Yesterdays news thread here: http://tinyurl.com/revk3
The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Oct 7/06
“Recent studies have revealed that cats can contract the avian influenza virus and that there is no evidence that migratory birds are responsible for the spread of the disease.
‘’‘A study conducted by the Indonesian Environment Information Center (PILI) in Yogyakarta found that stray cats had caught the H5N1 virus through contact with infected poultry at traditional markets.
“We are positive that cats can have the virus, although it is yet to be proven that they can transmit the virus to other animals or humans,” PILI director Iwan Setiawan said Thursday after a discussion on the role of migratory birds in the spreading the virus.’‘’
The discussion, which was held by National Geographic Indonesia, concluded that migratory birds were not to blame for the movement of bird flu.
A vet from the Bogor Institute of Agriculture, I Wayan Teguh Wibawa, said separate studies had shown there was no proof anywhere in the world that migratory birds carried the virus.
Studies of migratory birds in Malaysia, China and Australia that have been carried out over the past six years have shown no migrant birds in the three regions had the H5N1 virus, he said.
Wayan, who is also a member of the National Commission for Bird Flu, said that the poultry trade was the most likely cause of the spread of the virus to 29 of Indonesia’s 33 provinces. So far 69 people have been infected with the virus and 52 have died.
“It is very important to vaccinate poultry and keep home environments free of poultry feces,” he said.
A recent serology test conducted on 20 chickens around the houses of victims in Bandung showed that the virus could also be transmitted by healthy chickens.
PILI began last year the country’s first study of the possible role of migratory birds in the spread of bird flu. The study, which is taking place in Yogyakarta and Indramayu in West Java, is still in progress. The group plans to extend the study to several other coastal regions in Java, where about 2 million birds from northern Indonesia usually come for mating season.”
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailnational.asp?fileid=20061007.H06&irec=5
Recombinomics Commentary October 7, 2006
A study conducted by the Indonesian Environment Information Center (PILI) in Yogyakarta found that stray cats had caught the H5N1 virus through contact with infected poultry at traditional markets.
“The above comments provide additional evidence implicating an alternative source of H5N1 human infections in Indonesia. Recently, Indonesia summarized the results of poultry tests by a WHO affiliated lab in Australia. Concerns had been voiced in an H5N1 meeting in Jakarta in June because the sequences from the vast majority of human cases on Java did not match the poultry H5N1 collected between 2003 and 2005. Consequently, 91 poultry samples were sent to Australia for virus isolation and sequencing. The samples were from collections between September 2005 and March 2006 and failed to match Java poultry isolates with most of the sequences from patients.
All but one of the human isolates from patients on Java had a novel cleavage site, RESRRKKR, as well as a number of associated changes in all 8 gene segments that readily distinguished the human sequences from the poultry sequence (see green sequences in lower branch). One duck from Indramayu had the novel cleavage site, but that duck isolates had additional changes, including a silent change in the cleavage site, which was found in only a small subset of human isolates. The vast majority of human isolates, including those from Indramayu, failed to match the duck sequences. Two matching sequences were found in chickens in central Sumatra, but the match failure on Java, coupled with the almost universal matching of human sequences, including the first sequence isolate in July 2005 as well as isolates from a wide range of geographical locations, including East Java, suggested human infections were largely due to H5N1 in a reservoir other than poultry.
The only match on Java of the human sequences was from a throat swab of a cat. A/feline/Indonesia/CDC1/2006(H5N1), from Jakarta on January 22, 2006. H5N1 has also been detected in swine in Indonesia, but the swine sequences, including the HA cleavage site, did not match the human sequences. The discovery of more H5N1 in cats in Indonesia raises the possibility that the cats are also in contact with an alternate reservoir.
Sequence data on H5N1 from cats, and “infected poultry in traditional markets”, including those in and around Jakarta, where most of the reported human cases have been located, would help resolve the role of cats in H5N1 transmission. “
Oregon, USA
Pandemic flu forum on tap Monday at library
ROSEBURG: A forum, “Pandemic Flu: What Communities Need to Know” is scheduled for 8 a.m. to noon Monday at the Douglas County Library, Ford Community Room, 1409 N.E. Diamond Lake Blvd.
Dr. Jim Shames, health officer for Jackson and Josephine Counties, will present information on seasonal flu, bird flu and pandemics. The forum includes interactive roundtable discussions for individuals, businesses, health care organizations, service providers, schools, faith-based organizations and others. Free to the public.
Information: 440–3563.
