There has been a great deal of discussion about what TPTB “should” be doing or ought to do. Many of these discussions ignore a crucial law of human existance, Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy.
For the benefit of those not familiar with it, here it is from the Master himself-
“Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy states that in any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people: those who work to further the actual goals of the organization, and those who work for the organization itself. Examples in education would be teachers who work and sacrifice to teach children, vs. union representative who work to protect any teacher including the most incompetent. The Iron Law states that in all cases, the second type of person will always gain control of the organization, and will always write the rules under which the organization functions.” -JEP
If you wish to change the behaviour of TPTB, then you need to formulate your strategy and tactics with this in mind. This is not to say that change is impossible or that change should not be attempted, but I think it worthwhile to bring this up so that people don’t keep banging their heads against the same obstacles over and over. I open the floor to discussion!
LMW. What is your opinion of the right approach…in the past, I have tried every concievable approach I could think of…nothing would shake them out of the spin and comfortable complacency.
Maybe the best we can do is shorten the lag between the “bubbling” of the flu and the social response? It seems that self-interested actors will not be leaders, but they can be persuaded that their own positions and self-interest depend on not seeming to be blind. I wish there was more media frenzy about the China non-reporting and the Indonesia under-reporting. If more people start dying, we might have a few months before things get totally out of control. If only it became an issue in the election! Are any in FW able to direct questions by reporters to candidates? That might get it up to a point that it becomes a public issue. If the facts were presented as Monotreme did in his thread (A Severe Pandemic is Likely), maybe the potential gravity of this would begin to sink in. This seems to me a much bigger threat than terrorism.
When you place the discussion in the context of a threat to their job, or a threat to their organization, then they listen a lot better. I have had good results with this sort of approach but it does need to be tailored to the circumstances. Example- “Sir, Homeland Security is recommending that individuals prep for 2 weeks, and that local communities provide continuity plans for essential services (water, power, etc.). Can you please explain, for publication, why your organization has not complied with these very reasonable recommendations?”
In this case, we have a US government recommendation that they *aren’t doing* (Horrors!) combined with an interest from someone who is asking questions *for publication* (OH NO the PRESS!) This situation poses severe threats of embarrassment, and is likely to get a response. Once you engage them, just keep pressing the sore place when you don’t get a good answer- “So you re saying that there isnt any funding for this effort? how curious, I thought there was a special request for a DHS grant that covered Smithville to prepare for just such an occassion. (This almost always works, whether or not there ever actually was shuch a grant, because the person you are speaking to isn’t going to know whether somebody above him in the food chain diverted the money before he saw it.)
Again, the real trick is to find a way so that doing the plan and the preparation is less painful and less threatening than not complying with the prep and plan idea. You can sweeten the pot by volunteering to help with the planning and prep phases…..
Interesting dynamic at work here. Change is hard, but the bottom line for all of us is this: When the pain of not changing becomes greater than the pain of changing, we WILL change. Unfortunatly, pain is usually the catalyst. If you can get folks to understand that it’s better to be prepared and not need it than to not be prepared and need it, you can usually get them to listen. We are so conditioned to be reactive rather than proactive, and in most cases, the risk is measured and the rewards are quick. In the case of pandemic, the stakes are way too high and there is way too much to lose.
The other thing that gets attention is asking a simple question. How are you going to feel when your wife/child/dog (pick one or more) looks you in the eye, and they are hungry and they KNOW that you KNEW this could happen and you CHOSE to do nothing at all in preparation?
TPTB need to be told that minimizing the ramifications of panflu serves no one. Public servants need to respond and plan for the inevitable and make one of three choices:
Lead Follow Get out of the way
Jeez. I guess we all have to make one of those choices.
SpiritITW You have an excellent approach when dealing with individuals, and one way around the bureaucratic road block is to recruit enough people to force a change in elected officials and even bureaucrats. That may take time we don’t have.
