From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Canadian Preppers 3

13 September 2006

Bronco Bill – at 16:14

A new start. Thread continued from here

Ottawa Guy – at 17:41

Thanks Bronco Bill, I love the smell of fresh thread!

I’m back from a day at the office and I’m still a little befuddled by what transpired last evening. I’m glad we can put that behind us and move forward.

Today was just like any day at work. Bird flu came up as a subject today. My panplan has to go to exec committee and I had a question for my legal advisor about “authorities” from which I can act during a pandemic. Specifically, the privacy issues that arise from my role as influenza manager and from restricting access to the office. It would seem that these authorities exist. He did a nice job of providing me with a grid that on one side describes the issue and on the other describes where my authority to act comes from. That will prove useful when I consult with the unions.

My office is chock full of PhDs, specilists, and the talent I can draw from is virtually limitless. I know of 2 epidemeologists in my office and 2 specialists in infectious disease and too many statisticians to count. Their talents will be used when we form our “working group”. Who knows, maybe even the entomologist might prove useful. And Tom DVM, we even have a vet.

Though I have my infection control materials for hard surfaces at the ready (various soap/detergent concoctions), I’m thinking more and more of bleach. I have been hesitant because, well, bleach stinks and we have a scent policy in the office as many claim to have scent sensitivities (I can’t recall the last time I smelled cologne at the office). But then, I think, by the time we get to disinfecting with bleach, the office will be pretty barren as most will be working from home, sick or taking care of family. There won’t be many left to complain and, of those, I’m thinking they will likely support using bleach. If some do complain, I’ll be ready as I’ll get my legal guy to find me some more authorities. hehe.

I spoke to a building representative today and am trying to light the fire under him. He’s new to his job and this bird flu thing gets thrown in his lap. I can help him so far but he has other more unique problems with his plan: a commercial level and public access to the building. Oh, and that thing called facilites management. I told him, if nothing else, get a supply of N95s, a good supply of hand sanitizer and start pushing good hygiene with staff (wash those hands and wash them frequently, sneeze in your sleave, etc.). Plans are handy but WTSHTF, circumstances don’t always cooperate with assumptions. Keep them healthy, keep them working.

I got a call this afternoon from a nursing org that I’ve retained to give staff the seasonal flu shot. Seems that the vaccine will not be ready until early December! Not good news if your goal is 70% participation in the vaccination program. When you are served lemons…reschedule, lol.

So people, how was your day?

Tom DVM – at 17:57

“When you are served lemons…reschedule, lol.”

Ottawa guy. How do you think vaccine production will go under pandemic conditions.

I’m going to have to take a real long look at you when we meet…sounds like you work at Health Canada and that is one of the agencies I was talking about….

…either way good to know you and glad you’re still here.

/:0)!!!!!!

Ottawa Guy – at 18:23

As you can appreciate, vaccine production is difficult under the best conditions. I understand the problem was with “brewing” this year’s H3N2 variant. Under pandemic conditions, I’m sure it will be FUBAR.

No, I’m not with Health Canada, nor Agriculture Canada. I can’t tell you more than that. Trust me, our paths have never met, even via a third party.

Tom DVM – at 18:31

/:0)

Ottawa Guy – at 18:38

The specialists at the office act as consultants, not clinicians or researchers.

DennisCat 18:44

Tom DVM ,Ottawa Guy sorry if this is off topic, but about making vaccines. Will there be any impact on the vaccine production should there be a culling of chickens and eggs? How will it be done if there are no eggs to be had?

Tom DVM – at 18:51

DennisC. Ottawa guy will probably have an opinion of this as well.

Well, you probably no my opinion on the efficacy of the existing vaccines made with at best antiquated technology.

They have techniques to get around this…I think they remove a small part of the virus that prevents the death of eggs but doesn’t affect the replication of the virus…I’m really not an expert on this aspect of it.

I don’t want and won’t be taking their damned vaccine under any circumstances…and they will only have 200 million doses at the 8 month mark of the pandemic for a world population of 6.5 billion…

…but I don’t think they are even going to have that much…the pressure will be enormous…making vaccine while your family and friends and co-workers fall around you…bodies piling up in some temporary morgue somewhere…unfortunately, that kind of pressure produces mistakes…that is why so many persons in was die of ‘friendly fire’.

Honestly, I try not to go into things too deeply.

Hope that helps Dennis. If it doesn’t just ask me another question.

DennisCat 18:54

it is not the virus killing the eggs that I was thinking about. It is the availablity of the eggs if most of the chickens are dead and we need 100′s of millions of doses.

Who is going to go out to the hen house and look for eggs?

Tom DVM – at 19:02

Okay, I see now. Well, that is a good question. I’m not sure what the official CFR is for poultry.

We are worrying about catching the disease from poultry but few remember that zoonosis goes both ways…we catch it from animals…animals catch it from us.

As I understand it…before 1918, there were no reports of influenza in Swine…the 1918 pandemic virus actually worked in reverse, the pigs caught it from us…and that conclusion was determined a long time ago before Dr. Taunanburger came to his conclusion that H1N1 1918 was a pure avian virus with no interaction with pigs.

Therefore, I assume in a pandmeic we get it from animals and we give it to animals including pigs and chickens.

I believe you asked the question since you have come to your own conclusions which are correct…but they probably are going to try and grow these chickens and eggs under very tight Biosecurity precautions to prevent the death of chickens or their eggs for this particular application…

…however, coming to the party after the damage is done with 200 million doses means we already know it is pretty much useless.

They don’t have to worry about me and my family…we’ll take our chances with the virus.

DennisCat 19:08

I can see it now, men in space suits, going through the barnyards looking for eggs when all the chickens are dead or culled. I know they have “culled” millions of chickens in INDO. and Vet. You got to have chickens to have eggs.

To my knowledge there are no large level 4 chicken coops.

I am with you on the vaccine. I don’t think I will be getting a shot- at least not till the “peaks” are long passed.

My bottom line is: don’t expect many eggs from culled chickens.

DennisCat 19:09

I will now try to stop hijacking the thread- sorry.

Tom DVM – at 19:12

DennisC. I’m sure the company that makes the vaccine has back up plans for the back up plans to make damn sure those chickens don’t die…from the companies point of view…there is an awful lot of money riding on those chickens…the problem is that there is no better terrorist then nature when it works against you…I have seen it…it is astonishing.

So it comes down to ‘the best laid plans’…it is going to be quite an accomplishment to pull it off in a full fledged pandemic worse than 1918…personally, I don’t think they can do it…and if they are going to produce bad vaccine…maybe that is the best thing in the end.

Thanks Dennis for the question…I think I will come down and live on your mountain with you. /:0)

ANON-YYZ – at 19:39

Canada is not sufficiently prepared:

http://tinyurl.com/jp6h4

http://tinyurl.com/j97v5

This is where Canadians traditionally look for hope:

http://tinyurl.com/zxwc9

Hope > Plan > Action > Outcome

Special project needed: inter-government unified pandemic preparation and response.

The devil, as usual, is in the details.

However, grass roots awareness is low, and hygiene and social distancing need to be practiced and drilled – and only with reasonable personal stockpile of disinfectant, masks, food and water etc. Canadian government has not encouraged its population to prepare. So far mitigation seems to be planned around Tamiflu, surgical masks, and vaccine capacity. I have not seen news about mitigation outside of Health sector of the economy.

If the population is not prepared, we may end up with a well fortified government operation that will be too large for its citizens and its economy to carry after a pandemic.

One issue in the last election debate was the growth in Health Canada bureaucracy relative to the size of resources ‘on the ground’. Should population and/or economy shrink due to pandemic, consideration may be needed to downsize the City of Ottawa, as well as provincial and municipal governments.

Klatu – at 19:56

A point of clarification regarding the discussion around vaccines. Are you folks referrring to only one vaccine, or would there be more needed for the various Clades and sub-Clades?

Klatu – at 19:57

A point of clarification regarding the discussion around vaccines. Are you folks referring to only one vaccine, or would there be more needed for the various Clades and sub-Clades?

ANON-YYZ – at 20:05

May I suggest moving the vaccine discussion to the vaccine thread?

Ottawa Guy – at 20:11

If a vaccine is available, I’ll likely be somewhere at the front of the queue. I’m not sure I want to be a guinea pig for that experiment.

Klatu – at 20:18

Ottawa Guy – at 20:11 wrote:

If a vaccine is available, I’ll likely be somewhere at the front of the queue. I’m not sure I want to be a guinea pig for that experiment.


‘nuff said.

Ottawa Guy – at 20:18

Anybody here involved in pandemic preparedness in an official capacity?

Ottawa Guy – at 20:59

ANON-YYZ – at 19:39

“…Should population and/or economy shrink due to pandemic, consideration may be needed to downsize the City of Ottawa, as well as provincial and municipal governments.”

YYZ, that is the call letters to Pearson International Airport? You are from Toronto? Suggesting that herd should be culled in Ottawa as chickens are culled in Indonesia? Good gawd, the extremes Torontonians will go to try to beat the Ottawa Senators.

Go Sens Go!!!!!

ANON-YYZ – at 21:19

Ottawa Guy – at 20:59

Oops, that was really silly. I keep thinking the City of Ottawa = Federal Government.

Downsizing the governments at all levels may be necessary after a pandemic, if government workers are better protected in a well prepared facility compared to the rest of the population.

Economic dislocation should not be unexpected.

It would make sense to prepare the public as well as the government. There has not been news on having the public prepared.

ANON-YYZ – at 21:20

Canadian Pandemic Influenza website:

http://tinyurl.com/f3v4u

This website was announced a few months ago with great fanfare as the ‘one-stop-shop’ for pandemic influenza preparation information. However, it does not seem to be updated. For example, the Travel Health Advisory is dated May 26, 2006, shortly after news of the Indonesian Karo cluster broke.

http://tinyurl.com/krzeo

One would agree that there have been serious developments on the Avian Influenza front in countries such as Thailand and Indonesia recently.

Emergency Management Ontario website:

http://tinyurl.com/znqzz

http://tinyurl.com/eqaps

If you do a Control-F and type “pandemic”, you will not find any reference on these two pages.

If you do a Search using the box on top right of the page, you will find pandemic listed previously (dated May 31, 2006) under FAQ in the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health:

http://tinyurl.com/fjhso

I thought that must be humorous. Pandemic is only for Addiction and Mental Health.

Taken together these changes in the Official communication with the public suggest that

either

the Canadian Federal and Provincial governments (which reached agreement on a Saturday during the Karo cluster to unify pandemic communication at all levels) decided, after the Indonesian Karo cluster in May, that pandemic is no longer an issue that needs the attention of the public,

or

there is overwhelming fear within government of the public awareness of the truth and downplaying or moderating is now necessary, at a time when I think the awareness should be encouraged.

Ottawa Guy – at 21:24

I don’t believe we’ll have to downsize gov’t as the pandemic will have taken care of that “problem”. To be honest, the gov’t will be looking at finding people, not laying them off.

Just like 100% of the world, federal bureaucrats aren’t immune to H5N1.

ANON-YYZ – at 21:35

With a smaller population, and possibly smaller economy, there would not be enough taxes to pay for some public services.