Azerbaijan
AZERBAIJANI PREMIER MEETS WITH IEB DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL
Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Arhur Rasizade met October 7 with Nikolay Belev, deputy Director General of the International Epizootic Bureau (IEB).
Artur Rasizade thanked IEB for assistance in prevention of the avian influenza in Azerbaijan. He found a need to raise the public awareness about the prophylaxis of the bird flu and other diseases transmitted from animals to humans.
West Virginia, USA
BLUEFIELD — Although 20 cases of influenza have already been reported in Mercer County, officials are still awaiting the arrival of their first shipment of the flu vaccine.
“We are already into the second or third week of October, and we’ve already had some cases of the flu,” Melody Rickman, nurse director of the Mercer County Health Department, said. “We’ve had 20 cases reported in the last two weeks of influenza A. Twenty isn’t a lot of cases. But it’s a little early to what we normally see.”
Rickman said officials are still waiting on their first shipment of the flu vaccine.
[snip]
The Kmart pharmacy at the Big Kmart in Bluefield has already announced a flu-shot clinic in Bluefield, scheduled for Friday, Oct. 27, at 10 a.m. at the store on Cumberland Road. The flu shot will be provided to Kmart customers for $25. Pneumonia shots also will be available for $40.
Nigeria
Bird flu: Govt suspends compensation to farmers
The federal government has suspended the payment of compensation to poultry farmers affected by the outbreak of bird flu in the country.
The Director, Livestock and Pest Control at the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Dr. Junaid Maina, made this known in an interview with newsmen in Abuja, Thursday.
He said that the ministry had cash flow problems and that over N50 million compensation was yet to be paid to the affected farmers.
[snip]
He said that as at August, a total of 915,650 birds had been destroyed, while N107 million had been paid as compensation.
Dada said that by the end of July 2006, only 14 states and FCT had reported cases of avian flu in a total of 40 local government areas.
He said that the disease was no longer active in the country except in Lagos State where a confirmed outbreak was reported last month.
World is better equipped for flu crises, expert says
Iowa City, Ia. - The world is much better prepared to combat possible pandemics now than it was during previous waves of influenza that killed millions of people, the nation’s top expert said here Friday.
Dr. Nancy Cox, a native Iowan who leads U.S. preparations for a possible flu crisis, noted several key scientific advances since three deadly flu pandemics hit in the early and mid-20th century.
[snip]
In an interview after her lecture, Cox said health leaders must balance the need to portray the seriousness of the threat with concerns about needlessly panicking the public.
Comment
Here you have the problem at the CDC in a nutshell: overconfidence, arrogance and a patronizing attitude.
We already know this, but just confirmation,
Indonesia
“The Team of Veterinary Faculty at Udayana University found evidence that avian influenze (AI) virus has infected pigs in Bali. Wider scale research is now in the process. AI finding on pigs was due to some college students research which diagnosed several ill pigs from May to June, 2006. Out of 20 pigs, two were positively infected by H5N1 virus. The pigs are in Gianyar and Tabanan,- said I Gusti Ngurah Mahardika, a professor at the faculty, Friday (6/10). The virus grows in ill pigs and the pigs cannot be cured by a series of medical treatment. After surgery, there are red blotches on the spleen. By imono histokimia technology, the red blotches are viruses on the pigs tissue. However, H5N1 virus was not found in the animal’s tissue. ‘Probably the virus only passed by, or is called an ‘opportunistic’ virus,- said Mahardika. The finding has not yet been publicized as scientific study, but it has been conveyed to the Bali Breeding Service as a warning. Virus contagion, according to Mahardika, is likely because with the pattern of chicken and duck breeding, the animals are free to enter pig stalls. In Bali, 900,000 pigs live side by side with other cattle. “
Fiji
“More cases of influenza are being reported in the north as the incidents of typhoid have fallen. Northern Health Services Doctor Ami Chandra said the recent rain was to blame for many people developing headache, fever and running nose. He said cases of diarrhoea had also dropped from 50 per day to at least 10 compared to the past few weeks. Dr Chandra said 190 confirmed cases of typhoid had been treated so far and the numbers were declining every month. He said at least 20 cases were treated each month since the beginning of the year but the number had dropped to approximately 15. Dr Chandra said people living in villages and settlements were receptive to the campaign program. He said patients suffering with influenza were also expected to reduce in a few days. He said the epidemic started in Viti Levu a few weeks ago and the movement of people had spread the virus.”
Spain -Possible avian flu case detected in natural park near Valencia
“A laboratory in Algete (Madrid) is investigating a possible case of avian flu after a dead duck showing similar symptoms was found in the Albufera natural park south of Valencia.