If you want to change a bureaucracy, you need to use different methods; the point I’m trying to make is that those who run our bureaucracies only care about losing face, losing their budget or losing their jobs. The potential suffering of the innocent and the ignorant does not sway TPTB. That is not what they are about. You need to show them a threat to their power base to get their attention. That is what the Iron Law says.
Yes sir (or ma’am) LMW, you got that right. My tactic is to change TPTB is one person at a time. Now the time is ripe to make an appeal to their ego, get that saviour complex kicking in. First you get them on a personal level, then you get them to either lead, follow, or get out of the way. Once they know, I make them feel responsible for acting on that infomation. Afterall, how would you feel if…etc. and how are other people going to feel because YOU KNEW and did NOTHING. (threat to the powerbase)
You are also right when you say we are running out of time. I really like your bureucratic approach, and what it’s going to take is someone in a position of respect and power to step up to the challenge and make things happen. It’s amazing how many have no ability to get things done. Lose face? Hell, if they don’t step up to the plate soon, they’ll be losing more than that.
I am so happy to see this topic here. I am learning so much! Thank you.
spiritinthewind-
You are welcome-thanks for your kind words. A couple of late-night points that I hope will appear cogent in the morning-
- I’m doing this from selfish reasons. I want the impact of this pandemic, if and when it happens, to be mitigated as much as possible. My family and I benefit from that which is why I spend my scarce time not just gleaning information but contributing where I can.
- I want each of us here on the Wiki to become agents of change, both before the pandemic, and afterwards. Bear witness that much could have been done, and was not.
-Remember the Iron Law when dealing with bureaucracies; it will save you much frustration and wasted effort.
Well that’s 3 points, but it’s late.
I think many of us can learn from Goju’s successes - he is aprroaching it very much at the local level. You can be more effective if you can meet with authorities in your area, use pesonal connections to get into someone’s office, etc. This can help help push things up to higher levels. Yes it might be slower vs going straight to the top, but more likely to be effective (I think anyway).
Wish I’d heard this decades ago -thanks, LMWatBullRun.
LauraB – at 06:26 …aprroaching it very much at the local level.
It is an old maxim that has probably been quoted here before: Think globally - act locally.
LMWatBullRun
Way to go!!!
I think i am having success because i am being both kinds of people. i am running the show and coming up with fresh new ideas using the resources already in place.
I have dumbed the pandemic presentation down to 3–4 points and one of them is the key.
I have found when people have a vested interest AND there is an emotional element involved, they can and they will do amazing thngs. The scariest thing about H5N1 is that it is taking our young. Most of TPTB have children. These are hard working people who really do care. They care about their kids, and their residents.
Gets em every time. They ask lots of questions and you have to be ready with the answers. Its been the same with Gov, Store managers, Radio station, TV station, Newspaper, - they are all just ordinary folk who love their kids and wouldn’t want any harm to come to them. They know that they are the parents - the protectors of the young.
The only way to protect the young from what is coming is SIP. Homes have to be prepped to do that.
Every pandemic Plan calls for forced SIP. We here will of course do it voluntarily.
In citys and town in 1918 that immediately “shut down” public gathering spots and “quarentined”
There certainly seems to be a societal inertia about all this. Its like turning around an aircraft carrier with a paddle. I do believe the majority of people will not pay attention until/if the media starts to make a big dea out of panflu.
People want to be part of a crowd, part of the “herd”, safety in numbers and all that. Right now that means to poo-poo the whole bird flu thing. Besides, its so much less frightening to agree with all those folks who think its not going to happen. Facing the worst case possibilities is truly horrifying.
TPTB are part of that crowd, which is why we are making very little progress. In addition, anyone who is part of TPTB and trying to make changes, is currently experiencing the same frustration as us. And there is more social pressure on TPTB to conform to the norm, as they are subject to public ridicule and embarrassment, as well as being voted out of office.
Looks like we are going to need lots more flu-wikians with many more paddles. Or, it might be that the virus itself gets peoples’ attention before we can turn this ship around.
