Lots of news from official sources out there but there’s nothing like a good ol’ rumor or unoffical observation made by someone in the right place at the right time. So please feel free to share right here.
I’m not necessarily in the right place at the right time but I would like to make a comment.
Just making some lines with all the dots. These lines or the dots don’t need to match any body else’s. So, here goes.
1) A news report? or posting? had stated that there are currently at least 4 serious disease outbreaks in North Korea, one of them being H3N2. (news from NK is non-existent to most of the world; a past thread? mentioned that news from Nepal was shut down?; some news shut-down in Azerbaijan, according to CE, yesterday)
1-a) Evidence of H5N1 hitching a ride on seasonal flu strains - H3N2, H1N1, and B.
2) Reports in the past monthS have stated a rabies epidemic in China that has resulted in China culling dogs, wild or not.
3) Reports about new China outbreaks of avian influenza in birds, needing to be brought under control but not yet under control. (recent)
4) Current South Korea outbreaks of H5.. and culling of so many birds and other animals, including dogs.
5) Proximity of China, North Korea, South Korea etc. etc. to one another.
5) Embassy notices of prudence to prepare for SIP up to 12 weeks. (first one was for Hong Kong, most recent Belgrade)
But, I’m going to stop now even though there’s lots more dots. (are the different clades and sub-clades causing different symptomology, death rates, transmissibility/infection rates? etc.
Opinions please and thank you.
anonymous el al- Why did you stop? Please, post the rest. You have captured my attention. I’ve been hoping someone would summerize what’s currently going on. Lord knows I’m just lost with all of this. Seeing it like this, you can really see a bigger, better picture.
It’s not just BF. There seems to be plenty of news about all sorts of diseases cropping up. Maybe it’s just that our disease antenae are set to super sensitive…
It is not that we are supersensitive. It is just that we are brave enough to find the dots, and experienced enough to play dot to dot. It is only with age and the courage to ask to right questions, that we are able to see the picture developing.
Find every reason to prep, and continue to prep on for the survival of those you love. As always, even in preps, the devil is in the details.
Sometimes I think that just maybe, it won’t be bird flu, but something we wouldn’t even think of. Something like Newcastle Disease combining with Avian bird flu. The strain found in Bulgaria in July, is believed to be a combination of newcastle disease, and a low-pathogenic avian flu, according to the Bulgarian and European labs. TomDVM and I discussed this possiblity, and the idea is not too far fetched. I just watch everything.
Just a question for those who may know. Sometime back in March or April I think, the US Government awarded IBM a large contract to run some seniors and build out other types of computer matrix’s. Does anyone know what happened with the contract? Did they ever finish the work and give out a report? Just wondering and could not think of a better place to post this
Anon_451 – at 00:08
Did you mean scenarios (as opposed to seniors)? I saw the same story about IBM building some large computer simulator in Boca Raton, Florida for research on the bird flu. I would like to know too.
Just to add to the dots, it has been reported that in the H1N1 pandemic, early cases internationally were misdiagnosed as Dengue. If you check, there are some large Dengue outbreaks being reported now.
Dengue- that’s the one that keeps popping up. BUT, I don’t think that the large numbers we’ve seen reported are closet flu casesss. If they were, it would be around the globe by now.
I was under the impression that Dengue and the other disease, Chik…, was winding down. And I have noticed that, Eccles. That’s why I asked my question. Hope it’s not a dummie one.
Adding to dots, there is also that outbreak in, I believe, New Zealand in which not only did a bunch of birds suddenly die, but also a number of dogs and cats. spooky.
I was just thinking today that we need to look at the forest if that’s possible, rather than the trees. Sometimes in these threads we get into analyzing the minutiae of why and how and what if, etc. and don’t see the whole. We are also trying to fill in the big picture when lots of the dots are missing. One big piece of information that could be filled in, if someone has the time and/or expertise, is a statistical comparison of this years outbreaks of Dengue, Chik.., malaria etc with the average cases in the previous five years. That data must be available somewhere on the WHO site I am guessing. It does seem like epidemics are rampant all over the world, but as “on the fence leaning” suggests, it might just be that we have our radar on super sensitive. However if we did find out that there is a significant increase in these diseases that tend to mimic and might be confused with influenza, then the forest may begin to emerge. I for one just feel in my gut that the pandemic has already begun: in India, Nepal, China, Indonesia and perhaps Egypt. Eventually it will make the news.
Exactly Mary. In my gut that is how I feel it will begin. Especially with all the “negative H5N1 test results”. That IMO is due to the nature of H5N1 being hard to diagnose (apparently) and perhaps some places aren’t testing like they should. I think there will be a time of uncertainty and coverup.
anon et al @ 21:26 That is chilling to read. Please do go on.
Yeah, please. :-/ (sigh)
Someone write it all down so next cycle future people don’t get careless…
We might add dots from Egypt where H5N1 in birds and suspicious cases in groups of people have tested negative - but we are finding that standard tests often generate false positives. The lack of very large human clusters suggests that the killer strain has not yet arrived (in Egypt) but with hadj and holidy travel and the flu season, we may well be entering a time where increased vigilence is advisable.
Sorry, that was me at 9:34.
A friend of mine just returned from Costa Rica - reports there is lots of Dengue fever there!
Dengue does indeed seem to be more widespread recently - I spent nearly a year in the Caribbean in 2001 and 2002, and at that point there were hardly any cases at all in the islands. I was on Anguilla, and remember being told that there had been a case or two over on St. Maarten a year or so in the past.
I came home in 2002 from Anguilla and developed a fever disease - never diagnosed, except loosely as a “tropical hemorrhagic fever, possibly mosquito vectored” - if I hadn’t been in such a mentally altered status due to a fever of 104F for weeks on end, I suspect that phrase would have scared the wits out of me. I’m still not sure I didn’t have Dengue. I was neg for malaria, didn’t fit West Nile picture. Odd thing was, I was ill when I left Anguilla in Nov., but the fever didn’t really blow wide open for another couple of weeks - I had felt ill for a month or so, which is why I had come home, but had thought it related to a lupus like syndrome. It did make me do a bit of research on Dengue, months later, when I could again do the simple things like read and comprehend. Dengue can be a real nasty beast - but nothing I read in 2003 left me with the impression that it was nearly as widespread and prevalent as it seems to be today.
