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Forum: Bird Flu and Global Warming

Mary in Hawaii?04 December 2006, 11:42

frozen viruses I just came across this most interesting article regarding the fact that researchers have discovered viruses can remain frozen and viable for years in lakes in northern climes, and are looking at that as a possible source of reinfection of birds with old influenza strains. Here’s the link: http://www.antara.co…

One stray thought on this: recent research into global warming suggests that the permafrost is melting rapidly. The research was regarding the effect of the large amounts of methane released as the permafrost melts adding to the greenhouse effect and causing more melting, in a positive feedback loop. But if you tie that information to the above study showing that as the ice melts it may release intact viruses to create new/resurgent diseases…hmmm. Not to mention the increase in mosquito vector breeding grounds.) Might be worthy of investigation???


by: maryinhawaii @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 02:13:36 AM EST [ Reply ]

Mary in Hawaii?04 December 2006, 11:44

That link didn’t work. Try this

http://www.antara.co.id/en/seenws/?id=24146

Sailor04 December 2006, 12:10

Thanks Mary I also found this interesting in that all of the water birds that are presently suspected of being carriers of H5N1 may also start carrying new viruses from past ages that are now thawing out of the ice caps. To me this is just one more reason to prepare for what ever may come, it may not be H5N1 but some other lethal virus from the worlds past history.

Mary in Hawaii?04 December 2006, 12:31

It also allows for a mixing of genes from these ancient viruses with new ones, creating whole new varieties that none of us alive today have any immunity to. shudder.

A former Lurker04 December 2006, 15:27

Can’t help but to admire the irony…our own scientists having recently dug out/ thawed out the 1918 virus to study it.

Mary in Hawaii?06 December 2006, 00:13

This was an interesting reply I got over on the new wiki. It also finally made it on to the news thread there.

yes, it can very well occur I have a friend who is a senior meteologist and he holds firmly this belief that Homo sapiens will become extinct in less than 1000 years. The major reason he cites is the release of biological agents from permafrost or other ‘dormant’ states that we have no immunity to. This notion is not as far-fetched as it seems, because the evolution and adaptation of our immune system is a very slow process, taking place over many millenia. If this rate was comparable to the rate of change of the external environment, then our immune system can more-or-less cope with those changes. Individuals or specific ethnic groups might succumb, but as a species there will be enough of us left over.

However, since the Industrial Revolution, the speed of change has shot up exponentially. Let’s take the use of chemicals as an example. If we look at the huge number of chemicals in our lives now, these did not exist 100 years ago. We are creating toxic substances much faster than our immune system can evolve to adapt to them.

The same thing is happening with climate change. Even though the increase of a few degrees may not seem a lot, its effect on weather patterns and thus the ecology of living organisms is huge. We do not know enough to be able to even know what changes we are looking for.

This scientist says that we don’t really need viruses from permafrost to cause the problem, as a small change in habitat can have major impact on many species, so that viruses that were either ‘dormant’ or symbiotic can suddenly become pathogenic. These viruses may not even be related to those that we have been exposed to. Entirely new classes can arise in this way.

Finally, such changes are likely to be threshold events, and may not bear a linear relationship to the degree of global warming.

you gotta work the numbers


by: SusanC @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 23:21:19 PM EST

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