As of now, it would be reasonable to expect that government head office workers will be better protected from the effects of a pandemic (both infection and collateral due to supply chain disruption etc.) than the public. Therefore the mortality rate of the public will be higher than government office workers. Frontline workers e.g. health care, police may be the exception.

This is only a rough guess. There is no need to go into great detail on this point. We don’t really know how it’s going to play out.

Ottawa Guy – at 21:52

Au contraire, mon ami(e).

Office workers are likely more susceptible than others because of the density of office workers in modern office buildings and the degree of social interaction that takes place. Today for example, I was in at least 10 offices, very small, with poor air circulation. I interacted with at least 50 people, about 30 people touched my desk and I recall at dozen coughs throughout the day.

I would argue that office workers are more likely to be infected than other workers. On Friday, I will be in a boardroom that measures 10 ft x 15 feet with 12 other people. Imagine the possibilities.

ANON-YYZ – at 22:00

At least for now, there is no widespread awareness of and action on pandemic preparedness in the private sector work place.

Ottawa Guy – at 22:07

At the federal level, Treasury Board has given ministries, agencies, et al till the end of this month for each to have a working panplan. In that sense, gov’t is ahead of the curve.

Gov’t isn’t asleep at the switch, at least, at the planning level. I started my plan back in February and, working 30% of my day on it, I don’t expect it to be complete, ever! After the plan comes the working group who will be responsible for ensuring the elements of the plan are addressed on a dept by dept, level by level basis.

ANON-YYZ – at 22:13

ANON-YYZ – at 21:20

I thought that must be humorous. Pandemic is only for Addiction and Mental Health.

Some would argue that regulars of this forum need some help :-).

Ottawa Guy – at 22:21

I’m an irregular but I get the gist.

NS1 – at 22:41

Ottawa Guy at 21.52-

I have no doubt that you are correct about offices with central air circulation appliances.

Host Density, Host Proximity, Host Migration and Shared Fomites = Transmission

Ottawa Guy – at 22:46

NS1 – at 22:41

I’m encouraging distancing this Fall and Winter as a preample to future fiats on the issue. Hopefully, staff will practice it, if only in a casual way. Practice, practice, practice.

NS1 – at 22:51

OG,

Please drop some of your info into a profile please. Many here will be encouraged that a govt somewhere is working toward something better than just a few sentences tagged onto a disaster document.

After your next post, go to the thread list and you’ll see your name with a question mark after it. Click on your name and then write a bit of the info that you’ve shared on these threads about your work and where you are.

14 September 2006

ANON-YYZ – at 00:25

From the Canadian Pandemic Influenza site, I was directed to Public Health Agency of Canada web page on Emergency Preparedness:

http://tinyurl.com/j5qsp

There is, however, no mention of Pandemic Influenza mitigation, although you can see mitigation against CBRN Chemical Biological Radiological and Nuclear threat. I found this story about “Kingston hospital leads the way in CBRN preparedness”:

 http://tinyurl.com/k6z6l

Pandemic response would have to use CBRN resources, with a capacity for 100 patients in all of Ontario.

Resources on the ground are limited or non-existent. I saw a new story a while back about Ontario Nurses disputing the governments unwillingness to buy N95 for front line nurses. I checked the web site for Ontario Nurses and found the Summer 2006 Newsletter. Please read page 12. It is interesting that Ottawa Guy’s offices have budgeted N95 for office workers.

So let me get this straight, government office workers need N95 for protection during a pandemic, but no N95 masks for nurses who have to work real close to pandemic infected patients because ‘’there is no evidence to show they provide any more protection than the standard surgical masks’’ that proved useless against SARS. This is against the latest WHO recommendations. What if health care workers walk off the job, or if they don’t, we lose many health care workers quickly?

We as citizens are supposed to be comforted that every thing’s going to be OK.

The government of Canada is not asleep at the wheel. I would not be surprised that a lot of money has been used for planners and consultants, media communication specialists and the like. More will need to be spent to keep the dis-information campaign going, eyes wide open.

http://tinyurl.com/fmfg3

Quoted below:


There is a dispute now on the type of personal protective equipment that is to be made available to health care workers in the event of a flu outbreak. Currently, we are told the federal government is stockpiling 4.5 million standard surgical masks, at a cost of 10 cents per mask, as a protective measure for health care workers in a flu pandemic in Canada. Similarly in Ontario, officials plan to supply health care workers with surgical masks, yet we are told, emergency services workers (eg. paramedics, ambulance attendances, etc.), a male-dominated workforce, will be equipped with “face shields, Tyvex suits and N95 respirators.” We don’t think surgical masks are enough to protect our members. We learned that standard surgical masks were a useless barrier against SARS. We demanded, and finally got N95 respirators to protect our members against SARS, but that too was fraught with problems in that there was insufficient information provided on how to properly fit and use them. Nor were there enough of them for our members.

Now we’re being told we won’t need them in the event of an outbreak of Avian flu, despite scientific evidence that indicates influenza is airborne and that N95 respirators are the minimum protection that should be used, and despite the fact that other workers will have them. Well that’s just not good enough. Even if N95s cost 10 times as much as standard surgical masks, as we are told they do, it’s irrelevant to the health and safety of our members. Their lives should not be subject to a gamble, nor a decision that gets down to simple dollars and cents. And this time, they can’t plead ignorance in terms of effectiveness and which type of personal protective equipment is more suitable to protect our members. The World Health Organization recommends N95 masks for Avian flu, but Canadian federal and Ontario provincial officials are hedging by insisting there is no evidence to show they provide any more protection than the standard surgical masks that proved useless against SARS. We will not take that gamble. We need the best equipment available to protect our members, and in sufficient supplies. We will continue to speak out and demand appropriate protective equipment.

gharris – at 01:00

Re ‘Asleep at the wheel’ comment above:- Reminds me of a joke I think applies here - went something like - I want to die peacefully in my sleep like Grampah - not screaming with terror like the rest of the passengers in his car!!

A propos non??

Tom DVM – at 09:59

ANON YYZ and gharris.

It is pretty clear by now that our protestations are pretty much falling on deaf ears…and that preparations for a pandemic in Canada will be at best window dressing…

…unless the pandemic breaks open in China and then politely gives us six months warning, before coming to Canada, giving us time to gather essential supplies.

Maybe it is time to examine how many pandemic supplies and the raw materials to make them can be sourced within the borders of Canada

These would include: N95 masks, surgical gloves, disenfectants, antibiotics, oral electrolyte powders, prednisolone, anti-fever medications.

As you know, every country of the world will also be lined up in the order line at the same time.

I wonder…in a pinch…how many of these things can we make ourselves.

The level of demand over say Sept 15, 2006 is going to be ASTOUNDING!!!

This is my biggest worry…Thanks for listening.

ANON-YYZ – at 11:02

May be we should lay off some bureaucrats in Ottawa to make money available for ventilators and other supplies. On a good day, we don’t have enough doctors and nurses, and yet we keep hiring more and more consultants and PhD’s who don’t do clinical work.

How many PhD’s do you need to order a surgical mask?

gharris – at 11:16

YYZ - I am wondering if it might be helpful for you, Tom & I to get together - along with any other interested Ontario preppers - say in P’boro as a central location - see if we cant get some momentum going on ‘raising consciousness’ in the panprep Ontario field of dreams!! Ya interested? If so, contact me at: (my pseudonym) at eagle dot see eh (can you figure that out? to foil spammers!!) Anybody else interested??

Tom DVM – at 11:20

ANON YYZ

I do not have a family doctor. I just got home from a walk in clinic in my town and was hasseled for ten minutes about whether I really needed to see a doctor or not before Iwas given an appointment this afternoon…so I would have a hard time disagreeing with you.

During the SARS outbreak, Health Canada did exactly…NOTHING!!! I was watching them very closely at the time…talk about ‘deer caught in the headlights’.

Healthcare is a provincial matter…and as a result, I have always considered much of Health Canada a make work project…

…Maybe the solution is for them to fire themselves…and save us some serious money…budgets for many of these agencies are in the billions…

…and let the far more efficient and effective provincial healthcare providers to do the work…

I still believe that the most efficient regulatory agency in Canada is the British Columbia Centers for Disease Control…maybe we could let them take over from Health Canada…there is only one way to go in all of this…up!!

ANON-YYZ – at 11:27

gharris – at 11:16

Thanks, I’ll think about it. I really appreciate your call for action. I must say I am not optimistic. We have been labeled survivalists, loons, you name it. It might even be in the cheat sheet (what was that called Tom) that officials all sing from the same song sheet. Remember the dis-information machinery is so big and so powerful we may end up being hauled away in a strait jacket.

Tom DVM – at 11:32

Talking points…aka “the cheat sheet(what was that called Tom)so that officials all sing from the same song sheet”.

g…….You know a whole lot more about the media than I do…it’s your call.

gharris – at 11:44

The merest hint of a butterfly net would bring every constitutional lawyer in the country out in droves!!

Tom DVM – at 11:45

I already ‘outed’ myself so it really doesn’t matter to me, one way or another…

…makes life a lot easier…I think. /:0)

FrenchieGirlat 11:49

Hello. Sorry to intrude. FYI, with respect to finding your eggs to make vaccine, I had raised this question at CE last April Vaccine in hen’s eggs.

Tom DVM – at 11:53

FrenchieGirl. Thanks.

Tom DVM – at 11:54

g…good…as they say…you can’t bleed a stone!!

ANON-YYZ – at 12:07

Doctors have not been as vocal as nurses. However, most of them will not show up for work at a pandemic (triage) center.

Toronto Star:

http://tinyurl.com/n8q4g

What do they know that we don’t?

Tom DVM – at 12:12

ANON YYZ…the problem is that they do know what we know!!

Tom DVM – at 14:21

ANON YYZ. That is quite an article…just read it…it has nuances on top of nuances on top of nuances.

I would post in the news thread but I don’t know how. ANON YYZ. This article is just to ‘telling’ to be lost…please circulate it on the news thread again.

“When push comes to shove, physicians will recognize that they have a responsibility and do what they think is appropriate for them,” he said.

Now that’s an interesting statement…physicians will decide what is appropriate for them…well, when the physician goes home and meets a very worried wife who is crying with worry…and then he/she has to look into the eyes of several small children…I’m not sure that my advice wouldn’t be to …’get the hell out of there and look after his/her family’.

I really think that those of us who are a little older and no longer have families…may have a responsibility to take up the slack for those that do.

Also, this article is probably front and center in the Governments prerequisite course…SPINNING THE PUBLIC…HOW TO USE TALKING POINTS TO BUY TIME AND WIN NEW FRIENDS…and get promotions.

There is some major league spinning going on here.

Thanks ANON…it was interesting reading.

Tom DVM – at 19:18

ANON YYZ, gharris, Ottawa Guy.

Something just came to me while I was reading the news thread…In the USA, the blog site CDC chatterbox…is now starting to push the agenda at the CDC…the nice thing about this format is that you can be a whistleblower and anonymous at the same time.

Maybe what we need to develop is a Canadian Government chatterbox…to allow disgruntled government workers to voice their opposition to less than perfect policies and to identify waste and corruption.

g and ANON…how good are you two with computers?