OK, quick Dengue question: What is the death rate for dengue? If it gets up to 68%, then it might be BF. IS this a rational line of thought? If they ever announce an outbreak of Dengue and more than half of the people are dying then I won’t think it’s dengue but something worse.
(Wouldn’t it depend on the person’s health before they got dengue, and, what kind of care they get?)
2005; Phillipiines didn’t see over 2.8% cfr (whoops- just closed the page -I really should get outside for a walk… )
Dengue is higher on my list than H5N1. As are the other mosquito vector diseases.
I think that once the pandemic begins it will be in Europe and the United States faster than we can type the warning. I think we will wake up one day, and there will be these severe flu cases multipling around the country. It will take “them” a few days to diagnose it and BINGO, we have pandemic flu. Sorry, but with all the cover ups and the fact that it takes “them” forever to rule out H5N1, one day they will rule it “in” and it will be too late. Our radars are up. Epidemics have always been happening, not new news, but when the pandemic is out of the bag, it will be recognized too late. Just my opinion.
I looked up data on dengue just because, like you all, I was somewhat alarmed by the number of cases, particularly in India and Pakistan and even in the Phillipines, where there were 10 deaths 11/08 but only 3 actually confirmed as dengue, the rest just “presumed.”
According to the online source I went to “The illness can last up to 10 days, but complete recovery can take as long as a month. Older children and adults are usually sicker than young children.” (In the Phillipines case, all that died were children.) “Most dengue infections result in relatively mild illness, but some can progress to dengue hemorrhagic fever… (which is) fatal in about 5% of cases…”
http://www.dhpe.org/infect/dengue.html
My take on this is that dengue is usually non fatal, and only a relative few cases become the more serious hemorrhagic fever variety, and even of those, only 5% die. So if we were to extrapolate say 20% of dengue cases ( a high guess-timate) become hemorrhagic, and 5% of those die, then in 1000 cases you would expect 10 deaths.
I think some of the current outbreaks are already over that cfr.
Regarding the above 2 questions about the IBM Pandemic Project:
Check these links:
http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/19640.wss
http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ideasfromibm/healthcare/aug14/index.html
Someone that I am in contact with told me that the IBM initiated Global Pandemic Initiave (GPI) will be having it’s annual meeting in December in Boca Raton, FL
Ruth at 14:28 -
I think you’re right on.
Kath-rn – at 17:25 Thank you
I was in a local pharmacy 2 days ago, and overheard a conversation, between pharmacist & customer, saying ‘Long Island, and surrounding areas “ were loaded at present with influenza..anyone know about this ? I have heard nothing about it till then.
Viral fever affects 5,000 in Sri Lanka:
A doctor is quoted as saying:
“We have confirmed there is an outbreak going on in Kalmunai, Mannar, Batticaloa, Puttalam and some parts of Colombo city,” he added. “It is in densely populated pockets.”
Abeysinghe said he believed up to 60 percent of reported fever cases were due to Chikungunya.
“There are several different fevers. Not all fevers reported are Chikungunya,” he said, but added that bird flu was “very, very unlikely because there are no respiratory symptoms, no cough or cold or anything like that”.
Okay, well, does that make anyone else uncomfortable?
given that they aren’t testing for H5N1, and, that some past H5N1 cases have presented with meningitis and intestinal symptoms, ya mean, Nova?
(shudder …I gotta work on my “procrastinated” list. ttfn )
Chikunguya and Dengue make me very uncomfortable. It is only a matter of time before it hits us. Probably next summer with the resurgance of the tiger mosquito. I just hope they get people to remove pots of standing water and have a proper mosquito control system in the south. Jersy mosquitoes have had a bad rep for hundreds of years, but the tiger is even more ferocious.
Just talked to relatives in Colorado Springs, literally everyone in the family has flu. 7 out of 7. Apparently “everyone out there is sick”. So another outbreak happening in CO now too.
Had they had the seasonal flu shot, TreasureIslandGal ?
These has got to be some of the first flu in colorado.I have kept my ears and eyes open and havnt seen any or heard about any!
TreasureIslandGal: Seasonal flu or stomach flu? Ditto on did they have their shots?
crfullmoon: Yep.
Supposedly they think it is seasonal flu, but the boy (child of 10) has a stomach part with it that the adults don’t have. High fever is bringing a littel nausea too though. It has lasted 4 or 5 days already and they all came down with it within 2 days of eachother. They think the kid brought it home from school before they broke for Thanksgiving.
Someone told me that they are having bad outbreaks of flu in Long Island.
Not all of them got their shots, but some did. Problem is, the few that were able to get theirs were only just able to get them about 3 weeks ago. -probably not enough time to build up a good immunity within just 2 weeks before exposure.
Unknown therefore if their flu was covered by the shot. I beleive the kid was taken to the doctor and diagnosed but the rest assumed they just had what he had. Not sure if actual test was taken or if Doc diagnosed based on knowing of other cases at kid’s school already diagnosed.
I also heard from more famils & friends that it was starting bad in Atlanta, GA area now too. Raleigh, NC as well.
Two weeks should be about right for immunity.
IF the strain of flu they have was covered by the vaccine.
We still have no flu shots at my work. We are having a clinic saturday so i guess i will get it then.
diana at 11:17: Where do you live? That is, do you live in an area that has little or no freezing temps or are you saying that even Minnesota or Canada should worry about those diseases? I thought of them as mainly tropical.
I live in Jersey. I have the tiger mosquito here. We have freezing temps, snow, ice and all the rest. I think in the North East the tiger mosquito has gotten this far. The mosquito is here. When its warmer all we need is a human carrier who has contracted the illness.
Has anyone else noticed that the news of school closings has just “dried up” in the east? I mean, 3 neighboring school districts on the Tennessee/North Carolina border closed their schools in the 2 weeks before Thanksgiving, and now nothing out there, no matter how hard I search on Google and the other search engines. Now on the wiki, I see reports of seasonal flu in Long Island, and Colorado, but nothing in the news. Flu doesn’t just peter out at this time of year, it keeps growing and spreading. So, why are the cases being supressed??