When it comes to TPTB it’s not just personal inertia.
What the Iron Law says is that the survival of the bureaucracy will be placed ahead of the goals of the bureaucracy. That must be factored into your action plan.
When it comes to TPTB it’s not just personal inertia.
What the Iron Law says is that the survival of the bureaucracy will be placed ahead of the goals of the bureaucracy. That must be factored into your action plan.
the powers that be are just people like you and me.
they have children, or grandchildren.
when they realize that this could kill their kids, it becomes personal. people do amazing things when it becomes personal.
try it you’ll see. show them the CDC / WHO graphs showing increasing cases, the current death rate and the ages infected. Show them the WHO reports out of the Western pacific conference 2 weeks ago - Get Ready for Pandemic….. AI Most Serious Health Threat We Face.
Tell them the school their kids go to wont shut down… that they will first alert the health dept when 10% of the students are out sick. in my town thats 40 deaths at 10% CFR.
tell them, show them proof… the people that be will move to action. They don’t want their kids to die.
What about pulling together some current planning assumption the public hasn’t seen? They might help.
I like your 4 points Goju. Sounds like a poster presentation, or something for the handout wiki page.
I’m not a bureaucrat nor do I play office politics on tv, so, I know why I couldn’t be effective. I should have gone straight to grassroots last Oct, rather than thinking the local ptb just needed a clue. Of course back then I didn’t want to be visible -(and still don’t want -no choice though) but, everyone in town needs to be prepped.
Goju’s approach appears to be very effective, and I applaud his efforts. But, *you* are not Goju. Not any sort of criticism, just an observation.
Crfm, your approach needs to be tailored to suit you and your audience. Find a way that works well for you. It’s no good copying someone else’s methods if you cannot copy their delivery method and style.
Which brings us back to the Iron Law. Whatever approach you take, in order for your efforts to have some assurance of being lasting and effective, they MUST take the Iron Law into account.
As support for my assertions regarding bureaucratic schizophrenia, find out, in your location, what percentage of the local public school senior bureaucrats send their children to *private* schools.
The results will shock you, if you have not already encountered this before.
i am just an ordinary guy who wants to protect my kids. The only way i know how is to now move my “preps” beyond my 4 walls and into the greater community. I am not a public speaker - i actually shake when thinking of standing infront of an audience.
But i have put my fears behind me for the good of my kids.
Goju,
I have come to the same conclusion, from a scientific perspective, that it is extremely hard to remain safe from infection if the flu is raging around in your community. Therefore, the best bet is if the overall level of infections are lowered in your neighbourhood. How does one do that? By a general reduction in social interactions. And the way to make that happen is to assist others to become self-sufficient, so that people have less need to go out.
That is, your best bet for survival is not personal isolation, but a general state of reduction in activity in your community, especially in the earliest stages before or just after the virus starts circulating in the wider country.
Have to make the threat of pandemic be a direct threat to the people of the bureaucracy itself.
Perhaps by mentioning that they will need to operate in offices that are glassed off and require negative air vents; that there will not be enough masks, gloves, and gowns for them to be safe at work; that they will have to ensure their connections to their jobs by establishing infallible internet connections. If the physical threats are made obvious to them, they will ‘do something.’ Maybe demos of the glow in the dark transmission of bacterian emulating dust, or showing how one sneeze can aerosolize and infect five rows of people in a theatre would help.
If they want to manage their people, they will have to convince their people that they will indeed be safer ‘at work’ and have everything their people AND THEIR FAMILIES will need to SIP at work safely.
If they are going to have a community to ‘serve’ as political representatives, they are going to have to do something to be sure those people are going to be around to pay taxes and elect them — if it can be shown that sufficient numbers of people are going to die directly from flu, indirectly from flu created hazards like dead bodies and freezing without power, and finally, going bankrupt and unable to pay rent, mortgage and taxes because they can’t or won’t work, TPTB WILL have to do something.