Tom DVM – at 19:20

Within Canada’s chatterbox you might have different secions including agriculture and Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Health Canada, Public Health Agency of Canada…whatever.

What do you think?

Jody – at 19:42

Hi, All: I wanted to pop in with a question, not related to the discussion at hand…..

My brother-in-law was just admitted to acute care in Toronto with a “low-grade” pneumonia. He is in isolation! We asked why, if the illness is not serious (so they said). They said it was policy that every pneumonia went into isolation. Is that a policy driven by pandemic planning? I wasn’t able to find out what he has, if it is a resistent bug or what. I’m not POA, so they won’t talk to me.

I work in a hospital elsewhere, and we never put pneumonias in isolation…..

Tom DVM – at 19:50

Jody. If you are a healthcare worker you might want to ask a doctor at your hospital…but I understand that isolation was a precaution put in place because of SARS…if it had been in place before SARS, then it wouldn’t have taken off throughout emergency departments the way it did…kind of like using them as a wick.

I hope your brother-in-law recovers quickly and is back to his old self soon…I lost mine last January and really miss him.

Tom DVM – at 19:54

By the way, I didn’t say Hi and welcome Jody to fluwiki. I hope you stick around and jump right in…we could surely use your help. Out of 32 million people, there are only a handful of Canadians here./:0)

ANON-YYZ – at 19:58

Jody – at 19:42

It may be enhanced surveillance for ‘unspecified Febrile Respiratory illness (FRI). Did they ask questions about travelling, contact tracing?

See:

Toronto Pandemic Plan

http://tinyurl.com/nkn8t

Page 43 of pdf file


2.3 Trends in Influenza-like Illness –

Febrile Respiratory Illness After SARS, it was recognized that emerging or threatening respiratory diseases would likely present as influenza-like illness (ILI) or an unspecified Febrile Respiratory illness (FRI). The MOHLTC has requested all health care settings to systematically assess all clients for the presence of FRI symptoms (see Chapter 10 for more detail). Any clusters of FRI in an institutional setting or individual cases with a positive travel history are to be reported to Public Health immediately. This system is particularly useful early on in a pandemic, to identify any ill individuals who may have traveled to areas with circulating pandemic strains so that immediate precautions to minimize the risk of transmission are taken.

ANON-YYZ – at 20:00

Tom DVM – at 19:54

I second that. Welcome, Jody.

Jody – at 20:14

Hi, Tom DMV: I have yet to gel down my hair from the “pigs” thread. I spent Sunday creating an inventory system for my preps after reading that.

Hi, Anon YYZ: My BIL is a long-term care patient. So no, no travelling. But he has alot of exposure to Asians caring for him, who MIGHT have been travelling. I did ask if the facility where he stays is under outbreak precautions, but DH did not ask that of the nurse.

As a comment on the few Canadians posting: my comarades at work will not talk about a pandemic. When I took information about Bill 56 (health care conscription during emergencies), people walked away from me. One told me he’d just quit. They don’t get it at a very deep level. My friends tolerate me, thinking this is my “difficult phase”.

I have decided that the government sees its population as expendable, that is why they haven’t said a peep.

ANON-YYZ – at 20:28

Jody – at 20:14

I hope your BIL get well soon. May I ask how quickly after admission did they decide to isolate him?

I watched the May TV news when both the Federal and Provincial Health Ministers were on the air announcing joint unified pandemic communication. They can put up a brave front, but the skin tone, body language betrayed their worries. Unfortunately, they are frozen in their action, not knowing how to break the bad news without causing a panic.

Jody – at 20:35

Well, Anon YYZ, my BIL was isolated immediately upon triage in emerg.

I went to our local pandemic planning meeting, where the Chief Medical Officer showed prevelance data from 1993. What was that—an old ppt slide he had sitting around, didn’t have time to make a new one for the pandemic planning meeting from 2005 data? Imagine data from 1993 coming out of a scientist. Who was he trying to flamboozle? My taxes pay this dude’s wages and I am very UNIMPRESSED.

ANON-YYZ – at 20:41

Jody – at 20:35

Thanks. They are taking this seriously at the hospital.

Do you have to be a health care professional in order to attend such a planning meeting? Did anyone ask ‘deep’ questions?

Prepping Gal – at 20:57

I’m going way off topic but as fellow Canadians I think this is the best place to ask for comments.

I’m concerned about heating this winter.I live west of Calgary at the base of the foothills. It gets mighty cold as you will know. We are in the country & have two fireplaces. One is natural gas stove and the other is wood fireplace converted to natural gas but not a stove insert, just logs.

As backup I have two kerosene heaters and about 60 gallons of kerosene. The house is a walkout bungalow fully developed with downstairs that has doors so we could close off. The gas stove is downstairs; as is my large pantry with all my preps (separate room).

We can get wood but I wouldn’t cut trees on our property (not right type of wood). The wood fireplace upstairs is your typical inefficient fireplace but it can take the chill off.

At minus 20 or lower I don’t know if we can keep things warm enough to stay but with so many preps (about a year’s worth) I don’t want to leave. My DH feels as I do that natural gas is less likely to be cutoff. He says that we can run the wired-in gas generator to periodically run the furnace and that if power is out but NG is on the furnace will restart itself (it will get too hot and shutdown) and because its in the pantry area it will likely keep the area from freezing but it will get hot and go out. (I wonder how long it can do that?)

Wood stoves and inserts are very much discouraged by insurance companies and we wouldn’t risk installing without informing them. They have apparently strict guidelines which means buying a wood stove or woodburning cook stove would require a new unit; expensive to say the least. I also don’t really want the work of a wood burning unit if I can help it.

What are you doing for heat backup and for that matter cooking backup (I’d love a wood cookstove to cover both bases but it seems price prohibitive). Where would you buy a cook stove; I can’t find anything online that is local? But going wood isn’t ideal to me except if I think NG is not going to be available. Your thoughts and your plans, please.

Jody – at 20:58

Oh, It was a comedy. This was a meeting open to the general public. Perhaps they dumbed it down? Anyhow, one guy said to put three days of food away, in a knapsack, and find a place to evacuate to. Next guy said they were gonna shut down the highways in a pandemic. I guess I have to hike out with my three day’s supply. A public health rep said it would take a minimum of 8 months to vaccinate the entire population of our area (without mentioning how long it would take to supply vaccine in the first place). The crowd murmured alot at that. People asked basic questions—how is the “flu” going to kill us if it is a stomach ache. The differences were explained. General procedure masks with sheilds are stockpiled, they had some on display. No N95′s are in town. I was going to make a run out to Shopper’s as I read in the previous part to this thread that. I get to wear my mask, and they can wear theirs.

Jody – at 20:58
Jody – at 21:05

Prepping gal: Howdy. I’m a tranplanted Albertan. Hey, heat rises, so heat the basement. I, too, have a gas stove and am hoping to boil water for food and hygiene purposes. The plus is it will keep the pipes from freezing if you heat the basement.

I had to live today without electricity as we were having repairs done. It was a hard day. I’m on a well and could only flush the toilet once before no water.

ANON-YYZ – at 21:18

Prepping Gal – at 20:57

I found this: direct vent gas stove that you can cook on top. I think this is completely sealed, so won’t have same fire and CO risk as wood stove. Should be CSA, and good enough for insurance. Better yet, hook this up to a large propane tank outside. Natural gas may not run as they won’t be able to keep stable pressure without electricity, which means they have to shut it down for safety.

http://tinyurl.com/edggc

I am planning to cook with my outdoor barbecue, using thermos cooker or pressure cooker on the side burner to minimize fuel consumption.

ANON-YYZ – at 21:23

Jody – at 21:05

Some one posted and said gas stove/range/oven needs electricity to run. Is yours a range or a ‘wood stove look-alike’?

Tom DVM – at 21:27

It is pretty hard to beat the cook stoves that they used fifty plus years ago with the hot water jacket on them.

ANON-YYZ – at 21:28

ANON-YYZ – at 21:18

Prepping Gal – at 20:57

Sorry, I haven’t really look into that stove in detail. Best to talk to a dealer. Brochure said it has (require ?) a blower which means electricity, but likely less electricity than whole house furnace blower, so may work with your genset. Still worth checking out.

Jody – at 21:43

Anon YYZ: My new gas stove came with instructions on how to light it if the power goes out. So if the gas is pressurized down the line to the house (“if”), then I can light the thing. Basically you turn on the gas, hold up a match, and hope you keep your eyebrows! Since my brother is a gas empolyee still in Alberta, I’ll get a heads up if they forsee it failing. And I bought stock in the NG feild as opposed to gold as part of my preps, don’t disillusion me!

Jody – at 21:45

As an addendum to the gas stove, I was referring to burner cooking only. I don’t think I could light the oven—it goes on and off to keep temp, so I doubt that would work.

ANON-YYZ – at 21:54

Jody – at 21:43

You really should double check, by turning off the mains and see whether the stove still works.

About whether NG will stay, there’s been a lot of debate. The main issue is any where along the distribution pipe where the power is intermittent i.e. even rotating blackout, would mean that they have to shut down the system, as most people would not know how to turn on/off the pilot light for furnace. I don’t know how many ‘links’ have to fail between Alberta and Ontario before the fire department say shut it down.

I found out furnace won’t work without electricity, the newer direct vent fireplace would, and can be converted from NG to propane, but it’s not very fuel efficient (mostly for looks).

Also cooking with a regular gas stove burner without electricity and ventilation is not a good idea - CO poisoning. You won’t even have your range hood running.

Jody – at 21:59

Another thought---A gas stove runs pretty clean. The CO calls my brother has gone to often are caused by too many candles burning. He said people turn their houses into cathedrals, and that causes their detectors to go off. Which brings me to another problem I hadn’t considered—CO from candles.

I’ll have to call up the bro for a consult. Any questions for him? He has worked in all areas of production and distribution, currently installs industrial applications for NG. He’ll get answers should he not know them off the top of his head.

ANON-YYZ – at 22:14

Jody – at 21:59

I think he’s talking about smoke detector going off with too many candles. I don’t use candles because of fire hazard. I bought Coleman 12v rechargeable fluorescent lanterns, with small solar panel to recharge. Alternatively, just get battery lanterns, but stock up on batteries. During pandemic, because of stress, it is easier to make a mistake and cause a fire. Also, your regular CO and smoke detectors may be wired, which means you need to buy some battery operated ones, and have enough batteries.

It’s great that you have a brother in the NG business. Please ask him if there is rotating blackout anywhere from Alberta to Ontario, does he know whether they can keep the gas pressure regulators running? Some on this forum said the pipelines have standby NG generators that will kick in. I am not sure that is true all the way up to your house though, may be inter-provincial gas lines has NG standby generators.

Google Quebec ice storm of 1998 to get some sense of what’s it like with power outage in Canada. (Standby generators for Bell Canada phone distribution points were stolen - they had to guard them.)

Jody – at 22:19

The answer to the question: The huge compressors that pressurize the lines run on NG themselves, and there is back-up power generators in the gas plants and they can create their own power. In Alberta, they have some coal fired generators, but mostly they burn NG for their power, contingency plans.

