldy executed, is better than none!”

It comes down to money…you probably can’t expect to test everyone for bird flu that leaves indonesia…but being worried about the improbability of closing borders in time is WORRYING.

I don’t mind looking dumb…please correct me!

anonymous-at 06:31

Where are you? We need some answers on timing of boder closing/restrictions.

(The world is at stake_HELP!)

Pixie-at 11:05- has said that TPTB(The Powers That Be) believe border crossings will come too late…I am hoping we can all come up with solutions!

Ta.

Blue,

I travel by air 45 weeks each year in the U.S.A. and I now carry an N100 respirator with me. My fear is not of the sick international passengers who are entering the U.S.A., but of the domestic passenger who appears well, but is merely presymptomatic and is capable of shedding the virus by coughing or sneezing in the cabin. How do I know where these all these other passengers have been or what they have done? They could be flying with me from Dallas to Chicago after coming back from just about anywhere on Earth. How would I know if they have already been through U.S. Customs and are now on a domestic flight with me?

I hope I am wrong, but my assumption is that by the time a pandemic has been confirmed overseas, dozens of soon-to-be-sick international passengers will be taking the flu back to their home towns. As they make their way home, they will each unwittingly infect several people who sit near them on their flights. When they get finally get home, they will each infect dozens more. From that point there will be no stopping it.

what they use on the border/airports are this remothe thermometer, but if people dont have any fewer it will not work. Here they “maybe” plan to use cheap thermometers as give aways with a flyer, telling you take temp when you arriwe in the hotel /home, and report in if sick.. I dont beliwe anyone will do this. After arriwing to a new city, the first thing you do is to go to a reastaurant, or hoock up with old friends in a bar… But after a pandemic is decleard no one will trawel international anyway I hope..

actually (or better from December.on) it would make sense to wear a mask because of fear from normal flu or common cold, but not bird flu. Too rare is bird flu.

Urdar, I think they will report the temperature. They would need treatment themselves and reporting would be mandatory.

Blue, once there is a human outbreak of H5N1 in Indonesia, then I think they will stop/quarantine flights from Indonesia. Remember SARS. OK, flu can infect asymptotically and is more contagious , but we are more likely to detect it and we are prepared now. Outbreaks are more likely in poultry-surroundings, not hotels and airports. But most experts believe that this will only delay the spread - but then they are assuming a normal pandemic. A killer-virus will induce more severe measures and when it’s not too contagious we might succeed to contain it. But when it once succeeds to cause an outbreak in humans, it can easily succeed again. However we gain some time for preparing, researching the virus, producing vaccine. I could imagine that we will get a years-long warning period before it finally succeeds to break out globally. Maybe not so likely (30%?) but possible IMO.

I think we’ve already had that year of warning. We only have time on this end of history; let’s not waste more.

What about places (including African nations where H5N1 is currently roaming at will) where the health infrastructure, monitoring, or any health care, or any basic investigation of deaths does not even exist? What about governments elsewhere that know facts and diligently hide them?

Why does anyone think a more than h-h-h-h cluster is going to get recognized and called for pandemic, when we’ve seen the dates involved in past cases? It takes too long.

They are so afraid of premature economic and political consequences I am convinced they will call it too late for fear of calling it too early.

People are still travelling for pleasure and business who have no idea of the existing protocols that may delay (if someone begins to act ill in flight) or, strand them from getting home during pandemic, because they are unaware of a “deadly “ pandemic being “imminent”, or, because they’ve heard enough to think, “it can only happen somewhere else”, “it’s only a bird flu”, or just, “hope it will wait to happen until governments have built enough vaccine manufacturing plants and made enough effective vaccine for the millions of the essential workers, hcw, and first responders, and public…”

People should be should be fine with Dr.Dave wearing a mask while travelling. That’s certainly not the problem.

…”by the time a pandemic has been confirmed overseas, dozens of soon-to-be-sick international passengers will be taking the flu back to their home towns. As they make their way home, they will each unwittingly infect several people who sit near them on their flights. When they get finally get home, they will each infect dozens more. From that point there will be no stopping it. “

If any nation has border problems now, if they have illegals in the country, if they have too many addicts who can’t get treatment; pandemic hasn’t started yet, but let’s not wait and react piecemeal on issues after they arise.

People who live in “poultry surroundings” may also work in hotels and airports and restaurants (and, an “industry” I don’t want to attract spambots from). I have no idea what might have happened if one of the sick people had been in crowded public transport, or high-density housing. Maybe we’ve just been lucky so far. Address border concerns with officials and first responders; don’t assume we’ve got another year to hear them say “terrorism is the biggest threat”.

I guess I’m just pessimistic but I don’t think any airline quarantining is going to start until it is much too late. Quarantining is definitely going to be a lagging indicator, not something that is going to keep the panflu out of our country.

Seasonal “flu season” is about 6 months out of the year — with the peak period being a much shorter window. In the opposite hemisphere the flu season is the rest of the year. There is no flu season around the equatorial region. So it seems to me that the odds are more than 50% that when the panflu takes off it will take off somewhere where there is seasonal flu going on at the same time. Since most of the people coming down sick won’t have birds in their house, people are going to think it is regular seasonal flu at first. The reason they are able to track the bird flu cases now is because there are only small numbers getting sick. Once H2H starts and we’ve got big numbers, there will be no testing in many cases. Many people don’t go to the doctor when they catch a bug. No confirmation. Then once cases start getting serious they might get tested. Think about all the confusion with cases the last year. “Possible bird flu…but not likely…positive for bird flu….no negative…yes positive.” By the time the WHO declares we’re at 4, 5, or 6, people are already going to be dropping in this country. We won’t even know for sure that there is a problem until it’s all around us.

I work in a large building where a large number of the employees are originally from Asian countries. On any given day, several people are just returning from their extended vacation back home. Say you’re feeling ill on your first day back from a long vacation. Would you call in sick? Or would you try to suck it up because you know people need you to get back to work already and you don’t want to look like you’re trying to extend your vacation.

Quarantines won’t happen until there are large numbers of people dying in a particular country and then the restrictions will be on flights to and from that particular country. Of course not all countries will stop travel to and from infected countries at the same time. By that time of course infected people will be all around.

The US can’t control its borders on a good day. Forget about it on a bad day. The start of the pandemic will be a “bad day”.

We will try to close the door after everyone has fled.

 also anon-

 may I borrow your last post @ 06:53 and put it on my MYSPACE space?…

 PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESE?

 I think it is a simple/concise illustration of what most peoples worst fear is.

 It makes that fear at the back of everyones mind justifiable,IMHO.

Blue, actually, it’s not borrowing - it’s taking away. When we write here we’re giving things away. Nice, hey?

(Of course!)

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