I need some help with why vaccines are not going to be the answer. Yes I know they will take at least 6 months to produce after H-H and they will be in limited supply. But right now some companies are tooting their horn saying “vaccine looks promising” or something else like that. So now we have a bunch of people that “really” don’t know a heck of a lot about avian influenza pandemics (the common folk) and they hear this on the news about vaccines. So now they think they are all set.
So I need to rebuff someone. I have the basics about why vaccines are not the answer but just need a little more punch to my argument. Thanks
Birdie Kate, I just posted information at a different thread, regarding how many months the seasonal flu vaccine is effective. Maybe it will help answer a few questions. Scroll down to Oct 5 at 12:32.
Get the ‘Full Monty’ on why vaccines are not the answer by reading this series
All of the studies I’ve come across so far have been on animals. This was taken from the CDC:
One study demonstrated good cross-protection against H5N1 in mice following vaccination with an H5 influenza vaccine created through reverse genetics (see References: Lipotov 2005). Protection was achieved despite antigenic differences and incomplete matching between the vaccine strain and the challenge virus. Although these findings are promising, it is not clear if similar protection would occur for humans. A second recent study found that an inactivated whole-virus H5N1 vaccine produced through reverse genetics offered protection to ferrets challenged with the vaccine strain and to ferrets challenged with two other H5N1 strains (see References: Govorkova 2006). Two additional studies have tested the immunogenicity of recombinant adenovirus-based H5N1 vaccines. One study demonstrated protection against lethal challenge in mice (see References: Hoelscher 2006) and the other demonstrated protection in mice and chickens (see References: Gao 2006).
Birdie Kate – at 13:10
Companies make those announcements for investors.
For a vaccine to be effective you actually have to HAVE a vaccine to distribute.
In a pandemic, the current manufacturing capability of flu vaccines is COMPLETELY INADEQUATE.
In the United States of America it’s non-existant.
By the time they made enough vaccine for the majority of the world population, the virus will have drifted enough to make it ineffective, and you have to start the cycle all over again.
Vaccine, except for military and politicians, is pipe dream pablem.
When if/it does start being made, and gets distributed (hopefully people and fuel and security left to do that after 6 or 7 months)
their state gets about enough to vax 1% of the population a week, and another 1% next week, ect,
have them do the math and how high on the priority list they think they are after politicians, military, first responders, hcw, undertakers, power plant operators, truck drivers, snowplow drivers, ect.
Bird Guano: “By the time they made enough vaccine for the majority of the world population, the virus will have drifted enough to make it ineffective, and you have to start the cycle all over again”
Absolutely.
Today my friend who has a second grader told me that he is home with chicken pocks. As are 10 others in his classroom. They have all been vaccinated. This last spring, my granddaughter had mumps. She had also been vaccinated. IMHO, vaccination has been the best thing for humankind, but there is obviously a failure rate among common vaccines. I wonder what the failure rate would be on a new vaccine?
Would you want to try a vaccine that has only been tested on ferrets?
Or, one after the government has dropped normal safety standards for experimental pandemic vaccines, and, any ability to sue the vaccine maker?
Besides, they have to build all the manufacturing plants first…
Dr.Nabarro said last year, that each morning, when he opens his email, he is afraid he will see news that means pandemic has started.
If H5N1 chooses to mutate, there’s no way humans can stop it, nor contain it - heck, we’ll be lucky if we recognize it has happened before it is in dozens of cities via airflight.
Maybe find the current graphs of deaths and age ranges, and print a few of those to hand out.
Ruth – at 18:35
Would you want to try a vaccine that has only been tested on ferrets?
Of course not.
That’s what politicians are for.
LOL
Save some politicians for taking the bodies and getting them buried!
(And, didn’t the hospital staff need some; to chain to the front doors of the ER? maybe those were hospital administrators…)
Study: Flu shots in elderly don’t cut mortality rate
Feb 16, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – Researchers who tracked national data on influenza vaccination rates and mortality in elderly people from 1968 through 2001 say they could find no evidence that flu shots reduced death rates.
A number of previous studies have suggested that flu shots could reduce the number of community-living elderly people who die in winter by as much as 50%, according to the report by Lone Simonsen, PhD, of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and colleagues from NIH and other organizations.
But the authors say they could find no evidence that increasing flu vaccination coverage among people 65 and older lowered mortality rates. Further, they concluded that the number of flu-related deaths in the elderly from 1968 through 2001 was never more than 10% of all winter deaths, suggesting that flu immunization could have only a relatively small effect on total death rates.
“We conclude . . . that there are not enough influenza-related deaths to support the conclusion that vaccination can reduce total winter mortality among the US elderly population by as much as half,” states the article, published yesterday in Archives of Internal Medicine.