Stove will still work without electricity. Natural gas fireplace produces it’s own charge to light the gas, 750 millivolts. The fan won’t work. Heat will be radiant, like a wood fire place.

If the stove is used continually as a heat source, might be significant production of CO. Is not significant with cooking. CO2 might build up, then you reburn CO2 and produce CO as a secondary byproduct. That would be bad. Do not sleep with the stove burner on for heat. Run only to take the chill off the air.

Jody – at 22:25

Regulators are orfices that cause reduction in pressure. Downstream pressures are at a lower pressure (as gas flows from the production facility). There is a regulator before your meter on the house, reduces pressure from 60 lbs psi (line pressure) to .25 psi as the gas flows into the house. Not an electric device.

Jody – at 22:26

Generators are the size of a two story building. These can’t go in the back of a pick-up truck. The scale of this equipment is enormous.

Jody – at 22:33

As a conclusion, he does not foresee a lack of power to cause loss of NG. Contingency plans allow replacement of electricity indefinately in the case of loss.

He went back to fixing his broken treadmill, out there in Alberta.

ANON-YYZ – at 22:35

Jody – at 22:19

Thank you and please thank your brother for me. That’s good to know. At least the gas will flow. Next question: if there is localised blackout, do we have to shut down the pilot light in the furnace, and in the hot water tank?

What happens if 20% of employees at NG company are absent? Will gas still be produced? How many percent of employee absence would it take to cause production problems, due to maintenance? Just a rough guess.

Jody – at 22:44

I will e-mail him the questions, and post the answers here when I get them. He thought it interesting that you guys were that keen on the topic. He doesn’t get to talk “regulators” every day! Maybe I can convince him to post and answer directly.

15 September 2006

Prepping Gal – at 00:34

Good work Jody. I feel a little better knowing that there are backup generators to keep NG running. Being in Alberta may be helpful I don’t know. The type of natural gas stove I have looks like a wood stove for heating (not a cooking stove). It’s pretty well insulated but I think if on high I could heat things up. I plan to use the NG barbecue (brrr outdoor), Coleman Propane Stove (again outdoors), NG Fireplace, and an outdoor oven (wood or charcoal but I’m not to pleased yet with performance using charcoal) as well as a Coleman Propane StoveTop Oven. I bought several packs of Magic Heat (gel I think) stoves & cans of fuel as well. I wouldn’t use to cook but once things are brought to boil I’d use these to keep heating. Oh one other thing I bought was the Coleman Butane single burner & several butane canisters (Zellers was selling them off at $2.00) because many report using them indoors with minimal ventilation & even some restaurants use them at table side (thinking how can I cook at minus 20 degrees). I also plan to use Lodge cast iron cookware. I tried cooking with the styrofoam coolers (like thermos cooking) and it worked quite well but its slow going.

If NG was to stop flowing I do think Canada is in big trouble in the winter months. There is no simple solution when you look around in large cities and realize all those houses without heat. It boggles the mind.

Sailor – at 00:50

Prepping Gal – at 20:57

Go with a air tight wood heater in the basement preferably a Blaze King, Regency or a Pacific Energy. you can cook and get heat from all three of these stoves as they have a cooking surface on top. The fire place stores are now selling a stove top oven that sits on the top and has a indent at the back which sits around the stove pipe. I have not used the oven but it looked interesting (although a bit expensive.) We have used a Pacific Energy stove in the lower level of a hill side bungalo to heat the whole house and we are quite satisfied with it.

gharris – at 00:56

A friend of mine has the oven thing that sits on top of the airtight - it is a bit larger than a breadbox and you cannot ‘control’ the heat, but it seems to work okay for reheating things - could probably do bread in it if you were prepared to fiddle with it constantly - stews etc but really really slow!!

gharris – at 00:58
ANON-YYZ – at 01:22

If power goes out, gas pumps don’t work. Imagine no snow ploughs, salters etc. Emergency vehicle won’t go too far. Trucks won’t deliver suppies. Some apartments has baseboard electric heating. Older houses still use fuel oil for heating. Every thing gets more complicated in Canada. Don’t know whether Quebec still uses electricity for heating - as in 1998. The only ‘good’ out of this is you are forced to stay at home, if you have heat, food and water. Power outage doesn’t even have to be made in Canada because the grid is tied to the U.S.

Jody – at 09:40

As for all gas appliances, having them serviced NOW to make sure they are burning as clean as possible might be a very good fall maintenance plan (no…I’m not just getting him appointments!). Bro said that the main byproducts of NG combustion is CO2 and water, providing the flame you see is a clear blue one. Reburning CO2 that builds up in the room is the problem that produces CO. Stay tuned for more from the gas man!

Yes, AnonYYZ, I have been worried about the old grid. Some redundancy was supposed to be built into the system to prevent a failure like the summer of…was it 2003? I am not up on the fix.

ANON-YYZ – at 18:47

Please check today (September 15, 2006) news thread. Special thanks to

banshee – at 16:06

City not prepared for flu pandemic: councillor from Inside Toronto

http://tinyurl.com/pysju

Tom DVM – at 18:52

ANON YYZ. I didn’t need a report…isn’t that what you have been saying for a couple of months?

ANON-YYZ – at 18:57

Tom DVM – at 18:52

Show it to your community. You are not a lune, a..loon (alone).

Tom DVM – at 19:04

I wouldn’t be so sure if I were you. /:0)

Bronco Bill – at 19:09

You are not a lune

Sounds a bit more Scot than Canadian! ;-)

Tom DVM – at 19:13

Better watch it ANON YYZ…Bronco Bill and I will ‘out’ you before we are done…Scottish Eh!!

I am one quarter Scottish by the way…that is completely overrun by the half Irish part!!

17 September 2006

Ottawa Guy – at 20:56

On Friday, I had a meeting with a committee of which, I am a member at work. This committee is responsible for developing our panplan. Being the panplan author, I provided an update on my progress with a number of panplan issues (e.g. legal authorities) and preps for the office (I acquired a few thousand additional isolation masks). I didn’t expect any kind of feedback or anything, other than a couple nods. I was taken aback by a few remarks from a couple members.

“At what point do we stop preparing?”, the suggestion being that we really shouldn’t be doing anything more than what we have already done. This comment followed my comments regarding coordination of our plan with that of the building manager and of other ministries, agencies within the building. In relation to the isolation masks and of their use of protecting the N95s and prolonging their useful life, I got a comment about just closing the place down if it got to that point. Yes, I reminded them of the timeframe (can we close for a year? A year and a half?).

The committee is questioning the need for preps beyond a token flag waving. This is despite months of education, of research…these are educated people.

I told myself: “suck it up buttercup”. I think I have to hammer the issue home again. hehe.

18 September 2006

crfullmoon – at 02:55

Bonjour!

Tom DVM – at 14:21, when I get the chance, I look health care providers in the eye and say, We will need still trained medical people *after* a pandemic; we can’t lose them all on the front line if it is a high-mortality rate pandemic, with no treatments, no supplies available!

Jody – at 20:58, (and, Ottawa Guy!) guess everyone passed on notifiying the public when the WHO had “ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza” Oct.2005. We wouldn’t have to do this if they had.

Au revoir!

20 September 2006

gharris – at 00:58

YYZ & Tom and others in GTA - just received this reply to note I wrote to Toronto Councillor Filion on Sept 15 to applaud his warning to Toronto Council re City not prepared for flu pandemic: councillor from Inside Toronto http://tinyurl.com/pysju

I am SO pleased that he says he is monitoring it closely

Hi,

Thanks for your kind comments. I was quite disappointed by the article which, for example, referred to me as a “councillor” rather than as Chair of the Toronto Board of Health and the politician at the city in charge of this issue. Anyway, I’m monitoring the issue very closely.

Best wishes,

John Filion

gharris – at 22:07

bump

Tom DVM – at 22:44

g. Congratulations and thanks!!

26 September 2006

gharris – at 10:54

Good Morning all you Canucks!!

I was just drifting around in the Federal Govt website and came across this FYI - apparently we now have a ‘SAFE CANADA’ website - never noticed it before - has anyone else? Or is it new?? Are we copycats or what??!! http://tinyurl.com/lpaj4 The amusing thing is that the info sheet on BF is a reprint of a US one (oh well why re-invent the wheel) click on the first pdf on the page - the info sheet (dated 2005) says prep for 3 days - arrgghh!! Any comments on this govt initiative anybody??!

crfullmoon – at 11:00

So, neighbors to the North, where’ the most prepared county in Canada? (Is there one?) ;-)

(Beam me up, Scotty! There’s no intelligent life in charge down here!)

Ottawa Guy – at 21:24: “Just like 100% of the world, federal bureaucrats aren’t immune to H5N1.”

(I’ll hold that thought, until I find something to cheer me up.)

gharris – at 22:25

I thought I would do a bit of research on Dr Theresa Tam -

found this quote from the Jan 27, 2006 Vancouver Sun which does NOT give me the ‘warm & fuzzies!! http://tinyurl.com/osrn9

But, “we really have no idea how this virus will behave next if it undergoes some mutation.”

The updated influenza pandemic plan will include recommendations for the use of masks. Droplets, or larger “blobs” of secretions primarily spread flu. General surgical masks should be enough should a pandemic happen, Tam says.

“Public health experts feel that putting a mask on an ill person when they’re coughing or sneezing and have to move around … is a sensible thing to do.

“Having well people milling about on the streets wearing masks all the time, we don’t know if it’s effective or not.”

The public focus will be on hand hygiene, Tam says.

27 September 2006

gharris – at 09:58

Ottawa Guy:-

What does your dept say to this? (from yesterday’s news thread)

Canada

Expert urges greater focus on fighting bird flu

A Canadian authority on viruses says governments should invest more in developing drugs to combat bird flu and other possible pandemics.

Dr Jeremy Carver is the chief executive officer of the International Consortium on Anti-Virals that has just met on Queensland’s Gold Coast.

He says governments are stockpiling two drugs to treat bird flu, but there are already drug-resistant cases in Vietnam and Indonesia.

“If that particular strain that’s resistant to Tamiflu becomes easily transmissible between humans then we have a major challenge because the stockpiles that governments around the world have spent billions of dollars on would be useless, so we need drugs that are going to work regardless of which strain it is that emerges as a pandemic,” he said.

http://tinyurl.com/f46f7

gharris – at 13:21

bump

Ottawa Guy – at 19:42

gharris – at 09:58 Ottawa Guy:-

What does your dept say to this? (from yesterday’s news thread)

My department says nothing to this and I don’t believe we can. True, we need research on other forms of treatment. Having said that, we must continue to prep. I’m not a researcher so, I worry mainly about those things I can control.

As an aside, I saw that Agri-Canada is looking for a preparedness officer with a background in pandemic planning (found on the PSC job board). Hmm, you would have thought this was something they had done some time ago? Likely they are backfilling a position that has become vacant. At least, that is the hope.