If someone could calculate the number of tax liens that would have to be put on property, and the number of mortgage defaults and squatter evictions necessary under several of the various flu attack rate scenarios, it should be pretty evident to TPTB they WILL HAVE TO ACT.
Parroh let the hebrew slaves go only after he lost his first born.
Anon_22 so right - welcome to my world now. Got ABC TV affiliate coming Fri to do Panflu prep piece. So excited.
LMWatBullRun – at 08:34
The bureaucrats are shocked already (in Canada), no need for more. Guess what happens. They are preparing all government departments (read Canadian Preppers 3 thread) with N95 masks, disinfectant etc. However, the public is given a very successful PR campaign suggesting the government has every thing under control and not warned that personal preparations may be needed.
Preserving the bureaucracy is number One priority, not saving the public. You are right about the schizophrenia. It’s two faces, the public of calm and the private of self-preservation by prepping. Don’t alert the expendable sheep.
We have to go the grass roots route.
ANON-YYZ – at 22:12
The grassroots level only works to a moderate degree unless you have clear leadership at the top. People need to make a convincing case for public engagement, ie public as assets and not liabilities. For that to happen, first thing we have to be empathetic, and not rant too much. Second thing, you have to make them see the benefit for them, eg they won’t get lynched if kids start dying and the parents realized that officials have been sitting on such info form years.
It may be that after TPTB were briefed on the outcomes from the sims on the super computer array) that have been run at Los Alamos, which I am sure they have been, at the top anyway, they decided that anything they do now, at this late date, would be too little, too late.
Is this a rant or is this a wake up call? I may be the lone voice now, but after TSHTF, the same or tougher questions will be asked on the street and at the House of Commons and heads will roll. So I am actually doing TPTB a favor. It may be a small bitter pill to swallow now, but it will be football size after TSHTF. There will be consequences, not getting re-elected or losing the job being the lightest, if they survived the lynch mob during the pandemic.
In Canada, there was the Gomery enquiry, and now there is a call for a public enquiry into the RCMP/Arar case. Both took several years to uncover, but these are mild compared to a post pandemic public enquiry.
I don’t think that TPTB are particularly worried about surviving the political fallout during/after the pandemic. I think that the ones who truly understand the situation are worried about surviving, period.
Surviving long term, I mean, of course.
That’s just ducky! – at 23:51
Some may be not, some may be. All you need is one whistle blower of conscience, and the lies will break like a house of cards, so political fallout may not even be post pandemic. If they are scared, they also know some one within the ranks will bail out first. Can they guarantee that there is no leak to the press? Leaks strangely happen just before an election. Even without leaks, who can guarantee that this won’t become an election issue?
Not too long after the official declaration of phase 6, the world is going to be in a state of chaos, and the last thing anyone, including TPTB, will be worrying about will be leaks to the press or elections. We may be lucky to *have* a press or elections in the wake of the pandemic. However, I am sure you are right, that some will be worried about their political careers until some time into the pandemic. I think that this is a concept to unthinkable for many to be able to grasp.
LMWatBullRun – at 15:36 — Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy — You have just given me the most useful tool which I think I might be able to use. I’ll come back here with some ideas/questions at some other time.
I see a lot written and which is being sent around in my neck of the woods in brochures and pamphlets. Unfortunatly people don’t seem to be reading it. I know what it will say, so I skim through, but there is so much throw away literature, so much to sort through every day in the mail. Its all there, but people simply ignore it all. We are overloaded with magazines, newspapers, thousands of things that interest the public more than a virus that as yet is still “over there.”
in 1918, it took days to weeks for people to travel from continent to continent. Diseases took similar travel times. Attitudes changed slowly.
in 2006, people travel from continent to continent in hours. Diseases travel from continent to continent in days, not weeks. Moving bureaucratic attitudes requires a recognition of the laws governing bureaucratic action and inaction. We *cannot afford* the slow evolution of attitude or gradual recognition of new ideas; time is very short.
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