About a week or so before the first school closed in NC, there was a report on the wiki of an unidentified woman who was either from Egypt or had just returned from Egypt, being found in a bus station with severe fever and flu symptoms, and she died a couple of days later at the local hospital.
I recall that the death was a couple of hours on Interstate highways from the first school district that shut down a week or so later. _____
Here is what I think:
We may never be told about a bird flu outbreak. If the CFR gets down to 1 or 2 percent, or even 3 or 4 percent, they might even get away with it. A few mis-diagnosis as “west nile” here, a couple of deaths from respiratory illness, but not flu, there…a “novel” strain of pnuemonia..etc.
By the way…How many people would the government need to control or influence to distribute faulty h5n1 tests that don’t actually test for h5n1 at all? How many people are actually involved in the preparation of testing supplies for h5n1? Do most doctors doing the tests have their own reagents and labs, or do they just depend on the CDC and WHO? (rhetorical—we all know who makes and distributes the tests) Seems to me that it would be easy, childs play really, for TPTB to keep a lid on the situation, especially if that CFR stays down in the single digits…
mcjohnston92 at 18:42--I think this fits in well with your theory.
Driver who collapsed while driving bus DiesCharleston,SC Nov.24
A school bus driver who collapsed at the wheel with four children abroad has died. Julius Goodley died Thurs. after being taken to Saint Francis Hospital with a 105 degree fever.
A cause of death was not available and hospital officials would not provide any information about Goodley.
Interesting that this is an area of concern for flu and that he would be easily exposed from the children. The high fever and sudden collapse are cause for concern. And why the secrecy from the hospital?
Dot…Dot…Dot
The dots are there…will we ever see them???
mcjohnston92- you make some very good points, and the best point you’ve made. to my mind, is that perhaps we won’t be told about bird flu until it’s too late, if left to TPTB. Perhaps TPTB are making appear as though they are attemping to do something. I know it sounds conspiricy like, but who know what is going on.
Witness—do you have a link?? I’m going to start looking closely at South Carolina local news sources now…
I looked for NC school closings, in Yancy County Burnsville NC. Found a web site for the elem. school, nothing about school being closed. This town was one of the ones closed before thanksgiving break. I don’t have time to look further now.
The did re-open. I found the news for that.
Lohrewok
Thanks…I wasn’t really going there though. I saw that the schools opened back up after about a week or ten days in each of the three counties that closed.
What concerned me is that this epidemic seems to just be “gone”. No other reports of widespread respiratory illness in surrounding areas…no other schools closed in surrounding areas. The CDC site shows flu cases in NC subsiding. It just doesn’t seem to add up. Flu doesn’t peter out at this time of year. It blooms, festers, mushrooms and gets much worse before it gets better. I want to know where it went, or who is hiding it if it is still there…and why, if it is only seasonal flu, is it being hidden/suppressed?
I don’t think they would even consider H5N1 untill there has been mass bird die offs.
What about the Iowa schol that closed last week because 500 were out sick, I mever heard the follow up.
mcjohnston92- your really shaking me up. I now see this fanning out, and nobody knows except, perhaps, the CDC? It really is creepy, I’ll give you that.
oh unless the school closings were food poisioning or norovirus.
Yep, and remember, per CDC and WHO—no recent bird contact, no h5n1 test period. Therefore, if you don’t have documented bird contacts, you cannot have h5n1. And if the CFR in our developed country—with good access to antibiotics for the secondary infections that actually do most of influenza’s killing—stays below a threshold of, I don’t know, even maybe 5 percent, I think they will never, ever admit to h5n1--no one will be tested. We will just die from a “curiously virulent” seasonal strain…
The day after tomorrow…
Nope, the cases in NC and Tennessee were definitely identified as influenza.
CHARLESTON, S.C. (AP) - A school bus driver who collapsed at the wheel with four children on board died Thursday.
Julius Goodley, 66, of North Charleston died after being taken to Bon Secours St. Francis Hospital with a 105-degree fever and suffering from dehydration.
A cause of death was not available and hospital officials would not provide any information about Goodley on Thursday. His death was confirmed by Hilton’s Mortuary Inc. in North Charleston, which is handling the services.
When Goodley lost consciousness Tuesday, 10-year-old DeAndrew Hobson grabbed the wheel of his school bus and helped bring it to a safe stop during rush hour.
http://www.beaufortgazette.com/state_news/ regional/story/6247162p-5453900c.html
Here is the story. very odd.
Ok, I really really don’t want to add to the paranoia but- There was another school system in Tn to shut down- Wayne county on Tn/Ala border. Its in my tv viewing area so I found just a blip about it before Thanksgiving. Now nothing. Curiously though, on the Schools Web Page There is a button marked “Antiviral Information” Naturally I clicked on that and got a “This page cannot be displayed” Anybody else getting “Antiviral” information on their schools Web Sites? I just though that was pretty odd.
I remembered the Yancy County school closings as being Influenza B, and that is what I found when I did a quick search.
witness – at 19:25 And why the secrecy from the hospital?
Your hospital protects your personal info by not giving it out without legal permission. HIPPA is federally mandated. Check the local public records source, public records like death certificates are open records. That source can give you some info. The hospital may not.
mcjohnston92- 20:00
“We will just die from a “curiously virulent” seasonal strain…”
Or a mysterious disease.
I don’t think we can be “too paranoid” in these circumstances. TPTB want to avoid panic, financial crises, and remember—American readers—we are a country at war. We certainly don’t want to appear to be in a weakened condition to our enemies. Also, I think there’s a tremendous amount of ignorance and denial out there in the medical community. That’s why I pay more attention to the rumors thread than any other. I think we will find out much more from the grassroots level than from any higher source.
And, in the end, TPTB can say they tried to warn us with all their public service announcements about prepping.
If the NC (and other) flu outbreaks in the US had been H5N1, there would be some deaths by now - and that would be something that could not be kept quiet…..
Forgive me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t the initial outbreak in 1918 pretty mild? Wasn’t the second wave the killer one?
That said, I’m not sure the outbreaks in the American South are H5N1…I just feel it is a more virulent strain than we’ve seen and may be taking the flu one step closer to critical mass.
Nova – at 22:54
I don’t think we can be “too paranoid” in these circumstances. TPTB want to avoid panic, financial crises, and remember—American readers—we are a country at war. We certainly don’t want to appear to be in a weakened condition to our enemies. Also, I think there’s a tremendous amount of ignorance and denial out there in the medical community.