Tom DVM – at 19:49

Want to be my reference? /:0)

Ottawa Guy – at 19:54

Sure Tom. The money isn’t great (60k per year) but if you want to do it for the country, I’ll be there to support ya :)

Tom DVM – at 20:01

Thanks Ottawa Guy…You just proved that you are most definitely and certifiably crazy!! /;0)

The odds of me getting this job are about equivalent to sprouting wings and then climbing out of your computer to say hello…

…in the next millisecond.

28 September 2006

Tom DVM – at 21:10

pogge – at 19:42 p.s. Canada adds tamiflu to off-patient drugs list. WOW!

Canada adds Tamiflu to off-patent drugs list

The federal government has added the flu antiviral oseltamivir - better known as Tamiflu - to the list of patented medications that generic drug manufacturers in this country can apply to make and export to developing countries.

Douglas Clark, Industry Canada’s director of patent policy, confirmed in an e-mail late Wednesday that oseltamivir has been added to the list of drugs covered by the program called Canada’s Access to Medicines Regime, formerly known as the Jean Chretien Pledge to Africa Act.

The executive vice-president of Biolyse Pharma Corp., the Ontario company that has been lobbying for the right to make generic Tamiflu, said it will begin immediately the process of trying to get a licence to produce and export the drug.

And John Fulton suggested developing countries aren’t the only potential clients for the generic Tamiflu that Biolyse hopes to make.

“I’ll tell you straight up, there’s definitely an interest to investigate the possibility of a compulsory licence for domestic product,” he said, referring to a legal instrument that would allow the company to sell generic Tamiflu on the Canadian market as well. That permission could not be granted through the Access to Medicines Regime.

Thanks pogge

30 September 2006

gharris – at 15:34

I have just spent the morning nailing up “Oak Ridges Moraine Protected Wetland - No Hunting” signs all around my property - in an effort to deter hunters - My PPF always goes up at this time of year with regard to stray bullets :-)) - and especially now in case the waterfowl might have LPAI - Most hunters in my community have never heard of BF - or if they have they dont think it is anything they need to worry about!!

Ottawa Guy – at 16:39

gharris-at 15:34

I’m a waterfowler and this year I’ll be taking a pass on duck/goose hunting. Not so much because of the H5N1 risk but because of the leadership I have to demonstrate at work on the issue of pandemic planning. Being the proverbial canary, if I hunted waterfowl, if I got sick, it would appear hypocritical and it certainly wouldn’t look good. How much risk would others see if they knew I was hunting ducks?

ANON-YYZ – at 19:11

I posted this on the news thread. Notice the author, from Toronto Sick Kids Hospital. I am glad some one is speaking up. The Canadian Pandemic plan basically positions the surgical mask as the PPE of choice for pandemic protection for health care workers, stating that there is no scientific evidence that N95 is any more effective.

http://tinyurl.com/qn5vq

Review of Aerosol Transmission of Influenza A Virus

Raymond Tellier*†

Several authors have stated that large-droplet transmission is the predominant mode by which influenza virus infection is acquired (1–3). As a consequence of this opinion, protection against infectious aerosols is often ignored for influenza, including in the context of influenza pandemic preparedness. For example, the Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan and the US Department of Health and Human Services Pandemic Influenza Plan (4,5) recommend surgical masks, not N95 respirators, as part of personal protective equipment (PPE) for routine patient care. This position contradicts the knowledge on influenza virus transmission accumulated in the past several decades. Indeed, the relevant chapters of many reference books, written by recognized authorities, refer to aerosols as an important mode of transmission for influenza (6–9).

anon_22 – at 19:16

If they seriously want HCW to turn up for work, they better have PAPR’s ready. At least for those with closest contact.

How much $ do you rate an ICU nurse or respiratory therapist?

ANON-YYZ – at 19:41

I saw this in the Upcoming Pandemic Conferences- October Thread

banshee – at 13:19 Ontario

Pandemic Communications Forum - Toronto, November 30 & December 1

http://tinyurl.com/z54os


COMMENT

Notice the sponsor of the conference - Health Care Public Relations Association (clearly a group set up to further the interests of their members, not the interests of the public)

Other countries are trying hard to prepare, with conferences on pandemic, not on PR. We Canadians are celebrating how successful the spin doctors are in down playing the threat of the pandemic, and we have to watch how public positions are used to further promote the personal careers of these spin doctors, with the main stream media following in tow for the lime light.

The Public Health Agency of Canada should rename itself as the Ill-Health Public Relations Agency of Canada.

The political leadership got no chance. They are set up by the bureaucrats.

Tom DVM – at 21:05

ANON - YYZ. Good to see you back and in ‘fighting form’ per usual.

I have a lot of respect for researchers like Dr. Banting. When it came time to test his hypothesis and his new concoction called insulin…he did what any ethical scientist would do…he lifted up his sleeve and ‘put his money where is mouth is’.

Now, in 2006, it seems a Dr. Tellier has made some significant findings in relation to the transmission of influenza.

In Ontario, where during the SARS crisis, nurses who later contacted SARS, were given surgical masks by their superiors with the garauntee that they were protective against SARS.

A lot of lives are hanging in the balance as a result of Dr. Tellier’s significant findings…

…I am quite sure that Dr. Tellier would like to follow his famous colleague, Dr. Banting, and put on a surgical mask and be placed in different aerosol air suspensions.

01 October 2006

gharris – at 00:42

Late antiviral treatment can help (regular seasonal) flu patients

Updated Fri. Sep. 29 2006 5:09 PM ET

Canadian Press - CTV News http://tinyurl.com/rpjpf

TORONTO — A study of patients hospitalized with influenza suggests treatment with an antiviral drug, even if started later than is considered optimal, can substantially increase a person’s chance of survival.

A group of Toronto researchers found the rate of deaths among flu patients in hospital was halved in those who received the drug oseltamivir, sold under the brand name Tamiflu. The findings were presented Friday at an infectious diseases conference in San Francisco.

Between seven and eight per cent of patients hospitalized for flu who didn’t receive the drug died during the period of study, said lead author Dr. Allison McGeer, an infectious diseases expert at Toronto’s Mount Sinai Hospital. Among treated patients, four per cent died, she said.

________________________________________

Dr McGeer is one of the ‘good guys’ - she works with Dr Donal Low at Mt Sinai - they are the only specialists I think worth listening to!!

gharris – at 00:43

Late antiviral treatment can help (regular seasonal) flu patients

Updated Fri. Sep. 29 2006 5:09 PM ET

Canadian Press - CTV News http://tinyurl.com/rpjpf

TORONTO — A study of patients hospitalized with influenza suggests treatment with an antiviral drug, even if started later than is considered optimal, can substantially increase a person’s chance of survival.

A group of Toronto researchers found the rate of deaths among flu patients in hospital was halved in those who received the drug oseltamivir, sold under the brand name Tamiflu. The findings were presented Friday at an infectious diseases conference in San Francisco.

Between seven and eight per cent of patients hospitalized for flu who didn’t receive the drug died during the period of study, said lead author Dr. Allison McGeer, an infectious diseases expert at Toronto’s Mount Sinai Hospital. Among treated patients, four per cent died, she said.

________________________________________

Dr McGeer is one of the ‘good guys’ - she works with Dr Donald Low at Mt Sinai - they are the only specialists I think worth listening to!!

gharris – at 00:44

oops!! Sorry for the double post!!

gharris – at 01:41

Quote from Goju in another thread:-

Gov workers and media workers are just people like you and me. And when they have reached that dark place in the back of their mind and see the potential horror as we have all seen, they will use their positions to make a change and help others prepare. __________________________________________

and they could send the message up the line to their boss’s boss’s boss!

gharris – at 23:51

bump

03 October 2006

gharris – at 00:30

bump

05 October 2006

gharris – at 23:20

Just noticed now that ONtario released its new improved version of their ‘OHPIP’ Ontario Health Pandemic Influenza Plan - release date was Sept 21 - I guess the MSM didnt catch it - release must have been whispered very quietly!!! Read it here:- http://tinyurl.com/bqq5u

Also interesting is Ontario Health newsletter on Avian Flu (for HCW) in the Ontario Health website - go to home from the above link.

Seems like the tone has changed a bit??!

gharris – at 23:38

http://tinyurl.com/z584s

For example:-

About 10% of Ontarians get ordinary flu each year. About 35% of Ontarians may get pandemic flu over the course of an outbreak. Most people who get ordinary flu will get sick, but they usually recover within a couple of weeks. About half of the people who get pandemic flu will become ill. Most will recover, but it may take a long time. And some people will die. Ordinary flu is hardest on people who don’t have a strong immune system : the very young, the very old, and people with certain chronic illnesses. People of any age may become seriously ill with pandemic flu, depending on the virus. In a normal flu season, up to 2,000 Ontarians die of complications from the flu, such as pneumonia. During a flu pandemic, Ontario would see many more people infected and possibly many more deaths. There are annual flu shots that will protect people from ordinary flu. There is no existing vaccine for pandemic flu. It will take four to five months after the pandemic starts to develop a vaccine. There are drugs that people can take to treat ordinary flu. These same drugs may also help people with pandemic flu but we may not have a large enough supply for everyone and we will not know their effectiveness until the virus is identified.

Not a word about sheltering in place or stockpiling water,food,fuel or Rx meds though!!! “How can I protect myself and my family from a flu pandemic? If a flu pandemic spreads to Ontario, you can reduce your risk by doing the same things you do to protect yourself and your family from ordinary flu and other infections :

Get your flu shot every year – the flu shot will not protect you from a pandemic flu virus, but it will protect you from getting ordinary flu, which could weaken your immune system or resistance to the pandemic flu. Wash your hands with soap thoroughly and often – good hand hygiene is the best way to prevent the spread of all viruses. Keep an alcohol-based sanitizer (gel or wipes) handy at work, home and in the car. cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze stay home when you are sick avoid large crowds of people where viruses can spread easily Avoid large crowds of people and other close contact with strangers (while traveling for example) during a pandemic. Follow any instructions given by public health officials.”

06 October 2006

gharris – at 00:19

Ontario has ‘Alert’ phases!!!

‘Routine’ status at present!!

Provincial Status Indicators

The Provincial Status indicators are a method of informing Ontarians of a developing or existing health emergency.

Declaration of Routine Conditions means that the healthcare system is operating under normal conditions. Under these conditions the ministry maintains ongoing surveillance for abnormal events.

Declaration of Enhanced Conditions means that a potential emergency is developing at a local level. Under these conditions the ministry enhances its surveillance and monitoring activities and takes appropriate related actions. For updates and important information health care professionals would continue to check the Emergency Management Unit section of this website.

Declaration of Emergency Conditions means that the province is in an emergency response mode. Under these conditions the ministry activates its Emergency Plan and takes appropriate related actions. For updates and important information health care professionals would continue to check the Emergency Management Unit section of this website.

Declaration of Recovery Conditions means that the ministry is working to ensure a smooth transition from Enhanced or Emergency Conditions to Routine Conditions. For updates and important information health care professionals would continue to check the Emergency Management Unit section of this website.

http://tinyurl.com/kfk62

gharris – at 11:29

bump!!!

gharris – at 22:19

TOM, YYZ OG!!! Did you check out this stuff above that I posted yesterday???!!! any comments???