Preliminary reports indicate that the dead duck did not have the deadly H5N1 strain of the virus, but a 10km security perimeter has been set up as a security measure…
Although this appears to be a false alarm, a dead bird found in Salburua marshes near Vitoria in the Basque country last July tested positive for the deadly strain, becoming the first, and only case detected in Spain to date. “
HIGHLY RECOMMENDED free videocast from NIH:
Oct 5, Dr Jeffery Taubenberger delivered the annual NIAID Kinyoun Lecture on Influenza Viruses: Past and Future Threats. Dr. Joseph Kinyoun is considered the founder of NIH from its origin as the Laboratory of Hygiene, established in NY in 1887. NIAID has an annual lectureship named after him and it is a big honor to be asked to give it.
The videocast for the lecture is available here.
For those of you who are techno-phobic, here’s the link to test if your PC has the required componente to play it. Go to this link and click on ‘test plugin’. You may need to download and install the free Real Player.
Colorado, USA
What happens when disaster strikes Aspen?
You wake up one morning, glance at the front page or turn on the TV and it’s everywhere: Bird flu has struck. It’s a worldwide pandemic and nowhere is safe.
What now?
Everything stops. Airports are closed. Schools shut their doors. Business comes to a halt - some stores are even boarded up to prevent looting.
Do you have enough food in the cupboard? How about drinking water? Should you go to work? What would you do?
“Your government is working hard on things you don’t even think about,” said Ellen Anderson, the emergency management coordinator for Pitkin County. “But the other link is self-preparedness.”
[snip]
Dr. Morris Cohen, public health officer for Pitkin County, said a pandemic of avian influenza is his top concern.
[snip]
A full-blown pandemic would likely constitute a state or national emergency. In that event, Cohen would recommend communitywide isolation. All nonessential businesses would close, and residents would be asked to stay in their homes and avoid contact with others. Compliance would be voluntary. School would be canceled, grocery stores closed. There would likely be some relief efforts and food supplies from government sources and the Red Cross, and gloves and masks made available, but citizens would be left to their own devices.
[snip]
Aspen will look like “offseason plus” during a hunker-down scenario for avian flu, Cohen said. Citizens should be ready to stay in their homes for as long as a month or six weeks.
[snip]
Essential workers, like those who provide electric power, sanitation and emergency services, would be encouraged to continue working. Those who continue working would wear masks and maintain a 3-foot distance between one another. Cohen said that no one would be coerced to work, but every effort would be made to maintain vital services.
Like planning for anticipated problems during Y2K, hunkering down for bird flu would have two scenarios: “lights on” and “lights off.” Loss of power in winter would mean loss of heat for many, even loss of gas pumps needed to keep police and emergency vehicles on the road.
“Your home is the safest place,” said Lisa Robbiano, the current director of the Community Health Services, a nonprofit public health nursing service. Robbiano heads the county’s pandemic flu incident management team. She said some towns are hiring special managers for just this kind of hunker-down scenario.
[snip]
The city of Aspen is easy to quarantine, Cohen said, because there are only two ways into town, via Highway 82. The east and west entrances to Aspen, Cohen said, could easily be cordoned off with vehicles; there could be a triage trailer and checks for delivery trucks.
[snip]
The avian flu team recommends that people assemble enough food, water and supplies for one month (see related article). In the event of “quarantine isolation,” citizens would be on their own, behind closed doors and forced to make do with what is in their homes.
[snip]
In your home, Anderson said, you need enough supplies to remain self-sufficient - with or without power - for about one month.
Dr. Cohen reminds folks to get their flu shot. Locally, there will be three flu clinics. The morning of Nov. 3 is the Senior Health Fair at Aspen Valley Hospital from 8:30 to 10:30. On Nov. 6 from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. and again on Nov. 9 from 2 p.m. (until supplies run out) there will be a flu immunization clinic at Health and Human Services (next to AVH) for all ages. The cost for a flu shot is $20.
Comment
This is a terrific article. At least some counties in Colorado are doing very serious planning. Good for them.
Re “Spain -Possible avian flu case detected in natural park near Valencia”, more news in Spanish here. It seems to be low path. “Estos casos ni siquiera requieren comunicación a la UE”, comentaron desde el departamento que dirige Elena Espinosa. Meaning “these cases (low path) don’t even have to be communicated to the European level”.
http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/csr/data/data_Graphs.htm now does NOT show the “cases and deaths in each age group” chart. It now shows a copy of the Confirmed Cases table - with countries sorted alphabetically of course. I hope they will put the other graph back!