Ironic.
That sounds EXACTLY like a description of the geopolitical circumstances in 1918.
mcjohnston92 – at 20:01
The day after tomorrow…
Nope, the cases in NC and Tennessee were definitely identified as influenza.
Influenza B to be exact.
strange, but I am still wondering why a local emergency room doctor, practically jumped ‘down my throat’ when I asked about the flu being around here ( northeast). She quickly replied “ the is NO flu in the USA anywhere, and why would you want to know about “ flu” anyway ?, adding…Do you know anyone who has the flu right now ???…this was all spoken to me in a very urgent way. I was not being paranoid when I asked her about the flu, I was just wondering what she might say. I never expected her to react that way.
If I’m not mistaken recently (last 6 months or so) there was a new clause added to the Homeland Security Act that allows TPTB to decide what News could/would be permitted to be printed and/or aired on radio and TV. At the time this happened I felt like I now live in a country getting close to following the communisum. “Big Daddy” knows what is best for me, again don’t worry be happy. Based on the fact that we are a country at war it wouldn’t take much for that power to encourage the medical profession to be quiet about a medical situation. It will take a lot of dead bodies before the press will feel compelled to report without permission from “Big Daddy”.
No I’m not paranoid! Who is that secretly trying to follow me around?
mj- quilter1 – at 21:03
Death records sealed for 50 years in most states. It might even be a federal law.
Current records are only available to family members or others with reasonable reasons to view these records.
Therefore, you can not use recent death records to determine if there is an increase in deaths from flu.
Hi, y’all, I sit geographically between Yancy County, NC and Floyd County, GA, and I can tell you that the flu has filled in the gaps between here and there!! The whole family has been sick for over a week, and it does feel like you have been hit with a Mack truck. I feel SO SORRY for the people who have had H5N1, and I cringe as I imagine getting a flu that is worse than what we just had, considering the fact that DH and I both wanted to be shot just to relieve the lower back and muscle pain.
1 relapse apiece, and we’re finally on the road to recovery. Kids were fussy for like 2 days, but they never ran a fever.
MIL coordinates hospice care for NE Georgia area. According to her, doctors and hospitals are overrun with respiratory illnesses even worse than what they saw in Spring 2006 which she said was the worst she had seen in 24 years of hospice work. She’s not planning on SIP as all of her children are grown, her husband died 3 years ago, and she feels like she needs to keep working since she’s in charge. She doesn’t plan on seeing the grandkids after a certain threshold has been reached, and she’s planning on webcasts after the holiday season.
Snowy Tree at 7:37 - Well, that woke me up!
Snowy tree @ 7:37…..Last spring I was at the health dept for kids vaxs and I asked about bird flu and the nurse there told me I was silly for worrying about that and told me at least 3 times to calm down.I was perfectly calm. As a regular joe I can only imagine the panic invoked when healthcare people have to mearly think about this issue let alone try to answer peoples questions about it.This makes me want to panic myself but I learn and do instead.
I get so sick to death of the “Don’t worry, be happy” school of thought! I am not in a panic, but I’d feel like a fool were I not to be paying attention. My own doc has me pegged now as OCD concerning H5N1 - but at least he wrote the scripts for the anti-virals and antibiotics before he decided I was a nut case.
Here are some French dots. We’ve had the flu over here quite badly too and as I was on my third sleepless night with my 18 month old, I kept thinking, this is just a test run. According to an official flu tracking site I found on the new forum, there is no flu in France. But all the children have had it (I know from talks in the park and from what our pediatrician and pharmacists say) Now I’ve got it- it’s just awful. Anyway, my dots are these: For the first time ever since I’ve been living in France (21 years), I saw a doctor put on a mask to examine a patient (my daughter). All week at the local supermarkets, the Saint Vincent de Paul charity was collecting food for a food bank. And then Saturday, they aired a documentary (on a simulation exercise they ran) produced in part by the Ministry of health followed by a panel discussion with experts, and with the Minister of Health. His replies were very evasive as to whether or not BF was imminent, or whether France was prepared. When I think that they say that France is the best prepared country in Europe, I do not feel reassured! For anyone understanding French, the hour long documentary can be found here: http://www.france5.fr/cdanslair/index.cfm At the bottom of the page is a section called “videos de la semaine” and it’s the video marked “spécial grippe aviaire”. Sorry I don’t know how to do the tinyurl thing… I wasn’t sure whether this should be in news, or not?
Oh I want to point out I didn’t mean hcw at this site in my above comments,I meant the ones who won’t come here.Heres a few more dots I guess…..
A week before Thanksgiving I got a note home from school(I was told it was given to all the free and reduced lunch people,We get reduced)inviting my family to participate in a food give away.I went and brought one of my kids along.They gave out a couple of boxes of food per family.While I was waiting they announced that they were giving flu shots to people with their medicaid or medicare cards.I had neither but had not yet got my jab so I went to the room where they were doing it and asked if they would take regular insurance.They said no ,but it was their goal to jab everyone there,Get in line with my kid and get one for free(maybe the church who sponsered the whole thing paid,I don’t know)This is the first time anything has been offered like this that I know of and we have been on reduced lunch for many years.
Sorry, just followed the link I gave in the last message and it took me to the discussion panel. Here is a link to both the documentary and to the discussion that followed. Over two hours of TV time allotted on a government run station. Hmmm http://www.france5.fr/cdanslair/007983/0/
Yesterday I took myself to our family dotor for the respirary thing everyone seems to have. My gs, dh and every kid at gs pre-school has it.
The doctor made comment that he has seen many people with this thing the last few days. I joked that it could be Whooping Cough or BF (in the exam room). He very seriously told me to be careful or rumors would get started.
I have know this doctor for years and I fully expected him to give me the old, “don’t worry, be happy” routine. He is the kind of doctor to do that. The fact that he didn’t and he looked worried himself made me a bit uneasy.
Bon…that is exactly the look that the E.R doctor gave me
Yet these doctors aren’t warning their patients to prepare!
“first do no harm” - listening to bureaucrats and playing “hush-hush” may in this case be doing permanent harm…
Yes, I have thought for a long while that we could have the “ingredients” for a Pandemic or the first mild wave of one without knowing.