ANON-YYZ – at 22:31

gharris – at 22:19

Thanks, I saw it but didn’t have time to read it. Will try this week end.

Tom DVM – at 22:37

g. Excellent work…also haven’t had time to read it but will comment later…thanks.

07 October 2006

beehiver – at 00:23

gharris at 23:38 on 5 Oct -

Hope you all don’t mind a non-Canadian jumping on this…the Ontario plan said: Get your flu shot every year – the flu shot will not protect you from a pandemic flu virus, but it will protect you from getting ordinary flu, which could weaken your immune system or resistance to the pandemic flu.

So they are saying the flu shot, which can lose its effective strength in 3 months or more (depending on age and immune status), is better protection than antibodies from an “ordinary flu” infection? Yikes what’s happening here with this twisting of basic, decent science? One would think having antibodies from ordinary flu infection might be an asset, not a liability, in the face of a pandemic. This is not to suggest going out and trying to catch ordinary seasonal flu. But the quote above definitely implies that getting seasonal flu might work against you.

Maybe I’m just seeing this from another planet somewhere, lol.

gharris – at 10:17

Beehiver @ 00:23

It is just another example of the ‘nanny state’ that goes on up here!! - I think what they are trying to say is that if you get a regular flu shot then you wont be ‘run down’ from battling an an ordinary flu infection if panflu were to happen right after or concurrently - who knows??!! Communication is not their strong suit! Many Canucks get their annual flu shot anyway - it is free and distribution handled by local Health Units - they have more or less convinced us (except for TomDVM!!) that it is socially irresponsible to risk exposing the elderly, frail or babies to regular flu virus - the joke is that it always seems that the flu that circulates is NOT the one they have immunized us for!!! So Tom may be right after all!! :-)) I am more concerned that there is not a word in the ‘updated plan’ of the need to have stockpiles of water,food,fuel,Rx meds etc on hand for an extended period of SIP!! And they dont give the current ‘potential for death’ figures!! I think interesting that they post the NYC pandemic plan on their website as a link - when we have discussed here the possibility that NYC may be ‘triaged’ as a city with quite different strategy (or lack thereof!!) However - I suppose it is a ‘good thing’ that they have updated their plan and are putting out a monthly newsletter, nothwithstanding that it is mostly made of candy floss!!!

beehiver – at 16:34

Thanks gharris for your response. I remember a few years ago an incident involving some ambulance workers in Canada (perhaps Ontario) that refused to get a flu shot, and they were labelled as “socially irresponsible” and their jobs were threatened. That was the tipping point for me about vaccinations in general…something flipped the switch…if they can demean people in that way for making their own medical treatment decisions, we have a big problem.

I have been posting on some other threads some points about flu vaccine that people deserve to be informed about (and usually are not), with a few scientific references. It probably deserves to be on one thread, but then I fear the thread might get lost in the fluwiki cracks…

09 October 2006

ANON-YYZ – at 21:56

gharris – at 23:20 October 5, 2006

I have browsed through the updated Ontario Health Pandemic Plan. I am not a health care professional so my views are that of a prepper. I have not read through the whole document of 477 pages but I notice the following:

1. lots of name dropping - quoting John Barry, CDC, Public Health Agency of Canada etc. to perhaps CYA and/or create an impression of thoughtfulness;

2. while John Barry shows up all over the place i.e. 1918, the planning assumptions are based on 1968 pandemic as far as Impact on health care system is concerned - see Chapter 13, especially page 13A-76 or page 350 of the pdf;

3. page 9–2 or page 152 of pdf:

Use of Antivirals

Currently there is no evidence that putting large groups of otherwise healthy Canadians on antivirals in order to prevent influenza (i.e., prophylaxis) will slow or stop the spread of a pandemic; however, prophylaxis with antivirals may play a key role in maintaining critical services (i.e., preventing infection in and providing reassurance to people caring for individuals with influenza as well as workers in critical industries) until a vaccine becomes available. Both the 2004 and 2005 OHPIP listed preliminary groups of people who, based on their health status or their role during a pandemic, would be the first to receive antivirals for treatment or prophylaxis. Ontario has removed those lists from the 2006 OHPIP and will develop a provincial policy on the use of antivirals for prophylaxis based on the national policy (currently under development) and in accordance with the ethical framework for decision-making. This will help ensure a consistent approach to using antivirals for prophylaxis across all provinces and territories, which will lead to stronger public confidence and morale. With regard to antivirals for treatment, the Ontario government is committed to providing treatment for individuals who become ill during an influenza pandemic and will maintain an antiviral stockpile large enough to treat 25% of the population.

It then went on to say that the stock pile will be complete in 2009.

4. Chapter 10A Equipment and Supply Tools

Page 206

Surgical and procedure mask will be used except N95 Respirators (for use during aerosol generating procedures)

Page 207 of pdf: Footnote

The Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care is continuing to develop a provincial position on personal protective equipment (I.e., masks). In the absence of a provincial position, references to masks and/or respirators in this document should be interpreted broadly (i.e., facial protection).

I see this as a delaying tactic to deflate concernst about the use of surgical mask being inadequate in hospitals during a pandemic.

Page 10–2 or 203 of pdf:

PPE equipment required based on the PIDAC recommendations for infection control for influenza. Note: Other PPE will be required to allow some sectors to maintain current routine practices. For example, Emergency Medical Services (EMS) currently employs an “all hazards” approach when responding to an emergency and will maintain that routine practice during a pandemic. High risk environments, such as testing laboratories, will also continue to need PPE appropriate for their activities.

Notice that it’s based on Influenza, not based on Pandemic Influenza. As well, PPE is to maintain current routine practices i.e. there is no more PPE for pandemic than routine status.


Summary comment:

While John Barry’s 1918 pandemic book/quote was borrowed for this plan, it’s based on 1968 pandemic and business as usual.

Special workers e.g. HCW, electricity, water treatment, police, will not get Tamiflu ahead of the public.

Let’s see how long we have electricity, how many police officers decide to stay home to protect their families, and how many health care professionals show up for work.

gharris – at 23:39

YYZ - good comments!! Now, who can we tell them to?! I will apply my tiny brain to this tomorrow - tonight I am so exhausted from cooking and so full of turkey and pumpkin pie I think I cd SIP for six weeks without refilling my tank!!! :-))

10 October 2006

Tom DVM – at 00:02

g. and YYZ. Thanks!!

Tom DVM – at 00:08

By the way, as a practising veterinarian I had a farmer request a newly released vaccine for a herd of young cattle going into a feedlot. To say the end result was not pretty would be an undertatement…I ended up treating most of the cattle for the very disease they were supposed to be vaccinated against…and shortly after the fully tested and introduced vaccine with great fanfare was unceremonously removed from the marketplace…

…the lesson I learned from that day forward was

1) Just because it says vaccine on the bottle, does not mean that it works at all.

2) I did not use newly introduced vaccines until they were proven in the field…that usually took at least two years.

There have been many instances of vaccines that don’t work and vaccines that actually cause the disease that they are supposed to be providing protection against.

A close look at H5N1 in Asia would indicate the same thing is happening there…

…and the same goes for human influenza vaccines…they have to keep changing the story to market them because the previous story often gets proven wrong.

12 October 2006

MaMaat 16:02

A good place to find deals for all manner of products you might be searching for in Canada

http://www.buyandsell.ca/classifieds.php?a=19

I’m using it to find a good used (one I might actually be able to afford:-) wood burning cookstove. Several good leads thus far. I’ve had good luck in the past using this method to find stuff I need.

13 October 2006

gharris – at 20:53

Hi Mama - the queen of all woodburning cookstoves was the Findlay Oval - there is one currently for sale on our local buy/sell (eastern Ontario)for $350 - probably needs reconditioning or new tiles in it if that cheap!! Our neighbours have a gorgeous one restored in their kitchen - looks fab and very efficient - has big hot water reservoir on the side for constant hot water!! They really are terrific if you can find one where you are - would cost the earth to ship I imagine as they are VERY heavy!!

Kleenex – at 21:43

(I am copying this from a comment I made on the “University of Washington….thread)

New here, so hello. This news is disturbing and requires meaningful protest. Go to the link. We in Canada pay for our “medicare” system, through our taxes, so it is not free. No doctor has the right to arbitrarily decide stopping treatment. No doctor should be given that right. I can see very clearly, the cut-off points that would be used in the event of a pandemic when dispensing drugs that are in short supply, let alone the shortage of equipment. How do sick people prepare for a pandemic if they, for example, are having kidney dialysis? Anyway, this article forebodes of unimaginable tragedy in a pandemic but it should certainly not be foreboding of unimaginable tragedy in normal times.

http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2006/10/13/manitoba-physician.html

gharris – at 22:16

Hi Kleenex - Welcome!!! The Manitoba proposal is rather a disturbing prospect - however, in reality doctors make these arbitrary decisions all the time - i.e. I hate to admit that I am still a smoker (tsk tsk!!) - I have already had doctors threaten not to treat my other health problems unless I quit!! Recently when my 93 yr old MIL had a life threatening stroke, her physician had absolutely no problem with the family’s request for ‘no remedial treatment’ (only palliative care requested) - he was glad to get the bed back!! Sent her back to the seniors home with Rx for morphine. That those HCW in New Orleans are being prosecuted for incidents during Katrina is a travesty - but these are all very personal decisions based on personal morals and ethics. I think our govt will decide who gets treatment/prophylaxis/vax during a pandemic and sorry to say, it wont be you and I in any event!! But I do share your concern and thanx for bringing the issue to this thread!! Looking forward to hearing more from you!

17 October 2006

gharris – at 01:14

Went to a ‘Town Hall’ meeting tonight - opportunity to quiz local politicians on issues in advance of our local municipal elections coming up. I asked if Council will be taking a leadership role in helping citizens to prepare for possible extended period of SIP i.e. instructions for stockpiling preps etc. The Mayor responded that they are following directives from regional Health Unit and anyway this may not happen. Dont worry Be Happy!!! arrrggghhh!!!

18 October 2006

gharris – at 01:00

bump - all you canucks in bed already?? I dont blame you - I’m going now too!!! The cat has warmed up my side of the bed for me!

Tom DVM – at 20:00

Hi g. Isn’t it amazing how these meetings get arranged and happen without any of us knowing.

From: The Peterborough Examiner Wed. Oct 18…Session warns public to be ready for pandemic.

“The question is no longer if it will hit, but when, say researchers with the World Health Organization.”….this is news to me…all I have heard is Dick Thompson downplaying all the issues…and his old 2–7 million mortality worldwide.

The City of Peterborough and surrounding county well more than 75,000 inhabitants.

“More than 600 will most likely have to be hospitalized; 151 will most likely die.”…Dr. Gary Humphreys - Medical Officer of Health.

Tom DVM – at 20:05

I forgot to mention that even if you count a 33% infection rate which you can…if you can explain to me why the other 67% wouldn’t get it…

…sorry…let me start again…even with a 33% infection rate…151 deaths would equal a CFR of… wait for it….6%.

Tom DVM – at 20:06

Sorry again…CFR = .6%

19 October 2006

gharris – at 15:11

http://tinyurl.com/tzhxx Tues Oct 17 2006

In the event of a widespread influenza outbreak, the local health unit is ready.