And their Confirmed Cases table has 252 where WHO says 251. Talk about speak with one voice ;)
Sorry - read the wrong table. It’s 252. Our table is being updated … now!
(I think percentages haven’t changed - how we should value the people who update tables by hand!)
Bird Flu Meeting Brings World’s Top Influenza and Waterfowl Authorities to the Table
Memphis, October 6, 2006 - Officials from Ducks Unlimited (DU) and the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS) met today with Robert Webster, PhD, at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital to discuss the latest developments in bird flu research.
“Dr. Webster is the world’s leading bird flu authority,” Young continued. “DU is the world’s largest waterfowl conservation group. And the Fish and Wildlife Service is conducting some of the first comprehensive sampling for the flu of its kind. It only makes sense to get the three groups together to discuss where we are and what we know about this virus.”
Several key points emerged from the meeting. Most important is the virus hasn’t been found in the Americas.
Hall says some low pathogenic H5N1 flu has shown up, but that is normal.
Dr. Webster agreed, saying that the low pathogenic H5N1 strain is not uncommon in waterfowl, and does not cause illness in humans.
“People have got to understand that it’s out there, and will likely show up throughout the season,” he said. “The public should not be worried when that happens.
US ready for bird flu, others ‘less so’
October 6, 2006, Washington DC - US preparations against a possible outbreak of the deadly form of the H5N1 avian flu virus are solid, but other countries may not be as ready, a US health safety official warned on Thursday.
“We’re … close to the state-of-the-art in the United States with preparations and strong biosecurity measures,” said Ambassador John Lange, the State Department’s special representative on avian and pandemic influenza.
“Over the years our diagnostics have become quicker … we know that they work,” she said.
She said poultry companies and agriculture officials were now working with law enforcement and emergency coordinators to plan a response to a possible outbreak.
UK: Flu pandemic exercise takes shape By Andrew Jack in Londonand Andrew Hill in Paris / Financial Times
Published: October 7 2006 03:00 http://tinyurl.com/ngh7x
A “real time” simulation exercise is being drawn up by the government that will pull in all parts of the public sector to test the country’s readiness for a flu pandemic.
Exercise “Winter Willow” will take place over at least three weeks from late January and involve officials from cabinet level down to individual health trusts, the police and education authorities across the UK.
There is growing concern over the likely emergence of a lethal new flu strain, which could result in as many as 1m deaths and 26m hospitalisations in England and Wales alone.
<snip>
Government guide-lines warn that companies and other employers should plan for absenteeism at the peak of the pandemic averaging 15 per cent of their staff, rising to twice that number for small crews of workers.
Policymakers hope to minimise the economic disruption of the pandemic and have dismissed calls to make preparations to close borders and stop transport. They are likely to recommend school closures to help reduce infection, however.
Whereas previous simulations have typically lasted only one or two days and involved a small number of high-level officials or emergency staff in a single region, Winter Willow is designed to test how the entire public sector would react throughout the duration of a pandemic “wave”.
Strategic corporate sectors, such as energy and banking, will also participate and the scenarios tested in the exercise will then be made available to othercompanies so they can run them to test their own preparedness.
Speaking at a business seminar in Paris yesterday, David Nabarro, the United Nations’ influenza co-ordinator, said that companies internationally had made important strides to prepare for a pandemic in recent months. He stressed though that they now needed to launch joint simulation exercises with the public sector, voluntary organisations and the media.
He said: “In my experience, the corporate sector has recognised that this is a serious risk and is therefore investing time, energy and some funding in preparing for business continuity, in preparing for a pandemic, and in considering how it can contribute to collective security in the event a pandemic occurs.”
Winter Willow will test draft changes to the department of health’s current pandemic preparation plan and should lead to a revised version being issued next spring.
Final tests confirm bird flu strain in Montana:USDA final round of tests on wild ducks in Montana confirmed the birds tested positive for the low-pathogenic H5 avian influenza virus, the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Interior said on Saturday. …
Earlier tests released on September 21 had indicated the H5 and N1 subtypes in the bird samples.
“Because these rapid screening tests are highly sensitive, it is not uncommon to have positive results for a specific subtype on the initial screen test and yet not be able to isolate a virus of that subtype” through additional tests, the departments said in a statement.
I would like to express my GRATITUDE to everybody who keeps posting new information on this thread. Thank you, thank you!
Article from Fort Wayne Newspaper: Pandemic flu: A guide for families. Read here: http://tinyurl.com/fsy3g
Commentary
Mammalian H5N1 Evolution in Indonesia Recombinomics Commentary October 7, 2006 - http://tinyurl.com/mmx3g
The recent announcements of H5N1 bird flu in cats in Indonesia, coupled with results from expanded sequencing of poultry strongly signal the existence of a separate mammalian H5N1 reservoir in Indonesia that is responsible for the vast majority of human cases.