And I do not think it even has to be officially suppressed. I think people will just overlook, ignore, “look on the bright side,” keep on keeping on….
Only one component of this is that even though we are a heavily populated country, there are still vast spaces in the mid-west and northern part of the country (the Dakota’s for instance) where a serious flu could pass through with not a lot of notice. Especially, when no or little note is taken in more populous areas.
Add in just a dash of conspiracy and we don’t know until it is upon us.
I am really glad to see that others have picked up on some of the same dots that I have been seeing/sensing in the last few weeks.
One thing that no one else has commented on here is my musing that it might not be all that difficult to hide h5n1--you wouldn’t need to control very many people to flub up the production of h5n1 tests, or to replace test kits with inert ones, or to divert swabs before they reach the laboratory and replace them with dummies. I doubt that there are even 5 independent labs that can do the kind of tests that will reliably find h5n1 if it is present in a sample. One other difficulty is that I read somewhere (here on wiki maybe) that the vast majority of ultimately h5n1 positive tests were originally swabbed and showed “negative” with the simple test—only the (help here with the science, anyone…) PCR test (the one requiring a sophisticated lab) or something was actually reliably accurate.
One other thing—remember that we do expect some deaths from flu like illness every year in the US. I don’t think it would be all that difficult for tptb to convince grieving families that their loved ones were killed by the regular flu. If it is only a few (at first) per community, it wouldn’t even necessarily make the news.
And, by the way—the dead bus driver really freaks me out—we need to be very, very vigilant now, because the news won’t be trumpeted—it will just seep out between the cracks and we will have to put the dots together ourselves.
This map shows the seasonal flu-lots of it in the southeast US. Let’s hope they keep up the monitoring and reporting.
I’ve been looking for foreign countries that have embassies in America to post a similar warning to the warden message (SIP for up to 12 weeks). It would make for a powerful argument for prepping if another country was saying to prep for up to 12 weeks if you live in the U.S. If anyone finds anything like that - please post. Thanks
Jane at 18:36 - Have you seen this site? I think its reporting is more current. And, if you double click on any particular state it will even tell you, by zip code, the level of flu activity:
Read between the LINES!!!!!!The Docs may have been told to play it down to avoid a panic….So,maybe They’re trying to communicate to you indirectly thru their overreactions and bazzare responses when asked about BF…..My Sis was on a flight out of DC about 6mos ago..Struck up a conversation with the fellow in the next seat; an academic who worked at a Gov agency..She asked about BF…He said the Gov is REALLY worried, felt it could sink the economy…….
Basically, New Zealand says citizens are on their own. NZ doesn’t have Tamilflu for travelers and cannot help them return to NZ is borders are closed after pandemic starts. Elsewhere they advise a 72-hour bug-out bag.
Lots of conpiracy theories. The problem with them is I doubt that TPTB have gotten their act together enough to implement a cover up. If a school closes because of some flu and then doesn’t show up in the news for a few days, it’s probably because there’s no news there. I also think that if policy makers told doctors not to say anything, they would do their best to sing loud and proud.
The New Rumours Diary on the new site has just had this posted:
possible human H5N1 case in quebec
This is a part of an email I just got from a trusted source. It is unconfirmed, and I can’t cite the source, but I think it belongs on this thread as a heads up. there are unconfirmed reports of High Path H5N1 in Quebec City Canada’s Rimouski hospital. The case is a 9 year old with pneumonia, not on a ventilator (yet) and his parents that are conveniently isolated and havent been told of their childs condition other than he is one sick monkey. The infection vector MIGHT be thru Bonaventure Island which is a national sea and migratory waterfowl reserve. Nothing else is known at this time.
If you want to follow the conversation over there then this link will take you there
Isn’t Bonaventure Island near Prince Edward Island?
This is from Wikipedia
Bonaventure Island (officially île Bonaventure) is a Canadian island located 3.5 km off the southern coast of Quebec’s Gaspé Peninsula, 5 km southwest of the village of Percé. Roughly circular in shape, it has an area measuring 4.16 km².
I’m so stupid. I went to the new forum to read but was unable to figure out how to go to the next posts after I read the first page. Please help me.
Econ101 - Thank you. Now I know it’s not just me.
Don’t worry Suzi DemCT always comes to the rescue; with great patience I might add…….thx Dem
Econ 101 and Suzi
If I assume you followed the link above …
Once you read the comments that show, at the bottom of all the comments is a line that looks like this:
New Rumors XIV : 73 comments : Post A Comment
The Words on the left (New Rumours XIV) is the name of the Diary. If you click on that, it will display the entire diary with all the comments posted to it.
If you entered the site another way, please let me know and I can tell you how to find your way around
Cheers
thx AnnieB.didn’t mean to exclude you when I mentioned DemCT.All you people are just great.
Thank you, AnnieB … that worked!
We accept DemCT as the ‘royal we’ as the saying goes … or as the call to any and all who might be able to help. So pleased that worked for you.
(My ‘signature’ on the new site is “I’m from Head Office and I am here to help …” - I have actually spent too many years being in HO and wanting to help and people having a negative attitude before you start that I really want to give the saying a new image! )
I have a new doctor who seems to be of east Indian descent. After my exam and some friendly banter, I made a comment about wait till BF hit. He got a worried look, stared at the floor and said quietly “yeah, we’re screwed.”
Not quite what I expected, but I thanked him for his honesty. I asked about antivirls and he assured me that they cannot be had at this point and that they wouldn’t work anyhow.
I am going back for tests on Friday. I’ll see what else I can get him to admit. I like his style. My old doctor, from Romania (sp?) simply assured me that the government would dispense vaccine and I didn’t need to worry about it and therefore didn’t need advance medications. She acted like I was an idiot for asking. I fired her after having gone there 16 years.
Annie B… any more info on this rumor?
All thoroughbred and non-pedigreed hens and chickens in my coop have been told that a round-up will take place next week. It seems the main cackles will be simply to the tune of general information about ways to prevent getting wet if a light rain were to fall on the roof of the coop. It is not known whether there will be whistles about a possible future hail breaking loose, though this is doubtful. Neither is it known whether the head farmer and his top fighting cocks will advise about water and grain storage, heat conservation measures, or such other precautions that may be needed in case of strong hurricanes. This poultry exercise may well turn out as a “don’t stress the birds, no worms to pick, time to hobble along” message.