While it may not be on par with the Peterborough County-City Health Unit which is holding a pandemic Influenza Public Information Session this evening, Younous Manjoura, pandemic planning manager with the Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge District Health Unit assures an emergency response plan is in place.

“Our plan is on paper and it’s still evolving,” said Mr. Manjoura who’s been working on the plan for more than a year. “It’s a work in progress.”

At this time, however it’s not ready to be shared with the public.

COMMENT: I guess that’s why Mr Manjoura does not respond to taxpayer’s queries - he must be a VERY slow writer!! By the time he gets the damn thing out we will all be DEAD!! It is obvious from TOM DVMs math above that HKPRHU is still working with old figures - they should check out the NEW pandemic plan from Ontario Govt - http://tinyurl.com/bqq5u - at least they are ‘inching up’ the possible death stats from previous versions.

gharris – at 23:59

bump - for visibility

21 October 2006

gharris – at 01:42

bump! Things that go bump in the night!!

Ottawa Guy – at 14:11

Yesterday, I attended a seminar with Dr. James Young of SARS and Swiss Air fame. If I were to encapsulate his message into a few brief words, they would be: pandemic flu will cause an increase in flu cases in Canada but not much more or, to put it in simper words, pandemic flu = really bad flu season.

Ottawan – at 14:42

Ottawa Guy - Did Dr. Young discuss how he arrived at this conclusion?

Tom DVM – at 15:27

Ottawa Guy. Thanks.

Ottawan. Hi…it’s good to meet you.

I am surprised that Dr. Young would have come to this conclusion, based on what I observed during SARS.

Do you have an e mail address for him?…maybe he should spend a little time on flu wiki learning the facts…like the rest of us.

Ottawa Guy – at 16:22

Sorry about the delay with my reply (out grocery shopping).

Ottawan – at 14:42

No, no explanations other than using current gov’t numbers. Ottawan - are you employed with the gov’t? A similar pandemic communication seminar will be held in Ottawa in December, info here:

http://www.summersdirect.com/pdf/A-Pandemic_Workshops_Ottawa.pdf

Tom,

I was rather disappointed in what he had to say about the risk. The slides of the presentation are available at www.icn-rci.gc.ca however, I’ve been unable to access the site today.

ANON-YYZ – at 18:06

In Canada, lots of money made and to be made by consultants, public relations agencies, main stream media, seminar organizers on how to downplay the risks of a pandemic. The message is consistently that the pandemic flu is no worse than a bad seasonal flu. The government will try to ask the public to operate business as ususal. Should it be a bad pandemic, then the government will blame it on the WHO, the CDC and the medical community for giving bad advice. Clever and shameless.

crfullmoon – at 19:30

Anyone live around the Bay of Fundy ? How’s the real estate market there? (sigh)

crfullmoon – at 19:54

Wonder what happened here; article

…”ST. JOHN’S, N.L. (CP) - A backup system designed to prevent a massive communications outage failed to kick in when a small fire knocked out phone and Internet service to thousands of Newfoundlanders, a Bell Aliant spokeswoman said Saturday.

The utility said it would investigate how a fire confined to a single strand of cable late Friday night could interrupt phone service for 100,000 customers in St. John’s as well as Internet access across the island.

All services were restored early Saturday morning, after the five-hour outage interrupted 911 emergency service, residential lines, cellphones and automated bank machines. Police said it didn’t appear any major emergencies were missed.

Bell Aliant spokeswoman Brenda Reid said the location of the DC power cable that caught fire meant the backup system could not take over, although she didn’t elaborate.

“We do have backup systems and redundant systems - we have one of the most reliable systems in the world,” Reid said in an interview Saturday.

“This particular type of outage is unprecedented, it has not happened before, so we’ll certainly investigate to see what occurred.” …

Ottawa Guy – at 20:06

crfullmoon – at 19:30

Anyone live around the Bay of Fundy ? How’s the real estate market there? (sigh)

Real estate in that area is dirt cheap. The problem is employment.

22 October 2006

Ottawan – at 14:19

Ottawa Guy at 16:22,

I work for the gov’t, but not far enough up the foodchain to get involved with communications planning. Thanks for the links, though.

crfullmoon – at 17:11

Thanks, Ottawa Guy. (Dirt cheap dirt! Woo-hoo!)

01 November 2006

Irene – at 16:10

Is there anyone interested in discussing the issue of personal prepping with a Canadian focus? This on-going thread has moved away from that and I’m not sure if it’s due to lack of interest in the subject or if it’s just kind of confusing to try to discuss personal prepping and the larger community pandemic issues all in one thread.

Tom DVM – at 16:54

Hi Irene. I haven’t seen your name before…so welcome to flu wiki. I know that gharris has been quite busy with one thing and another and it appears that Anon YYZ has been busy too…so I think we are probablly taking a small sabbatical from the Canadian Preppers thread.

Thanks for bringing up the personal prepping. I was discussing with my wife Sue last night, that it is time for us to start prepping. I personally, think that the China Flu could break open at any time…

…so if you have some advice I will most surely read it.

The thread has popped all around the place but I think that is probably a good thing.

Anyway, thanks for commenting.

crfullmoon – at 16:59

it is time for us to start prepping (blink.blink.blink.)

We’re rooting for you, Tom DVM !

(Bye Irene. Just trying not to tear my hair out down here. Sorry.) (Help Tom get priority-prepped. He’s too wise to loose.)

Irene – at 17:38

Tom DVM - I tend to post on the personal prepping threads. :)

I do lurk on the other kinds of threads however - which is why I almost fell over in my chair when I read “I was discussing with my wife Sue last night, that it is time for us to start prepping.” LOL! I’m very glad to finally hear you say those words.

Ottawa Guy – at 17:42

“Tom DVM – at 16:54 Hi Irene. I haven’t seen your name before…so welcome to flu wiki. I know that gharris has been quite busy with one thing and another and it appears that Anon YYZ has been busy too…so I think we are probablly taking a small sabbatical from the Canadian Preppers thread.”

Sabbatical/shmabatical Tom! Hockey season has started! Well, if you are a Sens fan, has it really started? I mean, they are playing like the Maple Leafs: inconsistent and, at times, lousy!

Off subject? Okay then, at the Canadian Superstore Klik brand canned meat (aka Spam) and corned beef on sale for $1.77. Also, Classico speghetti sauce is on for $1.88 a jar. Stock up!

I’m looking at buying a Resolute down filled parka for about $350. It will get pretty cold without any gas this winter! I’m also looking at buying a kerosene heater.

Tom DVM – at 17:54

Hi everyone. Thanks. You’re all the greatest…and as usual, when I start to name names, I forget some.

Irene. I forgot to say that MaMa has also been very busy. I think the last I heard she was headed for the ‘bush’.

Anyway, yes it is time to get prepping. I’m afraid that time is short…but like I said before…we are on nature’s time and I am not quite sure what ‘short’ in natures terms are.

However, pretty much everything is in place for a H5N1 (China Flu) breakout…and as before, I hope I am wrong.

Irene – at 19:44

I’ll just post bits and pieces of info as it occurs to me.

What surprised me most about prepping was how time consuming it is. For food locally, I mainly buy at Superstore, Real Canadian Wholesale Club, Costco and Bulkfoods.

I check every can I buy for expiry date or canning date. It’s amazing how many cans I canned as long as a year ago. Sometimes there can be identical cans sitting side by side - which show canning dates up to 9 months apart. It makes a lot of sense to spend an extra minute or two checking various cans to get the latest dates.

One can code which you might come across applies to Swifts and Maple Leaf canned ham, chicken and turkey operates on the julian calendar. If a can says “est 459 6115″ for example, it means the food was canned on the 115th day of 2006.

Irene – at 19:46

I bought canned cheese and canned butter from MRIDepot using the fluwiki code and posted details of the cost, including shipping and customs handing charges, in the MRIDepot thread. As far as I know, there is no source for canned cheese or canned butter in Canada.

Tom DVM – at 21:10

Irene. Thanks I am a newbie when it comes to prepping. How far out do you normally see expiry dates at the grocery store?

Ottawa Guy – at 21:16

Irene,

Is the powdered skim milk at bulkfoods good value?

Irene – at 23:25

Tom DVM

As a general rule of thumb, canned goods such as soups, stews and vegetables should be eaten within 2 years of the canning date. Campbell’s and some other companies print expiry dates right on their cans in plain English and that also seems to fit within that 2 year time frame.

I notice you can buy Stagg’s chili though that shows an expiry date on the can right now of April 2009.

I’ve bought canned salmon this year which has a printed expiry date of 2011 and seen other cans of salmon this year with a lot closer expiry date.

Here are some links about recommended shelf life for various types of storage foods:

http://www.a1usa.net/gary/expire.html

http://tinyurl.com/n5eue

http://waltonfeed.com/grain/life.html

If a can I purchases doesn’t have an expiry date marked, I use a felt pen to print the purchase date on the bottom of the can.

Oh, and one of the best pieces of advice I’ve read is not to store any food supplies without adding the items to your inventory list - jotting down what the item is, where it is being stored, purchase date and expiry date (if known). I tend to forget what I have stored and consult my computerized inventory list fairly regularly. It’s a lot easier to do that than to physically rummage around the storage areas to see what I have.

Irene – at 23:27

Ottawa Guy,

Ooops, I incorrectly said bulkfoods in my post earlier today. I meant Bulk Barn.

Unfortunately skim milk powder is fairly perishable and doesn’t have a very long shelf life so it’s on my list of things to buy almost at the last minute. I forget the shelf life (less than 6 months I believe), but if you look on the packages in the grocery stores, the expiry date is marked. Crackers are another example of a fairly perishable item that will turn stale.

I spent a couple of hours one day just walking the aisles of a grocery store, reading expiry dates. :)

My focus right now is to stock items which have expiry dates at least 18 months away. I don’t want to have to throw any food away.

If you have the space and the funds, think seriously of buying several months of non-food items, particularly items such as toilet paper and kleenex which you know you would eventually use.

This is the web site for Bulk Barn: http://www.bulkbarn.ca/

They don’t sell on-line, but I really recommend visiting one of their retail outlets if you are close to one. I have several items marked on my almost-last-minute list to buy there, including the unflavored TVP (textured vegetable protein) which is a shelf-stable meat substitute. They carry both the chunks and the granules and it is CHEAP. I’ve tried it and using beef broth to deyhdrate it, it tastes and feels just like ground beef.

For long term storage (5 years minimum) I found what appears to be the only source of #10 Cans of dehydrated foods in Canada - an Alberta company which ships across Canada. I even managed to get a 40% discount. I’ll post about that tomorrow. I’m not used to typing so much at one time.

Tom DVM – at 23:32

Irene. Thanks. Do you know where one can buy bulk sugar…25–50 lbs at a time.

Ottawa Guy. Things have been pretty quiet lately…haven’t heard anything out of Ottawa pertaining to a pandemic. Is there much happening behind the scenes?