This separate reservoir creates significant problems, because most of the attention has focused on infected poultry, and the mammalian reservoir has been significantly under investigated and under reported.
Therefore, a review of the evolution of this mammalian reservoir is useful. Although Indonesia did not acknowledge H5N1 infections until 2004, the first isolates were from birds in 2003. Sequence analysis of the 2003 and 2004 isolates indicated the H5N1 was Clade 2 and had a number of genetic markers that were specific for Indonesia.
The first human case was reported in July of 2005, and the sequence of the isolate, A/Indonesia/5/2005 had the Indonesia specific markers, but also had a number of unique polymorphisms, including one that created a novel HA cleavage site, RESRRKKR. However, the second human isolate, A/Indonesia/6/2005 had the more common HA cleavage site, RERRRKKR, and was similar to bird isolates. Subsequent human isolates in 2005 had the novel cleavage site, but several had an additional silent change, so although the cleavage site matched the first sequence at the protein level, there were a number of changes at the nucleotide level that divided the sequences with the novel cleavage site into two groups.
However, as the number of sequences increased in early 2006, it became increasingly clear that the human sequences were separating from the poultry sequences, all of which had the common bird cleavage site. The first match of the human sequences was from H5N1 from a throat swab of a cat in Indramayu near a residence were two siblings died from H5N1 infections. The sequence of the cat isolate not only matched the more recent human sequences, but was very close to the sequences of the isolates from the two siblings, A/Indonesia/283H/2006 and A/Indonesia/286H/2006, as well as other human isolates from Indramayu, A/Indonesia/292H/2006 and A/Indonesia/304H/2006. New isolates in 2006 collected from patients in East and West Java were sequenced and all were matches of more recent sequences such as the four human and one cat isolate from Indramayu.
In May of 2006 however, there was a new cluster in the Karo regency in north Sumatra. This outbreak was the largest to date and involve secondary and tertiary transmissions of H5N1. Consequently a meeting was call by WHO and consultants in Jakarta in June. Included in the presentation was a phylogenetic tree that summarized the H5N1 Indonesian isolates as of June 12, 2006.
The tree, which had the human sequences in green and the Karo cluster shaded in pink, clearly showed the match problem. All of the sequences with the novel cleavage site were on the lower portion of the tree and there were no poultry sequences on these two lower branches. Moreover, all of the recent human sequences from Java were on the lowest branch, which was even further from the poultry isolates. Thus, the human isolates were evolving away from the poultry isolates, suggesting the existence of a separate mammalian reservoir.
However, all of the human isolates were from July, 2005 or later, while most of the bird isolates were from earlier dates. Therefore 91 samples were schedule for shipment to Australia for virus isolation and sequencing. The samples were from infections between September, 2005 and March, 2006.
As sequences from these more recent and geographically dispersed isolates began to be published, it was becoming increasingly clear that the vast majority of the human infections on Java were not from domestic poultry. Each human sequence mapped to the lower portion of the tree and which was more distinct from the bird sequences.
The second set of new bird sequences included an isolate with the novel cleavage site. It was from a duck on Indramayu isolated in 2006. However, that isolate match the upper branch of the human sequences, which were composed of six isolates from three patients in 2005. Thus, although every human isolate in 2006 was matching the lower branch, the one duck sequence matched the upper branch.
The third set of poultry sequence had two matched with the lower branch. However, the two matches were from chickens in central Sumatra from 2005. Thus, none of the poultry isolates matched the lower human branch, while all human isolates, as well as the cat isolate, matched the lower human branch.
These data again supported a separate reservoir for the human sequences, and the only matches on Java were from the one cat, and all human isolates. The recent announcement indicates more H5N1 has been detected in cats, but the sequences of those isolates have not been released. Swine H5N1 sequences have been reported, but none match the human sequences.
The match failures pose a major problem because testing of humans is largely limited to patients how have been near dead or dying poultry. However, the poultry association has not been linked to the human infections, so an expanded testing of patients with symptoms is warranted. Similarly, more sequencing of H5N1 from other reservoirs is warranted by the match failures between mammalian and avian sequences.
That was me at anonymous – at 13:21.
Comment: Dr. Niman states here that the Indonesian pig sequences do not match the human sequences any more than the bird sequences do. He has also stated previously that the rat/mice sequences are also not similar to those of the humans and cats.
I’ve copied the last three posts over to today’s news thread.
Closing this.