I posted this a couple weeks ago but I think it posted after Dem had closed and continued the thread and it didn’t carry over. So, I am just going to repeat it. A psychiatrist friend of mine went to a medical conference recently and one of the main topics was panflu and the recommendations were made to stockpile supplies for a SIP event. I think he said three months worth, but I was so shocked by his revelation I didn’t retain the details. That was before all the hoopla surrounding the State Dept. warnings being 2 or 12 weeks, etc. I will be seeing him later this week and will try to remember to inquire. It’s amusing because—until that medical conference—he viewed my prepping with the psychiatrist’s concern of potential obsessive/compulsive behavior on my part! Now he takes me oh so seriously.
Well, we had a (unconfirmed at this point) probable case of Whooping Cough at my college in NC (Winston-Salem, Greensboro area)and many people also sick here with a weird respiratory “cold”. I got it, so did my spouse. (Fortunately my son did not). Strange because it felt just like the flu but without a real fever. I still have a deep cough lingering from it, though I am not sick otherwise. We were pretty sick for about 5 days before Thanksgiving.
Spirit in the Wind-Hi,talked to local pharmacist other day and there is no problem getting tamiflu at her store or thru her distributor. They had 600 boxes avail. on line to ship. Hope this clarifies avail. questions and where problem may lie. Take care and best wishes to all.
Hello Milt
Where in upstate N.Y. are you? I’m near Clayton.
Re: Quebec rumor. Just went over to the new site and read all the comments posted after the one from Mary in Hawaii. Am I understanding that it is not HP H5N1, but is another disease entirely?
And can someone translate ADuckOrangeMercurey for me. I’m new to “the code.” thanks.
cottontop at 09:37 - There’s a rough translation:
There’s to be a bird flu information meeting at ADuckOrangeMercurey’s place of work. It is thought that only main general information will be imparted for the health of its staff, if a mild pandemic were to happen. It is unknown whether hints will be made about TSHTF, but this is unlikely. It is unknown whether the top management will make recommendations to prep food, water and other items in case TSHTF. This information meeting looks more like a “do not panick, there’s nothing to see, move along”
[Translator’s remark] - I think it is interesting to note that such a meeting is now taking place, at long last, even though it does not look like major information will be provided - still, it’s a start for a Geneva intergovernmental organisation, and it is hoped more in-depth information will follow in 2007, or, hopefully, before then if circumstances warrant it.
I live in Seattle. The pharmacist within a mile of where I live has told me they have Tamiflu stockpiled. All they need is a prescription for it. No questions asked.
Thanks for the translation, FrenchieGirl- thats what I thought he was saying but wasn’t sure. While I’m at it I want to thank you for ALL your postings! You allways provide good info and interesting insight-Thanks so much.
FrenchieGirl-
My thanks too. All of this BF news just keeps getting weirder and weirder, like a dam that’s about to break.
Cottontop- thats MY feeling exactly! It seems I get somewhat of a handle on one piece of news then get smacked with something else.
I feel that I hear a piece of news and I think “OH! this must be it!” And then its not. And then Theres more news thats much worse than the previous news and I think- “Oh this must surly be “it” and then its not. Its a weird disconnect becouse on the WIKI theres all this bad news and I google it or look it up and yep, there it is, in pieces in different places on the net, but in my “real” life theres nothing. It makes me feel very very strange.
The info. about the sick child in Quebec is on Niman’s Recombinomics site as well.
Re: Aduckorangemercury’s meeting. Why would they hold a meeting like this, essentially saying nothing? A CYA type situation?
I’d think CYA is one possibility. The other is to prepare staff for future events, just like other places of work elsewhere. There might also have been much questions from the staff to management and this is the answer. Or, the meeting’s just the tip of the iceberg in this employer’s information gathering. Staff meeting is public, the outcome of connected research may not be… Now, we’ve been repeatedly asking that enterprises start making plans, inform their staff, and this place looks like it’s started on the good road, let’s not condemn it right-away
lohrewok — 29 November 2006, 10:38 Re: Aduckorangemercury’s meeting. Why would they hold a meeting like this, essentially saying nothing? A CYA type situation?
Why? Think about it. If they really haven’t said anything up to this point, then this meeting to “say nothing” says something.
Edna Mode - I couldn’t have said it better! But all the reasons I listed stand, too.
Any knowledge of an unknown disease in Jakarta? Someone in Jakarta just came to my blog with that phrase for November.
ADuckOrangeMercurey? — 29 November 2006, 08:38 All thoroughbred and non-pedigreed hens and chickens in my coop have been told that a round-up will take place next week.
I think it’s called.
“Breaking the Ice” so that the followup information doesn’t elicit as much of an adjustment reaction.
Just saw this piece on an ABC segment by Brian Ross. Thought I would post it here:
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=1720915
Argyll.
Argyll @ 16:57 -
At least the news media is starting to give the average citizen a “heads up” that the “bird flu” will eventually be here. This was a mild warning…not real scary. At least this is a start.
Education re 1. consequences for humans, 2. prepping, 3. TLC and will come next.
could anyone summarize the key point(s) of the video? I could see it but coudn’t get the text.
Well, I can try to guess what the key point was. “That bird flu thing, ha ha? It might actually happen for real. Someday. But no one knows when or how bad. You might want to stop laughing tho-“
Am I close?
Average Concerened Mom—
Here is the link with the news story. Hope you find this helpful.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2006/11/avian_flu_still.html
Argyll.
The RSOE Havaria site doesn’t have a blinking chicken on Indonesia anymore. Wonder why? Their 57th victim died this week. RSOE
maybe the chicken light bulb burnt out-over worked.
It looks like the US commercial chicken companies are preparing to talk outloud about BF: http://www.fosterfarms.com/faq/ai.asp
They have an FAQ and an explination of what BF is and how they are protecting their chickens, stating that it is safe to eat their product..etc.
crsrs31? — 29 November 2006, 23:46 thanks for the link!