Irene – at 23:48

No, sorry Tom, I don’t know. I use about 1 cup of ordinary sugar a year so I haven’t paid any attention to sugar in the stores.

gharris – at 23:50

Hi Tom et al - I am back from my MNR/Queen’s Park presentation and finished my magazine assignments, so now trying to catch up on the wiki! You can buy any amt of any kind of sugar from Bulk Barn - (you might need to take some containers tho - their plastic bags are kinda flimsy) - it is one of my fave food shops! I buy all spices there, tea, coffee beans,dog biscuits, nuts, chocolate, flour, oatmeal, rice, dried beans/peas sugar, grains (barley,try quinoa or couscous (pasta) too!!) the P’boro No Frills is a great place too!! Lots of bargoons on cans - tuna, salmon, bully beef etc! Have a WONDERFUL time and tell us all abt it after!!

Tom DVM – at 23:53

Irene and g. Thanks!!

02 November 2006

Prepping Gal – at 00:00

I’m in Alberta and we don’t have Bulk Barn but I noticed a comment about an Alberta company & #10 cans; I’m curious to know which company you are referring to. How are there prices? Do they sell online only?

My experience with skim milk powder is that it does last a long time. Now it could be because I use it in my coffee mostly but I do buy big bags & these last me at least a year if not 18 months. Never had a problem. I don’t do any special packaging.

03 November 2006

Irene – at 01:16

The company which I purchased the #10 cans in Canada is located in Sherwood Park Alberta. They have a web site but I am not sure the pricing information is up to date:

http://www.dri-harvest.com/index.php

That web site address was posted on an earlier part of this flu wiki thread.

I’m kind of scratching my head over what to say about my dealings this company. It was a confusing experience but I am very happy to have been able to obtain the items I did, particularly the powdered eggs and cheese. The father who seems to be in charge is really nice to talk to and seems very honest but not computer savvy.

The food they sell appears to be canned on their behalf locally. The father told me it wasn’t practical for them to import canned food from the U.S.

The son apparently set the web site up and the father doesn’t appear to ever have visited it. When I was mailing the father payment in June (they don’t take credit cards), I was going to use the PO box listed on the web site. The father said don’t and gave me a street address. He was surprised to learn the PO box address was still on the web site. I just looked now, and it still is listed.

The phone number 1–800–221–8725 is still valid. Often the wife answers the phone with a simple “hello” and she doesn’t seem to have any role in the business.

When I first ordered in June, I telephoned and talked to the father. His business was very busy and we had an interesting conversation about avian flu. When I told him the size of my proposed order, he said that if I increased it to $1,000, he would give me a 40% discount. Of course I jumped at his offer. He then gave me his son’s e-mail address to send the order. The son e-mailed back, attaching an Excel spreadsheet to which he had transferred my order. The Excel spreadsheet was interesting as it listed every item the company sold, along with the current price which at the time was a little different with the web site, on at least one of the items I ordered.

I can’t remember exactly what happened next but I remembered I e-mailed the son back and never got a response. So, I phoned the father to get the shipping charge. The father wasn’t sure what to charge me for shipping. He asked me if I had a shipper. That kind of startled me. I assume he meant that if I had an account with a courier that I could arrange to pay the courier for the shipping. Anyway, I said no I didn’t have a shipper.

So after thinking about it, the father said O.K. - $100 for shipping. I’m in Manitoba. That seemed to be just a guess on his part. I was very surprised he didn’t have scales to weigh packages. That still seemed reasonable considering the discount I was getting.

I mailed a check and received the order via Canada Post very promptly. My first order was for 34 cans. They were packed 6 to a box. The 2 empty spaces in one box were filled with free plastic lids and a very nice free recipe book.

I placed a second order at the end of July. I told the father I put the order on the Excel worksheet form and he told me to mail it to him and he gave me his e-mail address (different than the web site). His e-mail address is lebaron at shaw.ca but I don’t know if he regularly checks it unless he is expecting an e-mail.

This second order didn’t go so smoothly. They were out of stock on 2 items. I received a partial shipment in early August. I received the rest of the shipment just 2 days ago. There were a number of phone calls in between. I was just phoned to check on my order earlier this week, the day before it came ,and talked to the wife. Her husband was in the U.S., presumably on business, and she said that he has been working very long hours with the business.

If anyone plans to deal with the company, I suggest trying to talk with the father on the phone - I’m not sure when he’s back. Also, I’m not sure if he is still offering the discount, particularly since business seems to be overwhelmed with orders right now. If you are located near Sherwood Park Alberta, it may even be possible to pick up an order in person. I won’t list the address here because it wasn’t listed on the web site and it may be a residential address.

04 November 2006

Prepping Gal – at 00:29

Thanks Irene. I did have that website saved but I didn’t want to get into phoning my order in so I hoped they would get the system online. Also I wanted more details then what the website provided. I don’t have the patience you have but I’ll continue to save their website address.

ANON-YYZ – at 00:51

A friend handed me a Government of Ontario pamphlet “What you should know about a flu pandemic.” This is distribited at doctor’s offices. It’s printed in color on 3 sheets doubled-sided 8.5 by 11 and foldered into a 12 page booklet. At the back is the link:

www.health.gov.on.ca/pandemic.

Though no entirely accurate, it is still ‘substantial’ for the lay person who hasn’t heard anything about the pandemic.

There seems to be more mentioning of pandemic or avian flu at both CTV and CBC. I suspect there is more recognition that a pandemic is possible and serious.

ANON-YYZ – at 00:59

gharris and TomDVM

This is near your neck of the woods:

December 12, 2006 - The Health Care Network of Southeastern Ontario, Incident Management Committee presents the Second Annual Southeastern Ontario Emergency Preparedness Symposium. The theme for this one day event is “Managing the Next Moment!” Ambassador Conference Resort, West Central Ballroom, 1550 Princess Street, Kingston Ontario

http://seohealthnet.com/

gharris – at 01:15

Thanx YYZ (how come you are up so late!!!) Kingston a bit far for me - altho my parents live there - may try to get over to visit around the date of that symposium

Sailor – at 12:19

Irene – at 01:16

Hi Irene, Did you by any chance open one of the egg cans and try to use it? I am curious as to the quality of the products that this company is selling. I am thinking of ordering some myself so that is the reason for asking if you have used any of the products. Thanks

Irene – at 14:33

Hi Sailor,

No, unfortunately I haven’t opened any of the cans. They are much too large and although once open the food would probably keep for several months, I know I would probably end up throwing a lot of it away. I’m not much into cooking from scratch - unless I’m forced to of course.

For example, I bought a small package of powdered whole eggs from a local health food store in the summer and haven’t even opened that package yet.

My guess, and I admit it’s just a guess, is that Dri-Harvest obtains their dried foods from the same sources as the U.S. companies selling #10 cans. As a rough guide to can contents I was using this link:

http://waltonfeed.com/self/labels/index.html

I noticed a similarity of terminology. For example, both Dri-Harvest and Walton Feed sell “Fruit Galaxy”.

If you contact Dri-Harvest, you could ask.

05 November 2006

anonymous et al – at 09:42

Good Morning All, Here is an article from the Toronto Sun. (Ask your Dr. for a prescription for an anti-viral) Dr. Allison McGeer, director of infection control at Mt.Sinai hospital in Toronto, is quoted in the article as saying, “ With drug companies ramping up their production of these drugs, the supply problem is less an issue than before. “I think it is now very hard to say to people you should not be doing it at all,” said McGeer, though she cautioned that people need to know how to store these drugs and how to use them properly”.

Just wondering if the medical profession is now changing or has changed their opinion on supplying anti-virals, in advance, to the public. If so, what has made them change their minds?

I’m also posting this on Canadian Preppers 3 thread.

http://www.torontosun.com/Lifestyle/2006/11/05/2242129-sun.html

ANON-YYZ – at 11:15

anonymous et al – at 09:42

Thank you for the story. This is a good trend. We need people in authority speak out to gradually educate the public. It takes time for the public to get it into the conscious mind to take some action. I don’t hear people complaining about fear mongering any more. MSM has also become more educated. Much work is still needed, but this is good.

I hope other provincial authorities will speak out. Most of the public will not act or rush into stockpiling anti-virals, so there won’t be a run. However, individual preparation will no longer be stigmatized, and gradually more will prepare to different degrees, which will help mitigate the effects when a pandemic hits.

naomi – at 21:14

quote: “I think it is now very hard to say to people you should not be doing it at all,” said McGeer, though she cautioned that people need to know how to store these drugs and how to use them properly.

Sorry to be so ignorant here but, what is the appropriate way to store antivirals? And what exactly does she mean by “use them properly”? Is she talking about within the first 48 hours of symptoms appearing or the fact that double or quadruple the dosage is now being used? TIA for your help. :>}

13 November 2006

bluesfan – at 16:16

Have any Canadian preppers located a Canadian source for canned butter and/or cheese? I’ve been scouring various threads here for such info and checked out the Canadian websites that have been posted, but no luck. Also tried a Google search, wasn’t able to obtain any sources there either. Thanks and sorry if I’ve overlooked seeing it here on Fluwiki somewhere.

urdar-Norway – at 18:14

justa thought, is not half Canada french speaking? and you are plentifull of canadians here.. cant you be the languege link needed to get the french onboard on this forum, or a european one?

the absent continental resident in fluforums scares me … :-(

14 November 2006

gharris – at 10:44

Hi Urdar Good Idea!! I havent noticed many (or any) posters from Quebec on the Wiki - although we have two official languages in Canada, it is nowhere near an even 50/50 split between francophones and anglophones here - most french speaking folks live in Quebec, the maritime provinces and fewer in Manitoba and Ontario - virtually none elsewhere in the country - Perhaps someone lurking from Quebec will be encouraged by your post to communicate in French to people in France.

15 November 2006

anonymous – at 11:17

Are there enough readers from Nova Scotia to have their own thread? (saw one for Ontario)

gharris – at 11:59

all you have to do is start one!! Go ahead!! Good idea!!

ANON-YYZ09 December 2006, 23:56

Canadian Federal gov’t releases latest pandemic plan

posted comments in new forum - because it’s easier to search in future.

http://tinyurl.com/ymu6sy

MaMa10 December 2006, 23:42

Ontario: Province creating own centre for infectious disease control in wake of SARS

TORONTO (CP) - Ontario is creating a centre for disease control so it can be better prepared for another SARS outbreak or flu pandemic, The Canadian Press has learned.

The provincial government is set to introduce legislation Tuesday that would create the Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion, roughly similar to the Centers for Disease Control in the United States, government sources say.

The arm’s-length agency will research infectious diseases and could be called upon to help in a public health emergency like a disease outbreak.

The centre would also be responsible for health promotion and environmental health to reduce the potential for a public health emergency.

“While we hope we never face an outbreak or public health emergency, we have to be prepared,” a government source said. “By bringing together experts to focus on health research, Ontario families will be better protected against future outbreaks and emergencies.”

Details of the centre - including a budget and location - still have to be finalized. The government hopes to pass legislation establishing the centre by the spring.

If the legislation passes, Ontario will be one of the few provinces with its own centre of disease control. British Columbia has one based at the University of British Columbia, while Quebec also has its own public health institute…”

http://tinyurl.com/yfxkf5

also posted on the new forum here

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