The authors looked separately at the data for the 19 years when influenza A(H3N2) viruses predominated and the 14 years when A(H1N1) and B viruses were dominant. They report that vaccination coverage for the elderly increased from 16% in 1972–73 to 65% in 2001, with most of the increase occurring after 1980.
The article says it is “widely believed” that immunization reduces flu-related mortality by 70% to 80%. If that is true, “then the 50-percentage-point increase in vaccination coverage among the elderly after 1980 should have reduced both excess P&I and excess all-cause mortality by about 35% to 40%. We found no evidence to indicate that such a reduction had occurred . . . in any elderly age-group.”
Simonsen L, Reichert TA, Viboud C, et al. Impact of influenza vaccination on seasonal mortality in the US elderly population. Arch Intern Med 2005;165(Feb14):265–72 [Abstract]
http://www.asm.org/Policy/index.asp?bid=39508 “December 5, 2005 - ASM Statement on Pandemic Influenza Plan”…”world. Vaccine manufacturers had difficulty meeting the demand for influenza vaccine in 2001 and 2002, the mildest influenza years in two decades.
Presently, there is only one influenza vaccine manufacturer in the United States. This situation is a major problem in the face of a pandemic when it is unclear if other countries will allow product produced there to be sold for citizens of the United States versus their own.”… “H5N1 clinical trials sponsored by the NIH/NIAID to investigate the safety of a vaccine against H5N1 avian influenza indicate that the vaccine is effective, although, the dose required is 6 times greater than that needed for the seasonal influenza vaccine (90 micrograms of hemagglutinin versus 15) and 2 doses are needed for a protective immune response.
Since the ability to produce two 90 microgram doses of pandemic vaccine against H5N1 virus for each individual to be vaccinated does not currently exist, a strategy is needed to achieve new vaccine production technology.”…
…” The Plan Should Address Treatment of Secondary Bacterial Infections in Influenza Patients and the Critical Need to Ensure Biopharmaceuticals In the Event of a Pandemic
The Plan should include provision for responding to secondary bacterial infections that in the past have been major causes of mortality during an influenza pandemic. Increasing bacterial resistance to antibiotics, the significant reduction in available new antibiotics, and the reduced manufacturing capacity of existing antibiotics raises questions about the ability to deal effectively with secondary bacterial pneumonia, a common cause of influenza deaths. Given this potential vulnerability, there is need to ensure surge capacity within the United States for manufacturing those antibiotics that would be needed in an influenza pandemic. During a pandemic it will be important to have current antimicrobial resistance trends in different geographical areas. Attention should also be paid to prevention of secondary bacterial infections by assuring appropriate child and adult vaccination against bacteria that cause pneumonia.
A related issue that deserves attention is the unique challenge posed to the biopharmaceutical industry by an influenza pandemic and the need to ensure production and a continual supply of life-saving drugs and vaccines over and above those critical for treating and preventing influenza and its related complications.”…
CIDRAP “Mar 15, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Mike Leavitt”…”The nation currently lacks the capacity to make enough egg-based flu vaccine to supply the entire population”…
“When the pandemic plan was released last fall, HHS officials predicted
it would take 4 to 5 years to bring cell-based flu vaccines to the point of usability.
In other comments, Leavitt said it will probably be necessary to develop “a series of vaccines” against the H5N1 avian flu virus as it evolves.”…
“Leavitt noted that no vaccine precisely matching the virus will be available for the first 6 months of a pandemic.
“We will be dependent upon traditional public health measures to contain and limit it,” …In releasing the report, Leavitt said his biggest concern about a pandemic is the problem of rapidly distributing drugs to those who need them, according to the AP report.
“Doing anything millions of times is hard. Doing it fast makes it even more difficult,” he was quoted as saying.
The report said the $162 million for medical supplies will be used to buy 6,000 ventilators, 50 million surgical masks, 50 million N95 respirators, and face shields, gloves, and gowns.
Sounding a theme he has emphasized in recent state “summit” meetings on pandemic preparedness, Leavitt said that in a pandemic,
“Every community will need to rely on its own planning and its own resources as it fights the outbreak.” …
“In releasing the report, Leavitt said his biggest concern about a pandemic is the problem of rapidly distributing drugs to those who need them, according to the AP report.”
I might suggest that Mr. Leavitt might want to have a talk with the American Medical Association regarding the immediate provision of prescriptions to those who request them so that antibiotics etc. can be stockpiled.
This ‘itch can be scratched’…easily.
“Mar 15, 2006″ Why is doing the right thing so hard?
Common sense is an endangered species.
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