Thanks guys. I called my pharmacy today. None on the shelf here, but expecting a delivery in 10 days. I’ll ask for a prescription.
spirit in the wind@ 30 Nov. 23:31 I hope you are able to get that prescription. My MD. wouldn’t give me a scrip. for it, as he said Govt. is stockpiling it. period. He also said heavy duty painkillers will not be given out either as stockpiling those as well.
That’s the first I’ve heard about no painkillers being prescribed. I wonder just how much of that type drug is being stockpiled, and where, and by whom . . .
Clawdia..I heard it was being stockpiled by Govt. For dying patients…during pandemic.
Clawdia, not all painkillers…just the heavy duty ones.
Snowy Tree. I got the perscription, now I just have to wait a week to 10 days for my pharmacy to have it on the shelf.
I had read on this board somewhere way back when to stockpile pain meds, so when I hurt my back, I saved about 30 of them just in case. I understand the body aches are hell. I sincerely doubt I could get a script for those unless I am injured, so I decide to white knuckle it in order to save back a few for my family.
Yes, we have a few vicodin saved from when my husband broke his wrist a couple of years ago. We seem to get about the same pain relief from Naproxen sodium, the generic form of Naprosyn, as we do from vicodin. Naproxen was prescription until a few years ago. It really does a very good job. Unfortunately, I can’t use it very often because it affects my esophagus when used too frequently. I’m making sure I have plenty of it in case of pandemic, though.
When pain is not too bad, I try to use ibuprofen, the generic form of Motrin instead, since this doesn’t bother me as much.
Hi everyone, My first post in awhile. I read the dispute about the boy in a Vancouver hospital and well I found an article that doesn’t mention a nine year old boy, but it does mention an increase in unusual pneunmonia cases in Vancouver. Forgive if this is already in the newsthread, I have to go to work soon. I think it vindicates MIH’s post.
Vancouver is on the west coast. The rumor was about a boy in hospital in Quebec which is in eastern Canada, at least 2,000 miles away from Vancouver.
“Irene — 02 December 2006, 14:01 Vancouver is on the west coast. The rumor was about a boy in hospital in Quebec which is in eastern Canada, at least 2,000 miles away from Vancouver.”
Yeah, and then some more than that. This country is huge.
TV show on tonight at 7pm central and again at 9 I believe about the great plague. Don’t know if its a repeat or not-said it was made in 2006. On discovery health.
How was it? I missed it.
Monotreme blog alludes to fluwiki run by CIA
My comments are on the new forum - just to make sure that we don’t have impersonation.
I am really getting sick of this smear campaign. Who is best organized to do this? I am wondering if someone wants to destroy this forum.
I am really getting sick of this smear campaign. Who is best organized to do this? I am wondering if someone wants to destroy this forum.
This will be interesting to watch as it plays out.
Ya definitely got somebody’s attention.
Speaking of smear campaigns…
Monotreme’s blog references a NY Times article as the source.
It’s also referenced by URL in the forum at:
Bird guano — 04 December 2006, 13:18
For all I know, you may not even be the real Bird guano. You can still deny you said this if you don’t copy the posts to the new forum.
I am really getting sick of this smear campaign.
1. I don’t see a smear campaign.
2. We have zero interest in a board war. Just sayin’.
There isn’t any board war.
He was talking about a flippin NY Times Article, not making an accusation.
Take a chill pill people.
And yes, I’m also tired of having the “new board” crammed down my throat while we are at it.
3. The identity of the mysterious wiki has been revealed.
pogge — 04 December 2006, 13:54 3. The identity of the mysterious wiki has been revealed.
Thanks.
And this is a PRIME example of yet another problem with second-hand rumors.
Bird guano — 04 December 2006, 13:53
Monotreme blog
The NYC article is what it is. It didn’t mention fluwiki by name. The fluwiki name came up in Monotreme’s blog.
Who started, condoned, if not encouraged this rumor? What was the motive?
We can all decide for ourselves whether this discussion constitutes a smear.
Well this confirms my suspicions. Several weeks ago I went on a short vacation, only to come home and find everything in my house gone, and replaced with an exact replica.
And now all this.
Now I’m thinking, am I really me?
lol@JWB
this is what Dem had to say
Judging from the ‘congratulations on the Times story’ emails we’re getting, a few from official sources, it could be that we’re not the only ones confused about what the Times was referring to. If there’s another wiki out there tracking bird flu, we’re not aware of it. But it sure is a good idea. ;-)
So, there were lots of folk wondering. I was among them, as I had no idea when FW was started.
Anon YYZ are you trying to stir up s***, or just really,really PO`d at Mono ?
I think we need all and every flu wiki,board,lookout that we can get. To bad the virus seems illiterate.
pogge, I`m so sorry. I really am trying to remember NOT to indent. Obviously not too well, I might add.
cactus — 04 December 2006, 15:32
Anon YYZ are you trying to stir up s***, or just really,really PO`d at Mono ?
I consider this closed. However, since you suggest something about me which is untrue or irrelevant, I have to respond.
I am consistent. Won’t take BS from any one. Despise back stabbing. Simple as that. I hope that we all come here for the truth. Knowingly or not, you are deflecting attention from the issue to my character, which every one else can judge with or without your innuendo - they don’t really need your help.
For clarity of what I abhor, read Fortune Tellers Witch Doctors and Alchemists thread, written months ago.
I think we need all and every flu wiki,board,lookout that we can get. To bad the virus seems illiterate.
I think more boards are better, so we don’t have one group think. The action of some, however, does not indicate this thinking. You have to ask yourself who is stirring up the s***.
I going to try to extract a lesson from this thread for myself and my young daughter.
I guess I’ll copy it to my hard drive.
Then when we have full blown panflu, and the lights go out for the last and final time, and the screams of neighbors start in the dead of night over another dead child, we will read it and wonder how even the people ‘in the know’ behaved right up to DAY 1.
sigh
goodnight
P.S.
Including my behavior.
Ok ANON-YYZ, you harshly accuse Monotreme of a smear campaign, what about you doing the same of Niman? You despise backstabbing, what about you doing it to Niman? As for coming here for the truth, what true information have you contributed here about the flu? It seems to me that all you do is critisize others, find fault, and complain. I for one am going to stop reading your posts.
Tink,
You are so right on.
pogge — 04 December 2006, 13:52
Thanks. You are the voice of sanity, as always.
ANON-YYZ at, well everywhere. My blog has a comment feature. If you want to communicate your opinion about my blog or clarify anything I say that bothers you, may I suggest that you do so where I will be sure to see it?
As regard Board wars and Smear campaigns, perhaps you might want to read the About this site information that was up from day one of PFI.
Tink? — 04 December 2006, 20:39
Niman in its various disguises are flooding flu boards including this forum, in my face. I merely debunk the junk. You can’t call that back stabbing. I certainly don’t make anything up. He has been well represented by the likes of people who have vested interest, who worship Niman and those who change handles to disrupt. If you think you can convince other readers to stop reading my posts, you are miserably wrong. To each its own.
I am not a scientist, just a prepper. Don’t expect me to contribute hard science. Interestingly, it doesn’t take a scientist to debunk Niman. That must hurt. You guys in the Niman camp can’t respond to my questions (as well as other questions on other flu boards). Your only tool is attack the messenger. I do contribute a little here or there, as a prepper. If you don’t see that, it’s because you are too busy attacking personalities, not debating logic.
One way the cultists recruit victims is by way of running classes and sermons. If one repeats it often enough, even without an argument, some one will cave in and buy the junk or invest their money. No, I won’t be suckered into that. It’s also known as brainwashing.
I am doing citizen’s duty. Don’t BS in my neighborhood.
Monotreme — 04 December 2006, 20:56
ANON-YYZ at, well everywhere.
Can you please clarify what you mean by that? You have recently stated on your board that there are people who use multiple handles to post on multiple boards. I only use this handle here, and anon.yyz on the new fluwikie forum. Does that make me everywhere?
ANON-YYZ,
I meant that you had many posts on the subject of my blog, none however, at the blog itself. Although I appreciate that you are a loyal reader ;-)
Monotreme — 04 December 2006, 21:30
Help me out. I read some of your blog, PFIFORUM, CE, FT, EM and post only on fluwikie. This post has been the only direct reference to your blog, in which I found the innuendo ridiculous in the first few posts in the discussions. I otherwise only remember asking Maryinhawaii to check out her name being discussed on your blog. Did I forget something?
I don’t care what Scared Cat has to say. He’s not a moderator, and you can only do so much.
What I do feel objectionable is a post from one of your moderators on the PFIFORUM (not your blog, and please don’t get into technically s/he’s a moderator), even after janetn posted a clarification that fluwikie is not the one named, Science Teacher made a more than veiled allusion:
Science Teacher
janetn, thanks for the followup! You said: “So no spooks at the wiki”.
I would add, “no spooks that we know about (yet).’ : )
Monday, December 4, 2006 - 12:35 PM
Let’s just say this is a misunderstanding. I would ask your blog to clarify reasonably prominently in a headline or something to the effect that there is no reason to believe the rumor is justified - choose whatever language you see fit. Since I followed the link from PFIFORUM, I would ask PFIFORUM to do the same.
I don’t know if you realize how much damage was done.
ANON-YYZ, everyone is entitled to their opinion, including you. I don’t think I follow your complicated path regarding the rumor, but the first one to note the similarities between the CIA site and FW was DemFromCT. In any case, anyone who posts on the PFI mainsite or forum is free to express their opinion. I will never issue a retraction of someone else’s opinion.
As regards Science Teacher’s post, I suspect that either you are not able to read emoticons or that you have no sense of humor.
btw, I sent DemFromCT a link to my blog within about 2 minutes of posting it. No word yet from him of about the “damage”. Please also see pogge at 04 December 2006, 13:52.
Anyways, I think this is enough on this subject for me.
Don’t BS in my neighborhood.
Your neighbourhood? If you were elected sheriff, I missed the memo.
If you want to take issue with something said at another board, you’re perfectly free to do it at that board. But I’ve suggested that I’d rather you not drag it back here and you don’t seem to be listening.
As far as I’m concerned you’re doing more damage here than anyone else. I’d suggest you cool down.
Edited ‘cos I mis-spelled sheriff. We don’t elect ‘em up here so I don’t think about the word very often.
There’s been no damage. I posted both at our new Forum and (because it involved Flu Wiki) at PFI everything I knew about the matter, with links.
End of story. I do think, however, it’s fascinating that a blog/wiki parallel effort exists by the Feds. They must see benefit in our approach. ;-)
Pathetic. Why are we attacking each other? We are the good guys. If we start becoming paranoid and suspicious of each other, we have lost the battle and the damage you most fear is done. As Pogo said….
So what if CIA, Interpol, FBI, MI5, Mossad, MIB or GWB reads our posts? Fabulous. That just means they finally are getting real intelligence. What we discuss here hardly qualifies as top secret, inflammatory or anything else. So stop worrying about it and get back to worrying about the flu. Please
I wondered how long it would take…
Who’s Pogo? ;-)
The Pog-ster, the Pog-inator, Pog-a-palooza. The Pogge meister!
Mary in Hawaii? — 04 December 2006, 23:15 Pathetic. Why are we attacking each other? We are the good guys. If we start becoming paranoid and suspicious of each other, we have lost the battle and the damage you most fear is done. As Pogo said….
So what if CIA, Interpol, FBI, MI5, Mossad, MIB or GWB reads our posts? Fabulous. That just means they finally are getting real intelligence. What we discuss here hardly qualifies as top secret, inflammatory or anything else. So stop worrying about it and get back to worrying about the flu. Please
Lets do what Mary suggest ok. Pogge Me thinks you have a new nickname :-)
You can call me all of those. Just don’t call me late for lunch.
lol/ quoth pogo “we have met the enemy, and he is us” unquoth the pog-meister.
Walt Kelly’s “Pogo” website. Used to be one of my favorite comic strips in the Sunday funny papers…
Back to flu watching.. Michelle in OK has posted her latest here
Well, that was fun reading. sheech…..I was hoping to finally get a gov’t paycheck once I found out we were working for the CIA. Guess I’ll go back to clipping coupons to generate income.
pogge — 05 December 2006, 00:05
You can call me all of those. Just don’t call me late for lunch.
Even if it’s freeze-dry chicken-ala-king ?
<grin>
Temper, temper, temper.
Think I will head over to conspiracyboards.com to hang out with the grownups—
Just kidding. Really. Y’all want to borrow some liquor and guns?